The Ben Shapiro Show - The Red Trickle

00:00:00.000 Republicans wildly underperform expectations as they look to barely hold the House and the Senate remains up for grabs.

00:00:05.000 Ron DeSantis leads the Florida Republicans to a red tsunami and we examine what comes next for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

00:00:11.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:00:11.000 This is the Ben Shapiro Show.

00:00:13.000 This show is sponsored by ExpressVPN.

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00:00:24.000 We'll get to all the news in just one moment.

00:00:26.000 First, inflation is still really, really bad.

00:00:28.000 I know, everybody forgot about that for a moment.

00:00:30.000 The Daily Wire reports in less than two years, inflation has soared from 1.4% to 8.6%.

00:00:35.000 The current administration continues to spend and spend and spend, and nothing last night will make them stop spending, which is why you might want to hedge against bad government policy by getting some precious metals with Birch Gold.

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00:01:15.000 Again, we are headed into some rocky economic territory and Joe Biden feels that he's been given a mandate to do more dumb stuff.

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00:01:28.000 Also, the midterms are now over.

00:01:30.000 It's time for some actual change.

00:01:31.000 Inflation isn't going away.

00:01:32.000 If the current administration keeps handing out free checks, which they will, Americans won't just be hurting, they'll be fighting to survive.

00:01:37.000 The typical investment portfolio of 60-40 stocks and bonds is down 34% this year.

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00:02:31.000 Well, an extraordinarily disappointing night for the Republicans last night.

00:02:35.000 Before the election, I had laid out the possibility of three scenarios.

00:02:38.000 One was the red trickle.

00:02:40.000 One was the red tide.

00:02:41.000 The third was the red wave or the red tsunami.

00:02:43.000 The red trickle was going to be the Republicans win, say, 10 seats and up in the House.

00:02:48.000 They gain the House.

00:02:49.000 And they barely take the Senate.

00:02:52.000 Or they hold even in the Senate.

00:02:54.000 And then you have the red tide, and that was going to be 20-plus seats for the Republicans, fairly strong showing on the evening.

00:03:00.000 Plus, they take, say, a couple more seats in the Senate, end up with a 52-48 majority.

00:03:06.000 And then there was the red wave, which would have been like 54 seats in the Senate and upwards of 230 seats in the House, like 235 or something.

00:03:13.000 This was not only not a red wave, it was not a red tide, it was barely a red trickle.

00:03:19.000 Barely, barely, barely a red trickle, which means heads should roll.

00:03:23.000 When your football team is expected to go 16-0, it's one thing if your football team then proceeds to go 14-2 or 10-6.

00:03:32.000 If your football team proceeds to go 8-8, people get fired.

00:03:37.000 The entire coaching staff, the entire leadership team in the Republican Party needs to go, and it needs to go now.

00:03:43.000 I spoke to the Republican House Caucus back in 2021.

00:03:48.000 And I said to them, if somehow you fail to take the House, given the conditions that you have been given, every one of you ought to lose your jobs.

00:03:54.000 Well, they're barely going to take the House.

00:03:56.000 And I mean barely, barely, barely going to take the House.

00:03:59.000 The current estimate suggests that Republicans are going to win somewhere between 8 and 15 seats in the House.

00:04:03.000 They started off with 212.

00:04:04.000 That means they will end up on the low end at 220, at a 435, which means that they would have a 5-seat majority in the House after starting with just a 10-seat minority in the House.

00:04:15.000 That is an extraordinarily crappy result.

00:04:17.000 In the Senate, the Republicans look like they are going to be on the losing edge of this one.

00:04:22.000 Basically, the entire Senate comes down right now to Georgia, where it looks like there will be a runoff between Hershel Walker and Raphael Warnock.

00:04:29.000 Arizona, not all the votes are in because apparently all the votes in Arizona are counted by a single blind nun working in Mozambique.

00:04:35.000 And so we have to take at least seven years to count all the votes in Arizona.

00:04:38.000 And the same thing holds true in Nevada.

00:04:41.000 If you have to ballpark The outcomes of those races right now, what you would figure is that Republicans, in order to gain control of the Senate, would need to take two out of those three.

00:04:50.000 Republicans, I think, may still take Nevada.

00:04:53.000 It looks as though they're going to lose Arizona.

00:04:56.000 And that runoff with Herschel, we're going to get another Senate runoff in Georgia, this time featuring the extraordinarily flawed candidacy of Herschel Walker against Raphael Warnock in an off-year election where Brian Kemp is not on the ballot to drag Hershel Walker up ballot.

00:05:13.000 These are crap results, guys.

00:05:14.000 These are bad results.

00:05:15.000 I'm not going to sugarcoat stuff.

00:05:16.000 I'm not going to pretend that this is a wonderful evening for Republicans, or even that it's a good evening for Republicans.

00:05:21.000 It was a garbage evening for Republicans last night.

00:05:23.000 And we'll get to all the reasons it was a garbage evening for Republicans in just one second.

00:05:27.000 First, we need to actually go through the results.

00:05:30.000 So, Kevin McCarthy at 2 a.m.

00:05:31.000 sort of wobbled out to take, I can't say a victory lap, it was more like a couple of victory steps.

00:05:37.000 Because this was supposed to be a big coming out party for Kevin McCarthy.

00:05:40.000 The guy was going to be Speaker of the House, supposedly.

00:05:43.000 And his leadership?

00:05:44.000 Shall we say that it was tepid?

00:05:46.000 I don't know that you get to be Speaker of the House after you win 8 to 15 seats in a year in which the fundamentals not only favor you, but favor you dramatically.

00:05:55.000 Let us recall the fundamentals going into this particular election cycle.

00:05:58.000 The current President of the United States, Joe Biden, who is not alive, has a 43% approval rating.

00:06:04.000 The Democrats in Congress are not popular.

00:06:06.000 Their approval ratings are not good.

00:06:08.000 We have a 40-year inflation spiral.

00:06:11.000 We have historically high gas prices.

00:06:13.000 We have failure when it comes to Afghanistan.

00:06:16.000 We had polling suggesting that the Republicans were going to do well on the generic congressional ballot.

00:06:19.000 And by the way, polling that is justified in the exit polls, as we'll talk about, about good Republican performances among Hispanics and Blacks.

00:06:26.000 And yet, somehow, magically, the Republicans translated all of those systemic advantages, again in an off-year election, where there's one party in power, they translated all of that into an 8 to 15 seat pickup.

00:06:36.000 That is unprecedentedly bad.

00:06:38.000 It is the worst election for the out-of-party power.

00:06:41.000 The out-of-power party since the 2002 midterm elections, which came right after 9-11.

00:06:47.000 And that, at least, you could say, well, George W. Bush had the coattail effect of 9-11.

00:06:51.000 Americans, for a brief instant in time, were unified around a patriotic fervor for the country and for the current president of the United States, George W. Bush, in 2002.

00:06:58.000 Right now, nobody likes Joe Biden.

00:07:01.000 If you look at the actual exit polls, what they showed is that a huge majority, like 75% of Americans, were negative about the economy.

00:07:07.000 How are you the party out-of-power in all the elected branches of the federal government?

00:07:12.000 And 75% of the people think the economy sucks, and you win 8 to 15 seats.

00:07:17.000 How is that even possible?

00:07:19.000 So Kevin McCarthy went out there and tried to turn a sow's ear into a silk purse.

00:07:24.000 It didn't go amazing.

00:07:25.000 Here's what he sounded like last night.

00:07:27.000 Now tonight, we built upon those gains two years ago, and it is clear that we are going to take the House back.

00:07:39.000 Now let me tell you, you're out late.

00:07:42.000 But when you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority, and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority.

00:07:48.000 Okay, so there's some sort of AirSats enthusiasm last night, but the actual reports from the victory party there is that people were just confused and bewildered as to what exactly Because, again, this was supposed to be a big win for the Republicans, and it just wasn't.

00:08:08.000 It just was not.

00:08:09.000 As Politico reported, McCarthy actually delayed a victory speech to what was supposed to be a jubilant party of Republicans until 2 a.m.

00:08:15.000 on Wednesday.

00:08:15.000 I mean, I was asleep by the time this thing happened.

00:08:18.000 We were supposed to have a victory party, like, 10 p.m.

00:08:21.000 This was supposed to be an early night.

00:08:22.000 It was not only not an early night, it was a dramatic underperformance.

00:08:25.000 The GOP leader kept his speech brief.

00:08:27.000 He didn't have a firm call that his party had even won the House.

00:08:30.000 Now, listen, does it make a difference that the Republicans took the House?

00:08:33.000 Yes, it means that they can stymie the worst excesses of Joe Biden.

00:08:36.000 And that's good for the country.

00:08:37.000 As Elon Musk suggested, divided government is better at this point than unified government, for sure.

