A new poll is out on the ground in Iowa, and it's not good. What does it say about the race? And what does it mean for the rest of the country? Today's episode is the last thought crime before Judgement Day, and we're here to talk about it. Join us as we break down the latest in the latest numbers from the latest CNN/ORC poll, and discuss the implications for the upcoming election. If the polls are correct, it could have a major impact on the outcome of the election, and what that could mean for both sides of the race. We'll talk about that and much more on today's episode of The Charlie Kirk Show with Andrew, Tyler, Blake, and Tyler! Subscribe today using our podcast s promo code POWER10 for 10% off your first month with discount promo codes POWER10. Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments, a company that specializes in gold, silver, and precious metals. That's where I buy all of my gold. That is Noble Gold Investing Investments is the official gold sponsor of the show, and you get 10% OFF your investment account when you buy a piece of gold or silver! You get 20% off the purchase price plus a free gold membership when you become a member! If you like the show and want to become a Member, you get 15% off for the next month, you'll get 20%, 20% OFF the first month! FREE PRICING when you sign up for a year! Learn more about the show! Subscribe to the show here! Thanks to Charlie Kirk: Charlie Kirk and all future episodes starting on November 3/month, starting on Nov. 1st, 2020! - Charlie Kirk, Charlie Kirk 2020, 2020, and all the rest starts in March 31st! Click here! FREE Mentioned in the show? - Thank you Charlie Kirk & Tyler and Andrew, 2019, 2019. - November 3rd, 2020. Thanks Charlie, Andrew and Blake and Tyler, 2020 Thank you, Andrew & Tyler - 2019, November 4, 2020 - 2020, Thank you so much more! - 2019 - 2020! - 2020 2020, Thanks for listening to The Charlie and 2019, and 2020, my love you'll have a chance to join us in 2020, I'll send you all the best! and more! Love you all!
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00:01:55.000It certainly has had us thinking about what might be unburdened by what has been and considering very well what the heck is going on with this poll.
00:02:08.000Now, by background, I was waiting for this poll for a couple weeks, and I know it's always the Saturday before the election.
00:02:13.000In 2020, she came up with a poll that broke the internet that people said she was wrong and she was right.
00:02:18.000She said that Trump was going to Iowa by 7.
00:02:20.000She detected that Trump was way hotter in Iowa than people thought.
00:02:58.000But however, we have to take this seriously because it is not as much that we're worried we're going to lose Iowa because literally just moments before that, Emerson came out of a poll that showed Trump up 10 in Iowa.
00:03:09.000And even if you take the average, it's Trump up five or up six.
00:03:12.000The issue that is worth discussing here, and I'll throw it over to Blake, is the extrapolation.
00:03:16.000Is, did she detect something, as she has been known to do in polling past, that other pollsters are missing that is going to be a surprise subterranean element of this election?
00:03:26.000Or is this just a major partisan miss from somebody who is a very well-respected pollster?
00:03:52.000And big picture, one of the reasons people are so interested in this poll Is that there's been a discussion online among kind of the expert political class.
00:04:09.000What he's been saying is, if you look at the polls we've been getting in all the swing states and nationally, they tend to be really, really samey.
00:04:19.000That's Trump up one, Tide Race, Kamala up one.
00:04:23.000People are, you very rarely see polls that get away from this.
00:04:26.000And what Silver and others have pointed out is this doesn't make sense, actually.
00:04:30.000Even if the race was perfectly tied in all the swing states, you would just randomly, from random sampling, you would get polls that show occasionally Trump is up 5, Kamala is up 6.
00:04:43.000You get these outlier polls just from random chance.
00:04:48.000And so people have been complaining about this.
00:04:51.000And what they're saying is they're probably leaving out some outlier ones or the pollsters are massaging their data because they're afraid of getting a result that's too different from everyone else's.
00:05:01.000Because if it's way different, yeah, herding, exactly.
00:05:04.000And so, you know, they're sticking to the herd.
00:05:07.000Now, notably, Selzer is known to be a good pollster, and she's known to not do the hurting stuff.
00:05:15.000She is not afraid at all to publish a result that is well outside what other people are predicting.
00:05:20.000As Charlie said, in 2020, I want to recite some of the polls that were on the Real Clear Politics average for 2020 in Iowa.
00:06:36.000On the margins, it's the same size as Nevada, so it can have a similar impact to that, where it could offset if we were to win Nevada.
00:06:44.000The reason people are paying attention to this, though, is what could this signal?
00:06:49.000Well, one of the trends that's seen in her data is the big thing that's driving it, that's making it so that Kamala is getting the shocking result, is it's not...
00:07:34.000But if that result represents accurate polling, it could mean he's going to maybe lose them by a little bit or lose them by five, something like that.
00:07:44.000And if that's the case, what you'd be thinking is, does this translate to other states in the Midwest that are like Iowa?
00:07:52.000Just over the Mississippi River, you have Wisconsin.
00:07:55.000You have Michigan a little further away.
00:07:57.000You have a lot of small towns, kind of like small town Iowa, in those places.
00:08:24.000There is some rubbish in this poll, guys.
00:08:26.000I don't know if this was Democrats or even voters in general, but a very high percentage said that threat to democracy was their number one issue.
00:08:33.000Nowhere in any polling across the country is seeing that.
00:08:37.000Number two, they did not use a great sample size of Iowa's voter registration numbers.
00:08:45.000And number three, which I think is incredibly important to mention and to reiterate, which is when you dive into the data, I don't think there's a world where we win under 35 voters, like Blake said, and we lose boomers.
00:09:01.000And the national polling right now from 10 different polling agencies are saying that it's very close.
00:09:07.000Trump up one, Trump up two, Trump up three.
00:09:08.000In order for you to get a Kamala plus three in Iowa, you would have to have like Kamala plus eight nationally.
00:09:15.000That would have to, those two things don't exist in bubbles.
00:09:19.000Andrew, can you educate the audience as to why we're starting our precious Sunday night on this poll?
00:09:24.000It's a little bit of a humble element because we can't go in too high on our own supply because to her credit, she has called trends before that everybody else thought was nuts and insane.
00:09:37.000That doesn't mean she's going to be right this time, but she has earned the right up to this moment to be taken seriously.
00:09:42.000Yeah, I mean, she's considered the A plus pollster, Charlie, of all of Iowa.
00:09:47.000And to Blake's earlier point, Iowa plays an oversized role in the presidential primaries.
00:09:53.000Therefore, she's gotten a ton of attention in years past.
00:10:59.000Let me just tell you, that's insane when the state is probably something like R8, R10, okay?
00:11:06.000So first there, and that's what the exit polls in 2020 said, R8. She's got senior women, D plus 35, when in just four years ago, the exit polls had it D plus 6 for senior women.
00:11:22.000Again, four years ago, senior men were R plus 32.
00:11:28.000So what you have to believe in this, and it goes on, by the way.
