The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters #1178

00:00:00.000 Hello and welcome to Podcast of the Lotus Eaters for Tuesday the 3rd of June, episode 1178.

00:00:08.580 So, right, what are we going to be talking about today? I've got Beau and Faraz with me.

00:00:13.240 Faraz is going to be talking about the efforts to keep the Ukraine war going.

00:00:16.560 They seem quite determined to that.

00:00:18.860 You're going to be talking about maybe Taiwan is going to kick off soon?

00:00:23.220 World War III?

00:00:24.220 Yes.

00:00:24.940 It's definitely happening. It's already started.

00:00:27.460 Now, yeah, just talk a little bit about Taiwan.

00:00:30.460 Yes, war. Press the button.

00:00:32.120 Happy now.

00:00:34.500 And I will cover, how to put this delicately, Kirsten's interesting relationship with attractive young Ukrainian men,

00:00:45.260 which might lead to the situation where we need a new prime minister.

00:00:48.580 So we're going to have a quick look at who the contenders are.

00:00:51.040 Sure, it's a very interesting field with amazing numbers of rich pickings, all with experience in business, politics, life.

00:01:00.880 You said on the podcast yesterday, words to the effect of they can't replace Starmer because they've got no one else.

00:01:06.080 And I thought, aha, challenge accepted, sir.

00:01:09.000 It may be my toughest challenge yet, but we'll see where we can come up.

00:01:14.040 Also, we have to acknowledge that we are aware that Dank has called us out on a wrestling challenge.

00:01:22.120 That was something that came up at one of the election streams.

00:01:27.440 We chatted about that, about doing that.

00:01:29.860 I don't know about wrestling. I can box. I don't know how to wrestle.

00:01:32.300 But I am up for some sort of, you know, intra-company violence, charity, whatever.

00:01:39.880 You know, that would be good.

00:01:43.260 I'm not going to say who. It's Carl.

00:01:47.280 Somebody is against us doing this.

00:01:50.740 But there are some of us on the staff, again, not going to mention any names, but it's me who's pushing very hard for this.

00:01:56.940 Harry, Harry loves wrestling, doesn't he?

00:01:58.920 He's Harry a wrestler, isn't he?

00:02:00.180 He loves wrestling, yeah.

00:02:01.180 Oh, right.

00:02:02.060 I wouldn't do it. I'll shatter like glass. I'll be a ref. I'll be the ref. How about that?

00:02:07.160 Right. But is Harry the sort of, you know, the 70s wrestling where they actually wrestle all the ones with the folded chairs and the koryu?

00:02:15.380 I think more that.

00:02:16.560 Right, OK.

00:02:17.660 I don't know.

00:02:18.680 Fair enough.

00:02:19.500 Luca is apparently a top-rated fencer, so one of Europe's best.

00:02:23.460 OK.

00:02:23.640 So maybe we could do boxing, fencing and wrestling or something.

00:02:26.460 I don't know what Dank's staff look like, though. They might be giants among men.

00:02:29.800 We might turn up and they're all six foot six, 250 pound giant Highlanders. And we're like, oh, we didn't realise you were all massive.

00:02:39.080 There'd have to be some kind of weight classification.

00:02:42.100 There'd have to be some kind of weight classification.

00:02:43.520 They're still Scots, so they're going to be a bit, you know...

00:02:46.100 Slightly more violent than normal.

00:02:47.420 Yeah, a bit meth-y, a bit, you know, a bit wiry.

00:02:50.680 They all come messed up.

00:02:53.000 It's always good to have a big man versus a little man, like Kane versus X-Pac or something.

00:02:57.140 That's always a good thing.

00:02:58.340 Oh, actually, Carl's good with a sling, isn't he?

00:03:00.340 Oh.

00:03:00.800 So, yeah.

00:03:01.900 So, yeah, whatever.

00:03:03.560 Right, anyway, on to something serious.

00:03:06.380 Yes, so let's talk a little bit about Ukraine.

00:03:08.880 Big departure from fairy tales, if you watched that segment yesterday.

00:03:13.840 I love that segment.

00:03:14.800 Thank you.

00:03:15.560 But today we're talking about the Russia-Ukraine war and where we are after the one June attack

00:03:20.740 by Ukrainian forces against a bunch of Russian airbases that host Russia's strategic bombing fleet.

00:03:30.420 Now, what does strategic mean?

00:03:32.040 Strategic means capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

00:03:35.000 It doesn't mean that these planes only carry nuclear weapons.

00:03:39.280 They are used for other purposes, launching cruise missiles, things of that nature, regular

00:03:44.760 old-fashioned bombing runs.

00:03:46.580 But the importance of these planes is that they are capable of carrying nuclear weapons

00:03:53.720 and the use of systems that can carry nuclear weapons is governed by the START treaty, or the

00:04:08.080 new START treaty, to be accurate.

00:04:10.280 The objective of this treaty is for Russia and the United States to limit the number of

00:04:17.260 deployed nuclear weapons that they have with a view towards managing escalation and the

00:04:23.580 prospects of escalation.

00:04:25.180 The idea is that both sides have eyes on what each other are doing, and the aim of that is

00:04:32.980 to assure the other side that they aren't planning to launch a surprise nuclear attack on anyone.

00:04:42.720 So that kind of enhanced transparency and enhanced visibility allows the Russians and the Americans

00:04:49.300 to maintain what they refer to as strategic balance.

00:04:52.200 They both know what the other side has deployed, and that then leads to a level of stability

00:04:59.140 because they're assured that they aren't planning sudden strikes on each other.

00:05:04.680 Now, the Russians suspended their participation in the START treaty in 2023, but only up to

00:05:12.400 a point.

00:05:12.860 The treaty involves a series of regular inspections of the weapons that the other side is doing,

00:05:20.440 the other side holds.

00:05:23.040 It involves regular notifications of planned drills, of planned exercises that involve these

00:05:32.020 weapons so that nobody's under the impression that a sudden nuclear attack is being launched.

00:05:37.260 But they kept up the bit that says, we only deploy a certain limited number of nukes.

00:05:45.600 And that is, I think, the most important part, because it stops the two sides from engaging in a

00:05:52.980 nuclear arms race, and a nuclear arms race can lead either side to take conventional action

00:05:58.880 and can trigger war.

00:06:00.260 If you're worried that one side is planning to nuke you soon, then your best course of action

00:06:08.280 might be to actually initiate a war and take conventionally as much as you can to manage

00:06:15.360 that threat.

00:06:15.920 My rough understanding of the Cold War is the most dicey bits was whenever it looked like

00:06:19.680 one side might start to get more of an advantage over the other one.

00:06:23.100 Precisely.

00:06:23.600 Push things, you know, the Cuban missiles.

00:06:24.760 Precisely.

00:06:25.200 Push things on whatever else.

00:06:26.100 Exactly.

00:06:26.800 Exactly.

00:06:27.080 One of the things I thought when I saw this, that the talk of nuclear bombers, I was thinking

00:06:32.780 it's not 1962, you don't put nukes on bombers particularly, that's the whole point of having

00:06:38.260 a missile program, isn't it?

00:06:39.600 So you have a nuclear triad, is how it's described, and that involves the bombers, which are part

00:06:45.560 of it.

00:06:46.040 Still, to this day?

00:06:47.140 Yes, still to this day.

00:06:48.060 Because didn't the US end their strategic bomber thing quite a few years ago?

00:06:52.800 The B-52s are still there, and the B-2s are still there.

00:06:55.600 These are the jets that are most likely to be used for nuclear attacks, and then there's

00:07:02.520 a range of other jets that are also capable of carrying.

00:07:06.680 Oh, I know there's loads of other things.

00:07:07.860 You can have really tiny tactical nukes.

00:07:09.500 There's even a nuclear artillery shell, right?

00:07:12.580 Yes.

00:07:12.940 So I think they even created a nuclear bazooka.

00:07:16.940 I don't...

00:07:18.780 Check it out on Wikipedia.

00:07:20.000 Yeah, the tiniest of tactical nukes.

00:07:23.260 But anyway, if there was going to be a nuclear exchange, Russia would put it on a missile,

00:07:28.000 wouldn't they?

00:07:28.700 So they would put it on a submarine.

00:07:30.300 It's a triad.

00:07:31.180 A bomber, a missile, or a submarine.

00:07:34.720 A missile fired from a submarine still, though.

00:07:36.880 A missile, as well as missiles fired from submarines.

00:07:39.540 And the idea is that the submarines, because they would survive an attack, give you a second

00:07:46.220 strike capability, whereas traditionally, the first strike capability would be either

00:07:51.740 aviation or ground-launched missiles.

00:07:55.820 Because it's on a submarine, it's a little bit smaller, more compact, etc.

00:08:00.000 Everything in this domain comes with certain trade-offs.

00:08:03.680 But the key point is that one of the reasons that nuclear-capable jets are kept out in

00:08:13.640 the open, at least according to General Michael Flynn, former National Security Advisor to

00:08:18.620 the United States, so he would know, is to, as part of the application of the START Treaty.

00:08:25.000 Because if you put all of your bombers underneath hangars...

00:08:29.620 Everybody's keeping their cards on the table.

00:08:31.060 Everybody's keeping their cards on the table, and that gives assurances that you're not planning

00:08:35.500 any nasty surprises.

00:08:37.400 Yes.

00:08:37.880 Okay, that makes sense.

00:08:38.820 So there is therefore an understanding that we do not muck about with this stuff, because

00:08:44.200 that leads to uncontrolled escalation.

00:08:46.500 And so, what do the Ukrainians do?

00:08:50.440 They decide to attack the one thing that can cause uncontrolled escalation.

00:08:56.180 Let's have a look at the videos here.

00:08:57.700 It's a bit, what else should I say, irresponsible?

00:09:14.980 Uh, ever so slightly.

00:09:18.120 Yeah, just slightly, yeah.

00:09:20.380 So, this one is more interesting, because Russian civilians jumped on the lorries and tried to

00:09:32.220 stop more drones from coming out.

00:09:34.740 Right?

00:09:36.160 Very.

00:09:36.660 And, uh, four or five nuclear bases, bases that host the Russian Air Force, at which there

00:09:46.840 are strategic bombers, uh, were attacked.

00:09:50.740 The reports of the extent of the damage vary quite considerably.

00:09:55.180 Uh, the Ukrainians are saying that they destroyed 40 of those, which would be a huge number.

00:09:59.760 So, four zero?

00:10:00.480 Four zero.

00:10:01.360 Strategic bombers?

00:10:02.300 Strategic bombers.

00:10:03.000 These things cost what?

00:10:04.880 Uh...

00:10:05.200 A hundred million each or something?

00:10:06.340 Hundreds of millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions.

00:10:08.300 The Russians do it cheaper, and these, for the most part, are developed in the Soviet era,

00:10:15.580 and they, you know, not everybody is trying to build the fastest possible jet that can deploy

00:10:21.660 nukes, because that upsets the strategic balance if suddenly somebody believes that the time

00:10:29.280 to deliver a nuclear weapon has gone from, I don't know, three or four hours to one hour.

00:10:35.320 Ah, okay.

00:10:36.040 The decision-making then becomes much more complex.

00:10:38.820 So, actually, this could help Russia, because then they can reasonably say, look,

00:10:43.920 we lost 40 bombers, we're going to have to build 40 high-tech ones now.

00:10:47.440 That becomes part of the, part of the dynamic.

00:10:50.160 Right.

00:10:50.520 That becomes a possible part of the dynamic.

00:10:51.640 And they just happen to be a hell of a lot faster and more stealthy than the old ones.

00:10:54.580 Which puts everybody else in danger, because one of the things that you want to maintain

00:11:00.100 is a decent, long enough window for you to be able to check with the adversary whether or not

00:11:09.680 our satellites are malfunctioning, to check with your own military.

00:11:14.360 Is this actually credible, etc.?

00:11:17.120 So, the shorter the time for delivery, the shorter, the more quickly you must react.

00:11:23.840 The more quickly you must react, the more likely you are to do something reckless.

00:11:28.200 Chance of error goes up.

00:11:29.520 Exactly.

00:11:29.780 Because I thought I heard that the Ukrainians wanted to do a drone strike on the nuke early

00:11:35.740 warning system in Russia.

00:11:37.380 They did.

00:11:38.580 Attack one of the radars.

00:11:39.960 The one that wasn't even facing towards Ukraine.

00:11:41.720 They did attack one of the radars.

00:11:42.640 And the Americans were like, God, don't do that.

00:11:44.140 Because if you do that, what are all the things you've talked about?

00:11:46.800 They did it.

00:11:47.300 Oh, they did it.

00:11:47.820 They did attack one of the early warning systems.

00:11:50.740 Right.

00:11:50.920 Which was, again, an act of gross irresponsibility.

00:11:54.320 Because then you're changing the dynamics of the war from being one between Russia and Ukraine

00:12:01.300 to one between Russia and the United States.

00:12:04.160 I think it kind of is.

00:12:04.900 And no one comes out.

00:12:05.980 It is by proxy.

00:12:07.680 Yes.

00:12:08.160 So, everybody uses proxy.

00:12:09.240 But it's very much in Ukraine's interest to make it overt.

00:12:12.100 Exactly.

00:12:12.460 So, within the sort of established rules of the game, everybody uses proxies against everyone else.

00:12:19.280 That's fine.

00:12:19.840 However, we do not mess around with each other's nuclear capabilities, because the consequences

00:12:28.220 of that are rather more dramatic than arming the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, or supporting

00:12:35.340 the Syrian government, or trying to kick out the French from Africa, as the Russians are

00:12:39.240 doing, or whatever else is being done.

00:12:42.540 So, there are layers to this game, and different layers have different rules.

00:12:47.560 So, within the lowest layer is to use proxies.

00:12:53.480 And within that, the further away from the other country's borders, the more permissible

00:12:57.980 it is.

00:12:58.740 So, you will arm the Vietnamese, or you will arm the Koreans, or whoever, because that's

00:13:03.480 far enough, and Moscow, or St. Petersburg, or Washington, or New York are not at risk.

00:13:09.820 So, that's okay.

00:13:11.200 Going right up to Russia's borders, as in supporting Ukraine in a war, that's coming close to a red

00:13:17.180 line within the use of proxies.

00:13:19.600 Using that to muck about with nuclear stuff, that's insane.

00:13:26.520 That's legitimately crazy.

00:13:27.600 Just turn this around.

00:13:28.120 Let's say the Russians were sending tens of billions of funding to the Mexican cartels,

00:13:34.600 and the Mexican cartels were doing drone attacks on U.S. nuclear early warning systems.

00:13:41.540 I mean, that would not go down well at all, would it?

00:13:45.360 No, no, no, no.

00:13:46.020 That would be, everybody would accept that this is extremely reckless, that this is extremely

00:13:50.660 irresponsible, that you're putting the safety of humanity at risk, that you're putting the

00:13:57.180 survival of the species at risk.

00:13:58.600 Everybody would, if it was the other way around, if somebody messed with the British nuclear

00:14:03.360 triad, or with the French, or with the Americans, there would be wide consensus that this is

00:14:09.720 extremely irresponsible, bordering on insane.

00:14:12.860 I mean, you don't really need to with the British ones, because our submarines should keep

00:14:15.400 breaking down anyway.

00:14:16.860 Which is a slightly different story.

00:14:17.900 Yes.

00:14:18.680 But this is what the Ukrainians did.

00:14:20.680 Now, there's another element to this, which is they used civilian trucks to launch these

00:14:27.160 drones from, and civilian warehouses.

00:14:29.360 Apparently, the drivers didn't know.

00:14:31.040 And apparently, the drivers did not know that they were being used in an attack.

00:14:35.660 They, personally, as individuals, you're told to go drive container from A to B. You don't

00:14:41.860 look inside it.

00:14:42.880 That would be breaking the law.

00:14:44.600 You're not meant to look inside it.

00:14:45.880 It's none of your business.

00:14:46.500 You're just carrying civilian goods, whatever the paperwork says you're carrying.

00:14:52.100 However, the Russians also have a pretty sophisticated capability to launch missiles from

00:14:58.460 container ships, as do the Iranians, as do the Chinese, as do the Americans, if they

00:15:04.000 wanted to.

00:15:04.960 So it's possible to launch things from containers.

00:15:08.280 It's just understood that you don't play around with the civilian supply chain in this way,

00:15:13.520 because then the entirety of global trade breaks down.

00:15:19.400 If when I see a Chinese ship, I should read it as a military threat, that's it.

00:15:26.200 We're not trading with China anymore.

00:15:28.120 Yes.

00:15:28.420 There is no distinction between civilian and military.

00:15:30.480 You're not going to let a Chinese cargo ship come steaming into one of your major ports,

00:15:33.120 are you?

00:15:33.180 And vice versa.

00:15:34.020 The Chinese would not allow American or British or French cargo ships anywhere near their

00:15:39.180 ports, because these containers could be carrying weapons.

00:15:44.740 As a strategy, this seems to me, I might be wrong, but it just seems desperate now.

00:15:50.300 It's in the, from the Ukrainian point of view, it's, it's so reckless, it just feels like

00:15:56.020 it's a last ditch Hail Mary desperation move.

00:15:58.860 That's exactly what it is, I would have thought.

00:16:01.020 On one side, it is.

00:16:03.300 On the other side, they're showing the Russians that we can take the fight to you in enormous

00:16:08.160 depth.

00:16:08.720 One of the bases that was attacked was maybe 4,600 kilometers from the border of Ukraine.

00:16:15.940 So this was deep in Russian territory.

00:16:18.020 How many bases did they hit?

00:16:19.940 And were they all simultaneously?

00:16:22.000 Yes, simultaneously.

00:16:23.300 The Russians are saying three, there's a reporting of four or five.

00:16:27.080 So there's a hand in picture.

00:16:28.860 This is a pretty good op.

00:16:30.520 I mean, whether it's wise or not, but it's a good op.

00:16:33.280 Absolutely.

00:16:34.480 Absolutely.

00:16:35.360 It's a very impressive operation.

00:16:37.680 It's also dangerous in terms of the nuclear balance between the United States and Russia.

00:16:42.960 Yes.

00:16:43.300 There is no way the Russians will believe that either the British or the Americans were not

00:16:49.260 involved in planning and executing this.

00:16:51.000 Wasn't there a truth social from Trump that you could read it to think,

00:16:57.060 oh, yeah, maybe, yeah, maybe he knew?

00:17:01.840 Something like that.

00:17:03.080 No, the White House is absolutely denying that they had any idea.

00:17:08.040 The White House is denying that they knew about this because for them to admit to knowing

00:17:13.380 about this, it would be insane.

00:17:17.980 But aren't the Americans providing all of the intel that lets Ukraine do anything?

00:17:24.060 The Americans, the British and the French are all providing intelligence in different ways.

00:17:28.100 Oh, so actually it could have been so that they might have been relying on the French or the

00:17:32.980 British for this one.

00:17:34.140 Conceivably.

00:17:35.360 Right.

00:17:35.860 Conceivably.

00:17:37.020 But from a risk management perspective, the Russians have to believe that the Americans were

00:17:43.300 involved and they have to plan some way of retaliating.

00:17:48.080 And they wouldn't retaliate against the U.S. in an open manner.

00:17:53.020 The most likely people to be targeted are therefore the French and the British.

00:17:56.820 And I would argue the British more so than the French.

00:17:59.840 Because British intelligence is up to its neck in the Ukraine war.

00:18:05.000 And they and the French have taken the most hardline positions there.

00:18:08.680 Yes, that that makes a lot.

00:18:11.920 So we what kind of target?

00:18:14.580 I mean, what?

00:18:15.820 Well, a mine on a British destroyer in or something or you conceivable.

00:18:22.400 I mean, there's there's always been reporting of a relationship between the Russians and the

00:18:27.340 Yemenis, the Houthi in Yemen.

00:18:30.340 And that would be part of the Russian response to the activity in the Black Sea.

00:18:36.100 They would retaliate in the Red Sea.

00:18:38.400 Both sides would have plausible deniability.

00:18:40.660 So that's one possible area.

00:18:42.940 Another possible area is to, you know, send a truck full of drones and say that it was

00:18:51.180 the Palestine Action Front that was attacking a factory producing F-35s.

00:18:56.940 Or use one of these various far left loony groups that are operating in Britain and support

00:19:05.980 them to conduct some kind of sabotage attack against energy, against shipping, against aviation,

00:19:13.500 something sort of to extract a similar price.

00:19:20.580 Yes.

00:19:21.320 So you'd send in an operative to basically take these useful idiots, skill them up.

00:19:28.160 It's not difficult to use them.

00:19:29.680 Then disappear.

00:19:30.660 Exactly.

00:19:31.020 Let them do it.

00:19:31.840 And the intelligence services, they know that this was a retaliation, but it's not provable.

00:19:37.180 Everybody would know that this is happening.

00:19:39.300 Yes.

00:19:40.720 But nobody would admit that this is happening because admitting it imposes on you a responsibility

00:19:45.600 to respond.

00:19:48.080 So you don't admit that you know that it was the Russians.

00:19:53.320 The other part to think about is that the normalization of the use of drones and civilian

00:19:59.800 containers in this way means that anybody else can do it now.

00:20:04.380 I was thinking that you drive a truck into like St. James's Park, just behind Downing

00:20:10.280 Street, Whitehall.

00:20:12.140 I mean, if the IRA could fire a mortar into the number 10 back garden back in the 70s from...

00:20:17.560 Well, you know when the cabinet...

00:20:19.420 Dominic Cummins said, we've got no defense against drones, really.

00:20:22.040 You know when the cabinet meetings are, you know which window they're through.

00:20:25.180 You could fly a drone through that, no problem.

00:20:27.920 So not to encourage this, not to support this, but to say that when you cross these lines,

00:20:33.560 it encourages others to cross these lines.

00:20:37.020 It comes with a price.

00:20:39.180 It comes with a risk.

00:20:40.960 It's not that you do this once and then, okay, you're happy and nothing else is going

00:20:46.260 to happen.

00:20:47.100 It's that when you cross these kinds of lines, there are consequences.

00:20:51.500 The consequences will be hidden from our view.

00:20:54.080 We won't know exactly what's happened.

00:20:56.040 People in the intelligence services will know.

00:20:58.880 They will decide what to say to the public and what not to say to the public.

00:21:03.280 And they will decide how to weaponize the narrative.

00:21:06.620 Because we see Keir Starmer saying, there's going to be this massive defense expansion.

00:21:10.720 We're going on a war footing.

00:21:12.040 We're getting ready to fight.

00:21:13.560 We know that Whitehall is thinking about conscription.

00:21:15.840 We know that they're thinking about how are they going to use reserves?

00:21:20.420 How are they going to use reservists, et cetera?

00:21:23.740 And then you do something like this and you hit a key part of the Russian nuclear triad.

00:21:30.440 And then you say, well, why?

00:21:32.660 I mean, there are a whole bunch of attacks in Britain which have been blamed on the Russians.

00:21:37.680 It was always very difficult to know if they actually were the Russians because Russia gets

00:21:41.300 blamed for almost everything that goes wrong.

00:21:42.700 Probably some of them were.

00:21:44.320 So the poisonings and the assassinations, yes, odds are they were.

00:21:49.280 The guys that were supposedly going to see a cathedral in Salisbury

00:21:52.220 and then ended up poisoning a guy and his daughter with Novachuk.

00:21:56.260 Yeah, that was, you know, Novachuk only comes from a certain number of places.

00:22:01.440 Let's not forget the Polonium 210 in Alexander Litvinenko's system.

00:22:05.280 Let's not forget that.

00:22:06.260 Let's not forget that.

00:22:07.400 Although it didn't happen in Britain, though.

00:22:09.420 I thought it was a teapot in a hotel in London.

00:22:11.960 Was it?

00:22:12.280 I think so.

00:22:13.040 I might be getting the details wrong, but I might be confused.

00:22:15.800 Okay.

00:22:17.120 So you see this kind of dynamic going on.

00:22:21.160 And then you see equally dangerous things with the Estonian military, of all people,

00:22:26.620 who don't have a navy, seizing a Russian ship in the Baltics in April.