00:08:43.000 With that said, is this a strong Republican Party?

00:08:46.000 Is this a Republican Party that looks durable?

00:08:49.000 Is this a Republican Party that looks like it has any leadership class at all?

00:08:52.000 Or does it look like there's a massive leadership vacuum at the top of the Republican Party, particularly in the House, but also when it comes to the National Party?

00:09:01.000 According to Politico, the Sleepy event was not the victory rager Republicans had envisioned.

00:09:04.000 In downtown D.C.

00:09:05.000 at the West End, GOP staffers and lobbyists had flocked to different open bars scattered around downstairs ballrooms around 9 p.m., keenly awaiting election results to start rolling in from TVs due to Fox News.

00:09:14.000 However, in the hours leading up to McCarthy's appearance, there were few cheers as the room watched as competitive races rolled in with mixed results.

00:09:21.000 And that is correct.

00:09:23.000 And the attitude over the course of the evening went from jubilant at the beginning of the evening, to cautiously optimistic, to cautiously pessimistic, to shoot me now.

00:09:30.000 That was the generalized attitude.

00:09:32.000 Because again, a minor victory.

00:09:35.000 And it is.

00:09:35.000 It's a major victory in terms of the shift in governance to gain control of the House, obviously.

00:09:40.000 But what was supposed to be a wave did not even come in as a tide.

00:09:43.000 And as I say, barely came in as a trickle.

00:09:46.000 There is no way to pretend that this was a good night for Republicans, because it just wasn't.

00:09:51.000 It was such a bad night for Republicans that some of the more high-profile Republicans, for example, like Lauren Boebert.

00:09:57.000 Lauren Boebert looks like she's going to lose her seat in Colorado.

00:10:00.000 That is an R-plus-7 district.

00:10:03.000 Democrats flipped Steve Chabot's district in Ohio.

00:10:06.000 Democrats were not supposed to flip any districts last night.

00:10:08.000 Republicans were supposed to flip all the districts last night.

00:10:12.000 There were a few positive House results in Florida and New York.

00:10:15.000 Lee Zeldin in New York, who we'll get to in a little bit.

00:10:17.000 He lost his race to Kathy Hochul, but his strong performance did drag a lot of Republicans in the Hudson River Valley into Congress along with him, mitigating the possibility that Republicans would not gain the House.

00:10:27.000 But a bunch of vulnerable Republicans In what was supposed to be a wave year, four of the Republicans lost their seats.

00:10:33.000 That includes Mayra Flores in South Texas, who was a star five seconds ago.

00:10:36.000 Now she's out of Congress.

00:10:37.000 She tweeted, Now, here's the thing.

00:10:44.000 I'm not sure the Republicans and independents stayed home.

00:10:48.000 I think the Republicans actually showed up.

00:10:50.000 I just think that some independents had some very serious questions about the Republican Party, and that will require some serious soul-searching in all of this.

00:10:58.000 Again, right now as we speak, the Republicans have not formally won the House.

00:11:02.000 There are still races that have yet to be counted.

00:11:03.000 They probably will win the House, but these are not good numbers for the Republicans.

00:11:08.000 And Boebert was not, she was not supposed to lose that race in Colorado.

00:11:13.000 And part of that is because the House Republicans did not convey a sense that they know what they are doing.

00:11:20.000 There are going to be a few big messages we're going to talk about, about what happened last night.

00:11:24.000 The first message is candidate quality matters.

00:11:27.000 Being perceived as solid in your governance strategy matters.

00:11:31.000 Republicans who had a solid record of governance, Republicans who were perceived as sober and serious, did quite well last night.

00:11:38.000 And everybody else took it directly on the nose.

00:11:41.000 That was certainly the story in the Senate.

00:11:43.000 The story in the Senate is candidate quality, candidate quality, candidate quality.

00:11:46.000 And what I mean by this is that if you are perceived as a crazy person, if you are perceived as wild and out of the box, even if you excite the base, you will lose.

00:11:57.000 You must be perceived, if you wish to win, you must be perceived as a person serious enough to hold the office, at least if you wish to be a Republican.

00:12:03.000 If you're a Democrat, you can be as crazy as you want to be, because for whatever reason, you have systemic built-in advantages that make up for the fact that, for example, John Fetterman is not only a Bernie Sanders-style socialist, but also not fully functional.

00:12:15.000 But if you're a Republican, the baseline assumption is going to be by the electorate that unless you are competent and sober, you don't deserve power.

00:12:24.000 And so there was a lot of talk in the lead up to the election about, I engaged in some of this, about how the Joe Biden democracies at stake message was not resonating with people.

00:12:32.000 And in a direct way, it wasn't resonating with people, right?

00:12:34.000 Republicans did take the House.

00:12:35.000 So obviously the notion that just that message alone was going to keep Republicans from power is wrong.

00:12:41.000 What this meant is that Republicans got silly.

00:12:46.000 They nominated a bunch of bad candidates in close races, and oddly enough, they nominated a bunch of good candidates in not-close races.

00:12:52.000 And so you ended up in the House with this weird dichotomy, where in districts that Democrats won by 18, Republicans would make up 15 points of that ground with a really solid candidate and then lose.

00:13:01.000 And then in districts where Democrats were up by 3, Republicans would nominate somebody Who was like a big fan of January 6th.

00:13:08.000 And then that person would lose.

00:13:09.000 And so they would nominate bad candidates in close races and good candidates in not close races, and they would lose both of those things.

00:13:16.000 That was the pattern in the House.

00:13:17.000 And then in the Senate, Republicans made the mistake of thinking that because the dynamics for the Democrats were going to be bad, they could nominate anyone.

00:13:25.000 So, if you look at the narrative of politics over the past few years, what you will see is that what Americans basically want is stability.

00:13:33.000 They want stasis.

00:13:34.000 That's all they want.

00:13:35.000 And the parties keep taking the wrong message from all of this.

00:13:38.000 In 2012, Democrats took the message that they had an unbeatable coalition and they could be as radical as they wanted to be.

00:13:43.000 And the reaction by the American people was, we'll elect Donald Trump to not give you that sort of power.

00:13:47.000 Donald Trump won, and instead of taking the election, the Republican Party, as a sign that it was time to get back to some semblance of normalcy, instead they said, well, I mean, if we won, this means that we have magic on our side, and we can nominate whoever we want to, and we'll just continue to win victories.

00:14:02.000 And then Donald Trump did not win in 2020.

00:14:04.000 And now Republicans did not win in 2022.

00:14:05.000 The underlying dynamics of American politics are the same.

00:14:09.000 Gravity applies.

00:14:11.000 Just because some out-of-the-box candidates are capable of defying gravity for a short period of time does not mean that they don't fly too close to the sun and the wings burn away.

00:14:19.000 And that is what we are watching happen for virtually everybody in all parties.

00:14:24.000 The American people are not up for crazy right now.

00:14:26.000 They are sick of crazy.

00:14:28.000 They are sick of Volatile.

00:14:30.000 They are sick of feeling uneasy about candidates.

00:14:35.000 They're just not all that interested in that sort of stuff.

00:14:39.000 And so if you pick bad candidates, you're going to lose.

00:14:41.000 There are a bunch of examples of this last night in the Senate.

00:14:44.000 So, Don Balduck was nominated in New Hampshire with the help of Democrats, by the way, who felt he would be easier to run against.

00:14:48.000 Jon Favreau, over at Pod Save America, he was actually celebrating Democrats having promoted a threat to democracy, right?

00:14:54.000 Because Don Balduck denied the election of 2020, and so he was a quote-unquote threat to democracy, according to the left.

00:14:59.000 They helped nominate him, and then he got killed, right?

00:15:02.000 He got destroyed last night against Maggie Hassan.

00:15:06.000 Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.

00:15:07.000 In that New Hampshire Senate race, The final results in the vote count look really bad.

00:15:14.000 This was not a close race.

00:15:15.000 It was supposed to be within a couple of points.

00:15:17.000 Instead, Maggie Hassan walked away with an 11-point victory in New Hampshire.

00:15:22.000 That is a testament to bad candidate quality in New Hampshire.

00:15:26.000 The same thing happened in Pennsylvania.

00:15:30.000 John Fetterman won Pennsylvania despite the fact that he is not fully functional.

00:15:33.000 Now, I will say, I think that it may be Because John Fetterman was not fully functional, that a lot of the focus turned away from the fact that he is a radical to the fact that he was not fully functional, and that's bad campaigning.

00:15:44.000 Granted, that's possible.

00:15:46.000 It is also possible that what John Fetterman did at the very beginning of the race basically ended the race.

00:15:50.000 Mehmet Oz was a bad candidate.

00:15:52.000 Dave McCormick was a better candidate in that race.

00:15:55.000 Mehmet Oz got Donald Trump's endorsement, and then he won the primary by about seven votes.

