00:06:30.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
00:06:34.000We're being slowly poisoned and in some cases quickly murdered and assassinated.
00:06:41.000And we're killing ourselves every day, inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
00:06:48.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
00:06:56.000People have got to start to get courageous.
00:06:59.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
00:07:13.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
00:07:17.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
00:07:21.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
00:07:27.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
00:07:31.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
00:09:38.000that america was different because we are different palantir is an ai data analytics company
00:10:02.000They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
00:10:09.000If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
00:10:26.000Palantir comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
00:24:00.000My love has got no money, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:04.000My love has got no power, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:07.000My love has got no fame, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:11.000My love has got no money, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:15.000Want more and more people just want more and more freedom and love.
00:24:22.000What he's looking for, want more and more.
00:24:25.000People just want more and more freedom and love.
00:24:30.000What he's looking for, freed from desire.
00:24:53.000If we don't have freedom on the internet in the age of AI, we are going to be mind raped every day forever.
00:25:01.000Think about anything you've ever said or done in the vicinity of your phone's camera or microphone, everything you've ever put into your phone, and even things that are not necessarily so scandalous, but even things like your favorite restaurants, your geo location, because your phone also has a GPS.
00:25:23.000They have access to your bank account.
00:25:25.000AI will literally know everything about you.
00:25:29.000Everyone you know, your relationship to them, your tastes, your preferences, your habits, your whereabouts, your routines, your schedule, when you're asleep.
00:25:39.000They know how much REM sleep you're getting.
00:25:43.000They know how many calories you consume.
00:25:45.000Think about the ways that they can manipulate you.
00:25:48.000You have a computer in your refrigerator, computer in your car, computer in your home security system, computer in your everything, computer in your clothes, your watch, your glasses, your VR headset, your alarm clock.
00:26:00.000You have a smart home, economy of things.
00:26:02.000It's like total, like, rape of everybody by the system forever.
00:26:19.000My life is like a first-person video game, you know?
00:27:18.000These material appetites will never be satisfied.
00:27:23.000And even if they are, it'll never be an adequate substitute for communion with our Holy Father, with somebody, with the author of the world.
00:27:32.000Every mother and father understands the love for a child.
00:50:55.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
00:51:00.000We're being slowly poisoned and in some cases quickly murdered and assassinated.
00:51:07.000And we're killing ourselves every day.
00:51:09.000Inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
00:51:14.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
00:51:21.000People have got to start to get courageous.
00:51:25.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
00:51:39.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
00:51:43.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
00:51:46.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
00:51:53.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
00:51:57.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
00:53:50.000And I think that the mature people that actually love America, actually love our children, the people that recognize the division, the peril that we're in, we need to fortify a new consensus and rally the people of conscience, the people of decency, the people of humanity, the people of charity towards their fellow man,
00:54:16.000against those that want to kill us, against those that laugh and celebrate when innocent people are harmed for any reason, for any ideological reason.
00:54:29.000Against the people that are cruel, the people that are hateful.
00:54:32.000And by that, I mean the people that are really cruel.
00:54:35.000Not the people that say things you disagree with, not the people that are provocative, not the people that are sometimes angry, but the people that are really cruel and really evil.
00:54:44.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
00:55:23.000An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children, even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
00:56:50.000Canary Mission is an Israeli-funded blacklist, which since July 2025 has been confirmed to be used by the Trump administration to target students, professors, and professionals who oppose Israel and reside in the United States.
00:57:02.000This idea is part of an initiative created by the Heritage Foundation, the same group responsible for the infamous Project 2025.
00:57:09.000In their initiative, titled Project Esther, they state that students participating in pro-Palestinian protests and activism are supporting Hamas, a group that the United States designates as a foreign terrorist organization.
00:57:21.000Therefore, pro-Palestinian students are considered to be supporting terrorism and are subject to the revocation of visas, frozen bank accounts, asset seizures, and the denial of basic constitutional rights.
00:57:33.000In effect, the Canary mission serves as a means to circumvent constitutional protections, allowing the federal government to engage in intelligence gathering activities that would otherwise be considered unlawful.
00:57:46.000Palantir, another company closely aligned with the state of Israel, uses AI-driven analytics to maintain private databases on U.S. citizens and currently works with four federal agencies.
00:57:55.000While government contracting with the private sector is long-standing, the prominent influence of Jewish groups within these increasingly powerful organizations warrants careful examination.
00:58:09.000I renew the call for all able-bodied young American men, all of our elite human capital, all of our geniuses, warriors, intelligent people to dedicate themselves to American sovereignty and independence as Christians, as Americans, as white people, as citizens of the United States.
00:58:26.000And anybody that settles for anything less is just as much of an enemy.
00:58:31.000I would actually consider them worse than our oppressors.
00:58:35.000So on Independence Day, it's important to reflect on the fact that we are an occupied nation.
00:58:39.000Now, just like then, we're being ruled by a small country across an ocean, serving itself at our expense.
00:58:46.000And as long as that is the case, I will always be obsessed with that.
00:58:49.000As long as that is the case, I will always be speaking out against that and fighting against that.
00:58:53.000And I will always be anchored, understanding that that is the fundamental struggle.
00:58:57.000As long as our presidents have to kiss the wall in Israel and wear a small hat, as long as they have to say that we want to make Israel great again and they're the greatest country ever, and I will never be okay with that.
00:59:55.000This is not a timeline going back to 1948.
00:59:58.000What had just happened before the 2016 election?
01:00:01.000Barack Obama created the joint comprehensive plan of action, the JCPOA, or the Iranian nuclear deal.
01:00:10.000And Barack Obama brought together China, Russia, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States and the European Union to enforce a nuclear deal that restricts Iran's enrichment of uranium.
01:00:24.000The early talks were conducted in secret, and the Israelis were furious, furious about this.
01:00:32.000Netanyahu went to a joint session of Congress and gave a speech in defiance of the American president and its nuclear deal, and Congress gave 37 standing ovations.
01:00:43.000This is the background of Trump's first election.
01:02:06.000They colluded with Trump to get him elected so that Trump would do maximum pressure and create a ladder of escalation, pulling us out of the deal, declaring the IRGC terrorists, then killing its leader, putting sanctions on the regime.
01:02:20.000This is a war that started a long time ago, that Trump made hot in 2018, and has been going on for seven years.
01:14:47.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
01:14:52.000We're being slowly poisoned and, in some cases, quickly murdered and assassinated.
01:14:58.000And we're killing ourselves every day.
01:15:01.000Inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
01:15:06.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
01:15:13.000People have got to start to get courageous.
01:15:16.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
01:15:31.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
01:15:34.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
01:15:38.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
01:15:45.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
01:15:48.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
01:16:53.000When I get home, I want you I got places to be Sing, everybody You're watching America First.
01:17:55.000That America was different because we are different.
01:18:14.000Palantir is an AI data analytics company.
01:18:19.000They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
01:18:26.000If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
01:18:44.000Palantir comes in and interprets the data using algorithm, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
01:33:10.000If we don't have freedom on the internet in the age of AI, we are going to be mind raped every day forever.
01:33:18.000Think about anything you've ever said or done in the vicinity of your phone's camera or microphone, everything you've ever put into your phone, and even things that are not necessarily so scandalous, but even things like your favorite restaurants, your geo-location, because your phone also has a GPS.
01:33:40.000They have access to your bank account.
01:33:42.000AI will literally know everything about you.
01:33:46.000Everyone you know, your relationship to them, your tastes, your preferences, your habits, your whereabouts, your routines, your schedule, when you're asleep.
01:33:56.000They know how much REM sleep you're getting.
01:34:00.000They know how many calories you consume.
01:34:02.000Think about the ways that they can manipulate you.
01:34:05.000You have a computer in your refrigerator, computer in your car, computer in your home security system, computer in your everything, computer in your clothes, your watch, your glasses, your VR headset, your alarm clock.
01:34:17.000You have a smart home, economy of things.
01:34:20.000It's like total, like, rape of everybody by the system forever.
