The Ben Shapiro Show - The Trump Wave Builds

00:00:00.000 So, I've said that every election is essentially a referendum on one candidate or the other candidate.

00:00:04.000 And the going assumption, including by people like me, has been that if the 2024 race is between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, that the election will actually be a referendum on Trump.

00:00:13.000 Because Trump is so toxic in terms of the media, because independents generally don't like Donald Trump, because we've already run this race at least one time before.

00:00:20.000 And Donald Trump is not a wildly popular candidate with the American people.

00:00:22.000 His unfavorable ratings are really, really high.

00:00:25.000 But the 2024 race, due to exogenous events, due to the bad governance of Joe Biden, could in fact turn into the 2016 race rather than the 2020 race.

00:00:34.000 And this looks increasingly like a very serious possibility.

00:00:38.000 So in 2016, the entire media, me included, thought that the election was going to be a referendum on Trump, because he was so spectacularly interesting, because all the spotlights were on him, rather than on Hillary Clinton.

00:00:47.000 And what everybody, including me, ignored is that the election was actually a referendum on Hillary Clinton.

00:00:52.000 People would not show up to vote for her.

00:00:54.000 Now, take a look at the Trump vs. Biden race.

00:00:56.000 I was looking at the polls over the weekend.

00:00:57.000 I was spending some time with them.

00:00:59.000 And it's fascinating because the chief pitch for Ron DeSantis vs. Donald Trump for a long time was electability.

00:01:05.000 Ron DeSantis would be more electable than Donald Trump because Ron DeSantis does better with independents because women aren't off-put by him because he hasn't run two races before in which he won less than 47% of the national vote.

00:01:16.000 However, all of the national polls right now have Trump not only within striking distance of Joe Biden, many of the polls have Trump on top of Joe Biden in these polls.

00:01:26.000 Right now, the RealClearPolitics polling average puts Donald Trump at 44.1% and Joe Biden at 43.5%.

00:01:30.000 The last two polls, Economist YouGov and Messenger HarrisX, Both of those polls have Trump up nationally, 44 to 40 in one, 45 to 43 in the other.

00:01:42.000 All the other polls, NBC, Emerson, Yahoo News, those polls that have Biden ahead, have him ahead by less than five points.

00:01:49.000 They have him within five, within four, or within one.

00:01:52.000 And there are a couple of polls from Harvard Harris and Rasmussen that have Trump actually up a lot more.

00:01:57.000 They have them all the way up to six points.

00:01:59.000 What exactly is happening there?

00:02:00.000 The answer is not the wild popularity of Trump.

00:02:02.000 When we talk about a Trump wave that is happening right here, what it really is is an anti-Biden wave in the same way that 2016 was an anti-Hillary wave.

00:02:09.000 When you look at these polls, the thing that jumps out about these polls is not the overperformance of Trump.

00:02:14.000 Trump does not break, as far as I'm aware, 45% in literally any poll for the last month and a half.

00:02:21.000 The real story here is that Joe Biden can't break wind.

00:02:24.000 I mean, he can't break anything.

00:02:26.000 It's amazing.

00:02:27.000 He cannot... The man is stuck at 43, 44, at the most, 46%.

00:02:34.000 Now, if you look by way of contrast at the Obama-Romney matchup from 2012, which is the nearest comp because you have an incumbent Democrat president running against a Republican.

00:02:43.000 If you look at the polling data during that time, Barack Obama never sunk below 46% in the national polling at any point during that race.

00:02:50.000 If you go all the way back to the comparable period in June of 2011, July of 2011, what you find is that Barack Obama was polling in the 47 to 48 percent range.

00:03:02.000 The very lowest that he got any time in the race was in September of 2011 when he was down at about 45 percent.

00:03:08.000 Joe Biden in these matchups against Donald Trump is averaging 42, 43, 41%.

00:03:14.000 These numbers are four to 5% lower than Barack Obama at his lowest.

00:03:20.000 And they are consistently low for Joe Biden, which leaves a question.

00:03:24.000 Where are the rest of the votes?

00:03:25.000 That's a real question.

00:03:26.000 I look at these polls and what you see is, for example, the latest, the latest echelon poll, which right now shows that Donald Trump is up in the battleground states over Joe Biden, 48 to 40.

00:03:39.000 That still leaves 12% of the race undecided effectively.

00:03:42.000 10% of people in that particular poll in the battleground states say they are unsure about who they will vote for.

00:03:50.000 The presidential race overall in that echelon poll has Trump up 43 to 42.

00:03:55.000 It also has an independent like Cornel West pulling something like 4% of the vote.

00:03:59.000 When you add all of that up, that is still leaving you with like 11% undecided.

00:04:04.000 Who are the undecideds?

00:04:05.000 Who are these people?

00:04:07.000 Right?

00:04:07.000 Because one of the assumptions here is you already have an opinion about Joe Biden.

00:04:10.000 You already have an opinion about Donald Trump.

00:04:12.000 One of the great assumptions going into this election is there really is no swing vote.

00:04:15.000 Who are the swing voters?

00:04:16.000 The answer is there are no swing voters.

00:04:18.000 It's not about swing voters.

00:04:20.000 The real question is who's going to stay home?

00:04:23.000 Joe Biden could cause Democrats to stay home because he is a very, very bad president.

00:04:27.000 People do not like him.

00:04:28.000 People are not enamored of him.

00:04:29.000 He doesn't excite anyone.

00:04:30.000 So it is quite possible that Donald Trump could sneak in, not because of a Trump wave, but because of a Biden wave of apathy.

00:04:36.000 You could get the exact 2016 scenario where people in Wisconsin, who were kind of okay with Hillary Clinton, just didn't care enough to show up.

00:04:42.000 Or they were off-put by Hillary Clinton.

00:04:43.000 They're like, you know what?

00:04:44.000 She's probably gonna win anyway.

00:04:45.000 Don't care.

00:04:45.000 You could get an exact repeat of that dynamic.

00:04:49.000 For example, latest Economist YouGov poll, which shows Trump up 44-40 over Joe Biden, 7% of people, I mean, look at that number, 44-40, that means only 84% of people say that they know who they're going to vote for between Trump and Biden, which leaves 16% of the population who don't know.

00:05:03.000 7% of those people say they will not vote.

00:05:07.000 About half of that percentage, 45% of those people, say they will not vote in the election.

00:05:11.000 Another 5% said they would vote third party.

00:05:14.000 Only 5% said they were not sure.

00:05:16.000 In other words, low voter turnout.

00:05:17.000 Low voter turnout in this next election cycle, at least on the Democratic side, could help Trump.

00:05:22.000 There are not a lot of Republicans who are not going to show up to vote against Joe Biden.

00:05:25.000 But there are a lot of Democrats who might not show up to vote against Trump.

00:05:28.000 And Joe Biden, he's been running on the simple, single basis that people hate Trump enough that they'll put him in office again.

00:05:36.000 I'm not sure that assumption is true, particularly if the economy continues to stagnate or slide into recession.

00:05:42.000 The same sort of statistics are available from the messenger, Harris X. That particular poll shows Trump up 45 to 43 over Joe Biden.

00:05:49.000 It shows 21%, one-fifth of all independents, are undecided.

00:05:52.000 Now, are they really undecided or are they just not that interested?

00:05:57.000 What these polls are showing is a huge percentage of the American population doesn't like this election.

00:06:02.000 And the assumption has been they don't like the election, but at the end they'll decide for Biden.

00:06:05.000 What if that's not true?

00:06:06.000 What if they're undecided and at the end of the day, many of them decide, you know what?

00:06:10.000 I don't care.

00:06:12.000 I hate both of them.

00:06:12.000 I'm staying home.

00:06:14.000 That certainly benefits Trump.

00:06:15.000 Emerson College, same thing.

00:06:17.000 That poll has Biden up 44-43 over Donald Trump.

00:06:21.000 9% said they would vote for somebody else.

00:06:23.000 Another 4% said they were undecided.

00:06:24.000 Again, the number of apathetic voters in this upcoming 2024 election is going to be way higher than in 2020.

00:06:30.000 So Republicans said in 2020, how is it possible that Joe Biden, this elderly dotard, this zombie candidate, could win 81 million votes?

00:06:37.000 And the answer was twofold.

00:06:38.000 One, a lot of people hate Trump.

00:06:40.000 But two, because of the pandemic, everyone voted remote.

00:06:43.000 Because of the pandemic, there were more votes in the 2020 election than at any time in American history.

00:06:50.000 The number of votes in that election surpassed by leaps and bounds any other election in the history of the United States.

00:06:57.000 He won, Joe Biden did, 81.2, 81.3 million votes.

00:07:01.000 And Donald Trump won, 74 million votes.