00:16:00.000 And then within the first five minutes of the campaign, John Fetterman successfully labeled Mehmet Oz a TV snake oil salesman who was not from the state and owned mansions and had no connection with the people of Pennsylvania.

00:16:10.000 And so John Fetterman, with a stroke, defeated Mehmet Oz last night.

00:16:15.000 Fetterman ended up with 49% support compared with 48% support for Mehmet Oz.

00:16:21.000 Again, bad candidate quality is a thing.

00:16:25.000 Hey, how about in Georgia?

00:16:26.000 It now looks like a runoff in Georgia is the likely result between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker.

00:16:31.000 Herschel Walker was not the best candidate in the primary, but he was endorsed by certain people, and so Herschel Walker became the nominee.

00:16:37.000 And so we had a campaign filled with talk of how many illegitimate children Herschel Walker had.

00:16:41.000 How exactly was that going to be a big win for the Republicans?

00:16:45.000 Or why don't we turn to Arizona?

00:16:46.000 In Arizona, it's still too early to know the results, but right now, both Carrie Lake and Blake Masters are trailing in Arizona.

00:16:52.000 Fairly significantly.

00:16:55.000 Kerry Lake was being celebrated as kind of the next go-round of Donald Trump.

00:16:59.000 Blake Masters was making up all the lake ground, and then it just kind of faded.

00:17:03.000 It didn't happen.

00:17:04.000 Why?

00:17:05.000 Maybe because the candidates weren't all that good.

00:17:08.000 Particularly masters in the Senate.

00:17:10.000 Perhaps he had a lot of flaws.

00:17:12.000 Perhaps the commercials that he was cutting about how wonderful Donald Trump was, while Mark Kelly was cutting commercials about how he was shaking hands with every Republican mayor he could find.

00:17:20.000 Maybe that was a better candidacy.

00:17:22.000 Bad candidate quality tells.

00:17:24.000 Bad candidate quality matters.

00:17:26.000 And good candidate quality tells, too.

00:17:28.000 Nevada, it's still too early to know.

00:17:30.000 That race looks like it may be competitive and it may actually go in favor of Adam Laxalt in Nevada.

00:17:34.000 He's the strongest of that basket of candidates.

00:17:37.000 Now the counter example that people are using to all of the candidate quality matters kind of talk is J.D.

00:17:42.000 Vance in Ohio.

00:17:43.000 Well, there are a couple problems with that.

00:17:45.000 One, Ohio is a blood red state.

00:17:47.000 Ohio is not a purple state.

00:17:48.000 J.D.

00:17:49.000 Vance won almost precisely the same percentage as Donald Trump won in Ohio.

00:17:53.000 If you want to tell whether a candidate in the Republican Party did well, you have to look at whether they outperformed Donald Trump's 2020 performance in the same state.

00:18:02.000 And I gotta tell you, not a lot of outperformance by Trump's handpicked candidates in the swing states.

00:18:06.000 In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump won 48.8% of the votes in 2020.

00:18:08.000 Dr. Oz won 47.7% of the vote last night.

00:18:13.000 In Georgia, Donald Trump won 49.2% of the vote.

00:18:16.000 Hershel Walker is currently clocking in at 48.5% of the vote in Georgia.

00:18:19.000 In Arizona, Donald Trump won 49% of the vote in 2020.

00:18:22.000 His handpicked candidate, Blake Masters, is currently clocking in at 46% of the vote in Arizona.

00:18:27.000 In Ohio, J.D.

00:18:28.000 Vance won precisely the same percentage as Donald Trump, 53.3%.

00:18:32.000 This is an off-year election.

00:18:33.000 Republicans are supposed to outperform.

00:18:37.000 This is the election where Republicans are supposed to do better than average.

00:18:40.000 And then, take a look at the candidates who are the less Trumpy candidates.

00:18:44.000 In Nevada, Donald Trump won 47.7% of the vote.

00:18:47.000 Right now, Adam Laxalt has about 49.8% of the vote.

00:18:50.000 That is an outperformance.

00:18:52.000 In Florida, Marco Rubio, swing state.

00:18:55.000 Donald Trump won 51.7% of the vote.

00:18:57.000 Marco Rubio won 57.7% of the vote.

00:19:00.000 That's a serious gain.

00:19:01.000 Candidate quality matters.

00:19:03.000 You can't defy the gravity of bad candidates.

00:19:07.000 And it is worth noting this going forward.

00:19:09.000 Now, this is particularly obvious when it comes to the governors.

00:19:12.000 As I say, if the Republican Party is looking for a model of governance going forward, if they're looking, how do we win races?

00:19:18.000 Baseline levels of competence, and then engage in the culture war issues.

00:19:21.000 Not the other way around.

00:19:23.000 And also, don't alienate everybody on earth with claims that the vast majority of Americans do not actually believe.

00:19:30.000 You cannot make election 2020 the subject of your campaign in any major way in the United States and hope that things are going to turn out amazing unless your district is like a deep red district.

00:19:41.000 That is one of the messages of this thing.

00:19:43.000 And you can tell, by the way, that there were governors last night who didn't do that and who walked away absolutely clean, who did great last night.

00:19:52.000 The big winners last night were all the people That we're kind of at odds with President Trump.

00:19:58.000 That we're at odds with the Trumpification of the Republican Party, who are not the out-of-the-box candidates.

00:20:03.000 Those people did a lot better last night than the generalized Republican Party.

00:20:07.000 And the Democrats who are running against the most perceived Trump-ish candidates are the ones who actually ended up doing really well last night.

00:20:14.000 Those Democrats ended up doing really well.

00:20:17.000 What does that say?

00:20:17.000 It says that the very first rule of politics, I say it all the time, if you wish to win, make it very hard to vote for your opponent, make it very easy to vote for you.

00:20:25.000 The Republicans spent a lot of time this election cycle making it hard to vote for their opponent, and then they proceeded to nominate a bevy of candidates who made it very hard to vote for the Republican.

00:20:33.000 And that has some downstream effects.

00:20:35.000 Now, when you look to the gubernatorial races, what you can see is that when you make it easy to vote for your own candidate, then your candidates do really, really well.

00:20:42.000 We'll get to more on this in just one moment.

00:20:43.000 First, are you hiring?

00:20:45.000 What type of role are you hiring for?

00:20:46.000 Maybe you need to hire somebody who can wear a lot of hats.

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00:21:45.000 You may have noticed that violent crime stats are not looking amazing.

00:21:47.000 Compared to 2019 mid-year figures, some major cities are experiencing as much as a 50% increase in homicides and a 36% increase in aggravated assaults.

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00:22:08.000 You should be as well.

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00:22:54.000 So, let's take a couple of examples in terms of how this broke out.

00:22:58.000 So, in the Ohio vote, if you recall, early on in this particular race in Ohio, Mike DeWine was running against Nan Whaley in the Democratic Party.

00:23:07.000 This was supposed to be a possible toss-up race.

00:23:09.000 Ohio was supposed to be quasi-purple.

00:23:11.000 Mike DeWine won that race by over a million votes.

00:23:15.000 By 25% he won that race.

00:23:18.000 Now, nobody had Ohio on their sort of calendar.

00:23:21.000 Mainly because DeWine started pulling away and pulling away early.

00:23:25.000 And remember, DeWine was very much at odds with Donald Trump.

00:23:28.000 But that fell away early because it turns out the people of Ohio trust Mike DeWine with governance for good or ill.

00:23:33.000 The best example of this is Brian Kemp in Georgia.

00:23:36.000 Donald Trump actively opposed Brian Kemp's nomination in Georgia.

00:23:39.000 He suggested that Brian Kemp was a terrible candidate.

00:23:41.000 In fact, in the middle of the election cycle, he suggested maybe it would be better for America if Stacey Abrams won.

00:23:47.000 Brian Kemp clocked the living crap out of Stacey Abrams last night.

00:23:52.000 Brian Kemp did great.

00:23:54.000 He did great because it turns out that he knows how to govern, and the people of Georgia trust him.

00:23:59.000 And because the people of Georgia trust Brian Kemp, that means that Stacey Abrams is once again relegated to being not governor.

00:24:07.000 If you're looking for bright spots for Republicans last night, Stacey Abrams actually conceding an election for a change was kind of fun.

00:24:13.000 So here is Stacey Abrams, president of the universe, conceding that she is not in fact going to be, nor has she ever been, governor of Georgia.

00:24:19.000 Thank you.

00:24:22.000 Thank you, George.

00:24:24.000 Thank you, Daddy.

00:24:28.000 It is good to be here in this moment, surrounded by your love and support.

00:24:34.000 And let me begin by offering congratulations to Governor Brian Kemp.

00:24:40.000 And she's like, I know, I know, you want me to deny the election, but I'm not going to do it.

00:24:44.000 Which, by the way, good for her to change strategy once in a while.

