Trump wins the Senate race in Pennsylvania and Bob Casey refuses to concede. What will happen with all the outstanding absentee and provisional ballots? What does that mean for the outcome of the race? And what does it mean for what could be a very close race in November? Today's show is brought to you by CharlieKirkShow, a company that specializes in gold and precious metals and physical delivery of precious metals. Charlie is the Founder and President of Turning Point USA, a youth organization dedicated to fighting for freedom and freedom on campuses across the U.S. and around the country. Charlie has been a long time friend of mine and I am so proud to have him as a supporter of my organization. Charlie and I have been friends for over 20 years and I know he will always be a loyal supporter of our organization and I hope you do the same. Charlie is a wonderful human being and I can't wait to see what he has to say about the results of the night. - DanTheCharlieKirk Show - The Charlie Kirk Show - Charlie Kirk - TurnPoint USA - Turnpoint USA - Charlie's Social Media - Turn Point USA - TurnPointUSA - TurnpointUSA - Thank you for supporting the show! Thank you Charlie, Charlie, for being a great friend of the show, Dan, for all the support, thank you, and God bless you, God Bless You, Blessings and Blessings! - Kristy, Kristy and Thank You, Kris, for coming to the House of PA! - Dan, Thank you, Charlie - Charlie, Thank You for coming, Dan and God Blessings, Kris and Good Luck! - Thank You! - Cheers, Cheers! - CHECK OUT THE CHEVERYONE! - P.M. - CHEERS! - THE CHERLYKIRK - THE KEEP THE KITCHEN CHECKOUT! - CHEERLEKIRKS! - JUICY, MURDERERS, JAY & KELLY, RYAN, JOSEPH, JACOB, P. BONUS, JORDY, DADDY, JEASTER, JOKER, JAMIE AND KEVIN, JAMES, AND KAREN, JAWNSY, AND JAYE, MARYLEE, AND PENNY, AND TAYLOR, MAYO AND KERLYNN AND KASSY!
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00:02:18.000So, we're hearing now that there's apparently about 100,000 of these adjudicated or need to be adjudicated slash provisional ballots that are outstanding.
00:02:28.000Right now, McCormick, if we look at the majority of these as mail-ins, they might not be, but I'm going to give the worst-case scenario.
00:02:36.000Right now, McCormick has been averaging 35% of all mail-in votes to KC65. If those were to all be mail-ins, or if it followed that trend, which is the worst he's doing, right?
00:02:50.000That means 35,000 of those votes, if they all counted, would go to McCormick.
00:04:26.000If you look at it, what is the problem with the vote that makes it a provisional or makes it one that has to be adjudicated?
00:04:33.000For a lot of the mail-ins, right, in 2020, we had record mail-in numbers, so there were a lot more problems.
00:04:38.000But for these mail-ins, it's pretty simple.
00:04:40.000You have to sign it, you have to date it, you have to use the secrecy sleeve.
00:04:44.000And so a lot of times what happens is there's going to be different batches where if Casey wants to challenge that they should count, even though they're provisional, he's going to have to try to challenge those case by case, batch by batch.
00:04:59.000But once again, the courts are not stern about this.
00:05:03.000They are not on our side because judges don't want to throw out votes.
00:05:07.000They don't want to be called election deniers.
00:05:10.000And so I always tell people, anytime this thing goes to the courts because the Democrat is pushing, expect a lot of those votes to count.
00:05:18.000Now, the one outlier we haven't talked about is still Cambria County.
00:05:21.000Jack, my sources on the ground are telling me that Cambria County is not fully in, but the numbers on some of these sites are jumping to 95%.
00:05:29.000Based on my math, it's still about 50 to 60% in.
00:05:49.000Cambria County is a 70-30 district, 70-30 county.
00:05:52.000So if you look at the split right now, I believe that what you're saying is true, that the areas that are yet to come in are the Republican rural areas outside of Johnstown.
00:06:18.000And so when I'm looking at the local races to kind of see where they're at, I mean, I just still think, based on my math, 37,000 voters have voted in Cambria County this cycle.
