00:00:20.000Tonight, we are covering the primaries in the 2022 midterm elections, in particular, some very, very important races in Arizona, Washington State, Michigan, Missouri, and Kansas.
00:00:35.000So, our feature story tonight, we'll be watching the results of those elections come in live, and hopefully, we get results in all the races that we're watching tonight.
00:00:48.000I'm going to go as long as I can, and hopefully, we'll get some certainty about the ones that we're interested in.
00:00:55.000But that'll be our coverage tonight watching the live results and talking a little bit about their significance as they come in.
00:01:04.000We actually just got a huge call right before.
00:01:10.000Arizona's 9th district primary, congressional Republican primary, has been called for Representative Paul Gosar, the incumbent, which is one of the races we're watching.
00:01:22.000Obviously, that's our favorite, or one of our favorite congressmen in the United States Congress.
00:01:28.000And him winning the primary all but secures his seat as he will sail to reelection easily in the general.
00:01:49.000But it looks like we're going to get some other big victories tonight with Carrie Lake in Arizona, who is running for the Republican nomination for governor, as well as Blake Masters running for the Republican nomination for the Senate, as well as Wendy Rogers running in her district for the Republican nomination for Senate.
00:02:14.000The entire Arizona America First delegation is on its way to a total, resounding, complete victory.
00:02:22.000But we'll be watching all that as the official results come in, and that'll be later.
00:02:27.000Our first story, though, we're going to talk about Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, and that's something that's been going on now for the past few days.
00:02:37.000I was doing that debate on Modern Day Debate, which I'll talk a little bit about that before we get into the news.
00:02:45.000And so, before we get into our coverage of the primary results, we're going to kill a little bit of time while we wait for those.
00:02:51.000I think the polls are all closed, but we have to wait for the votes to come in and for them to be counted.
00:02:57.000And so, in the meantime, we're going to talk about Nancy Pelosi, who is on the highest profile visit of a U.S. diplomat or a U.S. government official to Taiwan in 25 years.
00:03:10.000And if you've been watching the news, you see that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei last night.
00:03:19.000And this is an extremely contentious move, major provocation to China.
00:03:26.000And so she's there against the wishes of the White House, obviously against the wishes of China.
00:03:33.000And people are watching very closely what China's response will be to that, if anything.
00:03:38.000They're already conducting massive military drills all around Taiwan, as well as sending fighter jets over the strait that separates China from Taiwan.
00:03:54.000I was planning on doing a show last night, but this debate that I was on just went all night.
00:04:00.000And so I told you last week that I would be on this debate with Lauren Southern, Alex Stein, and then some other people who I don't even really know who most of them were Stardust, and ultimately Destiny wound up joining the panel.
00:04:18.000So I was planning on doing the debate last night, and if it ended early, I was going to go on and do a show, but the debate started at 8 o'clock Central.
00:05:39.000While I'm fixing my hair, looking at Washington.
00:05:42.000Looks like maybe not going so well there, but we're going to wait and see.
00:05:47.000So, anyway, before we get into all of that news, I want to talk a little bit about the debate, but not too much.
00:05:54.000It was a long debate, three and a half hours.
00:05:57.000So, I don't know how many of you tuned in last night, but it looked like we had a pretty good turnout between all the platforms.
00:06:03.000It looked like we had close to 10,000 people watching the debate between Lauren Southern, Destiny, Baked Alaska, Modern day debate, Stardust, everybody streaming it looked like we were getting about 10,000 live viewers, which makes it one of the bigger streams we've done in a long time.
00:08:44.000I said, I thought I was supposed to be arguing against Lauren Southern.
00:08:48.000And she goes, I know, right, Souri, blah, And then she's all nice to me.
00:08:54.000Then she's like, Well, that's a really interesting perspective, and let me ask you some questions and all this.
00:09:02.000And I'm not gonna, you know, if she's gonna be friendly, we've never engaged directly in a hostile way.
00:09:10.000I'm not gonna, if she comes on the debate and says, hey, you know, and she's sort of friendly and flirty, I'm not gonna be like, all right, well, you know what, you're ugly.
00:09:20.000So it kind of disarmed me, it was disarming.
00:09:23.000And she's on my team, I'm there to win, I'm there to kill.
00:12:12.000I thought it was sort of Some interesting back and forth, and I saw some people were saying that it was a waste of time and it was kind of like a bad format to have a lot of these people that nobody really knows.
00:12:26.000Like, there was this anarchist guy, this bearded guy, I don't even know his name, and I don't really know anything about him.
00:12:34.000And he was on there just talking and talking, and people in the audience are like, This is just a waste of time.
00:14:21.000You know, at one point, anyway, so that was a weird situation.
00:14:24.000But anyway, but this trans guy jumps in at the very end.
00:14:29.000This is just to show you how ridiculous the debate is.
00:14:31.000And he's making these arguments about, oh, well, the reason the wage gap between men and women exists is because men and women choose different jobs.
00:14:58.000He unironically is saying at the end, at the three hour mark, well, the reason there's a pay gap is because it's looking at all of men and women, and men and women make different decisions.
00:15:11.000So you're not comparing apples to apples, it's apples to oranges because men choose high paying jobs and women choose low paying jobs.
00:15:26.000So, the subject is not really the important stuff.
00:15:29.000I mean, that's fun and all, and that's the reason for the debate, but it was such a silly debate, or at least the questions posed were sort of silly.
00:15:41.000And anyway, so that was that, but it was a fun debate.
00:15:47.000I think it's sort of a good thing we have going with modern day debate.
00:15:51.000Maybe we'll see if we could get him on Cozy, because I know there are some limitations, because he is on Twitch, he is on YouTube, they have very restrictive terms of service.
00:16:00.000So, maybe we could get him on Cozy and make it like a regular thing because it's fun.
00:16:07.000You know, the last one we had with Alex Stein was really fun.
00:17:13.000And it looks like, and this is interesting, with 57% reported in Washington's 3rd district, no call, but it looks like Joe Kent is in last place.
00:17:27.000He is behind both the Democrat as well as the Republican incumbent.
00:17:31.000So we're watching that one very closely.
00:17:38.000So, anyway, so I want to move quickly through this week and get to that.
00:17:42.000But our first story is about Taiwan, and I'm sure you've seen this.
00:17:45.000Nancy Pelosi, we're all watching and waiting for her to get shot out of the sky by China, and unfortunately that didn't happen.
00:17:53.000But Nancy Pelosi is on an official visit to Taiwan, and this is supposed to be some kind of really symbolic rebuke of not just Chinese aggression in Asia, but also it's a rebuke of autocracy.
00:18:13.000And it is supposed to be some really important message about America's solidarity with democracies.
00:18:22.000And the backstory behind this, behind China and Taiwan, we can get into that a little bit first to set the stage.
00:18:31.000So in 1949, the communists win the Chinese Civil War and they take over the Chinese mainland, ruling from Beijing.
00:18:41.000The nationalists take over Taiwan, and Taiwan and China split.
00:18:47.000In 1949, and they're two separate governments, but they both call themselves China.
00:18:55.000So the communists rule mainland China from Beijing, and the nationalists rule the island of Taiwan, which is just off the coast of China from Taipei in Taiwan.
00:19:06.000And they both claim to be the legitimate government of China.
00:19:11.000The communists in Beijing say that we are China and we rule Taiwan, but we're sort of permitting them to exist.
00:19:19.000And Taiwan says that they're China, that they actually have a claim to all of China, even mainland China, but that they are the government in exile.
00:19:31.000And so this is a diplomatic row which has been going on ever since 1949.
00:19:36.000And the official U.S. policy, which goes back about 50 years, and this is all technical diplomatic stuff, the official American policy towards Taiwan and China is what's called the One China policy.
00:19:51.000And so formally, they recognize Beijing as the legitimate China and the government in Beijing as a legitimate government of China.
00:20:01.000But indirectly and quietly, and you could say almost clandestinely, they support the government of Taiwan diplomatically as well as militarily and economically.
00:20:13.000And so we do trade with Taiwan and we've given them defensive military capabilities and we have given them something like a security guarantee.
00:20:56.000Which is relevant historically is what is going on this year in Eastern Europe.
00:21:01.000And I've said this on the show before, so I'm not going to go into great detail.
00:21:06.000But of course, this year, in February of this year, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.
00:21:13.000And this represents a very similar situation, not perfectly, but similar enough to what is happening right now between the United States and China over Taiwan.
00:21:28.000In the war in Ukraine, you have a very powerful, you could say a superpower, which is antagonistic towards the United States and Russia.
00:21:38.000You have Ukraine, which, by a sort of diplomatic technicality, is effectively and formally independent from Russia, but that's not truly acknowledged by Russia.
00:21:50.000It's sort of reluctantly acknowledged by Russia, and Russia has always wanted Ukraine, as well as the other former Soviet Union countries, returned under the control of Moscow.
