Elizabeth Warren gains in the polls, Democrats struggle with their own radicalism, and President Trump's Afghanistan policy collapses into chaos. Today's After Show Was Hosted By: Ben Shapiro Ben Shapiro is a regular contributor to the New York Times, CNN, CBS, and other media outlets. He is also the host of the popular podcast, The Ben Shapiro Show, which he hosts with his good friend and long-time friend, John Rocha, who is a frequent guest on conservative media outlets such as Fox News and conservative talk show host Laura Ingraham's radio show on SiriusXM's The HOSTBOWL, which she hosts with her husband, former Vice President Joe Biden, and former House Speaker Tip O'Conner, who's now running for President in 2020 against Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, the two other Democratic presidential hopefuls in the Democratic primary race. Subscribe to the After Show and get immediate access to all of Ben Shapiro's latest podcasts, wherever you listen to his shows. Use the promo code: "UPLEVEL" to receive $5 off your first purchase of a new digital copy of his newest book, "Upcoming: Rise Like A Billionaire". You'll get 5% off the entire course, plus an additional $5 discount when you become a patron when you upgrade your membership when you buy a new book or membership gets available through Audible.com/BenShapiro. Click here to get $5 and get a complimentary copy of the book, Rise Like That? Learn more about the book "Updates From Ben Shapiro: How to Win It All? and other perks and perks like that throughout the course of the show! Watch this video on my new book: "Downhill From Downhill From This Is Winning It All, How Will I Win It? How Will It All Happen? I'll Be Winning It, I'll See You Win It, Too Much Better Than You Will Win It In The Next Two Weeks, Will I See It, Will You Hear It, We'll Be There, I'm Gotta Have It, It's Gotta Be It?" Subscribe To My Story And Learn More About It, Subscribe To See It On The Other Side Of It, Hear It On This And More On This Podcast? Subscribe And Share It On Social Media And Subscribe To It And Subscribe It On Podcasts And Other Places That Will Help Me Hear It And More In The Podcasts?
00:00:00.000Elizabeth Warren gains in the polls, Democrats struggle with their own radicalism, and President Trump's Afghanistan policy collapses into chaos.
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00:02:07.000In all likelihood, this turns into a gang attack on Joe Biden by Bernie Sanders and by Elizabeth Warren and by Kamala Harris and by Cory Booker.
00:02:15.000And that's because the dynamics of the race have shifted somewhat.
00:02:18.000Right now, if you are Kamala Harris or Cory Booker, what you're figuring is that Elizabeth Warren looks like she is taking a huge chunk of Joe Biden's white support.
00:02:26.000And if Joe Biden should collapse, is the black support that Joe Biden currently has, is that support going to shift over to Elizabeth Warren?
00:02:34.000Or is it more likely that it shifts over to somebody like a Kamala Harris or to somebody like a Cory Booker, which is why they're still in the race.
00:02:40.000Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is still clinging to the hope that he is the great progressive alternative to Joe Biden, not Elizabeth Warren.
00:02:46.000And that hope is not completely unsupportable.
00:02:48.000The fact is that there are several polls that show that Bernie Sanders on a national level out polls Elizabeth Warren.
00:02:54.000Elizabeth Warren is doing really well in a lot of these early states, and it's still extremely early.
00:02:59.000And Joe Biden continues to gaffe and gaffe and gaffe and gaffe.
00:03:02.000He's an extraordinarily weak front runner.
00:03:04.000As I've been saying for months, Joe Biden's best day would be his first day.
00:04:43.000But everybody is acknowledging that Joe Biden is stumbling and bumbling and bumbling and stumbling, Chris Berman style.
00:04:49.000But he's not going to make the end zone.
00:04:50.000He's going to be knocked out of play probably by the time we hit the 30 yard line here, because the fact is that Joe Biden has no momentum, none.
00:04:57.000All it takes right now is a solid love tap from Elizabeth Warren.
00:05:01.000And Joe Biden has a serious, serious problem on his hands.
00:05:04.000And Elizabeth Warren may not deliver it.
00:05:06.000What her smart strategy here made it be completely inoffensive.
00:05:31.000Because you have to understand that when you're a member of the coastal media, when you are writing for the New York Times or the Washington Post or the Los Angeles Times, you are a member of a particular elite.
00:05:42.000And this elite usually means you went to a good university.
00:05:45.000It means that you've been hanging out with people who think like you for a long time.
00:05:48.000And the biggest thing is that you don't want to be seen by all the people who surround you as unintelligent.
00:05:53.000The coin of the realm in coastal elite circles is not that you are the most moral person in the room, not that you're the best person, not that you give the most charity, not that you attend church the most.
00:06:03.000The coin of the realm is that you're the smartest.
00:06:04.000That's the thing that matters more than anything else.
00:06:06.000My friend Dennis Prager is constantly saying that, you know, when it comes to parenting, what parents should focus on is producing good children, not kids who went to an Ivy League school.
00:06:14.000But very often that sense of values is reversed when it comes to assessment of merit.
00:06:34.000And this makes them feel super good about themselves.
