RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR IMMINENT??? WAGNER GROUP MUTINIES AGAINST RUSSIAN MILITARY | America First Ep. 1180RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR IMMINENT??? WAGNER GROUP MUTINIES AGAINST RUSSIAN MILITARY | America First Ep. 1180
In this episode, I talk about the use of private military contractors to fight in Ukraine, and how they came to be used by Vladimir Putin and the Russian government. I discuss the history of the private military contractor, Wagner Group, and why Putin authorized them to join forces with the Russian military in Ukraine. I also talk about how Wagner Group recruited members of the Russian prison system to join the fight against Ukraine's pro-Moscow government. I also discuss why Putin allowed them to do so, and what it means for the future of Russia's military and its relations with the rest of the world. Thanks for listening and share this episode with your friends and family! If you like what you hear, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and we'll read out your comments and thoughts on the next episode. Thank you so much for your support and stay tuned for more episodes like this one! -Your support is greatly appreciated and we look forward to hearing from you in the coming weeks. -Eugene Blumberg, PhD, MAJOR FICTIONALIST, M.A. and his amazing book, "Russia's New York Times bestselling novel, "The Devil Next Door" coming out soon! (coming soon). and my book "The New World: The New World's Most Powerful People's Guide to the New World," coming out in November 2019. (Coming Soon, coming soon, . , . . . , written by is out now, about the new book, coming out on Nov. 28, 2019, , coming out November 2020, and , and (listen to the new podcast, November 2020 July 2020, July 2020 . , , July 2020 , July 2021, July 2019 August 2020, 2020, and so much more! ) September 2020, November 2019, and July 20, - August 2019, 2019 , August 2020 - March 2020, 2018, May 2020, 2019 , March 2019, 2020 , and so & so on 2019, & so much so, & January 2020, etc., June 2020, so , etc., etc., and so on, etc., so on and soon - so on & so forth, etc.. Thanks for watching, so much
Transcript
Transcripts from "America First - Nicholas J. Fuentes" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. You can also explore and interact with the transcripts here.
00:00:08.000Because NATO and the EU have strict requirements for a state to join, and one of them is that they can't have a civil war going on.
00:00:17.000They can't have that level of civil strife.
00:00:21.000And so by sponsoring that war, not only were they destabilizing the Ukrainian state, they're preventing them from joining NATO and the European Union, and
00:00:31.000They're effectively bringing territory under Russian control like had been done in Georgia 15 years ago and like is going on currently in Moldova and other countries.
00:00:43.000Sort of an unofficial outpost of Russian influence in these former Soviet Union countries.
00:01:14.000And it became clear by May and June that the war wasn't going to be over quickly.
00:01:19.000That probably it was out of the question that Russia might ever take Ukraine's capital.
00:01:25.000And so it was at that point that Russia began to enlist the help of the Wagner Group.
00:01:31.000Because at that time, the Wagner Group was primarily operating out of West Africa, and elsewhere in the Middle East.
00:01:38.000They were operating in Syria, shoring up the Assad government, they were in Libya, they were in the Central African Republic, and Niger, among other countries.
00:01:49.000And so it was this summer when Putin called in the Wagner Group,
00:01:53.000To aid the Russian military in Ukraine.
00:01:55.000And again, there's an important distinction here.
00:01:59.000The Russian military is under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
00:02:04.000And that's the official Russian Armed Forces acting officially on behalf of the Russian government, answering directly to Putin on an official, formal basis.
00:03:26.000They said it was a special military operation, and that's not just a legal technicality.
00:03:31.000They don't want to call it a war, because they don't want to fully mobilize the army, because they don't want to drag the Russian society into a war effort.
00:03:40.000That's all part of this domestic political calculus by Putin.
00:03:45.000So when the Russian military was not able to quickly take Kiev, Putin called up the private military contractors so that they could sustain this partial mobilization.
00:03:57.000The Russian military wasn't cutting it, they needed reinforcements, they didn't want to mobilize more of the military, so they brought in the Wagner Group.
