00:09:23.000But we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means for expanding our sphere of influence.
00:09:40.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
00:09:55.000An overflowing of love, an overflowing of self-giving love, so much of it it cannot be contained.
00:10:08.000An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children.
00:10:15.000even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
00:10:59.000Read as many books as you can, learn a language, learn an instrument, get the best grades you can, get into a good school, and just don't mess around.
00:11:07.000You turn like 18, 20, and then it just goes at light speed.
00:11:12.000And if you are wasting time, years will go by.
00:11:16.000And you will wake up when you're 25 years old and say, I thought I would have accomplished more by now.
00:11:21.000Why am I still stuck in the same place?
00:11:24.000Let time be your ally by working every single day at what you think you want to be doing in 20 years.
00:11:39.000The servant who received five talents invested it and earned five more.
00:11:44.000The one who received two talents also invested wisely and earned two more.
00:11:49.000But the servant who received one talent went and dug a hole in the ground and hid his master's money.
00:11:57.000When the master returned, the servant with five talents said, Master, you gave me five and look, I've gained five more.
00:12:05.000The master replied, Well done, good and faithful servant.
00:12:09.000Because you have been faithful with little, I will put you in charge of much.
00:12:14.000The servant with two talents said, Master, you gave me two, and look, I've gained two more.
00:12:21.000The master said the same, Well done, good and faithful servant.
00:12:25.000You have been faithful with little, I will trust you with much.
00:12:31.000But the servant with one talent said, Master, I was afraid, so I hid your money in the ground.
00:13:22.000Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
00:13:26.000If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
00:13:34.000People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
00:13:43.000Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
00:13:46.000But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
00:14:26.000After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
00:15:24.000When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
00:37:19.000Remember when I grabbed my shit, I said, no buys, I'm dippin.
00:37:23.000Remember when I said I changed, I'm new, I'm here, I listen.
00:37:27.000I know all this shit's so mean, but I'm really tryna fix it, fix it.
00:37:30.000You can go side to side, I just white shot, I assume you're lookin' at me You can go low with a high, it's tough for a treat that nobody else can see I could be mean tonight, but that's not what I'm tryna be I could be mean tonight, No, I'm tryna be nice.
00:37:46.000I'm trying to be nice, I'm trying to be
00:42:40.000If they brought him back to the colony, he would immediately head right back for the mountains.
00:42:46.000A year and a half ago, people said, I just can't even imagine Trump bringing us to war in Iran for regime change.
00:44:06.000I can't see the time but I'm having the time of my life Chris Poe, the game on the line I'm dropping the dime on him He pours it between Tony Boy USA and B.O. Ditch and that's why it's filled with gripe I'm trying to change for the better, it's dropping me fucking insane Hey, he on the bed, I wanna cover, we not on the same pace I be from the bed, she gripping them covers like she on her last leg She look like she belong on a cover, this whole game covered in everything I'm gonna vibe about take a banana but she is not getting ready,
00:44:34.000rain If he wants to interview Nick Fuetta The word out.
00:49:26.000They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
00:49:33.000If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
00:49:51.000Palantir comes in and interprets the data using.
00:49:54.000Algorithm using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
00:57:52.000The United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
00:57:58.000To consign the American empire to destruction while they look forward to a golden age, while they look forward to a century of empire and domination.
00:58:08.000Maybe we can't stop it, but I'm not going along with it.
00:58:46.000When Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel, which started the Yom Kippur War on October 6th, 1973, almost 50 years exactly before October 7th, Israel was almost overrun.
00:58:59.000And the United States was reluctant to provide them with the military support that they needed to defend themselves.
00:59:05.000So, the prime minister of Israel, Golda Meir, called up Nixon and said, If you don't help us, we will nuke Syria and Egypt.
00:59:48.000We're like the SWAT team of Free Thought, and I go on with this battle ram at the door, and then they come in with these laser beams and have that information.
01:00:13.000Groyper Dating Act, 2, KF Legal Bean to represent Groyper's who are fired from work or kicked out of school for being a Groyper.
01:15:03.000So it's totally fair for us to recognize that the countries around Russia, you know, we shouldn't be invading or torturing them or oppressing them, of course.
01:15:12.000And big picture, holy smokes, you do not want the two largest powers in the world, apart from the United States, to get together and align against us.
01:15:21.000Why do you support Israel against Hamas, for example?
01:15:24.000Why do you support America giving them billions of dollars?
01:43:35.000the September attacks, there were countless rumors about strange coincidences surrounding the events.
01:43:41.000report about a group of Middle Eastern men spotted the morning of September 11th parked just across the river from New York City has not gone away.
01:59:10.000That America was different because we are different.
01:59:32.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
01:59:45.000An overflowing of love, an overflowing of self-giving love, so much of it cannot be contained, an unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children, even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
02:00:15.000That is what makes us different, that is what makes us good.
02:00:29.000on this keto knife ever since i got on the acceptable ever since i got on a carnivore knife Any final words to young men?
02:00:52.000Read as many books as you can, learn a language, learn an instrument, get the best grades you can, get into a good school, and just don't mess around.
02:01:00.000You turn like 18, 20, and then it just goes at light speed.
02:01:04.000And if you are wasting time, years will go by.
02:01:08.000And you will wake up when you're 25 years old and say, I thought I would have accomplished more by now.
02:01:13.000Why am I still stuck in the same place?
02:01:17.000Let time be your ally by working every single day at what you think you want to be doing in 20 years.
02:01:31.000The servant who received five talents invested it and earned five more.
02:01:36.000The one who received two talents also invested wisely and earned two more.
02:01:42.000But the servant who received one talent went and dug a hole in the ground and hid his master's money.
02:01:49.000When the master returned, the servant with five talents said, Master, you gave me five and look, I've gained five more.
02:01:58.000The master replied, Well done, good and faithful servant.
02:02:01.000Because you have been faithful with little, I will put you in charge of much.
02:02:07.000The servant with two talents said, Master, you gave me two, and look, I've gained two more.
02:02:13.000The master said the same, Well done, good and faithful servant.
02:02:18.000You have been faithful with little, I will trust you with much.
02:02:23.000But the servant with one talent said, Master, I was afraid, so I hid your money in the ground.
02:04:40.000We are once again talking about the war in Iran.
02:04:43.000It's been a minute, it's been a little while since we talked about the conflict, and it looks like it's starting up all over again.
02:04:51.000Our featured story tonight is about the U.S. strikes on Iran, which happened today.
02:04:57.000It's another round of retaliatory strikes after Iran targeted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
02:05:04.000And this is basically a repeat of what happened last week.
02:05:10.000Last week, you might remember, Iran was attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
02:05:15.000And the reason they're doing this is because the U.S., in collaboration with the country of Oman, have opened up a second route through the Strait of Hormuz on the coast of Oman.
02:05:28.000And the reason they did this is because Iran is demanding that all shipping that goes through the strait on the north side, on their side of the strait, has to get permission from the IRGC and potentially in the future have to pay some kind of a toll or a fee.
02:05:45.000So the US and Oman have worked it out that there's going to be a second route hugging Oman's coast on the southern side of the strait, letting the ships go not just for free, but also without permission from Iran.
02:06:00.000Their goal in all of this is to take control of the strait formally so they can make money, but also so that they have the right, which they will reserve, to close the strait in a future conflict.
02:06:14.000This route opened up, lots of ships were using it and going through on the Omani side, and Iran was harassing that shipping with drones and missiles, attacking those commercial vessels.
02:06:26.000The U.S. retaliated by bombing Iran's southern coast.
02:06:29.000The exact same thing is playing out in the past 24 hours.
02:06:33.000Last night, I think shortly after the show, Iran attacked three ships on that Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, hit three of the ships.
02:06:43.000Some of the drones were shot down by the United States.
02:06:47.000And now the U.S. has retaliated by bombing Iran, but it's not like the other time.
02:06:53.000It's actually, I'm not being sarcastic.
02:06:55.000It's not like every other time that this has happened, which is repeatedly in the past five or six weeks.
02:07:01.000This time, the United States has bombed Iran, I believe it's 80 times.
02:07:07.000They attacked 80 different targets, 20 targets on the islands and on the coast, and 60 Iranian vessels in the strait.
02:07:16.000Not only that, but the United States has officially revoked their sanctions waiver for Iranian oil.
02:07:22.000So, part of the MOU, part of the big ceasefire agreement, is that we would no longer put sanctions on Iran's oil as they sell it mostly to China, but also to other countries.
02:07:33.000We have now formally revoked the waiver.
02:07:36.000In response to this, Iran is now attacking our bases in the Gulf.
02:08:21.000And all of the diplomacy, the meetings, the bombings, everything that has taken place basically since the start of the war has not changed this fundamental impasse, which is that we killed their supreme leader.
