00:09:23.000But we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means.
00:09:40.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
00:10:59.000Read as many books as you can, learn a language, learn an instrument, get the best grades you can, get into a good school, and just don't mess around.
00:11:07.000You turn like 18, 20, and then it just goes at light speed.
00:11:12.000And if you are wasting time, years will go by.
00:11:16.000And you will wake up when you're 25 years old and say, I thought I would have accomplished more by now.
00:11:21.000Why am I still stuck in the same place?
00:11:24.000Let time be your ally by working every single day at what you think you want to be doing in 20 years.
00:11:39.000The servant who received five talents invested it and earned five more.
00:11:44.000The one who received two talents also invested wisely and earned two more.
00:11:49.000But the servant who received one talent went and dug a hole in the ground and hid his master's money.
00:11:57.000When the master returned, the servant with five talents said, Master, you gave me five and look, I've gained five more.
00:12:05.000The master replied, Well done, good and faithful servant.
00:12:09.000Because you have been faithful with little, I will put you in charge of much.
00:12:14.000The servant with two talents said, Master, you gave me two, and look, I've gained two more.
00:12:21.000The master said the same, Well done, good and faithful servant.
00:12:25.000You have been faithful with little, I will trust you with much.
00:12:31.000But the servant with one talent said, Master, I was afraid, so I hid your money in the ground.
00:13:22.000Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
00:13:26.000If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
00:13:34.000People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
00:13:43.000Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
00:13:46.000But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
00:14:26.000After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
00:15:24.000When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
00:30:28.000If Israel controls that region, How rich, how powerful can they become?
00:30:34.000My issue with Iranian regime change is that we are creating an Israeli superpower that not even we will be able to restrain.
00:30:43.000Look at how they have used us like an instrument.
00:30:46.000They stole a nuclear arsenal from us, they got all of this military technology from us, we defeated their foes, and now we have essentially handed this to them.
00:30:56.000Now they're ready to cut the umbilical cord and become their own superpower.
00:31:00.000We endured the cost, we paid the money, our soldiers died, our country burned so that.
00:31:05.000A Israeli superpower could be born, and now our country will be in the wreckage.
00:31:23.000Alright, 15 seconds, guidance is internal.
00:37:19.000Remember when I grabbed my shit, I said, no buys, I'm dippin.
00:37:23.000Remember when I said I changed, I'm new, I'm here, I listen.
00:37:27.000I know all this shit's so mean, but I'm really tryna fix it, fix it.
00:37:30.000You can go side to side, it's white shot, I assume you're lookin' at me You can go low with a high, it's tough, I'm treatin' like nobody else can see But I could be mean tonight, but that's not what I'm tryna be I could be mean tonight, no I'm tryna be nice I'm tryna be nice I'm tryna be, I'm trying to be nice.
00:43:05.000Ago, people said, I just can't even imagine Trump bringing us to war in Iran for regime change.
00:44:29.000Pace, I be from the back, she gripping them covers like she on her last leg She look like she belong on a cover this ho,
00:44:43.000getting covered in everything I'm about to take a banana, but she is not getting wet in rain If he wants to interview Nick Fuente, get the word out It's undeniable.
00:46:40.000Yeah, fuck what you heard of me I know that you heard of me No, I can't fuck with you No, I can't rock with you No, no, I can't talk to you That was on my body when I walked through the city lights on We paved the way with our corpses.
00:47:05.000Groypers and all the alt-riders that got banned All the alt-riders that got slandered Even people that killed themselves Our corpses paved the way for you now to walk over.
00:47:17.000And you can't give us acknowledgement.
00:49:26.000They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
00:49:33.000If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
00:49:51.000Comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
00:57:52.000The United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
00:57:58.000To consign the American empire to destruction while they look forward to a golden age, while they look forward to a century of empire and domination.
00:58:08.000Maybe we can't stop it, but I'm not going along with it.
00:58:46.000When Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel, which started the Yom Kippur War on October 6th, 1973, almost 50 years exactly before October 7th, Israel was almost overrun.
00:58:59.000And the United States was reluctant to provide them with the military support that they needed to defend themselves.
00:59:05.000So, the prime minister of Israel, Golda Meir, called up Nixon and said, If you don't help us, we will nuke Syria and Egypt.
00:59:48.000We're like the SWAT team of Free Thought, and I go in with this battle ram in the door, and then they come in with these laser beams and have that information.
01:00:13.000Groyper dating app, do, AF legal team to represent Groyper's who are fired from work or kicked out of school for being a Groyper.
01:03:03.000The line himself would learn to The line would not care if his line died The line would not care if his line died the lion himself would accept such a deal.
01:15:03.000So it's totally fair for us to recognize that the countries around Russia, no, we shouldn't be invading or torturing them or oppressing them.
01:15:12.000And big picture, holy smokes, you do not want the two largest powers in the world, apart from the United States, to get together and align against us.
01:15:21.000Why do you support Israel against Hamas, for example?
01:15:25.000Why do you support America giving them billions of dollars?
01:39:34.000Iran has reclosed the Strait of Hormuz.
01:39:37.000The United States has reimposed its blockade of the Strait, and intensive bombing has resumed on both sides.
01:39:45.000Iran is bombing shipping in the Strait.
01:39:47.000We, in turn, are bombing Iran's southwestern coast for the most part.
01:39:53.000And now Iran is launching missiles and drones and other projectiles at almost every Gulf country Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, even Oman.
01:40:05.000Was hit by Iran, which was a bit of a surprise.
01:40:08.000Iran is also attacking bases in Jordan and Kuwait as well.
01:40:12.000So you could say the war is fully back on.
01:40:15.000And to that end, Trump has informed Congress as of July 7th, I believe, that we are officially in the war again.
01:40:26.000And this time there's no end in sight.
01:40:28.000Where this is going, Trump said in an interview with Fox News today that if Iran does not come back to the table, And negotiate about opening up the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program, then we are, in fact, going to begin bombing their civilian infrastructure, including bridges, transportation infrastructure, and maybe most importantly, the electrical infrastructure and their energy sector.
01:41:13.000The other thing we're going to talk about related to all this, there's a couple of other things which I want to highlight that not a lot of people are talking about.
01:41:21.000And the first, aside from all that, is that the war has not only resumed, but it is also widening.
01:41:28.000There is now a third front opening up in the conflict.
01:41:34.000You have the front in the Persian Gulf, and it is over the Persian Gulf where the fighting is happening.
01:41:40.000Iran is launching missiles at shipping in the Strait, and they're launching missiles at the Gulf countries on the western side of the Gulf.
01:41:49.000The United States, from its position in the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait and the Peninsula, is doing airstrikes on Iran.
01:42:37.000Because it signals that Iran may be resupplying the Houthis with potentially rockets, drones, and missiles in a bid to supply the Houthis with the means to shut down shipping in the Red Sea, in the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
01:42:52.000Which is on the opposite side of the peninsula as the Persian Gulf.
01:42:57.000So, in an attempt to prevent that plane from landing, Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike on this airport, and they're now implementing a shutdown.
01:43:06.000They've shut down the airspace over Yemen to prevent Iran from establishing an air bridge with Yemen to shut down that opposite strait in the Red Sea.
01:43:16.000Well, now the Houthis are launching rocket attacks on Saudi Arabia at a Saudi civilian airport and a Saudi airbase.
01:43:25.000Now, those projectiles were shot down, but this is the first time, I think, since 2021 or 2022, when the Saudis and the Houthis were officially in a conflict and were fighting each other.
01:43:37.000So, this is now opening up a third front in the conflict.
01:43:41.000You got the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait, you got the invasion in Lebanon, and you have the potential closure of the Bab el Mandeb and a low boil conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
01:43:53.000And then finally, where is JD Vance in all this?
01:43:58.000This is the domestic angle, which we talked a little bit about at the beginning of the war.
01:44:02.000This Iran war is an albatross around the Republicans, Trump, Vance, in the midterms in the 2028 election.
01:44:10.000This war is such a catastrophic failure because it is a strategic defeat, because it's leading to an energy crunch, which leads to inflation, which leads to an economic collapse, a recession.
01:44:24.000It is going to hurt the Republicans that were involved.
01:44:56.000And if you've been following this so called peace process, the diplomacy, If you've been paying attention, JD Vance has thrown himself in front of the diplomatic process.