00:24:49.000 The final results, by the way, in Georgia were extraordinarily positive for Kemp.

00:24:53.000 He ended up winning 53.4% of the vote.

00:24:55.000 He beat Stacey Abrams by somewhere between six and seven points.

00:24:58.000 That is a big win in a state where Stacey Abrams, Democrats poured money into Stacey Abrams.

00:25:03.000 Democrats spent an extraordinary amount of money on Stacey.

00:25:06.000 Like, they spent $105 million on Stacey Abrams, and she went down in flaming defeat.

00:25:11.000 Why?

00:25:11.000 Because good Republican governance combined with, yes, some of the culture war issues, Brian Kemp opened the state of Georgia up early, lest you forget.

00:25:18.000 He governed well during COVID.

00:25:20.000 He has engaged in culture war issues around, for example, critical race theory or radical transing of the children.

00:25:27.000 But that's the icing on the cake.

00:25:28.000 The basic elements of the cake are govern well, earn the trust of your population.

00:25:33.000 Brian Kemp did that.

00:25:34.000 So he was able to withstand a very tepid challenge from David Perdue in the primary.

00:25:38.000 And then he was able to beat Stacey Abrams, who was supposed to be president of the universe.

00:25:43.000 Meanwhile, same thing happened over in Texas.

00:25:45.000 So Greg Abbott in Texas, He finally took out Beto O'Rourke.

00:25:50.000 Beto is running out of offices to lose for.

00:25:52.000 He's lost for Congress.

00:25:53.000 He's now lost for Senate.

00:25:54.000 He's lost for governor of the state.

00:25:56.000 He's lost for president.

00:25:58.000 He's gonna run for, I don't know, chancellor of the EU or something next.

00:26:02.000 He's announcing his big electoral push for UN Secretary General, I suppose.

00:26:07.000 Here is Beto O'Rourke conceding in the most enthusiastic possible fashion before going to eat New Mexican dirt.

00:26:12.000 shirt.

00:26:30.000 And you have made that possible.

00:26:33.000 There is no more enthusiastic crowd than a Beto O'Rourke crowd at a losing speech.

00:26:39.000 That crowd loves when Beto O'Rourke loses.

00:26:41.000 Like, bro, people will remember this race forever.

00:26:45.000 And by forever, I mean like a second and a half.

00:26:49.000 That was not a competitive race.

00:26:50.000 Remember that time when he was going to take out Greg Abbott?

00:26:53.000 Final results of this election.

00:26:55.000 Greg Abbott, 54.9%.

00:26:57.000 Beto O'Rourke, 43.8%.

00:27:00.000 He lost by almost a million votes in Texas.

00:27:04.000 So yeah, things went unbelievably poorly for Beto.

00:27:06.000 So we bid a fond farewell to both Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke.

00:27:10.000 Beto's gonna go, he's gonna skateboard and bong, rip and kickflip and enjoy his life now, man.

00:27:17.000 Until the next time he's born to run.

00:27:19.000 So we bid to fond farewell to Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke, good Republican candidates.

00:27:23.000 Won last night, bad Republican candidates lost.

00:27:26.000 This is not so hard.

00:27:27.000 Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, he got hammered.

00:27:31.000 He got destroyed in Pennsylvania.

00:27:32.000 Okay, now he got destroyed because, shockingly, he's a bad candidate.

00:27:38.000 There are people who are suggesting that there is this big, quiet vote for Doug Mastriano.

00:27:42.000 No.

00:27:43.000 No.

00:27:44.000 The answer is no.

00:27:45.000 Josh Shapiro, who is the Attorney General of the state, beat Doug Mastriano by almost 14 points.

00:27:50.000 He beat him 55.6 to 42.6.

00:27:51.000 That's a 13-point victory for Josh Shapiro over Doug Mastriano.

00:27:57.000 And might it have behooved the Republican Party to nominate a better gubernatorial candidate who could have perhaps helped Dr. Oz over the finish line in a much closer race against Jon Federen?

00:28:05.000 It might have helped.

00:28:07.000 It might have helped.

00:28:07.000 Run bad candidates, win stupid prizes.

00:28:10.000 Meanwhile, if you run good candidates, even when you lose, you have coattails.

00:28:14.000 So, for example, Lee Zeldin over in New York.

00:28:16.000 Good candidate.

00:28:18.000 Not an anti-Trump guy, Lee Zeldin, but certainly a more establishmentarian Republican.

00:28:23.000 He ran a very concerted, disciplined race against Kathy Hochul.

00:28:28.000 And the results in that race came out in favor of Kathy Hochul, but Lee Zeldin had some significant downstream effect.

00:28:36.000 There were three House seats that flipped in New York because Lee Zeldin ran a strong race at the top of the ticket.

00:28:41.000 So basically, he gave up his House seat to Lee Zeldin, and he sacrificed it in order so that New York could have a few more Republican congresspeople, which, by the way, may spell the difference between Republican control and not Republican control in the House of Representatives.

00:28:54.000 In that governor's race, by the way, Kathy Hochul ended up winning by just about five points.

00:29:00.000 That is a dramatic loss for Kathy Hochul, considering, I mean, she wins, but it's a big loss.

00:29:05.000 It's a win for Kathy Hochul in the same way the last night was a win for Republicans.

00:29:08.000 Like, it technically won, but not amazing.

00:29:11.000 Andrew Cuomo won his last race in New York State by, like, 25 points.

00:29:14.000 A five-point loss for Lee Zeldin demonstrates that good candidates do well and have coattails.

00:29:21.000 The reason I keep coming back to this is because there need to be some lessons for the future here.

00:29:25.000 Republicans seem to have a very, very nasty habit.

00:29:27.000 And the nasty habit is that they keep going back to the well of magic.

00:29:33.000 They keep thinking, okay, well, you know, but people will hate Democrats so much that we can nominate literally anybody.

00:29:37.000 We can nominate that dude on a street corner.

00:29:39.000 I mean, sure, he's shouting at the sky and he's scratching at himself with one of those weird back scratcher things.

00:29:44.000 And sure, he's got fleas and rabies, but that guy, he could, I mean, anyone could be Biden, right?

00:29:48.000 I mean, anyone can beat these Democrats.

00:29:50.000 I mean, these Democrats, these woke idiots, like anyone could beat them.

00:29:53.000 We could run dog turd, wrong.

00:29:55.000 Wrong.

00:29:56.000 You have to run actual good, responsible candidates.

00:29:58.000 Learn your lesson, guys.

00:30:01.000 And lest you think, again, that this is some sort of out-of-the-box strategy, that there's no evidence to back this, there's sort of no counterexample to what happened with Republicans last night.

00:30:12.000 There were several.

00:30:13.000 I mentioned Brian Kemp already.

00:30:15.000 But the big counterexample of the night is there was one area of the country where there was indeed not just a red trickle, not just a red tide, not just a red wave, a red tsunami.

00:30:25.000 One specific area of the country, can you name it?

00:30:28.000 One specific area of the country where the Republicans cleaned up, where there wasn't a vote in sight that they didn't get.

00:30:34.000 That area, you guessed it, is Florida.

00:30:38.000 In Florida, the Republicans did heavy damage, serious, serious damage.

00:30:44.000 In fact, because Florida reports its results fast and in clean fashion, like the polls closed at 7 p.m.

00:30:50.000 in most of Florida except for the panhandle, by like 8 p.m.

00:30:53.000 Eastern last night, we knew the results in Florida.

00:30:56.000 And that's why there was a lot of feeling in the Republican side of the aisle.

00:30:58.000 I mean, we were covering it live last night at Daily Wire.

00:31:00.000 Plus, there was a feeling that this might be a red wave.

00:31:04.000 But it turns out it was not a red wave.

00:31:05.000 It was just that Florida Republicans know what they are doing.

00:31:07.000 And Ron DeSantis is an excellent candidate who is good at governing and then does the culture war issues, has the icing on the cake.

00:31:13.000 Wipeout for Democrats in Florida.

00:31:15.000 Absolute wipeout.

00:31:17.000 On every possible level, a wipeout.

00:31:18.000 I mean, let's take a look at some of these results.

00:31:22.000 Let's start with the governor's race.

00:31:25.000 This was supposed to be a relatively close race when this thing first started.

00:31:29.000 Recall, Ron DeSantis won his last race for governor against Andrew Gillum, a gay meth addict.

00:31:35.000 He won that race by 30,000 votes.

00:31:37.000 3-0-thousand.

00:31:40.000 In a state that has, you know, 7 million votes per election, 6, 7, 8 million votes per election, he won by 30,000 votes, 0.4% of the vote.

00:31:49.000 In this particular election, Ron DeSantis won 59% of the vote.

00:31:53.000 59% of the vote.

00:31:54.000 59%.

00:31:56.000 59%.

