Learn English with Donald Trump. President Donald Trump delivers a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Philadelphia, PA on January 20th, 2020, where he spoke on the state of the country and what it means to be a Christian in America.
Transcript
Transcripts from "America First - Nicholas J. Fuentes" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. You can also explore and interact with the transcripts here.
00:00:04.000The stars are brightly shining, it is the night of the dear Saviour's birth.
00:00:17.000Long may the world in sin and error pining, till he appeared and the soul melted.
00:00:32.000A thrill of hope, the weary world rejoices, for yonder breaks a new and glorious war.
00:00:45.000Fall on your knees, O hear the angel voices, O night divine, O night when Christ was born.
00:01:11.000O night, O holy night, O night divine.
00:01:28.000So let my light of the stars sweetly gleaming, here came the wiser I
00:02:03.000O hear the angel voices, O night divine, O night when Christ was born. O night when Christ was born.
00:02:22.000O night, O holy night, O night divine.
00:02:48.000And then nowadays, I am so upset that the things we did and the things we fought for and the boys that died for us, it's all gone down the drain.
00:03:02.000Our country's gone to hell in a handbasket.
00:03:07.000We haven't got the country we had when I was raised.
00:04:46.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
00:04:50.000We're being slowly poisoned and in some cases, quickly murdered and assassinated.
00:04:57.000And we're killing ourselves every day, inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
00:05:04.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
00:05:12.000People have got to start to get courageous.
00:05:15.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God And to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
00:05:29.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
00:05:33.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
00:05:37.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
00:05:44.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
00:05:47.000it's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
00:06:28.000I want a wall, and I want to drill, drill, drill.
00:06:31.000My own narrative is not one of some sudden, booming bolt of lightning out of the blue.
00:06:48.000It was a slow and steady, unrelenting stream of blips and blinks, glimmers and glares, low beams and high beams of light, some of which I did not want to see.
00:07:03.000And then finally, a point of no return reckoning.
00:07:12.000I think it was because I fiercely came out during the Griper Wars of 2019 when so many of these brave young men were on college campuses challenging the likes of Zio Schill Dan Crenshaw, questioning him about his undying loyalty and, of course, defending Nick Fuentes and so many of the stars of the burgeoning America First movement.
00:07:35.000who through an increasing amount of activism are really going to ensure the future America is a nation of believers, dreamers, and strivers that is being led by a group of censors, critics, and cynics.
00:07:55.000These interests have rigged our political and economic system for their exclusive benefit.
00:10:03.000O come, O come, Emmanuel, to free your captive Israel, that mourns to free your captive Israel, that mourns in lonely exile here, that mourns in lonely exile here, until the Son
00:17:11.000because if there are thousands and millions and tens of millions and hundreds of millions of Christians ready to meet their final destiny, then nothing can stop us and nothing will.
00:17:25.000The more that a broken system tells you that you're wrong, the more certain you should be that you must keep pushing ahead. .
00:17:48.000Because it's the outsiders who change the world and who make a real and lasting difference.
00:23:22.000Years from now, some of them may look back and ask themselves whether they've made the right choice, whether they've made the most of the opportunities they've been given.
00:26:43.000Today, each of you begins a new chapter as well.
00:26:47.000When your story goes from here, it will be defined by your vision, your perseverance, and your grit You will build a future where we have the courage to chase our dreams no matter what the cynics and the doubters have to say.
00:27:06.000You will have the confidence to speak the hopes in your hearts and to express the love that stirs your souls.
00:27:16.000As long as you have pride in your beliefs, courage in your convictions, and faith in God, Then you will not fail.
00:27:28.000As long as America remains true to its values, loyal to its citizens, and devoted to its creator, then our best days are yet to come.
00:28:46.000can I just say are you trusting Brian Adams?
00:28:50.000Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you the American people.
00:29:15.000The Washington establishment and the financial and media corporations that fund it exist for only one reason, to protect and enrich itself.
00:29:26.000The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election.
00:29:30.000For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interest, they partner with these people that don't have your good in mind.
00:29:40.000Our campaign represents a true existential threat like they haven't seen before.
00:29:49.000This is not simply another four-year election.
00:29:51.000This is a crossroads in the history of our civilization that will determine whether or not we the people reclaim control over our government.
00:30:04.000The political establishment That is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration, and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry.
00:30:23.000The political establishment has brought about the destruction of our factories and our jobs as they flee to Mexico, China, and other countries all around the world.
00:30:34.000It's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth, and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities.
00:30:51.000This is a struggle for the survival of our nation, and this will be our last chance to save it.
00:31:00.000This election will determine whether we're a free nation or whether we have only the illusion of democracy, but are in fact controlled by a small handful of global special interests rigging the system, and our system is rigged.
00:37:11.000Wish that you cocaine in my baby I want nothing to do.
00:37:15.000My own narrative is not one of some sudden, booming bolt of lightning out of the blue.
00:37:21.000It was a slow and steady, unrelenting stream of blips and blinks, glimmers and glares, low beams and high beams of light, some of which I did not want to see.
00:37:35.000And then finally, a point of no return reckoning.
00:37:45.000I think it was because I fiercely came out during the Griper Wars of 2019 when so many of these brave young men were on college campuses challenging the likes of Zio Schill, Dan Crenshaw, questioning him about his undying loyalty and, of course, defending Nick Fuentes and so many of the stars of the burgeoning America First movement.
00:38:07.000Who, through an increasing amount of activism, are really going to ensure the future and the success of that movement.
00:38:15.000Napoleon, Alexander the Great, Donald Trump, were all cut from the same cloth.
00:43:02.000And yes, together, we will make America great again.
00:43:12.000Why wouldn't you dedicate yourself to public service?
00:43:15.000Because I think it's a very mean life.
00:43:17.000I would love and I would dedicate my life to this country, but I see it as being a mean life.
00:43:22.000And I also see it as somebody with strong views.
00:43:25.000And somebody with the kind of views that are maybe a little bit unpopular, which may be right, but may be unpopular, wouldn't necessarily have a chance of getting elected against somebody with no great brain but a big smile.
00:43:37.000And that's a sad commentary for the political process.
00:43:40.000And if you have a minute, why don't we go?
00:45:16.000Long may the world in sin and error pining, till he appeared and the soul melted A thrill of hope, the weary world rejoices, for yonder breaks a new and glorious war.
00:45:45.000Fall on your knees O hear the angel voices O night divine
00:46:03.000O night when Christ was born O night, O holy night O night O holy night O night divine Amen.
00:46:27.000So let my light of the stars, sweetly gleaming, here came the wise The King of kings laid us in lowly manger In all our trials born to be our friend Fall
00:46:57.000on your knees O hear the angel voices And
00:47:48.000then nowadays, I am so upset that the things we did and the things we fought for and the boys that died for us, it's all gone down the drain.
00:48:01.000Our country's gone to hell in a handbasket.
00:48:07.000We haven't got the country we had when I was raised.
00:51:27.000I want a wall and I want to drill, drill, drill.
00:51:30.000My own narrative is not one of some sudden, booming bolt of lightning out of the blue.
00:51:48.000It was a slow and steady, unrelenting stream of blips and blinks, glimmers and glares, low beams and high beams of light, some of which I did not want to see.
00:52:03.000And then finally, a point of no return reckoning.
00:52:12.000I think it was because I fiercely came out during the Griper Wars of 2019 when so many of these brave young men were on college campuses challenging the likes of Zio Schill Dan Crenshaw, questioning him about his undying loyalty and of course defending Nick Fuentes and so many of the stars of the burgeoning America First movement who through an increasing amount of activism are really going to ensure the future and the success of that movement.
00:52:42.000America is a nation of believers, dreamers, and strivers that is being led by a group of censors, critics, and cynics.
00:52:54.000These interests have rigged our political and economic system for their exclusive benefit.
01:08:21.000from now, some of them may look back and ask themselves whether they've made the right choice, whether they've made the most of the opportunities they've been given.
01:13:45.000Can I just say, are you trusting Brian Adams?
01:13:49.000Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you, the American people.
