Dr. Daniel Pipes of the Middle East Forum joins us to talk about the current state of affairs in the region, including the recent assassination of Iranian leader Ismail Haniyan, and what it means for the possibility of WWIII.
00:02:40.280You know, there is absolutely a hot war going on between Russia and Ukraine.
00:02:45.520But I'm of the belief that it is unlikely to engulf the world.
00:02:49.860I think even though NATO is involved, they're being careful to keep it in the theater.
00:02:54.020But I am worried about the Middle East, partly because I believe that the United States under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are, frankly, passive aggressive towards Israel and sympathetic to Iran.
00:03:06.440Can you give me a sense of what's going on in the Middle East?
00:03:11.480Help me out because your sources and your understanding of that region is far deeper than mine.
00:03:16.160Is the world at risk of a larger war in the Middle East?
00:04:35.540But I'm probably not inclined to say that it's World War III potential.
00:04:41.100As we've seen in the last few weeks, the Iranians have been careful about responding to, presumably, the Israeli execution of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31st.
00:04:56.900They have been very competent at sabotage and low-intensity conflict.
00:05:03.880They're not so good at direct conventional warfare, and they've been cautious about engaging in that with Israel, much less the United States.
00:05:11.920So it's dangerous, but I don't know that it's more dangerous than Ukraine or Taiwan.
00:05:20.220You know, you mentioned the assassination of the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, who is typically based, if I'm not mistaken, he was based in Qatar.
00:05:32.020And so that's quite a bold move, if it indeed was the Israelis, who I'm sure it was.
00:05:38.500Typically, Iran strikes back in some ways, in some way.
00:05:42.560When Donald Trump eliminated a senior military commander named Soleimani, the Iranians fought, fired back.
00:05:50.100But it was it felt like it was sort of a show for domestic consumption.
00:05:54.060Iran has to sort of show its people, I think, that it has some self-respect and won't accept an assassination of an ally on their own turf.
00:06:04.080I don't think that's come yet, or maybe it has in the form of a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv the other day.
00:06:10.360But do you feel like another shoe is about to drop?
00:06:12.660I noticed a few weeks ago a whole bunch of Western airlines canceled their commercially scheduled flights to Israel.
00:06:20.900It felt like the region was battening down the hatches for war.
00:06:24.120Is Iran going to punch back for that assassination, do you think?
00:06:27.620Well, in one way, the anticipation, the fear in Israel of such a response is in itself the punishment.
00:06:37.500But it is three weeks, and there has been no striking large-scale retaliation by the mullahs in Tehran.
00:06:47.560I'm inclined to think the likelihood declines as time goes by.
00:06:53.100The Iranian regime itself has said that it depends on an agreement in Gaza.
00:06:59.900If there is an agreement, they won't respond.
00:07:52.960And the main problem, I think, for Israel is the PR problem of the inevitable casualties of a civilian population that is being used as human shields.
00:08:04.420But that said, I think we have to note that Israel perhaps could have done this months ago were it not being constantly restrained by the United States, demanding a ceasefire, demanding a halt.
00:08:18.740I think that the fact that Israel has allowed this to drag on has become part of the problem.
00:08:26.600It has emboldened not just Hamas in Gaza, but it's emboldened anti-Semites around the world.
00:08:33.400If they were to snuff out Hamas totally, like the Red Army snuffed out Berlin under Hitler, if they had that bunker moment where Hitler killed himself, if Sinwar were to die in Gaza, I think that would deflate these folks who are hoping against hope that this will be a Palestinian uprising that will lead to the destruction of Israel.
00:08:56.340And I think it would deflate some of the anti-Semitism around the world.
00:09:00.100I actually think that Israel's slow pace, which I attribute to the Americans, has been their worst strategic error so far.
00:09:08.500As the author of the recently published book, Israel Victory, I could hardly agree with you more that the slow pace has been a very great error.
00:09:18.160However, I do disagree with you, Israel, on the cause of that.
00:09:24.220And there's a tendency for friends of Israel to blame the Americans or other allies of Israel for the problems, for the mistakes of Israel.
00:10:39.440Could I just put it in a larger context?
00:10:41.640I think the Israeli security establishment has been brilliant when it comes to states, be it the Arab states, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, the three countries defeated in the Six-League War, or Iran or other states, Iraq, Sudan, Libya.
00:11:00.680But it has been pretty much incompetent when it comes to the Palestinians or other sub-state actors like Hezbollah.
