On this episode of The Charlie Kirk Show, host Charlie and his guest Brett Gelleszewski and Turning Point USA's CEO Tyler Boyer discuss the early voting numbers from across the state, and how things are looking for both sides of the aisle in Wisconsin on Election Day. They also discuss early voting in Wisconsin and what they are seeing in the rural counties, and what to look out for in the final days of early voting. Thank you for listening to the Charlie and Brett Kirk Show! Subscribe to The Charlie and the Brett Show on Apple Podcasts and let us know what you thought of today's episode! If you like what you hear, please HIT SUBSCRIBE and become a Member! You'll get access to all the latest political news and analysis, including the latest breaking out from CNN, CBS, CNN, FOX, FOX News, and other major news outlets. Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments, a company that specializes in gold and precious metals. It's where I buy all of my gold! Go to noblegold.investments.co/thecharliekirk Show to get 20% off your first month with a 5-piece gold and silver package! Learn more about the Noble Gold Investing Club membership! Click here to become a platinum sponsor! The Charlie & Brett Show is the official gold & Silver Club! Get 5% off the first month's Gold and Silver Membership when you buy a piece of your first-grade gold or Silver Membership! Check out Noble Gold & Silver! We'll be giving you access to the show you'll get 5% OFFered for the entire month of the show, plus a FREE 4-month shipping plan! and a FREE 3-day shipping offer when you sign up to receive $50 or 6-month VIP & 2-months VIP & 3-months of VIP & VIP access to Gold + 2-week shipping! FREE Shipping throughout the mail-in Provenza, plus an additional $99/month, plus all other options, plus 2-day Prime + 3-week VIP & 7-avail + 7-option options! Want to join the show gets an ad-plan? FREE PRICING plan? Click HERE to get 5-day VIP + 7 days of VIP access? and 7-day FREE Shipping & VIP membership, plus $10% OFF OFF + FREE Shipping?
00:00:00.000Hey everybody enjoy this episode become a member members.charliekirk.com that is members.charliekirk.com email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com and become a member to support this program buckle up everybody here we go Charlie what you've done is incredible here maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk Charlie Kirk's running the White House folks I want to thank Charlie.
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00:01:41.000The temps are in the mid-60s, so that's looking really good for people to come out and wait at the polls.
00:01:46.000We're seeing massive lines in areas where we need to rack the score up in, plurality Republican areas.
00:01:52.000So, so far, looking at the in-person front, things are looking promising.
00:01:57.000So, do you feel better on the ground than he did in 2020?
00:02:01.000I feel way better on the ground than I did in 2020.
00:02:04.000I know you guys had Terry Dietrich here on the show last week, and he had mentioned that there was really no effective ground game when it came to early voting in 2020.
00:02:13.000This was the first election cycle that we really honed in on it.
00:02:19.000I mean, it's coming to fruition in front of our eyes.
00:02:20.000I mean, in heavy Republican counties, you're seeing like Washington County, for instance, part of that Wow County, the Milwaukee suburbs.
00:02:26.000They're reporting a 98 percent mail in return rate, which is just crazy in comparison to, say, a 95 percent return rate that you're seeing out of Milwaukee County.
00:02:36.000Based on percentages returns alone, you're seeing a heavy Republican county outvoting a heavy Democrat county.
00:02:42.000So absolutely, I feel better and I'm feeling better by the day as these numbers have continued to come out.
00:02:47.000Are we seeing a big surge out of Milwaukee for Democrats or Dane County?
00:03:26.000We've got, and it's just, it's a total command center in Wisconsin, as Brett's covered.
00:03:30.000We're curing ballots in Wisconsin, the largest curing operation happening for the conservatives in Wisconsin right now, where he's at right now.
00:03:39.000And then, obviously, we're doing all our calls and texts.
00:03:42.000Brett, how are things looking in our rurals with our more rural team?
00:03:51.000What are some of the reports that we're getting from kind of the upper side in between the Fond du Lac and Brown County areas?
00:04:10.000You're seeing a 163% YTD increase in returned absentee ballots compared to 2022.
00:04:19.000So that was kind of the last election cycle that we had anything even close to an early voting ground game.
00:04:26.000I mean, if you're seeing 163%, and that seems to be kind of the trend of all of these rural counties seeing like upwards of 150% increase YTD from 2022 in return ballots in heavy red counties.
00:04:38.000I mean, we're doing the job then that we need to do in racking up the score.
00:04:42.000So, Andrew, do you have a thought for Brett here?
00:04:44.000Well, I mean, Brett, I know you're overseeing, you know, not just Wisconsin, but you've got your eyes on other states, PA, North Carolina, Georgia.
