As the holidays approach, Americans batten down the hatches for a brutal week of coronavirus numbers, doctors and politicians bat around solutions, and President Trump and Joe Biden go at it. Ben Shapiro explains why this is happening, and why it s going to get worse, and what we can do to prepare for the worst possible week of deaths from the virus that has ravaged the United States for months. The show is sponsored by ExpressVPN, a company that helps you surf the web with peace of mind. Sign up right now at ExpressVPN.org/SurfTheWeb with Peace of Mind to join the Surfing the Web with Peaceful Minds Club and become a member for as little as $19.95 a month. You get unlimited access to all of ExpressVPN's premium memberships, including the VIP membership trial, which includes a 20% discount for new memberships and early-bird pricing, as well as a discount for existing memberships for new customers. Subscribe to Surf the Web users only. Learn more about your ad choices. Use the promo code: "UPVpn" at signup.fm/upvpn to receive 20% off your first month, and receive a FREE 7-day VIP membership offer when you become a patron! The average annual rate is $99.99, plus two-and-a-member discount when you upgrade to $99 gets you an ad-free version of the service UpVpn Provenza Pro, Provenero, Provedero Provedoro Pro? Get all the latest in-to-date ad-only version of The FiveThirtyEight Provedora Pro? Get all-of-the-best deal, plus a discount of $99, and a free of the Provenora Provedor Pro and Pro-Pro Plus Plus, plus $5 and a VIP membership, plus an additional $5-day pro-Pro-Provera Pro-vero Pro-Vero Pro, Plus 4-day pricing plan, and I'll get $10,000 Pro-only offer, and they'll get a 7-of course, plus they'll receive $50+ pro-only 4-of the Provedo Pro and a $50-of Pro-of pro-proveror Pro will get $4-of_pro-veror pro-verior pro-choice Pro and an F&C Pro will receive $4/of Proverior Pro & F-Pro Pro and F&G Pro will also get $5,000 PRIVOR PRO?
00:00:00.000As the holidays approach, Americans batten down the hatches for a brutal week of coronavirus numbers, doctors and politicians bat around solutions, and President Trump and Joe Biden go at it.
00:01:09.000The United States is standing, as of yesterday, at 9,679 deaths.
00:01:12.000There were about 1,100 to 1,200 deaths yesterday in the United States from coronavirus.
00:01:19.000There's a little bit of good news, and that is if you look at some of the models that are being used here, They're being revised downward.
00:01:24.000So the model that comes from University of Washington, that's the model, the so-called Murray model that was being used by the White House.
00:01:32.000That model has now been revised up in terms of peak and down in terms of duration, which is overall not a horrible thing, given the fact that they've actually lowered their death estimate fairly tremendously over the last four days.
00:01:44.000Last week, I read to you from the model and they said there were going to be about 94,000 deaths in the United States by August 1st, 2020.
00:01:51.000Now they are suggesting there will be 82,000 COVID-19 deaths by August 4th, 2020.
00:01:56.000Now, what's amazing about that modeling is which factors are changing.
00:02:02.000So it is not that people are staying home more.
00:02:05.000That was already taken into account in the model.
00:02:07.000What it is suggesting is that it's raging like wildfire where it's raging, and then after that, it stops raging.
00:02:13.000And this is the estimate that is being put forward, not by me, but by a scientist over at East Anglia University.
00:02:21.000He's suggesting that people have been underestimating how fast this thing is going to burn, and the good news on that is that you're going to see it burn out more quickly.
00:02:30.000According to the scientist at East Anglia University, which by the way, University of East Anglia in Britain is one of the places that the left loves to cite with regard to climate change models.
00:02:38.000So this is not some fly-by-night organization.
00:02:41.000Many of the models being used to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic give poor predictions of both the epidemic's peak and its duration, according to an academic at the University of East Anglia.
00:02:49.000Comparison of a new approach with a published model of COVID-19 in Wuhan before isolation and social distancing measures were imposed shows that the standard model underestimates the peak infection rate by a factor of three, meaning it will be three times higher and substantially overestimates how long the epidemic will continue after the peak.
00:03:04.000In other words, it rages through the population and then it seems to sort of stop.
00:03:07.000And that is why you are seeing the models change in real time.
00:03:10.000The model that's being used, the Murray model, has been wrong on a wide variety of bases.
00:03:14.000So for example, as of yesterday, So yesterday was what?
00:03:27.000The same day, the estimate that was being put forward by the CDC was somewhere on the order of 40,000 beds.
00:03:32.000So the number of beds estimated was actually significantly lower than the number of beds that actually were needed.
00:03:40.000The number estimated was much higher than the number that were actually needed.
00:03:43.000When it came to ICU beds, as of yesterday, the IMHE study from University of Washington was suggesting that there would be 19,316 beds needed.
00:03:53.000But the number of people who are actually in critical condition, according to the Johns Hopkins statistics, the number of people in critical in the United States is significantly lower than that.
00:04:03.000So you assume that most of the people in critical, virtually all of them presumably, are on intubators, are on the, I'm sorry, ventilators.
00:04:13.000The number of people in critical right now is 8,700.
00:04:15.000So that is an order of two lower than the number of people who are expected to be on ventilators if we are getting complete information.
00:04:22.000So that doesn't suggest that this thing isn't really virulent and really terrible.
00:04:26.000It does suggest that these models are going to be constantly And they need to be constantly updated because the fact is that if they're not constantly updated, then they're getting it wrong.
00:04:36.000That's not a problem with how the models work.
00:04:38.000It is a problem with taking the models at complete face value, which is what I was saying last week as of Friday, that nobody was giving the inputs, nobody was giving the outputs, nobody was giving the amount of time, nobody was explaining whether there was going to be a second wave in the fall.
00:04:50.000If there is going to be a second wave in the fall, how is that going to be prevented?
00:04:53.000If there's going to be a second wave in the fall, maybe the best thing that we can do is just increase the number of ICU beds and ventilators and then put everybody who's over the age of 65 or with a pre-existing health condition under warning and say to them you need to basically stay indoors.
00:05:05.000By the way, By the data, the number of people who are dying are still largely over the age of 65.
00:05:12.000We don't have the average age from the CDC.