01:34:36.000My life is like a first-person video game, you know?
01:35:35.000These material appetites, they will never be satisfied.
01:35:40.000And even if they are, it'll never be an adequate substitute for communion with our Holy Father, with somebody, with the author of the world.
01:35:49.000Every mother and father understands the love for a child.
01:47:46.000Poop poop scoop diddy whoop whoop diddy scoop whoop did he scoop My love has got no money, he's got his strong beliefs My love has got no power, he's got his strong beliefs My love has got no fame, He's got his strong beliefs.
01:48:02.000My love has got no money, he's got his strong beliefs One.
01:48:06.000More and more People just want more and more freedom and love.
01:48:14.000More and more People just want more and more freedom and love.
01:48:20.000What he's looking for, Freed from desire, Mind and senses purified, Freed from desire, Mine and senses purified, Freed from desire, Mine and senses purified, freed from desire, Is something involved where we have to forgive them.
01:48:43.000We do have to forgive them for their ignorance.
01:48:45.000We do have to forgive them for their misunderstanding.
01:48:49.000And we have to embrace them and say, better late than never.
01:59:13.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
01:59:17.000We're being slowly poisoned and in some cases quickly murdered and assassinated.
01:59:24.000And we're killing ourselves every day.
01:59:26.000Inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
01:59:31.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
01:59:39.000People have got to start to get courageous.
01:59:42.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
01:59:56.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
02:00:00.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
02:00:03.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
02:00:10.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
02:00:14.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
02:00:25.000Americanism, not globalism, will be our Twitter.
02:03:33.000We didn't get a chance to cover this because it was announced on Saturday.
02:03:38.000But on Saturday, Trump issued to date what might be the most destabilizing ultimatum against Iran.
02:03:47.000He said on Saturday that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened in 48 hours, that Trump, Israel, maybe even Saudi Arabia would engage Iran in an all-out attack on Iran's energy infrastructure.
02:04:03.000Iran said they would retaliate and they would bomb the energy in the Gulf, as well as potentially the desalination in the United Arab Emirates, which would be like the end of the Middle East as we know it.
02:06:41.000At the same time, every single time that Trump makes a threat like this against Russia, against China, even the Democrats, he always backs down.
02:06:51.000I said, so it seems like basically an impossible situation.
02:06:57.000On the one hand, you have World War III.
02:06:59.000On the one hand, you have a total economic collapse.
02:07:02.000On the other hand, you have the mother of all.
02:07:08.000And so I know everybody was watching and waiting to see as the hours counted down over the weekend, what is Trump ultimately going to decide?
02:07:16.000And then this morning, literally buzzer beater at the last minute, Trump comes out and says, ah, you know what?
02:08:43.000I don't know if this was the case in the first term in the first administration, but at least in the second administration, it seems that every statement, every action, almost everything that Trump does is a calculated deception to manipulate the stock market, commodities trade, and financial markets.
02:09:04.000And so we're going to talk all about that tonight.
02:09:07.000And we're going to get to the bottom of exactly what is going on here.
02:09:11.000It's a little bit confusing because, like I said, when you consider the timing, it looks like this is some kind of financial manipulation.
02:09:20.000It seems very obvious that that's what this entire thing was.
02:09:24.000This was using our leverage over the weekend.
02:09:28.000And maybe the idea is we could compel Iran into making a deal with a threat like that.
02:09:34.000In the event that Iran doesn't listen, then we can call it off and we can salvage the markets.
02:09:42.000So in a word, it looks like that is just a complete farce when you consider, and not even just the timing of this particular ultimatum, but how the war has been carried out basically every weekend since it started.
02:09:55.000On the other hand, with that being said, we have to be careful not to say that it's a total farce, because at the same time, there's a lot of reporting that there is a deal in the works behind the scenes.
02:10:08.000And there was a big spread in the Wall Street Journal, and there was some talk from Axios, from Barack Ravid, which says that there's a handful of Middle Eastern countries that are now getting in the middle of it between the U.S. and Iran as intermediaries.
02:10:23.000And they're pleading with Washington and they're trying to leverage Iran also to come to the table and make an agreement for the sake of the entire region.
02:10:36.000We'll talk about the timing with the financial markets.
02:10:39.000We'll talk about to the extent that it's happening, if there is a deal in the works and what either side expects and what that might look like.
02:10:51.000At the same time, and this is, again, going along with the timing of all these announcements, our second part of our Iran coverage tonight, we're going to talk about this force which is being deployed to the Middle East and which is actually growing.
02:11:07.000So last week it was reported that there is a group of 2,200 Marines on amphibious assault vessels headed for the Persian Gulf.
02:11:16.000And the type of vessels that they're on and the type of unit that this is, and there are sources from the Pentagon saying this as well.
02:11:28.000It looks like Trump is preparing to invade part of Iran, whether that's one of the islands in the Persian Gulf, an island in the Strait of Hormuz, or maybe just a beachhead on Iran's coastline.
02:11:40.000It looks like Trump is preparing some kind of ground operation in Iran.
02:11:46.000And this is why they're being a little bit cagey about their rhetoric about the conflict.
02:12:21.000We're not going to be engaged in a full-scale, full-spectrum, multi-domain ground conflict like Iraqi freedom.
02:12:28.000They're saying, however, we do reserve the right and the possibility that we might deploy a narrow and limited ground force, a special force operation, Delta forces, Navy SEALs, Marines, something like that, for a more limited tactical objective.
02:12:47.000And some of those objectives they floated out are securing Iran's enriched uranium, taking Karg Island, which is the hub for Iran's oil export, taking an island in the Strait of Hormuz so that they can gain control over the strait.
02:13:03.000Whatever the operation is, they're trying to have it both ways where they're going to say it's not really boots on the ground, but at the same time, it's a ground operation.
02:13:13.000There's going to quite literally be American soldiers on the ground in Iran, whether it's on the islands or it's on the mainland.
02:13:20.000There's going to be boots on the ground.
02:13:21.000They're just saying it's not going to be 200,000.
02:13:24.000It's not going to be, like I said, on the scale of Iraq.
02:13:30.000So to them, the way they're branding it is that this is not a major ground operation.
02:13:35.000So while you have this ultimatum playing out over the weekend where Trump is threatening to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure and Iran is threatening to retaliate and now they're giving Iran this five-day reprieve, while all of this is playing out in the background, you've got Marines headed to the Persian Gulf.
02:13:55.000And now it's just been reported today, Trump is planning to deploy airborne troops.
02:14:01.000The 82nd Airborne is being moved to the Middle East, being put on high alert.
02:14:06.000This is a group of 3,000 soldiers, and they're not Marines.
02:14:10.000They're not amphibious assault units like the ships that are currently en route to the Persian Gulf.
02:14:19.000They can go anywhere in the world with 18 hours' notice.
02:14:23.000They don't carry heavy equipment or anything like that.
02:14:26.000But these guys are now being put on alert potentially to reinforce the Marines once they make their landing.
02:14:35.000Now, the timeline for this, which again gets back to we have to talk about when this stuff is all playing out, the timeline for the Marines and the 82nd Airborne to arrive is this weekend.
02:14:49.000So our big story is about what happened this past weekend, which is that Trump made his grand ultimatum, this grand gesture.
02:14:58.000We're going to destroy the global energy market.
02:15:28.000At the same time that we have this reprieve, that this operation has been postponed, you still have now what appears to be a pretty serious ground force moving into position for the attack.
02:15:42.000So you almost wonder, did Trump extend the deadline by a week because he's waiting for the Marines to get there?
02:15:50.000Because then the Marines and the 82nd Airborne are going to attack next weekend?
02:16:23.000We'll get into what precisely is happening.
02:16:26.000But it appears, at least for now, this is our second aspect of it, that the Pentagon, the military planners, Central Command, they have not abandoned their plans to invade Iran in some capacity.
02:16:41.000And so I think we're going to see that before the war is over.
02:16:44.000So we're going to talk all about the timeline.
02:16:46.000We'll talk about the force package and we'll try to spell out the pattern of how we got to this point.
