As America flattens the Coronavirus death toll, questions arise about what comes next. And Alyssa Milano discovers due process. Ben Shapiro's show is sponsored by ExpressVPN. Protect yourself at Express VPN. Use the promo code: "ELISSA" to receive $5 and contribute $5 to OWLS Lacrosse you download the app. Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE so you can receive notifications when new episodes are available. Subscribe to "The Ben Shapiro Show" wherever you get your shows. Enjoy & spread the word to your friends about this podcast! See linktr.ee/TheBenShapiroShow and use the hashtag on social media when posting about the show. Thanks for listening and share the podcast with your friends! Timestamps: 1:00 - What comes next? 2:30 - Where do we go from here? 3:20 - Is this a good thing? 4:15 - What does it mean? 5:00 6:10 - What is the next step? 7:40 - What are we going to do? 8:30 9:15 11:00 -- Where does it stand? 11,000 deaths? 12:10 13:40 15,000? 16,000 17:20 16:00 Is it a good number? 17,000 ? 18,000?? 19,000 or 16? 15? 21? 19? 22? Is it better than 15, or 15, can we hit a peak? Or 16, or 16, and so on? + + + And so much more? & so on... 21, etc.. 22, etc., etc.. etc.. And so on.. etc.. (and so on) ...and so much etc.) (And so on ... ) And so forth... And finally, and finally, and so much... (finally, etc) ...and finally, finally, in the show... & finally, my point? And & etc..) (end Thank you, my ad @ Finally, and our ad & Inmate <) And our ad?
00:00:00.000As America flattens the curve, questions arise about what comes next, the media beclown themselves with a variety of foolish narratives, and Alyssa Milano discovers due process.
00:00:26.000Well, time for your coronavirus updates because once more, this is the only thing happening on planet Earth in the news at all.
00:00:32.000And it's the only thing anybody cares about, which makes perfect sense.
00:00:34.000The United States has passed 11,000 total deaths.
00:00:37.000This comes basically a week and a half after we were less than 3,000.
00:00:41.000The United States is seeing a significant curve in terms of cumulative deaths, but in terms of new cases, we are not seeing cumulative growth.
00:00:49.000It looks more arithmetic than cumulative.
00:00:51.000It's a percentage of the new tests that are being taken.
00:00:53.000We are not seeing a sharp uptick in the number of new cases that are out there, more just an uptick in the number of cases that are identified as we are doing more testing.
00:01:02.000Yesterday, New York saw 599 deaths according to Worldometers, which is the Johns Hopkins Rip.
00:01:09.000Overall, the United States yesterday saw about 1,255 deaths.
00:01:13.000These are not good numbers, obviously, but we are starting to see the curve flatten somewhat, and everybody is sort of optimistic.
00:01:20.000Andrew Cuomo in New York, he said the data are hopeful but inconclusive.
00:01:23.000At this point, here's the governor of New York.
00:01:25.000It's hopeful, but it's also inconclusive, and it still depends on what we do, right?
00:01:33.000These models all have a coefficient of what we do and how successful we are at social distancing, etc.
00:01:43.000And from our decision-making point of view, it doesn't really matter if we've hit the plateau or not, because you have to do the same thing.
00:01:52.000If we are plateauing, we are plateauing at a very high level.
00:01:56.000And there's tremendous stress on the healthcare system.
00:01:59.000Okay, so he has said that the coronavirus deaths have been flat.
00:02:02.000That's the plateau that he is talking about.
00:02:04.000The idea is that if you keep having that number of deaths day after day after day, that's bad.
00:02:08.000Eventually, you want that number to go down.
00:02:11.000The peak is expected to hit sometime later this week.
00:02:14.000The study that everybody had been using in order to determine exactly how many deaths there would be is, of course, the University of Washington study.
00:02:21.000And they had projected that Overall, peak resource use in the United States would not happen until April 15, 2020.
00:02:28.000In New York, they were expecting that this thing would happen just a little bit later this week.
00:02:32.000It was going to precede the rest of the United States.
00:02:36.000They have downgraded, as I mentioned yesterday, the number of total deaths to 82,000 in that University of Washington model.
00:02:43.000Andrew Cuomo says the coronavirus deaths are indeed flat, which is, again, good news.
00:02:46.000I mean, if it were continuing to go up, then that would be a little bit scarier.
00:02:49.000And again, the number of coronavirus deaths, if we were to plateau exactly where we are in the United States, that would be some very, very good news because we are expecting that this thing is supposed to kill some 3,000 people by the middle of the month in a single day.
00:03:01.000And right now, again, we're at about 1,300, which is ugly, but it is nowhere near 3,000.
00:03:06.000Here's Andrew Cuomo pointing out the coronavirus deaths have been flat in New York City.
00:03:11.0004758, which is up from 159, but which is effectively flat for two days.
00:03:20.000While none of this is good news, the flattening, possible flattening of the curve is better than the increases that we have seen.
00:03:34.000Big question that we're looking at now is what What is the curve?
00:03:42.000And we've been talking about cases increase, increase, increase until they don't.
00:03:47.000When they stop increasing, then what happens?
00:03:52.000And that is the real question is where we go from here.
00:03:55.000So what you're seeing from cities all over the nation is an attempt to keep people in their homes that sometimes takes very dystopian forms.
00:04:02.000We've seen people being pulled over in places like Pennsylvania for literally just going for a joy ride, like literally just getting in a car and driving.