00:31:57.000 So he went from winning by 0.4% of the vote to winning by one bajillion votes.

00:32:05.000 The numbers don't exist anymore.

00:32:07.000 We've run beyond the scope of actual mathematics in terms of how big this victory was for Ron DeSantis.

00:32:11.000 59.4% of the vote for Ron DeSantis, he beat Charlie Crist last night like a rug.

00:32:17.000 He beat him by 1.5 million votes.

00:32:18.000 4.6 million to 3.1 million.

00:32:19.000 vote, 4.6 million to 3.1 million.

00:32:23.000 So from a 30,000 vote victory to a 1.5 million vote victory four years later.

00:32:29.000 That is evidence of organization on the ground.

00:32:31.000 That is evidence of excellent governance.

00:32:33.000 That is evidence that you can convert independence to your own side.

00:32:36.000 It is evidence that you have turned a purple state into a bright red, blazing red state.

00:32:41.000 Tennessee, Utah-like red state.

00:32:44.000 This state is not on the board for Democrats, and that is because a good Republican, there is no substitute for good candidates who are good at their jobs and engage less in the culture war crazy than they do in the actual governance of their state.

00:32:57.000 And certainly don't engage in stupid issues that are going to be counterproductive.

00:33:01.000 Ron DeSantis is a culture warrior, no question.

00:33:02.000 He will fight critical race theory.

00:33:04.000 He will fight woke.

00:33:05.000 In his victory speech last night, he said that Florida is where woke comes to die.

00:33:09.000 He is correct.

00:33:10.000 Here is DeSantis.

00:33:12.000 We have embraced freedom.

00:33:14.000 We have maintained law and order.

00:33:17.000 We have protected the rights of parents.

00:33:20.000 We have respected our taxpayers.

00:33:23.000 And we reject woke ideology.

00:33:30.000 We fight the woke in the legislature.

00:33:33.000 We fight the woke in the schools.

00:33:35.000 We fight the woke in the corporations.

00:33:37.000 We will never ever surrender to the woke mob.

00:33:41.000 Florida is where woke goes to die.

00:33:45.000 Okay, so, yes, he fights the woke.

00:33:46.000 Also, he's really good at being a governor.

00:33:49.000 You can do both those things.

00:33:50.000 So there are a lot of people on my side of the aisle, a lot of Republicans, a lot of conservatives, they're like, why can't Republicans message on this stuff?

00:33:55.000 The answer is, because again, don't let the icing be the cake.

00:33:58.000 You can't have the cake without the icing.

00:34:00.000 Otherwise, it's not a very good cake.

00:34:02.000 But, you can also not have the, the icing without the cake is nothing.

00:34:05.000 The icing without the cake is Don Balduck.

00:34:07.000 The icing without the cake is Doug Mastriano.

00:34:09.000 The icing with the cake is Ron DeSantis.

00:34:12.000 And the cake without the icing is Mike DeWine.

00:34:14.000 Okay, so what that sounds like, actually, is that the main thing Republicans have to do is focus on not alienating every voter in sight by embracing silliness, by embracing things that the American voters do not care about.

00:34:27.000 There's a lot of talk in the election lead up about how Democrats were ignoring what the voters wanted.

00:34:30.000 And that's true.

00:34:32.000 Many Democrats did ignore what the voters wanted.

00:34:35.000 But as it turns out, the Joe Biden pitch, and Joe Biden is going to be the nominee now for the Democrats in 2024.

00:34:40.000 We'll get to the impact on Biden and Trump in a second.

00:34:45.000 Joe Biden pushing for the democracy talk.

00:34:47.000 It turns out that wasn't about threats to democracy.

00:34:49.000 It was about, do you trust these Republicans to govern?

00:34:52.000 And when Republicans act as though they can't be trusted with governance, they don't win.

00:34:56.000 And when they can be trusted with governance, they win and they win enormous.

00:34:59.000 They win huge.

00:35:00.000 We'll get some more on this in just one second.

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00:36:41.000 If you look at a map of Florida, the results here are absolutely astonishing.

00:36:49.000 They are.

00:36:49.000 I mean, I'm looking right now at the map of Florida and how it went in this gubernatorial race.

00:36:54.000 And Ron DeSantis won Miami-Dade.

00:36:59.000 You can't win Miami-Dade if you're a Republican.

00:37:01.000 That's not possible.

00:37:03.000 He won Miami-Dade.

00:37:04.000 If you look at the exit polling, Ron DeSantis won Hispanics outright.

00:37:10.000 Outright.

00:37:12.000 The GOP picked up several congressional seats in Florida.

00:37:17.000 National Republicans saw Tampa Bay's open seats, according to the Tampa Bay Times, as a path toward reclaiming control of Congress.

00:37:23.000 And they achieved it.

00:37:24.000 Florida is now sending 20 Republicans to the U.S.

00:37:26.000 House of Representatives.

00:37:27.000 That is an increase of four.

00:37:29.000 Remember, Republicans needed to pick up five in order to take the House.

00:37:32.000 So Florida alone almost put the Republicans over the top.

00:37:35.000 The rest of the country combined is going to provide the Republicans with maybe another four to ten seats.

00:37:41.000 Combined.

00:37:43.000 The state of Florida carried it last night.

00:37:44.000 It was Lee Zeldin in New York winning those House seats.

00:37:47.000 That's three.

00:37:48.000 And then it is the Republicans in Florida picking up four.

00:37:51.000 That is seven.

00:37:52.000 So that means that more than half of the Republican gains, in all likelihood, are going to come from those two states alone, with competent people running, Florida and New York.

00:38:03.000 And by the way, Again, it wasn't just DeSantis.

00:38:06.000 It was up and down the ballot.

00:38:08.000 First of all, Charlie Crist had to concede because Charlie Crist has now run for every single party and there are no more parties for him.

00:38:13.000 He's now looking for a pool party to run to because just bad night for Charlie Crist.

00:38:17.000 There was Crist acknowledging that, in fact, his strategy of alienating every independent and Republican voter was a bad strategy.

00:38:24.000 Thank you.

00:38:25.000 Thank you.

00:38:26.000 First and foremost, I want to give a good congratulations to Governor DeSantis on his re-election.

00:38:33.000 That's okay.

00:38:36.000 That's okay, guys.

00:38:37.000 That's okay.

00:38:38.000 I'm just going to read you a couple stats on how well DeSantis did last night.

00:38:42.000 The Cuban vote in 2018 won 67% for Ron DeSantis.

00:38:45.000 There are a bunch of people out there saying, well, when he wins the Hispanic vote, you just mean Cubans.

00:38:50.000 Nope.

00:38:51.000 That is not what I mean.

00:38:52.000 He won 67% of the Cuban vote in Florida in 2018.

00:38:55.000 He won 68% of the Cuban vote in Florida in 2022.

00:38:58.000 So Cubans voted Republican like they always vote Republican in the state of Florida.

00:39:02.000 The Puerto Rican vote in 2018 went 34% for Ron DeSantis.

00:39:06.000 It went 55% for Ron DeSantis.

00:39:09.000 That is a shift of 21 points among Puerto Rican voters in the state of Florida.

00:39:13.000 Good governance.

00:39:14.000 Ain't no substitute for it.

00:39:15.000 Among other Latinos, 34% voted for the Republican in 2018.

00:39:17.000 50%, 5-0% voted for Ron DeSantis in 2022.

00:39:19.000 Candidate quality.

00:39:20.000 50%, 5-0% voted for Ron DeSantis in 2022.

00:39:25.000 Candidate quality, gubernatorial standards, being disciplined in your races.

00:39:31.000 You know, the things that make up, like, the basic mathematics of politics.

00:39:34.000 They still apply.

00:39:36.000 Yelling at the sky is not, in fact, a strategy.

00:39:39.000 And if Republicans wish to actually win broad victories over the course of the next decade or so, they're going to need to put away the childish playthings with which they have been preoccupied.

00:39:49.000 I'm talking about the House leadership.

00:39:50.000 I'm talking about the presidential leadership.

00:39:53.000 That means that discipline needs to be in order here.

00:39:57.000 There will be some opportunity for Republicans.

00:39:59.000 There are going to be some silver linings here, which we'll get to in just one second.

00:40:04.000 But here's the bottom line.

00:40:05.000 When it comes to Florida, Florida broke the Democrats.

00:40:09.000 It broke them.

00:40:09.000 David Plouffe was an Obama advisor in 2008.

00:40:13.000 Plouffe, he admitted that the Obama coalition in Florida is completely dead.

00:40:16.000 It does not exist anymore.

00:40:17.000 Here he was last night.

00:40:19.000 Marco Rubio is up 11 points.

00:40:21.000 I'll paraphrase Carlos's question there, David Plouffe.

00:40:24.000 I mean, what is the lesson you are drawing here in terms of the Hispanic vote?

