00:09:25.000By a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means, expanding our sphere of influence.
00:09:40.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
00:09:55.000An overflowing of love, an overflowing of self-giving love, so much of it it cannot be contained.
00:10:08.000An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children.
00:10:14.000Even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
00:10:22.000That is what makes us different, that is what makes us good.
00:10:59.000Read as many books as you can, learn a language, learn an instrument, get the best grades you can, get into a good school, and just don't mess around.
00:11:07.000You turn like 18, 20, and then it just goes at light speed.
00:11:12.000And if you are wasting time, years will go by.
00:11:16.000And you will wake up when you're 25 years old and say, I thought I would have accomplished more by now.
00:11:21.000Why am I still stuck in the same place?
00:11:24.000Let time be your ally by working every single day at what you think you want to be doing in 20 years.
00:11:39.000The servant who received five talents invested it and earned five more.
00:11:44.000The one who received two talents also invested wisely and earned two more.
00:11:49.000But the servant who received one talent went and dug a hole in the ground and hid his master's money.
00:11:57.000When the master returned, the servant with five talents said, Master, you gave me five and look, I've gained five more.
00:12:05.000The master replied, Well done, good and faithful servant.
00:12:09.000Because you have been faithful with little, I will put you in charge of much.
00:12:14.000The servant with two talents said, Master, you gave me two, and look, I've gained two more.
00:13:22.000Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
00:13:26.000If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
00:13:34.000People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
00:13:43.000Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
00:13:46.000But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
00:14:26.000After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
00:15:24.000When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
00:30:28.000If Israel controls that region, How rich, how powerful can they become?
00:30:34.000My issue with Iranian regime change is that we are creating an Israeli superpower that not even we will be able to restrain.
00:30:43.000Look at how they have used us like an instrument.
00:30:46.000They stole a nuclear arsenal from us, they got all of this military technology from us, we defeated their foes, and now we have essentially handed this to them.
00:30:56.000Now they're ready to cut the umbilical cord and become their own superpower.
00:31:00.000We endured the cost, we paid the money, our soldiers died, our country burned so that.
00:31:05.000A Israeli superpower could be born, and now our country will be in the wreckage.
00:37:19.000Remember when I grabbed my shit, I said, no buys, I'm dippin.
00:37:23.000Remember when I said I changed, I'm new, I'm here, I listen.
00:37:26.000I know all this shit's so mean, but I'm really tryna fix it, fix it.
00:37:29.000You can go side to side, I sweat shot, I assume you're lookin' at me You can go low with a high, it's tough, aren't you, that like nobody else can see But I could be mean tonight, but that's not what I'm tryna be I could be mean tonight, No, I'm tryna be nice.
00:44:38.000Ace, I be from the back, she gripping them covers like she on her last leg She look like she belong on the cover, this hoe getting covered in everything I'ma have a hypo, take a banana, but she is not getting wet in rain If he wants to interview Nick for what then, get the word out It's undeniable.
00:45:47.000Shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down.
00:47:01.000We've paved the way with our corpses Droipers and all the alt-riders that got banned, all the alt-riders that got slandered, even people that killed themselves.
00:47:12.000Our corpses paved the way for you now to walk over.
00:47:17.000And you can't give us acknowledgement.
00:49:26.000They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
00:49:33.000If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
00:49:51.000Comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
00:57:52.000The United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
00:57:58.000To consign the American empire to destruction while they look forward to a golden age, while they look forward to a century of empire and domination.
00:58:08.000Maybe we can't stop it, but I'm not going along with that.
00:58:46.000When Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel, which started the Yom Kippur War on October 6th, 1973, almost 50 years exactly before October 7th, Israel was almost overrun.
00:58:59.000And the United States was reluctant to provide them with the military support that they needed to defend themselves.
00:59:05.000So the Prime Minister of Israel, Golda Meir, called up Nixon.
00:59:10.000And said, if you don't help us, we will nuke Syria and Egypt.
00:59:48.000We're like the SWAT team of Free Thought, and I go on with this battle ram at the door, and then they come in with these laser beams and have that information.
01:00:13.000Groyper dating app, who, AF legal team to represent Groyper's who are fired from work or kicked out of school for being a Groyper.
01:13:56.000You're raised by your parents, you go to school, you finish school, then you move into an apartment as a single man or woman, and you go to work.
01:15:03.000So it's totally fair for us to recognize that the countries around Russia, no, we shouldn't be invading or torturing them or oppressing them.
01:15:12.000And big picture, holy smokes, you do not want the two largest powers in the world, apart from the United States, to get together and align against us.
01:15:21.000Why do you support Israel against Hamas, for example?
01:15:25.000Why do you support America giving them billions of dollars?
01:26:10.000We've been covering this war for over 100 days at this point.
01:26:15.000Realistically, it's been something like two and a half years in the making ever since October 7th and the end of 2023.
01:26:25.000And now, by all appearances, according to Pakistan, the United States, and Iran, it seems that the war is about to come to an end on Friday.
01:26:46.000There will be a formal signing ceremony, although it is symbolic, which will take place on Friday.
01:26:54.000And then this new agreement will be in effect and end hostilities, potentially permanently, between the United States and Iran.
01:27:04.000So tonight we're going to get into that.
01:27:05.000We're going to talk about the details of the agreement.
01:27:09.000We're going to talk about what's in it or what is rumored or suspected to be in it.
01:27:14.000Because, of course, one of the big problems, which is already emerging, Is that we don't even know what's in the deal.
01:27:23.000It was announced yesterday that there is a memorandum of understanding.
01:27:28.000This is something like a framework for a short term truce.
01:27:33.000And although all sides through these indirect negotiations and the mediators are saying that we have a deal and there is agreement, we have not actually seen what's in it.
01:27:47.000We don't know with any specificity what is covered and what.
01:27:53.000And so, because of that, it's hard actually to know what is even going on.
01:27:59.000And this raises some questions about whether there even is an agreement at all.
01:28:05.000We know there is a memorandum of understanding, we know there is something resembling a framework for an agreement.
01:28:12.000But already, 24 hours has passed, there are some discrepancies that have emerged between the two sides and their understanding of what's in the deal.
01:28:21.000Iran is saying that the deal is one thing, we are saying that it is.
01:28:28.000And so, unless and until we actually see the agreement and what's in it, well, one, it's hard to know what actually the agreement is.
01:28:36.000And then, moreover, if there even is one.
01:28:40.000So, we're going to get into what is suspected to be in the deal.
01:28:43.000We're going to work through some of these discrepancies and we'll talk about what each side is claiming in the deal.
01:28:50.000And based on that, we're going to talk about whether it's even going to happen and what the prospects are that there'll be a longer term permanent peace agreement in the future.
01:29:00.000Because so much of what is even said to be in the deal is actually stuff that's going to be figured out at a later date.
01:29:09.000And I would say that the way to understand the agreement is they're effectively deferring all of the real issues concerning centrifuges, concerning highly enriched uranium, sanctions, frozen funds.
01:29:23.000All of that is going to be talked about within the next 60 days.
01:29:28.000This agreement is formalizing the ceasefire and extending it for 60 days.
01:29:34.000And you could say that maybe this is happening with a little bit more finality than the original ceasefire in April.
01:29:41.000But we are not really over the finish line quite yet.