02:16:52.000Because I think if you look at how the war started over the past three weeks, how the war has been conducted, it tells us a lot about what we just witnessed in the past few days and where we're going potentially in the next two to three weeks.
02:17:08.000So we're going to talk all about that.
02:17:11.000It's another day talking about the war in Iran.
02:17:14.000Before we get into it, I want to remind you to smash the follow button on Rumble, smash the like button, leave a comment, let me know what you think about the show.
02:17:22.000Remember to check out our merch store, Fuentes.store.
02:17:26.000We're going to have our brand new spring collection dropping tomorrow.
02:17:31.000So I know I said it was going to come out today, but we had some back end issues.
02:17:38.000Tomorrow, for sure, we have our brand new spring collection dropping.
02:17:43.000I think you're really going to like it.
02:17:45.000Like I said, our winter collection, a lot of people loved it.
02:19:10.000And if you subscribe for $30 a month, you get an AI-powered search engine.
02:19:15.000And a lot of people are getting a kick out of this because you can use the AI search engine to find every time I've talked about a particular topic.
02:19:26.000So some of the clippers find it useful.
02:19:28.000And some people just like to take a stroll down memory lane.
02:19:33.000And it's funny because I think a lot of people wouldn't want an AI-powered search algorithm because then you'd see a lot of wrong predictions, inconsistency, changing positions.
02:21:23.000Sometimes I drop them before the show, sometimes after, sometimes on the weekend.
02:21:28.000And I also hang out in the group chat as well and answer questions, talk to people, all that kind of stuff.
02:21:36.000And so I've been very active in there over the past week, giving a lot of moment-by-moment coverage and breaking news on the unfolding situation in Iran.
02:21:47.000So if you want more, if you want more analysis, more show, that's the place to go.
02:23:00.000I'm on Twitter and I look at a tweet and then I go to the replies and without fail, it's like every single reply on every single tweet is AI now.
02:23:13.000And the problem with AI is that unlike the spam bots that you used to have on Twitter, the AI, it almost appears organic enough that you actually have to read it to realize it's AI.
02:23:28.000It's like the way that it's formatted, the way it's written.
02:23:32.000Because if it was a spam bot, it would be filled with emojis or it would have like italicized characters and writing, or it would be the same message.
02:23:42.000You know, it'd be like, you know, something in bio, whatever.
02:23:47.000Now the AI they produce, if you just look at it without reading it, it just looks like a normal post.
02:23:53.000Then you read it and you realize this is just chat GPT.
02:25:03.000And then it's AI reading all the AI posts.
02:25:07.000That's now the data set that trains the AI that then makes additional posts.
02:25:13.000So we're in this like recursive AI content creation loop.
02:25:17.000But the other thing, which is maybe besides the point a little bit, and again, a lot of people don't remember this, but wasn't the whole point of Elon acquiring Twitter in the first place to crack down on spam?
02:25:32.000I know that wasn't maybe the central reason.
02:25:35.000The central reason was obviously political influence.
02:25:39.000And maybe he buttressed that by saying it was about free speech and it's about making sure that everything that is legal is allowed on the platform.
02:25:49.000I forget he had a slogan about that, but basically saying as long as it's allowed by the First Amendment, then it should be allowed on Twitter.
02:25:58.000But he also made this big push back in 22 and 23.
02:26:02.000He said, the big reason I'm taking over Twitter is because of all the spam.
02:26:06.000He said, spam is out of control, and that is artificially inflating Twitter's metrics.
02:26:12.000And that's actually, it constitutes a form of fraud because Twitter's business model is advertising.
02:26:19.000And they quantify the ad payments based on the engagement.
02:26:22.000If all the content and the following base and the user base is spam accounts, then all the numbers are cooked.
02:26:31.000And that means that probably Twitter is overvalued significantly.
02:26:35.000And anyway, so Elon came in in 23 and said, the problem with Twitter is spam.
02:26:41.000I'm going to get at the helm at Twitter and I'm going to get rid of all the spam and we're going to improve the platform.
02:26:49.000And the irony is, I don't even think that was a problem at all.
02:26:54.000I don't know about you, but back in 2022 and before then, spam was almost never a problem.
02:27:29.000And I said this on the show the other week.
02:27:32.000I feel like this is the worst phase of technology to date.
02:27:39.000Not to go full boomer, not to go full and prim, whatever.
02:27:45.000But it was bad enough when we had Facebook, YouTube, iPhones, and texting.
02:27:52.000Now that you have X short form video content and AI, I really think this is like a long-term and fundamental problem, especially for the young people, but for the whole society.
02:28:06.000This is really getting out of control.
02:28:07.000And I feel like that's not really talked about a lot, but we all see it.
02:28:38.000They're all some species of like pro-West America defender, Trump girl, 1776, whatever.
02:28:47.000And even as a dissident right, whatever you want to call it, even as a far-right anti-war, Israel critical influencer, that's my whole timeline is AI spam, NPC spam.
02:29:03.000It's like relationship stuff, like just like the most slop, low IQ, normie observations.
02:30:09.000I honestly thought on Saturday, I said, there's no way he's walking away from this.
02:30:16.000Because my gut, and I'll explain it in just a moment, but my gut was he always chickens out every time he does this with Russia, with China, with North Korea, with Europe, with Canada, with Mexico.
02:30:31.000He always makes these big over-the-top threats and ultimatums.
02:30:37.000And then invariably, every time, he always chickens out.
02:30:43.000And so he'll tell Russia: you've got 60 days to make a deal, or else, I don't know, something's going to happen.
02:30:52.000And then we arrive at the deadline, and Trump says, you know, never mind.
02:30:59.000He'll say with China, if China puts tariffs, if they retaliate with tariffs against our tariffs, well, then we're going to increase it to 100% and then 200% and then China retaliates with tariffs and then Trump begs Beijing to back off.
02:31:18.000So this has been the pattern over the past year and a half.
02:31:23.000You had this in the first administration, but it's really a problem in the second term.
02:31:29.000So on Saturday, Trump issues this huge ultimatum against Iran.
02:31:33.000I didn't get a chance to cover it because I didn't do a show on Saturday.
02:31:37.000But over the weekend, Trump puts out on True Social this huge threat and says, if Iran doesn't open up the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours, then we are going to destroy their energy infrastructure.
02:31:52.000We're going to destroy their oil, their natural gas, all their critical infrastructure.
02:31:58.000As we have talked about up until this point, this is the nuclear option.
02:32:03.000Not the literal nuclear option, which might still be on the table, but this is a huge red line in the conflict across.
02:32:10.000If he did that, it would constitute a significant escalation, which Trump has been trying to avoid, actually.
02:32:18.000And we talked about this all last week.
02:32:21.000The reason that Trump and the United States don't want to make this an energy war is because, one, an energy war of any kind will constrain the global energy supply and cause inflation.
02:32:41.000It all runs fundamentally on electricity and fossil fuels.
02:32:45.000And even the electricity runs on fossil fuels for the most part also.
02:32:50.000So if we attack Iran's energy, we constrain all the energy and prices go up.
02:32:55.000But then additionally, Iran can do the same thing to us and our energy providers.
02:33:02.000And so what we do to them, they will visit upon us and the effect is compounded.
02:33:07.000They will attack the energy in Saudi Arabia, in Qatar, elsewhere, and that will further constrain the energy supply, further increase prices.
02:33:16.000So that's why this is a really big deal.
02:33:18.000Trump says if they don't open up the strait, which they're surely not going to do, if they don't open up the strait, we're going to decimate their energy.
02:33:27.000Predictably, Iran almost immediately comes out and threatens exactly that.
02:33:34.000Iran's foreign minister comes out within hours of Trump's statement and says, well, if the United States bombs our energy, we'll bomb Saudi Arabia.
02:34:20.000So if we get hit in that way, which technically is a war crime, then we will not only retaliate against the Gulf energy infrastructure, Saudi Aramco, Qatari, LNG, and other energy infrastructure, but Iran says also we will attack other civilian infrastructure like desalination.