00:40:28.000 How alarmed should Democrats be?

00:40:29.000 Well, in Florida it's catastrophic.

00:40:31.000 So obviously we saw great erosion in 20 in the presidential race.

00:40:35.000 And let's remember, Barack Obama won in 2012, basically tied the Cuban vote, got over 70% of the Hispanic vote.

00:40:41.000 So the Obama coalition in Florida is gone.

00:40:44.000 We've got to rebuild it now.

00:40:45.000 Okay, the GOP flipped.

00:40:46.000 Miami-Dade, which Hillary won by 29 points, it flipped.

00:40:49.000 Hillsborough County, Duval County, Pinellas County, that's Charlie Crisholm County, Palm Beach County, flipped.

00:40:56.000 Osceola, flipped.

00:40:58.000 All of these went Democrat.

00:40:59.000 Florida has 67 counties.

00:41:02.000 The number that stayed completely blue?

00:41:05.000 Five.

00:41:06.000 62 of the 67 Florida counties went Republican last night.

00:41:10.000 So again, what exactly happened?

00:41:13.000 Florida is governed like it ought to be governed, which is why you saw the crowd chanting at Ron DeSantis last night, two more years, which was very funny.

00:41:20.000 I will admit that was very, very funny.

00:41:22.000 Today, after four years, the people have delivered their verdict.

00:41:29.000 Freedom is here to stay!

00:41:29.000 is here to stay.

00:41:48.000 Thank you.

00:41:51.000 Now, thanks to the overwhelming support of the people of Florida, we not only won election, we have rewritten the political map.

00:42:02.000 This is correct.

00:42:03.000 This is right.

00:42:05.000 Thank you for honoring us with a win for the ages.

00:42:11.000 That's absolutely right.

00:42:12.000 Okay, so here's the question for Republicans.

00:42:13.000 Would you like to win like Florida won?

00:42:16.000 Or would you like the rest of the map last night?

00:42:18.000 Was the rest of the map good for you?

00:42:19.000 Did you enjoy that?

00:42:20.000 You smoking a cigarette this morning after how the rest of the map went for Republicans?

00:42:24.000 I wasn't.

00:42:25.000 I'm pissed.

00:42:26.000 I'm enraged.

00:42:28.000 There is no way that Joseph R. Biden, a person who died several years ago, should have earned the single best Democratic in power party performance since 2002.

00:42:41.000 That should not have happened.

00:42:43.000 None of that should have happened.

00:42:44.000 Something went deeply wrong.

00:42:47.000 Something went deeply wrong in the rest of the country that didn't go wrong in Florida.

00:42:49.000 Republicans might be wise at this point to take a look at the Florida model and say, how do we expand that out?

00:42:54.000 What should we do?

00:42:56.000 What can we learn from that?

00:42:58.000 How do we do that everywhere?

00:43:01.000 And maybe the answer isn't all that tough.

00:43:03.000 Maybe the answer is, as I said before, put away the distractions.

00:43:07.000 Put away the sillinesses.

00:43:09.000 Be serious with the American people.

00:43:11.000 The American people are crying out for seriousness.

00:43:13.000 They're not getting serious governance from the Democrats.

00:43:15.000 They showed last night they don't love the Democrats.

00:43:17.000 It wasn't like the Democrats walked away with a clean sweep, did amazing, blew out the Republicans, massive, nothing like that.

00:43:23.000 What the American people said last night is they looked at the parties, and aside from Florida, they basically went... That is the result.

00:43:31.000 The result is...

00:43:34.000 Because they keep saying to the Republicans, be sane.

00:43:36.000 And then to the Democrats, be sane.

00:43:39.000 And neither party seems to be able to be sane.

00:43:41.000 So let's talk about what this means for the Democratic Party going forward and the Republican Party going forward.

00:43:46.000 Let's start with the Republican Party because I want to save the silver linings so that we can talk about some happy stuff in a little bit.

00:43:52.000 But first, let's talk about what this means for Donald Trump.

00:43:55.000 In the last moments of the election, right before the election, he decided that he was going to start sounding off about how he was running again in 2024.

00:44:01.000 That does not help.

00:44:02.000 It turns out that the exit polls show that Donald Trump is wildly unpopular with Americans.

00:44:06.000 I'm sorry to break it to folks.

00:44:07.000 Donald Trump is not a wildly popular figure outside of about one-third of Americans.

00:44:11.000 About one-third of Americans love the guy, and the other two-thirds of Americans are not super happy with him.

00:44:15.000 I would say one-third of Americans love him.

00:44:18.000 I would say 45% of Americans cannot stand him.

00:44:20.000 And then there are people in the middle who are really not particularly happy with Trump.

00:44:23.000 They don't hate him beyond cancer, but they aren't particularly, this is what the exit polls showed.

00:44:27.000 Exit polls last night, 37% favorable rating of Trump.

00:44:32.000 He hasn't been president for two years, 37% favorable rating.

00:44:36.000 So, when you come out days before the election and you rip Ron DeSantis, who just won a 20 point victory in Florida, as Ron DeSanctimonious, people react to that and they don't love it.

00:44:48.000 When you say on election day, as Donald Trump literally did yesterday, when you say that Ron DeSantis better not run against me because I have so much dirt on him, I know him better than anyone except perhaps his own wife, is that like a smart move, politically speaking?

00:45:02.000 Is that a good strategy or is that a very, very stupid strategy that seems rather narcissistic when you are trying to lead your party to the victory?

00:45:08.000 Here's the question.

00:45:09.000 Is Donald Trump the leader of the Republican Party or is Donald Trump just Donald Trump?

00:45:14.000 And if he's just Donald Trump, you can love the guy.

00:45:16.000 If he's the guy who wins the primaries, you can vote for the guy.

00:45:18.000 I voted for him last time around.

00:45:20.000 But is that the person you want leading the party?

00:45:22.000 Because there is a giant leadership vacuum.

00:45:24.000 Who's the leader of the Republican Party right now?

00:45:25.000 Is it Kevin McCarthy?

00:45:27.000 Hmm?

00:45:28.000 You think it is?

00:45:29.000 I don't think so.

00:45:30.000 I don't see that as a leadership class at the top of the Republican Party in any way, shape, or form.

00:45:34.000 Donald Trump certainly is not the leader of the Republican Party.

00:45:36.000 He is not.

00:45:37.000 Not because he's not de facto a leading figure who is a Republican, but because his priority is not the Republican Party.

00:45:44.000 If you are the coach of the Baltimore Ravens, And you go out there every single week, and you don't actually do much coaching.

00:45:51.000 You just kind of stand on the sidelines, and you just point at people who make mistakes, like, that guy's terrible.

00:45:55.000 I can't believe him.

00:45:56.000 He just won't do what I say.

00:45:57.000 And then your team keeps losing.

00:46:00.000 At a certain point, people might say, maybe that coach isn't amazing.

00:46:02.000 He's not amazing.

00:46:03.000 Like, he is the coach, but he's not very good at being, or maybe that's not his priority.

00:46:07.000 Maybe his priority is the ad deal.

00:46:08.000 Maybe his priority is getting ready for his next job.

00:46:11.000 We don't know.

00:46:12.000 But if you are looking at what Donald Trump, his impact was on this election, it was not minor.

00:46:18.000 His handpicked candidates did poorly last night.

00:46:20.000 Blake Masters in Arizona, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Don Balding in New Hampshire.

00:46:27.000 All these people did not do well.

00:46:29.000 They did not do well.

00:46:32.000 I mean, there are several reasons why Donald Trump's impact on the election is going to have negative ramifications for Trump 2024.

00:46:39.000 Number one, if he announces next week, you think everybody's in a good mood?

00:46:43.000 So Donald Trump has operated on sort of a theory of unfalsifiability thus far.

00:46:47.000 So yesterday he was interviewed by News Nation and he was asked, so depending on how the election does, should you get credit or should you get blame?

00:46:56.000 And he gave a typical Trumpian answer.

00:46:58.000 I'm going to say that I think this is half tongue-in-cheek, but then he goes on and it's not quite half tongue-in-cheek.

00:47:04.000 Here's what he had to say.

00:47:05.000 You've endorsed more than 330 candidates this election cycle.

00:47:10.000 Tonight, win or lose, the results for Republicans, how much of that will be because of Donald Trump?

00:47:18.000 Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit, and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all.

00:47:23.000 Okay.

00:47:25.000 Okay, and then he continued along those lines, and he said, I shouldn't be blamed at all, and I won't be that way, but really, I deserve all the credit.

00:47:33.000 That's what I deserve, is all the credit.

00:47:35.000 Donald Trump raised in excess of $100 million in this campaign because of all the mailers and all the rest.

00:47:41.000 He spent $15 million in this campaign.

00:47:44.000 Mitch McConnell, who the base is very angry at and who Donald Trump is very angry at, spent $234 million from the Senate leadership pack in this particular election cycle.

