Joe Biden s scandal-plagued relationship with his son, Hunter, and his daughter-in-law, Navy Joan Biden, have had a profound effect on the public perception of him and his family. And now, Hunter Biden has been cut off from the Biden family, and Joe Biden is no longer allowed to use his last name "Biden" in his daughter's name. What does this mean for the future of the Biden dynasty? And what does it mean for Joe Biden's political career? And why is Hunter Biden not allowed to be named after his father, Joe Biden? This episode is brought to you by New York Magazine and edited by Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to our sponsor, Caff Monster Energy Drink, for sponsoring this episode and for producing the music and producing the sound design. Please don't forget to SUBSCRIBE and leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! Subscribe to our new podcast, Rate/subscribe and tell a friend about what you think of the podcast! Thanks for listening and share the podcast with your fellow podcasters! friends! Timestamps: 0:00 - What do you think about the podcast? 5:30 - Is Hunter Biden a bad guy? 6:40 - Is he a bad dad? 7:15 - How does he deserve to have his own daughter named Navy Joan? 8:20 - What does he look like? 9:00 10:00 -- What would you name his daughter Navy Joan ? 11: What are you looking for? 12:30 -- What is the real Joe Biden last name? 13:00 | How does Hunter Biden s relationship with Hunter Biden do? 14: What is Navy Joan s real? 15:50 -- What does Navy Joan do to me? 16:40 -- What do I know about Hunter Biden have a daughter? 17:20 -- Who would you want to be Joe Biden s last name ? 18:15 -- How much money should I have? 19: What would I have in my daughter have in the name Joe Biden have in a baby? 21: What kind of name do you want? 22: How would I pay for Navy Joan's last name I would you like to see in a painting? 26:30 27:30 Would you like a painting of Navy Joan?? 25:10 -- Why would I give Navy Joan have it?
00:00:00.000Well, the president of the United States is wildly unpopular, and a lot of people have attributed that to his policies.
00:00:04.000The fact that his policies are all about gigantic government spending or equity at the center of all things, or weak foreign policy, including the pullout from Afghanistan.
00:00:12.000But the reality is that the reason that Joe Biden has been sinking in the polls is because Americans don't like him personally.
00:00:18.000Unlike Barack Obama, where the polls showed they liked the guy personally, they didn't like his policies.
00:00:21.000With Joe Biden, the two are just intertwined.
00:00:24.000Joe Biden is not liked by personally. And the turning point for him was actually the
00:00:27.000pullout from Afghanistan. Until that point, there'd been a widespread perception that he
00:00:31.000was a kindly elderly gentleman who wasn't all there, but in essence was a fairly okay guy. But when
00:00:36.000he pulled out from Afghanistan and basically said, I don't care what happens there, when there
00:00:40.000are people falling off wheel wells and American soldiers getting blown up and his entire
00:00:43.000administration sitting there talking about what a wonderful job they were doing, that really sunk the
00:00:48.000perception of the American public about him.
00:00:50.000But he has now underscored that in radical terms because of his association with his son, Hunter.
00:00:56.000So the public mind with regard to Hunter Biden has shifted to, it started off with Hunter Biden
00:01:17.000And then, as all these corruption stories roll out, These stories about how Hunter was going around picking up giant bags of cash from foreign sources and Joe was in all likelihood benefiting from that.
00:01:26.000The documents on Hunter Biden's laptop in which Hunter Biden is bragging to his daughter about funding daddy.
00:01:31.000The documents from his laptop suggesting that Joe was taking part in meetings either by phone or sometimes even in person stopping by meetings and saying hello.
00:01:40.000Documents suggesting that Hunter Biden was saying to foreign officials That Joe Biden was sitting next to him as he attempted to essentially pry money out of them.
00:01:48.000You combine that with Joe Biden's treatment of Hunter Biden's illegitimate daughter, and things start to go bad for Joe Biden in terms of public perception real fast.
00:01:57.000So, lurking in the background of the Biden family story has always been this idea that they are incredibly tribal.
00:02:02.000That if you are a Biden, then you get to benefit from the sweetheart deals that are associated with the Biden last name.
00:02:07.000If you're Frank Biden, you can go around and pick up cash.
00:02:10.000If you are Hunter, you can go around and pick up cash.
00:02:12.000Because, of course, you're a member of the corrupt Biden family.
00:02:15.000But if they choose not to give you the name, if they decide that they are not going to extend the name to you, then you're basically cut off at the knees.
00:02:22.000And who better to apply that logic to than a small baby?
00:02:27.000So as we all know, at this point, Hunter Biden had a sexual relationship with a woman named London Roberts.
00:02:35.000London Roberts was acting apparently as his quasi-assistant, and by quasi-assistant we mean that Hunter was basically using her not just for her secretarial abilities, but for apparently other purposes and reasons, sexual in nature, and she bore a child by him whom she named Navy Joan.
00:03:02.000He's had seven grandchildren for four years.
00:03:05.000And there's no real religious objection here.
00:03:06.000I mean, it's not as though he has differences with Hunter and therefore he's cut Hunter off from the family or something like that.
00:03:12.000This is some lady that Hunter got pregnant and a kid who obviously is Joe Biden's granddaughter, who he simply refused to give the Biden last name, which of course is the imprimatur of not only legitimacy, But also of moneymaking.
00:03:26.000In the Biden family, literally the only thing that matters is that last name.
00:03:33.000He ran for president 100 times before he latched onto the rising star of Barack Obama, and then rode that in his octogenarian years to the presidency of the United States over Donald Trump.
00:03:43.000The Biden last name is the moneymaker, and that is explicitly what was denied to Navy Joan.
00:03:48.000In fact, in the paternity hearings about Navy Joan, Joe Biden, presumably Hunter Biden, said in the final analysis that Navy Joan would be denied Hunter's last name.
00:03:59.000The only thing that Hunter would be giving to Navy Joan and her mommy were some finger paintings that Hunter Biden had created.
00:04:06.000Then presumably there'd be some sort of corrupt deal or somebody buys those paintings off of Navy Joan's mom and it's a money laundering operation essentially on behalf of the Biden family, yet again by big name donors who will buy Hunter Biden's paintings from London Roberts, and then that money will eventually see Navy Joan.