02:09:24.000We'll talk about the latest and where this is going to go.
02:09:27.000We're also going to talk tonight about the sale of F 35 fighter jets to Turkey.
02:09:31.000This has been discussed a lot in recent weeks, and I know a lot of us are excited about it.
02:09:37.000And the reason being is because ever since October 7th, it looks like Israel and Turkey are headed toward a conflict.
02:09:45.000Israel and Turkey have both openly talked about going to war with each other.
02:09:49.000Israel has said that Turkey is the new Iran, and that once Iran is finished, there's going to be some kind of strategic confrontation with Turkey.
02:09:58.000And that will involve Greece, Cyprus, other countries.
02:10:03.000Turkey, it seems, aims to encircle Israel.
02:10:10.000And it appears that in response to Israel's reluctance to end their war in Lebanon, the Trump administration is trying to effectively hurt Israel by offering to sell our most sophisticated fighter jets to Turkey, which is a variant of our F 35s.
02:10:27.000Previously, the United States was unwilling to do this.
02:10:30.000Because Turkey also has Russian air defense systems.
02:10:34.000And we'll talk about why that's a problem.
02:10:36.000It's a major strategic issue for the United States to do this.
02:10:40.000And so the development today is that Trump is in Turkey right now for a NATO summit.
02:10:46.000And there's been a lot of talk about selling these F 35s, making a deal, giving them a symbolic gift of five F 35 fighter jets.
02:10:56.000It was expected that Trump would announce that we would officially deliver those jets, but he declined to do so.
02:11:04.000Trump took the stage and said it's something we're looking at and thinking about, but it's not something he was willing to commit to.
02:11:13.000We'll talk about the latest development.
02:11:16.000And we're also going to get into some of the background why this is so controversial and some of the geopolitical implications and where that's going to go as well.
02:11:26.000Because I think everybody recognizes that's going to be the next stop in Israel's tour, destroying all their rivals and neighbors in the Middle East.
02:11:34.000So we'll talk a little bit about that as well.
02:12:45.000Every episode of the show, every commentary stream, gaming stream, collaboration, it's all up there.
02:12:51.000For $100 a month, you get access to the group chat with me.
02:12:55.000And I'm in the group chat hanging out, dropping bonus content, chatting it up, and generally just chilling and hanging out with the Groypers.
02:13:07.000It's been pretty fun lately, I have to say.
02:13:48.000I used to play Fortnite with this Mormon guy, and we would squat up all the time, and he was pretty good, and he would say, The key is to have an all good mentality.
02:13:58.000No matter what happens, you got to just say, it's all good.
02:15:46.000All you need is a ball in an open field.
02:15:49.000Even in this, white race is absolutely dominant.
02:15:54.000And the big match was on today Egypt versus Argentina, one of two remaining brown clown states, one out of two remaining brown clown states.
02:16:05.000Mud slime nations going up against the goat, going up against the lion, I should say, Lionel Messi of Italian and Spanish descent.
02:16:15.000They thought they had it 70, 80 minutes in.
02:29:04.000We just need to go for that middle road between the Zionists on the right and the third worldists on the left.
02:29:14.000That's the move, because that's really the problem is that when Trump got elected in 24, the Zionists on the right were the real problem.
02:29:25.000They were pushing this version of American nationalism that was inextricably tied up with Zionism and the influence of the Likud party and Netanyahu and AIPAC.
02:29:36.000And I feel like that has been sufficiently weakened.
02:29:39.000We're still pushing against that, but obviously those binds have been dissolved a little bit.
02:29:46.000And now we have a problem on the left, which is this anti Israel but third worldist communist thing is in its ascendancy through Zorhan Mamdani, through the DSA, through people like Hassan Piker.
02:29:58.000Now we need to take the fight to them and remind everybody we're not some brown clowns.
02:30:03.000We're not about to abolish ICE and get rid of the prisons and bring on the third worlders just because we're against Israel.
02:30:22.000The problem is that for two years, whenever you would hear this crusader rhetoric, a lot of the white nationalist crusader rhetoric was a front for a pro Israel agenda, let's be honest, because it was about supporting Trump and Vance.
02:30:37.000It was about getting people to vote for the GOP, ultimately, to support a war with Iran.
02:30:42.000Many of these national populist types.
02:30:44.000We're saying that attacking Iran is being like the Roman Empire.
02:32:18.000You ready for another show about Iran?
02:32:21.000It's been a minute since we covered the war.
02:32:24.000And the big development today is that it looks like this memorandum of understanding, which is barely a month old, has officially fallen apart.
02:32:43.000And the development over the last 24 hours is that Iran has once again resumed its attacks on shipping on the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz.
02:32:52.000Yesterday, Iran launched drones and missiles impacting three shipping containers, or I should say, three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
02:33:03.000All of today and tonight, the United States has been retaliating against Iran, bombing their islands, bombing their southern coast, bombing IRGC vessels in the Persian Gulf.
02:33:15.000And as the United States is carrying out this attack, now Iran is retaliating against the United States, bombing our bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
02:33:25.000The United States has also removed the sanctions waivers, revoked them.
02:33:31.000And so now Iranian oil will once again be subject to the U.S. sanctions regime and will not be allowed to be officially sold on the open market.
02:33:40.000And this is a story from the Wall Street Journal about the events of the past 24 hours.
02:33:46.000And we'll talk a little bit more about it.
02:33:48.000It says The Trump administration pounded sites along Iran's coast in fresh airstrikes and blocked its ability to sell oil legally on Tuesday.
02:33:58.000In response to Tehran's recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, the strikes on Tuesday were four to five times more extensive than other attacks launched since the agreement to end the war, which was signed last month.
02:34:10.000The U.S. still considers the ceasefire in effect.
02:34:13.000The strikes targeted air defense, coastal surveillance, surface to air, and anti ship cruise missile sites, as well as drone launch sites and port facilities.
02:34:22.000The attacks came shortly after the Trump administration revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil on the open market.
02:34:29.000The Treasury Department said the June 21st temporary license granted to Iran after several months of war would no longer apply, but the Treasury Department allowed for a grace period until July 17th for transactions already authorized under the license.
02:34:45.000Iran's foreign ministry criticized the move and said in a statement that the revocation of the waivers was a violation of the Memorandum of Understanding.
02:34:53.000The U.S. has continued to coordinate with commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz using a route that it cleared near the coast of Oman.
02:35:01.000Over the weekend, the IRGC warned ships that it was prepared to target them if they use the route promoted by the U.S. and Oman.
02:35:08.000Early Tuesday, Iran fired anti ship cruise missiles and one way attack drones at vessels seeking to cross the southern route.
02:35:18.000Iran's attacks come just as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering.
02:35:22.000Daily traffic through the checkpoint has stabilized at between 30 to 60 crossings in recent days.
02:35:28.000So let's get into the background a little bit.
02:35:33.000If we are to reframe the conflict in Iran, I think it's becoming increasingly clear that the nature of the U.S. war with Iran has fundamentally changed.
02:35:46.000And it changed the moment that we killed the Ayatollah.
02:35:51.000And the way that it has changed is in terms of the fundamental American strategic objective.
02:35:59.000We started hostilities with Iran last year in June.
02:36:03.000When we bombed Iran's nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer.
02:36:08.000And so you could say that the initial goals of U.S. hostilities against Iran were primarily about shutting down Iran's enrichment capability and destroying Iran's nuclear stockpile.
02:36:21.000When we went to war again this year on February 27th, we killed the Ayatollah, we bombed them 15,000 times, and ostensibly the objective in this conflict was regime change.
02:36:37.000We killed the supreme leader, decimated the military and civilian leadership, and we attacked not only political regime targets, but also military targets across the country.
02:36:50.000What was the purpose of the regime change?
02:36:53.000Fundamentally, the reason we sought regime change is because Iran would not agree to our ultimatum to give up their nuclear centrifuges.
02:37:05.000So, realistically, the regime change was also about Iran's nuclear program.
02:37:10.000Last year, we sought to arrest the development of their nuclear program by bombing it, making it inaccessible, destroying the infrastructure, and setting it back.
02:37:21.000Because we could not convince them through negotiations to abandon their ambitions for a nuclear weapon or a nuclear threshold state, we sought a regime change.
02:37:32.000Because if they had a different regime, then that new regime would not be pursuing a nuclear arsenal.
02:37:39.000But the second that we attacked the regime and we sought its ouster, hoping that the people of Iran would rise up and failed in doing this, suddenly the war became about something else.
02:37:53.000Because the moment that we failed at pushing the regime out, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
02:38:00.000This is something that the United States civilian leadership did not anticipate.
02:38:05.000The military leadership, the Pentagon, knew they were going to close the Strait, and they were warning us in the press.