00:04:55.000Give us a smattering of the reports coming in, especially North Carolina.
00:04:59.000We haven't heard much from North Carolina right now.
00:05:01.000Yeah, North Carolina is interesting because that's going to be one of the first states that we hear from tonight.
00:05:06.000They end up ending their polling at 730 Eastern, so we're going to hear from them pretty early.
00:05:12.000Our field staff is reporting long lines in heavy rural areas.
00:05:16.000So, I mean, you're seeing the same trend that you would in a state like Wisconsin or a state like Arizona right now, seeing long lines in areas where we absolutely need to have that.
00:05:25.000So, I mean, the good news is we're going to know about North Carolina pretty soon here, like within...
00:05:32.000So I'm curious here, just like you guys, waiting on pins and needles.
00:05:36.000Brett, have you heard from, back to Wisconsin, have you heard from Hovde in his camp?
00:05:40.000Like, what's the mood on the ground inside his war room?
00:05:44.000The Hovde camp has picked up some momentum the last week here.
00:05:48.000I think the assumption was always, it was just a matter of, you know, the more that Trump performs better here in Wisconsin, that he was going to bring candidates like Eric Hovde up the ballot in the same way that Trump would bring up Cary Lake in Arizona.
00:05:59.000It's become increasingly clear that Hovde has a better path to victory here.
00:06:04.000I mean, I can give you guys an example of a ward that we've had our eye on for some time now, Pewaukee, kind of a heavy Republican stronghold.
00:06:13.000You know, Hovde's going to win if the turnout game is strong, and he's one of those candidates that absolutely can say that.
00:06:19.000It just turned noon here in the central time zone, and we just had one of our guys on the ground go to this polling location, Wagner Park, that we've identified 1,000 conservatives that are not voting.
00:06:29.000They're already reporting a number of 687.
00:07:23.000Like I mentioned, Brett is there helping ringlead the middle of not just getting people out to the polls, but now we're moving to curing ballots.
00:07:35.000And so this is the thing that we're going to talk about a lot over the next few days, especially if we have tight races in some of these states.
00:07:41.000Yeah, and we own this in Arizona, Wisconsin, because we have the largest field teams in both states.
00:07:46.000And it's not just presidential, right?
00:07:50.000That's a really good question, Andrew, because historically what would happen is in a presidential cycle, Or a Senate cycle, what will happen is the campaign or the NRSC will fund people if it helps them.
00:08:12.000Then we lose these down ballot races because there's no one there to cure.
00:08:16.000So this is part of the reason why the outside infrastructure is so important.
00:08:19.000This is one of the many critical reasons why.
00:08:22.000If you have outside groups that stay, They help you not just win the presidential, not the Senate, not just the congressional, but all the way down to every legislative race, every city council race, every school board race.
00:08:34.000So what we're going to be doing in Arizona and Wisconsin is regardless if President Trump blows this thing out of the water, we're going to still be there curing for everyone.
00:08:46.000And Brett, you've been through some of these press inquiries along with the rest of the team where they go, It's like, no, this is not untested.
00:09:01.000To Tyler's point, the Democrats have been using outside groups for basically decades now.
00:09:06.000They're the ones that set up the system the way it is, and we noticed it was actually outperforming The sort of centralized power at the RNC model.
00:09:15.000So this is actually a good thing for the movement.
00:09:16.000I want everybody to get that through their minds, that we reject the premise that this is somehow bad or untested.
00:09:21.000This is actually the way it should have been set up, because groups like Turning Point and others are going to be there for the long haul.
00:09:28.000I want everyone to email me freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:09:30.000Include the state that you are in when you send us your stories.
00:11:57.000Which, I don't know, maybe it's just the semantics thing.
00:11:59.000I think we're going to do better with working-class women than people think.
00:12:02.000I think that, like, white girl women, that's a whole separate thing, like, you know, kind of white, college-educated, but working-class women, I think we're going to do better than people think.
00:12:34.000But today will offset some of that, or should offset some of that.
00:12:37.000And so as we're seeing these high Republican numbers, these high independent numbers, they're going to tilt, they should tilt, based off of historics, a little bit more Republican.
00:12:49.000Because we're running out of time here.
00:12:50.000So one of our managers, Jordan, who's incredible on the western front in Wisconsin, actually shared a message from our group chat today from one of the voters he talked to, a quote, and the voter said, to be honest, I probably wouldn't have voted unless you would have...
00:15:04.000Well that makes up for mistakes or discrepancies with lower turnout with the high propensities.