00:47:55.000 Donald Trump got a bunch of people nominated and then he stopped cutting them checks.

00:47:58.000 He nominated Mehmet Oz.

00:48:01.000 Trump's endorsement was Mehmet Oz nomination in Pennsylvania.

00:48:05.000 He nominated Mehmet Oz because he thought that Mehmet Oz was good on TV.

00:48:09.000 Carrie Lake probably won the nomination in Arizona because Donald Trump endorsed, because again, she was good on TV.

00:48:14.000 He endorsed Herschel Walker because Herschel Walker is a famous person.

00:48:19.000 These are not good reasons to nominate candidates.

00:48:22.000 And then he proceeded not to give them any money.

00:48:26.000 This is not a strategy for victory.

00:48:29.000 And everyone knows this.

00:48:33.000 We're now saying the quiet part out loud.

00:48:35.000 Donald Trump was a drag on this election cycle for Republicans.

00:48:39.000 He was.

00:48:40.000 There ain't no two ways about it.

00:48:42.000 Again, you can love what he did as president.

00:48:43.000 You can think that he has magic skills in politics.

00:48:46.000 He does.

00:48:46.000 I mean, the guy went from nothing to being the president of the United States, politically speaking.

00:48:50.000 That does not mean that since being president, he has been anything but a net drag on Republicans.

00:48:55.000 Show me the victories.

00:48:56.000 Show me the victories.

00:48:57.000 Trump's whole thing is, I'm a winner.

00:49:00.000 Since the election of 2020, he lost the election in 2020.

00:49:04.000 He then proceeded to lose Republicans two Senate seats in Georgia, losing them the majority.

00:49:08.000 And now he is largely responsible for the nomination of a bevy of candidates in the House and in the Senate who wildly underperformed, and the governorships who wildly underperformed.

00:49:18.000 And then his take is, it's not me.

00:49:20.000 Don't blame me.

00:49:20.000 It's not my fault.

00:49:22.000 Well, here's the thing, dude.

00:49:24.000 If you're going to be the leader, then the buck stops somewhere.

00:49:28.000 At some point, the Republican Party is going to have to make a decision.

00:49:32.000 Do they wish to be tied to Donald Trump's obsession with election 2020?

00:49:38.000 Is that the thing that they really want?

00:49:39.000 Donald Trump in the middle of this election cycle, he went to, first of all, he goes to Ohio and he says to JD Vance, JD's kissing my ass for my endorsement.

00:49:46.000 He's the only reason that he's the only reason that I'm the only reason he's going to win.

00:49:50.000 Well, no, that's not true.

00:49:51.000 And then in the middle of the election, he's calling up Blake Massey.

00:49:53.000 Why wouldn't you deny the election even more strongly?

00:49:56.000 You want you want the the less you think that I'm just going after Trump unfairly that Here is Donald Trump's actual reaction to the election last night.

00:50:06.000 Now, a normal reaction by anyone who believes in conservative principles would be, man, we sucked last night.

00:50:12.000 We need to fix this thing.

00:50:13.000 What do we do to fix this thing?

00:50:15.000 A normal reaction to Republicans losing seats last night, vulnerable seats for Democrats, would have been, man, what a blown opportunity.

00:50:24.000 Donald Trump's election reaction last night on Truth Social was almost entirely ripping candidates, some of whom he had already endorsed, for not sufficiently bending the knee to him and then losing.

00:50:36.000 Does this sound like the leadership qualities that you are looking for at the top of the Republican Party?

00:50:40.000 Again, you've got a choice, guys.

00:50:41.000 You can have the Florida governance model, or you can have the rest of the country.

00:50:43.000 You get to pick.

00:50:44.000 At some point, the Republicans are going to have to grow up.

00:50:47.000 They're going to have to realize And no matter how much you love Donald Trump, even if you want to see him as the nominee, no matter how much of that is true, be serious about who you nominate.

00:50:55.000 Treat elections as though they matter.

00:50:58.000 Donald Trump doesn't.

00:51:00.000 Donald Trump tweeted last night, or put out on Truth Social, he truthed last night, quote, Don Balduck was a very nice guy, but he lost tonight when he disavowed, after his big primary win, his longstanding stance on election fraud in the 2020 presidential primary.

00:51:13.000 Had he stayed strong and true, he would have won easily.

00:51:15.000 Lessons learned.

00:51:17.000 Donald Trump's lesson from last night is that Don Balduck wasn't crazy enough.

00:51:22.000 Donald Trump's lesson last night was that Don Balduck should have made the entire election in New Hampshire about Donald Trump losing in 2020.

00:51:31.000 Does that sound like a person who is deeply Dedicated to the cause of defeating Joe Biden?

00:51:37.000 He didn't have a word to say on Truth Social last night about Joe Biden in the immediate aftermath of the election.

00:51:41.000 Not a word to say about the Democrats who are running the country directly into the ground.

00:51:45.000 Not a word to say about the transing of the kids, about the 40-year inflation rate, about the loss of Afghanistan, about the equity at the center of every policy.

00:51:52.000 Not one word about that.

00:51:53.000 But he had words for Don Balda, who he endorsed.

00:51:57.000 He had words for him.

00:51:58.000 Why?

00:51:58.000 Because he wasn't sufficiently, he wasn't sufficiently sycophantic.

00:52:02.000 about Donald Trump's election loss in 2020.

00:52:06.000 He did the same thing with Joe O'Day.

00:52:08.000 Literally, his first reaction to the election was, Joe O'Day lost big.

00:52:12.000 Make America great again.

00:52:15.000 Now, is this the way that America gets made great again?

00:52:18.000 If you cared about Trump's agenda, you know, his actual agenda, the things he did, the reasons I voted for him in 2020, the things he did, the conservative Supreme Court justices, the lowering of the taxes, the lowering of the regulations, the historically good economy, the moving of the embassy to Jerusalem, peace in the Middle East, if those are the things you liked, if you think that's the stuff that made America great again under Donald Trump, do you think that what makes America great again Is Michael Bennett the Democrat being elected Senator in Colorado?

00:52:46.000 Is that what you think makes America great again?

00:52:48.000 Donald Trump does!

00:52:49.000 He literally put it out on Truth Social.

00:52:51.000 Joe O'Day lost.

00:52:52.000 I hate that guy.

00:52:52.000 Good.

00:52:55.000 Like, that's your takeaway?

00:52:58.000 Again, Donald Trump with an ounce of common sense, an ounce of discipline.

00:53:03.000 I said this from the beginning of his presidency, he would have been almost unstoppable.

00:53:06.000 But each and every day, he's showing that his lack of discipline is damaging to the party that he purports to be the leader of.

00:53:14.000 And Republicans, you have a choice.

00:53:16.000 You can either look at that and say, more of this, more of this.

00:53:21.000 Or you can say, if Donald Trump is unwilling to change, if Donald Trump cannot show that he is willing to change, then we cannot have this be the future of the party.

00:53:31.000 It just can't go this way.

00:53:34.000 I honestly, God, don't see how it could go this way in the future if the Republican Party has its head out of its ass in any serious way.

00:53:42.000 If Donald Trump doesn't change, if we just get more of this, if it's just this until the end of time, what is your strategy for victory?

00:53:49.000 The question Republicans should be asking right now, they should be asking themselves this question very seriously going into 2024.

00:53:55.000 Donald Trump took a Slim electoral victory in 2016 and a 3 million popular vote deficit.

00:54:04.000 And in 2020, he turned that into a fairly comfortable electoral victory for Joe Biden and a 7 million vote deficit.

00:54:11.000 And then the Republicans proceeded to lose two runoffs in Georgia, a red state, proceeded to wildly underperform in the Senate because of a bevy of handpicked candidates from Donald Trump, and proceeded to underperform in the House because too many Republican candidates were getting caught Being asked questions about Donald Trump's views on particular subjects, at least in part.

00:54:30.000 Again, it's not all Donald Trump.

00:54:31.000 But if you're going to make him the leader of the Republican Party, the coach gets blamed when the team goes 0-16.

00:54:36.000 The coach gets blamed.

00:54:38.000 That's how everything works.

00:54:40.000 The buck has to stop somewhere.

00:54:42.000 And if the Republican Party keeps playing this game where the buck stops nowhere, well then the buck won't stop anywhere and they'll just keep losing.

00:54:49.000 You have a choice between that or a model where you take a state that is dead even 30,000 vote victory in Florida to 1.5 million vote victory four years later.

00:55:01.000 These are your choices.

00:55:03.000 Responsible governance with the culture war icing or this chaos.

00:55:13.000 It was one thing when you were getting at least the good governance from Donald Trump.

00:55:15.000 Right now, since he's been president, he doesn't have the power to govern.

00:55:17.000 So exactly where's the good governance?