02:38:11.000If you go back and read the press in February of this year, in the weeks leading up to the conflict, there were planted stories in Politico, in the Washington Post, coming from the Pentagon that said regime change will fail, they'll close the Strait.
02:38:26.000And what we've learned since is that it was the president and some of his advisors who were not confident that Iran would be willing or able to do this or sustain the closure of the strait.
02:38:39.000So we failed at regime change, and what Iran immediately did is close the strait.
02:38:45.000Now, what this means is that everything since then has fundamentally now become about opening up the Strait of Hormuz.
02:38:56.000We're going after their nukes last year.
02:38:58.000This year, we're going after regime chains to get them to abandon their nuclear ambitions or aspirations.
02:39:05.000But then, because we went for the regime, they closed the strait.
02:39:09.000Everything since then has now been about opening up the Strait of Hormuz.
02:39:14.000We now recognize and realize we're not going to topple the regime.
02:39:19.000The regime is entrenched, it's dug in, they're not going to negotiate.
02:39:24.000We recognize now we really can't militarily defeat them without some kind of ground force.
02:39:30.000The airstrikes, the naval strikes, it's not enough.
02:39:35.000That really doesn't matter from a strategic point of view.
02:39:38.000We've bombed them and thrown everything at them, has not meaningfully suppressed or destroyed their missile and drone capability.
02:39:46.000So, what is the primary objective now?
02:39:48.000Well, now, since the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, economically, we're bleeding.
02:39:54.000In order to keep energy prices stable, we've had to open up our strategic petroleum reserve, as everybody knows.
02:40:00.000And not only that, but we've coordinated with the International Energy Agency to open up all these strategic reserves in all the different countries in the world.
02:40:08.000Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil have been opened up in other oil reserves in other countries.
02:40:16.000And this has only just bought us time.
02:40:18.000But we recognize that when those reserves run out and when those last shipments from the Strait arrive at their ports, which they already have at their destination, then the clock is going to start ticking for a total economic meltdown.
02:40:33.000For when there's legitimate energy scarcity.
02:40:35.000And when I say energy scarcity, I don't mean gas prices are high.
02:41:36.000And so, this has been the fundamental issue ever since basically February 28th how do we now get the Strait of Hormuz open and end the war?
02:41:44.000Okay, we're not getting regime change.
02:41:46.000We're not going to destroy their nukes or their stockpile of uranium.
02:41:50.000We're not going to suppress their drones and missiles.
02:41:52.000How do we now just get them to agree to open up the straits so we can wrap it up?
02:41:58.000Iran has us by the balls and they know it.
02:42:01.000And everything that has taken place since February 28th has been an effort, militarily or through negotiations, to try to get Iran to let us leave the conflict.
02:42:13.000A lot of people think it's up to us to just walk away.
02:42:16.000People say, why doesn't Trump just end the war?
02:42:31.000And so it's a question of whether Iran will let us.
02:42:34.000Iran could end the conflict tomorrow if they simply open up the strait to traffic with freedom of navigation, which was a status quo before the war.
02:42:48.000Because they want to take control over the Strait.
02:42:51.000And the reason being is because that capability will just be another tool in their arsenal to deter us from attacking them again.
02:43:01.000In the past, the United States was wary about attacking Iran because we were worried that Hezbollah would attack Israel.
02:43:08.000Iran would use its ballistic missiles to target Israel and American bases and our Arab allies.
02:43:13.000They might create a weapon, they might weaponize their nuclear program.
02:43:18.000And now, what Iran wants to do is add another form of deterrence, which is we're going to do all of the above, plus we're going to close the Strait.
02:43:27.000We are going to more easily and efficiently and maybe even legally shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
02:43:34.000And that way, the next time the United States goes to war with Iran in a coalition with Israel and the Gulf states, not only is Iran going to weaponize their nukes, not only is Hezbollah going to bomb Israel, not only is Iran going to bomb everybody with missiles, but also they're going to shut down the Strait, and there's nothing we could do about it.
02:43:51.000So, they're just adding another form of deterrence to their strategy.
02:43:57.000And Iran has basically said this openly.
02:43:59.000They said this explicitly a couple of weeks ago.
02:44:04.000Iran's leaders said, We're not interested in normalization so much.
02:44:09.000They said, We're actually not that interested in bilateral relations with the United States, integrating into the region.
02:44:16.000We're not necessarily interested in some formal peace treaty where we're on good terms.
02:44:22.000With the people that tried to destroy us, they said, We're interested in ensuring that they never attack us again.
02:44:29.000He said, We're more interested in ensuring a durable peace, meaning that even if the United States doesn't like us, even if Israel doesn't like us, even if there's no formal peace treaty that ends the war, they're not going to try it again because of deterrence, because Iran has reestablished deterrence, which in a word is an enforcement mechanism.
02:44:49.000Iran is basically saying, We don't trust your treaties.
02:44:53.000We're not interested in a handshake, a photo op.
02:44:56.000We're not interested in some treaty like the JCPOA, which the United States ripped up.
02:45:01.000They said that doesn't guarantee our security.
02:45:05.000All the pomp and circumstance, it's nice, but we saw what happened the last time.
02:45:10.000Iran made a deal with the United States and the European three countries and Russia and China.
02:45:17.000A Zionist puppet, Trump got elected and ripped it up and started attacking Iran, engaging in a shadow campaign against them with Israel, and then outright attacked Iran many times.
02:45:50.000We know that if Iran controls the Strait, that that will make it impossible to ever go in and manage this problem again.
02:45:58.000And by this problem, I mean Iran still has nuclear enrichment, they still have Their stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
02:46:07.000They still have a massive native drone and missile production capability.
02:46:12.000And so, if Iran gains control over the Strait and they take military intervention off the table forever through deterrence, then that means that we basically have no way to intervene if Iran's nuclear program advances to a level that we're not comfortable with.
02:46:28.000Let's say we make a nuclear agreement with Iran.
02:46:31.000If Iran breaks the terms of the agreement, how do we punish them?
02:46:35.000If they control the Strait, there's no way for us to go in.
02:46:39.000Can't bomb them, can't pursue regime change, can't go to war, even in a limited or narrow way, because then they'll choke off the Strait and destroy the global economy again.
02:46:51.000It'll alienate us from NATO, from our partners in the Pacific.
02:46:56.000What's more, if Iran controls the Strait, they're going to make money from it.
02:47:01.000We now have effectively ceded control of one of the world's most vital waterways with 20% of the world's oil, and then they get to charge money off of this.
02:47:10.000So, this is a vital strategic waterway that is under the control of one of our defiant mortal enemies.
02:47:17.000And then they're going to profit from it and use the proceeds to fund the activities that we're concerned about, which is rebuilding their drone and missile infrastructure, advancing their nuclear program, funding their proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, the militias inside of Iraq.
02:47:35.000And then maybe the tertiary concern is that if Iran gains control over a vital waterway, annexes it, uses it to profit, We're also concerned about the precedent this establishes for other vital waterways.
02:47:51.000Are other countries going to look at some of these choke points for global trade?
02:47:56.000And are they going to start to want to charge money?
02:47:59.000Maybe Turkey is going to start to charge for the Bosporus trade, or maybe Malaysia or Singapore, Indonesia will claim control over some of the passages into the South China Sea from the Indian Ocean.
02:48:12.000It's another problem about setting that precedent in general.
02:48:15.000The United States is the guarantor of global security and the rules based order.
02:48:20.000We have to ensure freedom of navigation.
02:48:33.000It's a huge prize for Iran to walk away from our all out attack with control over this vital waterway and then basically all the leverage in any future diplomacy or relationship with the United States and our partners in the Middle East.
02:48:50.000So, you understand basically now that this is the strategic issue at the heart of.
02:48:56.000What is happening with the U.S. and Iran?
02:48:59.000When we're bombing Iran in any form and any capacity since the original ceasefire, we're trying to compel them through the threat of force or assassinations to open up the strait and let us leave.
02:49:12.000The negotiations are accomplishing the exact same thing.
02:49:15.000That has been the central point of contention even since the original ceasefire we are telling Iran, look, we'll stop bombing you, but for us to leave you alone, we need you to open up the strait.
02:49:27.000So that we could get our oil back, we could get our economy going.
02:49:30.000But the terms under which the strait must open is freedom of navigation.
02:49:34.000And Iran has not been willing to do this.
02:49:36.000And so that's why, even since the original ceasefire, we had to negotiate the MOU.
02:49:42.000But inside the Memorandum of Understanding, which is the latest agreement, which we talked about as it was announced and they formally agreed to it in June, is that the actual provisions inside the MOU are totally ambiguous about the strait.
02:49:59.000What the memorandum of understanding says is that the Strait of Hormuz will open.
02:50:05.000Normal traffic must resume within 30 days of the signing of the agreement.
02:50:10.000And normal traffic is about 130 to 160 ships per day, something like that.