00:06:36.000They love Elizabeth Warren and that says something about you.
00:06:38.000You have to understand that when you're voting on the left, I mean, it's true on the right also, but I think it's more true on the left at this point.
00:06:45.000The way you vote is seen as a moral imprimatur on you, not on the candidate.
00:06:50.000It's not that you're granting your moral imprimatur to the candidate.
00:06:53.000It's that your support of the candidate says something about you.
00:06:55.000So, if you're a Bernie Sanders supporter, what that says about you to everyone else is why people put bumper stickers on their car.
00:07:01.000What it says to everyone else is that you're passionate about the issues.
00:07:09.000And if you're a supporter of Kamala Harris, it means that you're someone who believes in criminal justice reform and racial equity.
00:07:16.000And if you're somebody who supports Joe Biden, it says that you're sort of a reasonable elder statesman in the party, which is why you're not seeing a lot of bumper stickers, because who wants a bumper sticker that says I'm a reasonable elder statesman person, right?
00:07:28.000Elizabeth Warren, you stick that on your on your bumper sticker and you feel progressive.
00:07:31.000But not only do you feel progressive, you get sort of the quality of Bernie Sanders, but you also get to say, and I'm so smart too, because she has so many plans for the media.
00:07:40.000That describes them to a T. So they've been praising Elizabeth Warren nonstop for months.
00:08:03.000Well, one of Elizabeth Warren's big plans that the media have paid very little attention to, I mean, they've run a couple of fact checks, but then they've ignored it.
00:08:10.000And so she keeps continuing to claim it, is that all of her giant plans will be paid for by an enormous wealth tax.
00:08:17.000This is Elizabeth Warren over the weekend at the New Hampshire Democratic Party Convention explaining that all she's going to do is tax people who have assets more than $50 million, 2 or 3 percent.
00:08:26.000She's going to take all their money from them at that rate, because again, remember, that's every single year.
00:08:30.000She's going to take 2 or 3 percent of their net wealth.
00:08:32.000And then she's going to use that for a variety of government programs.
00:09:29.000But beyond that, her plan actually makes no sense.
00:09:32.000Because the fact is, if she thinks she's raising $2.75 trillion over the next 10 years with this wealth tax, number one, it's unconstitutional.
00:09:39.000There's nothing in the Constitution that allows you to tax wealth.
00:09:42.000Not income, which was legalized idiotically by the 16th Amendment, but wealth.
00:09:46.000There's nothing there that allows you to tax wealth itself.
00:09:49.000Especially stuff that people have already paid tax on.
00:09:51.000You're talking about, I already paid property tax, I already paid tax on all of the income that I make, and now you're going to come in and tax me again?
00:09:58.000Based on what moral principle are you going to tax me?
00:10:00.000Again, beyond that, just speaking realistically, it is not going to raise this amount of money.
00:10:06.000That is not me speaking, that's factcheck.org speaking.
00:10:09.000Quote, some economists think that assumption is too rosy.
00:10:12.000While neither the Tax Policy Center nor the Tax Foundation have yet released a full analysis of Warren's plan, economists at both said there is reason to believe that Warren's revenue estimate is too high.
00:10:22.000Kyle Pomerlew, a Chief Economist and Vice President of Economic Analysis at the nonprofit ProBusiness Tax Foundation, said the assumption of 15% tax evasion, her plan says there'll be 15% tax evasion or avoidance.
00:10:33.000He says that's actually the average avoidance for the entire U.S.
00:10:36.000tax system, which is primarily the income tax and payroll tax.
00:10:39.000These taxes are much harder to avoid than a wealth tax because an income transaction is hard to game or hide from the tax authorities.
00:10:46.000A wealth tax, on the other hand, is much harder to enforce.
00:10:48.000For one, much of the wealth tax base doesn't have a market price.
00:10:51.000So, for example, I own an ownership stake in Daily Wire.
00:11:02.000It's not like a piece of stock that is publicly held.
00:11:05.000And it's not just people on the right who are suggesting all of this.
00:11:08.000Lawrence Summers, who was formerly a Harvard University Dean, and he was Treasury Secretary from 1999 to 2001, and Economic Advisor for Barack Obama, and Natasha Sarin, an Assistant Professor of Law at University of Pennsylvania Law School, they published an op-ed in the Washington Post just earlier this year saying, common sense revenue estimates by economists, who are not very deeply steeped in revenue estimation, tend to be overly optimistic.
00:12:03.000You can just take your money and go to the Cayman Islands and buy a nice home there and stay there.
00:12:06.000You don't have to worry about Elizabeth Warren.
00:12:09.000Summers and Saron wrote, we suspect that to a great extent, it reflects the myriad ways wealthy people avoid paying estate taxes that in some form will be applicable in any actually legislated wealth tax.
00:12:19.000So for example, the estate tax is a form of wealth tax, right?
00:12:21.000You die, and then the government opens, like they walk right by your corpse, they open up your safe and they take a chunk of your money.
00:12:27.000What people do is instead they create living trusts, and they put their money in a living trust for their children.
00:12:32.000So when they die, the money didn't belong to them, it belonged to their children already.