00:04:11.000One of the big problems when you have an emergency is that petty tyrants often emerge and then use their petty tyranny as an excuse in order to do really stupid things.
00:04:18.000There's nothing wrong with getting in your car and going for a drive with your kids and then driving right back home.
00:04:22.000I do it with my kids all the time because anybody with kids understands you must do this or your kids will go completely mad, rip all of the Windows off the hinges and start hitting each other with them.
00:04:40.000It has also taken the form of some pretty freaky video in New York City where the police have been using drones to tell people to socially distance.
00:04:53.000Now, do I think that that's particularly do I think that that's particularly effective, having drones that are flying above walkways and telling people to socially distance?
00:05:22.000Presumably not, and I look forward to Judge Dredd arriving to do justice in the middle of all of this.
00:05:28.000Now, the reason that obviously there's the amount of focus that there is on these death totals and on the curve is the fact that The experts keep saying that we can only lower the curve if we continue to keep people indoors.
00:05:40.000What they are afraid of is that people are going to say, oh, it looks like things are all better, and then they rush out of doors and they infect each other over and over.
00:05:45.000So Dr. Deborah Birx, who's of course leading up the coronavirus task force for the White House, she said the death totals could be a lot lower than we were seeing from University of Washington, but only if we work hard and only if we pay attention to the orders to socially distance and stay at home.
00:05:57.000Dr. Fauci and I both strongly believe that if we work as hard as we can over the next several weeks, that we will see potential to go under the numbers that were predicted by the models.
00:06:11.000And I think that is really two things.
00:06:14.000It is the extraordinary compliance of the American people and the diligence that they have mitigated with.
00:06:21.000Because remember, we're doing this strictly by behavior change.
00:06:26.000And as she says, there's not a lot of tracking in place right now.
00:06:30.000Basically, I guess the goal is that we lower the curve again below the point where we overwhelm the hospital system.
00:06:35.000As the University of Washington study shows, that actually is likely.
00:06:38.000We are now likely to not exceed the requirements of the hospital system, actually, as we adjust these totals downward.
00:06:46.000But the question is going to be what happens afterward.
00:06:49.000And listen, I'm all for the hopeful language.
00:06:56.000The problem is that now that the data seems to be showing that we are flattening faster than we actually thought was going to be possible, how fast can we actually get back to some semblance of normalcy?
00:07:07.000Dr. Anthony Fauci also sounds it off alongside Deborah Brooks.
00:07:13.000I don't think anyone has ever mitigated the way I'm seeing people mitigate right now.
00:07:18.000This has never happened in this country before.
00:07:21.000So I am optimistic, always cautiously optimistic, that if we do what I've been talking about over the past few minutes, we can make that number go down.
00:07:31.000I don't accept every day that we're going to have to have 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.
00:07:37.000I think we can really bring that down, no matter what a model says.
00:07:43.000Okay, so everybody is suddenly optimistic in a way they were not optimistic just a little while ago.
00:07:47.000We'll get to what the studies are showing, what the data are showing, and what are the shortcomings of those data.
00:07:51.000Because as it turns out, all the models are basically flawed and everybody knew this going in.
00:07:56.000And what that creates is a sort of unfalsifiable thesis.
00:07:59.000Because Every time the data are adjusted downward, we just say, OK, well, we're adjusting the model as new data comes in.
00:08:04.000And then the idea becomes, OK, well, but you modeled with a certain level of certainty what exactly everything would look like in the counterfactual if we had not all locked down or if we had done sort of partial lockdowns or if we had let the healthiest people go to work or if we had taken the elderly and we had basically segmented them off and the vulnerable and segmented them off.
00:08:21.000Like, we were basing our action on these models, and as the models change, our actions should change.
00:08:28.000But our actions seem not to be changing, even as the models change, because nobody has set out any sort of reliable counterfactual in that case.
00:08:35.000To give a brief example, let's suggest that the United States is experiencing well under 80,000 deaths.
00:08:40.000Let's say the United States comes in at, say, 50,000 deaths, or 40,000 deaths.
00:08:44.000Like, right in line with the actual numbers that you get every year from the flu.
00:08:47.000Now, of course, the flu Those number of deaths happened when we were all going out and infecting each other.
00:08:51.000And this is happening in the absence of us going out and infecting each other.
00:09:14.000And the other side says, well, if we hadn't pursued it this way, then millions would be dead.
00:09:17.000And there's not going to be any way to bridge that gap at all, right?
00:09:20.000Because you can't live in a counterfactual universe because we actually don't know the counterfactuals.
00:09:24.000The models were supposed to provide the counterfactual, but how are you supposed to trust the model's worst case scenario?
00:09:30.000When they're moderated worst case scenario, meaning even if you stay indoors, 100,000 people are going to die.
00:09:34.000What if the numbers come in way under that?
00:09:36.000Well, that sort of discredits the entire model.
00:09:38.000And this is one of the problems that we're going to have going forward, because one of the ways that the experts and the folks who are in charge and the scientists are going to suggest that we stay indoors is, again, suggesting the counterfactual.
00:09:50.000And a lot of people are going to look at the counterfactual and say, right, right, but you suggested a counterfactual like a few months ago, and you said two and a half million people were going to die.
00:09:56.000And then you said, if we all stay indoors, still a quarter million people are going to die.
00:10:00.000And so we all did stay indoors, and 40,000 people died.
00:10:10.000And the answer is that a lot of the experts still know more than the average man.
00:10:12.000I'm not proclaiming that I am an epidemiologist.