00:15:10.000That makes up for slightly unaccounted for variances between bleed from the left and the right, meaning people that cross over from Trump to Kamala and Kamala to Trump.
00:16:11.000Right now, this is the largest ballot curing operation that the state of Wisconsin has ever seen.
00:16:17.000Because there really is no standardized ballot curing program that exists here in Wisconsin.
00:16:22.000Unlike a state like Arizona, where you can ballot cure for five days after the election, you can only ballot cure on election day here in Wisconsin.
00:16:30.000This is the dark horse that I don't think the left sees going on.
00:16:33.000We are making literal thousands of calls and sending 200-plus people on the ground to doors to help assist in curing ballots of likely Trump voters.
00:16:43.000Guys, I cannot tell you the impact that this could have over the next 24 hours.
00:17:50.000We've got about half a million people that have voted so far today.
00:17:53.000We're on trend for about 1.2 million total turnout today, which would set a record For Georgia turnout.
00:17:59.000As I've said to you before, I believe we ended early voting in the lead, which is unprecedented for us.
00:18:06.000But today what I'm hearing again is very strong turnout from our rural counties and rural precincts.
00:18:13.000Lots of precincts reporting in that have already hit 80% of The election day total four years ago, so on trend to overperform in all really rural precincts, particularly in North Georgia.
00:18:27.000Georgia's 14th district, Marjorie Taylor Greene's district.
00:18:30.000And then the city of Atlanta, very quiet, almost eerily quiet in terms of turnout at the moment.
00:18:37.000So obviously there's time left for a late surge to emerge, but right now we are feeling very good about where the votes are coming from and the volume of votes we see coming in hour over hour.
00:18:50.000Okay, so tell me, in 2020, what did the urban areas look like at this time?
00:18:56.000And also, didn't they have more absentee ballots in the urban areas?
00:19:14.000This time, we've had 250,000 absentee ballots returned I would just today left, so very few absentee ballot by mail votes.
00:19:24.000Most of the urban counties and Democratic districts we look at are underperforming from 2020.
00:19:31.000They were underperforming in the early vote.
00:19:33.000They are continuing to underperform in the election.
00:19:37.000I actually believe when we close the books today that a lot of these areas are going to be under their total vote for 2020.
00:19:45.000And obviously we've added almost a million voters to our voter rolls in the last four years.
00:19:50.000So to see that they're not even meeting the turnout from four years ago while we're seeing consistently over performance, more turnout, it looks really good for us heading into the final stretch.
00:20:03.000Okay, so Josh, we're not celebrating anything, but tonight, if we win Georgia...
00:20:17.000We need to surge, but I'll just say, if it goes our way, Josh, you deserve a lot of credit, and we're going to be talking, we're going to have you on, we're going to really debunk, you know, kind of not debunk it, but debrief on it.
00:20:27.000Now Terry Dietrich, who is our Waukesha man.
00:20:30.000Terry, we just had a great conversation with Brett.
00:20:34.000As you know, Brett's doing a great job.
00:20:36.000Terry, I want you to say, how do you feel right now versus four years ago?
00:20:41.000I would say certainly our early voting, which brought us Equal or above the Dems makes me feel great because we weren't even close in 2020.
00:20:52.000I mean, it was two-thirds, one-third, and I would say right now we've got the slight lead on that.
00:20:58.000I'm seeing 51, 52, 48, somewhere in that.
00:21:02.000So coming into game day here, I mean, I really feel good.
00:21:05.000So far, we've seen some pretty heavy voting out here in kind of the western part of Waukesha.
00:21:10.000Our concern, of course, is over in Brookfield and Elm Grove and right along that Milwaukee borderline that was just redistricted here.
00:22:09.000He loves dogs and he's on a mission to help as many as he can.
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00:22:39.000Go to ruffgreens.com slash Kirk, ruffgreens.com slash Kirk.
00:22:47.000Andrew, you have a thought for Terry or Josh here, but this is the all-star team, everybody.
00:22:50.000And let me just say, email me right now, freedom at charliekirk.com, your successful voting story and how you have brought a new vote to the polls.
00:23:02.000Yeah, I mean, what I'm hearing, it sounds like a lot, and maybe you guys can confirm this or debunk it, but what I'm hearing across the board is that we're seeing really good turnouts in the rurals, we're driving up the score there, and the urban centers seem to be a little bit quiet.
00:23:20.000In PA, we're told that the urban core tends to kind of liven up as the day goes on.
00:23:27.000Is that what we're expecting in Milwaukee, in Atlanta?
00:23:31.000Is there a tendency for the Dems to come out in the afternoon in the urban core?
