Tyler Boyer joins us for an in depth election analysis on why Turning Point Action helped deliver the White House for Donald Trump in 2020. Charlie and Tyler discuss the importance of turning out the vote in the key swing state of Arizona, and how the organization was able to do so in a state that was a solid red state in 2016, but was a tossup in 2016 between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. They also discuss the impact Turning Point USA had on the outcome of the presidential election and the impact it can have on the future of the country. Get your tickets to AmericaFest, the largest event of the year, in Phoenix, Arizona, December 19-22, where all the big names are going to be there. That s Amfest! That's Amfest. That's AmericaFest. That is Amfest, the world's largest gathering of free-flowing gold and precious metals. Amfest is happening in Phoenix on Dec. 19-20th, and tickets go on sale now! Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments, a company that specializes in gold and physical delivery of precious metals, at noblegoldinvestments.co/charliekirk.co. You can get all the gold you ve ever wanted at Noble Gold Investing.co, where I buy all of my gold! You get 20% off your first month with the purchase of a Noble Gold Investor account! If you like the show, please HIT me on Anchor.fm/TheCharlieKirkShow and I'll send me a review of The CharlieKirk Show! Subscribe to The Charlie Kirk Show. so I can keep you up to date on what s going on the trending topics and what s happening in the market! I'll be giving you guys can you get a discount on the next episode of the show! CHECK OUT THE CHALLENGING CHALLENGE HERE! CHECK ME OUT! CHILLY! CHEERS! - Charlie Kirk - THE CHILLIEK SHOW! CHALKERKARD - CHALLNERDS - THE KEEP UP WITH ME! CHALL THE MOST IMPORTANT LINKS? CHALLeneYEARLY BONUS EPISODE OF THE WEEKEND OF THE CHAMPIONSHIPROLLER - CHEER AND MORE! CHERRY KIRK SHOW? CHECKOUT LINKS AND PATREON LINKS BELOW! CHAMPED!
00:00:51.000His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
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00:01:40.000We want to spend this hour to go through some of the political dynamics of what is unfolding and really go through still a diagnostic deep report of what happened this last election, what Turning Point Action was able to do, how many ballots we chased, how many low propensity voters We were able to get out to the polls.
00:01:59.000But first, I want to remind you guys to please get your tickets to AmericaFest.
00:02:07.000We have Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Ben Carson, Matt Gaetz, Josh Hawley, Ana Paulina Luna, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Matt Walsh, Nicole Shanahan, Michael Knowles, Danica Patrick, Allie B. Stuckey, Brandon Tatum, Brett Cooper, Jack Posobiec, Benny Johnson, Riley Gaines, George Janko, Alex Clark, Roger Stone, Scott Pressler, Callie Means, and more.
00:03:28.000Many people don't know it or appreciate it enough, but what Charlie's doing right now is really tough work.
00:03:34.000No, our team had really gone in and we looked at this and we sat down, Charlie and I sat down, you know, really looking at the postmortem of 2020 and then watching in horror as basically we just waited to see the result of what the Republican establishment, the National apparatus said they were going to do to help fix Arizona.
00:03:58.000And as we say so many times, the Calvary didn't come.
00:04:01.000So we knew very rapidly leading into 2022, we had to do something massive in the state because Arizona, as we've repeated on this show many, many times, is kind of like the Democrats Michigan.
00:04:15.000If you lose Arizona, your statistical chance of winning the presidency goes way down, way, way down to the tune of like over 70% of a likelihood based off of the current map.
00:04:29.000So having our team organized, we had to build this thing fast.
00:04:32.000We basically replicated what they've built in Michigan.
00:04:36.000So a similar construct in Michigan, what the Democrats have done there, we built that in basically 18 months.
00:04:45.000And they've spent the better part of probably 18 years building that there.
00:04:49.000So we are really proud of the team that we have.
00:04:53.000We spread our people across the state evenly and very specifically to areas that needed the most assistance.
00:05:01.000And how we went about our work was really simple.
00:05:04.000And we're going to talk about this a whole lot in the coming next two or four years as we prepare to enter into other states and to expand in other states and looking at how do you properly place enough people in order to chase enough ballots.
00:05:20.000And we did that through our Superchase model.
00:05:22.000How many ballots did we, how many disengaged low propensity voters did we chase in Arizona?
00:05:28.000So we know we, I mean, we had a target audience in Arizona.
00:05:32.000So to put this into perspective, when all is said and done, Arizona is going to be, again, about three and a half million, just a little bit more than three and a half million voters.
00:05:42.000And so that was the target that we looked at.
00:05:44.000And we took a universe of about just shy of 400,000 people that we knew we could contact, which, I mean, quick math, that's over 10% of the voters.