02:34:44.000Now, if you know anything about the Arabian Peninsula, it's a desert.
02:36:15.000Whatever we do to them, they maintain the ability to launch drones and ballistic missiles because of the mobility, the abundance, how cheap and economical these weapon systems are.
02:36:29.000And so we can literally drop nukes on them.
02:36:33.000We can drop the biggest conventional ordinance on them.
02:36:36.000We can hit them as hard as possible with our whole arsenal.
02:36:44.000And they would still maintain the ability to launch missiles from the shoulder or from the back of a pickup truck going 100 miles an hour on the coast.
02:36:53.000They could still launch drones that can and will hit the desalination plant, Saudi Aramco, Qatari's LNG facilities, and inflict severe detrimental problems on the Gulf countries and then the global economy.
02:37:10.000So this is why we didn't want to take it there because whatever we do to Iran, they could always do something worse to us, something that we actually cannot tolerate.
02:37:19.000And so this is why I say Trump makes this threat on Saturday, and he's really putting his credibility on the line because it wasn't exactly ambiguous.
02:37:30.000There wasn't a lot of wiggle room here.
02:37:32.000Trump said in all capital letters, you have 48 hours.
02:37:37.000Open up the strait or else, if you don't open the strait in 48 hours, we're attacking Bushir, we're attacking your electrical grid, we're attacking your power plants, and that's it.
02:37:49.000And that's your last chance for peace.
02:37:54.000Now, the reason that this is a bit conflicting is because you say, on the one hand, Trump always chickens out.
02:38:02.000So if this is like all the other threats that Trump has given over the past two years or year and a half, well, he'll probably back down.
02:38:12.000Because as I said, there's a quick survey of examples.
02:38:15.000There was the trade war with China almost exactly a year ago today, where Trump chickened out.
02:38:22.000There was his ultimatum or actually series of threats against Russia over the entire course of last year, where Trump always backed down and chickened out.
02:38:33.000And so you see this threat over the weekend and say, surely, this is not serious.
02:38:39.000Because if Trump follows through, and almost certainly he's going to have to, Iran maintains this capability.
02:38:47.000They're not going to open up the strait.
02:39:23.000They will not open up the strait and Trump is going to have to say, forget it, never mind.
02:39:29.000At the same time, as we've talked about in this conflict so far, we are in a stalemate.
02:39:37.000And the stalemate consists in the fact, as we've just discussed, that Iran maintains escalation dominance.
02:39:44.000There's nothing we can do to Iran to either A, topple their regime and destroy the personnel that are carrying out and prosecuting the war, or two, suppress their ability to inflict damage on infrastructure in the Gulf and against the United States and Israel and close the Strait of Hormuz.
02:40:04.000So if there's nothing that we can do to escalate and win, then the only available option is either we got to stick it out and fight a war of attrition.
02:40:14.000We have to fight literally until Iran runs out of ammunition or personnel or until their society collapses after a prolonged siege, which is devastating for us, or, and this is the most likely outcome, we have to retreat.
02:40:32.000We will have to retreat without achieving all of our objectives.
02:40:36.000We will have to leave the Iranian regime intact.
02:40:39.000They effectively exercised a veto over our war using the Strait of Hormuz, which means that now we ceded control of the Strait and therefore the global energy market to Iran.
02:40:52.000And even though we've inflicted a lot of damage on Iran's military, they will be able to say for those reasons, it's a strategic victory for them.
02:41:01.000They will say the U.S. and Israel threw everything at us and we survived.
02:41:22.000Iran has reestablished deterrence over the U.S. and Israel.
02:41:28.000Whereas in the past, the U.S. and Israel provoked Iran repeatedly and confronted Iran and seemed fearless in provoking and confronting Iran because they made assumptions that they could defeat Iran.
02:41:43.000Now, Iran is able to say, well, you tried it and you failed.
02:41:55.000And so now in the future, you will be less likely to confront us again because you saw what we're made of and you saw what you're up against.
02:42:04.000You saw that in the end, there's nothing you can do.
02:42:07.000We're too big, too many people, our bench is too deep, we have too many drones and missiles.
02:42:14.000So in the future, you're not going to try it.
02:42:16.000We have effectively deterred you from intervening again.
02:42:24.000The reason that Trump wants to escalate to de-escalate, the reason that Trump wants to find a way to exert leverage against Iran through escalation, without boots on the ground, without nukes, to break the stalemate,
02:42:39.000is because he knows, and the military planners know, and Israel knows, that if we just walk away without any grand finale, without a climax, without actually achieving anything tangible or persuasive, that we can tell people that we won, then that is what it looks like.
02:43:00.000It looks like we went whole hog, we didn't get what we wanted, we shrugged, and we walked away.
02:43:08.000And the whole world has taken notice, Iran included, and their people, that Iran won the war.
02:43:15.000So what Trump is trying to do to break the stalemate is he is going to have to, in a way, bluff his way out of this.
02:43:25.000In order to avert a situation where he loses face and gives Iran that strategic victory, he's going to have to find a way to land a blow against Iran in a way that doesn't escalate out of control, where we're invading or bringing boots on the ground or there's serious casualties or there's some humiliating American tactical defeat.
02:43:49.000He's going to need to inflict some kind of blow to increase leverage, to extract some concession, and that is your escalate to de-escalate.
02:44:02.000Increasing the firepower in a creative way to achieve a tactical victory so that we can retreat with honor, withdraw with some dignity.
02:44:12.000And that way we break the stalemate, we exit the conflict without losing face, without losing deterrence, without handing Iran that strategic victory.
02:44:24.000So what is very important about all of this is credibility.
02:44:29.000If Trump is telling Iran, hey, we don't care, we'll destroy your energy.
02:44:35.000And even if you retaliate, hey, see if we care.
02:45:01.000He's got to bluff his way out of this.
02:45:03.000He needs to convince them he's serious that he might invade, that he might send a ground force in, that he's willing to drag this on for 100 days.
02:45:13.000I think that's what a lot of these leaks and planted stories and even logistical moves are about.
02:45:19.000When they say we're preparing for a 100-day conflict or going into September or the fall, what they are signaling to Iran is don't think you're going to stick it out.
02:45:33.000Don't think you're going to wait us out and you're going to bleed us with oil.
02:45:37.000They're almost communicating an irrationality.
02:45:43.000They're telling Iran, if you think that you've got us by the balls, if you think that you're going to use the oil market to hurt us economically and you're going to force our hand and you're going to somehow get out of this scot-free, you're mistaken because we're settling in for the long haul.
02:45:59.000And I think that's why they make those moves.
02:46:02.000Because every time you see a statement like that, every time you see a story like that that says we're moving intelligence and logistics personnel down to Florida until September, when they say we need $200 billion to fight a six-month war, when they say these things, we're going to hear that and groan and say, oh, another forever war.
02:46:27.000When Trump says, we're considering boots on the ground, I don't care about the poll numbers.
02:46:34.000We groan, but Iran says maybe they're serious.
02:46:38.000And then the planners in Iran have to wonder, are we overplaying our hand?
02:46:43.000Because if there's a chance that the U.S. and Israel are crazy enough to stick it out, if they think, again, and they might not be certain, but that's all they need is a seat of doubt.
02:46:56.000If they have any doubt that the Strait of Hormuz strategy is working or not, and they think maybe the U.S. can tolerate the hit to energy, the hit to the economy, that they have an appetite for a protracted attritional conflict at a low level, well, they're going to start to ponder their mortality.
02:47:14.000And they're going to wonder, how much of this can we take?
02:47:18.000Sure, we can close the strait and it will cause inflation and there will be some difficult correction in the U.S. economy, but we're literally going to get assassinated.
02:47:29.000In a long enough timeline, if the war does go on until the summer or the fall, the leadership might actually get killed.
02:47:38.000And with all these airstrikes at this pace, thousands of airstrikes every day, maybe we won't have a military by the end of this and maybe Iranian society will collapse.
02:47:49.000But in order for Trump to achieve that effect, he needs them to be confident in his threats.