00:23:36.000Well, I'll just say in Georgia, Democrats tend to do very well in the early part of early voting, and they don't turn out as much on Election Day.
00:23:47.000So the situation we find ourselves in in this election is they really need to have very significant turnout in the next few hours.
00:23:56.000I can tell you that Whitfield County, Dalton, and North Georgia has already hit 80% of their 2020 election day number with five hours of voting to go.
00:24:05.000Bartow County, right outside of Atlanta, huge Republican stronghold.
00:24:09.000They're tracking ahead of their 2020 numbers.
00:24:12.000Cherokee County, Catoosa County on track to meet or exceed 2020 numbers.
00:24:17.000And we're just not seeing that in Fulton County or Clayton County or DeKalb County.
00:24:21.000They are not approaching those 2020 levels.
00:24:24.000And obviously, that was a very close election when all of that happened.
00:24:28.000So if we're exceeding our targets in these key precincts, I think that we're on trend for a good day.
00:26:44.000Well, I'll mention one thing about Atlanta and Georgia is we saw really high turnout.
00:26:50.000Among black female voters during early voting, but they were really approaching the ceiling of those voters as we were getting into Friday, which we had almost 300,000 people vote on Friday.
00:27:01.000So I think part of what we're seeing is a lack of enthusiasm among black male voters and not there aren't black female voters still available to go out and vote.
00:27:11.000They're literally running out of those.
00:27:13.000So I think I think that is at least what is driving the lack of turnout we're seeing in Atlanta right now.
00:27:20.000In Milwaukee, you know that on Friday night we had President Trump in the same Pfizer Forum, downtown Milwaukee.
00:27:29.000It was a very strategic move by the Trump team.
00:27:31.000I give him a lot of credit because I would love to have him out here in Waukesha, but we put him downtown.
00:27:56.000Now, you know, there's always a surprise at the polls down there because it is not trustworthy for sure.
00:28:02.000We're all over it with the election integrity team.
00:28:04.000But I mean, I've been around a while, and I've seen Milwaukee when it's up and crazy, like for Obama, and I've seen it when it's down, and I've got to tell you that unless they have some kind of surge I don't know about in the next four or five hours, I think that number is going to be down.
00:28:19.000I think Dane's going to be huge, and so that offsets, and obviously the Weill County's out here.
00:28:25.000We've been infiltrated, and we've got a really pound Andrew, do you want to go through this Amish thing really quick?
00:30:35.000Love the fact that when Jack and I talked six months ago, He pushed in the fact that we not only needed lawyers, but we needed qualified, trained lawyers who are pit bulls to get in there and do that, and I see that here in Wisconsin, finally, which is great.
00:30:50.000Out here in Waukesha County, we trained 479 I think we're in really good shape that way.
00:31:07.000Our state statute, frankly speaking, is the problem.
00:31:10.000We've got to clean up some of these irregularities and gray areas, and they're unfortunately being interpreted by various clerks in the Wisconsin Election Commission in very strange ways that causes a real challenge.
00:31:21.000As far as us being there in their face, watching what's going on, I think I feel real good about it.
00:31:27.000I know in Dane County, we're doing the same thing.
00:31:30.000Up in Brown County and Green Bay, the same.
00:31:32.000So we've got good presence on the college campuses.
00:31:35.000So we're much, much better, much more prepared than we were in 2020.
00:31:39.000Okay, I have one more question here, and then we'll wrap it up with Terry as well.
00:32:40.000We can take the time to drive to a polling place and be in and out in five minutes and get this thing done for Donald Trump and the Republican ticket.
00:34:48.000What do you think about our Presidente?
00:34:50.000I like Malay, but I hope we never have to get Exactly.
00:34:52.000So I wanted to highlight this because he donated $200, which sounds like a lot.
00:34:55.000That is $0.20 in U.S. dollars, and that is because they have had hyperinflation there, which we don't want to have in the United States.
00:35:03.000We don't want to be bailed out by our own Malay in 10 years or 20 years or 50 years.
00:35:08.000And so that is why we're hoping that tonight's result is what we need.
00:35:13.000Andrew, what are we seeing and what are we hearing right now?
00:35:15.000By the way, the amount of Wisconsin emails we're getting right now of people that are bringing out new voters, I mean, just from a Richter scale standpoint, I like the vibe out of Wisconsin right now.
00:35:25.000So the one question, and I want us to all take some humble pie.
00:35:29.000I mean, obviously, we like some of the trends we're seeing.
00:35:31.000I'm not trying to get us on a downer note.
00:35:33.000I just want to remind everybody that 2020 was COVID. We are not in COVID. A lot of Dems voted by mail, and they might have changed their voting habit back to voting on Election Day, and you need to emotionally prepare for that.
