00:06:30.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
00:06:34.000We're being slowly poisoned and in some cases quickly murdered and assassinated.
00:06:41.000And we're killing ourselves every day.
00:06:43.000Inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
00:06:48.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
00:06:56.000People have got to start to get courageous.
00:06:59.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
00:07:13.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
00:07:17.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
00:07:20.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
00:07:27.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
00:07:31.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
00:09:38.000that america was different because we are different palantir is an ai data analytics company
00:10:02.000They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
00:10:09.000If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
00:10:26.000Palantir comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
00:16:57.000And all my brothers locked up on the yard.
00:17:00.000You can still be anything you wanna be.
00:17:04.000Went from one and four to one and three.
00:17:06.000Thirteen period and it just a week between me and your commander and a chief.
00:17:13.000Definitely I fear and never when you remove the fear and love you create fear above everything else You're talking to somebody right now that only fears God has won the victory, bro.
00:24:00.000My love has got no money, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:04.000My love has got no power, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:07.000My love has got no fame, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:11.000My love has got no money, he's got his strong beliefs.
00:24:15.000Want more and more people just want more and more freedom and blood.
00:24:22.000What he's looking for, want more and more.
00:24:25.000People just want more and more freedom and love.
00:24:29.000What he's looking for, freed from desire.
00:24:33.000Mind and senses purify, freed from desire.
00:24:37.000Mine and senses purified, freed from desire.
00:24:53.000If we don't have freedom on the Internet in the age of AI, we are going to be mind raped every day forever.
00:25:01.000Think about anything you've ever said or done in the vicinity of your phone's camera or microphone, everything you've ever put into your phone, and even things that are not necessarily so scandalous, but even things like your favorite restaurants, your geolocation, because your phone also has a GPS.
00:25:23.000They have access to your bank account.
00:25:25.000AI will literally know everything about you.
00:25:29.000Everyone you know, your relationship to them, your tastes, your preferences, your habits, your whereabouts, your routines, your schedule, when you sleep.
00:25:39.000They know how much REM sleep you're getting.
00:25:43.000They know how many calories you consume.
00:25:45.000Think about the ways that they can manipulate you.
00:25:48.000You have a computer in your refrigerator, computer in your car, computer in your home security system, computer in your everything, computer in your clothes, your watch, your glasses, your VR headset, your alarm clock.
00:26:00.000You have a smart home, economy of things.
00:26:02.000It's like total, like, rape of everybody by the system forever.
00:26:18.000My life is like a first-person video game, you know?
00:27:18.000These material appetites will never be satisfied.
00:27:23.000And even if they are, it'll never be an adequate substitute for communion with our Holy Father, with somebody, with the author of the world.
00:27:32.000And every mother and father understands the love for a child.
00:36:16.000I want that shot of my soul onto a job that I have.
00:36:27.000My voice says nothing when I scream it out for help.
00:36:33.000I stretch my hand on my car just because I was caught When I get home,
00:36:58.000I want you Hello, I got places to be Good evening, everybody you're watching America First,
00:37:13.000my name is Nicholas Jake Quentis, we have a great show for you tonight, that's a like a bump You got that bump,
00:37:51.000a lion good to heal They have total control That a lion could, from his courage, be pride over every single thing, That the lion himself would learn to kneel.
00:38:06.000They pull the string that the lion would not care, even if his lion died.
00:38:13.000Things have to change that the lion himself would accept such a deal And they have to change right now.
00:38:24.000In the end It was only to themselves they had lied.
00:39:27.000Poop diddy whoop scoop poop poop scoop diddy whoop whoop diddy scoop whoop diddy scoop My love has got no money.
00:50:55.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
00:51:00.000We're being slowly poisoned and in some cases quickly murdered and assassinated.
00:51:06.000And we're killing ourselves every day.
00:51:09.000Inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
00:51:14.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
00:51:21.000People have got to start to get courageous.
00:51:25.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
00:51:39.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
00:51:43.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
00:51:46.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
00:51:53.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
00:51:57.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
00:52:46.000Charlie Kirk, because they voted for Kamala Harris.
00:52:51.000People do not stab young girls on trains because they're born black.
00:52:57.000People do not shoot Palestinians in the back of the head or cheer it on just because they're Jewish.
00:53:50.000And I think that the mature people that actually love America, actually love our children, and the people that recognize the division, the peril that we're in, we need to fortify a new consensus and rally the people of conscience, the people of decency, the people of humanity, the people of charity towards their fellow man,
00:54:16.000against those that want to kill us, against those that laugh and celebrate when innocent people are harmed.
00:54:26.000For any reason, for any ideological reason.
00:54:29.000Against the people that are cruel, the people that are hateful.
00:54:32.000And by that, I mean the people that are really cruel.
00:54:35.000Not the people that say things you disagree with, not the people that are provocative, not the people that are sometimes angry, but the people that are really cruel and really evil.
00:54:54.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
00:55:17.000So much of it, it cannot be contained.
00:55:23.000An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children, even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
00:56:50.000is an Israeli-funded blacklist which, since july 2025, has been confirmed to be used by the Trump administration to target students, professors and professionals who oppose Israel and reside in the United States.
00:57:02.000This idea is part of an initiative created by the Heritage Foundation, the same group responsible for the infamous Project 2025.
00:57:09.000In their initiative, titled Project Esther, they state that students participating in pro-Palestinian protests and activism are supporting Hamas, a group that the United States designates as a foreign terrorist organization.
00:57:21.000Therefore, pro-Palestinian students are considered to be supporting terrorism and are subject to the revocation of visas, frozen bank accounts, asset seizures, and the denial of basic constitutional rights.
00:57:33.000In effect, the Canary mission serves as a means to circumvent constitutional protections, allowing the federal government to engage in intelligence gathering activities that would otherwise be considered unlawful.
00:57:45.000Palantir, another company closely aligned with the state of Israel, uses AI-driven analytics to maintain private databases on U.S. citizens and currently works with four federal agencies.
00:57:55.000While government contracting with the private sector is long-standing, the prominent influence of Jewish groups within these increasingly powerful organizations warrants careful examination.
00:58:09.000I renew the call for all able-bodied young American men, all of our elite human capital, all of our geniuses, warriors, intelligent people to dedicate themselves to American sovereignty and independence.
00:58:21.000As Christians, as Americans, as white people, as citizens of the United States.
00:58:26.000And anybody that settles for anything less is just as much of an enemy.
00:58:31.000I would actually consider them worse than our oppressors.
00:58:35.000So on Independence Day, it's important to reflect on the fact that we are an occupied nation.
00:58:39.000Now, just like then, we're being ruled by a small country across an ocean, serving itself at our expense.
00:58:46.000And as long as that is the case, I will always be obsessed with that.
00:58:49.000As long as that is the case, I will always be speaking out against that and fighting against that.
00:58:53.000And I will always be anchored, understanding that that is the fundamental struggle.
00:58:57.000As long as our presidents have to kiss the wall in Israel and wear a small hat, as long as they have to say that we want to make Israel great again and they're the greatest country ever, I will never be okay with that.
00:59:54.000This is not a timeline going back to 1948.
00:59:58.000What had just happened before the 2016 election?
01:00:01.000Barack Obama created the joint comprehensive plan of action, the JCPOA, or the Iranian nuclear deal.
01:00:10.000And Barack Obama brought together China, Russia, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States and the European Union to enforce a nuclear deal that restricts Iran's enrichment of uranium.
01:00:24.000The early talks were conducted in secret, and the Israelis were furious, furious about this.
01:00:32.000Netanyahu went to a joint session of Congress and gave a speech in defiance of the American president and its nuclear deal, and Congress gave 37 standing ovations.
01:00:43.000This is the background of Trump's first election.
01:02:06.000They colluded with Trump to get him elected so that Trump would do maximum pressure and create a ladder of escalation, pulling us out of the deal, declaring the IRGC terrorists, then killing its leader, putting sanctions on the regime.
