In this episode of the Charlie Kirk Show, host, Charlie Kirk is joined by Josh Hammer to discuss the historic victory for the Democrats in the 2020 primary election by the Hispanic vote and the implications for the future of the Democratic Party and the 2020 mid-term election. Josh is a great man and an astute political analyst. He has been with Turning Point USA since the early 2000's and has been one of the most influential people in the pro-choice movement in America. He is a friend of mine and someone who has been a long-time supporter of the conservative movement. I think we have all seen the death of the Obama coalition and I think it is time to look at how the Democrats are going to go forward in 2020 and what they need to do to make sure they don t repeat the same mistakes they made in 2016 and fail to win the White House in 2020. Charlie and Josh discuss the results of the primary election and what the future looks like for the 2020 election and why the Democrats need to wake up and realize that they are not going to be as strong as they seem to think they are. Click here to listen to the full episode and share it with your friends and family! Tweet me if you liked it! and tell us what you think! Timestamps: 1:00:00 - What did you think of this episode? 2:30 - What's your favorite part of the show? 3:15 - What are you would like to see in 2020? 4: What are your thoughts on the 2020 Democratic Party? 5:20 - How do you think about the future? 6:40 - What will happen next year? 7: What do you see going forward? 8:00 9:00 | What are the biggest threat to the Democrats? 11: How will the Democrats have to do next? 12:30 | What is the best way to win in 2020 13:30 14:20 15:40 16: What s the best thing the Democrats should do next election? 17: What should the Democrats can do in 2020 ? 16 - How will we learn from the 2020 campaign? 18:10 - What do we know about 2020 19:10 21:40 | What will the future look like in 2020 & 21:20 | What can we expect in 2020?? 22:10 | What's the next step?
00:00:31.000His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
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00:01:26.000Josh, I want your analysis of what happened here in the 2024 election.
00:01:31.000What made it different from elections past?
00:01:33.000What did we do right and what did the Democrats do wrong?
00:01:36.000Well, Charlie, first of all, huge kudos to you and to Turning Point and the whole operation over there.
00:01:42.000I mean, I think it's a very legitimate question as to whether or not we could have gotten the Trump vans ticket across the finish line were it not for this massive get-out-the-vote effort, this massive...
00:01:51.000willingness to get involved in the early vote, the mail-in voting.
00:01:54.000I mean, look, you know, we didn't choose to wage elections on this particular terrain.
00:01:58.000In my estimation, I would prefer call it a law, constitutional amendment, whatever you have to do, make it one election day, no early voting.
00:02:05.000If you live overseas, act the military, whatever.
00:02:07.000But in general, not my preferred paradigm.
00:02:10.000The point is in the aftermath of all the chaos from 2020, we had to play by their rules, whether we wanted to or not.
00:02:17.000So huge credit to you guys And basically everyone else out there as well, the RNC, everyone involved.
00:02:23.000I mean, this is a tremendous willingness to not play the ideal hand, but to play the hand that we were dealt.
00:02:29.000And we have all seen the results this week.
00:03:02.000I mean, like the New York Mets LaGuardia Airport.
00:03:04.000Queens shifting 20 to 22 points towards Trump from 2020.
00:03:09.000Donald Trump outright winning Miami-Dade County right here in Florida, where I live, a 70% Hispanic county, the most populous county in Florida.
00:03:15.000I mean, winning the national popular vote, the first time a Republican has done that since George W. Bush 2004 and likely going to end up winning so by an even larger margin than Bush did know for.
00:03:26.00046% of the national Hispanic vote there.
00:03:29.000Basically, every element of this multi-ethnic working class coalition that conservative talkers and pundits and thinkers have talked about for years, it basically all came together.
00:03:40.000I mean, this was the culmination of the political realignment, basically.
00:03:43.000And I think you have seen the death of The long overdue death of the 2008 Barack Obama intersectional coalition.
00:03:50.000We have witnessed this week the death of Obamaism.
00:03:55.000You saw a lot of these seeds back in 2020, possibly even a little bit before then.
00:03:59.000But all the pieces are finally coming together.