02:50:16.000That was the pre war volume of shipping.
02:50:19.000But it also says that the Strait will be jointly managed by Iran and Oman.
02:50:26.000Well, nobody knows because it doesn't say.
02:50:28.000The provision says the strait will open, normal traffic must resume within 30 days, and it will be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, which border the strait, with consultation from the other Gulf countries, which are Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE.
02:50:47.000And so Iran has met with Oman and they discussed this, and there's some disagreement about what will happen there.
02:50:52.000This is what brings us to what has happened today.
02:50:55.000So, since the MOU, there's been this uneasy understanding about the strait.
02:51:01.000Iran has said that they're implementing the agreement by gradually opening up the Strait of Hormuz and allowing traffic to resume.
02:51:09.000However, what Iran says is that this is going to be a managed opening, it's going to be a controlled opening.
02:51:18.000And they're saying that in order to ensure safe passage in the Strait, all of the commercial ships that transit have to get permission from the IRGC first and only use approved routes.
02:51:31.000They say they're conducting demining operations.
02:51:34.000They're removing all the sea based mines.
02:51:38.000And they're also effectively enforcing something like a blockade.
02:51:41.000They're threatening to shoot on any ship that doesn't have permission.
02:51:45.000And so Iran is saying look, the strait is opening.
02:51:47.000We're allowing traffic to go through, but we're going to need you to tell us before you're coming, and you can only go through these routes.
02:51:58.000So this is how it worked as the MOU was passed.
02:52:02.000These ships were coordinating with the IRGC.
02:52:04.000They were being allowed to leave the strait, and traffic was picking back up to about 30, 35 ships on average per day.
02:52:13.000But then what started to happen about two weeks ago is that a second route was opened up on the southern side of the strait.
02:52:20.000So, the Strait of Hormuz is bounded on the north by Iran and Iran's islands, and on the south by Oman, which is a far weaker country with a much smaller population and which is relatively neutral between Iran and the United States.
02:52:35.000So, the United States, in conjunction with Oman, has opened up this second route on the southern side, which ships have been using without getting permission from Iran.
02:52:45.000And so, you could say these two different routes represent the two different strategic ideas about what will happen in the Strait.
02:52:52.000Iran wants to establish the precedent that to use the strait, you need permission from them first.
02:52:59.000Because if ships start to get used to the idea that they need Iran's permission to go through the strait, then outside the life of this agreement, which expires in 60 days, then Iran will only grant permission if you pay Iran.
02:53:26.000And if they own it, they can seek a rent off of it as well.
02:53:31.000And so in the future, they're going to say, well, we're only giving permission to go through the strait if you pay our $1 per barrel of oil fee or $2 million per ship fee.
02:53:41.000And they're going to finesse the language.
02:53:43.000They're saying, well, this is a fee for services rendered environmental fees, protection fees, service fees.
02:53:50.000This is our payoff to manage the strait.
02:53:54.000And so Iran wants every ship to go through their approved route.
02:53:58.000And they're going to enforce this because that will establish the precedent for their legal, formal claim over the strait, which will give them the right in the future to charge money to use it.
02:54:09.000Now, if Oman opens up a free lane, if they open up a route that can be used for free without permission, then obviously this is a threat to Iran's claim, their monopolistic claim of controlling the strait.
02:54:23.000And what started to happen in the past two weeks is that the volume of shipping going through the strait went up dramatically because all the ships.
02:54:31.000Started to go through the free route, hugging the coast of Oman.
02:54:36.000And so, what happened not last Friday, but the Friday before that, is that Iran began attacking those ships with drones and missiles.
02:54:45.000And Iran's supreme leader and their jurist council said that for this route to exist threatens Iran's control over the strait, which is all their leverage, which is effectively all their deterrent power.
02:54:56.000They said it can't be allowed to go on.
02:54:58.000So, they started to attack this shipping every single day Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
02:55:04.000Not last week, but the week before that, that final week in June.
02:55:09.000In response, the United States bombed Iran's southern coast from where they were launching these attacks, bombing drone launch sites, missile launch sites on Iran's islands and on their southern coast as a direct and proportional retaliation for those attacks.
02:55:24.000On top of that, the United States began escorting all commercial shipping with a full package drones, Ospreys, and fighter jets.
02:55:33.000Individual ships were getting a full package to go through the strait.
02:55:37.000To deter Iran from targeting them with drones.
02:55:41.000Over the past week, things have been relatively quiet.
02:55:44.000Iran has been hosting the funeral of their supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
02:55:49.000And so they've had delegations from every country.
02:55:51.000I think over 100 countries came to visit, including Saudi Arabia, including Qatar, including all the countries involved in the conflict.
02:56:00.000But then this started up all over again last night.
02:56:03.000Ships have continued to use that southern route, hugging.
02:56:33.000And this was put to put Iran in check, saying, if you attack those ships, we're going to shoot down the projectiles, we're going to bomb the sites where they came from.
02:56:43.000Well, now the U.S. response was not proportional.
02:56:49.000Under the Pentagon, basically said this to the press.
02:56:52.000They said the goal of this strike is not to be proportional.
02:56:55.000This is to send a message to the leadership in Tehran, which is if you keep messing around and you don't leave our shipping alone, we're going back to war.
02:57:05.000So we launched a strike against about 80 different targets, 60 Iranian ships, and about 20 sites on Iran's coast and on its islands.
02:57:15.000It was a powerful strike intended to send the message that, like I said, You have to enforce your part of the MOU and let the shipping go through.
02:57:25.000In response, Iran is now launching a major drone and missile attack against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
02:57:33.000And now I assume the United States will retaliate for this.
02:57:37.000And so it looks like the MOU has basically fallen apart.
02:57:40.000Like I said, the other big part of this is not only did the U.S. bomb Iran disproportionately, but today we also announced that we're revoking the sanctions waiver given to them in the MOU.
02:57:52.000In order to even get Iran to agree to this 60 day memorandum of understanding, which we're about 30 days in, something like that, we haven't even started implementing it.
02:58:05.000But part of the sweetener to get Iran even in the agreement in the first place was up front we ended our blockade of their shipping.
02:58:14.000So ever since the MOU started, Iran has been freely importing and exporting through the strait.
02:58:22.000Meanwhile, the strait is still closed for us.
02:58:25.000And secondarily, the other thing they got up front is that we gave a waiver on U.S. sanctions against their oil.
02:58:32.000So ever since the MOU went into effect, Iran has been able to sell its oil at full price on the open market, and they've been able to denominate this trade in dollars, which means that they have gotten immediate financial relief.
02:58:49.000In the previous regime, we were not allowing them to use U.S. dollars.
02:58:54.000We banned them from the U.S. dollar system.
02:58:56.000And so not only did they have to sell their oil on the black market with their shadow fleet to select customers at a discount, but also it was very arduous to receive the payment for the oil.
02:59:07.000It took a longer period of time because they had to go through other currencies.
02:59:11.000Well, not only did we let them sell the oil on the open market, which means they can charge full price, they can sell to a variety of customers, so it's competitive, but also we let them settle the payments in dollars.
02:59:23.000They're getting billions and billions of dollars from the sale of their oil.
03:00:12.000The third thing they got is they get to keep their nuclear program going under the previous status quo.
03:00:18.000So, even though the first war was about limiting and restraining their nuclear program, and the second war was about regime change to get them to abandon the development of some kind of threshold status with their nuclear program, under this agreement, there's no restrictions on it.
03:00:36.000As we negotiate restrictions on the nuclear program, they're moving full steam ahead, and the status quo prevails.
03:01:52.000They're finessing and manipulating us, and we're going to give them billions of dollars more to keep them in the process, which didn't actually happen, as so we're told, but that's something that was offered to them.
03:02:28.000It was roughly 37 ships on average per day, which is only a little bit higher than the highest it's been since the war started in February, which was back when the ceasefire happened in April.
03:02:41.000I think it was a high of 30 ships went through the strait on a given day.
03:02:51.000But the second big part of the MOU is that it didn't actually fundamentally resolve anything.
03:02:57.000If, in order to end this conflict, we needed to resolve three things, which is one, how we're going to end hostilities with Iran, two, how we're going to open up the strait, and three, what the future negotiations will look like over the nuclear program, the MOU didn't solve any of these.
03:03:15.000Because, like I said from the beginning, there was no explicit agreement about what would be done about Lebanon.
03:03:22.000The MOU said it's going to be a ceasefire on every front or no deal, and that includes Lebanon.
03:03:29.000Well, we're not the ones bombing Lebanon.
03:04:50.000Iran never abandoned their intentions of controlling the strait.
03:04:53.000The United States never abandoned its goal of liberating the strait for freedom of navigation.
03:04:58.000So that was always going to be a problem.
03:05:01.000And by the way, Iran used the first violation to justify breaching the second.