00:11:31.000So you've got the college, no college, men, women, all that stuff.
00:11:36.000What you would have to believe for this poll to be true is that every other poll in the universe, and I mean that in sort of a polling lingo way, but every other poll out nationally and locally is wrong.
00:12:58.000No, so, I mean, to your point though, Charlie, the two things, if we're saying what could Seltzer be seeing in the numbers that we are not seeing, like a hidden element in the polling, there's two elements.
00:13:10.000Seniors, we've pointed that out on our own show, on our daily show, Charlie.
00:13:15.000That there have been a bit of softness with boomers.
00:13:20.000We got a bunch of hate mail from our listeners.
00:13:22.000The second thing is, are we looking for a hidden female vote?
00:13:27.000And, you know, we played this ad on the show last week where women are being encouraged to lie to their husbands because of abortion or whatever.
00:13:35.000But none of that actually makes perfect sense to me.
00:14:33.000Yeah, I think there's two things that we didn't succinctly cover, but everybody needs to hear over and over again.
00:14:41.000Polls, and particularly close polls, are not going to matter if turnout is not predicted correctly as well.
00:14:49.000So right now, I think part of the haywire effect that we're going to be seeing, not only with polling, and with also the predictors, the great predictors that we have so many of on Twitter, on X, That people are not correctly seeing and taking in the amount of early votes that Republicans are turning out, and then they're not appropriately applying those to some of their polling tactics.
00:15:17.000And I'm not saying this about this specific poll, but there is a real issue that exists out there on the polling front with people polling people who have not yet voted when a big chunk of the electorate has voted in certain states.
00:15:33.000There's a huge issue with polling people who have voted that still yet remain to vote on Election Day and the differences that exist between those types of voters.
00:15:44.000And so we're just entering a new era, especially amongst Republicans, where Republicans don't trust anyone.
00:16:06.000And then the second part is that now how these pollsters are going about their work, even people who have been around for a really long time doing this, they're not totally up to snuff with how they're polling people who have already voted, cast votes, and then the people who have yet to vote.
00:16:31.000I was just going to say this is one thing.
00:16:32.000Our job is one job, which is that we just got to turn out more people, make sure our turnout numbers are high, prove pollsters wrong, because what we would like to see is less reliance on polling and more reliance on data analysis as early votes come in.
00:16:50.000And then properly and adequately talking with our own base to make sure we turn out more votes, not only during the early voting period, but on Election Day.
00:17:52.000So Seltzer is saying that, you know, the young people are going his way, but I mean, I can't imagine that these young people are defecting that far from their parents.
00:18:00.000Blake, I know it sounds silly, but I think, Blake, you're somewhat sympathetic that these mock student elections actually can have an element of truth of some cultural temperature, right?
00:18:09.000That usually the Democrats clobber with these, but we're actually winning these student votes across the country.
00:18:14.000And talk to the audience about the main one, Blake.
00:18:17.000Yeah, so the Maine thing, the Maine also has a student vote, and a good number of people vote in it, too.
00:18:52.000And then you had about 2% for the Libertarians, for Jill Stein, and for Cornel West.
00:18:58.000And notably, in 2020, I believe Joe Biden narrowly won by about two points.
00:19:04.000And in 2016, Trump won, but by less than he just won in this mock election.
00:19:11.000Yeah, are these kids even able to vote?
00:19:13.000No, but I feel like it's a very good way to capture a genuine vibe shift if it's happening at the grassroots level.
00:19:23.000I think if we're going to be winning on Tuesday, a big reason we're going to see it is it'll just be...
00:19:28.000Absolutely mind-boggling pro-Trump turnout in rural areas, and I wouldn't be shocked if it was those rural areas that would get more invested in votes like this.
00:19:41.000I also am still thinking about the Iowa poll, because I know people are freaking out about it, and I don't want people to freak out too much about it.
00:19:49.000So one thing to point out about it is the way Selzer does her polling is she just does a likely voter screen.
00:19:56.000So that is, you want to poll people who are actually likely to vote in the race.
00:20:00.000You don't want to poll people who don't bother voting because they don't count.
00:20:47.000If you kind of imagine TV watching elderly liberals, they've all been whipped up about Trump-Hitler stuff.
00:20:54.000The number one issue in the poll is defending democracy among the Harris voters.
00:21:00.000And so it could be maybe all the Hitler stuff basically supercharged a certain subset of liberal voters to definitely respond to polls and stand out a little bit more in the race.
00:21:12.000Another thing, and I want to flag this as something that came to mind for me.
00:21:17.000Iowa has a rather strict abortion law that took effect on August 1st.
00:21:23.000So if you were going to have some sort of Dobbs abortion effect to help the Democrats in this election, they might have by far the biggest one.
00:21:31.000A brand new abortion law that took effect literally after Harris entered the race.
00:21:36.000And so it could be maybe that has a big impact in Iowa.
00:21:41.000And you won't see as big of an impact in states like Arizona or Wisconsin where you don't have a strict ban that is currently in place and fresh on people's minds.
00:23:02.000The second piece is is the female vote issue, which we've been talking about, you know, off and on, which is is that the female vote we know is leaning significantly towards towards Kamala.
00:23:13.000That number, I think, in polling can actually be overrepresented when you take into consideration potentially males not turning out or not answering.
00:23:25.000And so that can happen even in a polling environment where people don't pick up the phone, they don't answer, men don't have time, they're not interested, whatever, they already voted.
00:23:34.000But you can have an over-representation that is seemingly very scary, and it could actually happen on Tuesday if men don't turn out to the tune of one to two extra percentage points.
00:23:49.000If men don't turn out at one to two percentage points, or I should say one to two percentage points less in some of these states, that is a dramatic, dramatic decrease in voter turnout for men that people don't understand.
00:24:02.000And it would definitely and certainly hurt Trump where this is a unique election where he is so strong with men and Kamala is so strong with women.
00:24:11.000It would be Totally unpollable, based off of just the simple sample size of turnout.
00:24:20.000So yeah, I agree on that with this poll.
00:24:23.000I think that that could be the indication.
00:24:26.000Let me just add an element here, and let's continue to extrapolate it.
00:24:30.000What if Ann is very wrong, which I think we are, about the state, but she has detected that there is...
00:24:41.000I was simply analyzing that it's unhealthy for a political movement to try to encourage a wife to lie to their husband about who they vote for.
00:24:49.000I just think that's really gross, honestly, about the deceit between the disharmony of a holy union.
00:24:58.000So I want to play this, though, because this is the Julia Roberts ad where it makes the, obviously, the man look like a Trump supporter and like a stupid buffoon.
00:25:08.000Even it shows him voting for Donald Trump.
00:25:10.000And then the woman, I'm sorry, cut three.
00:25:35.000In order for them, because we're not seeing this in the data yet, we're not seeing this collapse, their path to victory would be the largest...
00:25:44.000Mass conspiracy of spousal lying in political history.