01:14:14.000The Washington establishment and the financial and media corporations that fund it exist for only one reason, to protect and enrich itself.
01:14:25.000The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election.
01:14:29.000For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interest, they partner with these people that don't have your good in mind.
01:14:40.000Our campaign represents a true existential threat like they haven't seen before.
01:14:48.000This is not simply another four-year election.
01:14:51.000This is a crossroads in the history of our civilization that will determine whether or not we, the people, reclaim control over our government.
01:15:03.000The political establishment That is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration, and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry.
01:15:22.000The political establishment has brought about the destruction of our factories and our jobs as they flee to Mexico, China, and other countries all around the world.
01:15:33.000It's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth, and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities.
01:15:51.000This is a struggle for the survival of our nation, and this will be our last chance to save it.
01:15:59.000This election will determine whether we're a free nation or whether we have only the illusion of democracy, but are in fact controlled by a small handful of global special interests rigging the system, and our system is rigged.
01:21:54.000Our featured story tonight, we're going to be talking all about the civil war in Syria and Which is not over but seems to have entered into a new phase as of this weekend.
01:22:08.000I'm sure you've heard the news but the Assad regime has officially collapsed.
01:23:44.000Syria could become partitioned like Libya or Yemen into effectively different countries.
01:23:52.000It could become a Sunni Islamist government like Afghanistan.
01:23:58.000It could become a Sunni Islamist government like Egypt and then be overthrown by a Ba'athist remnant, which is what happened to Egypt later on.
01:25:35.000We will probably cover the story of the UnitedHealthcare assassin tomorrow.
01:25:41.000The other big development from today is that the assassin who killed the healthcare executive last week in New York was apprehended and identified.
01:26:27.000Turns out to actually be a disgruntled consumer.
01:26:31.000And effectively a terrorist, a political terrorist, in the sense that it was political in nature, with political goals, premeditated, targeted.
01:26:43.000And so I think we'll talk about that, though, tomorrow, because that's another big story.
01:31:39.000But the other thing specifically I wanted to get into is I have been heavily critical.
01:31:44.000This is related recently of Scott Ritter.
01:31:48.000You know, I'm a big fan of Judge Andrew Napolitano.
01:31:53.000He's got a daily show and he brings on all of the Israel critical analysts, people like Jeffrey Sachs and Scott Ritter and Max Blumenthal and John Mearsheimer.
01:32:07.000He brings these guys on to his morning show and they analyze Ukraine and the Middle East conflict primarily.
01:32:15.000And all these different guys come on and they give their takes.
01:32:22.000Okay, this is really like a must-watch show for anybody that's interested in the subject.
01:32:27.000In my opinion, a lot of these guys are really hit or miss.
01:32:31.000And I think a lot of it is either foreign intelligence or wishful thinking.
01:32:36.000Because what I tend to find among this community, and I like the show and I like a lot of the people on it, But I think what you tend to find in that community, these guys like Pablo Escobar and other people who write on UnzReview and Antiwar.com, there's a lot of wishful thinking or maybe just willful misdirection.
01:32:59.000And they're heavily critical of Israel and sometimes it crosses the line into delusion.
01:33:07.000Where they won't even admit that Israel is successful on the battlefield.
01:33:13.000So, for example, lately, I've been very critical of Scott Ritter.
01:33:18.000I've been poking fun at him because Israel seems to be succeeding in this Middle Eastern conflict.
01:33:26.000As you know, ever since October 7th, there has been a war that has engulfed the entire region.
01:33:32.000There's fighting in Gaza, the West Bank, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen.
01:33:39.000And no matter what happens, no matter what the development is, Scott Ritter will always be reliably on the show, on the judge, on Judge Napolitano saying, Hezbollah is going to beat Israel.
01:34:00.000All of this intelligence is All of this apparently open source intelligence, or maybe these are his sources because he's a weapons inspector.
01:34:12.000So every show, it's always this chest beating about how Israel doesn't know what they're getting into.
01:34:20.000And yet, what we see in the news every week is that Israel is successful, that they have routed Hamas.
01:34:29.000They've defeated 22 out of 25 Hamas battalions, that they've conducted thousands of airstrikes in Lebanon, that they have killed the leader of Hezbollah, the successor to the leader, the successor to the successor, the successor to the the successor to the successor, the successor to the successor to the successor to the leader.
01:34:49.000That they've been spying on their radios for a decade and then blew them up with remote explosives.
01:34:56.000And no matter what seems to happen, Scott Ritter will come on the show and say, Israel will fall.
01:36:12.000It is very, very important to realize that just like there is Israeli intelligence and American intelligence, and just like there are people that are witting or unwitting pawns of the Israeli and American state, people kind of understand that if you watch this show.
01:36:35.000You know that Fox News is owned by the Zionists.
01:36:38.000You know that Tucker Carlson is some sort of intelligence asset.
01:36:44.000At the same time, we must be equally cautious because there are people out there that are in fact owned by Turkey or that are owned by Russia or by Iran or, yes, by Qatar or the Emirates or Saudi Arabia or by other elements.
01:37:04.000And so it's important to remember the name of this show is America First.
01:37:13.000And while I do take joy in seeing Russia take Ukrainian territory...
01:37:22.000Because we just like to see the American regime take a hit.
01:37:26.000And while we like to see the United States defeated in Afghanistan because this undermines the credibility of the neocons, among other things, the triumph of history, of tribalism, of We're a regressive fundamentalist religion.
01:37:43.000For various reasons, we like to see American empire rolled back.
01:38:11.000We are hypercritical of the Israeli occupation of America.
01:38:15.000We're critical of our support for what they're doing.
01:38:19.000At the same time, I am under no financial pressure or the sway of a foreign government to lie to you or to promulgate disinformation about what is happening.
01:38:44.000America is prevailing, for better or for worse.
01:38:47.000The empire has struck back, and the opponents of American empire have been reeling for the past couple of years.
01:38:54.000So it's just an important note on some of these analysts, because there are layers.
01:39:01.000The most important thing to understand, one of them, is that there are layers to the Many people realize they're being deceived by an Israeli-owned press, by an American-owned press.
01:39:16.000And then they rush to Russia Today, Al Jazeera.
01:39:44.000But I do think, you know, there's some suspicious things going on there.
01:39:49.000And his tendency to always come on the air and exaggerate the capabilities of these groups like Hezbollah...
01:39:59.000I think it makes him a little bit unreliable, and I think the proof of that, I think you're seeing it in this conflict right now.
01:40:05.000I think you're seeing it with Israel's incursion into Lebanon, the collapse of the Assad government.
01:40:09.000It goes to show not everybody that criticizes Israel is necessarily on our side.
01:40:17.000People like Max Blumenthal, he's another one that goes on the show.
01:40:20.000And again, I'm just saying he's part of this coterie of Israel critics that People like Max Blumenthal from the gray zone, he's another one.
01:40:29.000He criticizes Israel heavily, but he's also a Jew.
01:40:33.000And his father, Sidney Blumenthal, was the hatchet man of Bill Clinton.
01:40:36.000And for whatever reason, Max Blumenthal doesn't like to talk about Israel's role in 9-11.
01:40:41.000He also says that some people like myself who criticize Israel are real anti-Semites.
01:40:48.000So why is a Jew the son of someone who worked for one of the neoliberal political dynasties?
01:40:55.000Why is he unwilling to talk about Israel's role in 9-11?
01:40:59.000Why is he unwilling to criticize world Jewry on the whole as opposed to just one part of it?
01:41:56.000It's been going on since 2011. And we talked about it a little bit last week.
01:42:02.000What makes it so shocking, aside from the pace, the rate at which the Assad government fell, it happened completely suddenly and unexpectedly.
01:42:13.000It's also that it completely goes against the momentum of the Assad government for the past five or seven years.
01:42:22.000The tide in the Syrian civil war started to turn in favor of the Assad regime nine years ago.
01:42:30.000When Russia intervened in the conflict in 2015 and in 2016 when the Assad government held on to Aleppo and defended it from the rebels, that is the point after which it became clear that Assad would not lose power.