01:45:08.000He is the one that, for example, was supposed to lead the delegation in Islamabad, and he led the delegation in Switzerland, and he returned to Qatar a week after that.
01:45:19.000Because I'm sure he thinks, and the people in his camp think, that maybe there's no excuse for not talking Trump out of the war.
01:45:30.000But if he can receive the credit for ending the war, Then maybe the voters will be more understanding.
01:45:37.000Maybe then he'll be able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
01:45:41.000Maybe he'll be able to take credit for solving the catastrophe, even if he wasn't able to prevent it.
01:45:47.000Well, now that this MOU has collapsed, he may be the biggest loser in all of it, more than Israel, more than Iran, more than the Gulf countries, more than Trump, more than even the United States.
01:45:57.000Vance may be the biggest loser in this development out of everybody because, assuredly, he will, politically speaking, he will hang because the MOU fell apart in the way that it did.
01:46:09.000And if the war doesn't end soon, it's going to be catastrophic, not just for the country, but also then for his political prospects in 27 and 28.
01:46:18.000It's a lot of ground to cover, a lot of moving pieces, a lot of different developments, and it keeps getting more complicated, which I like.
01:46:50.000There's another big story today that ICE is no longer going to carry out traffic stops anymore.
01:46:58.000ICE has apparently killed two more people in their traffic stops.
01:47:03.000They try to apprehend illegal immigrants, they stop them in their vehicles.
01:47:06.000The illegals flee, they open fire, they kill the guy.
01:47:09.000This happened in Houston, Texas, it happened in Maine.
01:47:13.000And so now, at the behest of Susan Collins, the worst Republican in the Senate, Now, ICE says they're not going to do traffic stops anymore.
01:47:27.000They're not doing raids in people's houses.
01:47:30.000They're not doing patrols in the streets.
01:47:32.000They're not surging personnel to the major cities.
01:47:35.000Now, they're not even going to do traffic stops.
01:47:38.000So, where are they actually going to pick up the illegals then?
01:47:42.000If you can't get the illegals at the job sites, at their houses, in their cars, if you can't pick them up on the street when you're doing patrols, where are you going to get them?
01:48:09.000We're thoroughly into the second term, nearing the halfway point, allocated $150 billion overall for DHS and border security.
01:48:19.000And they bought the warehouses, they hired the personnel, they trained up the existing personnel, they have an executive order regime, they've done all these things.
01:48:27.000And now it's just simply a lack of willingness.
01:48:31.000Before they made these arguments well, we don't have the money, we don't have the infrastructure, we don't have warehouses and detention space, we don't have the personnel.
01:48:41.000The personnel we have don't have the training, all these excuses.
01:48:47.000All the money you could ask for, so many warehouses, they're selling half of them, 10,000 additional personnel, they're trained up, legal regimes in place.
01:49:09.000And case in point, now they won't even pull them over at a traffic stop because too many of them are running away and getting shot and killed.
01:49:16.000So if we have time, we'll get into that.
01:51:27.000Sneeko goes to Saudi Arabia and he goes, Well, if you want me to leave the country so bad, I'll do it if Aiden Ross refunds all the gambling addicts in America.
01:51:40.000He goes, I'll leave the country, but Elon Musk has to debate me.
01:52:18.000In order for these fucking brown clowns to ever even consider leaving the rich and glorious United States of America, they want to make a deal.
01:52:30.000Okay, okay, I'll leave America, but first, ain't no but first.
01:52:35.000The only but first is goats and camels in the desert, mudslime, okay?
01:52:41.000It ain't no but first, we gotta do this.
01:53:07.000All you do is glaze every other country that you would never live in.
01:53:11.000You would never, we would have to drag you out of here by your fucking nightgown.
01:53:17.000We would have to drag your sorry black ass out of this country by your fucking dress, by your nightgown, screaming and crying all the way about the kids in Gaza and Morocco and whatever.
01:57:14.000Now, the big developments from this weekend, we're going to go through the timeline just since Friday.
01:57:21.000The memorandum of understanding has collapsed.
01:57:24.000The U.S. has resumed bombing heavily Iran, mostly on their southwestern coast bordering the Persian Gulf.
01:57:34.000Iran has reclosed the Strait of Hormuz.
01:57:36.000The United States has reimposed its blockade of the strait on our side from the Gulf of Oman.
01:57:43.000In retaliation, Iran has resumed its missile attacks against the GCC countries.
01:57:49.000And now Trump is threatening that next week we're going to escalate and begin bombing Iran's electrical infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and their energy sector, their oil and gas refineries, oil and gas fields, maybe even Karg Island as well, which is where they handle all the actual exporting, where they unload it onto the ships.
01:58:09.000So, These are some of the major developments.
01:58:13.000I want to talk a little bit about the timeline here.
01:58:16.000First, we'll read this article from the New York Times.
01:58:19.000We'll explain the timeline a little bit.
01:58:21.000And then we'll talk about where this is going.
01:58:23.000So, this is from the Times talking about the resumption of the war.
01:58:26.000It says, quote, President Trump on Tuesday reassumed a belligerent posture toward Iran that echoed a stance at the war's outset, threatening to destroy civilian infrastructure and refusing to rule out a ground invasion.
01:58:40.000Mr. Trump told Fox News that the U.S. military. Would continue to strike Iran very hard until Iran agreed to negotiate.
01:58:47.000Mr. Trump's comments came hours after he walked back a plan he had announced on Monday to charge fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in return for providing security.
01:58:58.000But he pushed ahead with a naval blockade of Iranian ports that the military said began at 4 p.m. Eastern Time today.
01:59:06.000U.S. forces carried out new rounds of attacks on Iran throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday and a return to the kind of intensive bombing campaign that characterized the start of the war more than four months ago.
01:59:19.000In the Fox interview, Mr. Trump suggested that the U.S. military would strike targets, including bridges and power plants.
01:59:26.000He also again refused to rule out deploying ground troops, saying sometimes you need a ground campaign, but that you have other people that would do the ground campaign for us.
01:59:38.000And presumably, that could only mean two things either that means the Kurds, who are in northern Iraq, that would cross over the border, andor it could also include the Gulf countries like the Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
01:59:53.000It says oil prices soared after the latest strikes by American and Iranian forces, one of the biggest daily jumps since the start of the war.
02:00:00.000The number of vessels transiting the waterway also plummeted.
02:00:04.000Later in the day, Iranian state media said American forces had fired on Keshem Island, the site of strategic military installations.
02:00:12.000U.S. military confirmed carrying out strikes both early and later in the day, but did not specify targets.
02:00:17.000The Iranian military said it had launched strikes at U.S. military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
02:00:23.000Officials from all three countries said the attacks were being intercepted.
02:00:29.000So let's talk about the MOU and why it collapsed and how it collapsed.
02:00:34.000So, like I said, tomorrow, Wednesday, will be four weeks since the MOU was signed.
02:00:41.000And we talked extensively about the MOU.
02:00:43.000And what it sought to do was establish a short term truce that would do two things end hostilities immediately and open up the Strait of Hormuz to shipping on both sides.
02:00:54.000And when I say both sides, I mean that Iran will cease its drone and missile strikes on outgoing shipping.
02:01:01.000So that's tankers carrying oil from the GCC nations out into the Indian Ocean and to the world.
02:01:09.000And then on the other side, the United States will lift its blockade of Iranian ports, inbound and outbound, of all goods.
02:01:20.000Iran has ports on the Persian Gulf, they have an export import based economy, and the United States was using its navy.
02:01:28.000To attack any ships destined for Iran or leaving from Iran out through the strait.
02:01:33.000So, those are the two things that the ceasefire does.
02:01:37.000It ends the hostilities, it opens the strait, and it paves the way for a 60 day period to negotiate the root causes of the conflict, which is Iran's nuclear program and the sanctions regime against Iran because of their nuclear program.
02:01:51.000Now, as we discussed for weeks, the reason the MOU failed is because of some discrepancies in how we understand both of those items.
02:02:03.000Iran insisted that the ceasefire extend to Lebanon.
02:02:06.000But the United States was not prosecuting the war in Lebanon.
02:02:34.000So that's one serious reason it failed.
02:02:37.000Iran, from the very beginning, Accused us of being in breach of the deal because we were unable or unwilling to compel Israel to participate in this ceasefire.