00:12:38.000They say all of the methods that are used to avoid the estate tax will also be used to avoid the wealth tax.
00:12:44.000They say these include questionable appraisals, valuation discounts for illiquidity and lack of control, establishment of trusts that enable division of assets among family members with substantial founder control, planning devices that give some income to charity while keeping the remainder for the donor and beneficiaries, tax advantage lending schemes, and other complex devices known only to sophisticated investors.
00:13:04.000Except for reducing a naive calculation by 15%.
00:13:06.000Warren's economic advisors do not seem to take account of these devices.
00:13:10.000If our suspicion is correct, a wealth tax will not yield the revenue its proponents hope for.
00:13:14.000And when actual scorekeepers score actual proposals, their estimates will disappoint advocates.
00:13:19.000This is obviously true, but Elizabeth Warren's gonna keep trotting that out there.
00:13:23.000It doesn't matter because, again, she gives a feeling of flattery to a media that is desperate to be flattered.
00:13:30.000It's the reason the media hate Trump so much, by the way.
00:13:31.000It's not just because Trump is a Republican.
00:13:33.000It's because Trump makes them feel like they don't get Americans.
00:13:38.000They look at Trump and they have scorn for him.
00:13:39.000They think, oh, what a dummy, what a fool, what a stupid guy.
00:14:04.000She talks about universal childcare for every child age zero to five.
00:14:07.000She wrote an entire book about how this would disadvantage married mothers who stay at home and how you need now subsidies for married moms who stay at home.
00:14:17.000In her book, she talks about why it would be a mistake to relieve student loans.
00:14:25.000She said that it would be a mistake not to just cap tuition, not to just cap the amount that colleges can charge for tuition on a public level, as opposed to subsidizing the student loan industry, as opposed to paying off people's loans and quote-unquote paying for free college and all of the rest of this.
00:14:41.000And now she backs all of those things.
00:14:43.000Because here's the dirty little secret.
00:14:45.000Elizabeth Warren has become a deeply dishonest politician.
00:14:48.000I'll provide proof of this in one second, plus I will tell you where she actually stands in the polls and why she really is the shadow frontrunner at this point for the Democrats.
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00:16:19.000They have now polled all of the Super Tuesday states.
00:16:22.000All of the states up through Super Tuesday.
00:16:24.000So it goes in the Democratic Party, it goes to Iowa, and then New Hampshire, and then South Carolina, Nevada, California, and a bunch of other states on Super Tuesday.
00:16:31.000Right now, Bernie doesn't win very many delegates.
00:16:35.000Biden has 600 delegates available through Super Tuesday.
00:16:42.000Biden's entire narrative is that he's the inevitable nominee and the inevitable president.
00:16:46.000If Warren emerges from Iowa and New Hampshire victorious, I don't think that his lead simply holds up in a lot of these Super Tuesday states.
00:16:56.000Bernie Sanders is rounding out the top tier of candidates with 286 delegates in those races.
00:17:01.000But I don't think that Bernie retains all those delegates.
00:17:04.000Because remember, all the polls are being done now about all of those states, but those states are time-delayed.
00:17:09.000It goes Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and then on Wednesday you have California, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, Virginia, Minnesota, and Maine.
00:17:21.000And Massachusetts, which presumably Warren will win since she's a senator from there.
00:17:24.000If Elizabeth Warren emerges as the serious challenger from Iowa and New Hampshire and Bernie doesn't win either of those states, I think Bernie's toast.
00:17:32.000I think at that point Bernie is done and you can take a lot of those delegates, those 286 delegates, and you can toss them to Elizabeth Warren.
00:17:39.000According to that CBS News YouGov poll, state by state in vote preference, New Hampshire now sees Warren just slightly up over Biden and Sanders in first choice preference there, which is a change for her.
00:17:48.000Remember, she was underperforming in New Hampshire as of a couple of weeks ago.
00:17:52.000They say that that's a three-way contest, but that's not a three-way contest.
00:17:55.000If Elizabeth Warren wins Iowa, and she already is running even with Biden and Sanders in that state, then she wins that state too.
00:18:04.000Biden holds a small edge over Sanders in first-choice preference in Iowa.
00:18:07.000Sanders has a narrow edge over Biden in Nevada.
00:18:09.000But where is Elizabeth Warren in these states?
00:18:12.000Well, she has the best on-the-ground organization in Iowa.
00:18:15.000She trails substantially by 9 to 12 points in Iowa.
00:18:28.000You recall back in 2008, Hillary Clinton was expected to win Iowa over Barack Obama and Barack Obama won instead.
00:18:34.000There were suspicions that that may have not been entirely on the up and up.
00:18:37.000South Carolina, Joe Biden has a wide lead.
00:18:40.000He's at 43% compared to Bernie at 18 and Elizabeth Warren at 14.
00:18:43.000But again, that relies somewhat on momentum.
00:18:47.000Remember that Ted Cruz won South Carolina, I believe, last time around, and it was widely perceived that Ted Cruz was going to have some sort of firewall.