01:02:20.000This is a war that started a long time ago, that Trump made hot in 2018 and has been going on for seven years.
01:02:33.000Just like in Iraq, which went from 1990 until today, just like Libya, which went from 2011 to today, Syria, which went from 2011 to today, and Iran, which went from 2018 until today.
01:14:47.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
01:14:52.000We're being slowly poisoned and, in some cases, quickly murdered and assassinated.
01:14:58.000And we're killing ourselves every day.
01:15:01.000Inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
01:15:06.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
01:15:13.000People have got to start to get courageous.
01:15:16.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
01:15:30.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
01:15:34.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
01:15:38.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
01:15:44.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
01:15:48.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
01:17:55.000That America was different because we are different.
01:18:14.000Palantir is an AI data analytics company.
01:18:19.000They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
01:18:26.000If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
01:18:44.000Palantir comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
01:33:10.000If we don't have freedom on the Internet in the age of AI, we are going to be mind raped every day forever.
01:33:18.000Think about anything you've ever said or done in the vicinity of your phone's camera or microphone, everything you've ever put into your phone, and even things that are not necessarily so scandalous, but even things like your favorite restaurants, your geolocation, because your phone also has a GPS.
01:33:40.000They have access to your bank account.
01:33:42.000AI will literally know everything about you.
01:33:46.000Everyone you know, your relationship to them, your tastes, your preferences, your habits, your whereabouts, your routines, your schedule, when you sleep.
01:33:56.000They know how much REM sleep you're getting.
01:34:00.000They know how many calories you consume.
01:34:02.000Think about the ways that they can manipulate you.
01:34:05.000You have a computer in your refrigerator, computer in your car, computer in your home security system, computer in your everything, computer in your clothes, your watch, your glasses, your VR headset, your alarm clock.
01:34:17.000You have a smart home, economy of things.
01:34:19.000It's like total, like, rape of everybody by the system forever.
01:34:36.000My life is like a first-person video game, you know?
01:35:35.000These material appetites, they will never be satisfied.
01:35:40.000And even if they are, it'll never be an adequate substitute for communion with our Holy Father, with somebody, with the author of the world.
01:35:49.000And every mother and father understands the love for a child.
01:50:11.000You got that back, that's what I can't.
01:50:18.000Listen to the cure, I listen to the cure, listen to the cure, and then I cry.
01:50:31.000All the things you got, all the things you said, running through my head, running through my head, running through my head.
01:50:36.000All the things you said, all the things I said, running in my head, running through my head, all the things you said, all the things I've been on.
01:50:47.000All the things you said, When can we expect a real victory?
01:59:13.000This country is being ripped apart and raped and looted.
01:59:17.000We're being slowly poisoned and in some cases quickly murdered and assassinated.
01:59:24.000And we're killing ourselves every day.
01:59:26.000Inadvertently, with the kinds of things that we eat and breathe and drink and see.
01:59:31.000People have got to start to radically begin to obey their conscience and tell the truth and do the right thing.
01:59:39.000People have got to start to get courageous.
01:59:42.000And this is the time for everybody to turn and look to God and to pray and to ask for strength and to ask for wisdom to get through this time and to transform and sanctify this country.
01:59:56.000And the alternative is that there will be no country.
02:00:00.000Is it really only as big as low gas prices?
02:00:03.000Is it really only so big as bringing inflation and gas prices and the corporate tax rate back down?
02:00:10.000It's not about waiting for someone to come in and change the policy and make it better.
02:00:14.000It's a personal decision that we all have to make to become soldiers of Christ.
02:01:03.000Charlie Kirk, because they voted for Kamala Harris.
02:01:08.000People do not stab young girls on trains because they're born black.
02:01:15.000People do not shoot Palestinians in the back of the head or cheer it on just because they're Jewish.
02:02:08.000And I think that the mature people that actually love America, actually love our children, the people that recognize the division, the peril that we're in, we need to fortify a new consensus and rally the people of conscience, the people of decency, the people of humanity, the people of charity towards their fellow man,
02:02:33.000against those that want to kill us, against those that laugh and celebrate when innocent people are harmed.
02:02:43.000For any reason, for any ideological reason.
02:02:46.000Against the people that are cruel, the people that are hateful.
02:02:50.000And by that, I mean the people that are really cruel.
02:02:52.000Not the people that say things you disagree with, not the people that are provocative, not the people that are sometimes angry, but the people that are really cruel and really evil.
02:03:12.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
02:03:34.000So much of it, it cannot be contained.
02:03:40.000An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children, even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
02:05:08.000is an Israeli Funded blacklist which, since july 2025, has been confirmed to be used by the Trump administration to target students, professors and professionals who oppose Israel and reside in the United States.
02:05:19.000This idea is part of an initiative created by the Heritage Foundation, the same group responsible for the infamous Project 2025.
02:05:27.000In their initiative, titled Project Esther, they state that students participating in pro-Palestinian protests and activism are supporting Hamas, a group that the United States designates as a foreign terrorist organization.
02:05:38.000Therefore, pro-Palestinian students are considered to be supporting terrorism and are subject to the revocation of visas, frozen bank accounts, asset seizures, and the denial of basic constitutional rights.
02:05:50.000In effect, the Canary mission serves as a means to circumvent constitutional protections, allowing the federal government to engage in intelligence gathering activities that would otherwise be considered unlawful.
02:06:03.000Palantir, another company closely aligned with the state of Israel, uses AI-driven analytics to maintain private databases on U.S. citizens and currently works with four federal agencies.
02:06:13.000While government contracting with the private sector is long-standing, the prominent influence of Jewish groups within these increasingly powerful organizations warrants careful examination.
02:06:26.000I renew the call for all able-bodied young American men, all of our elite human capital, all of our geniuses, warriors, intelligent people to dedicate themselves to American sovereignty and independence as Christians, as Americans, as white people, as citizens of the United States.
02:06:43.000And anybody that settles for anything less is just as much of an enemy.
02:06:48.000I would actually consider them worse than our oppressors.
02:06:52.000So on Independence Day, it's important to reflect on the fact that we are an occupied nation.
02:06:56.000Now, just like then, we're being ruled by a small country across an ocean, serving itself at our expense.
02:07:03.000And as long as that is the case, I will always be obsessed with that.
02:07:06.000As long as that is the case, I will always be speaking out against that and fighting against that.
02:07:10.000And I will always be anchored, understanding that that is the fundamental struggle.
02:07:14.000As long as our presidents have to kiss the wall in Israel and wear a small hat, as long as they have to say that we want to make Israel great again and they're the greatest country ever, I will never be okay with that.
02:08:12.000This is not a timeline going back to 1948.
02:08:15.000What had just happened before the 2016 election?
02:08:18.000Barack Obama created the joint comprehensive plan of action, the JCPOA, or the Iranian nuclear deal.
02:08:27.000And Barack Obama brought together China, Russia, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States and the European Union to enforce a nuclear deal that restricts Iran's enrichment of uranium.
02:08:42.000The early talks were conducted in secret, and the Israelis were furious, furious about this.
02:08:50.000Netanyahu went to a joint session of Congress and gave a speech in defiance of the American president and its nuclear deal, and Congress gave 37 standing ovations.
02:09:00.000This is the background of Trump's first election.
02:10:23.000They colluded with Trump to get him elected so that Trump would do maximum pressure and create a ladder of escalation, pulling us out of the deal, declaring the IRGC terrorists, then killing its leader, putting sanctions on the regime.
02:10:38.000This is a war that started a long time ago, that Trump made hot in 2018 and has been going on for seven years.
02:10:50.000Just like in Iraq, which went from 1990 until today, just like Libya, which went from 2011 to today, Syria, which went from 2011 to today, and Iran, which went from 2018 until today.
02:19:27.000According to a new interview from the Financial Times, Trump said he's considering seizing the oil, which we've discussed many times over the past week and a half, two weeks.
02:19:39.000Plan B, option number two, and again, this is also just in the past 24 hours.
