Joe Biden swamps the competition in South Carolina, and that's a good thing, because Bernie Sanders is a disaster inside the Democratic Party. Today's show is sponsored by ExpressVPN. Don't let others track what you do, keep yourself safe at Express VPN. Keep yourself safe by using ExpressVPN to protect yourself from Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Super Tuesday. Protect yourself, your family, and your money by becoming a member of Express VPN today! Protect your hard earned savings by becoming an Express VPN Member! Don t let others, including the White House, China, and Europe, keep you safe. Use the promo code: "ELISSA" to receive $10 and contribute $10 to one of his campaigns. You can get 10% off his entire presidential campaign if you become an ExpressVPN Member. If you don't already have a membership, you can get 20% off your first month with the discount code: VIPREALMONEY. It doesn't get any easier than that! You'll get 7% off the first month, and you'll get an ad-free version of the show for the rest of the month, plus an additional 3 months for free when you upgrade to VIP membership when you become a patron! Subscribe to the show and get access to the VIP membership offer, unlimited access to all special offers, and a FREE 7-day early access to our VIP membership! and early Bird pricing, plus a FREE VIP discount when you sign up to VIP VIP access to VIPREALS. and get a 2-only 3-week VIP membership starting at $99/month! Get the VIP discount! Subscribe, rate, and get an additional $50/month and get 7 days early in the offer starts next week! Learn more about VIP membership, and receive an additional discount when the offer gets rolling in January 2020. Subscribe and get my FREE VIP membership only, plus 7 days of VIP access! I'm giving you access to my VIP discount, and I'll be able to access all my VIP membership and VIP pricing and a discount of $100/month, plus I'll get a FREE PRICING! FREE FASTREALERPRICING when you shop with VIP access and get 5-day to VIP access when I'm able to purchase a VIP membership? FREE Mentioned in this offer begins! Want to sponsor the show?
00:00:23.000By the way, you may have noticed that everybody is panicked about coronavirus.
00:00:26.000I mean, the stock market dropped 4,000 points last week, lost over 10% of its value, which counts as a stock market correction.
00:00:32.000At that point, you may have been thinking, oh, I really should have listened to Ben and diversified into precious metals.
00:00:36.000That is correct, you should have, because the fact is that with volatility as high as it is, with the possibility of black swan events like coronavirus, with uncertainty coming from places like China and from Europe, policies that you can't control, why would you not be diversified at least a little bit into precious metals?
00:00:50.000Again, the stock market dropped so much last week.
00:00:52.000And gold rose concomitantly because that is the way the stock market works.
00:00:56.000When there's uncertainty, it is good to be invested in something hard, a precious asset, like precious metals.
00:01:00.000And Birch Gold Group can make that happen for you right now.
00:01:59.000Well, because we finally have a competition.
00:02:01.000According to FiveThirtyEight, there is now a two-thirds chance of an open convention in the Democratic Party, which is a nightmare scenario for the Democrats.
00:02:09.000Because right now, the way that FiveThirtyEight has this thing gamed out, according to their latest poll statistics and their latest metrics, They believe that Sanders will go in to the convention, the Democratic convention, with a slight plurality of delegates.
00:02:24.000When I say slight, I mean super duper slight.
00:02:26.000When you look at the way they are gaming this out, they say in the remaining 10,000 simulations, they run tons of simulations, then they sort of average the simulations.
00:02:34.000They're suggesting that Bernie Sanders would end up with around 1,600 delegates.
00:02:38.000You need 2,000 to clinch the nomination.
00:02:40.000He'd end up with about 1,600 delegates.
00:02:41.000Joe Biden would end up with about 1,450.
00:02:44.000Michael Bloomberg could end up with about 600 delegates, and Elizabeth Warren would end up with about 239 delegates, which means that Bloomberg and Biden combined would be just about like right at 2,000 delegates, and Sanders and Warren combined would be at like 1,900 delegates.
00:03:02.000Because presumably Warren throws her support to Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg throws his support to Joe Biden on the second ballot.
00:03:08.000And then you have the moderate ticket that overcomes the Bernie ticket.
00:03:11.000But the problem is that the Bernie ticket then walks out and most of his voters don't go and vote for Joe Biden because they don't like Joe Biden.
00:03:17.000So it's a real disaster area inside the Democratic Party.
00:03:19.000Things got a lot more complicated with Joe Biden winning big in South Carolina over the weekend.
00:03:26.000One, Black audience is not resonating to Bernie Sanders, right?
00:03:30.000But Bernie does real well in very white states.
00:03:32.000He did very well in Iowa, did very well in New Hampshire.
00:03:34.000There's a lot of talk about how he did well with Latino audiences, but Latino audiences are not quite as polarized among Democratic candidates as Black audiences are, obviously, because Joe Biden ran away, just skunked Bernie.
00:03:45.000And a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Black electorate in places like South Carolina is a church-going electorate, and Bernie is overtly Non-religious, not only overtly non-religious, anti-religious in many cases.
00:03:57.000It's not just that he talks about how he's Jewish because that really has no impact.
00:04:00.000He is not Jewish in any real sense other than the ethnic.
00:04:03.000He's certainly not religiously Jewish.
00:04:05.000Like, there's nothing about him that's Jewish other than the fact that he was born into a Jewish family.
00:04:09.000Which makes him technically, ethnically Jewish.
00:04:11.000But that's not going to play extraordinarily well in church-going states.
00:04:15.000His sort of overt atheism and socialism, those are not going to play great in states like South Carolina, where Joe Biden is seen as more of a consensus pick.
00:04:23.000Joe Biden was resonating in South Carolina, and he blew out, I mean, blew out Bernie Sanders.
00:04:29.000The fact of the matter is this was meant to be, it was thought that this was going to be a close race.
00:04:32.000The conventional wisdom, which I had largely bought into prior to the kind of late breaking polls last week, is that Joe Biden had collapsed in the first three states.
00:04:39.000You can't lose the first three states this way and then have a massive comeback victory.