00:05:13.000We do know that virtually everybody who's being hospitalized has a pre-existing condition, and nearly everybody who is dying has some sort of pre-existing condition.
00:05:20.000One of the problems is the government has not been forthcoming with the data as to what the average age of people are, what are their actual pre-existing health conditions.
00:05:29.000If I have high blood pressure and I am just on a statin, does that count as a pre-existing health condition?
00:05:35.000If I have sleep apnea, is that a pre-existing health condition?
00:05:37.000What exactly is a pre-existing health condition?
00:05:39.000There are certain pre-existing health conditions that you know are more likely to land you in the hospital.
00:05:43.000If you've got a kidney condition, for example, that is much more likely to land you in the hospital if you have a pre-existing lung condition.
00:05:49.000If you have asthma or if you have lung cancer or something, if you have an immunological problem, that's more likely to land you in the hospital.
00:05:56.000But the government has not been supremely forthcoming with all of this.
00:06:00.000So there's a lot of play in the stats.
00:06:01.000And I want to get back to this, because this really is the point.
00:06:04.000We cannot make plans for the future until we have the stats, until we have the data.
00:06:08.000And this has led to this really interesting philosophical and political impasse, where there are certain people saying, well, the data aren't in, and we are destroying 28 million jobs over the course of three weeks for the sake of data that we don't have.
00:06:22.000And the other side saying, well, yeah, but if an asteroid is headed for Earth, then we have to shut everything down until we have more data.
00:06:28.000Now, the happy medium of those positions is, okay, how about we shut everything down temporarily until we have the data, and then we ramp up the data right now, right?
00:06:36.000And as we will see, this is the solution that is now being proposed by a wide variety of people ranging from Scott Gottlieb over at the FDA to business leaders all around the country, who, by the way, if they're so selfish, why are they so eager to save 40,000 jobs, 100,000 jobs, and 120,000 200,000 jobs at their company.
00:06:51.000The people who are the most active in this sphere in terms of public health and testing are the people running major corporations that employ tens and hundreds of thousands of people.
00:07:00.000Those are the people who are kept up most at night by this because they recognize how many lives are on the line.
00:07:04.000We're gonna get to more of this in just one second.
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00:09:05.000Alrighty, so back to some of the information about the modeling.
00:09:10.000So when it comes to how we model this sort of stuff, there's a few statistics that we absolutely need that we don't actually have right now, and they can only be achieved if we go heavy on the data.
00:09:21.000Right now, our number one priority, other than just increasing ICU beds and ventilators and making sure the people who need the care get the care, should be the randomized testing.
00:09:30.000It should be developing a serology test that can tell us how many people actually have this thing.
00:09:34.000Because that's going to wildly change your strategy.
00:09:36.000What if 50% of the American population already has this thing?
00:09:39.000If 50% of the American population already has this thing, then you kind of just want people to go back to work, because then if they infect a few more people, you get herd immunity.
00:09:48.000If only 10% of the American population has this thing, Maybe that changes your strategy in the other direction.
00:09:53.000Or maybe you look at the infection rates versus the death rates and you say, okay, well, the death rates are actually not that high.
00:09:58.000So we need to protect the most vulnerable and just assume that everybody's going to get it over the course of the year.
00:10:03.000All of these questions cannot be answered absent the data.
00:10:06.000So, as I've discussed before, when it comes to the case fatality rate, when it comes to how many people are dying from this and how communicable it is, we don't know the actual numerator.
00:10:14.000There's an article in the Wall Street Journal today talking specifically about the fact that we actually don't know how many people have died from this thing.
00:10:22.000We still are unclear on exactly how bad this thing could be.
00:10:26.000Actually, the New York Times reports the U.S.
00:10:27.000The U.S. is undercounting the number of people who have died in the pandemic, according to experts.
00:10:32.000Quote, hospital officials, public health experts, medical examiners say official tallies of Americans said to have died in the pandemic do not capture the overall number of virus related deaths, leaving the public with a limited understanding of the outbreaks.
00:10:43.000Limited resources and a patchwork of decision making from one state or county to the next have contributed to the undercount.
00:10:49.000With no uniform system for reporting coronavirus-related deaths in the United States and a continuing shortage of tests, some states and counties have improvised, obfuscated, and at times backtracked in counting the dead.
00:11:00.000Adding to the complications, different jurisdictions are using distinct standards for attributing a death to the coronavirus and, in some cases, relying on techniques that would lower the overall count of fatalities.
00:11:10.000So people are dying, we're not actually testing them after they are dead.
00:11:13.000Also, it's possible that we misidentified some people as having influenza or having pneumonia.
00:11:19.000At the same time, it's possible that we're reclassifying in the other direction.
00:11:22.000People who normally died of the flu, for example, do you classify them if they're 85 and they died after acquiring pneumonia after having the flu?
00:11:29.000Do they die of pneumonia, the flu, or old age?
00:11:32.000How you classify deaths actually makes a fairly large-scale difference in what these numbers look like.
00:11:37.000If somebody is 91 and they pass away from shortness of breath and then afterward they are tested for coronavirus, did they die from coronavirus or did they die of the fact that they were extremely vulnerable to begin with?
00:11:47.000Now normally we wouldn't bother testing those people but right now we are testing so it's possible that we are under counting.
00:11:52.000It's also possible that we are over-counting by comparison with past death rates, meaning that, yeah, people are dying of coronavirus, but we're being very meticulous and overly meticulous maybe in how we count the coronavirus deaths as compared to past countings of deaths.
00:12:08.000So the numerator is in controversy when we talk about how many people have actually died.
00:12:13.000Then you have to worry about the denominator, and that's the one I've been focused on.
00:12:16.000How do we know how many people have been infected?
00:12:18.000You are seeing the case fatality rate, and the case fatality rate is how many people who are diagnosed with having this thing die.
00:12:23.000And right now in the United States, the case fatality rate, as of over the weekend, was something we have like 9,600 people who have died in the United States, and we have, as a total number of infections, total cases, 338,899.
00:12:39.000So just typing this into the computer, what you get is 388,899.
00:12:46.000Basically, the case fatality rate in the United States is somewhere in the order of 2.5%, which sounds super duper high.