00:22:32.040 And then you see a response to that.

00:22:35.680 I think this one was the ship that was seized in April to try to stop Russia from exporting

00:22:42.260 oil to sort of enforce the sanctions militarily on Russia, essentially.

00:22:47.440 And then the next time the Estonians did this, the Russians sent in a jet, an Su-35 into Estonian

00:22:56.020 airspace to make sure that nobody would dare touch their tankers.

00:23:00.040 So you're seeing the Baltic states as well as Ukraine escalating this conflict in a way that risks drawing in the big players.

00:23:09.380 That is the fullness of NATO officially, as opposed to by giving aid to Ukraine.

00:23:15.640 And you see this kind of gambling mindset by two-bit players like Zelensky, like the Estonians, like the Lithuanians, who are risking everybody

00:23:31.200 because they don't like Putin and they have a problem with the Russians, when really, if you're stuck next to a giant like Russia, it's very unwise to provoke it.

00:23:44.960 Because even if the big allies come in and help you, the war will happen on your territory with your people as cannon fodder.

00:23:54.960 Mind you, Zelensky seems to have no problem using all of his people as cannon fodder.

00:23:59.040 Exactly. Exactly.

00:24:00.400 So this risk-taking is very dangerous.

00:24:05.560 And actually, this war has made Zelensky incredibly rich.

00:24:08.720 Yes.

00:24:10.320 It depends which Estonians you're talking about.

00:24:13.160 Some of them might do incredibly well out of a war.

00:24:15.480 Yes, absolutely.

00:24:16.840 But at the end of the day, hitting some Russian jets, so the Russians are, it seems that they're admitting to 6 to 12.

00:24:26.620 Or, sorry, they're admitting to 8 to 12 of their bombers being hit.

00:24:30.700 Still a big number.

00:24:31.580 Which is still a very significant number.

00:24:33.540 Which is still a very significant number.

00:24:34.860 But, A, it doesn't do anything to their industrial capability.

00:24:39.000 They can build more of them.

00:24:41.220 And they will be newer and better and better equipped, etc., etc.

00:24:44.260 And, B, it means that they must commit to the war completely.

00:24:50.400 So we saw yesterday negotiations happening in Istanbul, as ordered by Trump, and as Trump keeps on insisting that they must have negotiations and end the war.

00:24:59.820 Yes, that was the crazy thing.

00:25:01.000 Because it was, so this attack happened like a couple of days before peace talks.

00:25:04.720 One day.

00:25:05.580 One day.

00:25:06.080 One day before the peace talks.

00:25:08.580 And you see this as the Ukrainians saying, well, okay, we're not interested in the negotiations.

00:25:13.860 And if you look at the official positions on the two sides, the Ukrainians are saying they won't recognize any of the captured Russian territories as being now part of Russia.

00:25:26.740 Which is really a red line for the Russians.

00:25:30.060 They've taken this territory.

00:25:31.160 They're not going to give it up.

00:25:31.960 And they're seeing that they will insist on joining the EU and NATO, which is the initial cause of the war as far as the Russians are concerned.

00:25:43.860 And the Ukrainians are not even conceding Sevastopol.

00:25:46.740 And insisting that Crimea will also be theirs.

00:25:50.780 Okay.

00:25:51.600 And all they're offering...

00:25:52.780 That's an ambitious bid.

00:25:53.280 Yeah, yeah.

00:25:54.100 All they're offering is some sanctions relief, conditional that the Russians also pay some compensation for the war.

00:26:02.140 This is Monty Python and the Black Knight at this point.

00:26:04.680 More or less.

00:26:05.500 More or less.

00:26:06.160 More or less.

00:26:07.080 Whereas the Russians are saying that absolutely not.

00:26:10.620 These territories will be ours.

00:26:12.540 The Ukrainians must be disarmed with enormous limits on the Ukrainian military in terms of size and equipment.

00:26:18.880 And the Ukrainians must maintain neutrality in perpetuity.

00:26:23.660 And NATO and the EU must give written guarantees to that effect.

00:26:27.420 So the positions of the two sides are extremely far apart.

00:26:32.300 Well, the positions might be different.

00:26:33.800 But the Russians can probably get what they want by just continuing the war.

00:26:38.700 So there is a realistic...

00:26:39.880 Whereas the Ukrainians are going to get none of this.

00:26:40.740 Exactly.

00:26:41.240 There is a realistic political objective for the Russians to pursue.

00:26:44.780 Which is to keep fighting the war until the Ukrainian military breaks.

00:26:48.880 Or until they reach Kiev.

00:26:52.060 And now they're launching an attack from Sumy.

00:26:54.700 And that gets them much closer to Kiev.

00:26:57.440 And overstretches the Ukrainian forces.

00:27:00.080 For the Ukrainians, there is no realistic objective for them to pursue.

00:27:04.920 Yes.

00:27:05.200 That's the most important point.

00:27:06.660 And they tried invading Russian territory in Kursk.

00:27:09.340 If they'd taken Kursk, that would have made no difference.

00:27:13.960 But they got kicked out.

00:27:15.960 And they got completely defeated.

00:27:17.760 And it cost them a huge amount of territory in the Donbass itself.

00:27:22.220 So...

00:27:22.740 I mean, all credit to them.

00:27:24.380 They've been bloody tenacious.

00:27:25.560 Absolutely.

00:27:25.680 They've had a lot longer than I would have thought.

00:27:27.320 But they are just chewing through men and not gaining anything.

00:27:30.640 And they are doing things that risk the safety of their backers.

00:27:38.540 That's what I think is the most important point.

00:27:40.580 There is a level of recklessness in the pursuit of this war that's really, really dangerous.

00:27:47.820 Shall we read a couple of the comments?

00:27:49.440 Yes, sure.

00:27:50.160 All right.

00:27:50.420 So, oh, PHUK, we should start thinking about what's going to happen after this war.

00:27:57.020 A weak and imploding Russia propped up and controlled by China isn't in anyone's interest.

00:28:01.540 At the start of this conflict, I wrote a piece saying, imagining Russia defeated.

00:28:06.480 And it is much worse for Russia to be fully defeated and to become a complete Chinese Lebensdrauch

00:28:13.740 than for the Russians to win the war.

00:28:20.420 And then from Alex Adamson, this is a comment for you, Bo.

00:28:28.060 Hello, Bo.

00:28:28.800 What's the update on my request to cover Sharp on the site?

00:28:31.720 I've almost finished reading the books since last I asked.

00:28:35.260 Four hours left on Sharp's Devil and that's it.

00:28:37.560 Okay.

00:28:38.040 Whatever that is.

00:28:38.820 Okay.

00:28:39.080 Yeah, I would.

00:28:40.240 I'd love to.

00:28:40.680 First of all, I'd say you can go on my channel, History Bro, where I've done the first four.

00:28:44.760 You've already done most of them.

00:28:45.520 No, I've done the first four novels.

00:28:47.620 There's loads.

00:28:47.980 There's like 20 plus.

00:28:48.800 I would do that.

00:28:50.660 I will do that.

00:28:51.320 Maybe, sure.

00:28:52.340 Maybe with Luca or something.

00:28:56.260 I mean, there's always a bit of a backlog going on.

00:28:59.160 So even if I started on it now, you wouldn't actually see it for weeks and weeks and weeks.

00:29:04.980 But I would love to do that.

00:29:06.180 I will.

00:29:06.540 I want to do that.

00:29:07.720 I will do that.

00:29:08.700 But you won't see it.

00:29:09.940 Do it in costume.

00:29:12.540 Yes.

00:29:13.100 Could do.

00:29:14.240 That would be awesome.

00:29:15.080 I'd get the actual green jackets.

00:29:17.000 The sharp green jackets.

00:29:18.260 So, yeah, hopefully I will do that.

00:29:21.060 But you won't see it anytime soon, so I'm afraid.

00:29:24.380 Okay.

00:29:25.240 And then from the engaged few, I think Ukraine attacked aircraft that were fitted to carry and launch the Kinzel hypersonic.

00:29:31.340 Yes, but they are also nuclear capable.

00:29:34.800 So these weapons, these weapon systems can fire both conventional and unconventional.

00:29:40.060 And then there's a couple of comments about Dank.

00:29:43.740 I can't Dank it.

00:29:45.880 Just distract Dank's boys with sheep.

00:29:48.640 Default victory.

00:29:50.100 No, that's Welsh, not Scots.

00:29:52.140 Maybe Scots is, but I don't know.

00:29:53.200 And from Based Ape, when are we fighting Dank's boys?

00:29:56.760 Watch out for headbutts and eye gouging.

00:29:59.280 Scots fight dirty.

00:30:00.680 Their weakness is food.

00:30:02.400 Throw tactical Mars bars to distract them.

00:30:05.140 I will find what a strategic Mars bar is, and I will use it.

00:30:08.580 A weapons-grade deep-fried Mars bar.

00:30:12.920 Yes.

00:30:16.140 Okay, could I get the mouse?

00:30:19.800 Oh, yes.

00:30:21.600 My thing?

00:30:23.040 Oh, all right.

00:30:26.780 So is this all my stuff?

00:30:29.960 I think so.

00:30:30.640 Definitely not mine.

00:30:31.920 All right.

00:30:33.080 All right, so I thought we could talk a little bit about Taiwan,

00:30:36.240 because at the weekend or a few days ago now,

00:30:38.460 Pete Hegseth made some comments about Taiwan,

00:30:41.260 basically saying, speaking to a bunch of people

00:30:43.400 in the sort of American military establishment,

00:30:47.720 saying, you know, let's not forget about Taiwan.

00:30:51.060 Let's not take out.

00:30:51.800 Remember, the Chinese do still want Taiwan.

00:30:54.300 I think the Chinese line, or I saw a senior Chinese official saying,

00:30:58.120 yeah, we want reunification.

00:30:59.260 That's how they talk about it.

00:31:00.260 The Chinese talk about it as reunification.

00:31:02.220 They don't recognize Taiwan.

00:31:03.800 In fact, actually, most of the world doesn't.

00:31:05.440 They don't formally, legally recognize Taiwan.

00:31:08.740 The official position of the United States and Britain

00:31:10.880 is that Taiwan is part of China.

00:31:12.500 Since the 70s, I think, since Nixon.

00:31:13.820 That's the official position.

00:31:14.860 But we'll still use the Pacific Fleet to defend them if we need it.

00:31:17.680 So it's a funny sort of...

00:31:18.520 I don't get how that works at all.

00:31:20.620 We can see that Taiwan is part of China,

00:31:23.260 but also we might go to war to stop you getting them.

00:31:26.020 Yeah.

00:31:26.160 What?

00:31:26.500 Yeah, it is a bit of an odd situation.

00:31:28.660 Well, it's part of sort of the post-war,

00:31:30.260 I mean, post-World War II sort of US military paradigm.

00:31:34.340 You know, we'll keep massive bases in Germany forever.

00:31:37.800 Who knows?

00:31:38.520 We'll defend South Korea against North Korea forever.

00:31:42.360 We'll defend the right of Taiwan to be independent from the CCP forever.

00:31:47.400 I don't know.

00:31:48.060 Yeah, it's still all part of that, right?

00:31:49.780 It feels like they're walking it back,

00:31:51.660 like the Chips Act and a whole bunch of things.

00:31:53.320 Like, they need Taiwan because of the chips.

00:31:57.040 Well, I'll get...

00:31:58.000 Yeah, oh, okay.

00:31:58.580 Well, no, we can say that now.

00:31:59.340 Why not say that now?

00:32:00.480 So, in...

00:32:02.280 Most people might know that in Taiwan,

00:32:04.920 they build sort of 80%, 90% of all the world's...

00:32:08.180 Semiconductors.

00:32:09.380 Microchips and semiconductors.

00:32:10.720 Yeah.

00:32:11.140 They're the best at it.

00:32:12.500 It's not only have they cornered the market,

00:32:14.060 but they are also technically the best at it, apparently.

00:32:16.660 Yeah.

00:32:17.000 Which I find is a tiny bit weird.

00:32:18.780 It's like something from an Isaac Asimov novel or something.

00:32:21.620 There's this planet...

00:32:23.740 Yes.

00:32:23.960 And there's this one country that's got one company in it

00:32:26.720 that all the world fight over, this one company.

00:32:28.560 But there you go.

00:32:30.300 So, here's the weird part.

00:32:32.980 The machines that make the chips don't come from Taiwan.

00:32:36.740 And the designs of the chips do not come from Taiwan either.

00:32:40.680 But the actual fabrication of the chips

00:32:43.440 is pretty much almost monopolized,

00:32:47.180 80% to 90% by Taiwan,

00:32:49.680 especially for the highest high-end chips.

00:32:52.640 So, the smallest three nanometer and five nanometer chips.

00:32:57.140 So, they make the best ones,

00:32:59.840 but they don't design them,

00:33:01.100 nor do they build the machines for them.

00:33:03.080 And the machines are built by a Dutch company,

00:33:06.800 the lithography machines,

00:33:09.000 whereas the...

00:33:10.340 What do you call it?

00:33:11.160 The designs are largely American.

00:33:14.940 The Koreans are also a player,

00:33:16.640 and now the Chinese are breaking into this market

00:33:19.620 and are sort of developing their fully integrated capability

00:33:25.000 to build everything,

00:33:27.080 from the machines down to the most advanced chips.

00:33:30.240 It does make sense.

00:33:30.880 There's a company, TSMC, it's called.

00:33:32.780 And it just makes me think, when you hear about this,

00:33:34.900 why haven't all the biggest players in the world,

00:33:37.100 the US, China,

00:33:38.760 even places like, advanced places like France and Britain,

00:33:42.560 why don't...

00:33:42.980 Well, especially somewhere like America,

00:33:44.540 you've got endless...

00:33:45.180 Not endless,

00:33:45.660 you've got tons and tons of money

00:33:47.080 and research and development,

00:33:48.700 and why would you rely on one Taiwanese company?

00:33:53.220 Yeah.

00:33:54.020 But there you go,

00:33:54.800 that's where we are at the moment.

00:33:56.020 Massive capex, I'd imagine.

00:33:57.000 In 2025.

00:33:57.540 Yeah, maybe.

00:33:58.580 Well, yeah, it is.

00:33:59.820 It is, but...

00:34:00.360 When Biden tried to get them to move the chips,

00:34:03.320 the chips manufacturing,

00:34:05.620 he filled the bill in question

00:34:07.980 with so much DEI BS

00:34:11.540 that TSMC couldn't actually implement it.

00:34:16.440 And it's, yeah, it's a big hot mess.

00:34:20.560 So that's one element,

00:34:22.180 perhaps a very crucial element,

00:34:23.500 is the TSMC and the microchip thing.

00:34:28.460 But let's see, just see what Higgseth actually said.

00:34:32.100 You got it muted.

00:34:33.860 Credibly preparing to potentially be clear to all

00:34:37.480 that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially

00:34:41.260 use military force to alter the balance of power

00:34:44.380 in the Indo-Pacific.

00:34:46.260 We know, it's public,

00:34:48.680 that Xi has ordered his military

00:34:50.020 to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.

00:34:54.040 The PLA is building the military needed to do it,

00:34:56.840 training for it every day,

00:34:59.740 and rehearsing for the real deal.

00:35:03.580 It goes on in that vein, but you get the idea.

00:35:06.000 Yep.

00:35:06.440 So just to say,

00:35:07.660 it's sort of been in the news a little bit,

00:35:09.320 like everyone from the BBC on down.

00:35:11.400 Imminent, imminent, it's an imminent threat.

00:35:13.960 Imminent, I mean,

00:35:14.800 I've been hearing this my whole life, more or less.

00:35:17.260 But let's, I mean, he said not till 2027,

00:35:20.280 but it could be imminent.

00:35:22.060 I mean, Al Jazeera saying there,

00:35:24.460 China saying, don't play with fire,

00:35:26.680 a bit of saber rattling there.

00:35:29.900 The Telegraph goes,

00:35:31.240 it's all over the news.

00:35:32.640 Of course, the Guardian go with,

00:35:35.560 it's cowardice, Trump's cowardice.

00:35:39.140 But still.

00:35:40.220 So this is something that I always find fascinating.

00:35:43.200 The way in which the left and the far left

00:35:45.900 have become the biggest warmongers.

00:35:47.780 The idea that today saying, look,

00:35:50.960 the Chinese are a great power.

00:35:53.040 They're going to have their sphere of influence.

00:35:54.680 Let's figure out a way to work around this.

00:35:56.800 The Russians are a great power.

00:35:58.620 Let's figure out how to work around

00:36:00.080 their sphere of influence.

00:36:02.340 That has become the right wing position.

00:36:05.660 And even the far right Putin shill position,

00:36:09.740 as people often get called.

00:36:11.800 Whereas the leftist position is

00:36:13.860 the existing liberal order,

00:36:16.100 which only happened through a bizarre series

00:36:18.920 of historic accidents,

00:36:20.700 must be maintained even if we have to risk nuclear war.

00:36:25.740 They're quite pro-nuclear war these days.

00:36:27.160 Crazy, isn't it?

00:36:27.740 These days they're pro-anything

00:36:29.760 that destroys humanity, really.

00:36:32.540 So there's been this shift in the discourse,

00:36:34.940 and it's really incredible.

00:36:38.480 It is.

00:36:39.060 It honestly is, isn't it?

00:36:40.300 Well, I mean, so just a couple of minutes,

00:36:45.160 just talk about the people that might not know.

00:36:46.720 Back in the 20s and 30s,

00:36:49.040 the nationalists and the communists in China

00:36:50.840 were fighting each other.

00:36:51.940 Yes.

00:36:52.460 World War II comes along.

00:36:53.880 They decide eventually

00:36:55.060 they have to make common calls

00:36:56.820 and fight the Japanese.

00:36:58.280 They do boot them out.

00:36:59.220 I mean, the Japanese got nuked in 1945.

00:37:01.200 But then they go straight back to war with each other.

00:37:03.160 And it's in 1949 when Mao wins.

00:37:07.120 Yes.

00:37:07.340 And that's when Chiang Kai-shek,

00:37:09.220 the leader of the nationalists,

00:37:11.160 retreats to Formosa,

00:37:13.780 the island of Taiwan,

00:37:15.220 what we call Taiwan today.

00:37:16.420 And that's sort of,

00:37:17.320 it's been that way ever since.

00:37:18.300 What's the origin of it?

00:37:18.820 I didn't know the origin of it.

00:37:19.980 Yeah.

00:37:20.940 It's the dissident Chinese.

00:37:22.540 What, the more capitalist side is it?

00:37:24.660 Well, yeah, Taiwan today is a democracy,

00:37:27.180 a republic.

00:37:27.960 Well, Chinese pretend they're a republic,

00:37:29.880 but of course they're a one-party system.

00:37:31.180 But in Taiwan,

00:37:32.040 it actually is sort of a republic.

00:37:34.220 It's got a democracy and stuff.

00:37:35.380 And yeah,

00:37:35.760 their open economy is booming,

00:37:39.000 relatively booming.

00:37:39.600 They're not Han Chinese as well, are they?

00:37:42.160 Well, I don't know about the ethnicity side.

00:37:43.560 They are.

00:37:44.080 They are very much Han Chinese as well.

00:37:47.100 I like to think of them as the real Chinese.

00:37:49.300 They're Chinese.

00:37:50.020 They're not Taiwanese.

00:37:50.740 They're Chinese.

00:37:51.500 Yes.

00:37:51.820 The other ones on the mainland,

00:37:52.940 they're commies.

00:37:53.480 They're just the communists.

00:37:53.980 Their official name is Republic of China.

00:37:55.900 Yeah, yeah, right.

00:37:56.700 The name of Taiwan is the Republic of China,

00:37:58.680 whereas China, China is what we call,

00:38:01.460 is what refers to itself

00:38:03.460 as the People's Republic of China.

00:38:05.560 And whenever peoples is inserted,

00:38:07.820 then you know that it's a communist regime

00:38:10.080 in the same way that North Korea

00:38:12.480 is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea,

00:38:15.240 whereas South Korea

00:38:16.720 is just the Republic of Korea.

00:38:18.900 I'm a Taiwan stan.

00:38:20.620 I stan for Taiwan.

00:38:21.960 So, okay.

00:38:23.940 And ever since then,

00:38:25.740 like the Americans back in the 40s, 50s, 60s

00:38:28.440 had a big garrison on Taiwan.

00:38:30.680 They pulled out in the 70s, I believe.

00:38:32.880 But still, they say, you know,

00:38:34.960 it's a cornerstone of American foreign policy

00:38:37.600 that they will protect Taiwan

00:38:38.980 with the Pacific Fleet, if needs be.

00:38:41.560 It's not the official position.

00:38:42.880 It's the implied position.

00:38:43.840 Right.

00:38:44.500 It's the implied position.

00:38:45.520 So Biden got into trouble for saying it.

00:38:47.360 Yes, he did, didn't he?

00:38:48.340 Biden got into trouble for saying it.

00:38:49.860 The big issue is for the Japanese.

00:38:53.540 Well, we'll get into that in a sec, if that's all right.

00:38:55.560 I'll just say, but to build on that point,

00:38:57.780 I mean, to this day,

00:39:00.060 I mean, even at the moment,

00:39:01.160 in the last day or two,

00:39:02.580 they sent, like, the USS Nimitz,

00:39:04.500 one of their big aircraft carriers,

00:39:06.320 through the...

00:39:07.160 I'm not sure if it's actually through

00:39:08.580 the Straits of Taiwan,

00:39:09.520 but they sent it to that area.

00:39:11.620 Right.

00:39:11.820 You know, a very, very clear message

00:39:14.880 that we will use our Navy if needs be.

00:39:17.340 I think the HMS Prince of Wales

00:39:19.040 also is in that part of the world as well.

00:39:22.480 So, I hope it doesn't happen.

00:39:25.300 And I actually, if I actually had to put money on it,

00:39:28.820 I don't think the Chinese will invade,

00:39:32.960 with boots on the ground, Taiwan anytime soon.

00:39:35.080 They might do it at some point.

00:39:36.720 I mean, their line is,

00:39:38.180 we want unification,

00:39:39.360 whether peaceful or non-peaceful.

00:39:40.960 That's sort of their line.

00:39:41.700 But they're quite cautious in terms of

00:39:44.160 having foreign adventures,

00:39:46.040 aren't they, the CCP,

00:39:47.500 in recent decades.

00:39:49.020 So, we'll see what happens.

00:39:50.560 I feel...

00:39:50.940 But let's just talk about

00:39:52.220 what if it did happen

00:39:53.400 and the global repercussions of it all.

00:39:56.080 Because it wouldn't just be

00:39:57.460 Chinese troops versus Taiwanese troops.

00:40:01.280 It would very, very quickly spiral,

00:40:04.820 wouldn't it?

00:40:05.160 I mean, there's just,

00:40:05.980 there's sort of no doubt about that.

00:40:07.360 So, just on the grand,

00:40:09.380 the grandest level,

00:40:13.220 first and foremost,

00:40:14.160 talk about the South China Sea.

00:40:16.260 And so, most people

00:40:17.260 have paid any attention to the news

00:40:19.160 over the last few years.

00:40:19.840 We know that China is

00:40:21.060 fairly aggressive or bellicose

00:40:24.060 with extending its sphere of dominance

00:40:28.140 in the South China Sea.

00:40:29.440 So, there's the Spratly Islands

00:40:32.080 and the Paracel Islands.

00:40:35.560 Look, see, I'm on a map.

00:40:36.660 Look, there's the Paracel.

00:40:37.680 That's Taiwan right there.

00:40:39.200 Who controls the Paracel Islands?

00:40:42.420 Increasingly, China has built up

00:40:43.800 a bunch of military bases there.

00:40:45.360 Oh, yeah.

00:40:45.800 But there are competing claims

00:40:47.700 between the different countries.

00:40:49.900 They're coral islands.

00:40:51.180 They're coral reefs.

00:40:52.460 It's not like big islands.

00:40:55.040 You'd have to make artificial islands

00:40:56.720 to make them viable.

00:40:57.720 Spratly Islands, again.

