Josh McCoon, Chair of the Georgia Republican Party, joins the show to talk about early voting in Georgia and why it's so important to get out and vote early in order to have a shot at flipping the governor's seat. Today's episode is sponsored by Noble Gold Investments, a company that specializes in gold and physical delivery of precious metals. Noble Gold is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show and is the Official Gold Sponsor of The Weekly Standard. Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investing and protect your assets by becoming a Noble Gold Investor today! That's where I buy all of my gold! Go to NobleGoldInvestments.com/TheCharlieKirkShow and use the promo code: "ELISSA" to receive $5 and contribute $5 to a charity of your choice. If you like what you hear, please HIT SUBSCRIBE and tell a friend about this podcast and we'll send you a link to the show! Subscribe to our newest episode and become a member! You'll get access to all the latest episodes and special offers, plus we'll get exclusive bonus episodes throughout the election cycle. Thank you so much more information on how to help elect the next president and every other candidate in the 2020 election! Click here to find out more information about our 2020 Primary Day and much more! Thanks for listening and share this podcast with your friends and family! - Charlie Kirk - The Charlie Kirker Show Subscribe and Retweet this episode of the show on Apple Podcasts and other links to our social media platforms! and share it so you can help spread the word to the word out there about what we're listening to Charlie Kirk's new podcast! Tweet me around the world! on your friends can be a little bit more like Charlie Kirk is listening to it! Timestamps: Insta: - Rate, share it on your thoughts on the show and spreading the message out there! & more like it's a good day in the world? Thanksgiving Day is coming soon! #t=1/28/t=8/31/9/27/8/7/30/6/19/19 - I'll send it out to the rest of the world - Thank you, Charlie & other things like that - Thanks, Charlie, Thank you for listening to the podcast?
00:00:24.000Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
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00:01:25.000In Duluth, Georgia, which is typically a bluer area, we have President Donald Trump, Bobby Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, and Jason Aldean coming at the Gas South Arena 6400 Sugarloaf Parkway.
00:01:38.000That sounds like a very Georgia street.
00:02:35.000Only about 5,000 votes returned so far.
00:02:38.000This time four years ago, it was over 400,000.
00:02:42.000So that critical block of votes that put Joe Biden over the top in the certified count has been dramatically reduced from four years ago.
00:02:51.000Those votes that have been returned, about two-thirds are white, over half or over 65.
00:02:57.000So a lot of the data we're looking at, we don't have partisan voter registration in Georgia, but very early returns look favorable for President Trump and the Republican ticket.
00:03:06.000What part of the state is performing well, and do we see a similar early voting surge with the Stacey Abrams cartel in downtown Atlanta, in Gwinnett, in Cobb, in Fulton? Well, what we can say for certain is that the absentee operation from four years ago just isn't there, right?
00:03:29.000I mean, it's 81% lower this time than it was four years ago.
00:04:37.000You're talking about a 15 point delta that she needs to close to just get close in Georgia.
00:04:44.000I'm not saying we're going to win automatically because there's a ton of white liberals that have moved in to Buckhead that can screw all this up, as you well know.
00:04:52.000But talk more about what's happening in the black community in Atlanta.
00:04:55.000Yeah, so I can tell you, I mean, this is anecdotal, but obviously I speak to lots of voters.
00:05:00.000I've been involved in Georgia politics for 20 years.
00:05:02.000I've never had as many conversations with black voters saying they're voting for the Republican candidate for president as I've had this year with black voters saying they're voting for President Trump.
00:05:13.000And that softness in the polling, the fact that she hasn't closed the deal, the fact they're sending Barack Obama to Georgia to try to rally Black voters, particularly Black male voters, shows that they know they have a very significant problem.
00:05:31.000But these data points give us a lot of encouragement that President Trump is really making even more inroads than he did in 2020 with that critical Black vote.
00:05:41.000If we can get to 20% of the Black vote in the state, it will be an early night in Georgia.
00:07:28.000This is not what we were seeing even four years ago.
00:07:32.000So I feel like the enthusiasm is there.
00:07:34.000I feel like people are going to be turning out early next week.
00:07:37.000We're very excited to see when the gun goes off Tuesday morning and people start voting, we'll get a better picture of that.
00:07:44.000But right now I'm very encouraged by what I'm seeing.
00:07:47.000I know these are wonky questions, Josh, but how many people do you project to vote by mail and how many voted by mail in 2020?
00:07:56.000So it was about 1.35 million that voted by mail in 2020.
00:08:01.000And right now, as I'm talking to you today, there have only been 250,000 requests to vote by mail.
00:08:07.000So we know it's going to be dramatically less.
00:08:10.000It's been trending for the last two weeks between 80 and 85 percent of that number.
00:08:16.000Excuse me, 20 to 25 percent of that number.
