Trump was left out of the second Republican primary debate, and it created a bit of a crab pot. Now, the question is, who's going to emerge from that "crab pot" to actually challenge Donald Trump? And is it possible that the field will consolidate around a single candidate? And if it doesn't, what will happen to the rest of the field? And what will it mean for the future of the race? And how will the field consolidate around someone who can challenge Trump? All that and much more on today's After Hours with Jake Tapper. Jake talks about the latest in the latest CNN/ORC poll, and why it's important to remember that the primary race is still early, and that there's a long way to go in the race. Also, Elon Musk is in a hot water with the Anti-Defamation League and the ADL, and we talk about that, too. Tweet Me! if you have any thoughts or suggestions on how to improve the quality of the podcast or other media outlets covering the candidates in the upcoming primary debates. Timestamps: 1:00:00 - Who's on top? 2:30 - Is the primary field consolidating? 3:15 - Is there anyone else on the bubble? 4:10 - Is Chris Christie on the rise? 5:20 - Is it time to run for president? 6:00 7:30 Is the field fractured? 8:10: Is there any hope for a third candidate? 11:15 13: Who's really running for the nomination? 15:00 | Is there a serious contender? 16:40 - Is Nikki Haley vs. DeSantisantis or Tim Scott? 17:10 18:30 | Is Tim Scott in the ring? 19:40 21:15 | Is this race really a race? 22:10 | Who's the real chance? 26:40 | Is it too early? 27:00 -- Is this a race to run against Trump? 25:30 -- Is there really a chance to win in 2020? 31: Is it possible to win? 32:20 33:40 -- Is someone going to win the primary? 35:20 | Is a real chance of winning in Iowa or not? 36:20 -- How long will he really have a shot at it?
00:00:00.000So, preliminary note, today, noon eastern time, I will be speaking with Elon Musk over on X. There's an X space where we're going to be talking about Elon Musk and his fight with the Anti-Defamation League and standards of free speech on X, as well as advertising pressure on X. So if you want to check that out, make sure to head on over.
00:00:17.000Okay, so last night was the second big Republican debate.
00:00:23.000And by big, I mean Donald Trump wasn't part of it.
00:00:25.000And of course, there's no way to talk about the debate without talking about the fact that the frontrunner by 30 points in the national average right now was not part of the debate.
00:00:33.000And when the front runner isn't there, it turns into a bit of a crab pot, meaning everybody's just pulling each other down.
00:00:40.000There's no way to avoid that sort of optic.
00:00:43.000The question is, is anyone going to emerge from that crab pot to actually challenge Donald Trump?
00:00:54.000At this point in the 2008 race, which is sort of the last open primary race that we had before Trump stepped onto the scene, in 2008, at this point, There is a run and gun battle between Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee for the Republican nomination.
00:01:08.000In fact, even in the 2016 Republican primary polls, Donald Trump was leading at this point, but he wasn't, like, way out ahead.
00:01:16.000He was still pretty competitive at this point.
00:01:18.000In other words, some things can still happen.
00:01:21.000Is that the most likely thing to happen?
00:01:23.000It's not the most likely thing to happen.
00:01:25.000However, it is pretty obvious that Donald Trump has some vulnerabilities in places like Iowa.
00:01:31.000So, for example, despite the fact that Donald Trump is leading significantly in Iowa and also in New Hampshire, When asked which candidates are being considered by voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, a huge number of Iowa voters and New Hampshire voters are saying that they are considering candidates other than Donald Trump.
00:01:49.000So they're not locked into Trump by any stretch of the imagination.
00:01:52.000In other words, if something terrible were to happen in Trump's candidacy, there are a lot of people who would presumably shift over.
00:01:58.000Right now, for example, if you look at that CBS News poll from YouGov, what it shows is that in Iowa, about 20% of the voter bloc says they will vote only Trump.
00:02:07.000In New Hampshire, that number is about 23%.
00:02:09.000Which means 80% in Iowa and 77% in New Hampshire are saying that they will consider candidates other than Trump.
00:02:19.00031% of voters in Iowa say they will not consider Trump at all.
00:02:22.00034% of voters in New Hampshire say they will not consider Trump at all.
00:02:25.000And meanwhile, the vast bulk of the voters in the middle, the plurality of voters in the middle, in both Iowa and New Hampshire, say they will consider Trump and other candidates.
00:02:31.000What's happening right now is that all the people who are considering Trump and other candidates are splitting about half and half for Trump.
00:02:38.000So Trump's got that locked in base of 20, 23% in these early states.
00:02:42.000And then the other 40 to 50% of voters who say that they're considering Trump plus everybody else are splitting about half for Trump and half for everybody else.
00:02:49.000And so the field is looking very fragmented.