00:40:58.860 Which they're making.

00:40:59.440 Not a million miles away.

00:41:00.340 Because what you want

00:41:00.980 is just enough

00:41:01.900 to put an airstrip on it.

00:41:03.920 Yeah.

00:41:04.880 Then it's important at that point.

00:41:07.580 So, go on.

00:41:08.520 And if you shut down

00:41:09.440 the South China Sea,

00:41:11.080 I mean, that has much

00:41:11.980 bigger implications

00:41:12.860 because not only are you

00:41:14.260 losing the semiconductors,

00:41:15.440 you're losing the electrical supplies

00:41:16.800 coming out of South Korea,

00:41:17.900 which is vast.

00:41:19.100 But also the implications

00:41:20.240 for China is serious

00:41:21.400 because they've got

00:41:22.000 a hell of a lot of manufacturing

00:41:24.120 in the South China.

00:41:25.720 And if the South China Sea

00:41:26.680 gets shut down

00:41:27.420 and all those exports

00:41:28.180 get shut down,

00:41:28.740 you've got millions

00:41:29.780 of Chinese

00:41:30.620 flooding back into the cities

00:41:32.120 that the Chinese

00:41:32.740 are then going to have to deal with.

00:41:34.020 So, shutting down

00:41:35.060 the South China Sea

00:41:35.840 is no small thing.

00:41:37.720 So, there's a couple

00:41:38.240 of things here.

00:41:39.120 From China's perspective,

00:41:40.480 what they're doing

00:41:41.280 is defending

00:41:42.000 the main maritime route

00:41:43.480 that they depend on

00:41:44.740 for the supply

00:41:45.860 of food and fuel.

00:41:47.260 Right.

00:41:47.560 They get their oil

00:41:48.200 from the Middle East.

00:41:49.200 They get food

00:41:50.540 from pretty much

00:41:51.160 all over the world.

00:41:52.560 One of the key routes

00:41:53.640 is the South China Sea.

00:41:55.400 I think it was either Vietnam

00:41:56.860 or the Philippines

00:41:57.600 that started the game

00:41:58.740 of claiming islands.

00:41:59.760 And I think they began it

00:42:01.800 in the late 70s.

00:42:03.640 The Chinese took a while

00:42:05.220 to get there.

00:42:06.220 But when they did get there,

00:42:07.920 they did it with such gusto

00:42:09.760 and with such competence

00:42:11.820 that it quickly became

00:42:14.000 a huge issue.

00:42:15.600 Right.

00:42:16.200 Because they did it

00:42:17.160 at a scale...

00:42:17.880 Everybody else was claiming

00:42:18.780 maybe one,

00:42:19.420 maybe two islands.

00:42:20.080 And then the Chinese

00:42:20.720 just sort of built

00:42:21.380 10, 15 airstrips.

00:42:23.220 And that's it.

00:42:24.740 One of them is Woody Island.

00:42:26.960 Right.

00:42:27.320 Where they built it,

00:42:27.920 I think,

00:42:28.460 completely from scratch.

00:42:30.280 Yes.

00:42:30.740 It was like a sandbank,

00:42:32.220 essentially.

00:42:32.880 And they built this on it

00:42:34.380 with an airstrip.

00:42:37.260 And so on one level,

00:42:39.720 you can sort of see,

00:42:40.460 well, it's their backyard

00:42:41.760 in a way.

00:42:43.680 Right.

00:42:43.820 America wouldn't have

00:42:44.980 anyone else being involved

00:42:46.880 in certain parts

00:42:48.340 of the Atlantic seaboard,

00:42:49.420 for example.

00:42:50.160 Yeah.

00:42:50.300 So it's sort of,

00:42:51.200 it's China Sea

00:42:52.400 in various ways.

00:42:53.220 But from the point of view

00:42:54.480 of the Pentagon,

00:42:55.860 the State Department,

00:42:56.640 the Chiefs of Staff,

00:42:57.380 the President of the United States,

00:42:58.620 all American foreign policy,

00:43:00.500 they're not happy with it.

00:43:01.740 Yeah.

00:43:02.180 Right.

00:43:02.660 They're not happy with it.

00:43:03.640 They see it as

00:43:04.660 just straight up aggression.

00:43:07.040 Yep.

00:43:07.860 And so that's why

00:43:08.880 they will send,

00:43:11.080 because there's

00:43:11.520 international waters.

00:43:12.840 Yeah.

00:43:13.060 A lot of it still.

00:43:13.820 The South China Sea

00:43:14.620 is a gigantic bit

00:43:15.580 of the Pacific.

00:43:16.340 I mean,

00:43:16.500 so you can sort of

00:43:17.980 sail aircraft carriers

00:43:19.900 around and say,

00:43:21.100 no,

00:43:21.360 you can't get annoyed

00:43:22.480 at us,

00:43:22.860 China.

00:43:23.120 We're allowed to sail here.

00:43:24.540 Yep.

00:43:24.760 But China hates it.

00:43:26.120 Yes.

00:43:26.420 They hate it

00:43:27.060 when the West,

00:43:27.620 like Germany sent

00:43:28.400 some battleships

00:43:29.960 through there recently,

00:43:31.040 very recently,

00:43:31.520 in the last few days,

00:43:32.180 sort of thing.

00:43:33.140 Or the Nimitz

00:43:34.100 is sailing around

00:43:35.520 the South China Sea.

00:43:37.540 They don't like it.

00:43:38.300 So tension

00:43:38.980 is certainly rising

00:43:40.200 or has been

00:43:41.640 slightly pitched up

00:43:42.640 a little bit

00:43:43.260 since recently.

00:43:43.880 But what Hegs said there,

00:43:46.060 I think is really interesting,

00:43:47.700 is that the Chinese military

00:43:49.340 in lots and lots

00:43:50.120 of different ways

00:43:50.700 has been designed

00:43:52.280 as if it's going

00:43:55.460 to attack Taiwan.

00:43:57.160 Yes.

00:43:57.720 In lots and lots

00:43:58.380 of different ways

00:43:59.080 and training for it.

00:44:00.220 Because as I understand it,

00:44:01.460 I've never been to Taiwan,

00:44:02.360 but as I understand it,

00:44:03.540 it would be quite

00:44:04.140 a difficult place

00:44:05.000 to say,

00:44:05.260 it's quite mountainous.

00:44:06.640 It's not easy terrain.

00:44:09.700 It's not like

00:44:10.640 southern France

00:44:11.700 or Belgium

00:44:12.200 or something.

00:44:12.720 It would be

00:44:13.200 quite a tough call.

00:44:14.660 and the coastlines

00:44:16.200 are not particularly easy.

00:44:19.880 Oh, there's HMS

00:44:20.660 Prince of Wales there.

00:44:23.120 Our one.

00:44:23.520 We're still going around

00:44:24.620 pretending

00:44:25.040 in the shadow

00:44:27.560 of a much,

00:44:28.080 much bigger bully.

00:44:29.120 Yes.

00:44:29.520 Poking our head around

00:44:30.420 from behind him.

00:44:31.020 Yeah.

00:44:31.920 Yeah.

00:44:32.380 Do as you're told.

00:44:33.200 What is that even supposed to be?

00:44:34.140 It looks like it's

00:44:35.000 an aircraft carrier.

00:44:36.340 Well, that's an aircraft carrier.

00:44:37.100 Yeah, that's our

00:44:37.580 preeminent aircraft carrier.

00:44:40.360 Well,

00:44:41.260 it's more that

00:44:42.580 the American ones

00:44:43.380 are gigantic.

00:44:44.680 Like, the Nimitz

00:44:45.300 is ridiculously big.

00:44:47.860 But, yeah,

00:44:48.300 in comparison,

00:44:49.060 it's a lot smaller,

00:44:49.800 isn't it?

00:44:50.140 Yeah.

00:44:50.660 A lot smaller.

00:44:51.920 No doubt about that.

00:44:52.820 And the sort of aircraft

00:44:53.600 carrier experience

00:44:54.000 the diligence to have.

00:44:54.860 And it doesn't work.

00:44:55.840 It doesn't work.

00:44:56.980 They tried to send

00:44:58.460 one of the two

00:44:59.420 to help police

00:45:01.160 the Red Sea.

00:45:02.340 Right.

00:45:02.640 And they couldn't do it.

00:45:04.680 Yeah.

00:45:05.160 And so,

00:45:05.760 it doesn't always work,

00:45:07.060 shall we put it this way.

00:45:07.940 It doesn't always work.

00:45:09.360 Right.

00:45:09.980 Which is slightly embarrassing.

00:45:12.300 Let's play this,

00:45:13.100 but just without any audio.

00:45:14.720 Just like,

00:45:15.260 so there's some Chinese bombers

00:45:16.900 and an AWACS plane,

00:45:17.920 right?

00:45:18.320 Yeah.

00:45:18.440 That's an AWACS plane

00:45:19.100 up the top there.

00:45:21.220 And just like,

00:45:22.060 that's Woody Island,

00:45:23.060 I believe.

00:45:23.840 So, again,

00:45:24.560 the Chinese are sort of

00:45:25.260 showing,

00:45:26.180 a little bit showing their hand.

00:45:27.180 They know we'll have

00:45:27.820 satellite,

00:45:28.160 the Americans,

00:45:28.960 we'll have satellite imagery.

00:45:31.400 Yeah.

00:45:32.080 We'll put some big bombers

00:45:33.160 out there.

00:45:33.780 So,

00:45:34.540 you know,

00:45:35.320 it's the game

00:45:36.520 that's being played.

00:45:37.500 Quick question,

00:45:38.080 if I may,

00:45:38.360 to you for us.

00:45:39.060 In the first segment,

00:45:39.980 we're talking about

00:45:40.680 how there's this balance

00:45:42.920 between the Russians

00:45:43.960 and the U.S.

00:45:44.980 on the amount of

00:45:45.780 strategic capability

00:45:46.720 they have.

00:45:47.500 Yeah.

00:45:47.740 Are China part

00:45:48.560 of any of those?

00:45:49.600 Not yet.

00:45:50.220 There has been talks

00:45:51.100 about signing a treaty

00:45:52.260 with China

00:45:53.040 so that they also,

00:45:55.480 the U.S.,

00:45:56.340 China,

00:45:56.680 and Russia

00:45:56.960 all manage

00:45:57.900 their nuclear capabilities

00:45:58.940 together

00:45:59.420 with a view

00:46:00.740 towards having visibility.

00:46:01.780 But until that happens,

00:46:03.260 China's just

00:46:03.880 can do what they want,

00:46:05.380 really.

00:46:05.760 And they have a disadvantage

00:46:07.240 in terms of number

00:46:08.120 of nuclear weapons,

00:46:09.160 but they are redesigning

00:46:10.760 and upgrading those

00:46:12.140 at a pace

00:46:13.320 that is much faster

00:46:14.400 than anyone else.

00:46:15.800 So,

00:46:16.320 the Chinese nuclear capability

00:46:18.280 is the only one

00:46:19.940 that is growing

00:46:20.620 extremely rapidly,

00:46:22.380 but from a low base.

00:46:24.060 I see.

00:46:24.620 And it is going

00:46:25.680 to end up

00:46:26.300 becoming perhaps

00:46:27.300 the most modern

00:46:28.280 or second only

00:46:29.500 to Russia's

00:46:30.360 in terms of

00:46:31.460 the most modern.

00:46:33.120 So,

00:46:34.060 this is a

00:46:34.860 very,

00:46:35.900 very dangerous

00:46:36.640 game

00:46:37.380 that's being played here.

00:46:40.420 And the Chinese

00:46:41.240 have got a very good,

00:46:42.240 pretty damn good

00:46:43.180 missile program.

00:46:45.460 I mean,

00:46:45.660 they send stuff

00:46:46.340 to the moon

00:46:46.940 all the time,

00:46:47.940 no problem.

00:46:48.820 And they have a base

00:46:49.340 on the dark side

00:46:49.880 of the moon.

00:46:50.340 Yeah,

00:46:50.720 they've sent,

00:46:51.200 yeah,

00:46:51.560 they've sent loads of stuff

00:46:52.200 to the dark side

00:46:52.680 of the moon.

00:46:53.160 And nobody knows

00:46:54.520 what it is

00:46:55.360 that they're doing

00:46:55.820 which seems to be

00:46:58.360 an important detail.

00:47:00.360 in terms of

00:47:02.040 the weapons platforms

00:47:03.280 that you can put there,

00:47:04.880 you won't detect

00:47:05.920 the launch

00:47:06.400 and you will only

00:47:08.800 notice something

00:47:10.180 coming your way

00:47:11.080 through the atmosphere.

00:47:12.580 Not certain

00:47:13.540 if it's just

00:47:14.320 some meteor

00:47:15.480 that you didn't

00:47:16.120 pick up on

00:47:16.640 or an actual

00:47:17.960 nuclear weapon.

00:47:19.240 So,

00:47:19.480 this is a bit

00:47:19.820 of a game-changing

00:47:20.520 thing that's happening

00:47:21.340 on the moon.

00:47:23.360 Yeah,

00:47:24.260 but so just to say

00:47:25.160 that the Chinese Navy

00:47:27.820 and their actual army

00:47:29.280 and all sorts

00:47:31.280 of weapon systems

00:47:32.260 are all geared

00:47:33.260 towards

00:47:33.880 if we might

00:47:35.420 one day

00:47:36.040 actually try

00:47:36.880 and physically

00:47:37.380 take Taiwan,

00:47:38.480 we've got everything

00:47:39.200 in our arsenal

00:47:39.860 to do

00:47:40.440 precisely that.

00:47:41.940 Well,

00:47:42.120 there's an implication

00:47:42.800 in that.

00:47:43.680 If they're designing

00:47:44.920 their military

00:47:45.500 to fight

00:47:46.380 for Taiwan

00:47:47.620 and Taiwan

00:47:48.660 is defended

00:47:49.280 by the US,

00:47:50.540 they're basically

00:47:51.940 saying we're designing

00:47:52.800 our military

00:47:53.220 to fight the US.

00:47:54.660 Which is also happening.

00:47:56.800 They're nowhere near there.

00:47:58.240 I think they have

00:47:58.660 three aircraft carriers

00:47:59.660 whereas the Americans

00:48:01.000 have 11 nuclear

00:48:02.160 and eight non-nuclear.

00:48:04.140 But the anti-ship missiles

00:48:05.780 that they have

00:48:06.360 are very impressive.

00:48:09.720 Some argue

00:48:10.620 that they can't

00:48:11.440 actually hit

00:48:11.980 a carrier with them.

00:48:13.520 We've seen

00:48:14.280 that if the Houthi

00:48:15.220 can hit a ship

00:48:16.120 with a drone,

00:48:17.640 then the Chinese

00:48:18.900 will hit some ships.

00:48:21.420 So that was one thing

00:48:22.460 I was going to say.

00:48:23.020 If it came to

00:48:23.960 a limited war

00:48:25.740 between the United States

00:48:26.740 and China,

00:48:27.500 let's not assume

00:48:27.980 they're just going to

00:48:28.540 carpet nuke

00:48:29.140 each other's cities.

00:48:30.380 It's a limited war

00:48:31.360 over Taiwan

00:48:32.920 and naval engagements

00:48:34.840 in the South China Sea.

00:48:36.800 I still think

00:48:37.540 the US would

00:48:38.240 win

00:48:39.940 fairly easy.

00:48:41.320 The US Navy

00:48:41.940 is a beer moth.

00:48:44.320 It's unbelievably big

00:48:46.140 and powerful.

00:48:49.420 So say one day

00:48:50.620 we wake up

00:48:51.280 and the Chinese

00:48:52.160 have done this.

00:48:52.760 They've used

00:48:53.160 these barges

00:48:56.980 with big bridges

00:48:58.040 on them

00:48:58.860 that could just

00:48:59.280 sail up

00:48:59.560 almost anywhere

00:49:00.680 on the coast

00:49:01.660 of Taiwan

00:49:02.700 and start unloading

00:49:04.040 tanks and armoured

00:49:05.120 vehicles and thousands

00:49:05.920 and thousands of men.

00:49:06.880 We just wake up

00:49:07.460 one morning

00:49:07.800 and that's happening.

00:49:08.420 And the Americans

00:49:11.260 I think of perhaps

00:49:12.680 the British response

00:49:13.520 to the Falklands.

00:49:14.240 They take a couple

00:49:14.860 of weeks

00:49:15.100 or a month

00:49:15.720 they get the entire

00:49:17.080 Pacific fleet

00:49:17.640 or even more

00:49:18.240 they get their Mediterranean

00:49:19.640 or their Atlantic fleet

00:49:20.500 they get together

00:49:21.020 and they do a giant

00:49:22.280 armada

00:49:22.960 of most of the US Navy.

00:49:25.800 The Chinese

00:49:26.620 can't stop that

00:49:27.540 short of nuking it.

00:49:28.920 They'd start

00:49:30.240 raining anti-ship missiles

00:49:31.580 on these vessels.

00:49:33.740 They've got

00:49:34.240 defences for that.

00:49:35.620 They've got some

00:49:36.240 defences for that

00:49:37.040 but the

00:49:37.840 defences almost

00:49:39.660 got exhausted

00:49:40.580 fighting the Yemenis

00:49:42.360 or there was a

00:49:43.520 serious problem

00:49:44.080 with the Yemenis.

00:49:44.800 That's one side

00:49:46.000 of it.

00:49:46.180 Fair point.

00:49:47.780 The other side

00:49:49.020 of it is

00:49:49.480 slightly more important.

00:49:51.580 50% of ship

00:49:52.900 building capability

00:49:53.800 is today in China

00:49:54.780 and 0.0

00:49:57.640 something percent

00:49:58.540 in the United States

00:49:59.780 with the rest

00:50:01.240 being mainly

00:50:02.180 in South Korea

00:50:02.980 and Japan.

00:50:03.980 So the only

00:50:04.360 three countries

00:50:05.000 that are building

00:50:05.700 ships today

00:50:06.360 are China,

00:50:07.740 South Korea

00:50:08.140 and Japan

00:50:08.580 at volume.

00:50:10.060 India has some,

00:50:10.920 Vietnam,

00:50:12.440 US,

00:50:13.400 etc.

00:50:13.620 Italy and

00:50:15.380 Germany

00:50:16.440 produce a lot

00:50:17.040 of luxury yachts

00:50:18.180 but the sort

00:50:19.700 of regular

00:50:20.340 run-of-the-mill

00:50:21.020 ship building

00:50:22.020 the Chinese

00:50:23.320 have an

00:50:23.960 enormously

00:50:24.860 dominant position.

00:50:26.800 And so

00:50:27.860 if this becomes

00:50:29.100 a long

00:50:29.780 industrial war

00:50:31.160 the Chinese

00:50:32.940 have big

00:50:33.900 advantages

00:50:34.480 and the closer

00:50:35.880 you push

00:50:36.660 Russia to China

00:50:37.700 the more

00:50:39.040 of a problem

00:50:39.540 you have

00:50:40.080 because one

00:50:40.680 of them

00:50:40.860 is a natural

00:50:41.340 resource superpower

00:50:42.180 and the other

00:50:42.760 is a manufacturing

00:50:43.460 superpower.

00:50:44.580 So the only

00:50:45.340 sensible policy

00:50:46.260 is to try

00:50:47.540 to separate

00:50:48.100 them somehow

00:50:48.760 from each other

00:50:50.720 from the United

00:50:52.200 States point of view

00:50:52.760 and from Britain's

00:50:53.360 point of view

00:50:53.700 as also

00:50:54.260 an aspiring

00:50:55.100 maritime power.

00:50:56.480 So I'd say

00:50:56.860 there's two things

00:50:57.420 there.

00:50:57.600 There's one

00:50:58.020 if there was

00:50:58.800 just a window

00:50:59.640 of a couple

00:51:00.240 of weeks

00:51:00.880 of whatever

00:51:01.900 China's got

00:51:02.660 versus whatever

00:51:03.300 the United States

00:51:03.940 has got

00:51:04.200 in terms of

00:51:04.640 military navies.

00:51:06.420 Right.

00:51:06.980 In those terms

00:51:08.280 I feel like

00:51:08.760 America wins.

00:51:09.360 If it's a much

00:51:09.960 longer

00:51:10.460 protracted thing

00:51:12.000 then yeah

00:51:12.660 okay so

00:51:13.040 China has

00:51:13.560 got a much

00:51:14.060 bigger

00:51:14.360 starting

00:51:15.380 manufacturing

00:51:16.000 base

00:51:16.300 but look

00:51:16.980 what America

00:51:17.360 did in World

00:51:17.940 War II.

00:51:19.060 They pumped

00:51:20.440 out an insane

00:51:21.580 navy

00:51:22.160 in a year

00:51:23.240 or two.

00:51:24.300 Insane.

00:51:25.160 They could do

00:51:25.800 that again

00:51:26.220 if they really

00:51:26.880 wanted to.

00:51:27.920 I don't see

00:51:28.360 any of this

00:51:29.180 happening by the

00:51:29.680 way.

00:51:30.120 But if it did

00:51:31.280 we're just

00:51:31.540 talking hypothetically

00:51:32.240 if it did

00:51:33.020 if China

00:51:33.980 went all out

00:51:34.880 to build

00:51:35.220 the biggest

00:51:35.700 baddest ass

00:51:36.300 navy it could

00:51:36.920 and the United

00:51:37.680 States did the

00:51:38.100 same thing

00:51:38.600 I feel like

00:51:39.840 the United

00:51:40.120 States win

00:51:40.620 again.

00:51:41.660 Right.

00:51:42.020 I don't know

00:51:42.480 but I don't

00:51:42.860 know.

00:51:43.280 Anyway say

00:51:43.720 this happened

00:51:44.280 because this

00:51:44.600 is interesting

00:51:45.000 is it that

00:51:45.360 they're very

00:51:46.400 very clearly

00:51:47.240 want to

00:51:50.320 invade Taiwan.

00:51:51.500 If America

00:51:52.100 if one day

00:51:52.840 the president

00:51:53.460 and the state

00:51:54.000 department

00:51:54.400 and the

00:51:54.800 Pentagon

00:51:55.020 said we

00:51:56.180 will not

00:51:56.780 defend Taiwan

00:51:57.580 I feel like

00:51:58.760 China would

00:51:59.380 bounce across

00:52:00.240 very quickly

00:52:01.880 and take it.

00:52:02.840 I think what

00:52:03.220 they would do

00:52:03.700 first is a

00:52:04.320 siege.

00:52:05.740 It's a

00:52:05.920 maritime siege.

00:52:07.320 Yeah.

00:52:07.420 So yeah

00:52:09.020 so this

00:52:09.820 image is

00:52:10.340 fascinating

00:52:10.900 because this

00:52:11.720 is the

00:52:12.100 various

00:52:12.500 Chinese

00:52:13.020 training

00:52:13.440 exercises

00:52:14.060 up to

00:52:14.700 2024.

00:52:17.260 It's blatant

00:52:18.160 isn't it?

00:52:18.520 It's so blatant.

00:52:19.220 Yeah.

00:52:19.700 I wonder what

00:52:20.460 they're practicing.

00:52:20.920 Yeah right.

00:52:22.040 And so

00:52:22.780 across the

00:52:23.840 across from

00:52:24.620 each of those

00:52:25.220 patches

00:52:25.660 is a

00:52:27.740 major Taiwanese

00:52:28.580 port and

00:52:29.960 the most

00:52:30.260 important one

00:52:30.860 is the

00:52:31.100 port of

00:52:31.380 Taipei in

00:52:31.840 the north.

