As data begins to trickle in about the true case fatality rate for coronavirus, governors begin to talk about reopening the case, President Trump goes to full-scale war with the press, and Bernie finally endorses Joe Biden, and by the way, so does Obama. Ben Shapiro's full take on it all on this episode of The Ben Shapiro Show with Ben Shapiro (listen to find out what he's talking about, and why you should be worried about it, too). Subscribe to the show to get immediate access to all of Ben's latest podcasts and listen to them wherever you get your podcasts. The show is brought to you by ExpressVPN. Do not leave your internet activity unprotected. Go check them out right now. You can't afford to leave your stuff unprotected? Go check out ExpressVPN right here. If you visit my special link below, you get an extra month of protection for free! You get a 30-day no-questions-asked-back guarantee, but the only virus developed and supported 100% in the United States is Coronavirus. Go check it out right here! Ben's Note: This episode is sponsored by PCmatic. PCmatic is a company that makes software that can block modern cyber threats, so you can t afford to be left out of the loop. by using their whitelisted program. Check out PCmatic! go check out their service right now, and you get 50% off your hard drive! and get 50 bucks per year for a year! - you can't get any better than you can get a $50 per month for $50, you're not going to get any other option? go to PCmatic, right here, they're giving you access to a better version of the latest version of Windows 7, they make it all that you can do it anywhere else, they'll give you a better than that? You'll get it all you need to keep up to 100% of what you're gonna get, you won't have access to the latest in the latest and the best of the best in the best, no questions asked, and they're going to be able to do it, you'll get the most of everything you need, no matter what they're doing it, no longer have to pay for it, right there, anywhere else in the world, anywhere in the whole place you go, they say it's PCmatic?
00:00:00.000As data begins to trickle in about the true case fatality rate for coronavirus, governors begin to talk about reopening, President Trump goes to full-scale war with the press, and Bernie finally endorses Biden.
00:00:54.000When you see a friend in need, you wait for every single other human being in the universe to attempt to help that friend.
00:01:00.000And then at the very end, when they don't need the help anymore, that's when you sound off.
00:01:04.000I mean, just what a wonderful relationship those two must have.
00:01:08.000We'll get to that a little bit later on in the show.
00:01:10.000First, we're going to get to everything coronavirus related.
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00:02:51.000Okay, so the continuing question right now is when we And this has led to a pretty major conflict between President Trump and the governors.
00:03:01.000The governors suggesting that they have the authority to reopen.
00:03:03.000President Trump claiming he has the authority to reopen.
00:03:06.000But the big question, of course, is when the hell are we supposed to reopen and how the hell are we supposed to reopen in the absence of data?
00:03:12.000And I've been saying this over and over and over.
00:03:22.000Well, that means they're 5% ineffective.
00:03:25.000You could be getting a 5% false positive rate for people who are quote-unquote asymptomatic, and then you end up with the perception that the disease is significantly less deadly than it actually is.
00:03:33.000Because you think a lot of people have tested positive who actually never had it, and none of them died because they never actually had it.
00:03:38.000But then you're like, oh, this thing isn't so deadly, right?
00:03:41.000On the other hand, if you don't have any data gathered at all, then you are simply stabbing in the dark at what exactly The true case fatality rate is for COVID-19.
00:03:51.000And one thing we do know is that all the models that have been used up to now kind of suck.
00:03:55.000So the University of Sydney has a study out today led by an international group of data scientists and their center for translational data science found that over 70% of US states had death rates inconsistent with the IMHE predictions.
00:04:10.000So remember that famous UW study, right?
00:04:12.000The one that everybody was citing, the White House was citing it, saying 100,000 to 240,000 people could die.
00:04:17.000And the IMHU study has now been updated again to say that it'll be closer to 70,000 dead by the time we hit August.
00:04:22.000Well, the University of Sydney Center for Translational Data Science say, um, the study just sucks.
00:04:28.000Basically, they say the study is just terrible.
00:04:30.000Apparently, this group of statisticians from the University of Sydney, Northwestern University, and University of Texas have collaborated to fully investigate the predictive performance of the COVID-19 model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
00:04:43.000And what they found is that the thing stinks.
00:04:45.000Right, 70% of US states had an actual death rate outside the 95% prediction interval for that state, casting doubt on whether the model is suitable to inform COVID-19 resource allocation at all.
00:04:56.000The model, which provides forecasts on a state-by-state basis across the United States, has been circulated widely by the media and on social media.
00:05:03.000It was cited by the White House directly on March 31st.
00:05:05.000University of Sydney Statistician Director of the Center for Translational Data Science, Professor Sally Cripps, says the discrepancy between predicted deaths and the actual death rate in the United States has serious implications for the U.S.
00:05:16.000government's future planning and provision of ventilators, PPE, and the staffing of medical professionals equipped to respond to the pandemic.
00:05:22.000They say the thing is basically useless.
00:05:24.000Professor Martin Tanner from Northwestern University, he says, I'm concerned that the UW-IHME model has had difficulty in predicting the next day.
00:05:32.000How will the predictions fare over the long term?
00:05:35.000They usually say that statisticians give a range called the prediction interval in which the actual future values are likely to lie, and that involves estimating uncertainty.
00:05:43.000A 95% prediction interval is an interval where we would expect 95% of actual future values to lie.
00:05:48.000So with 95% certainty, it will lie between one value on the low end and one value on the high end.
00:05:53.000And this study is just wrong, like a lot of the time.
00:05:56.000Only 30% of US states have actual death counts lying within the 95% prediction interval.
00:06:01.00070% of the actual death counts lie outside the 95% prediction interval.
00:06:05.000So in other words, the study's garbage, right?
00:06:07.000That's what the University of Sydney is saying.
00:06:09.000And that was used as the largest basis for all of the decision-making going on about lockdown.
00:06:15.000That's not the only information that suggests that the information we've been using has been highly flawed.