00:22:02.000And so, in the same way that Russia is a great power antagonistic to the United States, so is China.
00:22:09.000And in the same way that Ukraine became independent by a fluke in 1991, in a way that Russia regrets and is reluctant to acknowledge, it's a very similar situation with Taiwan, where it's a military fluke that Taiwan became effectively independent in 1949.
00:22:28.000And this is regrettable in the opinion of the Chinese, and they have designs to take Taiwan back.
00:22:37.000Proxy conflict going on, where over the years the United States has given increasing support to Ukraine as a proxy of American influence and exerted both hard and soft power in Ukraine, giving them defensive military capabilities as well as pouring money into Ukraine through NGOs and through the State Department to prop up a sham democracy as a bulwark against Russian power in the region.
00:23:03.000In the same way that the United States is doing to the so called democratic government of Taiwan.
00:23:08.000Pouring in defensive military capabilities, supporting with NGOs, and so on.
00:23:14.000And in both cases, these represent fault lines of the old American hegemonic world order, which are changing as a result of Russia and China rising relatively in the world against the United States.
00:23:33.000In the 1990s, the United States could exert its influence right up to the formal borders of former great powers like Russia and China.
00:23:44.000The United States could effectively extend and project power right up to Russia's border, its Russian Ukraine border, by exerting control over Ukraine.
00:23:54.000And it could do the same to China, right up to their maritime border with Taiwan, and do things that are provocative and do things that are against the sovereignty, the claimed sovereignty of Russia and China.
00:24:08.000As Russia and China have risen economically and militarily over the last 30 years, they're able to push back against America's borders.
00:24:18.000Against America's claimed borders, its projected power to the furthest reaches of the globe.
00:24:25.000And where are they going to push back?
00:24:27.000Russia will push back in Ukraine by taking Crimea in 2014 and trying to claim control over the Donbass since 2014.
00:24:38.000And how is China exerting its newfound power, relative power, against the United States?
00:24:44.000It's going to do so in the South China Sea and in Taiwan.
00:24:49.000So that's the recent history, and that's the setup for the trip and why this is relevant.
00:24:54.000Now, when Russia invaded Ukraine, this was a major challenge to American global hegemony.
00:25:00.000America says we defend democracies globally, and we defend Ukraine, and we stand for liberalism globally.
00:25:07.000And so, if Russia attacks Ukraine, this is an attack on America's claim in Ukraine, America's claim to defend democracies and sovereignty worldwide.
00:25:19.000And that's a major blow then to America's credibility.
00:25:23.000And all these other borderlands, all these other countries where America is pushing to the furthest reaches and projecting power to the furthest extent that it can right up against the borders of its adversaries, those other democratic proxy states are going to say, well, if Russia could invade Ukraine, what would stop Iran from invading Israel?
00:25:44.000What would stop China from invading Taiwan?
00:25:46.000What would stop any belligerent rogue state from attacking its neighbors?
00:25:52.000So now, because America has taken unequivocally a major loss with this ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, they've got to kind of recapture the initiative and restore their credibility and their image in the world by bolstering Taiwan.
00:26:11.000That's the backdrop of the visit from Nancy Pelosi into Taiwan.
00:26:56.000So, in the midst of all this, Nancy Pelosi. Is visiting Taiwan, and it's a very provocative move.
00:27:03.000No similarly high ranking government official from America has visited Taiwan in 25 years.
00:27:11.000The last time an American government official of that stature visited Taiwan, it was when Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan 25 years ago, when he was the Speaker of the House.
00:27:23.000And it's very symbolic in a way, because 25 years ago, in 1997, you could say that the United States was at or near its peak.
00:28:22.00025 years ago, Russia was poor and corrupt and violent, and President Putin had not been elected yet, and it was basically a fire sale where the sham democracy there was selling off all the state assets to.
00:28:40.000Oligarchs and foreign powers, and basically the entire country of Russia, was being looted because the collapse of the Soviet Union left them very vulnerable to foreign influence in the form of foreign governments and foreign investors.
00:29:18.000Their relative and absolute global firepower has increased substantially.
00:29:25.000Their standard of living, their economy has increased substantially, and they've reasserted their sovereignty over Ukraine.
00:29:32.000Similarly, 25 years later, China, because of free trade policies, is vastly richer, now has about 80% of the United States' productive economic capacity.
00:29:58.000It says, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan late Tuesday, becoming the highest ranking American official in 25 years to visit the self ruled island claimed by China, which quickly announced that it would conduct military maneuvers in retaliation for her presence.
00:30:15.000Pelosi flew in aboard a U.S. Air Force passenger jet.
00:30:19.000And she was greeted on the tarmac at Taipei's International Airport by Taiwan's foreign minister and other Taiwanese and American officials.
00:30:28.000She posed for photos before her motorcade whisked her unseen into the parking garage of a hotel.
00:30:34.000Her visit ratcheted up tension between China and the United States because China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and it views visits by foreign government officials as recognition of the island's sovereignty.
00:30:50.000The governments of the world formally don't recognize Taiwan.
00:30:56.000And in doing so, if they had done that, it would upset China.
00:31:00.000China is a powerful, influential country, so states don't want to do that.
00:31:06.000They technically don't support Taiwan, but when, for example, the American government sends the Speaker of the House, which is the third or fourth in line for the presidency in terms of succession, it's almost like the United States is acting like Taiwan is legitimate.
00:31:25.000When we send the third or fourth in line for the presidency on an official visit, To a disputed territory, although we're not formally recognizing Taiwan, that's the kind of thing that you would do to a formally recognized state, to a sovereign state.
00:32:02.000It says the Biden administration and Pelosi says that the United States remains committed to the so called One China policy, which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taiwan.
00:32:15.000The speaker framed the trip as part of a broader mission at a time when, quote, the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.
00:32:24.000Her visit comes after she led a congressional delegation to the Ukrainian capital of Kiev in the spring, and it serves as a capstone to her many years of promoting democracy abroad.
00:32:35.000The Biden administration did not explicitly urge Pelosi to call off her plans.
00:32:41.000It repeatedly and publicly assured Beijing that the visit did not signal any change in U.S. policy.
00:32:47.000Soon after Pelosi's arrival, China announced a series of military operations and drills, which followed promises of, quote, resolute and strong measures if Pelosi went through with her visit.
00:32:59.000The People's Liberation Army said the maneuvers would take place in the waters and skies near Taiwan and includes the firing of long range ammunition in the Taiwan Strait.
00:33:11.000China said, This action is a solemn deterrent against the recent major escalation of negative actions of the United States on the Taiwan issue and a serious warning to the Taiwan independence forces seeking independence.
00:33:29.000Twenty six Republican lawmakers issued a statement of rare bipartisan support for the Democratic speaker.
00:33:35.000The statement called trips by members of Congress to Taiwan routine.
00:33:40.000And Mitch McConnell. Backed Pelosi's visit as a display of support for Taiwan's democracy and said any allegations that her itinerary was provocative were utterly absurd.
00:33:53.000So, I mean, we don't need to go into too much more detail, but that's the story, and this is where we're at.
00:33:59.000Nancy Pelosi is going to Taiwan in a very desperate bid to shore up the American posture and American stature in the world.
00:34:12.000And all this rhetoric about autocracy and democracy, it's a thinly veiled barb at Russia, it's a threat to China.
00:34:19.000The details are not really extremely important.
00:34:23.000What matters is the changing global landscape, which is a very general, very broad thing, which has been going on for 30 years.
00:34:32.000And it's understandable, I think, why the U.S. government would undertake this kind of a play.
00:34:38.000This is supposed to be a very tactful, Diplomatic maneuver to try to deter Chinese military intervention in Taiwan.
00:34:48.000And the reason they're doing that, this is not a maneuver that is born out of strength.
00:34:55.000The United States and China and Taiwan and Russia and Ukraine and every country in the world is acutely aware of what is at stake in Ukraine.
00:35:10.000Russia, by invading Ukraine against the wishes of the United States, against their empty threats, against their idle posturing, And Russia continuing the invasion of Ukraine in spite of sanctions from NATO of an unprecedented nature,
00:35:28.000in spite of NATO and American military support of Ukraine, diplomatic support of Ukraine, what that represents is a stark rejection that America retains any semblance of global hegemony or control over the world.
00:35:46.000If Russia can successfully invade Ukraine, Seize territory and do that against the wishes of the United States, and in spite of everything the United States tried to do to stop it, short of going to war, what does that communicate?
00:36:01.000It communicates that America and its threats are weak and empty, and the soft power that we think we can exert through sanctions and moral high ground and diplomacy is not what we say it is.
00:36:16.000And it also says that America is not willing to go to war with nuclear powers.