00:08:20.000So I would expect, you know, between maybe three and 400,000 votes by mail, which will be I got it.
00:08:31.000I got it. I got it. I got to interrupt. So if you were to model how did how did I mean, I think you know this by what margin did Biden win early votes in 2020?
00:09:03.000I just, I mean, sorry to keep interrupting you.
00:09:05.000I know we have a delay because I'm traveling.
00:09:06.000But again, I'm doing all the kind of back of paper math here in my notepad.
00:09:10.000So you had 1.3 million people vote by mail, of which Joe Biden had a net, a net 395,000, which means if it was 1.3 million, that means he...
00:09:31.000So even if Kamala Harris wins vote by mail by similar percentages, if you guys only have 300,000 people voting by mail, she could at best get a net 100,000?
00:09:46.000And she also has collapsing black support, so...
00:09:49.000Yeah, I mean, the problem that the Harris campaign is going to have is they will have to try to convert over a lot of these people that the Biden campaign were able to get to fill out an absentee ballot and return it by mail.
00:10:04.000They're going to have to physically get them to a precinct, either during early voting or election day voting.
00:10:09.000And obviously that is a bigger lift than showing up at somebody's house and
00:10:14.000getting them to fill out a ballot and sticking it in a drop box.
00:10:16.000So I'm encouraged by the fact that we're not seeing the numbers of
00:10:20.000absentee ballot requests that we saw at this time four years ago.
00:10:24.000Look, for all of you guys election integrity experts and election integrity enthusiasts of which I am one, when you have a million less ballots in the system, You're going to have a cleaner election.
00:11:55.000I don't want to read too much into this in a sense where I think victory is, you know, 100%, or by any means, I think it's 50-50 everywhere.
00:12:02.000But in Georgia, Josh McCoon continues with us.
00:12:04.000So Biden got a net 395,000 votes of vote-by-mail in 2020.
00:12:09.000They might get 300 to 400,000 total net vote-by-mail requests.
00:12:15.000That means that Kamala Harris will be in a...
00:12:18.000If she performs the same as Biden, which she probably won't because of the black support erosion, let's just say back of paper math, that's a 200,000 vote deficit.
00:12:27.000Again, but turnout will be down, so you have to kind of understand that...
00:12:31.000Generally, it will be harder to compare apples to apples.
00:12:34.000But point being, Josh, the percentage margins that they were enjoying by vote by mail will not be there in the state of Georgia.
00:12:40.000Therefore, this will be largely won or lost based on who will vote in person early and on Election Day.
00:12:47.000Tell us about Georgia voting culture, about in person early, and is my analysis correct?
00:12:51.000Yeah, so we have a good culture of turning out.
00:12:55.0002020, in a lot of ways, was an anomaly for a whole host of reasons, but we have worked very hard for the last year talking to our voters about how critically important it is to vote in person early, to run up the score, to not let up, And people are responding well to that.
00:13:16.000You know, when we started having those conversations, there was some pushback.
00:13:21.000We've been able to explain the connection between getting our base voters out early to give us more resources to touch those low propensity voters that put us over the finish line.
00:13:33.000I think we're going to see next week really good, strong turnout from Republican strongholds during early voting.
00:13:41.000And so let's just kind of make the final case here.
00:13:44.000What issues are driving Georgia voters the most?
00:13:47.000And to which candidate does that favor in the state of Georgia?
00:13:52.000Well, that's another way we really have the wind at our back, because the issues that Georgians continually say they're most concerned about are the economy and immigration.
00:14:01.000And in all of the polling, President Trump has commanding leads on both of those issues.
00:14:07.000So the discussion in this campaign has largely been focused on What's your economic situation like now?
00:14:16.000And then, of course, the crisis at the border.
00:14:18.000And here in Georgia, we know we've heard these stories all over the country, but obviously it's incredibly powerful.
00:14:24.000The tragedy of Lake and Riley and what that family has experienced has brought the issue of our broken southern border home in a way that is very, very strong with our Republican-based voters and with a lot of middle-of-the-road voters.
00:14:38.000I was in a Ride share two weeks ago with a middle-aged black woman with two high school-aged children.
00:14:45.000And that was the issue she was talking to me about, the broken border.
00:14:48.000And, you know, Donald Trump can solve that problem.
00:14:50.000I know he can. And that's why she was leaning towards Donald Trump.
00:14:53.000So these are the issues that are driving the campaign here in Georgia.
00:14:57.000Yeah, and just talk a little bit, Josh.
00:14:59.000We have about two minutes remaining. It is becoming more of a battleground state because a lot of money is poured in, and also the Atlanta suburbs and exurbs are not as right as they used to be.
00:15:10.000So you've got to run to the finish line.
00:15:12.000Talk about that, Josh, the changing terrain of Georgia politics.
00:15:15.000Sure. You know, we are a more competitive state than we were four years ago, eight years ago.