00:07:03.000 When you add those together, you're looking at 155 million voters.

00:07:07.000 If you look back at the 2016 election results, what you see is that the total number of voters In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won 63 million votes and Hillary Clinton won 65 million votes, 66 million votes.

00:07:21.000 That amounts to like 128 million voters.

00:07:26.000 Okay, so you had an increase of 23 million voters.

00:07:30.000 23 million voters in the 2020 election cycle.

00:07:33.000 You could very easily see a situation in which this thing recedes back to the norm.

00:07:38.000 The 2020 was actually an outlier election in terms of voter turnout.

00:07:41.000 If that happens, then Trump has a real shot.

00:07:42.000 And Joe Biden is exciting absolutely no one.

00:07:44.000 It's a disaster for the Democrats.

00:07:47.000 And we'll get to more of that in a second because it creates this fascinating scenario where we really are on a razor's edge in an election cycle where people don't love the candidates particularly much.

00:07:57.000 We'll get to more on that in a second.

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00:09:01.000 So again, use polling data.

00:09:02.000 What they show is that Joe Biden, the real outlier here is not Donald Trump's performance.

00:09:06.000 Donald Trump is stuck exactly wherever Republican candidate has been stuck since 2012,

00:09:10.000 somewhere between 44 and 48% at the very, very highest.

00:09:14.000 The real outlier here is how Joe Biden is performing.

00:09:15.000 And he's performing much more like Hillary Clinton circa 2016 than he is like Barack Obama circa 2012.

00:09:21.000 That is a very scary result for Democrats.

00:09:24.000 And so you're starting to see a little bit of a drumbeat that maybe Joe Biden needs to go away.

00:09:29.000 Because if the only candidate that Joe Biden can beat is Donald Trump, maybe he can't.

00:09:33.000 Maybe he can't.

00:09:33.000 Maybe he's weak.

00:09:35.000 Now the media are stuck in this weird situation.

00:09:37.000 There's no one backing up Joe Biden.

00:09:39.000 Now there's a lot of romantic talk about Gavin Newsom.

00:09:41.000 Gavin Newsom is not a good candidate.

00:09:43.000 Gavin Newsom appears to be slimy.

00:09:45.000 He looks like a movie villain from 1987 in an Oliver Stone flick about what's going on on Wall Street.

00:09:51.000 He's got the Gordon Getco haircut.

00:09:52.000 I don't know who decided to do his look, but it's very strange.

00:09:56.000 He happens to be a not competent governor of California.

00:09:59.000 Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan has a lot of strikes against her.

00:10:02.000 And of course, the vice president of the United States is the single most unpopular vice presidential office holder in modern American history.

00:10:08.000 No one likes Kamala Harris, including Venn diagrams and electric buses.

00:10:11.000 No one likes her.

00:10:13.000 So they have to, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

00:10:15.000 They have to uphold the old man, but they know the old man is fading.

00:10:18.000 And so you end up with stories like this one from Axios, quote, In public, President Biden likes to whisper to make a point.

00:10:24.000 In private, he's prone to yelling.

00:10:26.000 Behind closed doors, Biden has such a quick-trigger temper, some aides try to avoid meeting alone with him.

00:10:30.000 Some take a colleague, almost as a shield against a solo blast.

00:10:33.000 The president's admonitions include, According to current and former Biden aides, who've witnessed and been on the receiving end of such outbursts.

00:10:45.000 The beginning of the piece, this is Democrat ambivalence at its finest.

00:10:47.000 The beginning of the piece is how terrible Joe Biden is.

00:10:49.000 Unstable.

00:10:50.000 Possibly senile.

00:10:50.000 Screaming at aides.

00:10:51.000 aviator sunglasses and ice cream.

00:10:52.000 So the beginning of the piece, this is just, this is Democrat ambivalence at its finest.

00:10:57.000 The beginning of the piece is how terrible Joe Biden is.

00:10:59.000 Unstable, possibly senile, screaming at aides, being vacillating and simultaneously eruptive.

00:11:08.000 Some Biden aides says Axios think the president would be better off occasionally displaying

00:11:12.000 the temper in public though, as a way to assuage voter concerns

00:11:15.000 that the 80 year old president is disengaged and too old for the office.

00:11:18.000 .

00:11:20.000 There's no question the Biden temper is for real.

00:11:21.000 It may not be as volcanic as Bill Clinton's, but it's definitely there, said Chris Whipple, author of The Fight of His Life, inside Joe Biden's White House.

00:11:28.000 But apparently, Joe Biden's temper, maybe it makes him presidential, according to Axios.

00:11:33.000 Again, because there's that, there's that wavering.

00:11:34.000 They're right.

00:11:35.000 They know that Joe Biden is a bad candidate.

00:11:37.000 And so the media want to go after him, but they can't because they're constrained by the simple fact that they also want him to retain the presidency.

00:11:43.000 According to Axios, Biden's temper comes in the form of angry interrogations rather than erratic tantrums.

00:11:48.000 He'll grill aides on topics until it's clear they don't know the answer to a question, a routine that some see as meticulous and others call stump the chump or stump the dummy.

00:11:55.000 Being yelled at by the president has become an internal initiation ceremony in this White House, aides say.

00:12:01.000 If Biden doesn't yell at you, it could be a sign he doesn't respect you.

00:12:05.000 But some Biden aides argue the president's rages reflect his high expectations for his staff.

00:12:10.000 Speaking Biden is a particular skill, they said.

00:12:12.000 It can take years to learn to navigate his moodiness and anticipate what information he's going to ask for in a briefing.

00:12:17.000 Biden defenders acknowledge he can be tough, but they also say he can be more generous and compassionate than many powerful politicians and can make them feel like family.

00:12:26.000 So again, the idea here is that Joe Biden is simultaneously senile, but also super tough.

00:12:32.000 And they don't know what to do with this.

00:12:34.000 They don't know what to do with this because they need him.

00:12:36.000 They need the zombie candidate.

00:12:37.000 They need El Cid riding the horse.

00:12:39.000 They need Weekend at Bernie's Joe.

00:12:40.000 They need to staple the old dead man to a gurney and turn it upright because they think that if they don't, who exactly are they going to have run?

00:12:48.000 And every iota of video that comes out that shows Joe Biden this way, It wouldn't hurt him, except that he's a very, very bad president.

00:12:54.000 So over the weekend, for example, Joe Biden goes to the beach and he takes off his shirt.

00:12:57.000 I don't know what would possess him to do this.

00:12:59.000 Honestly, just a matter of presidential imagistics.

00:13:02.000 It's like precisely the opposite of the image that he wishes to project, which is that he is vigorous and healthy.

00:13:07.000 Here he is shuffling along at the beach shirtless.

00:13:09.000 Apparently nobody noticed he was there.

00:13:10.000 And everyone's like, well, isn't that, that makes him a man of the people.

00:13:12.000 Nobody noticed he was there.

00:13:13.000 You know, I know no one noticed that Joe Biden is there.

00:13:15.000 How often do you look at the 80 year old guy without the shirt at the beach?

00:13:19.000 Like, seriously.

00:13:20.000 We all have a stigmatism when it comes to various types of people walking around shirtless at the beach.

00:13:25.000 Joe Biden is one of those.

00:13:26.000 There's a giant blind spot.

00:13:28.000 So anyway, here's Joe Biden walking around shirtless at the beach to the delight of the media.

00:13:33.000 Here he is.

00:13:33.000 I mean, he can barely look at this.

00:13:35.000 He's trying to sit down.

00:13:36.000 He can't move his chair.

00:13:38.000 He literally cannot move his chair.

00:13:40.000 There he is sunning himself at the beach.

00:13:42.000 No one cares because, again, like, Just amazing stuff from the President of the United States.

00:13:53.000 He's here.

00:13:55.000 Oh my gosh.

00:13:57.000 This is the vigorous, young, cool guy riding in the Corvette that they've been trying to project.

00:14:03.000 He can barely walk, look at this!

00:14:05.000 He can't even walk.

00:14:06.000 Okay, now.

00:14:07.000 In a normal election cycle, if you were doing an amazing job and people thought he was great, that wouldn't hurt him too bad.

00:14:12.000 Because, after all, he's not threatening.

00:14:14.000 But!

00:14:16.000 It's not a matter of threatening.

00:14:17.000 It might be a matter of apathy.

00:14:18.000 If apathy is the unspoken factor in this election cycle, Joe Biden has a serious problem on his hands.

00:14:24.000 And that's exacerbated by the fact that he is a rambling idiot when he starts to talk in public.

00:14:28.000 Here he was rambling about infrastructure the other day.

00:14:31.000 The whole notion of this new ring road that's going to put around, are you going to invest in other nations?