00:11:08.300It has allowed 100,000, 200,000 missiles and rockets to go to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
00:11:17.340So, the vaunted Israeli security establishment deserves its high reputation when it comes to Entebbe, when it comes to the Six-Day War, when it comes to dealing with foreign governments.
00:11:33.320It has not done well when it comes to the Palestinians.
00:11:43.500I don't think even before they threw Joe Biden out so unceremoniously, I don't think even back then people thought that Joe Biden was the decider.
00:11:56.320He would be clear and coherent for – it was measured in minutes, not hours.
00:12:33.180And he has taken a number of decisive steps.
00:12:37.120I mean, going to Israel a few days after October 7th, when Israel is in a state of war, that's not something that was programmed by someone else, not by his wife, not by his Secretary of State.
00:12:49.640He pretty clearly decided to go there in an act of solidarity.
00:12:53.080Now, the problem for Biden has been – and I do think Biden is still the key factor here, though I agree with you.
00:13:02.940His problem has been that he has an old-fashioned democratic affection for Israel, dating back 50-plus years.
00:13:11.920But his party, the younger people, the activists, despise Israel.
00:13:19.880So on the one hand, he has a certain lingering affection.
00:13:23.040On the other hand, political realities, and especially the fourth coming election in November, require him to pull back.
00:13:29.980So he has been on the horns of a dilemma, and those around him who have strong points of view have been pushing, especially the anti-Israel caucus, which is, as time goes on, stronger and stronger.
00:13:42.380Though I do wish to point out that the platform of the Democratic Party, which has just been passed at the convention, is quite pro-Israel.
00:13:53.160These tensions are not completely resolved in favor of the anti-Israel forces.
00:13:59.740But the lingering – you know, Charles Schumer is not what I'd call a great, you know, show mayor, a great protector of Israel.
00:14:07.400But he, like Biden, he has a longstanding affection for Israel, and he is not anti-Israel.
00:14:15.640He has rather dubious ideas about how to solve the problem there, but he's not anti-Israel.
00:14:22.440And the elders of the party, like Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, are still the key figures.
00:14:28.640And the change might come, might come imminently should Kamala Harris become president, but it's not quite there yet.
00:14:39.400You know, I remember a few months ago, there was this astonishing speech or statement, rather, made by Schumer where he effectively called for a kind of – I'm going to call it a soft coup against Netanyahu.
00:14:55.280I've just never seen a senator in the United States call for the replacement of the democratically elected prime minister of another democracy before.
00:15:07.780I have known Prime Minister Netanyahu for a very long time.
00:15:11.600While we have vehemently disagreed on many occasions, I will always respect his extraordinary bravery for Israel on the battlefield as a younger man.
00:15:20.440I believe in his heart he has his highest priority, as is the security of Israel.
00:15:28.560However, I also believe Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take the precedence over the best interests of Israel.
00:15:41.980He has put himself in coalition with far-right extremists like Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gavir, and as a result, he has been too willing to tolerate the civilian toll in Gaza, which is pushing support for Israel worldwide to historic lows.
00:16:00.540Israel cannot survive if it becomes a pariah.
00:16:04.300As a lifelong supporter of Israel, it has become clear to me the Netanyahu coalition no longer fits the needs of Israel after October 7th.
00:16:17.740The world has changed radically since then, and the Israeli people are being stifled right now by a governing vision that has stuck in the past.
00:16:29.320At this critical juncture, I believe a new election is the only way to allow for a healthy and open decision-making process about the future of Israel at a time when so many Israelis have lost their confidence in the vision and direction of their government.
00:16:50.260I suppose you could say, well, Chuck Schumer, he has an old-fashioned affection for Israel, as used to be more common in the Democrats, but calling for, in the middle of a war, no less, calling for the decapitation and the firing of Netanyahu, yeah, that might not be anti-Israel, but that's pretty crazy.
00:17:41.980The Republicans, by and large, are full-throated, pro-Israel, standing by Israel.
00:17:47.540And there are some Democrats, notably John Fetterman, big surprise.
00:17:52.520But overall, the Democratic Party or the liberal left in the United States, as around the world, is turning against Israel.
00:18:00.280My favorite example, Ezra, is of all places in the southern cone of South America, where you have Argentina and Chile.
00:18:12.160And it could not be more different in this regard.
00:18:15.360Arguably, Argentina, under Javier Millet, is the most pro-Israel country government in the world.
00:18:22.680Arguably, Chile, under Gabriel Boric, is not the most anti, but it's pretty close to it, for a country that has nothing to do with Israel.