00:18:55.000Whenever a candidate talks about a firewall, I have yet to see a candidate with a quote-unquote firewall where the firewall holds.
00:19:01.000Right now, Bernie Sanders is up slightly in Nevada, 29 to 27 over Joe Biden, but Elizabeth Warren's at 18, which means she is in striking distance.
00:19:09.000Overall, in the early contest, it is now Elizabeth Warren 26, Joe Biden 25, Bernie Sanders 19.
00:19:15.000And it is likely that Bernie Sanders is going to continue to recede and Elizabeth Warren is going to increase.
00:19:21.000According to CBS News, Biden support has largely held and even risen in some places like in Iowa.
00:19:27.000So the movement toward Warren is not attrition from Biden, but of lower tier candidates losing supporter who have gone to Warren or in lesser numbers to Sanders.
00:19:34.000For instance, Warren has benefited most from former Kamala Harris' supporter switching their allegiance.
00:19:40.00029% were backing Harris in July, whom we re-interviewed for the study of switch to Warren.
00:19:46.000Warren is also under consideration by more Democrats, 60% than Biden is, 50%.
00:19:51.000Biden does better than Warren in being named the first choice, but she is best among second choice candidates.
00:19:57.000And again, it's really about electability.
00:19:58.000And as the polls change for Elizabeth Warren on that front, that is very bad news for Joe Biden, meaning he has to continue making the case that Warren can't be Trump.
00:20:27.00058% of Sanders supporters think he would probably beat Trump.
00:20:31.000Overall, most Democrats are pretty optimistic that somebody, anybody they nominate will beat Trump.
00:20:37.000So again, I think that, and here's, I mean, as I say, the self-flattering assumption by the media is reflected in their media coverage, and that of course shapes public opinion.
00:20:47.000One of the numbers in this poll that really says a lot is that when asked which candidate is the most knowledgeable, it says Warren at 42%, Biden and Sanders tied at 24.
00:20:56.000And that is because when you just keep repeating over and over and over again that Warren has a plan, it doesn't matter if the plan is crap.
00:21:04.000And then there's a third question, which is whether age is a concern.
00:21:10.00066% of Democrats say that Joe Biden That age is not a concern, but 31% say that he's too old.
00:21:19.000Only 5% of Democrats say that Warren is too old.
00:21:21.000So more evidence of Joe Biden stumbling and bumbling about the campaign trail is not going to be good for him either.
00:21:26.000And 46% of Democrats say that they would be enthusiastic about Elizabeth Warren as the candidate compared to 38% for Sanders and only 29% for Joe Biden.
00:21:37.000So again, these are bad numbers for Joe Biden.
00:22:05.000And again, I don't think that Warren is really going to go after Biden in a serious way.
00:22:10.000I think she's just going to assume that Biden is going to fade into the Brigadoon-like fog.
00:22:14.000And I think that she's probably correct about that.
00:22:17.000Now, there's a problem, which is that all of you talk about Elizabeth Warren being supremely honest and non-Clintonian is a lie.
00:22:25.000That's a real problem for her because she has yet to meet serious public scrutiny.
00:22:30.000Remember, the Elizabeth Warren who built up a public profile from 2003 to 2008 is not the same as the Elizabeth Warren now running for president.
00:22:39.000The Elizabeth Warren from 2003 to 2008 was actually a fairly interesting progressive figure who thought differently on school vouchers and student loans.
00:22:46.000Who thought seriously about issues like bankruptcy.
00:22:49.000Now she's just a rubber stamp progressive who sounds a lot like Bernie Sanders.
00:23:08.000According to Jonathan Allen, Elizabeth Warren's team doesn't want to talk about Hillary Clinton, but that doesn't mean the 2020 presidential candidate isn't talking with her party's 2016 nominee.
00:23:17.000The two women have kept a line of communication open since the Massachusetts senator decided to run for president, though only a conversation around the time of Warren's launch has been previously reported, according to several people familiar with their discussions, who spoke to NBC on the condition of anonymity because of the political sensitivity of private interactions.
00:23:34.000It's hard to know exactly how many times they've reached out to each other, or precisely what they've discussed, in part because neither camp wants to reveal much of anything about their interaction.
00:23:42.000And in part because they have each other's phone numbers, and there are many ways for two high-powered politicians to communicate that don't involve their staffs.
00:23:49.000One source was aware of just one additional call between Warren and Clinton since then, but a person close to Clinton said the contact has been substantial enough to merit attention, describing a conversation between the two as seemingly recent because it was front of mind for her.
00:24:18.000We're now past summer, and that means you better rev up for the end of the year.
00:24:22.000As vacation season wraps up and you fall back to your normal routine, you need to get your stuff done with LegalZoom before we hit end of year.
00:24:28.000There is an urgency to getting your business on track before we hit 2020.
00:24:33.000Right now, LegalZoom is making it easier to stay so long to summer by saving you 10% off the things you need to accomplish.
00:24:39.000For all you entrepreneurs that haven't set up an LLC, DBA, or S-Corp for your business, now would be the time to save money.