00:36:25.000Fringe meaning states that are on the periphery between the West and the antagonists against the West, which would be China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, to name a handful of them, to name the most important ones, North Korea.
00:36:42.000And so that's what's at stake in Ukraine.
00:36:44.000And every country is acutely aware of the significance of Russia's invasion with the sort of relative impunity they're getting away with it.
00:36:54.000And of course, because the situation in Taiwan is so analogous, well, the Chinese are saying, hey, if Russia can invade Ukraine, then we can invade Taiwan.
00:37:04.000Russia invaded Ukraine, and America was not willing to go to war.
00:37:09.000They were willing to send military means and tell Putin that he's very bad and impolite and sanction and so on, but they weren't willing to go to war.
00:37:20.000And probably the United States would not even be willing to do to China what they've done to Russia.
00:37:26.000The United States can sanction Russia because the United States is not really dependent on Russia.
00:37:32.000And the United States has sanctioned Russia all the time.
00:37:35.000They really can't do that to China because the United States is far more dependent on China than they are on Russia.
00:37:41.000And so in Beijing, they're saying look, Russia invaded Ukraine.
00:37:46.000And even as crazy as the neocons are in the United States, they're not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine.
00:37:53.000They're not going to intervene directly, or at least.
00:37:56.000Publicly, they're not going to intervene directly.
00:37:59.000And the sanctions, even the minimal things they are doing to fight Russia, they couldn't even do that to China.
00:38:07.000And they're not working against Russia anyway.
00:38:53.000And they know we know that they know that.
00:38:56.000And so they're provoking Taiwan and making preparations, probably to an extent that we're not even aware of, that maybe the U.S. intelligence agencies and Defense Department are aware of.
00:39:07.000And so the United States going out to Taiwan is like saying, okay, we're serious.
00:41:03.000And so it's actually a very symbolic closing chapter and epilogue to American hegemony because Nancy Pelosi can leave Taiwan and China could take it.
00:42:13.000And it's about this old, outdated, anachronistic balance of power that existed 30 years ago, led by the West and NATO, and what is happening now, which is the rise of.
00:42:27.000Block that maybe doesn't even have a ton of security interests in common and maybe should be natural adversaries and don't really have anything culturally in common.
00:42:36.000You think about Russia, China, and Iran.
00:42:41.000If anything, because of their proximity to each other, they actually have a lot to fight over in terms of the natural issue of radical Islam, where China is oppressing Muslims in Xinjiang and Iran is a Muslim state.
00:42:57.000And Russia has concerns about radical Islam in Central Asia and in the Caucasus.
00:43:02.000Also, China and Russia are fighting over Central Asia.
00:43:05.000And so there's all sort of natural contentions between these states, but they're being brought together.
00:43:12.000To negate Western power, they're being pushed into a coalition which really has no positive basis for existence, but rather a negation, a negative basis, which is that they're not America and they're not NATO and they're not the CIA and they're not the DOD and they're winning.
00:43:33.000Or at least they're creating and carving out a parallel society, a parallel global alliance that will exist next to and in coexistence with the United States and may eventually challenge the United States.
00:43:46.000States, in terms of its relative economic capacity, its productive capacity, and its firepower.
00:46:20.000Today is primary day in Missouri, Michigan, Kansas, Arizona, and Washington State.
00:46:26.000And these, if you don't know, primary races will determine the nominees.
00:46:31.000So, they will determine who's going to run for the Republicans and the Democrats in the various state and federal races and local races as well.
00:46:43.000And so, the ones that we're watching tonight, the reason we're giving some coverage of this tonight is because we've got some big races, a lot of consequential ones that we're watching.
00:46:53.000In particular, we are watching several races in Arizona, we're watching the Arizona governor race.
00:47:03.000We're watching the Arizona Senate primary.
00:47:06.000We're watching two Arizona congressional primaries.
00:47:11.000That's Arizona's first district and Arizona's ninth district.
00:47:14.000We're watching Michigan's third congressional district primary.
00:47:18.000And we're watching Washington State's third congressional district primary.
00:47:25.000And the reason that we're looking at all of those, and I'll go backwards this time, in Washington State, its third district, we're watching the Republican primary.
00:47:35.000Between the incumbent, which is Butler, who voted for Trump's impeachment last January.
00:47:42.000And notably, she is running against Heidi St. James as well as Joe Kent.
00:47:47.000And Joe Kent, we want to see lose tonight.
00:47:50.000But in Washington state, it's a little bit of a unique situation.
00:47:55.000And I'll scroll down to Washington state so we can look at their congressional primary results.
00:48:00.000So this is Washington's third district, congressional district for the congressional race.
00:48:10.000And what that means is that in some states, like Illinois, for example, the Republicans will select a nominee and the Democrats will select a nominee, and voters will go in and they will vote for a Republican to represent the Republicans in the general election, and the Democrats will go in and they'll vote for a Democrat to represent them as a nominee in the general election.
00:48:33.000And it's guaranteed that a Republican and a Democrat will compete and one of them will win.
00:48:38.000In Washington state, in this congressional primary that we're watching, it's an open primary.
00:48:45.000That is different from the kind of primary that I've just described because in this one, the top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation or party membership, the top two vote getters will go out into the general to face off against one another.
00:49:02.000So you could have two Republicans as the top two vote getters.
00:49:06.000The two Republicans could win the most votes.
00:49:09.000And then you could have two Republicans facing off in the general election, two Republican nominees in the same general, ensuring a Republican wins.
00:49:17.000You could have a Republican and a Democrat.
00:49:19.000And structurally, that is the favorite outcome because left leaning Republicans and Democrats will vote for the Democrat, and right wing people, their vote will be split between several Republicans.
00:49:34.000And so, consequently, it's almost structured so that the most likely outcome will be Democrats with the number one vote getter because all the liberals rally around.
00:49:49.000One Democrat candidate, so the Democrat candidate will get all the liberals, and you'll get a runner up who's a Republican because the conservative vote will be split between several Republican candidates.
00:50:03.000And so in this race, what we're really looking at is who is going to be the runner up.
00:50:08.000We can almost certainly say that the Democrat will be in the general, that the Democrat, which is Marie Perez, she'll capture all of the liberals and therefore probably capture a plurality of all the voters in the primary.
00:50:23.000And then the conservative vote, which will be split between the incumbent, Butler, Joe Kent, and Heidi St. John, all Republicans, and Vicki Kraft to some extent.
00:50:34.000The runner up will be the Republican that gets the most conservative votes out of a crowded Republican field.
00:50:42.000And so this race is very relevant to us.
00:50:45.000I'm not going to go into too much detail because I want to introduce all the races.
00:50:49.000But this race is very relevant to us because Joe Kent is.
00:50:54.000A candidate who has received major support from the MAGA movement, and he's received a tremendous amount of support from outside the district.
00:51:11.000And although he's a very popular candidate nationally, and he's a very popular candidate in very right wing Trump supporting circles, this is a district.
00:52:09.000He said that he's not in favor of Christian nationalism.
00:52:12.000He's not in favor of Christianity or nationalism.
00:52:15.000He's in favor of inclusive populism, which means something like non Christians and non whites, along with whites and Christians, coming together based on the fact that they are poor, coming together based on class.
00:52:31.000And uniting against rich people, as opposed to Christian nationalists who would say they're asserting a specific kind of American culture and identity and asserting a particular religion, and with really a more revolutionary view of America,
00:52:46.000that we need to look not just at competing classes, but about who we are and what it means to be an American and what America is based on and what America will be in the future at the fundamental level, at the level of demographics, culture, religion, law, and so on.
00:53:05.000So, the reason this race matters very much is because we have told people not to vote for Kent.
00:53:13.000You know, we've undertaken some initiatives.
00:53:16.000America Firsters have undertaken some initiatives to try to get Joe Kent to lose because that would represent that his brand of inclusive populism is not going to hijack this moment, will not hijack the battle over Trump's succession, will not triumph over Christian nationalism.
00:53:34.000He went against Christian nationalism, and so as a consequence, he needs to lose.
00:53:39.000That's why we're interested in this race, because of that significance.
00:54:15.000So it's not called yet, but it doesn't look very favorable.
00:54:19.000And then also, we were watching Arizona and its 9th congressional district Republican primary, where Paul Gosar was running against a crowded Republican field.
00:54:30.000And you could see this race has already been called, and it's not just a victory for Paul Gosar, but it's a decisive victory.
00:54:41.00063% of votes counted, and Representative Paul Gosar, the incumbent, the Republican, the legendary America Firster, Has won with a decisive lead of 63% in a field with four Republicans.
00:55:00.000Four Republicans, and he not only won, he didn't get a plurality, he didn't get a majority, he got a super majority, which is a major rebuke because, and this race is very important, because Paul Gosar, because he is one of the most America First congressmen, he is one of the most targeted Republicans in Congress.