01:29:45.000I think it's maybe overstating it to say that the war is over.
01:29:50.000It seems like it may actually be far from over.
01:30:05.000From the very beginning, ever since October 7th, and throughout all of this the fighting in Gaza, the fighting in Lebanon, the fighting in Iran one of the reasons that I have had the best record predicting everything that has happened and why I've had the best analysis of everything in the conflict is because, of course, I and we are the only people that affirm Israel's central role in driving all of these events.
01:30:34.000And there are other commentators that will acknowledge that Israel is playing a part.
01:30:40.000And of course, they will acknowledge what side Israel is on, what their agenda is, and what they want to happen.
01:30:47.000But I think that almost everybody else, other than this movement and myself in particular, they really understate the extent to which Israel is actually the engine of everything.
01:31:01.000They are setting the tempo, they are the catalyst.
01:31:05.000They are the precipitating cause of all of the major events.
01:31:16.000And everybody else is really along for the ride.
01:31:19.000You could say they are acting and everybody else is reacting.
01:31:24.000Everybody else is maneuvering according to how Israel acts in the theater.
01:31:30.000And so, once again, just as before, we cannot really talk about the U.S. Iran deal.
01:31:37.000Mediated by Pakistan and Qatar without talking about what Israel's response is going to be and how they are involved.
01:31:47.000And what seems to be the case in this agreement, just like in the original ceasefire in April, is that this entire thing is going to hinge upon Israel's compliance.
01:31:58.000Sort of ironic because the parties to the agreement are the United States and Iran.
01:32:05.000And each of them are trying to build rapport.
01:32:08.000And they're going to carry out certain provisions of the agreement based on performance or compliance, whether each side is holding up their end of the bargain.
01:32:18.000And yet, whether the agreement succeeds is really dependent on the actions of a country that is not even involved in the agreement.
01:32:29.000And that is Israel, specifically concerning their conduct in Lebanon.
01:32:34.000Whether we have a deal, whether the ceasefire or this memorandum of understanding will hold, or whether the whole thing will come apart.
01:32:41.000It really depends upon whether Israel is going to go along with the agreement, whether they will abide by what Trump wants them to do, which is to stop bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon.
01:32:55.000And so we're going to talk a little bit about the background there over the past two weeks, but also over the past eight weeks, and how that theater is influencing what is happening in the Persian Gulf.
01:33:10.000Because that's, I would say, kind of the operative.
01:34:33.000And I think there's a couple of other stories like Gavin Newsom and some other things.
01:34:38.000We're going to have to save that for tomorrow and Wednesday.
01:34:40.000But for tonight, I want to make sure we focus everything on the MOU and the future of the conflict with Iran because this is very important stuff.
01:35:50.000For $100 a month, you get to be in my exclusive Telegram group chat.
01:35:56.000And I'm in there, so you can talk to me, hang out with me.
01:36:00.000And I'm also leaving a lot of bonus content in there.
01:36:03.000As the MOU was being negotiated, I was in there all day yesterday dropping bonus content.
01:36:11.000I think I wound up doing about an hour, hour and a half.
01:36:15.000Of extra content in the group chat just today and yesterday, talking about everything.
01:36:20.000So, if you don't want to wait for the show, like during the weekend, if you don't want to wait for my take, you got to get in the group chat because that's where all the best analysis is being posted.
01:36:56.000Oliver Tree, who is like a dance music, I guess that's what it is like electronic dance music artist, died in a helicopter crash in Brazil over the weekend.
01:38:06.000How many celebrities have to die before you just, especially if you're a celebrity?
01:38:13.000I understand if you're a civilian, you might think the coast is clear, but I feel like celebrities are dying in helicopter crashes like every few months.
01:38:25.000So if you're a celebrity, you just can't.
01:41:04.000Obviously, there's some very big news, which is that at long last, we finally have the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.
01:41:15.000And there is so much to say about it because, like with everything else in this war, it's very ambiguous.
01:41:26.000And this has characterized the war from the beginning.
01:41:28.000The way that I would say it is the war is happening in reality.
01:41:34.000And at the same time, the war is being talked about in press releases and through the media.
01:41:41.000And what is interesting is that what is being said through press releases and in the media almost has no relation to what is actually happening in reality in the world.
01:41:53.000And what I mean by that is how many times have we heard over the past three and a half months.
01:41:59.000That a ceasefire is imminent, that we have these advanced negotiations.
01:42:04.000How many times has Trump threatened to bomb Iran or annihilate their civilization?
01:42:09.000There has been so much deception about what exactly we are doing there, the number of casualties, the extent of the damage we're inflicting, the objectives in the conflict, what the strategy is.
01:43:05.000Now, they're calling it a memorandum of understanding.
01:43:09.000This is different from a treaty because a treaty has to be ratified by the legislature.
01:43:16.000It's even different than an agreement.
01:43:19.000A memorandum of understanding is much more informal, it's more of an agreement in principle without a lot of specifics, and it doesn't govern all of the big issues.
01:43:33.000So, what this really is, the way to think about it, Is this a formalization of the ceasefire that was already in place?
01:43:42.000Technically speaking, there has been a ceasefire between the United States and Iran since around April 8th, but that was never a written agreement.
01:43:52.000That is something that was announced by President Trump on True Social.
01:43:57.000It was acknowledged by the Iranian government and the intermediary which negotiated this, which brokered the deal, which was Pakistan.
01:44:05.000But there was never a written agreement, it was never signed, it was never ratified.
01:44:11.000So, you have this very informal, let's say, a truce or a ceasefire.
01:44:17.000Now, this is being upgraded to what they're calling a memorandum of understanding.
01:44:22.000Now, this, as far as we know, is a written agreement and it will be signed by both parties.
01:44:30.000But this, too, just like the ceasefire, is also a short term truce.
01:44:38.000And in particular, it governs the actual operational details.
01:44:43.000On the ground, specifically as it pertains to military operations in Lebanon, in the Persian Gulf, what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's closure of it, the U.S. economic blockade of the Strait, as well as potentially some monetary transfers.
01:45:03.000Now, like I said, there is an agreement.
01:45:05.000Apparently, it is written and it also has been signed.
01:45:08.000So, there was all this talk over the weekend that an agreement had been reached, and they said it would be signed this week.
01:46:25.000So we could see it as soon as tomorrow or Wednesday.
01:46:29.000But other members of the government, like President Trump, have said that we will see the agreement after Friday, after it is signed in a ceremony in Switzerland on Friday.
01:47:34.000It says, quote, With the full text of the deal to end the war between the U.S. and Iran still under wraps, confusion reigned on Monday about just what negotiators for the two countries had actually agreed to.
01:47:47.000Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel said the Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon, and Iran disputed contentions by the Trump administration that ships will be able to transit the Strait of Hormuz without charge, saying it intended to charge fees but not tolls.
01:48:04.000A ceremonial signing of the agreement is to take place on Friday in Geneva.
01:48:08.000On Sunday, the United States and Iran signed a framework agreement ending their months long war.
01:48:14.000But a day later, officials on both sides were making conflicting statements about its terms.
01:48:19.000The agreement's immediate scope was focused primarily on ending military strikes and allowing traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping lane.
01:48:29.000But American and Iranian officials acknowledged that they had put off discussions of their most serious disagreements until a later round of talks.
