Mark Halpern and Andrew Copilot join us to break down the early voting numbers in the Arizona primary and give us the inside scoop on what s going on with early voting and why we should all get out and vote in the primary. Plus, we have a special guest on the show to talk about the upcoming University of Georgia primary and what to look out for in the upcoming mid-term elections. Click here to listen to the full episode and share it with your friends! Tweet me and let us know what you thought of this episode! Timestamps: 4:00 - What's going on in Arizona? 6:30 - Who's winning in Arizona and why it's important 7:00 What s happening in Georgia 8:40 - What to watch for in Tuesday's primary election 9:15 - What s going to happen in the midterms 11:30 Can we turn out the vote in Arizona 13:00- Is this a race we can win in 2020? 14:15 15:20 - Can we win in Georgia? 16:40 17:30- Is Arizona a red state or a blue state 18:20 19:10 - Is there any chance we can turn out our base? 21:15- What's the real chance in Arizona in 2020 22:20- What are we going to do in 2020 and what are we need to do to win in November 23: What s our best chance? 26:00 -- Is Arizona going to turn out in the vote? 27:00: What's our best bet? 29:30 -- What s the best thing we can we do? 30:40 -- What can we learn from Arizona? -- Is there a chance we re in a good spot? 35:10 -- What do we have going forward? 31:00-- Is Arizona in the best chance to win the primary 36:30-- Is this country going to be better than the other side? 32: Is Arizona better than North Carolina or California? 33:15 -- Is it better than Florida? 34:10 37: What do you think we re going to have a chance in 2020 in 2020?? 39:40-- What are you going to vote for? 45:30 | What are the chances?
00:00:00.000Hey everybody, today on the Charlie Kirk Show, we have Mark Halpern who breaks down the state of the race, producer Andrew Copilot, so I can save my voice as we are about to go to the University of Georgia for more fun.
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00:01:45.000Well, the early voting story across the country, we should say that.
00:01:49.000I mean, from Georgia to Pennsylvania to even Arizona, Nevada, a lot of people are saying that the voting, the betting sites, the odds are going in Trump's favor because conservatives are jumping in.
00:02:27.000I recommend everybody go check out Charlie's X account right now.
00:02:29.000There was a really important tweet that you authored yesterday about updates in Arizona.
00:02:35.000So if I could summarize it for the audience, it basically said that at this exact point in 2020, we were down in early voting to the Democrats statewide by 10%, 10.4%.
00:03:55.000It seems as if early voting were up on average about 20 to 25 points state by state versus 2020.
00:04:02.000It's an interesting Georgia, North Carolina, that seems to be the moving average.
00:04:07.000Yeah, well, and if you look at Georgia, for example, we're getting updates regularly from Georgia, a state we're in right now, and it looks like the rurals are just coming out of the woodwork.
00:04:18.000I mean, these people are crawling over glass to get to the ballot box early.
00:04:23.000And what's also really promising, Charlie, in the states where we have I think?
00:04:47.000Did that person vote zero times out of last four or one out of four?
00:04:51.000So those would be what we call our low prop voters, low prop propensity voters, and they are coming out of the woodwork.
00:04:58.000Our messaging, our ground game is working.
00:05:01.000Yeah, and we have a picture here we can throw up on screen.
00:05:04.000This is one individual from our chase the vote strategy where this guy is a guy by the name of Reno, and it is his first time voting since John McCain.
00:05:14.000And so that is a net new vote for Donald Trump.
00:06:05.000Kamala Harris is traveling the country with Liz Cheney.
00:06:11.000And so why would Kamala Harris be traveling the country with Liz Cheney?
00:06:15.000It's obvious, and we've seen this through multiple different advertisements, multiple different messaging strategies.
00:06:21.000The data is screaming at her that she is losing Center to center-right Republicans so significantly that there are not enough left-wing activist types to make up the gap.
00:06:35.000She's also taking her base for granted, which I think is a very dangerous thing, Kamala.
00:06:42.000They are not nearly in favor of you like you think they are.
00:06:46.000I think Democrats are going to have serious base decay, two or three points.
00:06:51.000I think this is a miscalculation in a lot of different ways.
00:06:55.000Traveling the country with Liz Cheney is what a Democrat consultant thinks that Republican voters want, when in reality, Liz Cheney is deeply unpopular both to any conservative that might be somewhat open-minded to voting for Kamala, but secondly, Liz Cheney is a great way to turn off Democrat base voters.
00:07:22.000So Kamala Harris is parading around someone who literally that family was called a war crime family.
00:07:28.000In just a couple years ago, there was a movie by the name of Vice.
00:08:17.000Are you surprised that you're out here campaigning for a Democrat, campaigning for Kamala Harris against the party that you've been a part of your entire life?
00:08:26.000You know, what I would say, first of all, is...