00:04:43.000The problem is that the electorate is so different in South Carolina demographically than the electorate is in any of the first three states that apparently you can.
00:04:50.000Apparently you can have something like a South Carolina firewall.
00:04:53.000And so Joe Biden, for the first time, actually demonstrates that a firewall works.
00:05:52.000This is the first Democratic primary he's ever won, and he won going away.
00:05:55.000By the way, if Barack Obama were to sound even a mild note of endorsement of Bernie, of Biden at this point, which is what he should do, because basically this race is now down to Biden and Bernie.
00:06:06.000Bloomberg does not have a path to the nomination.
00:06:08.000There's no way that Bloomberg ends up with either a plurality of the delegates or that Bloomberg ends up with a majority of the delegates.
00:06:21.000He doesn't even have to overtly endorse him.
00:06:23.000Just say some kind words right before Super Tuesday.
00:06:24.000It would make a big difference because one of the things that made a huge difference, apparently, was Jim Clyburn in South Carolina getting behind Joe Biden.
00:06:30.000Apparently, 25 percent by exit polls of the people who voted in that primary said that Jim Clyburn's endorsement of Joe Biden made a big difference.
00:06:37.000There's a reason that Joe Biden is also going around seeking endorsements of major political figures in states like Virginia.
00:06:43.000He got the endorsement from Senator Tim Kaine and the endorsement from former Governor Terry McAuliffe in Virginia over the weekend as well.
00:06:49.000So he's hoping to run up the scores in the various southern states where there's a heavy black population.
00:06:53.000Because again, there is this massive demographic gap in the Democratic Party between upper class white liberals and young white liberals who apparently really like Bernie Sanders and everybody else who really likes Joe Biden.
00:07:05.000So Biden, at his rally on Saturday night, very excited.
00:07:07.000He says, Democrats want a Democratic nominee.
00:07:09.000We don't want a socialist, we want a Democratic nominee.
00:07:11.000Democrats want to nominate someone who will build on Obamacare, not scrap it.
00:07:16.000Take on the NRA and gun manufacturers, not protect them.
00:07:23.000Stand up and give the poor a fighting chance for the middle class to get restored, not raise their taxes and keep the promises we make.
00:07:40.000If Biden comes away from Super Tuesday, anywhere within remote distance of Bernie, he ends up with a plurality of the delegates.
00:07:47.000So tomorrow matters an awful lot because once this is down to a two man race, let's say Bloomberg underperforms.
00:07:52.000So what's what's weird about the way that the Democratic primaries work for folks who don't understand the process, the Republican primaries, if you win a plurality of the votes in a state, you win the entirety of the delegates.
00:08:02.000This is how Donald Trump never won more than 50% in a state through the vast majority of the primaries, but ended up with the majority of the delegates because he was winning 30, 35%, but it was enough to win.
00:08:12.000And because it was enough to win, he won all the delegates, right?
00:08:14.000So he ends up with the majority of the delegates at the convention.
00:10:00.000Now, as you will see, there's still a bit of a delusion to Biden, right, that he's running a strong campaign or that he's going to lock this thing up before the before the end of the primary season, or that he even knows what he's talking about.
00:10:11.000There are serious problems with the Biden campaign, namely Joe Biden.
00:10:21.000Elizabeth Warren, hanging around for no reason just like John Kasich in 2016 for some odd reason she thinks that she's going to be the nominee for no one understands why.
00:10:29.000We're going to get to that in just one second.
00:10:30.000First, let's talk about the Second Amendment.
00:10:32.000So the reality is that as we live in a country with an ever-growing government, As we live in a country where it seems like a lot of the members of the population want to disarm other members of the population, the Second Amendment becomes ever more valuable because the Second Amendment is the great protector of all of the other rights in the Constitution.
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00:11:01.000That's because BCM believes the same level of protection should be provided to every American, regardless whether they're a private citizen or a professional.
00:11:08.000The people at BCM assume, when a rifle leaves their shop, it will be used in a life-or-death situation by a responsible citizen, law enforcement officer, or a soldier overseas, so every component of a BCM rifle is hand-assembled and tested to a life-saving standard.
00:11:20.000The people at BCM feel it's their moral responsibility as Americans to provide tools that will not fail when it is not just a paper target.
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00:11:39.000I own firearms to protect my rights and to protect my family.
00:11:42.000You should too if you're a responsible citizen.
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00:11:49.000You can discover more about their products, special offers, upcoming news.
00:12:22.000He basically has no shot of winning this thing before the convention.
00:12:25.000According to FiveThirtyEight, his shot of winning a majority of delegates before the convention is like one in seven.
00:12:30.000Bernie Sanders, by the way, down to one in five.
00:12:32.000As FiveThirtyEight estimates, two-thirds chance that it's an open convention, which is, again, a disaster area for Democrats.
00:12:38.000Can you imagine how mad the Bernie bros will be if Bernie walks in with a plurality of the delegates, like a hundred more delegates than Joe Biden, and Biden walks away with the nomination?
00:12:46.000Can you imagine the insanity that's going to break out in the Democratic Party halls?
00:12:50.000Can you imagine how bad it'll be, conversely, if they hand it to Bernie and Biden and Bloomberg have a combined 200 more delegates than Bernie and Warren?
00:12:57.000Can you imagine how the moderate wing is going to react to all of that?
00:13:00.000I mean that the chaos inside the convention is going to be madness.
00:13:02.000Here is Joe Biden trying to whistle through the graveyard saying he can win before the convention.
00:13:08.000Do you think you can win this primary before the convention?
00:13:12.000Or do you think it's inevitable though that you and Sanders may have to work this out at the convention?
00:13:18.000I think I could win it before the convention.
00:13:20.000But again, I'm not... Look, all I know is I think we're moving into constituencies that are constituencies, when they hear me, they've always been mine.
00:14:05.000I mean, if Barack Obama came out tomorrow and endorsed him, Biden would win the nomination and he'd win it walking away.
00:14:09.000But Obama's not getting involved, which is truly an amazing spectacle that Obama, who hates Sanders and thinks that Sanders is a toolbag, because he is, and who supposedly likes Joe Biden, won't come out at this point in a highly contested primary season and just say, I like Joe.