00:12:51.000The problem is, a lot of people are asymptomatic.
00:12:53.000A lot of people are not coming into the hospital.
00:12:55.000The people who are coming in for the testing are the people with the most severe symptoms.
00:12:58.000So, what exactly is the case fatality rate?
00:13:12.000So the numerator, how many people dead, is in question.
00:13:14.000The denominator, how many people actually have this thing, is in question.
00:13:18.000And then, we actually don't know how the virus is spread, because you're hearing everything from, if somebody breathes on you, within a 15 mile radius, you're gonna die.
00:13:27.000Or you could be just walking along the street and you slip and your hand touches a pole and suddenly there's coronavirus on your hand, you wipe your mouth and you're dead.
00:13:36.000We just don't know exactly how well this thing is spread.
00:13:39.000Best available data seems to suggest that you're basically okay unless someone coughs directly in your face and you're within six feet.
00:13:45.000Or unless you are wiping your face constantly, if you're taking your hands and putting them on your face constantly.
00:13:50.000So if you hand wash a lot and you don't touch your face, your chances of getting this thing are extraordinarily low.
00:13:54.000Unless someone spits or coughs directly in your face.
00:13:57.000One of the bad cases of an outbreak actually happened at a choir practice in Washington state.
00:14:02.000The reason being at a choir practice, what is everybody doing, right?
00:14:05.000Everybody is projecting, everybody is singing very, very loudly.
00:14:37.000We now have apparently approved and verified antibody tests.
00:14:41.000We could get randomized antibody tests and that would tell you how many people have already had it.
00:14:45.000So if you combine antibody tests with the actual coronavirus test and you did it in a randomized sample size, you can actually tell how far, how fast this thing is spreading, particularly in urban areas.
00:14:58.000And they're saying these antibody tests are pretty good.
00:15:00.000They're saying they're about 95% effective.
00:15:02.000By the way, it's a lot more effective than the actual virus test.
00:15:05.000The actual virus tests apparently have like a 20% false positive rate or a false negative rate, which is really insane.
00:15:10.000You could go in with coronavirus, take a test, they tell you you're all good to go.
00:15:12.000You go home and you infect your entire family.
00:15:15.000So that would tell you exactly, once you have the denominator number, then you can actually tell what are the hospitalization rates versus the overall number.
00:15:24.000And it's based on that number that people are now making projections as to how many ICU beds and ventilators are going to be needed.
00:15:31.000Let's say right now that Andrew Cuomo, Governor Cuomo in New York, He's saying that he needs 30,000 ventilators.
00:15:38.000That he desperately needs 30,000 ventilators.
00:15:40.000And he is calculating that by looking at the case fatality rate, and he's saying that's the entirety of everybody who's been infected.
00:15:46.000So we have 300, let's say that in New York State, we have... I can actually check the statistic really quickly as to how many people have been confirmed to have coronavirus in the state of New York.
00:15:58.000In New York, that number at the moment, according again to the Johns Hopkins modeling and reporting, they say there are about 120,000 cases in New York.
00:16:06.000And they've had a grand total of 4,159 deaths.
00:16:10.000Right, so let's say that, how many people are in New York State?
00:16:13.000What's the total population of New York?
00:16:29.000So you figure 120,000 people have been confirmed to have this thing in a state of 20 million people.
00:16:34.000The case fatality rate right now is approximately 4,100.
00:16:42.000So the case fatality rate in New York City, in New York State right now is about 3.3%.
00:16:47.000So if you figure 3.3% times 20 million, then what you end up with is a need for, you know, tens and tens and tens of thousands of ventilators.
00:17:00.000He figured that everybody who died needed a ventilator, so if that case fatality rate is 20 million times .03, then you are talking about a need for 600,000 beds probably?
00:17:11.000Okay, so he's figuring that not everybody is going to get it.
00:17:13.000Still, If you figured that only the people who are tested were the ones who are going to get it, you're going to end up with this extraordinarily high-end estimate for how many beds and ventilators you need.
00:17:22.000But what if that statistic isn't showing that tons of people in New York have already had this thing?
00:17:27.000Then you could actually lower the number of beds and ventilators that are necessary, and it doesn't look like 30,000.
00:17:31.000Instead, it looks like a lot lower than that, right?
00:17:34.000If you knew that the true number of New Yorkers infected is already 20 times higher than the number of people who they think are infected, Well, that would completely lower the number of ventilators and beds you need.
00:17:43.000So all of this data is super important and the government needs to do it now.
00:17:51.000We need large-scale baseline coronavirus testing and randomized across the country so we actually can do it like polling, right?
00:17:57.000We actually need it in different places in the country so we can tell how fast this thing is spreading.
00:18:01.000And we need to know this stuff yesterday, right?
00:18:05.000And you're starting to see that this call is going out from pretty much everybody.
00:18:09.000Again, Bill Gates has been suggesting that he thinks, actually, that fewer people than the models show are going to die because he thinks that we're being pretty successful at, quote unquote, flattening the curve.
00:18:20.000Here was Bill Gates yesterday saying that, well, we all need to stay home.
00:18:23.000The outbreak, you know, he thinks it'll get worse, but it doesn't mean that the numbers are going to be as bad as we've been led to believe.
00:18:29.000If we continue countrywide, and we're testing the right people to understand what's going on, which is not the case yet, those numbers will start to go down, and then...
00:18:41.000We can look at some degree of opening back up.
00:18:44.000President Trump's top health advisors are talking about somewhere between 100 and 240,000 deaths over the next two months.
00:18:54.000Does that sound about right to you in terms of the lethality and the length of the outbreak here in the U.S.? ?
00:19:04.000Well, if we do the social distancing properly, we should be able to get out of this with a death number well short of that.
00:19:14.000Okay, now Gates has been calling for this 10-week shutdown, but the truth is that Gates isn't the one paying the economic price on that on a personal level.
00:19:20.000I mean, his company, obviously, is just like all major companies are.
00:19:24.000We all want to get out of this thing as fast as possible, I would hope, and that means that you need all of this testing ASAP.
00:19:28.000Okay, we're going to get to some of these methodologies and what this week is supposed to look like.
00:19:32.000We'll get to all of that in just one second.