00:18:34.460Extremely anti-Israel, to the point that Boric wouldn't accept the credentials of the Israeli ambassador.
00:18:39.980He didn't want anything to do with him.
00:18:40.900So there you go, far, far away, as far away as you can get, this argument over Israel and the Palestinians, Israel and Hamas, is playing out and has an important role, far away.
00:20:19.880The president of Ireland recently sent a, I think it was a condolence letter to Iran on the passing of their president or whatever it was, the guy who died in the plane crash.
00:20:31.460Like, it's just, it's very strange to see countries with no connection to Israel economically, militarily, diplomatically, and there's no demographic connection, there's no Jewish community, just, you know, poke at Israel for whatever ideological box checking.
00:20:49.660I just find it bizarre, of all the crises in Ireland, which is a country I follow sort of closely these days, they always stop and make time to take a shot at Israel.
00:21:04.480Look, the left, in the early 1990s, began adopting the Palestinians as their favorite cause, as its favorite cause.
00:21:13.620And this has increased, as I say, over the third of a century.
00:21:17.040It's a result of a whole range of things that happened.
00:21:21.260The invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the coming together of the European Union in 1992, the Oslo Accords in 1993, and finally, and perhaps most importantly, the collapse of the apartheid regime in 1994, Nestle Mandela coming to power.
00:21:39.840All these five events turned the left from generally sympathetic to the Palestinians to extremely focused.
00:21:49.640And the coming out party for this was not coincidentally in Durban, South Africa, in 2001, just days before 9-11.
00:21:57.100And it has increased over the next two decades, and it's ever more acute.
00:22:03.100But mind you, it's not just a one-sided phenomenon.
00:22:06.380The right, which used to have a lot of qualms and problems with Israel, has increasingly adopted Israel.
00:22:13.160It was, in the 1950s and 60s, the right that was reluctant to work with Israel, saw Israel as an impediment to forming alliances against the Soviet Union.
00:22:27.660And again, there are always exceptions.
00:22:29.040But overwhelmingly, the right around the world, whether it's Japan or Brazil or India or Finland or Canada, the right has become Israel's stalwart friend.
00:22:43.560This is the dramatic reversal from earlier decades, and it's becoming ever more clear that the right is with Israel and the left is hostile to Israel.
00:22:53.040I wouldn't say that the left is pro-Palestinian.
00:22:55.440I would say the left is hostile to Israel.
00:22:57.600You know, here in Canada, we were always very close at the United Nations, not quite as pro-Israel as the United States was, but pretty close.
00:23:52.940But when you bring in two million Muslim migrants into Canada in short order and you don't vet in any way for cultural fit or for ancient feelings of anti-Semitism,
00:24:05.460don't be surprised when suddenly out of 338 districts in Canada, 20 of them go with the Muslim vote.
00:24:14.360And I think that it's not just the left-wing politics that has pulled Justin Trudeau away from Israel.
00:27:52.100And it has scared the Labour Party profoundly and is causing all sorts of reconsiderations of what the Labour policy towards Israel and the Palestinians should be.
00:28:11.240I saw a story in the Jerusalem Post the other day that was shocking, and I don't know if it's true.
00:28:16.320I'm going to ask you because you probably know.
00:28:18.120After the assassination – I'm switching gears here for a bit – after the assassination of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is just such a dramatic move.
00:28:31.680Like it's – you're operating in the most dangerous place for a Mossad agent.
00:28:58.960That reportedly the United States revealed those Mossad agents to Iran as a kind of punishment to Israel for doing this action without their full support.
00:29:13.120That is, America tipped off Iran after the fact to who the Mossad agents were.
00:29:19.020I don't know if you know that story or the truth of it or if it's been rebuked in some way or refuted.
00:29:25.420But that was a terrifying article for me, and it made me think that there is a great divide between Israel and America.
00:29:59.420I heard the other day that Israel declined to give advance notice to the United States on a particularly military operation because they were worried that Iran would be tipped off.
00:30:10.120And again, maybe this is some overheated leaking, but it does feel to me that the United States is repeatedly holding Israel back from—
00:30:21.420Because they still believe that the U.S., at least under the Democrats, still believe they can work with Iran as a regional partner.
00:30:29.740The Obama administration came up with the idea that if you approach the Iranians the right way, the Iranian regime the right way, then you can do business with them.
00:30:40.800And to use their phrase, the Iranians will rejoin the community of nations.