00:10:14.000I think it's dangerous for anybody to proclaim that.
00:10:16.000I still think the experts know a lot, but they don't know A lot.
00:10:20.000And they're not being transparent about what it is they don't know, and that actually is going to undermine faith in the experts at a time when the experts are suggesting that we have to listen to them no matter what, right?
00:10:28.000I mean, that's the biggest problem here.
00:10:29.000If you have somebody who proclaims expertise on a subject, and then they're wrong on a bunch of things.
00:10:34.000And they haven't told you where the uncertainties lie.
00:10:37.000It makes everybody pretty nervous about the expertise.
00:10:39.000Sometimes it makes people feel that the institution itself is discredited, and that's a danger.
00:10:42.000It's why radical transparency is necessary, and you need an explainer out there explaining the models.
00:10:47.000You need an explainer out there explaining why we are doing what we are doing.
00:10:49.000But the truth is, I'm not sure that the politicians or the economists or the health care professionals, the epidemiologists, actually know full scale why we are doing what we are doing in the long run.
00:11:17.000I keep harping on that because it's pretty important that we end what is going on right now.
00:11:20.000I mean, Tony Blair of the Labour Party, right?
00:11:22.000He was saying, listen, the NHS is going to collapse if the economy collapses.
00:11:25.000So you talk about the health care service in Britain.
00:11:27.000You can't keep taking out endless debt and then paying for the health care service because what if the debt is not sellable?
00:11:32.000We'll get to more of this in just one second.
00:11:34.000First, let us talk about the fact That there are lots of things in life you get wrong.
00:11:40.000Like, for example, everybody got everything wrong on everything with regard to coronavirus, except for like a couple of people.
00:11:46.000Well, it is very easy to get things wrong in life, whether you're a pundit or whether you're just a person going about your daily business.
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00:12:25.000So even if you look back on the decisions that you made over the course of the past few years and think to yourself, man, should have done that differently.
00:12:30.000There's no reason to get life insurance wrong or home insurance or auto insurance or disability insurance.
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00:12:49.000Let's take a look at some of these models.
00:12:51.000So first of all, an MIT economist is already saying that the curve is basically flattening, which again is a lot earlier than originally thought.
00:13:00.000According to Robert Verbruggen over at National Review, he is suggesting that an MIT economist concludes that the curve is indeed flattening in New York City and that does bode well for Actually, you can see the trend lines.
00:13:53.000The slowing transmission is beginning to reduce deaths.
00:13:55.000In New York City, the number of daily deaths has actually been decreasing Since the weekend, which indicates a decreasing strain on medical systems and reduces worries that hospitals will be overwhelmed with coronavirus cases.
00:14:05.000Now remember, there's a lot of worry about ventilators being, having to be rationed.
00:14:09.000There wasn't, there weren't gonna be enough ventilators on order.
00:14:12.000Well, Admiral Brett Giroir, who is the Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, he says, listen, everybody who needs a ventilator has gotten one so far, right?
00:14:19.000There's not been anybody who's walked into the hospital and somebody says, okay, sorry, all our ventilators are used.
00:14:23.000You're gonna have to die here in the waiting room.
00:14:27.000We look at ventilator use granularly every single day in every single state and down to the hospital level.
00:14:35.000So we have been able to meet and easily meet all the ventilator requirements that have been brought to us by the state.
00:14:41.000No one has not gotten a ventilator that needs a ventilator.
00:14:46.000And as far as we can project, looking at all models, every person who needs a ventilator will get a ventilator.
00:14:53.000Daniel Tenray-Rosari is the author of this piece at National Review, looking over sort of the record there.
00:14:58.000By the way, it is interesting, the focus on ventilators.
00:15:00.000We'll get to the hydroxychloroquine question in just a little bit, because people are still going nuts over Trump mentioning hydroxychloroquine.
00:15:06.000They're saying, oh, it's an unconfirmed treatment.
00:15:08.000Let me explain something about ventilators.
00:15:10.000Once you're on a ventilator, you are in serious, serious trouble.
00:15:13.000This Sunday, we had on a doctor from University of California, San Francisco, and we talked specifically about what ventilator use means.
00:15:22.000He said anywhere from 50 to 90% of people on ventilators will die.
00:15:26.000Okay, so the idea that the ventilator is sort of the cure-all?
00:15:28.000I understand it's the last gasp measure.
00:15:30.000But you know what is not a last gasp measure, at least not to that extent, is hydroxychloroquine, right?
00:15:34.000You start to degrade, and they give you hydroxychloroquine.
00:15:37.000There have not been any clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine.
00:15:40.000One of the reasons there have not been any clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine is because it's basically unethical to have two people in a room and then randomly select one of them to get hydroxy, right?
00:15:50.000Instead, you have to ask people what they are willing to do.
00:15:52.000Informed consent is still an element of clinical trials.
00:15:55.000And you can't actually tell people who are dying, "We're not going to give you this experimental drug that is basically off-label." You can't tell people you're not going to do that.
00:16:05.000So while the media are fulminating over hydroxychloroquine, they are simultaneously suggesting that ventilators are the most important single thing that any hospital can have at this point.
00:16:14.000The fact is, ventilators are important.
00:16:16.000But you know what else is super duper important?
00:16:18.000Coming up with mitigating medications at this point.
00:16:21.000And if that means it's experimental, if that means that the only evidence for it is anecdotal so far, well, the last thing you want is to not have that and then end up on the ventilator.