00:02:51.000And the same thing is happening with the people who are not considering Trump at all.
00:02:54.000They're fragmenting among a bunch of other candidates.
00:02:57.000So is it possible that somebody could theoretically consolidate The rest of these voters.
00:03:02.000It is possible, but the field would have to winnow dramatically, and that person would have to take votes directly away from Trump.
00:03:07.000It wouldn't just be a matter of picking up everybody who's anti-Trump.
00:03:09.000That's only about 33% of the Republican base at this point.
00:03:13.000They would somehow have to take the other 45% of the base, and they would have to win that percentage of the base, or at least split it in significant fashion.
00:03:22.000So that's the state of the race as we move into this debate.
00:03:27.000It's pretty obvious that it's going to consolidate.
00:03:29.000Right now there are three candidates who are probably on the bubble.
00:03:31.000That would be Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum.
00:03:33.000Vivek is self-funded and not really running for president anyway, and therefore he can stay in for pretty much as long as he wants.
00:03:39.000With that said, the field is likely to winnow, and so by the time we have another debate, we are probably going to be looking at Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis.
00:03:48.000Pence probably will be out by that point, I would imagine.
00:03:50.000So you're looking at probably Haley versus DeSantis is how this race is starting to shake down.
00:03:54.000Now, Are these people definitely going to drop out?
00:03:56.000Well, if you're Chris Christie, you're just waiting until New Hampshire.
00:03:58.000You're hoping that the anti-Trump base consolidates in New Hampshire, sufficient to actually show some momentum over there.
00:04:04.000But, if you're looking at the state of the race right now inside the Republican Party, Haley and DeSantis are the two most viable candidates.
00:04:10.000And when I say the two most viable, they're not on even footing.
00:04:12.000DeSantis is well ahead of Haley in Iowa, and they're running about even in New Hampshire.
00:04:18.000So if DeSantis starts to pick up some momentum, which has been the story of this campaign, is that DeSantis has been a solid number two and he has never caught fire.
00:04:24.000That's been the story of the campaign so far.
00:04:26.000Again, I am somebody who is very supportive of Governor DeSantis.
00:04:30.000I think he'd make a phenomenal president.
00:04:32.000I've been supportive of Governor DeSantis and his candidacy pretty much this entire time in terms of who do I think would make the best president among the candidates who are on the stage.
00:04:42.000Well, with that said, everybody's still waiting for his campaign to actually initiate.
00:04:48.000There's been sort of a stagnation to the race.
00:04:51.000It's been a very stable race basically since July, since June-July, when DeSantis first jumped into the race.
00:04:58.000So did the debate change anything last night?
00:05:09.000He realized that if he did show up, he'd get attacked by all the other candidates on a wide variety of issues.
00:05:13.000He was attacked by them anyway for not showing up.
00:05:16.000Instead he decided that he was going to jet over to Michigan and he was going to do an event with like a few auto workers and claim solidarity with the members of the union over there even though the union has shunned him and they are just licking the boots of Joe Biden who is simultaneously licking their boots as well.
00:05:31.000With that said, him avoiding the debate naturally means that everybody in the room is fighting each other and not Donald Trump which is a win for Donald Trump.
00:05:40.000Last night, there was a lot of people talking over each other, people trying to get aggressive, people attempting to fight each other, and it turned into a mess.
00:06:33.000Remember, you vote with how you spend your cash, so stop supporting woke wireless companies that don't support you.
00:06:38.000When you go to puretalk.com slash Shapiro, you will save an additional 50% off your very first month of coverage because they actually value you.
00:07:03.000It's sort of like the MSNBC of the Latino community.
00:07:07.000Hispanics and Latinos who are voting Republican or considering voting Republican in the primaries, they're not watching Univision.
00:07:12.000And every question that came out of Univision was biased to the left.
00:07:16.000It's Stuart Varney from Fox Business and you have my friend Dana Perino from Fox News.
00:07:20.000And through no fault of their own, I mean, I can't blame the moderators, it's easy to blame the moderators, but it was just, it was just a pileup.
00:07:27.000It was just a 20-car pileup on the I-95.
00:07:32.000It was a complete car crash, pretty much from the beginning.
00:07:34.000There's a lot of awkwardness, a lot of weird moments, some entertaining moments.
00:07:39.000But, you know, for those who suggested that the debate overall is not a commentary on one individual candidate, that the debate overall was relatively unwatchable, that's true.
00:08:13.000I don't understand why Fox News doesn't just set those rules right at the outset so you at least have some sort of order.
00:08:17.000The problem is that right now you have seven people on that stage all aggressively attempting to eat the microphone and get into that camera with the red light on.
00:08:29.000So there's a ton of people talking over each other.