03:05:07.000And by that I mean, Iran said if there's no ceasefire in Lebanon, which they knew there wouldn't be, That is the pretext under which we will not implement the opening of the strait.
03:05:18.000They said, as long as the war in Lebanon is going on, we're not really going to open up the strait.
03:05:23.000And we're also not going to do the third thing, which is even begin negotiations on the nuclear program.
03:05:29.000And there's still no agreement on that either.
03:05:31.000So, like I said from the start, this MOU is a sham.
03:05:35.000Just like the original ceasefire, just like all these negotiations happening in Switzerland and Turkey and Islamabad and elsewhere, these negotiations.
03:05:45.000They're fundamentally not accomplishing anything.
03:05:49.000And I think what every single party recognizes, but what they are not telling us, what Israel and the Pentagon and Iran all assume, is that we are going back to war.
03:07:03.000We knew their intention was to keep the strait closed under their management.
03:07:07.000But we knew that if we made a gesture, if we sweetened the deal by letting them get their oil out first, hey, oil is oil.
03:07:17.000If we let the oil get out of the strait, if we let some of the other oil get out, even if they got to pay, even if they need Iran's permission, Even if some of the ships get attacked hugging the coast of Oman, we said, hey, at least the markets are going to be optimistic.
03:07:35.000And so maybe we could stabilize the prices and keep them low.
03:07:39.000And this supply will increase a little bit on the global market.
03:07:43.000And I think that's really what this whole charade is about.
03:07:46.000Ever since the MOU was passed, this was about averting maybe the worst case scenario energy shortage ahead of the midterm elections.
03:07:55.000How do we just increase the global supply of energy a little bit?
03:08:41.000But whether the tankers leave through the Iranian controlled route and they pay or need permission, whether they leave through the Omani route and some of them get lost along the way, that's also increasing the supply of oil.
03:08:54.000So we can huff and puff and we could be upset about it and we could say they're in breach of the agreement and all the rest of it, but the oil is hitting the market.
03:09:04.000And maybe that's what matters in all of this.
03:09:07.000And if the oil is hitting the market, then we get an economic reprieve.
03:09:13.000We also get to buy time to do what we need to do and recover militarily, whether that's evacuating some of our soldiers, figuring out a different system of fortifications.
03:09:25.000We had a lot of our soldiers inside hotels.
03:09:28.000Hotels are not fortified against a drone strike.
03:09:54.000And then on the other side, the same thing is happening in Iran.
03:09:57.000Iran has gone back to work rebuilding their drone and missile production capability since April.
03:10:03.000Ever since the heavy U.S. bombardment stopped in the first week of April, I think it was April 7th or April 8th, beginning of the second week.
03:10:12.000Iran went right back to work rebuilding their missile and drone production capability, getting cheap supplies from China.
03:10:20.000And now the U.S. intelligence for the military estimates that they still have 75% of their missile arsenal.
03:10:27.000They'll be back to 100% within six months, as early as six months.
03:10:33.000So, this is the United States buying time economically to avert a worst case scenario energy crunch.
03:10:40.000And this is also buying time for Iran to get a little bit of cash.
03:10:44.000To pay their police and their military, getting a little bit of cash and time to rebuild their drone and missile infrastructure as well.
03:10:51.000And I think what that represents is we're both getting ready for round two.
03:10:55.000We both think that we can fight the other to exhaustion.
03:10:59.000We both are still confident that we can get what we want, which is to say, Iran is not, they're not waving the white flag.
03:11:05.000They still want control of the Strait.
03:11:07.000They don't fear a return to hostilities.
03:12:35.000What we effectively did with Midnight Hammer is we put ourselves on a pathway that inevitably leads to a decisive confrontation.
03:12:45.000And by decisive, I mean one side is going to lose badly.
03:12:50.000Either Iran's regime will fall or the United States will be dealt such a devastating blow, militarily or economically, that we have to leave.
03:12:59.000And maybe that means the regime with the Trump administration.
03:13:02.000Maybe it goes on until 28 and a new president's elected on a promise of ending the war.
03:13:07.000I mean, But in some way, shape, or form, something's got to give here, and it's going to be with some finality.
03:13:14.000Because from a strategic point of view, we're not going to let Iran have this nuclear stockpile, have a nuclear enrichment capability, have this native drone and missile capability, and we have no say, no check, no ability to enforce an agreement, no ability to trim the grass, intervene if it gets out of hand, especially not now when the regime is absolutely defiant and dug in and resilient.
03:13:42.000And in many ways, vengeful and furious about what happened.
03:13:46.000So, we can't let them alone, and they can't leave us alone.
03:13:50.000They need to stick it to us so we don't try this again.
03:13:53.000So, like I said, I think when you consider what's happening on a deep level strategically, you realize it's not that the war isn't going to end, it's that the war cannot end unless it's decisive.
03:14:49.000Is that President Trump visited Ankara, the capital of Turkey, for a NATO summit where he met with all the NATO leaders.
03:14:56.000And there were a lot of expectations about what would be addressed there, what would be said concerning some of the defense budgets of countries like the UK, Italy, and Spain, expectations about Greenland and Denmark.
03:15:11.000But a big question was concerning the president of Turkey, Erdogan, and whether Turkey would receive the green light.
03:15:20.000For a deal where the U.S. would sell them five F 35 fighter jets.
03:15:26.000Now, it was expected that President Trump would come to this NATO summit and would formally and officially announce that the U.S. was going to move to give the authorization and the clearance to sell these F 35 fighter jets to Turkey.
03:15:42.000This is something that's been discussed in the past several weeks by Vice President Vance, President Trump.
03:15:51.000And it was expected that today it would have been a done deal.
03:15:54.000But Trump came to Turkey today and basically said it's not a done deal.
03:15:59.000He said, We're considering it, we're looking at doing it, but he stopped short of saying we're actually going to give them the F 35 jets.
03:16:06.000And this is a story about this from the New York Times.
03:16:09.000It says President Trump heaped praise on Turkish President Erdogan as he arrived at the NATO summit on Tuesday, but stopped short of publicly agreeing to give Erdogan the ability to purchase U.S. F 35 fighter jets.
03:16:23.000Answering questions from reporters at the start of a meeting between the two leaders, Trump said that he thought allowing Erdogan to have access to the fighter jets made sense.
03:16:31.000And it was something certainly that we will consider.
03:16:35.000Erdogan offered a more definitive judgment, saying in Turkish that Trump had promised the country five planes and that, quote, Mr. Trump always stands by his word.
03:16:44.000Last month, Trump said he planned to present a gift to Erdogan in Turkey that would make him very happy and suggested Erdogan serving as the host was the main reason that he would make the nine hour journey to the NATO summit.
03:16:56.000The main item Erdogan has sought are those fighter jets.
03:17:00.000During Trump's first term, Turkey was banned from receiving the stealth planes.
03:17:04.000Because the country bought a Russian air defense system.
03:17:08.000At the meeting with Erdogan, Trump said the sale of the planes would make sense.
03:17:11.000He said, I can tell you many people, including the people sitting here, think, why wouldn't we do that?
03:17:17.000We have a better relationship with Turkey, and Turkey's been in many ways much more loyal than other countries that we think would be loyal.
03:17:25.000I wonder who he's talking about there.
03:17:28.000He says, Why wouldn't we give them F 35s?
03:17:30.000They're more loyal than other countries that should be loyal.
03:17:35.000But whether Congress would try to block the sale remains unclear.
03:17:39.000At the end of Trump's first term, Congress passed a law to prevent Turkey from buying the planes as long as it has the Russian S 400 anti aircraft system.
03:17:48.000Under the terms of the deal that was still being finalized during the gathering, Turkey would ship its S 400 system to a third country, helping to address the security concerns about F 35s being operated by the same militaries.
03:18:02.000So, a little bit of background on this.
03:18:06.000Turkey was actually part of the consortium going back to 1999, even to develop the F 35 jet.
03:18:15.000These jets are designed and developed and planned and built long before they actually are introduced into a country's arsenal.
03:18:27.000And in 1999, Turkey, along with other NATO countries, was part of that consortium to develop that next generation stealth fighter aircraft.
03:18:37.000And so, like other NATO countries, other U.S. allies, they were supposed to get them.
03:18:43.000However, in 2017, Turkey bought these S 400 air defense systems from Russia.
03:18:50.000And this is a time when Turkey was seeking a closer relationship with Russia.
03:18:55.000They were trying to play Russia and the United States off of each other, really in a bid to increase their leverage and their power as a middle power.
03:19:04.000Well, if the United States furnished Turkey with this S 400, F 35 fighter jet at the same time that Turkey had an S 400 anti aircraft system.
03:19:15.000What might have happened is that if Turkey is flying these fighter jets, the S 400 radar system, which they also operate, might gain some intelligence about how to detect an F 35 jet.