00:04:01.000And I think for the Democrats, Charlie, the Democrats really, really, if they're going to be intellectually honest, which they typically aren't, they need to really spend some serious time looking in the mirror and just pausing and engaging in some very sober introspection as to how their policies and their political ideology they need to really spend some serious time looking in the mirror and just pausing and engaging in some very sober introspection as to
00:04:26.000I mean, I saw some polling internally that apparently that transgender ad that the Trump campaign ran where he had Kamala on, it was apparently a 2.7 percentage point shift from one ad.
00:04:49.000And some of the consultants, this is a true story, Blake.
00:04:52.000These super smart, hocus-pocus consultants said...
00:04:56.000I don't know, running on the trans thing, just focus on economy.
00:05:00.000And Susie and the team said, this is bigger.
00:05:02.000They said, number one, we're trying to frame her as she is a radical liberal.
00:05:09.000The trans thing for people in the middle of the Midwest, it's not popular, but it involved illegal immigrants.
00:05:20.000So it's narrative immigration, and that immigrants get special treatment to such the extent, That your taxpayer dollars chop off their private parts.
00:05:34.000I talked to someone who, first of all, they were making fun of Trump's debate performance because they were in a lib circle that made fun of him saying that illegal immigrants in prison, all of that.
00:05:45.000And then I pointed out, you know this is real, right?
00:06:05.000So to do something that demented, import someone illegally into America so you can do novel medical practices on them while they're in prison.
00:06:40.000So they did the ad, and then they, Charlemagne, you know, whatever, the guy from Breakfast Club, and then they doubled up with his reaction, showing that not only is this crazy, but like regular everyday people think it's out of control, it's nuts.
00:06:51.000And Josh, doesn't that go to show that this Trump campaign, there was zero, I want to be clear, there was zero consultant data that showed this was a good idea, except a gut instinct from Trump's inner circle.
00:07:07.000I mean, it's kind of just common sense, though, isn't it?
00:07:10.000I mean, the transgender issue is an issue that polling has been 75-25, maybe 70-30, depending on the poll, the way you want to phrase it.
00:07:19.000I mean, the notion that U.S. taxpayer dollars should go to anyone to basically try to cut off your genitalia, chemical castration for inmates, for minors, for anyone— It is a ludicrous proposition.
00:07:32.000But, you know, people internally at the Kamala Harris campaign, I think this is the key point, people internally, they heard the warning flags.
00:07:39.000Apparently, Bill Clinton told the Kamala Harris campaign, said, you guys have to answer for this.
00:07:43.000And the Kamala Harris people were like, what are you talking about?
00:07:47.000Because they live in an echo chamber of all echo chambers.
00:07:51.000I mean, they're listening to all the blue-checked lefties, Vox, Jezebel, all these stupid left-wing sites and these consultancies, ActBlue.
00:08:00.000I mean, they just talk among themselves, and they literally still think that you are just a racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, transphobe, xenophobe, whatever, for not indulging the fantasy, as Blake just said, of like a double or triple intersectional unicorn fart issue of bringing in a bunch of illegals and then taxpayers subsidizing, chopping off their healthy prices.
00:09:22.000It's not just that that evokes the transgender issues.
00:09:24.000It also evokes, like, if you're a white-collar worker, you've had to sit through people putting their pronouns at the bottom of emails, asking you for that stuff.
00:10:51.000But I think you'll agree this reason trumps them all during November.
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00:11:30.000Donald Trump is gaining steam in Arizona right now.
00:11:51.000And with ours, with the data that we're coming back, I'm so excited to see the final data, Charlie, because I think we're going to be like at 210, 220 of our universe.
00:14:14.000And then you have Pima County, which is going to be really bad for us, but right now the last drops have broken 50-50, which is really good for us.
00:14:46.000Look, if you can break Maricopa County basically in half, 50-50, if you can keep Pima County to 50-50, the rest of the state's going to get you to...
00:14:54.000Well, she'll do better than 50-50 with what's remaining in Maricopa.
00:17:03.000All right, I've been a little bit of a skeptic here for Tyler on the Cary Lake comeback tour, and I just did the numbers, and it's going to be way closer.