00:04:20.000But Navy Joan will be denied the magical Biden last name that has meant literally tens of millions of dollars flowing into family coffers for decades on end.
00:04:28.000So Joe Biden cares about his granddaughter so much that he literally refused to acknowledge her existence.
00:04:33.000At the White House, there was a Christmas stocking for his dog, you know, the one that was biting all the secret service agents.
00:04:39.000But there was no Christmas stocking for the granddaughter he refused to acknowledge.
00:04:42.000Well, over the weekend, Joe Biden reversed that.
00:04:44.000Well, the poll numbers must have gotten real bad because there was nothing that changed in principle here.
00:04:48.000It wasn't as though Joe Biden suddenly, it dawned on him that maybe he should acknowledge his seventh grandchild.
00:04:54.000No, what happened here is pretty obvious.
00:04:56.000The American people don't like it when this supposed kindly old family man, whose entire excuse for his really ludicrously soft treatment of his son has been that he loves his son oh so much, he's the beautiful boy, he's never done anything wrong.
00:05:10.000It turns out that that doesn't hold water when you are willing to disown a four-year-old.
00:05:14.000It's easy to make the claim that you love your kids so much that you let them get away with stuff when everybody in the family is treated with this level of warmth.
00:05:22.000But when you say, this four-year-old, who through no fault of her own, was born of your son, is not part of the family, but the son, who is a crack-addicted derelict, who runs around the world picking up bags of cash, he is in good with me.
00:05:35.000That appears a lot more like corruption than it does like family loyalty, because apparently to get kicked out of the family, all that is required is for your mom to be somebody that Joe Biden doesn't like very much or finds humiliating, but to be included in all family activities up to and including present day, even after pleading guilty to actual federal misdemeanors.
00:05:51.000All you really have to do is go out and continue to pick up bags of cash if you are Hunter Biden or have picked up bags of cash in the past.
00:05:58.000So, over the weekend, Joe Biden and Jill Biden put out a statement, finally, about this missing grandchild.
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00:07:44.000Right, because it's only a controversy when you refuse to name your grandchild because your son sired her off a former stripper or something.
00:07:52.000This is not a political issue, it's a family matter, said President Biden.
00:07:55.000Jill and I only want what's best for all of our grandchildren, including Navy.
00:07:59.000A source familiar with the situation tells People the recently resolved child support dispute between Hunter and London has dictated how the relationship has played out so far.
00:08:06.000Okay, that source familiar with the situation would probably be the Biden family.
00:08:10.000Because who else exactly are they citing?
00:08:13.000You have to remember there were some fairly contentious legal proceedings between Navy's parents happening until just a few weeks ago.
00:08:17.000As grandparents, the Bidens are following Hunter's lead.
00:08:20.000They are and have been giving Hunter and London the space and time to figure things out.
00:08:23.000I don't understand, what the hell does that have to do with Joe acknowledging that Navy Joan is his grandkid?
00:08:32.000There is no dispute whatsoever that that is in fact the case.
00:08:35.000I mean, they literally did a paternity test in May 2019 to determine that Navy Joan is in fact Hunter's kid.
00:08:41.000So if Joe has just been saying this the whole time, he's like, yeah, they're in the middle of, I'm not going to comment on their legal situation, that's seen mommy and daddy in this particular case, but of course she's our grandchild and we love her.
00:08:58.000He says this over and over in public life, that the Biden family, I swear on the Biden family name, the Biden family name, because the Biden family name, again, is his only valuable tool.
00:09:06.000And it was only valuable, really, to everybody who was around him because he was able to parlay his situation as a senator into jobs and cash for his son, for his brother, for everybody else.
00:09:15.000And presumably, some of that cash came back to him.
00:09:17.000I say presumably because, again, we have documented accusations that that is the case from Hunter, from his laptop.
00:09:23.000Speaking to People, the source notes the situation is a family issue.
00:09:25.000Quote, thousands of families have faced similar circumstances working it out in private versus the spotlight.
00:09:31.000How many families are there where the grandparents refuse to even acknowledge that they have a grandchild unless there is some sort of family dispute in which the parents of the child are estranged from the grandparents?
00:10:21.000Because in politics, If, as the Democratic Party suggests, character matters, it matters so much so that Donald Trump should never have been president, he should never be president again because of his character defect.
00:10:31.000Well, the fact is that Joe Biden has portrayed himself in a way that Donald Trump never did.
00:10:35.000Joe Biden has portrayed himself as a generous, kind-hearted family man who only cares about the members of his family above all.
00:10:41.000So much so that he's purely sympathetic to his drug-addicted, booze-addled son.
00:10:45.000But when it comes to the grandkid, well, then that's off-limits.
00:10:49.000It's off-limits until we decide to say something, at which point it's on-limits for just a second to say once again what a great grandpa Joe is, and then back to being off-limits again.
00:10:58.000And of course, the media are lapping this up, because the media had no questions about this for a very, very long time.
00:11:02.000So here, for example, is MSNBC anchor Ali Rafa saying, all they want is to preserve this little girl's privacy again.
00:11:07.000If they wanted to preserve her privacy, you know it would have been the easiest way to do that, to just have Joe Biden say he has seven grandchildren, which he did.
00:11:14.000Alex, the president has never shared his reasoning for not publicly acknowledging this little girl, but a source familiar with the family's situation tells NBC News he's avoided doing so until now to give his son and the girl's mother the time and space to navigate this.
00:11:29.000The president, who's always made his family a very public part of his life, now asking to preserve this little girl's privacy.
00:11:36.000So at this point, it's still unclear whether the family dynamics change at all.
00:11:42.000So again, it's all about the preservation of the privacy.
00:11:45.000And then, if you actually mention the actual situation, then members of the media shut you down.
00:11:49.000So CNN host Casey Hunt had on a CNN analyst named Scott Jennings.
00:11:53.000And Scott Jennings is going pretty hard after Hunter.
00:11:59.000Do we have to be respectful of Hunter?
00:12:01.000Who undoubtedly was acting as a foreign agent of multiple governments, and who sired a child by a person he called his secretary, and who then ignored that child for four years, and who has denied that child his last name.