02:02:49.000Number two, concerning the Strait of Hormuz, the provision inside the MOU governing the Strait was unfortunately not specific enough.
02:02:58.000It said that Iran and Oman would jointly govern the Strait with consultation of the other Gulf countries.
02:03:09.000That would be implemented and what exactly that entailed.
02:03:12.000And really, the real reason this thing fell apart is that Iran began to insist that what the MOU meant is that they would formally and legally and officially control the strait in perpetuity.
02:03:25.000They believed that this MOU gave them license to effectively annex the strait, and any commercial ship transiting the strait would thus need Iran's permission to go through.
02:03:39.000The reason the United States can't stand for this is because if Iran owns it and if commercial shipping can't go through without Iran's permission, eventually Iran might say, you need to pay them to get permission and they can establish a toll system.
02:03:54.000And so maybe not during the life of this deal, but once the deal is completed, if Iran has this exclusive right with Oman to control the strait, then eventually they're going to be able to exercise a legal right to determine which ships go in and out, which is problematic in and of itself.
02:04:12.000But also, they could make it conditioned upon paying a toll to Tehran.
02:04:17.000And so these were the real reasons the MOU collapsed.
02:04:20.000A couple of weeks ago, Iran said, in order for any shipping to go through the strait, you need our permission.
02:04:28.000In response to this, the United States began coordinating with Oman.
02:04:32.000And Oman, for those that don't know, is the country on the southern side of the strait.
02:04:36.000Iran is on the northern side of the strait, Oman is on the southern side.
02:04:42.000The United States, Oman opened up a secondary route through the strait, which hugs their coast.
02:04:48.000And whereas Iran was telling all these companies, you need our permission to go through, you need to tell us in advance, you need to give us all your information, wait for our permission, Oman said, we're open for business.
02:05:01.000You can transit this separate route on our coast without Iran's permission, without paying money, without any conditions.
02:05:09.000And so very soon, almost all the shipping started to go through this southern route.
02:05:13.000For free without Iran's permission in a completely unmanaged and uncontrolled way.
02:05:18.000Iran rightly perceived that as a threat to their negotiating leverage.
02:05:23.000If there's a secondary route that Iran doesn't control, then that means that they cannot close the strait at will.
02:05:29.000This undermines their leverage and their negotiating position.
02:05:33.000Because, of course, how they're able to impose conditions on the United States is their threat to close the strait at any given time at their discretion.
02:05:42.000So, Iran began launching drone and missile attacks against ships that tried to move through this southern route on the coast of Oman without their permission.
02:05:55.000In response, the United States was bombing Iran.
02:05:58.000This was the situation that precipitated the collapse of the MOU.
02:06:02.000It was the secondary route opening up, and it was the Iranian leadership, the Council of Jurists, and the Supreme Leader that said, This cannot stand.
02:06:11.000If we allow the second route to open up, we have no leverage and we don't control the strait, and that's strategically unacceptable.
02:06:28.000Commercial shipping cannot move unless they get permission from us.
02:06:34.000So on Friday, Trump gave an ultimatum to Iran.
02:06:38.000Trump put out on True Social that if Iran did not allow shipping to go through this Omani shipping route, if they did not apologize for attacking shipping in the Strait, if they did not acknowledge that this was in breach of the MOU, and if they did not commit to opening up the Strait in the future without permission and for free, then the United States would resume the bombing campaign.
02:07:09.000No apology, no acknowledgement that they were in breach of the agreement, no commitment to refrain from attacking shipping again.
02:07:16.000As a matter of fact, they formally reclosed the Strait and resumed the attacks on shipping in that secondary route in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz.
02:07:26.000So, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and tonight, the United States has been bombing Iran's southwestern coast.
02:07:36.000And as of today, although it was announced yesterday, The United States has reimposed its blockade of the Strait.
02:07:43.000And so, again, Iran has shut down the Strait now completely.
02:07:48.000Nothing is allowed to go through the Strait.
02:07:49.000If they attempt to, Iran is attacking this.
02:07:52.000This is how they're enforcing their closure of the Strait.
02:07:55.000And on our side, we're using our Navy in the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait, to attack any Iranian linked shipping, any and all Iranian linked shipping, to close the Strait to any friendly commercial shipping that goes to or from Iran.
02:08:13.000In response to our attacks on Iran's southwestern coast, now Iran is attacking all of the Gulf countries with drones and missiles.
02:08:22.000They're launching drone and missile attacks against Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, as well as Jordan, specifically targeting U.S. military facilities.
02:08:33.000So the U.S. Navy's fifth fleet is in Bahrain.
02:08:41.000And other ISR infrastructure in the Gulf countries, bases in the Gulf countries, in Jordan, Iran is targeting all of that infrastructure.
02:08:50.000Now we are formally in exactly the same state of war as we were before the original ceasefire in April, which is to say, very heavy, around the clock U.S. bombing of Iran, Iran launching drones and missiles at our infrastructure in all of the Gulf countries, and a Strait of Hormuz, which is officially closed on both sides.
02:09:16.000Next week, because there's some key developments today.
02:09:19.000Trump said to Fox News that if Iran does not come back to the negotiating table and open up the strait and even begin to talk about nuclear concessions, Trump says that next week we're going to escalate the bombing against their civilian infrastructure.
02:09:35.000Transportation infrastructure like bridges and airports, electrical infrastructure like power plants, and oil infrastructure, energy infrastructure, oil and gas fields, oil and gas refineries, Karg Island, where they export all the oil and gas.
02:09:51.000He said, but that's going to happen next week if Iran doesn't negotiate right now.
02:09:56.000He says, we're going to keep bombing tonight, tomorrow, the day after that, the day after that, which is the rest of this week.
02:10:02.000He said, but next week is when it gets really bad.
02:10:07.000Now, I don't know if that's a serious threat.
02:10:09.000In many ways, we're right back to square one because this is exactly the same pattern, which is we're bombing Iran, they're bombing the Gulf, they closed the strait, and Trump is threatening that if they don't give us key concessions, then we're going to escalate in a real way.
02:10:25.000So far, we have avoided the civilian population and civilian infrastructure.
02:10:29.000Trump has always used that as a bluff.
02:10:32.000That's always been the threat to escalate.
02:10:34.000How do we increase the pressure and leverage against Iran?
02:10:39.000We choke and strangle their economy by shutting down those lifelines, which is transportation, electricity, and maybe most importantly, energy.
02:10:49.000You take every one of those things or one of those things offline, and their economy collapses.
02:10:56.000And not only does the economy collapse, But then it becomes impossible to rebuild.
02:11:02.000You can't rebuild oil and gas infrastructure in a week, in a month, in a year.
02:11:10.000And the same goes for bridges, and the same goes for this other stuff.
02:11:13.000It's more permanent, and it also has an effect on public order.
02:11:18.000If you start destroying bridges and the actual money making sectors of Iran's economy, then pretty soon Iran struggles with its domestic security service.
02:11:30.000To pay its police and military, to maintain civil order and control of the society, to respond potentially to uprisings or riots.
02:11:41.000This is a gesture towards regime change.
02:11:44.000We're at that point trying to collapse Iranian society so that the government will fall.
02:11:52.000The reason that Trump has been reluctant to do this is because Iran then would reserve the right and the capability to retaliate in exactly the same way.
02:12:02.000If we launch these attacks on Iran's civilian infrastructure, they can use their drones and missiles to do the same thing in all of the Gulf countries.
02:12:11.000They can do this to Saudi Arabia, to their eastern province, their gas fields, or rather their oil fields.
02:12:18.000They could do it to Qatar and destroy their LNG plants.
02:12:21.000They could do it to the Emirates and destroy all the civilian infrastructure in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
02:12:27.000And if this happens on both sides of the Persian Gulf, if both Iran's energy sector and all the Gulf countries' energy sectors are destroyed, Then this significantly diminishes the overall supply of energy in the world.
02:12:41.000There'll be significantly less LNG, significantly less oil.
02:12:45.000And so, this problem that we have right now is there's a temporary energy crunch.
02:12:54.000If we shut down the strait, and by we, I mean Iran and the United States, if they shut down the strait, those ships carrying oil are still there in the Gulf.