02:19:46.000Earlier tonight, it was reported by the Wall Street Journal that Trump may end the war without even reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
02:19:57.000So that's option, that's plan B. Option number two is we're just done.
02:20:03.000We're just going to finish the war and we won't even open up the strait.
02:20:08.000We're just giving it to Iran permanently or unless or until we intervene again to open up the strait.
02:20:17.000Although it's hard to see how we would do that.
02:20:21.000So as always, just like every other week in the conflict so far, we really have no clue based on purely what is being said by the administration, by Trump himself, where this is going.
02:20:53.000The operative word there is if you're going purely off of what is being said.
02:20:59.000But if you're following what is being done and you consider why these things are being said, I think it's pretty clear the direction we're heading in.
02:21:12.000And so we'll analyze this a little bit.
02:21:15.000I'll just tell you right out of the gate, I think it's a fake out.
02:21:18.000When Trump says he's going to leave without opening the Strait of Hormuz, what is the intended reaction to that announcement?
02:21:59.000And it will affect us lastly and probably the least acutely out of all these countries.
02:22:05.000We don't rely on oil from the Persian Gulf like the Asian countries do.
02:22:11.000We don't rely on LNG like Europe does.
02:22:15.000We have enough energy that we are safe.
02:22:18.000So if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or if Iran imposes a toll on that, then that becomes a problem for every other country far before and more than it does for us.
02:22:37.000Based on the deployments that are happening in the Middle East and based on what Trump has been telegraphing for the past two or three weeks, I think we are still on for ground operations in the Persian Gulf, either at Karg Island, at Hormuz Island, or one of the other islands, maybe one of the contested islands claimed by the United Arab Emirates, or possibly up to and including coastal areas on the mainland in Iran near the strait.
02:23:09.000That's going to be our big development on Iran.
02:23:12.000If we have time, okay, get a load of this.
02:23:16.000If we have time, we'll cover this as well.
02:23:19.000The other big news from today is that Trump has unpaused the processing of asylum requests.
02:23:29.000So you might remember that at the end of last year in December, Trump went to U.S. Customs and Immigration and told them to stop processing all asylum claims by asylum seekers.
02:23:42.000And that effectively shut down the refugee process and the asylum process.
02:23:48.000There's now 4 million applications backlogged because effectively none of them were getting through.
02:28:38.000Because if you notice that there's like this, it really is like a cult.
02:28:43.000Nobody is allowed to say that it's not going the way they want it to go among the plan trusters, even though they all recognize it's a disaster.
02:28:51.000So they're starting to sort of cautiously venture out.
02:28:56.000And they always have those qualifiers.
02:32:39.000In this economy, you know, it's sort of like the dollar menu, $15, kind of more for a subscription, but Netflix is like 30 bucks now, I think.
02:33:18.000Now, if you follow me on Twitter, you already saw my tweet about this, but it made me think a lot because I feel like I cover a lot of things on the show and we pick up on a lot of different threads here and there.
02:33:32.000But this is something that's really extremely important to follow up on.
02:33:37.000So this weekend, I saw a tweet from Matt Walsh of the Daily Wire.
02:33:42.000And as you know, Matt Walsh works for Ben Shapiro.
02:34:29.000It's causing economic damage and it's not in our interest and so on and so forth.
02:34:34.000And a lot of people are congratulating him for this discovery, for this take.
02:34:40.000But you want to know something about that and Matt Walsh?
02:34:45.000I want you to take a little trip down memory lane because unlike a lot of other people, if you watch my show, you know this about me and maybe you're the same way.
02:35:02.000We remember what people said and what people did last week and last month and last year and two years ago.
02:35:12.000And I'm old enough to remember, and I have enough of a recall to remember that Matt Walsh went on Tucker Carlson's show last year.
02:35:22.000And do you know what he said about the Middle East?
02:35:25.000His take on the Middle East a year ago is that if you are extremely pro-Israel and if you are extremely anti-Israel, that both sides of that conversation are not putting America first.
02:35:42.000He said the real America first position is to be indifferent to the developments in the Middle East, indifferent to Palestine, indifferent to Iran, indifferent to Lebanon and Yemen.
02:35:55.000He said the real America first position is to fixate on what happens in America and school board meetings and the economy and Disney Plus and transgender athletes competing in girls sports and all that.
02:36:10.000He said he really did the both sides thing.
02:36:13.000If you're obsessed with the Middle East as anti-Israel or pro-Israel, those are two sides of the same coin and they're both wrong.
02:36:57.000And there were some people that have been putting up the flare about this for a long time and warning people, pay attention to the Middle East.
02:37:08.000And what's more, pay attention to what is happening domestically because there is a dual track here.
02:37:17.000At once, you have very troubling developments in the Middle East.
02:37:21.000Clearly, Israel has undertaken since October 7th, this ambitious expansionist project to steamroll Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the other Shiite militias, and then to decapitate Iran.
02:37:37.000That is obvious to anyone who is paying attention that that is the plan, was the plan, has always been the plan.
02:37:47.000And the other part of it is that simultaneously in America, the Jews have been ascending in politics on the Republican side in particular, taking critical national security roles, infiltrating the MAGA movement, Mar-a-Lago, the Republican Party, because they believe that the Trump administration, that a Trump presidency will facilitate all of this.
02:38:15.000They will deliver Israel's agenda using the U.S. military.
02:38:20.000And like I said, for years, people have been pointing this out, like myself, like yours truly, and many other people.
02:38:29.000And all along the way, every step of the way, every step on this pathway towards the war in Iran, we've had people like Matt Walsh telling us, you are obsessed with the Middle East.
02:41:30.000They've orchestrated all of this, which has led to all of these outcomes.
02:41:35.000The fiscal cost of the war, the Americans dead in the war, the catastrophic ramifications for the global economy and our allies and credibility and deterrence in the world.
02:41:47.000The explosion of the MAGA movement, the division in our camp.
02:42:13.000If the Iran war is destroying the MAGA movement, if the Iran war is blowing up the dissident right nationalist movement, if it's forcing America to fight another regime change war in Iran, then there is no way to get to America first without confronting Israel.
02:45:22.000But at the end of the day, they see someone that is promoting America first, claiming America first, born in America, loving America only against the Israel lobby.
02:45:34.000And if that were the dialectic, it would be pretty clear which side 90% of conservatives would take.
02:45:42.000If that was the dialectic, if that was the argument, Shapiro, foam finger, flag waving, yarmulke wearing, Israel firster versus America first, you know, 99% of Americans take my side every day of the week.
02:46:00.000But then you introduce somebody like Matt Walsh.
02:46:04.000And somebody like Matt Walsh is going to beat his chest every day about how he's proud to be white.
02:46:11.000And he's going to air his grievances about brown and black people and immigrants and wokeness and transgenders in the media and in sports and so on.
02:46:22.000And he's going to take a position on Israel that's not actually all that definitive.
02:46:28.000Well, I just don't really care that much.
02:46:30.000Well, I'm just unlike Nick Fuentes and Ben Shapiro, I'm not obsessed with it.
02:47:28.000I have been trying to warn you every single day, saying, Look at how all of this is progressing.
02:47:35.000Look at the developments in the Middle East that are leading to this.
02:47:38.000It's not just, why do I care about Palestine?
02:47:42.000Because Israel is using that as a pretext.
02:47:46.000It is also the long-term goal as well.
02:47:49.000They're using that to roll October 7th into a justification for a war in Lebanon and a war in Iran, which has now become a regional conflict.
02:48:45.000A few weeks ago, we've been headed here for years.
02:48:51.000And by the way, if the end result of Matt Walsh and the conservative movement is to get you to look away for just long enough, just long enough for them to achieve what they want, that's all they need.
02:49:48.000After we killed the Ayatollah, after we bombed them 13,000 times, after they seized the Strait of Hormuz and crashed the global economy, now you realize what happened?
02:53:28.000Okay, we have a thunderstorm going on here.