00:08:31.000We all know, everyone who watched January 6th knows, you know, what Donald Trump is willing to do.
00:09:21.000But I got into a conversation with a bunch of Muslim young men that were extraordinarily upset with Kamala Harris.
00:09:29.000And that actually surprised me because they admitted that their one issue is Israel.
00:09:33.000But they would rather take Trump than Kamala.
00:09:36.000And Trump put out a social post about this on Truth.
00:09:40.000Arab voters are very upset with comrade Kamala Harris, the worst vice president in the history.
00:09:45.000Of the United States and a low IQ individual is campaigning with dumb as a rock war hawk Liz Cheney, who like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously go into war in the Middle East, and it goes on.
00:10:43.000I can't say enough good stuff about them.
00:10:45.000You can consolidate and pay off all your debt, lower your payments, save thousands in interest, and possibly even pay your home off sooner.
00:11:50.000So this is one of their big bets, everybody, just so we're clear.
00:11:53.000The Kamala Harris campaign is betting on the quiet anti-Trump voter, that there are millions of anti-Trump Republicans embedded in very deep red areas.
00:12:03.000And it's going to be just enough to tilt it.
00:12:06.000So I want to go back to this idea of base decay.
00:12:08.000What she's doing is underestimating how deeply unpopular the Warhawks are, these warmongers, Liz Cheney, Dick Cheney, John Bolton.
00:12:17.000There was 200 McCain, Romney, ex-staffers or whatever.
00:12:22.000So she's courting the center right and the center left, the middle.
00:12:28.000And meanwhile, I'm sitting at a college campus and these Muslim kids that are voting for Trump.
00:13:54.000You know, it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
00:13:56.000But essentially, when Trump went on, and they mentioned this to me, when Trump went on the stage with Caitlin Collins, this is apparently a clip that they play still in their communities.
00:14:13.000I want an end of the killing and destruction.
00:14:16.000And to them, they know Trump has been friends with BBNet and Yahoo for a long time, but they still say, we think Trump is going to bring peace, more peace than destruction.
00:14:26.000And so I think Trump has played this role.
00:14:34.000I think trying to get conservatives to peel away and Republicans, even though there has been a strong Never Trump faction, I think that is baked into the cake.
00:16:23.000I'm telling you, she's gonna see base decay because of this.
00:16:27.000Be careful turning your back on your most faithful voters to go find warmongers.
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00:18:06.000It is Two Way TV. Mark, you've been ahead of the curve here for a couple weeks.
00:18:11.000You've been kind of whispering and saying, hey guys, the data is not as good as you might think if you're on the left and if you're in the Democrat Party.
00:18:20.000Based on your broadcast on two-way TV, it is universally agreed on all sides that there's been a shift in Trump's direction the last two weeks.
00:18:46.000So I'm not rooting for Donald Trump or rooting for Kamala Harris.
00:18:49.000I'm just trying to report what's happening and allow people to understand as best I can do that from talking to sources on both sides.
00:18:56.000In this case, I think there may be something to what you're saying, Republicans closing strong.
00:19:00.000I also think, as I have since Kamala Harris ascended to the nomination, that the basic question was, would she be defined as a good steward of a good economy?
00:19:09.000As someone who'd be a fierce commander-in-chief or which should be defined on the terms of the Trump campaign, weak, failed, and dangerously liberal.
00:19:16.000And I think through the actions of Donald Trump himself, through their advertising, and through Kamala Harris's failure to directly address the hardest questions she gets when she talks to reporters, I think a lot of the undecided voters have shifted to Trump, either feeling they don't know enough about her or feeling that she's too liberal or feeling insulted that she's not answering the questions.
00:19:39.000Yeah, so Mark, let's dive into some news yesterday.
00:19:42.000Kamala Harris is traveling the country with Liz Cheney on a country over party tour, which we imagine, just kind of looking at this from the outside, is them, they're looking at their internals thinking that they have to win over more Republicans.
00:19:56.000Would you say that is likely their strategy right now, that they have to win over center-right disaffected Republicans in order to achieve electoral success?
00:20:06.000Well, they don't just have one challenge, and it seems to be true of the Trump campaign.
00:20:10.000There's not a single demographic that they're going for, but there's no doubt that the Harris campaign has shifted a little bit with this focus on not just Liz Cheney and disaffected Republicans who may have voted for Nikki Haley in a primary or a caucus, but more back to the Biden message of this is about January 6th and about Whether Donald Trump's fit to hold office,
00:20:32.000not engaging on the economy as much, not engaging on abortion as much, although they're still talking about those two issues.
00:20:40.000But this seems to be their dominant closing argument.
00:20:43.000The challenge they have is they still have other problems, particularly young men Men of color, Hispanic men and Latino men and Black men in a demographic that, of course, exists across all seven battleground states.