00:04:07.000At the time that the war in Ukraine broke out, the Wagner Group only had about 10,000 troops.
00:04:14.000And so what Putin did, and this was only possible through a direct authorization of Putin,
00:04:19.000Is that he authorized the Wagner Group to go to Russian prisons and to begin enlisting felons that are currently imprisoned in Russia into the military.
00:04:30.000And this has been going on from about July to February or January.
00:04:36.000And it was only discovered in, I think, January that this was even happening.
00:04:43.000But there was a leaked video where Prigozhin, the head of Wagner Group, was going to these prisons and telling the prisoners there that they could serve in the Wagner Group in Ukraine, and they could go and fight and leave prison, and they would never go back to prison.
00:05:25.000He brings in Wagner Group to recruit from the prisons, again, so that they don't have to mobilize more of the population, they can kind of shield the population from this, and they bring in the private military contractor to enlist prisoners, which is another unsavory thing that the Russian military probably wouldn't want to do themselves.
00:05:46.000And so the Wagner Group swells to 50,000 members.
00:05:52.000And they go in, and they start doing a lot better than the Russian military.
00:05:57.000They're advancing at a much faster rate than the Russian military had been.
00:06:02.000And so around the fall, Wagner Group starts to brag about its military success and they also start to complain.
00:06:09.000They say that the Russian military is not holding up their end of the bargain, they're not providing the Wagner Group with the logistical support they need, they're not providing ammunition.
00:06:19.000And so this is where we get to the last six months.
00:06:23.000This is where things start to break down, because that's ultimately what the day's events are about, is a breakdown and a conflict between the Wagner Group, this private entity, and their very outspoken leader, Prigozhin, and the Russian military, the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is under the Defense Minister and the Russian generals.
00:06:46.000So this is where we see the origins, and I'll read some background here.
00:06:52.000These are some news articles from this year which will give some details about specifically how we got here.
00:06:59.000So, in October and September, the head of Wagner Group, Prigozhin, starts going out on social media.
00:08:21.000And to this day, he's one of the most popular wartime leaders in Russia.
00:08:27.000The President of Russia, Putin, doesn't like this.
00:08:30.000And he specifically goes out to the Russian state media and tells them not to broadcast Purgosian's messages.
00:08:37.000He tells Russian television, Russian print and radio, do not publish these social media videos by Purgosian, do not talk about his military successes.
00:08:46.000And so 30% of the Russian population doesn't even know who he is.
00:08:50.000Because he's being throttled by the Russian President.
00:08:54.000In January, Putin suspends Purgosian's ability to recruit from the Russian prisons.
00:09:16.000It's his quote in late January with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in Bakhmut.
00:09:23.000Wagner Group owner Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.
00:09:27.000He said that if Ukraine's commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kiev information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them.
00:09:39.000Pregozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine's military intelligence directorate with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war.
00:09:49.000Other leaked documents reveal that the Russian Defense Ministry officials were privately wondering how to respond to Purgosian's criticism of the military's performance and his demands for more resources, which they conceded were not illegitimate grievances.
00:10:04.000The documents also speak to a power struggle between Purgosian and top officials, including the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu.
00:10:14.000So this was only revealed in May this year.
00:10:37.000These are his guys which he recruited.
00:10:40.000And he's complaining on social media and complaining to the military that the Russian military is not as successful, they're not showing up in Bakhmut where the front line is, where there's heavy casualties, and not only are they not as successful, not only are they not providing the manpower support on the front lines, but he says that they're withholding ammunition, and they're withholding ammunition because he's making them look bad.
00:11:29.000It's being withheld because they're not successful.
00:11:34.000And so Prigozhin then, according to the leaked intelligence, goes to Ukraine and says, if you stop attacking my men in Bakhmut on the front lines, I'll tell you where you can fight the Russian military.
00:11:46.000I'll tell you where they are and where morale is low.
00:11:54.000And while he's complaining on social media, within the Russian military, the defense minister and the generals are saying to themselves, well, he's not wrong.