00:14:41.000 Well, it's ended up producing dead in a noose.

00:14:45.000 These countries are in real trouble.

00:14:48.000 Uh, and so, but it requires us to be more responsible.

00:14:52.000 The West, I've been pushing very hard to get our European colleagues to invest in infrastructure in Africa, in South America, and to generate the kind of growth that they should have.

00:15:05.000 I mean, does anyone know what language he's speaking anymore?

00:15:12.000 He's just variously botching topics.

00:15:15.000 Would that matter?

00:15:16.000 It wouldn't matter if you're actually doing a good job.

00:15:18.000 But that's the problem.

00:15:20.000 He is not doing a very good job.

00:15:21.000 We'll get to that in one second.

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00:16:26.000 Okay, so the biggest problem that Joe Biden has is personality driven, obviously, but it is also that he's doing a very bad job.

00:16:34.000 Again, him being non-sentient at this point would not be a big driver, except that people don't like what he is doing with the economy.

00:16:40.000 The numbers on the economy for Joe Biden are just terrible, and there's a widespread feeling that the other shoe has yet to drop.

00:16:47.000 The inflation rates in the United States have not dropped back down to the 2% range.

00:16:51.000 Over the course of the last couple of years, people have seen their prices, when aggregated, inflated by 10, 15, even 20% on some products.

00:16:57.000 They've seen real wage declines in nearly every area of American life.

00:17:02.000 And there's a feeling that things are going to get worse, not better.

00:17:05.000 That right now, we're skirting the edge of the abyss by having the Federal Reserve sort of tapping the brakes by increasing those interest rates.

00:17:11.000 They'll raise them, then they'll stop, then they'll raise them again.

00:17:13.000 Last month, they paused.

00:17:14.000 They're probably going to go forward with more interest rate increases this month because of the surprising durability of the job market.

00:17:20.000 But there's a feeling like at some point, this thing is going to tip over a cliff because if overspending and blowing money into the economy had the predictable result of 40-year highs in inflation, Then what happens when you jack up those interest rates into the 6% to 7% range?

00:17:35.000 Isn't that going to have the predictable result of keeping money out of the markets, getting rid of liquidity, making it harder for people to borrow, and therefore dumping asset values?

00:17:43.000 Isn't that the next logical step?

00:17:45.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, the last mile of the inflation fight will be the hardest.

00:17:49.000 There's good news on the inflation front in store for Americans, says the Wall Street Journal.

00:17:53.000 This week, the Labor Department is expected to report overall inflation fell to about 3% in June, the lowest in two years.

00:17:59.000 Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core consumer price inflation is expected to drop to around 5% in 18-month low from 5.3%.

00:18:06.000 Which, again, food and energy prices right now are coming down somewhat, but that core consumer price inflation is still at about 5%, which is high.

00:18:15.000 Economists think core inflation could have further in the coming months to between 3.5 and 4%.

00:18:19.000 The bad news?

00:18:20.000 Getting inflation down further from there to the Federal Reserve's 2% target will prove difficult if the economy keeps chugging along.

00:18:27.000 Core inflation has proven stubborn this year.

00:18:28.000 Analysts see two big reasons for improvement.

00:18:30.000 The first reason for optimism comes from a slowdown in rent growth.

00:18:34.000 Housing accounts for 40% of core CPI and 20% of the Fed's preferred gauge.

00:18:39.000 So that is reason number one, is the housing tumbling.

00:18:42.000 And also they think used car prices are going to decline a little bit more.

00:18:46.000 But again, there is going to be a consequence to raising the current interest rates as high as they are.

00:18:53.000 The interest rates on the Fed overnight rate are currently at 5%.

00:18:59.000 Last year, they were at 1.5%.

00:19:01.000 If you think that's going to have no impact on investment strategy, you're wrong.

00:19:05.000 As an investor, I'm a person who's keeping his money out of the market right now because I expect that asset values are going to decline over the course of the next six months.

00:19:13.000 There will be predictable side effects to all of this.

00:19:16.000 That's also the reason why you're seeing a recharged bond route that's unnerving investors, according to the Wall Street Journal.

00:19:22.000 Last week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which rises when bond prices fall, topped 4% for the first time since early March, extending a two-month stretch of gains.

00:19:30.000 The yield on the two-year note hit its highest level since 2007.

00:19:31.000 Why?

00:19:33.000 The unwinding of bets that the Federal Reserve's interest-fighting campaign would rapidly cool inflation or even precipitate a recession.

00:19:39.000 Last week's readings on a still-tight labor market heightened worries the Fed would have to raise rates to a higher level than previously expected and then keep them there for longer.

00:19:45.000 While rising yields tend to come with economic growth, they can spell trouble for investors.

00:19:50.000 This is the next step.

00:19:51.000 The next step here is that all of the bonds that people have been reliant upon, they bought into the bond market two years ago, and you see a lot of Silicon Valley bank copies in the near future because all of the bonds they've been reliant upon, if it turns out they can't pay their bills because of the high interest rates.

00:20:04.000 And then it turns out they can't sell their bonds to pay the bills.

00:20:07.000 You're going to start to see a lot of people fall into the hardship of bankruptcy.

00:20:11.000 They're falling into the red where they would have been in the black if the interest rates weren't quite so high, thus changing the math on their bond asset prices.

00:20:19.000 The simple fact is that Joe Biden's economy is weak, and that is a real problem for him because everyone is expecting, as I say, the other shoe to drop.

00:20:27.000 We'll get to the Ukraine war in just a second, because that is the other pillar of Joe Biden's sort of re-elect effort, is look what I've done in Ukraine, look what I've done on the economy.

00:20:34.000 Those are the real two pillars of Joe Biden's re-elect effort, and I do not imagine that that is going to go absolutely great for him.

00:20:41.000 We'll get to that in one second.

00:20:43.000 First, simple fact of the matter, I have four kids, I have a dog, I'm up at all hours of the night, I need Black Rifle coffee in the mornings.

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00:21:51.000 Okay, so.

00:21:52.000 Meanwhile, Joe Biden's big pitch was Bidenomics.

00:21:55.000 Bidenomics is a giant fail.

00:21:57.000 His other big pitch has been, look at our world leadership in Ukraine.

00:22:02.000 Well, there is a problem in Ukraine, and that is that Joe Biden has no actual strategy there.

00:22:07.000 I've been talking about this for a year.

00:22:08.000 He has no strategy in Ukraine.

00:22:11.000 The original idea that we had to provide Ukraine with the weaponry necessary to repel the Russian invasion, not only did I fully agree with it, I fully supported the idea of devastating the Russian military.

00:22:20.000 Russia is a nefarious force on the world stage.

00:22:23.000 Russia has spread its tentacles into Africa, into the Middle East.

00:22:26.000 Russia has been aggressive on its own borders.

00:22:28.000 Russia has destabilized countries that are friendly to the United States.

00:22:31.000 Meanwhile, Russia has threatened countries that are friendly to the United States in

00:22:34.000 Europe.

00:22:35.000 So the Russian invasion of Ukraine needed to be repelled.

00:22:37.000 Forget about all of the internal problems in Ukraine, which continue to exist, continue

00:22:40.000 to militate.

00:22:41.000 Ukraine has deep and abiding corruption problems.

00:22:43.000 Those did not go away just because a war is being fought over there.

00:22:45.000 Undoubtedly, a lot of the money that's being sent over there is being shaved off the top

00:22:48.000 by oligarchs in Ukraine, because that's how things work over there.

00:22:51.000 None of that changes the basic facts on the ground that repelling the Russian invasion

00:22:55.000 into Kiev was a good idea.

00:22:57.000 The problem is once the United States has achieved its objectives in Ukraine and once everybody knows how this conflict is going to end, which is there will be a negotiated settlement in which Russia ends up keeping Crimea and large percentages of Donbass.

00:23:10.000 Then it's just and in exchange, Ukraine is going to get security guarantees from the West, actual treaty obligations from the United States and from the rest of the West to defend them in case of another Russian invasion and presumably serious rearmament of the Ukrainian military to deter just such an invasion.

00:23:24.000 Everybody knows that's how this is going to end.

00:23:26.000 But Joe Biden refuses to actually say that.

00:23:29.000 And the reason he refuses to say that is because he is on foreign policy a coward.

00:23:33.000 He did not actually lead from the front on Ukraine, he led from behind.

00:23:36.000 You'll recall that the Ukraine invasion was launched in part because Joe Biden made idiotic comments like there were certain parts of Ukraine that if they were invaded wouldn't necessarily constitute an invasion.

00:23:45.000 Also on the back of the Afghanistan pullout, leaving an entire country the United States had guaranteed security for in the hands of the world's most barbaric people, Vladimir Putin looked at Ukraine and said, I could probably do the same thing and get away with it.