01:48:37.000For his part, Mr. Netanyahu on Monday appeared to distance himself from the deal.
01:48:42.000And to suggest that he did not feel bound by it.
01:48:45.000Mr. Trump said the deal would restart safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait as soon as Friday, solving a problem which did not exist until the U.S. and Israel initiated the war.
01:48:56.000Returning the Strait to its pre war conditions could relieve Americans of soaring gas prices.
01:49:02.000And after the deal, a 60 day period of negotiations toward a comprehensive peace agreement would begin.
01:49:09.000The talks are likely to be complex and the deal could still come apart.
01:49:13.000Abbas Arakshi, Iran's foreign minister, said on Monday that negotiations would grapple with two issues on which neither side has shown much willingness to compromise, which is the easing of American economic sanctions against Iran and limiting Tehran's nuclear program.
01:49:29.000And they will be made more difficult, he said, by a history of broken promises.
01:49:34.000So here is what we know about the deal.
01:49:37.000What the deal covers, and this is the structure of the deal.
01:49:41.000The deal covers in particular the actual fighting between the United States and Iran.
01:49:48.000So, we could call that the business of the actual ceasefire.
01:49:52.000So, what the memorandum of understanding does first and foremost is it ends the war.
01:49:57.000It says that there's a cessation of all hostilities in the Persian Gulf, and then maybe more controversially and more contentiously, also in Lebanon.
01:50:09.000Number two, it governs what happens in the Strait.
01:50:13.000So currently, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian commercial shipping.
01:50:21.000So, in addition to ending all hostilities in the Gulf and in Lebanon, the deal also has this mutual opening of the Strait.
01:50:29.000The U.S. ends its blockade, and Iran opens up the Strait.
01:50:33.000So, you could say that's the business of the Strait of Hormuz and its opening.
01:50:38.000The third part of the deal is actually talking about the.
01:50:44.000Future negotiations on the deeper, more systemic issues, which are the nuclear program and the sanctions.
01:50:53.000And if you recall, those are actually the reasons the war started in the first place.
01:50:58.000This is why the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran last year.
01:51:02.000And ostensibly, this is why we attacked Iran again this year.
01:51:07.000It was to degrade or potentially destroy Iran's nuclear program, to degrade and destroy their missile arsenal.
01:51:18.000Now, we're not even considering regime change, obviously.
01:51:21.000The Iranian regime will not negotiate its own destruction.
01:51:25.000Iran has ruled out any discussions about their missile program or their proxies.
01:51:31.000And so, the only issue that we actually got into the war in the first place to solve, which is the nuclear issue, is not even covered by this memorandum of understanding.
01:51:42.000The only thing the MOU says about that is that we're going to talk about it later.
01:51:46.000And so you could say the third thing is the business of future talks.
01:51:51.000It says that while this ceasefire is extended and while we open up the strait, there will be a 60 day period where we basically negotiate the rest.
01:52:03.000And so then, once this MOU is finalized, once we have the ceremonial signing on Friday and the war ends, the strait opens, then there's sort of like a phase two that begins.
01:52:17.000There's this 60 day period where now we're going to get down to business and figure out what we're going to do about Iran's centrifuges, which enrich uranium, their already existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and then how we're going to incentivize them to do this by over time unfreezing the money that has been frozen in foreign banks, which is Iranian money, and the lifting of primary and secondary sanctions,
01:52:46.000which have been applied because of Iran's nuclear program.
01:52:49.000So, those are kind of the three big categories of the MOU.
01:52:54.000It is ending the war, it's opening up the strait, and then it's talking about the future conditions under which we'll negotiate about those deeper, more structural issues.
01:53:05.000Now, the first thing to say about the MOU, which is really interesting, and this is really the headline and this is the obvious, is this basically confirms that the United States has lost the war.
01:53:19.000One way to look at this is it is a unilateral surrender.
01:53:23.000This is a unilateral withdrawal and ending of the conflict by the United States because we lost.
01:53:32.000The war for us became too economically costly.
01:53:36.000Too militarily costly, such that we could not sustain it.
01:53:41.000And what I'm talking about specifically is as long as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, we are being bled economically because of the high oil prices, which can only be offset by depleting our strategic petroleum reserve, which is about to run out.
01:53:58.000It just hit the lowest level since the Reagan administration 50 years ago.
01:54:03.000So we have literally been bled dry of oil.
01:54:39.000Because Iran was giving us concessions.
01:54:42.000We stopped bombing Iran because it was hurting us more than it was hurting them.
01:54:47.000As long as we were bombing Iran, Iran was raining missiles and drones on the Gulf countries, US bases, and Israel.
01:54:56.000And it got to a point where it was draining our stockpile of missile interceptors, which we're going to need for future conflicts.
01:55:03.000We burned through, by some estimates, 70% of our stockpile.
01:55:08.000And then, notwithstanding the fact that we're burning up all our interceptors, Iran's drones and missiles are still impacting U.S. bases and the Gulf countries, and they've done hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to nine to 15 U.S. military installations.
01:55:27.000So it was becoming economically costly because of the oil.
01:55:31.000It's also becoming unbearable militarily because they're basically destroying our military footprint, which exists in about a half dozen countries across the Middle East.
01:55:42.000So we were in a position where we had to sue for peace.
01:55:46.000And the reason you know this is because.
01:55:48.000Ask yourself if this MOU only governs these three issues, which are we're going to stop bombing them permanently, Iran is going to open up the strait, and then there's a commitment to talk about their nuclear program in the future.
01:56:04.000Ask yourself, what are we getting out of this agreement?
01:56:26.000So, not bombing them anymore, forcing Israel to stop bombing Lebanon, that's a win for Iran and Hezbollah because we initiated the hostilities.
01:56:38.000Opening up the strait, well, the strait was open before the war.
01:56:51.000What was already happening before the war.
01:56:54.000And then, as far as future negotiations on the nuclear program are concerned, well, we were already negotiating a nuclear deal last year, this year.
01:57:05.000The Biden administration was doing it in 21 and 23.
01:57:33.000What we got out of it is a return to the status quo before the war.
01:57:38.000So, we have secured nothing out of the agreement, even when you're looking at the categories.
01:57:44.000But then it gets even worse when you talk about what is in the deal, what actually is in these specific categories.
01:57:52.000Like, for example, the Strait of Hormuz in particular.
01:57:55.000Not only is Iran merely opening up the Strait, which was open before the war started.
01:58:02.000But the strait is being opened under new conditions.
01:58:06.000Unlike before the war, now Iran is claiming formal and legal control over the strait.
01:58:15.000So, one way to say this is that before the war, Iran was responsible for 4% of the world's oil exports.
01:58:23.000So, they controlled 4% of the world's oil because that is the oil that they produced and exported.
01:58:31.000And so, whether they constrained their own supply, You could say that they had control and influence over 4% of the world's oil.
01:58:39.000Well, the Strait of Hormuz has 20% of the world's oil moving through it every single day.
01:58:47.000If Iran is now claiming that they legally and formally control that waterway and they reserve the right to close it completely or selectively, if they're claiming they have the right to demand that all shipping has to get permission from the IRGC.
01:59:05.000And maybe even pay a fee or a toll to get access to the Strait, that means they've effectively annexed the Strait and they've taken control over 20% of the world's oil.