00:06:19.000Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA commissioner, he tweeted out a study That was quoted by the New England Journal of Medicine, and he points out, more data on the COVID-19 attack rate in New York.
00:06:29.000Doctors screened all expectant moms at one New York hospital, and they found that out of 210 mothers, 29 were asymptomatic and positive.
00:06:36.000Exposure in New York to COVID could be very high, given emerging data on the scope of prevalence.
00:06:40.000This suggests that in hotspots like New York City, the level of COVID-19 exposure and rates of some immunity once serology studies are in place could be really, really high.
00:06:49.000Not the 50-66% needed to confer herd immunity, but much more than 10% in hotspots like part of New York City.
00:06:56.000According to the actual statistics, what it shows is that of the pregnant women who came in and they were tested across the board because they're pregnant, they want to make sure that the baby did not get COVID-19.
00:07:17.000But that does suggest that at least in New York City, the prevalence is extremely high.
00:07:21.000Because again, a lot of these women were really asymptomatic.
00:07:24.000And if those statistics were to hold, if you were to see basically for every one symptomatic person, you were to see seven or eight people who are asymptomatic, then the death rates are way, way lower for COVID-19 than anybody has suggested previously.
00:07:38.000Because again, people keep using case fatality rate incorrectly.
00:07:41.000People keep looking at the fact that there are about 200,000 diagnosed people in New York State and about 10,000 dead people in New York State, and they say, oh, well, that means 10,000 over 200,000, that means there's like a 5% death rate if you get this thing in New York State.
00:07:54.000And let's take that stat that was being used here by the hospital.
00:07:58.000Okay, let's say that approximately, we're doing some rough math, some rough mental math here, that for every symptomatic person, there were seven asymptomatic people.
00:08:06.000That means that not 200,000 people had this thing in New York state, that probably it's a lot more, right?
00:08:11.000Probably it's 1.4 million people had that.
00:08:13.000Well, 1.4 million people, 10,000 dying out of 1.4 million is a lot less, okay?
00:08:21.000Then now you're talking about, now you're talking about a death rate of 0.4 million.
00:08:27.000point of 0.7 percent 10,000 over 1.4 million okay so if it's point if it's 0.7 percent 0.7 of 8 percent you're talking about definitely higher than the you're talking about definitely higher than the flu but it's more in line with kind of south korean values because what you've seen in south korea is 0.6 percent death rate and that is heavily located among the elderly and people who have obesity
00:08:51.000By the way, the number one factor for coming down with a case of SARS COVID-19 that lands you in the hospital is obesity.
00:08:59.000Obesity is the number one factor according to medical sources at this point.
00:09:04.000And that would be clinical obesity, meaning a body mass index above 30.
00:09:07.000So if you're overweight, that doesn't necessarily mean you're obese.
00:09:10.000Overweight is a different classification in the body mass index than obesity is.
00:09:15.000So that New England Journal of Medicine study tends to show that there is very, very high prevalence of this thing.
00:09:21.000Which also means it's going to be extremely difficult to engage in any testing regimen over the course of 330 million people that locks everything down.
00:09:28.000Instead, what you're going to have to do is probably end up with some sort of tranching scenario.
00:09:32.000Not a scenario where you give immunity certificates again.
00:09:35.000Even the immunity certificates are not Number one, they're not a good idea because you will end up with people faking immunity certificates just to go back to work if they're asymptomatic.
00:09:43.000But beyond that, and not only do you have privacy concerns, beyond all of that, you could have a situation.
00:09:50.000Where you are testing tons and tons and tons of people and they are coming up negative because you're testing them in the wrong area.
00:09:57.000And as we just discussed, the antibody tests are 5% false positive rate or 5% false negative rate, so the same issue applies there.
00:10:03.000So the idea that you could give somebody an immunity certificate and they're not actually immune, they've never actually had the thing before, that's a fairly significant possibility.
00:10:10.000And those numbers look enormous when you're talking about testing 100 million people.
00:10:14.000Which means that in the end, as I've been suggesting, we may end up with something that is just quick and dirty.
00:10:18.000Quick and dirty to get the economy going.
00:10:20.000And what that is, is if you are elderly, if you are in ill health, if you are obese, if you're clinically obese, if you have a clinical heart condition, if you are suffering from an immunological deficiency, if you have any of these things, then you will probably be told to self-quarantine and stay at home until a vaccine is developed.
00:10:38.000And if you are young, and if you are healthy, you will be told to go back to work.
00:10:42.000You'll be told that you probably shouldn't congregate in super large groups, but you should be able to go back to work and you should socially distance as much as possible.
00:10:48.000You should wear a mask and that's how we all go back to work.
00:10:50.000That is the most likely scenario at this point because I think that all of the talk about contact tracing, again, if the prevalence is 14% in the population, ain't no contact tracing happening there.
00:10:59.000You're just not going to be able to contact trace.
00:11:02.000Especially because, again, that does raise some fairly serious privacy concerns.
00:11:05.000We discussed yesterday on the program some of the solutions being put forward, including you download an app and then you're automatically notified if somebody who came within a particular distance of you is going to, comes down with COVID-19.
00:11:18.000That's not going to be good enough, frankly, because not everybody's going to download the app unless you make it mandatory, in which case you have serious Fourth Amendment concerns.
00:11:25.000Now, I have a little bit more good news for you in just one second.
00:11:29.000We'll get to the possibilities here, because again, in the absence of certainty and in the knowledge that we cannot resolve the uncertainty, we're going to have to make some decisions.
00:11:39.000Okay, right now I've been willing to kind of hold off with the belief that the scientists are going to come up with some more data that's going to allow us to make more specific decisions.
00:11:49.000At a certain point, we're going to have to say, okay, here is what we think our risk level is based on percentage of the population, based on who you are, based on your youth, based on your health conditions.