02:13:05.000And the day that Iran opens up the strait, Those ships carrying that oil or that LNG can then just go through.
02:13:13.000So, you could say that this is very temporary, and they're really just delaying the supply of oil and gas.
02:13:21.000They may target a few ships, and all that does in the short term is it kills the confidence on the part of insurance companies and on the oil and gas companies that they'll be able to safely transit the strait.
02:13:32.000And the overall cost is that a few ships are damaged.
02:13:51.000And the supply of oil and gas overall is not permanently reduced, it's just delayed.
02:13:58.000And it might cause some damage to the infrastructure.
02:14:00.000I'm oversimplifying, but the point is that closing the straight is reversible.
02:14:06.000And all it does is delay the supply of oil.
02:14:08.000There's an interruption in the supply, which causes short term problems.
02:14:13.000It causes a short term shortage, it puts pressure on Asian countries and other countries to unload their strategic reserves.
02:14:21.000It temporarily increases prices and inflation, but the interruption surely will be over when the crisis is resolved.
02:14:29.000Damaging the infrastructure is a different story because if Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iran, if their oil and gas infrastructure is destroyed, it will take five years to rebuild.
02:14:45.000Notoriously, oil and gas is a very expensive enterprise.
02:14:49.000And this infrastructure is very capital intensive.
02:15:28.000And this is why the United States has been reluctant to make this an energy war, because then we realize the problem becomes so much more severe.
02:15:36.000It's not a question of resuming the supply of oil, ending this temporary interruption.
02:15:42.000It becomes this huge problem of capital and construction, and then establishing a secure zone in these countries, both countries to rebuild.
02:16:45.000But now that this war has gone on for over four months, now the main objective is opening up the Strait to get the oil flowing.
02:16:54.000So, with this new objective in mind, what does a ground operation look like that Trump is talking about?
02:17:00.000When Trump says other countries are going to be involved, who does he mean?
02:17:06.000And when he says he won't rule out a ground operation, what does that look like?
02:17:09.000What has been discussed up until this point is a ground operation on the islands in the Persian Gulf, a few in particular.
02:17:18.000There's a few major islands in the Strait of Hormuz, and then there's Karg Island, which is further up northwest in the Persian Gulf.
02:17:27.000If there's a ground operation, it will be to secure those islands in the Strait of Hormuz, because this is where Iran has its naval facilities, where they maintain their mining equipment.
02:17:37.000And by mining, I mean naval based explosive mines, as well as their fleet.
02:17:42.000Of smaller IRGC boats and drone and missile launch platforms.
02:17:48.000So we would be going into the islands on the Strait of Hormuz to prevent the IRGC from mining the strait, from attacking vessels using small speed boats, and also to destroy the platforms from which drones and missiles are launched.
02:18:03.000So it'd be an invasion of the islands.
02:18:05.000And then further up northwest in the Persian Gulf, we'd be going after Karg Island.
02:18:10.000This is where Iran pumps all of its oil out onto the container ships.
02:18:17.000Iran's coast along the Persian Gulf, the water is too shallow for a heavy tanker, for a very large vessel to dock and to get the oil on board.
02:18:26.000So they pump it out some distance from the coast onto the small island called Karg Island.
02:18:32.000And there, the water's deep enough where a very large tanker can dock and get the oil.
02:18:37.000So even though Iran's infrastructure is dispersed across the country, the chokehold, the choke point is this island.
02:18:47.000Establish some kind of a beachhead, might put Marines there in conjunction with other countries to take control of the export of their energy resources.
02:18:57.000More likely than not, it would be some combination of the Gulf countries.
02:19:02.000When Trump says other countries would do it, he's talking about the UAE, most likely.
02:19:08.000And maybe second most likely is Saudi Arabia.
02:19:11.000In addition, there might be some kind of ground operation further inland with the Iraqi Kurds.
02:19:18.000The U.S. and the Israelis have a major military and intelligence footprint in northern Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, which is semi autonomous, is not fully controlled by the government in Baghdad, and it borders Iran.
02:19:33.000And not only does it border Iran, but it borders Iranian Kurdistan.
02:19:38.000And so this was talked about very early on when there were those uprisings back in January that maybe the U.S. and Israel would launch an operation with the Kurds in Iraq to cross over that border into Western Iran.
02:19:51.000With the help of the Kurds that already live there, and they might try to attack military and government targets.
02:19:58.000They might try to foment a larger rebellion in the country or maybe destroy other key military sites.
02:20:05.000So, this is what the military operation might look like.
02:20:08.000Now, Trump says he wouldn't rule out a ground operation.
02:20:11.000He says specifically, but first, what we would need to do is push the Iranians back deeper into their country.
02:20:40.000And they're focusing on the coast because of the range of the drones and missiles.
02:20:46.000They don't have to destroy all of Iran's drone and missile production capabilities or launch sites or silos.
02:20:53.000All they have to do is suppress enough of the drones and missiles on the coast that are within range of the Strait of Hormuz and Karg Island.
02:21:03.000Because if they could push back all those drone and missile launch capabilities many kilometers inland in Iran, then they might not be within range of Karg Island.
02:21:15.000They might not be within range of the islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
02:21:20.000And even though Iran might have the ability to launch drones and missiles, they will not have the range to hit those targets.
02:21:27.000And thus, it would make it safe and secure for the United States, in combination with the Gulf countries, to maybe invade those islands.
02:21:36.000With protection in the air from American drones, Ospreys, helicopters, warthogs, and other U.S. Navy and Air Force assets.
02:21:47.000So, all of this rests again on the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz.
02:21:52.000Iran will not let the United States open up a secondary route with Oman, so they're shutting down the Strait.
02:21:58.000In retaliation, the United States is heavily bombing around the southwestern coast in the hopes that they might be able to get in on those islands.
02:22:08.000And if they could establish some kind of air base there, if they could establish a runway, they could begin landing other assets on the islands, take control of the islands, you take control of the Strait.
02:22:21.000And if we can control the Strait, if we can prevent drones and missiles from hitting ships there, then Iran loses all of its leverage.
02:22:27.000And then we can impose conditions on the nuclear program and on the rest of their conduct.
02:23:00.000The actual oil and gas is in the Persian Gulf and on the coasts of the Persian Gulf.
02:23:05.000Thus, this is where all the infrastructure has been built, not just the infrastructure to harvest.
02:23:11.000The oil and gas, but also to refine it and also to export it.
02:23:16.000So, consequently, it is most economical for Saudi Arabia to get the oil from its eastern province, refine it on the coast, and export it from its coast in the Persian Gulf.
02:23:38.000If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, all that oil is stuck, and it's stuck there because that's where all the infrastructure is.
02:23:45.000But Saudi Arabia has anticipated that this might be a problem.
02:23:50.000Saudi Arabia anticipated that there is a choke point that if Iran so chose to close the Strait of Hormuz, then all their oil, which is the lifeblood of their economy, would be stuck.
02:24:02.000So Saudi Arabia began building a pipeline called the East West Pipeline, where they're going to take the oil from their eastern province and from the Gulf.
02:24:11.000They're going to put it through a pipe that goes through the entire horizontal length of the country and they'll ship it out.
02:24:22.000Because the Arabian Peninsula is bordered on the east by the Persian Gulf, on the west by the Red Sea, on the south by the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Gulf, the Omani Gulf.
02:24:33.000And so there are two ways that Saudi Arabia can get its oil out to Asia either it goes through the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz, or you can put it through a pipeline west overland to the Red Sea, and then it goes south through the Bab al Mandeb, which is like the Strait of Hormuz for the Red Sea.
02:24:52.000And then out through the Indian Ocean to Asia.
02:24:55.000And since the war started, Saudi Arabia for the first time began using this pipeline at 100% capacity.
02:25:03.000As much oil as possible through this east west pipeline.
02:25:07.000The United Arab Emirates has done the same thing.
02:25:09.000They constructed the west east pipeline.
02:25:12.000And they're taking the oil from inside the Persian Gulf and they're pumping it east through their country to the other side.
02:25:20.000It bypasses the Strait of Hormuz from the south into the Gulf of Oman.
02:25:26.000Now, in response to this development, the Iranians realize we have to up the pressure on the United States, Asia, and the Gulf countries.
02:25:35.000The Iranians are allied with the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
02:25:39.000The Houthi rebels control northern and western Yemen, which borders the Bab el Mandeb and the southern part of the Red Sea.