00:23:56.000 It was a miscalculation, but an understandable, on a sort of geostrategic level, an understandable miscalculation by Putin.

00:24:03.000 The problem right now is everybody knows how this is going to end, but it keeps dragging on.

00:24:06.000 And the reason it keeps dragging on is because the United States and Europeans have failed to take an actual leadership position in a war that they are funding.

00:24:13.000 Right now, they're making the case that Zelensky ought to be leading the negotiations.

00:24:16.000 Well, Zelensky has already said openly to his own people that they are not going to stop until they win back all of Crimea and all of the Donbass.

00:24:23.000 No serious military student believes that that is going to happen.

00:24:28.000 So, for example, the Ukrainian counteroffensive right now is really, really slow going, according to the Wall Street Journal.

00:24:33.000 On a hilltop near the occupied southern Ukrainian town of Polohi, Russian forces set up an observation point that can spot Ukrainian soldiers more than six miles away.

00:24:40.000 Four times, Ukrainian forces destroyed the Murom-M surveillance system.

00:24:44.000 Four times, the Russians promptly installed a new one.

00:24:47.000 Ukraine successfully outmaneuvered Russia's far larger invading forces last year, despite being outmanned, outgunned, and vastly overpowered in the air.

00:24:53.000 With a nimble approach, superior knowledge of terrain, and the efficient use of drones and digital tech,

00:24:56.000 its units were able to repel a far larger army that often seemed lumbering and mired in bureaucracy.

00:25:01.000 That's all over.

00:25:02.000 Ukraine is now attempting to dislodge an entrenched enemy, one of the most daunting operations any military can

00:25:06.000 undertake.

00:25:07.000 Russian troops have spent months building physical defenses that include bunkers, tank traps, minefields, some more

00:25:12.000 than 15 miles deep.

00:25:13.000 In this phase of the war, Ukraine's lack of resources is proving as much of a

00:25:17.000 challenge as the dug-in Russian defenses.

00:25:20.000 Despite the delivery of new Western weapons in recent months, and a promise by the United States on Friday to send deadly cluster munitions in the future, Kiev's efforts to push south through Russian-held territory toward the Sea of Azov has stalled, though Ukrainian officials say they're making progress and have reclaimed a handful of villages in the Zaporizhia and Donetsk regions over the past month.

00:25:36.000 They also acknowledge the Herculean nature of their task.

00:25:39.000 If we kill a whole unit, a hundred soldiers, the next day they bring in another unit.

00:25:42.000 And the day after another, says Lieutenant Colonel Talehin of the Ukrainian forces.

00:25:46.000 In other words, this giant counteroffensive that was supposed to be the prelude to negotiations has essentially stalled.

00:25:52.000 And according to CNN, this is going all the way back to February, Ukraine was burning through ammunition faster than the United States and NATO could produce it.

00:25:57.000 In fact, the United States currently, for its own military, has a serious lack of things like Javelin missiles because we have sent so many over to the Ukrainians.

00:26:05.000 This has prompted Joe Biden to take a bizarrely chaotic approach to the situation.

00:26:11.000 Now, here's what he should do.

00:26:12.000 Everybody always says you criticize, but you don't offer a plan.

00:26:15.000 Here's what he should do.

00:26:16.000 What Joe Biden should do, and what the Europeans should do, is they should make a deal with Putin.

00:26:19.000 They should.

00:26:20.000 They should go to Putin, and they should say, listen, we all know how this is going to end.

00:26:23.000 And we will convince the Ukrainians to sign on to this, because we're the ones with the leverage.

00:26:27.000 In fact, we will publicly cram down a deal on the Ukrainians.

00:26:31.000 And Zelensky will pitch a fit and he'll scream.

00:26:34.000 But here's the thing.

00:26:35.000 Zelensky will like that.

00:26:36.000 The reason Zelensky will like that is because right now he has boxed himself in.

00:26:39.000 He cannot stop the war unless they win every inch of territory.

00:26:41.000 They're not going to win every inch of territory.

00:26:43.000 So he has made a promise that he cannot keep to his own people.

00:26:46.000 What allows him out of that box to retain the leadership position in Ukraine while simultaneously being able to end the war?

00:26:52.000 What allows him out of that box is an outside actor saying that it's our deal.

00:26:57.000 It's not Zelensky's deal.

00:26:58.000 We crammed it down.

00:26:59.000 Zelensky needs to be able to go back to the Ukrainians and say, listen, I wanted to go the whole hog.

00:27:02.000 I couldn't.

00:27:03.000 Joe Biden wouldn't let me.

00:27:04.000 I wanted to go all the way.

00:27:05.000 I couldn't.

00:27:05.000 The Europeans wouldn't let me.

00:27:06.000 And so we had to cut this deal.

00:27:08.000 Zelensky is not in a political position inside his own country right now to play Charles de Gaulle.

00:27:12.000 He can't.

00:27:13.000 Instead, he's going to have to do something else.

00:27:16.000 He's going to actually have to say to his own people that it was crammed down.

00:27:19.000 In order for that to happen, Joe Biden has to play the bad guy.

00:27:21.000 And Joe Biden is not willing to play the bad guy.

00:27:23.000 And neither are the Europeans.

00:27:24.000 They're going to sit there and they're going to keep dumping resources into Ukraine to

00:27:28.000 achieve feet of movement at the cost of probably tens of thousands of lives for years to come

00:27:32.000 because no one has the actual courage to be the bad guy in this situation, even if it

00:27:37.000 means ending a war on the ground.

00:27:38.000 So instead, Joe Biden has decided that he's going to escalate.

00:27:41.000 So Joe Biden is now providing cluster bombs to the Ukrainians.

00:27:44.000 Now if ever there's been a case to use cluster bombs, this would probably be it.

00:27:48.000 The reason I say that is because the real danger of cluster bombs is using them in populated

00:27:51.000 areas.

00:27:52.000 mom is it has essentially a very wide radius. It does extraordinary damage.

00:27:56.000 Right now, the areas that cluster bombs are being used are kind of on the outskirts of forests where there are no civilian populations.

00:28:03.000 With that said, cluster bombs are a form of munitions that the West has been attempting to rid battlefields of because they then lie embedded for years in the ground and stuff.

00:28:11.000 We've been trying to rid the battlefields of this for years.

00:28:13.000 This is pretty controversial stuff here.

00:28:14.000 Here's Joe Biden talking about why cluster bombs are now being deployed to Ukraine.

00:28:18.000 We're in a situation where Ukraine continues to be brutally attacked across the board by munitions, by these cluster munitions that are, have dud rates that are very, very low, I mean very high, that are dangerous to civilians, number one.

00:28:34.000 Number two, the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition.

00:28:39.000 uh... the ammunition that is to call one five five millimeter weapons this is a this is a war relating to munitions and uh... the running out of those that ammunition and we're low on it and so what i finally did it took the recommendation of the defense department to not permanently but to allow for in this transition period where we get more one five five Weapons with the shells for Ukrainians to provide them with a something as a very low dud rate

00:29:13.000 I mean, listen to that.

00:29:14.000 There's one phrase there that is really insane.

00:29:17.000 He's saying publicly, we are low on these munitions, not Ukraine.

00:29:20.000 We, meaning the United States, the most powerful force in world history.

00:29:24.000 We are low on munitions because we have sent so many to Ukraine.

00:29:26.000 Does this bode well for the future of United States military policy to keep pouring resources into a country where there is no actual off ramp?

00:29:33.000 There is no actual solution.

00:29:34.000 And Joe Biden refuses to allow for the possibility of such a solution.

00:29:38.000 Martha Raddatz actually confronted John Kirby of the of the national security staff on the cluster bomb question.

00:29:45.000 I want to ask you why the U.S.

00:29:47.000 has never banned them before.

00:29:49.000 They're obviously a threat to civilians if they don't explode.

00:29:54.000 Why is the U.S.

00:29:56.000 not banning them, period?

00:29:58.000 We are very mindful of the concerns about civilian casualties and unexploded ordnance being picked up by civilians or children and being hurt.

00:30:07.000 Of course we're mindful of that.

00:30:08.000 And we're going to focus with Ukraine on demining efforts.

00:30:11.000 In fact, we're doing it right now and we will when war conditions permit.

00:30:16.000 But these munitions do provide a useful battlefield capability.

00:30:24.000 Okay, but really, the reason we're sending is because they're short on munitions and we're short on munitions, so we are broadening the scope of the munitions that we are going to actually provide.

00:30:32.000 Right?

00:30:32.000 That is what's actually happening here.

00:30:33.000 And Joe Biden has set up a Catch-22.