00:11:58.000And then we're going to have to say to people, you're going to have to make best available decisions about saving your own life.
00:12:03.000By the way, that's called living human life generally.
00:12:05.000That's called freedom, is that you are going to have to make decisions about what is riskiest for you.
00:12:09.000If you're a young person who is immunocompromised, you will, I think, I don't think the government has to mandate you stay home.
00:12:14.000I think that you will be staying home.
00:12:16.000I think that you will understand that this is a risky situation for you.
00:12:22.000First, let us talk about the fact that if you are not protecting your data online, you are making a very large-scale mistake.
00:12:28.000You need to be protecting your data online right now.
00:12:31.000The simple fact of the matter is that as we spend tons and tons and tons of time online, hackers are looking for all the data that you are expending online.
00:12:37.000You're using your credit card to buy stuff from Amazon every single day.
00:12:40.000And that means that hackers, this is like a paradise for them, you need to protect your online activity.
00:12:45.000This is why ExpressVPN has developed a technology called Trusted Server that makes it impossible for even their servers to log any of your information.
00:13:33.000So by the way, when I mention the prevalence of the disease in places like New York City, recognize it's going to be extraordinarily high in New York because of the population density.
00:13:41.000New York is not like other areas of America.
00:13:43.000And to pretend that we have to use a one-size-fits-all policy with regard to vast swaths of the United States, where population density is one one-hundredth of what population density is in New York City is idiotic.
00:13:54.000You should not be treating a rural area of Kentucky the same way that you are treating a big city in New York.
00:13:58.000By the way, you shouldn't be treating LA like you treat New York.
00:14:01.000Okay, LA has had two days, something like 300 deaths total.
00:14:07.000Like, New York has seen literally thousands of deaths.
00:14:10.000New York City, so New York State, has seen, at this point, a little over 10,000 deaths.
00:14:16.000The entire state of California, which is 40 million people, has seen 731 deaths total.
00:14:21.000The city of Los Angeles has seen approximately 300 deaths.
00:14:52.000And treating the rest of the world like it's going to be Wuhan or like it is going to be Northern Italy is foolish as well.
00:14:57.000You have to control for differences in population.
00:14:59.000You have to control for differences in living patterns.
00:15:01.000You have to control for intergenerational contact and all the rest of this stuff.
00:15:05.000And that's very difficult to control for.
00:15:07.000And you have to look at how other countries are handling this sort of stuff because there are differences in how other countries are handling this stuff at this time.
00:15:14.000To pretend that every country is handling this thing with equal sort of capacity is just not true.
00:15:22.000Again, I'm going to note that if you take a look at Sweden, everybody is ripping on Sweden.
00:15:26.000Look how Sweden is experiencing the spike.
00:15:28.000Again, you cannot evaluate whether Sweden did the right thing in keeping most of their country open until you have about a year of experience.
00:15:36.000Because right now Sweden has had about a thousand deaths out of 11,000 diagnosed cases.
00:15:41.000And if you look at other surrounding countries, You know, they're doing slightly better, but on a per million population basis, they're not really doing all that much better.
00:15:51.000Switzerland has had about 26,000 diagnosed cases and about 1,100 deaths.
00:15:54.000Netherlands has had about 27,000 diagnosed cases and about 3,000 deaths.
00:15:59.000So Netherlands is not doing significantly better than Sweden is on a percentage basis.
00:16:04.000So the notion that Sweden is just getting blown up because they decided to be a little bit more open and basically do what I've been talking about for the United States, the evidence does not suggest that yet.
00:16:13.000Also, we have to determine whether in fact it is the lockdowns that are burning this thing out or whether there's a natural burnout period of viruses because we really have yet to see a virus that just continues to span the globe over and over and over and over until it wipes out all of human population or until everybody gets it.
00:16:26.000We'll talk in a second about a chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and National Council for Research and Development.
00:16:32.000He's suggesting there might be a natural kind of terminus to this thing, which would be the best news of all, obviously.
00:16:37.000First, let's talk about the fact, sleep quality, hard to come by these days.
00:16:41.000I will admit that my sleep quality is disturbed.
00:16:43.000You spend a lot of time thinking about what's going on in the world, and it's hard to fall asleep.
00:16:46.000And then you have kids who wake up every single night, literally every single night.
00:16:50.000Last night, it was my daughter waking us up at 3.30 to inform us that a blanket had fallen off of her bed, which was obviously an emergency.
00:16:56.000And then it was our newborn waking us up because she wanted to eat.
00:16:59.000So if you're having trouble sleeping, you really value the moments when you are allowed to sleep.
00:17:03.000And this is why I need my Helix Sleep mattress.
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00:17:16.000Helix Sleep is rated the number one mattress by GQ and Wired Magazine.
00:17:19.000CNN has called it the most comfortable mattress they've ever slept on.
00:17:22.000Just head on over to HelixSleep.com slash Ben.
00:17:50.000Okay, so in other news that could theoretically be good, there is a story that comes out of Israel from the Israel National News Agency.
00:17:59.000According to analysis of international graphs and comparisons, Major General Professor Isaac Ben-Israel concludes, it is possible we are already in the final stages of the coronavirus epidemic.
00:18:07.000Professor Ben-Israel is the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development.
00:18:12.000He's head of the security studies program at Tel Aviv University.
00:18:18.000He points out that when you measure the rate of additional patients to existing patients, the trends can be clearly identified and adjusted in all countries.
00:18:24.000If, at the rate of the beginning of the epidemic, the rate of hospitalization was increasing at a rapid rate, this reality has changed radically pretty much every day since.
00:18:32.000And you've seen this consistently across countries, is a flattening of the curve.
00:18:35.000He says the incidence of patients was greater by the day.
00:18:37.000This was during the first four weeks after the epidemic was discovered in Israel.