00:05:58.000base of at least 10% of the voters plucking out the people who are least likely to vote.
00:06:02.000When you do that, the method and methodology that, again, the left uses, and now what we are using is put enough bodies on the ground to chase half of those people.
00:06:15.000Well, if you can do better than that, you're going to be able to get your candidates across the finish line in a bigger number.
00:06:24.000If you don't hit that number, and the polls, again, are within those margins, which all the swing states are, we know, have been 2, 3, 4, 5 points, you could lose.
00:06:37.000And we look at Wisconsin, for example, Charlie, you know, that's one of those states that Trump has won and lost by very slim margins, including this year.
00:06:48.000We did that work and performed that same work in Wisconsin, and he barely won, right?
00:07:13.000But you can take a smattering of those polls, identify what's winnable, and then based off of the winnability of a state, determine, can we put enough bodies on the ground to chase enough votes to make a difference?
00:07:36.000So in Arizona, we ultimately chase Charlie.
00:07:39.000We will have the final, final numbers confirmed by actual voter data, which they have not yet released in Maricopa County.
00:07:47.000So we know Maricopa County counts slow.
00:07:49.000They also, believe it or not, release voter data very slow.
00:07:52.000And so those numbers will be finalized.
00:07:55.000But what we have confirmed between what we know And the people that we've chased, that we've confirmed, we well exceeded 200,000 voters, which was above our projections, above what our goals were, pretty significantly.
00:08:10.000Well, also, and I'm looking at the numbers here, that is more than the margin of which Donald Trump won the state of Arizona by.
00:08:17.000Donald Trump won the state of Arizona by about 186,000 votes, if my math is right-ish, 186,000 votes, which, by the way, is a triumph.
00:08:31.000But you count those 200,000 people, without that work, Tyler, Arizona would have been a nail-biter if not a Kamala Harris victory.
00:09:48.000Bringing them cookies, offering to help, bringing their groceries, seeing them at the park, waving them at the mailbox, being from their neighborhood.
00:09:58.000That is how you get people to turn out who are not likely to turn out.
00:10:02.000That effectivity through our process was able to get Donald Trump across the finish line and not just Arizona, but we believe in Wisconsin as well.
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00:11:02.000Tyler, tell us the story of what happened in Wisconsin.
00:11:05.000Well, you know, and this is one thing I actually wanted to point out that over the break, I had our team just pull the quick numbers because I'm kind of behind a few days here just looking at the updates from where the vote totals are ending up.
00:11:18.000There's something kind of very interesting that's happened this last election cycle, and we knew this going in.
00:11:23.000Arizona and Wisconsin, we knew we're going to have very similar turnout numbers.
00:11:27.000Arizona, Wisconsin only had a difference of about 30,000 votes in total turnout, which that's where it stands as of today.
00:11:35.000And again, Arizona is still counting some votes.
00:11:40.000I said that last time was a little bit bigger.
00:11:42.000We've actually now eclipsed last time.
00:11:45.000But this time in Arizona, and the only difference, the margin of vote difference between 2020 and 2024 is now only about 5,000 votes, which is mind-blowing because it was looking like along the pathway here that there were going to be less turnout.
00:12:50.000In fact, if you look at, there's been some diagrams that showcase the changes that have happened over the last two election cycles in these individual counties.
00:12:59.000I know we've covered it a little bit on your program, is it is getting redder and deep red.
00:13:05.000So it wasn't Donald Trump just flipping counties.
00:13:08.000It was counties going from light red to deep red.
00:13:11.000And that is a phenomenon that is hard to reverse for the Democrat Party because now you have what we call habitual voters now becoming much more used to and okay with voting for a Republican president.
00:13:25.000A lot of pundits, again, will notice trends in presidential victories, that some states are just very solid Republican presidential states, while they may vote for Democrat governors or Democrat senators.
00:13:41.000This is very bad for the Democrats, because what seemingly is happening, and if the Republican Party can seize upon this, is create habitual Republican voting states for president.
00:13:53.000And that would make our life a lot easier if we could accomplish that in places like Arizona and Nevada, for example, and the Sun Belt, and then obviously return things back to normal in the South and Georgia and North Carolina.
00:14:07.000So but really quick here, in Wisconsin, we definitely chased more than 30,000 low propensity ballots.
00:14:20.000We partnered with Elon Musk's America PAC because there was, out of all the states, we looked around, we were one of the only people to put a full-time office in the most important part of Wisconsin, which is Waukesha County.
00:14:35.000If you know the Milwaukee Wow area, they call it the Wow area because of the three counties that immediately surround Milwaukee.
00:14:42.000That's Waukesha, Washington County, and Ozaukee County.
00:14:47.000Those three counties are your red counties.
00:14:49.000Those are your offset to the deep blue territory in Milwaukee.