00:16:29.000The ventilator is not where you want to be.
00:16:31.000In a second, I want to go back through the question of modeling.
00:16:34.000Because again, it's based on these models that we are making the decisions.
00:16:38.000As models change, we need to update our decision-making processes.
00:16:42.000And some of the solutions that have been put forward are just not realistic.
00:16:44.000Like when people are talking about contact tracing in the United States.
00:16:47.000The question is how you contact trace in a country of 330 million people, where people are fairly used to not being monitored by the government.
00:16:53.000South Korea has had contact tracing in place since 2003, since the SARS outbreak.
00:16:57.000In the United States, what are we going to do?
00:17:05.000If you're talking about ramping it up to the point where you have a million tests a day for people who are symptomatic, and that you are then going to contact trace when the number of cases goes all the way down to zero, then you could talk about it.
00:17:18.000I mean, it seems fairly unrealistic that we're going to get to the point where we are contact tracing every single person who has coronavirus in the United States when we have in the United States, at last count, 350,000 cases of coronavirus that have just been identified and tons of people who are asymptomatic, maybe up to five to ten times that number.
00:17:34.000It's gonna be pretty damned difficult.
00:17:36.000So, we'll get to more of this in just one second.
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00:19:15.000Okay, so, as I have mentioned, because the models have been So variable.
00:19:20.000It makes it difficult for people to trust experts when experts say you need to stay in your house, and especially when they say things like you're supposed to stay in your house indefinitely and social distance from your own family inside your house.
00:19:30.000So what we have seen is that the models have been dramatically downgraded.
00:19:32.000So the model that's been getting the most press in the United States is the University of Washington model.
00:19:36.000I talked about this pretty extensively yesterday.
00:19:38.000They dramatically downgraded over the weekend the number of expected national deaths from 94,000 to 81,000.
00:19:43.000They also really, really dramatically downgraded the number of hospital beds they thought would be necessary.
00:19:48.000But originally, they thought that the number of hospital beds that were going to be necessary, that that was going to actually be a lot, a lot higher.
00:19:57.000They thought the number of hospital beds that was going to be necessary, it could stack up at something like 260,000 by August 5th.
00:21:00.000data is actually pretty different from Italy data and also from Wuhan data.
00:21:03.000Robert Verbruggen has a good explanation here at National Review.
00:21:07.000The IMHE model by contrast simply looks at what has actually happened elsewhere in the world during this outbreak and then uses that information to predict what will happen in the U.S.
00:21:12.000how a virus spreads through a population based on a host of assumptions about how easily the disease jumps from one person to another and how often people come into contact with each other under various social distancing rules.
00:21:22.000The IMHE model, by contrast, simply looks at what has actually happened elsewhere in the world during this outbreak and then uses that information to predict what will happen in the U.S. and individual states.
00:21:31.000That means that the IMHE model is a lot more malleable because as new data puts in the curve itself changes, as opposed to as data comes in in the Imperial College model, you have to actually go in and change the factors that are being used in order to calculate that model.
00:21:46.000So when the group released their new predictions, which came out just two days ago, they put out a big explanation, including a salient bit regarding deaths.
00:21:54.000They said, at the time of our first release on March 26, the only location where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan City.
00:22:00.000These data from Wuhan formed the basis of our estimation of the time, from the implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths.
00:22:06.000One of the reasons that they were in fact saying that was a longer curve to peak day of deaths is because China was lying about its numbers.
00:22:12.000They started seeing mass death very early and then it tailed off really fast, which is why what you saw in the updated numbers from the University of Washington model is a quick rise to apex and then a fairly steep decline from apex.
00:22:24.000Since then, an additional seven locations in Italy and Spain with large coronavirus epidemics appear to have reached the peak number of daily deaths.
00:22:32.000With today's update, they say, we now estimate the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak of daily deaths using all eight locations where the number of daily deaths appear to be peaking or to have peaked.
00:22:57.000Yeah, well, China reported no deaths at Tiananmen Square also.
00:22:59.000So it turns out that a communist country is a lying country.
00:23:02.000Also, they dramatically downgraded in this study what they thought hospital capacity would be necessary.
00:23:07.000Originally, they suggested a ratio of 11.1 hospital admissions per COVID-19 death.
00:23:12.000Now they're saying 7.1 hospitalizations per COVID-19 death.
00:23:16.000And that means that what they were doing is they were just multiplying the number of expected deaths by the number of hospital admissions.
00:23:21.000So you saw the rate of death go down and you saw the rate of hospital admission go down.
00:23:25.000And so the result is fewer hospital beds needed and less of a chance of overwhelming the system.
00:23:30.000Andrew Cuomo yesterday, by the way, said they don't have a hospital bed problem in New York City.
00:23:33.000He said they might still have a ventilator problem, but that has not actually materialized in terms of being overwhelmed at this point.
00:23:39.000And in terms of hospital beds, that apparently is not a problem anymore.
00:23:44.000The uncertainty in the modeling is both a good thing in the sense that if the models were certain and right, that'd be very scary.
00:23:50.000It's also a problem because if you are making all of your decisions off of variable models, Then there are going to be a lot of questions to be asked about how well those decisions are being made.
00:23:59.000We'll get to more of this in just one second.
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00:25:16.000Okay, so I'm not the only person who's having questions about the models.
00:25:20.000Pretty much everybody at this point is having questions about the models.