00:08:32.000There's a ton of sort of non-understandable nonsense where it just sounded like gray noise over your ear.
00:08:39.000So just on an optics level, it was not a good debate.
00:08:43.000Now, as for the particular candidates, Nikki Haley came in with some semblance of momentum.
00:08:47.000When I say some semblance, I mean, again, if you look at the polling data, she's doing better in New Hampshire than she was.
00:08:52.000She's doing better in Iowa than she was.
00:08:53.000She's still third right now to DeSantis by a pretty significant margin in Iowa.
00:08:59.000And she's now in the scrum in New Hampshire, meaning if she's second or if she's third or if she's fourth, it's kind of all the same because the reality is that it's Trump at 50.
00:09:07.000And then it's like DeSantis and Christie and Haley all between like 9 and 13 percent. So she's got some, so there's no
00:09:15.000question that Nikki has gotten some momentum off of the last debate. And she came in very
00:09:19.000aggressive, she came in very hot. Meanwhile, DeSantis was planning presumably to stick to his playbook.
00:09:25.000His playbook is, every time you come to me, I'm going to give you my
00:09:29.000accomplishments in Florida, That's totally fine.
00:09:32.000He rebutted some attacks, some really, I think, scurrilous attacks by moderators talking about, for example, the Florida education plan to ban critical race theory.
00:09:41.000But it wasn't going to be a moment where he sort of elevated.
00:09:44.000As always, these debates are not friendly territory for DeSantis because he is at least on the stage of the frontrunner, right?
00:09:52.000Everybody is second to Trump, but he is on the stage of the frontrunner, which means he has to fend off all those attacks.
00:09:57.000The vague apparently had a personality transplant.
00:09:59.000So he went from the first debate where he was just Aggressively smarmy, like over-the-top smarmy, and just grinning ear-to-ear the whole time, and insulting everybody on the stage, to much more humble of a vacay.
00:10:13.000He must have gotten the exit polls from the last debate, and seen that it actually blunted a lot of his momentum, and he decided to change it up.
00:10:19.000Tim Scott, by contrast, decided that he had to get more aggressive, because he's also seeing those polls, and what they're saying is, everybody thinks Tim Scott is a nice guy, and nobody knows why he's on the stage.
00:10:27.000Chris Christie was just Chris Christie.
00:10:29.000The one thing you have to say for Chris Christie, that dude is always Chris Christie.
00:10:33.000He's always Chris Christie, except when he's getting Donald Trump a Coke.
00:10:36.000But aside from that, he's always Chris Christie.
00:10:39.000And then Doug Burgum, no one knows why.
00:10:41.000And Mike Pence, again, I like the Vice President.
00:10:46.000He brought a heavy dose of awkward last night.
00:10:48.000So just in terms, there's a lot of cringe to this debate.
00:10:52.000Watching this debate felt like watching the earliest episodes of The Office, before they sort of hit their stride, where it was all super cringe humor.
00:11:00.000You're not sure if you're even allowed to laugh or not.
00:11:02.000Okay, so the debate began with several of the candidates knocking Donald Trump for not showing up to the debate, which is perfectly appropriate.
00:11:09.000Donald Trump is a Republican candidate for the presidency.
00:11:12.000He should show up for the debate on every moral level.
00:11:14.000Also, on every strategic level, he definitely should not show up for the debate.
00:11:16.000I'm just going to point out that strategically speaking, when you are winning by 40 points and you don't show up for the first debate and nothing happens to your numbers, there is literally no reason for you to show up to the second debate.
00:11:25.000Okay, but of course all the other candidates are going to attack Trump over this.
00:11:30.000So Chris Christie led the pack in attacking Trump for not showing up to the debate with the running gun battle for heaviest dose of cringe last night.
00:11:38.000I mean, this is like fatal dose of cringe here from Chris Christie.
00:11:44.000And I want to look at that camera right now and tell you, Donald, I know you're watching.
00:12:41.000The reason you're not watching is because you're, is because you're, I thought maybe he was going to go to like needles and back to the future too.
00:12:47.000It's because you chicken, you chicken McFly.
00:12:50.000Oh, solid stuff there from, from Chris Christie.
00:13:02.000When I'm on the road, I gotta tell you, I'm even less inclined to have fruits and vegetables, because the food in Israel is fantastic, but I'll tell you what is still bad, fruits and vegetables.
00:13:10.000But, you need the fruits and veggies, because they're the thing that keeps you alive and healthy.
00:13:13.000This is why I rely on Balance of Nature.
00:13:15.000Balance of Nature fruits and veggies are a great way to make sure that you're getting essential nutritional ingredients every single day.
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00:13:32.000The only thing in there are capsules, pure fruits and veggies.
00:13:35.000Balance of Nature sent a bunch of their product down to the studio for my team to try, and we all love them.