00:52:33.120 And so

00:52:33.560 if you

00:52:34.360 blockade

00:52:35.100 that you

00:52:35.600 blockade a

00:52:36.260 lot of the

00:52:36.680 ability to

00:52:37.280 import

00:52:37.640 energy

00:52:38.060 and they

00:52:40.000 have a

00:52:40.440 decent

00:52:40.880 oil reserve

00:52:42.400 but they

00:52:43.420 don't have a

00:52:43.860 decent gas

00:52:44.400 reserve

00:52:44.780 and they've

00:52:45.980 decided to

00:52:46.480 shut down

00:52:46.900 their nuclear

00:52:47.440 because why

00:52:49.100 wouldn't you

00:52:49.560 when you're at

00:52:50.020 risk of

00:52:50.320 that's what

00:52:50.760 everyone does

00:52:51.240 these days

00:52:51.640 shut down

00:52:52.240 our nuclear

00:52:52.620 so this

00:52:53.240 was the

00:52:53.540 single most

00:52:53.980 insane

00:52:54.400 policy that

00:52:55.080 convinced a

00:52:55.580 bunch of

00:52:55.800 people that

00:52:56.180 the Taiwanese

00:52:57.720 aren't willing

00:52:58.420 to fight.

00:52:59.180 So why

00:52:59.380 enough didn't

00:52:59.720 the Chinese

00:53:00.120 do this

00:53:00.660 when Biden

00:53:01.700 was in

00:53:02.100 because that

00:53:03.300 was their

00:53:04.060 opportunity.