00:15:21.000But what we do know is that in 2022, with the exception of the U.S. Senate election, we won every statewide race.
00:15:29.000We have a General Assembly, our state legislature controlled by Republicans, our congressional delegation is majority Republican.
00:15:40.000Some of that has to do with the film and television tax credit that has brought a lot of Hollywood To Georgia, there's some other shifting around that.
00:15:48.000But even with your middle-of-the-road persuadable voter, when you're talking about their pocketbook, when you're talking about fentanyl, which has touched almost every family you can talk to in this state in some way, those issues resonate, whether that person considers themselves to be a right-wing Republican or someone in the middle.
00:16:08.000So we have continued to make this campaign and this conversation around Do you want the economy to get better for you and your family?
00:16:16.000And do you want us to finally do something to stem the tide of migrant crime and illegal drugs flowing into our state?
00:16:24.000And I believe we are winning that conversation.
00:16:27.000I believe that the polling reflects that, public and private polling.
00:16:30.000But we've got to run through the tape, not to the tape on November 5th.
00:16:59.000Wanted to get you on a couple topics, but first, update our audience of what is going on in the great state of Arizona.
00:17:05.000Well, somebody put the Republican Party on steroids here because as of yesterday when registration stopped, in Maricopa County, Republicans had a net lead of $175,900.
00:17:23.000Over Democrats. And to put that in perspective, the entire state in 2020 was only net 130,000.
00:17:31.000So right now, Arizona is about a Republican plus seven state, suggesting Trump will probably win Arizona somewhere in the neighborhood of four to five points.
00:17:42.000And it'll be very, very close for Carrie Lake.
00:17:46.000Well, I don't want to make any predictions like that, but we are working in Arizona very hard.
00:17:51.000So the voter registration numbers are significant and profound versus 2020.
00:17:58.000Walk our audience through some of the other counties and what will the statewide conclusion be when it comes to just voter registration data?
00:18:06.000Sure. So Arizona is one giant county, Maricopa, of over 5 million people.
00:18:13.000And the closest other county is Pinal with around 600,000, 700,000 people.
00:19:05.000Just under double what it was in 2020.
00:19:09.000Overall in Arizona we're looking at a total of a Republican net advantage by Election Day of around 300,000 maybe 350,000.
00:19:21.000Registrations are the single most important indicator of how people will vote, not polls.
00:19:28.000A poll is a third party asking somebody what they intend to do at some point in the future.
00:19:34.000A voter registration is what somebody actually did in the past.
00:19:38.000It took action. To register as a Republican.
00:19:42.000So the fact that the state is just swarming to the Republicans is very, very critical in terms of these registrations.
00:19:50.000And we are not alone. Almost every state in the Union, including California and New York, are all moving to Republicans, some faster than others, but all of them are moving right.
00:20:02.000Even New Jersey, they're all moving to the right.
00:20:09.000So we have in Arizona, every county is moving further to the right, but there is this question of non-party identified or independent voters.
00:20:19.000What can you tell us about the behavioral and the voting habits of independence and how large of a composition do they represent electorally in Arizona?
00:20:28.000They are about a third, and as always with Indies, you never know how they're going to vote, but almost every poll has Trump at worst losing them by five points, at best gaining them by ten.
00:20:41.000I mean, it's kind of all over the map, but generally speaking, in Arizona, the independents are much more libertarian oriented, and so they're going to favor somebody who has much more libertarian So how much, let's just say on the lower end, how much can Trump lose independence by and still win the state based on the new voter registration numbers?
00:21:18.000I'm guessing he could probably lose by 10% and still win the state, which isn't going to happen in any universe.
00:21:24.000He'll probably win Indies in Arizona by four or five points.
00:21:28.000Again, I think that the final is going to be someplace in the neighborhood of Trump plus four to Trump plus five.
00:22:35.000They're terrific. Go to charliekirk.com.
00:22:37.000Click on the preborn banner. So talk about the direction of all these other states.
00:22:46.000Arizona, you mentioned, the trend is our friend with voter registration.
00:22:50.000What other states stand out to you in the battleground universe that show that Donald Trump and Republicans have serious momentum?
00:22:58.000Well, I think one of the biggest is Pennsylvania, where at one point, I think it was in 2012, Democrats had a We have a lead of 600,000 over Republicans, and today that number is under 150,000, thanks largely to the efforts of Scott Pressler.
00:23:19.000One analysis I've seen says that the Democrats would have to bank 600,000 early votes to offset the election day, the traditional election day Republican vote.
00:23:33.000Right now, Pennsylvania early ballot requests are trending now more toward Republicans.
00:23:42.000But in almost every state, the early ballot requests have seen a fall-off by Democrats of anywhere from 5 to 11 points, whereas the early ballot requests by Republicans have seen a net gain of 6, 7 points.