00:13:40.000Producer Zach brought his Balance of Nature fruits and veggie capsules here to Israel.
00:14:32.000He owes it to you to defend his record where they added $7.8 trillion to the debt.
00:14:39.000That set the stage for the inflation that we have now.
00:14:42.000I can tell you this, as governor of Florida, we cut taxes.
00:14:45.000We ran surpluses, we've paid down over 25% of our state debt, and I vetoed wasteful spending when it came to my desk.
00:14:52.000And as your president, when they send me a bloating spending bill that's going to cause your prices to go up, I'm going to take out this veto pen and I'm going to send it right back to them.
00:15:01.000Okay, that's a good pitch from Ron DeSantis.
00:15:03.000Now again, does that damage Trump in any serious way?
00:15:07.000And unfortunately, a huge percentage of Trump supporters don't actually hold him responsible for many of the things he actually did while he was in office.
00:15:12.000But if you're going to launch an attack on Trump, that is the proper attack on Trump.
00:16:06.000He says, recession is when your neighbor loses his job, and depression is when you lose your job, and recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his job, right?
00:16:11.000So he's basically kind of twisting that line.
00:16:17.000So that went over like a lead balloon.
00:16:19.000Meanwhile, Nikki Haley, she was very aggressive last night.
00:16:23.000She obviously was amped up, and you could tell from her manner.
00:16:26.000She didn't do poorly last night, but it was just a very aggressive performance from Nikki Haley, which was kind of a difference from her last debate performance, which I thought was actually very good.
00:16:34.000Here is Nikki on immigration, for example, and what she's saying is totally right.
00:16:38.000It's just that, again, when you're watching these things, the cadence sort of matters.
00:16:43.000Well, what happens is when Joe Biden waved the green flag, it told everybody to come.
00:16:48.000And now we've seen six million people cross the border.
00:16:51.000We've had more fentanyl that have killed Americans in the Iraq, Vietnam, or Afghanistan wars combined.
00:16:57.000We need to make sure that we are a country of laws.
00:16:59.000The second we stop being a country of laws, we give up everything this country was founded on.
00:17:30.000And again, I agree with a lot of what Vivek says, depending on the day.
00:17:34.000And Vivek, yesterday, was talking about the southern border.
00:17:38.000And here's what Vivek had to say about the southern border.
00:17:41.000Militarize the southern border, stop funding sanctuary cities, and end foreign aid to Mexico and Central America to end the incentives to come across.
00:17:53.000I favor ending birthright citizenship for the kids of illegal immigrants in this country.
00:17:59.000Now the left will howl about the Constitution and the 14th Amendment.
00:18:03.000The difference between me and them is I've actually read the 14th Amendment.
00:18:06.000What it says is that all persons born or naturalized in the United States And, subject to the laws and jurisdiction thereof, are citizens.
00:18:17.000So nobody believes that the kid of a Mexican diplomat in this country enjoys birthright citizenship.
00:18:22.000Not a judge or legal scholar in this country will disagree with me on that.
00:18:26.000Well, if the kid of a Mexican diplomat doesn't enjoy birthright citizenship, then neither does the kid of an illegal migrant who broke the law to come here.
00:18:34.000Okay, so what Vivek is saying there, by the way, actually is a good legal argument.
00:18:38.000This has been a very, very Long and an interesting ongoing legal argument among conservative legal scholars is whether birthright citizenship actually was ever meant to extend to kids of people who are subject to another jurisdiction.
00:18:50.000So if you are a Mexican citizen, but not an American citizen, you come here and then you just drop a kid.
00:18:56.000Is that kid therefore an American citizen?
00:18:57.000There's a case from the Supreme Court in the late 19th century that sort of suggests that yes, birthright citizenship is the way that this is done.
00:19:05.000It would probably take a constitutional amendment to overturn that.
00:19:08.000There's an argument about whether you can do it with an act of Congress or not.
00:19:42.000It was really here that things started to go wild.
00:19:45.000I can't imagine how you could say that, knowing that you were just in business with the Chinese Communist Party, and the same people that funded Hunter Biden, millions of dollars, was a partner of yours as well.
00:22:14.000And one of the hangovers from the last debate is that Vivek pissed everybody off and everybody decided they were going to take their revenge.
00:24:06.000And part of how we win elections is reaching the next generation of young Americans where they are.
00:24:12.000So when I get into office, I've been very clear.
00:24:14.000Kids under the age of 16 should not be using addictive social media.
00:24:20.000We're only going to ever get to declaring independence from China, which I favor, if we actually win.
00:24:26.000Okay, so he avoids the question on whether to ban TikTok or not.
00:24:28.000And this leads to Nikki Haley getting very aggressive.