01:59:17.000If they get full control over whether that oil goes to the market or not, that means they control now a fifth of the world's oil supply.
01:59:29.000Not only are we negotiating to open the Strait, which had been opened prior to the conflict, now the Strait is opening under new management.
01:59:38.000And we're effectively conceding it to Iran.
02:00:02.000In order for them to even negotiate with us and come to the table, we talked about one, unfreezing their frozen assets, which are being held in foreign banks.
02:00:12.000And then separately, we're also talking about a fund, which is much bigger than that, created by the Gulf countries, which will subsidize the reconstruction of Iran's country to the tune of $300 billion.
02:00:29.000We're getting nothing, even when you consider the categories.
02:00:32.000The deal is we're going to stop bombing you.
02:00:35.000The strait will be opened like it was before, but also you now own it.
02:00:40.000And in order for us to get the privilege of you giving us the oil that we were already getting and you making money off of it, we're also going to pay you.
02:00:49.000We're going to unfreeze $25 billion in previously frozen assets, and we're going to put together a consortium of Gulf countries to fund your reconstruction to the tune of $300 billion.
02:01:34.000Think about everything that has happened over the past 100 days.
02:01:38.000You've got more than a dozen dead Americans, hundreds injured, tens, maybe hundreds of billions of dollars.
02:01:46.000In damage to U.S. bases and other military facilities in the region, we've probably spent something like $100 billion on the actual fighting itself, the carrier strike groups, the interceptors, the 15,000 airstrikes, the actual price tag of it maybe was $100 billion.
02:02:05.000Then it's the cost of replenishing the strategic petroleum reserve.
02:02:14.000And in the end, what did we actually accomplish?
02:02:19.000What we set out to achieve was regime change, destroying their missile production capability and stockpile, destroying their drone production capability and stockpile, getting the highly enriched uranium out of the country, destroying their nuclear centrifuges.
02:03:41.000And they're going to spin it, the administration is going to finesse this, and they're going to do these semantic tricks to try to convince you that Iran isn't really getting what they got.
02:04:32.000But I do want to get into some of these specific provisions.
02:04:34.000So let's talk about these different categories.
02:04:37.000Now, what are the actual terms of the agreement?
02:04:40.000This is where it gets a little bit tricky because there's some disagreement.
02:04:45.000What has been reported by the Iranian side is this.
02:04:50.000And we're going to start with Iran because they were the first ones to actually leak the details through their state broadcaster.
02:04:56.000Then we'll talk about what is in contention from the U.S. side.
02:05:01.000So, what Iran says is in the agreement is as follows it is a permanent ceasefire and end to hostilities on all fronts.
02:05:11.000Which means the Persian Gulf, but also in Lebanon.
02:05:15.000So Iran is telling us this memorandum of understanding, it means the war between the US and Iran is over, but also the war between Israel and Hezbollah is over, also.
02:05:28.000It means Israel cannot bomb Lebanon anymore.
02:05:38.000Number two, it says that the United States will end its blockade.
02:05:42.000Its economic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran will open the Strait to commercial shipping.
02:05:49.000They say this will happen after the signing ceremony on Friday, and it will happen simultaneously, meaning the U.S. blockade will end at the same time that Iran opens the Strait.
02:07:15.000Then there are some monetary attributes as well.
02:07:18.000Iran is claiming that the United States will unfreeze $25 billion in frozen funds upon completion of the 60 day period of negotiations, and that 50% of those funds will be made available up front.
02:07:35.000So it's $25 billion in frozen assets held in foreign banks.
02:07:39.000They will be unfrozen under the life of the deal, but up front, Iran gets half.
02:07:45.000So this is that $12 billion number you're hearing.
02:07:48.000Iran is claiming they're getting $12 billion up front.
02:07:52.000Not contingent on compliance or performance.
02:08:09.000And this sounds like the Gaza Peace Board.
02:08:12.000It's going to be spearheaded by Jared Kushner, like the Gaza Peace Board.
02:08:16.000It's going to involve the Gulf countries, like the Gaza Peace Board.
02:08:21.000Jared Kushner has a lot of relationships.
02:08:23.000As does Steve Witkoff, the other chief negotiator, Howard Lutnick.
02:08:27.000They do a lot of business in Qatar, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia.
02:08:31.000Presumably, it will be coming out of those sovereign wealth funds.
02:08:35.000They'll be funding through some consortium, this big fund, $300 billion to rebuild Iran.
02:08:41.000That's the second big monetary aspect, and that's separate from the frozen funds.
02:08:47.000You got $25 billion in frozen funds, which belongs to Iran.
02:08:51.000It's technically Iranian assets, they're just getting access to it.
02:08:54.000Then, on top of that, separately, you have a $300 billion reconstruction fund being funded by the Gulf.
02:09:02.000Thirdly, the United States is giving sanctions waivers on all Iranian oil.
02:09:08.000So, Iran is going to be able to now sell their oil without being sanctioned by the United States.
02:09:14.000Now, all the other primary and secondary sanctions remain in place, but they don't apply to Iran's oil because the U.S. wants that oil to hit the market.
02:09:24.000We don't care if Iran makes money off of it.
02:09:27.000We're going to let Iran make money off of their own oil because we need the supply to increase so the price can go down and stabilize.
02:09:35.000So, those are some of the big things that the United States is giving to Iran unfreezing the money.
02:09:41.000$300 billion reconstruction fund, waivers so they can sell their oil.
02:09:47.000And then Iran has agreed that over the next 60 days, they're going to sit down with technocratic experts, nuclear experts, and they're going to negotiate on their nuclear program.
02:09:59.000And what has been discussed on this, again, nothing has been agreed to.
02:10:03.000They're talking about a longer term permanent nuclear deal that will be passed by the UN Security Council.
02:10:12.000It will have Iran reaffirm its commitment to the nonproliferation treaty.
02:10:16.000In other words, they'll vow they won't pursue a nuclear weapon.
02:10:19.000And it looks like there's actually even more give from the United States.
02:10:24.000Trump has indicated that he's willing to allow Iran to dilute their stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
02:10:31.000You might remember previously, Trump was demanding that they forfeit it to the United States.
02:10:37.000They have 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which would not take further.
02:10:43.000A lot more further enrichment to make it weapons grade to make nuclear bombs with it.
02:10:48.000Previously, Trump was insisting that they give it to us and no other country.
02:10:53.000They had to give us all of it, and that's the only way we were going to let them handle this.
02:10:59.000Now, Trump is saying we will allow the IAEA to enter Iran and oversee the dilution of that.
02:11:06.000So, in other words, it goes from highly enriched to low enriched.
02:11:09.000And then, as far as the enrichment is concerned itself, Trump seems to be willing to allow Iran to continue to enrich uranium at a very low level, which is exactly the provisions of the original Iranian nuclear deal.
02:11:25.000They might allow Iran to enrich up to 1.5%, 3% for peaceful energy purposes, which they can use in their nuclear reactors for nuclear energy.
02:11:35.000And that's what Trump is talking about in the future.
02:11:38.000And then, depending upon whether Iran complies with those parts of the deal, then we're going to gradually take off primary and secondary sanctions that have been put on them.
02:11:55.000That's all contingent on these negotiations over the next 60 days.
02:11:59.000But there's no agreement on any of that.
02:12:01.000There's actually no concrete commitment on either side to any of that.