00:30:35.000 So, there's a big NATO meeting in Vilnius today, and at that NATO meeting in Vilnius, there will be a recommendation that at some point down the line, Ukraine should join NATO, but that won't be today.

00:30:45.000 Now, what's amazing about that particular position is that the position that NATO is apparently taking is that The big strategic issue is that Ukraine wants membership in NATO.

00:30:53.000 Should it get membership in NATO?

00:30:54.000 I don't think it's ready for membership in NATO, but here's the deal.

00:30:58.000 point until the war is over.

00:30:59.000 Right. This is the position they're actually taking.

00:31:01.000 Here's Joe Biden articulating that position, however, poorly.

00:31:04.000 The big strategic issue is that Ukraine wants membership in NATO.

00:31:11.000 Should it get membership in NATO?

00:31:14.000 I don't think it's ready for membership in NATO, but here's the deal.

00:31:17.000 I spent, as you know, a great deal of time trying to hold NATO together because I

00:31:23.000 believe Putin has had an overwhelming objector from the time he launched 185,000

00:31:28.000 troops into Ukraine.

00:31:29.000 And that was to break NATO.

00:31:31.000 He was confident, in my view, and many in the intelligence community, he was confident he could break NATO.

00:31:37.000 So holding NATO together is really critical.

00:31:40.000 I don't think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.

00:31:55.000 Okay, so that's an amazing statement.

00:31:57.000 The reason that's an amazing statement is because shouldn't that be the off-ramp?

00:32:00.000 Shouldn't the off-ramp be?

00:32:02.000 We are going to negotiate an end to that war and then Ukraine can join NATO.

00:32:05.000 But right now he's providing no actual off-ramp.

00:32:07.000 So he says until the war is over they can't join NATO.

00:32:09.000 So we are de facto treating them as a NATO ally by pouring resources in there.

00:32:14.000 But we're not going to get directly involved in the war because then we'd be directly involved in a war with Russia.

00:32:18.000 And they feel unsafe because they're not a member of NATO.

00:32:21.000 But they can't join NATO until they've won the war.

00:32:23.000 But they can't win the war because they have no actual end goal that's achievable.

00:32:26.000 So Joe Biden and the rest of NATO have now set up this bizarre standard where only a continuation of the status quo is possible.

00:32:32.000 So if you're a normal American citizen and you're watching the war in Ukraine play out, you've seen all the Ukrainian flags, you have sympathy even for the position that Ukraine originally had, which was repel Russian invasion.

00:32:41.000 If that's you.

00:32:42.000 And then you're seeing the United States spend literally $100 billion in Ukraine.

00:32:47.000 $100 billion with a B. In Ukraine.

00:32:49.000 And more.

00:32:50.000 And this war will continue.

00:32:51.000 And there will be asks for more funding.

00:32:52.000 And we'll end up at $150 or $200 billion.

00:32:54.000 And meanwhile, you actually are looking at the potholes on your street.

00:32:57.000 And you're saying Joe Biden has no plan to end it.

00:32:59.000 Not only no plan to end it, he's now boxed in Zelensky to the point where he cannot end the war.

00:33:03.000 Because Zelensky is being told that he's the one who has to negotiate an off-ramp,

00:33:06.000 but he can't negotiate an off-ramp.

00:33:08.000 And the United States is saying, we'll do this until the very end,

00:33:10.000 but also we won't let them join NATO, which would allow us to involve ourselves

00:33:13.000 and then end the war.

00:33:13.000 So you've created this absolutely intransigent situation.

00:33:17.000 There's an unchanging situation that has been created by the fecklessness of Joe Biden,

00:33:20.000 refusing to take an actual solution-based position, and instead just pouring money into this war

00:33:26.000 with no end in sight.

00:33:27.000 A war, by the way, that I think has achieved We've crippled the Russian military.

00:33:31.000 Putin is in seriously weak position.

00:33:33.000 Their economy does not exist at this point.

00:33:35.000 What is the continuing end goal of the West and the United States in the continuation of this war?

00:33:40.000 The answer is there really is none.

00:33:42.000 It's just pure cowardice because they won't take the position they need to take with Zelensky, which is, we all know how this is going to end.

00:33:47.000 We'll provide you security guarantees.

00:33:49.000 We'll help negotiate an off-road with regard to Crimea and the Donbass that allows Putin to save face.

00:33:52.000 This has been the case for almost a year at this point.

00:33:55.000 And we're still doing this routine.

00:33:56.000 Does any of that redound to Joe Biden's benefit politically?

00:33:59.000 The answer is absolutely not.

00:34:02.000 Which, again, is why there are now new calls for Joe Biden to get out of the way.

00:34:06.000 His numbers are just too low, and Democrats are starting to feel quite nervous about that, as they should.

00:34:10.000 We'll get to more on this in a second.

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00:36:08.000 OK, meanwhile, while Joe Biden is so weak, there are now open calls for him to step down.

00:36:12.000 There's a piece by Doug McKinnon over at The Hill called When is the optimal time for Biden to drop out of this race?

00:36:17.000 It has now gotten to the point, he says, where I've had a number of Democrats, including staunch supporters of the President, tell me it makes them nervous, uncomfortable, sad, or gives them a feeling of foreboding.

00:36:25.000 Anytime they watch Biden speak in public, interact with guests, walk up or down the stairs to Air Force One.

00:36:30.000 Many I speak with honestly care about the President and want the best for Joe Biden, the human being.

00:36:34.000 They all understand that every person on Earth ages out.

00:36:35.000 It's a reality and finality of life which unites us all.

00:36:39.000 McKinnon says, I don't believe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2024, which raises a critically important question.

00:36:44.000 When would be the optimal time for Biden to announce he's dropping out of the race?

00:36:47.000 A strong case could be made for immediately, like as soon as humanly possible, to give time for somebody else to run.

00:36:53.000 But he's not going to do that because, again, there is no one waiting in the wings who is ready to take up that baton.

00:36:57.000 I know that Gavin Newsom has been pretty openly campaigning for that.

00:36:59.000 He's running ads against Ron DeSantis and all of the rest.

00:37:02.000 But I'm not convinced that Gavin Newsom is ready for prime time in any real way.

00:37:06.000 I mean, he's totally untested.

00:37:07.000 Nobody's asked serious questions.

00:37:08.000 I mean, he's a French laundry, upper-class elitist from San Francisco who's helped govern one of the worst governed states in America.

00:37:16.000 He may be able to do a decent job on Sean Hannity's show, but when pressed, I don't think that Gavin Newsom has a lot to recommend him, which means the media really have no choice and Democrats have no choice but to continue to prop up Biden in the face of all of these onrushing tsunamis of political opinion.

00:37:30.000 Here's Fareed Zakaria trying to do exactly that the other night, praising Biden to the skies and then, you know, just asking about his age.

00:37:37.000 You've often said when people ask you about your age, just watch me.

00:37:42.000 And I think a lot of people do watch you and are impressed, and they think you've been a great president.

00:37:48.000 You've brought the economy back.

00:37:51.000 You've restored relations with the world.

00:37:53.000 But many of these people do say, and these are ardent supporters of yours, the next thing he should do is step aside and let another generation of Democrats take the baton.

00:38:07.000 Why are they wrong?

00:38:10.000 Not right or wrong.

00:38:13.000 Look, to use the phrase again, I think we're at an inflection point.

00:38:17.000 I think the world is changing and I think there is one thing that comes with age, if you've been honest about it your whole life, and that is some wisdom.

00:38:30.000 No, there's another thing that comes of age as well, other than wisdom.

00:38:33.000 Senility.

00:38:34.000 That's another thing that comes of age.

00:38:35.000 But you can see the media trying to prop him up.

00:38:37.000 Meanwhile, they're dragging out AOC to endorse Joe Biden.

00:38:41.000 So that's great.

00:38:41.000 The crazy young socialist, she will endorse Joe Biden.

00:38:44.000 They're stuck here, man.

00:38:46.000 The president's only primary opponents are Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

00:38:50.000 Haven't been any rumors about anyone else even thinking about jumping in.

00:38:54.000 Will you be supporting Joe Biden for re-election?

00:38:57.000 I believe given that feel, yes.

00:38:59.000 I think he's done quite well given the limitations that we have.

00:39:06.000 I do think that there are ebbs and flows as there There are areas that I think were quite strong when he came right out of the gate with the American Rescue Plan, and of course the Inflation Reduction Act was a massive step in terms of our climate agenda.

00:39:25.000 But, you know, there are also areas that I think could have gone better.

00:39:31.000 By the way, the hard left is actually shellacking AOC over all of this, which means the media now have to uphold AOC.

00:39:37.000 So you had Jen Psaki walking around a dock or something with AOC and discussing her plans.

00:39:43.000 MSNBC.