00:53:04.600 Well

00:53:05.440 Biden

00:53:06.040 just went

00:53:06.520 along

00:53:06.880 with

00:53:07.200 he

00:53:07.480 was an

00:53:08.020 establishment

00:53:08.580 puppet

00:53:09.280 and the

00:53:10.740 establishment

00:53:11.280 or at least

00:53:11.800 the Pentagon

00:53:12.780 State Department

00:53:13.960 establishment

00:53:14.440 want to keep

00:53:15.220 the status

00:53:15.640 quo

00:53:15.980 so they're

00:53:16.920 like go over

00:53:17.540 there and say

00:53:17.960 what every

00:53:18.420 president has

00:53:19.100 always said

00:53:19.660 that they sent

00:53:20.740 Kamala Harris

00:53:21.400 did a visit

00:53:21.980 didn't she

00:53:22.360 to Taiwan

00:53:22.760 the CCP

00:53:23.480 said don't

00:53:24.100 go over

00:53:24.520 there

00:53:24.800 don't do

00:53:25.600 that and

00:53:25.880 she's like

00:53:26.160 I'm doing

00:53:26.440 it anyway

00:53:26.720 I think

00:53:27.280 Pelosi

00:53:27.620 visited them

00:53:28.500 maybe I'm

00:53:28.800 thinking of

00:53:29.060 Pelosi

00:53:29.280 actually

00:53:29.480 Pelosi

00:53:29.840 visited

00:53:30.580 so

00:53:32.360 it would

00:53:34.500 if the

00:53:35.520 Chinese

00:53:35.860 again we

00:53:36.340 wake up one

00:53:36.780 morning the

00:53:37.180 Chinese are

00:53:37.660 invading Taiwan

00:53:38.460 it wouldn't

00:53:39.920 just be the

00:53:40.420 United States

00:53:40.900 as you say

00:53:41.400 then it

00:53:41.760 would be

00:53:42.020 the Japanese

00:53:42.680 would find

00:53:43.760 it and the

00:53:44.220 South Koreans

00:53:44.680 would find it

00:53:45.220 difficult to

00:53:46.600 not get

00:53:47.000 involved

00:53:47.500 quite quickly

00:53:49.240 on some

00:53:49.820 level

00:53:50.300 and then

00:53:52.060 just the

00:53:52.700 geopolitical

00:53:53.280 thing

00:53:53.480 the Russians

00:53:54.040 how and to

00:53:55.100 what extent

00:53:55.600 are they going

00:53:56.000 to stick

00:53:56.280 their oar in

00:53:56.980 it would

00:53:58.380 become

00:53:58.780 if not like

00:53:59.400 a World

00:53:59.820 War 2

00:54:00.540 style

00:54:01.080 World War

00:54:02.060 3

00:54:02.440 total war

00:54:03.160 if not

00:54:03.540 that

00:54:03.840 it would

00:54:04.680 be a

00:54:05.060 giant

00:54:05.360 conflict

00:54:05.820 quite

00:54:06.260 quickly

00:54:06.660 the US

00:54:07.240 have a

00:54:07.580 major

00:54:07.900 naval

00:54:08.360 base

00:54:08.800 in

00:54:09.160 Manila

00:54:09.520 which is

00:54:09.900 not far

00:54:10.480 south

00:54:10.820 of

00:54:11.000 Taiwan

00:54:11.280 yeah

00:54:11.640 right

00:54:11.900 well the

00:54:12.320 story of

00:54:12.840 the

00:54:12.960 Americans

00:54:13.340 and the

00:54:13.680 Philippines

00:54:14.100 how

00:54:14.560 storied

00:54:15.040 is that

00:54:15.440 MacArthur

00:54:16.340 I'll be

00:54:17.920 back

00:54:18.260 yeah

00:54:19.000 I'll be

00:54:19.600 back

00:54:19.780 I will

00:54:20.300 return

00:54:20.640 I think

00:54:20.880 it was

00:54:21.100 but yeah

00:54:21.840 the Americans

00:54:22.300 and the

00:54:22.620 Philippines

00:54:22.960 again it's

00:54:24.020 one of the

00:54:24.440 American

00:54:24.780 pillars of

00:54:26.200 their

00:54:26.420 foreign policy

00:54:27.580 of their

00:54:27.860 sort of their

00:54:28.220 entire world

00:54:29.120 hegemon

00:54:29.640 yes

00:54:30.220 is that no

00:54:30.860 one

00:54:31.180 mucks with

00:54:32.660 the Philippines

00:54:33.200 on our

00:54:33.620 watch

00:54:33.940 and whether

00:54:35.900 they'll sort

00:54:36.440 of if the

00:54:37.160 again if the

00:54:37.920 Chinese did do

00:54:38.480 this in

00:54:38.760 2027 or

00:54:39.580 whenever

00:54:39.880 what would

00:54:41.380 the Americans

00:54:41.840 if the Chinese

00:54:42.360 called the

00:54:42.740 Americans

00:54:43.080 bluff

00:54:43.480 said no

00:54:44.240 we're taking

00:54:44.600 Taiwan

00:54:44.900 look we're

00:54:45.260 doing it

00:54:45.520 it's

00:54:45.600 happening

00:54:45.840 yeah

00:54:46.540 what would

00:54:47.280 Trump and

00:54:48.360 Rubio and

00:54:49.000 Hegseth

00:54:49.540 do would

00:54:50.920 they do

00:54:51.380 you think

00:54:51.620 they would

00:54:51.940 get together

00:54:52.620 eight aircraft

00:54:54.060 carriers

00:54:54.580 would they kick

00:54:55.260 off the

00:54:55.600 war to

00:54:55.980 defend Taiwan

00:54:56.580 I don't

00:54:58.160 know it'd be

00:54:59.560 interesting it

00:55:01.120 would be

00:55:01.540 interesting it's

00:55:02.740 maybe one way

00:55:03.360 to reinvest

00:55:03.940 lives yes

00:55:04.560 so there's

00:55:06.520 just the

00:55:06.820 implications

00:55:07.380 of this

00:55:08.260 could be

00:55:10.120 big

00:55:11.000 and I

00:55:11.480 think

00:55:11.700 Xi

00:55:12.260 not that I

00:55:12.900 really know

00:55:13.620 the mind

00:55:14.160 of Xi

00:55:14.480 Jinping

00:55:14.660 but he

00:55:16.520 does sometimes

00:55:17.060 still talk

00:55:17.620 about the

00:55:18.040 century of

00:55:18.480 humiliation

00:55:18.920 the 19th

00:55:19.460 century

00:55:19.760 yes

00:55:20.220 where the

00:55:21.240 rest of the

00:55:22.100 powers in

00:55:22.540 the world

00:55:22.820 United States

00:55:23.440 Russia

00:55:23.720 Britain

00:55:24.200 it was

00:55:24.720 mainly Britain

00:55:25.300 doing the

00:55:25.840 humiliation

00:55:26.360 well

00:55:27.360 yeah

00:55:28.660 everybody

00:55:29.160 the opium

00:55:29.920 wars

00:55:30.280 yeah

00:55:30.780 the opium

00:55:31.380 wars

00:55:31.680 obviously

00:55:33.720 they're way

00:55:34.480 that's long

00:55:35.180 gone now

00:55:35.840 but still

00:55:36.580 that we

00:55:36.980 just they

00:55:37.380 won't have

00:55:38.160 anyone else

00:55:39.320 in the world

00:55:39.620 tell them

00:55:40.360 their business

00:55:40.980 yes

00:55:41.600 if we want

00:55:42.640 to take

00:55:42.960 Taiwan

00:55:43.340 we're going

00:55:43.880 to do it

00:55:44.320 yes

00:55:44.760 that does

00:55:45.500 seem to be

00:55:46.100 his mind

00:55:47.000 sort of his

00:55:48.600 headspace

00:55:49.200 yes

00:55:49.640 where he is

00:55:50.600 and the fact

00:55:52.340 that they

00:55:52.640 consider it

00:55:53.060 just sort of

00:55:53.480 a renegade

00:55:54.620 province

00:55:55.220 sort of

00:55:55.780 don't they

00:55:56.240 that's what

00:55:56.560 they consider

00:55:56.960 it to be

00:55:57.460 and

00:56:00.060 things like

00:56:00.840 this

00:56:01.160 and

00:56:01.620 all those

00:56:02.620 all those

00:56:03.140 barges

00:56:03.700 with

00:56:03.980 bridges

00:56:05.180 on them

00:56:05.880 landing

00:56:06.980 trying to

00:56:08.360 perfect the

00:56:08.860 art of

00:56:09.320 beach landings

00:56:10.460 and stuff

00:56:10.960 it is a bit

00:56:11.520 ominous

00:56:12.020 like what

00:56:13.120 Hexer said

00:56:13.720 my point is

00:56:14.340 is what

00:56:14.600 Hexer said

00:56:15.160 there

00:56:15.340 isn't

00:56:15.900 pointless

00:56:16.220 sabre

00:56:16.660 rattling

00:56:16.960 from the

00:56:17.380 United States

00:56:17.920 no no

00:56:18.300 I don't

00:56:18.740 think it's

00:56:19.200 just

00:56:19.460 sensationalism

00:56:20.980 I think

00:56:21.320 there's

00:56:21.560 a real

00:56:22.160 thing

00:56:22.400 there

00:56:22.560 these

00:56:22.680 kind of

00:56:23.060 training

00:56:23.380 exercises

00:56:23.980 the idea

00:56:24.800 is to

00:56:25.500 say to

00:56:26.200 Taiwan

00:56:26.560 that we

00:56:26.960 can choke

00:56:27.360 you off

00:56:27.740 you're

00:56:27.940 better off

00:56:28.300 submitting

00:56:28.640 peacefully

00:56:29.080 you're

00:56:31.080 better off

00:56:31.620 just

00:56:31.840 accepting

00:56:32.340 that you're

00:56:32.780 part of

00:56:33.100 China

00:56:33.360 whether you

00:56:33.820 like it

00:56:34.120 or not

00:56:34.520 the alternative

00:56:36.160 is a war

00:56:36.940 that puts you

00:56:37.660 in the same

00:56:38.020 position as

00:56:38.740 Ukraine

00:56:39.120 because the

00:56:41.100 Taiwanese economy

00:56:42.220 can't function

00:56:43.120 if the Chinese

00:56:43.880 wanted to

00:56:44.500 stop functioning

00:56:45.180 and because

00:56:48.160 the amount

00:56:49.000 of damage

00:56:50.440 that they can

00:56:50.840 do in

00:56:51.120 just

00:56:51.340 terms of

00:56:52.280 switching off

00:56:53.120 the electricity

00:56:53.680 in terms of

00:56:55.260 endless drone

00:56:56.100 warfare

00:56:56.480 in terms

00:56:57.780 of just

00:56:58.240 constant

00:56:59.040 bombardment

00:56:59.720 and harassment

00:57:00.260 is going

00:57:02.220 to be

00:57:02.600 very

00:57:03.180 the softly

00:57:03.760 softly

00:57:04.120 approach

00:57:04.500 probably

00:57:04.760 wouldn't

00:57:04.980 have

00:57:05.100 worked

00:57:05.380 better

00:57:05.780 if they

00:57:06.060 had

00:57:06.180 actually

00:57:06.420 respected

00:57:07.020 Hong Kong's

00:57:08.300 autonomy

00:57:08.700 more

00:57:09.120 so the

00:57:10.280 Thai

00:57:10.500 would know

00:57:11.060 what's going

00:57:11.420 to happen

00:57:11.700 if they come

00:57:12.720 along peacefully

00:57:13.280 it's not like

00:57:13.740 the Chinese

00:57:14.200 are invincible

00:57:15.260 though

00:57:15.840 talk about

00:57:17.860 drone strikes

00:57:18.440 what about

00:57:18.880 a big drone

00:57:20.020 on the

00:57:20.900 Three Gorges

00:57:21.460 Dam

00:57:21.780 you can't

00:57:23.080 bring down

00:57:23.460 something as

00:57:23.880 big as

00:57:24.140 the Three

00:57:24.440 Gorges Dam

00:57:25.000 well you

00:57:25.660 wouldn't

00:57:25.920 think so

00:57:26.560 but

00:57:27.480 militarily

00:57:28.540 I think

00:57:29.380 just think

00:57:29.940 about the

00:57:30.220 difficulty

00:57:30.600 that the

00:57:31.020 Allies had

00:57:31.500 in terms

00:57:31.780 of destroying

00:57:32.260 dams in

00:57:32.720 the Second

00:57:33.020 World War

00:57:33.560 yes there's

00:57:34.500 a solution

00:57:34.880 the dam

00:57:35.440 busters

00:57:35.820 yes

00:57:36.380 Gorges

00:57:36.680 316

00:57:37.180 617

00:57:38.660 yeah no

00:57:39.300 they were

00:57:39.500 quite successful

00:57:40.060 they blew

00:57:40.400 up a couple

00:57:40.720 of dams

00:57:41.180 no problem

00:57:41.820 but the

00:57:43.680 size of

00:57:44.300 that thing

00:57:44.840 is so

00:57:45.360 monumental

00:57:45.900 yeah

00:57:47.620 that the

00:57:48.820 number of

00:57:49.520 attempts that

00:57:50.100 you have to

00:57:50.500 make against

00:57:51.060 it is just

00:57:51.980 insane

00:57:52.720 the nature

00:57:53.200 of dams

00:57:53.680 though

00:57:53.780 particularly

00:57:54.160 that one

00:57:54.740 is that the

00:57:55.140 pressures are

00:57:55.580 so huge

00:57:56.360 that you need

00:57:57.140 only put a

00:57:57.580 crack in it

00:57:58.200 and the

00:57:59.060 billions of

00:57:59.720 tons of

00:58:00.100 water do

00:58:00.640 the rest

00:58:01.000 for you

00:58:01.460 but anyway

00:58:02.400 talk about

00:58:02.820 dam busting

00:58:03.440 perhaps for

00:58:03.980 another day

00:58:04.480 I would happily

00:58:06.080 talk all about

00:58:06.840 the physics of

00:58:07.440 dam busting

00:58:07.980 fair enough

00:58:08.460 in fact I did

00:58:09.660 a bit of

00:58:09.920 content about

00:58:10.440 that recently

00:58:11.040 okay

00:58:11.640 so yeah

00:58:14.620 and the

00:58:14.960 superconductor

00:58:15.380 thing so

00:58:15.780 all right

00:58:16.640 there's just

00:58:16.980 that just a

00:58:17.440 bit of an

00:58:17.700 update on

00:58:18.260 Taiwan and

00:58:19.220 that it could

00:58:19.760 be a flashpoint

00:58:20.600 in fact at

00:58:21.280 some point in

00:58:21.740 the future

00:58:22.020 it probably

00:58:22.460 will be a

00:58:23.860 flashpoint I

00:58:24.600 would think

00:58:25.240 I hope it's

00:58:26.280 I hope to be

00:58:27.000 proven wrong

00:58:27.480 I hope that

00:58:28.580 last statement

00:58:29.160 dates terribly

00:58:30.500 I fear it

00:58:31.680 won't

00:58:32.020 do you want to

00:58:32.460 pick out one or two

00:58:33.080 of the comments

00:58:33.540 before we move on

00:58:34.560 yeah all right

00:58:36.280 so let's see

00:58:37.800 it's fleshing up

00:58:39.140 and down for

00:58:39.480 me

00:58:39.840 Arizona's

00:58:41.800 TSMC plant

00:58:42.860 will supply

00:58:43.300 40 plus

00:58:44.060 percent of

00:58:44.500 chips in

00:58:45.040 the world

00:58:45.400 and I think

00:58:46.120 I read about

00:58:46.560 an expansion

00:58:47.080 beyond this

00:58:47.620 when it

00:58:47.880 starts operating

00:58:48.620 right

00:58:50.100 when it

00:58:50.580 when it

00:58:50.900 gets built

00:58:51.300 and starts

00:58:51.620 operating

00:58:52.020 but there's

00:58:52.400 been problems

00:58:52.820 with that

00:58:53.140 yes

00:58:53.420 okay

00:58:54.120 I remember

00:58:55.080 watching a video

00:58:55.560 about Taiwan's

00:58:56.300 plan if the

00:58:56.880 CCP invades

00:58:57.660 basically it

00:58:58.340 would involve

00:58:58.700 airstrikes

00:58:59.200 against the

00:58:59.620 Three Gorges

00:59:00.020 Dam

00:59:00.320 killing hundreds

00:59:01.240 of millions

00:59:01.740 thoughts

00:59:02.180 yeah that would

00:59:02.940 be a disastrous

00:59:03.440 thing

00:59:03.760 yeah be horrible

00:59:04.420 yeah millions

00:59:05.180 and millions

00:59:05.500 of people

00:59:05.940 would be swept

00:59:07.200 away

00:59:07.580 Bo I think

00:59:08.600 you're forgetting

00:59:08.980 drone warfare

00:59:09.660 in particular

00:59:10.360 USVs

00:59:11.320 unmanned

00:59:11.760 surface vehicles

00:59:12.520 Ukraine has

00:59:13.480 made a lot

00:59:13.980 of them

00:59:14.360 and taken

00:59:15.000 out a lot

00:59:15.420 of the

00:59:15.600 Russian

00:59:15.800 Navy

00:59:16.000 yeah there

00:59:16.360 are naval

00:59:17.080 yeah there's

00:59:17.880 a whole world

00:59:18.380 of naval

00:59:18.940 drones

00:59:19.380 yes

00:59:19.740 yeah no

00:59:20.520 good point

00:59:21.640 but again both

00:59:22.480 sides would be

00:59:22.920 doing that

00:59:23.380 yeah

00:59:23.800 if it came to

00:59:24.500 an extended

00:59:25.460 naval war

00:59:26.620 between the

00:59:27.000 Chinese and

00:59:27.420 the Americans

00:59:27.740 well both

00:59:28.180 sides would

00:59:28.600 be doing it

00:59:29.020 yeah

00:59:29.200 yeah

00:59:29.820 okay so

00:59:30.980 should we move

00:59:31.420 on there were

00:59:31.700 a few more

00:59:32.000 comments I'm

00:59:32.360 afraid but we

00:59:32.780 have to move

00:59:33.120 on sorry

00:59:33.480 about that

00:59:34.020 so we

00:59:35.640 have the

00:59:36.280 rather interesting

00:59:37.160 case of

00:59:38.240 Keir Starmer

00:59:39.140 and roguish

00:59:42.060 good looks

00:59:42.560 boyish pretty

00:59:43.660 young boys

00:59:44.380 who appear

00:59:45.820 to have

00:59:47.880 some grudge

00:59:48.580 against him

00:59:49.120 we don't know

00:59:50.320 why it's a bit

00:59:51.580 of a mystery

00:59:52.080 you can speculate

00:59:52.800 I did a daily

00:59:53.920 video on this

00:59:54.720 trying to get

00:59:55.240 to the bottom

00:59:55.740 of you know

00:59:58.260 why it is

00:59:58.860 that these

00:59:59.380 you know

00:59:59.640 very pretty

01:00:00.160 pretty young

01:00:00.900 men

01:00:01.200 no pun

01:00:02.880 intended

01:00:03.220 yes

01:00:03.720 get into

01:00:04.060 the bottom

01:00:04.380 of it

01:00:04.640 no no

01:00:05.080 none at

01:00:05.860 all

01:00:06.060 as to why

01:00:07.720 they have

01:00:08.320 this enormous

01:00:08.960 grudge against

01:00:09.800 the Prime Minister

01:00:10.280 and how they

01:00:10.840 seem to know

01:00:11.480 where he was

01:00:12.960 living

01:00:13.320 and what car

01:00:14.260 he was driving

01:00:14.780 only a few

01:00:15.380 years ago

01:00:15.720 that was the

01:00:16.120 very first

01:00:16.640 thing I thought

01:00:17.100 they said it

01:00:17.580 was some

01:00:17.960 flat in North

01:00:18.840 London somewhere

01:00:19.600 and I'm like

01:00:20.000 yes

01:00:20.320 I thought that

01:00:21.520 that would be

01:00:22.100 a secret

01:00:22.560 like a sort

01:00:23.000 of a state

01:00:23.440 secret

01:00:23.600 I don't know

01:00:24.140 where the Prime

01:00:24.540 Minister lives

01:00:25.080 but

01:00:25.880 for that

01:00:27.020 matter

01:00:27.340 there's a

01:00:29.020 flat above

01:00:29.540 number 10

01:00:30.140 and you've

01:00:30.480 got checkers

01:00:31.120 oh I know

01:00:31.560 I know about

01:00:31.900 10 Downings

01:00:32.400 but where he

01:00:32.960 used to live

01:00:33.640 yeah who

01:00:34.160 know who

01:00:34.640 would

01:00:34.860 as well as

01:00:36.040 his car

01:00:37.220 a RAV4

01:00:38.220 Toyota

01:00:38.620 yes

01:00:39.340 they found

01:00:39.820 out about

01:00:40.200 which car

01:00:40.800 he had

01:00:41.340 previously

01:00:42.240 and they

01:00:43.480 found two

01:00:44.260 of his

01:00:44.540 properties

01:00:44.920 not one

01:00:45.420 which suggests

01:00:47.180 a long-term

01:00:49.360 association

01:00:50.160 shall we say

01:00:50.940 that

01:00:51.860 or just

01:00:53.160 MI5 told

01:00:54.900 them

01:00:55.200 or someone

01:00:56.740 told them

01:00:57.160 or Ukrainian

01:00:58.300 intelligence

01:00:58.740 services

01:00:59.220 but they are

01:00:59.560 all Ukrainian

01:01:00.140 that is odd

01:01:00.960 isn't it

01:01:01.460 yes

01:01:01.760 that's odd

01:01:02.200 all of them

01:01:03.280 I think

01:01:04.320 there might be

01:01:05.440 one Romanian

01:01:06.040 or something

01:01:06.500 Romanian citizenship

01:01:07.800 originally Ukrainian

01:01:08.800 oh okay

01:01:09.180 so they're all

01:01:09.860 Ukrainian

01:01:10.060 so Ukrainian

01:01:10.580 right

01:01:11.140 and are they

01:01:12.420 I know it's a bit

01:01:13.120 of a sensitive

01:01:13.680 perhaps the most

01:01:14.380 sensitive thing

01:01:15.000 but are they

01:01:16.460 male prostitutes

01:01:19.660 oh

01:01:20.380 goodness

01:01:22.000 but we

01:01:22.420 couldn't

01:01:22.600 possibly

01:01:22.900 are we

01:01:23.240 not

01:01:23.420 are we

01:01:23.640 honestly

01:01:23.920 not

01:01:24.160 no no

01:01:25.120 what they

01:01:26.060 are is

01:01:27.120 male models

01:01:28.040 and there

01:01:28.640 are apps

01:01:29.200 that you

01:01:29.580 can go on

01:01:30.360 where if

01:01:31.320 you're you

01:01:31.880 know you're

01:01:32.180 sat around

01:01:32.740 on a Saturday

01:01:33.940 night you've

01:01:34.520 had a bottle

01:01:34.880 of wine

01:01:35.180 and you just

01:01:35.720 suddenly realise

01:01:36.720 that what

01:01:37.880 you need

01:01:39.360 right now

01:01:39.800 is a male

01:01:40.440 model

01:01:40.760 because you've

01:01:42.140 got a watch

01:01:42.940 that needs

01:01:43.520 you know

01:01:43.900 a male model

01:01:45.260 you can go

01:01:46.780 on this app

01:01:47.540 and you can

01:01:48.420 summon a male

01:01:49.860 model to you

01:01:50.460 at short

01:01:51.080 notice

01:01:51.360 if you need

01:01:51.740 ah

01:01:52.000 at short

01:01:52.720 notice

01:01:53.040 you need

01:01:53.360 some modelling

01:01:53.900 if you need

01:01:54.860 some modelling

01:01:55.240 at home

01:01:55.700 in your home

01:01:56.580 yes

01:01:57.100 and it appears

01:01:59.120 that well we

01:01:59.920 know that some

01:02:00.520 of these

01:02:00.980 very pretty

01:02:02.000 young men

01:02:02.440 I don't know

01:02:02.960 the middle

01:02:03.280 one's a bit

01:02:03.720 rough

01:02:03.960 isn't he

01:02:05.360 up to your

01:02:08.420 taste

01:02:08.820 looks like an

01:02:10.520 ugly person

01:02:11.200 if you ask me

01:02:11.900 well maybe it's

01:02:12.580 just a bad

01:02:13.040 shot

01:02:13.460 I don't know

01:02:14.580 maybe it's

01:02:16.340 I don't know

01:02:17.300 I don't know

01:02:17.760 it's all very

01:02:18.560 short term

01:02:19.200 so you sort

01:02:19.760 of you know

01:02:20.240 on short

01:02:20.680 notice

01:02:21.040 you

01:02:21.340 right

01:02:21.980 there is a

01:02:22.480 photo of what

01:02:23.060 he looked like

01:02:23.620 there was a

01:02:24.480 photo of what

01:02:24.920 he looked like

01:02:25.320 when Keir Starmer

01:02:26.040 was living in

01:02:26.540 the other

01:02:26.760 property

01:02:27.140 and he was

01:02:27.480 a lot more

01:02:28.060 boyish

01:02:28.480 very Owen

01:02:29.760 Jones-ish

01:02:30.600 he looked

01:02:32.740 like

01:02:33.100 yes

01:02:34.220 so maybe

01:02:35.240 while they

01:02:36.120 were going

01:02:36.640 to male

01:02:37.420 modelling

01:02:37.760 jobs

01:02:38.120 because presumably