00:26:18.000Vote Common Good is responsible for the contents of this ad.
00:26:21.000Yeah, I mean, what you said on Megyn Kelly, Charlie, just to reiterate what you were saying, you said it.
00:26:27.000You said a verifiable fact, and I think it tweaked a lot of the left-wingers.
00:26:30.000You said this guy, this white man or whatever that looks kind of like a douche in this particular advertisement was probably supporting his family.
00:26:41.000Obviously, it's an actor, but in general, if you extrapolate it out, it's probably supporting his family, providing, giving his family a good life.
00:26:47.000Well, it turns out, Charlie, if you took a macro analysis of the American workforce and American family structure, only 18% of Well, exactly.
00:28:02.000Yeah, no, I mean, but isn't it fitting that if...
00:28:04.000Isn't it fitting, Blake, that in order for Democrats to hold on to power, they need millions of spousal infidelity when it comes to voting?
00:28:15.000Well, I was just going to say, I mean, this has been the Blue Anon theory that's existed since Kamala entered.
00:28:24.000And this is one of the risks that the Democrats are running, is that they inserted Kamala super late into this thing, and they immediately had to come up with really crazy Blue Anon theories that they had to speak into reality.
00:28:38.000And this was the one from the very beginning that there was going to be a repeat of 2020.
00:28:46.000They were going to attack Trump on all the same things they attacked him with that worked so well for them.
00:28:52.000But it was going to be even worse and even better because Kamala is younger and cooler and whatever, right?
00:28:58.000And we can just make her a female Obama.
00:29:00.000And the blue and odd theory is that we can get Republicans to secretly abandon the Republican ticket at levels that we've never seen before.
00:29:10.000This has been their strategy from day one.
00:29:15.000That's why you're seeing in Wisconsin and Arizona and other places these billboards that say, I'm a former Trump voter and now I'm voting for Kamala Harris.
00:29:22.000It's like these people in real life don't actually exist.
00:29:24.000They're on billboards but they don't actually exist.
00:29:27.000So they're forcibly needing that to happen.
00:29:30.000And when you have these specific scenarios where it over-represents itself, and it does happen in the female community, it does happen in the white college-educated female suburban community, More than other places.
00:29:44.000And when you look at crosstabs, and you look at polling, and you see that there's a heavy amount of polling that's happening in the suburbs, and there's a heavy amount of polling that's happening overrepresented with white, college-educated females, you're going to have some of these things pop up.
00:30:18.000I'm just thinking there's been all these like lurid tweets from Amy Siskind and others where they're talking about, yeah, they're canvassing and they're getting these like, you know, they'll be talking to someone at the front door who's a Republican saying he's voting for Trump and then the wife will be in the background and she'll be like mouthing.
00:31:54.000I can't say now, but I'll wait until after the election on this.
00:31:57.000But after the election, I have a really great point that we're going to talk about after the election because I don't want to anger a bunch of our own people.
00:32:11.000And it's accurate, but I completely agree with you.
00:32:13.000I think there's a really uplifting, great element that we have captured at an earlier time period, younger people, people who have become legitimately what we talk about all the time as being based, as being awakened, that are turning back to the family.
00:32:34.000And I've said this for a long time is there's been this transition with millennials in particular that are like the age 28 to 40 right now, that age group, that are taking over baby boomers, retiring businesses.
00:32:48.000And it's forcing them to grow up at a much faster rate over the last five years.
00:32:53.000And I think for the next 10 years, this will continue to happen.
00:32:56.000And it's expediting people becoming more conservative, more Republican, more family-oriented, and more interested in real life and grown-up stuff and not environmentalism and gay pride and things that don't matter.
00:34:41.000But to Charlie's point, I really want Charlie to chime in here because this is right up his alley.
00:34:48.000But you have a whole movement that, yeah, you've got abortion trucks at the DNC. You've got encouraging wives to lie to their spouses.
00:34:57.000And then you've got this ad, which is obviously a couple...
00:35:03.000Fornicating outside of marriage, obviously.
00:35:06.000And then basically saying that the mean old Republican, and by the way, the typecasting for the Republican congressman, it couldn't be more on the nose of this dirty old man that wants to get into your bedroom or whatever.
00:35:23.000It's just like the whole thing, if Ann Seltzer's right, these ads are having an impact.
00:35:28.000Otherwise, you know, there's enough people with a brain on their shoulders and their heads that see through just the blatant, cynical propaganda that's coming out of the Democrat Party right now.
00:37:53.000We're going to find out who's correct in two days.
00:37:56.000And if people were really loudly arguing this way or that way, they're only going to be more embarrassed, whatever the outcome is, if they're incorrect.
00:38:06.000Can I tell you something to hopefully give us?
00:38:13.000Turn out what we're seeing in early voting.
00:38:16.000I'm not going to say it's everything, but what I'm going to say is this.
00:38:20.000If you were going to win, right, and if you were going to be excited about voting, if men were going to be excited about voting, they would turn out...
00:38:32.000It doesn't go necessarily the other way, but for sure if we win, we're going to look back and say from a 2020 perspective of this is part of the reason why we won.
00:38:44.000That's a great indicator on a great pathway.
00:38:46.000We still have a long way to go in the next 48 hours here.
00:38:52.000I would rather be on the side of it's clear that we have exceeded expectations from 2020 or exceeded the bar from 2020 as far as percentages and numbers, and we're seeing that in every state so far.
00:39:03.000To me, that's a better indicator from a Republican standpoint.
00:39:09.000No, I just want to say the low-prop battle is now won before Election Day, and we have won the low-prop battle, meaning that we have gotten more low-props out than Democrats in every swing state, except maybe Michigan.
00:39:25.000Meaning that if you're doing well with low props going up to Election Day, that's a good indicator you're going to do well with low props on Election Day.
00:39:31.000And there's almost no chance in no universe that Democrats will close the low prop universe on Election Day.
00:39:36.000Is that correct, Tyler, that it is a canary in the coal mine of low prop universe?
00:39:40.000Yeah, I mean, I'll just use Arizona, for example, and we're doing really well here and not necessarily as well in all other states as we are here, but we're doing the job, I think, the right way with low props.
00:39:50.000Let's look at the opposite with high props.
00:39:52.000Now at this point is when we start to shift in the data and we see how many high props are left that we can count on to vote.
00:40:03.000Well, early voting has ended in many of the states, many of the swing states, including Arizona, Michigan.
00:40:11.000So you've got these situations now where Democrats know their window has slammed shut, their door has slammed shut.
00:40:17.000We have to do our best to get out the vote with now high props to make sure that they actually do show up.
00:40:25.000Because if that poll is correct in Iowa, which is where we started this whole conversation, it's really that we're losing high props.
00:40:31.000It's really that we're losing the people who we expect to vote, not the people we don't expect to vote that we're doing a good job turning out early.
00:40:39.000So that's the fear and the fear porn that you're going to see over the next 24 to 48 hours.