00:12:14.000Do we have to treat Hunter with respect?
00:12:17.000I don't feel any necessity to treat Hunter- and he is a public figure insofar as he was picking up bags of cash with his daddy's name on them.
00:12:25.000But here is CNN going into defense mode and spin mode here.
00:12:29.000It's not Republicans with all due respect who made Hunter Biden into a complete scumbag on this and other issues.
00:12:34.000The ignoring his own daughter for four years and the President of the United States hanging up a stocking for the dog and not for his seventh grandchild.
00:12:45.000We can also have sympathy for people who are struggling with addiction.
00:12:48.000Let's keep this conversation respectful.
00:13:08.000I mean, the fact that she says that she jumps in and tries to stop Scott Jennings from doing all this is just demonstrative of everything that the Biden family relies upon, which is the acquiescence of the media in all these situations, which is really what so much of this is about.
00:13:23.000We'll get to more on this in just one second because, again, the Hunter Biden saga is, in fact, going to do serious damage to Joe in a way that nothing is going to do damage to Trump.
00:13:33.000As I've said before, This has been true for years.
00:13:36.000Donald Trump, when it comes to this race, is essentially a mud monster.
00:13:39.000The more mud you throw on him, the more he is made of mud.
00:13:41.000You cannot sully the frock of somebody whose frock is made of mud.
00:13:46.000But Joe Biden proclaimed that he is a decent, honest, hard-working family man.
00:13:50.000And it turns out that he actually is a pretty corrupt old politician who is willing to manipulate and use his drug-addled son to pick up bags of cash abroad while ignoring his grandchild.
00:14:00.000I mean, that's not quite the same look.
00:14:02.000We'll get to more on this in just one second.
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00:15:14.000So much of a sweetheart deal that, as we explained last week, when it was exposed to the light of day, they immediately dissociated themselves from the sweetheart deal they attempted to cut.
00:15:23.000Basically, they had two sets of charges.
00:15:24.000One was the tax charges, one was the gun charges against Hunter Biden.
00:15:27.000In the tax charges, they didn't say anything about waiving further investigations and charges with regard to, for example, the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which Hunter Biden clearly violated.
00:15:35.000He was acting as an amuse on Burisma's board and trying to lobby politicians on behalf of Burisma.
00:15:41.000Hey, Burisma is a Ukrainian energy company.
00:15:44.000He was doing this also on behalf of Chinese companies.
00:15:46.000So there's no question that he violated the terms of the Foreign Agents Registration Act by any available measure.
00:15:51.000And so the question is, are there further investigations that are going to bear fruit not only with regard to Hunter, but maybe might just touch Joe?
00:15:57.000And the DOJ was eager to basically get all of these claims off the table.
00:16:01.000And so there was this kind of bizarre open battle that was happening between the DOJ and Hunter Biden's legal team, where Hunter Biden's legal team would go on national television, and then they would say things like, well, by our understanding, all charges are now off the table.
00:16:12.000And the DOJ would be like, no, they're not really.
00:16:14.000And he would say, yeah, you know, they really are.
00:16:16.000Well, it turns out that Hunter Biden's lawyers had reason to think so, because these tax charges, which were publicly available, those did not waive further charges.
00:16:49.000OK, well, over the weekend, the DOJ also sent a letter to Devon Archer's attorney.
00:16:55.000Devon Archer is the former business partner of Hunter Biden, who is now testifying today behind closed doors before Congress, talking about Joe Biden and how Joe Biden would get called into meetings and how the big guy was Joe Biden and all of this sort of stuff.
00:17:08.000It really could be devastating stuff for Hunter Biden, as well as Joe Biden, because again, Joe proclaimed that he knew nothing about Hunter Biden's businesses, which is weird when you're getting called by Hunter Biden's business partners on the phone and he's putting you on the phone with them.
00:17:22.000Well, he's supposed to testify to that before Congress today.
00:17:25.000Well, literally two days before that happens, a letter is sent from Damian Williams, U.S.
00:17:30.000Attorney, The government respectfully requests the defendant be ordered to surrender at a date and time determined by the court to a facility designated by the Bureau of Prisons to commence his term of imprisonment.
00:17:40.000The government has conferred with counsel for the defendant about this request and asked that counsel propose a date for the defendant's surrender.
00:17:45.000Counsel responded with the following position.
00:17:48.000Mr. Archer believes it is premature to set up a report date in light of his anticipated continuing appeal, as well as the newly discovered sentencing error the government has now concluded.
00:17:55.000Counsel for Mr. Archer will put in a response to the government's request by Wednesday.
00:17:58.000The government disagrees with the counsel's position a report date should not be set.
00:18:01.000So in other words, there is a dispute between the attorney for Devin Archer, he's been convicted in other crimes, and the DOJ literally sent a letter over the weekend saying, we would like to set a date for him to come in and turn himself in.
00:18:15.000So, this was interpreted by some, including the New York Post's Miranda Devine, suggesting that they wanted Devin Archer to turn himself in to jail before he actually was able to give his congressional testimony.
00:18:24.000Apparently that's not the case, but the letter itself is still kind of weird.
00:18:28.000I mean, a letter that you send publicly, right?
00:18:50.000One, publicly, it again tries to label Devin Archer an untrustworthy, unreliable source because it reminds the entire public that the guy has pled guilty to crimes.
00:19:00.000And second, it reminds Devin Archer who's in charge, namely the DOJ and you remember, like, Joe Biden.
00:19:08.000Archer's counsel, again, rejected the notion there's any connection between Archer's tiff with the Justice Department and his potential imminent jail time.
00:19:15.000He said, we're aware of speculation the DOJ's weekend request to have Archer report to prison is an attempt by the Biden administration to intimidate him in advance of his meeting with the House Oversight Committee.
00:19:23.000To be clear, Mr. Archer does not agree with that speculation.
00:19:25.000In any case, Mr. Archer will do what he has planned to do all along.
00:19:27.000He'll show up on Monday and honestly answer the questions put to him by the congressional invest— What else do you think he's going to say?