01:42:48.000By 2017, ISIS was defeated, and after a series of Turkish invasions by 2020, with the implementation of the Astana Agreement, the conflict lines have been frozen and have not changed considerably.
01:43:03.000And not only that, but the Assad government has actually moved towards normalization in that period.
01:43:10.000So the tide turned nine years ago in 2015. ISIS is defeated in 2017. By 2020, the conflict lines are frozen.
01:43:21.000And in that period since then, in the past four years, the Assad government has actually moved closer towards normalization diplomatically with its neighbors.
01:43:32.000It was brought back into the Arab League.
01:43:36.000Diplomatic relations were restored with the Gulf countries and And Erdogan, the president of Turkey, who was an early opponent of Assad and one of Assad's biggest foes since 2011, since the beginning, actually made and extended the olive branch to Assad in the past four years.
01:44:00.000So in other words, it seemed that everything was going wrong.
01:44:04.000In the direction that Assad wanted it to, it looked like not only had he won the war, but he would remain in power indefinitely and all of his neighbors would have to deal with it.
01:44:14.000And really, it was only a matter of time before the last rebels, the remaining stronghold in Idlib, was confronted and defeated by the government.
01:44:23.000This was the reality as of Thanksgiving.
01:44:26.000Literally two weeks ago, this was the reality.
01:44:30.000Assad controlled two-thirds of the territory, and even though he only controlled 60% of the territory, it was stable.
01:44:37.000Most of the rest of the territory was controlled by the Americans and the Kurds in northeastern Syria.
01:44:45.000So even to say that Assad controlled 60% of the territory is deceptive.
01:44:50.000Although he had lost a good percentage of his territory, the other side of the Euphrates River to an autonomous government led by the Kurds, backed by the Americans, it was only about 5 to 10% of the population that was controlled by rebels in Idlib province, which it was only about 5 to 10% of the population that was controlled by rebels
01:45:10.000There were only about 10 to 15,000 remaining rebel fighters, which the Assad government began bombing in the past couple of years, putting pressure on them.
01:45:21.000So as of two weeks ago, like I said, conflict lines are frozen.
01:45:28.000Assad is normalizing relations with his neighbor, with his neighbors, the Arabs, which he had bad relations with before.
01:45:36.000Erdogan is coming to Damascus hat in hand, looking to make concessions, looking to make a deal.
01:45:44.000And the Assad government is on their way to defeating the rebels.
01:45:49.000And like I said, it is that coupled with the pace of the collapse of the government, the suddenness, which is what has made it so surprising.
01:45:58.000In the span of two weeks, this previously unknown group, which nobody had ever heard of, a group called HTS, invaded Aleppo, which is Syria's second biggest city, launched a major offensive and took it immediately within three or four days, took control and closed launched a major offensive and took it immediately within three or four days, took control and closed off the major highways, connecting And then they marched south to the capital, basically unopposed.
01:46:27.000People were expecting Russian air power to come through.
01:46:30.000They were expecting Iranian militias or proxies to come through.
01:46:35.000They were expecting the Syrian military eventually to regroup and make some sort of last stand at Homs or maybe eventually in Damascus.
01:48:44.000So the Syrian army, 300,000 strong, and a modern military with armor, with an air force, with the backing of the Russians, with the backing of the Iranians, furnished with equipment from both.
01:49:01.000And so the question is, because the suddenness of it is not only unpredictable, but it's also strange, right?
01:49:11.000How is it that the Syrian army, the Syrian Arab army, with 300,000 personnel, with modern military equipment from Russia, with the backing of Russia and Iran, and bolstered by Iranian militias, how was it defeated without any protracted fighting?
01:50:27.000They were not supported by the Turkish-backed rebels, the Syrian National Army, which have much larger numbers as they march south.
01:50:37.000So how did a force, which is really amateurish, And again, vastly outnumbered, 20 to 1. How was it this faction out of all the factions?
01:50:51.000Not the Turkish-backed SNA, not the American-backed Kurdish SDF, not the Syrian Free Army, which emerged from the Free Syrian Army in the South.
01:51:07.000How was it that it was this Islamist faction, previously unknown, that Besieged in Idlib province, not even fully supported by any patron state, why was it this faction which seemingly took over all of Syria without any fighting?
01:51:50.000And there were reports throughout the past couple weeks of officers in the Syrian Army retreating and defecting, giving up.
01:52:00.000It seems like the Syrian Army either stood down spontaneously of their own accord or They grew tired of the Assad regime and defending the Assad regime from the rebels.
01:52:16.000But because they gave it up quickly, it seems like that was a decision that was made very rapidly or in advance of the offensive by the rebels.
01:52:27.000Or one theory is that maybe the officers in the Syrian military was bribed.
01:52:36.000They have been sanctioned since 2011. And their primary export, which is oil, except for Captagon, which is an amphetamine, which is what the Syrian government has been selling, their primary natural resource, oil, is controlled by the American-backed Kurds northeast of the Euphrates River.
01:52:59.000So if the Syrian army, Syrian government is broke, they're not getting revenue from trade because they're under immense sanctions.
01:53:08.000They're not getting revenue from oil because the oil fields are controlled by the Americans.
01:53:14.000If the Syrian army is not being paid, if the Syrian economy is failing, if the Assad government is rejecting an overture by Turkey.
01:53:27.000And if Syria is pivoting away from Iran, their major supporter in the past 10 years and towards the Arabs instead, Iran's rivals, then maybe the Syrian military was either bribed by the Americans or by the Turks or by the Israelis or some other then maybe the Syrian military was either bribed by the Americans Or they simply gave up and this was a peaceful transfer of power.
01:53:51.000But that was clearly what took place over the past couple of weeks.
01:53:55.000This was not, contrary to what everybody's calling it, this was not, strictly speaking, a military offensive.
01:54:13.000At some point, and for some reason, maybe due to outside influence, maybe was just a spontaneous collapse, the Assad government, which was upheld by the military, decided they would no longer fight.
01:54:28.000And so they retreated into the capital and then surrendered without any real battle.
01:54:36.000And you could see that there were other factors that led up to this as well, which people have pointed out.
01:54:42.000Over the past 13 years, the Assad government has been bolstered by two countries, like I said earlier.
01:54:48.000Initially, when the Syrian revolution began in 2011, the Assad government was on the back foot.
01:54:55.000The rebels were taking a lot of territory.
01:54:58.000After a period of time, all the rebels defected and became radical Muslims.
01:55:06.000They are being ruled over by an Alawite Muslim minority.
01:55:13.000And so the military, which defected from the government in 2011 and 2012, could no longer control its personnel.
01:55:21.000The personnel that defected from the Syrian government then defected from the moderate rebels and joined up with ISIS or the al-Nusra front or al-Qaeda.
01:55:32.000And by 2013-2014, you had a radical Muslim insurgency, mostly led by ISIS take over the country.
01:55:39.000And it seemed like Assad was finished.
01:55:42.000That is when, in 2015, Russia came in with air power, with its air force, to roll back the rebels, which they succeeded in doing.
01:55:52.000And Iran sent in its militias and its revolutionary guard to expand their influence inside Syria, and they worked as the ground force to roll back ISIS and the rebels.
01:56:09.000It was Russian air power and Iranian ground forces which secured the Assad government in the period, roughly speaking, from 2015 to 2017. That's when the Assad government recaptured most of its territory.
01:56:24.000And they have been the guarantors of the Assad government's consolidation and subsequent stability.
01:56:32.000Of course, recent developments have compromised both of those forces.
01:56:37.000Russia and Iran were vying for power inside of Syria between 2017 and 2022. Iran wanted to use Syria as a base to supply Hezbollah inside of Lebanon and to train Hezbollah inside of Syria.
01:56:56.000Syria was a staging ground for Iranian forces and Iranian proxies.
01:57:03.000But Iran using Syria in this way put Syria in the crosshairs of Israel.
01:57:10.000Syria is not fundamentally aligned with Iran's strategic goals.
01:58:27.000To roll back and check the influence of Iran.
01:58:32.000Russia is involved in Syria for a couple of reasons.