00:18:21.000And by the way, I just want to again say what I told Laura's listeners and viewers last night, and that is you did a fantastic job, and everyone knows that you A lot of folks say they're going to get turnout going and they're going to do this and that, but you delivered, and that was a big part of that victory, so congratulations.
00:18:38.000That means a lot, Matt, and a lot of people doubted us, but we worked hard.
00:18:43.000Matt, from a polling standpoint, what are the top-line takeaways, and someone who does this professionally, what surprised you the most this election?
00:18:56.000The Trump campaign said they were going to go after low-propensity voters, in other words, people who are registered, or may not even be registered, but who don't vote but could vote and would vote for Trump.
00:19:07.000And with your help and other groups, they did it.
00:19:10.000And I guess the second thing that was not a surprise to me because our polling showed it, but the African-American males broke, I think, more than the exit polls show.
00:19:23.000And that kept these cities like Atlanta and Philadelphia and so many others from supplying a victory for Harris because she just was underperforming and the turnout was light as well.
00:19:35.000The African-American community just was not excited by her.
00:19:40.000I think that in general, you were kind to talk about my polling.
00:19:45.000I mean, you know, we have great pollsters like my friend Robert Cahillie at Trafalgar.
00:19:51.000Emerson, Fox News does some good work.
00:19:53.000But as you know, the polling snobs like Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight always treat the other pollsters as if they're the gold standard, even though we usually have the lowest error rate.
00:20:13.000And so what would you say for a Democrat trying to learn from this election, what was one of their operating assumptions that they got most wrong, that was their biggest miss, where they tried to build a theory of the case?
00:20:29.000What were one of their assumptions that was incorrect?
00:20:32.000Well, I think it was more strategic than anything else.
00:20:34.000They felt like if you built a campaign based on celebrity and people who are popular to the general public, that you could somehow transfer their popularity and turn it into votes and turnout.
00:21:33.000They wouldn't let anyone ask tough questions.
00:21:36.000And as a result, she came across to the public as being not serious and not capable of leading on issues like Donald Trump.
00:21:43.000And I think those strategic errors are probably part of the reason why she lost it.
00:21:47.000So as the Trump campaign looks backwards and they see the states where they performed the best, for example, Nevada, how can Republicans turn Nevada into a red state?
00:22:01.000What are the lessons we learn from turning Nevada, Donald Trump winning it, which is, I believe, the first time Donald Trump has ever won Nevada.
00:22:59.000And I think part of that was that the Democrats blatantly tried to go the other way when it came to just, in general, their religious beliefs and their family core values.
00:23:10.000And I think that was a big part of this shift.
00:23:13.000The other part had to do with the working person.
00:23:15.000You know, when Trump said, and I thought it was brilliant, we're not going to tax tips.
00:23:26.000That was copyrighted, in essence, when he said it in the minds of the voters.
00:23:30.000I think the combination is that we need to appeal to their core values, stop all this wackiness that's going on that they just see as crazy.
00:23:41.000But we also have to appeal to the working values of people in states like Nevada, And he did it.
00:23:47.000You know, that union there has tremendous strength.
00:23:50.000And in fact, when they vote, the union sort of tracks the guys and gals who work at the facinos, because, you know, that's a lot of the vote.
00:24:00.000So I've been told, in my opinion, I put it that way, that they weren't effective because these people had decided That they knew that Trump was going to look after them and she wasn't.
00:24:10.000So I think appealing to working people and appealing to their values without making overly, you know, it's not about one religion or another.
00:24:19.000It's more about the values of the family and the values of hard work.
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00:26:11.000And the Democrats, you have to wonder if they really saw it coming.
00:26:14.000I want to talk about just really quick, Matt, about a couple minutes remaining, the polling industry.
00:26:18.000How did the polling industry get it so wrong?
00:26:22.000It seems as if they're more ideological than analytical.
00:26:25.000Well, there's another secret, Charlie.
00:26:27.000And I mentioned this on Laura's show last night.
00:26:30.000Firms like Insider Advantage, my firm, Trafalgar, we have a way of interviewing people where it's more anonymous.
00:26:38.000You don't have someone on the other end of the phone who is imposing their dialect or where they're from or their attitude that causes you not to want to tell someone how you're thinking.