00:40:46.000Is that people are going to look at this and they're going to go and they're going to get lots of clicks off of it and people are going to spike it on Twitter on X and on Fox News and other places on Newsmax is they're going to say, oh my gosh, you know, the house, the sky is falling.
00:41:01.000Everything's burning down because we're not turning out nearly as many of our high propensity voters as we should because someone's going to come out with an analysis on that.
00:41:09.000You know, with the never-before-seen early vote universe that has never existed prior to this because Republicans have never done it before.
00:41:17.000And all I can say is this is like, stop living in fear and start turning out more of your neighbors.
00:42:09.000I mean, if you want the black-pilled version of why, if we don't win, it will be that we are broken and we are sinners and that people want to stay in the flesh.
00:42:49.000The mail vote and the early vote going, trending our direction.
00:42:53.000I would rather see what we do see, which is a higher share of our low prop voters have already voted, and it seems a slightly lower share of our maximum of our high prop voters have come out, at least in Nevada, where I keep checking that.
00:43:29.000If you're going to find those people, I think they're going to be in our four out of four voters.
00:43:34.000And we have to imagine, we wish those people had voted early because it would help us, but we have to imagine almost all of those people will get their ballots in.
00:43:42.000Yeah, I mean, what's left in Arizona, not to get too nerdy into this, because we're going to spend...
00:43:46.000I don't want to hurt everyone's brain right now, because we're going to spend the entire week talking about this, probably leading into this for everything else.
00:43:54.000But what I just was talking about was we're looking at...
00:43:58.000So let's take Arizona, for example, which is really critical to a Donald Trump win, statistically, right?
00:44:14.000We didn't get a report from Maricopa County in the last two days, but we're on the pathway to being over 200,000 advantaged.
00:44:20.000That means more Republicans, 200,000 more Republicans than Democrats have turned out without analyzing the independents that have voted here in Arizona.
00:45:01.000Those low propensity are not going to vote.
00:45:02.000So now you shift to this high propensity voter.
00:45:04.000You say, oh my gosh, our only hope at this point is Hail Mary.
00:45:08.000we turn out somehow more high propensity voters than the Republicans and Republicans don't turn those people out.
00:45:14.000So that's where you're seeing this messaging of try to dissuade people from turning out who are your normal voters.
00:45:20.000And that is like, again, that is their, their, their dream scenario is that that happens somewhere at a larger clip than we expected.
00:45:29.000That element somehow exists without it being pulled this entire time.
00:45:34.000And are you going to see that with the remaining undecided voters at a higher, at a higher percentage at a higher rate?
00:45:40.000Of course, because those people are undecided and that's, those are sometimes the only people that they're voting.
00:45:45.000Arizona already has probably more close to two thirds, if not over two thirds of the votes already cast.
00:45:51.000And then remember our high propensity voters, we have more of those in Arizona now than the Democrats have left and they're out of time to go chase their people because their people always vote by mail at a, at a much higher rate.
00:46:04.000They don't show up on Election Day at the same level.
00:46:07.000We still have more of those people that exist by a lot who will probably show up on Election Day based off of historical norms.
00:46:16.000And so, yeah, I mean, that's looking really grim.
00:46:19.000If I was Democrats looking at that, I would go, man, statistically, we're in a position where we're already down 8% in the polling or in the turn-ins, so the rate of return here between Republicans and Democrats.
00:46:33.000We're probably going to go down another few percentage points just with Election Day turnout between now and Election Day.
00:46:41.000They would have to have an absolute miracle of that happening under the water here of women flipping that are Republican and people not showing up and seniors not showing up.
00:46:59.000We've got to run to the finish line here.
00:47:00.000So one other element here that I want to mention is as we go into these next couple days, what other things that we might be missing that you guys have read that could make Kamala Harris win?
00:47:38.000It's incredibly unlikely, but if it works, it works.
00:47:41.000I don't want to discount it because remember back in 2016, they all thought we were nuts because we said there were quiet Trump voters out there that were going to show up and we were right.
00:47:53.000Well, so we've highlighted, again, there's the potential Dobbs abortion vote.
00:47:58.000Maybe this just really has permanently radicalized women of all age groups.
00:48:03.000I would say the other two things, we mentioned it with the Iowa poll where they were saying democracy was the number one issue.
00:48:10.000Maybe it just turns out there's this...
00:48:13.000Set of voters who were just deeply alienated by January 6th, and it doesn't need to be a huge chunk of them, but if it's 5% of Trump supporters, even 1 in 20 Trump supporters, and those people would be voting for him, except that one thing just irretrievably broke it, and they're switching their votes, that would be enough to flip the election and flip a lot of states.
00:48:38.000The other thing I think about is we do still have we're still going to have Election Day voting and if you look at the states what Democrats have left is they do have youth vote like on campus those are the people who don't do much early voting is people under 25 and could we see a surprisingly large number of those people turn out to vote who are sympathetic to Harris while at the same time will the people who are sympathetic to Trump drop the ball I could see
00:49:13.000We've seen evidence that Trump is stronger with young black men, that he's stronger with Hispanic men, stronger with young men in general of all groups.
00:51:54.000We should do a poll if we win after Election Day where we do a poll of the entire country and we include in the poll the question, did Charlie Kirk personally tell you...
00:52:06.000And maybe that will be like, actually, approximately 0.3% of the entire national vote was engineered by Charlie Kirk explaining people how to register and cast their ballot.
00:52:15.000Well, we've said this before on here, is that this is what we found.
00:52:19.000This is why the Democrats have changed laws to gamify the entire system is because, again, if this is pre-technology era where nobody knew anything going on, it was just like kind of all up to like who saw the guy standing on, you know, on the soapbox in the park one time, like in the you know, on the soapbox in the park one time, like in the And, you know, you kind of saw it just on like the major network TV and you kind of just like guessed and you actually watched debates and actually soaked it all in.
00:52:50.000Elections don't work that way anymore.
00:52:52.000This is why laws are changing and this is why the Democrats are manipulating it to Charlie's point is they they've changed to same-stage registration and these things because they found years ago what Charlie discovered in talking to people out on the street.
00:53:07.000And what our team has found as we put people out into the to be what we call concierge service for voting with our ballot chasing program is that, again, we say the number one reason people don't vote is because they think that their vote doesn't matter.
00:53:20.000But the number two reason is because people legitimately don't know how to vote.
00:53:42.000And then you start realizing this is who operates America.
00:53:45.000And to your point, Charlie just said, very smart girls in nursing school.
00:53:50.000But a person that can't figure out that part, the civic duty part, is also the person administering drugs to you in a hospital.
00:53:58.000So you start realizing, as a nation, Maybe the stepping stone, the first step is in the Frogger game that we're playing here, is maybe we do need to really invest into civic education and less into Karl Rove ads.
00:54:15.000And that's why we're doing what we do.
00:54:17.000That's why we do what we do, and it's good.