00:14:55.000Milwaukee had something happen in it that hasn't really happened recently, which is that there was significantly lower voter turnout early there, which definitely increased the Republican margins in the deeper blue areas.
00:15:11.000The outside counties were able to maintain their margins pretty steadily from last election, which gave Donald Trump a significant edge in the wow area.
00:15:22.000And so when you look at this, going back to your question, was, you know, how many ballots did we chase that were low propensity?
00:15:28.000We hit, in addition to helping Elon's group and working together and hand-in-hand with them to get out the vote, we also had over 60,000, and we're still waiting on voter data as well there, we're hoping that it's going to end up being more, 60,000 voters who are less likely voters who are able to get turned out.
00:16:11.000But I think you'll agree this reason trumps them all.
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00:17:03.000We got Matt Walsh, Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Ben Carson, Matt Gaetz, Josh Hawley, Anna Paulina, Nicole Shanahan, Danica Patrick, and more coming up.
00:20:33.000A guy that absolutely hates our guts that I've been just, like, provoking at the AZ Central, that's the Arizona Republic here locally, who's an opinion columnist, EJ Martini.
00:21:21.000So we're going to see a lot more of this that's happening.
00:21:24.000Uh, you know, for us, it's, it's really positive because I mean, look, we're walking into a Congress where, you know, the left wing is making our side that people consider more right wing, our freedom caucus look very common sense.
00:21:39.000And the freedom caucus members outnumber the separation between Democrats and Republicans.
00:21:44.000So we're going to have another, I think, fairly conservative House session here that's coming up.
00:21:53.000Nothing can be more exciting than that when you couple that together with Donald Trump being the president.
00:21:59.000That's why everybody's so focused on our U.S. Senate right now.
00:22:08.000Focus on attacking the left and not attacking Donald Trump.
00:22:12.000And this is where they have a real fork in the road between the confirmations with Donald Trump and what we know is the radical left that's losing big time across the country.
00:22:22.000So let me ask, Blake, if you were trying to give advice on how to get these cabinet officials selected and confirmed, not selected, but confirmed to the Trump team, how do you think that should be done from a strategic standpoint?
00:22:36.000I think one of the biggest advantages we have is the fact that Democrats are still fighting amongst themselves, and that helps in people's minds.
00:22:45.000We already had, on the election night, we won the House, we won the Senate, Trump won the popular vote.
00:23:11.000And if you couple that with Democrats being in disarray, and as a result, there's not nearly as much of a resistance coming out into existence yet...
00:23:22.000It's like the psychological environment matters a lot.
00:23:24.000And the psychological environment is Trump won.
00:23:27.000The people who are against Trump are like freaking out and they're like, oh, we need to adapt our strategy.
00:23:31.000We might need to adapt our entire worldview about politics.
00:23:36.000All of that helps set up a situation where you can't be the Republican who steps in and says, actually, we're going to sabotage your cabinet and cause it to all be a mess.
00:23:46.000A lot of these guys, I think you observed it yesterday, Charlie, that the people who speak about, oh, you know, they're wary about this, but they don't like to say it publicly.
00:24:09.000He said that about Gates just the other day, too.
00:24:12.000He's saying, we're going to make you vote on it up or down.
00:24:14.000And when you put the metaphorical gun to the head here, they're going to, I think a lot of them are going to knuckle under.
00:24:20.000A lot of these people are psychologically a bit weak.
00:24:23.000That's why they get browbeaten by the left so easily.
00:24:26.000But right now the left is too disorganized to browbeat anyone.
00:24:29.000So we can browbeat them to stay on side.
00:24:32.000So I think aggressive posture, keep making the picks you want, tell them they're going to have to vote on them, we're going to make you have to publicly vote up or down on every single one of these, if we don't do the recess appointment approach, of course.
00:24:45.000And if you do that, I think a lot of these guys are just going to say, okay, you get your shot, because I think they'll capitulate, basically.
00:24:54.000Yeah, so Tyler, what is your thoughts on this?
00:24:57.000Is it time to potentially entertain primaries of red state senators that don't represent their voters?
00:25:03.000Oh man, Charlie, this is going to be a really fun year because you know who's going to do most of the work for us?
00:25:12.000So it's not going to take a ton of convincing to get conservatives out of bed.
00:25:19.000And actually, I think it's very helpful ahead of the midterms, quite frankly, to have an energized base that are energized about something.
00:25:30.000And if we have some people, and I think it's going to be very few, so I totally agree with Blake.
00:25:34.000I think you're going to have a situation where you have a lot of people who fold because they talk big talk in the cafeteria at the Capitol, but once they're out on the floor...
00:25:45.000All of a sudden, we've seen some of this.