00:18:40.000As of the sixth week, the increase in the number of patients has been moderate, peaking in the sixth week at 700 patients per day.
00:18:47.000Today, there are only 300 new patients.
00:18:48.000In two weeks, it will reach zero and there will be no more new patients.
00:18:52.000He says this is how it is all over the world, in countries where they took closure steps like Italy, and in countries that didn't have closures like Taiwan or Singapore.
00:18:58.000In such and such countries, there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and then immediately thereafter, moderation until the eighth week, it disappears.
00:19:05.000Now, that is the most optimistic vision, of course.
00:19:08.000It is possible there is a second wave because we just don't have the time lag information at this point.
00:19:13.000With that said, that would be an optimistic vision.
00:19:15.000Also, it is possible that there will be a reduction in the virus and the viral load that is carried when we all get outside during the warm weather.
00:19:23.000See, there's this idea that warm weather kills the virus.
00:19:25.000Warm weather does have an effect on viruses generally, but it is also true that when you spend a lot of time outdoors and not indoors, that is actually better for you.
00:19:31.000So let me point out that the government's policy, particularly in places like California where it's getting warm already, to keep you inside is almost full-scale idiocy.
00:19:40.000Okay, what you really should be is socially distancing outside.
00:19:43.000Sunlight, fresh air, distance from human beings, that is what is going to allow this thing to die out.
00:19:49.000And the fact is that the more time you spend outside and not in, you know, a cramped, confined space with other human beings, less chance you are going to infect other human beings.
00:19:58.000The Wall Street Journal has a piece today talking about this, asking whether warmer temperatures bring a coronavirus reprieve.
00:20:04.000Many scientists are predicting a reduced spread in warm months, but it's hard to tell.
00:20:07.000The good news is that the novel coronavirus comes from a family that can't take the heat.
00:20:10.000Coronaviruses in general are enveloped in a coat of fat and protein that tends to lose its shape at high temperatures, a process likened to melting that effectively disables the virus.
00:20:18.000They also tend to survive longest in conditions of low humidity.
00:20:23.000If you look at the confirmed cases per one million people, it is much higher in kind of cold countries than it is in warm countries.
00:20:31.000The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 appears to behave like its siblings in this regard.
00:20:35.000A team of researchers at University of Hong Kong who studied the virus in a lab found it was stable in cool temperatures of around 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
00:20:41.000It deteriorated over time when stored at 72 degrees Fahrenheit, which implied the virus would perish quicker on surfaces like door handles when it is hot out.
00:20:49.000Many scientists predict reduced spread and warmer temperatures.
00:21:14.000And I don't think it's good for the economy.
00:21:15.000And again, to pretend that you don't care about human life, When you're talking about the destructions of ten of mil- like, there are people who are going to food banks who never thought in their entire- hard-working human beings who never thought in their entire life they'd have to rely on a check from the government or a can from a food bank.
00:21:30.000Literally never thought this, because they wouldn't have had to in the absence of a massive government shutdown.
00:21:34.000And now is not the time to discuss, because we don't have the data, whether the shutdown was completely useful or whether it was a good idea or not.
00:21:41.000The question now is how we get out of all of this.
00:21:44.000And as I say, I think that a lot of these sort of more high-tech solutions, you know, vast testing, millions of tests, tests being run out of employers.
00:21:51.000We're testing right now in the United States something like 130,000 people a day.
00:21:55.000How many people would you have to test per day in the United States to ensure that nobody was out in public with COVID-19?
00:22:01.000Instead, perhaps, we should be looking, as the summer approaches, toward keeping our scientists working hard on coming up with medication that mitigates the effects of this thing, keeping our scientists full-scale, full-bore going on a vaccine, and then letting people who are healthy go back to work understanding there's a risk factor that, if you get it, that there's a shot that something bad could happen to you.
00:22:21.000But dividing the popu- Like, it is still amazing to me That when we discuss overall case fatality rate, we're still not being told every day by the government what the case fatality rate is for different types of people.
00:22:33.000Not on a racial-ethnic basis, which is what everybody seems to want to know in the media, the racial-ethnic basis.
00:22:38.000I care a lot less about the racial-ethnic basis because it doesn't identify, in cross-cutting fashion, in the strongest possible correlative fashion, with risk factor.
00:22:47.000It may be true that it is riskier to be black and get COVID-19 than it is to be white and get COVID-19.
00:22:53.000It is significantly, significantly riskier to be obese and get COVID-19 than it is to be not obese.
00:22:57.000If you're looking for correlative factors that allow us to make decisions about who should go back to work and who should not go back to work, why don't you pick the strongest possible correlations, not the cross-cutting weaker correlations?
00:23:06.000It's just a demonstration of our PC idiocy that we won't discuss the fact that older people are more vulnerable to this thing, which is why they should take more protective measures and we should take more protective measures around them.
00:23:15.000And people with immunocompromised systems should be taking more protective measures.
00:23:20.000And people who are 30 and in good health, yes, is there a risk to you of...
00:23:25.000Is that risk any greater than you driving to work on a normal day?
00:23:28.000Driving 10 miles to work on a normal day Probably not.
00:23:32.000Seriously, if you're 30 years old and you're not living in New York City, the chances, and you're healthy, the chances that you're going to die from COVID-19 are, I would imagine, about the same as being killed in a car accident.
00:23:45.000And that's not me suggesting that, by the way.
00:23:48.000That's been his statistical Suggestion.
00:23:51.000By the way, his statistic is even broader.
00:23:52.000He says if you're under 65 and in good health, your chances are about the same of dying in a car accident driving over nine miles in a day as they are of dying from COVID-19.
00:24:02.000So what exactly does reopening look like amidst all this?
00:24:05.000Nobody has actually put forward a plan.
00:24:06.000Some of the plans that are put forward, Morgan Stanley put forward a plan yesterday suggesting that people should only go back to work in the middle of July, which is just not sustainable.