00:54:19.000And to your point, if I could wave a magic wand, I will say this affirmatively, and Ryan I think will agree, and Andrew would.
00:54:28.000If I could wave a magic wand and get everyone who liked my TikTok videos in the last 60 days to vote, I think we would win.
00:54:52.000Well, I mean, it makes me want to do sort of, like...
00:54:56.000A lot of viral videos somehow create viral videos, which are hard to just magically do.
00:55:02.000I mean, we have a really good system, but we educate people where to go to register to vote, right?
00:55:08.000So they actually start learning the civic process.
00:55:10.000I told you, Charlie, after our UNLV campus stop, I was shocked at the lack of basic economic knowledge that young people have, like macroeconomics, nothing.
00:55:22.000They don't understand where inflation comes from.
00:55:24.000They don't understand what happens if you just give away a bunch of money.
00:56:01.000I mean, it's basically like all the kids that show up.
00:56:04.000And half of them apparently don't know how to vote.
00:56:06.000Well, and think about, they don't know how to vote.
00:56:09.000They don't know how to do a lot of things in life, right?
00:56:12.000There's just really basic civics, really basic life-living skills here that, again, you shouldn't be able to...
00:56:21.000I don't think you should be able to be entrusted with someone else's life in any kind of way if you just really don't know the basics of adulthood.
00:56:33.000we aren't teaching this stuff this is like going back to the right like conservatives and education are completely right like this is scary stuff we don't know how to register ourselves to vote and how to vote and we expect to like go up against like the chinese army someday like the like the military like the greatest military force is going to take us out when you know we tariff So, like, it's gonna be...
00:56:56.000I'm picturing that poor nursing student, but now she's, like, been drafted to Kamala's military.
00:57:07.000Charlie, we make a video with Charlie, like, a TikTok video of how to vote in each of, like, the 50 states, where it's, like, you go to this website, and then, like, we show Charlie, like, carrying his ballot to, like, the ballot drop box that they have in Wisconsin or something.
00:57:22.000And then anytime someone asks, Charlie just goes to his list of 50 videos and just sends it to them.
00:57:27.000Well, there's actually a funny thing, Charlie.
00:57:29.000Our team gets really frustrated with me because I always use this analogy of like, you know there's instructions on the back of the Pop-Tarts box?
00:57:37.000And so every time we're doing anything with process-oriented stuff, like our Commit 100 program, everything else, I take whatever they give me, and I'm like, this is too complex.
00:57:54.000And they're like, but everyone knows how to do that.
00:57:57.000I'm like, no, everybody doesn't know how to do that.
00:57:59.000They put instructions on the back of the Pop-Tart box because people don't understand how to take it out of the wrapper and put it in the toaster.
00:58:30.000You have to be the smart guy talking about all sorts of snobby stuff, like socioeconomic theory and everything else.
00:58:39.000And that's your ticket to ride for the conservative movement.
00:58:44.000And meanwhile, we have people that don't know how to vote.
00:58:47.000And we spent hundreds of billions of dollars on that for 15 years throughout the Bush and Obama eras when we basically could have been building up an army of people who learn how to vote and do basic civic stuff.
00:59:06.000However, Blake, even if a small percentage of these low-prop new voters end up voting in an election where we have undetected polling errors in the margins, that could actually end up being incredibly consequential, right?
00:59:29.000I'm telling you right now, there are millions of people who agree with us that are not voting.
00:59:33.000I just want everyone to like that for a sudden.
00:59:36.000There are millions of Americans that agree with us that are just not voting.
00:59:40.000It's very likely that the winner of Tuesday's election will get several million fewer votes than Donald Trump got in 2020 in an election that he lost the popular vote in.
00:59:55.000Because we're likely to have a lower turnout election this time.
00:59:58.000Maybe I'll be wrong, but all the signs are this will be more like 2016, fewer people voting.
01:00:03.000There will be millions of people who could have voted who don't turn out this time.
01:00:07.000And it's much like I described the midterms in 2022 with that turnouts down in the midterms.
01:00:13.000And so if you had Donald Trump, if you got even like 100,000 fewer votes in Arizona in 2022 than Donald Trump got, like Carrie Lake wins in a landslide.
01:00:28.000So it's always in this election, it's going to be who loses fewer voters from where they were in 2020.
01:00:36.000Well, and again, this is the positive, right?
01:00:38.000Is we take this and we think about it and we go, we got to get everybody out.
01:00:42.000Because the depression that the Democrats are experiencing, if we don't have the same equivalent of that, you win, is what you're saying, right?
01:00:50.000If we just match the intensity that we came to the table with in 2020, it is almost impossible for the Democrats to win with the numbers that are out on the table right now in most of these key chart states.
01:01:25.000I spent three hours today before I came into the office contacting voters on my street and talking to people, dropping off notes, just saying, hey, please remember to vote.
01:01:36.000Everybody knows that this is the difference maker, right?
01:01:39.000And that's the simple message that we have to tell everybody and teach everybody to do.
01:03:16.000This might be the most important October surprise of all time.
01:03:22.000Harambe has been watching over us for the past decade now.
01:03:26.000I'm a little sad we don't have Jack for this, but now we have Peanut the Squirrel.
01:03:32.000Ryan, do we have memes about Peanut the Squirrel?
01:03:35.000It would be fun to show the AI images of that while we're talking about it.
01:03:39.000Yeah, this is not what I expected to be a final weekend topic, but the state of New York sent in police officers because some guy had a pet squirrel in his home named Peanut that he made YouTube videos out of or something.
01:03:53.000But some nasty woman reported it because it was not an approved pet.
01:04:00.000So they sent in and they seized his illegal pet squirrel as well as his illegal pet raccoon, and both of them were I think Trump actually made a statement on Truth Social about it and everything.
01:05:08.000And they spend their time raiding this guy's house, taking two animals out of it that were safe, that were Instagram stars, apparently leading a very happy life.
01:06:19.000I mean I don't it's a weird story because it's obviously there's more important things in the world going on.
01:06:23.000But it's so emblematic of something deeper and more fundamentally stupid about the way we do things here.
01:06:29.000Another thing I want to add is I feel like this might be the first political issue of an election that to a substantial extent may primarily or even only exist because we have AI image generators now.
01:06:44.000So what made this have a lot more energy is you can...
01:06:48.000Now you have all these images of, like, Donald Trump hanging out with squirrels or the squirrel with Harambee and all these other things.
01:06:56.000Like, that's definitely made it a lot more viral.
01:06:59.000And what is otherwise, you know, a weird story about the state of New York killing a pet, which does not directly relate to a national election.
01:07:07.000But it's had so much more entertainment value because you're able to make all of these images and...
01:07:13.000I suppose we'll see more of that going forward.
01:07:15.000We also saw it, of course, with the Springfield, Ohio discussions where you had all the Donald Trump rescuing the cats and all of that.
01:07:23.000But that would have been an issue anyway.