00:25:48.000We've seen some people completely turn 100% around.
00:25:52.000And I wish we had time to kind of go through some fond memories of people talking, you know, tough talk against Trump and then turning around and becoming, you know, the biggest Trump fans because they got smacked across the face a few times by the grassroots.
00:26:07.000But the grassroots is going to serve up a hot plate of get the heck out of here to some of our senators and some of our deepest red states.
00:26:16.000And I don't know if we want to go into that or if we want to start lobbying those bombs here yet, but...
00:26:22.000There's some very clear places that are deep red, deep, deep red territory where President Trump won by not just double digits, but a wide, wide margin, like 20, 30 points, where some of these people are having trouble realizing who's in charge of the party right now.
00:27:05.000Quite literally, no one can pick them off the street.
00:27:08.000I won't say, again, I've told this story kind of embarrassing of this person, whoever this person was, but a statewide elected official walked right through their state fair.
00:27:18.000Nobody even recognized who that person was.
00:27:21.000You cannot pick them up off the street.
00:27:23.000Nobody knows who they are unless they're standing on C-SPAN. And I think that's part of the psychological warfare that exists behind the scenes.
00:27:35.000They talk about the psychology of all this.
00:27:38.000Some of these people live and die by their title and by the love that they receive from lobbyists.
00:27:50.000You know, the party in a lot of cases doesn't like them.
00:27:53.000You know, look at, you know, Cornyn in Texas getting booed off stage because of red flag laws and other places like that where it is happening all the time.
00:28:00.000And so they've kind of just pivoted to their own little corner.
00:28:04.000And what happens is that you have the NRSC and other places that have a policy of defending incumbents that spend money that keep these people in place because literally no one knows who they are.
00:28:15.000So people just go, oh, I guess I'll just vote for the guy that has an R next to his name.
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00:29:38.000We have some big announcements coming about this.
00:29:40.000Yeah, we've got some huge announcements.
00:29:41.000The grassroots is the most critical part to the movement because that has been the engine for the Trump era since 2016.
00:29:51.000We saw, I think, what's the culmination of the Tea Party movement, the constitutional conservatives coming together, now what we call America First patriots, all coming together and saying, yeah, there's nothing that's going to be able to get in our way.
00:30:03.000And That certainly applies to presidential candidates.
00:30:07.000We saw the slaughtering that happened during the presidential primary.
00:30:12.000People thought, oh, this is going to be a competitive thing with Donald Trump.
00:30:15.000And people didn't really understand what they were up against.
00:30:18.000That's because the people are so far behind our new 47th president, our immediately past best president that we've had.
00:30:29.000And that is not going to go well for senators who get in the way.
00:30:34.000And so our campaign that we're going to be rolling out very quickly here, and a huge thanks to Charlie, who's been the brainchild behind much of it, which is going to be give Trump his cabinet.
00:30:46.000And we're going to be letting people know that there's a mandate.
00:30:49.000There's not just a mandate for the president to just be the guy that's just sitting in the chair behind the resolute desk.
00:30:58.000It's going to be actually, you know, governing and being the executive of this country.
00:31:02.000And we can't do that if we don't give him his people.
00:31:05.000And so the senators are going to learn a harsh lesson, a reality, and they're going to come face to face with that mandate themselves if they don't get themselves out of the way.
00:31:16.000And I can't imagine what their argument is going to be, Tyler, if they voted for Merrick Garland and they won't vote for Matt Gaetz.
00:31:25.000I mean, this will send the grassroots on fire.
00:31:29.000Yeah, I mean, Charlie, it just reminds me of Jeff Flake, you know, and we'll tell the story about Jeff Flake here over and over again here in Arizona.
00:31:38.000You know, when he was in office, he became best buddies with Barack Obama, would shoot hoops with him.
00:31:43.000And he went out and just decided he would approve all of Barack Obama's cabinet appointments.
00:31:52.000And a lot of people start scratching their heads.
00:31:53.000They go, hey, Senator, you were one of the most conservative members of Congress.
00:31:56.000What the heck are you doing playing basketball with Barack Obama and approving all these Senate appointments?
00:32:04.000And then when Trump got in, if we remember correctly, he was one of those voices that stood in the way and said, you know what, I'm not going to vote for any of President Trump's people.
00:32:14.000And people said, hey, if you were going to vote for, you know, some of these awful, awful, you know, Obama appointees, why won't you vote for, you know, really some real normie Trump appointees?
00:32:29.000And if you remember, he was also one of the people that stood in the way for the Supreme Court issues and everything else before he ultimately chose not to run for re-election.
00:32:39.000That's what the outcome was for Jeff Flake.
00:32:41.000Senator Flake, who is now a card-carrying Democrat who's going out working for Joe Biden.