03:19:31.000F 35 is a stealth fighter, and so it's proprietary technology.
03:19:35.000What makes it so sophisticated is the difficulty to detect this on radar.
03:19:40.000Well, the S 400, an anti aircraft system, the proprietary technology there is its radar.
03:19:47.000It's extremely sophisticated and advanced radar.
03:19:50.000If Turkey has a Russian anti aircraft system and an American aircraft system, well, they could use the Russian anti aircraft and its radar in particular to detect the F 35, and they could potentially give that information to Russia, such that then Russia could update its anti aircraft systems to be able to detect the F 35s, and then that would become a very valuable system to sell to other countries.
03:20:20.000If Venezuela or Syria or Iran had an anti aircraft system capable of detecting an F 35, that would make it very valuable.
03:20:29.000And Russia would become then a more valuable arms supplier.
03:20:33.000So, for that reason, the United States and Congress moved to ban Turkey from buying the F 35.
03:20:40.000You can have an American aircraft, you can have a Russian anti aircraft system, but you can't have both.
03:20:47.000And so, it's actually against the law.
03:20:50.000Well, what has changed in recent weeks is that Israel has been very disobedient to the United States.
03:20:57.000Like we talked about with the MOU with Iran, in order for the United States to get Iran to end the conflict and open the strait, we actually have to compel Israel to stop their campaign in Lebanon.
03:21:10.000Iran has made it a condition of any future ceasefire or truce that Israel must stop the campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
03:21:22.000Trump is begging and pressuring Netanyahu to stop their campaign to please Iran so that they will let us have our oil so that we can avert this energy economic catastrophe.
03:21:35.000Israel has been defiant, they won't listen.
03:21:39.000As time has gone on since the fall of the Assad regime in 2024, and since October 7th, Turkey and Israel have become true rivals.
03:21:49.000It's become a domestic political problem for Turkey.
03:21:52.000They no longer are even, I think, able to maintain close relations with Israel.
03:21:58.000Turkey in the past has had a good and pragmatic bilateral relationship with Israel.
03:22:03.000But since October 7th and the slaughter of the Palestinians, an increasingly Islamicized, Islamized country like Turkey is not able to keep this relationship.
03:22:14.000But also in December 2024, the Assad regime fell, replaced by this new government led by Ahmed El Shara, previously Jilani.
03:22:24.000And now Turkey has sought to use Syria.
03:22:27.000As a forward operating base, Israel has a fear that Turkey longs to encircle Israel by increasing its influence in the Levant, that they have these ambitions to rebuild the Ottoman Empire.
03:22:42.000And so they want to expand into the South, maybe into the Arabian Peninsula.
03:22:46.000And if they do this, then they have this strategic encirclement of Israel and they become a rival, quite like Iran.
03:22:54.000And Turkey, like Iran, like Egypt, has a long history, has a common culture and language.
03:23:00.000Massive population and middle class experts, major army, million man army, and military industrial complex.
03:23:08.000If Turkey sours on Israel, they represent a true strategic threat and they would become a real rival.
03:23:15.000So it's the souring of that relationship since October 7th, but also this competition inside of Syria.
03:23:22.000It's becoming now something like a cold proxy war between Ankara and Tel Aviv inside of Syria to compete for influence there that has soured Israel on Turkey.
03:23:33.000And so now, in order to put pressure on Israel to end their campaign in Lebanon, the Trump administration is flirting with the idea of giving Turkey F 35s.
03:23:44.000Now, the sale of F 35s to Turkey is largely symbolic.
03:23:49.000We're going to give them five fighter jets.
03:23:51.000And there are a lot of problems with this, which is one, in order for Turkey to even have and operate the F 35s, they really need integration with the U.S. military industrial complex.
03:24:04.000There's an industrial component to this as well.
03:24:07.000So it's not as simple as they just get the F 35s.
03:24:10.000They also need some industrial capacity for parts and maintenance and other things.
03:24:16.000What's more, for us to actually deliver the F 35s is going to take years.
03:25:13.000But the problem that this poses to Israel is that the U.S. and Israel have always had this special relationship, as everybody knows.
03:25:21.000And the reason that Israel has a military advantage over its neighbors. Is because this is actually enshrined in federal law in the United States.
03:25:31.000There's a federal statute in America that says that when we sell military technology to countries in the Middle East, we can't do it in such a way that it gives those countries a military edge over Israel.
03:25:46.000The terminology that's used is qualitative military edge.
03:25:51.000And it is a legally binding mandate that whatever we give to Israel and whatever we give to any and every other country.
03:25:59.000We must ensure that Israel maintains the qualitative military edge over that country.
03:26:05.000So, for example, we were giving F 35s, I think it was to the Emirates or Saudi Arabia recently, but we couldn't give them as many as we wanted to because we had to make sure that Israel always has more than that other country because it is mandated that we got to protect Israel's military edge.
03:26:25.000It's not enough that Israel has a nuclear arsenal of 300 warheads.
03:26:30.000It's not enough that they have intelligence sharing and close coordination with the Pentagon.
03:26:37.000We also make sure that they have the best and most sophisticated equipment from a technological point of view and that they have more of it, that they have more of it or enough of it that's sufficient that they will have the edge over the Emirates or Saudi Arabia or Qatar.
03:26:52.000And so the idea that we would give Turkey F 35s, what it represents is that we might try to balance things out in the Middle East.
03:27:01.000Maybe it's good for the United States to give Turkey.
03:27:09.000We're going to make it a little bit more uncomfortable.
03:27:11.000Let's say, for the sake of argument, there's a hypothetical conflict in Syria.
03:27:17.000When the Assad regime was pushed out, Erdogan had an idea to build a Turkish military base inside of Syria.
03:27:25.000Well, Israel went ahead and bombed that base to ensure it couldn't be used by Turkey.
03:27:32.000Already there's going to be A struggle for power to fill that vacuum inside of Syria.
03:27:38.000And I think increasingly it's going to be militarized.
03:27:41.000Israel wants to maintain its freedom of operation in Syria, which is to say their ability to strike where and when they want with impunity.
03:27:49.000And Turkey sees al Shara as a partner.
03:27:52.000So, Turkey is going to want to stabilize that government on their southern border and probably increase military cooperation and thus probably protect that regime and its stability of its government and its unity over the entire territory.
03:28:07.000So, let's say there's some hypothetical conflict.
03:28:10.000Israel is going to want the ability, if necessary, to win a war against Turkey.
03:28:15.000At the minimum, to win an air war against Turkey in Syria.
03:28:19.000If Turkey has an inferior air force, then they might need to eventually bow out and withdraw from such a conflict.
03:28:28.000Well, if the United States is furnishing Turkey with the latest F 35 or some variant of F 35, then maybe that battle becomes a little bit closer than it otherwise would be.
03:28:39.000And maybe that gives Turkey a little bit more leverage in Syria, and maybe it gives them a little bit more leverage in Cyprus.
03:28:45.000And they get a little bit more power in the Eastern Mediterranean, feel a little bit more comfortable exerting themselves.
03:29:02.000So if we're giving, in other words, Turkey the same qualitative type of technology, the same type of jet, then symbolically it's like Turkey and Israel have the same tech, they have the same air force.
03:29:15.000It's going to be a little bit more balanced.
03:29:18.000And so, this is basically indicating to Israel okay, whatever happens in Iran, you're going to have to deal with Turkey.
03:29:25.000Maybe Turkey becomes the protector and guarantor of the West Bank.
03:29:30.000If Gaza's cooked, maybe Turkey's going to prevent the annexation of the West Bank.
03:29:34.000Maybe Turkey becomes the guarantor of a peace in Lebanon or Syria for that matter, or sovereignty in Cyprus or elsewhere.
03:29:42.000Israel's going to have to deal with them.
03:29:43.000What's more, Turkey has just entered into a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
03:29:50.000Okay, so even in a scenario where you don't got to worry about Iran anymore, Iran's out of the picture.
03:30:39.000So I think that's the bigger picture here.
03:30:41.000I don't know that the United States will give them F 35s anytime soon.
03:30:45.000And like I said, even if that decision was made, it's going to be a very long and complicated process.
03:30:51.000We may not even get across the finish line.
03:30:54.000But talking about it and threatening that, and even, for example, going to Ankara in the middle of the implementation of the MOU, what that's meant to do is send a message, which is get in line.
03:31:10.000You don't want to do what we say in Lebanon?
03:31:13.000You're going to rebel against the United States?
03:31:15.000Well, then let's see how that goes for you when we give a squadron of F 35s to the Emirates and we give a squadron to Turkey, and suddenly you're encircled.
03:31:32.000I don't think there's going to be a ton of movement on that.
03:31:34.000It's possible, but I don't think that's going to be anything happening in a timely manner.