01:07:24.000Whereas this, the fact that any one of us can go and be like, yeah, make an image of Donald Trump rescuing a squirrel by helicopter and then they're flying into the White House or something, increases the entertainment value of it massively. increases the entertainment value of it massively.
01:07:42.000So the fact that we're going to be enslaved by AI overlords is a little more tolerable, given this fact.
01:07:48.000I just, there was more content about Peanut than there was pro content about Peanut than about Kamala this week.
01:08:02.000And this is totally different from 2020.
01:08:03.000There was so much content that was out there on regular social media like Instagram with like normie women and things like that that were posting about Joe Biden all the time and it was so obnoxious and it was annoying.
01:08:17.000I don't see anything about Kamala now.
01:08:20.000Like with friends that are Democrats, whatever.
01:10:54.000There was even pro-Bernie, or I would say even pro-Biden stuff four years ago.
01:10:59.000You just don't see this stuff, and so it's...
01:11:02.000It's even faker to me all the things that you hear about, especially in polls, than it was even four years ago or even prior to that.
01:11:11.000It's so hard because you're out in public in real liberal environments And we just don't, we're not seeing it the same way that we saw it years.
01:11:20.000And I think that we're somewhat professionals in that environment, right, Charlie?
01:11:30.000Like, if we are going to get our clock cleaned on Tuesday and lose, this ingredient has to manifest that I have not seen on any 25 campus tours, which is young, libs, rise in record numbers and vote for Kamala.
01:11:45.000In the bluest areas of America, Flagstaff, Arizona, which is as crazy as it gets, Coconino County, Boulder, Colorado, Georgia State University, from Madison, Wisconsin, from UNC Chapel Hill.
01:12:00.000Guys, I went to UNC Chapel Hill with Vivek.
01:12:36.000I remember when I was on the Board of Regents in Arizona, I would go down to U of A, and it was like...
01:12:41.000Absolute, just like, liberal nightmare, hellhole, crazy stuff.
01:12:46.000You know, the DSA, like, basically no longer exists.
01:12:50.000So the Democratic Socialists of America, young Democratic Socialists of America, like, no longer exists.
01:12:55.000We don't even see them anywhere anymore.
01:12:57.000And we legitimately have a major uprising of younger people, which, again, going back to the poll that we talked about earlier, we're seeing some of those things come through in some of these polls, and some of them we're not.
01:13:12.000And we're never talking about the ones that's not manifesting.
01:13:17.000When we're not seeing those things show up in polls because of maybe the traditional ways that they're looking at these things.
01:13:22.000So it just is mind-blowing to me that like Peanut the Squirrel can take over everything.
01:13:27.000Like we're in such a weak environment where Peanut the Squirrel takes over Instagram much, much easier than like Tim Waltz or Kamala Harris.
01:14:04.000I mean, but it does sort of feel like one giant psyop.
01:14:10.000I mean, because to Charlie's point, I mean, I've been doing this with you guys a long time, and there was so much counter-protest energy in the past.
01:15:21.000I'm not saying that all of this stuff is malicious or that they're trying to create an air of plausibility for some, you know, whatever, some malicious aims.
01:15:52.000Where one of our street reporters at Turning Point USA walked the streets of Madison and just started asking random students, what do you think about Charlie Kirk?
01:16:28.000And we are seeing, I mean, Tyler, can you say nationally, the Democrats are not turning out their base voters like they did in 2020?
01:16:35.000Yeah, they're not turning out their base voters, but the one thing that was the difference maker for them in these elections that they won is they turned out their low propensity voters.
01:16:42.000So, you know, again, it's a two-way street here.
01:17:14.000We've talked about the guy that follows everybody's cell phone tracking and everything, where they're from, all the data...
01:17:20.000But they're having to bus people into different places from across state lines in most rally situations and work really, really hard to pack places, I think, to create a bandwagon approach for Kamala Harris, to create a brand very quickly, which, to their credit, they've done, I think, pretty well, given the circumstances for them, that Kamala Harris was not liked at all, statistically, from the polls.
01:18:00.000And that is a benefit to us if we do the work.
01:18:05.000Now, in prior elections, we haven't done the work.
01:18:09.000Charlie and I have talked for dozens of hours about this, publicly and private and everything else, about how we haven't done the work.
01:18:16.000And this is hopefully what our hopeful outcome is going to be, is we work hard enough to be able to prove that if we do the work while the left doesn't do the work, then you win.
01:18:27.000And this will maybe be our first election where that's actually a true scenario that's actually happened.
01:18:32.000Because that wasn't the situation in 2016.
01:18:34.000It wasn't the situation clearly in 2020.
01:18:36.000But this may be our first chance to really get that knocked out.
01:20:46.000That was a term coined by Nixon more than half a century ago.
01:20:50.000And if you read that speech, he's talking about, like, there's a silent majority of Americans, and they're not being hippies, they're not protesting the war, they're not doing all of this, they're not burning down cities and these riots, they're not doing all these things, but they are the majority.
01:21:07.000And kind of the big question is that we will see decided on Tuesday night.
01:21:11.000The question that is latent in the Selzer poll, that's latent in all the debates over what will happen is, have we reached the point where the left is a silent majority?
01:21:22.000Where they're not the people with dissident energy.
01:21:26.000They're not the ones getting public attention.
01:21:29.000yet they are quietly passively the majority because they care about abortion because they care about j6 because they care about whatever these things would be and it's sort of it would represent an interesting transition because it would mean even if they win the election it would be the sign that liberalism is is like tired that it's exhausted that people are not excited about it anymore at best
01:21:54.000it's just sort of a societal default that a lot of people shrug and keep in But that's not a great position to be in.
01:22:03.000If you think of Nixon's actual silent majority, well, even if they were the silent majority, they did not stop the rise of liberalism in the long term.
01:22:14.000They did not change the fact that the left won a bunch of culture war issues in the following decades.
01:22:19.000So, if the left does turn out to be a silent majority on Tuesday, that would stink.
01:22:27.000But it would still be an interesting long-term development where suddenly the left are just this exhausted, tired, quiet ideology that no one is excited about anymore.
01:22:38.000And I think that would be the first step towards it really going into a serious decline.
01:22:45.000Just to be clear though, in order for this silent majority to manifest, it would mean also that the public opinion polling is wrong.
01:22:51.000The silent majority in 2016 was legit.
01:22:55.000Partially because we saw in the public polling that trade and immigration were increasing in people's top issues, right?
01:23:38.000Yeah, I mean, why this was important, Charlie, is it came out right during the Seltzer Poll, which just had everybody, you know, ablaze on Twitter or X. It came out right then, actually right before, which I thought was good, because these pollsters all know what the other pollsters are doing.
01:23:56.000That's why Emerson dropped when it did.
01:23:57.000That's why Atlas dropped when it did, because the rumor mill was going crazy.
01:24:02.000And by the way, something we didn't mention, Charlie, is that J.B. Pritzker actually He actually spilled the beans that he knew the seltzer poll was gonna come out Harris plus three in Iowa a couple hours before.