00:19:32.000If he's actually being intimidated by Joe Biden's DOJ, then he's going to be out there being like, I'm being intimidated by Joe Biden's DOJ who has complete control over my sentencing.
00:19:39.000Or is he going to go out publicly and he's going to say what he's expected to say, thus achieving the purpose of the letter.
00:19:46.000So we'll see what Devin Archer has to say behind closed doors, but that is definitely super weird.
00:19:50.000Meanwhile, you have people who are very much involved in the Trump impeachment, like Representative Dan Goldman saying, the process on the DOJ, this is all fully above board.
00:19:59.000The Hunter Biden plea deal was fully above board and great.
00:20:02.000Were you surprised to see the judge in Delaware reject the plea deal?
00:20:09.000Well, this is a fairly typical process that goes through.
00:20:13.000This was an unusual agreement, in part because it's a 24-month agreement, and there's the possibility that Donald Trump will be president.
00:20:23.000And we know from his presidency how much he weaponized the Department of Justice to go after his enemies and to favor his associates.
00:20:30.000And so Hunter Biden's lawyers are concerned that Donald Trump, if he were to get the presidency, would weaponize the Department of Justice.
00:20:38.000And so there is an added calculation to this.
00:20:41.000But the fact of the matter is that this is a Trump-appointed U.S.
00:20:47.000This is a very Independent and thorough investigation.
00:20:53.000And I think that whatever happens in the Hunter Biden case, we can rest assured that it was done based solely on the facts and the evidence and that there was nothing else to it.
00:21:21.000I know, dark thoughts here on a Monday, but it is reality.
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00:22:16.000Okay, so naturally, the outcome from the media when it comes to Hunter Biden's corruption and Joe Biden's potential involvement in that corruption is that there's nothing to see here.
00:22:29.000Chuck Todd over on NBC says, you know, the Republicans are going to go after Joe and Hunter, whether there's anything there or not.
00:22:36.000OK, so first of all, let me point out you guys set the standard.
00:22:47.000If the rules only apply to one side, they ain't rules.
00:22:50.000And so if you go after Donald Trump for four long years with bullcrap investigations about how actually he was a member of the Russian oligarchy, And you have Adam Schiff trotted out on places like Meet the Press routinely to talk about how they have a smoking gun hidden behind clothes.
00:23:05.000But sooner or later, they will emerge from behind the Price is Right curtain and they will explain to you exactly how Donald Trump was working hand in glove with Vladimir Putin.
00:23:17.000When the shoe is on the other foot, Things are going to be kind of... Now, here's the reality.
00:23:21.000We currently have more documented evidence that Joe Biden was receiving benefit from Hunter Biden's foreign payoffs than that Donald Trump was receiving foreign payoffs.
00:23:31.000That evidence is much better for Joe than it is with regard to Donald Trump.
00:23:35.000We still have yet to see what is the documented benefit that Donald Trump received from, for example, the Russian government.
00:24:43.000This investigation started during the Trump administration, and they've come forward with not one shred of evidence.
00:24:49.000I'm tying President Biden to any of this.
00:24:52.000I am encouraged that in sharp contrast to President Trump, you've just detailed his mountain of legal problems where President Trump is fighting and pushing back and obstructing.
00:25:02.000Hunter Biden's come forward, taken responsibility, paid his late taxes.
00:25:07.000As you just discussed with Chuck Rosenberg, I think the hiccup in the Delaware District Courthouse will get ironed out pretty quickly.
00:25:13.000And I don't think President Biden needs to say anything more than he has.
00:25:16.000House Republicans are going to accuse him.
00:25:38.000Okay, meanwhile, Donald Trump is of course using this as the impetus for his campaign.
00:25:42.000So this campaign, you gotta say, Donald Trump is one of the luckiest SOBs ever to live in politics.
00:25:47.000Because when the dice are down, they tend to break his way almost always.
00:25:52.000And this is particularly true when it comes to the way this race is shaping up.
00:25:55.000So right now, it is shaping up for the Republican side as a referendum on Joe Biden's corruption.
00:26:00.000And so that is going to break very much in Donald Trump's favor.
00:26:02.000Because again, Donald Trump, as he himself has proclaimed, with the inerrant instinct that he has, and this is the magical benefit of Donald Trump, truthfully.
00:26:27.000Or I should rather say he has a genius for it.
00:26:30.000Because it doesn't come from, I think, IQ points as much as it comes from just, he has a gut-level understanding of where to put the knife in.
00:26:35.000He's been great at this since the 2015 campaign, which is why the nicknames that so many people dismissed as, you know, dumb or a waste of time, including me, they resonate, obviously.
00:26:46.000He does have a capacity to speak to the 7th grade side of people that is really inerrant.
00:26:51.000And it's also true when it comes to kind of capturing the political id.
00:26:56.000When it comes to a person who sums up the political id and is able to capture it in a way that no other politician in my lifetime can, Trump is that guy.
00:27:03.000So Trump understands the momentum in the Republican Party with regard to Joe Biden is all about the corruption.
00:27:23.000Donald Trump was the president of the United States.
00:27:25.000He has an extraordinary level of loyalty inside the Republican Party, and he's still campaigning as an outsider because it allows him to be as free-willing as he wants to be.
00:27:31.000The minute you're burdened with the feeling of being an establishment, Figure, the moment you actually have responsibility for your own party, well, then people can hold you accountable for failures, right?
00:27:40.000This is what started to happen in 2022, after Trump endorsed a slate of candidates who all lost in the Senate.
00:27:45.000There was just for a brief moment in time, Republicans were like, wait, doesn't he bear some responsibility for those losses?
00:28:27.000But he also said that if people don't vote to impeach Joe Biden, regardless, he's going to then primary them.
00:28:34.000Which is a way of declaring his political virtue to Republican members of the base who really, really don't like Joe Biden.
00:28:39.000So again, I may think this is bad politics.
00:28:42.000If you're in a purple district and you vote for Joe Biden's impeachment, you may lose your seat.
00:28:44.000But Donald Trump doesn't care about that.
00:28:45.000Again, he bears no responsibility for the Republican Party.
00:28:49.000Donald Trump doesn't care whether the Republican Party wins or loses.