03:31:40.000I think that's mostly geared at the current situation in Iran.
03:31:44.000But I'll tell you, the Middle East is changing.
03:31:48.000And so the old way that things were structured, which is this Iran Saudi Arabia proxy war and the rise of Iran's influence in the wake of the fall of Saddam Hussein and the Syrian civil war, that's no longer the story after October 7th.
03:32:05.000And the new story is increasing cooperation between this hexagonal alliance.
03:32:12.000Which is India, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, Israel, potentially other partners, against this more status quo Islamist coalition of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Qatar, and the United States trying to find a way to navigate in the aftermath of these wars as we extricate ourselves and look towards a future in the Indo Pacific.
03:35:07.000What do you think of Ron Un's suggestion to Russia that it should publicly declare a hypersonic strike on the NATO HQ and dare them to defend it with anti missile systems?
03:35:12.000The boldness of Ukrainian attacks and the total lack of Russian deterrence seem to be making a broader war with Europe increasingly likely as EU leaders think it will be easy.
03:36:16.000The arms race has always been going on.
03:36:20.000And so you could go back to the development of the earliest ABM systems, to the Strategic Defense Initiative, to after the Cold War, the deployment of an ABM system in Eastern Europe, and the withdrawal of the United States from the ABM Treaty.
03:36:38.000ABM is extremely destabilizing because.
03:36:42.000The reason we have something like a stable world order between the great powers or the nuclear armed powers is because of the principle of mutually assured destruction.
03:37:16.000You know, there's this question of a first strike.
03:37:19.000If the United States possesses WMDs and the Soviet Union possesses WMDs and we're competing for power in the world, as long as the Soviet Union possesses WMDs to destroy the United States, we have to assume they would tend to use the weapons.
03:37:34.000It would be in our interest to destroy those weapons.
03:38:13.000And we need to hide the location of the nukes.
03:38:15.000And not only that, but we need multiple delivery systems.
03:38:19.000We need to not only have ICBMs, intercontinental ballistic missiles that we launch from the ground in a fixed position, but also we need them on nuclear armed submarines.
03:38:45.000If the submarines for some reason fail, if all of Russia's territory is destroyed, Before the American missiles hit Russia, maybe they could get strategic aircraft off the ground and carry a nuclear glide bomb over the United States.
03:39:00.000There's where you get the nuclear triad.
03:39:02.000So, mutually assured destruction means surviving that first strike.
03:39:06.000Well, what happens when the United States develops an anti ballistic missile system that shoots ballistic missiles down?
03:39:12.000Well, now this destabilizes this equation because previously we rely on this equation that, hey, as long as neither of us is confident we could survive, Or both of us are confident we could survive a first strike, we don't have to worry about a first strike.
03:39:28.000Well, if one country develops a shield that ballistic missiles can't hit us, or not all of them are going to hit, or most of them aren't going to hit, then maybe that country that's shielded from this becomes confident they could survive a first strike.
03:39:41.000We're going to hunt down all your subs, we're going to shoot down your strategic aircraft, and our missiles are going to hit you, and your missiles can't hit us.
03:39:51.000We had an anti ballistic missile treaty under Nixon, which said we're going to limit the development of anti ballistic missile systems for that reason.
03:40:00.000Because what started to happen is that then there was research into other delivery systems for missiles, like that they would have multiple warheads called the MIRV.
03:40:11.000So one missile would have a bunch of different warheads that would all go off in different directions.
03:40:17.000And that way the Soviet Union might have fewer missiles but more warheads.
03:40:23.000Under George W. Bush, we pull out of the ABM Treaty, we deploy ABM systems in Europe, and we say, hey, well, don't worry about it, Russia.
03:40:31.000We need an ABM system to protect Europe from Iran.
03:40:36.000We're not deploying an ABM, which is really a radar system, to shoot down your ballistic missiles in the event of a war with the United States.
03:40:44.000No, we're deploying it to prevent medium, intermediate range missiles from Iran and Europe, which the Russians don't buy.
03:40:52.000So the Russians then start to develop hypersonics.
03:41:27.000And so the thinking is in the Ukraine war, Russia developed these Oresnik hypersonic missiles that they were using against Ukraine as a demonstration to say, look, the United States better not get involved.
03:41:42.000France better not get involved because if they do, our hypersonics are going to hit Paris and there's fucking nothing you could do about it.
03:41:49.000However, in the short time, relatively, that the Ukraine war has been going on, there have been revolutions in drone warfare.
03:42:26.000The drones Ukraine is using now have a longer range than a Tomahawk missile.
03:42:32.000They developed this FP 5 missile that can go deep into Russia, into Siberia.
03:42:39.000They're attacking Russia's oil refineries into the Russian east, not the Far East, but into like Siberia, east of some of those major rivers.
03:42:48.000Hitting oil refineries all the way out.
03:42:50.000Well, Russia's doing a little bit of this themselves.
03:42:53.000Russia's been putting drones over military bases, air force bases, civilian airports all over Europe, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands.
03:43:04.000Russia's been sending drones of their own basically to tease the Europeans, not in a sexual way, of course, but in a military way.
03:43:13.000Basically, they're not sexually teasing them.
03:43:34.000If Europe opened up a front against Russia, Russia would make drones fly against all your bases, all your airports, all your population centers, and you can't do a thing about it.
03:43:45.000You can't identify the drones, where they came from, you can't shoot them down.
03:43:51.000Ukraine has developed defenses against drones, and so they've got electronic jamming and they've got their way of dealing with it, but it's not perfect.
03:44:05.000And so I don't even think a hypersonic ballistic missile is even necessary because I think Russia is doing enough just by putting those drones out there.
03:44:15.000And the other thing is so there's a story this past week, there's intelligence that Russia is going to.
03:44:21.000Plan to cross over into a NATO country like Poland.
03:44:25.000Not in a military way, but they say maybe to recover a downed aircraft or for some kind of humanitarian mission.
03:44:31.000They're going to accidentally stage some kind of incursion and test NATO's willingness to respond or what they would do in that situation.
03:44:39.000They're just trying to see how much they could get away with without triggering that tripwire, which would activate a NATO 5 attack on one, attack on all defense.
03:44:50.000They're trying to test NATO's resolve.
03:44:52.000So, I don't even think they need to do something that extreme.
03:44:55.000Because, look, if Russia launched a hypersonic missile against NATO HQ, the United States has to respond.
03:45:39.000The front lines in the east have basically been frozen.
03:45:44.000Russia's begging Lukashenko to let them open up a front in Ukraine's north, and it doesn't look like Belarus is even going to do it.
03:45:53.000In other words, Russia's getting desperate.
03:45:55.000Not to mention the casualty rate is getting very high.
03:45:57.000They say that there's something like 30,000 casualties every month on the front lines on the Russian side in the Ukraine war.
03:46:06.000They say that Russia is losing as many men as they can conscript in any given day.
03:46:12.000So I don't know why Russia would do that at this point.
03:46:15.000I think that it makes more sense now for Russia to effectively try to work out a truce or a ceasefire, try to freeze the line of contact.
03:46:24.000Because what I said last year, and I think this is just true, Last year, Washington was begging Russia for a truce, begging them for a short term ceasefire, really making this overture.
03:46:35.000And Russia said they were not going to do any kind of short term ceasefire.
03:46:40.000They wanted a long term peace agreement focusing on root causes.
03:46:47.000So when Russia was making their biggest gains in Ukraine since the war started, why would they want to stop?
03:46:55.000In a 30 day truce or ceasefire, they would go to Ukraine because then they would get to build up their defensive fortifications, they would get to rearm, they would get to conscript more men.
03:50:08.000That's who I am, and you're not that good.
03:50:09.000Well, I agree in part, but not entirely.
03:50:16.000But what I do think is very important for all of us to understand, I think we all feel it also almost every day in some sense, is that we are at a watershed moment in history.
03:50:31.000Passing the baton, say, from the United States to China, which is how it's often discussed.
03:50:39.000What I do think is true is that we're at the end of a 500 year cycle in history.
03:50:47.000500 years ago was the beginning of Europe's ascent to global power.
03:50:54.000And it came basically when one looks back because of two.
03:51:02.000Decisive voyages at the end of the 15th century.
03:51:06.000Christopher Columbus thought he was going to India and he ended up in the Americas instead.
03:51:15.000Vasco da Gama was aiming to go to Asia.
03:51:19.000He circled the Cape of Good Hope, the southern tip of Africa, and with the help of Arab sailors made it to India.
03:51:30.000So within 10 years, 1492 for Columbus and 1498 for Vasco da Gama's voyage, suddenly Europe had sea routes to the whole world.
03:51:44.000And part of the world was not even known, of course, to the Europeans up to that point, the Americas.
03:51:52.000This, in my view, changed human history for the next five centuries.