00:24:13.000That's not a thing that's going to happen, especially when you have lockdowns of this nature.
00:24:19.000They are living very different lives right now.
00:24:21.000I have a friend, Bethany Mandel, and she's been tweeting consistently about what it's like for parents who have kids with some sort of Condition.
00:24:29.000If you have kids who have ADD, or kids who have OCD, you have kids who have, who have a problem at home, the reversions that kids are experiencing because they are locked up at home, I mean, like, these are real life situations, and to pretend that suffering is binary, that either you're dead or you're alive, that there isn't a tremendous amount of suffering that goes on for people who lose their livelihoods, their jobs, who watch their kids transform by being locked inside, that's idiocy too, and it's unsympathetic idiocy as well.
00:24:52.000Can we get to I'm reopening the states and what exactly people are talking about in doing so.
00:24:58.000First, let's talk about the fact that you really want to know who is at your door these days, whether or not you are home.
00:25:03.000You want to make sure that the Amazon guy didn't just sneeze on the package and then hand it to you.
00:25:08.000You also want to make sure that as local governments let criminals out of prison, because this is what they are doing, that your property is protected.
00:25:15.000They like to run around on my property and I want to keep an eye on them, but I don't want to be running around outside with them the entire time.
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00:26:21.000Okay, so the big debate that is broken out is how these states are going to be reopened.
00:26:28.000It is unclear exactly what is being planned in terms of reopening.
00:26:33.000There are a series of governors yesterday who announced that they were going to put together a plan for reopening.
00:26:39.000Governors of Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island and Pennsylvania all suggested that they were going to create a committee of public health officials, economic development officials, and their chiefs of staff.
00:26:49.000And on the West Coast, the governors of California, Oregon, and Washington announced a joint approach to reopening economies.
00:26:55.000They said our states will only be effective by working together.
00:27:00.000Governor Gavin Newsom of California said on Tuesday he would outline the California-based thinking on reopening, promised that it would be guided by facts, evidence, and science.
00:27:08.000The city of Los Angeles has already extended stay-at-home order through May 15th.
00:27:12.000It is hard to imagine that it can be extended much beyond that.
00:27:15.000In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott says that he is working closely with the White House on his plan to reopen the state's business, and he's called for a staggered approach in which businesses that have a minimal impact on the spread of virus would open up first.
00:27:27.000Okay, now all of this broke out into the open because governors, rightly so, are talking about reopening their states.
00:27:34.000This should be a local and state process.
00:27:36.000Number one, because local and state governments should be, they're closest to the people, they're closest to their own areas.
00:27:43.000I mean, frankly, I think that there's a good case to be made that mayors should be making these decisions of local towns, looking at what is the population in my area?
00:27:50.000How dense is the population in my area?
00:27:52.000How bad do we know the infection is in my area?
00:27:55.000I mean, those are the people who are most concerned.
00:27:56.000I don't see why somebody 3,000 miles away from me should be making this decision.
00:27:59.000Frankly, I don't see why even Eric Garcetti should be making this decision for people who live in the Valley.
00:28:04.000I just think that I think the local rule is the best rule when it comes to this sort of stuff because populations are indeed at different risks.
00:28:15.000I think aside from a few sort of basic provisos like don't gather in crowds of 50,000 and Try to socially distance and try to wear face masks so you're not infecting other people.
00:28:24.000I think other than that, the national government really doesn't have a lot to say about any of this.
00:28:29.000Nonetheless, President Trump bizarrely yesterday suggested that he was going to go to war with governors over their own policies on this.
00:28:35.000I think he is in the belief that he's going to say, open the economy, and then governors are going to say, I don't want the economy open.
00:28:41.000And then he is going to look as though he doesn't care about human life.
00:28:44.000So he's worried about the idea that governors are going to keep the economy closed beyond when he wants to keep the economy closed.
00:28:50.000Well, it seems to me that he has a pretty easy counter argument, which is your governor is basically keeping you in your home.
00:28:56.000And there's not a lot of evidence that the state next door is doing poorly.
00:29:00.000So why don't you talk to your governor about it?
00:29:21.000OK, if you take a look, for example, at the timelines for other countries, what you see is that the United States declared a public health emergency on January 31st.
00:29:31.000President Trump declared a national emergency on March 13th.
00:29:34.000He announced his 15 days to slow the spread coronavirus guidance on March 16th.
00:29:38.000It wasn't until March 14th that the Spanish government declared a two-week state of emergency and instituted a lockdown.
00:29:42.000It was only on March 16th that the French President Macron announced mandatory home confinement for 15 days.
00:29:47.000And it was that same day, during his daily press briefing, that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged citizens to work from home and avoid pubs and restaurants.
00:29:55.000It wasn't until March 21st that the French National Assembly approved a legal text that would introduce a state of health emergency.
00:30:04.000Also, the Trump administration banned travel from China on January 31st.
00:31:45.000Okay, this is not Emperor Palpatine absolute power.
00:31:47.000No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
00:31:52.000We have a constitution for precisely this reason.
00:31:55.000We have states for precisely this reason.
00:31:56.000Then, bizarrely, Trump tweeted out this morning, tell the Democrat governors that Mutiny on the Bounty was one of my all-time favorite movies.
00:32:02.000A good old-fashioned mutiny every now and then is an exciting and invigorating thing to watch, especially when the mutineers need so much from the captain.
00:32:16.000And also, if we're gonna talk mutiny right now and you're talking like this, it sounds more like Captain Quig from the Kane mutiny than it sounds like mutiny on the bounty right here.
00:32:25.000By the way, mutiny on the bounty was about a captain who wanted to lock his ship down tight and sailors who did not want to be locked down for a period of time.
00:32:32.000So it is actually the opposite of the situation you're talking about.
00:32:35.000Is the assumption of this tweet that Trump is going to leverage authority?