01:24:13.000Not only that, guys, but hold on, Andrew.
01:24:15.000Remember, I got a screenshot that I thought was fake that was the same headline 12 hours before.
01:24:51.000But all the, everybody knew this thing was coming down the pike.
01:24:53.000I mean, on Thursday and Friday, you and I were chatting, Charlie, and we're like, there's going to be some polls coming out that are going to like blow everybody's mind.
01:25:04.000But then Atlas, which was actually the most accurate pollster in 2020, is basically got Trump up by 3.4 in North Carolina, Trump up by two and a half in Georgia, which I actually think is going to be a little bit bigger than that based on what we're seeing from the rurals in Georgia and which I actually think is going to be a little bit bigger than that based on what we're The depressed urban turnout in Georgia, unless they cheat.
01:25:29.000Arizona, we got them up by 6.5, which, love to see that since we're so active in Arizona.
01:25:52.000Which is interesting because everybody, the prevailing wisdom right now is that our best chance in the Rust Belt is going to be Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
01:26:21.000But in Pennsylvania, it cannot be said enough that that is a state with day of voting habits, right?
01:26:29.000Because they've made early voting sort of like this quasi-early voting where you go into your county office, you request a ballot, then you vote there.
01:26:39.000Charlie, you're saying 3 million need to come out on election day.
01:26:58.000It was a 1.1 million Democrat firewall advantage going into Election Day in 2020.
01:27:06.000Republicans surged to within 80,000 votes.
01:27:09.000So that 1.1 million firewall is now about 400,000.
01:27:14.000So that is a huge, huge sign in that state.
01:27:19.000I mean, you have people like Elon Musk who camped out in Pennsylvania for the last month saying that we're on track to have a huge, huge victory there.
01:27:48.000And the other thing here, and Tyler, maybe you can talk about this more specifically, but the urban vote-by-mail, which has long been their...
01:28:00.000This unbeatable firewall that they've set up in these urban cores is simply not there.
01:28:04.000I'm seeing numbers out of Philly that says that there's just like 200,000 vote-by-mail For Democrats that have just evaporated.
01:28:26.000They're banking on a hidden R voter going dem, these wives, these women for abortion.
01:28:33.000And they're banking on essentially a tidal wave on Election Day and mass indie voting.
01:28:39.000They're basically saying indies have to go more Republican than they did in 2020.
01:28:45.000Tyler, I know you have the numbers, so please speak into it, but that's essentially what they're hinging everything on.
01:28:51.000Well, and that's the craziest part in this poll, the Iowa poll that we've spent so much time talking about with this whole thing, is it shows, as Ryan pointed out, the shift that everybody's seen in every other poll, the independents are going more to the middle, more conservative.
01:29:07.000It's at best, in most cases across the country, about split 50-50, not gradually or...
01:30:20.000And even if they doubled that number, it would be like 7% of Republicans, which were up by a lot.
01:30:29.000and she's losing Democrats to Trump, right?
01:30:33.000So you have to remember, again, in your inner city vote that everybody's been talking about, so she almost has to do that just to keep up with Trump in some of these states.
01:30:42.000And then in addition to that, you look at the independents and you're like, even this Iowa poll shows the most horrific thing for the Democrats, which is that this isn't going to be a minus eight or minus nine situation in Kamala's direction for independents.
01:30:57.000And It's going to be, at best in some of these states, like a minus...
01:31:01.000I'm sorry, for Kamala, it's going to be like a plus 2 for her.
01:31:04.000It's going to be like a plus 3, a plus 4 maybe in the worst case scenario.
01:31:09.000And that's who they're chasing right now.
01:31:11.000The only shot they have is to look at the Biden independents, the Biden Republicans, chase those people.
01:31:19.000Their own low propensity voters, much less those people.
01:31:22.000So, you know, we don't have a lot to fear.
01:31:25.000However, we have to do our own work and make sure we turn out our people in order to win.
01:31:29.000And we're going to go through this data in great detail.
01:31:31.000So I hope everyone's getting excited for this next week on the Charlie Kirk show.
01:31:35.000I have people stopping me every time that we go out, like we're out on campus with Charlie and they're like, I cannot wait for your guys's live streams after the election happens because we're going to go through these in such great detail.
01:31:47.000So we're live right now in Real America's Voice.
01:34:09.000The RNC has spent more money per capita on North Carolina than any other state over the last eight years.
01:34:16.000So under the reign of Ronna, Romney, McDaniel, they spent a significant portion.
01:34:23.000And look, actually that's one of the only places that made the most sense because arguably in the post-Obama years it was horrifying for the RNC to lose North Carolina to Obama.
01:35:20.000And I actually like that about it, but they have constant build.
01:35:24.000And the Republican Party's done a bad job, but it's easy for the Democrats just to move and shift armies over to North Carolina very quickly, if it makes sense.
01:35:34.000And the second part is that you have, in North Carolina, you've got a lot of, again, where the Democrat Party's moving, which is away from blue-collar men, And into college-educated women, you've got a high amount,
01:35:50.000a unique high amount of college-educated women in North Carolina as compared to the rest of the South, which is much more similar to Virginia, why Virginia has gone so deep blue in certain elections in the past number of years.
01:36:05.000And it's different because they have an off-election cycle.
01:36:08.000But North Carolina is much more standardized.
01:36:30.000And our side just has not done that as well, and so they've invested a ton of money into it for the past number of years.
01:36:35.000The party has no reason to lose North Carolina.
01:36:38.000They've invested so much money over the last three election cycles in particular that losing North Carolina would be like the absolute worst thing that could happen to the RNC. Because this is not something that was expected.
01:36:51.000That is not something that should happen in any kind of way.
01:36:53.000And the fact that Trump's having to come in and do the work now is important.
01:37:23.000I think you got to suck up your ego, which I know that probably wasn't easy for him to call the campaign and say, hey, you guys got to do four visits in two days.
01:37:47.000Yeah, I was just going to say that I totally neglected that.
01:37:49.000So North Carolina has a really interesting element that's actually similar to Arizona, where it's a huge amount of unaffiliated or independent, party not defined, party not determined voter base.
01:38:01.000And so that makes it really hard to figure out.
01:38:05.000And a lot of the states like Georgia and Wisconsin that don't have party designation, when you have a huge amount of independence, you have to figure out who those people are.
01:38:15.000So you can figure out who to turn out that's on your side.
01:38:18.000And when you neglect that, you don't do that, that's how you lose.
01:38:22.000To the party's credit, to Watley's credit, to what they've done, they've spent more time there on that practice than anywhere else in the country.
01:38:32.000So again, I'm fully convinced that as long as they're doing their job with turning out those people that they spent all that time and energy on, that we should win.
01:38:41.000But we shouldn't take it for granted, and I'm glad that they're not.