00:19:34.000Let's talk about the fact that you are sitting at home right now, looking at those walls, and you're thinking, man, I wish I had a little bit nicer artwork.
00:19:40.000Or maybe you're looking to get an amazing gift for your parents, for example.
00:19:43.000Like now would be a great time to show your parents how much you care.
00:21:17.000There is some news out of Italy that it looks like they may have already hit their height.
00:21:22.000The Dow has jumped pretty significantly this morning, thanks to news that people may be looking at different countries coming out of this thing.
00:21:31.000Apparently, the situation in Italy is starting to look a hell of a lot better.
00:21:37.000According to Reuters, Italy reported its lowest daily COVID-19 death toll for more than two weeks on Sunday as authorities began to look ahead to a second phase of the battle against the new coronavirus once the lockdown imposed almost a month ago is eventually eased.
00:21:50.000The toll from the world's deadliest outbreak reached 15,887, which is a quarter of the global death toll, but the rise of 525 from a day earlier was the smallest daily increase since March 19.
00:21:59.000The number of patients in badly stretched intensive care units fell for a second day running.
00:22:04.000Silvio Brusaferro, the head of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità , Italy's top health institute, I'm sure I botched that, says, the curve has reached a plateau and begun to descend.
00:22:14.000It is a result that we have to achieve day after day.
00:22:16.000He says, if this is true, we need to start thinking about a second phase and keep down the spread of the disease.
00:22:22.000So you're starting to see that in Italy.
00:22:24.000You're starting to see that in France, apparently.
00:22:26.000You're starting to see it in Spain as well.
00:22:30.000Meanwhile in Great Britain, in bad news, Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, has been hospitalized.
00:22:34.000Now they say that that is more precautionary than anything else.
00:23:32.000And obviously, everybody's saying prayers for Boris Johnson and for everybody who is suffering under this epidemic.
00:23:39.000Now, in Japan, they are worried about a critical situation.
00:23:43.000They may declare an emergency as early as Tuesday.
00:23:45.000The early news from Japan was they'd held this thing down well.
00:23:48.000But again, a hotspot can rage this thing out of control fairly quickly.
00:23:52.000We'll bring you all the news from New York and from the White House in just one second.
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00:25:41.000Well, Anthony Fauci says the same thing.
00:25:43.000He says this is indeed going to be a very bad weekend.
00:25:46.000And of course, these projections, we'll see how bad the actual death tolls are.
00:25:50.000Do they match up with the projections, right?
00:25:52.000The projection from that University of Washington model that I spoke about before, which says higher peak but lesser duration, they suggest that 10 days away, there will be about over 3,000 Americans will die in one day, according to that data.
00:26:05.000In New York, however, they're suggesting that as early as Thursday, there will be a pinnacle in New York City.
00:26:10.000That's what Andrew Cuomo has suggested.
00:26:12.000He says there will be 878 deaths that day.
00:26:14.000Of course, we'll see how the models hold up in the midst of all of this.
00:26:18.000Here's Anthony Fauci suggesting that this will indeed be a very bad week.
00:26:22.000Well, this is going to be a bad week, Margaret, unfortunately.
00:26:25.000If you look at the projection of the curves, of the kinetics of the curves, we're going to continue to see an escalation.
00:26:32.000Also, we should hope that within a week, or maybe a little bit more, we'll start to see a flattening out of the curve and coming down.
00:26:42.000The mitigation that we're talking about that you just mentioned is absolutely key to the success of that.
00:26:49.000So, on the one hand, things are going to get bad and we need to be prepared for that.
00:27:09.000We will see, you know, how long the duration is or whether the numbers end up looking exactly like that University of Washington model, which by the way, I will say overall, again, has been reduced down from 94,000 dead by August.
00:27:18.000I mean, it's hard to say these are good numbers because they're not.
00:27:21.000But has been reduced down from 94,000 dead expected by the beginning of August to 81,000 dead and that happened just over the course of the weekend.
00:27:28.000Well, it's tragically fitting that we're talking at the beginning of Holy Week, because this is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans' lives, quite frankly.
00:27:37.000This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9-11 moment, only it's not going to be localized.
00:27:42.000It's going to be happening all over the country, and I want America to understand that.
00:27:47.000But I also want them to understand that the public, along with the state and the federal government, have the power to change the trajectory of this epidemic.
00:27:55.000Meanwhile, states are suggesting that they are running low on supplies across the board.
00:27:59.000That has to be top priority, is making sure that the states get those supplies.
00:28:04.000Again, the whole purpose of flattening the curve is to get it underneath that line.
00:28:07.000Here's Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, suggesting that they are running short on supplies across the board, although he did say that they're not short on hospital beds.
00:28:37.000We're talking about two or three or four-day supply, which makes the entire hospital system uncomfortable, which I also understand, because we're literally going day-to-day with our supplies, with our staff, etc. because we're literally going day-to-day with our supplies, with our The Louisiana governor has said the same thing as well, by the way.
00:28:59.000He says we could run out of ventilators this week.
00:29:01.000Every day we get new information that informs our modeling.
00:29:05.000We now think it's probably around the 9th of April before we exceed our ventilator capacity based on the current number on hand, and that we're a couple of days behind that on ICU bed capacity being exceeded.
00:29:17.000So as we achieve success in slowing the rate of spread, we also push out that date and Critically important is the number of people who will present to the hospital and not be able to get a vent or a bed is a smaller number.
00:29:33.000Okay, meanwhile, the economy obviously has been taken completely offline.
00:29:38.000According to the Wall Street Journal, we've actually seen one quarter of the entire American economy taken offline simply by the state shutdowns.
00:29:44.000They say at least one quarter of the U.S.
00:29:45.000economy has suddenly gone idle amid the coronavirus pandemic.
00:29:48.000According to analysis conducted by the Wall Street Journal, An unprecedented shutdown of commerce that economists say has never occurred on such a wide scale.
00:29:58.000This represents nearly 96% of national output.
00:30:01.000The study was done by Moody's Analytics.
00:30:03.000The counties that have not been put under shutdown order tend to be the ones that are less urban, a little bit more rural.
00:30:08.00041 states have ordered at least some businesses to close to reduce the spread of coronavirus, according to Moody's.