00:24:44.000And if you've been meaning to wrap up your last will or living trust, but you can't seem to find the time, take a moment, do the right thing for your family, make sure they're taken care of.
00:24:51.000If you get confused or have questions, don't let that slow you down either.
00:25:23.000So again, Elizabeth Warren is now reaching out to Hillary Clinton.
00:25:27.000This is very different from Elizabeth Warren talking about Hillary Clinton as of her book, The Two Income Trap, in 2003.
00:25:36.000Glenn Kessler wrote about this for the Washington Post just a couple of years ago.
00:25:43.000He said Warren noted that Hillary Clinton had received $140,000 in campaign contributions from banking industry executives as she sought a Senate seat.
00:25:51.000Because she talks about how she had met with Hillary Clinton about a bankruptcy bill in the early 90s.
00:25:57.000And she praised Hillary Clinton as extremely bright.
00:26:00.000She called her, quote, impatient, lightning quick, interested in all the nuances.
00:26:06.000And then, it turns out that Hillary voted against the bill, or in favor of the bill that Elizabeth Warren opposed, and she tore into her in the two-income trap.
00:26:15.000She said the bill was essentially the same, but Hillary Rodham Clinton was not.
00:26:18.000Hillary could not afford such a principled position.
00:26:20.000Campaigns cost money, and that money wasn't coming from families in financial trouble.
00:26:23.000Here's Elizabeth Warren, circa 2004, talking about how Hillary Clinton is basically a corrupt figure.
00:27:06.000As Senator Clinton, the pressures are very different.
00:27:10.000Okay, so this is Warren back when she was honest.
00:27:13.000Right now, you got Elizabeth Warren making phone calls to Hillary Clinton, now they're best friends.
00:27:17.000And Elizabeth Warren has shifted her own positions on a variety of issues ranging from the subsidization of college education to school choice because the pressures of being a senator or a presidential candidate are very different.
00:27:28.000Now, this does pose a problem for the Democrats because the fact is that most people in the country are not on board with all of the progressive views on all of the issues.
00:27:36.000David Leonhardt, Has a piece in the New York Times today talking about this.
00:27:39.000He is on the left and he says it's not that progressivism can't win.
00:27:43.000He's saying that there are certain progressive issues that are deeply unpopular and they should be.
00:27:48.000He points out a couple of issues as an example.
00:27:50.000He says the first is the idea of decriminalizing border crossings so that the illegal entry into this country would only be a civil violation.
00:27:57.000Supporters of the idea, says Leonhardt, make intricate, technocratic arguments about how decriminalization won't make the border less secure.
00:28:05.000They don't buy the long explanations for why the policy doesn't mean what it certainly seems to mean, less border enforcement.
00:28:11.000In an NPR-PBS NewsHour Marist poll, 67% of registered voters called decriminalization a bad idea.
00:28:19.000When it comes to slavery reparations, 63% of Americans call it a bad idea.
00:28:23.000When it comes to replacing private insurance, 55% say it's a bad idea.
00:28:28.000When it comes to free public college, 51% say it's a good idea, but 45% say it's a bad idea.
00:28:35.000In other words, there are a lot of issues where people are generally in favor of progressive principles until they get the details in which place they switch.
00:28:43.000But Democrats' advantage on general election-directed questions has been fading.
00:28:50.000David Leonhardt points out that slightly more voters say that the ideas being offered by the Democratic candidates would now hurt the country more than would help the country, according to that NPR poll.
00:29:01.000As of September 2018, 53% of Americans had a favorable view of the Democratic Party versus 42% unfavorable.
00:29:11.00043% had a favorable view of the Republican Party compared to 52% unfavorable.
00:29:17.000As of September 2019, fast forward a year, the two parties are now identical.
00:29:21.00045% of Americans say that they are favorable toward one of the parties.
00:29:26.00052% of Americans say they're unfavorable toward one of the two parties.
00:29:30.000Meaning that basically the parties are now on even footing.
00:29:34.000So all of the talk about Elizabeth Warren this and Elizabeth Warren that, as she skews radical, it's going to be unpopular.
00:29:41.000And this is the problem inside the Democratic primaries.
00:29:43.000What is going to create victory in a Democratic primary may be mutually exclusive with what creates victory for Democrats in a general election.
00:30:24.000That's a hell of a campaign slogan there, Beto.
00:30:27.000This is a violent country that loses more than 40,000 of our fellow Americans every year to gun violence.
00:30:33.000And this is a country that has been defined by foundational, systemic, endemic racism since the very founding of this country, August 20th of 1619.
00:30:44.000The first time that a kidnapped African was brought here against his will and made to serve as a slave to build the greatness and the success and the wealth of this country, which his descendants would never be able to fully participate in.
00:30:58.000This is the reality of the United States of America.
00:31:01.000And sooner or later, it was going to find us.
00:31:04.000Okay, I mean, that's a hell of a campaign slogan.
00:31:06.000America was founded in crap, and now it's still crap, and it was gonna come back to haunt us.
00:31:25.000He said we should legalize 10 million illegal immigrants.
00:31:27.000This is a hell of a campaign slogan right here from Beto O'Rourke.