01:58:35.000Russia moved into Syria in 2015, largely for symbolic reasons.
01:58:41.000This was Russia's reentry into the global stage.
01:58:45.000After the fall of Soviet Union, Russia was constrained and became a country that was in effect not even a regional power.
01:58:55.000Had no force projection capability outside of its own borders.
01:59:00.000Could not intervene in Eastern Europe.
01:59:01.000Could not intervene in the Middle East.
01:59:04.000Could not intervene in Africa or Latin America or Asia like they did in the heyday of the Soviet Union.
01:59:10.000And after 15 years of rebuilding by Vladimir Putin, Syria was the first testing ground for Russia to export its arms and its influence and provide for the security needs of a country in a different region.
01:59:33.000Assad was on the ropes, Russia intervened, and Assad remained in power.
01:59:37.000And this is part of Russia's offering to other countries in the world.
01:59:43.000The United States and Russia compete with each other as arms traffickers, as arms exporters.
01:59:50.000And so this was a demonstration of Russian-provided capabilities, Russian-provided weapons.
01:59:57.000But it was also a demonstration of Russia as a patron for a client state.
02:00:03.000America gains its influence by providing for the security needs of other states.
02:00:09.000For example, the United States provides Saudi Arabia with security in exchange for oil.
02:00:15.000In this case, Russia provided Syria with security, and that was a demonstration that Russia could provide for other countries' security.
02:00:24.000In addition, there was something more pragmatic.
02:00:26.000Russia was able to host a naval base in the Mediterranean Sea in the Syrian port city of Tardis.
02:00:34.000This is very important because Russia's only other port nearby is in the Black Sea in Crimea.
02:00:42.000And for Russia to access the Mediterranean, it has to cross through a choke point controlled by Turkey, a NATO member.
02:00:50.000So for Russia to exercise naval power in the Mediterranean Sea, it has to go through a choke point controlled by a NATO country.
02:00:58.000With the naval base at TARDIS in Syria, it can project power in the Mediterranean without having to do that.
02:01:06.000So Russia not only built a naval base there, but also an air base and a number of other military outposts, and Syria became a critical client state, maybe the critical client state of Russia.
02:01:19.000Russia did not want Iran there using Syria as a base for Hezbollah because it compromised the Syrian state.
02:01:27.000And if the Syrian state fell, if the Assad regime fell under pressure from Israel and the United States, then Russia loses its bases.
02:01:36.000So Russia and Iran had an immense rivalry inside of Syria after the Assad regime gained control.
02:01:45.000But this all changed in 2022. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it had to withdraw its forces from Syria and redirect them in Ukraine.
02:01:56.000As such, Iran expanded its influence in the past couple of years, unchecked by Russia in Syria.
02:02:03.000But then another development compromised Iran's involvement in Syria.
02:02:12.000Because Israel is at war with Iran's proxies in every country, in Yemen, against Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and by carrying out airstrikes in Syria, Iran's forces have been seriously weakened.
02:02:26.000In the past couple of months since September, Israel has stepped up its airstrikes considerably, bombing Hezbollah thousands of times in Lebanon, bombing the border between Lebanon and Syria, bombing the border between Syria and Iraq, bombing Iranian positions bombing the border between Syria and Iraq, bombing Iranian positions inside of Syria.
02:02:46.000And so after 2022, Russia was disengaged from Syria.
02:02:52.000After the past couple of months, Iran's forces have been considerably weakened in and around Syria, inside of Syria, but also inside of Lebanon and Iraq.
02:03:06.000So these are the factors which contributed to the fall of the Assad government.
02:03:12.000There was a fragile peace that has been in place since 2015. Well, I shouldn't say that.
02:03:19.000There has been a fragile peace that has been in place since 2020. The tide started to turn and the consolidation was underwritten by Russian air power and Iranian ground forces.
02:03:32.000Those were the guarantors of Assad's control over the country.
02:03:38.000With Russia out of the picture, with Iran severely weakened, and because the Assad government was made poor by sanctions, because the oil was taken from them by the Americans...
02:03:52.000And because probably Iran lost interest in defending Syria on some level because Syria pivoted away from Iran and towards the Arabs, seeking acceptance from the Gulf states, being reinstated in the Arab League, reinstating diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.
02:04:13.000Maybe they didn't even want to defend the Assad regime.
02:04:17.000All of these factors contributed basically to the Assad regime giving up.
02:04:24.000And there are some reports that said that Russia and Iran didn't even want to engage for that reason.
02:04:29.000They said if Assad's forces won't fight, if the Assad forces are giving up Aleppo, giving up the cities on the way to Damascus, if they have given up, then why would Russia...
02:04:44.000Why would Iran rapidly deploy their forces to defend Syria if Assad's forces won't fight?
02:04:52.000And so there are some reports, unconfirmed, that Assad decided there would be a peaceful transfer of power.
02:04:58.000He left Syria probably at some point in the middle of last week.
02:05:04.000Russia, Iran, and the Syrian military just abandoned the fight.
02:05:08.000And now the country has been taken over by HTS. So that's the first part.
02:05:27.000It wasn't clear last week, but since HTS moved into Damascus effectively unopposed, outnumbered 20 to 1, without any fighting, without any battles, it seems without even an effort by Iran or Russia to stop them, Iran began to evacuate last week.
02:05:44.000Russia sent its warships out last week from their base in TARDIS. It seems that there was something like a coup.
02:05:55.000And the Syrian regime collapsed because without Russia engaged, with Iran's forces weakened, with the Assad government broke, and maybe with some kind of deal being made behind the scenes to bribe the generals and officers, or some warning that was given to the Assad regime.
02:06:15.000If you were to be more conspiratorial, I started to think this.
02:06:20.000I almost wonder if maybe the Israelis are behind this.
02:06:24.000I wonder if they communicated to the Syrian military that they would get bombed like Hezbollah if they didn't surrender.
02:06:36.000Because there still is some weirdness about it.
02:06:39.000But I think what characterizes what has happened over the past two weeks is that this is more like a silent, bloodless coup than it is like some climactic final battle.
02:06:51.000And so the Assad regime was effectively bled and its allies abandoned it.
02:09:01.000They're ruling over a country that is mostly Sunni, and they are in the religious sectarian minority.
02:09:09.000And because they are a secular regime, this is the critical word that people are using, they're tolerant of minorities.
02:09:19.000Because it is not a fundamentalist, theocratic, Muslim, Sunni government, they're tolerant of the many minority groups in Syria, of which there are a lot.
02:09:32.000There is a significant Kurdish minority in the Northeast.
02:09:35.000There is a significant Druze minority in the South.
02:09:38.000There is a significant Christian minority and Alawite minority in the West.
02:09:44.000And so it's a secular government that is organized really on ideological and ethnic principles rather than a religion.
02:09:52.000And their principles are that they want to unite all the Arab countries.
02:09:58.000Their flag comes from their union with Egypt in the 1950s.
02:10:03.000The Syrians and the Egyptians were both fascist governments united under one government for a short time.
02:10:10.000And so that reflects the fact that they want to unite the Middle East as ethnic Arabs rather than as a particular variety of Muslims.
02:10:18.000And as a secular government, they are more tolerant of religious minorities like the Druze, like the Christians, like the Shiites.
02:10:30.000And so, HTS, the rebel group, which is now in control of the capital, which is now in control of most of Syria, it is completely different.
02:10:42.000The Syrian regime was socialist, ruled by minority Shiite.
02:10:47.000They were allied with Iran for that reason and other pragmatic reasons.
02:10:52.000Now it's ruled by Sunni fundamentalists.
02:10:55.000So they would be more aligned now with Saudi Arabia.
02:10:59.000And Afghanistan, then they would be aligned with Iran.
02:11:03.000So the alignment of Syria, if it is controlled by this group, is completely different.
02:11:09.000That's what makes this such a big deal.
02:11:11.000Syria being a pan-Arabist Ba'athist, fascist country was naturally aligned with Iran, was naturally aligned with the axis of resistance.
02:11:23.000Now, if under control of HTS would be aligned with Saudi Arabia, would be aligned with the United Arab Emirates, would be aligned with the United States, potentially.