00:24:30.000And some people thought this was a good moment for Nikki Haley.
00:24:32.000I actually don't think this is a good moment for Nikki Haley, because again, Nikki Haley's entire approach here has been very genteel.
00:24:40.000She's been aggressive enough to attack people, but I don't think this moment went over for her particularly well.
00:24:45.000This is infuriating, because TikTok is one of the most dangerous social media apps that we could have.
00:24:52.000And what you've got, I honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say.
00:24:56.000Because I can't believe that here you've got a TikTok situation.
00:25:01.000What they're doing is, these 150 million people are on TikTok.
00:25:05.000That means they can get your contacts, they can get your financial information, they can get your emails, they can get your text messages, they can get all of these things.
00:25:37.000And then Vivek had the Samaritans say we shouldn't be attacking each other up on the stage when literally last debate, that's what he was doing.
00:25:44.000So again, the person who was rising up from the scrum in all of this was his strategy, which is I'm going to stand over to the side here, right?
00:25:49.000You guys want to do your car crash thing?
00:25:53.000One of the best moments that DeSantis had last night was his moment on abortion.
00:25:56.000So he was asked specifically about abortion policy because Donald Trump has been incredibly aggressive in calling out DeSantis' six-week abortion ban in the state of Florida.
00:26:06.000In fact, going so far as to suggest that it's immoral to pass heartbeat bills in the states, which, again, I don't see how any pro-life person can say that.
00:26:13.000You can say they think it's tactically wrong to suggest a heartbeat bill at the federal level because it's not going to pass and it's just going to tick off independent voters.
00:26:21.000I understand the tactics, but to suggest as a pro-lifer that it's bad to pass such a bill is, of course, ridiculous.
00:26:48.000We won the greatest Republican victory in a governor's race in the history of the state, over 1.5 million votes.
00:26:54.000We were winning places like Miami-Dade County, Palm Beach, that nobody thought was possible because we were leading with purpose and conviction.
00:27:01.000I reject this idea that pro-lifers are to blame for midterm defeats.
00:27:06.000I think there's other reasons for that.
00:27:08.000The former president, he's missing in action tonight.
00:28:05.000All it says is that slaves could use skills they learned during slavery opportunistically in order to advance their lives after slavery.
00:28:12.000That does not mean slavery was a good thing.
00:28:15.000It's the same thing as suggesting that if you went to jail and then you somehow got a degree while you were in jail, you used that after you went to jail.
00:28:22.000It doesn't mean jail was great for you.
00:28:23.000It doesn't mean jail is like an amazing place.
00:28:25.000In any case, here is DeSantis rebutting this ridiculous question.
00:28:31.000Slaves develop skills which in some instances could be applied for their personal benefit.
00:28:36.000You have said slaves develop skills in spite of slavery, not because of it.
00:29:23.000We're standing with parents, and our kids are benefiting.
00:29:25.000Okay, then, Tim Scott, again, this is where these debates sort of tend to go off the rails, and it does show who has limits and who does not.
00:29:33.000I do not like badly calibrated attacks or attacks that are dishonest.
00:29:36.000Tim Scott going after DeSantis on the slavery thing is really scurrilous.
00:29:41.000It's really scurrilous and it's beneath Tim Scott for sure.
00:29:44.000Here is Scott going after Ron DeSantis on the standard, which again, was not written by Ron DeSantis.
00:29:50.000It was written by a group of black scholars in Florida.
00:29:54.000There is not a redeeming quality in slavery.
00:29:58.000He and Kamala should have just taken the one sentence out.
00:30:12.000Okay, we'll get to more of the debate in just one second.
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00:31:17.000Okay, the debate concluded with pretty much everybody trying to explain who they wanted to leave the race, what they thought the race was about.
00:31:27.000In the end, there are really only two candidates on the stage who are running to be the President of the United States.
00:31:38.000So, the last question, Dana Perino is getting a lot of crap for this because she said, if this were Survivor, who would be voted off the island?
00:32:58.000DeSantis is definitely running because he thinks he could win the nomination.
00:33:00.000I mean, back in December, he was directly competitive with Donald Trump.
00:33:04.000Vivek, is running to be a senator from Ohio with Trump's endorsement, or he is running to get a podcast, or he's running to do whatever it is he's doing.
00:33:15.000He was asked, why are you running when you're basically just a Trump mini-me?
00:33:18.000And his answer was, well, I am a Trump mini-me.
00:34:21.000And Mike Pence, who clearly is there to sort of shore up his legacy because he was Donald Trump's vice president and he has to justify himself individually.
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00:35:16.000Making a murderer's narrative of Stephen Avery being falsely convicted for murdering Teresa Haubach.
00:35:21.000There are people all over the country commenting about how they've changed their mind after watching Convicting a Murderer.