00:28:51.000He cares about whether he wins or loses.
00:28:53.000This has been perfectly true since he was running in 2015-2016 when he refused to endorse the idea that if he lost the primaries, he'd even vote for the other guy who won.
00:29:00.000So here's Donald Trump in Erie, Pennsylvania over the weekend.
00:29:22.000And they have to be, and honestly, and if they're not willing to do it, we've got a lot of good, tough Republicans around, and people are going to run against them, and people are going to win, and they're going to get my endorsement every single time, and they're going to win because we win almost every race when we endorse.
00:29:38.000I mean, put aside the fact that that is 100% not true in the major top-of-the-ticket Senate races, where his record was abysmal.
00:29:44.000But that doesn't matter, because again, this is Donald Trump being able to run against anyone and everyone at the same time, which is the benefit of being Donald Trump.
00:29:51.000Every other candidate has to worry about attacking Trump.
00:29:53.000Trump doesn't worry about attacking anybody.
00:29:56.000Donald Trump will go after primary opponents inside the Republican Party.
00:29:59.000He will go after congressional primary opponents.
00:30:03.000And again, because he channels that political id for the Republican Party, we all feel, in the Republican Party, a lot of people feel like he'll do that to the Democrats too, which is true.
00:30:41.000Two, the war in Ukraine against Russia is in America's interest in the sense that it degrades the Russian military, prevents them from invading further countries, maintains the reliability of NATO against foreign aggression, sends a message to China that if they invade Taiwan, there will be actual consequences for all of that, and prevents Vladimir Putin from consolidating resources on behalf of an anti-American alliance, right?
00:31:00.000All of those are real American interests.
00:31:01.000But you can also hold that With the position that obviously all money that we spend over there, we have to know where that money is going.
00:31:08.000We have to assume that some of that money is going to bad places and all of the rest.
00:31:11.000But Trump understands that there is a rising sentiment against the funding of the war in Ukraine.
00:31:17.000And so now he's going to blame that on Joe Biden's corruption in Ukraine.
00:31:20.000So he's linking two issues now for the Republican base, like a heavy chunk of the Republican base.
00:31:24.000Issue one is Ukraine, which again, for probably a plurality of Republicans at this point, or at least verging on a plurality, the Ukraine war is unpopular.
00:31:31.000He's merging that position with the anti-Joe Biden position to create a sort of iron nexus that is very useful to him politically because he's the only one articulating it.
00:31:39.000Here he was talking about how the suggestion is that we're in war in Ukraine specifically because Joe Biden wanted to pick up cash.
00:31:48.000But the weapons stockpiles to Ukraine until the FBI, DOJ, and IRS hand over every scrap of evidence they have on the Biden crime family's corrupt business dealings.
00:31:59.000We have to know, and the public deserves to know.
00:32:03.000In addition, Congress should immediately vote to block Joe Biden's recent call-up of reserve forces.
00:32:10.000We're sending now troops over to Europe to fight.
00:32:14.000OK, so it is not true, by the way, that we're sending troops to Europe to fight in Ukraine, that that is not actually true.
00:32:19.000But again, this is smart politics from Donald Trump.
00:32:23.000Now, the problem is, does Donald Trump actually have any sort of plan to win the actual election?
00:32:28.000So all of this plays inside the Republican primary, where everybody hates Joe Biden.
00:32:32.000Everybody knows that Joe Biden is corrupt and a lot of people don't like the Ukraine war.
00:32:35.000But an actual election between Joe Biden and Trump, that's a risky strategy, because the reality is that the Ukraine war is still a majority proposition in the United States.
00:32:43.000The reality is he's going to stack up Trump against Joe Biden.
00:32:45.000We'll get to Trump's flaws in just one second.
00:32:47.000Again, I've praised his inerrant political instinct because they really are quite good.
00:32:51.000But by the same token, a lot of the things that he's preparing for when it comes to the actual general election are not going to materialize.
00:32:57.000We'll get to that in just one second first.
00:33:00.000Not a big fan of the veggies over here, as you know.
00:33:04.000They're just not... Veggies are my enemy.
00:33:06.000However, I still need the nutrition to be got from the veggies, which is why I love my Balance of Nature Fruits and Veggies.
00:33:11.000They're a great way to make sure you're getting essential nutritional ingredients every single day.
00:33:14.000Through Balance of Nature's advanced cold vacuum process, the vitamins, minerals, and phytonutrients of the fruits and veggies are preserved, so you can get that vital nutrition in each capsule.
00:33:22.000Balance of Nature is a whole food supplement with no additives, fillers, extracts, synthetics, pesticides, or added sugar.
00:33:26.000Pure fruits and veggies are the only things they put in their capsules.
00:33:29.000Well, Balance of Nature actually sent a bunch of product down to the studio for the team to try.
00:33:32.000It's kosher, so I've been using it, and let me tell you, it may be keeping me alive at this point, given the fact that I have four children who wake me up at all times of the night, plus a dog.
00:33:39.000Producer Jake also, he's been trying the Balance of Nature fruits and veggies.
00:33:43.000He really hates garlic, but he loves the benefits to be got from things that like garlic, and this is why he likes his Balance of Nature fruits and veggie capsule.
00:33:50.000And again, as I say, kosher, so I can take them as well.
00:33:53.000For a limited time this summer, when you become a preferred customer at Balance of Nature, they're throwing in a free fruit and veggies travel set, giving an additional $25 off your first order.
00:34:53.000It's the ideal addition to your bathroom or kitchen sink as you liberate your home from the influence of wool companies and or germs.
00:34:58.000Go to jeremysrazors.com, order your green tea and citrus hand soap today.
00:35:02.000Okay, meanwhile, now again, because the campaign against Joe Biden is coming down to not his policy so much as sort of personality, corruption, and all of the rest, this really benefits Trump, because this is the area where Trump really excels in tearing people down.
00:35:16.000For literally years, he's just been dragging people down into the mud with him, and the idea is once they're both in the mud, then he's competitive.
00:35:21.000And that, by the way, is what the polls are showing right now.
00:35:23.000What the polls are showing is that he's very competitive with Biden, not because he is popular, but because Joe Biden is unpopular.