00:12:16.000As the Bakhmut battle is winding to a close, Purgosian goes out and says that he's done.
00:12:22.000He's going to retreat, he's going to abandon Bakhmut, he's not got the ammunition that he needs, he doesn't have the support that he needs, so he says that if the Russian military doesn't relieve him, he's pulling out on May 10th, and this is another story.
00:12:37.000It says, quote, the war of words between Wagner chief Purgosian and the Russian defense ministry escalated with the paramilitary group's financier filming himself raging at Moscow and threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.
00:12:52.000In a statement published by Purgosian's press service, Wagner commanders accused Russia's defense ministry of artificially creating shell shortages for their mercenaries and causing higher casualties.
00:13:04.000Wagner's statement accuses the Kremlin of being jealous of its forces' successes on the front lines, particularly after the Defense Ministry units were forced to retreat from Kharkiv and Kursan during Ukraine's September 2022 counteroffensive.
00:13:19.000He said, quote, we were supposed to take Bakhmut by May 9th, and knowing that military bureaucrats almost completely cut our shells supplies on May 1st.
00:13:30.000Pergozhin's video and the Wagner Statement present an extraordinary breakdown in relations between the Kremlin and its most famous paramilitary unit, whose forces are key to Russia's offensive on Bakhmut, a strategic town that has seen some of the heaviest fighting in recent months.
00:13:45.000The statement published by Wagner claims Russian Defense Ministry units were supposed to cover the paramilitary group's flanks, but are struggling to do so.
00:13:55.000The commander's added that there are insufficient resources to continue storming Ukrainian positions and as a result dozens of mercenaries are being killed every day.
00:14:05.000On May 10th, Wagner's forces will retreat and pass their frontline positions to Russia's official army, said Prigozhin.
00:14:15.000So he says, and this is after six months, in January he's offering the positions
00:14:21.000of the Russian Defense Ministry to Ukraine, and the Russian Defense Ministry officials are wondering how they're going to compete in the press.
00:14:30.000And then by May, after five months of heavy fighting and some say as high as a hundred deaths per day by the Wagner Group, Purgosian says, we're done.
00:14:41.000If you want to fill in, you can, but we're out because we don't want to bleed anymore.
00:15:19.000This month, in June, the Defense Ministry demands that Purgosian sign all the mercenaries in the Wagner Group on contracts with the Defense Ministry.
00:15:31.000In other words, the Defense Minister, the President, have said, okay, enough.
00:16:35.000It says, quote, fighters of the Wagner paramilitary group will not sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, says the Wagner boss, Prigozhin, countering an effort by the ministry in Moscow to integrate the mercenaries into the Ordinary Army.
00:16:49.000Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Saturday ordered all volunteer detachments at the front in the Ukraine to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1st in order to increase the effectiveness of the army.
00:17:04.000He did not specifically mention Wagner, but the soldiers are frequently referred to as volunteer assault detachments.
00:17:11.000In response, Purgosian posted a statement on Telegram saying that Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu, who is his rival.
00:17:20.000Pergozhin has repeatedly attacked Russian President Vladimir Putin's top military brass for what he casts as treachery, for failing to fight the war in Ukraine properly, and he repeatedly accused the Kremlin's high command of withholding ammunition from Wagner forces fighting in Bakhmut, which has seen some of the fiercest combat of the war.
00:17:46.000And clearly they're trying to assert supremacy.
00:17:50.000They're trying to assert primacy in the chain of command over Purgosian.
00:17:54.000Because you can't have that insubordination.
00:17:58.000You can't have generals fighting generals.
00:18:00.000You can't have a general going out and cussing out the Defense Ministry and saying that he's going to retreat and giving positions to Ukraine.
00:18:25.000Purgosian goes out and says that the Defense Minister is lying to the Russian President about his success in Ukraine, and abjectly resists Putin's direct orders to sign his mercenaries to the Russian military.
00:18:39.000This is the story, this is the last one.