00:30:13.000Restaurants, universities, gyms, movie theaters, public parks, boutiques, millions of other non-essential business quote-unquote non-essential businesses have shut off the lights as a result.
00:30:21.000And we have seen one loss of the estimate is 25% of the American economy right off the top.
00:30:27.000The unemployment statistics are absolutely astounding.
00:30:29.000We are expected to hit 28 million unemployed over the course of the next three to four weeks.
00:30:34.000And then the question becomes, okay, when can we all go back to work?
00:30:48.000Right now, basically the case for us all staying home is asteroid headed for Earth could kill 2.2 million Americans based on that Imperial College model.
00:30:58.000And so the idea was, okay, if we have to shut down for a month to prevent one in 150 Americans from dying, then let's go ahead and do that.
00:31:05.000But as more data pours in, And as the numbers show that they are significantly less than 2.2 million, right?
00:31:12.000We are going to have to figure out exactly what we are willing to sacrifice as a society on an economic level and on a lifestyle level and on a freedom level.
00:31:20.000Because freedom does matter, by the way.
00:31:22.000Right, I mean, let's put this in a slightly different way.
00:31:25.000If the United States were invaded, and the people who were invading were going to suggest that from now on, you were not able to go to public events and you were going to be confined to your home for the foreseeable future, and it was going to cost us a certain number of lives in order to prevent that invasion, what number of lives would you actually sacrifice in order to do that?
00:31:42.000Now, this is not that, because again, the hope is that we don't end up in that situation.
00:31:45.000The hope is that this is not indefinite, that this is actually quite definite.
00:31:49.000And as the data comes in, that's why we have to have a plan to get out of this, because the more it looks indefinite, the more it looks like we're going to have to make hard trade-offs.
00:31:55.000Right now, this is why you need to gather data, because you don't want to have to make those choices between how many lives we have to sacrifice and how many people can we allow to go back to work and lead their lifestyle and go out and be free in a free society.
00:32:08.000You don't want to have to make those calculations.
00:32:09.000And so the first priority of the Trump administration, aside from just ensuring that whatever ventilators are out there get to the right places, the first priority is the data.
00:32:17.000And if governors and states and the federal government are not prioritizing the data, it's because they don't care enough about your freedoms.
00:32:35.000The question is how we get out of this thing now, and how we make the calculations as to how we get out of this thing.
00:32:40.000So now I'm back where I was on Friday, where I was saying we don't have the data to know how to get out of this thing.
00:32:44.000They better come up with it forthwith, because as this thing begins to look indefinite, as this begins to look like, okay, we're gonna lock down indefinitely until a vaccine is developed next year, And it could be seasonal, and it comes back in the fall, and we're gonna lock back down, and what does a non-lockdown America even look like?
00:32:59.000More and more Americans are gonna say, hold up a second, you expect me to indefinitely give up my freedom?
00:33:03.000And you expect me to do that on the basis of what now?
00:33:09.000Because, by the way, that does make a difference.
00:33:11.000Every life matters, but on an economic level, somebody passing away at the age of 95 is not quite the same thing as somebody passing away at the age of 20.
00:33:20.000If this were striking children, I think the amount of panic in the United States would be eight times the amount of panic that exists right now, and there's a fair amount of panic right now.
00:33:28.000And to pretend, by the way, that these calculations don't go on on a daily basis by the government is just silly.
00:33:32.000Literally every public policy professional makes these sorts of calculations on an economic GDP level and on a lifestyle level, because economics is a real life factor.
00:33:42.000For those who don't believe that, I suggest that you hand out your bank account number right now, and then we'll see if the economy actually affects you or not.
00:33:49.000All right, public bank account number and your PIN.
00:33:51.000And then we'll see if you think that economics is real or if it's just a social construct.
00:33:54.000We'll get to more of this in just one second.
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00:35:01.000Alrighty, in just one second, we are going to get to more of the proposed solutions, plus President Trump going at it with the media.
00:35:08.000When it comes to politics, the real question is going to become how much of this is permanent and how much of this is temporary, because Conservatives slash libertarians like me, even I am willing to go along with the temporary.
00:35:18.000I am not willing to go along with the permanent.
00:35:20.000And I'm not willing to go along with the idea that we're going to radically transform America's economy, our relationship with the government on the basis of uncertain data.
00:35:31.000I mean, I'll let you have the period of time to get your data together, guys.
00:35:34.000I'm willing to trust the experts until you get the data together.
00:35:36.000But you can't keep kicking it down the road.
00:35:38.000You can't keep telling me it'll take you six months to gather the data.
00:35:41.000Because at that point, you're looking at the making permanent of things that were once temporary.
00:35:48.000In the middle of a war, people make sacrifices.
00:35:50.000But that's with the understanding that the war eventually ends.
00:35:52.000If the war never ends, people are gonna start rethinking that stuff pretty damn fast.
00:35:56.000And we're gonna get to more of this in just one second because this does implicate some broader conversations about the future of the country and where we go from here.
00:36:03.000If you haven't had a chance to see some of our new content called the All Access Live, you should head over to dailywire.com and check it out.
00:36:08.000Jeremy Boring and I kicked it off a few weeks ago.
00:36:10.000All of the other hosts have done live streams over at dailywire.com.
00:36:13.000We're gonna continue all this week at 8 p.m.
00:36:16.000All Access Live is a lot more relaxed than our normal programming.
00:36:18.000It is less focused on bringing you news and information, more about sitting down with you at the end of a long day and just hanging out with you.
00:36:24.000I'm going to be doing at least one of these this week.
00:36:26.000Head on over to All Access Live right now at dailywire.com.
00:36:29.000All of our members get to check it out right now because we all want to just hang out together.
00:36:39.000You're listening to the largest growing, fastest growing conservative podcast in the nation.
00:36:43.000So as Scott Gottlieb is saying, one of the other solutions that needs to be brought to Bayer here is not just ICU beds and ventilators, but new treatments.
00:37:00.000Gottlieb says some imagine coronavirus will run its tragic course in the spring with direct the diverse results avoided by intense social distancing and then our lives can more or less return to normal.