00:32:40.000In order to force the states to reopen because I don't understand how he can do that or why he would do that, frankly.
00:33:43.000I've been using LegalZoom for years, long before they were an advertiser on the program.
00:33:46.000LegalZoom's online resources make it easy to get started.
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00:33:56.000Take a really important step for your family.
00:33:58.000This does protect your family, particularly if you're talking about like a living trust or will situation.
00:34:03.000You want to make sure the government doesn't just And again, it's because Trump is a counterpuncher, and because people have been questioning him incessantly, and so he ends up going off on the press.
00:34:16.000Go check them out right now and save yourself a bundle of money not spending hourly fees.
00:34:20.000So President Trump said that at his briefing.
00:34:23.000And again, it's because Trump is a counterpuncher and because people have been questioning him incessantly, and so he ends up going off on the press.
00:34:33.000First, let me recommend that you head on over to Daily Wire and become an Insider Plus or all access member.
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00:36:05.000So, you know that President Trump is trying to figure out exactly how to reopen.
00:36:09.000Everyone is trying to figure out exactly how to reopen and there is no great answer because there are certain businesses that are just going to be hard hit.
00:36:16.000We know that big theme parks, amusement parks like Disneyland, it's going to be a while before any of that reopens.
00:36:25.000Even in Shanghai Disney Resort in China, guests at Shanghai Resort have to wear masks at all times.
00:36:31.000Hours and capacity are limited to gain entry.
00:36:33.000Visitors have to submit to a temperature check and present the government-controlled QR code on their phone that indicates they're virus-free.
00:36:39.000Okay, that stuff ain't happening in the United States.
00:36:43.000Disneyland just won't reopen until there is a vaccine, presumably, or until the levels of death from COVID-19 reach incredible lows, hopefully over the summer, and then we hope that there is no second wave here.
00:36:55.000With all of that said, airlines are going to be hard hit.
00:37:00.000Small businesses are just going to get crushed.
00:37:02.000And one of the things that people should be talking about is how to continue to support small businesses in the absence of any sort of market.
00:37:12.000And so there's a good case to be made that small businesses should continue to be floated grants from the federal government in order to maintain There are employees on a non-profit going forward basis, and then if they want to start earning profit again, then they can stop taking those grants.
00:37:29.000Business leaders and the CDC are warning that the economic recovery is going to be slow.
00:37:33.000According to the New York Times, the evidence suggests it's not just stay-at-home orders and other government restrictions that have chilled economic activity.
00:37:38.000It's a behavioral response from workers and consumers scared of contracting the virus.
00:37:42.000One of the things that is happening here, and this is one of the reasons why I think people We need to figure out how to get out of this as soon as possible is there is a sort of mentality setting and I can feel it myself.
00:37:51.000So I assume that I'm feeling in others, which is you feel that the safer at home orders make you feel safer at home.
00:37:57.000And so you start to get into this rut, which is like, is it really truly that scary to go out to the mall right now?
00:38:02.000Like if I went out to the mall with a mask and I socially distance, would I feel truly frightened?
00:38:06.000And the answer is that when you are in the news all day long, kind of, Right, kind of.
00:38:11.000You go to the grocery store and you feel freaked out.
00:38:13.000Okay, the chances that you're going to acquire this thing at a grocery store if you're wearing a mask and socially distancing are basically nil.
00:38:18.000But everybody is freaked out all of the time, and the longer this goes on, the more freaked out people are going to be, and the longer it's going to be before people engage in precisely this sort of economic activity that supports small businesses.
00:38:28.000And so it actually is imperative, not just for, you know, plain business reasons, but for psychological reasons for people to go out and re-engage with the world, which is why, again, I'm suggesting that Quick and dirty might, in fact, be much more practical and practicable than anything that anybody else is talking about right now.
00:38:57.000They've been focused laser-like on the suggestion that President Trump blew this.
00:39:02.000They've been suggesting that since the first day.
00:39:04.000And they've been focusing incessantly on failures during late January and February.
00:39:08.000And as I've said before, when the book is written about how all of this went down, there will be failures in late January and February, particularly from the CDC and the FDA and testing authorities.
00:39:17.000There are going to be failures inside the Trump administration.
00:39:19.000Trump should have taken it seriously maybe two, three weeks earlier minimum.
00:39:23.000Okay, all of that is going to be written.
00:39:25.000But the other thing that's going to be written is that there was a series of failures for 20 years leading up to this thing.
00:39:29.000There were failures at the state and local level.
00:39:31.000Because that's what always happens in the lead-up to a government disaster.
00:39:34.000Yes, there was a memo in the lead-up to 9-11.
00:39:36.000It said Al-Qaeda determined to attack in the United States.
00:39:54.000And one of the things that really is most despicable that I think some members of the media are trying to do is divide off Dr. Anthony Fauci from Trump.
00:39:59.000Now, listen, I don't think that Trump should simply be listening to everything Fauci says and then greenlighting it.
00:40:04.000I think that he's the president of the United States.
00:40:06.000He ought to have a variety of voices in his ear.
00:40:08.000To come up with a good policy does mean balancing not just the epidemiological approach, but also the economic approach.
00:40:15.000And also the public health approach beyond epidemiology.
00:40:18.000I mean, the fact is that nobody has taken into account the mental effects on the American people of 30 million people losing their jobs and people being forced to stay in their homes.
00:40:25.000Nobody has taken into account the public health effects of people staying home for elective surgeries.
00:40:30.000What we're watching right now is hospitals actually going out of business in the middle of a coronavirus pandemic because the only thing they're being allowed to care for is coronavirus.
00:40:37.000They're not allowed to go out and do all of the surgeries that actually pay the doctors and pay the nurses and keep the hospitals open.
00:40:43.000So we're going to have to have them go back to doing those sorts of things, obviously.