02:12:06.000So I don't even really consider that part of the deal because that's just, it really means nothing.
02:12:11.000So this is what has been said by Iran.
02:12:14.000Now, when these details came out yesterday and over the weekend, I was very skeptical.
02:12:19.000Because this has been the discussion for the past eight weeks, 10 weeks, ever since the middle of April.
02:12:27.000We have not been able to get a ceasefire.
02:12:29.000We've not been able to get an MOU or any kind of longer term truce because of these specific critical issues.
02:12:37.000And they are in particular the fate of Lebanon, whether Israel will stop bombing Lebanon is a huge problem, whether Iran is going to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
02:12:50.000Because again, there's all this talk about opening the Strait of Hormuz.
02:12:55.000What's in contention is under what conditions.
02:12:58.000Iran is willing to open up the Strait.
02:13:01.000But they want to own it and profit from it.
02:13:03.000The United States wants them to open up the strait and just let everybody go like it was before the war.
02:13:10.000So if Iran is claiming that they control the strait and they reserve the right to charge money, again, you have to question did the United States back off of its demands?
02:13:20.000And then the conditions under which the money will actually be dispersed, because this is also very central to the agreement.
02:13:29.000What Iran is looking for in general is they want sanctions relief and they want cash.
02:13:36.000Up front, they're saying we want reparations now.
02:13:39.000We need the money, and we're either going to get it from sanctions relief so we can start making money, or we want reparations paid to us in cash up front so we just have the capital.
02:13:52.000And they don't necessarily care under what form it is you know, whether it's a cash transfer from the Gulf or the United States, or it's unfrozen assets, or it's reparations, whatever you want to call it but they want the money up front, and then they're going to do what we want them to do.
02:14:09.000That is in general what Iran's position has been.
02:14:12.000The United States has always insisted you're not getting cash up front.
02:14:17.000You're not getting sanctions relief up front because those are the only means we have to ensure compliance.
02:14:24.000So rather, we would like to see sanctions relief cash conditioned upon their performance.
02:14:30.000In other words, if you hold up your end of the bargain, gradually we will give you money in some form.
02:15:14.000Iran is saying we get $12 billion up front.
02:15:19.000Iran is saying we control the Strait and we're going to charge a fee outside the 60 days.
02:15:25.000Now, the United States has disputed every single one of these things.
02:15:30.000The United States has said we are not giving Iran a cent until we actually see performance.
02:15:39.000And Vice President JD Vance did all the morning shows today and he said, No, Iran is not getting any money.
02:15:45.000He said, if they choose to comply with the agreement, then they can have a relationship with the United States where they can prosper.
02:15:54.000He said, but in other words, no, they're not getting any money unfrozen.
02:15:58.000No, they're not getting the $300 billion unless and until they open up the strait and they actively engage in nuclear negotiations.
02:16:08.000So they're disputing that monetary aspect.
02:16:10.000Trump administration also says, no, they're not charging a toll.
02:16:15.000The administration insists it's going to be freedom of navigation, meaning they don't need permission from the IRGC.
02:16:23.000They don't need to pay a fee to go through the strait, which, of course, Iran has said the opposite.
02:16:29.000And then the big one, the last one, is that the United States is saying Israel is not even part of this agreement.
02:16:37.000So they're not saying that there isn't a ceasefire in Lebanon.
02:16:42.000They're saying a ceasefire in Lebanon is just not even a condition of the agreement at all.
02:16:47.000They're saying we're agreeing to a ceasefire in the Persian Gulf.
02:16:51.000Lebanon and Israel is a separate issue.
02:16:54.000And they're saying this basically because they have to, because Israel refuses to be bound by the agreement.
02:17:01.000Ever since the agreement was announced, the prime minister of Israel, Netanyahu, has come out and he said, We are not bound by the agreement.
02:17:09.000We don't agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon.
02:17:12.000And as a matter of fact, we're going to keep going in Lebanon.
02:17:16.000So they're saying, Look, we're not a party to it.
02:18:00.000And right now, there are some major discrepancies.
02:18:03.000Now, once again, it has been said that the deal was signed yesterday.
02:18:08.000However, if the deal was signed, meaning that both sides reviewed the same text and signed, confirming they agreed to it, why then are there these discrepancies?
02:18:21.000Iran came out yesterday and they said the deal was one thing.
02:18:24.000And JD Vance and President Trump have both come out today and said the deal is something else.
02:18:31.000So, how do you account for these discrepancies?
02:18:34.000You have to wonder was it actually signed?
02:18:38.000Or are they going to really sign it on Friday?
02:18:42.000If they signed it, why is there all this confusion?
02:18:47.000Now, the administration is telling us one reason.
02:18:49.000The administration says Iran is lying.
02:18:53.000They say because Iran is misrepresenting the deal to try to appease their domestic constituency.
02:19:00.000In other words, the Iranian people want a very good deal.
02:19:05.000If the Iranians come across like they got a bad deal, maybe the people are going to revolt against the IRGC led government.
02:19:15.000So the Trump administration is saying the Iranian government has to lie and say they're getting a better deal than they really got to appease their population.
02:19:28.000And the reason that doesn't track is because what will happen is after Friday, we're going to know who's lying.
02:19:37.000You know, whether Iran is charging a toll or not, I mean, eventually we're going to see whether they're charging money.
02:19:43.000Whether Israel is bound by this agreement, again, we're going to see.
02:19:48.000If Israel keeps bombing Lebanon, then obviously they're not bound by the agreement.
02:19:53.000And if Iran adheres to it anyway, then they lied.
02:19:57.000But if that sabotages the agreement and Iran pulls out and closes the strait, then obviously it was us that was lying.
02:20:04.000So for the United States to say that Iran is just misrepresenting the details, they're lying about it.
02:20:10.000They just want to get their people on board.
02:20:12.000Well, you know, sooner or later, the people are going to realize what's really in the agreement.
02:20:17.000So, how efficacious would that really be?
02:20:20.000On the flip side, Iran is saying the same thing about us.
02:20:24.000You could equally say if the United States is going out and saying, like Vance on The Morning Show and Trump on True Social, if on our side we are saying we didn't give Iran any money and we're not going to let them charge a toll, could they not say the same thing about us?
02:20:42.000What if the Trump administration is lying about this to save face on our end?
02:20:48.000We're the ones that need a quick ceasefire.
02:21:02.000So, who's to say the United States isn't lying?
02:21:05.000Haven't we been the ones lying all along about everything, about all of it, about like literally every single issue and the state of negotiations and bluffing about annihilating their civilization?
02:21:21.000That after the 60 days expires, Iran is going to charge a toll on the Strait of Hormuz.
02:21:27.000And I would bet you that they're going to call it something other than a toll.
02:21:32.000And I would bet you that the United States is simply going to either lie that this is happening at all, because we've seen it happen, or they're going to say, well, it's not really a toll, it's actually a fee, it's something else, because this is what the Trump administration does.
02:21:47.000And we know that because they did it yesterday.
02:21:50.000Pete Hegseth went on the morning shows yesterday and they asked him, They said, so what's going on with the agreement?
02:21:57.000And Pete Hegseth said, well, we control the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz is open.
02:22:03.000And the interviewer said, so you got an agreement to open up the Strait, which is already open because we control it?
02:22:26.000And the government has been insisting that it is open.