00:14:48.000Remember, George, the first thing everybody said when I announced, the opposition, the Democratic opposition, said, well, Biden feels entitled because he's vice president.
00:14:57.000Imagine had the president endorsed me.
00:14:58.000It would have been, well, Biden's entitled because he thinks he's entitled because The bottom line is that the only reason that anybody takes Joe Biden remotely seriously is because Barack Obama was the president and Joe Biden was his vice president.
00:15:11.000Joe Biden's run for president twice before and not received a single electoral vote.
00:15:18.000Meanwhile, again, the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the fact that he is Joe Biden, right?
00:15:21.000The biggest upside to Joe Biden for Democrats is that he has the patina, the sort of shine of Barack Obama on him, the halo of Barack Obama on him.
00:15:32.000If he were not that, he would be nothing because this is a guy who bumbles and fumbles and he's terrible, right?
00:15:35.000Here was Joe Biden yesterday confusing Ebola with coronavirus.
00:15:39.000What the hell is he even talking about?
00:15:41.000I mean, there's just not a lot going on in that head.
00:15:43.000Meanwhile, the field is consolidating.
00:16:02.000Pete Buttigieg was the most talented politician in this field.
00:16:05.000He also was the guy who was smart enough to get out now because he recognized that if you were to stay in and complicate this, if you were to split votes, if you were to take away a few delegates from Joe Biden and then be blamed for Bernie Sanders's rise, then it would be very bad for him.
00:16:21.000Now, here's the problem for Buttigieg.
00:16:22.000People keep saying he'll be able to run for president again and it'll all be fine.
00:16:24.000No, this is pretty much it for Buttigieg, because unless he is appointed to some sort of role inside a Democratic administration, he has no pathway to glory.
00:16:40.000When he ran statewide, he lost by 20 points.
00:16:42.000So the problem for Pete Buttigieg is that Buttigieg really had no upward trajectory inside his own state, which is why he ran as mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
00:16:48.000What's he just going to stay mayor of South Bend, Indiana and then run for president again?
00:16:52.000So, Buttigieg obviously made a lot of waves because he's gay.
00:16:54.000I mean, again, let's be real about this.
00:16:57.000If he were a straight man, he certainly wouldn't have made the sort of national waves that he did.
00:17:04.000I mean, Pete Buttigieg is the guy who is also lecturing Americans about how they were bad Christians if they didn't agree with his take on abortion and same-sex marriage, which is patently crazy.
00:17:19.000Not unless he's appointed to Secretary of Defense.
00:17:22.000Otherwise, Pete Buttigieg's day in the sunshine is over, yes, at age 38.
00:17:27.000Because, again, he has no upward trajectory inside of his states.
00:17:29.000Unless he carpetbags it or unless he's appointed inside a Democratic administration, it's over for him.
00:17:33.000But he understands that his smart role is to get out again.
00:17:35.000Again, the smartest politician in the race was Buttigieg.
00:17:38.000He made the smartest move now, which is get out right now.
00:17:40.000Don't wait until things get complicated.
00:17:42.000Meanwhile, the dummy Elizabeth Warren is staying in to complicate things for Bernie Sanders, which is kind of fascinating.
00:17:47.000So, Buttigieg is being treated with all sorts of plaudits this morning, despite the fact that he really is insufferable on a wide variety of levels.
00:17:55.000Yesterday, he announced that he was dropping out because he has to help the new Democratic nominee speaking from South Bend.
00:18:01.000I recognize that at this point in the race, the best way to keep faith with those goals and ideals is to step aside and help bring our party and our country together.
00:18:11.000So tonight, I am making the difficult decision to suspend my campaign for the presidency.
00:18:18.000I will no longer seek to be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, but I will do everything in my power to ensure that we have a new Democratic president come January.
00:18:29.000He and Biden are trading voicemails, by the way.
00:18:31.000So there's a significant possibility that after Super Tuesday, you could see people if it's competitive, you could see people jump into the Biden camp and and you could see Biden.
00:18:40.000Presumably, you know, give Buttigieg exactly what he needs, which is some sort of cabinet appointment.
00:18:45.000That's the only thing that Buttigieg has in terms of a political future is some sort of cabinet appointment.
00:18:50.000And so him trading that to Biden in favor of whatever level of support Buttigieg has nationally, which is not great, but is something.
00:18:56.000That would be the smart move by Buttigieg, which presumably is why he was not trading phone calls with Bernie Sanders.
00:19:01.000Meanwhile, Tom Steyer has also announced that he is out, the billionaire who spent like $200 million on this campaign to win two delegates or something.
00:19:10.000This guy spent something like $3,300 per vote in South Carolina.
00:20:04.000He was expected by 538 to win about 50 delegates over the course of the Super Tuesday contest.
00:20:10.000He will win some delegates anyway because there's all this early voting and early vote.
00:20:13.000This just shows you why early voting is stupid.
00:20:15.000Some 300,000 people have already cast ballots in California, and many of them have cast ballots for people who are not even on the ballot anymore, right?
00:20:26.000But let's assume that most of Buttigieg's delegates move over to Biden.
00:20:30.000Well, that means that according to FiveThirtyEight, looking at the numbers that they are putting forth, This is the average number of delegates each Democratic presidential candidate is forecasted to receive from each Super Tuesday contest.
00:20:40.000According to their 5.38 primary forecast, this would be as of 11.30 a.m.
00:20:46.000They were suggesting that Sanders would walk away with about 540 delegates from Super Tuesday, that Biden would walk away with about 395, that Bloomberg would walk away without 194, and that Buttigieg would walk away with 50 and Warren with 133.
00:20:58.000Well, Bloomberg and Buttigieg, it really depends on whether you think that Bloomberg's numbers are actually real.
00:21:05.000And I have serious doubts that Bloomberg's numbers are real.
00:21:07.000I think that Bloomberg is going to perform, once he's on the ballot, almost exactly like Tom Steyer did.