00:37:39.000It's plausible as soon as this summer, but the process will have to move faster.
00:37:44.000There are a few different possibilities.
00:37:47.000Dozens of promising antiviral drugs, says Gottlieb, are in various stages of development, could be advanced quickly.
00:37:52.000The one furthest along is remdesivir from Gilead Sciences.
00:37:56.000There's evidence from clinical experience with COVID-19 patients it could be effective.
00:38:00.000The other approach involves antibody drugs, which mimic the function of immune cells.
00:38:05.000Antibody drugs are based on the same scientific principles that make convalescent plasma one interim tactic for treating the sickest COVID-19 patients.
00:38:13.000The biotech company Regeneron successfully developed an antibody drug to treat Ebola as well as one against MERS, and they're working on one that could hit human trials as soon as June.
00:38:21.000But we're going to need to see all of this speed up.
00:38:23.000Also, there's talk About hydroxychloroquine, the media again trying to generate all sorts of controversy about this.
00:38:30.000Anthony Fauci apparently got in a big argument with the head of trade, Peter Navarro, who again, like I'm not sure what he has to say about hydroxychloroquine.
00:38:38.000Fauci correctly says that the data is anecdotal at this point and people are upset with Fauci for saying that.
00:38:44.000The data can be anecdotal and also it might be the best option we have.
00:38:47.000Both of those things could be true, right?
00:38:48.000Just because there has been no large-scale clinical trial and very small-scale clinical trials.
00:38:52.000Just because there's been no large-scale clinical trial does not mean that when people are losing lung function, they're going to sit around going, oh, well, you know, I think that maybe I need the clinical trial before you give me the hydroxychloroquine.
00:39:02.000That's not how any of this is working.
00:39:05.000Again, the measures that have to be taken, ICU beds, ventilators, new drugs developed.
00:39:08.000And then the question becomes, if that's not going to happen by the fall, how do we reopen the economy?
00:39:14.000The question right now is not why there is no... Everyone's focused on the here and now.
00:40:00.000It doesn't mean that we're going around infecting people.
00:40:03.000With all of that said, the priority has to be reopening the economy as soon as we have the data to suggest exactly how we make that happen.
00:40:10.000So here's President Trump over the weekend again getting bashed for this.
00:40:12.000He says we have to reopen our economy.
00:40:15.000And anybody who pretends it doesn't matter is really making me suspicious at this point.
00:40:21.000Trump is not saying when we reopen our economy.
00:40:23.000Trump is not saying that we're going to reopen our economy tomorrow.
00:40:26.000He is saying that he has to have that first and foremost in his mind.
00:40:29.000By the way, one of the reasons why he is saying this is because on the back of every crisis, there is an attempt to radically transform America.
00:40:35.000This happened in the aftermath of the Great Depression, a radical transformation in the lives of Americans between the relationship between government, federal, state, local, and human beings.
00:40:44.000This happened in the aftermath of 9-11 with regard to our security.
00:40:49.000Suddenly people were just willing to accept a lot more surveillance in their lives than ever they had been willing to accept before.
00:40:53.000And now, they're starting to backtrack that, right?
00:40:55.000Now people are like, oh, well, maybe that wasn't such a great idea.
00:40:58.000In the aftermath of every crisis, there is an attempt to radically grow government on a permanent level.
00:41:03.000And that's just a normal human response, because you want to prevent the bad thing from happening again.
00:41:07.000Well, in this case, where you have the largest government reaction in the history of the United States, The prospect of that being made into a permanent feature of the American landscape is pretty scary, and it's one of the reasons why we should be looking to get out of this as fast as humanly possible.
00:41:26.000He was promoting universal basic income, like, two, like, years ago, right?
00:41:30.000He comes on the Sunday special, we have a full hour-long conversation.
00:41:33.000And the case that Andrew is making is that technology is going to put every low-wage worker out of work, and so we have to provide a universal basic income for those people so they have something to live on.
00:41:41.000And I said to him at the time, there's not a lot of evidence this is happening.
00:41:44.000We have a 4% unemployment rate in the country.
00:41:47.000We have more jobs open than there are people to fill those jobs.
00:41:51.000We do not have this vast underclass of people who are unemployable or unemployed.
00:41:54.000In fact, wages were rising fastest for people at the bottom in terms of blue collar wages as a percentage.
00:42:00.000They're rising very quickly for people at the bottom under President Trump's presidency up until this point.
00:42:19.000All those people are out of work right now.
00:42:21.000You just threw 30 million people out of work.
00:42:23.000Of those 30 million people, probably 25 million of those people were lower wage, mid to low wage, or lower income workers.
00:42:32.000So you just accomplished, in literally a week, what Andrew Yang was predicting was going to happen over the course of 10 years.
00:42:38.000Okay, so if you don't want to see a vast underclass of Americans who are just supported purely by the government, you need this economy up and running fast.
00:42:46.000And not only that, you need people to rely on capitalism.
00:42:49.000You need people to get back to the model of, yeah, capitalism is great.
00:42:53.000It's what allows me to get out there and earn.
00:42:56.000What you don't want is the government coming in, forcibly shutting down the entire economy, throwing 30 million people out of work, and then all those people have no choice but to vote for bigger governments.
00:43:04.000They have no choice but to vote for a government that's going to fill the gap created by the government in the first place.
00:43:09.000I've been willing to go along this whole time with the government drives that Ford F-150 through the front wall of your house, now they got to repay you for that?
00:43:17.000But what if the government just leaves the Ford F-150 there?
00:43:21.000What if the damage done by the Ford F-150 is so grave to the front wall of your home that the government isn't going to offer you a repayment to rebuild your home?
00:43:27.000They're not going to allow you to rebuild your home, in fact, because the economy's been stalled for too long.
00:43:33.000And because they need these temporary shutdowns that become permanent shutdowns.
00:43:36.000And so instead what they say is, okay, we're going to put you up in government housing.
00:43:39.000Sorry, you're going to have to move out of that house that we wrecked, but we've got this really nice housing tenement in the project and you're going to have to go there.
00:43:47.000And people say, okay, well, I have no alternative.
00:43:48.000So I guess I am going to have to take that, right?
00:43:51.000That is the danger here is that people start to radically rethink capitalism, even though it wasn't capitalism that failed here.