02:53:30.000So there was like a power surge for a second.
02:53:34.000That's why, don't worry, we didn't get zogged.
02:53:36.000Everybody was saying, people were saying it was a Mossad attack.
02:53:39.000no no it's just weather inclement weather over here we're good anyway well it's going to be hard for me to pick back up where I left off I was kind of I was kind of dialed in there.
02:53:55.000So anyway, so that is what is happening with Matt Walsh.
02:53:58.000I guess where I left off is I was saying the only way forward is that people that know what is going on have to decisively confront Israel first.
02:54:10.000And thank God that Tucker is doing that.
02:54:13.000And Megan Kelly and Piers Morgan and others.
02:54:16.000I wish Candace Owens would focus more on that as opposed to, you know, like the other stuff.
02:54:21.000The lizard people, that whole thing, the time travel, astral projecting and so on.
02:55:19.000And as long as these people have any influence, they are going to use our country for their own ends.
02:55:27.000That is what is going on in American politics.
02:55:30.000Radical left-wing Jews want to turn America into a diverse brown shithole because that is what promotes their agenda.
02:55:40.000A rising tide of tolerance and equality lifts all of the boats for every ethnic and racial minority, even the smallest one, which is the Jews.
02:55:51.000And the conservative, right-wing Zionist Jews, for them, it is Jewish nationalism.
02:57:52.000This is your opportunity to get off at this stop and join America first.
02:57:58.000If you want to salvage what we have, if you want to salvage our country, if you want to salvage an American nationalist movement from the wreckage of MAGA, now is the time to say unequivocally, you're either America first or Israel first.
02:58:13.000We knew this when the Tucker cost happened.
02:58:41.000The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
02:58:45.000So if in the end your effect was to get everybody to look the other way, we just have to hold our nose and vote for Trump because immigration is the most important thing.
03:02:55.000People say immigration, immigrant, as if it will change a thing.
03:03:00.00035 years of unrelenting, always increasing mass migration, and they think four years, a 10% reduction in legal immigration is going to is going to change anything, that it's even going to make a difference, that it would even be noticeable?
03:03:17.000They say, well, any little bit counts.
03:03:20.000Well, maybe in a vacuum, but not if the price we have to pay is a war in Iran, an AI regulation moratorium, the Epstein files being covered up and destroying the Trump anti-immigration movement.
03:03:35.000You know, that's not worth the price of admission.
03:05:30.000I thought he was one of the good ones.
03:05:31.000These people that, you know, anyway, we're going to move on.
03:05:36.000We're going to get into the war, but that's just a word on where the movement is.
03:05:39.000Because like I said, if this is, if all of that has brought us here, of what use was the movement?
03:05:49.000If the movement, if the movement has brought us to this point, of what use was the movement?
03:05:55.000As far as immigration is concerned, we have nothing.
03:05:58.000As far as Israel is concerned, they have everything.
03:06:02.000So of what use was your movement that people are trying to say, yeah, but we're just, you know, Trump really wants to do it and we just want it to happen.
03:06:13.000Well, all of that and a dollar will no longer be able to buy you a cup of coffee because coffee is now $10 a cup.
03:06:27.000We're going to get into our big story tonight.
03:06:30.000We're going to cover our updates here on the war in Iran.
03:06:33.000We're at day 31, fifth week of the war.
03:06:37.000No major developments this weekend, it seems, at least nothing that changes the nature of the conflict, which we all understand now at this point.
03:06:47.000Now, a lot of people were anticipating that there would be a major ground operation this past weekend.
03:06:53.000But if you recall, I said last week, more likely it's going to happen next weekend, if it is going to happen at all.
03:07:05.000Well, it has everything to do with the timing of these troop deployments.
03:07:10.000We at the show, and by we, I mean me, we believe that a ground operation will commence once the force posture has been reinforced by the 82nd Airborne, by the Marine Expeditionary Unit, and by a third aircraft carrier.
03:07:30.000It will technically be only number two that is actually in the region, but it will be the third one that's been deployed so far.
03:07:38.000And we believe that once all of these forces are present and once the operational planning has been finished and once the markets close this coming Friday and Trump's deadline runs out just before April 6th, that is probably the most likely time for a ground operation.
03:08:01.000Our big developments on the conflict, first and foremost, like I said, it is what has not happened.
03:08:07.000A ground operation has not happened and things were relatively quiet.
03:08:12.000Like I said, it means the conflict is still relatively the same.
03:08:16.000The dynamics of the conflict, the current state of things is the same as it was on Friday, as the same as it was the week before.
03:08:25.000And I'll refresh your memory quickly on where things are, and then we'll talk about where things are going.
03:08:31.000As you know, we've entered the fifth week, so we are now a little bit more than one full month into the conflict.
03:08:39.000Initially, they said it would be four days.
03:08:42.000And Trump, probably persuaded by Israel, was convinced that a decisive all-out attack on Iran would bring down the regime and there would be a quick end to the conflict.
03:08:53.000The regime change would effectively end everything.
03:08:57.000And then the United States could accomplish whatever it needed to.
03:09:01.000If that was a nuclear deal, cutting off funding for proxies, disabling or destroying missiles, that would happen in the aftermath of the regime collapse.
03:09:33.000And Iran maintains the capability to bombard the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the Gulf countries, our allies, Israel and U.S. bases with drones and ballistic missiles.
03:09:47.000And so now the pressure is going in the other direction.
03:10:25.000And in the meantime, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing oil prices to spike, which is causing inflation across the entire world.
03:10:34.000And the longer this goes on, the more it threatens to create a global economic crisis.
03:10:44.000It's not just the increase in the price of fuel, but it's also the increase in the price of food and potentially a semiconductor shortage because of the lack of helium and other commodities.
03:10:56.000If this goes on for another month, two more months, you're talking about $200 per barrel of oil.
03:11:03.000You're talking about an economic recession, which will have a contagion-like effect.
03:11:12.000Other shortages will cause price increases.
03:11:15.000And this will be a systemic economic crisis for Europe, for the United States, for Asia.
03:11:22.000And it's not clear that this can even be averted at this point.
03:11:25.000Even if everything returns to normal tomorrow, which is not going to, it's not clear that this can even be avoided anymore.
03:11:34.000Everybody with knowledge about this situation in government, for example, like in the Italian government, South Korean or Japanese government, and major leaders in the oil and gas industry, they all say it's far worse than anybody even realizes.
03:11:49.000The economic pain is already baked in and cannot be averted.
03:11:53.000It's just a question now of how bad it's going to be, depending upon how long it goes on.
03:12:31.000If we do, we will have to accept Iran's terms for ending the conflict.
03:12:37.000Because at this point, we are at their mercy.
03:12:39.000Whether they choose to stop bombing the strait, whether they choose to stop bombing the Gulf is really their decision.
03:12:47.000And so although one way that we can alleviate the economic pressure, one way that we can exit the conflict is to simply sue for peace and seek a truce, we have to do it on their terms.
03:13:00.000Not only can we not impose the terms, but we will actually have to give up some pretty significant concessions to Iran.
03:13:07.000And this, by itself, would constitute a strategic defeat for the U.S.
03:13:14.000And that by itself would also be striking because you consider that we threw everything in our arsenal at this country.
03:13:23.000Tomahawk missiles and F-35s and 13,000 airstrikes and decapitation strikes.
03:13:32.000Everything that we have in our arsenal, aircraft carriers and our own drones that we copied from Iran and attack helicopters, everything that we had.
03:13:43.000And not only did we not win, but we effectively lost.
03:13:48.000Iran is arguably in a stronger position than they were before.
03:13:53.000They will have expanded their control over the Strait of Hormuz.
03:13:57.000The regime will come out fortified rather than weakened.
03:14:02.000That also carries a pretty significant consequence against the United States because it hurts our credibility and it hurts deterrence, which is what we use to effectively control the entire world.