00:31:30.000But again, Beto thinks that he is representing the id of the Democratic Party.
00:31:33.000He's hoping that if he says the F word a lot, if he just says, bruh, F it, if he says that a lot, and then he also says America sucks, that he'll somehow win the nomination.
00:31:42.000We're going to legalize the presence of more than 10 million in the United States, beginning with DREAMers who will never again fear deportation back to a country they do not know, because we will make them U.S.
00:31:53.000citizens in this, their true home country.
00:31:57.000OK, so again, if this is where the Democratic Party wants to go and Elizabeth Warren is closer to this than she is to Joe Biden, that's a real problem for Rahm Emanuel, who is the chief of staff to Barack Obama and is certainly no right winger.
00:32:10.000He says, listen, these positions are untenable.
00:32:11.000You are not going to be able to win a general election on these bases.
00:32:15.000We've taken a position so far, and the candidates have, through the process, a few have not, about basically Medicare for All, which is we're going to eliminate 150 million people's health care, and we're going to provide health care for people that just come over the border.
00:32:27.000That is an untenable position for the general election.
00:32:31.000Okay, and of course Rahm Emanuel is exactly right.
00:32:33.000That's coming from a guy who is so passionate about his left-wing agenda, he used to drop dead—he was literally called Dead Fish Emanuel.
00:32:38.000He would drop dead fish In the in like the lockers of Congress people that he didn't like in order to try to get them to vote with him, like to threaten them when he was in Congress.
00:32:48.000I mean, that that guy is not a softie on politics by any measure.
00:32:53.000And he's looking at the Democratic Party going, you guys are skewing way too far to the left.
00:32:56.000And that right there is the problem for Elizabeth Warren.
00:32:58.000Now, in a second, we're going to talk about the Republican case for 2020.
00:33:01.000And again, This is all about, can the president control himself?
00:33:07.000Because if he could, then he would be in pretty good shape going forward.
00:33:10.000But we'll get to that in just one second.
00:33:12.000First, let's talk about, you know, you're out at some sort of dinner party, and you're looking for a job, or you're just looking to make contacts, you're rainmaking a little bit, and somebody says, do you have a business card?
00:33:22.000So you pull out your business card, and it looks like this ridiculous thing that you cut off the piece of paper yourself, that you printed off your printer, and just looks like garbage.
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00:34:07.000I will admit that the look of the business card does make a difference into whether I hand it off to my assistant or whether it goes in the garbage pail.
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00:34:42.000Well, we'll get to more of all of this in just one second.
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00:35:19.000Well, before we leave the Democrats entirely, I would be remiss if I did not point out that the most incompetent candidate on the Democratic side of the aisle is not, in fact, Joe Biden.
00:36:40.000What do you do to plan to diminish the mentally retarded faction of this country, the guy says, and she says, well said.
00:36:45.000I mean, she is in favor of eugenic abortion.
00:36:47.000So that would be one thing, presumably, that should be in favor of because she's a terrible person who believes terrible things.
00:36:52.000But I mean, the term mentally retarded, I'm old enough to remember when that was considered a really, really bad thing because it is a bad thing.
00:37:00.000Mocking people who have a mental disability is a ridiculous, ridiculous thing.
00:37:19.000Kamala Harris or your own eyes and ears?
00:37:22.000Here's Kamala Harris now apologizing for this.
00:37:24.000It's offensive and you would think that in the year 2019, people would have a much better understanding of how hurtful a term like that can be, but also the history behind it, for this.
00:37:24.000It's offensive and you would think that in the year 2019 people would have a much better understanding of how hurtful a term like that can be but also the history behind it which is a history of really ignoring the needs and the realities and the capacity of our disability community.
00:37:50.000I heard him talk about the other stuff and then that came later and it was not something that I really heard or processed or in any way condoned.
00:38:25.000When you have somebody who says something bad about illegal immigrants, and then he says, well, I guess you can do that when he says, Yeah, I guess you can do that in Florida.
00:39:27.000Because it turns out that reality has a fairly conservative bent on issues like illegal immigration, You know, saying that we should keep track of the people who are in the country, that we should make sure that we know who is entering the country, this seems like it makes a certain amount of root sense, especially when you get stories like this one out of Montgomery County.
00:39:45.000According to Dan Morse, Montgomery County's top elected official Mark Elrich stood before a bank of TV cameras this summer to praise the county's diversity and promise the most limited of cooperation with federal immigration agents.
00:39:57.000I'd say we've learned how to manage immigration pretty well, he said, without a lot of drama and nonsense.
00:40:01.000Since then, there's been plenty of both, at least according to the opposing sides of a roiling political debate centered on the left-leaning Maryland jurisdiction.
00:40:09.000National attention has fallen on Montgomery in large part because over the five-week stretch since the county executive's pronouncement, seven undocumented immigrants living in the county were arrested on sex assault charges.
00:40:19.000Two were accused of raping the same 11-year-old girl, according to the Washington Post.
00:40:23.000Another reportedly tried to kill his victim by choking her in a hallway of her apartment building.