02:13:20.000And using military weapons, military training and tactics, organized disciplined forces who defected from the Assad government, who received training, they fought against government forces and had a lot of successes in 2011, 2012. But eventually the character of the rebels began to change.
02:13:40.000The United States was arming these rebels.
02:14:18.000But that's the important details that the character of the revolution started to change.
02:14:23.000And so by about 2013, after two years of fighting, the rebels were no longer former military seeking a democratic republic, including...
02:14:32.000Increasingly, they were radical Muslims who wanted a Muslim government.
02:14:37.000And they were aligned then with Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra Front, other factions, and then eventually ISIS. And so then the United States began to reevaluate their support for the rebels.
02:14:51.000All the rebels that they had been giving weapons and training began to pledge allegiance to Al-Qaeda.
02:14:58.000The United States was arming these rebels who were talking about democracy and pluralism and liberalism and an organic democratic liberal revolution in the Middle East in the center of the region.
02:15:11.000And they all started pledging allegiance to Al-Qaeda immediately.
02:15:16.000And then ISIS sweeps in in April 2013. They cross the border from Iraq.
02:15:22.000And very quickly, many of these Islamist factions who then constitute the majority of the rebels who had been trained and armed by the United States, they started to pledge allegiance to ISIS. And they joined up with ISIS. ISIS swept through the region.
02:15:38.000They took Raqqa, which is a major city in Syria.
02:15:42.000And then suddenly, the nature of the conflict changed.
02:15:45.000And many of the former military started to conditionally work with ISIS, but also start negotiating with the government.
02:15:53.000And they said, you know, we don't really want ISIS to run Syria.
02:16:37.000The leader of HTS and one of the commanders of Al-Nusra Front, Joulani, was a leader in Al-Qaeda inside of Syria during the early days of the Syrian revolution.
02:16:51.000The problem is that many of the Al-Qaeda fighters had international ambitions.
02:16:57.000Al-Qaeda wanted a caliphate that stretched all over the Middle East.
02:17:02.000And they were very hard-line religiously and ideologically.
02:17:05.000Joulani, who was one of the key members in Al-Nusra Front, he and others inside of Al-Qaeda decided to break away from Al-Qaeda because they wanted to focus on Syria alone.
02:17:17.000Al-Qaeda wanted to fight, and they have operations in Yemen and in Iraq and in North Africa and in Syria alone.
02:17:27.000But the people like those that went on to form this group, people like the rebel leader who's currently in control of Syria, they wanted to focus only on Syria.
02:17:35.000So they broke away from Al-Qaeda and formed Al-Nusra Front.
02:18:32.000Idlib province in northern Syria was the last pocket of resistance after the Russians and Americans intervened against the rebels and against ISIS, and Assad was able to consolidate control.
02:18:49.0002017, the Americans abandon regime change.
02:18:52.000Around 2018, 2019, the al-Nusra front is given control over all of Idlib province, which is a state in the north, but that's the last pocket of resistance.
02:19:03.000Everything else is controlled by Assad or Turkey or by the American-backed Kurds.
02:19:09.000We'll talk about the Kurds in a moment because they're separate.
02:19:12.000Al-Nusra Front rebrands as Hayat al-Sham.
02:19:17.000They actually had a different name change and then later became Hayat al-Sham.
02:19:21.000But in a short period of time, they go through a series of rebrands and change their name to HTS around 2020. And they say that unlike Al-Qaeda, and in order to distance themselves from Al-Qaeda further...
02:19:34.000They changed their name and they say that they are willing to be pragmatic and work with Turkey and work with Western nations like the United States.
02:19:43.000They recognized that if they were too closely associated with ISIS or Al-Qaeda that they could not get Western support.
02:19:50.000They couldn't get Western money, couldn't get diplomatic recognition, couldn't get weapons, couldn't work with Syria.
02:21:01.000They start to work with Turkey as the occupying force inside of Idlib province, which borders Turkey.
02:21:10.000So they buy energy from Turkey and they do receive weapons from Turkey like drones and other things, but they're not controlled by them.
02:21:18.000And they are the group that for the past two years, the leader of the group, Julani, gave a speech two years ago and said, Aleppo is the goal.
02:21:27.000That is how we're going to change the strategic situation in Syria.
02:21:32.000This is the group that then invaded Aleppo.
02:21:36.000And again, for whatever reason, a decision was made in the Syrian army to stand down.
02:21:44.000Maybe they just simultaneously, spontaneously gave up.
02:21:48.000But this is the group that when they marched into Aleppo from Idlib, without many fighters, facilitated the collapse of the government.
02:21:56.000They entered Aleppo from Idlib, where they had been gathering strength, moved directly south and marched into the capital, and now they're in control.
02:22:07.000Like I said, he was literally a commander in al-Qaeda.
02:22:11.000And at one time, when fighting alongside al-Qaeda and then al-Nusra Front, was collaborating with commanders inside of ISIS.
02:22:19.000This is the group that now controls most of Syria.
02:22:24.000They control most of its major towns, including Aleppo, the second biggest city, and the capital city, Damascus, as well as the strategic cities of Homs and Hama, which have military resources.
02:22:37.000They control the intersection between Western Syria, which has port cities and the Alawite minority and the rest of the country.
02:22:46.000The question is, now that they have taken over, will this group rule?
02:22:53.000Will they hold elections in a few months and establish some sort of democratic governance which would be the realization again of the original goals of the revolution?
02:23:06.000Back in 2011, when the Free Syrian Army, the consolidated factions of the resistance, when they fought Assad, they dreamed of a pluralistic democratic republic with elections and tolerance for minority groups.
02:24:17.000Now that this small faction, because that's really what it is, they just happen to be the faction, not the strongest, not the most organized, not the best, but just for whatever reason happen to be the one.
02:25:14.000Because the first thing that has happened, and it has already happened so far, now that Syria is under the control of Sunni fundamentalists, is that Iran is out.
02:25:24.000Syria was critical in Iran's power projection in the region.
02:25:31.000If you look at a map of the Middle East, in order for Iran to reach Hezbollah inside of Lebanon on Israel's border, the only way for Iran to reach them is across a land bridge that connects Iran to Lebanon through Iraq, which is controlled by a security the only way for Iran to reach them is across a land bridge that connects Iran to Lebanon through
02:25:54.000So in the aftermath of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, in the aftermath of the Syrian civil war, Iran has been able to create a huge footprint inside both countries and take significant control over the security situation in both countries.
02:26:12.000The popular mobilization force inside of Iraq is officially under the national security services of the government.
02:26:21.000inside of Syria, the IRGC and Hezbollah and other Iranian militias bolster Assad's security forces inside of Syria.
02:26:31.000And And so with Iraq and Syria, Iran is able to supply Hezbollah with weapons.
02:26:39.000Now that Syria is under the control of a Sunni fundamentalist regime, the Iranians have already left.
02:26:45.000And that means that land bridge is severed.
02:26:48.000So that means that Iran is no longer connected to Hezbollah.
02:26:51.000And although Iran can supply Hezbollah in other ways, they could do it covertly, they could theoretically do it by air or by ship or something.
02:27:00.000It will be limited, constrained and extremely complicated.
02:27:06.000So this, after Israel's been bombing Hezbollah with thousands of airstrikes over the past couple of months, significantly diminishes Hezbollah and Iran's control over Lebanon.
02:27:19.000So the fall of Syria, it's not just the fall of Syria for Iran.
02:27:23.000It's also the fall of Lebanon for them as well.
02:27:26.000It means that Syria can no longer be used as a forward operating base of Iran.
02:27:32.000It cannot be used as a supply line for Hezbollah.
02:27:35.000And it means that Iran's influence over Syria and Lebanon is finished.
02:27:40.000And Hezbollah is significantly diminished because of this.
02:27:43.000That means that now Damascus and Beirut, Syria and Lebanon, realistically are more under the sphere of influence of Israel and Turkey, more so than Iran.
02:29:46.000Where they're not protected by Hezbollah, which is in the south.