00:06:30.000I'm talking all voters in Cambria County in 2020.
00:06:33.000So you figure based on that, there's still another There's 33,000 ballots that need to come in in Cambria County, and they're going to be, I would say, almost two to one.
00:07:46.000We have approximately a million ballots left at the beginning of today, which ran into the afternoon because in Arizona, apparently, we can't release data until after 5 p.m.
00:09:17.000A couple more of those drops that are in favor of Carrie Lake really puts her over the top very quickly.
00:09:25.000Now remember, we have, and we can throw up this map again, I think I dropped it, Andrew, if you're watching in the chat.
00:09:32.000This is the estimated uncounted ballots this was before the beginning of the night that just happened just a few minutes ago I'll give this here to the thought crime jet here.
00:09:49.000We have about a half million ballots left in Maricopa County, but they are trending every day better for Lick.
00:10:50.000And then in addition to the rest of the state is going to be deep red, about 65 to 70 percent for Kerry.
00:10:56.000So the big question mark still remains, does Ruben have enough gas in the tank left to maintain his lead in Maricopa County?
00:11:05.000What it looks like is the answer to that question would be no.
00:11:08.000Now, I'll say one more thing and Jack, you can jump in here.
00:11:13.000We have been tracking the ballots that we've been chasing, and Charlie, I mean, I can tell you, we have approximately before this dropped today, and I'll know after I go back to headquarters and find out for Matthew.
00:11:29.000We probably have another 70,000 votes that are in Maricopa County that have yet to be tabulated.
00:12:14.000Which is probably the reason why Stephen Richard deleted his Twitter today.
00:12:17.000Which is that, and for those at home that are also following along in this onesie-twosie saga that we've been in now for many years, we can probably, this is like the greatest saga ever written, is that we're finally overcoming the onesie-twosies because we chase ballots.
00:12:36.000Now, but some people, we chased ballots at different times, but we look at the back end and they haven't registered yet with the voters we know, right?
00:12:42.000So we chased ballots consistently every day.
00:15:51.000It's basically a two-to-one margin of Republicans for those Election Day drop-offs as long as it jives with what actually showed up at the polling place in person.
00:21:25.000I can understand bringing money into the Russell Belt.
00:21:28.000I can understand that, but zero money for Terry is ridiculous.
00:21:32.000The reason this gets me excited is because the donor class will have so much proof of concept after this cycle.
00:21:42.000If Terry Lake wins this race, Charlie, and we can show them that the establishment spent zero dollars helping and the turning point had to single-handedly carry a U.S. Senate seat When they poured millions into Michigan, millions into Maryland, this is a masterclass on going to the donors and saying, listen, what are you doing?
00:24:34.000I made a series of calls to establishment GOP donors the weekend before the election, saying, guys, Kerry Lake's going to come down to 10,000 votes.
00:24:41.000Did I not tell you he was going to come down to 10,000 votes?
00:24:44.000I called Kerry's team and I was like, you know, the modeling shows, our modeling shows is coming to 10,000 votes.
00:24:49.000We had this down, because we know the state, like, I mean, people know their backyard.
00:24:54.000And establishment donors were like, well, let me call my friends.
00:24:56.000They're like, yeah, everyone says that putting money for Ted Cruz is a better investment.
00:25:01.000I know donors that spent $5 million between Ted Cruz and Safe Races.
00:25:12.000If she doesn't, the point being is if we could have just rallied and said, okay, we're going to put another $5 million behind Kerry in the final two weeks of the election, we'd be celebrating right now.
00:25:20.000We had $20 million that she deserved for this race and a key target.
00:25:26.000And here's why it's even worse than what you just described.
00:25:29.000If this was Carrie Lake, candidate that was an anti-establishment, off the map, off the grid, in a deep blue or a deep red state even, that would be one thing.
00:25:40.000But this is Carrie Lake in a key targets that you must win in order to win the presidency.
00:25:45.000It is political malpractice for the Senate Leadership Fund.