03:14:15.000So there's this cascading sequence of consequences for ending the peace on their terms.
03:14:23.000One, if we leave, we got to give a lot of stuff up.
03:14:29.000If we lose, that means nobody takes us seriously.
03:14:33.000So for us to end the conflict on Iran's terms, to de-escalate and end the conflict, this is an unacceptable humiliation for the United States.
03:14:44.000And it's not like some people think that it's just about being the bigger man, that it's just about calling the quits, it's about cutting your losses.
03:14:54.000You have to understand this is a catastrophic defeat which tangibly hurts the United States.
03:15:00.000So we are effectively caught in a bear trap.
03:15:09.000And now what Iran is doing is they are trying to impose the maximum cost on not only the United States, but everybody else in the region and also in the entire world.
03:15:22.000And the reason they are doing this is so that they can reestablish deterrence.
03:15:28.000Iran wants this to go on for a pretty long time, not forever and not indefinitely, but Iran wants this to hurt.
03:15:36.000And for it to hurt, it needs to go on for longer than we're comfortable with.
03:15:41.000And they need to make it hurt badly, badly for the regional players that assisted the United States, badly for the United States, which has done the bulk of the fighting, and also badly for all the other regions of the world that will be affected by the price increases.
03:15:58.000And the reason they're doing that naturally is so that the United States, Israel, and every other country will avoid ever attacking Iran again.
03:16:45.000Well, so far, our attacks and our weapons are not able to achieve the objectives that we set out to accomplish in the war.
03:16:55.000And so we have effectively had to admit defeat that we are not going to topple Iran's regime, that we're not going to be able to destroy all of their missile launch platforms.
03:17:05.000We may not even be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
03:17:09.000So what the administration is doing is they're finessing our stated objectives, and they're looking for a cheap and easy win, or maybe a risky win, maybe a gamble, but they're looking for a smaller win.
03:17:23.000They're looking for a win on the battlefield.
03:17:26.000And they're looking to increase their leverage ever so slightly, not so that we could claim total victory, not so that we can run the table and get everything we set out to get, but so that we don't have to accept such a humiliating defeat so obviously on Iran's terms.
03:17:45.000So Trump is looking for something he can do to up the ante so that one, we could say, well, we won this battle.
03:17:52.000Now we're ending the conflict on our terms.
03:17:55.000And that has a purely rhetorical significance.
03:17:58.000But also, from a tactical point of view, trying to gain a little bit of leverage over Iran so that in reality, in a tangible way, we actually don't have to accept all of Iran's terms.
03:18:11.000And clearly, Iran is going to win on a lot of them.
03:18:33.000Well, it's very clear that he is looking to escalate the conflict into an energy war.
03:18:39.000And Trump is looking to attack civilian infrastructure in Iran, which will damage their economy.
03:18:45.000Either he is going to destroy the infrastructure or he is going to seize control over it with an invasion or to seize control of Iranian territory.
03:18:55.000And this will force Iran's hand either by making them negotiate for control over their energy or by depriving them of control of the Strait of Hormuz.
03:19:07.000And doing one or both of those things will allow the United States to say, we got a victory on the battlefield and now we're done.
03:19:16.000And also prevent Iran from wielding all the cards and dictating the terms to the technologically superior United States.
03:19:26.000And we've been talking about this for a few weeks.
03:19:28.000It is my belief that if you've been following these developments over the past two and a half weeks, that Trump is building towards a ground operation either to retake the Strait of Hormuz by seizing islands near it or Iran's coastline there, and or Trump is going to invade Karg Island, which is the linchpin, the critical node in Iran's energy sector.
03:19:54.000And by seizing Karg Island, he can choke off Iran's exports, from which they get 50% of their revenue from their energy exports.
03:20:04.000And he can then negotiate for the strait or sue for peace and get other concessions.
03:20:10.000And that seems to be the plan based on the fact that there is a major reinforcement happening in the Middle East with Marines, paratroopers, and another aircraft carrier.
03:20:22.000And also based on the fact that he seems to be buying time simultaneously, promoting a completely fake peace process and mixing up the signals, telegraphing, all sorts of contradictory things.
03:20:37.000While there is a major reinforcement going on, he's also talking up these peace talks, this diplomatic process that just simply isn't happening.
03:20:47.000Saying that there will be meetings in Pakistan or in Turkey, that intermediaries are in touch with Iran, that Iran has agreed to all of our terms.
03:20:55.000And in reality, none of this seems to seriously be happening.
03:20:59.000Now, the big developments from this weekend about the war are that once again, we're getting two completely different messages.
03:21:06.000So you might recall that the big arc last week in the story is that Trump has created a new ultimatum for Iran.
03:21:15.000Not last weekend, but the weekend before that, Trump said that Iran had 48 hours to open up the strait, or else he would attack their power grid.
03:21:25.000He would attack their power plants, their electrical grid, not necessarily their oil infrastructure, but their electric infrastructure.
03:21:33.000And naturally, Iran replied and said, well, if Trump escalates it into an energy war, then Iran will respond in kind against Saudi Arabia, against the Emirates, and Kuwait as well.
03:21:47.000Trump on Monday last week pushed that deadline back.
03:21:52.000Then on Thursday, he pushed the deadline back 10 days.
03:21:57.000And so where it sits as of last week is that Iran is currently on a countdown until April 6th, which is next Monday, to open up the strait, or else Trump has promised to bomb all of their energy.
03:22:11.000And yet again, there's a question, is Trump actually serious about this deadline or any deadline?
03:22:18.000Because the 48-hour deadline got extended.
03:22:24.000Now we're currently in a 10-day deadline.
03:22:28.000And we all know that if Trump were to bomb Iran's infrastructure, this would be totally unacceptable.
03:22:36.000By itself, it would also be unacceptable because of Iran's inevitable retaliation.
03:22:43.000Right now, currently, we are actually letting Iran sell their oil.
03:22:49.000There is oil that has gone out to sea already that is on its way to its final destination, and the United States is no longer sanctioning that.
03:22:59.000So, all the oil that left the Strait of Hormuz from Iran prior to the war, we're going to let them sell it.
03:23:07.000Because we want the maximum supply of oil in the market right now to stabilize prices.
03:23:14.000Currently, Iran is still sending oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
03:23:20.000If our allies send their oil through the Strait, Iran will bomb it.
03:23:25.000Well, we have the same capability, technically speaking, but we are letting Iran continue to export oil, even though they deny our allies from doing the same for the same reason.
03:23:38.000It's the same reason we stopped sanctioning the oil that's at sea.
03:23:42.000We're continuing to allow them to export oil because we need all the oil in the economy that we can get.
03:23:49.000So, we can't bomb Iran's oil infrastructure.
03:23:53.000We can't bomb their grid for that reason alone.
03:23:58.000But even more, if we do that, Iran will bomb Saudi Arabia, they will bomb the Emirates, they will bomb Qatar, potentially, they'll bomb Kuwait and Bahrain.
03:24:08.000And if they do that, then this worsens that effect even more.
03:24:12.000Like I said, so you already have $116 a barrel for oil.
03:25:06.000Well, yesterday, Trump basically re-upped and renewed the threat.
03:25:11.000So if there was a question about whether the deadline was still in effect, if that was still going to come due at some point, Trump reminded us that we are still underneath this ultimatum.
03:25:27.000It says, quote, President Trump said if Iran does not reach a deal with the United States and open up the Strait of Hormuz, the country would conclude military involvement in the region by, quote, blowing up and obliterating electric plants and oil wells in Iran.
03:25:44.000Trump said, quote, the United States of America is in serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operation in Iran.
03:25:56.000But if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately open for business, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, Carg Island, and possibly all desalinization plants, which we have purposefully yet not touched.
03:26:35.000So we're still under the ultimatum as it stands this week.
03:26:41.000But then, earlier tonight, we get a new report from the Wall Street Journal, which says that actually Trump is considering ending the war without even opening up the Strait of Hormuz at all.