02:29:49.000Or it might mean that Israel is securing that border crossing so that it cannot be used in any scenario as a supply line for Iran to resupply Hezbollah.
02:30:18.000Israel is also launching hundreds of airstrikes against Syrian military facilities.
02:30:23.000Now that the Assad government has collapsed, the big question is who inherits all of their facilities, infrastructure, and hardware.
02:30:33.000If HTS, if this successor to Al-Qaeda, if they're here to stay and running the government, that means they inherit Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons, they inherit his helicopters, planes, naval ships, ammunition, all of it.
02:30:50.000So Israel has been systematically carrying out airstrikes, hundreds of them, in just the past 48 hours.
02:30:56.000Allegedly, they've destroyed all of Assad's naval ships.
02:30:59.000They've destroyed the chemical weapons stockpiles, ammunition depots, helicopters, air bases, all of it.
02:31:07.000Israel is right now in the process of destroying all of the hardware so that whoever comes to power won't inherit any of it.
02:31:14.000And then therefore cannot pose a threat to Israel.
02:31:17.000Because of course, even if it's a Sunni fundamentalist government, there's no guarantee that they will necessarily be in the pocket of Israel with so much uncertainty.
02:32:16.000They are an Iranian ethnicity, and they're a big problem for all these countries.
02:32:23.000There are serious Kurdish separatist movements in Turkey.
02:32:28.000They're a big problem for the Turkish government.
02:32:30.000They were recently a big problem for the Iraqi government, and now they're going to be a big problem for the Syrian government.
02:32:37.000They have taken control of the Syrian territory northeast of the Euphrates River, which happens to also be where all of Syria's oil fields are.
02:32:50.000So during the fighting with ISIS, the United States came in.
02:32:54.000They were looking for rebels to back against Assad that weren't pledging allegiance to ISIS and Al-Qaeda, and the Kurds happened to be some of them.
02:33:03.000So the United States began to arm and train and actually sent in military personnel to fight alongside the Kurds.
02:33:11.000They reorganized the Kurdish forces into a group called the SDF, the Syrian Democratic Forces.
02:33:18.000Problem is the Syrian Democratic Forces are made up almost entirely of a group called the YPG or the People's Protection Unit.
02:33:27.000The YPG is the Syrian arm of a terrorist group called the Kurdish Workers' Party, and they're from Turkey.
02:33:36.000The Kurdish Workers' Party is a separatist group.
02:33:41.000They operate in southeastern Turkey, and they are responsible for many terrorist attacks in Istanbul and Ankara and other places.
02:33:49.000They back Kurdish separatists in Iraq, in Syria— The reason this is a big problem is because the Kurdish Workers' Party is the mortal enemy of Turkey.
02:34:01.000Turkey believes that the Kurdish Workers' Party, which operates in Turkey, is backing the People's Protection Unit, which is their wing in Syria, which has been renamed and reorganized into the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeastern Syria.
02:34:18.000Since around 2017 or 2018, the SDF has provided security for an autonomous government.
02:34:28.000They're calling it the Autonomous Administration of Northeastern Syria or Rojava.
02:34:33.000And they're effectively a separate state altogether.
02:34:36.000Northeast of the Euphrates, where the Kurds are in control of the security, even though they're not even the majority of the population there, they've established an autonomous government.
02:35:05.000That's what they're calling this polity.
02:35:07.000And it is totally backed by the United States.
02:35:10.000There's hundreds of American personnel officially there.
02:35:15.000Unofficially, there's probably thousands of mercenaries there.
02:35:18.000And again, this is where all the oil is.
02:35:20.000Now, the question is, after Assad falls, will the new government incorporate northeastern Syria into their government?
02:35:31.000Will they try to bring them back into the fold?
02:35:34.000Right now, or as of two weeks ago, they were autonomous and separate from the Assad government.
02:35:42.000When Assad was in control of Damascus and control of 60 percent of Syria, he was not in control of Rojava.
02:35:50.000They were autonomous, independent, Kurdish, credibly accused of ethnic cleansing, forced conscription, child kidnapping, and backed by the Americans.
02:36:02.000And that's where all the oil is, and they're getting a lot of revenue, billions of dollars a year from the oil.
02:36:08.000But now that there's a new government, that new government is going to want the oil.
02:36:13.000If it's HTS or whoever it is, they're going to want the oil.
02:37:05.000And if they don't go along with the government in Damascus, there will be a fight.
02:37:11.000So that is one of the emerging questions, is what will be done about Syria and Kurdistan?
02:37:18.000Will they join up with the Syrian national government or will they be partitioned away and either enjoy unofficial autonomy or will they declare independence as a state?
02:37:30.000But there's another complicating factor, which is Turkey.
02:37:34.000Turkey has intervened in Syria many times since the civil war in Syria started.
02:37:40.000They intervened in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020. They've conducted, I think it's in all, six cross-border operations.
02:37:49.000And when Turkey invades Syria, they fought ISIS initially, but they also fought the Kurds.
02:37:56.000They invaded in Euphrates Shield in 2016 and they drove ISIS away from their border, but they also fought the SDF.
02:38:05.000They also fought the Kurds and they have fought the Kurds repeatedly.
02:38:10.000In recent years, Erdogan, the president of Turkey, has promised to carve out a 30-kilometer buffer zone across all of Turkey's border with Syria.
02:38:20.000That runs through all of Rojava's northern border.
02:38:24.000So Turkey has pledged that they will invade Rojava and they will take 30 kilometers of their territory in the north to create a safety zone where they will then expel all the Syrian refugees inside of Turkey into that zone.
02:38:43.000So Turkey will never accept a Syrian Kurdish state if Rojava declares independence, if they say they're going to be an independent Syrian Kurdish country, Turkey would go to war to prevent that from happening.
02:38:59.000Moreover, Turkey will not even allow them to have what they have.
02:39:03.000Turkey is going to seize a significant portion of their territory along the border to prevent and basically sever Kurdistan inside of Turkey from Kurdistan inside of Syria.
02:39:14.000That way the Kurdish Workers' Party can't support the SDF and the SDF can't export their revolution inside of Turkey.
02:39:24.000By creating a safety zone, they will sever the two and cut them off from each other, probably prevent statehood, and they'll be able to exert control inside of that territory.
02:39:36.000Since the HTS offensive against the Assad regime, the SDF has made advances west of the Euphrates River and they've taken over the city of Manbij.
02:39:47.000In the past couple of days, Turkey and the SDF have been fighting intensely.
02:40:24.000Turkey has a massive native drone industry.
02:40:28.000And so if Turkey fights the SDF and gives it their all, they're going to win.
02:40:34.000The complicating factor is that, of course, the United States is backing the SDF. So if Turkey invades Rojava, if they invade northeastern Syria to fight the SDF, the Kurds, they're going to run right into American personnel.
02:40:48.000We've been backing the Kurds for years.
02:40:51.000So the question is, what will the Americans do?
02:40:55.000Will the Americans defend the Kurds from Turkey?
02:41:24.000What will Washington do about northeastern Syria?
02:41:27.000Damascus wants it for the oil and the territory, maybe in a federated structure with semi-autonomy.
02:41:34.000Turkey wants to take a lot of their land and they will refuse to accept any kind of statehood.
02:41:40.000Washington's goals are a little bit unclear, but this might make it a little bit more clear.
02:41:46.000Donald Trump is coming into the White House and Trump has a history of dealing with the Kurds.
02:41:52.000In 2019, one of Turkey's operations out of six was launched against the Syrian Kurds.
02:42:02.000Donald Trump was ridiculed for this and attacked for it, but he stayed out of it.
02:42:08.000Trump sought to withdraw all the Americans from Syria, and when Americans were caught in the crossfire, when they were in the way of invading Turkish forces inside of Kurdish-occupied Syria, Trump said, we will stay out of your way.
02:43:14.000They stayed out of it and they let the Iraqi government recapture 20% of Iraqi Kurdistan's territory and it led to the fall of the Iraqi government inside of Iraqi Kurdistan.
02:43:28.000They voted on a referendum for independence.
02:43:31.000It caused tensions with the Iraqi government in Baghdad.