02:25:47.000The Houthi rebels, like Hezbollah, like Iran, have a massive stockpile of drones and rockets.
02:25:53.000And so the specter over all of this, this entire time, is this plan by the Houthi rebels.
02:25:59.000Under pressure from Iran to also close the Bab el Mandeb.
02:26:05.000And if that happens, then all of the maritime shipping through the Middle East is closed.
02:26:13.000Nothing is moving through the Bab el Mandeb.
02:26:15.000And what that means is not only is Saudi Arabia's oil then stuck in the Gulf and stuck in the Red Sea, but also probably all commercial shipping in the world that goes through the Red Sea, which is not even mostly energy, will also be stopped.
02:26:34.000And so all of Europe's shipping that goes through the Red Sea to Asia will also be shut down.
02:26:40.000And what will be the alternative route at that point?
02:26:42.000They'll have to go all the way around the Cape of Good Hope.
02:26:44.000They'll have to go all the way around the southern coast of Africa to get any of their shipping to Asia.
02:26:53.000And what this does is it not only increases pressure on energy, because again, you're preventing even the little oil that Saudi Arabia has been getting out through the Red Sea.
02:27:03.000But also, all this other commercial shipping is going to have increased transportation costs because the route has just gotten much longer.
02:27:11.000As opposed to cutting through the Red Sea, now they got to go all the way around Africa, which costs a lot more money.
02:27:18.000And so, if you had inflation problems before, energy shortage before, now the problem gets even more acute.
02:27:26.000So, the other development from this weekend is that an Iranian plane from Iran landed in Sana'a, which is the Houthi controlled capital of Yemen, in Yemen's northwestern.
02:27:40.000Saudi Arabia prevented that plane from landing by bombing the Sana'a airport.
02:27:46.000And the plane had to be diverted east to a different airport, also controlled by the Houthis.
02:27:52.000And why did Saudi Arabia bomb the airport?
02:27:55.000Because what this represents is an Iranian attempt to establish an air bridge between Iran and Yemen.
02:28:03.000If they can establish an air bridge, meaning that there's going to be flights, military or other cargo flights, moving from Iran to Sana'a.
02:28:12.000Then that means the Iranians could be supplying the Houthis with rockets, drones, maybe missiles that they might use to shut down shipping in the Red Sea and prevent Saudi Arabia from using its east west pipeline to get its oil out from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and then out to Asia.
02:28:31.000In retaliation, the Houthi rebels launched rockets at Saudi Arabia's civilian airport and one of its air bases, presumably where they launched the airstrike from.
02:28:42.000Saudi Arabia is now imposing a blockade.
02:28:48.000They're closing Yemen's airspace and saying that if Iran attempts to land any planes in Yemen, or if any planes at all land in Yemen, then the airport will be bombed.
02:28:58.000Potentially the planes will be shot down.
02:29:00.000In response, the Houthis have said they will attack planes trying to land in Saudi Arabia and trying to close Saudi Arabia's airspace.
02:29:09.000So it's like I said at the top of the show now this war is widening to include another front.
02:29:14.000And now you might have shipping, or rather, fighting.
02:29:18.000Between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
02:29:20.000And this might take place on the ground.
02:29:22.000It might take place as a war of cities using missiles and drones, launching them at each other.
02:29:28.000This is another way in which Iran is going to put pressure on the Gulf.
02:29:33.000Because now Saudi Arabia not only has to worry about defending from missile and drone attacks originating in Iran, but they also have to worry about defending against ground incursion, missile and drone attacks coming from Yemen.
02:29:46.000And whereas before we were worried about the closure of the strait, now we have to anticipate that there might be a threat.
02:29:52.000To close the Bab el Mandeb coming from Yemen.
02:29:55.000And so now the United States might have to be involved in that theater.
02:29:59.000Certainly Saudi Arabia will be as well.
02:30:02.000It's like I said before, this is the way in which the war is now widening to include three fronts the Persian Gulf, Israel and Lebanon, and also now increasingly Yemen.
02:30:13.000And all this does is it makes it more likely that the United States is drawn further and further into the conflict.
02:30:20.000And it almost makes a ground occupation inevitable at this point.
02:30:26.000The reason the peace failed is because Iran will never allow the Strait of Hormuz to open free for all shipping again.
02:30:35.000And conversely, the United States will never allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz.
02:30:41.000Now, we know that there's probably no way that we can permanently suppress Iran's ability to close the Strait.
02:30:48.000Iran also knows there's nothing they could do to defend against the United States launching decapitation strikes against the regime, hitting them hundreds or thousands of times a day with our air force.
02:31:00.000Conversely, we know that Iran and the Houthis can make it hurt for us very badly in the Gulf countries.
02:31:07.000And I think this is pushing both of us towards escalation.
02:31:10.000The Iranians are going to have to escalate to pressure the United States to bow out of the conflict.
02:31:15.000We're going to have to increase the pressure to impose our demands on Iran.
02:31:19.000Now, fundamentally, here is why I believe there's no way out of this.
02:31:25.000At the heart of all of this conflict, make no mistake about it, for us, Is that Iran has a stockpile of highly enriched uranium and they have centrifuges.
02:31:36.000This is the elephant in the room, okay?
02:31:39.000When you really figure out all the logic, why Iran behaves the way it does, why we behave the way that we do, it is all concerning the nuclear program.
02:32:08.000So we have to assume that if Iran has a massive stockpile of highly enriched uranium and they have operational centrifuges, that if left alone, they could develop a nuclear weapon.
02:32:20.000They could further enrich their existing stockpile of uranium.
02:32:25.000And they would have the material for maybe 10 to 20 nuclear bombs.
02:32:29.000And it doesn't matter if they put it on a missile, which they have not demonstrated the capability to do so, they call that miniaturization.
02:32:37.000You make a warhead, then you make it small enough to put on a missile.
02:32:41.000They don't have ICBMs, intercontinental ballistic missiles, that they could launch at the United States.
02:32:46.000But all they would need is a very primitive nuclear device to make any kind of intervention against Iran impossible.
02:32:55.000So, if left alone, if they have the centrifuges, if they have the stockpile, they can make the nuclear material to build a primitive warhead to make a true weapon of mass destruction that they could use on the field against Israel, against the Gulf countries, if the United States tried to intervene against one of our bases.
02:33:13.000And this would be totally unacceptable.
02:33:16.000Now, this is what is motivating both Iran's behavior and ours.
02:33:21.000What Iran is seeking to do is establish deterrence.
02:33:24.000They are trying to make this as painful as possible for the United States.
02:33:36.000And the most that they could do is launch drones and missiles at our bases, which we can shoot down and we can evacuate the bases and rebuild the bases.
02:33:44.000They can't hit our aircraft carriers because our carriers move.
02:33:49.000So, Iran knows they cannot defeat the United States militarily.
02:34:19.000To blind us so that their drones and missiles are more effective.
02:34:23.000Drones and missiles need to be made unstoppable so that every time they make a launch, you know, they launch a flurry of low cost drones, overwhelm the interceptor systems, and then the heavier payload projectiles like cruise missiles and ballistic missiles are able to get through.
02:34:40.000And they're going to pound our military bases, which is going to do a lot of damage, costly damage.
02:34:45.000They're going to pound infrastructure in the Gulf countries, Saudi, Kuwait, Bahrain, the Emirates.
02:34:51.000And it's costly to rebuild these things.
02:34:53.000It's costly for those countries' economies because tourists and investors and even residents are not going to want to live and invest money in those countries if they're being bombed all the time.
02:35:04.000It's not good for business in a city like Dubai or Doha or Abu Dhabi to have Iranian drones and missiles landing at your civilian airport, at your hotels, at your desalination plants, and so on.
02:35:16.000So Iran is seeking to impose economic and military damage by bombing all of these military and civilian sites with drones and missiles.
02:35:25.000They're also using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to hurt the global economy and our economy.
02:35:32.000Shut down the flow of oil, and this acutely hurts the Asian countries first, because that's where most of the oil from the Persian Gulf is actually destined for.
02:35:40.000It's headed to India, it's headed to Japan, it's headed to Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia.
02:35:46.000And so if it's hurting Asia, then Asia is putting pressure on the United States.