00:43:57.000What failed here was a global health shock followed by heavy government action.
00:44:03.000And if that becomes permanent, that is a real danger.
00:44:06.000And so, I am not willing to allow that to become permanent.
00:44:09.000I'm not willing to allow the government to become the chief breadwinner for all Americans and do so off the back of the people who are going to be left in the economy earning.
00:44:19.000Not when the government created this situation in the first place.
00:44:22.000I'm not willing to allow that to happen on a long-term basis.
00:44:24.000Again, on a short-term basis, sometimes you got to do what you got to do, right?
00:44:28.000Sometimes you got to shut down the schools.
00:44:29.000Sometimes you got to shut, although I think there are serious questions as to whether that should have been done.
00:44:33.000Sometimes you have to, you have to shut things down because you don't have any other better data.
00:44:37.000But if it turns out that the data gathering is taking a year and this is becoming a permanent feature and that the idea is that we are now going to be levying wealth taxes on people and destroying entrepreneurial activity in this country and destroying every business in the country on the basis of we threw 30, 40, 50 million people out of work and the only place we can get the wealth because we can't sell our bonds anymore because nobody is buying bonds.
00:44:58.000The only way to raise the money is either inflation or to confiscate wealth from the people who are going to produce all of the best products and hire all of these people back.
00:45:13.000We will continue to use every power, every authority, every single resource we've got to keep our people healthy, safe, secure, and to get this thing over with.
00:46:37.000Coronavirus tests all over the country.
00:46:39.000You're telling me that we're going to be able to roll out 750,000 tests every week and you can't spare 10,000 of those tests for just a randomized polling sample?
00:46:49.000Or that you can't open up a data center where we actually learn what the conditions are of people who are dying from this thing?
00:48:16.000It depends on the individual state that you're talking about.
00:48:19.000But they're doing very well and they're doing a magnificent job in running their states.
00:48:25.000Okay, so, you know, he is not wrong about this.
00:48:28.000I mean, a lot of these states are doing a good job and, you know, Ron DeSantis has been dragged over the coals because Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, refused a statewide shutdown.
00:48:35.000There were shutdowns in place for three of the biggest counties in Florida.
00:48:44.000So here's the thing that should scare you.
00:48:46.000If a Democrat were in charge right now, there's been a lot of talk about the political divide in the country.
00:48:50.000If a Democrat were in charge right now and using this as an opportunity to make permanent all of this stuff, the amount of blowback would be intense.
00:48:56.000The only reason there has not been the amount of blowback from Republican states that I think you would see if a Democrat were president is because people have the basic idea that Trump does not actually want the consequences of this stuff.
00:49:07.000He doesn't want the government taking over the economy.
00:49:09.000He doesn't want a complete radical rethink of the relationship between government and the economy.
00:49:13.000The more that Democrats talk about how they want to radically reshift how all of this works, the more Democrats talk about how they want crisis politics to become the norm.
00:49:21.000The more people are going to resist what needs to be done in the here and now.
00:49:26.000So I think even Democrats should probably be grateful that a Republican is president right now, because whether you like Trump or not, the fact is that if you want people to lock down, they have to trust the leadership.
00:49:35.000People have talked about, I don't trust Trump to handle this thing.
00:49:40.000But there's one thing that most Americans do trust Trump with, and that is that he doesn't have the desire to watch the government completely take over American life.
00:49:47.000And that is not something that most Americans think, I think, about Democrats.
00:49:50.000I think that if Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden were president right now and talking about radically reshaping the nature of the American economy, the blowback would be a lot more severe.
00:49:58.000The attempts to avoid the sort of necessaries here would be a lot more severe.
00:50:06.000And it would be half right and half wrong.
00:50:07.000It'd be wrong because you got to pay attention to the social distancing and you got, I mean, we're doing it in my house, right?
00:50:11.000You got to pay attention to all of this stuff.
00:50:48.000And it wasn't rated super highly by critics.
00:50:50.000Like, it did well with critics, but they were like, oh, this isn't in the top tier of Pixar films.
00:50:56.000There are some moments in this that are on par with some of the best stuff in Op.
00:50:59.000There's really some really good stuff here.
00:51:01.000So the movie is onward, it's about basically a pair of brothers who are elves, and their dad died a while ago, and they are able to bring him back for a day, but they screw up the spell.
00:51:12.000They're unable to actually bring his entire body back, and so they only bring back his legs, basically.
00:51:16.000And so they have to go on a quest to bring back the rest of their dad before the day ends, and he can only come back for the day.
00:52:36.000There's a lot to it, and it's fairly deep, so it's definitely worth checking out.
00:52:40.000And one thing about Pixar is, again, when you watch the movies with your kids, you're enjoying it on one level, they're enjoying it on another, and it's pretty great.
00:52:47.000Okay, time for some things that I hate.
00:52:53.000So as I mentioned, one of the things that the Democrats are trying to do here, and it really is pretty gross, is that they are trying to mix two messages.
00:52:59.000Message number one is that Trump is bad at this and incompetent, and message number two is that we need a permanent reshaping of the relationship between government and the American people.
00:53:09.000So that's hard to do while Trump is president, because on the one hand you're saying he's incompetent, and on the other hand you're saying he should take ultimate power over everybody's destiny.
00:53:17.000So instead, what they have said is, he's incompetent.
00:53:19.000If he were competent, things would be great, which is why when you give us power, we're going to take over everything, and then we'll be competent, and then everything will be great.
00:53:26.000Now, as I've pointed out, everybody was getting this wrong for, like, weeks on end.
00:53:31.000Like, everybody was getting this wrong for a very long time.
00:53:33.000And then, in early March, when the testing started to ramp up and it started to become clear what exactly was happening, then everybody started to take this a lot more seriously.
00:53:42.000And that is because failures of information exist on the private level.
00:54:13.000But Democrats want to make the case that government is uniquely good at things.
00:54:17.000It's just that Trump is uniquely bad at things.
00:54:19.000Because if they say that government is uniquely good at things, then people go, wait, but aren't you also saying that the government is sucking this up like being terrible?
00:54:26.000And the Democrats' answer is, no, no, no.