02:43:35.000Baghdad invaded to take back some of the territory.
02:43:40.000So in 2017 in Iraq and in 2019 in Syria, when there were disputes between the Baghdad government and Iraqi Kurdistan, when there were disputes between Ankara and Syrian Kurdistan, Trump stayed out and let Baghdad take territory and let Ankara take territory from the Kurds.
02:44:02.000That would seem to suggest that Trump is not about to die on the hill of establishing an independent Syrian Kurdistan in the Northeast and would probably allow for a deal to be made.
02:44:17.000I imagine where Ankara will take territory, Damascus will bring them to heel and incorporate them into some sort of federal government and the United States may withdraw.
02:44:29.000The only thing that's in dispute is the oil, but since the Assad regime is out, and since we're not getting the oil, the oil revenue is going to the Kurds, I imagine there'll be no qualm about releasing the oil to the government in Damascus.
02:44:46.000So I think that might give us some evidence about where this is going.
02:44:51.000Now, the reason Turkey doesn't want a state, obviously, is because if the Kurds establish their own government, then they will use that as a base of operations to support independence in Turkey, which would result in a significant loss of territory.
02:45:06.000They would support it in Iraq and in Iran, and none of those governments support that.
02:45:13.000So unless there is some sort of significant development, I doubt that that will come to fruition.
02:45:18.000That is another one of the major questions.
02:45:21.000Some other outstanding questions about Syria.
02:45:23.000Now that there's a new government in Damascus, what is the fate of Russia's fleet?
02:45:28.000Russia has a significant naval base in Tardis, and they have an air base in Latakia.
02:45:35.000They have military outposts elsewhere.
02:45:37.000Russia's withdrawn its ships, but will the new Syrian government renew their lease with Russia?
02:45:44.000That is heavily dependent on who controls Syria, and it depends on how the government in Syria aligns.
02:45:52.000If it aligns with the United States, probably they won't renew it.
02:45:56.000If somehow they're aligned with these other powers, maybe they'll wind up renewing the lease.
02:46:37.000Question number two, what are Israel's ambitions?
02:46:40.000Israel's neutralizing their military hardware, but they also seem to be expanding outside the DMZ. Do they seek to control the border with Lebanon?
02:46:50.000Do they seek to expand further towards Damascus?
02:46:54.000Will they invade Lebanon through Syria?
02:46:58.000Will they hold that territory in perpetuity or for limited strategic objectives?
02:47:04.000Other question, what happens to northeastern Syria?
02:47:11.000Will they support a claim to independence?
02:47:13.000Will Turkey continue fighting, not just in Manbij, but to secure a 30-kilometer safety zone inside of Syrian Kurdistan?
02:47:22.000Will the government in Damascus accept the 3.5 million Syrian refugees inside of Turkey that Erdogan wants to get rid of?
02:47:31.000Will the new Syrian government renew the lease of Russia's naval and air base in western Syria?
02:47:36.000And then maybe the next question, the ultimate fate of Syria is how stable is this order?
02:47:44.000So in the foreseeable future, HTS will be tasked with consolidating Syria.
02:47:53.000And they will have to consolidate Druze militias and various other rebel factions in the south and They will have to consolidate the Kurds in the northeast.
02:48:03.000They will have to consolidate the minorities in the west.
02:48:38.000And so you could see a couple of different outcomes.
02:48:43.000After the revolution in Yemen and in Libya, the revolution in Yemen in 2012, the revolution in Yemen and Libya in 2011, the governments were partitioned.
02:48:55.000Today in Libya, you have competing claims in Tripoli and Tobruk.
02:49:01.000In Yemen, you have competing claims in the west and in the east of the country.
02:49:08.000Maybe the rebels will be unable to consolidate control and they'll be rival militias vying for power.
02:49:16.000Maybe there'll be a Sunni coalition and a Druze coalition and a Shiite coalition supported by officers and Kurds in the Northeast.
02:49:25.000And maybe it'll be a failed state and no one group will emerge and consolidate the old borders around Syria.
02:49:33.000Another outcome could be like the fate of Egypt.
02:49:36.000After Egypt's revolution, which deposed their military dictator, Hosni Mubarak, they had democratic elections and they voted in the Muslim Brotherhood.
02:49:47.000Just like HTS, Muslim Brotherhood is a radical Sunni Islamist group.
02:49:54.000Then in 2013, the military staged a coup.
02:49:57.000They overthrew Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood, democratically elected president, and they had another military dictatorship under LCC. So will that happen in Syria?
02:51:04.000The territory may never be reestablished.
02:51:07.000They may never have the same borders that they used to.
02:51:10.000They're being raped by outside powers like Israel, the United States, Turkey, Iran, Russia.
02:51:17.000And in the end, they're controlled by Al-Qaeda.
02:51:20.000In the end, they're being controlled by Al-Qaeda and ISIS. And the rich irony is that the Assad regime was Ba'athist, which is ideologically the same as Saddam Hussein.
02:51:34.000And one of the charges for why we intervened in Iraq in the first place, why we're even in the Middle East, is because of 9-11.
02:52:15.000Even though we used to support Saddam Hussein against Iran.
02:52:19.000Then we support the overthrow of Syria, even though we used to work with Syria.
02:52:27.000And then Syria falls under the control of ISIS. We're funding the rebels who become ISIS. We defeat ISIS. And then ultimately Al-Qaeda comes to power in Syria.
02:52:38.000And so when all is said and done, we have achieved nothing.
02:55:09.000the only way that this is a victory is because it is a huge defeat for russia that is the benefit for the united states it is a humiliation and a major defeat for russia and arguably this puts us in a position where we can draw down the war in ukraine without losing face arguably this is the case but of course everything is connected and so here's the here's the big picture the
02:56:28.000Israel has a ceasefire with Hezbollah and they're withdrawing from Lebanon.
02:56:32.000They have severed Iran from Hezbollah.
02:56:35.000And it looks like with Syria defeated, Hezbollah is going the way of Hamas.
02:56:39.000North Gaza is going to be ethnically cleansed.
02:56:42.000Israel will be focused on fighting a greatly diminished Iran and expecting Western backing.
02:56:49.000Iran has been revealed to be a paper tiger and no doubt will lose support from Russia and China.
02:56:54.000The United States is looking to make a deal in Ukraine, which will have to involve territorial concessions to Russia, demilitarizing Ukraine, forbidding NATO membership.
02:57:06.000But both of these things must be accomplished in order for Trump to truly confront China.
02:57:13.000The threat of China invading Taiwan and the threat posed by China in the long term in the Pacific.
02:57:19.000This has been the unrealized goal of the American government for a decade.
02:57:24.000The so-called pivot to Asia initiated by Obama.
02:57:27.000But we have been bogged down in Eastern Europe, fighting Russia over Ukraine and bogged down in the Middle East in the proxy war between Israel and Iran.
02:57:37.000And so it will be the task of the incoming Trump administration to extricate the United States from the Middle East and from the war in Ukraine so that we can adequately address the China problem, which is arguably a legitimate problem.
02:57:54.000And, you know, Obama, Trump and Biden all made efforts toward that with the TTP, the TTIP, with the AUKUS agreement, the sub agreement, bolstering the quad, you know, winning some of these other governments like the Philippines back into our orbit.
02:58:10.000that But Trump cannot fully commit to that.
02:58:16.000Our island chain in the defense of the Pacific if we're bogged down in a proxy war with Iran.
02:58:26.000So China and Russia will attempt to make it hurt for us in Iran.
02:58:32.000We're going to have to ratchet up the pressure in Ukraine by escalating.
02:58:36.000That seems to be the only language that And we're going to have to restrain Israel to prevent regime change in Iran, which would just blow up the whole region and demand a serious confrontation from the US military.
02:58:52.000So if I were to make predictions, I would say that Trump is going to come in with fire and fury like he did the last time.
02:59:02.000He's going to come in with fire and fury like he did the last time to reestablish deterrence.
02:59:08.000Contrary to what everybody is saying, people say Trump is going to come in and make peace.