00:40:47.000OK, well, President Trump is in the middle of this thing, is being questioned about Fauci because the media are trying to divide him off from Fauci.
00:43:03.000Okay, and then Fauci was asked about whether Trump acted quickly, because remember, he was on Jake Tapper, and Tapper had said, would we have saved more lives if we did something in February?
00:43:11.000And Fauci was like, well, I mean, sure, but if we had acted last August, we would have saved more lives, right?
00:43:20.000The first and only time that Dr. Birx and I went in and formally made a recommendation to the president to actually have a, quote, shutdown in the sense of, not really shutdown, but to really have strong mitigation, we discussed it.
00:43:38.000Obviously, there would be concern by some that, in fact, that might have some negative consequences.
00:43:45.000Nonetheless, the president listened to the recommendation.
00:44:08.000Here's Fauci again being tried, the media trying to manipulate it so that Fauci will say something bad about Trump so Trump will get mad and fire him.
00:44:21.000When people discuss, not necessarily in front of the president, when people discuss, they say, well, you know, this is going to have maybe a harmful effect on this or on that.
00:48:16.000What do you think press briefings are?
00:48:18.000Have you ever been to a press briefing?
00:48:19.000They are giving the administration side of the story.
00:48:22.000And is it not similarly propaganda when the members of the media sit there and ask questions they would only ask to Republicans in the same way 97 times?
00:48:30.000Here is John King going after Trump for being mean to the media.
00:49:21.000He has every right to challenge things that are factually not true.
00:49:24.000But to play a propaganda video at taxpayer expense in the White House briefing room You mean he's strung together clips that back his case and you don't like it?
00:49:52.000And ladies, find you a man who loves you like Jim Acosta loves Jim Acosta.
00:49:56.000Here's Jim Acosta saying, it's the biggest meltdown I've ever seen.
00:49:58.000And I've seen tons of meltdowns because I'm Jim Acosta.
00:50:01.000And let me tell you, every morning in the mirror, when I look in the mirror and I see Jim Acosta, let me tell you, there's a handsome man, that Jim Acosta.
00:50:06.000Here's Jim Acosta talking about Jim Acosta having viewed meltdowns as Jim Acosta while watching a press conference being Jim Acosta.
00:50:13.000That is the biggest meltdown I have ever seen from a President of the United States in my career.
00:50:18.000I don't think a reasonable person could watch what we just saw over the last hour and conclude that the President is in control.
00:50:28.000And he was ranting and raving for the better part of the last hour during that news conference.
00:50:32.000As John King was just saying, he's claiming that he has authorities that he doesn't have.
00:50:37.000The Constitution does not give the President of the United States Okay, again, the fact that you've got the media who are so angry at this.
00:51:00.000They love every single solitary second of this, every single moment, because anytime they get to talk about the battle between Trump and the media, then they are happy to You wonder why Trump's approval ratings are low and why the media approval ratings are low?
00:51:12.000Because they are mirror images of one another.
00:51:13.000The American people don't give two craps about any of this.
00:51:53.000Why have you not done random testing across the United States in terms of antibodies or in terms of just, forget about asymptomatic cases, just cases generally?
00:52:01.000Why have you not done general testing so that we have some idea of what the base rate is here?
00:52:06.000Like, these are simple, easy questions that I've been asking every day on the show, and no one in the media goes to the press briefing and asks those questions.
00:52:12.000Instead, it's all, why are you so mean to everybody, Mr. Trump?
00:53:57.000I'm the guy you call when every other person will not drive you to the airport and all the cabs are broken and then maybe I'll drive you to the airport and maybe not.
00:54:05.000Maybe I'll do it after the plane's left.
00:54:12.000So I love the fact that Barack Obama's endorsement is actually less impactful than Bernie Sanders' endorsement at this point because he waited so long.
00:54:18.000Like, imagine if Barack Obama had endorsed Joe Biden before South Carolina.
00:55:03.000So yesterday morning, There's a piece by Askiat Herndon over at the New York Times called, In an interview, Ms.
00:55:13.000Ocasio-Cortez said she intended to support the presumptive Democratic nominee, but the process of coming together should be uncomfortable for everyone involved.
00:55:20.000And so she wanted to make demands, demands of Joe Biden so that the entire progressive wing would get behind the Joe Biden campaign.
00:55:28.000She said that the Biden campaign had not reached out to her.
00:55:30.000She said, there's this talk about unity as this kind of vague kumbaya kind of term.
00:55:34.000Unity and unifying isn't a feeling, it's a process.
00:55:36.000And what I hope does not happen is that everyone just tries to shoo it along and brush real policies.
00:55:40.000That means the difference of life and death or affording your insulin and not affording your insulin.
00:55:44.000Just brush them under the rug as an aesthetic difference of style.
00:55:47.000There's also this idea that if we all just support the nominee, voters will come along as well.
00:55:52.000I don't think this conversation about changes that need to be made is one about throwing the progressive wing of the party a couple of bones.
00:56:21.000Like every voting bloc is in a monolith.
00:56:22.000But I know from a Latino perspective, I think we need a real plan to be better than what happened during his service with the Obama administration.
00:56:27.000I love she says that progressives aren't a monolith, but there is a monolithic Latino perspective.
00:56:40.000She says, if we're not talking about paths to citizenship for undocumented people, if we're just talking about policy changes of 5 or 10 percent, it's not about moving to the left.
00:56:47.000It's about who is able to find hope in your administration.
00:56:50.000So she has this long interview with the New York Times talking about all the things that she wants from Joe Biden in order for her to endorse.
00:56:57.000And five seconds later, Bernie Sanders gets on a live stream with Joe Biden and endorses.
00:57:01.000Now, the great shock here is that both of them were able to work the live stream.
00:58:18.000He's a Joe Biden bot, but like a crappy bot version 0.7.
00:58:22.000Not the one that was supposed to be released.