00:39:45.000 If you were not in Congress, because you're passionate about a lot of things, what would you be doing?

00:39:49.000 I think... A bartender.

00:39:52.000 That's the answer.

00:39:53.000 Before I ever even thought about being in Congress, I've always been passionate about teaching and writing.

00:39:59.000 And so maybe I would have been a teacher.

00:40:03.000 Maybe she would have been a teacher.

00:40:04.000 We know what she would have been.

00:40:04.000 She was like 28 when she got elected to Congress and she was bartending.

00:40:08.000 It turns out, you know, it's not hard to get a teaching qualification in the United States.

00:40:11.000 In any case, put aside the ridiculous AOC.

00:40:13.000 The Democrats, again, they have a lot that they have to defend if they defend Joe Biden, including, you know, the whole Hunter Biden situation, which looks pretty ugly for the president.

00:40:22.000 The Biden White House was scolding reporters at the end of the week for asking questions about, you know, the cocaine that got found in the White House.

00:40:29.000 We still have no idea who found the cocaine.

00:40:31.000 Somebody else made the point and it is quite correct that if we're anthrax, I think we'd know real fast, but it's coke.

00:40:36.000 So we kind of know, like, we have some ideas what it might have been and we're not supposed to talk about it.

00:40:41.000 We're not supposed to say, sir, we're not supposed to, we're... Stop that.

00:40:45.000 Here's the White House getting very mad.

00:40:47.000 Why are you asking about the coke in the White House?

00:40:50.000 I'm just asking again, can you just say once and for all whether or not the cocaine belonged to the Biden family?

00:40:56.000 So, you know, there has been some irresponsible reporting about the family, and so I gotta call that out here.

00:41:07.000 And I have been very clear, I was clear two days ago when talking about this over and over again as I was being asked a question.

00:41:15.000 As you know, and media outlets reported this, the Biden family was not here.

00:41:19.000 They were not here.

00:41:20.000 They were at Camp David.

00:41:22.000 They were not here Friday.

00:41:23.000 They were not here Saturday.

00:41:24.000 They were not here Sunday.

00:41:25.000 They were not even here Monday.

00:41:27.000 They came back on Tuesday.

00:41:28.000 So to ask that question is actually incredibly irresponsible.

00:41:34.000 It's so irresponsible.

00:41:35.000 Why would you possibly ask whether an open crack cocaine addict might have left crack cocaine or cocaine lying around the White House?

00:41:42.000 How dare you!

00:41:44.000 Also, as we know, when people lose things, it's immediately found, like, right away.

00:41:48.000 It couldn't be that, like, maybe Hunter left it there on Thursday and then it got found on Friday.

00:41:51.000 It couldn't have been like that in any way.

00:41:53.000 In any case, the White House has a lot to defend, and it's a real problem for them, which is why, according to Politico, Democrats are very worried about a third-party run.

00:42:00.000 Although it would be required to really dump Biden for sure, is a middle-of-the-road candidate who draws votes away, not from Donald Trump, but away from Joe Biden.

00:42:08.000 According to Politico, Democrats are mounting a coordinated mission to kill a third-party presidential bid, and it's coming soon to Capitol Hill.

00:42:14.000 Officials from the progressive group MoveOn.org and centrist group Third Way are planning to brief Senate Democratic chiefs On July 27th, according to an invitation obtained by Politico, it's part of an effort to educate Democrats about the risk a third-party bid funded by a well-heeled group no labels could pose to Joe Biden, particularly if that person is Senator Joe Manchin.

00:42:32.000 Matt Barnett, Executive VP for Public Affairs at Third Way, and Rana Epting, the Executive Director of MoveOn, will speak to Democratic Senators' top aides according to the invitation.

00:42:39.000 The invite tells chiefs of staff dryly the two want to share some information they have on no labels.

00:42:44.000 Third Way has put together research showing that a third-party campaign would hurt Biden, an argument no labels has dismissed, but it's pretty obvious from the polling that that is, in fact, It's also why you're starting to see increasing desperation on the part of many Democrats to get rid of RFK Jr.

00:42:57.000 as soon as humanly possible.

00:42:59.000 Because the fact is that RFK is not losing steam.

00:43:01.000 He seems to be gaining a little bit of steam.

00:43:03.000 So, according to The Hill, anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.' 's presidential campaign announced Thursday the candidate had hauled in $3 million in a three-day stretch alone before the second quarter filing deadline.

00:43:13.000 It brought in an average of $1 million per day from June 28th through 30th.

00:43:17.000 That's an impressive figure for a Democratic candidate seen as a long shot against Biden, but he doesn't need to be a long shot against Biden.

00:43:22.000 All he needs to do is draw 5% of the vote, and it means that Trump wins, probably.

00:43:27.000 Because there will be a few Trump voters who go over to RFK Jr., but there are a lot of Biden voters who could shift over to RFK as well, because yeah.

00:43:33.000 Joe Biden is riding lower than any Democratic presidential candidate in modern American history.

00:43:39.000 Hillary Clinton, even in the election that she lost, was riding somewhere between 44 and 47 percent.

00:43:44.000 Joe Biden is typically riding at like 42 to 44 percent, and he's an incumbent president.

00:43:48.000 Hillary was just a candidate at that point.

00:43:50.000 Compare that again to Barack Obama circa 2012, when Barack Obama was riding the entire election cycle between 46 and 50 percent.

00:43:57.000 He is in extraordinarily dangerous territory.

00:43:59.000 All it takes is a few percentage points peeled off from Biden to Kennedy, and Democrats lose.

00:44:04.000 Which is why they're going in full-out assault on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

00:44:07.000 Now, I think that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

00:44:09.000 says a lot of uncalibrated things.

00:44:11.000 I think that he's messy in how he addresses vaccines generally.

00:44:14.000 I think that when he says things like, if vaccines don't cause autism, then what does?

00:44:19.000 Which is really just bad logic.

00:44:21.000 That's like me saying, if the thief didn't cause the unwashed dishes in the sink, then who did?

00:44:27.000 I mean, there are lots of other plausible explanations, but in any case, that doesn't really matter.

00:44:31.000 For political purposes, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

00:44:34.000 provides a threat to the left, and so Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

00:44:36.000 must be stopped.

00:44:37.000 Same thing with the No Labels crew.

00:44:39.000 Meanwhile, all of this is propping up Donald Trump.

00:44:41.000 Donald Trump is, by every metric, by every available metric, Donald Trump is a very, very unpopular candidate.

00:44:47.000 According to the latest polls, Donald Trump's spread, in terms of approval rating, is around 17%.

00:44:53.000 Only 39%, the same polls from the RealPolitics polling average, that shows Trump beating Biden, has him at like 38.9% favorable, 55.8% unfavorable.

00:45:02.000 The most positive job approval rating numbers for Donald Trump come from mid-June from Harvard-Harris, they had him at 45%.

00:45:10.000 Every other poll has him below 43% and some have him in the low 30s.

00:45:14.000 So, typically speaking, you would say Republicans would be better off running somebody else.

00:45:19.000 But the thing is this, whatever people think about Donald Trump is baked into the cake.

00:45:23.000 And so what's happening right now is that it's not that this is a referendum.

00:45:26.000 Maybe it's not a referendum on Trump.

00:45:28.000 Again, my assumption has been it will be a referendum on Trump because people really, really don't like Donald Trump.

00:45:31.000 Look at those numbers again.

00:45:33.000 And that in the end, there will be some people who come home to Biden.

00:45:36.000 But perhaps that's not right.

00:45:37.000 Maybe all of the net negatives of Donald Trump are already so baked into the cake and people are so bored of it that it won't make any serious difference.

00:45:43.000 It'll just jog the Republican base to get out and Democrats will just shrug because it's just more of the same.

00:45:47.000 That is certainly a possibility.

00:45:49.000 And that's more of a possibility if Trump just avoids stepping on himself.

00:45:52.000 Again, if all the focus is on Joe Biden, Trump is going to win.

00:45:56.000 All Trump has to do is get out of the way.

00:45:58.000 And when he does, it's actually quite good.

00:46:01.000 So, for example, over the weekend, Donald Trump visited a Dairy Queen.

00:46:04.000 And people in the media make fun of this sort of stuff, Donald Trump visiting a Dairy Queen.

00:46:07.000 Especially because he didn't know what a blizzard was.

00:46:09.000 And they say, well, you know, he's an elite, that's why he doesn't know what a blizzard was.

00:46:11.000 But nobody believes that.

00:46:13.000 They think that Donald Trump just says whatever comes into his head, which makes him authentic.

00:46:16.000 And they don't believe that Donald Trump is not a quote-unquote man of the people when it comes to his diet.

00:46:20.000 All he has is Diet Coke and McDonald's like every single day.