00:25:23.000According to the Associated Press, A statistical model cited by the White House generated a slightly less grim figure Monday for a first wave of deaths from coronavirus pandemic in the U.S., a projection designed to help officials plan for the worst, including having enough hospitals, staff, beds and ventilators.
00:25:35.000The only problem with this bit of relatively good news, it's almost certainly wrong.
00:25:41.000And those are the ones that public health officials rely on.
00:25:44.000NASA top climate modeler Gavin Schmidt says the key thing you want to know is what's happening in the future.
00:25:48.000Absence of time machine, you're going to have to use a model.
00:25:52.000The latest projections show that anywhere from 49,431 to 136,401 Americans will die in the first wave, which could last into the summer, which is a huge range of 87,000.
00:26:03.000So, again, these models are somewhat useful, but they are not extraordinarily useful because they are uncertain.
00:26:13.000They're not great at modeling human behavior.
00:26:16.000And so, and the biggest problem with the model, as I keep mentioning over and over and over with this UW model, is that it just goes until the beginning of August.
00:26:23.000So it doesn't tell you what happens in a second wave.
00:26:24.000And we are beginning to see, even while Italy is flattening, And even while there is consideration being put forward toward the reopening of places like Italy and Denmark, you're starting to see a second wave in Asia, according to the Economic Times.
00:26:39.000The Japanese government may declare a state of emergency this week to contain a coronavirus outbreak.
00:26:43.000Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister, is reportedly set to make a declaration for parts of Japan, including Tokyo, as the number of people infected with the virus continues to increase.
00:26:51.000The news pushed up Tokyo stocks, with investors seeing the move as a positive for containing the outbreak.
00:26:57.000Authorities reported 120 new virus cases on Sunday, so they're declaring an emergency in Japan, which until now had been fairly non-hard hit.
00:27:03.000Also, in Singapore, they have been re-locking down in particular areas.
00:27:08.000They're locking down dormitory complexes because people are coming in and reinfecting everybody.
00:27:13.000So the big question is, what happens when you start to open this thing back up?
00:27:17.000Meanwhile, Italy and Norway are beginning to look at easing their lockdowns after Denmark and Austria became the first two European countries to loosen restrictions as governments seek to gradually revive economies crippled by the containment measures without risking a second wave of infections, according to Bloomberg.
00:27:31.000Italy, the original epicenter of the outbreak, has begun to plan for emerging from the lockdown.
00:27:34.000Selected firms could open in mid-April, according to an official familiar with the discussions.
00:27:38.000Norway may also move to ease restrictions, with a press briefing scheduled later on Tuesday.
00:27:42.000Parts of Italy's agribusiness and health sectors and mechanical equipment companies linked to those industries could be allowed to restart operations, but protection for workers will be critical for each company involved, said a person who was talking on condition of anonymity.
00:27:55.000After weeks of measures designed to limit contact between people, European governments are seeing growing evidence that shutting down much of modern life is containing the disease.
00:28:02.000But the scale of the outbreak means officials need to weigh any attempts to restart parts of the economy against the risk of reigniting the spread.
00:28:09.000Europe has been hardest hit by the pandemic.
00:28:12.000Denmark is going to press ahead with cautious reopening.
00:28:14.000They're going to start with daycare and primary schools on April 15th if the virus numbers remain stable.
00:28:18.000The government will also start talks with business leaders on gradually moving employees back into offices, but with some restrictions in place for months to come.
00:28:27.000So this is where the rubber's gonna hit the road.
00:28:29.000It'll be fascinating to see what happens in these countries where they go back to some level of reopening.
00:28:34.000Now, people are all over Sweden because Sweden has basically allowed people to continue going to restaurants.
00:28:46.000But we're not gonna know, again, the counterfactual, which is if they had locked everybody home for a year, was that going to be better?
00:28:52.000Was that actually going to turn out better?
00:28:54.000Again, if the models are trying to tell you that over the next few months you are less likely to die if you stay home, that is true.
00:29:00.000If the models are telling you that over the course of the next year you have precisely the same chance of dying if you go out as staying in, then everybody is just going to go out.
00:29:09.000And that remains the question that no one is willing to answer.
00:29:14.000Once you got the ICUs in place, once you have the ventilators in place, once you've tested all the drugs that you can test, at least for the moment, then why are we not going to a system where the people who are the most vulnerable, namely the oldest, the people with pre-existing conditions, why are we not moving?
00:29:30.000to a system where those people are basically quarantined off or self-quarantining until we have a vaccine and everybody else who is much lower risk goes back to work.
00:29:39.000Because one of the things that we've been seeing, even in New York City, is that the people who are dying of corona almost entirely have pre-existing conditions.
00:29:51.000The data are fairly clear at this point.
00:29:54.000Which is that if you are older, you have a significantly higher rate of death.
00:29:59.000If you have a pre-existing condition, you have a significantly higher rate of death.
00:30:03.000You can see this information is indeed available from the New York City government.
00:30:09.000The New York City government is reporting in terms of rates by age per 100,000 people, if you are 75 and older, this is COVID-19 acquisition.
00:30:18.000If you have the rate that is so far measured, and again, the rate's not perfect because the testing is not perfect.
00:30:23.000If you're 75 and older, then out of 100,000 people, you have about 1.3% chance.
00:30:29.000If you're 75 and older of having coronavirus, 1.25% chance.
00:30:44.000And if you look at pre-existing conditions, you will see that the number of people with pre-existing conditions is, it is fairly obvious that people have tremendous underlying conditions if you are typically going to die.