00:58:24.000He's AOL 1.0 with the dial-up connection.
00:58:27.000So here is Bernie endorsing Biden with sufficiently more enthusiasm than Joe Biden, who is not actually an alive person.
00:58:34.000We've got to make Trump a one-term president, and we need you in the White House.
00:58:39.000So I will do all that I can to see that that happens, Joe.
00:58:44.000And I know that there is an enormous responsibility on your shoulders right now.
00:58:51.000And it's imperative that all of us work together to do what has to be done, not only in this moment, but beyond this moment, in the future of this country.
00:59:03.000Okay, and then Biden did a bunch of stupid things.
00:59:05.000So Biden thinks that the way that he is going to unify the party is by making all sorts of concessions to Bernie and by starting to mimic Bernie's policies.
00:59:12.000And this is pretty much the dumbest thing you can do.
00:59:14.000The reason that this is the dumbest thing you can do is because Biden's entire campaign, the reason he shellacked Bernie, and he shellacked Bernie way worse than Hillary shellacked Bernie in 2016, right?
01:00:53.000You are going to give... And so Biden's like, oh, okay, fine.
01:00:57.000So then he starts saying crazy crap, which again is not going to benefit him in the election.
01:01:00.000So here's Joe Biden saying crazy crap, right?
01:01:02.000He says, you know what I think we should do?
01:01:04.000We should use wartime authority to force banks to give small loans to businesses.
01:01:09.000Wartime authority to force banks to give loans they would not otherwise give.
01:01:13.000So we're not just going to use the government to give out bad loans like we did during the subprime crisis or like we did during CARP or something.
01:01:18.000We are actually going to force small banks to give loans they don't want to give using wartime authority, which is just full-on economic fascism.
01:01:27.000When you seize control of the banks and force them to give loans, that is basically the definition of economic fascism.
01:01:32.000Here is Joe Biden suggesting it openly because he doesn't know what he's talking about.
01:01:36.000He's lost all connection with reality.
01:01:38.000We should insist that the Trump White House and the Treasury Department move more aggressively to get those grants and loans to small businesses now, when they really need it.
01:01:48.000And if the banks won't do it, to go back to your point, they won't process the loans for small business regardless of their size, then the federal government should use their wartime authority to compel them to do so.
01:02:01.000Because otherwise, in six months, we're going to look back and see that this crisis has only made inequity worse in America.
01:02:09.000So we're going to use the government for redistribution of wealth in the middle of a global pandemic.
01:02:19.000One of the reasons you are not seeing like outright state refusal to listen to the federal government is the fact that Donald Trump is president.
01:02:26.000If these people, the people who are insisting on full-scale federal control of every aspect of your life, were using this crisis as an excuse to take control of businesses and banks across the country, there would be, rightly, talk of disobeying the federal government.
01:02:40.000Like, one of the things that is keeping things on lockdown right now is the fact that Trump obviously does not want to fundamentally shift the nature of the relationship between citizen and government.
01:02:49.000Because this is Joe Biden being Bernie.
01:02:52.000And this just shows that for the Democratic Party, their heart is still with Bernie, even though they're not willing to show it on the outside.
01:02:57.000So here is Joe Biden being Bernie on progressive policies while Bernie sits there bored and staring at his fingernails.
01:03:03.000Look, the United States has no choice but to seize this opportunity and create millions, millions of great paying jobs that your energy plan has suggested and mine as well.
01:03:13.000An energy infrastructure of tomorrow, not going back to anything that was before, tomorrow.
01:03:19.000And we take a backseat to no one when it comes to fighting climate change or when it comes to creating good paying jobs, middle class jobs, union jobs.
01:03:37.000Is to say crazy, radical things that Trump can actually pick on in the run-up to the election.
01:03:40.000The other way to lose the election is to be a complete buffoon, and that Biden has done in spades.
01:03:45.000He made three separate gaffes in this thing last night.
01:03:47.000First, he named the economy twice in his working groups, which is like the full-on Rick Perry, but he doesn't get treated like Rick Perry because he's Joe Biden.
01:03:53.000We just pretend he's old, senile Uncle Joe.
01:04:18.000Also, gaffe number two, then he's trying to get his aides' attention.
01:04:20.000Remember that time that Marco Rubio swigged from a water bottle and it was a huge deal?
01:04:23.000Here is Joe Biden trying desperately to get his aides' attention in the middle of a live stream.
01:04:28.000With so many folks unemployed and underemployed, we've got to make sure that the government comes up with a continued set of policies that protect those workers.
01:04:42.000And the pain all over the country is now horrific.
01:04:46.000You have seen, as I have, these lines of cars And I mean, what is Joe Biden doing here?
01:05:00.000Biden says he's going to put millions of citizens on the pathway to citizenship, which would be weird because citizens don't need a pathway to citizenship, as the word citizenship would actually suggest.
01:05:09.000I really think we should be thinking about having a new office, a new cabinet office on pandemics in the United States, but that's another issue.
01:05:17.000But we're going to finally achieve comprehensive immigration reform as well, put millions of citizens on a pathway to citizenship, including so many who are on the front lines right now.
01:05:27.000The number of undocumented who are out there now risking their lives.
01:05:49.000But Trump is going to have to actually demonstrate some leadership.
01:05:52.000He's going to have to forego the cheap and easy hit against the media and actually demonstrate some desire to unify the country.
01:05:57.000Because basically this election right now is going to be a referendum on what Trump does with the worst crisis in modern American history, really since the Civil War.
01:06:04.000Okay, we'll be back here later today with two additional hours of content.
01:06:52.000Hey everybody, it's Andrew Klavan, host of The Andrew Klavan Show.
01:06:55.000You know, some people are depressed because the American Republic is collapsing, the end of days is approaching, and the moon has turned to blood.
01:07:01.000But on The Andrew Klavan Show, that's where the fun just gets started.