00:36:27.000But again, if these emails are any window, I'm just being honest.
00:36:30.000Again, we could be totally hopium right now.
00:36:32.000This could be totally, I just want to be clear.
00:36:34.000But if these emails are any indication of a broader trend, I have like 3,000 emails of first-time voters, of people that are over the age of 30.
00:36:59.000Americans are tired and frustrated by a stalling economy, inflation, endless wars, and the relentless assault on our values.
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00:37:54.000That is patriotmobile.com slash charlie, patriotmobile.com slash charlie.
00:38:01.000Email us your successful voting story.
00:38:03.000I'm going to read some of these first-time voters.
00:38:04.000Charlie, I'm a first-time voter, 38 years old, never voted before.
00:38:53.000I just wanted to say thank you for opening my eyes upon this election.
00:38:56.000This is my second time voting and I was on the fence about who I was going to vote for this time.
00:38:59.000I'm a previous Trump voter and I was going to change my mind, but upon watching your podcast and doing my own research, I can tell that Trump is the best candidate for me.
00:39:07.000I just wanted to reiterate on thanking you again for what you have done for me and for others upon your podcast and going out to speaking to Gen Z voters like myself and reaching out to them and teaching them the ways on how America should be and we should put American citizens first over others.
00:41:24.000And what Democrats like to do is basically run up the score in Clark County And sometimes they have an 80 to 100,000 voter advantage, and there's just not enough votes left in the state to overcome that.
00:41:34.000And so what we saw this year, which was really encouraging for Trump and other Republicans, is that the Clark County voter edge, obviously we don't know how nonpartisans or minor party voters are voting, the voter edge for Democrats in Clark County was about 18,000 going into Election Day.
00:41:50.000And so if you go to four years ago, what Democrats had was around a 45,000 It was about 42,000 voter edge in Nevada, and this year it was about 42,000 voter edge for Republicans, which is just, I mean, it's an almost 90,000 voter swing in a state that Biden won by less than 34,000 votes.
00:42:11.000So you're going into Election Day with Republicans in the lead.
00:42:18.000And the other thing that usually happens is Republicans do very well on Election Day.
00:42:22.000They outperformed Democrats, but we're also seeing something a little bit different this time, where Democrats are seeing a significant boost in turnout on Election Day.
00:42:33.000Right before I came on the air here, I actually got some numbers, so you have to apologize.
00:42:37.000I'm looking down and doing this in real time.
00:42:40.000Compared to four years ago, Democrats are up 7,500 voters in Clark County.
00:42:46.000Again, that's the Democrat stronghold.
00:42:47.000They went from 5,700 voters four years ago voting by 10 o'clock Election Day in person to over 13,000.
00:42:57.000Republicans four years ago had a lead of about 6.2 thousand voters, and that was actually probably closer to eight.
00:43:11.000And what we've seen, we've actually seen more Republicans show up, but we've seen a greater number of Democrats show up than in past years.
00:43:19.000And so, you know, obviously everyone wants to know how the election is going to go.
00:43:23.000I'd love to know how the election is going to go.
00:43:25.000What we do know is there is a 90,000, almost 90,000 voter swing compared to where we were four years ago going into Election Day.
00:43:34.000And so while it's not what we expected with Democrats doing better on Election Day, they haven't yet produced the margins that they would need to really, really dig into that 90,000 voter swing that I've been talking about.
00:43:52.000Nevada, but I've been, unfortunately, out of state, exiled in Communist California for a number of years.
00:43:58.000But, Victor, I saw some tweets from you that were getting shared around.
00:44:03.000You were essentially analyzing the John Ralston prediction.
00:44:08.000He predicted that Nevada was going to go narrowly, I guess like 0.3 percentage point, less than a point, for Kamala Harris.
00:44:16.000And it sort of shocked everybody because we're all looking at the early vote numbers as well, which is essentially, as you said, about a 90-vote swing towards the Republicans, towards Trump.
00:44:27.000Break down what essentially you're seeing in his numbers.
00:44:31.000Do you take issue with any of his assumptions, any of his predictions?
00:44:38.000Well, to be a little cliche here for Las Vegas, basically Democrats are holding a 7 and a jack, and they need to draw an 8, 9, and a 10 for a straight.
00:44:57.000I don't think they're going to win it by major margins, but that's possible.
00:45:01.000And then they need basically an unprecedented amount of mail ballots still to come in.
00:45:07.000And one of the crazy things in Nevada that happens, and one of the reasons we're not going to have results probably for three days, is that all the ballots don't have to be in by Election Day.