00:20:56.000They also have a problem with Jewish voters and Arab and Muslim American voters.
00:21:01.000And they've also got a problem with working class voters and men generally.
00:21:06.000So again, Trump campaign has its own demographic issues to address as well.
00:21:10.000But part of the challenge to the vice president is she's got some narrow issues with demographics and some broad issues with demographics.
00:21:17.000And finding the ability to message all those things at once has proven to be a challenge for her.
00:21:21.000And I think that's a big part of why she is behind right now.
00:21:25.000So, Mark, I took some notes from your wonderful conversation with Tucker Carlson, and correct me if this is incorrect, but you basically said that the Kamala Harris campaign is betting on four things.
00:21:36.000And I'm of the camp that I think this race is actually far closer than some of the bulls in Trump world say.
00:21:42.000I think that it's far closer than even the betting markets suggest.
00:21:44.000And I think these four things we really need to think about for those of us that enthusiastically want to see Donald Trump return.
00:21:51.000You argue that the Kamala Harris campaign believes that the abortion vote is a hidden vote and it's not really popping up in the data, that they have a ground game that is superior to Donald Trump's, they believe that, and that they have an old-fashioned organizer either as a campaign manager or is in senior leadership of their campaign,
00:22:08.000that they believe that the female vote or the woman vote Is that a correct summary of the four things that the Kamala Harris campaign is betting on?
00:22:33.000Well, I'd also had the rank and competence of the people doing turnout for President Trump.
00:22:48.000And although my sources, including my independent sources, I've got some secret sources who are just independent analysts of the data.
00:22:55.000And even though they'd all say Trump is the favorite, that list...
00:23:00.000Is why, if Kamala Harris wins the election, I won't be surprised at all.
00:23:05.000Because we're dealing with a cycle coming out of COVID, with a replacement candidate, with Trump on the ballot for the third time, with all the lawfare and the assassinations, all the things that have gone on.
00:23:16.000This is a cycle that even the best pollsters will tell you.
00:23:22.000So I think, you know, from both a A practical point of view and a sanity point of view, I think your posture is probably a better one than the folks at Mar-a-Lago who are already measuring the drapes in different cabinet departments in the Oval Office.
00:23:41.000I don't think a Harris easy victory is in the cards.
00:23:43.000It could be a Trump easy win, but it could be a very narrow Trump loss as well.
00:23:48.000And the reasons I listed that you repeated back, I think, are the main reasons to think That this could produce a surprise for those who currently believe, as my sources do, that Trump has got the upper hand.
00:24:00.000So let's dive into one of them, which is the abortion topic.
00:24:05.000Mark, have you seen data in recent elections, let's say the last 20 years, where an issue that is not popping in the public issue surveys ends up being determinative or a kind of secret issue, if you will?
00:24:23.000It's a little bit of a difficult thing to kind of get an apples to apples comparison on.
00:24:27.000But I would say in 2016, some of the issues related to forever wars, some of the issues related to economics, some of the cultural issues that Donald Trump talked about, I don't think you would have seen in the polling leading up to Election Day.
00:24:43.000And depending on how the questions were asked, we wouldn't necessarily have even seen it in the exit poll questions.
00:24:47.000I think those issues were more powerful in allowing Donald Trump To narrowly beat Hillary Clinton than the polling leading up to the election suggested, in part because people didn't think to ask about it in the level of detail they should have.
00:25:22.000Again, I'm a contrarian by nature, and I am in far too many group text messages that are a little too cocky for my liking and a little bit too bullish.
00:25:31.000And I say, guys, first of all, this issue is a thermonuclear issue that is far bigger than trade policy.
00:26:01.000It's been in ballot measures, which are a different kettle of fish than a presidential election.
00:26:07.000But yes, there's not a single, that I know of at least, it's certainly generally true, that on these ballot measures they pass much more overwhelmingly than the polling suggested.
00:26:16.000Andrew, do you have a thought here for Mark?
00:26:55.000I think, you know, a lot of the data he's brought forward over the last couple of weeks has cut in the other direction.
00:27:03.000I've not seen that consistently over polls.
00:27:06.000And if it were happening, I'm using the word bleeding.
00:27:09.000Trump wouldn't be ahead in these battleground states where he is largely either even or ahead.
00:27:14.000So I don't think that's a real thing, but it's worth watching.
00:27:18.000I think the bigger problem Trump might have is with turnout rather than who people are saying they're for is getting his folks to the polls because Trump is dependent And Mar-a-Lago will tell you this, on lower propensity voters.
00:27:31.000That's what you all have been focused on, because turning out those folks is a challenge.
00:27:37.000But if you succeed, you change not just the outcome of the election, you change the electorate, if you can get these people to be part of the MAGA coalition.
00:27:45.000How much should we glean or read into early voting?
00:27:50.000So Republicans are off to a quick start in early voting, comparative to prior elections.
