In this episode of America First, host Nicholas J. Fuentes ( ) is joined by Bryden P. Proctor ( ) and Vinnie Vellian ( ) to discuss the early election results and what they think about the early voting numbers so far. They also discuss how the midterms are shaping up and what to look out for in the final stretch of the campaign. They also talk about the impact of early voting and how the early vote is shaping up for both parties, and whether or not it will be enough to change the outcome of the mid-terms. And, of course, they have a special guest on the show tonight: the one and only Vince of the Red Elephants! Thanks to our sponsor, Right2Bryden! America First! Subscribe to America First to get immediate access to all of our newest episodes and listen to the latest news and discuss the upcoming mid-term elections. Subscribe today using our podcast s hashtag and find us on social media using the hashtag , and tag to be notified when a new episode is available! of the show hits the pod! We are part of the Gimlet Media Podcast Network. We post polls, analysis, and discussion on all major social medias including Apple Podcasts, and the latest webinars, iReporters, blogs, and social media platforms! . Please rate, review and subscribe to our podcast! and share your thoughts on the latest episodes! to help spread the word to your fellow podcasters! , friends, family and strangers everywhere! Thank you for listening to our newest podcast, we are listening to us! - Nick, Nick, and much more! Nick, Vinnie, and Vince, Vicky, and Bryden, and thanks for listening! ( ) , Vinnie & Bryden Nicky, and Vicky - Vinnie and Vee, Vicky and Vyndor, Vee . v= & Vinnie , Vicky & Vicky , Vee , and Viana, , etc. - Veeee, Vy, Vee & Vyde, . . - Thank you, Nicky & Vee ( ) - Vytee, and Vary, VYTEK, - and Vayner, and
Transcript
Transcripts from "America First - Nicholas J. Fuentes" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. You can also explore and interact with the transcripts here.
00:07:21.000You know, honestly, this has been, I think everyone can agree, everybody who's streaming tonight and everybody on this panel, I think we can all agree that the, maybe the defining characteristic of this election is that it's just totally unpredictable, totally chaotic.
00:07:35.000And, you know, the midterms in the past, the polls aren't always great.
00:07:39.000And last, or two years ago, the election, not a lot of people called it right.
00:07:44.000But this time I feel like nobody really knows what to expect because of the way the turnout's happening.
00:07:49.000Let me just get some of your initial impressions.
00:07:51.000Everybody's kind of heard my take if you watched America First last night or the night before.
00:07:55.000But why don't we start with you, Bryden?
00:07:59.000What do you think going into this and what do you think as we're seeing some of these early results?
00:08:24.000The early voting in a lot of places did favor the Republicans, but it's strange to see just so much turnout.
00:08:34.000Ideally, there's not a lot of turnout.
00:08:36.000That's typically how Republicans win elections.
00:08:39.000But you're seeing kind of that Trump effect in a lot of these places.
00:08:43.000The panhandle down in Florida is some counties are like 60% turnout.
00:08:49.000You know, even in some places over here in Ohio and Indiana, they're more than beating the 2014 and even oftentimes 2016 numbers, which is.
00:08:58.000Kind of scary, but I'm hoping that this is just where, uh, places that Trump has been.
00:09:41.000I mean, there's, you know, I was going through all the house races and there's like, there's a couple races where there's like one poll and it was done back in early September.
00:09:53.000But, but from, I use kind of like the same formula when I predicted back in 2016 that there was going to be about 304 electoral rolls for Donald Trump.
00:10:03.000I looked at, I looked at racial demographics.
00:10:42.000I predict that the Republicans will eke it out, about 219 to 216 based on the analysis that I did, but that just goes to show you how close it can be.
00:10:53.000I mean, some of these races are within hundreds of votes, and so it's going to be a stressful night indeed.
00:11:02.000You know, you're right in the sense that you look at some of the most important swing states in terms of the Senate, like Ohio for example, I think there were two polls conducted and they were both conducted within a week of the election and so there just isn't a wealth of data and this is something I was talking about this week is that even with the midterm polling that we have, which is not a lot, it's smaller sample sizes in the congressional races, it's much more difficult to forecast, you've got these other effects where you have voters that aren't
00:11:32.000Likely to turn out in normal elections and also voters that aren't likely to answer the phone to to actually answer the pollsters That are going to be turning out in this election.
00:11:44.000That's the racial minorities So there's a lot of factors where we say we really have no idea what's going on I think some of the trends we're seeing is there's definitely a lot more young people voting.
00:11:54.000There's definitely I think there's probably a lot more racial minorities voting I think the Democrats are
00:12:01.000Mobilizing in the Midwest and the Rust Belt in a way that they weren't in 2016.
00:12:04.000And so when you look at those things, to me, this presents a problem, but conversely, we don't know what the Republican turnout's going to look like.
00:12:12.000So, the polling, I'm kind of throwing it all out the window, and it's going to come down to who turns out.