02:36:07.000So Europe is mad at the United States as well.
02:36:09.000And then the big one is that it increases energy prices even for us, which increases overall prices, which causes inflation, which makes us raise interest rates.
02:36:20.000And this causes major economic problems for us.
02:36:23.000Energy shortage, first and foremost, higher energy costs, secondarily.
02:36:28.000And then later on, Increasing cost for transportation and higher prices overall, higher borrowing costs.
02:36:37.000And what that does is it limits the ability for tech companies to speculate.
02:36:41.000It slows down data center construction, causing AI companies and chip companies to collapse.
02:36:47.000There's like a lot of dominoes that begin to fall when energy becomes expensive.
02:36:51.000And so this is what Iran is doing Iran is cranking up the pressure by doing these activities.
02:37:49.000Right now, Iran is deterring aggression with its proxies that might retaliate against Israel and the Gulf countries.
02:37:56.000They are deterring aggression by closing the Strait of Hormuz, creating economic pain.
02:38:00.000They're deterring aggression with a massive arsenal, native ability to produce drones and missiles that can impose a very high cost on all of our allies and destroy all our military sites.
02:38:13.000And therefore, the guarantor of regime survival is a nuclear weapon.
02:38:18.000But the reason they can't have one is because if they pursue one, it invites U.S. aggression.
02:38:24.000If they were to race towards a bomb, then it would justify any cost for the United States to intervene.
02:38:32.000And so, what Iran seeks to do is to impose such a high cost in the short term, they can race towards a bomb, we will not be able to stop them.
02:38:41.000And then, once they get the bomb, then we'll never be able to intervene.
02:38:45.000Then the regime will be able to survive in perpetuity.
02:38:48.000It's the same reason North Korea has a nuclear bomb.
02:38:51.000North Korea has thousands of artillery pointed at Seoul, and they have 80 nuclear warheads, and they've got nuclear capable submarines and medium range missiles.
02:39:03.000And all of this is to guarantee the survival of the regime.
02:39:05.000And that's why they still have a Juche communist regime.
02:39:09.000Even though the people are enslaved and miserable and they're poor, and you have this autarky based on military production, that regime will never go anywhere because it can't.
02:39:19.000Because they have 80 nuclear warheads.
02:41:02.000Because ultimately, that is what we'd have to do decapitate the regime.
02:41:06.000Bomb the nuclear sites, prevent them from going in.
02:41:08.000But if in that distant future we bomb Iran, they rain thousands of drones and missiles on the Gulf countries, they close the strait, they rain missiles on Israel and the Eastern province from the proxies, we wouldn't be able to stop them.
02:41:22.000So, this is why you're never going to get an end to this conflict unless the United States is able to secure or somehow make inaccessible the stockpile of uranium and the centrifuges.
02:41:36.000So, I've always been saying you have to talk about root causes.
02:41:40.000And I'm saying this, this is not my perspective.
02:41:42.000This is the strategic thinking of the United States military.
02:41:46.000So, Joe Kent, who just left the counterterrorism center, he said, We don't even need a deal.
02:42:00.000And Iran can't just open up the strait either, because if they open up the strait, then they know it will allow for the United States to regroup.
02:42:09.000And make another attempt at regime change in the future.
02:42:12.000This is the strategic thinking that motivates every party involved.
02:42:24.000Well, the solution lies within Israel.
02:42:28.000Why is Iran obsessed with regime survival?
02:42:32.000Because sometime in the 1990s, Israel changed its geopolitical thinking.
02:42:38.000After the Desert Storm U.S. war in Iraq, Israel began to see Iran rather than Saddam Hussein's Iraq as the principal rival and threat in the region.
02:42:50.000After the U.S. invaded Iraq in 1990 and destroyed their nuclear weapons program and destroyed their military, Israel began to see Iran as the number one threat and decided they have to go.
02:43:02.000In 2003, the United States invades Iraq, topples the government, and Iran realizes we're next.
02:43:09.000Iran sees that in 2011, Muammar Gaddafi, who was cooperating with the United States, he fell anyway too.
02:43:16.000Even though he gave up his nuclear ambitions voluntarily, even though he cooperated with the United States on counterterrorism, it didn't matter.
02:43:25.000He went just the same as Saddam Hussein did.
02:43:29.000Iran is obsessed with regime survival because they have seen the fate of Saddam Hussein, they have seen the fate of Muammar Gaddafi, they have seen the fate of Bashar al Assad, and they expect, they anticipate, they expect that Israel will drive the United States to topple Iran's government.
02:43:47.000That's why they will trade everything for a nuclear arsenal.
02:43:51.000That's why they will take on the sanctions.
02:43:55.000They will suffer the shadow war against their infrastructure by Israel and the United States.
02:44:01.000That is why they will suffer being a pariah state.
02:44:05.000Because it is better to be under sanctions, it is better to be subjected to sabotage and espionage and all these things than to suffer the fate of Assad, Gaddafi, and Saddam Hussein.
02:44:19.000They don't want to be executed in the UN court.
02:44:21.000They don't want to be dragged through the streets and, you know, what happened to Gaddafi, penetrated by a metal rod.
02:44:28.000They don't want to have to flee to Russia like Assad.
02:44:31.000And this is what they see as the only way to do so is to achieve this nuclear threshold status, develop these other conventional deterrent capabilities.
02:44:42.000And either those are sufficient or they guarantee their ability to develop a weapon and forever protect the survival of the regime.
02:44:51.000So, how does that inform the solution?
02:44:55.000If we can inspire confidence in Iran that we will never seek the destruction of their regime, then maybe they might abandon their nuclear ambitions.
02:45:05.000The only way to do that is regime change in Israel.
02:45:09.000We need Israel's strategic thinking to change.
02:45:12.000If Israel were to no longer pursue regime change against Iran, then we might be able to assure Iran that they don't have to worry about regime survival, that maybe the nuclear threshold status isn't as important, and that economic integration and normalization might be a better guarantor of survival than a nuclear program if we can eliminate that threat for them.
02:45:41.000Because the bipartisan consensus in Israel on their octopus doctrine is that they're done cutting off the tentacles, which is Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
02:45:50.000They're going for the head, which is Iran.
02:47:06.000I guess we'll just knock it out tonight.
02:47:09.000The other angle I wanted to get into, we've only been going for about 70 minutes.
02:47:13.000The other angle I wanted to get into with Iran, and this is maybe less to do with the situation in the Middle East, this is more of a domestic political story, is how JD Vance is actually the biggest loser in this entire debacle.
02:47:29.000When the war started, JD Vance was nowhere to be seen.
02:48:10.000And he knows, like we all do, that this war is a catastrophe.
02:48:14.000We are strategically being defeated in the war.
02:48:18.000And not only that, but it's causing an economic crisis.
02:48:21.000And it's going to get worse and not better.
02:48:24.000This is going to have major ramifications for us and our foreign policy in every part of the world.
02:48:30.000And that's also going to have major ramifications for the economy as well, long term ramifications.
02:48:37.000And we're not going to start to see these things until next year.
02:48:39.000Coincidentally, when the presidential election is really going to start, the presidential primaries are going to start in, let's say, June 2027 at the latest.
02:48:51.000And so, what Vance is anticipating is that next year, when he enters the Republican primary for the presidential election, he's going to be asked by the press and in the presidential debates.
02:49:04.000Where were you and what did you say when the war in Iran started?
02:49:09.000You know, we might be knee deep in a recession next year.
02:49:13.000We might be in the middle of a major ground war next year.
02:49:16.000It might be a complete catastrophe, might be the worst case scenario.
02:49:19.000And they're going to say, why didn't you prevent it?
02:49:24.000How can you tell people to vote for you when you got us in this mess?
02:49:29.000You either were in favor of it, in which case you own it, or you were powerless to stop it, in which case, why would we think you could do better as president?
02:49:39.000So, Vance and all of his allies, by the way, they all know he's got an Iran war problem.
02:49:44.000In 2028, he may even be removed from consideration because he's going to be seen as owning the Iran war.
02:49:54.000So, what has JD Vance's strategy been?
02:49:57.000He thought that if he hid and if he left the public eye when the war started, if he just wasn't visible, I mean, he's literally hiding, saying, if they don't see me, I won't get blamed for this.