01:02:38.700 they were

01:02:39.000 busy

01:02:39.300 because they're

01:02:39.780 very pretty

01:02:40.220 so maybe

01:02:41.000 they were

01:02:41.260 busy

01:02:41.540 going to

01:02:42.120 and fro

01:02:42.620 all these

01:02:43.260 male modelling

01:02:43.820 jobs

01:02:44.280 and whilst

01:02:46.100 walking the

01:02:46.680 streets of

01:02:47.120 London

01:02:47.360 they saw

01:02:48.240 Keir Starmer

01:02:49.720 coming out

01:02:50.160 of a house

01:02:50.460 and going

01:02:50.720 into a car

01:02:51.260 maybe that's

01:02:51.820 how they

01:02:52.140 know

01:02:52.560 and his

01:02:54.860 foreign policy

01:02:55.560 isn't good

01:02:56.840 enough for

01:02:57.280 them

01:02:57.560 from the

01:02:58.440 Ukrainians

01:02:58.820 so they're

01:02:59.180 taking revenge

01:02:59.900 oh I

01:03:00.980 I presume

01:03:01.540 it's the

01:03:01.960 doesn't make

01:03:02.480 any sense

01:03:02.940 does it

01:03:03.220 none of

01:03:03.500 this

01:03:03.620 adds up

01:03:04.320 it's

01:03:05.340 it is

01:03:05.800 very odd

01:03:06.340 it doesn't

01:03:06.840 add up

01:03:07.180 even stranger

01:03:08.280 is that

01:03:08.700 nobody in

01:03:09.240 the media

01:03:09.580 is asking

01:03:10.140 about

01:03:10.400 that's

01:03:10.880 funny

01:03:11.200 isn't it

01:03:11.760 that these

01:03:12.540 guys would

01:03:13.120 be on

01:03:13.440 these

01:03:13.660 apps

01:03:14.100 would know

01:03:14.860 where the

01:03:15.180 prime minister

01:03:15.700 lives

01:03:16.220 yes

01:03:16.700 and would

01:03:17.840 have

01:03:18.460 enough

01:03:18.960 reason

01:03:19.340 I mean

01:03:19.640 it seems

01:03:20.260 one of

01:03:20.800 them was

01:03:21.160 the arsonist

01:03:21.880 and the

01:03:22.780 others were

01:03:23.440 accomplices

01:03:24.080 these are

01:03:24.580 the allegations

01:03:25.180 so far

01:03:25.880 right

01:03:26.540 we don't

01:03:27.260 know that

01:03:27.700 for a fact

01:03:28.220 but these

01:03:28.580 are the

01:03:28.820 allegations

01:03:29.300 but then

01:03:31.040 what exactly

01:03:33.400 is the

01:03:33.880 nature of

01:03:34.460 the relationship

01:03:35.200 was this

01:03:37.280 an intelligence

01:03:38.100 operation

01:03:38.680 by a foreign

01:03:39.400 adversary

01:03:39.860 that decided

01:03:40.840 that there

01:03:42.400 is a

01:03:42.640 strategic

01:03:43.040 importance

01:03:43.640 to an

01:03:44.420 old

01:03:44.700 RAV4

01:03:45.240 or to a

01:03:47.960 property

01:03:48.300 in which

01:03:48.820 he no

01:03:49.120 longer

01:03:49.360 lived

01:03:49.820 or was

01:03:51.120 this

01:03:51.480 personal

01:03:52.340 or was

01:03:53.120 this

01:03:53.460 anyway

01:03:54.180 yes

01:03:55.120 that's a

01:03:55.420 very good

01:03:55.700 question

01:03:56.060 like what

01:03:56.480 did they

01:03:56.740 think

01:03:56.940 they probably

01:03:58.200 I would

01:03:58.820 have

01:03:58.920 thought

01:03:59.080 I'm guessing

01:03:59.680 weren't trying

01:04:00.400 to actually

01:04:01.020 assassinate

01:04:01.640 him

01:04:01.880 so what

01:04:03.120 so what

01:04:03.640 are you

01:04:03.820 doing

01:04:04.120 why are you

01:04:04.520 burning up

01:04:05.340 his old

01:04:05.800 car

01:04:06.200 or a car

01:04:06.820 that he's

01:04:07.160 not in

01:04:07.500 or anywhere

01:04:07.840 near

01:04:08.120 what

01:04:08.400 so you're

01:04:09.520 sending

01:04:09.720 a message

01:04:10.000 of some

01:04:12.260 type

01:04:12.500 you do

01:04:12.860 why

01:04:13.380 you do get

01:04:14.200 why

01:04:14.560 you know

01:04:15.500 I'm sure

01:04:16.420 these young

01:04:17.020 men have

01:04:17.460 well actually

01:04:18.020 I didn't

01:04:18.600 can't

01:04:18.800 Keir Starmer

01:04:19.220 said that he

01:04:19.740 knew one

01:04:20.200 of them

01:04:20.360 he played

01:04:20.760 cards with

01:04:21.480 one of

01:04:21.720 them

01:04:21.840 what

01:04:22.060 I don't

01:04:23.220 know

01:04:23.360 maybe that's

01:04:24.140 something I

01:04:24.460 heard

01:04:24.600 what

01:04:24.960 possible

01:04:25.360 way

01:04:25.960 would

01:04:26.440 a senior

01:04:28.260 it doesn't

01:04:29.120 make any

01:04:29.660 sense does

01:04:30.200 it

01:04:30.280 maybe

01:04:30.820 look

01:04:31.420 I'm sure

01:04:32.280 Keir Starmer

01:04:32.780 has probably

01:04:33.540 never met

01:04:34.120 you know

01:04:34.520 these very

01:04:35.640 pretty young

01:04:36.180 men

01:04:36.380 but if

01:04:37.480 you know

01:04:38.460 if one

01:04:39.100 intelligence

01:04:39.640 services had

01:04:40.400 any compromise

01:04:41.040 I'm sure

01:04:41.680 that you know

01:04:42.380 it wouldn't be

01:04:42.840 in their

01:04:43.100 interest to

01:04:43.560 use it

01:04:44.000 but maybe

01:04:44.440 maybe it

01:04:45.440 might be in

01:04:46.120 somebody else's

01:04:46.680 interest to

01:04:47.420 get the story

01:04:48.920 to come to

01:04:49.600 light

01:04:49.780 I don't know

01:04:50.600 there's some

01:04:52.400 4D chess

01:04:53.040 going on

01:04:53.580 we have to

01:04:54.240 speculate

01:04:55.460 wildly

01:04:56.380 because

01:04:57.700 the mainstream

01:04:58.860 media has

01:04:59.660 decided they

01:05:00.220 can't talk

01:05:00.720 about this

01:05:01.180 for whatever

01:05:02.060 reason

01:05:02.440 it might be

01:05:03.160 a denotis

01:05:03.820 do you know

01:05:04.000 about denotises

01:05:04.740 do you think

01:05:06.020 maybe that's

01:05:06.740 going on

01:05:07.140 that's why

01:05:07.460 the mainstream

01:05:07.800 media is not

01:05:08.360 saying anything

01:05:09.080 yes

01:05:09.480 but we're

01:05:10.260 not covered

01:05:10.700 no one's been

01:05:11.760 in contact

01:05:12.140 with us

01:05:12.540 have they

01:05:12.860 no one's

01:05:14.020 emailed us

01:05:14.760 we can say

01:05:15.580 whatever we

01:05:15.920 like

01:05:16.220 until we get

01:05:17.620 arrested

01:05:17.940 anyway

01:05:18.360 so

01:05:20.120 very odd

01:05:21.060 so these

01:05:22.520 three

01:05:22.920 pretty young

01:05:24.500 chaps

01:05:24.860 for some

01:05:27.040 reason

01:05:27.420 are involved

01:05:28.720 in this

01:05:28.980 way

01:05:29.100 and there's

01:05:29.400 a fourth

01:05:29.720 man

01:05:30.040 the fourth

01:05:31.760 man

01:05:32.140 here we go

01:05:33.720 fourth man

01:05:34.920 arrested

01:05:35.360 over fires

01:05:36.640 at homes

01:05:37.380 linked

01:05:37.880 to the

01:05:39.100 Prime Minister

01:05:39.720 what does

01:05:43.460 this say

01:05:43.760 a fourth

01:05:44.400 man has

01:05:44.760 been arrested

01:05:45.160 over a series

01:05:45.740 of fires

01:05:46.160 connected to

01:05:46.700 the Prime

01:05:47.060 Minister

01:05:47.340 Sakir

01:05:47.740 Starmer

01:05:48.260 the police

01:05:49.120 have said

01:05:49.640 so he's

01:05:52.180 an arsonist

01:05:53.240 as well

01:05:54.280 oh he's

01:05:57.180 a Ukrainian

01:05:57.580 as well

01:05:58.720 is it

01:05:59.760 Petro

01:06:00.380 Potronok

01:06:02.220 no no no

01:06:03.060 that's not him

01:06:03.500 that's a previous

01:06:04.540 one we don't

01:06:05.040 know what his

01:06:05.480 nationality is

01:06:06.160 no I'm pretty

01:06:06.760 sure this one

01:06:07.240 is Ukrainian

01:06:07.780 as well

01:06:08.200 I read it

01:06:08.540 somewhere

01:06:08.740 oh I don't

01:06:11.720 know

01:06:11.900 maybe I'll

01:06:12.680 come back

01:06:12.940 to them

01:06:13.220 but I got

01:06:14.180 the impression

01:06:14.580 the other

01:06:15.180 one was

01:06:15.540 a Ukrainian

01:06:15.960 as well

01:06:16.320 but maybe

01:06:16.640 I could

01:06:17.260 be wrong

01:06:17.560 at that

01:06:17.840 yeah so

01:06:19.040 the last

01:06:19.480 line here

01:06:19.820 says the

01:06:20.120 other fire

01:06:20.680 took place

01:06:21.280 on May

01:06:21.720 11th at

01:06:22.280 the front

01:06:22.760 door of

01:06:23.300 a house

01:06:23.640 converted

01:06:24.940 into flats

01:06:25.580 that was

01:06:25.880 presumably

01:06:26.160 associated

01:06:26.640 with a

01:06:26.980 Prime Minister

01:06:27.720 I mean I

01:06:28.040 do hope

01:06:28.420 that the

01:06:28.860 I think his

01:06:29.620 sister-in-law

01:06:30.240 is living

01:06:30.560 there

01:06:30.760 I might

01:06:31.020 have that

01:06:31.760 wrong

01:06:31.900 but I

01:06:32.140 read somewhere

01:06:33.220 that

01:06:33.460 I do hope

01:06:35.100 the front

01:06:35.960 door of the

01:06:36.380 Prime Minister

01:06:36.820 is safe

01:06:37.380 and I

01:06:37.880 hope that

01:06:38.240 the back

01:06:38.560 door of the

01:06:39.020 Prime Minister

01:06:39.460 is safe

01:06:39.860 from these

01:06:40.260 pretty young

01:06:41.180 men

01:06:41.440 the Prime

01:06:44.260 Minister's

01:06:44.680 doors

01:06:45.060 should not

01:06:46.520 be violated

01:06:47.720 in any

01:06:48.200 way

01:06:48.500 you know

01:06:50.460 that is

01:06:50.800 important

01:06:51.060 so anyway

01:06:51.640 for multiple

01:06:52.560 reasons

01:06:53.020 and we

01:06:53.460 don't want

01:06:54.820 to be

01:06:55.000 arrested

01:06:55.280 so we

01:06:55.740 move swiftly

01:06:56.360 on

01:06:56.680 a man's

01:06:57.120 front and

01:06:57.440 back

01:06:57.620 door is

01:06:57.900 his own

01:06:58.120 private

01:06:58.380 kingdom

01:06:58.680 sir

01:06:59.000 she defended

01:06:59.780 with his

01:07:00.120 life

01:07:00.420 yeah

01:07:02.920 it's

01:07:06.440 super

01:07:07.040 super

01:07:07.460 weird

01:07:08.060 it's

01:07:09.060 super

01:07:09.300 super

01:07:09.580 weird

01:07:10.100 yes

01:07:10.720 that

01:07:12.340 whatever

01:07:12.680 it is

01:07:12.980 even if

01:07:13.400 it is

01:07:13.700 just

01:07:14.120 some

01:07:14.800 sort

01:07:15.120 of

01:07:15.440 to do

01:07:16.340 with

01:07:16.560 his

01:07:16.920 personal

01:07:17.440 life

01:07:17.960 even if

01:07:18.900 it's

01:07:19.060 just

01:07:19.320 as

01:07:19.540 simple

01:07:19.760 as

01:07:19.940 that

01:07:20.260 yes

01:07:20.740 then

01:07:21.600 I mean

01:07:22.560 talk about

01:07:22.880 the

01:07:23.040 perfumo

01:07:23.500 affair

01:07:23.900 this is

01:07:24.220 actually

01:07:24.420 bad

01:07:24.640 they're

01:07:24.780 firebombing

01:07:25.380 stuff

01:07:25.780 yes

01:07:26.140 like it's

01:07:26.900 proper

01:07:27.360 criminal

01:07:27.940 things

01:07:28.280 it's

01:07:28.420 not

01:07:28.540 just

01:07:28.760 a

01:07:29.080 disgrace

01:07:29.380 it's

01:07:29.560 not

01:07:29.660 just

01:07:29.800 embarrassing

01:07:30.340 personally

01:07:31.320 it's

01:07:31.600 actually

01:07:32.120 crimes

01:07:34.320 are

01:07:34.600 happening

01:07:34.860 I

01:07:35.200 have

01:07:35.700 a

01:07:35.820 feeling

01:07:36.100 there's

01:07:36.480 going to

01:07:36.760 be a

01:07:36.980 huge amount

01:07:37.460 of trouble

01:07:37.920 in getting

01:07:38.520 the documents

01:07:39.080 for the

01:07:39.420 trial

01:07:39.700 yes

01:07:40.520 what are

01:07:41.640 they going

01:07:42.640 to say

01:07:43.240 what are

01:07:43.660 they going

01:07:43.840 to charge

01:07:44.240 them with

01:07:44.640 exactly

01:07:45.160 in addition

01:07:46.320 to the

01:07:46.620 existing

01:07:46.900 charges

01:07:47.260 what are

01:07:47.560 they going

01:07:47.800 to say

01:07:48.360 will any

01:07:49.520 of them

01:07:49.780 take the

01:07:50.100 witness

01:07:50.360 stand

01:07:50.860 yes

01:07:51.360 somebody's

01:07:53.320 going to

01:07:53.500 ask

01:07:53.640 how did

01:07:54.200 you know

01:07:54.440 the prime

01:07:54.740 minister

01:07:55.040 how will

01:07:56.140 their defense

01:07:56.760 lawyer argue

01:07:57.540 their case

01:07:58.160 yes

01:07:58.640 because one

01:08:00.260 of them

01:08:00.440 is 21

01:08:01.080 and

01:08:01.860 Keir Starmer

01:08:02.400 has been

01:08:02.820 prime minister

01:08:03.380 for a

01:08:03.860 year

01:08:04.180 and in

01:08:05.360 some of

01:08:05.640 these properties

01:08:06.060 he hasn't

01:08:06.620 been involved

01:08:07.280 for several

01:08:08.820 years

01:08:09.480 so if you

01:08:09.800 do the

01:08:10.260 maths

01:08:10.740 that one

01:08:12.160 year old

01:08:12.780 would have

01:08:13.020 been

01:08:13.320 17

01:08:14.500 yes

01:08:15.660 and so

01:08:16.440 there are

01:08:17.500 ridiculous

01:08:19.000 questions

01:08:19.800 around this

01:08:21.620 yes

01:08:21.960 that

01:08:22.680 why would

01:08:23.320 the prime

01:08:23.680 minister need

01:08:24.360 a 17

01:08:24.960 year old

01:08:25.360 model

01:08:25.840 if indeed

01:08:28.680 he knows

01:08:29.140 him

01:08:29.300 we don't

01:08:29.600 we don't

01:08:29.900 know

01:08:30.100 we don't

01:08:30.460 know

01:08:30.620 the media

01:08:31.840 should be

01:08:32.200 salivating

01:08:32.840 over this

01:08:33.320 the times

01:08:33.900 should be

01:08:34.240 all over

01:08:34.600 this

01:08:34.760 the telegraph

01:08:35.260 should be

01:08:35.560 all over

01:08:35.920 this

01:08:36.180 let alone

01:08:37.160 the sort

01:08:37.600 of

01:08:38.180 other

01:08:38.660 media

01:08:40.620 outlets

01:08:41.120 it is

01:08:41.960 bizarre

01:08:42.380 nothing

01:08:43.780 I presume

01:08:44.740 they haven't

01:08:45.180 covered it

01:08:45.640 as much

01:08:46.080 as we

01:08:46.380 haven't

01:08:46.640 covered

01:08:46.860 it

01:08:47.000 on the

01:08:47.240 basis

01:08:47.500 that we

01:08:47.840 don't

01:08:48.100 want

01:08:48.280 to be

01:08:48.520 arrested

01:08:48.900 because

01:08:49.600 Keir Starmer

01:08:50.140 basically just

01:08:50.660 arrests people

01:08:51.400 who he doesn't

01:08:51.880 like

01:08:52.180 and this

01:08:54.160 one

01:08:54.580 I mean

01:08:55.120 you don't

01:08:55.700 have to

01:08:56.100 think about

01:08:56.800 it too

01:08:57.180 long

01:08:57.400 before you

01:08:57.840 start

01:08:58.080 thinking

01:08:58.300 maybe

01:08:58.700 there's

01:08:58.960 something

01:08:59.140 a little

01:08:59.360 bit

01:08:59.480 suspicious

01:08:59.840 going on

01:09:00.440 here

01:09:00.740 and

01:09:01.360 it is

01:09:02.160 obviously

01:09:02.560 straight

01:09:02.960 off the

01:09:03.280 bat

01:09:03.580 odd

01:09:05.120 it's the

01:09:05.880 only way

01:09:06.240 of saying

01:09:06.900 it

01:09:07.540 it's just

01:09:08.160 it's just

01:09:08.600 it doesn't

01:09:10.400 add up

01:09:11.000 I was going

01:09:11.800 to disagree

01:09:12.180 with you

01:09:12.400 when you

01:09:12.620 said it's

01:09:12.920 obviously

01:09:13.220 straight

01:09:13.700 but you

01:09:14.240 went on

01:09:14.880 yes

01:09:15.380 anyway

01:09:17.660 so for

01:09:18.500 this reason

01:09:19.160 I've taken

01:09:19.540 a look

01:09:19.840 at the

01:09:20.060 betting odds

01:09:20.680 for the

01:09:21.760 year that

01:09:22.240 Keir Starmer

01:09:22.940 is replaced

01:09:23.480 now he's

01:09:24.660 still favourite

01:09:25.300 to leave

01:09:26.060 after the

01:09:26.720 next election

01:09:27.500 but the

01:09:28.620 odds are

01:09:28.900 narrowing of

01:09:29.460 him leaving

01:09:30.020 sooner

01:09:30.600 and for

01:09:31.740 that reason

01:09:32.400 we have to

01:09:33.140 think about

01:09:33.540 who is

01:09:34.620 going to

01:09:34.840 replace him

01:09:35.380 in his

01:09:35.980 bet fair

01:09:36.500 with their

01:09:36.840 betting odds

01:09:37.420 of who is

01:09:37.900 going to

01:09:38.480 replace him

01:09:39.240 it's fave

01:09:39.900 we're

01:09:40.440 streeting

01:09:40.940 oh my

01:09:41.240 god

01:09:41.600 imagine

01:09:42.360 prime minister

01:09:43.180 streeting

01:09:44.300 well

01:09:44.560 I thought

01:09:45.940 wouldn't it

01:09:46.300 be fun

01:09:46.740 to do some

01:09:48.420 top trumps

01:09:49.260 on the

01:09:50.360 possible

01:09:51.260 alternatives

01:09:52.060 so I

01:09:52.520 have put

01:09:52.880 together

01:09:53.320 this is

01:09:54.340 what I

01:09:54.500 spent my

01:09:54.800 morning

01:09:55.060 doing

01:09:55.360 Labour

01:09:55.760 top

01:09:56.120 trumps

01:09:56.700 and

01:09:58.980 you know

01:09:59.580 I'll whiz

01:10:00.200 through

01:10:00.400 these

01:10:00.640 I don't

01:10:00.880 want to

01:10:01.020 spend too

01:10:01.380 long on

01:10:01.700 it

01:10:01.800 but I'll

01:10:02.260 whiz

01:10:02.440 through

01:10:02.600 these

01:10:02.780 and you

01:10:03.060 can tell

01:10:03.480 me

01:10:03.700 if you

01:10:04.280 think

01:10:04.400 we're

01:10:04.580 on the

01:10:05.240 mark

01:10:05.500 here

01:10:05.680 so I've

01:10:06.500 done a

01:10:06.740 card

01:10:07.060 for Keir

01:10:07.740 Starmer

01:10:08.140 those numbers

01:10:08.620 out of

01:10:08.920 ten

01:10:09.260 out of

01:10:10.380 five

01:10:10.640 so he

01:10:12.460 is

01:10:12.600 experienced

01:10:13.160 because he

01:10:13.620 is head

01:10:14.060 of the

01:10:14.220 CPS

01:10:14.700 he's a

01:10:15.040 barrister

01:10:15.360 he's been

01:10:15.740 prime

01:10:15.960 minister

01:10:16.220 for a

01:10:16.500 while

01:10:16.640 so he's

01:10:16.900 got

01:10:17.000 experience

01:10:17.580 intellect

01:10:18.580 for

01:10:20.200 Labour

01:10:20.620 these

01:10:22.060 are all

01:10:22.320 for

01:10:22.820 Labour

01:10:23.180 you know

01:10:24.860 he's

01:10:25.480 reasonably

01:10:25.880 smart

01:10:26.260 he lacks

01:10:27.100 imagination

01:10:27.600 charisma

01:10:28.060 he doesn't

01:10:28.640 have any

01:10:29.040 none

01:10:29.660 probably

01:10:30.460 should have

01:10:30.820 given him

01:10:31.120 zero

01:10:31.520 I think

01:10:31.940 you should

01:10:32.140 have included

01:10:32.580 soul there

01:10:33.400 and then

01:10:33.720 give him

01:10:34.060 a negative

01:10:34.460 number

01:10:34.860 yes

01:10:35.960 could have

01:10:36.260 done that

01:10:36.600 leftism

01:10:37.340 well he's

01:10:38.000 a communist

01:10:38.420 so he's

01:10:39.520 actually quite

01:10:40.080 lefty

01:10:40.560 as they go

01:10:41.360 even within

01:10:42.420 Labour

01:10:42.780 so that

01:10:44.440 gives us

01:10:44.820 our

01:10:44.980 baseline

01:10:45.320 and so

01:10:46.040 this is

01:10:46.380 Wes

01:10:46.960 Streeting

01:10:47.580 the health

01:10:49.280 secretary

01:10:49.760 the problem

01:10:51.000 with Wes

01:10:51.620 is look at

01:10:52.840 that majority

01:10:53.420 500

01:10:54.000 right

01:10:54.580 oh yeah

01:10:55.200 oh yeah

01:10:55.940 that's tiny

01:10:57.140 yeah

01:10:57.900 that's really

01:10:58.500 small

01:10:58.780 he could lose

01:11:00.120 his seat

01:11:00.400 next time

01:11:00.840 easy peasy

01:11:01.460 yep

01:11:02.040 yes

01:11:02.620 almost certainly

01:11:03.660 he's going to

01:11:04.100 lose his seat

01:11:04.640 what is

01:11:05.100 his constituency

01:11:05.920 out of interest

01:11:06.640 oh

01:11:07.340 don't worry

01:11:08.340 about it

01:11:08.520 if you don't

01:11:08.720 have it

01:11:08.880 no I

01:11:09.140 can look

01:11:10.080 it up

01:11:10.440 I wonder

01:11:12.400 if it's

01:11:12.900 Ilford North

01:11:13.200 Ilford

01:11:14.100 yes

01:11:14.780 you know

01:11:15.460 that one

01:11:15.780 yeah

01:11:16.280 that's

01:11:17.900 that's

01:11:18.260 East London

01:11:18.720 Essex

01:11:19.140 that's

01:11:19.480 that's

01:11:19.740 my manor

01:11:20.520 oh right

01:11:21.020 okay

01:11:21.280 massive

01:11:21.680 Muslim

01:11:22.040 population

01:11:22.500 in other

01:11:22.780 words

01:11:22.900 or foreign

01:11:23.500 at least

01:11:24.040 foreign

01:11:24.320 might be

01:11:24.620 Indian

01:11:24.880 and Bangladeshi

01:11:25.540 but

01:11:25.800 right

01:11:26.060 yeah

01:11:26.480 that could

01:11:27.340 easily

01:11:28.060 flip to

01:11:28.860 so he's

01:11:29.400 almost 100%

01:11:30.280 going to be

01:11:30.640 replaced by

01:11:31.160 Islamist MP

01:11:32.180 next time

01:11:32.800 quite possibly

01:11:33.540 Ilford

01:11:33.980 right

01:11:34.560 okay

01:11:35.300 so

01:11:36.280 Ilford's

01:11:36.960 like Delhi

01:11:37.520 right

01:11:38.600 anyway

01:11:39.780 I've made

01:11:40.740 the point

01:11:41.020 I've made

01:11:41.880 the point

01:11:42.180 okay

01:11:42.560 subcontinent

01:11:44.780 he's

01:11:45.920 that bit

01:11:47.100 yeah

01:11:47.320 so he's

01:11:48.480 the favourite

01:11:49.400 but you know

01:11:50.040 I think we can

01:11:50.760 rule him out

01:11:51.220 even though he has

01:11:52.020 got a little bit

01:11:52.500 of charisma

01:11:52.860 and he can talk

01:11:53.340 to camera

01:11:53.860 and all that

01:11:55.400 kind of stuff

01:11:56.340 Yvette Cooper

01:11:57.960 very experienced

01:12:00.800 she's been a cabinet