00:55:20.000Paul Gosar gets no support from D.C., he gets no support.
00:56:31.000Output transcript Out of his seat through the primary.
00:56:33.000This is going to be a safe Republican seat, whoever wins the primary, but they redrew it so that it would be more competitive for him.
00:56:41.000So Paul Gosar wins tonight, and we don't know what the final total is because not all the votes are in, but it looks like he is ahead with a commanding lead with most of the votes in.
00:56:52.000Major rebuke, again, not just to DC, but also to the state party.
00:56:59.000Major rebuke to the Republican establishment, major rebuke to Democrats.
00:58:09.000And he's got a great chief of staff over there and a great comms team and really talented, skilled people.
00:58:16.000And we love everybody there, they're all good people.
00:58:18.000Paul Gossar, a very strong Catholic as well, in addition to being an America firster.
00:58:23.000Christian nationalist, America firster.
00:58:25.000And just like Martin, and by the way, this is the last thing I'll say and then we'll move on.
00:58:31.000This is the second congressperson to win by a commanding lead their primary after attending AFPAC 3.
00:58:41.000I'm just going to throw that out there.
00:58:44.000Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who attended and spoke at AFPAC 3 this year, and she took a lot of heat for that.
00:58:50.000She earlier this year won her primary in Georgia with a substantial lead, total blowout.
00:58:58.000She was fine, and she's going to go on and win the general.
00:59:01.000It's going to be a safe Republican seat.
00:59:04.000And now, August 2nd, that means that two, two, count them, two Republican congresspeople who spoke at AFPAC 3 have decisively won Republican primaries where they had a crowded primary field with several challengers.
00:59:21.000With a commanding lead in spite of opposition from the left and from outside money coming in from DC and from the establishment.
00:59:44.000Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar, Christian nationalism, America First, they're probably more in line with us than anybody else in Congress.
00:59:52.000And they probably have more opposition from the left and from the right than anybody else in Congress.
00:59:58.000And both of them kicked ass up and down their district.
01:00:01.000It didn't matter that money came in and challengers came out.
01:00:06.000And that is because America First and Christian nationalism is the future of the party.
01:00:12.000It's where the base is, it's where the constituents are.
01:00:16.000America First, this movement, me, AFPAC, MTG, GOATS are, Trump, MAGA, Alex Jones, Tucker Carlson.
01:00:27.000So that's a huge, huge victory, not just for Gosar, who we wish him our most heartfelt congratulations, but also a huge victory for the movement across the country and for all of us and for the Groypers.
01:00:43.000You go to AFPAC 3 and you win your election.
01:00:48.000I don't know that anybody who is at AFPAC 3, at least as an incumbent, I know McGeehan, she lost a pretty tough uphill battle for Idaho governor, but that Really had nothing to do with us.
01:01:02.000But as far as Representative Green and Gosar, they're golden.
01:01:07.000So you're basically, you could go to AFPAC 3 and that improves your odds, I think.
01:01:11.000You could go to AFPAC 3 and your odds are better because the voters are begging for it.
01:01:15.000The voters go out there, and this was really a referendum on AFPAC 3.
01:01:19.000Voters are going out there and they're saying, Paul Gosar, you went to AFPAC 3, we support you.
01:01:24.000Thank you for standing up for Nick Fuentes.
01:01:28.000Among other things, he's a great congressman.
01:01:31.000But they're also going out there and certainly they're saying, God bless you, Representative Gosar.
01:02:25.000I don't really have any kind of personal relation.
01:02:30.000But Representative Gibbs, not Representative, he was, I think he worked in housing and urban development under Ben Carson and the Trump admin.
01:02:41.000His background is he comes from, I believe, Harford, and then he was a developer at Apple.
01:02:46.000And then he worked in HUD under Ben Carson and the Trump admin.
01:02:51.000So, John Gibbs going up against Peter Meyer, the incumbent.
01:06:10.000And he won the election, but he lost the presidency because of funny business that was carried out in contested states that just so happened to be controlled by Republican state legislatures and governors.
01:06:27.000Five, I think it's five out of the six, or four out of the five contested states have Republican state legislatures in Arizona, in Pennsylvania, in Georgia.
01:06:41.000In Michigan, and I think in Wisconsin too.
01:06:44.000I'm not, it's been a long time, so I don't remember.
01:06:48.000My recollection isn't perfect on that.
01:06:51.000But in most of the contested states, they had Republican legislatures, and in most of those states, they had Republican governors as well.
01:06:59.000And of course, the state legislatures control the election process.
01:07:06.000Even though the presidency is a federal office, it is the state legislatures that determine the rules, and it's the governors that enforce the rules.
01:07:13.000Pertaining to the statewide elections that are being held, statewide elections, even for federal offices.
01:07:19.000And so, Kerry Lake becoming the governor, very, very important because Arizona is one of these states.
01:07:24.000It was a battleground state in 16, it was a battleground state in 2020.
01:07:29.000It's going to be a battleground state in 2024.
01:07:32.000And we need an America First Trump Republican as the governor so that if there's any funny business, we can see to it that the election is corrected.
01:07:44.000And if you think that that doesn't matter, some people say, oh, they cheat anyway.
01:07:55.000And I'll give you a perfect example of this.
01:07:57.000In 2018, in the statewide race in Florida, there was major election fraud in the race for governor and in a few other races.
01:08:09.000And at the time, Governor Rick Scott, who's now a senator, Generally, I think one of the better Republicans.
01:08:18.000I don't know that he's completely on side, but he is one of the better ones, I think.
01:08:23.000Governor Rick Scott, at the time, governor of Florida, Republican, he went in there, he looked into the fraud, he investigated it, the election was corrected, and the right result was delivered.
01:08:35.000I think that delivered the governorship to Ron DeSantis.
01:08:39.000And again, maybe the details aren't perfect on that because it's a long time ago, and now we're going four years back.
01:08:45.000But the point is, the governor makes a difference.
01:08:49.000And it doesn't just matter that they are Republican because Doug Ducey, who is the governor of Arizona, he's a Republican.
01:08:58.000And Karen Fan, who is a leader in the Republican state legislature, she was a Republican.
01:09:03.000And Doug Ducey and Karen Fan conspired in 2020 to overthrow Trump.
01:09:09.000And they took the illegitimate election results and they gave the electors to Biden, even though the Republican state legislature was in revolt, even though Republican voters were in revolt, didn't matter.
01:09:20.000That they had a Republican legislature and a Republican speaker and a Republican governor.
01:09:25.000It doesn't just matter the party affiliation, it matters who they are.
01:09:29.000So that's why this race is very important.
01:10:24.000But then you've also got Jim Lamone and Mark Brnovich and Michael McGuire and Justin Olson.
01:10:31.000And this one is going to be a little bit more contested.
01:10:35.000We don't know who's going to win the Senate seat, Republican or Democrat, in the general election.
01:10:42.000This is a big one because Blake Masters is one of the most right wing America First Republicans running for Senate.
01:10:51.000If Blake Masters becomes the nominee and if he wins the Senate seat, that would make him on January 6, 2023, the most right wing America First member of the U.S. Senate.
01:11:07.000And that is more right wing than any sitting Republican senator, more right wing than any incumbent Republican senator running, and that is more right wing than any Republican Senate candidate that is viable that is running.
01:11:29.000He's an old business partner of Peter Thiel's, and I believe the startup capital for his race and a lot of the endorsements and other things are the work of Peter Thiel.
01:11:42.000And if you've seen him in the debate performance against the other Republican candidates running in the primary, if you've seen what he said on Twitter and other places, he's Trump endorsed.
01:11:56.000This is a guy who is not just in substance America first, but he's also in some ways in style America first.
01:12:03.000He's more brash, he's more straight talking, he doesn't take debate from the left and disavow and play that whole game.
01:12:13.000And I'll say this too some people are skeptical of the influence of Peter Thiel in the Republican Party and in right wing politics.
01:12:21.000And by extension, Blake Masters, who's received a lot of support from Thiel, and Blake Masters, who is almost of the same ilk.
01:12:29.000Blake Masters is a Silicon Valley guy, like Peter Thiel.
01:12:33.000And I'll say this to people that are skeptical in politics, you have got many different factions who have their candidates and their interest and their influence.
01:12:44.000And some people might look at Peter Thiel and see a billionaire.
01:12:49.000And when people see a billionaire, they see money.
01:12:52.000And when they see Peter Thiel, who has created a hedge fund and been on the board of major publicly traded companies like Facebook, which is an SP 500 company, SP 500 company, when people see that, they see Wall Street or they see big money or they see something like that.
01:13:16.000But there is a notable distinction between Silicon Valley and Wall Street.
01:13:22.000There's a notable distinction between Silicon Valley and the more conventional players in politics.