02:50:10.000He thinks that, however, if he emerges 12 weeks, 16 weeks, 20 weeks into the conflict, and he's able to negotiate the peace deal, well, maybe he will not be able to say that he prevented the war, but he will be able to take credit for ending it.
02:51:15.000He's going to say, Dana, whoever it is, Jake, Jake Tapper, my job was to support the policies of the President of the United States, and that's what I did.
02:51:24.000I had my doubts, I had my reservations, but my job was to support the President.
02:51:28.000But I led the diplomatic effort in Islamabad, and I led the effort in Switzerland, and I was there in Qatar, and we tried to get the best deal that we could.
02:51:37.000We sought prosperity over war, but that's going to be the answer.
02:51:41.000And so, to that end, early on, when the original ceasefire was promulgated in April, It was JD Vance that led the delegation to Islamabad, and he pushed for it.
02:51:54.000There was intense fighting inside the White House.
02:51:57.000Vance desperately wanted to go to Islamabad to work out the peace deal.
02:52:03.000And other elements in the White House that didn't like him went to the press and said, no, President Trump and Steve Witkopf are leading the process, not JD Vance.
02:52:15.000And then when the MOU came out, it was Vance that went to Islamabad, it was Vance that went to Switzerland.
02:52:22.000For the first round of negotiations, it was Vance that went on the morning shows four weeks ago to defend the deal.
02:52:29.000He went on all the morning shows four weeks ago, almost to the day, to defend the plan and say, We're going to give the Iranians an opportunity, and this might be turning over a new leaf.
02:52:41.000It's a new era in U.S. Iran relations.
02:52:43.000And he wanted to be the face of the peace deal, not the face of the war, so that he would have an excuse for all of the problems it's going to cause.
02:52:56.000And so now that the MOU has utterly collapsed, now he is going to catch the blame, not only for the war's beginning, but also the war's resumption.
02:53:05.000People are going to say, you didn't prevent the war.
02:53:07.000And by the way, you also failed to end the war, too.
02:53:11.000You couldn't stop Trump from getting us into the Iran war.
02:53:14.000And when you tried to put your face all over the peace deal, you couldn't get the deal either.
02:53:42.000The Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor should be one of the principal actors in our foreign policy as we carry out this war in Iran.
02:53:52.000And yet, for some reason, our National Security Advisor, Secretary of State, fully loaded diplomat, Is for whatever reason not seen as one of the major parties to the conflict.
02:54:04.000Instead, he's getting the credit for our far more successful Latin American file.
02:54:11.000He's getting the credit for Southern Spear.
02:54:13.000He's getting the credit for extraditing Maduro.
02:54:16.000He may get the credit if or when we're able to impose our will on Cuba.
02:54:22.000And so our far more successful Caribbean Latin American file is going to be all him.
02:54:28.000And our disaster of a Middle Eastern file is going to fall on JD Vance.
02:54:34.000And so, this is why over the past couple of weeks, Vance threw himself in front of Islamabad, threw himself in front of Switzerland.
02:54:45.000Rubio was holding a negotiation between Israel and Lebanon at the State Department.
02:54:54.000And whereas Vance was in Qatar trying to sell Americans on this deal and trying to sell Americans on giving Iran $3 billion and selling Americans on making peace with Iran and normalizing relations, and we can trust them.
02:55:08.000Rubio was at the State Department making a deal with our allies, Israel and Lebanon.
02:55:13.000And Rubio went to the Gulf and was getting tough on Iran.
02:55:18.000He said, Oh, Iran is worried about Lebanon's sovereignty.
02:55:21.000Well, then stop giving money to Hezbollah.
02:55:24.000Iran wants to open up the Strait of Hormuz.
02:55:31.000And so, in a way, the peace process is becoming a battleground for a proxy war between Rubio and Vance.
02:55:39.000Rubio and Vance are selecting different parts of the peace process, the parts which they think will confer upon them the biggest political benefits in 28.
02:55:49.000Rubio thinks that by talking tough and being the neocon, I don't trust the Iranians.
02:55:54.000The Iranians need to get out of Lebanon before Israel does.
02:55:57.000Here's our deal between Israel and Lebanon.
02:56:00.000And steering clear of the bad stuff, he thinks he's going to be seen as the seasoned diplomat.
02:56:05.000He's going to be the more effective politician.
02:56:11.000If his lane running for president is winning over the people that don't like the war, the Tucker Carlson wing, he knows he can't hold that lane while being blamed for the war.
02:56:21.000He's going to try to take credit for solving it and revolutionizing the relations between the U.S. and Iran with some kind of peace deal.
02:56:29.000And that's why the two are, in a way, sabotaging each other and fighting each other as the diplomatic process works out.
02:56:38.000The MOU falls apart, and maybe the biggest loser is JD Vance.
02:56:43.000Because now he went double or nothing and he lost.
02:56:47.000He's going to get blamed for not being able to stop the war.
02:56:50.000He's going to be blamed for failing to end the war.
02:56:53.000And what's that going to look like in nine months, 12 months, when he gets asked on the debate stage by a journalist, hey man, what's going on?
02:57:02.000We saw you tried to stop the war, then you went into hiding.
02:57:05.000You tried to end the war and it totally failed.
02:57:07.000You went on the morning shows and tried to sell us on this deal, which was a giveaway to Iran, and they started closing the strait anyway.
02:57:56.000All of our economic growth is AI and all of AI is speculation and debt.
02:58:02.000It's all speculation on future gains and borrowing to finance those perceived massive gains, borrowing to build the data centers, borrowing to buy the chips, borrowing because these companies aren't even profitable yet.
02:58:20.000All of our economic growth in the construction sector, in the stock market, in the NASDAQ, it's all based on the price of money.
02:58:30.000If it's all financed by debt, then that means the economics of it are dependent on the current interest rate, the prevailing interest rate.
02:58:37.000Well, if prices start to go high, if the economy is overheating because of a prolonged closure of the straight and persistently high energy cost, then the Federal Reserve cannot cut the rates.
02:58:51.000And not only can they not cut the rates, they might start raising the rates.
02:58:56.000And if there's no expectation that energy costs is going to go down, then there's going to be no expectation that rates can come down.
02:59:02.000And if there's no expectation that rates are going to go down, then these AI companies are going to have to scale back.
02:59:09.000Because what do these data centers run on?
02:59:14.000So they're getting hit from both sides not just the borrowing, but also the electricity cost.
02:59:19.000Their economics are going to be all fucked up because of this.
02:59:23.000Data centers are going to be more costly to run, build, and more costly to finance because interest rates are not going to come down anymore.
02:59:33.000So, this spells a very big problem for the U.S. economy going into next year, especially if there's no confidence that we're going to be able to close the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.
02:59:43.000And, like I said, the strategic thinking, which actually takes primacy, when it comes to the strategic thinking of the Pentagon versus, like, let's say, the economic thinking of the Economic planners, the Fed, asset managers, bankers, the Pentagon wins.
02:59:58.000The Pentagon actually outflanks the economic thinking.
03:00:02.000It's like Trump always says they say, What do you think about the financial well being of the U.S. consumer?
03:00:09.000He says, because what takes precedence is that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon.
03:00:13.000And like we just talked about, that's what's driving everything.
03:00:16.000So, in other words, maybe if you gave Iran the Strait of Hormuz, it would alleviate the pressure on the economy, but that might guarantee they could get a nuclear weapon.
03:03:10.000I was thinking about that the other day.
03:03:15.000The conversation has just gotten so polluted by idiots and bad actors.
03:03:20.000And I have no problem distancing myself from that because.
03:03:26.000It's one of these classic situations where the crowd is going in a certain direction, and the crowd is mindless.
03:03:34.000The crowd just does what they think is popular, and it's obvious that that's not going to end well.
03:03:40.000So, when you got Dan Kazarian up there saying, Yeah, kill Israelis and destroy flock cameras, you know, that seems like a good idea right now when everyone's doing it, and the only direction that seems to make sense is more radical, more extreme.
03:04:23.000There were all these white nationalist terrorist attacks, and that was the pretext that they used to ban everybody the telecom companies, the social platforms, all the other major digital platforms.
03:11:58.000She bought a warehouse in Humboldt Park.
03:12:02.000This genius, this genius interior designer from HGTV, she said, I'm going to refurbish, I'm going to renovate a warehouse in Humboldt Park, which, if you know anything about Humboldt Park, it's the ghetto, okay?