02:47:55.000He needs credibility to reestablish deterrence in the other direction.
02:48:01.000And so this is why on Saturday, when Trump made the threat, I said, although he always chickens out, he's going to have to follow through.
02:48:11.000Because although Iran's retaliation against our energy would be devastating if Trump followed through, if he chickens out, it might be worse.
02:48:23.000Because chickening out causes us to lose credibility, lose face, and then we lose our ability, we lose our credibility to bluff and convince Iran that they don't have us by the balls.
02:49:09.000If Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz within the new timeline, which is by the end of this week, then we will carry out the strikes.
02:49:17.000He said, but we're postponing it because we're actually making progress on a deal.
02:49:24.000Trump says that his administration has spoken to the Iranian regime and they have made progress on a framework for a deal, one where the U.S. and Iran might actually work together.
02:49:36.000And Trump also implied that the deal is almost finalized.
02:49:41.000He said that every point of agreement, or rather every point of contention, has been resolved and they agree on all the fundamentals and Iran has agreed to share the strait and give up nuclear enrichment and give up their highly enriched material and all these things.
02:49:59.000And this is just in the first place, who even believes this?
02:50:05.000At 7.30 a.m., Trump comes out in the press pool and on True Social and first of all says, never mind, forget the 48-hour deadline.
02:51:41.000Iran has said, even when the conflict ends, there will be a new dynamic in the Strait of Hormuz, meaning they want control over the Strait the way that Egypt has control over the Suez.
02:51:55.000And if you don't know what that means, it means they want sovereignty over it.
02:51:59.000They want the Strait of Hormuz to be effectively Iranian territory.
02:52:03.000And that means they want to charge a toll.
02:52:07.000So all the shipping that goes through, just like the shipping that goes through Panama and just like the shipping that goes through the Suez, they want to extract a fee, a toll on all the shipping that goes through.
02:52:56.000And their demands, if you read them last week, are opposites.
02:53:00.000Iran demands that the U.S. leave all its military bases in the Middle East and pay reparations and give them control of the strait and never attack Iran again.
02:53:14.000And the U.S. demands are that Iran cannot have any ballistic missiles and they cannot have nuclear enrichment and they have to give over their highly enriched uranium.
02:53:24.000And these are, so these two positions are completely the opposite.
02:53:29.000And yet Trump in the press pool says it's basically a done deal.
02:53:39.000And we're going to get to the bottom of it.
02:53:40.000This is a story from the Wall Street Journal.
02:53:42.000We'll work through some of these announcements and then we'll talk about a few different aspects of this.
02:53:48.000It says, quote, on Saturday night, President Trump, who spent the weekend at his Mar-a-Lago club, gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the U.S. military would obliterate the country's power plants.
02:54:04.000Two days later, as word of the discussions in Riyadh made its way to the White House, Trump reversed course, embracing diplomacy with Tehran and putting his threatened strikes on hold.
02:54:15.000Trump's shift Monday morning followed a series of closed-door discussions through Middle Eastern intermediaries that U.S. officials said gave them hope that an agreement to settle the conflict was possible.
02:54:27.000It also reflected a growing desire by Trump and some of his advisors to bring the war to a close.
02:54:32.000Trump's announcement that he would postpone for five days strikes on Iranian power plants triggered a stock market rally, giving the president a small reprieve after weeks of pain on Wall Street.
02:54:44.000But Arab mediators privately expressed skepticism that the U.S. and Iran could quickly reach an agreement, noting that the two sides remained far apart.
02:54:52.000Trump's assertion that the talks were productive was met with pushback from Iranian officials who denied that the discussions were taking place.
02:55:01.000So, like I said, we don't even know what's going on.
02:55:05.000Trump is lying, and we really have no clue how much of this is the fog of war, how much of this is just BS from Trump.
02:55:15.000It goes on, it says, as a condition of any deal to end the war, Iran is demanding that the U.S. and Israel pledge not to launch future attacks.
02:55:25.000Tehran is pushing for compensation for damages sustained during the war.
02:55:30.000The U.S. still wants what it sought from Iran before the war started, which is the dismantling of Tehran's nuclear complex, a suspension of its ballistic missile program, and a stop to its support for proxy militias.
02:55:43.000Mohamed Bager Ghalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker and one of the country's top remaining officials, suggested Monday that Tehran wasn't yet ready for negotiations with Washington.
02:55:57.000He wrote in English a few hours after Trump's comments, quote, Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors.
02:56:06.000He said that such optimism about negotiations is, quote, used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped.
02:57:00.000But there's all these rumors that some Iranian personnel are indirectly talking to some American personnel about how to bring the war to a close.
02:57:11.000And this is being brokered, like I said, by other regional powers.
02:57:15.000Now, I wouldn't read too much into this because as it stands right now, these Arab intermediaries, they seem to have no influence at all.
02:57:27.000It was these Arab intermediaries that tried to get the U.S. and Iran together for this second round of negotiations a month ago.
02:57:37.000It was Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates, Oman, Turkey, Pakistan, all these Egypt, all these countries.
02:57:44.000They all tried in February to get the U.S. and Iran back together in a room, which they then did in Oman, in Switzerland, to try to hash it out, and it didn't work.
02:57:58.000And they are lobbying the United States to try to de-escalate the conflict even now.
02:58:03.000Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates, they want us to finish Iran off, but they want the war over because they cannot sustain these attacks on their infrastructure.
02:58:13.000It's destroying their real estate, tourism, banking industries, not to mention energy, not to mention the trade that's been disrupted with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
02:58:46.000Saturday, Trump makes this ultimatum and says that Iran has to open up the strait or else.
02:58:53.000Now, as I said at the top of the show, one of the theories here, one of the working theories is that everything that Trump does, all of these bellicose threats, all of the biggest operations, they always happen during the weekend.
02:59:09.000And I'm talking about just in the past several weeks since this war started.
02:59:15.000If you recall, the war started on Friday at midnight, which is in the middle of the daytime in Iran.
02:59:24.000Normally, you don't launch your all-out ambush sneak attack during the day because you want to do it under the cover of darkness.
02:59:33.000So why did they do it at midnight on Friday?
03:00:05.000Well, the reason is any war in the Persian Gulf is going to cause significant pain in the stock market because oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and other essential commodities, helium, as well as aluminum, many things, especially things that are needed for data centers, technology, that all moves through the Persian Gulf and out the Strait of Hormuz.
03:00:31.000Everybody knows you bomb Iran, Strait of Hormuz is closed, and you're going to get an economic catastrophe.
03:00:40.000So in other words, Trump waits for the markets to close to basically cuck all the traders and investors.
03:00:50.000They see the writing on the wall, which is that there's going to be a global energy crisis followed by a food shortage, followed by the entire AI bubble is going to burst in that order.
03:01:02.000You bomb Iran, they close the Strait of Hormuz.
03:01:30.000That's going to cause all inflation to rise.
03:01:33.000Without helium, without other components, the cost of electricity coupled with the cost of components for data centers is going to make all of these AI companies not profitable because they run on energy and commodities that go through the strait.
03:01:49.000And that is the source of all the GDP growth for the past year.
03:01:52.000So you have these cascading effects that all the traders and investors know about, but they can't do anything about it until Monday.
03:02:03.000So Trump launches the attack Friday night, and they say the war will last four days.
03:02:12.000Because by the third day, from you also have the timing that it was the Jewish holiday of Purim, which was on Monday, which is interesting.
03:02:21.000And that's when the Jews commemorate the slaughter of 80,000 Iranians after they win a war against them.
03:02:29.000They want to launch the war on Friday after markets close, fight really hard through Saturday, through Sunday, hoping that by Monday morning, it's almost over.
03:02:42.000And by Monday morning, everybody is relieved.
03:03:19.000Bombed all the military assets, not the energy, but the military assets, the runway strip and the dock and all the military assets, also on a Friday.
03:03:32.000And then this weekend launches this ultimatum on Saturday night.