00:21:12.000Tom Steyer was running 15 to 20 percent in South Carolina.
00:21:14.000Once he was actually on the ballot in South Carolina and people were forced to choose and they recognized that Steyer was not a viable candidate, Then they just didn't vote for him and got 11% of the vote and most of that went to other candidates.
00:21:25.000I think you're going to see the same thing happen with Michael Bloomberg, who is fully delusional at this point.
00:21:29.000Bloomberg is just walking around as though he has a shot at the nomination.
00:21:33.000His narrow path was that Biden completely collapsed in South Carolina, that Bernie won or came close to winning, and that then he could call on Joe Biden to drop out.
00:21:42.000Because it's true that if you want to win a majority of the delegates, there has to be a consolidation behind one candidate.
00:21:46.000The problem right now is that Biden just showed signs of life.
00:21:49.000And not just showed signs of life, he showed serious life in South Carolina.
00:21:53.000Well, that means that Bloomberg and Biden are now splitting the lane.
00:21:56.000And so, assume for a second that Bloomberg were not in the race.
00:21:59.000Presumably, those 195 delegates somewhere in that neighborhood, none of those people are going to go to Bernie.
00:22:04.000Presumably, nearly all of those people would have gone to Joe Biden.
00:22:07.000Well, if those delegates had moved over to Joe Biden, guess who your new delegate leader would have been?
00:22:13.000So I think that a lot of what happens on Super Tuesday is dependent on where Bloomberg stands in a lot of the southern states.
00:22:19.000Because remember, if Bloomberg wins below 15% in those states, those delegates don't go to Bloomberg.
00:22:25.000Instead, a lot of those delegates kick up to the front runner, Joe Biden.
00:22:29.000So I think that Biden is actually going to outperform on Super Tuesday.
00:22:32.000This is my this is my My edgy prediction.
00:22:35.000I think that Biden is going to overperform on Super Tuesday.
00:22:37.000I think that South Carolina shows people he's viable.
00:22:40.000I think he's going to get a lot of endorsements today and early tomorrow.
00:22:43.000I think that in Southern states, he's absolutely going to clean up.
00:22:46.000I think in California, he's going, I think he's going to surpass the delegate margin in California necessary to gain some delegates.
00:22:52.000I think that the Race is going to be pretty close coming out of Super Tuesday.
00:22:56.000I do not think this is a Bernie Sanders walkover come Super Tuesday.
00:23:02.000So, in just one second, I'm going to get to some of the actual polling from the various Super Tuesday states, because the polling is pretty sporadic in a lot of these states, but we're going to explain which states are up and how many delegates they have and who is likely to win those states.
00:23:14.000We're going to get to all of that in just one second.
00:23:15.000First, it's hard to plan for the future, man.
00:23:19.000It is particularly hard to plan for your own death, because who the hell knows, right?
00:23:21.000I mean, that's something that we all worry about, we all stay up nights worrying about, but one thing is certain.
00:23:26.000You should make sure that your family is taken care of in case, God forbid, something happens to you.
00:23:30.000And this is why you ought to have life insurance.
00:23:31.000If you're a responsible adult, your family needs a stream of income if, God forbid, something happens to you, this is why you should go over to Policy Genius right now and go get life insurance.
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00:23:51.000It's very important to get life insurance.
00:23:52.000That doesn't mean it needs to be difficult to get.
00:23:54.000You don't have to do this through word of mouth and get a bad deal just because a friend told you about a life insurance policy from their friend.
00:24:00.000Instead, why don't you competitively shop the same way you would for any decent product.
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00:24:12.000If life doesn't play out the way that you expected, well, the least you can do is get the insurance to make sure that your family is taken care of.
00:24:28.000And you can play with these numbers yourself.
00:24:30.000One of the fun things to do, if you are very bored at work today, is you can go, there are a bunch of delegate counters, calculators, and you can go in and you can sort of estimate what percentage of the vote you think various candidates are going to win in a lot of these states.
00:24:43.000Okay, so the big prize on Super Tuesday is, of course, California.
00:24:46.000The problem is that the polls don't close until 8 p.m.
00:24:48.000Pacific time, and we're not even going to see results in California until very late.
00:25:00.000So that means that if Biden shows a lot of momentum in the other states, then he could get a lot of big headlines out of Super Tuesday night.
00:25:07.000Because again, the biggest prize on the map is Bernie.
00:25:11.000For Bernie is California, and California is going to show up really late, like 11 p.m.
00:26:06.000Also, there were no exit polls in 2016.
00:26:08.000Black voters in 2008 in California were only 7% of the electorate, but the California Democratic Party is estimating the black Black Americans make up about 16% of the party in the state of California.
00:26:19.000So maybe they show up in heavy numbers.
00:26:21.000So what do the polls say about California?
00:26:23.000Well, the most recent poll is a poll from Emerson, and it does show Joe Biden surpassing that 15% delegate threshold, which is a big deal for Joe Biden.
00:26:31.000It's not about Biden winning California.
00:26:33.000It is about Biden showing up above the 15% delegate threshold because were he to show up above that 15% delegate threshold, Well, then he would win enough delegates to make some serious trouble for Bernie.
00:26:44.000Bernie needs to run away with California.
00:26:46.000He needs to win 300 delegates in California.
00:26:48.000And if there are three candidates who are above the delegate threshold, and right now that is where Warren is polling, she's also above the delegate threshold in a lot of these states, well, that is a problem for Bernie.
00:26:56.000There's a CBS YouGov poll that came out just before the South Carolina primaries, and that one only showed Sanders up 31-19 over Biden, and with Warren at 18.
00:27:06.000So, by the way, Bloomberg was getting 12, and Buttigieg was getting 7 to 9% of the vote in all of these polls, right?
00:27:12.000So, Buttigieg was getting 7, and that 7 kicks over to Biden.
00:27:15.000Suddenly, Biden is looking a lot more viable in states like California.
00:27:19.000So, that is where things stand in California.
00:27:21.000Bloomberg is running below 15%, but he is still pulling somewhere between 11 and 15%.