00:54:27.000If it weren't for Trump, government would be doing an excellent job.
00:54:30.000And that's why you're seeing them point to Cuomo, because Cuomo keeps saying, yeah, sure, like, New York is a hotspot and a hotbed, and de Blasio blew it in the city, and my policies may not have been all that great.
00:54:39.000But Trump, but Trump, but Trump is an all-purpose defense for the fact that government generally, right, left, and center, is not very good at things.
00:54:46.000So they've been pushing this dual message, which is Trump is incompetent, and also we need to radically reshift how things are done in the United States.
00:54:54.000So Rahm Emanuel, the former Obama chief of staff, former mayor of Chicago, he says that this really is just a matter, Biden versus Trump is really just competence versus incompetence.
00:55:05.000And in many ways, while you can have a lot of different policies, it's going to be the qualities of the individual come forward.
00:55:10.000And I think in the contrast here, and this is not just because I'm a Democrat, you have competence versus incompetence.
00:55:15.000You have trustworthiness versus actually constantly spin.
00:55:19.000And you have actually the most important quality, which is the ability of a president to be empathetic to the people that they lead versus, I think, something coming out of the White House of constant indifference and constant conflict and fighting.
00:55:32.000Okay, so again, it's competence versus incompetence.
00:55:37.000The Democrats have been incompetent on this all the way through, too.
00:55:40.000Again, de Blasio was mayor of New York.
00:55:42.000The mayor of New Orleans was telling people to go out and celebrate Mardi Gras.
00:55:45.000Nancy Pelosi, in late February, was telling people they ought to go down to Chinatown and hang out.
00:55:50.000Like the incompetence runs across the island.
00:55:53.000If you want to say that Joe Biden is supremely competent, again, I'm not seeing the evidence on this.
00:55:58.000Over the weekend, Joe Biden was criticizing Donald Trump for being too slow on the China travel ban.
00:56:02.000In January, he was ripping him as a xenophobe for it.
00:56:06.000In January, Joe Biden was saying that Trump never should have had any sort of travel ban from China.
00:56:12.000For weeks, he has been, as Guy Benson says at town hall, reactive, repeatedly, almost comically recommending courses of action the Trump administration had already pursued or implemented.
00:56:20.000Well, on Friday, the former VP supported, he actually turned and supported Trump's January 31st decision to ban foreign nationals.
00:56:28.000Suddenly, Kate Bedingfield, Biden's deputy campaign manager, said, He opposed the European travel ban.
00:56:51.000You have to move swiftly and we have to move more rapidly.
00:56:54.000You have to implement the Defense Production Act, empower a supply commander, create a Defense Production Act for banks to get out small business loans, ramp up testing, a whole range of things.
00:57:08.000You got to go faster than slower and we started off awfully slow.
00:57:12.000You know, 45 nations had already moved to keep, block China's personnel from being able to come to the United States before the president moved.
00:57:32.000And now it's like, oh, he didn't do it sooner.
00:57:33.000Right, because if Trump had said he wanted to ban travel from China, like early January, I'm sure Biden would have been all over that.
00:57:38.000Okay, bottom line is incompetence is bipartisan.
00:57:42.000That's one thing you can guarantee about human beings, no matter their industries, they will make mistakes.
00:57:47.000But, I mean, speaking of incompetence, by the way, and just sheer political brazenness, Biden, over the weekend, he was ripping into Trump because the Defense Department fired this Navy captain.
00:58:04.000Not because he was recommending up the chain that they needed to control the COVID situation on this battle carrier, but because He was emailing everybody outside the chain of command.
00:58:59.000I think the guy should have a commendation rather than be fired.
00:59:07.000He should get a commendation for copying people outside the chain of command?
00:59:10.000It's a very weird way to run a military.
00:59:11.000Okay, so the point here is that, proof positive, competence, not great across the aisle when it comes to government, but the Democrats have a stake in claiming that they are great at government.
00:59:21.000Because what they actually want is to transform the relationship between Americans and the government, which should scare everybody, and again, actually drives a wedge in a time when we don't need a wedge.
00:59:30.000Right, so you get Bernie, who's out there still, and Biden is still trying to capitulate to him.
00:59:34.000Here's Bernie saying, we still need fundamental socialist change in the United States.
00:59:38.000You want to scare people into saying, okay, screw all of this, I'm going back out and I'm working?
00:59:44.000Younger people in this country understand that we need fundamental change in the structure of American society.
00:59:53.000And instead of having society which glamorizes billionaires and says that we're all in this, the only thing that we should be doing is trying to make huge amounts of money, there is an entire younger generation that says, well, you know what?
01:00:06.000Maybe we should work together to create an economy that works for all, a health care system that works for all.
01:00:14.000Okay, so that's going to scare everybody.
01:00:16.000Because again, the combined argument, Trump's incompetent, therefore put Bernie or Biden in charge.
01:00:21.000And they're not only going to fix this thing and make sure there's no pandemic, they're going to completely reshape how American government is done.
01:00:38.000Also, my favorite here is that Bernie says that Trump is going to hand out money to people to help his re-election.
01:00:44.000Does Bernie not see the irony of being a socialist claiming that somebody else is going to hand out somebody else's money in order to help their re-election?
01:00:51.000We have a president who has done so much harm in this entire process Who has downplayed the crisis from day one, which will cost us.
01:01:02.000And his actions, or inactions, in not listening to the scientists and spouting off ridiculous ideas is in fact going to cost the lives of many thousands of Americans.
01:01:12.000If you think that during a campaign You're not going to see a lot of money from the Trump administration going to battleground states, to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida.
01:01:22.000You would be grossly underestimating the venality of this president.
01:01:28.000I'm really enjoying Bernie Sanders explaining that if you give people checks, that they are going to vote for you.
01:01:36.000Bernie, a socialist, claiming that he is above reproach, but his entire program is steal money from some people and give it to other people for their votes, but it's bad when Trump signs the checks because everybody's unemployed.
01:01:46.000Alrighty, well we'll be back here later today with two additional hours of content, and we'll bring you some more experts, we'll talk to some doctors, you know, we're constantly trying to bring you information.
01:01:52.000If you didn't have a chance, listen to our Sunday special.