03:03:41.000And the question is, did Trump do all of this so that by Monday morning, if Iran did not open up the strait, then Trump could call it all off and he could say, well, we're not going to hit Iran anymore.
03:04:27.000Everything collapsed on Saturday because again, all the investors and traders priced in that we're going to be rebuilding the energy economy for the next five years.
03:04:39.000If Trump bombs these power plants and Iran bombs, they unleash on LNG oil and desalination, it's over.
03:04:56.000And all of a sudden, when the markets open a half hour later, everything rallies.
03:05:02.000And so whereas the market lost $2 trillion on Saturday, it made up about half of that minutes after Trump's announcement on Monday morning.
03:05:12.000And you have to wonder, first of all, clearly there is a calculated deception going on.
03:05:20.000This is part of U.S. tactics and strategy.
03:05:23.000You cannot trust the government in a time of war because what the government says and does is also read and heard and seen by the enemy.
03:08:25.000Because Trump does this all the time, where he puts out something on True Social or something on TV or in a press pool.
03:08:35.000And as you know, it does affect the markets.
03:08:37.000And trillions of dollars are made and lost on a whim based on what he says, based on what he tweets.
03:08:46.000He controls the movement of all that wealth and all that, all of that stuff.
03:08:53.000If you knew just 10 minutes before that post was going out, you could have made a lot of money.
03:09:02.000You could have placed a lot of big bets and you could have made millions, billions, depending on what kind of capital you're working with.
03:09:10.000And so you got to wonder, if you knew that that announcement was coming on Saturday, and if you knew that that announcement was coming on Monday based on conversations with the president, or you knew some other way, you could have made a fortune shorting everything on Saturday and then making money on Monday.
03:10:14.000But if every post that goes out concerning tariffs, concerning trade, war with Russia, war with Iran, if all of that is known in advance by advisors and leaked to other people, well, there could be a lot of cronies that are being enriched by that true social account.
03:11:01.000It's a confidence game between the U.S. and Iran.
03:11:04.000It's a confidence game in the markets, in the U.S. market.
03:11:09.000And this is why Trump does the most provocative, destabilizing things during the weekend.
03:11:15.000And I think tends to exercise more restraint during the week because he knows that a vital aspect of this attritional war is that reassurance and making sure that the economy doesn't completely melt down in the early stages of the war.
03:11:31.000And like I said, I think that's just undeniable at this point.
03:11:34.000But let's talk about the larger point.
03:11:37.000So as we said, we're in this stalemate.
03:11:39.000And where we left off last week is that Trump is looking for a creative way to break the stalemate.
03:11:51.000As we discussed, that is an island in the Persian Gulf, about 300 miles northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
03:11:59.000This is where 90% of all of Iran's oil and energy is exported.
03:12:05.000That's where it's picked up on tankers and then it moves to its final destination.
03:12:10.000It was two weeks ago that Trump launched a huge air campaign against the island, not attacking its energy infrastructure, but against its military assets.
03:12:21.000And then the following day, Trump authorized an Israeli strike on Iran's gas fields, the southern Pars gas fields, which has so much gas alone in that field, it could power the world for years.
03:12:41.000And as we talked about, what those two developments showed is that potentially the United States is inching towards an energy war, which would mark a significant escalation.
03:12:56.000It has become an attritional economic war.
03:12:59.000And it is a question of the economics of missiles and interceptors, the air and sea campaign of the United States, and the drone and missile capability of Iran.
03:13:09.000The military pain we can inflict on Iranian personnel and hardware, and the economic pain they can inflict on the Gulf and the world economy with their strikes on the strait and on the GCC nations.
03:13:26.000And Trump is looking for a way out of it.
03:13:30.000We don't seem to be able to stop Iran from closing the strait.
03:13:33.000We don't seem to be able to topple their government or suppress their other fire against Israel, U.S. assets, and the Gulf.
03:13:42.000Although we are hitting them very hard.
03:13:45.000As long as the war goes on, we are paying the price economically because the price of energy, the price of food is going up and is threatening our very fragile economy, which is emerging from stagflation.
03:13:59.000Now, the only realm in which Trump seems to be able to escalate is this third avenue into the realm of energy.
03:14:09.000We're using all of our air power, all of our sea power, and we can't achieve our objectives.
03:14:14.000We don't want to walk away, but we also don't want to use ground force.
03:14:19.000We don't want to use a nuclear weapon, which is how we control the escalation ladder.
03:14:24.000So, what can we do that's short of nuking them, short of an invasion, but also is a way to increase leverage against Iran so that we don't have to retreat and surrender?
03:14:37.000Trump is looking for options in that area.
03:14:40.000He's looking for options that fit that criterion.
03:14:44.000And it seems that the only leverage we can have over them, because we're bombing their personnel, we're bombing their military hardware, we're bombing their bases, regime targets, we're bombing everything, their nuclear infrastructure, even this weekend.
03:15:00.000What can we increase without increasing too much?
03:15:04.000And it seems that the only category of targets that fits that criteria is energy.
03:15:10.000But as we talked about, the reason we don't want to go that far is because if we escalate the war against Iran's energy, they retaliate in exactly the same way.
03:15:23.000This is a tripwire that neither side wants to activate.
03:15:27.000If we bomb Iran's energy, they hit the Gulf, and the effects of the attrition are far worse.
03:15:34.000And Iran doesn't want to hit our energy because then they lose all their leverage.
03:15:38.000We got nothing left to lose if they hit everything in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and the other Gulf nations.
03:15:47.000So it seems that the only way that we can escalate is in that category.
03:15:52.000And yet, that's the one category that we also can't touch.
03:15:56.000And so Trump is trying to find a middle ground.
03:15:58.000How can we bluff and convince Iran that we're going for their energy without actually doing it?
03:16:06.000Because if we do it, it's 10 times worse for us.
03:16:09.000But we need them to think that we're willing to do it anyway.
03:16:13.000So maybe that's why last weekend, again, during the weekend, Trump bombs Karg Island, their number one energy hub, but not their energy, just the military assets.
03:16:25.000It's just a little too close to comfort.
03:16:56.000Well, predictably, Iran carried out their attacks, which I'm sure were planned in advance against Qatar's LNG plant, which supplies 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas.
03:20:27.000There's no agreement on any of these points between the two countries.
03:20:33.000Well, simultaneously, while all of this is happening, the United States has deployed 4,000 to 5,000 U.S. Marines on amphibious assault vehicles to the Persian Gulf from the Pacific.
03:21:11.000They've got all kinds of self-contained systems on these ships.
03:21:15.0005,000 Marines headed for the Persian Gulf.
03:21:18.000And when do they arrive in the Middle East?
03:21:21.000They will enter CENTCOM's area of responsibility by Friday.
03:21:27.000The Marines get to the Persian Gulf on Friday.
03:21:32.000And the other story from today is that not only this force, by the way, keeps being reinforced.
03:21:39.000It started with 2,200 Marines, and then it increased to 4,000 to 5,000 Marines.
03:21:45.000And they were sailing for one destination, then the timeline was accelerated and the destination changed.
03:21:53.000And now today, there are rumors from the Pentagon that the 82nd Airborne Division will join them in the Middle East to reinforce the Marines.
03:22:03.000So these are ground forces that will parachute in from the air, and they are intended to reinforce the Marines when they get to the Gulf.
03:22:17.000Well, this is a story from the New York Times.
03:22:19.000It says, quote, senior military officials are weighing a possible deployment of a combat brigade from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division and some elements of the division's headquarters staff to support U.S. operations in Iran.
03:22:33.000The combat forces would come from the 82nd Airborne's Immediate Response Force.
03:22:39.000That's a brigade of about 3,000 soldiers capable of deploying anywhere in the world within 18 hours.
03:22:45.000These forces could be used to seize Karg Island, Iran's main oil export hub.
03:22:51.000Another possibility being considered is an attack by about 2,500 troops from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is already on its way to the region.
03:23:03.000The airfield on Karg Island was damaged by the recent U.S. bombing raids.
03:23:08.000So former U.S. commanders said it was more likely to bring in Marines whose combat engineers could quickly repair airfields and other airport infrastructure.