00:27:55.000In fact, as of this broadcast right now, Republicans are enjoying elite and early voting in Arizona because they do party affiliation.
00:28:03.000Can this be misleading or how predictive can early voting trends be?
00:28:09.000Well, the more of it that comes in, the more predictive or determinative I would say it is.
00:28:15.000In fact, and again, this is a big if, so I say if, if, if.
00:28:19.000If the current early vote data stays on this trajectory, We won't need to vote on Election Day to know who's going to win.
00:28:28.000Right now, Republicans are doing so well in the early vote, not as well as Democrats, but they don't need to.
00:28:33.000The delta between Republicans and Democrats this time so far is so small.
00:28:40.000And Republicans' advantage on Election Day voting is so large that if this continues, we will know on Election Day before the polls open that Donald Trump has won.
00:28:51.000They're hoping that the first few days are in aberration and they open up a big lead.
00:28:55.000They will not open up, even under the most optimistic scenario for Democrats, the same size lead they had in 2020.
00:29:03.000But they need a bigger lead, substantially bigger lead in these states.
00:29:07.000And in Nevada, Nevada, always say it wrong, which is by acclamation, according to my sources, the best of the seven states for Kamala Harris.
00:29:18.000The current early vote is disastrous for her, including Clark County, where Vegas is the biggest county by far in the state.
00:29:26.000So if this continues, and this is more important for folks who want to understand where the election's headed, this is way more important than any poll you'll read.
00:29:34.000If this continues, as I said, you'll wake up on Election Day.
00:29:38.000You will not need to wait to see who votes on Election Day because Trump's ability to win on Election Day will be unquestioned.
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00:30:51.000So, Mark, if you were to be talking to a Democrat audience and you would try to describe to them, if they're confused, why they're doing worse with Latino voters, for example, a USA Today Suffolk poll.
00:31:02.000And I think this is a little bit rich, to be honest, but it shows Donald Trump up 11 points with Latino voters.
00:31:09.000Again, I think that's a little bit over the top.
00:31:12.000Why they're doing worse with Arab American voters, so on and so forth.
00:31:16.000What would your explanation be just factual to a Democrat who's not in the space all the time that is trying to understand why they're underperforming with some of their key demographics?
00:31:25.000The primary reason would be what I headlined my newsletter this morning, a multiracial working class revolt, primarily on inflation.
00:31:35.000These folks are not revolting and turning to the Democrats for any reason different than the greatest strength Donald Trump has.
00:31:43.000They feel very frustrated by the economy and their role in it.
00:31:46.000and they're turning towards the candidate who they think is more likely to be able to deal with inflation.
00:31:53.000A lot of them don't like the open border.
00:31:55.000A lot of them don't like some of the cultural issues that the Biden-Harris administration has taken positions on.
00:32:02.000But I would say primarily the primary issue for them is the economy.
00:32:06.000And then culturally, Donald Trump has always had, as an entertainer, as a television host, and as a politician, he's always had an appeal to men and particularly younger men through lifestyle things, And we've seen him on podcasts, on TV, broadcasting, cable, and streaming.
00:32:25.000He's making an explicit appeal to those groups.
00:32:28.000And the vice president has not countered it.
00:32:31.000Joe Biden had somewhat of the same problem.
00:32:33.000The vice president has not countered that in policy or in culture in a way that's allowed her to win back the percentage that she would need to win of those groups.
00:32:43.000So just in closing here, as we get closer and closer to the election, I mean, we're two weeks out here.
00:32:50.000And in some ways, the die is mainly cast.
00:32:54.000So what, if anything, could change this race?
00:32:56.000Mark, I guess, from your expertise, considering that early voting is already beginning, and as we do this broadcast, hundreds of thousands of people are voting today.
00:33:04.000Have you ever seen, in this modern era, any news cycle change things?
00:33:09.000I mean, we had the Comey-Hillary-Clinton story, but are you of the belief that what's going to happen is already underway and it's going to largely go interrupted?
00:33:20.000Or is there anything that could potentially on the margins change things?
00:33:23.000I think that the bar for an October surprise having a true impact on the race is pretty high.
00:33:27.000We've already seen assassination attempts and the replacement of one party's presidential nominee and lots of other high wattage events.
00:33:35.000I think if Kamala Harris successfully repelled a Martian invasion, I think that'd probably be something that would affect the trajectory of the race.
00:33:42.000But that's pretty much where I'm putting the bar, guys.
00:33:44.000If it's Martian invasion or higher is what it's going to require for the trajectory of this race to change.
00:33:50.000Mark Halperin, a two-way TV. Thank you so much.
00:33:53.000Come back soon and very insightful and very fair.
00:35:49.000I think women are just realizing, I mean, the dumbest thing in this election is that you're supposed to vote for Kamala because she's a woman.