00:18:42.000It says, quote, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shuigu is lying to President Vladimir Putin about colossal battlefield failures in Ukraine, according to Prygozhin, on Thursday, which is yesterday.
00:18:54.000His latest tirade comes amid a spat over an order issued by the Defense Minister that members of volunteer formations must sign contracts with the Russian Federation by July 1st.
00:19:05.000After Purgosian rejected the order, Putin said during a meeting with pro-war bloggers that his Defense Minister's initiative, quote, has to be done and it has to be done as quickly as possible.
00:20:13.000Reports have said that Purgosian is the only one that will criticize Putin in private, but he has not criticized nor has he challenged Putin in public.
00:20:23.000His rivalry, his criticisms, are about the defense minister and about the generals.
00:20:29.000And that's what today's events appear to be about.
00:20:32.000It looks like an effort to solidify control over the Russian military and the operation in Ukraine.
00:20:40.000Probably serving under Putin until it's over and then, it seems likely, transforming that into some sort of political movement.
00:20:52.000But this is the story from today from Fox News.
00:20:57.000It says, quote, a Russian government agency is opening a criminal investigation into Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin after he called for an armed rebellion on Friday which was aimed at removing the country's defense minister.
00:21:10.000In a series of video and audio recordings, Prigozhin angrily accused Defense Minister Shuigu of ordering a rocket strike on the private military contractor's field camps where the group is fighting on behalf of Russia and Ukraine.
00:21:24.000Purgosian said, it's not a military coup, but a march of justice.
00:21:28.000The evil embodied by the country's military leadership must be stopped.
00:21:34.000So, earlier today, and these are the first events, this is the timeline, Purgosian claims that the Russian Defense Ministry hit a Wagner camp with missiles and killed thousands of their soldiers.
00:21:47.000So, Purgosian declares war on the Defense Ministry.
00:21:50.000That's what it was, a declaration of war.
00:21:52.000He said, we're going to march to Moscow.
00:21:55.000Nobody stand in our way or we'll kill you.
00:21:57.000And he says that the Russian National Guard can join them and take their deal or they'll face consequences and be punished when they take power.
00:22:05.000He says that they're not attempting to overthrow the government, but they want justice.
00:22:10.000They're going to march to Moscow and then back to the front lines to win the war.
00:22:16.000And it was after this that the Russian FSB, which is their equivalent of the FBI, said that they're opening an investigation into Purgosian for declaring this rebellion.
00:22:27.000And at the same time, the Russian government denied the missile strike.
00:22:30.000So, we don't know if the missile strike happened.
00:22:36.000The story goes on, it says, quote, according to the state news agency, the National Antiterrorism Committee, which is part of the Federal Security Services, will be opening a criminal investigation on charges of calling for an armed rebellion.
00:22:51.000The report states that the Russian president was kept informed of the situation.
00:22:56.000Moscow appears to be taking the threat seriously as the National Guard and riot police were sent to provide security for key facilities in Moscow, which includes transport infrastructure and government agencies.
00:23:07.000In a statement to Fox News, National Security Council Spokesperson Adam Hodge said that we are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.
00:23:17.000President Biden has been briefed on the situation.
00:23:21.000Russian state media reported that police checkpoints have been set up on Russia's M4 highway after Rostov towards Aksay and cars are being turned around back into the city.
00:23:35.000And the latest is that all the highways into Moscow have been closed by the military.
00:23:40.000So the military and police have been deployed across Moscow.
00:23:49.000They have instituted the Fortress Protocol, where they're protecting Kremlin assets and other Defense Ministry assets in the city.
00:23:58.000Putin is being sheltered somewhere in the city.
00:24:01.000The latest updates come from Telegram and from other news agencies, and they show that Google News has been shut down in Russia.
00:24:10.000They say that Purgosian and Wagner have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and they've seized Rostov, which is a major city of more than a million people, and that they've taken control of Ministry of Defense buildings, including the Southern Military District headquarters.
00:24:28.000And apparently they've done that without any resistance from the military.
00:24:32.000No shooting, no resistance, no confrontation.