00:45:15.000They can be mailed in and then they can be received up to four days after the election.
00:45:20.000And further complicating it is that you can go to the polling place and drop off your mail ballot and we won't know how many of those ballots there are until tomorrow.
00:45:30.000And so basically Democrats need a huge, huge surge We're good to go.
00:45:55.000Republicans are just a major margin of victory.
00:45:57.000So, Victor, we talked so much about Clark County.
00:46:32.000Republicans have a 43,000 voter lead, and right now you would say that's around 47,000 voter lead in the state, with the looming mail drop-off ballots as kind of an unknown.
00:46:46.000So Washoe County, four years ago at this point, before Election Day, Democrats were up by about 400 votes.
00:46:52.000Currently, Heading into Election Day, Republicans were up by, I think, I want to say it was around 7,800 votes.
00:46:58.000So a pretty significant shift in Washoe.
00:47:01.000And what we've seen in the Washoe numbers, let me just do this on the fly.
00:47:05.000So far, Republicans have outvoted Democrats by about 1,000 people through 10 a.m.
00:47:18.000Republicans still have a lead in Washoe.
00:47:21.000And so I expect that Republicans are going to do better in terms of voting than they did four years ago.
00:47:28.000And so just to circle back on kind of that last assumption, if you think Democrats are going to pull it out in Nevada, you also need nonpartisan voters to break for Democrats in a strong way.
00:47:41.000You know, I don't know what everyone's voting.
00:47:43.000What I do know is that nationally there have been all of these stories about how Kamala Harris is struggling to motivate young Black and Hispanic voters.
00:47:52.000And if you look at Las Vegas and to a lesser extent Washoe, who do Democrats need to turn out?
00:47:57.000Well, they needed to turn out young Black and Hispanic voters.
00:48:00.000And if you look at those parts of the metro area, Those are the parts where Democrats are missing votes.
00:48:07.000And so I still think that the simplest explanation for what's happening in Nevada is Kamala Harris couldn't motivate that set of voters that everyone's been talking about for months at this point.
00:48:59.000And so what we saw four years ago is these rural Nevada counties, as you said, are small, but they're, you know, very, very strong Republican.
00:49:08.000And four years ago, they turned out 85 plus percent of registered voters in many cases.
00:49:13.000And so, you know, if you're looking at it, you know, rural Nevada has outvoted Outvoted Clark County heading into Election Day by 5 or 10 percentage points.
00:49:22.000And I anticipate that that will continue, that those rural counties will have a lot of Trump and Sam Brown for U.S. Senate ballots.
00:51:11.000I'm telling you, the amount of working class people that are emailing me from Wisconsin right now, saying they brought five friends, six friends, everyone's talking about Trump, formerly Dem areas, and the early voting wasn't great for them.
00:51:23.000And by the way, you win North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Trump is president.
00:51:28.000Yeah, you essentially take PA off the board.
00:51:31.000Assuming we hold Iowa, of course, Charlie.
00:51:33.000But, yeah, I mean, listen, we're getting a ton of incoming saying rurals are – there's lines out the door, historic turnout, urban cores seem depressed.
00:51:43.000If that holds, which is a huge if, we're going to see what happens.
00:51:48.000You saw Clark County should give everybody a little bit of pause.
00:51:52.000Clark County is having a good day for Democrats on Election Day.
00:51:55.000We're still holding the advantage overall in Clark County.
00:52:01.000But if they can do it in Clark, they can do it in some other places.
00:52:04.000The other – and Victor, I think, pinpointed this really well.
00:52:07.000The other X factor in Nevada is that vote-by-mail drop, that they're going to keep counting for days.
00:54:52.000Charlie, the reason we pulled this is you were actually looking at it on the screen here as CNN was playing this because we have a wall full of all the networks playing so we can observe and monitor everything that's going on.
00:55:06.000Anyways, we pulled the clip because it was actually pretty interesting.
00:55:09.000This is right here in Maricopa County, CNN interviewing a voter, 107.
00:57:16.000Another email that I sent you guys here, which is great.
00:57:19.000Charlie, University of Wisconsin, first-time voter.
00:57:21.000Charlie from UW-Madison student, who got my entire friend group to go vote for Trump today after getting them to come to your event in Madison, currently wearing the MAGA hat you signed.
00:58:26.000It's like, oh, well, Scranton is high and Luzerne is low and center is up and Philadelphia is here and Pittsburgh is there and Erie is there.
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01:03:33.000Unless you're talking to people who are township supervisors or ward bosses that are literally in charge of looking at how many votes have been counted today, you don't know anything.