01:13:28.000Silicon Valley is a separate institution.
01:13:32.000The billionaires of Silicon Valley and the companies they run and the culture of the companies and the culture of where they reside is fundamentally different from Wall Street.
01:13:42.000We call them Silicon Valley because they all live in the same place, they all live in San Francisco.
01:13:48.000And they call it Silicon Valley because they're all tech companies.
01:13:51.000And they're all tech companies located in San Francisco.
01:13:57.000But that matters because San Francisco is different from New York City.
01:14:03.000And tech companies are different from General Electric.
01:14:07.000And they're different from Lockheed Martin and JP Morgan.
01:14:10.000And the kinds of people, the billionaires and the companies and the people that work at those companies that run Facebook and PayPal and the others, they're a different kind of people than the people that work at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
01:14:27.000General Electric and the rest of them, all these sort of conventional Wall Street players, all the major blue chip stock companies.
01:14:37.000So I would say this don't be so quick to write off Peter Thiel.
01:14:43.000I will say for full disclosure, I've never gotten money from Peter Thiel.
01:14:47.000Peter Thiel is sort of, from my understanding, ambivalent towards us and towards me.
01:15:03.000And these are things that other people that we like have said as well and agree with.
01:15:09.000Silicon Valley, there's overlap, but it does, in a way that is not totally insignificant, differ from these other billionaires and from these other kinds of companies.
01:15:31.000Tech guys, particularly these sort of self starting, autodidactic, individualistic, entrepreneurial tech guys running tech companies in the valley.
01:15:42.000Some of them, like Zuckerberg, fit into the pattern of what we've seen before.
01:15:47.000They contribute and vote like Warren Buffett and like the other players.
01:15:52.000Elon Musk and Peter Thiel and some notable others, they're quite contrary to that trend.
01:15:58.000And so, anyway, so Blake Masters is a story not just about America First.
01:16:06.000And it's not even just a story about Peter Thiel's personal influence in the Republican Party, the Blake Masters contest is also a story about Silicon Valley and the kind of influence that these high powered, very intelligent tech people, billionaires or otherwise, are increasingly playing in American society and the role that they'll play in politics.
01:16:31.000Peter Thiel's obviously a right wing guy.
01:16:33.000Some say more libertarian, and maybe that was true 10 years ago.
01:16:37.000Now, definitely more nationalist and definitely more objectively right wing.
01:16:44.000We don't know necessarily what his endgame is and what his true, sincere beliefs are.
01:16:48.000And that's complicated by the fact that he's a Straussian.
01:16:51.000But we can look at the candidates that he backs and we can look at the things that he says and we can deduce that certainly it's a different play than Mark Zuckerberg is making.
01:17:00.000It's a different play than Warren Buffett is making.
01:17:02.000And he is of Silicon Valley, from Silicon Valley.
01:17:06.000And that is just another way that Silicon Valley is influencing society.
01:17:11.000And it's a changing society because it's a different elite.
01:17:14.000It's a different kind of people inhabiting the elite, exerting a different influence on the rest of the country.
01:17:22.000That's what we're going to learn from the Masters race the strength of Trump's endorsement, the strength of style and substance, America first, the strength of Peter Thiel's influence in the GOP, and the relative changing influence of Silicon Valley.
01:17:42.000The major ones that we're watching, we're also watching the Kansas Secretary of State race where Chris Kobach is running, although that one doesn't have a tremendous significance.
01:17:53.000Chris Kobach, he's an America first patriot, but he's got a lot of difficulty.
01:18:00.000If you don't know him, Kobach was lieutenant governor of Kansas from 2010 until 2018.
01:18:08.000He ran for Senate in 2018, and he lost.
01:18:12.000And actually, to rewind it a little bit, Chris Kobach, lieutenant governor of Kansas, he actually ran for Congress and lost, I think, in 2008.
01:18:21.000So he lost in 2008 for Congress, runs for lieutenant governor in 2010.
01:18:26.000And he's a patriot, anti immigration, very America first, very conservative.
01:18:32.000He serves two terms, and he was widely believed in 2016 to be on the shortlist to be Donald Trump's DHS secretary, his Homeland Security secretary.
01:18:46.000Many people thought after the transition in 2017 or even in 2018 or beyond that Chris Kobach was going to be a favorite to be DHS secretary in the Trump administration.
01:20:37.000The fact that Kansas is a relatively moderate state and is trending leftward, or maybe Chris Kobach struggles with campaigning because he's lost a lot of races.
01:20:49.000He lost in 08 for Congress, he lost in 18 for Senate, lost for Governor 20, and he didn't swing the DHS nomination.
01:21:09.000That's a race which I'm not watching as closely because it doesn't have a tremendous amount of significance outside of Chris Kobach's personal political ambitions.
01:21:44.000Very important that he clinched this nomination because just like the governor, the Secretary of State plays a very important role in the elections.
01:21:52.000So if we get Fincham as Secretary of State and if we get Kerry Lake as governor, very, very good combination heading into 2024.
01:22:01.000It's good for Arizona, but for people that are not in Arizona, it is very significant because a very good Secretary of State who is hit to election fraud and a very good governor who is the same way, very good outcome.
01:22:18.000The kinds of problems that we may see in 24.
01:22:22.000The kind of election fraud and the repeat of what we saw in 2020.
01:22:26.000Because if you've got Fincham and Kerry Lake, you can bet that Arizona's going to have a fair election, and that is a good thing for Trump.
01:22:43.000Looks like we also have an official call for Michigan, and this is not from the New York Times, but it looks like this is from another site.
01:22:50.000So, I don't know how reputable that is.
01:22:52.000Associated Press hasn't called it, but some are calling Michigan's third district for John Gibbs, which is our guy.
01:26:54.000I want to talk about this race in Missouri while we wait.
01:26:57.000I'm not going to be here all night, okay?
01:26:58.000I've already been here for a couple hours.
01:27:02.000But let me get into Missouri, and then I'm going to get into Washington's third again.
01:27:06.000Because there's one other race I didn't cover, which is not tremendously important.
01:27:10.000And this is Missouri's Senate primary, Republican Senate primary.
01:27:16.000Which has already been called earlier tonight.
01:27:19.000So, in the Republican primary for Missouri's U.S. Senate seat, we've got Eric Schmidt versus Eric Greitens.
01:27:28.000At least that was kind of the main contest going on here.
01:27:34.000And I never really had a very strong opinion on this race.
01:27:38.000Eric Schmidt and Eric Greitens were both Trump candidates, both claimed to be America first, both technically endorsed by Trump.
01:27:47.000And I'll tell you a funny story about this one.
01:27:50.000This is a race where Trump technically endorsed both candidates.
01:27:56.000Trump endorsed both Eric Gridens and Eric Schmidt because months ago, and you have to understand the economy of these races, every Republican in the country is fighting viciously for Trump's endorsement.
01:28:12.000They're fighting each other, they're fighting people at Mar a Lago, they're paying money, they're doing everything they can to get Trump's endorsement.
01:28:20.000And the Trump endorsement process is a circus.
01:29:30.000Donald Trump said in an official press release his official endorsement for Missouri's Senate Republican primary was that he endorsed Eric.
01:29:42.000But there are two people named Eric in that race, and both of them had a lot of support, and both of them support Trump.
01:29:54.000So nobody really knew he was talking about, and Trump never clarified, he never said which Eric he was talking about.
01:30:03.000And both Eric's, both Eric Greitens and Eric Schmidt, took that and said, Trump endorsed me.
01:30:16.000The results are actually sort of surprising that Greitens didn't even come in second because many were saying that he was going to win first place.
01:30:24.000But he's very unpopular in the Missouri Republican Party.
01:30:29.000And that's because Eric Greitens kind of shit the bed.
01:30:33.000Recently, he was forced to step down due to a major sex scandal where he was into some weird thing with his wife or he beat his wife or something.
01:30:59.000Trump endorsed Eric, and one of the Erics won.
01:31:02.000So, I didn't have very strong feelings about that, but that is the outcome of that one.
01:31:08.000Okay, and we have, before I move on, I want to talk about Joe Kent, but before I do, we have got an official call.
01:31:14.000Chris Kobach has won the nomination to represent the Republican Party as the nominee for Secretary of State in the state of Kansas, which is good.
01:31:28.000So, Chris Kobach almost certainly will go on to become Kansas Secretary of State, which doesn't have a ton of significance nationally, but.
01:31:40.000It does insofar as maybe this is the beginning of a big comeback by Chris Kobach, staging a comeback.
01:31:47.000If he could win the statewide office, maybe he makes another bid for governor or senate, or maybe he'll be tapped in the next Trump administration.
01:31:54.000I think certainly that's a possibility.
01:32:58.000I'm hearing some street level chatter.
01:33:01.000Okay, I'm hearing some on the ground reporting from some very high level sources, some very good friends of mine, that Joe Kent is losing badly.