00:26:52.000And so the way we do it, and they have a different way at Trafalgar, but it works as well, We gather this information, and we're able to get the shy Trump voter, which is definitely an issue now, to respond to us.
00:27:07.000And I said last night on Laura's show, I play golf, not great, but 45-foot putt being made by a professional, the odds are about 4% he's going to make it.
00:27:16.000And we've got to stay within that 4% margin of error, or we get beaten up.
00:27:20.000So imagine getting up every day and having to make 45-foot putts and be within 4 inches.
00:27:26.000But I think one of the things is these, quote, gold standard pollsters are using old methods, and all they get are primarily Democrats.
00:27:34.000They have to really weight up the Republicans, and the Republicans they get are not necessarily the ones who are voting, and they certainly won't tell them how they're going to vote.
00:28:17.000Working with Newt Gingrich and Mack Mattingly, my former boss in the U.S. Senate, when they got elected in 1980 and that historic landslide for Reagan against Carter.
00:28:26.000I think it was much like that Reagan election.
00:28:28.000You're seeing senators brought into the table who weren't going to win.
00:28:32.000He had a coattail effect for once that was substantial.
00:28:35.000I just think, Charlie, it all came together.
00:28:37.000I mean, with groups like yours, and that was so critical, getting these young people to vote.
00:31:39.000Because they have it even also just by the counties or districts, and if you look at where the vote is in in that one, it's 76% in is the lowest amount, and it's the area around Vancouver, which is the bluest part, whereas if you look at the parts that are red on the map, those are 90-95% in.
00:31:58.000I think it'll be pretty tough to pick up that district.
00:32:03.000I'm just going off what the New York Times website has.
00:32:06.000So again, that goes to 210 with Washington, to 11 with Eli Crane, to...
00:32:14.00012 with Begich, 213 with Schweikert, 214 with Bacon, 215 with Siskimani, 216 with Marinette Miller-Meeks, and then you need two of the Californias to break.
00:32:28.000If you just want to run through the list, I'm looking here, so we're at 209, 210 if you count that Washington one that is already there.
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00:36:19.000Andrew, today's been tough to get guests.
00:36:21.000You know what I've noticed, Andrew, is that in the right-wing ecosystem, the laws of nature have hit humanity today, where all of a sudden everyone's sleeping in and catching up.
00:36:32.000It's like you could do two all-nighters, maybe two and a half, and then all of a sudden you're done.
00:37:03.000Two, our flow, if you look at our inbox, everybody's just loving the flow of the show lately.
00:37:10.000In this election season, this has been a little bit less of a priority put on it, but I will tell you, Charlie, I think you were talking about the House race, and I was telling you that New York Times tracking right now has us up and or winning already declared at 223 House seats,
00:37:32.000which would be definitely enough to govern, I would say, especially with President Trump leading and And 53-54 in the Senate.
00:37:43.000Why would a five-seat majority be easier?
00:37:45.000When you have an incumbent president, these people will not mess around.
00:37:50.000Speaker Johnson didn't have the ability to tell him not what to do.
00:37:54.000An incumbent president who's on a second term, who's insanely popular in the country, won the popular vote, and in your party, he'll pick up the phone and say, listen, you're going to vote for this bill.
00:39:15.000Because the problem was last time, okay, we've got some corporate tax cuts, great.
00:39:19.000I mean, I genuinely think that a lot of border stuff, actually, the time, if you're going to do it, it's going to be early.
00:39:26.000You're going to have Democrats looking at each other and going, we let the border get so bad that we shed, like, 20 points among Hispanics.
00:39:34.000The entire, like, just point and scream racism didn't work.
00:39:37.000So you wonder, like, are they really going to filibuster hard to say, oh, we can't build a wall on the border now, that we can't Deport any illegals.
00:39:46.000I think you might see a lot more tentative openness to that maybe among Fetterman types in the coalition who say, hey, we'll have a lot better shot of winning if we're not seen as putting foreigners above American citizens.
00:40:01.000And so I think a lot of stuff we can do on our own, but you do need congressional action for the most long-term successful stuff.
00:42:01.000You had this big red wave, and yet we saw the areas surrounding Atlanta.