00:30:58.000So I'm looking right now at the New York City health data from today.
00:31:02.000And I'll get to what exactly that finds in just one moment.
00:31:04.000First, let's talk about your safety and security on your own property inside your own home.
00:31:09.000So, I've for a long time been worried about safety and security on my property.
00:31:12.000We are seeing in cities around the nation, Seattle, LA, New York, crime rates rising as the police are overwhelmed, as many of them are staying home, as people in jail are being released instead of being put into prison or put on trial.
00:31:24.000This means now would be a pretty good time to protect your property, and this is why you need Ring.
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00:31:44.000This is actually fairly useful, not even for safety reasons, but if I've got my kids playing on the side of the house and gardening or something, I can keep an eye on them from inside the house while I'm dealing With the baby.
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00:32:18.000Okay, well, in just a moment, we're going to get to the statistics from New York City.
00:32:21.000Again, I wish there were more transparency.
00:32:23.000It seems like a lot of the experts are trying to upplay the number of young and healthy people who are getting this thing and dying, and downplay the number of people who are elderly and have pre-existing conditions who are dying.
00:32:32.000And again, it is an enormous tragedy every time somebody dies of Any of these causes, but certainly coronavirus.
00:32:40.000It's not to downplay that, but if we're going to assess risk factors and who gets to go back to work and who does not, let's stop pretending that every element of the population is equally susceptible to dying of coronavirus.
00:32:49.000We'll get to more of this in just one second.
00:33:43.000Become a member and hang out with us at dailywire.com.
00:33:45.000We're the largest, fastest growing conservative podcast and radio show in the nation.
00:33:48.000Okay, so I'm going to give you right now some of the information about underlying conditions in the city of New York.
00:34:00.000They have the New York City health data, and I wish that this data were a lot more transparent, because it doesn't actually tell you what the underlying health conditions are.
00:34:06.000And that's freaking everybody out, because a ton of people in the United States are overweight, a ton of people are taking statins for slightly high blood pressure, a lot of people have sort of mild conditions.
00:34:17.000New York health data doesn't really say.
00:34:19.000They say the underlying illnesses include diabetes, lung disease, cancer, immunodeficiency, heart disease, hypertension, asthma, kidney disease, and GI liver disease.
00:34:27.000So that sounds, you know, a lot more serious.
00:34:31.000So only two people have died under the age of 17 in New York City thus far.
00:34:35.000Both of them had underlying health conditions.
00:34:38.000In the 18 to 44 group, 180 people have died.
00:34:39.000144 of them had underlying health conditions.
00:34:41.000Only 12 had no underlying health conditions.
00:34:46.000The other 24 are still pending testing.
00:34:48.00045 to 64, 777 people dead, only 25 had no underlying health conditions.
00:34:50.00065 to 74, 789 people dead, only 9 had no underlying health conditions.
00:34:54.00075 and over, 1,454 people have died, only 9 had no underlying conditions.
00:34:56.00089 people dead, only nine had no underlying health conditions.
00:34:59.00075 and over, 1,454 people have died, only nine had no underlying conditions.
00:35:05.000Now, we're still waiting testing on some of this stuff, but the fact is that what that suggests is if you have an underlying health condition, you are severely vulnerable from this thing.
00:35:14.000If you do not have an underlying health condition, then there's an almost extraordinary shot that you're not going to die of this thing.
00:35:20.000Okay, if you're young and you're healthy and you're out working, you're probably not going to die.
00:35:23.000Now, you may transmit it to other people.
00:35:25.000And this is where these studies start to come in, right?
00:35:27.000Which is how easily is this thing transmitted?
00:35:31.000But we may get to the point when we lock this thing down such that The elderly are at least protected for the moment and those who are immunocompromised are protected at least for the moment.
00:35:41.000Then we may have to say to that group of people, particularly, guys, you need to stay out of the general population.
00:36:14.000What happens when the government says that my kids can go back to school?
00:36:17.000Well, now the chances that my kids become carriers Dramatically spike, right?
00:36:21.000The chance that when I go back to work and my wife goes back to work and she's a doctor, right?
00:36:25.000That the chances that she becomes a carrier, those dramatically spike.
00:36:28.000And once those spike, then can my parents be over at our house?
00:36:31.000Do they have to lock themselves inside their house up until January, right?
00:36:34.000All of this stuff, these are really difficult and terrible decisions.
00:36:37.000But something that we're definitely going to have to look at because the case remains, it remains the fact that shutting down the world economy has pretty dire ramifications.
00:36:45.000And again, everybody should be acknowledging this at this point.
00:36:48.000That the dire ramifications of shutting down the world economy, this is not insensitivity.
00:36:52.000It is not insensitive to think of the jobs of literally hundreds of millions of people all over the planet, including tens of millions of people in the United States.
00:36:58.000There are food bank lines that are literally miles long right now in the United States for people waiting to get food.
00:37:04.000And so the question is going to become if we are not even balancing death, right?
00:37:08.000Let's say for example, let's say we best possible world.
00:37:11.000We knock this thing down such that beginning of May, the rates of death from this thing are basically 20 a day, right?
00:37:18.000We really knocked the crap out of this thing.
00:37:20.000And by the end of June, we are down to basically zero, right?
00:37:45.000And these sort of solutions that have been suggested by people who really know what they're talking about, right?
00:37:49.000Scott Gottlieb over at the FDA, who's now an advisor to Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.
00:37:54.000When people talk about contact tracing and hundreds of thousands of tests being done every single week and using the South Korean model and electronic surveillance, does that seem realistic to you in the United States?