03:26:55.000It says, quote, President Trump told aides that he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
03:27:05.000In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the choke point would push conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.
03:27:14.000He decided the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran's navy and missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade.
03:27:26.000There are also military options the president could decide on, but they are not his immediate priority.
03:27:32.000Trump's desire to end the war quickly is at odds with other moves he's planning to make.
03:27:37.000This weekend, the USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit entered the region.
03:27:42.000Trump also ordered elements of the 82nd Airborne and is considering sending another 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East.
03:27:49.000On Monday, White House press secretary Carolyn Levitt told reporters the U.S. was working toward normal operations in the Strait, but didn't list it among core military objectives of targeting Iran's Navy, missiles, defense industry, and its ability to make a nuclear weapon.
03:28:06.000The Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to Al Jazeera, said the current campaign to complete U.S. military objectives will be finished within weeks.
03:28:15.000He said then we will be confronted with this issue of the Strait of Hormuz, and it will be up to Iran to decide or a coalition of nations from around the world and the region with the participation of the United States.
03:28:28.000We will make sure that it's open one way or the other.
03:28:36.000Simultaneously, Trump is making the threat that if Iran doesn't open the strait or doesn't make a deal to open the strait, then we're going to obliterate their entire country.
03:28:48.000We've already destroyed their navy, military, decapitated the leadership.
03:28:52.000Trump says we will finish the job by effectively destroying their economy.
03:28:57.000And this is what Israel wants as well.
03:29:40.000Apparently, this is now the only victory condition because regime changes out and destruction of the missile program is out and securing enriched uranium is out.
03:29:51.000So on the one hand, the only condition remaining to succeed for a deal, for surrender, is this.
03:29:59.000Simultaneously, we're also getting all this talk that we're going to leave regardless.
03:30:04.000And this is coming from White House aides, but it's also coming from the Secretary of State.
03:30:09.000And it's coming from the White House press office.
03:30:11.000Rubio says this is with Al Jazeera, which is a Qatari outlet, the Alphani royal family.
03:30:18.000Rubio says to them, well, we're going to leave and then we'll deal with the Strait of Hormuz later.
03:30:24.000We're going to fight this over the next few weeks until we achieve our military objectives.
03:30:29.000And then the Straits, well, that's for another day.
03:30:33.000He seemed to echo the Wall Street Journal report and says we will resolve that diplomatically with every other country at some other time.
03:31:35.000We've bombed them and now we're just going to come back on a later day.
03:31:40.000So what are we to make of all these different conflicting reports?
03:31:44.000Well, I would say about the Strait of Hormuz, there's something you need to understand about the economic pain that is being applied by Iran.
03:31:53.000And that is that the sharing of economic pain is not even.
03:31:59.000It's not even chronologically, and it's not even even economically either.
03:32:06.000The pain that results from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be felt first by some countries and later by other countries.
03:32:17.000It has to do with the final destination of the energy products.
03:32:22.000The oil and natural gas that comes from the Persian Gulf mostly goes to Asia.
03:32:28.000The oil from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, all of that oil, for the most part, is exported to India, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines.
03:32:43.000This is where the oil actually goes first.
03:32:46.000So if that oil is not going out from the strait, there's a couple of things that are happening.
03:32:52.000And the first thing that is happening is that these countries are not going to get their shipment of oil.
03:34:22.000And we're still getting oil from other sources.
03:34:25.000And so we're only hit by the price shock.
03:34:28.000We're actually not affected necessarily in the same way by the supply crunch.
03:34:34.000And so when Trump says we'll leave the Strait of Hormuz closed, first and foremost, that's a problem for Asia because they're not going to get their oil.
03:34:44.000And if they want it, they're going to have to pay Iran $2 million a pop, which they don't want to do.
03:34:54.000Secondly, it's going to hit Europe because Europe is dependent on Qatar and the United States for liquefied natural gas.
03:35:03.000Europe got a lot of their energy from Russia before the Ukraine war started.
03:35:08.000It was pumped in from Cold War era, Soviet-era pipelines through Ukraine and then through the Nordic Sea.
03:35:16.000And that is where they were getting their energy mix.
03:35:18.000It was a lot of natural gas from Russia.
03:35:21.000Obviously, the United States blew up that pipeline.
03:35:24.000And to replace the natural gas they were getting from Russia, which is not easily replaced, they started to get natural gas from the United States and from Qatar.
03:35:35.000Qatar supplies 20% all by itself of the world's liquefied natural gas.
03:35:40.000You stop that from coming out, and the price of natural gas for Europe goes through the roof.
03:35:53.000And only at the very end of the process is it a problem for the United States.
03:35:58.000And only because of the price shock, only because energy becomes more expensive.
03:36:03.000But we're not necessarily going to run out of energy.
03:36:06.000It is Europe that will have to ration its energy resources.
03:36:10.000It is Asia which will have to ration their energy resources.
03:36:14.000It will be bad globally for the whole economy, but this is like everything else.
03:36:18.000If you understand Trump's MO, this is a game of chicken.
03:36:24.000It's no different than Trump bombing Iran's energy.
03:36:28.000He is daring Iran to retaliate against the Persian Gulf or the Gulf Cooperation Council nations because he's effectively saying, you should really see if we need the Persian Gulf oil as badly as you need it.
03:36:56.000But Trump is trying to convince Iran that if we make a decisive strike on their energy infrastructure, in the long run, they're going to miss it more.
03:37:06.000Yes, it will be bad for us, but our regime will survive.
03:37:09.000Can Iran survive without its military, without the Ayatollah, and without their energy infrastructure?
03:37:17.000Surely they will impose a severe cost, but maybe not as high as the cost we impose on them in the long run.
03:37:25.000And in exactly the same way, Trump is now doing the same to our allies in Asia and Europe.
03:37:32.000Because recall, two weeks ago, Trump pled with Europe and with the G4 countries and the other allies in the Pacific and begged them to assist the United States in opening up the strait, begged them to provide their naval resources, begged them to send their troops to die in this war.
03:38:09.000Now, a week and a half later, the messaging is, well, maybe we'll leave the war and we'll let all of our so-called allies, they can figure it out because they need it more than we do.
03:38:23.000So what's the purpose of that messaging?
03:38:26.000In this case, that messaging isn't for us.
03:38:29.000And certainly that messaging is not for Iran.
03:38:32.000It's mixed messaging for different audiences.
03:38:36.000The message for Iran is you have a deadline.
03:38:40.000If you don't do what we say, we might wipe you off the map.
03:38:43.000And you should be confident that we're serious.
03:38:46.000We know what you're capable of, and we know that you will retaliate against the Gulf, but see if we care.
03:38:53.000If we destroy your energy infrastructure, then you're not going to have a regime in six months.
03:38:58.000It'll just be easier for us to come back.
03:39:00.000That's what Trump is communicating to Iran with the ultimatum yesterday.
03:39:06.000But what he is communicating to Asia and Europe is you better help us.
03:39:10.000You better hope that we succeed because if we don't, and if you don't help us, we're going to leave without solving this problem that we happen to create, but you're going to be left picking up the pieces.
03:39:23.000And Trump is trying to convince these other countries in the same way that he's trying to convince Iran, you need the Strait of Hormuz open more than we do.
03:40:36.000Well, does Iran really believe that the United States is willing to let the Gulf countries be destroyed?
03:40:43.000Because that's surely what would happen.
03:40:46.000We go in and we bomb Carg Island, as we promised to do, and desalination, and we bomb their electrical grid.
03:40:55.000Well, like I said, first and foremost, that is going to cause oil to go even higher, which Trump has done everything in his power to prevent by lying to the press, lying to the markets, changing his operation, changing the playbook depending upon when the markets open and close, opening up the strategic reserves, 261 million barrels of oil were released.
03:41:22.000So does Trump's threat track with how he's approached that problem?
03:41:42.000Does Trump believe they believe that Trump is going to go in, bomb everything at all, but then even more, and then allow Iran to rain missiles on Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, destroy Saudi Aramco, destroy Qatari's LNG, destroy desalination?