00:27:25.000How many moderate Democrats in California now look at Bloomberg and they go, okay, that guy can't win the nomination, but you know who can?
00:28:44.000But I have a feeling that South Carolina, the media coverage, the fact that Biden's going to get a lot of big endorsements over the next 48 hours, I think that means that you're going to see Bloomberg start to collapse.
00:28:53.000Because again, the reason that Bloomberg was almost a placeholder, when people are polled about Bloomberg, It's a placeholder for Biden.
00:29:00.000It was people saying, okay, well, it was more referendum on Biden than it was on Bloomberg.
00:29:03.000So if people thought that Biden was gonna collapse, they said, I'm gonna vote for Bloomberg.
00:29:06.000If they think that Biden is going to not collapse, then they say, I'm gonna vote for Biden.
00:29:09.000So all of these polls are not taking into account South Carolina.
00:29:13.000And the ones that are taking into account South Carolina are showing a significant bump for Joe Biden, right?
00:29:18.000That Emerson poll, the ones that came out, they were done on Saturday and then through Sunday.
00:29:23.000Those polls are showing Biden significantly outperforming the other polls.
00:29:26.000And that's not taking into account his South Carolina victory, except for one day of the poll.
00:30:18.000Okay, the polling in North Carolina right now shows Biden up only four points on Sanders, according to East Carolina U. That came out before the South Carolina results.
00:30:26.000That's before the South Carolina results.
00:30:27.000Remember, in the polling averages, For South Carolina, Biden was only winning about 35-40% of the vote.
00:30:33.000He showed 48% of the vote in South Carolina.
00:31:59.000Okay, that probably is true because Bernie does not do particularly well.
00:32:03.000There are not a lot of good polls out of Virginia.
00:32:05.000The Virginia polling is very weak right now.
00:32:08.000All we know in Virginia is that the Democrat, let's see, the latest Democrat polls from Virginia had Sanders and Bloomberg and Biden basically within spitting distance of one another.
00:32:20.000That was conducted before Bloomberg's first debate in Las Vegas and before Joe Biden won South Carolina.
00:32:24.000So I think that you're going to, Hillary Clinton won two thirds of white women in Virginia and she ran all over Bernie in Virginia.
00:32:32.000So I think that Biden is going to, I think if you had to ballpark this thing, assume that Biden is going to perform very much like Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
00:32:40.000Count Super Tuesday, she ran up a delegate lead in 2016.
00:32:43.000I think that Biden is going to underperform Hillary in places like California and New York and Massachusetts, but I think that he is going to perform almost exactly like Hillary in a lot of these southern states.
00:33:25.000Bottom line is that it is a mess right now, but that mess is not necessarily cutting in Bernie's favor.
00:33:33.000So all the talk last week was that Bernie was going to run away with this thing in very short order.
00:33:38.000I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that that's going to happen.
00:33:40.000I think that this is, I think Biden's going to overperform.
00:33:42.000I think that Bernie's going to perform exactly like he thought.
00:33:44.000I think Bloomberg is going to be the real story.
00:33:46.000I think Bloomberg is going to collapse.
00:33:47.000I think contact between voters and Bloomberg is toxic for Bloomberg.
00:33:51.000By the way, I'm not mentioning Tennessee, where I think Biden's really going to run up the score.
00:33:55.000I'm not mentioning Alabama, where I think Biden's really going to run up the score.
00:33:58.000Oklahoma, where I think Biden is going to run up the score.
00:34:01.000Arkansas, where he's going to run up the score.
00:34:04.000Utah, I think that you're going to see Sanders win.
00:34:08.000Maine, you're going to see Sanders win.
00:34:09.000Vermont, you're going to see Sanders win.
00:34:11.000But it is not implausible to believe that Joe Biden walks away from Super Tuesday if he doesn't have a delegate lead because of California.
00:34:18.000At the very least, he is very, very close after Super Tuesday.
00:34:21.000And then we move on to a bunch of states that are very, very conducive for the current Former Democratic Vice President, right?
00:34:29.000We move into the rest of the primary calendar looks a lot better for Joe Biden than it does for Bernie Sanders.
00:34:36.000I'm looking at the presidential election calendar right now.
00:34:39.000So here's how it goes after Super Tuesday.
00:34:40.000March 10th, you get Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Washington.
00:34:54.000Mississippi and Missouri, very, very good for Joe Biden.
00:34:57.000And then you move on to March 17th, Arizona, which could be good for Bernie, but Florida, which is awful for Bernie, Ohio, which is probably not great for Bernie, and Illinois, which is probably not great for Bernie, because Chicago's in Illinois, right?
00:35:10.000So the fact is that this race starts as the time goes on, and as Joe Biden remains competitive, this race starts to tilt slowly toward Joe Biden and away from Bernie Sanders.
00:35:22.000So there's a reason 538's got the open convention possibility at a 65%.
00:35:28.000And by the way, in terms of their majority of delegates, they're showing Bernie at just a 21% to get it, and a 14% for Joe Biden.
00:35:36.000So basically, they're running pretty close to even.
00:35:38.000In their average number of delegates, they expect to be one.
00:35:46.000They're expecting Bloomberg to win 591.
00:35:47.000I think that's an overestimate of Bloomberg.
00:35:49.000I think Bloomberg is gonna fall apart.
00:35:51.000I think Bloomberg and I think the ads that Bloomberg is taking out are largely going to be directed not against Joe Biden.
00:35:57.000They're going to be directed against Bernie Sanders.
00:35:59.000So I would suspect that at least 200 of the delegates that are being allocated to Bloomberg right now are instead going to cut up to Joe Biden.
00:36:06.000Quite plausible that Biden is your leader in the clubhouse, that he wins a plurality of delegates.
00:36:10.000That is the best-case scenario for the Democrats, by the way.
00:36:13.000The best-case scenario for the Democrats is that Biden has a plurality of the delegates going into the convention.
00:36:34.000He barely beat Pete Buttigieg in New Hampshire, and Pete Buttigieg is out of the race.