00:35:25.000Well, this is what happens when you actually make a documentary that looks at the entire panoply of the facts.
00:35:30.000This week's episode is all about how Making a Murderer left so many viewers convinced that Manitowoc police orchestrated a plot to frame Stephen Avery.
00:35:36.000Candace is going to show you what actually happened in this week's episode.
00:36:12.000And that is exactly what the filmmakers led you to believe.
00:36:15.000Why are you editing my courtroom testimony?
00:36:18.000You should be still faithful to the facts.
00:36:21.000I started to realize more and more that this was an entertainment piece.
00:36:24.000This wasn't a piece of journalism like I thought it was going to be.
00:36:27.000This was a piece of journalism like I thought it was going to be.
00:36:38.000If you're not a member, head on over to dailywire.com slash subscribe to sign up for access to this groundbreaking series and the rest of Daily Wire's content.
00:36:46.000Okay, meanwhile, Donald Trump avoided the entire debate, right?
00:36:48.000So, everybody in the debate is tearing each other apart.
00:36:51.000They're all, you know, going at one another.
00:37:34.000Again, he's He does have an innate instinct for getting attention and for misdirecting the cameras to a place he wants them to be, which is why it is so all-fired frustrating that for the last eight years Donald Trump has not used that magical power in order to direct attention where it should be.
00:37:48.000In any case, he goes to Michigan and he jumps in on his trade agenda, suggesting that globalization, or what he calls globalism, not quite the same thing, that globalism is responsible for what's going on.
00:38:01.000So give me four more years and I will give you The end to this horrible globalism that's killing our country.
00:38:11.000I'll give you the return of the United States of America as the greatest and strongest industrial nation in the history of the world.
00:38:21.000Together, we will dismantle the corrupt power structure that has feasted on the suffering of the American autoworker and the workers of any kind, not just autoworkers, workers of any kind.
00:38:34.000We will cast from power the financial forces that have turned American cities into ghost towns to build skyscrapers in Beijing, China.
00:38:45.000We will wield every lever of government to defend you and to hold accountable those who have profited from the betrayal and suffering of the American factory workers.
00:39:36.000On day one, I will terminate Joe Biden's electric vehicle mandate, and I will cancel every job-killing regulation that is crushing American autoworkers.
00:39:48.000I will unleash a thing called American energy, stop the ban on the internal combustion engine, and we will drill, baby, drill, and we will make zero environmental difference.
00:40:05.000So again, all of that is good and smart for Trump to go to Michigan and gets attention away from the debate.
00:40:11.000Now, the biggest issue that Trump is about to face is actually this fraud case.
00:40:14.000So believe it or not, all of the criminal violations that he may or may not have committed, I think three of the four criminal cases are BS.
00:40:21.000I think the one on classified documents is very difficult for him to defeat just in the actual court of law because he says on tape that he does the crime.
00:40:29.000But Those are not really the biggest threats to him.
00:40:31.000The biggest threat to him and the thing I'm sure that he's worried the most about is this fraud case in New York.
00:40:38.000So the law in the state of New York, I looked it up yesterday.
00:40:42.000The law in the state of New York suggests that the government is capable of what they call disgorgement of profits of a business, even if no crime has actually been committed against anyone.
00:40:53.000So they're not charging you with a crime.
00:41:34.000That's a crazy regimen of law that if they detect They think, civilly, that you committed a series of frauds.
00:41:40.000In other words, you just completely kept inflating the value of your assets in order to get deals at lower interest rates.
00:41:46.000The bank knew you were inflating, they gave you the loan anyway.
00:41:48.000The state can then come in, post-facto, after everyone has benefited and done great, and the state has gotten more taxes because everybody did great, and they can disgorge the profits from you by identifying a pattern or practice of fraudulent conduct.
00:42:08.000So here is what is happening in that case.
00:42:10.000According to the New York Times, a New York judge ruled on Tuesday that Trump persistently committed fraud by inflating the value of his assets and stripped the former president of control over some of his signature New York properties.
00:42:21.000If all those properties go into receivership, that is a heavy duty burden on his assets.
00:42:25.000So if he is using those assets to, say, take loans out against the assets in order to raise legal funds, That is not available to him.
00:42:33.000It's a serious issue for him, electorally speaking.
00:42:36.000So according to the New York Times, James has argued that Trump inflated the value of his properties by as much as $2.2 billion and is seeking a penalty of about $250 million in a trial scheduled to begin as early as Monday.
00:42:43.000adding no trial was needed to determine that he had fraudulently secured favorable terms
00:43:17.000While the trial will determine the size of the penalty, Engron's ruling granted one of the biggest punishments that James sought, the cancellation of business certificates that allow some of Trump's New York properties to operate, a move that could have major repercussions for the Trump family business.