00:35:28.000With that said, The thing that Trump would then need to do is run an actual concerted race with regard to, you know, expending resources to get the votes.
00:35:37.000So over the weekend, Donald Trump suggested that all of his primary opponents should drop out so people would stop spending money on his primary opponents and give the money to him.
00:35:43.000And then he would spend it on things like ballot harvesting.
00:35:47.000Any Republican that doesn't act on Democrat fraud should be immediately primaried and get out.
00:35:55.000Okay, and then he came out and he suggested that he was going to spend all this money that he
00:36:04.000raises from his primary opponents getting out. He was going to spend all that on ballot harvesting.
00:36:08.000Now, there's only one problem with this.
00:36:11.000You'd be kind of foolish to believe him.
00:36:20.000His campaign was run basically from 30,000 feet, and then he relied on Hillary Clinton's under-turnout to actually win the election.
00:36:28.000Again, my favorite stat from the 2016 election is that in 2016, Donald Trump won fewer absolute votes in Wisconsin than Mitt Romney won in 2012.
00:36:36.000But Donald Trump won Wisconsin and Mitt Romney lost Wisconsin.
00:36:39.000The 2016 election was just as much, I think more, about lack of turnout for Hillary as it was about additional turnout for Donald Trump.
00:36:47.000In 2020, he didn't have a ballot harvesting operation.
00:36:49.000He actively told people not to vote early.
00:36:51.000And then he did that again in 2021 in the Senate runoff race in Georgia, both of them.
00:36:58.000The Republicans ended up losing, then handing control of both the Senate and the House to Joe Biden, who proceeded to spend six to seven trillion dollars.
00:37:04.000So do you think that Donald Trump is going to spend tens or hundreds of millions of dollars on a ballot harvesting operation?
00:37:09.000An operation to actually get out the vote?
00:37:11.000The reason I have doubts is because we now have a story that Donald Trump has spent from his campaign super PACs, or his campaign super PACs have spent on his behalf, tens of millions of dollars on legal fees.
00:37:22.000Now that's not what you're giving money to.
00:37:24.000You're not actually- Donald Trump is a billionaire.
00:37:27.000Now, I think that a lot of the legal problems that Trump is facing, some of them are of his own making, like the classified documents nonsense down in Florida.
00:37:34.000He could have just handed those documents back to the National Archive and none of this ever would have happened.
00:37:37.000But many of these legal troubles are not of his own making.
00:37:39.000That'd be like the Manhattan DA going after him for Stormy Daniels nonsense.
00:37:43.000It's of his own making in the sense that he shouldn't have shook Stormy Daniels and then paid her to be quiet.
00:37:46.000But it's not of his making in the sense that it's a legally specious case.
00:37:50.000But even assuming that there are tons of bills that are being incurred by Trump on a personal level, That are frivolous and that shouldn't have to be incurred?
00:37:59.000When you give money to Trump's campaign, do you think you're paying his legal bills?
00:38:02.000Or do you think you're paying for the ballot harvesting?
00:38:04.000Because his legal bills, that didn't help you win the election.
00:38:14.000And he can use that to defeat Joe Biden.
00:38:16.000But that's not actually where the money is going.
00:38:17.000According to the New York Times, the political action committee former President Trump is using to pay his legal bills faced such staggering costs this year, it requested a refund on a $60 million contribution it made to another group supporting the Republican frontrunner, according to two people familiar with the matter.
00:38:30.000The decision signals a potential money crisis for Trump, who has so far refused to pay his own voluminous bills directly.
00:38:36.000He's also avoided creating a legal defense fund for himself and people have become entangled in the various investigations related to him.
00:38:41.000So he could have created a legal defense fund and you could have given money to the legal defense fund to spend on his legal bills.
00:38:45.000But no, he knows you're not going to give money to his legal defense fund.
00:38:48.000He knows that you want to give money to his campaign, so he'll beat Biden.
00:38:52.000That's the reason why you care about Donald Trump, presumably, is you don't want Joe Biden to be president anymore, not that you care about how Donald Trump handles paying his big-ticket lawyers.
00:39:02.000The refund was sought as the political action committee Save America spent more than $40 million in legal fees incurred by Trump and witnesses in various legal cases related to him this year alone, according to another person familiar with the matter.
00:39:13.000The numbers will be part of the Save America Federal Election Commission filing expected to be made public today.
00:39:18.000That $40 million was in addition to $16 million that Save America spent in the previous two years on legal fees.
00:39:24.000Since then, of course, Trump has been indicted twice and has expanded the size of his legal team.
00:39:28.000His two co-defendants in the case related to his retention of classified material work for him, total legal spending $56 million.
00:39:35.000So when you donate money to Trump, do you think that's going toward ballot harvesting?
00:39:43.000Because, again, you can elect Trump in the primaries.
00:39:45.000Data suggests that a lot of people do like Trump in the primaries.
00:39:47.000The current state of the race, if you look at the latest polling that is out today, suggests that Donald Trump is a New York Times-Siena College Poll of likely Republican primary electorate.
00:39:57.000it. 54% for Trump, 17% DeSantis, 17% others, 13% no answer.
00:40:04.000So DeSantis is the closest person and he's not within 30 points of him.
00:40:09.000you And so the primary base seems like they are cruising toward Trump.
00:40:32.000That means that the remaining 37% would have to split in favor of one other candidate, not in favor of like 10 other candidates, in favor of one other candidate by essentially a margin of 2 to 1 in order to defeat Trump in the primaries.
00:40:47.0000% of the MAGA category say that Trump has committed any serious federal crime.
00:40:54.000Only 2% said he even did something wrong in his handling of classified documents.
00:40:59.000And again, when you look at the remaining half, the two-thirds who say that they are persuadable or not open to Trump, well, even among those members of the Republican electorate, they disagree on the issues.
00:41:14.000It's gonna be very difficult for anybody to consolidate this, according to Nate Cohen looking at the data over at the New York Times.
00:41:19.000DeSantis' support right now is split between those who are still open to Trump and those who are not.
00:41:25.000Overall, DeSantis holds just 32% of voters who aren't considering Trump.