00:36:38.000Now that you have an actual Democratic candidate in Joe Biden, who has actual minority support and older voter support, I'm not— I said two weeks ago, I thought that Bernie was unstoppable.
00:36:51.000South Carolina made an awful lot of difference.
00:36:53.000And tomorrow night, we are going to find out just how much of a difference all of that made.
00:36:57.000Okay, in just a second, we're going to get to Bernie Sanders, who seems to be already sort of doing the whiny routine, which is kind of interesting.
00:37:32.000In reality, we would then be bankrupt.
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00:39:24.000And his people are basically now in full-on wine mode because they think that everybody is biased against Bernie.
00:39:31.000Well, maybe people just don't like Bernie outside of sort of the core Bernie bros, because number one, the Bernie bros are kind of jerks, and second, Bernie's a nut.
00:39:41.000So, Bernie Sanders, one of his advisors is a guy named Mo Rocha, and he came out yesterday, he said, it's not just MSNBC biased against us, everyone is biased against us.
00:39:50.000Okay, guys, it's not called a bias against you when people finally start asking basic, basic questions about how garbage your candidate is.
00:39:58.000It was bias for years when they didn't ask those questions.
00:40:01.000Here was Chuck Rocha, the Bernie 2020 senior advisor on CNN, complaining that everybody's mean to Bernie.
00:40:22.000And if you're watching certain networks, you would think we've been behind in every one because we get very little coverage.
00:40:28.000I just want to make sure that the American people are finding out all they can find out about our movement, about our people, because the people in the movement and raising $50 million, $60 million from all these people are news.
00:40:38.000And we should be talking about changing democracy in the way we fund campaigns.
00:40:41.000OK, so first of all, I'm pretty sure everybody was talking about Bernie, and that was his big problem.
00:40:45.000He had the same problem that Bloomberg had, which was that he was unexamined, then he was examined, and people were like, ah, don't really like this very much.
00:40:52.000Bernie continues to be a radical idiot.
00:40:55.000Over the weekend, he was interviewed and again ripped into AIPAC because he's a very proud you guys.
00:41:00.000I mean, I'm so sick of hearing about how proud a Jew the guy is when he repeats basic anti-Semitic nostrums.
00:41:06.000And it's like, okay, because he was born into a Jewish family, even though he hangs out with blatant anti-Semites all the time.
00:41:11.000Like if this came out of Rashida Tlaib or Ilhan Omar's mouth, we'd all recognize exactly what it is.
00:41:15.000But because Bernie is saying it, we have to pretend it isn't what it is.
00:41:38.000I will do everything I can to protect the independence and the security and the freedom of the Israeli people.
00:41:44.000But what we need in this country is a foreign policy that not only protects Israel, but deals with the suffering of the Palestinian people as well.
00:41:55.000Second of all, when he's out there ranting about the pro-Israel lobby and how powerful it is, really, because Nancy Pelosi refused to even condemn Rashid Tlaib and Ilhan Omar and puts them on covers of magazines.
00:42:05.000By the way, I never hear about how powerful the pro-Italy lobby is or the pro-Britain lobby is in the United States.
00:42:12.000Again, this sort of stuff has been sort of stock in trade of left-wing anti-Semitism for a very long time.
00:42:17.000And the fact that Bernie traffics in it and then claims that he is a proud Jew because he once spent some time on a kibbutz when he was 17 back in 1322 is more than irrelevant to me.
00:42:28.000But bottom line is, the more people see of Bernie, even inside the Democratic Party, the more that they are wary of Bernie as the nominee, as well they should be.
00:42:35.000Okay, meanwhile, President Trump is having trouble with the economy.
00:42:39.000Obviously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to have stabilized a little bit today.
00:42:58.000The fact that there are production delays, the less information that's out there, the more people are scared.
00:43:02.000The more people are scared, the more they sell and the more they invest in bonds.
00:43:05.000So all of the talk about how millions of people will die due to coronavirus, the fact that the economic supply chains were disrupted, all of that was being priced into the stock market.
00:43:13.000Now it seems like the stock market is finding a bottom.
00:43:16.000And when I mean that it's finding a bottom, it's kind of sort of a stable Is coronavirus a real crisis at this point?
00:43:38.000The reason that I say probably not is because we now have some more information about exactly what coronavirus is, what it does and what the risk factors are The New York Times has quite a good piece about this, talking about sort of the facts on coronavirus by Denise Grady, comparing it with the flu.
00:43:52.000They say coronavirus is deadlier than the flu so far.
00:43:55.000On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1% of people who become infected.
00:44:00.000The 1918 Spanish flu had about a 2% fatality rate, and it was extremely contagious.
00:44:05.000Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from Wuhan had been around 2%, but there was a new report on 1,100 cases from many parts of China published on Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine, and it finds a 1.4% coronavirus death rate.
00:44:17.000And, as the New York Times points out, the coronavirus death rate may be even lower if, as most experts suspect, there are mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected.
00:44:25.000Also, China's been lying about this thing for months.
00:44:28.000So the bad news is that it may be incredibly transmissible.
00:44:31.000The good news is that if it's incredibly transmissible and not all that many people are dying, then your death rate goes down.
00:44:36.000So as the denominator goes up, meaning the number of people infected, and the numerator stays stable, meaning the number of people who die, the death rate goes down.
00:44:44.000The true death rate, according to the New York Times, could be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, well below 1%.
00:44:49.000That's according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, as well as Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Center for Disease Control.
00:45:01.000Even MSNBC's medical experts are saying, average Americans should not be panicked about this thing.
00:45:06.000It is not going to wipe out vast portions of the American population.
00:45:10.000Here is MSNBC's medical expert, I believe his name is Joe Fair, this is clip 19.
00:45:14.000Now with the data we have, and I emphasize the data that we have, just because we haven't rolled out broad testing nationally yet, your average individual American doesn't need to be that concerned right now of catching this virus.
00:45:27.000However, community-based transmission in one state means that there is probably community-based transmission in other states.