01:33:11.000And if you take a look at the results here on Fox News, 56% of the vote counted.
01:33:16.000And it looks like Marie Perez, the Democrat, and the Republican incumbent, Jamie Butler, are in the lead.
01:33:24.000With 56% in, Joe Kent is in a distant third place with half the votes counted.
01:34:52.000This is about who and what will succeed Donald Trump and Trumpism in the Republican Party.
01:34:59.000So ever since Trump won in 2016, You have had succeeding generations in every cycle since, in 2018, in 2020, and now in 2022, of Republicans running for office and backing people running for office claiming to be the legitimate successors or spiritual successors to the Trump election.
01:35:20.000It's because Donald Trump is the most popular, most favored, most energetic, most successful Republican politician of this century and probably of our lifetimes, maybe Ronald Reagan notwithstanding.
01:35:33.000Although most people watching the show weren't born when Reagan was president.
01:35:38.000And a lot of them even after Reagan had died.
01:35:42.000Point being is everybody is lining up to get behind Trump.
01:35:48.000And just like a young girl getting in line to marry an old guy, they're all getting in line, not because they necessarily support Trump personally or what Trump stands for, but they're waiting in line for Trump to leave politics, for Trump to lose in 24, decline to run in 24.
01:36:06.000For Trump to win in 24 and bow out in 28, they're waiting in line to pick up the mantle after Trump leaves as the personal successor and the ideological successor.
01:36:18.000And who is going to inherit all of that influence and all that power and the significance that came with the Trump revolution?
01:36:27.000That's a question of the intervening years between 2020 and 2024 or 2020 and 2032.
01:36:35.000That's the preeminent question concerning Republicans.
01:36:38.000But more specifically, in this Interregnum between Trump leaving office in 20 and potentially regaining in 24.
01:36:46.000That's the number one thing for Republicans.
01:36:48.000Now, the significance of this race in Washington's third is about who or what is going to do that.
01:36:56.000Is it going to be the legitimate, logical conclusion of Trumpism, the true spirit of Trumpism, which is America first and Christian nationalism?
01:37:06.000When Donald Trump says he's speaking up for those that don't have a voice, when Donald Trump says America first, make America great again, do not listen to the false siren song of globalism, who embodies that?
01:37:19.000It's Gosar, it's Marjorie Taylor Greene.
01:37:59.000Joe Kent is here in 2022 claiming the mantle of Trumpism and claiming to be part of a new generation that will shape the post Trump GOP and says it's not about Christianity and it's not about race and it's not about white people and it's not about America first.
01:38:18.000Joe Kent comes on the scene and says the real future is inclusive populism.
01:38:23.000It's an inoffensive, cookie cutter, focus group tested, consulted, provided, and paid for brand of politics, which Republicans have really been pursuing for decades, which is once again making overtures to Hispanic and black voters that don't exist, which don't even exist in his district, ignoring right wing social issues and right wing positions on social issues,
01:38:51.000ignoring the historic character of the country.
01:38:55.000And ultimately, ignoring the foundation of right wing political thought, which is the Catholic Church and more broadly, Christianity.
01:40:06.000And so that's what's really at stake here.
01:40:08.000If Joe Kent loses this election, it shows all the support from Bannon, all the support from Tucker, the Trump endorsement, the outside money did not overwhelm the America First base.
01:40:50.000Joe Kent, inoffensive to everybody, even some other America firsters, even people we like, like Donald Trump.
01:40:56.000But he deeply offended the conscience of Christians.
01:41:00.000And he deeply offended the conscience of American patriots by pretending that America's identity is too divisive to campaign on.
01:41:08.000That's why we're campaigning, that's why we want to win.
01:41:12.000And the same goes for the Christian religion.
01:41:14.000That's the foundation of what it means to be right wing.
01:41:18.000And so, as a consequence, that should be the foundation of the Republican Party, which is the right wing party in America, or should be.
01:41:26.000And certainly, you can't claim to be part of the solution in making the Republican Party right wing if you're not right wing, if you don't obey the foundation of it, which is belief in God, the God.
01:41:38.000So, if Joe Kent loses tonight, never forget it's because of us.
01:41:44.000It's not because of anybody else, it's because of us.
01:43:16.000And the outcome of this race, even if it's close, is going to suggest that there are a lot more Groypers in the Republican Party than a lot of people fought.
01:43:28.000It will tell you the Groypers successfully went from internet live streams to the college campuses in 2019 to national politics and the Congress in 2022.
01:44:00.000Turning point submitted to the Groypers, and now they sound just like us.
01:44:05.0002022 is the year that the Groypers got involved, and guess what?
01:44:09.000Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar, that spoke at AFPAC 3, they crushed their primaries and they won, and they're the most popular Republicans in America.
01:44:18.000Joe Kent, campaigning against an impeachment incumbent with Trump's endorsement, on Tucker, on Bannon, supported by Revolver, supported by Teal, supported by Money.
01:44:29.000I mean, just about every kingmaker in Republican politics.
01:44:33.000Lost, may lose tonight, even if he wins by a slim majority.
01:44:39.000And that's because the Groypers are in.
01:45:03.000I'm going to take a look here in my politics desk and see if we have any other announcements.
01:45:08.000Doesn't look like we have any other major announcements, but we're going to take a look through and scan, see if there's any other major developments here.
01:45:17.000Looks like Fox News is still not called Michigan for John Gibbs, although others have said that it's over, so we'll see.
01:45:26.000And we'll take another look at Arizona.
01:45:36.000And it looks like still no call in the governor race, still no call in the Senate race either.
01:46:40.000I just got banned from another bank this week.
01:46:43.000US Bank, Chase Bank, Bank of America, this local bank in Chicago, which I thought was good.
01:46:49.000I'm blacklisted by Turning Point USA, the number one youth campus group in the country.
01:46:54.000I'm blacklisted by the GOP, hated by the left, dodged, targeted by Antifa, swatted, investigated by the FBI, subpoenaed by the Congress, put on the no fly list, my funds frozen, income destroyed.
01:47:09.000You go down the list, subject to disavowals, people associated with me disavowed, internal drama.
01:47:18.000Here we are, August 2022, and in spite of it all, America First is more influential than ever before.
01:47:27.000Here we are in the year 2022, five years in, a year after the sixth, a year after the censorship, after the debanking, after the financial sanction, and we held AFPAC 3, a conference with 1,200 people.
01:47:44.000And then, after everybody disavowed us and everybody disavowed our speakers and attendees, speakers went on and won their primaries, and the people that spoke against us are losing theirs.
01:47:58.000If that doesn't tell you the power of what we're doing, the uniqueness of what we're doing, I don't know what does.
01:48:04.000If none of that can stop America first, what can?
01:49:15.000And in this county, Joe Kent leading by 5%.
01:49:20.000Now, what it looks like to me, frankly, and this is Joe Kent's problem, this makes me optimistic, is that Butler is winning too many votes for Kent.
01:49:36.000Heidi St. John seems to be winning a lot of votes here.
01:49:43.000See here, like in this district, for example, Heidi St. John with 14% to Joe Kent's 18%.
01:49:54.000Heidi St. John with 23% to Joe Kent's 19%.
01:49:59.000In this district, Heidi St. John 21% to Joe Kent's 18%.
01:50:05.000In this district, now Joe Kent's got a little bit of a lead, 14 to 25, Heidi St. John, Joe Kent.
01:50:12.000In this district, 17, and this one, Joe Kent's a little bit stronger, but still 30 to 28 with Butler.
01:50:19.000And in this district, 30 to Perez's 25, and Butler's 20%.
01:50:24.000Now, that tells me, and here's the trick in this district here's a dynamic.
01:50:30.000You've got Perez, who's a Democrat, you've got Butler, who's a moderate Republican and the incumbent.
01:50:37.000You've got Joe Kent, who's considered an extreme right winger.
01:50:40.000He's considered the most right wing guy running.
01:50:43.000And then you've got St. John, who's somewhere in between Kent and Butler.
01:50:47.000And so there's sort of a race within a race happening where you've got the Democrat, who's going to be the number one or number two vote getter.
01:50:55.000And then it's a contest to see who is going to get the most Republican votes.
01:51:00.000That's one race who's going to be the number one Republican vote getter.
01:51:05.000And obviously, the Republican nomination is split.
01:51:08.000Between three candidates getting high vote totals, Butler, Kent, and St. John.
01:51:15.000Within that, though, so the Republicans are split between three candidates to go up against the Democrat.
01:51:22.000Within that, the Republicans are split, or you could say that the very conservative Republicans are split between Kent and St. John, where the question of who is going to be the top Republican vote getter.
01:51:41.000Butler is the moderate, and she's somebody the Democrats are going to vote for, and that this is a moderate district that a lot of the moderate Republicans will vote for.