00:30:46.480It's a nonsensical idea, but it persists in the Democratic Party, and it is the source of the Democrats' deeply mistaken understanding of Iran.
00:30:59.300The Israelis, in part, did not notify the Americans about the operation against Tania because of fears that it might be leaked, but also, in part, they didn't want to be restrained.
00:31:11.580And there's a CIA saying that I like and often use, better to apologize than to ask permission.
00:31:21.340I saw on one of these websites, I think it was Flight Tracker, where pretty much every aircraft in the world can be tracked, including military aircraft.
00:31:49.040And I saw this the other day, an enormous number of Russian cargo jets flying back and forth into Iran.
00:31:58.260And, I mean, really, Russia has decided that its future is with Iran and Syria.
00:32:07.040I don't know how American can wiggle in there, too, but has Russia been distracted from its Middle Eastern plans by what's going on in Ukraine?
00:32:17.660Is Russia an important factor in Iran anymore?
00:33:54.780I saw the other day there was a massive military parade in Afghanistan where the Taliban were parading some of the literally thousands of military vehicles, including some quite heavily armored specialized vehicles.
00:34:10.520I think there were even some helicopters.
00:34:12.320The Taliban were having a military parade with all the stuff that Joe Biden left behind when he hastily evacuated.
00:34:19.680Like, I'm sure that a lot of those, a lot of that equipment has been, has found its way to the Ukraine-Russia war.
00:34:25.920I'm sure that, it's just an astonishing thing.
00:34:38.640The Chinese have showed very great interest in Afghanistan, in the enormous mineral deposits of Afghanistan, in Afghanistan as the neighbor of Pakistan, which is also very, very high on the Chinese priority, in Pakistan's case, an outlet to the Indian Ocean.
00:35:04.160And the Chinese, as you're well aware, are not particularly scrupulous about the nature of the governments they're doing business with.
00:35:13.440And they're quite happy to deal with the Taliban, especially as the Taliban are rejected by so much of the world.
00:35:20.280Again, this gives the Chinese, as with Putin, a chance to exploit the weaknesses in Afghanistan and take advantage of the problems the Taliban have to get good deals on minerals and other commodities in Afghanistan.
00:35:38.260I should tell you that Canada is still sending foreign aid to Afghanistan, even under the Taliban.
00:37:05.500His tweets to the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, Donald Trump's wildness, his unpredictability,
00:37:13.000I think it scared a lot of bad guys, and some of them he scared straight.
00:37:18.200I mean, he negotiated the unthinkable Abraham Accords amongst former enemies.
00:37:22.960What do you think the world expects from America in November?
00:37:29.820Do you think they're expecting Trump to win again so they're going to get as much dirty deeds done before he's elected?
00:37:36.600Do you think they're trying to undermine him in some way?
00:37:39.600Do you think they believe Kamala Harris will win?
00:37:43.500What does the world think about Trump, especially places like Iran, Qatar, the terrorist groups, China, Russia?
00:37:50.100What do you think – I think Trump will solve a lot of these problems, but maybe that's me just so desperate for some sort of savior here.
00:37:57.520What do you think of Trump and his prospects and how that might change the world?
00:38:02.780Well, the one-word summary of what you just said about Trump is a cowboy.
00:38:09.480He is the American cowboy, unpredictable, going off in his own direction, trusting his instinct, ignoring sage advice.
00:38:20.060And, of course, Joe Biden is the opposite.
00:38:22.260How many decades was he at the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, the chairman of it, in all sorts of positions and very much a product of the establishment, someone who relies on AIDS, who relies on expertise, couldn't be more opposite.
00:38:41.980And in some ways, I think this is to Biden's credit.
00:38:49.200I'm not entirely a fan of Mr. Trump's.
00:38:52.220I think, for example, in an area – on a topic like Ukraine, Biden, with all this expertise, has done pretty much the right thing.
00:39:11.420It's better to have a cowboy in the White House than a bureaucrat.
00:39:14.620And while the opponents and enemies of the United States would rather have a bureaucrat, so would many of the allies.
00:39:25.400NATO allies, for example, would much rather have Biden than – or now Harris – than Trump.
00:39:31.600So overall, I'd say the world, friendly and unfriendly to the United States, would rather have a Democrat than Trump.
00:39:40.700They will be discomfited in a variety of ways, should it be Trump, whether it be the North Koreans, the Russians, the Chinese, or the Germans and the French and the English and the Canadians.