02:22:29.000I mean, they've just simply been lying and in denial about this.
02:22:32.000So, if there are discrepancies and the discrepancies have emerged because one party of the agreement is lying to their own people to save face, I don't think it's Iran.
02:22:48.000But let's talk specifically about these discrepancies.
02:22:51.000I actually think that these don't matter too much.
02:22:55.000I think it is very likely that our side is lying.
02:22:58.000And I also don't think it matters at all.
02:23:01.000Probably the United States did allow money to be unfrozen and given to Iran.
02:23:06.000As a matter of fact, that has been reported by some sources that the United States authorized Qatar to unfreeze some money that then went to Iran before the MOU was even agreed to.
02:23:20.000And I believe that the United States would just simply lie about that.
02:23:24.000And I also think it's true that Iran is going to control the Strait because they effectively do anyway.
02:23:30.000And they're going to use that control to charge a toll or charge a fee at some point.
02:23:36.000And I don't believe the United States will re enter a conflict with Iran to prevent this from happening.
02:23:42.000And I think it's very plausible the United States will try to smooth that over again with this like semantic loophole and say, well, it's not really a toll.
02:23:51.000Actually, it's an insurance fee, it's an environmental fee.
02:23:55.000And I think they're perfectly willing to either lie that it's happening altogether or, again, they're going to find some loophole.
02:24:03.000To spin it, and they're going to say it's not a toll when really it is.
02:24:08.000Here is the biggest problem the biggest problem is going to be the conflict in Lebanon.
02:24:15.000That may be the biggest sticking point.
02:24:17.000And the reason I say this is because that was the original undoing of the ceasefire back in April.
02:24:24.000You might remember that when the actual hostilities between the United States and Iran effectively ended two and a half months ago at the beginning of April, that original ceasefire, the terms were that we would stop bombing Iran as long as Iran opened up the strait and then negotiated on their nuclear program.
02:24:44.000As a matter of fact, that original ceasefire agreement.
02:24:47.000In April, it is identical to this one because this is realistically the same thing.
02:24:53.000In April, Trump announced we're going to stop bombing Iran, they're going to open the Strait, and then over the next two weeks, we're going to talk about nukes.
02:25:06.000We're saying there's a ceasefire, Iran is going to open up the Strait, we're going to end our blockade, and then over the next 60 days, we're going to negotiate on the nuclear program.
02:25:17.000The only thing that has changed is we've actually given more.
02:25:21.000We've actually, in concrete terms, given financial commitments to put together this reconstruction fund, unfreeze this money.
02:25:29.000Potentially, we've already unfrozen some of the money and given them cash.
02:26:12.000And within hours, Iran and Pakistan, which brokered the agreement, said it's not just a ceasefire in the Persian Gulf, it's also a ceasefire in Lebanon as well.
02:26:24.000Where Israel has resumed their war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
02:26:29.000And Iran and Pakistan said that the agreement is, it's not even a question of, you know, discrepancies or lying to your own people.
02:26:38.000Iran and Pakistan, which brokered the deal, they both said, Washington agreed it's a ceasefire on all fronts.
02:27:11.000Iran and Pakistan insisted if you can't get Israel to stop attacking Lebanon, if you can't get a ceasefire on every front, then you're in violation of the deal.
02:27:22.000And if you're in violation, then we're not holding up our end and we're keeping the strait closed.
02:27:41.000It tells us that Iran, as well as Pakistan, the mediator, and Qatar take this very seriously.
02:27:47.000They are insistent, and they've been insistent, that Lebanon is a part of any agreement.
02:27:52.000Not only is it a part of it, but it's actually a precondition for an agreement.
02:27:57.000In order for Iran to open the strait, in order for Iran even to negotiate, in order for there to be a basis to negotiate with the United States and even make an agreement, Lebanon needs to be a part of it.
02:28:11.000And so if Lebanon is not a part of it, if the United States is telling us now, like they did in April, that Lebanon is outside the agreement, then there's no deal.
02:28:23.000And what's more, if Israel continues bombing Lebanon, then not only Is there not a deal, but we're in violation of the deal?
02:28:32.000And that means, again, not only do we not have an agreement and you don't have diplomacy, but Iran is not going to hold up their end.
02:28:40.000They're going to keep the strait closed.
02:28:43.000And so that's why this is emerging as maybe the central problem.
02:28:47.000And this is where this discrepancy thing is going to get ironed out very quickly because we will see on Friday and this weekend if Israel considers themselves bound by the agreement.
02:29:00.000Is Trump going to be able to get Netanyahu to play ball?
02:31:56.000Another scenario is Lebanon gets bombed and the agreement remains in effect.
02:32:01.000And then we realize Iran and Pakistan weren't serious and they were just maybe hoping to get something more, but they're not willing to jeopardize the ceasefire.
02:32:12.000Maybe your third option is that there's all this theater and Netanyahu has to beat his chest and perform as though he's defying Trump and he's performing for his own domestic political audience.
02:32:26.000But in the end, he's going to comply and he might reluctantly do it and he might huff and puff.
02:32:31.000And again, he might go through this posturing and signaling to his own people.
02:32:35.000But maybe in the end, there might be a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel and he will allow Trump to negotiate with Iran on nuclear.
02:32:44.000But those are really the three scenarios.
02:32:47.000Two scenarios are that Israel violates the deal and either it collapses or it's maintained or Israel abides by the deal and then we have no problems.
02:32:58.000But let's talk about a little further how we got to this MOU because I think this is really important.
02:33:04.000So, you might remember two, three weeks ago, it was said that we had an MOU back then, back on Memorial Day weekend, three weeks ago.
02:33:17.000The U.S. and Iran said, We have an agreement, we have an MOU, it's a done deal.
02:35:58.000And so it has been reported that in order to bribe Iran to stay in the negotiations, Trump unfroze money up front and offered to unilaterally end our blockade of the Strait first before they open the Strait on their end.
02:36:16.000In other words, Trump sweetened the deal.
02:36:19.000Trump came to Iran and said, All right, we'll give you some cash.
02:36:25.000Okay, we'll end our blockade of the Strait first, and then you can open it later after we're done.
02:36:33.000And it has been reported that only because of those two concessions did Iran remain in the negotiations and actually sign on to the MOU.
02:36:44.000So, what does this say about this upcoming week?
02:36:48.000It says that Israel really has the ability to derail diplomacy because if the original ceasefire fell apart, because There was not a ceasefire on all fronts.
02:37:00.000In other words, if Iran and Pakistan saw that as a precondition to open the strait, we have reason to believe they feel the same way now as they did back then.
02:37:11.000If they closed the strait in April because Israel started bombing Lebanon again, who's to say they won't do it again this week?
02:37:19.000And same thing if Iran was going to pull out of negotiations yesterday because Israel was bombing Lebanon, who's to say that if Israel starts bombing Lebanon again next week?
02:37:33.000Then Iran doesn't pull out of the deal and reclose the Strait of Hormuz.
02:37:38.000So, this just goes to show the centrality of Lebanon in these negotiations.
02:37:45.000And what I think is that ultimately, Iran does not need a deal.
02:38:27.000And that's why, by the way, we're giving all these concessions.
02:38:31.000We're getting nothing, we're giving everything, we're giving waivers for Iran to sell their oil without.