01:38:44.000I actually think that's one of the things that hopefully we'll look back on and say, I'm glad that we just didn't take it for granted because it was closer than we thought.
01:39:30.000Number two is you get the white noise crew, which is the boomers that don't leave their home because every local TV is doing stand-ups there, right?
01:39:38.000Donald Trump was here tonight in, you know, Asheville, North Carolina.
01:39:41.000Donald Trump was here in Concord, North Carolina.
01:39:43.000And that's what's so brilliant about going a little bit outside of the metros is you go like 20 minutes outside of Winston-Salem or 30 minutes outside of Charlotte.
01:39:50.000And then all of a sudden they're like, wow, Donald Trump was in Pinehurst.
01:42:05.000So if the Trump campaign might be doing a misdirection play here, which I think is actually smart, where they've been saying Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania on all the networks, and quietly they know that North Carolina is actually the big bet, and they're cleaning that up.
01:42:17.000They want to make sure there's no leakage.
01:42:18.000They're cleaning it up because 24 is here.
01:42:54.000Yeah, and I don't have that Matt pull up in front of me right now, but looking at that, you have...
01:43:01.000I mean, this is the most interesting part about North Carolina.
01:43:04.000I actually think that the Democrat move into North Carolina is actually a surrender on Wisconsin.
01:43:12.000And here's what they could be seeing right now, and it's a little bit different from this map, which is that a North Carolina win for them is what's the replacement for Wisconsin.
01:43:25.000I don't think they're giving up on Pennsylvania at all.
01:43:29.000No person's going to tell you that they're crazy enough to give up on Pennsylvania because it is a...
01:44:27.000Because there's no reason why you would put those kind of resources into a potential toss-up North Carolina unless you were completely sure about Wisconsin.
01:44:39.000Unless you were unsure about Wisconsin.
01:44:43.000I don't think it's just unsure with them.
01:44:45.000They would be doubling down, tripling down Wisconsin.
01:47:06.000And when they looked into it, it turned out that a lot of those people were coming in from California.
01:47:12.000Multiple, I would say something like Kamala Harris stops.
01:47:19.000So these are recycled, rehashed attendees, and a lot of them are for out of state.
01:47:25.000I genuinely think she has a crowd building problem.
01:47:27.000I really, really actually think that that's true.
01:47:30.000It doesn't mean she's not going to get the votes.
01:47:32.000Because I don't think she's as charismatic of a top-of-the-ticket candidate, but it does mean that I think that she needs to be very careful about where she picks and chooses.
01:47:41.000She does not want to have a bad PR moment with an empty stadium.
01:48:25.000We posted the videos as well, like, We went in with the MAGA hats, myself, my brother is downstairs, staying over at my parents' house right now in Norristown.
01:48:34.000And, you know, we went in and it was like 90-10, you know, 90% people cheering and we posted some great videos.
01:48:40.000But then you get that 10% boo-boo, blah-blah, F-Trump, whatever, that kind of stuff.
01:48:44.000It's an Eagles game, you know how it goes.
01:48:45.000And then this one guy had, like, two other guys who just, like, Didn't like the hat, so they tried to jump us, and let's just say it did not go well for them when myself and my brother got involved, and then a bunch of other guys who saw what was going on got involved, and yeah, it just turned out like that.
01:49:58.000Well, no, because, and here's why, because I was just going to say, with Chase, with Scott Pressler, early vote, turning point action, Trump Force 47, that's all low price.
01:50:08.000I was specifically targeting low prop, and it's tougher to get those low prop guys out because they don't like to vote regularly, they don't like to vote normally, and now all of a sudden you're telling them to vote early, they're like, what's going on?
01:50:19.000So all of those numbers that you see coming in from the Republican side, if they were early mail-in votes, Those are low-prop votes.
01:50:29.000And we did have some for the early in-person voting, but this is a really weird system that Pennsylvania has.
01:50:36.000There's not a lot of trust in the process, especially under Josh Shapiro right now, who Democrats really regret that they did not choose Shapiro right now.
01:50:43.000That's everything I'm hearing from inside their house says, why did we not choose Josh Shapiro?
01:50:47.000Now she's got to do all these rallies in Pennsylvania.
01:50:57.000And so the idea being that Republicans are, and I'll just say this anecdotally, so I've gone to a Steelers game, a Nittany Lions game, Penn State, and now an Eagles game.
01:51:08.000So that's the Pennsylvania Trinity, if you will, the triple crown of Pennsylvania football.
01:51:12.000And every Republican I talked to said, election day, election day, election day, election day.
01:51:17.000It's in addition to all the other rallies and stuff that we've done.
01:51:21.000So our four of fours and our main voters are all coming out on Tuesday.
01:51:25.000Whereas for them, a lot of their high props have already gone in by mail, and then they have some, of course, that are going to come out on Tuesday, but way, way less than our in-person is going to be.
01:51:37.000So, you know, say what you want about the numbers, but there's a strong possibility that we get a lot more.
01:51:43.000Look, if the day of Delta does not beat the early vote Delta, then that might be the game right there in Pennsylvania.
01:52:03.000So California has a lot of crime and they kind of, thanks to initiative Kamala helped pass a decade ago, they kind of made it A lot harder to punish crimes.
01:52:12.000So on the ballot in California, they have an initiated measure that basically is you have to punish crimes now for real.
01:52:20.000And Kamala is, of course, a California resident officially.
01:52:23.000And so she says she cast her ballot in that state.
01:52:27.000And so some reporters asked her, well, okay, how did you vote on Prop 36?
01:53:24.000So, my ballot is on its way to California, and I'm going to trust the system that it will arrive there.
01:53:32.000And I am not going to talk about the vote on that because, honestly, it's the Sunday before the election, and I don't intend to create an endorsement one way or another around it.
01:54:14.000A little white pill moment in the midst of this.
01:54:16.000The work that we have been doing at Turning Point, thankless work for many years, has blossomed into something I don't think anybody, except for maybe those on this call right now, on this show right now, would have anticipated.
01:55:02.000It would be, the most fun you can have with your clothes on is to coach college football.
01:55:09.000So, and it's also, like, all the great elements of politics, which is, like, it's still pressure and competitive and You know, involves leadership.
01:55:17.000But anyway, it's not nearly as important for the society.
01:56:27.000I'm telling you, this guy waited for us.
01:56:28.000Because he came down and yelled at us like, We were just sitting in our seats, and this guy came down and just started screaming, like, why are you wearing those hats?
01:57:57.000Look, they're terrified that they didn't pick Josh Shapiro and Josh Shapiro doesn't want her to win because he wants to run for president in 2018.
01:58:17.000And let me tell you, I got so much hate When I was wearing the Kamala Harris hat compared to when I wore the Eagles hat, that's actually the real difference.
01:58:25.000So we're going to do the play-by-play.
01:58:27.000We're going to put a video together of how Eagles fans reacted to the Kamala Harris hat versus how they reacted to the MAGA hat.