01:03:46.000So, but what I, what I was referring to in my tweet, Charlie, is a story that I got, which is an interesting story.
01:03:53.000And I think it makes sense as to what we're seeing.
01:03:56.000And basically in the final few hours, there was like a two week period through all early voting and the Harris team didn't want anyone's help.
01:04:05.000They wanted Biden, team Biden to stay away.
01:04:07.000And eventually he made that comment, right?
01:04:10.000Which when they brought him in, he made the garbage comment and they were mad.
01:05:39.000You know, and I'm not going out and voting for the next one just because they bang on my door and, you know, try to usher me over to to drop it in the box.
01:05:47.000So I just I bring that up because the story that was just relayed to me tells me that the old schoolers like the Obama people are trying to save this thing last minute.
01:08:00.000I mean, typically these states vote together, but we'll see.
01:08:03.000The problem also with that argument is that as Republicans have registered more voters in states like Nevada, the registration game is not sexy, but it's very important.
01:08:12.000And when you see turnout disparities like we're seeing in Nevada right now, Everyone expected Democrats and Clark to vote at a higher rate, but they're not voting at their level or outperforming their level or their share of the vote outstanding.
01:08:29.000So when that happens, what can typically go down is that not only are your voters more energized, but your independent-leaning voters are more energized.
01:08:38.000These are people who are registered as other or unaffiliated and We all, you know, we call them independents, but the truth is independents are made up of mostly people who don't have a partisan registration, but they have partisan leanings, a small share that says they don't agree with either party, and then a smaller share that says that they have, you know, something in common with both.
01:09:01.000It's possible she could do it, Charlie.
01:09:03.000But to hitch your wagon to this idea when independents could in the end in like Washoe turn out to actually lean to Trump because they're going to vote for Trump in the rolls.
01:09:13.000The other numbers that you see being reported on the hour in places like Elk and these other counties, they're going to vote for Trump, right?
01:09:22.000In Clark, Indies typically or other typically votes for Democrats.
01:09:27.000I mean, Washoe, that is – we don't know.
01:09:29.000I mean they voted for Lombardo and they voted for against by a hair but against Laxalt in 22.
01:09:37.000So they split their vote in Washoe, those other voters.
01:09:40.000So it's hard to – I have family members in Washoe, Rich, that have done the same on the Senate.
01:09:49.000Yeah, I'm just going to say now we just got the update in Washoe and Republicans maintained an election day.
01:09:55.000They went into election day in Washoe County with an early vote lead and they now have just maintained, slightly expanded it by a few votes to 1,000.
01:10:03.000I think it's like 1,090 net over Democrats.
01:10:06.000So if their whole presupposition is that those voters are going to vote for her and that's going to put her over, man, that sounds shaky to me.
01:10:14.000That sounds like the Trump campaign in 2020 trying to convince me that their Election Day vote is going to come in so big on Election Day, it's going to overcome Joe Biden's lead.
01:10:24.000And as you know, better than most are in Arizona.
01:10:27.000You know, they called it for Joe Biden immediately because his lead was so big.
01:10:30.000I don't agree with that call, but it's hard to overcome a deficit.
01:10:34.000So, Rich, I want to read this email here, and I want you to tell me about Wisconsin.
01:10:38.000Again, we've spent a lot of time and money on Wisconsin.
01:10:40.000We're not in charge of Wisconsin, for the record, right, Andrew?
01:11:41.000It's anecdotal, of course, but when my kids were home from school today and I obviously was getting on the early vote train, but they wanted to go see how it was done.
01:11:52.000We know someone down there, so I walked them down there thinking I'll be in and out, they'll get a quick tour, and there was a line of men.
01:11:59.000This is an area, specifically that area Trump won by 21 points in North Carolina back in 2020.
01:12:06.000I have never seen a line this long since I moved here.
01:12:51.000You know, we got somebody texted us there.
01:12:53.000They were talking to a friend that a lot of Democrats want to vote on Election Day in PA. This was in Pennsylvania because they want their daughter to see them vote for the first woman president.
01:13:54.000Look at how difficult it was to change it for Republicans, right?
01:13:58.000Months of research, months of door knocking, months of text messages, months of getting Donald Trump himself to say vote early, vote early.
01:14:06.000It takes a lot to change voter behavior.
01:15:55.000And what it means, let's say Republicans didn't turn out in rural counties in a statewide race.
01:16:02.000Not only will they get less, obviously, less raw votes because of that, but their margins will actually shrink because the turnout advantage to Democrats means they will improve their margins there.
01:16:14.000If Kamala Harris's Turnout shrinks compared to Donald Trump's.