01:12:01.580 minister under

01:12:02.220 Blair and Brown

01:12:02.980 she's been around

01:12:04.140 reasonably smart

01:12:06.220 as a labour

01:12:07.300 goes

01:12:07.700 not much

01:12:08.860 in the way

01:12:09.180 of charisma

01:12:09.560 this one

01:12:10.020 she's looking

01:12:11.720 more and more

01:12:12.160 demon like

01:12:12.860 yes

01:12:14.020 she's made

01:12:14.480 to red balls

01:12:14.960 isn't she

01:12:15.380 the inner demon

01:12:16.760 has become

01:12:17.380 more and more

01:12:17.860 visibly obvious

01:12:18.940 yes

01:12:19.580 yes

01:12:20.760 she's got a

01:12:21.700 decent majority

01:12:22.260 of 6,000

01:12:23.040 she could probably

01:12:24.120 survive

01:12:24.700 it's not great

01:12:26.060 6,000

01:12:26.700 back in the day

01:12:27.920 a small majority

01:12:29.140 was under 20,000

01:12:30.220 but these days

01:12:31.120 right

01:12:31.940 it's a bit more

01:12:32.680 competitive isn't it

01:12:33.520 yeah

01:12:34.000 that's what I would say

01:12:34.780 yeah 15-20 years

01:12:36.820 ago I'd say

01:12:37.200 6,000 is decent

01:12:38.280 but not now

01:12:39.420 you could flip

01:12:40.680 6,000

01:12:41.440 yes

01:12:42.100 6,000 could be flipped

01:12:43.000 well yeah but

01:12:43.360 not a lot of people

01:12:44.500 have much better

01:12:45.060 than that

01:12:45.320 I mean we'll see

01:12:45.940 how we go

01:12:46.340 on some of them

01:12:46.800 but she's got

01:12:47.640 fairly low odds

01:12:48.340 only you make

01:12:49.680 12 pounds

01:12:50.380 on a pound

01:12:51.080 bet on her

01:12:51.580 also I'd say

01:12:52.540 she's a big beast

01:12:54.240 like a party

01:12:55.000 grandee

01:12:55.600 that counts for a lot

01:12:56.500 right

01:12:56.820 so it's also

01:12:58.260 about

01:12:58.760 how much

01:13:00.840 what sort of

01:13:01.500 block of supporters

01:13:02.900 you can get

01:13:03.360 within the

01:13:03.960 parliamentary party

01:13:04.880 right

01:13:05.220 yes

01:13:05.560 so someone like

01:13:06.380 Yvette Cooper

01:13:07.040 I think

01:13:07.580 I've got no

01:13:08.040 special insight

01:13:09.000 but I think

01:13:09.480 someone like

01:13:09.840 Yvette Cooper

01:13:10.380 will be able to

01:13:12.220 get a bigger

01:13:13.040 number of supporters

01:13:14.940 within the party

01:13:15.780 than someone like

01:13:16.620 West Streeting

01:13:17.260 yes that's true

01:13:18.020 I would have thought

01:13:18.600 yeah I think she's

01:13:19.600 a credible candidate

01:13:20.280 on a number of

01:13:20.900 yeah

01:13:21.180 this is

01:13:23.300 Dr Nima Parvini's

01:13:25.240 top pick

01:13:25.860 Angela Rayner

01:13:27.320 okay

01:13:29.360 well

01:13:30.400 I mean

01:13:30.940 I've got a

01:13:31.760 broken

01:13:32.020 leftism a score

01:13:32.720 of five

01:13:33.340 a score

01:13:33.900 of four

01:13:34.300 she should be

01:13:35.100 on a scale

01:13:35.920 of five

01:13:36.260 she should be

01:13:36.620 a six

01:13:37.080 no

01:13:37.400 yeah

01:13:38.040 and you're

01:13:38.720 giving her

01:13:38.960 an intellect

01:13:39.320 of two

01:13:39.860 why are you

01:13:40.920 simping

01:13:41.300 she's a zero

01:13:45.160 obviously

01:13:45.620 she's a full

01:13:46.720 blown stupid

01:13:47.460 person right

01:13:48.200 yeah

01:13:48.520 I mean

01:13:48.700 she's common

01:13:50.000 so therefore

01:13:50.880 she talks

01:13:51.340 I'm common

01:13:52.800 us labors

01:13:53.720 our care

01:13:54.840 that kind

01:13:55.360 of stuff

01:13:55.720 like her

01:13:57.340 her political

01:13:58.520 acumen

01:13:59.080 her ability

01:13:59.600 to debate

01:14:00.220 all those

01:14:00.660 sorts of

01:14:00.920 things

01:14:01.100 are non-existent

01:14:02.240 I'll tell you

01:14:02.720 why I gave her

01:14:03.120 a two

01:14:03.480 is because

01:14:04.460 she's smart

01:14:05.880 she's not one

01:14:06.800 of those stupid

01:14:07.320 people who

01:14:07.840 thinks she's

01:14:08.300 clever

01:14:08.520 she's one

01:14:09.460 of those stupid

01:14:09.900 people who

01:14:10.320 realises she's

01:14:11.040 stupid and

01:14:11.620 knows when to

01:14:12.300 shut up

01:14:12.780 and she has

01:14:13.340 been doing

01:14:13.740 that

01:14:13.880 and that was

01:14:14.800 basically

01:14:15.200 Parvini's

01:14:16.240 argument

01:14:16.540 is that

01:14:17.060 she's like

01:14:18.020 now the

01:14:18.340 creature of

01:14:18.700 the dark

01:14:19.040 lord

01:14:19.360 so you

01:14:21.220 know

01:14:21.320 she's kind

01:14:21.900 of falling

01:14:22.180 into line

01:14:22.600 with that

01:14:22.820 she has

01:14:23.860 got charisma

01:14:24.420 though

01:14:25.720 if you're

01:14:27.780 into that

01:14:28.080 kind of

01:14:28.340 stuff

01:14:28.520 if you're

01:14:30.920 willing

01:14:31.240 yes

01:14:31.740 if you're

01:14:32.660 working class

01:14:33.580 you think

01:14:33.920 she's a

01:14:34.320 proper

01:14:35.140 I don't

01:14:36.080 find her

01:14:36.380 charismatic

01:14:36.660 at all

01:14:37.040 but I

01:14:37.340 get what

01:14:37.600 you mean

01:14:37.820 some people

01:14:38.340 will

01:14:38.600 yes

01:14:38.820 some people

01:14:39.320 will

01:14:39.580 apparently

01:14:39.940 this played

01:14:40.440 well

01:14:40.620 her going

01:14:41.100 to Ibiza

01:14:41.700 and throwing

01:14:42.380 up a Roman

01:14:42.940 to Alfvito

01:14:43.480 and Rouse

01:14:44.260 or whatever

01:14:44.680 it was

01:14:45.360 they were

01:14:45.600 playing

01:14:45.920 Auslander

01:14:46.520 Rouse

01:14:47.580 I don't

01:14:49.240 think

01:14:49.420 it was

01:14:49.640 but anyway

01:14:50.380 whatever track

01:14:51.700 they were

01:14:52.080 playing

01:14:52.460 I thought

01:14:52.920 this was one

01:14:53.320 of the most

01:14:53.600 cringeworthy

01:14:54.440 things ever

01:14:55.220 I found

01:14:55.760 that like

01:14:56.160 you're really

01:14:56.920 throwing your

01:14:57.640 political

01:14:58.180 dignity

01:15:00.160 down the

01:15:00.740 toilet

01:15:01.040 it worked

01:15:01.820 for the

01:15:02.080 Finnish

01:15:02.300 prime

01:15:02.540 minister

01:15:02.760 for a

01:15:03.140 while

01:15:03.380 until it

01:15:03.880 stopped

01:15:04.200 until it

01:15:05.060 doesn't

01:15:05.620 oh she was

01:15:06.000 tasty

01:15:06.260 wasn't she

01:15:06.780 was it

01:15:07.520 the Finnish

01:15:07.780 yes

01:15:08.120 again the

01:15:08.760 majority

01:15:09.060 not that

01:15:09.980 gigantic

01:15:10.600 and she's

01:15:11.480 in an

01:15:11.780 Islamist

01:15:12.220 area as

01:15:12.660 well isn't

01:15:12.960 she

01:15:13.080 yeah

01:15:13.280 actually no

01:15:14.380 she was

01:15:14.780 the one

01:15:15.080 who was

01:15:15.380 begging

01:15:15.980 for

01:15:16.380 Pakistanis

01:15:17.220 for their

01:15:18.000 votes

01:15:18.280 yes

01:15:18.540 and

01:15:19.160 actually

01:15:19.540 yeah

01:15:20.140 she might

01:15:20.860 lose it

01:15:21.180 as well

01:15:21.380 and she's

01:15:21.640 deputy

01:15:21.920 prime

01:15:22.220 minister

01:15:22.480 so

01:15:22.760 she's

01:15:23.420 credible

01:15:25.080 she's got

01:15:25.480 low odds

01:15:25.980 Andy

01:15:27.800 Burden

01:15:28.080 he's

01:15:29.440 not a

01:15:30.080 he's not

01:15:31.580 an MP

01:15:31.980 he's the

01:15:32.580 mayor of

01:15:33.020 Manchester

01:15:33.520 and he's

01:15:34.100 doing pretty

01:15:34.600 well in

01:15:35.020 that

01:15:35.260 so they

01:15:36.160 need to

01:15:36.580 shoehorn

01:15:37.320 into a

01:15:37.840 seat

01:15:38.240 but he's

01:15:40.140 got executive

01:15:40.660 experience

01:15:41.240 he's reasonably

01:15:42.220 smart as

01:15:42.920 a socialist

01:15:43.540 goes

01:15:43.940 he's got

01:15:44.380 around for

01:15:44.780 a long

01:15:45.020 time

01:15:45.420 yeah

01:15:45.700 he's got

01:15:46.040 he's got

01:15:46.400 some

01:15:46.660 I wouldn't

01:15:47.300 say

01:15:47.500 maybe

01:15:48.220 I'm being

01:15:49.200 a bit

01:15:49.440 generous

01:15:49.760 on charisma

01:15:50.220 but he

01:15:50.580 could talk

01:15:50.920 to camera

01:15:51.340 he could

01:15:51.660 do the

01:15:52.040 thing

01:15:52.440 you know

01:15:52.780 he could

01:15:52.980 do the

01:15:53.260 he won't

01:15:53.960 ever come

01:15:54.300 across as

01:15:54.680 charismatic

01:15:55.140 charismatic

01:15:55.580 but he

01:15:56.060 could do

01:15:56.300 the serious

01:15:56.760 statesman

01:15:57.240 type stuff

01:15:57.840 he could

01:15:58.380 do the

01:15:58.660 Teflon

01:15:59.180 Dave

01:15:59.500 Dave Cameron

01:16:00.320 thing

01:16:01.200 of appearing

01:16:02.360 bulletproof

01:16:03.780 yes

01:16:04.360 yeah

01:16:04.860 so I think

01:16:05.680 he's a

01:16:06.240 credible

01:16:06.800 candidate

01:16:07.340 who else

01:16:08.400 I've got

01:16:08.560 Rachel Reeves

01:16:09.760 the woman

01:16:10.460 the woman

01:16:11.960 who wrecked

01:16:12.460 the British

01:16:12.760 economy

01:16:13.160 single-handedly

01:16:14.380 I mean

01:16:14.880 she's wildly

01:16:16.140 out of her

01:16:16.700 depth

01:16:16.900 she should

01:16:17.240 be running

01:16:17.560 the finances

01:16:18.220 for a bathroom

01:16:18.900 fitters

01:16:19.440 in Dagenham

01:16:20.900 or something

01:16:21.420 not

01:16:21.920 Chancellor

01:16:23.400 of the

01:16:23.720 Exchequer

01:16:24.240 yeah

01:16:25.080 although

01:16:25.720 decent

01:16:26.020 majority

01:16:26.520 there

01:16:26.840 the 12,000

01:16:27.780 she'll probably

01:16:28.560 keep her seat

01:16:29.200 next time

01:16:29.800 probably

01:16:30.160 you would have

01:16:30.660 thought

01:16:30.900 if they get

01:16:32.000 stuck with her

01:16:32.480 it would be

01:16:32.720 hilarious

01:16:33.120 if sort of

01:16:34.300 of all of the

01:16:34.780 big names

01:16:35.240 that Labour

01:16:35.660 have

01:16:36.060 she ends up

01:16:37.240 being the one

01:16:37.840 that sort of

01:16:38.420 survives

01:16:39.020 yes

01:16:39.640 it would be

01:16:40.200 quite funny

01:16:40.620 there are some

01:16:41.380 even funnier

01:16:42.160 but I do

01:16:42.820 take your point

01:16:43.340 yeah

01:16:43.520 I feel like

01:16:44.300 you're being

01:16:44.740 generous with

01:16:45.520 the charisma

01:16:45.940 again

01:16:46.380 I don't see

01:16:49.500 again she's like

01:16:51.120 an annoying

01:16:51.740 mid-level

01:16:52.320 HR

01:16:52.880 Karen

01:16:53.360 they are

01:16:54.020 scaled for

01:16:55.680 Labour

01:16:56.040 okay

01:16:56.440 all right

01:16:56.820 fair enough

01:16:57.500 I didn't know

01:17:01.480 who this woman

01:17:01.920 was

01:17:02.140 who the fuck

01:17:03.440 is that guy

01:17:04.240 who is that

01:17:05.940 I don't know

01:17:06.420 I honestly don't

01:17:06.900 know

01:17:07.140 education

01:17:07.960 she's got

01:17:10.540 reasonably low

01:17:11.400 odds

01:17:11.620 30 to 1

01:17:12.320 I'm not sure

01:17:12.820 I've ever

01:17:13.380 heard of her

01:17:14.120 before

01:17:14.440 that's telling

01:17:15.560 doesn't she

01:17:16.220 have something

01:17:16.780 to do with

01:17:17.180 the women's

01:17:17.540 portfolio as

01:17:18.160 well

01:17:18.440 oh probably

01:17:19.060 oh wait

01:17:19.900 I have

01:17:20.320 didn't she

01:17:21.880 get struck

01:17:22.900 by a very

01:17:23.580 unfortunate case

01:17:24.460 of blindness

01:17:25.060 and deafness

01:17:25.720 that led her

01:17:26.200 to completely

01:17:26.720 not hearing

01:17:27.180 about the

01:17:27.560 Pakistani

01:17:27.940 rape gang

01:17:28.460 oh you

01:17:29.100 bought that

01:17:29.420 one

01:17:29.680 yeah

01:17:29.880 is that not

01:17:31.240 her

01:17:31.500 I have seen

01:17:32.160 her come up

01:17:32.600 before a couple

01:17:33.160 of times

01:17:33.620 yeah she is

01:17:34.540 also again

01:17:35.340 sort of an

01:17:35.840 intellect and

01:17:36.500 charisma

01:17:36.900 vacuum type

01:17:37.840 person

01:17:38.520 just obviously

01:17:38.980 a career

01:17:39.560 party person

01:17:40.520 and nothing

01:17:41.040 else

01:17:41.500 right

01:17:42.240 but she has

01:17:44.400 got name

01:17:44.800 recognition

01:17:45.300 right

01:17:45.620 no one

01:17:45.980 most people

01:17:46.580 I didn't know

01:17:47.680 who she was

01:17:48.100 right

01:17:48.380 so and I

01:17:49.500 and I

01:17:49.800 followed politics

01:17:50.600 quite closely

01:17:51.320 so yeah

01:17:51.780 so there was

01:17:52.660 that

01:17:52.820 here was

01:17:53.680 Darren Jones

01:17:55.640 he's got

01:17:57.120 reasonable odds

01:17:57.780 I mean not

01:17:58.140 these are not

01:17:58.920 the tightest

01:17:59.440 but they're

01:17:59.780 you know

01:17:59.960 they're contenders

01:18:01.000 and he's

01:18:01.660 apparently

01:18:02.020 chief secretary

01:18:03.140 to the treasury

01:18:03.740 which I think

01:18:04.140 is what

01:18:04.520 Rishi Sunak

01:18:05.540 was before

01:18:06.060 being propelled

01:18:06.740 to

01:18:07.180 chancellor

01:18:08.200 so it's a

01:18:10.160 route for

01:18:10.640 people that

01:18:11.140 they like

01:18:11.640 I've seen

01:18:12.080 him talking

01:18:12.560 on TV

01:18:13.060 before

01:18:13.440 and he's

01:18:14.000 it's that

01:18:15.960 classic

01:18:16.520 professional

01:18:17.480 politician

01:18:17.980 robot thing

01:18:18.980 of tying the

01:18:19.560 party line

01:18:20.180 never answering

01:18:21.120 a question

01:18:21.560 straight

01:18:21.860 just answering

01:18:22.320 a different

01:18:22.680 question

01:18:23.260 just all that

01:18:24.360 nonsense

01:18:24.620 just the same

01:18:25.220 old

01:18:25.500 very much in

01:18:25.880 the mould

01:18:26.300 then

01:18:26.600 just yeah

01:18:27.040 just the same

01:18:28.140 old same

01:18:28.740 old crap

01:18:29.740 right

01:18:30.880 but apparently

01:18:32.160 he's got a

01:18:32.480 tech background

01:18:32.980 he was like

01:18:33.600 the lawyer for

01:18:34.240 BT or something

01:18:35.200 but

01:18:35.480 okay

01:18:35.760 great

01:18:36.340 I mean

01:18:36.920 they're all

01:18:37.200 lawyers

01:18:37.620 they're all

01:18:38.060 either trade

01:18:38.540 unionists

01:18:39.080 or lawyers

01:18:39.760 Lisa Nandy

01:18:41.380 oh god

01:18:42.080 she

01:18:43.300 only just

01:18:44.020 eaten

01:18:44.280 don't

01:18:45.040 well she

01:18:45.440 looks like

01:18:45.840 the sort

01:18:46.160 of woman

01:18:46.500 who would

01:18:46.800 cause a scene

01:18:47.420 in a restaurant

01:18:48.020 I mean I

01:18:48.460 wouldn't want

01:18:48.860 I wouldn't

01:18:50.160 want to be

01:18:50.460 sat next to

01:18:51.020 her table

01:18:51.580 because she's

01:18:52.180 going to pick

01:18:52.540 a fight

01:18:52.920 with somebody

01:18:53.480 or the waiter

01:18:53.960 or something

01:18:54.480 I don't know

01:18:54.880 maybe I'm

01:18:55.240 being unkind

01:18:55.680 I honestly

01:18:56.120 honestly won't

01:18:57.160 go into any

01:18:57.620 detail about

01:18:58.240 my feelings

01:18:58.660 about Lisa

01:18:59.120 and Andy

01:18:59.460 suffice to

01:19:00.060 say

01:19:00.360 I find a

01:19:02.240 despicable

01:19:02.720 a despicable

01:19:03.280 person

01:19:03.740 right

01:19:04.240 on many

01:19:05.320 many levels

01:19:05.980 an actual

01:19:06.960 fifth columnist

01:19:07.680 type

01:19:08.140 right

01:19:08.640 yes fair

01:19:10.480 enough

01:19:10.700 David Lammy

01:19:13.360 is the best

01:19:16.260 outcome not

01:19:17.160 a David Lammy

01:19:17.980 versus

01:19:18.300 Kemi

01:19:18.620 Baden

01:19:19.040 or

01:19:19.260 general

01:19:20.480 election

01:19:20.880 it would be

01:19:21.260 the funniest

01:19:22.120 thing to

01:19:22.960 happen

01:19:23.400 yes

01:19:23.960 it would be

01:19:25.520 hilarious

01:19:26.180 and I would

01:19:27.560 pay to see

01:19:28.320 that debate

01:19:28.840 I don't care

01:19:30.140 what I would

01:19:30.900 buy tickets

01:19:31.580 for that

01:19:31.940 debate

01:19:32.340 I would do

01:19:35.420 anything to see

01:19:35.960 that debate

01:19:36.320 it would be

01:19:36.640 the funniest

01:19:37.160 thing

01:19:37.580 I don't think

01:19:39.320 any of them

01:19:40.080 could form

01:19:40.920 a cogent

01:19:41.580 thought and

01:19:42.140 run with it

01:19:42.700 I remember

01:19:43.580 when David

01:19:44.000 Lammy

01:19:44.400 thought that

01:19:44.940 the black

01:19:45.380 smoke coming

01:19:46.020 out of the

01:19:46.340 Vatican

01:19:46.680 was racist

01:19:48.480 yeah

01:19:49.000 yeah

01:19:49.820 yeah

01:19:50.580 how could

01:19:51.260 you forget

01:19:51.660 you also went

01:19:52.440 on Celebrity

01:19:53.080 Mastermind

01:19:53.720 and got the

01:19:54.100 lowest score

01:19:54.920 that had ever

01:19:55.860 been recorded

01:19:56.540 some of the

01:19:57.740 answers on that

01:19:58.400 anyone look it

01:19:59.000 up

01:19:59.460 on his general

01:20:00.460 knowledge

01:20:00.920 it was like

01:20:02.420 a comedy

01:20:02.840 sketch

01:20:03.280 it really

01:20:04.580 was

01:20:04.860 it really

01:20:05.560 was

01:20:05.780 it was

01:20:06.040 sort of

01:20:06.440 beyond

01:20:06.820 embarrassing

01:20:07.340 if the

01:20:08.120 tactic of

01:20:08.840 the globalists

01:20:09.640 or whoever

01:20:10.460 you want to

01:20:11.080 say

01:20:11.340 the cabal

01:20:12.120 that's trying

01:20:12.480 to destroy

01:20:12.880 the west

01:20:13.360 if their

01:20:14.360 strategy

01:20:14.980 really is

01:20:15.900 one of

01:20:16.340 humiliation

01:20:18.280 to humiliate

01:20:19.920 us

01:20:20.260 by putting

01:20:21.520 someone like

01:20:22.520 a dementia

01:20:23.660 riddled

01:20:24.140 Biden in

01:20:24.780 charge

01:20:25.080 to give

01:20:25.880 us

01:20:26.040 Lammy

01:20:26.380 to force

01:20:26.780 Lammy

01:20:27.160 on us

01:20:27.620 I would

01:20:28.900 really buy

01:20:29.540 that more

01:20:30.220 that it is

01:20:30.800 a strategy

01:20:31.480 of humiliation

01:20:32.260 let's talk

01:20:33.180 about Rainer

01:20:33.800 being just a

01:20:34.760 straight up

01:20:35.100 stupid person

01:20:35.720 Lammy is

01:20:36.860 oh he's

01:20:37.840 extra stupid

01:20:38.500 super low

01:20:41.200 IQ

01:20:41.460 no general

01:20:42.300 knowledge

01:20:42.620 of the

01:20:42.900 world

01:20:43.220 it's

01:20:43.800 embarrassing

01:20:44.140 it's

01:20:44.720 humiliating

01:20:45.240 enough

01:20:45.580 that he's

01:20:46.060 the head

01:20:46.380 of the

01:20:46.640 FCO

01:20:47.120 to make

01:20:48.420 him

01:20:48.600 prime

01:20:48.840 minister

01:20:49.320 a few

01:20:50.300 years ago

01:20:50.840 he was

01:20:51.360 going on

01:20:52.040 about how

01:20:52.540 there were

01:20:52.840 no police

01:20:53.340 officers

01:20:53.780 on the

01:20:54.820 street

01:20:55.100 which was

01:20:56.140 a legitimate

01:20:56.520 complaint

01:20:57.040 and there

01:20:57.440 was one

01:20:57.740 behind him

01:20:58.260 who was

01:21:00.040 actually not

01:21:00.620 there for

01:21:01.000 him

01:21:01.180 he was

01:21:01.520 sort of

01:21:01.800 doing

01:21:02.120 his

01:21:02.440 beat

01:21:03.380 and

01:21:04.720 yes

01:21:06.000 this guy

01:21:06.640 is just

01:21:07.000 unfortunate

01:21:07.480 just one

01:21:08.900 last time

01:21:09.260 just say

01:21:09.580 go out

01:21:10.080 there

01:21:10.220 and google

01:21:10.800 youtube

01:21:11.540 him on

01:21:12.560 celebrity

01:21:13.040 mastermind

01:21:13.640 you will

01:21:14.220 laugh your

01:21:14.900 socks on

01:21:15.380 it is quite

01:21:15.940 funny

01:21:16.280 but right

01:21:17.380 he's got

01:21:18.000 reasonable odds

01:21:18.920 and he's got

01:21:19.440 a decent

01:21:19.760 majority

01:21:20.120 so he'd be

01:21:20.880 sticking around

01:21:21.480 so he is

01:21:22.280 actually a

01:21:22.860 proper contender

01:21:23.700 Shabahan

01:21:27.120 Mahoumad

01:21:29.040 you might

01:21:30.060 have a

01:21:30.240 Shabahan

01:21:30.940 Mahmood

01:21:31.500 right

01:21:32.100 yes

01:21:32.480 she was

01:21:34.500 an unknown

01:21:34.940 until this

01:21:35.540 government

01:21:35.840 came in

01:21:36.360 really

01:21:36.680 she became

01:21:39.120 the justice

01:21:39.460 secretary

01:21:39.900 and is

01:21:41.500 responsible

01:21:42.100 for things

01:21:42.960 like

01:21:43.380 well

01:21:43.960 all of the

01:21:44.400 things that

01:21:44.680 you see

01:21:44.980 that are

01:21:45.360 going on

01:21:45.780 with the

01:21:45.980 justice

01:21:46.160 system

01:21:46.540 that falls

01:21:47.880 under her

01:21:48.340 remit

01:21:48.740 and that

01:21:49.420 of nice

01:21:49.860 mr.