01:51:51.000Almost certainly, she's the one to beat as the incumbent.
01:51:54.000And so, Joe Kent, maybe if he were running just against her, and if it was just Kent versus Butler, maybe he'd win.
01:52:03.000But it's almost like St. John is splitting the anti Butler vote within this Republican part of the race.
01:52:12.000Within the part of the race where you've got a Democrat as well.
01:52:16.000And so, anyway, so I don't know everything about this district, but from my understanding of the dynamic, is that for Joe Kent to really have a good chance, what he needed was for Heidi St. John to drop out and throw her support behind Kent.
01:53:17.000Is the Perez going to be the number one?
01:53:22.000And then the question of who comes next, it's going to be between these three Republicans.
01:53:26.000And this is largely so it's Perez versus whoever the Republican is.
01:53:30.000And whoever the Republican is, is largely a contest between Butler and Kent plus St. John.
01:53:36.000So, the extent that St. John is bigger, Kent is smaller.
01:53:40.000The extent that St. John is getting more of the anti Butler vote, she's getting more of the Kent vote.
01:53:46.000And to the extent that she's getting the Kent vote, she's preventing Kent, who's going to get more of the anti Butler vote, from getting more than Butler.
01:53:54.000And so, just based on that dynamic and my understanding of that dynamic, it looks like with 50% voting already, with 50% of the votes counted, St. John is performing, it seems, too well for Kent to overcome because this is 35%.
01:54:12.00035% of the votes so far are Republicans that don't like Butler.
01:55:01.000And to me, that seems like too much of a split.
01:55:03.000In other words, St. John is acting as a spoiler for Kent against Butler.
01:55:10.000And so, if she's getting 15 to 20, right, if she's getting 37% of the anti Butler Republican vote, that seems like there's not enough anti Butler Republicans to go around.
01:55:54.000If you're not familiar with this, this is one of the ways that we can assess the odds of political outcomes the betting markets, where you have Predicted and a few other forums where people can bet on who's going to win an election, what the polling number is going to look like for.
01:56:16.000Biden job approval, something like that.
01:56:19.000And the way it works is that people can vote yes and they could vote no.
01:56:23.000And so if I, and it's out of 100, and the shares are denominated in sort of like percentages.
01:56:29.000I don't know how it technically works.
01:56:32.000Okay, but here's what it means it means that if you think that a certain thing is going to happen, if you think that Butler is going to be in the top two, you can buy, you can bet that she will by buying a share of yes.
01:56:51.000So if I think that Butler's gonna win, I will buy a share of yes, I will say yes, and the best offer for that is 77 cents, redeemable if that contract is completed.
01:57:01.000If she does become the top two finisher, I could redeem that share for $1.
01:57:08.000And inversely, if I say no, she's not gonna be it, I could buy that share for 24 cents, and I could redeem that for a dollar if she does not finish in the top two.
01:57:20.000And so that means you're assigning obviously better betting odds for her being a top two vote getter because it's a lower payout, less risky, meaning more likely, versus that she's not going to do that.
01:57:35.000So, anyway, that's how it works if you don't know, if you've never seen predict it.
01:57:41.000Will Jamie Butler finish in the top two in the Washington primary?
01:57:46.000Meaning, essentially, Will she be effectively the Republican nominee?
01:57:52.000Because as we've established, Perez, as the Democrat, is going to be the number one vote getter, or the minimum number two.
01:57:59.000And so the real contest is between the Republicans and who's going to be the top Republican vote getter and then be number one or number two overall and face Perez in the general.
01:58:15.000The reason why is because this is not a district with a huge Republican advantage, so it's about 50 50.
01:58:22.000All the Democrats are going to vote for Perez, and the Republicans are voting for four different candidates.
01:58:29.000So, all the Democrats are going to outnumber some of the Republicans voting for one of four candidates.
01:58:37.000So, what the predicted market is really asking is who is going to be the top Republican vote getter?
01:58:44.000If Butler finishes in the top two, that means she's finishing in the top two almost certainly with the Democrat.
01:58:50.000That means that she essentially wins the primary as the Republicans.
01:58:54.000That's not exactly what's happening, but that's what's happening.
01:58:58.000So, what we're looking at here is the past 24 hours in this market.
01:59:03.000We're looking at the odds that this would happen in the last 24 hours.
01:59:07.000Currently, the betting markets give her a 77% chance of finishing in the top two.
01:59:15.000And this is based on the people investing in these markets, to some extent, have a knowledge of the district.
01:59:23.000I don't think people are betting in this market.
01:59:26.000And making big buys and sells if they're not political nerds and if they're not specifically political nerds acquainted with the details and the particulars of what these results mean, you know, these incomplete results mean.
01:59:39.000So that means that as the results have been counted, 24 hours ago, there was a 55% chance assigned by the betting markets that Butler would be the top two vote getter, meaning there's a 50% chance that she's going to win.
01:59:53.000And as the day has gone on, I think the polls closed two hours ago.
02:02:02.000And the betting markets flip all the time.
02:02:04.000The betting markets, it tends to be the case that the betting markets follow the results rather than the betting markets predicting the results, especially on election night.
02:02:15.000Because if you watch the election night on 2020, There were wild fluctuations.
02:04:19.000Because again, what this represents is that people are putting their money on the line.
02:04:23.000You know, they're putting their money where their mouth is and they're saying.
02:04:30.000They're saying, okay, we, you know, the polls closed, the results started coming in, we've looked at the results, and now we think after the results came in that Butler has a 30% greater chance of winning than she did before, than she did earlier this week.
02:04:48.000The 30 days shows that she was the favorite to be the second vote getter, one of the top two, and then since the polls closed, that trend has resumed.
02:06:23.000And I guess they're saying if he had a good performance, if he had a better than expected performance than Butler, another impeachment Republican will have a better than expected performance.
02:06:33.000And that she will probably be the top Republican vote getter because the anti Butler vote will be split between St. John and Kemp.
02:06:42.000Now, that is what they're saying there for those that aren't following very closely.
02:08:28.000There's a strong base of Democrats in our district, and as a rural Democrat who works in the trades, I am the candidate who can flip the seat.
02:09:48.000So far, it's because of you guys, because of the people in this room, people out there, people all throughout the district getting engaged and getting us this far.
02:09:56.000I'm still very optimistic we have a clear pathway to victory.
02:11:25.000This is a guy that knows he's going to win.
02:11:27.000This is a guy that is very confident he's going to get 28%.
02:11:31.000That's a face of supreme confidence in the wake of disappointing performance so far in his untuckable shirt and in his freaking Dickies work pants.
02:11:42.000Jagof getting millions of dollars pouring into the super PACs and he's wearing work pants because he's just one of us, right?
02:13:14.000America first, far right candidate Joe Kent looks like he's not going to make it out of the primary in Washington against Republican Jamie Herrera.
02:13:21.000Butler, weirdly, Kent may have been hurt by being outflanked on his right.
02:13:29.000If Joe Kent hadn't disavowed Jesus and gotten duped by Bannon into campaigning as a Marxist with his inclusive populism, bourgeoisie versus proletariat crap, maybe he'd be winning this right now.
02:18:17.000Andrew McCarthy, I send my power to brother Joe Kent.
02:18:20.000Well, you know, I kind of like Andrew McCarthy, but he did drop out after the first quarter, so I don't know how valuable that energy is going to be.
02:26:25.000Joe Kent, more like Joe, can't win this election because he's stupid and cringe and lame and boring and is a federal operative, by the way.
02:26:33.000Very true, Aiden, at fart smell on 9 11.
02:37:04.000So it seems like, from, and again, I'm not the expert here in what's being counted and what isn't, but it looks like this district, half of the votes have been counted, and you've got.
02:37:45.000In fact, the only districts where he's even in.
02:37:48.000The only district that he's not in third place in these districts, he's in third place.
02:37:54.000The only districts he's not in third place.
02:37:57.000The votes aren't going to come from here.
02:37:59.000The votes aren't going to come from here.
02:38:01.000This is the only one where he's performing strong, and there's a lot of votes left.
02:38:04.000And in this one, he's in second place here.
02:38:08.000And Butler's got 30 fewer votes than him, and they're already 50% done.
02:38:14.000I mean, there's no call, and I'm not in a position to call it, but from what it looks like where the votes are, if 64% of the votes have been counted, how many more votes can come in for Kent?
02:38:47.000And even if every remaining vote is counted in this district, the biggest district where Kent is not in third place and he barely beats Butler, and you still got 70,000 more votes to come in, 60,000, 50,000 more votes to come in from this county where he's in third.
02:41:28.000Ethan Ralph, I actually deleted my tweet earlier about Joe Kent being on pace to lose because one of his supporters showed a fake decision desk screenshot.