00:38:05.000Seriously, South Korea has been doing this sort of stuff for 20 years.
00:38:07.000Does that seem realistic to you in the United States?
00:38:09.000It may be better than the alternative, which is staying home, but does that seem more realistic?
00:38:13.000Or does it seem more realistic to say people are going to start to go back to normal life?
00:38:18.000That if you're vulnerable and you're elderly, we're going to have to quarantine you off until either herd immunity is reached or until a vaccine is developed.
00:38:25.000And right now, again, people are ripping on Sweden for taking this exact strategy, but I don't know whether Sweden is going to pay off.
00:40:18.000The only country that says they're down to zero is China, and they're lying.
00:40:21.000So can we at some point get like a realistic assessment of where things are going to be?
00:40:25.000I really don't think anybody is being particularly realistic about this stuff, especially in light of the fact that, again, we are not going to keep the economy locked down.
00:40:33.000And if you really believe that people are going to sit there and take their $1,200 check and be happy for the next four months while losing their job permanently, If you think that, I mean, I know parents in New York City, right now, in their apartments with three kids, unable to go to a public park, unable to take their kids on walks, and they've been locked down for three weeks.
00:40:49.000You think you're gonna be able to do that for another three, four, five, seven months?
00:41:49.000For the last couple of weeks, when I walk into this building and I get in front of this camera, I swear, I feel like I'm in the movie network.
00:42:41.000He's having a press conference with the doctors every single day.
00:42:45.000The media are so eager to rip on Trump that they are making themselves the issue and they are losing credibility in the process.
00:42:52.000One of the big problems here, again, is this is a time when you require high institutional health, tremendous institutional health.
00:42:58.000We've got to trust Congress to get us our checks.
00:42:59.000We've got to trust the White House to provide great information.
00:43:02.000We've got to trust the media to be straight in their coverage.
00:43:04.000We have to trust the experts in their modeling.
00:43:06.000And nobody trusts any of these people.
00:43:08.000So it's a really difficult problem right now.
00:43:10.000And then you got Don Lemon out there channeling Howard Beale.
00:43:12.000I mean, for those who haven't seen the movie, by the way, that is Don Lemon labeling himself an insane schizophrenic because that's what Howard Beale actually is.
00:43:17.000He thinks God is talking to him in network.
00:43:19.000So not a great way to compare yourself there.
00:44:28.000And a lot of people are saying that when, and are taking it, if you're a doctor, a nurse, a first responder, a medical person going into hospitals, they say taking it before the fact is good.
00:44:52.000If it does work, it would be a shame if we didn't do it early.
00:44:57.000Okay, so first of all, he is wrong to suggest that you ought to be taking it preventatively, right?
00:45:01.000There's not evidence that you ought to be taking this thing preventatively, that you should be taking... That is a legit fact check.
00:45:06.000If President Trump says you ought to be taking this thing preventatively, he should not be saying that, right?
00:45:10.000It should be prescribed by a doctor when it is useful.
00:45:12.000Okay, but him touting the benefits of hydroxychloroquine, the media have more broadly suggested it is very bad to tout the benefits of hydroxychloroquine, and yet here you have Andrew Cuomo yesterday suggesting there's anecdotal evidence and we're going to ask for more of it.
00:45:24.000There has been anecdotal evidence that it is promising.
00:45:31.000Doctors have to prescribe, but there are some people who have pre-existing conditions where it doesn't work, or they're taking medication that's not consistent with this treatment.
00:46:43.000That is not where the New York Times goes.
00:46:44.000Instead, here's the New York Times reporting.
00:46:46.000If hydroxychloroquine becomes an accepted treatment, several pharmaceutical companies stand to profit, including shareholders and senior executives with connections to the president.
00:46:53.000Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drug maker that makes Plaquenil, the brand name version of hydroxychloroquine.
00:47:02.000Um, so you think that Trump is pushing a hydroxychloroquine because he owns stock in a company that makes Plaquenil?
00:47:09.000First of all, this thing is off patent.
00:47:11.000Hydroxychloroquine is not on patent, which means that the maker of Plaquenil is not the company that stands to benefit most.
00:47:19.000Second of all, how big a stake does Trump own in Sanofi?
00:47:23.000According to Market Watch, His three family trusts have investments in a Dodge and Cox mutual fund, whose largest holding is Sanofi.
00:47:31.000Trump's 2019 financial disclosure form lists stakes in family trusts 1, 2, and 3, valued at between $1,000 and $15,000.
00:47:38.000So if Trump has the maximum $15,000 in each of the trusts, he holds a stake in Sanofi that's worth $1,485, and at the minimum, $99.
00:47:47.000You're right, probably Trump, who's at the very least worth a billion dollars.
00:47:51.000He may not be worth ten billion, he's worth at least a billion.
00:47:53.000You're saying that that guy is recommending hydroxychloroquine because the on-brand version, now that we are off patent, that that brand version, he needs that to sell because of his $99 stake in the company?
00:48:34.000So when you are cooped up long enough with small children, eventually you take to physically throwing them around.
00:48:40.000And that's pretty much what has happened in my house.
00:48:43.000I have a six-year-old and a three-year-old.
00:48:44.000And their favorite game right now is for me to take out my phone and put on Ozzy Osbourne's Crazy Train and then proceed to air guitar with them as human beings.
00:50:26.000Your principles went directly out the window when it turns out that Israel made something you want to use.