03:51:59.000It's a long story, of course, exactly what happened, but basically, Europe's Control over the Americas was a decisive change of relative power in the world.
03:52:14.000Even that story of Europe's control over the Americas needs a footnote that's interesting because a few European conquerors conquered a continent that had about 100 million people in it in the year 1492 when Christopher Columbus arrived.
03:52:31.000And so you might ask, how did Europe conquer the Americas, which had native populations all through the Americas?
03:52:38.000Military conquest primarily, they brought diseases which the New World populations didn't know.
03:52:44.000So the New World was conquered by yellow fever, by typhus, by plague, by malaria, by other diseases brought by the Europeans.
03:52:52.000But the point is that within a century, the native population had been reduced by 95%, and the Europeans had two giant continents for minerals, for gold, for silver, for agriculture, for colonization.
03:53:05.000And this was a change of human history.
03:53:08.000And I raise this point because, to my mind, this is the start of a 500 year period.
03:53:13.000By around 1750, the European global empires, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Dutch, the British, which were the ocean empires, had enough power now to start conquering Asia and Africa.
03:53:29.000They actually couldn't make it into Africa yet because malaria was a protective barrier for Africa, in fact.
03:53:34.000Every time the Europeans went to Africa to try to conquer, they were defeated by the mosquito more than the local populations.
03:53:40.000What enabled Africa to be colonized, which only happened at the end of the 19th century, was gin and tonic.
03:54:02.000And then the British could sit on their verandas and rule over Africa by the end of the 19th century, protected from malaria.
03:54:08.000There's some part where he goes, like, oh, like we're the only ones that can invent stuff or whatever.
03:54:12.000But it's like, okay, so that's Jeffrey Sachs.
03:54:15.000That guy is like, he's the one in the Clinton administration who said that, you know, we should have advanced NATO eastward towards Russia.
03:54:22.000He goes on Tucker Carlson because he like hates Netanyahu and hates Israel or whatever.
03:54:29.000But that's how the guy, he's a Jew, that's how he talks.
03:54:32.000He says, We're not handing it over from the United States to China.
03:54:36.000He said, We're handing it over from the white race to everybody else.
03:54:39.000And he basically says, By the end of it, like, and it's about time.
03:54:43.000It's arbitrary that the Europeans dominated.
03:55:11.000He believes that the third world got this rotten deal, that their entire story is defined by colonialism, and he's advocating for them to basically take control of their resources and unite and stick it to the white nations, to the colonial nations.
03:55:30.000And that's what many of these anti Israel people are.
03:56:40.000Arguably as technologically sophisticated as Europe or more.
03:56:45.000Why couldn't the Muslims, with their glorious Muslim empires, with their glorious Umayyad and Abbasid dynasties, why couldn't they have built the ships?
03:57:33.000And we were the ones that went on the ships going west, not knowing what we'd find.
03:57:37.000And that's when we conquered the natives and we exploited the gold and the minerals and the resources because we knew what to do with them.
03:57:54.000And we turned the world into a machine, an extractive machine, an inframing machine.
03:58:02.000And we created everything that you see, all the good things about the world.
03:58:06.000Your little forum where people discuss their rights, your little forum where people judge the validity of some country's elections, and we judge whether a country has a human rights record.
03:58:29.000Oh, I'm glad that the Europeans that gave the world the Atlantic Charter and the Magna Carta and the Bible, the New Testament.
03:58:38.000Yeah, let's turn it over from the civilization of Plato and Aristotle and Plotinus and the Scholastics and Shakespeare and Mozart and Dante.
03:58:47.000Let's turn it over to the civilization of human sacrifices, mass murder and genocide.
03:58:54.000Slavery, sticks and stones and arrows, public executions.
03:58:59.000Let's turn it over to them and let's wait for them to have their French Revolution, their liberal enlightenment.
04:00:17.000It was funny because we're in Spain and these guys, dude, Ye is like the funniest, unintentionally and intentionally, one of the funniest people I've ever met in my life.
04:01:33.000And then he like threw those guys out.
04:01:35.000It was like, So, very, it was like very amusing to watch, but I couldn't laugh because it's like when he's mad, you got to be like, oh, those guys fucked up.
04:01:49.000I was sitting there, and Sneeko said something like, Yeah, you're on the other side of the door, and your heart is pounding, or something like that.
04:02:00.000And Ye was like, Right, right, absolutely, right.
04:02:06.000And then he saw they were recording, and he flew across the table, slammed the laptop shut.
04:03:56.000It's officially cool to be a pop rap artist, make these stadium anthems about your feelings, you know, about his big bro, Jay Z, about all this kind of stuff.
04:06:06.000It doesn't matter how rich you are, it doesn't matter how powerful you are, how good looking you are, how athletic you are, how much status you have.
04:06:48.000So, there's something to be said about, you know, Ye was just the first one to say it.
04:06:53.000Like, hey, but I think that's a little different.
04:06:55.000He's got a little different sort of a thing going on, but there's like, there's a larger truth there, which is our girls are going and it is what it is.
04:07:47.000And Vance said, Well, look, any law enforcement action is going to be ugly.
04:07:51.000You might have some guy that's a murderer, and if you only take the body cam footage, it's going to look like we're picking on some guy, basically.
04:07:58.000And so, to his credit, that's the part that I remember.
04:19:51.000You know, if you support me because we're in a political movement and you support the ideals of this movement and everything, okay, I understand that.
04:19:59.000I understand being invested in a political ideology.
04:20:04.000But Clavicular is a live streamer, he's just one of the characters in the live stream universe.
04:20:13.000And he always said, Hey, I'd like my character build is I'm only interested in fucking bitches and making money and status maxing.
04:20:22.000And you feel like personally betrayed.
04:20:24.000You're like, Why did Braden Peters go to Israel?
04:21:36.000You got to look your best if you're going to meet up with a girl in real life.
04:21:42.000So, if you're going to hit that benchmark, if you're going to hit that threshold of initial attraction to get a girl, what is actual practical advice to do that?
04:22:51.000You know, these biblical women, dude, they want to hook up with Chads too.
04:22:58.000You think these church going women with Proverbs, whatever in their Instagram bio, Proverbs 6 7 in bio, you think they want to get shacked up with some fucking Latin mass nerd?
04:23:11.000Some Latin mass autist with a bad haircut, 20 pounds overweight, with the scraggly beard?
04:24:24.000So, Clavicular is giving practical advice, which is one women are whores, two women are hypergamous, three they're extremely superficial, four if you want to have any chance of success with women in a modern scenario, you just need to look as good as you can.
04:24:40.000That's all you can do to create that initial attraction.
04:24:44.000It's not the only thing, it's not maybe even sufficient to go the distance.
04:24:49.000But that you're not going to get your foot in the door if you don't have that settled.
04:24:57.000And so, for him to go around basically as a living demonstration, going around on stream and showing how whorish women are, showing how shallow and depraved they are, demonstrating that lookism is real and for winners, okay, that's good.
04:25:16.000I don't need him to have, wait, but is he anti Semitic?
04:26:25.000You're probably some broke, bitchless loser, and you're just like rooting for other men on the timeline, like, deeply invested in their interpersonal relationships.
04:26:35.000I'm all for supporting a political ideology, but some of you people, it's like, if you care that much, get in the game.
04:26:43.000Don't, don't, what Nick didn't disavow Clav.
04:28:06.000It's like, but by the time she's 19, she's got, you know, 16 bodies, and most of them are older than that before they're ready to settle down.
04:29:04.000Here's the difference, though nobody wants to be Trent Horn because we all recognize that, like, his wife has all the power in the relationship.
04:29:45.000The idea that your wife, okay, honey, dear, Light of my life, the idea that your wife that you pour resources into and that you love with all your heart and that you put in a white dress and the mother of your children and you cry over and stress over,
04:30:03.000the idea that she would go on a podcast by herself with another guy airing out how she wanted to cheat on you with another man, people would rather die than get humiliated like that because it's so mortifying.
04:30:32.000Every young man recognizes that at once it represents the worst of both worlds.
04:30:37.000Because it's like, okay, if you're out there having sex with women, you know, eventually you're going to fall in love with one and want to settle down and have kids and have a nice domestic life.
04:30:49.000On the other side, if you're a bachelor or you just mess around, you get to maintain this.
04:30:56.000You get to take risks and be an entrepreneur and do whatever you want, whatever.
04:31:00.000It's like Trent Horn represents the worst of both because it's like you're a low T, risk averse pussy, but also you're like a slave in your own house.
04:31:12.000You're like not even in control of your household.
04:31:15.000And so no man wants to be in that position.
04:36:45.000Muhammad appropriated Christ, said to six year old Isha Jesus was just a prophet, bay, I'm the last prophet, then promptly countermanded look aside doctrine.