01:21:50.160 ag

01:21:50.400 harmer

01:21:51.240 so

01:21:51.760 the fallout

01:21:52.660 from the

01:21:53.220 south port

01:21:53.680 stuff

01:21:54.060 yeah

01:21:54.660 the groom

01:21:55.340 gang's

01:21:56.880 inquiry

01:21:57.240 not happening

01:21:57.840 and that

01:21:58.040 would be

01:21:58.220 yes

01:21:58.740 also she

01:21:59.700 was the

01:22:00.060 first

01:22:00.400 female

01:22:01.220 muslim

01:22:01.580 mp

01:22:01.860 apparently

01:22:02.260 interesting

01:22:04.000 again the

01:22:04.940 majority

01:22:05.320 not particularly

01:22:06.820 healthy

01:22:07.200 no

01:22:07.500 not a good

01:22:08.380 majority

01:22:08.700 no great

01:22:09.880 charisma

01:22:10.260 65 to 1

01:22:12.040 odds

01:22:12.360 that's sort

01:22:12.800 of

01:22:13.120 this person

01:22:14.860 is apparently

01:22:15.240 this one

01:22:16.300 surprised me

01:22:16.840 because

01:22:17.500 she hasn't even

01:22:18.480 got the whip

01:22:18.940 I think she did

01:22:21.780 yeah

01:22:22.020 I might be

01:22:23.100 wrong

01:22:23.340 but I thought

01:22:24.200 right in day

01:22:24.940 one

01:22:25.400 Starmer

01:22:26.240 took

01:22:26.540 well first week

01:22:27.220 Starmer took it

01:22:27.860 away from a

01:22:28.300 bunch of

01:22:28.580 people

01:22:28.900 I think

01:22:29.660 I think

01:22:30.220 she was

01:22:30.520 one of

01:22:30.780 them

01:22:30.860 for a long

01:22:31.360 long time

01:22:32.000 I thought

01:22:32.520 that she

01:22:32.800 was a

01:22:33.060 parody

01:22:33.360 account

01:22:33.880 there is

01:22:35.300 a Twitter

01:22:36.080 account

01:22:36.620 which basically

01:22:37.740 uses a

01:22:38.300 porn star's

01:22:39.040 face

01:22:39.540 and gives

01:22:40.260 it an

01:22:40.500 MP

01:22:40.800 and says

01:22:41.640 MP

01:22:42.000 after the

01:22:42.620 name

01:22:42.880 parody

01:22:43.480 account

01:22:44.040 and I

01:22:44.900 just

01:22:45.060 mentally

01:22:45.540 mixed up

01:22:46.180 Zara

01:22:46.600 Sultana

01:22:47.240 with that

01:22:47.780 account

01:22:48.280 for ages

01:22:49.280 and at

01:22:49.720 some point

01:22:50.120 I realised

01:22:50.520 oh no

01:22:50.820 actually

01:22:51.040 that's a

01:22:51.340 real MP

01:22:51.760 but she

01:22:52.720 has a

01:22:53.060 very strong

01:22:53.680 social media

01:22:54.360 presence

01:22:54.820 and the

01:22:55.480 young

01:22:55.720 leftists

01:22:56.140 love her

01:22:56.700 so she

01:22:57.520 scores

01:22:57.880 well on

01:22:58.360 charisma

01:22:58.720 and leftism

01:22:59.580 but I

01:23:01.240 didn't know

01:23:01.460 she'd lost

01:23:01.760 the whip

01:23:02.180 so

01:23:02.500 I might

01:23:03.160 be wrong

01:23:03.560 but yeah

01:23:05.100 the charisma

01:23:05.620 thing

01:23:05.980 I mean

01:23:06.260 maybe

01:23:06.600 even

01:23:07.400 geared

01:23:08.220 towards

01:23:08.980 labour

01:23:09.680 people

01:23:10.100 and even

01:23:10.840 in other

01:23:11.380 people's

01:23:11.820 eyes

01:23:12.220 still I

01:23:13.280 don't find

01:23:13.700 her

01:23:13.960 she's

01:23:14.840 really

01:23:15.380 obnoxious

01:23:16.120 she's

01:23:17.320 really

01:23:17.720 really

01:23:17.980 obnoxious

01:23:18.540 and I

01:23:19.380 don't

01:23:19.680 suggest

01:23:19.980 that she

01:23:20.260 does her

01:23:20.560 hair

01:23:20.720 like that

01:23:21.040 again

01:23:21.340 because

01:23:21.580 she's

01:23:21.760 done

01:23:21.880 that

01:23:22.000 thing

01:23:22.140 where

01:23:22.260 she's

01:23:22.460 pulled

01:23:22.640 her

01:23:22.800 ponytail

01:23:23.180 so tight

01:23:23.740 that she

01:23:24.600 looks

01:23:24.920 permanently

01:23:25.380 surprised

01:23:25.980 I mean

01:23:26.840 she's

01:23:26.980 got the

01:23:27.200 opposite

01:23:27.460 if I've

01:23:27.800 got a

01:23:27.980 receding

01:23:28.400 hairline

01:23:28.700 she's

01:23:28.900 got a

01:23:29.160 preceding

01:23:30.200 a

01:23:31.120 preceder

01:23:32.160 yes

01:23:32.740 very

01:23:33.900 little

01:23:34.160 room

01:23:34.460 left

01:23:34.760 for the

01:23:35.320 face

01:23:35.700 on the

01:23:36.540 head

01:23:36.880 again

01:23:37.960 a fifth

01:23:38.400 columnist

01:23:38.940 straight up

01:23:39.660 straight up

01:23:40.540 enemy of

01:23:41.240 the people

01:23:42.020 enemy of

01:23:42.380 the state

01:23:42.760 essentially

01:23:43.320 I would

01:23:43.840 argue

01:23:44.160 disgusting

01:23:45.340 person

01:23:45.780 but she

01:23:46.140 makes the

01:23:46.500 betfair list

01:23:47.120 and it's

01:23:47.640 not wild

01:23:48.400 odds

01:23:48.680 130

01:23:49.240 I mean

01:23:49.600 it's

01:23:50.680 up there

01:23:51.380 but are

01:23:51.620 they odds

01:23:52.160 from the

01:23:52.700 betting site

01:23:53.180 ones

01:23:53.600 you've

01:23:54.200 made up

01:23:55.800 no

01:23:56.160 here we

01:23:57.020 go

01:23:57.180 it is

01:23:57.600 from

01:23:57.920 betfair

01:23:58.260 I just

01:24:00.080 took the

01:24:00.680 whatever's

01:24:02.020 in that

01:24:02.240 column

01:24:02.540 fair enough

01:24:03.120 so someone

01:24:05.260 seriously has

01:24:05.960 looked at it

01:24:06.480 and tried to

01:24:06.980 calculate

01:24:07.320 the okay

01:24:07.820 oh no

01:24:08.220 no

01:24:08.380 that would be

01:24:10.300 the arbitrage

01:24:11.520 between

01:24:11.880 backers and

01:24:12.760 layers

01:24:13.020 the people

01:24:14.760 backing it

01:24:15.260 and laying

01:24:15.580 it

01:24:15.780 so

01:24:15.980 that would

01:24:17.660 just be

01:24:17.880 the arbitrage

01:24:18.300 out between

01:24:18.640 them

01:24:18.860 Jess Phillips

01:24:21.080 now this

01:24:21.660 would be

01:24:21.900 the funniest

01:24:22.400 outcome

01:24:22.880 because Carl

01:24:23.740 would have

01:24:24.060 to move

01:24:24.500 to somewhere

01:24:24.940 without an

01:24:25.420 extradition

01:24:25.880 treaty

01:24:26.260 you know

01:24:28.920 Carl and

01:24:29.320 have a bit

01:24:29.740 of background

01:24:30.220 I didn't

01:24:30.860 know that

01:24:31.260 Carl moves

01:24:31.980 to Buenos

01:24:32.520 Aires

01:24:32.880 they used

01:24:35.420 to date

01:24:35.740 no not

01:24:36.460 really

01:24:36.660 it was

01:24:36.820 something

01:24:36.980 else

01:24:37.260 the point

01:24:38.980 is

01:24:39.340 if she

01:24:40.440 comes in

01:24:41.120 Carl has

01:24:41.960 to leave

01:24:42.280 she's not

01:24:42.720 going to

01:24:42.920 make it

01:24:43.420 she's totally

01:24:44.280 losing her

01:24:44.860 seat next

01:24:45.160 time

01:24:45.320 I thought

01:24:46.300 Emma

01:24:46.480 was even

01:24:46.900 smaller than

01:24:47.300 that but

01:24:47.620 she's

01:24:48.680 going to

01:24:49.280 lose her

01:24:49.580 seat next

01:24:49.920 time

01:24:50.160 unless the

01:24:51.860 party move

01:24:52.480 her around

01:24:53.100 can they

01:24:53.600 just do

01:24:54.000 that

01:24:54.260 they can

01:24:54.680 I think

01:24:55.040 they can

01:24:55.380 do whatever

01:24:56.520 they want

01:24:56.920 in turn

01:24:57.220 they allocate

01:24:58.180 the seating

01:24:58.680 based on

01:24:59.400 whether or not

01:25:00.140 central headquarters

01:25:01.140 likes you

01:25:01.740 you do get

01:25:03.400 people parachuted

01:25:04.240 into somewhere

01:25:04.980 your stormer

01:25:05.660 ended up

01:25:06.000 parachuting

01:25:06.360 into Holborn

01:25:06.840 right

01:25:07.100 there's more

01:25:10.600 of a bias

01:25:11.180 against doing

01:25:11.800 it when

01:25:12.200 you've already

01:25:12.720 got a seat

01:25:13.440 they do

01:25:14.440 sometimes do

01:25:15.260 it

01:25:15.440 charisma

01:25:16.180 four out

01:25:16.880 of five

01:25:17.520 are you sure

01:25:18.020 who thinks

01:25:20.140 that

01:25:20.440 socialist

01:25:21.280 this is

01:25:21.900 scaled for

01:25:22.400 labour

01:25:22.620 okay

01:25:23.600 let's run

01:25:25.720 with it

01:25:25.960 let's run

01:25:26.380 with it

01:25:26.600 fair enough

01:25:27.000 this is

01:25:28.160 this is a

01:25:28.580 probably more

01:25:29.020 credible

01:25:29.340 candidate

01:25:29.740 actually

01:25:30.240 Sadiq Khan

01:25:32.400 he's not

01:25:32.960 he's the

01:25:33.500 mayor of

01:25:33.760 London

01:25:33.960 so he's

01:25:34.360 not an

01:25:34.620 MP

01:25:34.880 but again

01:25:35.700 they could

01:25:35.960 just

01:25:36.120 parachute

01:25:36.420 him

01:25:36.680 into a

01:25:36.980 safe

01:25:37.160 seat

01:25:37.400 short

01:25:37.660 notice

01:25:37.980 loads

01:25:38.880 of

01:25:39.020 experience

01:25:39.480 he's

01:25:39.840 actually

01:25:40.100 quite

01:25:40.400 smart

01:25:40.740 I mean

01:25:41.000 he's

01:25:41.160 evil

01:25:41.420 and he

01:25:41.740 represents

01:25:42.240 the wrong

01:25:42.940 people

01:25:43.220 and all

01:25:43.400 that

01:25:43.500 kind

01:25:43.660 of

01:25:43.740 stuff

01:25:43.920 and he's

01:25:44.480 a fifth

01:25:44.780 columnist

01:25:45.320 and he's

01:25:45.860 all about

01:25:46.360 complete

01:25:47.640 demographic

01:25:48.140 replacement

01:25:48.620 but he

01:25:49.000 is smart

01:25:49.460 and therefore

01:25:49.960 he's

01:25:50.380 dangerous

01:25:50.780 his charisma

01:25:52.440 is strong

01:25:53.000 you know

01:25:54.460 again

01:25:54.800 for

01:25:55.160 socialists

01:25:55.920 he can do

01:25:56.660 very well

01:25:57.420 on camera

01:25:57.820 he's very

01:25:58.300 good on

01:25:58.740 interviews

01:25:59.200 and stuff

01:25:59.620 like that

01:26:00.020 he's pretty

01:26:01.840 leftist

01:26:02.300 the reason

01:26:02.680 I only put

01:26:03.080 him up to

01:26:03.380 three is

01:26:03.840 because actually

01:26:04.400 at some

01:26:05.260 point his

01:26:05.640 leftism

01:26:06.060 veers into

01:26:06.880 tribalism

01:26:08.280 but not for

01:26:08.980 the British

01:26:09.340 tribe

01:26:09.760 yes of

01:26:10.240 course

01:26:10.400 so

01:26:10.860 his socialism

01:26:12.540 is all

01:26:13.020 just a

01:26:13.400 front for

01:26:14.180 it really

01:26:14.900 is

01:26:15.100 tribalism

01:26:15.780 it very

01:26:16.380 obviously

01:26:16.660 is

01:26:16.820 if you

01:26:17.060 look at

01:26:17.740 the

01:26:18.040 ex-account

01:26:18.860 of

01:26:19.020 Muslim

01:26:19.260 labour

01:26:19.520 you'll

01:26:20.660 see a

01:26:21.060 near

01:26:21.220 perfect

01:26:21.740 overlap

01:26:24.240 between

01:26:25.360 the most

01:26:25.920 leftist

01:26:26.440 positions

01:26:26.940 and the

01:26:27.480 most

01:26:27.680 pro-Islamist

01:26:28.360 positions

01:26:28.720 and they

01:26:29.360 sort of

01:26:29.880 use that

01:26:31.240 very

01:26:31.720 very

01:26:32.020 effectively

01:26:32.540 and he's

01:26:33.480 the guy

01:26:34.420 who's

01:26:34.660 mastered

01:26:34.960 that game

01:26:35.460 I think

01:26:37.160 he is

01:26:37.580 probably

01:26:37.860 one of

01:26:38.160 the strongest

01:26:38.580 most credible

01:26:39.120 candidates

01:26:39.500 so I

01:26:39.820 think his

01:26:40.120 odds are

01:26:40.360 a bit

01:26:40.500 high

01:26:40.720 there

01:26:40.880 65

01:26:41.260 I might

01:26:41.800 back

01:26:43.280 that

01:26:43.620 just to

01:26:44.060 because I

01:26:45.700 think there's

01:26:45.980 something in

01:26:46.720 the odds

01:26:46.980 there

01:26:47.220 why not

01:26:47.520 put your

01:26:48.100 money where

01:26:48.340 your mouth

01:26:48.580 is

01:26:48.700 bang 20

01:26:49.220 quid

01:26:49.600 Sadiq Khan

01:26:51.400 to be

01:26:51.760 PM

01:26:52.220 maybe I

01:26:52.920 will

01:26:53.160 maybe I

01:26:53.800 will

01:26:53.820 of the

01:26:54.380 Labour

01:26:54.540 Party

01:26:54.900 not

01:26:55.460 necessarily

01:26:55.800 PM

01:26:56.140 okay

01:26:56.560 yeah

01:26:57.080 yeah

01:26:58.100 well if you

01:26:58.720 think it's

01:26:59.040 going to happen

01:26:59.340 before the

01:26:59.620 next election

01:27:00.020 I suppose

01:27:00.300 that's

01:27:00.560 by default

01:27:01.220 I had

01:27:02.160 to mention

01:27:02.920 he's another

01:27:03.920 credible

01:27:04.260 candidate

01:27:04.640 David

01:27:05.060 Millivan

01:27:05.720 I put his

01:27:07.840 brother up

01:27:08.600 on the

01:27:08.960 left so you

01:27:09.940 wouldn't

01:27:10.200 confuse

01:27:10.620 so this is

01:27:11.380 really

01:27:11.600 this is

01:27:12.020 always funny

01:27:12.840 for me

01:27:13.200 right

01:27:13.380 so these

01:27:14.300 two are

01:27:14.760 brothers

01:27:15.100 they're both

01:27:15.640 you know

01:27:16.820 big beasts

01:27:18.220 in the

01:27:18.720 Labour Party

01:27:19.760 David

01:27:21.020 is

01:27:21.780 smart

01:27:22.760 urbane

01:27:23.900 good interviewer

01:27:26.360 calculating

01:27:27.720 serious contender

01:27:29.220 and his

01:27:29.660 brother is

01:27:30.320 an absolute

01:27:31.520 prat

01:27:32.720 right

01:27:33.400 and these

01:27:34.160 two went up

01:27:34.860 for Labour

01:27:35.240 leader

01:27:35.640 and Labour

01:27:37.060 chose Ed

01:27:38.120 over David

01:27:39.520 was because

01:27:40.600 of the

01:27:40.940 odd way

01:27:41.680 they did

01:27:42.020 it

01:27:42.120 right

01:27:42.220 you could

01:27:42.400 have a

01:27:42.620 second

01:27:42.840 vote

01:27:43.060 and a

01:27:43.240 third

01:27:43.440 vote

01:27:43.760 and you

01:27:44.540 tally it

01:27:44.940 all up

01:27:45.360 and he

01:27:46.100 just pipped

01:27:46.900 him

01:27:47.160 because the

01:27:47.900 trade unionist

01:27:48.720 wanted Ed

01:27:49.340 he's more

01:27:50.260 lefty

01:27:50.700 and at that

01:27:51.900 point David

01:27:52.480 was like sod

01:27:53.160 this and he

01:27:53.680 left and he

01:27:54.120 became something

01:27:54.900 big at

01:27:55.380 Facebook and

01:27:56.120 now he

01:27:56.420 runs

01:27:56.860 what does

01:27:57.700 he run

01:27:58.080 International

01:28:00.100 Rescue

01:28:00.740 so would

01:28:01.980 these be the

01:28:02.580 guys bringing

01:28:03.100 votes or

01:28:03.820 I think they're

01:28:04.300 the Thunderbirds

01:28:04.900 aren't they

01:28:05.300 I don't know

01:28:07.040 but David

01:28:07.920 yeah I mean

01:28:08.660 he's again

01:28:09.160 got that

01:28:09.620 Teflon thing

01:28:10.760 about him

01:28:11.240 he was Foreign

01:28:11.680 Secretary

01:28:12.040 wasn't he

01:28:12.380 for a while

01:28:12.720 he's been

01:28:13.320 around ever

01:28:13.840 since the

01:28:14.220 Blair years

01:28:14.900 but I think

01:28:17.000 I might be

01:28:17.880 wrong of course

01:28:18.400 don't know

01:28:19.380 what's going

01:28:19.720 on in his

01:28:20.200 life

01:28:20.480 but I think

01:28:21.120 he's ruled

01:28:21.560 out ever

01:28:21.960 coming back

01:28:22.440 to frontline

01:28:23.420 politics

01:28:23.980 quite possibly

01:28:24.980 I mean he'd

01:28:25.880 be earning

01:28:26.140 more money

01:28:26.820 because Ed

01:28:27.660 is in the

01:28:28.060 cabinet right

01:28:28.540 now right

01:28:29.020 yes

01:28:29.660 and David

01:28:30.180 isn't even

01:28:30.860 an MP

01:28:31.340 I mean it

01:28:31.700 is bizarre

01:28:32.220 so he again

01:28:34.000 he would need

01:28:34.440 to be

01:28:34.620 parachuted

01:28:34.980 back

01:28:35.160 I think he's

01:28:36.560 got quite

01:28:37.140 tight odds

01:28:37.780 given that

01:28:38.200 given the

01:28:38.680 mainly

01:28:39.160 thing that

01:28:39.520 you said

01:28:39.780 that he

01:28:39.960 doesn't want

01:28:40.380 to come

01:28:40.620 back

01:28:40.760 it's been

01:28:41.100 quite clear

01:28:41.600 and he's

01:28:42.020 making a lot

01:28:42.440 more money

01:28:42.840 and having

01:28:43.140 an easier

01:28:43.460 life

01:28:43.740 outside of

01:28:44.400 politics

01:28:44.720 so I

01:28:46.360 probably

01:28:47.040 wouldn't

01:28:47.620 back that

01:28:48.200 one

01:28:48.500 he's also

01:28:50.440 a bloody

01:28:51.380 red

01:28:51.800 he's not

01:28:52.660 like

01:28:52.940 he is a full

01:28:54.360 blown

01:28:54.620 their family

01:28:55.120 are Marxists

01:28:55.800 so it's not

01:28:57.700 like David

01:28:58.820 Middaband

01:28:59.260 will come back

01:28:59.740 and we'll have

01:29:00.080 a good government

01:29:00.740 no he's

01:29:01.920 less left

01:29:02.620 gluing than

01:29:03.060 his brother

01:29:03.500 but still

01:29:04.820 scaled for

01:29:05.480 labour

01:29:05.700 and then

01:29:07.380 I just

01:29:07.600 thought

01:29:07.760 I'll throw

01:29:08.360 in one

01:29:08.980 for

01:29:09.260 why not

01:29:10.180 throw in

01:29:10.520 one for

01:29:10.820 Kemi

01:29:11.040 just to

01:29:11.440 show her

01:29:11.820 odds

01:29:12.040 she's 11.5

01:29:13.580 I put her

01:29:15.300 leftism down

01:29:15.940 at one

01:29:16.480 I didn't know

01:29:17.040 her majority

01:29:17.660 was so small

01:29:18.420 yep

01:29:19.100 didn't know

01:29:19.980 that

01:29:20.280 should have

01:29:21.000 known that

01:29:21.540 wow okay

01:29:22.940 so her

01:29:24.580 odds were

01:29:24.880 11.5

01:29:25.660 compared to

01:29:27.360 the

01:29:28.320 Nige

01:29:28.760 his odds

01:29:30.560 are only

01:29:30.780 3.3

01:29:31.660 he's got

01:29:32.460 very low

01:29:33.140 odds of

01:29:33.480 being the

01:29:33.720 next prime

01:29:34.080 minister

01:29:34.400 very

01:29:35.700 high

01:29:36.900 never mind

01:29:38.560 whichever way

01:29:39.020 yeah

01:29:39.380 yes

01:29:39.760 it's a

01:29:40.820 decent

01:29:41.320 it's a

01:29:41.960 decent bet

01:29:42.440 I mean

01:29:42.780 you might

01:29:43.020 not even

01:29:43.360 get much

01:29:43.700 you won't

01:29:44.140 get much

01:29:44.500 back

01:29:44.640 decent

01:29:44.740 majority

01:29:46.920 as well

01:29:47.500 especially

01:29:47.860 given he's

01:29:48.400 an outsider

01:29:48.820 party

01:29:49.260 I put his

01:29:50.440 leftism down

01:29:51.060 to zero

01:29:51.500 again this is

01:29:52.200 scaled for

01:29:52.660 labour because

01:29:53.380 he's basically

01:29:54.540 just a

01:29:54.900 centrist who

01:29:55.440 doesn't

01:29:55.700 challenge any

01:29:56.280 of the

01:29:56.500 assumptions

01:29:56.840 of the

01:29:57.240 left-wing

01:29:57.520 paradigm

01:29:58.000 yeah

01:29:59.080 I left

01:30:00.360 him at

01:30:00.600 zero

01:30:00.960 which is

01:30:01.740 to say

01:30:02.160 you know

01:30:02.420 not left

01:30:02.880 wing by

01:30:03.240 labour

01:30:03.500 standards

01:30:03.920 but still

01:30:04.640 dirty

01:30:05.840 dirty

01:30:06.100 centrist

01:30:06.620 he is

01:30:08.020 very

01:30:08.760 charismatic

01:30:09.360 you've got

01:30:10.040 to give

01:30:10.240 him that

01:30:10.560 interesting

01:30:10.860 with the

01:30:11.200 Movember

01:30:11.700 clash going

01:30:12.440 on in

01:30:12.820 that picture

01:30:13.280 yeah

01:30:13.860 indeed

01:30:14.180 he's

01:30:15.420 pretty

01:30:15.620 smart

01:30:16.000 and he's

01:30:16.860 experienced

01:30:17.360 I mean

01:30:17.580 not in

01:30:18.040 Westminster

01:30:18.680 perhaps

01:30:19.120 but you

01:30:19.760 know

01:30:19.820 he's been

01:30:20.080 in politics

01:30:20.480 for a

01:30:20.780 long

01:30:20.920 long

01:30:21.120 time

01:30:21.460 so I

01:30:22.040 had to

01:30:22.200 put his

01:30:22.440 experience

01:30:22.840 up and

01:30:23.140 he's got

01:30:23.320 a decent

01:30:23.560 majority

01:30:23.920 so that's

01:30:24.420 good

01:30:24.620 I mean

01:30:25.160 that is

01:30:25.500 the thing

01:30:25.800 about his

01:30:26.300 charisma

01:30:26.620 we've

01:30:27.160 particularly

01:30:27.720 personally

01:30:28.280 I have

01:30:28.860 thrown shade

01:30:29.520 at Nige

01:30:30.000 a whole load

01:30:31.160 of times

01:30:31.480 but you

01:30:31.960 cannot deny

01:30:32.900 his charisma

01:30:35.800 his charisma

01:30:35.820 his ability

01:30:36.380 to speak

01:30:37.020 it cannot

01:30:38.120 be denied

01:30:39.120 I went

01:30:40.340 to the

01:30:40.660 reform

01:30:41.000 conference

01:30:41.480 what two

01:30:41.880 years ago

01:30:42.300 or three

01:30:42.660 years ago

01:30:43.140 and people

01:30:44.080 were up

01:30:44.320 there

01:30:44.480 even the

01:30:44.860 other

01:30:45.040 some of

01:30:45.360 the other

01:30:45.580 big people

01:30:46.400 like

01:30:47.960 Tyus and

01:30:48.500 stuff

01:30:48.720 they get

01:30:48.960 up and

01:30:49.160 they talk

01:30:49.540 and it's

01:30:49.820 interesting

01:30:50.220 and we

01:30:50.620 come

01:30:50.860 Nige

01:30:52.240 comes in

01:30:52.680 and there

01:30:52.940 is a

01:30:53.240 little bit

01:30:53.580 of electric

01:30:54.080 and he

01:30:55.440 does work

01:30:56.100 the crowd

01:30:56.700 a bit

01:30:57.160 he's very

01:31:00.260 effective at

01:31:00.900 that

01:31:01.120 got to

01:31:02.420 give him

01:31:02.640 that

01:31:02.820 so before

01:31:03.480 I close

01:31:04.080 off

01:31:04.400 the granddaddy

01:31:05.900 of them

01:31:06.100 all

01:31:06.280 this is

01:31:06.600 base

01:31:07.440 stop

01:31:07.680 Trump's

01:31:08.320 Rupert

01:31:08.720 Lowe

01:31:08.900 experience

01:31:09.420 five

01:31:10.020 long

01:31:11.020 business

01:31:11.540 career

01:31:11.900 city

01:31:12.220 banker

01:31:12.700 chairman

01:31:13.640 of

01:31:13.840 Southampton

01:31:14.280 FC

01:31:14.580 led

01:31:14.960 multiple

01:31:15.440 financial

01:31:16.000 and

01:31:16.200 agricultural

01:31:16.600 businesses

01:31:17.180 preventing

01:31:17.600 politics

01:31:18.060 intellect

01:31:18.560 five

01:31:19.120 sharp as

01:31:20.340 a tack

01:31:20.600 this guy

01:31:21.020 charisma

01:31:21.440 five

01:31:22.080 left is

01:31:23.380 a minus

01:31:23.960 five

01:31:24.620 boom

01:31:25.720 I didn't

01:31:27.420 know his

01:31:27.760 majority

01:31:28.080 was that

01:31:28.400 small

01:31:28.600 either

01:31:28.820 I knew

01:31:29.140 it wasn't

01:31:29.420 big

01:31:29.700 but that

01:31:30.220 is actually

01:31:30.700 pretty tight

01:31:31.340 well I mean

01:31:31.700 he wasn't

01:31:32.320 expected to

01:31:32.820 win

01:31:32.960 he wasn't

01:31:33.400 supposed to

01:31:33.740 win

01:31:33.860 but you

01:31:34.480 know he

01:31:34.640 got through

01:31:34.940 anyway

01:31:35.200 and actually

01:31:35.700 his majority

01:31:36.200 will be a

01:31:36.620 lot bigger

01:31:37.080 next time

01:31:37.620 I think

01:31:38.020 I hope so

01:31:38.620 I think so

01:31:39.140 almost a very

01:31:39.920 good

01:31:40.100 constituency

01:31:40.540 yeah everyone

01:31:41.540 says that

01:31:41.940 it's been a

01:31:42.260 very good

01:31:42.600 constituency

01:31:42.960 and that

01:31:43.580 seems to

01:31:44.040 be the

01:31:44.180 consensus

01:31:44.480 and his

01:31:44.940 odds are

01:31:45.440 surprisingly

01:31:46.060 low

01:31:46.500 look at

01:31:47.040 that 42

01:31:47.540 I mean that's

01:31:48.800 lower than

01:31:49.280 some of the

01:31:49.640 people who are

01:31:49.960 actually in the

01:31:50.300 cabinet now

01:31:50.920 yeah

01:31:51.220 so that is

01:31:52.740 decent

01:31:53.000 so we leave

01:31:53.700 that there

01:31:54.440 have a quick

01:31:56.540 look at any

01:31:57.780 questions

01:31:58.240 Alexander Adam

01:32:00.020 says no I

01:32:01.040 can't read that

01:32:02.340 because we will

01:32:03.100 get arrested

01:32:03.780 T-tone says

01:32:06.660 excellent segments

01:32:07.460 this morning

01:32:08.120 this America

01:32:08.700 appreciates you

01:32:09.400 all

01:32:09.580 thank you

01:32:10.280 thanks

01:32:10.580 Archbishop

01:32:12.880 of Doan's

01:32:13.380 there was an

01:32:14.120 arsonist at

01:32:15.040 the PM's

01:32:16.580 residence and

01:32:17.160 the press can't

01:32:17.840 be arsed to

01:32:18.380 ask any

01:32:18.820 penetrating

01:32:19.360 questions

01:32:19.920 this is barely

01:32:21.640 propered up in

01:32:22.640 the mainstream

01:32:23.140 media what a

01:32:24.120 queer situation

01:32:24.980 yes it is

01:32:25.720 very odd

01:32:26.200 like you I'm

01:32:28.420 a bit confused

01:32:29.220 I don't know

01:32:29.440 what's going on

01:32:29.940 there

01:32:30.120 how queer

01:32:30.640 right okay

01:32:31.380 have we got

01:32:31.720 any of the

01:32:32.720 video comments

01:32:33.760 the videos

01:32:35.980 did we do

01:32:36.620 video comments

01:32:37.280 today

01:32:37.620 somebody wake

01:32:39.580 Samson up

01:32:40.160 have we got

01:32:40.460 the videos

01:32:40.960 we've got

01:32:43.760 something else

01:32:44.100 to do

01:32:44.360 we should read

01:32:45.140 some comments

01:32:45.700 can we read

01:32:46.580 some comments

01:32:47.340 okay right

01:32:50.840 okay let's go

01:32:51.660 to the

01:32:54.000 comment bit

01:32:55.140 do you want

01:32:56.700 to read some

01:32:57.360 from yours

01:32:57.740 sure

01:32:58.600 pick out two

01:33:00.580 or three that

01:33:00.960 you like

01:33:01.560 very good

01:33:02.300 Baden von

01:33:03.480 Warhawk

01:33:04.040 just because

01:33:04.580 the name

01:33:04.940 if I had to

01:33:05.780 guess what's

01:33:06.320 happening now

01:33:06.880 I'm going to

01:33:07.220 say that Russia

01:33:07.700 is not going to

01:33:08.400 listen to any

01:33:08.940 calls for a

01:33:09.380 ceasefire

01:33:09.700 correct

01:33:10.080 and will

01:33:11.000 accept nothing

01:33:11.560 but unconditional

01:33:12.200 surrender now

01:33:12.920 yeah

01:33:13.180 as this is the

01:33:14.440 second time

01:33:14.900 there was talk

01:33:15.400 about the

01:33:15.680 ceasefire

01:33:16.100 and they

01:33:16.340 used it

01:33:16.640 to strike

01:33:17.000 Russia

01:33:17.340 one thing

01:33:18.180 we can all

01:33:18.580 agree on

01:33:19.000 is that the

01:33:19.300 war will

01:33:19.600 continue

01:33:19.980 yeah more

01:33:20.540 or less

01:33:20.800 more or less

01:33:21.480 Gabriel

01:33:24.120 Syme

01:33:24.740 the drone

01:33:25.820 operation is

01:33:26.420 perhaps more

01:33:26.980 valuable to

01:33:27.580 Ukraine as a

01:33:28.260 statement than

01:33:28.880 the actual

01:33:29.300 strategic results

01:33:30.160 yes good

01:33:30.960 point

01:33:31.220 they have

01:33:32.320 needed to

01:33:32.820 prove for a

01:33:33.900 while now

01:33:34.360 that they are

01:33:34.740 capable of

01:33:35.240 fighting back to

01:33:35.900 try and boost

01:33:36.420 their own morale

01:33:37.080 and dissuade

01:33:38.060 NATO backers

01:33:38.900 it's not a

01:33:39.960 lost cause

01:33:40.520 the impact on

01:33:41.820 the battlefield

01:33:42.220 itself seems

01:33:43.080 minimal however

01:33:43.900 so I would

01:33:44.480 expect that the

01:33:45.040 borders will

01:33:45.480 continue to

01:33:45.960 slowly shrink

01:33:46.520 west in

01:33:47.040 addition to

01:33:47.440 whatever

01:33:47.700 reprisals

01:33:48.360 Putin comes

01:33:49.420 up with

01:33:49.780 yeah

01:33:50.080 very much

01:33:50.760 an agreement

01:33:51.160 yeah

01:33:52.060 do you want

01:33:54.500 to do

01:33:54.680 something

01:33:54.880 yeah just a

01:33:55.700 quick one to

01:33:56.160 say on your

01:33:57.540 segment

01:33:58.000 bleach demon

01:33:59.160 said Bo

01:33:59.640 you are

01:33:59.940 thinking of

01:34:00.420 the M28

01:34:01.240 29 Davy

01:34:02.100 Crockett

01:34:02.400 nuclear weapon

01:34:02.940 system developed

01:34:03.860 in 1961

01:34:04.780 yeah that's

01:34:05.360 that bazooka

01:34:06.260 it's a

01:34:07.360 nuclear bazooka

01:34:09.460 it does sound

01:34:10.320 quite cool

01:34:10.840 doesn't it

01:34:11.200 yeah

01:34:11.460 yeah

01:34:12.240 okay flashpoint

01:34:13.860 Taiwan

01:34:14.120 let's see

01:34:15.120 Alan Fisher

01:34:15.620 says if you

01:34:16.480 were to try to

01:34:17.100 build a chip

01:34:17.720 fabrication

01:34:18.280 facility from

01:34:19.080 the ground up

01:34:19.640 it would take

01:34:20.320 years just to

01:34:21.260 get the

01:34:21.460 infiltration

01:34:21.960 system for

01:34:22.920 the air

01:34:23.340 and standards

01:34:24.100 needed to

01:34:24.580 allow production

01:34:25.300 right I get

01:34:27.160 that you don't

01:34:27.960 build Rome

01:34:28.340 in a day

01:34:30.200 let's read a

01:34:32.340 short one

01:34:32.840 Captain Charlie

01:34:34.460 the Beagle

01:34:35.060 says we're

01:34:35.780 5-1 can't

01:34:36.340 wait to see

01:34:36.760 Taiwan take

01:34:37.720 back control

01:34:38.260 of mainland

01:34:38.660 China

01:34:39.020 yeah

01:34:39.340 let's do it

01:34:40.720 let's make

01:34:41.060 it happen

01:34:41.460 no

01:34:42.300 let's go

01:34:45.180 and Peter

01:34:48.180 Harvey says

01:34:49.520 if Taiwan

01:34:50.160 truly falls

01:34:51.340 the West

01:34:52.060 might carpet

01:34:52.580 bomb all

01:34:53.180 of its

01:34:53.400 factories

01:34:53.760 to ensure

01:34:54.200 China doesn't

01:34:54.900 get any

01:34:55.500 of its

01:34:55.700 technology

01:34:56.100 I've heard

01:34:56.840 that as a

01:34:57.620 one thing

01:34:58.480 that yeah

01:34:58.820 if China

01:34:59.980 invaded Taiwan

01:35:01.860 maybe America

01:35:03.120 would flatten

01:35:03.900 the that

01:35:05.800 that factory

01:35:06.560 facilities up in

01:35:07.580 the north near

01:35:08.060 Taipei just

01:35:08.900 so the Chinese

01:35:09.320 don't get their

01:35:09.680 hands on it

01:35:10.120 I mean it's

01:35:11.040 not a crazy

01:35:11.760 tactic

01:35:12.600 anyway

01:35:13.240 Dan and

01:35:15.080 Dank sweatily

01:35:15.720 rolling around

01:35:16.280 the ring

01:35:16.580 says

01:35:16.940 we think

01:35:18.480 that if

01:35:19.060 it bleeds

01:35:19.600 it leads

01:35:20.120 is true

01:35:20.580 sensationalism

01:35:21.420 drives a

01:35:21.960 news cycle

01:35:22.460 then the

01:35:22.760 papers would

01:35:23.160 be all

01:35:23.540 over the

01:35:24.020 Starmer story

01:35:24.860 funny that

01:35:25.500 this also

01:35:25.900 applies to

01:35:26.440 the Saville

01:35:26.880 and Epstein

01:35:27.280 cases

01:35:27.680 I don't see

01:35:28.120 the connection

01:35:29.220 why on earth

01:35:30.780 would they not

01:35:31.120 want to publish

01:35:31.600 such important

01:35:32.260 profitable

01:35:32.700 stories

01:35:33.440 Colin P

01:35:35.560 says

01:35:35.840 I've seen it

01:35:38.820 suggested that

01:35:39.420 these attacks

01:35:40.200 on two-tier

01:35:41.520 Stalin's

01:35:42.060 properties may

01:35:42.600 be part of

01:35:43.120 the apparent

01:35:43.600 drive for war

01:35:44.460 with Russia

01:35:44.820 oh yes the

01:35:45.460 telegraph put

01:35:46.180 out a story

01:35:46.780 saying that

01:35:47.280 Russia was

01:35:47.740 behind these

01:35:49.360 Russian

01:35:49.780 Ukrainian male

01:35:51.200 models

01:35:51.680 what's the

01:35:52.740 angle on that

01:35:53.480 they weren't

01:35:54.740 able to find

01:35:55.400 one and they

01:35:56.020 did say in

01:35:56.580 the article

01:35:56.940 we haven't

01:35:57.280 got any

01:35:57.560 evidence for

01:35:58.080 this but

01:35:58.900 it's Russia

01:35:59.380 right

01:36:00.540 so again

01:36:02.600 what's the

01:36:02.980 angle that

01:36:03.460 how does

01:36:03.760 that make

01:36:04.180 who does

01:36:04.660 that benefit

01:36:04.960 don't ask

01:36:05.900 okay got it

01:36:07.180 you have to

01:36:08.520 accept it

01:36:08.960 stop complaining

01:36:10.060 and Sophie

01:36:11.180 Liv says

01:36:11.740 I'm going to

01:36:12.360 be honest

01:36:12.760 I don't

01:36:13.200 really see

01:36:13.620 the attractiveness

01:36:14.380 of these

01:36:14.840 guys

01:36:15.360 right well

01:36:16.500 okay let me

01:36:17.120 explain it to you

01:36:17.640 Sophie

01:36:17.760 first of all

01:36:18.400 you are a

01:36:18.860 lady and

01:36:19.960 I think you're

01:36:20.880 a lady that

01:36:21.380 likes gentlemen

01:36:22.440 I don't think

01:36:25.320 that these

01:36:26.100 pretty young men

01:36:27.340 are going

01:36:28.880 after

01:36:29.460 you're not

01:36:30.460 the intended

01:36:30.840 yes your

01:36:31.820 intended market

01:36:32.640 and so that's

01:36:33.720 one thing

01:36:34.360 second

01:36:35.560 the photos

01:36:38.120 are them

01:36:38.840 now

01:36:39.420 you want to

01:36:40.080 think about

01:36:40.520 how they

01:36:40.860 looked four

01:36:41.920 or five years

01:36:42.400 ago

01:36:42.700 when they were

01:36:44.600 much more

01:36:44.980 boyish

01:36:45.540 boyish

01:36:46.720 she also

01:36:48.380 goes on to

01:36:48.860 say well I

01:36:49.840 always go watch

01:36:50.540 lotus eaters

01:36:51.180 dot com for

01:36:51.820 my eye candy

01:36:52.680 so there's that

01:36:53.780 yes

01:36:54.260 actually I think

01:36:55.300 I think she

01:36:55.720 liked you

01:36:56.200 I think

01:36:57.680 are you trying

01:36:58.280 to pout

01:36:58.720 are you trying

01:37:01.760 to do blue

01:37:02.440 blue steel

01:37:03.660 yeah

01:37:05.560 poor girl

01:37:08.540 poor girl

01:37:09.560 she's going to

01:37:11.400 freeze frame

01:37:11.980 anyway sorry

01:37:12.760 I've waffled

01:37:13.240 over and I'm

01:37:13.780 ten minutes

01:37:14.220 late I'm going

01:37:14.940 to be told

01:37:15.340 off

01:37:15.600 thank you very

01:37:18.060 much for

01:37:18.300 watching

01:37:18.600 bye

01:37:18.880 bye

01:37:19.780 bye

01:37:20.280 bye

01:37:20.980 bye

01:37:21.540 bye

01:37:21.780 bye

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - June 03, 2025

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters #1178

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