00:55:20.000 This is going to hurt Trump and it should hurt Trump.

00:55:22.000 This election was not good for Donald Trump.

00:55:24.000 If he had proved himself, if he had led the Republicans to victory, that's typically how politics works.

00:55:28.000 You bear the rewards of that sort of stuff.

00:55:32.000 But you can't bear the rewards and bear no blame.

00:55:35.000 That's not how any of this works.

00:55:36.000 Kevin McCarthy deserves a heavy heaping helping of blame.

00:55:41.000 He's the House leader and his House team wildly underperformed.

00:55:46.000 And Donald Trump has declared himself the head of the Republican Party.

00:55:48.000 Okay.

00:55:49.000 All right.

00:55:51.000 Then you get the blame.

00:55:53.000 Then you get a big heaping helping of blame when things go wrong, particularly among your hand-picked candidates.

00:55:59.000 And it is worth noting here that for all the talk about how Donald Trump picked his candidates and he intervened in the elections, his fundraising juggernaut dropped $2.3 million total in Ohio and $3.4 million in Pennsylvania.

00:56:15.000 Those are not numbers.

00:56:16.000 Those are not numbers.

00:56:19.000 And made the entire Republican Party answerable To whatever he was saying about the election.

00:56:27.000 And the election was not about January 6th, but it was about, for the Republican Party, can you be trusted with governance?

00:56:33.000 Can you be trusted?

00:56:34.000 And if the Republican Party shows that it can't be, if it shows that it's beholden to anything except for the priorities of the American people, that's the only thing that matters, the priorities of the American people.

00:56:45.000 If Republicans don't make that the top priority, if they make fear of whatever political interest group, the thing that they are the most afraid of, the thing that they respond to, Then they're gonna keep getting bruised.

00:56:57.000 It really is that simple.

00:56:59.000 By the way, if you look at the age breakdown in this particular election, Republicans did fine with everybody above the age of 45, and they got absolutely hammered with everybody below the age of 45.

00:57:06.000 That is not a coincidence.

00:57:09.000 That is not a coincidence in any way, shape, or form.

00:57:13.000 Now, what is the impact here?

00:57:15.000 It's been very downbeat here.

00:57:16.000 I'll admit, this has been a downbeat show.

00:57:17.000 Because again, I'm in a real bad mood.

00:57:19.000 When you expect a red wave, and you don't even get a red tide, and you barely get a red trickle, At a certain point, if you go in to pick up your paycheck at the end of the month, and you're expecting a $7,000 paycheck at the end of the month, and instead what you get back is 32 cents, you might be a little upset.

00:57:35.000 So yeah, I've been pretty downbeat here because this is a blown opportunity, and opportunities like this do not come particularly often.

00:57:42.000 What does this mean?

00:57:43.000 Well, there is one silver lining.

00:57:44.000 Well, a couple of silver linings.

00:57:45.000 So let me give you some silver linings here.

00:57:47.000 Silver lining number one, Democrats will not shift.

00:57:48.000 They will not change one iota of anything they are doing.

00:57:52.000 Now, we know that stuff's unpopular, but the incentive structure in Congress is if you get re-elected, it ain't unpopular.

00:57:58.000 Polls are polls.

00:57:59.000 Elections are elections.

00:58:00.000 And if your party somehow exceeds all possible estimates and does much better than expected, then you're going to keep doubling down on this.

00:58:11.000 They're just going to keep doubling down over and over and over.

00:58:13.000 So expect more woke from the Democratic Party.

00:58:15.000 Expect more of the transing of the children.

00:58:17.000 Expect more spending from the Democratic Party.

00:58:19.000 Expect Joe Biden to go out there today and talk about how his entire agenda has been vindicated.

00:58:25.000 His party has won historically large victories for a party that was already in power.

00:58:29.000 How he said that Nancy Pelosi won't be Speaker of the House, but he still is a very durable minority.

00:58:35.000 Expect Joe Biden to take a victory lap.

00:58:36.000 He will be the nominee in 2024.

00:58:38.000 There is no way to oust him.

00:58:39.000 In the lead-up to this election, you could see, I talked about it on the show a lot, you could see that there was a move that was being made to dump Joe Biden on the side of the road.

00:58:48.000 George Will had written an entire column about how Joe Biden was feeble-minded and was going to fall over at any moment.

00:58:48.000 It was coming.

00:58:53.000 He said, take Kamala Harris with you, just sort of sideswiped her.

00:58:55.000 He's like, well, you know, as long as you're going, just grab Kamala and take her to...

00:58:59.000 You saw a bunch of articles starting to appear in major mainstream left-wing publications talking about how Joe Biden was the end of the road.

00:59:04.000 It was time for Joe Biden to go away.

00:59:07.000 That's all over now.

00:59:08.000 Joe Biden will be the 2024 nominee unless he drops dead.

00:59:11.000 Like actually dead.

00:59:12.000 Not like joke dead like I said.

00:59:13.000 Like actually dead.

00:59:14.000 Incapacitated.

00:59:15.000 Fully incapacitated.

00:59:16.000 Not like partially like he is now.

00:59:18.000 Like comatose.

00:59:20.000 Unless that happens, Joe Biden will be the 2024 nominee because who's going to take it away from him?

00:59:24.000 What's their case?

00:59:26.000 He did much better than expected in these midterms.

00:59:28.000 And now he's going to say that it's because he yelled about democracy and said that half the American republic was in favor of destroying the country.

00:59:36.000 That was actually all good.

00:59:36.000 So they're going to keep doubling down.

00:59:39.000 So Democrats are going to keep providing Republicans with the opportunity because nobody learns any lessons in American politics over the last 10 years.

00:59:45.000 So Republicans are going to have the opportunity to get another bite at the apple.

00:59:50.000 Joe Biden is not a good candidate.

00:59:51.000 He's an extraordinarily vulnerable candidate.

00:59:53.000 And he will, again, barring some sort of cataclysmic health circumstance, be the nominee for the Democrats in 2024.

01:00:00.000 That is the big opportunity.

01:00:01.000 That's the silver lining.

01:00:02.000 The weird counter-intuitive silver lining last night for the Republicans is Democrats will keep doing all the things that made them unpopular and give them another bite at the apple, even though Republicans underperformed and did a crap job taking advantage of the circumstances.

01:00:14.000 So that's silver lining for the Republicans.

01:00:17.000 Joe Biden's a weak candidate.

01:00:18.000 He'll be running in 2024.

01:00:19.000 Democrats will keep going on this crazed, woke agenda.

01:00:22.000 They're not going to stop anytime soon.

01:00:25.000 That's an opportunity.

01:00:27.000 The opportunity ain't going away.

01:00:28.000 Republicans have to take advantage of the opportunity.

01:00:31.000 Do not leave opportunities on the table.

01:00:34.000 Now, they did.

01:00:35.000 They left this opportunity on the table.

01:00:38.000 Would it have mattered a lot if Republicans took control of the Senate by one or two votes?

01:00:41.000 It would have mattered maybe in terms of judicial nominees.

01:00:44.000 But in terms of actual effective governance, maybe not.

01:00:46.000 Maybe it wouldn't have mattered all that much.

01:00:47.000 But it did matter in terms of leaving senators on the table that could have provided you the springboard for 2024.

01:00:54.000 If Republicans had picked up 54 last night instead of maybe at best 50, if they had done that, then that would have allowed them the possibility of a supermajority come 2024.

01:01:06.000 But, again, the Republicans are being given another chance.

01:01:10.000 They're being given another chance because last night was not a referendum on the excellence of Democratic governance.

01:01:14.000 It was a referendum on all these ancillary issues.

01:01:16.000 It was the Republican Party being punished for their vacuities.

01:01:20.000 It was not the Democrats being rewarded for their vacuities.

01:01:23.000 But Democrats are going to misread that because everybody misreads political signals in this day and age.

01:01:26.000 Everybody has their priors confirmed.

01:01:29.000 The opportunity will still be there.

01:01:31.000 That means we have to fight harder and we have to be more serious.

01:01:35.000 Nominate people who are good at their jobs.

01:01:38.000 Nominate people who do not alienate, who do demonstrate that the other guys are not vote, you can't vote for them, but you should vote for us because we are going to be serious and coherent in how we govern, and we take our own ideas seriously.

01:01:51.000 The time for unseriousness has passed in the United States.

01:01:54.000 Republicans have the opportunity to learn that lesson, and they should, because if they don't, If they don't, things are going to get a lot worse from here.

01:02:01.000 All right, guys, the rest of the show is continuing right now.

01:02:03.000 You're not going to want to miss it.

01:02:04.000 We'll be getting into the state of the economy.

01:02:07.000 We'll also be getting into how the different groups voted last night.

The Ben Shapiro Show - November 09, 2022

The Red Trickle | Ep. 1607

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