03:23:18.000Once the airfield is repaired, the Air Force can begin flying in supplies as well as troops, if necessary, by C-130s.
03:23:27.000In that scenario, it's possible that troops from the 82nd Airborne would augment the Marines.
03:23:33.000The Marines lack the sustainment and staying power of the forces from the 82nd Airborne, which might be used to relieve the Marine forces after the initial attack on the island.
03:23:45.000So a battle plan is taking shape where the Marines will land on the island, which has already been demilitarized, right?
03:23:56.000Two weeks ago, a week and a half ago, Trump bombed the airfield.
03:27:04.000Instead of calling it a nation-building ground war where they're going to be facing IEDs and IRGC and tons of stuff on the ground that will cause significant casualties, it'll be like a modern Vietnam.
03:27:15.000We could take an unfortified tiny island that's already been bombed to Smithereens, at least the military resistance would be.
03:27:22.000And instead of destroying the energy infrastructure, which would take years to rebuild and would be taken offline for any regime, we can simply take control of it and form our own effective embargo.
03:27:36.000And so Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz.
03:27:39.000At the same time, they're able to put their energy through the strait and collect tolls.
03:27:43.000If we took control of their main energy export hub, then we would deny them the oil revenue.
03:27:49.000And we'd be able to strangle their energy sector without destroying it.
03:27:54.000And that might be the tactical victory that we need, where you can say we achieved our victory condition.
03:28:02.000One, we had a successful military operation.
03:28:12.000One, so you can't call it a defeat where we just had all our refueling aircraft blown up and people got traumatic brain injuries at the bases.
03:28:57.000And again, that goes back to it's not only the optics of winning a tactical victory, we're also able to escalate in order to achieve an acceptable peace agreement where we don't lose deterrence and give Iran an unambiguous strategic victory.
03:29:35.000And then we're able to escalate, to de-escalate.
03:29:38.000We're able to extricate ourselves from the conflict.
03:29:41.000And it looks like maybe that's the plan.
03:29:43.000And all this other stuff is just a big show.
03:29:47.000Bombing Karg Island was to prepare the way for this.
03:29:51.000Rather than inching towards an energy war, they were preparing the way for this amphibious assault.
03:29:58.000And maybe this ultimatum was a way to get everybody to take their eyes off the ball.
03:30:03.000And to the extent that there are negotiations going on, maybe that's another mirage, just like it was in February.
03:30:09.000Because it does echo the military buildup in the Middle East prior to the start of the war.
03:30:16.000It was in January when Trump began reinforcing the military in the Middle East.
03:30:22.000That is when he began sending the aircraft carriers, the Air Force, the ground personnel.
03:30:28.000That is when he started moving personnel away from the bases.
03:30:32.000And while the military was building up and preparing for this epic fury operation, there was this ruse of negotiations and there were ultimatums and there were threats and all these things were happening in the foreground.
03:30:48.000While in the background, there was a military buildup.
03:30:51.000Now that the war has started, again, in the foreground, you have the theater of ultimatums and symbolic strikes.
03:30:58.000And there's this debate, did the United States authorize a strike on the gas field or did they not?
03:31:05.000Well, quietly in the background, a tiny expeditionary force is moving into place.
03:31:12.000This rapid deployment airborne unit is also getting ready.
03:31:17.000And maybe the ground is being prepared for one of these limited tactical ground operations.
03:31:24.000And that's how you might seize victory from the jaws of defeat.
03:31:27.000What's more, there's been a lot of talk about expectations that a deal will be reached by April 9th, is what they say.
03:31:36.000There's a report that says the administration wants the war to wind down by that second week of April.
03:31:43.000If you look on polymarket, there's been a lot of positions opened up in just the last 24 hours that say that a deal is going to be reached between March 31st and I think April 7th.
03:32:49.000Iran's coastline with the Persian Gulf.
03:32:51.000And you know, they've got positions all along the coastline where they've got drones, shoulder-mounted missiles, other missile launch platforms.
03:33:01.000So you send Marines onto Karg Island, and maybe the reason they're not worried about this is because Iran won't risk launching imprecise projectiles at their moneymaker.
03:33:13.000Is Karg Island too fragile for Iran to hit with their own projectiles?
03:33:30.000Do they have a protocol in place to hit it with drones or more precise munitions?
03:33:36.000There's a lot of risks associated with this, and we don't actually know the capabilities on either side.
03:33:42.000We don't know what capabilities the United States has up its sleeve.
03:33:46.000We don't know what capabilities Iran has up its sleeve.
03:33:49.000A lot of it's confidential, and a lot of it you don't know until it happens.
03:33:53.000So we'll determine by the success of the operation if this is the right approach for the conflict.
03:33:59.000But I would say that even outside of that, if the United States seizes Karg Island, you have to anticipate that Iran is not going to readily make peace straight away.
03:34:11.000Because the United States and Israel have not fundamentally abandoned their ultimate goal, which is regime change.
03:36:14.000They're being hit by now hypersonics and more precise projectiles, drones that they don't seem to be able to shoot down all of the drones in the swarm.
03:36:23.000The United States is running out of interceptors.
03:36:26.000It's running out of these very expensive, very finite interceptors that they need to carry on this protracted conflict.
03:36:53.000That's why they're asking for $200 billion in budget reconciliation for the Pentagon so they can make more interceptors, make more stuff, accelerate that timeline in preparation for the next war, in preparation for the next time.
03:37:08.000And in the meantime, while we're allocating $200 billion, while we're replenishing our stockpile of munitions, while we're doing the things we need to do to get ready for the next conflict, at the same time, you can bet with certainty that we are on the ground in Iran building an anti-government coalition.
03:37:31.000And this is the work we hadn't done before.
03:37:34.000Now that the IRGC has been diminished and weakened, surely we are on the ground preparing the Kurds, preparing anti-government forces in Iran, maybe other secessionist elements, so that when we go in, let's say after the midterms,
03:37:50.000after the midterm elections, maybe a year from now, then we go in heavy again, fully replenished, ready to go, and we do it with our ground force waiting to meet us there that is going to take power from the Islamic regime.
03:38:05.000And I think that maybe is how this whole thing is going to shake out.
03:38:09.000You have to always think about the timelines.
03:38:12.000You have to think about the constraints.
03:38:15.000And the constraint facing Trump is the midterms.
03:38:18.000This oil crunch, we're not going to get back to normal, they say, at the minimum, within four months.
03:38:26.000They say, even if the war ended today, the minimum time to recover, to normalize after this price shock is in four months.
03:39:31.000And then they're going to call for yet another operation.
03:39:34.000And this time it's going to be fully toppling the Iranian regime because that is the goal at any cost for the Israelis, for the United States.
03:41:22.000They said the Iranians want to negotiate, but they don't trust Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner because that was a negotiating team in February.
03:42:37.000All of a sudden, they say, oh, well, the Iranians, they want to talk, but they won't talk to just anybody, not these bubble-blowing, goofy goober babies, Steve Witkoff.
03:43:19.000And so maybe that's going to be the photo op is JD Vance in Turkey, in Pakistan, with the speaker of Iran's parliament, shaking hands, making the deal.
03:44:40.000On Tuesday, Joe Kent said, I cannot, in good conscience, send young men and women to die in Iran like Israel made us do in Iraq, so I have to resign.
03:47:04.000Something is going on in the White House.
03:47:07.000It is a proxy war in our own government between organized Jewry behind Rubio and the JD Vance team, the JD Vance entity, the entity known as JD Vance, you know, SRP 44, 49, you know, whatever, 48.
03:47:32.000SCP-48, the entity known as JD Vance and that whole Borg-like entity, they're trying to salvage his candidacy, save him from organized Jewry behind Rubio, and they're going to try to save the day in Iran.
03:47:46.000And ultimately, here's the other, there's the next shoe to drop.
03:47:51.000The next shoe to drop is that Netyahu is going to be facing an election in Israel.
03:47:58.000And so maybe they want Netyahu to lose the election and to be out of the picture.