03:42:03.000Of course, of course that is unacceptable for the United States.
03:42:07.000Course, he's not going to follow through.
03:42:20.000And on some level, he has to know that they know it's a bluff because it's simply unacceptable.
03:42:26.000Like I said, if we were willing to sacrifice Iran's energy, why would we release the sanctions on the Iranian energy that's already out to sea?
03:42:36.000Why would we let Iran continue to transit oil through the Strait of Hormuz?
03:43:18.000We're going to go to war with Iran and then we're going to let them take control of the strait.
03:43:23.000And they went from controlling 4% of the global energy supply to 20% because now they're charging a toll in the Strait of Hormuz.
03:43:32.000They actually expanded their territory in our war of aggression.
03:43:37.000Does Trump think that these other countries think we're going to do that?
03:43:42.000And by the way, that is going to destroy our economy too.
03:43:46.000And we might be more acutely affected than other countries because it is our economy which is totally reliant on artificial intelligence, which is totally dependent on cheap and abundant energy.
03:44:00.000We actually need more energy than we have, and we have less energy than we started out with.
03:44:07.000So what happens when oil gets to $200 a barrel?
03:44:12.000Well, all of a sudden, all that compute that we have running and all these data centers, which is driving commercial real estate, which is driving the SP 500, which is driving NVIDIA and its valuation, all of that is going to collapse.
03:44:28.000And what happens when that real estate stops being built?
03:44:31.000And what happens when those chips stop being purchased?
03:44:34.000And what happens when all of a sudden, OpenAI and Gemini, and all these other companies that borrowed so much money, what happens when they are no longer profitable or there's no expectation of profitability?
03:44:48.000Well, we're going to have problems too.
03:44:50.000Just because we're not getting the oil from Saudi Arabia doesn't mean this is going to be a walk in the park for us either.
03:45:30.000And Trump did it with China in the trade war.
03:45:33.000On Liberation Day, when Trump announced the tariffs, he said, if China puts retaliatory tariffs on our goods, that we're going to raise the tariff to 100%.
03:46:00.000He told Putin, you have 30 days, you have two weeks, you have 10 days.
03:46:06.000And then when Putin didn't meet the deadline, Trump said, never mind, we're having productive talks and we're just going to cut them some slack.
03:46:15.000We're just going to give them a break anyway.
03:46:18.000Literally every single time with Russia, with China, with Greenland, with all of these countries, this is a person with no credibility.
03:46:28.000This is what eroding deterrence really looks like.
03:46:31.000And fundamentally, it's about overexpansion.
03:46:35.000The United States is still unquestionably a first-tier great power.
03:47:07.000But if they have a nuclear arsenal, a strategic weapon in the case of North Korea, or if they have a conventional arsenal of strategic weapons like Iran, there is little in the way of military action that we can even do.
03:47:21.000So this is overestimating our capability.
03:48:12.000And increasingly, people are starting to look at America as a paper tiger that cannot really and truly follow through on its threats.
03:48:20.000That is not that superpower that took down Saddam Hussein with shock and awe, that was able to push other countries around like it did in the 10 years after the Cold War.
03:48:32.000And this is being undone, ironically, by Trump.
03:48:36.000It was the Democrats that had a doctrine of smart power, using our power in a restrained way, in a tactical way for limited objectives, using it to achieve diplomacy when possible.
03:48:49.000It is under the Trump doctrine, overestimating and overextending our capabilities that now people are starting to see the true limits.
03:48:58.000And we're able to get away with a lot less.
03:49:00.000So the question is, does anybody really believe this?
03:49:03.000When Trump says, we're going to destroy all your stuff, we're going to let them keep the Strait of Hormuz, the answer is clearly no.
03:49:12.000And what it shows is that Trump is truly stuck in this conflict.
03:49:17.000You think about if plan A was we pound Iran as hard as we can and we hope that they topple or if they don't, that they don't close the Strait of Hormuz.
03:49:32.000Because it seems like the alternative is now we're going to try to rush a small force to the Persian Gulf.
03:49:39.000We're going to bluff and we're going to make up a bunch of stuff.
03:49:43.000We're going to start sounding crazy and make all these demands again that everybody knows we have no ability to follow through on.
03:49:50.000And then in the end, we're going to try an extremely risky operation to try to salvage this.
03:49:59.000We're going to escalate it, put more Americans in harm's way.
03:50:03.000We're going to risk a real strategic humiliation, a real tactical defeat, in order to resign without looking like a complete embarrassment.
03:50:18.000While all of this is going on, the Marines, the first group, has arrived in the Persian Gulf, and the paratroopers are arriving in the Persian Gulf this week.
03:50:30.000And another aircraft carrier is arriving.
03:50:33.000In the meantime, Trump is saying simultaneously, while he's making threats, threatening to walk away without opening the strait, he is telling the media that we have made a deal with Iran.
03:50:45.000And this is how you know that what is coming is a military operation.
03:50:51.000Because he is simply saying things that are not true.
03:50:54.000He is telling the press that Iran has accepted the 15-point plan, which they have outright rejected.
03:51:02.000And they've actually rejected negotiating altogether because of the plan.
03:51:08.000They've said unless the United States walks back some of these ridiculous demands, we can't even sit with you.
03:51:16.000And Trump is not only saying that negotiations are underway, he's saying that they're pleading for negotiations and that they've already agreed.
03:51:27.000At the same time, he's extending his own deadline over and over.
03:51:31.000Well, if he was really looking for an exit, if he was really bored with the fighting, interested in other priorities, if he was really going to walk away without opening the strait, why wouldn't he have walked away yesterday?
03:51:46.000If the deadline was on Friday, why would he not have walked away this weekend?
03:51:52.000Why wait for another week of economic pain?
03:51:57.000Why wait another week of an energy crunch?
03:52:03.000Why would he wait another week if there's no peace process underway?
03:52:07.000If Iran is not becoming more compliant because they're not really under pressure, why not just cut our losses now?
03:52:15.000It doesn't make sense because this is what is being telegraphed and signaled by the White House.
03:52:52.000All that it would profit us to extend the war one more week arbitrarily is it's going to make oil cost more and it's going to cost everything cost more in the long run so if something doesn't add up it means that something else is happening behind the scenes and i think it's very clear that the peace talks are a sham And to the extent that you're reading about these things in the media, this is meant to reassure the markets.
03:53:20.000And it's also meant to signal to the other allies that maybe they should help.
03:53:25.000I think that's been the strategy for the past week and a half.
03:53:28.000Even to the extent that Trump says we're going to bomb their oil, that would have the same effect as letting the Strait of Hormuz remain closed.
03:53:35.000If Trump says he's going to bomb Iran's energy sector, that ultimately has a worse effect than leaving the Strait of Hormuz in the hands of Tehran, at least for Asia, and then secondarily for Europe.
03:53:48.000So that's just as much of a threat against Tehran as it is for all those other countries.
03:53:53.000And that type of messaging has simply not stopped since those countries refused to assist.
03:54:00.000Trump recognized he got trapped, called for help from his allies, embarrassingly.
03:54:07.000And ever since then, Trump has been threatening Iran, but also all of them.
03:54:12.000We're going to hurt your long-term energy prices and supply by bombing Iran, letting them bomb the Gulf, and leaving the Strait of Hormuz in their control.
03:54:23.000In the meantime, he's been hedging now, or rather, I should say, everything has now become about opening up the strait, open it up or else, only for him today and his State Department and White House to start telegraphing.
03:55:04.000He's bluffing against Asia and he's bluffing against Europe.
03:55:09.000Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, they all want Iran to get hit more before we leave.
03:55:16.000Trump is telling them, well, if you want to hit Iran more, then why don't you help?
03:55:21.000And these Asian and European countries, they want to make a deal.
03:55:25.000Trump is telling them, if you want the straight open so badly, then you need to help.