00:25:50.000It is political malpractice for anyone that is what I call part of the national Republican apparatus to not give Carrie Lake money and support and fund Carrie Lake Senate run because the state is critical to you for three reasons.
00:26:04.000The president, the senate, and the house.
00:26:08.000And so we would be, our poor people here, we've been working our tails off, you know, all like bickering amongst ourselves trying to get like cure every freaking ballot today here in the state with basically effectively no resources that are provided to so many other states.
00:26:26.000And we're still going to be able to prove that if you buckle down, you register voters, you chase those voters, you chase other voters, you win.
00:26:35.000It might come down to just the voters I registered.
00:26:36.000It might come down to your house, your street.
00:31:15.000The second is then what is her break with independents?
00:31:18.000The reality is, I mean, we're going to know the number at the very end, but she was polling probably in the negative 10 range, 12 range with independents.
00:31:28.000My point is that 10-15% makes up for that entire swath of independence that you're losing.
00:31:34.000So what Tyler's saying is that as these drops continue, the universe, not all drops are the same.
00:31:39.000These drops are typically 52-53% Republican-ish.
00:31:44.000Our chasing is making them now 54, 55 Republican or 56, 56.
00:32:32.000No, you guys, I tell you, you should be excited, as excited as I am, because this was the pivotal drop.
00:32:39.000This drop today was the pivotal drop because if this one would have been bad or bad enough, it would tell a story about what was left in Maricopa County.
00:32:51.000Number two, if it was bad, it could have put Kerry into a predicament that it would have been very hard to dig yourself out of because you've done the math now ten times, Charlie.
00:33:00.000Well, because the math keeps changing.
00:33:01.000Yeah, but if it would have been the other way, let's say the other way, 60-40, It would have put Carrie in a very bad spot.
00:33:10.000She would have had to make up a lot more percentage points of the rurals.
00:33:14.000Every drop that goes by that's good for her out of Pima, Maricopa County, means that she doesn't have to win the rurals by as much.
00:33:21.000And we know the rurals are going to turn out the way that they're going to turn out.
00:33:25.000And I'm just telling you right now, we're on a trajectory, like Charlie just said, I would much rather be Cary Lake than Ruben Gallego right now.
00:33:35.000And I don't know why Stephen Richard deleted his Twitter today, but if I were...
00:34:36.000I'm telling you right now, the way that they operate is that if Carrie Lake had a chance to lose, Stephen Richard would be in it till the last day so that he could zing her and then quit Twitter.
00:34:49.000I mean, he could reactivate it and then sing her.
00:34:53.000All right, Jack, read some of the Super Chats, please.
00:35:26.000And then, statistically, unless Lake can perform better than expected in counties like Maricopa and Pima, Gallego's chances of holding his lead are more likely.
00:35:39.000I say this as a fan of Charlie and Donald Trump.
00:37:04.000Yeah, I mean look, if it's truthfully chronologically, you're telling me that they count them and they move to the next day, move to the next day.
00:37:11.000I mean – Two nights ago, I was a little nervous, right?
00:37:16.000And we saw, at least yesterday, we saw some of the drops.
00:37:19.000It's like, all right, well, when are we going to start making up gains?
00:37:21.000But as I look at the numbers today, you're right, Tyler.
00:37:24.000It's like if this came in today and it was like, well, listen, it was kind of a whitewash.
00:40:15.000Charlie was like, yeah, so Schuylkill, which there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of those local names in Pennsylvania that when you grow up there, you just, you know, you're just used to saying them.
00:40:25.000So we have this, we have Schuylkill County, we have the Schuylkill Expressway, Schuylkill River.
00:40:29.000But if you see it for the first time, it's not spelled like you think.
00:40:33.000And Charlie goes, what county is this Schuylkill?
00:40:45.000We've said the county name multiple times tonight, and he's corrected me many times, but I actually can't remember if it's Maricopa or Maricopa.
00:42:33.000I'll tell you, I told everybody in the office today, I was like, I only have one thing that I'm going to make sure that Justin Heap does, and it's shut down access to every ASU professor.