03:48:02.000So we don't restart Iran and Vance saves the day and finds peace and everything.
03:51:52.000Whatever's in, whatever is within reach is getting broken.
03:51:58.000Mugs, water bottles, keyboards, technology.
03:52:03.000Because when you crash out, if you are a legit, if you're someone that crashes out, you just see red and just go off.
03:52:12.000You don't bottle it up and say like, And then, like, get your hoodie on and get your fucking Lululemon joggers on and get in your faggot ass Toyota Corolla and drive to a strip mall and say, hi, yeah, it's me again.
03:52:29.000One session, please, one 30-minute session, one 30-minute ball-busting session.
03:53:17.000You're not, you're not a real nigga if you do that.
03:53:20.000If you can suppress it for even 10 seconds, you are not a real nigga.
03:53:25.000Real niggas are putting holes in walls, they're putting holes in bitches, and they're breaking stuff that costs money.
03:53:33.000Like, if you're not a legit crasher outer, if like 45 minutes later, you're not like, damn it, like you get mad because of how mad you got.
03:53:43.000You get mad, uncontrollably break everything, and then you get mad that you broke everything and break more stuff anyway.
03:53:54.000So, come up to Minnesota, get your anger out.
03:53:57.000It's like, bro, I'm taking my anger out on the next person I see.
03:58:13.000you i appreciate it so sent 20 take the gold sponsorship it's over i feel bad for you having to read super chats every night you know i would but they didn't even offer me that much money like Like, the person I was dealing with just misrepresented the deal.
03:58:33.000I said, well, for a million dollars, okay, maybe.
03:58:38.000And then we went back and forth for like five months.
03:58:41.000And then they're like, well, we're going to give you like, I'm not going to say the amount, but it was like significantly less for three months.
04:00:01.000Like hurdling towards 28 years old, if you can believe that.
04:00:05.000And you know what's starting to happen is like all my friends are wageies.
04:00:11.000All my friends are goy cattle, hen-pecked wage slaves, and they're making me feel like a wagey because in the old days, we were just on Fortnite all night, every night.
04:00:27.000Everybody was on the game all the time.
04:00:29.000Everybody was in the group chat, everybody was on the game all the time.
04:00:34.000But then you start getting a little bit older, and your friends graduate college, the pandemic is over, niggas are getting married.
04:00:42.000And now it's literally, you go, hey, bro, want to get on the game?
04:00:47.000He goes, I think I could play on Friday at 7:30.
04:11:34.000In the old days, the guy was the dog, the guy.
04:11:39.000In the old days, the guy was the Rolling Stone, the tramp, the dog.
04:11:45.000The guy took down 100 women and then found the Lord and then settled down with a little old lady, you know, then settled down with a virgin girl from a nice family, you know, and she forgave him for his indiscretion.
04:20:44.000So we take literally the next exit looking for food.
04:20:47.000We pull up to this waffle house and we slowly pull up to the waffle house in a parking spot right in front of the restaurant where you can see everything going on.
04:26:50.000R.I.P. Sheridan Gorman, wrong place at wrong time.
04:26:51.000SMH Chicago and Deep Blue Cities are so fucked up.
04:26:54.000How would you implement mass deportations without so much chaos and backlash like we saw in many W governors like Pritzker fighting Trump and ICE at every step?
04:27:47.000Do Jews deserve fear after they plundered our treasury, profited off our women being in sex work, sent our men to die in wars, and destroyed our country with mass migration all for their own benefit.
04:28:39.000I don't want to deprive them of their rights.
04:28:41.000I want them to be reassured that they will be, you know, in good standing as citizens of the United States.
04:28:49.000That being said, they will not be able in the cases where this is happening to get away with these abuses because Christians are stepping up.
04:29:58.000Hey, I'm not doing a show, but I'll do some 30-minute bonus content if you want, versus I'm interviewing the top government official that resigned as an objector to the war.
04:32:41.000Hey, Nicholas, a Jewish person in Miami asked me if I wrapped a filling today and I said I didn't know what that was because I'm hiding my power level.
04:38:19.000They're also in favor of white genocide.
04:38:22.000They're also in favor of a lot of things that are bad.
04:38:24.000But the reason we're with the Democrats in this midterm election, fucktart, stupid ass, is because then they will get oversight powers and slow down the government.
04:38:34.000I don't know how many times I have to say that.
04:39:54.000The spam issue is so frustrating because it's a direct result of Elon's new monetization policy, which just incentivized content worse content that never existed before.
04:43:37.000Dude, don't you know that the current regime in Iran just took over the country less than 50 years ago and most of the people hate the regime?
04:48:01.000Disheartening to see so-called counter-Semites pushing Tucker Kent at all as anti-Jewry heroes while Tucker keeps having struggle sessions about real anti-Semitism on his show.
04:48:51.000I also recognize that that has largely happened.
04:48:54.000And so to the extent that I'm tolerant of that, it's because it's out of resignation.
04:49:01.000It's not because I think that's the ideal state of affairs or positive, but because it may be irreversible.
04:49:07.000And maybe the only way forward is to find a way to deal with that.
04:49:11.000You know, and I don't think that's a complicated idea.
04:49:14.000I don't think it's complicated to say at once.
04:49:17.000We obviously have a black crime problem, but also I don't hate black people.
04:49:22.000At once, I don't want to be literally submerged under non-white immigration, but also I don't hate these people.
04:49:28.000And I think we could tolerate a level of diversity to say that, you know, our country may already be past the point of no return, but also we want to salvage some sense of white identity in our country, at least locally, for our own people.
04:49:45.000And the same goes for the Jewish thing.
04:49:47.000We can believe that Jewish oligarchs have too much power without saying they killed Charlie Kirk and, you know, they're responsible for everything that happens.
04:49:55.000So you can keep the dime, sent $1,000.
04:51:06.000That's the whole premise is that the top 10 or 1% of the guys are having sex with all the women, and they'll maybe select the top women, and then the rest of the women have to settle down with Chud later.
04:51:33.000And don't get me wrong, there's a right way to be against porn, and I think people should be against porn.
04:51:39.000But there's a lot of women that use porn as a shield.
04:51:44.000And what they really hate is men's sexuality.
04:51:48.000And so I'm very suspicious of women that are on an anti-porn crusade because a lot of the time women like to say, it's okay that I'm a whore because you're using porn.
04:51:59.000And that's a way to justify them being whores.
04:52:26.000But it's also a way that men can have sexual autonomy.
04:52:31.000Because if women are denying men sex, which they do, and it happens inside a marriage, outside a marriage, how can a man take back control of his sexuality?
04:52:42.000And you might think that's pathetic and you might, you know, and you would rightly say that's immoral, but then that is an alternative.
04:52:49.000That's like your, what do they put you on when you try to get off heroin?
04:52:53.000They put you on what, like methadone or something.
04:53:21.000So I'm just going to speak freely here.
04:53:24.000She had this post where she goes, I want to marry a man that is so pure that he doesn't even get aroused by porn because he hates it so much.
04:53:39.000The idea that a man could look at graphic sexual images and not be aroused because of like the implied moral phenomena behind it, like because of the implied moral consequences of what had to happen to create it is so insane.
04:54:34.000A woman could either get a job or find a good husband or she could be a whore, whether she's, you know, a prostitute or a porn star or she's sleeping around with high status males.
04:56:39.000It's like that other girl on TikTok where she said, I'm a 26-year-old virgin, and I want a guy that isn't smelly, isn't gay, but also isn't too lusty.
04:56:52.000So it's like, you want a man that doesn't want to have sex with you, but isn't gay.
04:59:48.000People genuinely saying that if they see people wearing the quadrat are saying death threats and to jump anyone who wears it, bring it on TBH mine comes tomorrow.
05:04:20.000Big special thank you to You Can Keep the Dime, Palest of the Pale, Groyper Mom, LM Sunshine, Line Dancing Nick, Veltrix, Lane Groyper, R Pat, Lofty, Mythical Creature, Groyper.