00:46:24.000 Donald Trump is a fast food junkie.

00:46:25.000 So here he was at the Dairy Queen.

00:46:29.000 So everybody wants a blizzard.

00:46:34.000 What the hell is a blizzard?

00:46:38.000 And take care of the people, okay?

00:46:39.000 Can you take care of them for me?

00:46:42.000 I will do the blizzard thing, alright?

00:46:46.000 Hey, so there he is handing out blizzards, right?

00:46:48.000 I mean, this is like the Trump man of the people, right?

00:46:51.000 That sort of thing plays.

00:46:52.000 If he does this for the rest of the campaign, he could win, easily.

00:46:56.000 Like, really, really, he could win.

00:46:58.000 Do I think he's the best candidate?

00:46:59.000 Do I think he'd be the best president?

00:47:01.000 No, but do I think that he could win?

00:47:02.000 Absolutely, he can win.

00:47:04.000 He went to the UFC fight in Las Vegas the other night, and he was a big hit with the crowd.

00:47:09.000 crowd here was walking in.

00:47:10.000 So he's walking in, he's shaking hands with Joe Rogan and hanging out with Dana White

00:47:26.000 Dana, of course, is a friend of Donald Trump's.

00:47:31.000 One of the fighters actually came out of the ring to shake hands with Trump.

00:47:33.000 Again, Trump does have energy and Trump does have the sort of glitter that other Republican candidates do not.

00:47:41.000 Now, at the same time, Trump is also perceived as wildly aggressive.

00:47:43.000 And this is, I think, the key to winning the Republican base.

00:47:46.000 So people have been asking, one of the big questions over the last couple of weeks has been, why is Ron DeSantis not rising the polls?

00:47:51.000 Why is he kind of stagnant in the polls?

00:47:53.000 What the polls show is that inside the Republican Party, Donald Trump is pulling somewhere in the high 40s.

00:47:57.000 Those are not actually huge numbers for the incumbent candidate on the Republican side, a person who was president of the United States until five minutes ago.

00:48:05.000 He should be pulling, you know, in the 70s or 80s.

00:48:07.000 So why is he only down in the 40s?

00:48:08.000 And the answer is he's not wildly popular.

00:48:10.000 But he is perceived by a wide base in the Republican Party as the most aggressive candidate because he is wildly aggressive about everything.

00:48:17.000 He also has the advantage of being able to say that if anyone else attacks him, they are doing the work of the mainstream media.

00:48:23.000 The truth is that the mainstream media made Trump and they continue to make Trump.

00:48:26.000 In the sense that mainstream media opposition to Trump made him the president in 2016.

00:48:30.000 Mainstream media opposition to Trump in 2020 made everybody in the Republican Party loyal to Trump.

00:48:36.000 And it also made him almost unattackable in certain ways.

00:48:39.000 Because if you mirror the attacks of the left on Donald Trump, Republican members of the base hate it.

00:48:43.000 This is what every internal poll shows, by the way.

00:48:44.000 I've seen internals from Iowa, and what they show is that even Republicans who are not warm toward Trump, when people attack Trump, they get defensive on him.

00:48:51.000 Because he's been attacked so often by the left.

00:48:54.000 Well, this gives Trump the license to be as aggressive as he could possibly want to be against everybody else.

00:48:59.000 And people don't necessarily like it, but they do perceive it as, well, if he's going to be aggressive against this guy, maybe he will also be aggressive against my enemies.

00:49:05.000 And that's what Republican base voters are looking for.

00:49:06.000 This is why turnout for Trump was so high in 2020, and presumably would also be so high in 2024.

00:49:12.000 So, for example, here he was going after Ron DeSantis in some very colorful terms.

00:49:18.000 Let's give it a shot.

00:49:18.000 We did, I think, two or three rallies.

00:49:20.000 I think three big, big rallies.

00:49:22.000 Thousands and thousands and thousands of people.

00:49:25.000 And they came out.

00:49:26.000 I said, you know, you're going to win.

00:49:28.000 And he ended up winning.

00:49:30.000 And then about three years later, they said to him, will you run against the president?

00:49:34.000 And he said, I have no comment on that.

00:49:37.000 I said, he has no comment.

00:49:39.000 That means he's running.

00:49:41.000 I said, that son of a is running.

00:49:44.000 I got him elected.

00:49:46.000 So I'm not a big fan of his and he's highly overrated.

00:49:51.000 Okay, so again, Trump can get away with that kind of stuff.

00:49:54.000 But if you go after Trump and the Republican Party that way, it just doesn't work the same way.

00:49:57.000 Because the Republican Party and its base have correctly sort of been trained to, in knee-jerk fashion,

00:50:02.000 defend Trump no matter the attack, even if the attack is legitimate.

00:50:07.000 So what about Ron DeSantis?

00:50:08.000 What about DeSantis?

00:50:09.000 Because he's the only viable candidate right now on the Republican side with a shot at Trump.

00:50:11.000 Maybe that changes, but right now that happens to be the case.

00:50:13.000 So what about that?

00:50:15.000 Well, the problem for DeSantis is that the aggressiveness that he is displaying right now is either directed toward the Trump campaign, which makes sense.

00:50:22.000 I mean, they're running against each other.

00:50:24.000 Or it's directed at sort of policy generally.

00:50:27.000 Now, thing to notice about Donald Trump.

00:50:29.000 Does he ever talk in serious terms about policy?

00:50:31.000 Every so often he releases a little video.

00:50:33.000 And the policy wonks.

00:50:34.000 Either love it or hate it.

00:50:35.000 But does it break through to the general public?

00:50:37.000 People love Trump.

00:50:37.000 Are they watching for his next policy announcement?

00:50:40.000 Of course not.

00:50:41.000 It's all attitudinal, right?

00:50:42.000 It's the fact that Trump is by nature incredibly aggressive, incredibly reactive.

00:50:46.000 And so for DeSantis, you know, when he goes on TV and he says things I love, I mean, he's saying things that I really like.

00:50:51.000 Does it make a dent?

00:50:52.000 So, for example, here's Ron DeSantis over the weekend talking about cleaning house of the administrative state.

00:50:55.000 Is this going to generate any sort of heat or light?

00:50:58.000 You also have to bring this administrative state to heel.

00:51:02.000 The bureaucracy in Washington is totally out of control.

00:51:05.000 It's exerting power that is not there for it under the Constitution.

00:51:09.000 And we need a president to come in and really, really clean house.

00:51:13.000 And I will do that on day one.

00:51:18.000 Okay, I mean, Governor DeSantis is right about all of that, but is that sort of aggressiveness with regard to policy going to have any impact on the Republican race?

00:51:23.000 I think the answer is no.

00:51:24.000 The only thing that DeSantis can do, I think, to restore his somewhat flagging campaign at the moment, is he needs to go hard, directly, at the media.

00:51:33.000 And I don't mean that he has to say things about the media.

00:51:34.000 I mean, he needs to go into unfriendly spaces and he needs to clock people.

00:51:37.000 And the reason he needs to do that is because that is what made him popular in the first place.

00:51:41.000 Dance with the gal that brung you.

00:51:42.000 Ron DeSantis became a popular governor of Florida because the media were attacking him constantly and he was going up directly against them.

00:51:47.000 You remember when 60 Minutes ran a bizarre story suggesting that he was being corrupt in his rollout of the vaccines?

00:51:53.000 He went back hard at 60 Minutes.

00:51:55.000 That's what he needs to do.

00:51:56.000 He needs to go on Meet the Press.

00:51:58.000 And he needs to shellack a moderator.

00:51:59.000 He needs to go on The View.

00:52:00.000 And he needs to shellack the ladies of The View.

00:52:02.000 He needs to do those things.

00:52:03.000 Because the only way to beat Trump in a Republican primary is to out-aggressive Trump.

00:52:06.000 Because the common-based assumption of the Republican Party right now is that anyone can beat Joe Biden.

00:52:12.000 Anyone can beat Joe Biden.

00:52:13.000 And if anyone can beat Joe Biden, why not the guy who the media really hate?

00:52:16.000 Why not the guy who's going to be the most aggressive?

00:52:18.000 And in fact, the polls are showing right now, again, the electability argument that DeSantis was making like a month ago, two months ago, they don't apply when Donald Trump is winning in the polls, thanks to Joe Biden's weakness.

00:52:27.000 Ironically, Biden's weakness is actually propping up Trump as a candidate.

00:52:32.000 And so the only way that DeSantis is going to overcome that is by showing that he actually is a more aggressive candidate than Donald Trump.

00:52:37.000 And he can't do that just by saying things.

00:52:39.000 You actually have to go and you have to show, in the face of opposition, that you're going to do a thing.