02:59:13.000I think that's what he intends to do, but first he will make war.
02:59:17.000He will look for a target that he can hit that will not complicate matters, but it will demonstrate to the world that he's serious.
02:59:32.000He's going to do something provocative in the first few months.
02:59:35.000He's going to consult with his advisors.
02:59:38.000He's going to come in because the first step in the negotiation with Russia, China, Iran, Israel, Ukraine, all of them, is to demonstrate that he is in control, that America is willing to fight it to the end.
02:59:50.000And to do that, he's going to need a victory right out of the gate.
02:59:55.000And I think he's not going to withdraw the Americans from Syria right away because that will look like capitulation.
03:00:01.000He's not going to give Russia everything they want right away because that will look like capitulation.
03:00:06.000And you can't capitulate on two things before you try to exert maximum pressure on Iran and China or deter China.
03:00:14.000You have to exercise force and then make a deal with concessions.
03:00:20.000I think he's going to do something provocative against the axis of resistance, and maybe that includes, I think, the Houthis because we're already at war with them and we've been failing.
03:00:29.000Maybe Hezbollah, maybe does something unrelated like goes after the cartels, but this will consume a lot of his attention.
03:00:37.000And then I think he'll have to make some serious, incredible threats against Russia.
03:00:41.000He'll at the minimum have to threaten something extraordinary, if not do something extraordinary, to make Russia bend the knee.
03:00:49.000And I don't think Russia's going to go for that.
03:01:13.000It's a wild card what they're doing right now in Syria and what their goals are for Lebanon.
03:01:18.000But it seems that they will try to get the situation in Lebanon and Gaza and the West Bank further under control and then look to a confrontation with Iran.
03:01:26.000I don't think Trump will be successful in restraining them.
03:01:29.000If anything, he's going to reinstate sanctions.
03:02:11.000This is not, hey, idiot, every dumbass is looking at Trump visiting France for the reopening of the Notre Dame and they're saying, oh, it's good to see Trump as a world leader again.
03:02:23.000Okay, why did Trump visit France first?
03:11:29.000You have some, like, clean-cut former Marine subway hero versus, like, a political terrorist who labels his bullets, kills the CEO, and is, like, dropping videos and sub stacks with riddles in them.
03:11:46.000That's pretty funny and it's all happening in New York.
03:12:41.000Sending this chat before the show start.
03:12:43.000So if you address this during, sorry, but with the Assad regime falling, just how drastically will this negatively affect Russia over the next decade?
03:12:50.000Well, it doesn't affect them directly so much.
03:12:55.000Like I said, the indirect, other than the loss of the base potentially, but the indirect consequence is that this hurts BRICS as an alternative system.
03:13:04.000Right now, there is no other superpower that can provide for the security needs of other countries.
03:14:08.000Russian credibility has taken a huge hit.
03:14:14.000And if they are supposed to be the military power that underlies the BRICS alternative system, took a serious devastating blow with the fall of the Assad regime.
03:14:31.000It's as frustrating to see the online Catholic sphere constantly attacking you.
03:14:34.000I am a cradle Catholic that fell away from the church, but you brought me back to the faith.
03:14:37.000I'm sure you have brought hundreds or more to Catholicism, and I know for a fact that some are even becoming priests because of you and this movement.
03:15:32.000You've shown how to carry yourself with composure when you're facing this machine, this American judicial system that cannibalizes our people.
03:15:46.000But I'm going to tell you this, and I'm going to say it loud and clear.
03:15:51.000Let the marchers march and let the steppers step.
03:15:55.000Let the marchers march and let the steppers step.
03:16:02.000You want to do something about this verdict?
03:16:04.000Then you go into your neighborhood and you promote black unity.
03:16:14.000This system protects every other group except for the very people that built this country.
03:16:24.000Dude, if you just translate that, he sounds like a white nationalist.
03:16:28.000Every group That comes here, gets privileges, gets benefits, except for the very people whose fingerprints are on the bricks that built this country.
03:17:09.000Why didn't Netanyahu say that October 7th was like 10-9-11-S? Because, so that in about 50 years, he can say that over 100,000 people died that day.
03:17:19.000Have you seen this trend of boomers videoing planes at night and spreading rumors that they are Chinese drones disguised as planes mapping out military bases?
03:20:08.000These raw milk and meat people are retarded.
03:20:10.000Someone at my parents' work had eaten a store, bought steak a little too rare, and he developed Kreutzfeldt-Jakob disease, mad cow disease, and is now set to die in the next few months.
03:20:47.000Jews are eating filet mignon and they're watching you drink raw eggs over raw meat, drinking raw milk and getting sick and dying and they think it's funny.
03:21:28.000I spoke to Jonathan GF40 Boys, Fish Tank, Vampire Blood Games, and Ice Poseidon Hunger Games fame in an X space today, and he expressed interest in being your running mate in 2028. Oh, yeah?
03:21:36.000With the tragic passing of John Pork, would you consider giving him a shot?
03:21:48.000By the way, who's this guy, Charles Johnson?
03:21:50.000I had to argue with this idiot on Soleim in Space last week, almost 15, about how someone like you can't depend on the system or government to protect you.
03:25:24.000He sings about being considered a criminal just because he utters words in a song and that people think he will do the things he says in his songs like killing hoes, while in reality he's just joking and that people became so obsessed with him they even want to see his dick.
03:27:26.000I'll be on the top of the Trans-Siberian Railroad in snow, climbing on top of the train cars, fighting off henchmen, throwing them into the furnace on the train, disconnecting the rail cars, I'll be on the locomotive, sailing in to victory.
03:27:47.000I'll be hanging on to a pole, hanging off of it.
03:29:29.000But then she gets killed, you know, the comic relief ends, you know, just when you think it's over, just when you think we ride off into the sunset, bullet right through her face, right between the eyes, she gets assassinated by my arch nemesis, Keith Woods, my mortal enemy.
03:29:50.000Just when I think we're about to live happily ever after.
03:32:57.000You know, he comes in and like a windbreaker, he comes into a windbreaker that says like NSA or I don't know, geospatial intelligence, something you never heard of counterterrorism unit.
03:34:50.000Farron sent $20 with Syria's collapse.
03:34:52.000The corridor to transport weapons from Iran to Hezbollah is compromised.
03:34:55.000Access of resistance is very vulnerable now.
03:34:57.000Do you think Iran will seriously consider testing a nuke as a show of deterrence before Trump is inaugurated if they feel they are cornered?
03:35:56.000remorse for the christians who are going to be killed is frustrating to see when we literally supported their people in gaza dot do these people even have any love for us only care for themselves they do not awoken american sent five dollars there seems to be so much action during this lame duck period what do you make of it it's all in anticipation of a sea change in u.s policy nick fuentes sent 100 this is literally the smartest and funniest show on the internet well maybe not the smartest thank you nick rachel super informative and actually very aesthetic Wow, that's great.
03:42:52.000Like, because that's the only concept of knowledge that you have, is that someone else pre-packaged your information for you and spoon-fed it to you in a TED Talk.
03:44:26.000would taking out Iran not be part of pivoting to the Pacific considering China buys a lot of oil from Iran from the POV of the China Hawks you don't understand anything Texas Groy percent $5 Woodrow Wilson in 1914 says he won enter World War I FDR in 1939 says he won enter World War II Trump in 2024 says he won enter World War III retard Retard.
03:44:47.000Chicago fell off when they got rid of Kitty Land.
03:45:18.000Funniest thing about the gun ban in Canada, like the previous gun bans, is that the Israeli devore rifle will still be available to the public.
03:46:00.000We are sending hundreds of billions of dollars weapons to SDF and they just shot down our $30 million Reaper UAV today and they endanger our NATO ally Turkey.
03:46:06.000Why do you think our government do this nonsense?
03:48:07.000W. I'll check out that thread, but that sounds like BS. Why do you think that we should deport immigrants that have worked hard and assimilated and that have been here for 20 plus years and is that realistic?
03:48:29.000Uh, cause they came here illegally and they gotta go back and yeah, with political will.
03:48:33.000Why are you a fucking illegal immigrant?