00:50:31.000Who could have predicted such a thing?
00:50:33.000He said, according to the Jerusalem Post, if you use medical equipment from Israel, it's not a problem.
00:50:37.000Cooperating with Israel against the virus, to begin with, that's not normalization.
00:50:41.000The BDS announced normalization criteria long ago.
00:50:43.000If Israel finds a cure for cancer, for example, or any other virus, there's no problem in cooperating with Israel to save millions of lives.
00:50:49.000Up until now, we've not been in a situation where we need Israel urgently, and no one else can save us but Israel.
00:50:55.000If that happens, saving lives is more important than anything else.
00:51:00.000Weird how, like, all of your, Israel is very bad, we won't use any of their products, went directly out of the window as soon as you wanted to use one of their products.
00:51:08.000So, I only hope that this materializes not only because everybody wants the vaccine, that'd be great, but also because it would be absolutely delicious to watch all the BDS people have to acknowledge that their garbage strategy has indeed failed.
00:51:52.000And the way they went sideways is that a woman came forward named Christine Blasey Ford, and she said that some Four decades ago, that this person had allegedly attempted to rape her at a party.
00:52:02.000And nobody came forward with any corroborating details.
00:52:18.000Star of the magnificent, unparalleled TV show, Charmed.
00:52:23.000It did not stop Alyssa Milano from showing up and wearing Handmaid's Tale outfits and sitting behind Brett Kavanaugh because hashtag me too, ladies.
00:52:33.000And when people like Alyssa Milano were asked specifically about this thing called due process, where you have to provide evidence of an allegation to make us take it a little bit more seriously than the mere allegation itself, it was This is because you just don't believe all women.
00:52:48.000If only you weren't a vicious sexist trying to cudgel all women into being child-bearing sows, then you would have just accepted at face value any accusation made about any man anywhere.
00:53:00.000Well, speaking of hypocrisy, it turns out that there is a woman who has now come forward and she's accused the former vice president of the United States of asexual assault.
00:53:13.000So this woman, his name is Tara Reid, not the actress, different person.
00:53:18.000She was an intern for Biden's office, and she alleges that Biden basically pushed her up against a wall and then tried to go under her skirt and actually touched her genitals forcibly.
00:53:28.000And then when she told him not, then he sort of backed off.
00:53:31.000Well, Alyssa Milano is a big backer of Joe Biden, and she did a radio show yesterday in which she explained why she had not spoken out about the sexual assault allegation.
00:53:41.000It turns out that Believe All Women goes completely by the wayside as soon as it's somebody that she likes.
00:53:47.000So here is Alyssa Milano explaining why she was not going to give any credence to the allegations.
00:53:53.000The obvious answer is she's not giving credence to the allegations because she doesn't like the allegations.
00:53:57.000I believe that even though we should believe women, and that is an important thing, and what that statement really means is like, you know, for so long, the go-to has been not to believe them.
00:54:15.000So really, we have to sort of societally change that mindset to believing women.
00:54:22.000But that does not mean at the expense of not, you know, giving men their due process.
00:55:08.000We were told that Christine Blasey Ford had no interest in making things up, that there was no possibility she was misremembering, that there was no possibility at all that memories from 40 years ago are vague or confusing or anything like that.
00:55:19.000It was crystal clear in her memory and other allegations which required lawyers to basically convince people to go out and say things.
00:55:26.000There's another allegation where a woman had to meet six times with her lawyer in order to accuse Brett Kavanaugh of something.
00:55:31.000That was perfectly good evidence that Brett Kavanaugh was indeed a rapist.
00:55:36.000She says, I don't just feel comfortable throwing away a decent man I've known for 15 years in this time of complete chaos without there being a thorough investigation.
00:55:43.000I'm sure that the mainstream media would be jumping all over this as well if, you know, if they found more evidence.
00:55:55.000So we have to find this balance in the Believe Women movement and also giving men their due process.
00:55:58.000Realizing that we're destroying lives if we publicly don't go through the right steps in order to find out if an accusation is credible or not.
00:56:06.000Okay, in September 2018, here's what she had to say, Alyssa Milano.
00:56:12.000I demand our senators vote to reject Brett Kavanaugh as the next justice on the Supreme Court.
00:56:15.000Every person who refuses to loudly and openly reject Brett Kavanaugh's nomination is telling every generation of Americans that an alleged abuser's career is more valuable than a survivor's humanity.
00:56:24.000The highest court in our land is no place for an alleged sexual offender to sit.
00:56:50.000At that point, we just call them trailer trash.
00:56:52.000People who, if you drag a $100 bill through a trailer park, then you pick up people like this, which is what James Carville suggested about the alleged victims of Bill Clinton.
00:57:08.000Alrighty, we'll be back here a little bit later today with two additional hours of content and all your updates.
00:57:12.000Also, all access live tonight, so I'll be hanging out with you for an hour, taking all your questions.
00:57:16.000Maybe 45 minutes, because I don't want to hang out with you that long, but at the very least, we'll hang out for 45 minutes before my screaming children come in and invade the place.
00:57:24.000Otherwise, we'll see you here tomorrow.
00:57:57.000Alyssa Milano believes all women, except for the women accusing her friends of sexual assault.
00:58:02.000We will examine how the MeToo movement died yesterday, and what lessons we can learn from its demise on everything from politics to the coronavirus.
00:58:10.000Then, more good news out of New York, more bad news for the fake news media, and a Bernie bro endorsement for President Trump.