00:42:07.000And I think Blake's point is probably well made, that as Atlanta gets more crowded, you're seeing more spillover into surrounding suburban counties.
00:42:18.000So it's getting bluer and bluer as the Atlanta metro increases in size, which...
00:42:23.000It's just going to make Atlanta, it's going to make Georgia harder and harder to win.
00:42:27.000So, you know, we're talking with Josh McCoon, GOP chair in Georgia.
00:42:32.000We've got some plans on how to counter this.
00:42:35.000There is going to be an issue, though, with Atlanta just continuing to explode in size.
00:42:40.000What can we do to sort of shore up Georgia?
00:42:46.000Because I think Georgia is a state we just can't afford to lose.
00:42:49.000That in North Carolina, we have to do Some important work in the next couple years to make sure that we can win those states, not just in 2026 and 2028, but well into the future, because we have to look at that.
00:43:02.000Now, an interesting standpoint here is, Charlie, we talk about this election being a big transformation of the electorate, and I think there's some interesting clues here from New York, right?
00:43:18.000I mean, New York State had a big red shift.
00:43:21.000So, I mean, if current trends hold, you could see some nutty things looking into the future where some of these states like New Jersey come into play.
00:43:30.000I mean, we only lost New Jersey by four points.
00:43:33.000New Jersey's got some super Hispanic-heavy districts.
00:43:37.000And if those Hispanics keep coming our way, post-Trump.
00:43:41.000So this is the big question for the, you know, as we're sort of crystal ball way, way down.
00:44:44.000The thing about Georgia that's interesting to me is it was so close there and in North Carolina because we speculated, will we get a big shift of black voters towards Trump?
00:45:21.000Americans are tired and frustrated by a stalling economy, inflation, endless wars, and the relentless assault on our values.
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00:46:23.000Okay, everybody, let's play some tape, but I just want to say really quick, let's put 300 up on screen.
00:46:28.000Not that I want to get too ahead of ourselves, but I'm connecting 2024 to 2026, because I'm going to be honest, I'm not going to work as hard in 2026 as I did in 2024.
00:47:47.000It's actually a pretty good map for us, given what we just did.
00:47:50.000Given we flipped Moreno and we flipped Casey, and they're waiting to call that.
00:47:55.000And if we flip Lake, we'll be in a much better spot.
00:47:59.000Well, and see, that's why Cary Lake takes on even more importance.
00:48:05.000Obviously, we already have the majority, but that's one less...
00:48:08.000That we have to gain to retain power in the Senate in 2026.
00:48:14.000But Charlie, I'm telling you, there's going to be some weird math happening in 2026 if these current trends hold, which in 2026 I think it's more predictable that they will.
00:48:58.000So all I'm getting to, he loses New Jersey by four.
00:49:04.000You know, maybe it's a pipe dream, a fool's errand.
00:49:08.000I'm just saying, in 2026, I wonder if you ran a really strong candidate, you might be able to surprise somebody in a state like New Jersey.
00:49:45.000That really is, you know, they say there's three equal branches of government, and there is, of course, technically, but there's so much unrealized executive power, and they're going to cut this up.
00:49:54.000Oh, Charlie wants Trump to be a dictator.
00:49:56.000No, it's like, actually the bureaucracy is there and there's a lot of crap to clean up.
00:50:00.000And we have borders to secure and we have to allow drilling to occur.
00:50:04.000And don't you agree, Blake, that there's unrealized federal power?
00:50:07.000There's a lot of unrealized federal power.
00:50:09.000And like, the truth is, is, you know, what's even more authoritarian than anything Trump could do?
00:50:13.000Letting unelected bureaucrats do whatever they feel is best.
00:50:27.000That's less dictatorial than any prime minister in Canada or in Britain or in Europe.
00:50:33.000It's just total nonsense crap that they're feeding you.
00:50:37.000Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:50:40.000By the way, you know I haven't seen a lot of, and I'm sure it's coming, I haven't seen a lot of the stories of what went wrong in the final days of the Harris campaign, right?
00:55:50.000It is time for the Democrats to say, okay, and you and I have talked about this before, a lot of Hispanic voters have problems with black candidates.