01:16:19.000It means his margin will marginally increase as well, even in urban areas.
01:16:25.000He'll do better in these urban areas because more of his voters are in that electorate, even in urban areas.
01:16:32.000That's like something that's just a dynamic that tends to happen.
01:16:42.000But, yeah, I mean, there's hard – it's hard to find a good data point for the Harris campaign where you can point to it and say, there it is.
01:16:52.000Charlie, we polled these people all the way to the end.
01:16:55.000There did not seem to be this meaningful break of Republican women – That they're arguing for.
01:17:01.000In fact, their polling and a few, what looks to be outlier polls, are the only data points suggesting that.
01:17:08.000You can go to Cuyahoga County, by the way.
01:17:48.000So what happens when you see turnout disparities like this, even in some of these urban centers, you're going to see more Trump voters in the mix, and he'll wind up even doing better in some of these urban areas if Democrats don't get these shares up.
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01:19:02.000Okay, Rich, you're welcome to make a call, but if it's about Arizona, hold your horses.
01:19:10.000Okay, so I can't reveal who I'm getting this from, but again, if you don't have people in Pennsylvania who are in the positions to give you this stuff, then you really can't know.
01:19:22.000So not from me, but there is in turnout in Bucs, it really does appear that it's in all the right places for Donald Trump.
01:19:32.000So we're breaking down these things by precincts Donald Trump narrowly won, narrowly lost, is more educated, is not more educated.
01:19:40.000And the turnout is lower in the deep precincts.
01:19:44.000All the right places is the proper way to just give it the easy breakdown here to make a very, very long story short without going through lower one, lower two, and all these different township precincts.
01:20:12.000There are bellwether precincts and townships that I'm going to be looking at immediately when those polls close and those results are reported.
01:20:20.000Because you have places like Ben Salem, Charlie, voted for Trump in 16, voted for Biden in 20.
01:20:26.000You know, they're going to tell us a lot right away.
01:20:29.000Now, we may not have all of their votes.
01:20:32.000In Pennsylvania, we'll get the early first, then we'll get the election day, all right?
01:20:37.000And then later, they have until 8 o'clock around Bucks, for instance.
01:20:41.000There's like 11 drop areas to have until 8 o'clock to put that ballot in the drop, and then people will go around and collect them, and then we'll have to wait.
01:20:49.000There are an unusual number of Republican provisional ballots.
01:20:53.000It's just the nature of the beast trying to get them to vote early.
01:20:56.000If you waited about a week out from Election Day, you probably didn't get your ballot in time, and you cannot now just go and vote in person.
01:21:04.000So they're going to have to vote by provisional ballots.
01:21:07.000So I'm telling you that not to cause any kind of like disturbance, but last time those provisionals went for Biden pretty significantly.
01:21:15.000That is probably not going to be the case this time because a lot of them, you can see it clear as day, a lot of them are the product of Republicans trying to get their vote in early, doing this for the first time, you know, in this robust and just not getting some of their ballots back for their voters in time.
01:21:42.000I'm looking at the flags that we're getting in the YouTube channel.
01:21:47.000We're getting people from Greece, Serbia, Brazil, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Canada, Argentina, We'd love them, but I'd trade them all for a couple from Western Wisconsin.
01:22:00.000I'll tell you right now, the Wisconsin emails are amazing.
01:22:04.000I'm not going to make any calls, but...
01:23:49.000Okay, so we've got some really good signs, and I like some of the breaks that we're getting in Maricopa County, where GOP are still outpacing Dems.
01:23:56.000Look, there's a lot of independents, though.
01:24:43.000And I would say that there's, you know, the...
01:24:47.000The mood of the country is different, so you can't base everything off of what happened in 2020.
01:24:52.000You could see more women breaking their family unit vote and essentially lying to their husbands, or maybe they're not lying, they're just telling their husbands they're going to vote a certain way.
01:25:02.000So these are the things we're looking for, and we're going to keep an eye on these urban cores to see if they pick up.
01:25:07.000But the fact that they're depressed and enthusiasm is down and there is an enthusiasm gap, You also have to sort of wonder, Charlie, in a place like Pennsylvania, a place where Joe Biden had extensive ties, right, politically, will that same machine that the Democrats have been running, is it going to come out the same way for Kamala?
01:25:25.000And I think that's an open question, and right now we're not seeing indications that they're going to be doing what they need.
01:25:30.000Yeah, look, right now Atlanta is, I'm not going to make any predictions, but Georgia looks good.
01:25:35.000I'm just going to say that was one thing.
01:25:36.000I have almost no attachment at the state, so I can say, I mean, we have a couple staff, but nothing significant, right?