00:41:29.000Right, so that means that you'd have to assume that all 25% who say they're not open to Trump would shift into the DeSantis category.
00:41:34.000Right now, they're split, with Chris Christie, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy each attracting between 5% and 10% of that vote.
00:41:42.000So once again, it looks like the field is very, very split.
00:41:45.000So Trump has an advantage in the primaries, no question.
00:41:48.000The problem is, does that translate to an actual general election victory?
00:41:51.000Is anybody even thinking about, is Trump even thinking about that at this point?
00:41:55.000What is the case that Trump is making for why he will do better in 2020 other than Joe Biden's failures?
00:42:01.000By the way, this is exactly the same case that Joe Biden is making about Trump.
00:42:04.000The case that Biden is making about Trump is I can be as terrible as I want to be.
00:42:09.000I can be as foolish and out of it as I want to be.
00:42:13.000I mean, there's a picture of Joe Biden that's floating around the internet of him on the beach in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware over the weekend.
00:42:20.000He's an 80-year-old man walking around in his swim trunks and no shirt with sunglasses and a backwards baseball cap, and it looks just like how you'd imagine.
00:43:03.000Okay, meanwhile, there's a lot of uncertainty out there about the economy and you sense the sort of growing warmth in the press for the idea that we're going to escape a recession because the inflation data came in last week and it's coming in, you know, kind of close to normal.
00:43:15.000We're now back down toward the 2% number that people are looking for from the Federal Reserve.
00:43:19.000And it seems as though the economy is sort of defying gravity at this point because the GDP is still clocking in at 2.4, 2.6%, which are good numbers, right?
00:43:28.000According to the Wall Street Journal, recent good news on inflation has ignited a debate over how much central banks' interest rate increases are responsible.
00:43:34.000The answer matters for where inflation and interest rates are headed.
00:43:37.000The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in the past week lifted their benchmark interest rates to 22-year highs and left open the door to additional increases.
00:43:43.000If higher rates were not responsible for progress on inflation today, that suggests central banks could be able to lower them before a painful recession sets in.
00:43:50.000So this is really the question, is whether the reason inflation came down is because of the increases in the interest rates, or whether it's supply chains basically healing themselves.
00:43:57.000If it's because the supply chains are healing themselves, theoretically, if we start to go into recession, then the central banks could theoretically lower those interest rates again without jacking up the inflation, if it is from the low interest rates in the first place, and that's what created the bubble.
00:44:10.000Then lowering the inflation rates, lowering the interest rates right now would create another secondary bubble of inflation.
00:44:15.000But there's a more significant problem on the horizon.
00:44:21.000So, last week, there was a lot of talk about the GDP coming in, and the GDP stat came in, and everybody was very, very excited about how it came in.
00:44:31.000Analysts had suggested it was going to be a lot lower than it actually showed.
00:44:36.000Apparently, the Gross Domestic Product grew at a 2.4% annual rate last quarter, while analysts had been expecting a reading of 1.5%.
00:44:43.000And so a lot of people were saying that, well, soft landing might now be possible.
00:44:49.000The reason GDP is a bad stat is because it is about consumption.
00:44:52.000GDP measures the amount of consumption, end-user consumption, in an economy.
00:44:56.000You pay a price at the store to buy a product, that goes into GDP.
00:44:59.000The government spends a crap load of money on things, that goes into GDP.
00:45:04.000Well, the problem with that is it doesn't actually answer for how business dynamics works.
00:45:10.000It's a Keynesian model of how the economy works.
00:45:13.000It assumes that the more consumption there is, the better the economy is doing.
00:45:16.000It assumes that if you buy a bunch of hamburgers, the economy is doing amazing, and if you buy fewer hamburgers, it's because the economy is doing poorly.
00:45:23.000It also imagines that if the government spends a crap load of money, like unprecedented amounts of money, that that means the economy is doing great, because all of that gets counted in the GDP.
00:45:32.000The better statistic is something called gross output.
00:45:35.000So gross output has been a statistic that's been in semi-wide use since about 2014.
00:45:40.000There's an economist named Mark Skousen who wrote about it in 2014, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis started using gross output as an alternative for GDP.
00:46:01.000The measure of an economy's gross output has been around since the 1930s.
00:46:06.000Gross output essentially measures the amount of business investment.
00:46:10.000It's the make economy, the total sales from the production of raw materials through intermediate producers to final wholesale and retail trade.
00:46:16.000So instead of just looking at all of the product that is bought by you at the store, it looks at the product that is bought all the way along the chain.
00:46:25.000And so if you're buying a chair, it looks at who paid for the wood, and then who paid for the planks of wood, and then who paid for the screws and the planks of wood to put them together, and then who paid for the varnish to make sure, right?
00:46:36.000So it's a broader measure of the output of an economy because it includes actual business investment.
00:46:40.000So Skrusen says, Why pay attention to gross output?
00:46:43.000For starters, research I published in 1990 shows it does a better job of measuring total economic activity.
00:46:48.000GDP is a useful measure of a country's standard of living and economic growth, but its focus on final output omits intermediate production and, as a result, creates much mischief in our understanding of how the economy works.
00:46:58.000In particular, it has led to a misguided Keynesian notion that consumer and government spending drive the economy rather than saving, business investment, technology, and entrepreneurship.
00:47:07.000So if you look at GDP data, GDP data always suggests that consumer spending is the number one element.
00:47:12.000So this is why you get statistics about consumer confidence.
00:47:15.000When consumer confidence is low, the economy must be about to tank.
00:47:17.000When people are spending less money at the store, that means the economy is about to tank.
00:47:21.000And then the next biggest measures of the GDP would be government expenditures and then business investment third.
00:47:27.000But in reality, when you flip that and you look at gross output, what you find is that suddenly it's only about 40% of the economy.
00:47:36.000Business outlays are substantially larger than consumer spending in the economy.
00:47:40.000They make about 50% of economic activity.
00:47:44.000So, in other words, government spending is not a giant, giant chunk of gross output.
00:47:51.000And government spending that goes to direct benefits that then is spent, that is a huge part of GDP, but it's not as big a part of gross output.