00:23:57.000So you've got a shift there of between 10 and 17 points in almost all these states.
00:24:04.000And so we're looking, for example, at Virginia, where they're actually voting.
00:24:08.000And typically what happens is you get a big burst of people voting.
00:24:13.000The first day early voting is available in Virginia and then it begins to tail off for both parties.
00:24:19.000Well, you got the big burst and it began to tail off for Democrats.
00:24:23.000But in Virginia, Republicans have actually accelerated their voting after the first day of early voting.
00:24:31.000So where Virginia right now is about 60, 40 early voting Democrats, which is people say,
00:25:57.000Take it from James Carville, who, when he comes down off his meds every once in a while, actually talks about this and admits it's a huge, huge problem.
00:26:06.000The point is the Democrats don't want to hear it.
00:26:09.000Yeah, and so they're bleeding in these demographics.
00:26:12.000If Kamala Harris is able, though, to run up the score with women, can the math work for her in the sense that she wins 70% of all women voters?
00:26:23.000Is there any indication that will be the case?
00:26:25.000No, because no Democrat wins women like that.
00:26:29.000In fact, Trump won suburban women in 2020 by a small amount.
00:26:39.000The only group he is not really popular with are the Karens, the single mothers, especially the welfare mothers who look at government as their source, their daddy.
00:26:56.000Harris gets that kind of an advantage with women.
00:27:01.000So what is your advice then for President Trump of where to emphasize and focus and where do you think, what state do you think needs the most attention from Trump at this point as we try to run to the finish line?
00:27:14.000Well, the last polling I saw from all the states, especially the emphasis on the internal polling, is that he's up in every single swing state.
00:27:23.000Now, Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute had a very interesting footnote that nobody paid attention to last week.
00:27:30.000And he said that when you include the question, who would your neighbor vote for?
00:27:35.000Which was the critical question in the Trafalgar polls in 2016 that allowed Trafalgar above everybody else except Barris to predict a Trump win.
00:27:46.000When you include that question, Basham said, Trump is outside the margin of error in every state.
00:27:53.000So I would say continue to regularly hit Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, but also hit the next tier of what I see are the next tier of swing states, which is Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, maybe Nevada, and who am I missing?
00:28:18.000Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, because the last poll had Trump within four points in New Mexico.
00:28:26.000What people need to understand is that every election, Trump under polls by 2.1 points.
00:28:34.000Whatever the polls say, you can add 2.1 to Trump and subtract 2.1 from the other guy.
00:28:41.000So if that's the case, that means he's within the margin of error in places like Maine and New Mexico.
00:28:48.000Again, these are going to be tough because of that U-shaped demographic in New Mexico.
00:28:53.000Where you have a great number of fairly wealthy people at Los Alamos and Sandia, Alamogordo, parts of Alamogordo, and then the rest of the state is very poor.
00:29:04.000And you don't have a lot of people in the middle.
00:29:06.000But nevertheless, Trump is close there.
00:29:08.000And I just feel like, you know, as Led Zeppelin saying, the levee is about to break.
00:29:14.000And that all of these third-tier swing states are starting to become genuine battlegrounds now.
00:29:23.000Larry Schweiker, excellent work as always.
00:29:25.000Thank you. We'll have you on again soon.
00:29:27.000Thank you. Yesterday, I chased three ballots, and I'm happy to report Blake, Ryan, and Angelo have all voted.
00:30:29.000She was asked, Stephen Colbert asked Kamala Harris what she would do differently than Joe Biden.
00:30:34.000The second time she's been asked this question on the same day.
00:30:37.000Tell me if this makes any sense to you.
00:30:40.000Playcut72. Polling shows that a lot of people, especially independent voters, really want this to be a change election and that they tend to break for you in terms of thinking about change.
00:30:52.000You are a member of the president administration.
00:30:55.000Under a Harris administration, what would the major changes be and what would stay the same?
00:31:02.000Sure. Well, I mean, I'm obviously not Joe Biden.
00:31:05.000I noticed. And so that would be one change in terms of...
00:31:09.000But also, I think it's important to say with 28 days to go, I'm not Donald Trump.
00:31:18.000And so when we think about the significance of what this next generation of leadership looks like, were I to be elected president, it is about, frankly, I love the American people and I believe in our country.
00:31:34.000I love that it is our character and nature to be an ambitious people.
00:31:47.000And I just believe that we can create and build upon the success we've achieved in a way that we continue to grow opportunity and in that way grow the strength of our nation.
00:32:00.000It's repulsive because she knows that you know that she's not answering it, and she's still talking about, like, oh, our people work so hard.
00:32:09.000He asked you the most simple question possible.
00:32:12.000And if Kamal was serious about winning, she could have answered it a lot differently.
00:32:17.000And I mentioned this before, but she should have said, yes, I think we could have addressed inflation earlier.