00:40:27.000By Friday afternoon, Ken Cuccinelli, acting director of ICE, tweeted, a debate challenge to Elrich over the merits of what Cuccinelli described as the county's sanctuary protection policies for undocumented immigrants.
00:40:38.000Cuccinelli wrote, quote, I'll defend children and crime victims.
00:40:41.000Elrich can defend rapists and murderers who shouldn't even be in this country.
00:40:46.000I might debate him if he'd agree with the statement that Montgomery County is not a sanctuary city and that Montgomery County is not protecting criminals.
00:40:52.000The guys in jail would probably not feel very protected.
00:40:55.000Yeah, except that when you don't cooperate with the federal government on immigration, sometimes you're not keeping track of illegal immigrants who go on to commit crimes.
00:41:02.000These are all issues where Republicans should have an advantage.
00:41:04.000Instead, we got a week of controversy over whether President Trump used a sharpie on a map.
00:41:10.000Now, on the issues, again, even the left, David Leonhardt is saying on illegal immigration, on racial reparations, on getting rid of private healthcare insurance, the Democrats are way out of tune.
00:41:20.000Shouldn't Trump just be hammering that over and over?
00:41:22.000Instead, we got a week of controversy over whether the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration was actually right or wrong in their assessment of a threat level of a hurricane hitting Alabama.
00:41:49.000And the fact that people on Twitter keep defending it demonstrates that they don't understand that Twitter is not real life.
00:41:54.000And winning the Twitter battle does not mean winning an election.
00:41:57.000Andrew Friedman, Colby Itkowitz, and Jason Samenow.
00:42:00.000I love that the Washington Post put three reporters on this.
00:42:03.000NOAA staff warned in September 1st directive against contradicting Trump, nearly a week before the NOAA publicly backed President Trump over its own scientists.
00:42:11.000A top NOAA official warned its staff against contradicting the president.
00:42:14.000In an agency-wide directive sent September 1st to National Weather Service personnel hours after Trump asserted, with no evidence, that Alabama would most likely be hit much harder than anticipated, staff was told to only stick with official National Hurricane Center forecasts if questions arise on some national-level social media posts, which hit the news this afternoon.
00:42:32.000They were also told not to provide any opinion, according to a copy of the email obtained by the Washington Post.
00:42:39.000An NOAA meteorologist who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution said the note was understood initially to be referring to Trump and came after the National Weather Service office in Birmingham contradicted Trump by tweeting that Alabama would not see any impact from the hurricane.
00:42:54.000So the NOAA sent a note saying, let's just stick with the National Hurricane Center forecast and we won't, and we won't, you know, contradict Trump.
00:43:02.000Any attempt to shield Trump's ego, honestly, I don't see the purpose of it.
00:43:06.000The fact is that President Trump, for all the talk about him being thin-skinned, dude takes more crap than any other politician I've ever seen in my life.
00:43:16.000And yet, this attempt to sort of shield him, it ends up creating worse headlines than if you just let Trump own it.
00:43:22.000If Trump just went, OK, screw that one up, you know, I guess I was out of the loop.
00:43:28.000The Democrats would still attack him, but they wouldn't have any place to go because most people would be like, what are they attacking him over?
00:43:35.000Meanwhile, it is amusing to watch as other Republicans seem to believe that they can jump in against President Trump in this race.
00:43:42.000So Mark Sanford, the former Republican governor of South Carolina, Remember that time when he was governor of South Carolina and then he went traveling the Appalachian Trail.
00:43:53.000That was his euphemism for sleeping with his mistress in South America.
00:44:19.000You're not going to receive the strange new respect of the media for running against Trump.
00:44:22.000The fact is, many in the media would like to link every Republican with President Trump, as Democrats are attempting to do in Texas, where Trump is less popular than the Republican Party overall.
00:44:31.000Also, Mark Sanford, like, why is he running?
00:44:33.000Chris Wallace basically asked him this question, and Sanford didn't have a great answer.
00:44:37.000The mistakes in life, the mistakes that we make are the great tuitions of life.
00:44:42.000They cost us, but you can learn from them.
00:44:44.000And for me, I learned a level of humility, a level of empathy that I didn't have before, a level of judgment.
00:44:55.000And in contrast to the President, where he says there's not a single thing that he sort of regrets or apologizes for, I profoundly apologize for that.
00:45:03.000OK, that's always a great campaign slogan.
00:45:56.000Afghanistan then was put on our bleep list and then we invaded.
00:45:59.000Well now, Donald Trump is trying to negotiate directly with the Taliban.
00:46:02.000Now, Barack Obama tried to do the same thing, and I criticized him for it because you're literally negotiating with some of the worst people on Earth to accomplish what?
00:46:13.000Well, Donald Trump was apparently secretly negotiating with the Taliban, and they were even going to get together at Camp David the week of 9-11, which is just... I mean, what?
00:46:28.000We don't think that back home in the region they would take advantage of the fact that they were at Camp David on the 18th anniversary of 9-11.
00:46:43.000That's why I questioned the whole idea of holding a meeting.
00:46:45.000He talks about, well, this deal would bring peace, but it wasn't going to bring peace.