00:24:36.000Apparently, Purgosian and Wagner walked in from Ukraine into Rostov, or Rostov on Don, Rostov on the Don River.
00:24:46.000They've taken over the city, they've taken over the police headquarters, they've taken over the Southern Military District headquarters, they've taken over the Defense Ministry building, and there hasn't been any fighting.
00:24:58.000Meanwhile, Moscow is a fortress, they've sealed off all the highways,
00:25:04.000And they're protecting all the Defense Ministry assets there.
00:25:08.000And so what this would suggest about the current state of things is that probably Purgosian is not having any resistance because there are sympathetic elements within the Russian military.
00:25:20.000And so this is the complete picture of what's going on.
00:25:25.000Is that after this brewing conflict between the Russian military and Wagner Group, Purgosian declared war on the Ministry of Defense.
00:25:33.000After the Ministry of Defense gave him an ultimatum, they said, you gotta turn yourself over to the Ministry of Defense, you have to become part of the military.
00:25:46.000You are going to become part of Wagner.
00:25:48.000You are going to become a part of my command.
00:25:52.000And so now, like Napoleon, he is calling on the Russian military, he's calling on the Russian National Guard to join him to overthrow the leadership of the military.
00:26:02.000And understand, the Wagner Group is totally dependent on the Russian military.
00:26:08.000The Wagner Group is dependent on the Russian military supply chains and for logistics, and they can't survive without the Russian military.
00:26:17.000And the Russian military is much bigger.
00:26:20.000But what Purgosian is counting on is for the soldiers to turn against the Ministry of Defense.
00:26:26.000And there are some reports that Russian soldiers working alongside the Wagner Group in Bakhmut are joining up with Purgosian because they agree with him.
00:26:36.000They're fed up with the Russian Defense Ministry as well.
00:26:39.000And it would suggest, because Purgosian was able to walk into Rostov, which is a major city, without a shot being fired and without resistance, it would indicate
00:26:50.000That the Russian National Guard stood down, that the Russian military stood down.
00:26:56.000And they didn't resist because they want to work for Purgosian.
00:27:02.000And so now there's this crisis within the military and it's really an open-ended question of where the military's loyalty lies.
00:27:09.000Some say now that on the road between Rostov and Moscow, probably Purgosian and the Wagner Group will encounter loyalists
00:27:20.000To the Chechen leader Kadyrov, or to the Russian Defense Ministry, and that there may actually be fighting on the road to Moscow.
00:27:27.000And so this might actually turn into a full-fledged civil war.
00:27:33.000And really those are the two outcomes.
00:27:34.000It looks like either Prigozhin is going to get himself into a war with the Russian military, which
00:27:42.000It's going to result probably in the collapse of the Russian front line in Ukraine amid this counter-offensive.
00:27:48.000It's going to result in chaos across the Russian state.
00:27:51.000It's going to result in all of these territories and allies of Russia, like Syria, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, breaking away without the Russian military support.
00:28:04.000So that's option one, is a full-fledged civil war, which it looks like, based on Purgosian support, is very likely
00:28:12.000Or, Purgosian will be arrested in the next few days and killed, and the Russian military will gain control over the Wagner Group.
00:28:22.000But this is the situation as it stands, and I don't know, there may have been updates since I went live.
00:28:27.000Because, you know, it's been constantly evolving as the night has gone on, and it's been tricky because some of it's confirmed, some of it is rumors.
00:28:36.000And so there have been unconfirmed reports that helicopters have been shot down and that there is shooting in other cities.
00:29:12.000And video from Moscow shows that they have locked down the city.
00:29:14.000So we do have confirmation on all of that, but it's a situation that has been unfolding over the day with a lot of unverified information, but we're learning more as it goes on.
00:29:25.000And honestly, we still don't even exactly know the nature of what it is, because I actually still think it's an outstanding question of what is Putin's role in all of this?
00:29:34.000I wonder, because he did meet with Purgosian a few days ago,
00:29:39.000If he might be in on this in some way, I think that might be a little bit far-fetched.