00:45:34.000Once we roll out that testing and lower the criteria for being tested for COVID-19, we're probably going to see a lot more cases than we thought were here previously.
00:45:43.000Now again, he's saying there are a lot more cases than we're here, but that means that they've been here for a while and nobody's been noticing them because we don't have vast swaths of the population that have been dying out.
00:45:50.000We have two coronavirus deaths total in the United States.
00:45:53.000Apparently it was going undetected for weeks on end in Washington State.
00:45:57.000Apparently it's already been here for a while and nobody's really noticed it, which doesn't suggest that this is the Black Plague.
00:46:02.000Also, again, because China's been so non-transparent, that means that the figures on coronavirus seem to have been exaggerated.
00:46:07.000So, for example, the New York Times reports each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people on average, but that figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in Wuhan, so everybody was infecting each other.
00:46:17.000And also on that Diamond Princess cruise, Everybody was infecting each other because they were quarantined together, right?
00:46:22.000Which means that everybody is in contact with each other regularly who has the flu.
00:46:26.000The figure for the seasonal flu is about 1.3.
00:46:28.000The reproduction number for the flu of 1918 was about the same as that of the new coronavirus, but that was before modern treatments and vaccines were both available.
00:46:36.000Now, there are no vaccines for this virus yet, but those are being developed as we speak.
00:46:40.000They're figuring within 12 to 18 months, there will be a vaccine for coronavirus that at least lessens the impact of coronavirus.
00:46:48.000And again, they're sort of expecting this to become just another strain of seasonal flu.
00:46:51.000Here is the best news, honestly, about coronavirus, is that coronavirus and flu It mostly affects people who are older than 65.
00:46:57.000So that's obviously not great news, but the fact is that it's not affecting people who are young and healthy.
00:47:02.000The stuff that would be truly scary is if young and healthy people were dying off in vast numbers from the flu.
00:47:06.000Coronavirus seems to be targeting and killing people who are, or at least affecting people disproportionately.
00:47:12.000Who have a secondary illness, people who already have some sort of lung disease, people who already have pneumonia, right?
00:47:17.000It's killing off a lot of people who are in that particular age group, but apparently, it is not actually having a significant impact on children, particularly very young ones, which is, honestly, for me, I have two kids under the age of six.
00:47:29.000That's good news for me, especially because kids constantly have their hands in their mouths, they go to these germ factories where they're called schools, where they're constantly infecting each other.
00:47:37.000Those cases tend to be, Extremely mild.
00:47:40.000So, the Trump administration, correctly, is saying, we're handling this thing, like, please do not incite a panic.
00:47:48.000President Trump came out, he said, listen, we've taken aggressive action against this thing, and any attempt to downplay that aggressive action is just a lie.
00:47:55.000Since the early stages of the foreign outbreak, my administration has taken the most aggressive action in modern history to confront the spread of this disease.
00:48:18.000On January 31st, I imposed travel restrictions on foreign nations who had, and anybody that had been to China, or people coming out of China.
00:48:46.000So there's a great science fiction book recommended to me by producer Nick, who has time to read because we're not apparently Burdening him enough with his work.
00:48:54.000He plays the banjo and he whittles things and he reads science fiction novels, but that means that he sometimes has good picks in terms of his literary references.
00:49:03.000It's a really good time travel novel that fewer people know about now than they probably should.
00:49:09.000Everybody sort of knows the Foundation Trilogy, but The End of Eternity, which I'd never heard of, is really quite terrific.
00:49:13.000It's a really well thought out, well plotted take on, let's say in the future there are a group of people who could come back and change the past and sort of change the past to avoid great pandemics and great nuclear explosions and avoid all of the worst things.
00:49:25.000Would that be a good thing or a bad thing?
00:49:27.000The book is Isaac Asimov's The End of Eternity and worth the read.
00:49:30.000Okay, time for a big thing that I hate.
00:49:36.000Okay, so let's talk about the Democratic response to the coronavirus thing.
00:49:40.000So, the Democratic response to the coronavirus thing has been absolutely insane.
00:49:43.000So, as we see, President Trump has said, listen, we've been handling this thing.
00:49:53.000As well, the media overplaying the risks of coronavirus in an irresponsible way, suggesting that we are on the verge of a great pandemic that's going to kill tens of millions of Americans, that the Trump administration is botching it, is politically driven.
00:50:03.000Here's Trump saying that, and he's correct.
00:50:06.000I'd like to just ask and caution that the media, we would respectfully ask the media and politicians and everybody else involved not do anything to incite a panic because there's no reason to panic at all.
00:50:22.000This is something that is being handled professionally.
00:50:26.000Well, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who's the head of the National Institute of Health, there were accusations last week that because this operation was being run through Mike Pence, the PR operation was being run through the Vice President's office, which is just trying to consolidate information so you don't have vast swaths of misinformation running around, Fauci said, listen, I'm not being muzzled.
00:50:43.000The media tried to claim that he was being muzzled.
00:50:49.000I have never been muzzled, ever, and I've been doing this since the administration of Ronald Reagan.
00:50:54.000I'm not being muzzled by this administration.
00:50:56.000What happened, which was misinterpreted, is that we were set up to go on some shows, and when the vice president took over, we said, Regroup and figure out how we're going to be communicating.
00:51:09.000So I had to just stand down on a couple of shows and resubmit for clearance.
00:51:14.000And when I resubmitted for clearance, I got cleared.
00:51:19.000That was a real misrepresentation of what happened.
00:51:22.000Okay, Fauci served under President Obama as well.
00:51:24.000He served under multiple administrations.
00:51:26.000So he's saying, listen, we're not hiding any information here.
00:51:28.000Alex Azar, the Health and Human Services Secretary, says it's pretty obvious here that people are overreacting and treating this as a massive crisis when it is not.
00:51:35.000It is a crisis for the factory production in China.
00:51:37.000It is not a crisis for the average American.
00:51:39.000You're seeing people who are stocking up on masks.
00:51:41.000By the way, here is the basic rule about masks.
00:51:43.000Masks, medical masks, are designed to prevent people from coughing in your face, for example.