03:12:19.000She goes, I'm going to go to Humboldt Park, I'm going to buy a warehouse next to a currency exchange.
03:12:26.000Literally, on one side is a Popeyes, on the other side is a currency exchange in Humboldt Park.
03:12:32.000She goes, and I'm going to turn this warehouse into my dream home.
03:12:36.000She put, I think, $2 million into this renovation, bought the warehouse, gutted it, painted it, built new walls.
03:12:45.000She furnished it with these unbelievable amenities waterfall countertop on the island, brand new fridge, wine fridge, you know, amazing appliances.
03:12:58.000She flew in these doors that she bought from France.
03:13:02.000These French style doors that she found at some antique store in Europe, she had them flown in.
03:14:40.000And then buy a bunch of cheap white paint because you're going to be, you know, if you got renters, you're going to be painting a lot.
03:14:46.000And don't go for the nicest stuff, just get the cheap stuff and make it easy to clean and repair and everything like that.
03:14:53.000So if you're a first time home buyer, just have a mind towards resale value.
03:14:57.000How are you going to recoup your, because that's what it is, it's an asset, it's an investment.
03:15:01.000Now, you know, people will say it's not really an asset because assets produce cash flow and a house doesn't do that, but it's where you park your money and you hope that it appreciates over time.
03:15:11.000So, you know, you just got to think about it financially.
03:15:15.000Take your tax advantages, refinance when interest rates come down, if they do.
03:15:21.000Set aside money for a rainy day because you're going to be, there's going to be repairs needed.
03:15:30.000Sometimes it happens kind of sporadically, but you're going to need it.
03:15:33.000So put some money aside month over month in a fund that you can, so it's not going to break the bank, you know, when the hot water heater breaks, when the furnace breaks in the middle of winter.
03:15:43.000Because that's going to be a huge capital expenditure.
03:15:48.000And don't do anything without thinking about whether you're going to recoup the value.
03:15:52.000There's going to be a time to sell it, and you're going to want to make sure that you're going to get an ROI on every dollar you put into it.
03:17:38.000I've been cooking this one up for a long time.
03:17:41.000When I was growing up, all of this Reddit science was the purview of the left, right?
03:17:48.000When I was growing up, all the science people, it was like potheads that were on the I fucking love science subreddit, Neil deGrasse Tyson fans, and they were all obsessed with like global warming and save the bees, right?
03:22:02.000So I don't even know what you do without sounding like Hitler.
03:22:11.000And I don't mean genociding people, but I don't know how you fix that problem unless there's just like an intervention that interrupts the cycle.
03:22:20.000And that would involve taking away a lot of liberties.
03:26:46.000I always wanted like a brutalist monument in the ghetto so that people, I say, like, yeah, just come over to my house and they're like afraid to stand outside.
03:29:15.000We were talking about the movement after Mass.
03:29:18.000I have no problem with the Catholic ones because the Catholic ones will defer that America's a Christian country and to propriety in general.
03:31:11.000Because I can recall a few instances where sins are forgiven, and that's where people go to Christ, and that's where people go to the apostles.
03:31:19.000Christ says, I bind and loose sins here in real life.
03:31:23.000And Christ tells the apostles, You have this power too.
03:31:27.000The apostles also have the power to bind and loose sins.
03:32:26.000So, you know, and it only just makes common sense.
03:32:30.000Without the church to be the guardian of scripture and the guardian of the repository of tradition and interpretation, without the church to administer the sacraments, it's just a free for all.
03:32:44.000We're going to trust every other person to read the Bible and just say, hey, whatever you think it means, it's really up to you.
03:32:51.000And that's how you get a female bishop of Canterbury.
03:32:55.000And that's how you get transgender pastors.
03:32:57.000And that's how you get all the bullshit that goes on in the Protestant sex.
03:34:26.000This other system you're talking about where you say, And if you really believe, and with a tiny bit of magic, everyone can go to heaven.
03:34:34.000That's not what the Bible says, and that doesn't make any sense, and it doesn't fucking work.
03:34:40.000That's why every other church has to schism and schism and schism, and you've got, you know, Reformed this, and Missouri this, and this, that, and these were, I'm a Seventh day Adventist from this thing, and I'm a this one and that one.
03:34:55.000That's why there are 10,000 Protestant sects, and none of them can agree.
03:34:58.000And either everybody, You know, as long as they're doing what they think is right, it's going to go to heaven, or 99% of them are going to hell.
03:35:05.000And there's one obscure church over here that has it right for some reason.
03:35:09.000There's one like Reformed Baptist Church of West Texas, the Second Division.
03:35:16.000They're the only ones that have it right.
03:35:54.000The church created the canon, the church created the creed, the church administers the sacraments, the church is the repository of our sacred tradition and the mass and the rest of it.
03:36:06.000You leave the church, you have none of that.
03:36:10.000So, the best way to get into heaven is to receive the sacraments from the church.
03:36:14.000I'm not going to say no one else is going to go to heaven.
03:36:16.000I mean, I assume some other people go to heaven.
03:36:20.000But if you want to increase your chances, you have to become Catholic.
03:39:10.000We maybe need a Roman mentality, which is maybe like embracing contradictions, universal ideologies that can marshal huge amounts of men and huge armies.
03:39:23.000You know, like that, maybe that's the idea.
03:42:56.000And that's the only thing that makes you more of a man.
03:42:59.000That's the only thing that builds character.
03:43:00.000That's the only thing that drives you to do great things.
03:43:04.000And you'll find the people that never do anything great, the people that are not impressive, they're the people that can't handle the pain.
03:43:39.000If something horrible happens to you, good.
03:43:43.000You should thank God for all the horrible things that happen to you because every tragedy, every horrible thing, every disappointment, it's one of those things actually that brings you closer to God, I think.
03:43:59.000And some people might say, well, it's easy for you to say or it's flippant or something, but that is how you have to look at it.
03:45:27.000You should be able, a local politician should be full of ideas how they can create advantages for themselves and their team.
03:45:35.000Create sinecures, create funds that benefit your people, create a base of support, identify the next office you're going to run for and try to work for it.
03:45:58.000You are a shit eating loser if you don't know that the answer is always more.
03:46:07.000A good politician, a good businessman will always identify opportunities to accumulate more.
03:46:15.000More, better, the next thing, the next rung on the ladder, the next most powerful person they can get in a room with, the next most powerful ally.
03:46:25.000How do I reward the people that got me here?
03:46:51.000Identify the levers of power that you control, what you can trade those for, what you need to get to the next level, and how you can get it.
03:47:00.000That's what a politician needs to know how to do.
03:47:02.000That's what an entrepreneur needs to know how to do.
04:02:04.000When he had a camera right here and he was in an interview and he was deeply self conscious that he needs to present an amicable image, a congenial image?
04:11:42.000Your friends that are fucking around with drugs and alcohol, your friends that are fucking around doing stupid stuff, criminal stuff, it's not harmless.
04:13:12.000There's a lot of people in this world.
04:13:14.000Some of them are smart, some of them are dumb, some of them work hard, some of them are lazy.
04:13:18.000Some of them are going to be important and be somebody, and some of them, most of them, are going to be mediocrities, unremarkable.
04:13:25.000Where are the smartest, most ambitious, most hardworking, interesting people going to be?
04:13:29.000For four years, they're going to be in college.
04:13:32.000They're going to be in the best colleges.
04:13:34.000If you want a future, you got to meet those people when they're in college.
04:13:39.000Those people, your college buddies at Wharton School of Business, at Harvard Law School, at Stanford, those people are going to be in the top law firms.
04:14:11.000So, in high school, the best thing you can do is set yourself up to go to the best college, get to the best college, meet the best people there, make the most of it, get.
04:14:22.000The best grades, maybe then get an advanced degree, go to the best law school, business school, whatever.
04:16:05.000That's what my fucking dad used to say to me.
04:16:08.000When I was your age and I was like, I want to drop out of high school and start a business, my dad was like, You got to do what you got to do to get where you want to go.
04:21:46.000Huge thank you to Fentanyl is Good For You, Femina Fides, Rich Groyper, Giga Groyper, Jay Grizzle, Goy Fatigue, Aurora Groyper, St. Charles Groyper.