00:46:49.000I mean, as we know the outlines of it, there was no national ceasefire.
00:46:53.000There was no assurance that there was going to be a deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
00:47:00.000There was no guarantee that they were going to protect women.
00:47:04.000I mean, the deal as we saw, the tentative deal in principle, did that make sense?
00:47:09.000And the answer is the tentative deal in principle did not make any sense.
00:47:12.000President Trump blew it up over the weekend.
00:47:14.000Now again, blowing up a bad deal is not a bad thing.
00:47:17.000Announcing secret negotiations and blowing them up at the same time is not particularly smart foreign policy.
00:47:22.000Trump tweeted out, unbeknownst to almost everyone, the major Taliban leaders and separately the president of Afghanistan were going to secretly meet with me at Camp David on Sunday.
00:47:29.000Nothing says secret meeting quite like blowing it up on Twitter.
00:47:32.000Said they were coming to the United States tonight.
00:47:34.000Unfortunately, in order to build false leverage, they admitted to an attack in Kabul that killed one of our great, great soldiers and 11 other people.
00:47:41.000I immediately canceled the meeting and called off peace negotiations.
00:47:43.000What kind of people would kill so many in order to seemingly strengthen their bargaining position?
00:47:49.000If they cannot agree to a ceasefire during these very important peace talks and would even kill 12 innocent people, then they probably don't have the power to negotiate a meaningful agreement anyway.
00:47:57.000How many more decades are they willing to fight?
00:47:59.000Well, I mean, the answer is you're negotiating with them, right?
00:48:27.000According to the New York Times, on the Friday before Labor Day, President Trump gathered top advisors in the Situation Room to consider what could be among the profound decisions of his presidency, a peace plan with the Taliban after 18 years of grinding bloody war in Afghanistan.
00:48:39.000The meeting brought to a head a bristling conflict dividing his foreign policy team for months, pitting Secretary of State Mike Pompeo against John Bolton, the National Security Advisor.
00:48:48.000As they discussed the terms of the agreement, Pompeo and his negotiator made the case that it would enable Trump to begin withdrawing troops while securing a commitment from the Taliban not to shelter terrorists.
00:48:57.000Bolton argued that Trump should keep his campaign pledge to draw down forces without getting in bed with killers swathed in American blood.
00:49:07.000At some point during the meeting, the idea was floated to finalize the negotiations in Washington, a prospect that appealed to the president's penchant for dramatic spectacle.
00:49:14.000Trump suggested he would even invite President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan, whose government had not been part of the talks, and get him to sign on.
00:49:22.000And then he wanted to bring the Taliban to Camp David, the crown jewel of the American presidency.
00:49:58.000So, if you're interested in a lot of the stories that have been coming out about AI and it's about the nature of the human brain and the possibility of networking in with other brains.
00:50:08.000There was a story this week about this, about how it could change human existence as we know it.
00:50:11.000You could read each other's thoughts and it could create network thinking and all of this.
00:50:15.000It may raise some serious questions about free will, And the soul.
00:50:18.000And this brings to mind a book that I recently read by J.P.
00:50:22.000Moreland, who's a philosophy professor over at Biola University, and it's called The Soul, How We Know It's Real and Why It Matters.
00:50:27.000Now, this is kind of a fascinating conversation, because obviously if you're a materialist, you believe that the brain is all there is, there is no such thing as a soul.
00:50:35.000Mental phenomena are basically just what they have termed to be outgrowths of just mental activity.
00:50:45.000They are kind of false positives that effectively your mental activity, your feeling of consciousness is not real.
00:50:56.000I think this is a really interesting and important debate.
00:50:59.000And as part of the debate, you should check out J.P. Moreland's book, The Soul, because the fact is if we don't have free will, that has some pretty significant ramifications for our politics and for our decision making.
00:51:08.000If we don't have the capacity to think freely, if biology is all there is and there's no afterlife, that changes the math a bit.
00:51:14.000All of these are interesting and fascinating debates that lie at the root of Western civilization, as I talk about in my own book, The Right Side of History.
00:52:01.000I was in a picture with Steve King because I went and I spoke at a congressional breakfast in Washington, D.C.
00:52:06.000This would have been two, three years ago before Steve King's big blow about white nationalism.
00:52:11.000And so every time Steve King is in the news, people throw that picture out there as though there aren't pictures of me with literally dozens of Congress people, including with some Democrats.
00:52:29.000And Jordan got in trouble because the guy wore a shirt.
00:52:32.000Okay, now this is the way that this is going to be played.
00:52:34.000So now they're doing this with Lindsey Graham.
00:52:36.000So Lindsey Graham, according to the Washington Post, appeared in a photo with Gert Wilders, a controversial Dutch parliamentary leader with anti-Islam and anti-immigrant views, while both attended a European security conference in Italy.
00:53:18.000You're not going to be in a picture with them.
00:53:19.000But do I know that Lindsey Graham knows everything about Gert Wilders, or was he just some guy who he had sort of a baseline level of knowledge about, but not enough to say, I'm never taking a picture with that guy?