00:29:45.000But it's curious to me that they haven't announced that they're going to arrest him yet.
00:29:51.000They said that they're investigating, but they haven't indicted him.
00:29:54.000They haven't called for his arrest yet.
00:30:17.000Probably that is what precipitated this showdown.
00:30:22.000And it seems that it all stems from Purgosian becoming this outspoken military potential political leader, being stifled, being the victim of this internal politics within the Russian military over his success and their lack of success,
00:30:37.000So he's stifled by Putin politically, stifled by the military militarily, and he refuses to go down and subordinate himself to the military.
00:30:47.000And so now, recognizing that, I mean, he probably would be a good candidate for assassination, he's just getting too popular, he's crossed too many red lines, he's saying there's only one way I'm going out and that's... I'm gonna try and take over the military.
00:31:09.000And he's counting on tremendous support from inside the Russian Ministry of Defense.
00:31:13.000He's counting on a lot of people to jump ship to recognize that he's correct.
00:31:20.000That he's not getting ammunition, that the Russian military has been mishandling the war, they have been lying to Putin, he's counting on support from the Russian National Guard, from the Russian Defense Ministry, in order to pull off a military coup, not against the President, but against a military brass.
00:31:37.000Now, I don't know how likely it is that he's successful.
00:31:39.000There may be a protracted civil war, and if he is successful, I think that spells the end of Russia.
00:31:47.000I don't think Putin remains president in a situation where his government loses a war with a private military contractor, an oligarch.
00:31:56.000Also, if there was a major civil war, probably would mean that Russia would lose the war in Ukraine.
00:32:02.000And if that happens, again, I think that's the end of the Putin regime.
00:32:09.000So a civil war is going to be a very bad situation.
00:32:37.000A civil war is going to be catastrophic for the Russian state, whatever the outcome.
00:32:42.000Alternatively, it could all be over very quickly.
00:32:46.000If Purgosian doesn't have a lot of support, he'll be arrested within a few days, and they'll put down the rebellion, and it'll still be a very embarrassing disaster, but it probably won't be existential.
00:33:02.000So these are the developments in Russia, and I have to say, as far as Purgosian is concerned, he's a traitor.
00:33:11.000Because these actions are going to spell the end of the Russian state, if he's successful.
00:33:43.000This is bad for Russia, this is bad for Europe, this is bad for America, it's bad for China.
00:33:49.000Because Russia falling into some sort of failed state status, which seems more likely by the hour, as we said earlier during the show, is a global catastrophe.
00:34:03.000Because now you got, what is it, 6,000 nuclear weapons?
00:34:08.000In the hands of, who knows, rogue elements in the military?
00:34:36.000And by the way, that's not good for anybody.
00:34:39.000I know the Americans are pushing for this.
00:34:41.000I know that the American regime is pushing for Russia to lose and they want a coup.
00:34:45.000They think that if there's a coup in Russia, I don't know, some liberal who is going to legalize gay marriage will get elected.
00:34:53.000In reality, it's going to be like it was in the 90s, which is chaos, anarchy, violence, and a major power vacuum in a massive part of the world, and a very strategically important part of the world.
00:35:10.000So this is a very scary situation, and we'll be watching and we'll see what happens here.
00:35:16.000We don't even really know, again, fully what's happening.
00:35:22.000I think if you look at the background here, like we did on the show tonight, and you sort of go through the whole timeline from the beginning until the end, I think you can make sense out of it.
00:35:35.000And I think things will become a lot more clear over the coming days.
00:35:38.000You know, we'll know what the trajectory is, and we'll also know who's in on it, and what really is going on, because right now there's just so much unverified information, it's hard to say.
00:36:37.000And it would seem, by taking it to the media, that he was not able to resolve this behind the scenes.
00:36:43.000Purgosian going out to the media and taking it to the public would suggest that he was making these demands to the Russian Defense Ministry and they weren't listening.
00:36:51.000So he said, okay, I'll go to the media.