03:55:30.000And he's telling Iran, if you don't want us to actually visit destruction upon your country, then you should just cut us a deal.
03:55:38.000But he's creating options for himself.
03:55:42.000And if none of these come through, or to whatever extent help is contributed, Trump is preparing for a ground incursion in Iran.
03:55:52.000And that seems to be the ultimate play.
03:55:56.000How are we going to exit without giving Iran the strait, exit without losing our deterrence and our credibility and legitimacy?
03:56:05.000It is by winning a decisive battle against Iran, taking hostage something they can't live without, and that's Karg Island, or it's an attempt to reopen the strait through military force.
03:56:18.000And I continue to believe that until that happens, it's about as transparent as it can get, which is that they're buying time, leveraging allies as they prepare all the way to retake those islands unilaterally with this Marine force, reinforce it with the paratroopers, and then ground forces from the rest of the infantry.
03:57:36.000So Iran has developed strategic weapons.
03:57:40.000Their nuclear hedge, their missile arsenal, their drone and missile industry, as well as the proxy network.
03:57:48.000Well, these capabilities have now brought the United States into the equation because these capabilities threaten Israel necessarily.
03:57:56.000And that doesn't mean that Iran will use them offensively or aggressively, but it does mean every weapon has a deterrent as well as an offensive capability.
03:58:06.000You can't distinguish between the two.
03:58:09.000The United States has nuclear missiles.
03:58:11.000You could just as easily say those exist to deter Russia as you can say they exist to destroy Russia, because ultimately deterrence is the threat of destruction.
03:58:21.000So because Iran has this stockpile of strategic weapons, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, nuclear enrichment, as well as the proxies, it necessarily threatens the regional order because it puts the Gulf countries in those concentric circles of the range of those weapons, as well as Israel and U.S. bases.
03:58:45.000So this is where we are brought into the equation.
03:58:49.000Now, fundamentally, we are brought into this equation because of Israel.
03:59:27.000Well, we're seeing why, because Iran is a huge country with 90 million people, four times the size of Iraq, mountains and desert.
03:59:36.000They've got a middle class, a big economy, oil-rich.
03:59:39.000They've got allies in Russia and China.
03:59:42.000Israel, a nation of 9 million people, could never step to Iran.
03:59:47.000And they especially can never step to Iran when Iran has them encircled by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Shiite militias in other countries, and especially, especially not when Iran has 3,000 missiles.
04:00:03.000That if it were a war only between Tel Aviv and Tehran, Iran would wipe Israel out with that missile arsenal.
04:00:11.000So Israel has to bring in the United States to destroy those weapons, to render Iran defenseless, so that the U.S. and Israel can topple Iran.
04:01:13.000So for example, last year, when we bombed Iran the first time, what was the pretext?
04:01:19.000We bombed Iran in Midnight Hammer because Israel provoked a war with Iran and couldn't finish their attack on Iran's nuclear complex.
04:01:29.000Where they're enriching the uranium, it's too far underground for Israel to reach.
04:01:33.000They don't have the ordinance to destroy it.
04:01:36.000And so you could say that Israel started the job and initiating that hostility meant that Iran would accelerate their race towards a nuclear bomb.
04:01:44.000If Israel bombs their nuclear facilities, well, what's Iran going to do?
04:01:49.000They're going to speedrun to a nuclear bomb to actualize their deterrent.
04:01:55.000But because Israel couldn't finish the job, it forced the United States to intervene.
04:02:01.000By starting something Israel couldn't finish, by hitting those weapons, which are use them or lose them, Iran recognized in that moment they would either break out and become a nuclear power, or they would lose deterrence and they would get bombed all the time by Israel and the United States.
04:02:20.000And Israel could not prevent them from breaking out after that point.
04:02:24.000They triggered a countdown timer, and that meant the United States had to jump in.
04:02:30.000Israel can't finish the job, but they initiated the countdown to an Iranian bomb.
04:06:48.000What do you think the options are after this operation fails?
04:06:52.000And surely, what else could be the outcome?
04:06:56.000If Iran can continue to hit the Persian Gulf and the Gulf Cooperation Council, if they can bomb one of our AWACs in Saudi Arabia with precision, what makes it think they can't hit their own island?
04:07:08.000What makes it think they can't hit the islands in the strait?
04:08:12.000And so is, by the way, Saudi Arabia's eastern province where all the oil is.
04:08:18.000So what happens when the Houthis close the Red Sea?
04:08:21.000What happens when the Houthis bomb Saudi Arabia?
04:08:24.000What happens when the Shiites in Saudi's eastern province and Bahrain and Iraq, what happens when they get restive?
04:08:31.000What happens when they storm the consulate or embassy in Baghdad and fucking kill everybody?
04:08:37.000What happens when an all-out war breaks out between the U.S. position in Erbil and the Shiite militias headquartered in Baghdad or elsewhere in Iraq?
04:09:24.000Israel is going to unload on them in the final, however many hours of the conflict, and they're going to cripple Iran's economy.
04:09:32.000Iran's command and control is already defective, and they're just going to sit back while Mossad goes to work and they're going to wait for the civil war in six to nine months.
04:09:43.000Or Trump is going to escalate, try to invade one of the islands on the ground.
04:09:48.000If it goes well, if it doesn't go well, casualties are going to be high.
04:09:52.000It's only going to draw us further in.
04:11:16.000And as you know, Israel is still hell-bent on getting the regime change they want, and they're going to get it one way or excuse me, one way or the other.
04:23:20.000I go to places where they are not, but it's like screaming, screaming, talking, talking so loud, so obnoxious, fat, morbidly obese, ass hanging out, tits hanging out, yelling across the room, yelling at the waiter.
04:23:40.000Oh, and they probably tip 1% if they're lucky, if they tipped it off, they paid.
04:23:46.000This is why we can't have nice things.
04:23:50.000And I almost think they deliberately put us there because it was almost like there was a white section and a black section.
04:23:56.000It was like the black people were all the way over here and the rest of the restaurant was white people.
04:28:12.000seems to be the inevitable endpoint because of nonsense like this sprinkles sent fifty dollars nick is right about everything the only thing he ever lied about is the show's start time if that is the worst it gets i think we can all live with that Ritardmode sent $20.
04:36:08.000Have you shifted your opinion on why so many Jews are anti-Russia at all?
04:36:11.000You have said that Jews aren't opposed to Putin and that he is an ally, but the same Jews pushing the USA into Iran are the exact same ones who pushed the USA to support Ukraine.
04:44:51.000Keith Woods is very adamant that Verillium gets the credit he deserves because he just wants everyone to get the credit that's coming their way.
04:45:10.000I would absolutely force the president of the United States to publicly admit that Israel forced this war and that I was the one who had to sue for peace.
04:45:15.000I'm going to like literally kill myself and all of you.
04:46:16.000I said, Whitney Webb is so unprofessional.
04:46:18.000She gets on a Zoom call in like a cardigan or a hoodie.
04:46:22.000She gets on a Zoom call in a zip up hoodie, sitting cross-legged on the couch with her fucking boyfriend holding a glass like this, drinking red wine.
04:46:31.000And she's like, I do not drink red wine out of a glass.
04:47:21.000Nick Fuentes lies about me all the time.
04:47:24.000Like he claims I'm unprofessional because I allegedly have a video podcast where I sit on my couch and drink, quote, red wine in a mug, even though I have no podcast and I don't even drink alcohol.
04:47:38.000He makes shit up about me and also attacked me for calling Kent an op, claiming I didn't bring up teal-funded Kent when I clearly did in the clip.
04:47:46.000I know Fuentes has been, and blah, blah, blah.
04:47:48.000She goes on about this, but the red wine thing was super funny.
04:52:43.000Thank you to our top super chatters: Propeller Dog, Devin, Gamer, Dragon, Line Dancing Nick, Copypasta, Jesse Lee Peterson, Salty, EO Groyper, Groyper Mom, and Francesco.