00:47:58.000Because the reality is the way the economy works, and this has been the biggest argument in economics for at least 150 years, is whether economies are driven by consumers, by you buying a product, or are they driven by people making the product.
00:48:10.000The Keynesian demand-siders basically suggest that because you spend money, someone makes a product for you.
00:48:18.000Supply-siders say you generate new, better, innovative products, and that makes people want to buy them.
00:48:23.000So the argument in favor of supply-side economics, which is something I subscribe to, because number one, I think it's truer, and number two, it pushes for a more liberal, free-market view of the economy, is that when people are allowed to keep their own money, they produce new and better services.
00:48:36.000What a consumer-based economy cannot do is create new product.
00:48:40.000It is the supply-sider who creates new product.
00:48:42.000The entrepreneur who creates new product.
00:48:44.000This is also why you see a gap between how Democrats talk about the economy and how Republicans talk about the economy.
00:48:48.000Conservatives very often, when they talk about the economy, they talk about the value of the entrepreneur.
00:48:52.000Which is really a credit to Joseph Schumpeter, the Viennese economist, who really talked a lot about what he called creative destruction.
00:49:01.000The entrepreneur comes along and, yeah, breaks old products and makes amazing new products.
00:49:23.000So what's more interesting about that?
00:49:26.000The creation of the new product or who buys it?
00:49:28.000So GDP tends to measure economic strength by who's buying the phone, as opposed to measuring economic strength by who invested in the phone, who's putting money into the phone, who's creating the phone.
00:49:37.000Because the idea is that supply In essence, we'll create demand for a new and better product, right?
00:49:43.000As Henry Ford suggested, if I had listened to the consumer, I just would have come up with a better horse.
00:50:32.000Recession is still in the near future.
00:50:35.000So again, I like looking at gross output.
00:50:37.000I think it is a much better measure of where the economy is because how I spend as a business person is going to matter a lot to my employees.
00:50:44.000It's going to matter a lot to the consumers of this company, right?
00:50:46.000That's true for everybody who has lots of employees and lots of consumers.
00:50:50.000So when you're being given happy talk about how the economy is going great because of GDP, Number one thing to check, check the gross output number, which has been basically flat for the last couple to three quarters.
00:51:01.000Okay, meanwhile, why does that matter?
00:51:03.000It matters because when it comes to a general election, yeah, Joe Biden's personal corruption is going to matter.
00:51:07.000Yeah, Joe Biden's personality is going to matter.
00:51:09.000But you know what's going to matter even more?
00:51:10.000If we are in recession, Joe Biden is in serious trouble.
00:51:13.000If we are not in recession, Joe Biden probably fails to re-elect.
00:51:16.000Very, very difficult to lose a re-elect when your economy is good.
00:51:18.000It looks like the economy is going to be bad.
00:51:20.000Somebody's able to argue against that.
00:51:23.000This is why one of the great frustrations is that many of the things that make Ron DeSantis an excellent governor also make him a politician who doesn't have the pizzazz or sizzle of Donald Trump.
00:51:33.000Namely, he just does the thing, right?
00:51:36.000Governor DeSantis' great win as governor of Florida Yeah, there's been all the talk about woke and all the talk about fighting education.
00:52:16.000And that's a boring message, but it's also one that tends to win general elections.
00:52:19.000The message that is a lot more controversial is the character message, especially when you have character flaws of your own and when you're in the middle of legal battles that will likely culminate in actual trials with you in the dock in May of 2024, which is what's very likely to happen right now.
00:52:36.000Ron DeSantis talks like you actually want a politician to talk, like, about the things.
00:52:41.000But is that what people want in a primary?
00:53:05.000But when I talk to small business people, I almost never hear about that.
00:53:09.000I hear about the growth of government and what government's doing to choke off their ability to just run their businesses the way they see fit.
00:53:17.000And the bureaucratic state, the administrative state, that gives an advantage to the big guys.
00:53:41.000And also, let me remind you, it's super important.
00:53:44.000This is the sort of stuff where if you're on the middle, you're on that fence in the 2024 election, and it's somebody like DeSantis versus someone like Biden, and Biden's run the economy to the ground, and you have somebody else on the other side saying, here are the things I'll do to fix the economy, that might actually matter an awful lot.
00:53:56.000Because it turns out number one issue for most Americans when it comes to presidential elections, the state of the economy.
00:54:01.000Okay, time for a quick thing I like and then a couple of things that I hate.
00:54:04.000So, Things that I like over the weekend,
00:54:06.000I was reading a really fun novel by Andrew Weir.
00:54:09.000Andrew Weir is the guy who wrote The Martian.
00:54:46.000I'll just say it's a really fun read if you liked The Martian.
00:54:48.000Actually, The Martian is a very simple, high-concept premise, right, which is, you know, man on Mars trying to survive.
00:54:54.000This one is even a little bit more high-concept because it is save all humanity by journeying to a foreign star and then hooking up with alien life.
00:55:04.000It's really, it's a really enjoyable book.
00:55:06.000Again, you can tell he's having fun writing it, and so it's a lot of fun to read as well.
00:55:09.000So if you're looking for like a summer beach read, That'll teach you something about physics and about chemistry and about science generally.
00:55:16.000We're great for if you try and get your like 16 year old in school interested in science, this would be a really good book for them to read.
00:55:22.000Okay, time for some quick things that I hate.
00:55:35.000You have to treat everybody with respect, but I'm not going to treat it with respect when a man spends $14,000 to transform himself into Akali.
00:55:46.000A Japanese native has now transformed himself into a canine after forking out more than $14,000 for a custom-made Kali costume.
00:55:53.000The private citizen says the unusual garment has helped actualize his dream of becoming an animal.
00:55:57.000Ah, we have reached the end of expressive individualism.
00:56:01.000Robert Bella predicted that expressive individualism, the idea that what is inside you is the most important thing in all humanity, that that is the end of the individualist era.
00:56:11.000Men dressing up as dogs to roll around.
00:56:14.000I mean, I'm not sure you could get any more literal with the man returning to the animals sort of metaphors that we, the biblically minded, tend to use.
00:56:20.000But here we are, a man who spent $14,000 to dress up as a dog so that he can roll around on the streets with other dogs and presumably smell their butts.