00:36:59.000So in the fall, he starts going on these expletive-laden rants on Telegram about how he's not getting what he wants, he's embarrassing the Russian Defense Ministry, and he's also talking about, and it seems like, a political career.
00:37:15.000He denies that he wants one, but he's talking about forming an ideological army, bringing Wagner to the society he wants to be the face, and Wagner to be sort of like
00:37:26.000More embedded in Russian society in the aftermath of the war.
00:37:30.000Once they're done in Bakhmut, he wants to bring that clout into Russian society.
00:37:37.000And so Putin doesn't want that, doesn't like another war hero becoming popular, because there really is no political opposition.
00:37:44.000So he throttles him in the media, throttles him on television.
00:37:49.000Purgosian, frustrated in January, goes to the Ukrainians,
00:37:54.000And says, I'll give you their positions if you stop relenting, or rather stop fighting, if you relent and stop killing my guys.
00:38:38.000And it's a fight about where the allegiance lies in the military.
00:38:42.000Because if the Ministry of Defense stands with Shoeigu, and with the generals, and with Putin, then Wagner Group will fall apart and he will be arrested shortly.
00:38:51.000But if there's significant opposition to the Defense Ministry, then there may be a major civil war, in which case Russia explodes.
00:38:59.000And it's just like game over for a decade.
00:39:05.000But this crisis is brought to you by the neocons position in Russia.
00:39:09.000They pushed, and they pushed, and they pushed.
00:39:12.000And to zoom out here and talk about the war in Ukraine, understand that Ukraine has only been able to persist for the last nine years because of American support.
00:39:24.000This has been going on for decades if you really want to go back.
00:39:29.000In 2008, Putin said Ukraine and Georgia will never join NATO.
00:39:36.000Because, of course, since the Cold War ended in 1991, NATO keeps expanding every year, going further and further east.
00:39:46.000There was a handshake deal in 1991 that said,
00:39:51.000We will allow Eastern Germany to reunify with Germany and form a unified Germany and become part of NATO, but you can't move NATO further east.
00:40:01.000There's also another deal, the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, which says that Ukraine will give up the nuclear weapons that it has in exchange for a security guarantee from the West, which kind of set the stage for this.
00:40:13.000But there's no security guarantee given for Russia.
00:40:21.000Putin speaks out and says, there's a limit to how far this expansion can go.
00:40:26.000And Russia at this point is a fledgling state.
00:40:30.000Putin's elected in 2000, and Russia's in chaos.
00:40:35.000Russia's poor, there's violence, there's this gang warfare between organized crime and these Jewish oligarchs.
00:40:44.000And so Putin comes in and over the course of the last 20 years solidifies the state,
00:40:50.000In 2007-2008, he says, you're not going to expand into Ukraine and Georgia, it's too close.
00:40:56.000We need control of the Black Sea, we need control of this peripheral region.
00:41:02.000But in 2008, NATO says, we want Ukraine and Georgia and NATO, and Georgia attempts to join NATO in 2008, and there's a major war with Russia over this.
00:41:34.000Torpedoes a deal that would bring Ukraine into the European Union, and instead goes with a deal with Russia that would be more lucrative for Ukraine.
00:41:44.000And then the State Department and the CIA sponsor the Euromaidan coup, and they overthrow the government, and they install a pro-Western leader.
00:41:52.000Russia moves into Crimea, Russia starts this civil war in the Donbass, and over the last eight years
00:42:38.000They have been fortifying their defenses, bolstering their offensive capability against this separatist movement in Donbass.
00:42:46.000And they've never backed down, by the way.
00:42:48.000The pro-Western government in Ukraine has only been getting more aggressive, saying they're gonna take Crimea, they're gonna take Donbass, they're gonna get a nuclear arsenal.
00:43:01.000And Putin has been giving these ultimatums ever since Trump revised
00:43:06.000The American strategy in Eastern Europe and began redeploying medium-range ballistic missiles Putin has said and he's put out multiple requests and said we need to have a meeting and by the way a reasonable request to get rid of the missiles in Eastern Europe and it can be reciprocal and there can be terms on both sides but he's put out multiple overtures in 2020 and 2021.