00:51:48.000But the reality is that unless you have a high probability of being coughed on by someone with coronavirus, it's not going to serve you well.
00:51:55.000So you really should be allowing the medical professionals who are going to be treating people who come in with symptoms to have the medical masks at this point.
00:52:01.000You want to handle coronavirus in your own life?
00:52:08.000And again, the symptoms of coronavirus, particularly for people who are young and healthy, are not severe.
00:52:12.000What you're seeing is that it's really bad for like old age homes, nursing homes, that sort of thing.
00:52:16.000Here's Alex Azar saying people are overreacting.
00:52:19.000We are trying to give the American people all the information we have, when we have it, so they don't think there's secret information they're not getting.
00:53:16.000And after three days leading the president's effort on the coronavirus, I'm more confident than ever that we are bringing a whole of government approach.
00:53:26.000The president has directed the full resources of the federal government and talking with governors around the country, particularly in states where we brought people back home.
00:53:35.000So Pence says all of that, and then he says the same thing on Face the Nation with Chuck Todd, or Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.
00:53:42.000And Chuck Todd then proceeds to ask whether he's gaslighting him.
00:53:47.000The attitude of the media and the Democrats, as we'll see, is that the Trump administration, which, again, has not mishandled this.
00:53:52.000There's no evidence they've mishandled this.
00:53:54.000There is no evidence at this point that this thing is going to become a major crisis inside America's borders.
00:53:58.000We have very good public health facilities in the United States.
00:54:04.000The media are proclaiming that this is a crisis.
00:54:05.000Here's Chuck Todd asking if the American people are being gaslit after being informed, right, after the American people are informed by doctors on the left, on the right, on MSNBC, right, by Fauci, who is the guy who's supposedly being muzzled.
00:55:12.000Here are some names of people who have been completely gaslighting the American public about the Trump virus and how this is all Trump's fault.
00:55:21.000So Elizabeth Warren comes out yesterday, she says, I can't think of a worse person in charge of this thing than Mike Pence.
00:55:27.000The worst person you could imagine being in charge of this thing is Mike Pence.
00:55:29.000Here is Elizabeth Warren, desperate for attention with the crazy eyes and everything over on MSNBC.
00:55:34.000Let me just say that the Vice President Pence, he is the wrong person to be leading this.
00:55:41.000He is actually the one guy around who has experience in dealing with a virus that gets out of control, only he's the guy who went in exactly the wrong direction.
00:55:53.000He paid more attention to politics than he did to science, and that really created a health crisis in his state of Indiana.
00:56:02.000I cannot thank Of a worst person to put in charge of dealing with this coronavirus.
00:56:38.000Today we had a very productive meeting of the White House Coronavirus Task Force in the Situation Room.
00:56:42.000We placed additional travel restrictions on Iran, and we are increasing the travel advisory to level four, urging Americans not to travel to specific regions in Italy and South Korea.
00:56:50.000Okay, and it's basically a meeting of the cabinet.
00:56:52.000You can see various members of the cabinet there, including, by the way, Ben Carson, as well as a couple other figures here who are not white people.
00:57:40.000A lot of penises in that room talking about coronavirus.
00:57:43.000Is there a special female access to knowledge with regard to coronavirus?
00:57:48.000Is there a specific person who was barred because of gender from this room?
00:57:51.000Like a lady came in and she was like, oh, well, you know.
00:57:54.000Some woman came in, she's like, I'm the expert, the world expert on coronavirus.
00:57:58.000And suddenly Pence is like, I can't be in a room alone with you because mommy says no, my wife says no, so I'm sorry, we're going to have to deal with coronavirus on our own.
00:58:04.000Like, what the hell is she talking about?
00:58:06.000But Chuck Todd says it's gaslighting to point out that Democrats are doing this routine.
00:58:12.000At the rally, he points out that the Democrats are hoaxing the American people about the Trump administration blowing coronavirus.
00:58:18.000He doesn't say coronavirus itself is a hoax.
00:58:20.000He doesn't say that coronavirus itself is non-threatening.
00:58:23.000He says the Democrats are lying to you about the Trump administration mishandling this thing, and that the Democrats are lying to you that you're going to die from coronavirus and that we're all at tremendous, tremendous risk from coronavirus.
00:58:32.000The data aren't there to support that.
00:58:33.000Here is President Trump saying that, and then we'll see the Democrats lying about this, and then you'll see Chuck Todd lying about the Democrats lying about this.
00:58:41.000Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus.
00:59:05.000Okay, I mean, that's just, so he says, what's the new hoax?
00:59:08.000The new hoax is that Democrats are making this into a big issue, that we blew it, right?
00:59:12.000Okay, and he's right about, so Democrats did that, right?
00:59:14.000Then Biden comes out and he falsely claims that Trump called coronavirus itself a hoax.
00:59:19.000Here's Joe Biden just completely misreading Trump's statements in the dumbest possible way.
00:59:24.000I don't want to talk down the possibility of us being able to do this well, but, you know, the idea that Donald Trump said just several days ago this was a democratic hoax, what in God's name is he talking about?
00:59:36.000What in God's name is he talking about?
01:01:05.000Members of the media, the Democrats, they love Trump because it allows them to turn everything into a story about Trump when the story is not actually about Trump.
01:01:11.000Okay, so don't forget, we want to hear from you.
01:01:13.000Tell us who you think will win the Democratic nomination by texting either Biden, Bernie, Bloomberg, Warren to 83 400.
01:01:18.000On Tuesday night during our Daily Wire backstage, we'll analyze the results live.
01:01:22.000Again, text either Biden, Bernie, Bloomberg, Warren to 83400.
01:01:26.000We will analyze the results on Daily Wire backstage this Tuesday.
01:02:17.000Hey everybody, it's Andrew Klavan, host of The Andrew Klavan Show.
01:02:20.000You know, some people are depressed because the American Republic is collapsing, the end of days is approaching, and the moon has turned to blood.
01:02:27.000But on The Andrew Klavan Show, that's where the fun just gets started.