00:52:43.000 And the widespread perception of Trump is that he is always facing opposition because, in fact, he is.

00:52:47.000 Some of it's of his own making.

00:52:48.000 And some of it's because...

00:52:49.000 He makes foolish decisions with regard to classified documents.

00:52:52.000 Even if the indictment itself is unjustified because of the Hillary Clinton situation and all the rest, he didn't have to steer right into it.

00:52:57.000 But the thing is, opposition always helps Trump.

00:52:59.000 It's the thing he knows instinctively.

00:53:01.000 DeSantis right now doesn't have the opposition targeting him, and he isn't targeting the actual opposition that I think most Republicans feel passion for, and that is the coverage.

00:53:10.000 That is the press.

00:53:11.000 By the way, this is true before Trump.

00:53:12.000 I mean, go back to the 2012 presidential race and you'll remember that Newt Gingrich briefly was leading that presidential race when he started attacking the press.

00:53:18.000 There's a reason for that.

00:53:20.000 Okay, time for some things I like and then some things that I hate.

00:53:23.000 So, things that I like today.

00:53:26.000 So, I do love when justice comes for the foolish.

00:53:30.000 So, you'll remember that Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream put out a statement on Independence Day talking about how the United States needed to give back stolen land.

00:53:40.000 They put out an entire tweet on it.

00:53:42.000 Well, I suggested at the time they should give their headquarters over to a local Native American tribe.

00:53:47.000 Well, it turns out that someone listens to this program.

00:53:50.000 According to Outkick.com, Nohiggin Band of the Cusack Abenaki Nation Chief Don Stevens informed Newsweek he's very interested in getting the land Ben and Jerry's headquarters is on because it originally belonged to his tribe.

00:53:59.000 He told the publication the tribe was always interested in reclaiming the stewardship of our land.

00:54:03.000 However, Ben and Jerry's does not seem interested in playing ball.

00:54:05.000 Oh, there's a shock.

00:54:06.000 They talk a big game about giving land back to the indigenous owners of the land and then it's their headquarters and they're like, not so much.

00:54:15.000 Not so much.

00:54:16.000 They suggested Mount Rushmore should be given away because it was indigenous land, but when it comes to the much more important to the American people, Ben and Jerry's headquarters in Vermont, then the answer is no.

00:54:26.000 So, uh, good for the Native American tribe for calling Ben and Jerry's bluff.

00:54:29.000 That, that is hilarious.

00:54:30.000 Okay, time for a quick thing that I hate.

00:54:36.000 So, Jonah Hill.

00:54:38.000 I'm not a huge fan.

00:54:39.000 I don't think he's an amazing actor or anything.

00:54:41.000 But, there's now an attempt to cancel Jonah Hill that I just don't really fully understand.

00:54:45.000 I just gotta say, I don't really get it.

00:54:48.000 According to the Washington Post, on Friday, Surfa Sarah Brady posted screenshots on her Instagram and accused her ex-partner, Jonah Hill, of misogyny and emotional abuse.

00:54:56.000 In the texts Brady shared, a person whose number she saved under the name Jonah asked her to take down social media posts, stop modeling, and cut off friendships with some men and, quote, women who are in unstable places.

00:55:06.000 She said Friday she hopes Hill's friends will hold him accountable and that her posts were a warning to all girls.

00:55:12.000 Apparently, according to the Washington Post, in one text, Brady posted from Jonah.

00:55:15.000 She says he wrote that if she, quote, needed, surfing with men, boundaryless inappropriate relationships with men, to model, to post pictures of yourself in a bathing suit, to post sexual pictures, friendships with women who are in unstable places, and from your wild recent past beyond getting a lunch or coffee or something respectful, I'm not the right partner for you.

00:55:31.000 I have a question.

00:55:32.000 Why is it?

00:55:33.000 Am I supposed to be, like, deeply offended by this?

00:55:35.000 If you don't like it, he literally says, I might not be the right partner for you.

00:55:40.000 And they weren't, so they broke up.

00:55:42.000 Now you can say that's demanding.

00:55:44.000 First of all, I don't think that much of that is wildly demanding.

00:55:48.000 Boundaryless surfing with men, I mean, she's a professional surfer, so that one seems wild, but what he means is really the next one, right?

00:55:54.000 Boundaryless inappropriate relationships with men.

00:55:57.000 I mean, I think it would be very hard to date a woman who had boundaryless inappropriate relationships with men.

00:56:02.000 When he says posting pictures of yourself in a bathing suit, You know, again, she's a surfer, so I imagine that a lot of the pictures on her Instagram are of her in a bathing suit, but there is, you know, kind of an inherent difference between you surfing in a bathing suit or you modeling on the beach in a bathing suit, not quite the same thing.

00:56:15.000 That seems fair.

00:56:19.000 How many dudes want their girlfriends to post sexual pictures of themselves online for the pleasure of men?

00:56:27.000 Again, that doesn't seem like horrible advice.

00:56:30.000 It seems like nobody should have, you know, friendships with people who are in truly unstable places.

00:56:35.000 It helps bring them down.

00:56:37.000 Brady also shared a text she sent, including a list of all the posts I removed from my page, to which she allegedly responded, good start.

00:56:43.000 She uploaded a picture Friday she said previously took down by the request of a narcissistic misogynist.

00:56:48.000 Presumably that was supposed to be directed at Jonah Hill.

00:56:52.000 But I don't know, like, we've now expanded the boundaries of victimization beyond the normal.

00:56:59.000 I don't actually understand what the boundaries of victimization are if this stuff qualifies.

00:57:04.000 Your partner says, I wish you wouldn't do X. You wish to do X. Does this mean that your partner is necessarily abusive?

00:57:10.000 Especially when he's like, well, maybe it's not gonna work out.

00:57:14.000 I'm just confused by that.

00:57:15.000 It doesn't make a whole hell of a lot of sense to me.

00:57:19.000 Was he possessive?

00:57:20.000 Okay, maybe.

00:57:22.000 Is that something that women would want in a boyfriend?

00:57:24.000 Presumably not, she broke up with him.

00:57:26.000 But I... Like, why are internal negotiations between partners, when it comes to your love life, now subject to public negotiation?

00:57:35.000 If you don't like it, you can leave.

00:57:38.000 He was in a position of superior power over her.

00:57:41.000 And then she did leave.

00:57:42.000 So I'm super confused.

00:57:44.000 Yeah, I don't understand even what the argument is for her posting this stuff in the first place.

00:57:47.000 Presumably, she thinks that this is going to make her a girlboss.

00:57:50.000 It is amazing how being a girlboss shifted from what it was, say, 30 years ago to what it is now.

00:57:56.000 Like 30 years ago, being a girlboss meant being a girl who is the boss.

00:58:00.000 So by this definition, my mom was a girlboss, right?

00:58:02.000 She rose from being a secretary at a corporation to being the executive vice president of that corporation.

00:58:06.000 She was a girlboss.

00:58:07.000 And you know what that girlboss did?

00:58:08.000 She then came home at night and she helped take care of her kids.

00:58:10.000 That was girlbossing.

00:58:11.000 Girlbossing was being a girl who is the boss.

00:58:14.000 Now apparently girlbossing is whining and moaning about how your boyfriend sent you texts you didn't like four years ago.

00:58:20.000 And this makes you a hero to young women everywhere.

00:58:23.000 The more you can claim victimization, he would- he vict- Him sending a text you didn't like isn't victimization.

00:58:28.000 Honest to God, if every spouse, girlfriend, boyfriend in the United States were just to post the text they don't like from their spouse, boyfriend, girlfriend, The myriad texts that they didn't like would be endless.

00:58:41.000 I have yet to find a relationship between two people where no one has ever said anything to the other person that they found offensive or annoying.

00:58:49.000 Welcome to human relationships.

00:58:51.000 So I'm just, it's kind of ugly that this has become the new way that you gain credibility is by years later coming back at your ex-boyfriend and saying that he was super controlling and super terrible.

00:59:03.000 I just, I don't get it at all.

00:59:05.000 It makes no sense to me.

00:59:07.000 And even if you agree with her, I don't see the actual case for her posting this sort of stuff as quote-unquote a warning to others.

00:59:13.000 Who's watching this and going, oh man, you know, that's really true.

00:59:15.000 I really, I'm too controlled.

00:59:19.000 It's just, again, an aspect of a solipsistic, narcissistic culture in which we are all supposed to pretend that everybody is a victim for the claps and the cheers and the clicks.

00:59:27.000 All right, guys, the rest of the show continues right now.

00:59:28.000 You're not going to want to miss it.

00:59:30.000 We will be getting into more cultural chaos.

00:59:32.000 If you're not a member, become a member.

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The Ben Shapiro Show - July 10, 2023

The Trump Wave Builds

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