00:42:41.000So then Garrett Archer tweets out this ticker.
00:44:04.000If we won 57% and it's a 37% independent, 33% Republican, 29% Democrat.
00:44:10.000Yeah, but again, if you believe the conspiracies in your head, my head, meaning my head, that Maricopa County repositions votes to just mess with us, then they could have taken a better one.
00:53:31.000I'll take the Shane Gillis voice over.
00:53:33.000Yeah, but Cliff, the other thing is, though, is keep in mind that it's not just up to Charlie because we have JD Vance sitting right there the entire time.
00:53:42.000Dude, I was texting with JD all day today.
00:54:17.000When this race is called, the absolute amount of out-of-control, conservative boom energy that will come out of AmFest in December will be, like, insurmountably uncontainable.
00:56:19.000The comparison, the Cary Lake Senate shift is what Donald Trump did to the country in 2016.
00:56:26.000If Cary Lake wins, it won't be quite the same, but it will be on par, same song, different verse of that same thing, and people will lose it.
00:56:40.000They will lose their jobs in D.C. Let's play another.
00:56:43.000By the way, if you want to be a member, it's members.charliekirk.com.
00:57:22.000While he's checking that, Ben Thomas, $50.
00:57:24.000I love what you guys did for the election.
00:57:25.000I appreciate the current coverage and sincerely hope and pray for God's grace to be with you and your team as you fulfill your role in ensuring that Trump and his team deliver on their promises.
00:57:52.000I'm actually from Starr County, which is the county you guys were talking about on the show.
00:57:58.000I just wanted to jump on her and tell you that Trump is just such a big hit in the Hispanic community.
00:58:07.000What you guys are doing at Turning Point, you and Tyler and Andrew Colvett, I'm just such a big fan of it and I'm so thankful for you guys.
00:58:19.000Keep up the good work and know that we are supporting you through and through.
00:58:24.000We're laughing because it's Mikey, okay?
01:05:03.000When will you have the conversation on what laws we need to change for the horrible timing on election results, and what can we do to help?
01:05:49.000No, but then someone reminded me who will remain nameless that a senator reminded me that he's in Cyclone 26 and therefore is a different dynamic.
01:07:19.000Clear the way! For JD! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way!
01:08:56.000And this is my question about John Thune.
01:08:59.000Is there a potential that he gets the role And he just realizes that, look, even if he's an establishment hack or even if he's, you know, a little bit better than McConnell, does he get in line for Trump?
01:09:12.000Like, does he get in line for the America First movement?
01:11:16.000But however, if Rick Scott performing really well tomorrow, like getting 15 or 16 votes, also keeps John Thune reminder that he does not have a stranglehold on the caucus, which is really important.
01:12:17.000And so, not to mention, there's a couple really good potential people that could pop up.
01:12:23.000Again, I'm cheering for John Thune to become the most conservative, to become the most effective Senate majority leader we've had because...
01:13:07.000Yeah, I know, but I... I wouldn't think they would put him in there right during his re-election because they're very sensitive about those things.
01:17:00.000By the way, Kansas, there was a poll that said Trump was only up five in Kansas, ended up being 16 points now that they're doing their final sweeps.
01:17:09.000What do you guys think was the reddest state for Trump in the country?
01:19:18.000Yeah, so Joe Rogan, go watch his show with Tim Dillon, and he's asking a lot of questions about Butler, Pennsylvania, J13, which is a story that is absolutely not going away.
01:19:29.000President Trump is coming into office, so the book Bulletproof that you can get right now.
01:19:33.000It's on shelves at all major bookstores, as well as orderbulletproof.com.
01:19:38.000This is going to be the roadmap into the investigation into the first and second assassination attempts on Donald Trump.
01:19:50.000Charlie, we've got a huge strike force that's going up to Mojave County right now, driving up.
01:19:55.000Our staff, our best staff, the best staff that ever was.
01:19:58.000Eric Hayes, Jacob, and Garrett are up there, and they're heading up with a bunch of people to get us across the finish line in Mojave County to cure ballots for Cary Lake.