00:12:17.000Democrats are turning out big numbers.
00:12:19.000Republicans, looks like in some of the rural counties, what we've seen from Indiana and Kentucky, are turning out, you know, as much as they need to.
00:12:26.000So, you're right, it's going to be close.
00:12:28.000So far we don't have any forecast here.
00:12:30.000I've got, let me transition over here, I've got the New York Times live forecast, if you remember The Needle from 2016.
00:12:38.000In Indiana right now, Mike Braun is ahead by over 100,000 votes.
00:12:51.000And so that would cover the gap that we need for Indianapolis.
00:12:54.000So it seems like, to me, that Braun, we might pick up a Senate seat there.
00:13:23.000I know you're saying it's a bunch of the rural counties that have come in, but if you just go to the New York Times map right there, and the whole big dot of it is Indianapolis, and it's heavily for Donnelly.
00:13:40.000Mike Braun campaigned very hard in there.
00:13:42.000You know, I'm right on the edge over in Cincinnati, so I pick up a lot of their AM radio ads and all of that, and they went after Donald pretty hard, so I'm pretty sure.
00:13:57.000For whatever reason, the Hoosiers just love that guy, so if you get him behind anything, everybody's like, all right.
00:14:01.000I'm looking actually at the betting markets right now.
00:14:04.000This is, to me, another good indicator.
00:14:06.000Typically it tends to fluctuate with the news in the sense that you know it's not the best predictor it's more just a good sign of where the common mood is that because you know if you're invested if you're betting money you're more invested in it you've got the most up-to-date facts and for the betting markets right now they have
00:14:24.000At least for Indiana, they've got Joe Donnelly at a 20% chance, basically, of winning re-election.
00:14:30.000So it looks like we've basically got Indiana in the bag, which is a very good thing to me because the polling was basically in the middle on Indiana.
00:14:39.000I don't know if you guys were watching the polling on RealClearPolitics, but the average, I believe it was 24 hours ago or 48 hours ago, was only a 0.8% advantage for Donnelly, actually.
00:14:49.000So if he ends up losing by a big margin, I think
00:15:28.000Four minutes at a time of just me, like, chuckling, like, oh, he's making the good jokes.
00:15:34.000But yeah, when it comes to Predict It, I understand the logic behind, you know, people wanting to put money, and this is a little tinfoil hat, but they're putting, you know, money and what have you, but people also
00:15:51.000Love long shots and will pay off, you know big big payoffs on that So if you are looking at 2016 and you're like, okay, I can you know, I have a hundred extra dollars I can dump it on Beto O'Rourke.
00:16:02.000Well, if he happens to win then I've made a lot more money So I don't think that predicted is gonna end up being as accurate as it should be great idea But you're forgetting there's a lot of people out there with just you know
00:16:16.000Okay, there's a there's a massive delay in our voices in terms of the OBS software, it's it's all coming in at the same time.
00:16:28.000So let me let me investigate this a little bit But in the meantime, I'm gonna throw up some of the numbers here on the screen and and we'll just let people take a look But I'm gonna try and figure this out here
00:16:38.000Wouldn't be America First if we didn't have a boomer tech issue, right?
00:16:41.000Wouldn't be... We actually just had a switch.
00:16:44.000I'm using a very different headset than I usually use.
00:16:52.000Or, you know, why don't we just, in the meantime, if there's... Wait, is it out of sync in terms of our... Like, my voice is not syncing up with your voice?
00:17:00.000Because if that's the case, I don't... Okay.
00:17:18.000Or rather, it wouldn't be America First without the Boomer Tech.
00:17:27.000But anyway, what I was saying about Indiana, while you figure that out, is that two years ago in 2016, Donald Trump lost Indianapolis by about 100,000 votes.
00:17:37.000So right now, Braun is ahead by over 100,000 votes.
00:17:40.000So that would make up the gap, the margin that we need for when we take the big hit of Indianapolis when all the votes start reporting.
00:17:48.000I mean, as it looks right now, that's a Senate seat for us, but again, it's really the House that's really shaky for us in this election, which, and I'm most concerned about, because we don't want to hand the gavel and subpoena power to Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party.
00:18:43.000I think that Rick Scott can pull it out.
00:18:45.000When it comes to Florida, I'm a little bit more worried about the gubernatorial race because I know some people down in Florida and I don't want them to have to move.
00:18:56.000I think that Rick Scott can pull it out.
00:19:26.000I think everybody campaigned really hard down there.
00:19:28.000But you're going to look at a lot of especially getting hit with the hurricane, the way that, you know, Rick Scott handled the hurricane and all of that.
00:19:37.000I think Floridians will remember that and and hopefully vote for Rick Scott.
00:19:41.000But everybody's doing down ballot this this time.
00:20:00.000We have 3,223,000 for Gillum, 3,209,000 for DeSantis, and it looks like there's a few districts left in the panhandle, which is usually typically red.