02:38:39.000The sanctions that have been imposed because we need the supply to get back to normal.
02:38:43.000We're bribing them and paying them to open up the strait, unilaterally ending our blockade because we need the supply to go back to normal.
02:38:52.000So it is imperative for the United States to get a short term agreement so we can get that immediate economic relief.
02:40:18.000Is they want to impose a very high cost on any future hostilities, any transgression against Iran's sovereignty or their airspace, any attacks on Iran, in other words, have to be considered as an all out war.
02:40:34.000And an all out war has to come at a very high cost, such that the U.S. and Israel are not going to even attempt anything in the future.
02:40:43.000Iran has to make it clear that if Israel and the United States launch any kind of attack, anything resembling hostilities, it's an all out war.
02:42:12.000What they are fighting for is to make sure that the U.S. and Israel are deterred from ever considering meddling in Iran's affairs in the future.
02:42:22.000They want the U.S. to leave the Middle East.
02:42:26.000They want the U.S., Israel, and the Gulf countries never to consider.
02:42:30.000A revolution in Iran through the intelligence agencies, never to consider another decapitation strike, never consider airstrikes on Iran's nuclear complex.
02:42:41.000They want to make it clear that Iran's airspace, its territory, war is off limits, it's too costly.
02:42:48.000So once we understand this, you realize it is the United States which needs a deal.
02:43:23.000And nukes are why the United States ever got involved in the first place.
02:43:29.000It is October 7th, which became Israel's pretext that they rolled into a conflict.
02:43:35.000In Gaza, in Lebanon, in Yemen, in Iraq, in Syria, ultimately in Iran.
02:43:40.000This is why we are where we are in the first place.
02:43:45.000Once you understand Israel's central role, you realize that Iran will never truly be safe.
02:43:52.000They will never deter U.S. and Israeli aggression until they isolate Israel from the U.S. and the Gulf countries.
02:44:02.000And so you wonder maybe this is the strategy.
02:44:06.000If Iran conditions a short term ceasefire, On a ceasefire in Lebanon, then what this does is it puts Trump in a position where he has to force Israel to do something against their interest, which Israel's never gonna do.
02:44:24.000And if Israel disobeys and defies the United States, it means that it is no longer Iran, which is inflicting the economic pain on the United States.
02:44:36.000We are being hurt because of these high oil prices.
02:44:40.000If the war starts up again because the peace process unravels, It is us that has to spend the money to keep the carrier strike groups in the Arabian Sea.
02:44:50.000It's us that has to make the Patriot missile batteries and the THAAD systems.
02:44:57.000It's us that is diverted from our other agenda in the Pacific, in the Caribbean, in Europe.
02:45:04.000And pretty soon we're going to stop blaming Iran because Iran wants to make a deal and we're going to start blaming our closest ally because we're saying, look, we're fighting your war.
02:45:16.000We're fighting the Gulf countries' war at a very steep political, economic, and military cost.
02:45:35.000Are you now telling us you won't let us extricate ourselves from this detrimental war that we're fighting on your behalf because you insist on fighting the separate war?
02:45:49.000On your own terms, pretty soon it puts Israel and the United States at odds because it puts our self interest in contradiction with theirs.
02:46:01.000We need to get out, but the only way to get out is for Israel to stop the war in Lebanon.
02:46:06.000But they need to fight their war in Lebanon and against Iran at any cost.
02:46:11.000So now it creates enmity between Israel and the United States, and in particular between Netanyahu and Trump.
02:46:18.000And you can see this playing out in real time.
02:46:21.000Where this previously rock solid relationship, where Netanyahu visits the White House seven times in one year, and we're authorizing a new MOU on Israeli foreign aid, and we have this National Defense Authorization Act provision where we're bringing our intelligence and military operations together under one roof.
02:46:41.000Now, all of a sudden, Trump and Netanyahu are fighting in public in the press every day.
02:46:47.000You almost wonder if the goal of making Lebanon the poison pill in the agreement.
02:46:54.000It is to create animosity between the US and Israel.
02:46:58.000And I would say between Israel then and the Gulf countries.
02:47:02.000Because let's say, let's entertain the scenario where Friday arrives, you have your big signing ceremony with all the pomp and circumstance, and it's a big deal, and the strait is open, and the blockade ends, and we enter negotiations with Iran.
02:47:20.000Let's say that Israel engages in Lebanon, and they almost have to.
02:47:25.000Because Israel will say, we are not bound by outside agreements that we're not a party to.
02:47:31.000Moreover, we reserve the right to defend ourselves.
02:48:09.000Well, then it's effectively Israel's fault that we don't have diplomacy.
02:48:14.000Now, it's not to say that we never get an agreement out of Iran, but it does mean that once again the deal falls apart and maybe it's another two weeks, maybe it's another month, maybe it's another 60 days.
02:48:27.000However much longer it goes on and whatever it costs us, the responsibility of that falls on the shoulders of Netanyahu and Israel, just like it did in April.
02:48:40.000And so I'm almost starting to suspect, and I said it even back then is this a poison pill by the Iranians?
02:48:47.000Because they know Israel will never stop in Lebanon.
02:48:51.000And so if they make that, if they make Israel stopping a precondition to an agreement, they've effectively foreclosed on the possibility there'll ever be a ceasefire.
02:49:02.000But when you realize that they don't need one as bad as we do, then you realize maybe that's by design.
02:49:08.000Maybe they're intentionally sabotaging the agreement.
02:49:12.000So that Israel is scapegoated and isolated from the United States.
02:49:17.000And if that happens, if you have a contentious relationship between the U.S. and Israel, that may be the ultimate guarantor of Iran's long term security.
02:49:28.000Because, again, as we've said over and over and over again throughout the conflict, the United States actually does not have some great strategic imperative in toppling the Iranian government.
02:49:39.000As a matter of fact, it's the opposite.
02:49:42.000What we want is stability in the Middle East.
02:51:39.000Everything that I'm saying right now is speculative.
02:51:42.000What is so difficult about analyzing the situation is we really have no idea who is telling the truth here because there are discrepancies between all three sides.
02:51:53.000There are discrepancies within this deal, and one side is lying.
02:51:58.000Iran is saying certain things that are mutually exclusive with what we are saying.
02:52:02.000We are saying they're not going to control the Strait.
02:52:36.000Or is that in itself a form of signaling and posturing?
02:52:40.000Do Trump and Netanyahu really have a difference of opinion?
02:52:44.000Or is this a good cop, bad cop routine?
02:52:47.000Is it that Israel is attacking Iran as an extension of us and then we don't get blamed for it because we say that we're estranged from them?
02:53:00.000Well, if Israel attacks Iran, hey, you know, we had nothing to do with that.
02:53:09.000Calling up Netanyahu and mad on the phone?
02:53:11.000Or is that something they're planting in the press to convey to the Iranians so that we can be the good cop and Israel can be the wild card bulldog, attack dog that we might let off the leash that Iran has to worry about?
02:53:28.000So you don't even know what the relationship is between Israel and the United States because just like Iran has to pander to its population and just like Trump is looking to save face.
02:53:39.000Netanyahu, too, is facing elections in October, and he needs to project strength as well.
02:53:45.000He needs to equally keep Trump happy, but he also has to project strength within the Knesset and within Israel that he's doing a good job fighting Hezbollah, fighting Iran, that all these years of war and getting Israel to be isolated were worth it, that he's actually achieving anything meaningful strategically in the region.