02:45:04.000Blake Masters, 34%, looks like it could be good enough to win the Senate primary, while Kerry Lakes, 40%, doesn't look like it will cut it.
02:46:46.000You think at this point you'd get calls, you think at this point in the night you'd at least have enough in that you can make a prediction, you can make a call.
02:54:59.000We have lost so many jobs, millions of jobs.
02:55:02.000Since the lockdown started in 2020, to say that unemployment is below 4% flies in the face of reality, flies in the face of everything that's gone on in the past two years.
02:55:13.000So it's a totally ignorant, baseless statement.
02:56:05.000When debating, mainstream conservatives make the mistake of compromising their ideas or message in order to be optical or make useless common ground with their opponents.
02:56:14.000However, every time you debate, your opponents have to concede that you're W. Russell Hoglan sent $3.
02:56:22.000Worldview is both consistent and totalizing, unlike conservatives who inevitably contradict themselves by not being consistent or totalizing.
02:56:29.000Yeah, that's a very good point, you know, because you start when you come in and concede these like left wing presuppositions.
02:56:37.000You will be led in a left wing direction.
02:56:38.000So you can go in there and say, Well, I think men and women are equal, but, and you're just going to lose.
02:56:43.000You lost that debate because the reason why men and women have to be segregated and have different roles is because they're different, meaning unequal.
02:56:51.000And so if you go into the debate saying, Well, I think women and men should have the same opportunities, you lost.
02:56:57.000Presupposed equality, which is not real.
02:57:00.000And so the left will beat you up every time, they will take it to its logical conclusion, and you're right.
02:57:07.000They'll show that you're arguing in bad faith because the reasons you say you support are not the real reasons, not the foundational reasons.
02:57:15.000And so, if you're being consistent, you're going to be taken to a left wing place.
02:57:19.000There's not a lot where that's not true.
02:57:20.000There are not a lot of arguments like that that aren't, of political arguments that don't go that way.
02:57:45.000If your argument is that work is not satisfying for women, and that's the issue, that women are more satisfied and fulfilled as mothers, you know, a left wing person is going to come back and say, well, some women aren't.
02:57:57.000So shouldn't we live in a free society where people can choose?
02:58:00.000Because We don't know, and only individuals can determine what is the unique recipe for their unique flavor of happiness.
02:58:15.000Because certainly there are some women who are infertile or lesbians, or there are women that want to be president.
02:58:20.000And it's like, okay, well, if the question is women's fulfillment, then shouldn't you let the moms be moms and the women who want to be the lesbians be the president?
02:58:30.000Well, then they go, oh, well, but women are being pressured by society, and I just want society not to.
02:58:36.000They could have the choice, but not really.
02:58:38.000And then the argument is something like, well, they're not being pressured.
02:58:41.000It's just that women have been oppressed for years, and promoting STEM for women and promoting these things for women against traditional motherhood is rectifying centuries of discrimination and unequal opportunity.
03:00:55.000And the foundation is egalitarianism, libertarianism, et cetera.
03:01:00.000You know, they believe in all the fundamental premises of the Enlightenment.
03:01:03.000And then the left comes in and says, no, you know, they shake that house to its core and say, you can't build that here.
03:01:09.000You can't build houses on this foundation.
03:01:11.000And then the right comes in with a little potted plant and says, commercials are too biased.
03:01:16.000Joe Biden is a well meaning person, et cetera, et cetera.
03:01:20.000But, you know, I just don't really like him.
03:01:22.000In the sort of like putting like a very lame, like you're quibbling with the details on the left wing castle.
03:01:29.000Okay, well, but our potted plant, left wing has built a cathedral on their left wing ground and they sieged our little hut and then we were imprisoned and enslaved and we said, hey, but you know, we made this sculpture, we made this little pot, we made a coffee mug that says number one Republican and you could put that in the king's throne room and that coffee mug is.
03:01:55.000You know, commercials are just too political these days, or some other nonsense.
03:02:00.000So, yeah, that is 100% how it goes every time.
03:02:54.000I said the idea of the nuclear family and women being inside of a suburb, in a home in a suburb, I said that's not even really traditional.
03:07:41.000You know, it's not really the same as like a really beautiful woman who's, you know, or a woman of like another race or like an emo girl or a goth girl, like a girl with a beanie.
03:09:26.000And my tastes are the same way about that.
03:09:29.000In the same way that I didn't become a lawyer or work for the GOP, same thing is true about I'm not going to go with the blondie or whatever, blondie conservative gun girl or whatever.
03:09:43.000So I'm a little bit more complicated than that.
03:14:19.000Like, what if Stardust trapped me in some kind of like Indian temple, like Raiders of the, not Raiders, Temple of Doom?
03:14:28.000What if Stardust trapped me in some kind of like Temple of Doom jungle trap and said, like, if you don't marry me, I'm going to stab, I'm going to rip your heart out, need it.
03:14:37.000You know, and I'm just sort of waiting for something like that to happen, frankly.
03:14:42.000I'm waiting for, you know, I'm waiting for Kathy Zhu to send her ninjas.
03:14:47.000I'm waiting for Kathy Zhu to send her soldiers of the Imperial Chinese Army to sort of capture me and send me on a cargo ship to China and that kind of thing, you know?
03:15:00.000Because otherwise, I don't know, you know, how it's going to develop organically.
03:15:06.000Like, I'm not going to go to Starbucks and order plain coffee and sit there and wait for it, and some, like, you know, goth Asian girl who looks white is going to be there, like, oh, the coffee with cream and sugar?
03:15:35.000It's like I'm going to be taking my state visit to India, meeting with the Indian government, and then a giant net will descend from the jungle canopy, and Stardust and the villagers will take me back, take me to the village and force a marriage.
03:16:28.000You know, I never pretended to be, you know, six foot three, you know, Chad quarterback who's going to, you know, I always said I'm the eccentric guy who's going to wind up with the goth GF, okay, who's going to wind up with Grimes or, you know, the equivalent.
03:16:50.000So I don't think anybody should really be.
03:16:53.000Nobody can, you know, maybe you might not like that, but nobody could really say that they're, like, feel cheated or something.
03:16:58.000Like they feel like they were, you know.
03:18:54.000The FAQ says you can open a ballot, change your vote, tape it shut, and as long as the signature on the outside envelope matches your registration, the vote is counted.
03:19:03.000You're saying there's a big potential for fraud.
03:19:05.000You're saying that Joe Kent, all of Joe Kent's votes are stolen.
03:19:22.000Listen, what happens between me and Stardust is our business, but I would never betray a brother for Cathy Ju or any of them for that matter.
03:19:31.000So, I mean, I get where you're coming from, but you can't betray.
03:22:43.000Could Bernie Sanders have won the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination had Elizabeth Warren not run?
03:22:50.000I think he could have won if there weren't so many spoilers.
03:22:53.000I mean, yeah, Warren is a big one, but you remember, I think it was after Nevada or South Carolina, they all dropped out and endorsed Biden.
03:24:34.000We don't clock them when they come in.
03:24:36.000Those are the people that slip through.
03:24:37.000So similarly with voting fraud, if you don't audit the votes, you really have no idea.
03:24:42.000But if there's a lot of mail in ballots, you can assume, well, there's a big source of fraud there.
03:24:46.000If there's a much higher likelihood of fraud, And a significant proportion of the votes are mail in, you don't really need to know exactly how far it goes.
03:24:55.000You can say that it has the potential to be very small or as many votes as there are mail in ballots or a significant proportion of them.
03:26:15.000The pro abortioners in Kansas got a huge ton of cash from out of state donors and they poured it into boosting turnout in liberal Johnson, Wyandotte, Douglas, and Shawnee counties.
03:28:46.000If he didn't get confirmation, then you got to do RCIA.
03:28:50.000So, you've got to contact your parish and figure out how to get involved in their RCIA program.
03:28:58.000I haven't had to do that because I was confirmed.
03:29:00.000So, I don't know particularly how it works, but you've got to find whatever your church is, go to your parish and see how you can go through RCIA.
03:29:09.000I believe if you're baptized at birth and then you don't get confirmed, you have to do RCIA.
03:29:16.000So, that's how you've got to get back into it.
03:29:18.000But don't take communion until you do that.
03:29:23.000It wasn't just that he used ancient Greek pederasty, it was that he had to add how they would rub olive oil on the boys' thighs beforehand.
03:29:30.000Yeah, I know, I don't understand it either.
03:40:52.000So it's not, we haven't gotten any bad news yet other than the Kansas abortion referendum, which is pretty bad.
03:41:02.000But as far as elections go, a lot of good, and the rest is undecided.
03:41:07.000So we'll have to pick this up tomorrow, and once we get some vote totals, we'll be able to get a complete analysis of what happened tonight.
03:41:16.000So that's going to do it for me tonight.