00:57:10.000All these agendas coming from the left are coming after our children.
00:57:14.000If they don't kill our children in the womb of abortion, they kill our children in the classroom with social constructs and ideologies that are counterintuitive to the word and the will of God.
00:57:24.000Even to our American Constitution, to the Bill of Rights.
00:57:27.000So with that being said, hey, Joe, that's racist.
00:57:40.000Keep on with the name-calling all you want.
00:57:42.000The more you name-call, the more the Latino community will emerge as one of the strongest pillars in the conservative movement for generations to come.
00:58:34.000And the Latino evangelical community is the fastest growing religious demographic in America.
00:58:39.000It's not just growing, it's blowing up.
00:58:42.000And as you know, many of the mainstream Protestant denominations, but many of the evangelicals, the Baptist, Assemblies of God, Church of God, Forsker, and all that, their major growth comes from Latinos.
01:00:40.000I do believe that there is an opportunity now for the Republican Party, more importantly the conservative movement, to affirm this engagement for generations to come.
01:00:51.000And it's going to deal around the issue of immigration.
01:00:54.000So there's a way of doing it in a way, and President Trump already did it.
01:01:14.000How can the left, he said, we want immigrants to come here, but they have to come here legally, and they have to love America, et cetera, et cetera.
01:01:23.000There's a way of doing this where it's a win-win.
01:01:26.000We stop all illegal immigration, cut off the cartels, and do it in a way that respects the image of God in every single human being.
01:01:34.000But I'm telling you, we're about to see this Latino emergence in the forefront of a conservative Judeo-Christian value-based movement that will be transformative for America for generations to come.
01:02:04.000And the Democrat Party is not the party of the working class.
01:02:07.000Do you realize that during Trump's first term, I want your audience to do their Google or chat GPT due diligence, please.
01:02:15.000Make sure of this, go fact check this.
01:02:17.000During Trump's first term, Latinos blew up as it pertains to home ownership.
01:02:23.000The unemployment rate was the lowest ever for Latinos, but home ownership, in a matter of fact, we exceeded for a great season there, even, I hate to say these terms, Caucasian white, the home ownership.
01:03:03.000So yeah, the economy was critical, but I believe there were some implicit issues.
01:03:08.000Some silent issues like, you know, biological men and women's sports, like the transgender ideology infiltrating elementary schools, like the idea that a six-year-old who is confused about their gender can actually receive government intervention and take that child away from our homes.
01:03:27.000Latinos are saying, get your hands off our kids.
01:03:29.000So I do believe the future is bright with Latino conservatives and so forth, but I do believe we also have an opportunity to help frame the narrative against this notion from the Democrats where, hey, I think this is actually the best season for the Democratic Party.
01:03:45.000It's the quintessential wake-up call, if they get it.
01:03:48.000Joe Scarborough and Al Sharpton aside, if they wake up and go like, we're blowing it with the largest minority group in America, Let's repent.
01:05:52.000In 2016, Stephen Colbert did that live stream with Mark Halpern on the show where they come in and they thought he was going to have him walk.
01:06:22.000It was a terrible night for women, for children, for the hundreds of thousands of hard-working immigrants who make this country go.
01:06:31.000For healthcare, for our climate, for science, for journalism, for justice, for free speech.
01:06:41.000It was a terrible night for poor people, for the middle class, for seniors who rely on Social Security, for our allies in Ukraine, for NATO, for the truth.
01:06:54.000And democracy, and decency, and it was a terrible night for everyone who voted against him, and guess what?
01:07:01.000It was a bad night for everyone who voted for him, too.
01:07:04.000I like that his voice started to crack when he got to NATO. For NATO! I know, but it's just, I mean, this is, he's supposed to be a comedian, right?
01:07:14.000By the way, democracy, who won the popular vote, exactly?
01:07:17.000It's so symbolic, too, that one of the biggest trends in this campaign is this was like the dude bro election of ordinary dudes saying, wait, the Democrats are awful now.
01:07:49.000And they turned off so many people with all that scolding, with all that, you know, they just became so unpleasant that they can't have the coalition they used to have that won elections.
01:08:00.000We have another funny one we should play here.