02:54:07.000So that's what makes it very difficult to say because there's just so many variables.
02:54:11.000You just don't really know who is telling the truth.
02:54:14.000And so that's why it's going to be very interesting to see this weekend.
02:54:17.000You're going to have the signing ceremony.
02:54:47.000We don't even know when that's going to happen.
02:54:49.000Two, do we even make it to the signing ceremony?
02:54:52.000If already there are these discrepancies between Washington and Tehran, and Netanyahu is publicly saying, I'm going to violate the deal, do we even get to Friday?
02:55:05.000Let's say we get to Friday, we see the text of the deal, it will be very interesting to see what's in it.
02:55:11.000Then it's a question whether Israel will be constrained by it.
02:55:15.000And if they violate the deal, if they go against the ceasefire that has been imposed on them by the agreement, what happens then?
02:55:33.000These are the questions we have to ask.
02:55:35.000It's going to be a very interesting week.
02:55:37.000So we'll be looking tomorrow and Wednesday if we see the agreement.
02:55:40.000Friday, we'll be looking to see if they sign it.
02:55:43.000All throughout the week, we'll be watching Lebanon very closely and seeing if they're going to get hit by Israel.
02:55:50.000Now, on the ceasefire in Lebanon, what are we looking for?
02:55:54.000So, right now, Israel has resumed their bombing of Lebanon.
02:55:58.000Realistically, they've been bombing Lebanon for like two and a half years uninterrupted.
02:56:03.000Nominally, there's been a ceasefire since roughly November of 2024, but Israel has violated that ceasefire thousands of times, basically every single day since that happened.
02:56:16.000And then once the war with Iran started, they just escalated.
02:56:20.000And they've once again been carrying out large scale operations in southern Lebanon mostly.
02:56:26.000They've invaded on the ground and they're carrying out an air campaign.
02:56:31.000Now, Israel has already said they're not withdrawing on the ground.
02:56:39.000If there is a ceasefire in Lebanon, does that mean Israel has to withdraw or does it simply mean they have to stop bombing?
02:56:47.000Because almost certainly they're not going to withdraw.
02:56:50.000So if they're not withdrawing and that is the expectation of Iran and Pakistan, then you don't have a ceasefire and you don't have a deal.
02:56:57.000Because Israel's defense minister already said, we're not leaving.
02:57:02.000So does a ceasefire mean that Israel merely stops bombing Lebanon?
02:57:07.000And again, I don't think that's likely either.
02:57:09.000But certainly, it's more likely than a withdrawal.
02:57:13.000And if that's what they mean, then maybe there's a period of time where Netanyahu refrains from bombing while reserving the right to be able to bomb and insisting he's not bound by the deal.
02:58:20.000Like I said at the very beginning, however, any way that you cut it, we lost.
02:58:26.000Any way that you cut it, whether it's the worst version of it that Iran has said to their state broadcaster, or it's the best version of it that we are talking about it on TV, we have lost the war.
02:58:39.000We are paying them to open up the strait, which was already opened, but which they now have gained in the war in exchange for us not bombing them any longer.
02:58:51.000I don't know what else you call that other than a surrender on Iran's terms.
02:58:56.000And even if you have this agreement in place, then we're right back where we started last year, which is negotiating over Iran's nuclear program, where the only indication of any change in any position is that we are giving way more concessions to Iran after we fought the war.
02:59:16.000And maybe we'll talk more on that on Friday or on Monday, depending on the outcome of what happens at the signing ceremony.
02:59:23.000Even as far as those negotiations are concerned, it's already not looking good.
02:59:27.000Looks like we're giving up everything.
03:01:19.000Because, I mean, look, anybody can get a following saying anything because people are idiots.
03:01:25.000So there's no shortage of total ignoramuses that are going to no kings' protests and.
03:01:34.000Climate protests and the women's march and anti ice protests.
03:01:39.000So you could really get a following of idiots saying anything.
03:01:43.000It's scary that somebody as influential as her is saying things that are that crazy, talking about remote viewing and time travel and giants and aliens and the, what did she say?
03:01:56.000The Bolsheviks became the Zionists and they're all Frankists.
03:08:09.000What video do you think best identifies, slash, articulate, slash, encapsulates the highest form of your consciousness, slash, perspective?
03:11:06.000He is one of these like dark woke, I think, liberals.
03:11:11.000It's very clear if you watch any of his interviews, any of his comedy, he is like a liberal chud who's just a little bit more politically incorrect.
03:12:00.000Assuming Gryopers and AF voters follow your lead and vote blue in 26, will exit polls and election data further legitimize the AF voting block or is polling data fake and gay, controlled by our enemies?
03:15:51.000Like, if I can't have a nice house and a car, and if it's not better than most other people, if I can't be in the top 10%, what's even the point?
03:16:02.000People say, well, God will dwell there.
03:20:09.000And yes, there will be bread and there will be a new Colosseum.
03:20:12.000And there will be fights and there will be circuses and there will be blood spilled for the Emperor and for our entertainment in the Imperial capital.
03:22:49.000That's one of the good things we spend money on.
03:22:52.000Things that the government should spend money on stealth bombers, aircraft carriers, missiles, drones, destroyers, tanks, guns, lasers, bullets.
03:27:20.000I hope that Clavicular is writing down the names of everybody that snaked him because when the swelling goes down from that nose job, you're all going to look like the idiots.
03:35:01.000That's really honestly not to be corny or whatever, but for me, so much of the show is just about preserving that.
03:35:13.000I had such an idyllic childhood made complicated by the fact that I'm like, I have a lot of problems and everything, but like, I grew up in a small town.
03:37:00.000It's like on the one side, you have all this freaky stuff where everybody's on drugs, everybody's going crazy.
03:37:07.000Everybody's on drugs, everybody's divorced, everybody's in a situation.
03:37:12.000Everybody's got all this fucking weird freak show stuff going on criminals and people on welfare and just total weirdo stuff.
03:37:22.000Everybody's buying Funko Pops and action figures.
03:37:25.000And then on the other side, everything is foreign.
03:37:28.000You have these people here from Turkmenistan, people here from Kyrgyzstan, people here from India, from Guatemala, and you're just like, I'm normal.
03:37:39.000I'm a normal American ethnic from the suburbs.
03:54:33.000The only time I get a boner in a weird place, can anybody relate to this?
03:54:38.000I know there's probably too much information, but do you ever experience this when you're like half asleep?
03:54:46.000That's the only time it happens to me.
03:54:50.000When you're in like the twilight state between like waking and sleeping, it's like if I'm on like a plane and I'm like half asleep, you're like, you're kind of in and out.
03:55:18.000It's like a very unique state where you're like, you're literally like, you could just fully send it and fall asleep, or you could wake up.
03:55:27.000It's like when you're right in the middle like that.
04:01:53.000Diversity Stole My Bike, Winter Groyper, Radagon, Mark, Chevrolet Groyper, Switzerland Groyper, Naperville Groyper, Catherine, Pirate Captain Barbosa, Legal Eagle Groyper, Hunter Biden's Aura, Dan Kazarian, Dealer, Lawrence of Dearborn, Glory Be to God, Mary Jane, and Douglas Kappa.