00:22:23.000I'll wait for the live chat to let us know if the audio has been fixed.
00:22:28.000That's the problem, you know, it's not like I don't have a producer of a certain Semitic persuasion, so we don't really have the resources to tell me what's going on with the audio, but we'll figure it out here.
00:23:01.000Luckily, we still have Rob Porter, but there was absolutely zero campaigning going on from Renesi, from what I could see just in the Cincinnati area.
00:23:25.000And then I never heard from him again, so I don't know what was going on with her in AC Campaign, but I kind of figured that one was, it was a long shot anyway.
00:24:00.000Yeah, why don't I It must be your OBS might have to restart man.
00:24:04.000I'm I have no idea why it's But how could there be a delay?
00:24:11.000Oh because they're you You know, maybe it's everybody else maybe it's everybody watching the stream Maybe you need to get your computers fixed Everybody maybe you need to figure that one out
00:24:26.000What a night for it to go bust on me, right?
00:24:29.000Every other night I think you were doing alright.
00:24:31.000Maybe if I switch to my other microphone, will that make it better?
00:25:08.000OBS actually did just do an update just recently as I usually do, but I'll bet if you restarted your computer that's what it is, but I'm not sure how to do that.
00:25:24.000I like how the analysis has shifted away from Ohio, Florida to, you know, let's analyze the audio transmission here.
00:27:11.000That Florida, that's what's gonna kill us, honestly, and it scares me because that was an election that used to be winnable, and increasingly I think it's not winnable for Republicans anymore because of the demographic situation.
00:28:06.000Yeah, and I remember there was that big, that was what that whole New York Times article was about by, was it Michelle Goldberg?
00:28:13.000And she was talking about how Georgia was going to be the opportunity for the coalition of the ascendant to show white people that it's not their country anymore.
00:29:11.000But yeah, that Brian Kemp is doing well to me is exciting because I think that reflects possibly what the turnout is looking like across the country.
00:29:21.000I think that's going to have some kind of an effect there.
00:30:46.000And I mean, just the fact that Donald Trump only won the state of Texas by nine percent and that probably Ted Cruz will win by around eight percent or something like that.
00:30:55.000Shows us that demographics matter because we were winning Texas like 23% you know 24% before and You're gonna see Texas 23 go blue probably in the congressional in the house race You're gonna see you Dallas County used to be Always red until the demographics completely shifted in Dallas County and now that's always going to be blue it's almost the same thing like with California and
00:31:35.000One thing I wanted to bring up, actually, is I had seen in Florida that the exit polls, which are always garbage, black voters were up 6% for the GOP than what we're used to.
00:33:31.000Oh, I was going to say, Vince, you're going to have to take that one over, because the way that I'm looking at it, Indiana is a little bit more, I guess, red than Ohio.
00:33:44.000We've got Sherrod Brown, we've got Rob Porter, so we kind of like to split our stuff.
00:34:23.000When it comes to the House in Ohio, I mean, we've got a lot of Republicans interested in what happens in Virginia, quite frankly, than Indiana and Ohio.
00:34:35.000I just care about my districts and, you know, my governor, and it kind of looks like, at least right now, Richard Cordray might pull this one off.
00:37:16.000But we've got, before we have to do that, we've got a screenshot coming from FiveThirtyEight, where now the Democrats only have five and nine chance of controlling the House.
00:37:27.000So Nate Silver's possibly in for another bad hair day.
00:37:31.000Check this out before we restart, if we are planning on doing that.
00:38:23.000Nick is the only one delayed, they're saying.
00:38:29.000But how could they know if you're the only one delayed?
00:38:32.000In the context of the conversation, is it I'm talking, and then you start talking while I'm talking, indicating that it's me that's delayed, or is it the other way around?
00:38:43.000Because I can adjust it, I can offset the sync of the different audio components, and I can fix it without rebooting.
00:38:51.000But in order to do that, I need to know who's behind and by how much.
00:39:27.000I just went in the other room and asked the lady watching it, and she said that when you come back, you're talking over us, and then when you say something, it takes us a long time.
00:39:40.000That's why they were saying that Nick was interrupting all the time.
00:43:23.000Maybe they're just fucking around, who knows?
00:44:36.000Okay okay I just listened to it the delay is like it's like 10 seconds and I don't know how to fix it here so let me let me jump in I'm gonna mess around with that we're gonna play around it's the it's honestly it's
00:44:54.000Dude, do you think, like, if I restart the computer, it will change how much processing capacity- I can get it to restart your computer, bro.
00:45:00.000Well, now that I'm re- The computer will say to itself... Now that I'm restarted, I'm finding... No, but you've had, like, streams where you've had guests on, and the discord, and things like that, and it's completely fine.
00:46:16.000So which I don't get it half the people are saying more what's good now half are saying it's not Not fixed not fixed Are we back kick gas started jumped a bit rate up a little bit.