00:43:28.000The decision could terminate his control over a flagship commercial property at 40 Wall Street in Lower Manhattan, a family estate in Westchester County, the Trump Tower in Mintown, Manhattan, his golf club in Westchester, It wouldn't dissolve the company, but the decision could have a sweeping impact on the company's New York operations.
00:43:43.000It would shut down an entity that employs hundreds of people working for him in New York, effectively destroying the company.
00:43:50.000So this is like a serious full frontal assault on Donald Trump's financial wherewithal, his asset base in the state of New York, which is where the majority of his assets are located.
00:43:59.000And not only that, it encumbers the assets for his kids.
00:44:02.000So even if Trump were to step off the political stage tomorrow, even if God forbid something were to happen to him tomorrow, it would then encumber the assets for his children.
00:44:10.000So this is a real threat to Donald Trump, because again, if he doesn't have money to run his campaign, Where's that money going to come from?
00:44:17.000Presumably it's going to keep coming from donors.
00:44:19.000You're going to give money to his campaign.
00:44:20.000He's going to use it to pay off all of his legal bills.
00:44:22.000None of that money is going to get spent on electioneering.
00:44:25.000So you want to talk about election interference, this case actually might be the largest act of election interference in the entire election cycle.
00:44:32.000And that's something people should take into account.
00:44:33.000Again, if what you care about is victory over Joe Biden, Massive burdens on the Republican frontrunner make it very difficult for him to win.
00:44:41.000Yes, there have been some positive polls for Donald Trump in the recent past.
00:44:44.000We're also a year and a half out from the election.
00:44:46.000Four criminal cases have yet to take place.
00:44:48.000And if his assets go into receivership, he's got a serious problem on his hands.
00:46:03.000That's... So where the hell are... I don't know where the polls are.
00:46:06.000What I do know is that Trump has very major systemic hurdles that he's going to have to overcome.
00:46:11.000That this is not an easy election for him by any stretch of the imagination.
00:46:16.000And every single legal ruling that comes down against him, justified or unjustified, it doesn't matter whether the decision is right or whether the decision is wrong.
00:46:23.000The only thing that matters is whether it stops from beating Joe Biden.
00:46:26.000Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom, who is like desperately hanging around in the hopes that Joe Biden dies.
00:46:31.000I mean, that's all I can imagine he's doing here.
00:48:11.000Very strange behavior from Gavin Newsom.
00:48:13.000Then Gavin Newsom drops an even stranger thing.
00:48:15.000So we know that Gavin Newsom is slated to have, at the end of, I believe, next month, he's going to have a debate with Ron DeSantis.
00:48:20.000And it should be really interesting because, again, these are two very different visions of governing the country.
00:48:24.000DeSantis wants the debate because he wants to be able to take it to Gavin Newsom and demonstrate, since Biden won't debate him, that the stand-in for Biden is very bad at governing.
00:48:34.000Newsom wants it because anything that gets Gavin Newsom on TV is something that Gavin Newsom wants.
00:48:39.000So, Gavin Newsom then, bizarrely, went on a show on X and explained that because Ron DeSantis is debating him, this disqualifies him as president, which is a super weird take.
00:48:51.000It's like, Newsom has been following around DeSantis, asking for debate, and finally DeSantis turned around and said, sure, let's do it.
00:48:56.000And then Newsom's like, haha, you can't be president because you're debating me.
00:49:29.000Part of me wonders if, you know, the fact that he took this debate, the fact that he took the bait in relation to this debate, shows that he's completely unqualified to be President of the United States.
00:49:45.000I mean, why is he debating a guy who's not even running for president when he's running for president?
00:49:49.000He's showing up at the Reagan library, hollow ground, and he puts out an ad today, not for his presidential campaign, to promote a debate against the governor of California?
00:50:04.000But if you do debate me, that means you're bad, is a very weird take from Gavin Newsom, who's, again, just sitting around hoping that Joe Biden dies.
00:50:12.000Because he figures that since he's running a shadow campaign, if that happens, then he picks up the pieces.
00:50:18.000Meanwhile, again, Joe Biden's administration continues to be a bleep show.
00:50:20.000It's the thing that is keeping Republicans competitive in this race.
00:50:24.000Pete Buttigieg, the Secretary of Transportation, who theoretically should be the one involved, you know, he's the Secretary of Transportation in the UAW issues, or Secretary of Labor should be involved.
00:50:33.000Joe Biden shows up to the picket lines, as we discussed yesterday on the program, in one of the most corrupt acts I've ever seen from a United States president.
00:50:39.000He shows up wearing a UAW hat in the middle of a labor dispute, which is totally crazy.
00:50:43.000And Buttigieg was asked, so does he support the UAW's agenda, since the UAW wants a 32-hour French workweek?
00:50:50.000They want a 40% pay raise over the next four years, cost of living adjusted.
00:50:53.000They want defined benefits pension plans.
00:50:57.000They want the moon, the sun, and the stars.
00:51:44.000So tie all that together and explain why it is so difficult to stop it.
00:51:49.000So first of all, I think we should start even at the beginning, which is that fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat we've ever faced.
00:51:56.000It is also incredibly cheap to make, and it is easy to transport or hide, because these tiny quantities, the amount that you can fit on the tip of a pencil, are deadly.
00:52:07.000And so this has completely changed the face of narcotics trafficking in the world.
00:52:12.000These are man-made synthetic drugs, starting with these chemicals coming from China, going
00:52:17.000to Mexico where they are made into fentanyl powder and then often pressed into pills.
00:52:23.000The powder and the pills are coming across into the U.S.
00:52:53.000So basically, This museum was started by a rabbi who looks at the Bible in light of science, and he goes through the Bible and he looks at what the language of the Bible means with regard to animals.
00:53:06.000So, for example, when it talks about deer in the Bible, the word for deer actually means gazelle, but because people who are translating the Bible weren't living in Israel, they didn't know the species that actually they were talking about when they translated the Bible.
00:53:20.000And so, you actually have to go back to the original.
00:53:25.000It's, again, a merger of science and religion that's really worth the visit, so you should go check that out.
00:53:29.000The Biblical Museum of Natural History.
00:53:30.000I took my kids there yesterday, and it was, indeed, a lot of fun.
00:53:33.000If you're looking for more travel recommendations, if you ever come to Israel, I'm happy to give them.
00:53:37.000In fact, I think we're going to be putting out more material in the near future about some places you should and definitely should not go if you are visiting around here.
00:53:43.000Okay, time for some things that I hate.
00:53:49.000Okay, so last night in Philadelphia, every liquor store in the city closed.
00:53:53.000Every single liquor store in the city.
00:53:56.000They closed because several locations were looted shortly after the conclusion of peaceful protests against a judge's decision to dismiss all charges against a former Philadelphia police officer in a fatal traffic stop shooting.
00:54:05.000So the police made dozens of arrests following Tuesday night's looting.
00:54:08.000And they said they were prepared to make more if things got out of hand on Wednesday evening.
00:54:11.000So out of concern for public safety, they shut all 49 retail wine and liquor stores In Philadelphia.
00:54:20.000Which is the sign of a well-functioning city, is you shut all of your retail establishments because you're afraid that people are going to loot the living crap out of it.
00:54:25.000In fact, there was tape of juveniles looting multiple stores in Philadelphia.
00:54:31.000Looters ransacking Center City stores first, then police headed to Port Richmond and Northeast Philadelphia as caravans of kids and teens moved fast from location to location.
00:55:04.000Yeah, police calling these looters criminal opportunists who went out after this peaceful protest had ended, hitting stores like the Lululemon.
00:56:44.000Why have the cops not been allowed to arrest every single one of these people and their parents?
00:56:48.000Why is it that we are supposed to pretend that mass criminality, if it is disproportionately of one particular race, is in fact something justifiable?
00:56:56.000I promise you that if there were vast Vast crowds of looting white teens going into the center of Philadelphia and stealing things.
00:57:04.000I don't think that you'd be getting the kind of national media blackout that you've been receiving for this particular story.
00:57:09.000And by the way, Philadelphia is not the only city that's been hit by this stuff.
00:57:18.000It was tied into the protest in the first place.
00:57:20.000The entire lie that the police are systemically racist has led to a feeling among a certain small subset of a certain group that believes that they are impervious to actual law-abidingness, that they have a right to go into stores and steal things.
00:57:35.000Now, I don't even understand how a person has the moral impetus to believe that you have the right to steal a thing.
00:57:45.000Laughing hysterically while people en masse commit acts of criminality and the cops aren't there to stop them?
00:57:51.000I mean, this is societally ruinous stuff.
00:57:54.000But it's being treated with kid gloves specifically because if you were to say the opposite, which is criminality of any race is disgusting, despicable, and criminals should go to jail.
00:58:04.000And we need more cops to arrest more people who commit criminal acts so that they all go to jail if they commit criminal acts.
00:58:09.000Anybody who commits criminal acts should go to jail.
00:58:12.000If that were the actual take, then the immediate response from left would be disproportionate number of black people going to jail, racist, terrible, fewer cops.
00:58:19.000We know because it's exactly what happened in 2020.
00:58:22.000Man, the wages of racial intersectionality when it comes to crime, vast criminal behavior.
00:58:31.000All right, guys, the rest of the show continues right now.