00:44:07.000Now understand that Ukraine never stood a chance at defeating Russia.
00:44:13.000Now because Ukraine had been armed to the teeth over the last 10 years, Russia had difficulty taking over Ukraine in a short period of time.
00:44:24.000So they launched the war February 24, 2022, and they didn't get Kiev.
00:44:28.000They slowed down very quickly, and that was due to problems with the Russian military, but also because of the, of course, with the support of the Western military for the last decade.
00:44:39.000But it wasn't until May 2022 that Biden says we're going to give you an unconditional blank check war guarantee.
00:44:47.000Hundreds of billions of dollars in supplies, in aid, support from NATO, sanctions, you name it.
00:44:54.000Basically conducting a shadow war against Russia.
00:44:58.000Giving intelligence on Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.
00:45:02.000Sending our own military contractors and mercenaries into Ukraine, giving them strategic advice from NATO officers, giving them armor, giving them artillery, giving them ammunition.
00:45:17.000And this has been going on now for over a year.
00:45:21.000And again, the United States knows that Ukraine can't win.
00:45:26.000What they do know is that if they continue to support Ukraine materially like this, Russia will just suffer more losses.
00:45:33.000It will put more pressure on the Russian state.
00:45:37.000And it will be more costly for them when they eventually win.
00:45:40.000They'll win with a little bit less territory, and it'll cost them a lot more and take them a lot longer.
00:45:53.000It's about the fact that they refuse to recognize Russia's legitimate strategic interest, which is that Russia... Russia does not want to rebuild the Soviet Union.
00:46:45.000And the United States said, well, you can take Ukraine from our cold, dead hands.
00:46:49.000We'll do everything short of going to war to stop you, to make it more costly, and to put maximum pressure.
00:46:58.000And they put Russia in this impossible situation, where either Russia accepts NATO on their doorstep, and NATO controlling the Black Sea, or Russia has to invade.
00:47:08.000Because if Russia invades and loses, well, the people are going to overthrow Putin.
00:47:14.000Because now Russia's been subjected to this extremely costly war that has killed lots of Russians and that has been very injurious to their economy and to global trade.
00:47:25.000And so Putin can't go back to the people after two years of warfare and say, sorry guys, we lost to a very small country with a military the fraction of the size of ours.
00:47:37.000So they force Putin into a situation where it's unacceptable for NATO to be there.
00:48:29.000Even though it's totally unreasonable, even though it's totally ahistorical, and they refused to negotiate, they said, we have to have Ukraine too.
00:48:38.000We have to have a dagger at the throat of Moscow.
00:50:16.000And throughout the Middle East and throughout the former Soviet Union, that's fine.
00:50:22.000You know, because when you overthrow a government with spies and student groups and feminists and the State Department, you know, well that's classy.
00:50:30.000When you go to war with the military, that's barbarism.
00:51:57.000Putin has been forced into a war that he can't lose, but you've made it impossible for him to win.
00:52:04.000And so now the military's breaking down, and the society's breaking down,
00:52:09.000And this collapse in the military is going to cause an uprising across these Russian provinces and allies.
00:52:17.000And not only that, but Ukraine's going to break through, and the war's going to be lost, and the government will be overthrown, and now thousands of nukes are going to fall into the hands of some maniac or someone else we don't even know.
00:53:31.000They're decommissioning nuclear plants and they lost the pipeline.
00:53:35.000So, we're just in a load of trouble and it's because the United States was never willing to entertain the idea that we would conduct a sensible foreign policy that took American interests into consideration.
01:02:50.000Now, how would that make any sense to you?
01:02:53.000You're like one of these black kids that runs into a restaurant
01:02:57.000And start selling world's famous fucking chocolate bars.
01:03:00.000You know, it's like I'm sitting there eating at a restaurant and you get some little black kid, you know, they're selling it for their basketball uniforms.
01:06:21.000And yeah, people might say, well, you've created a ceiling for yourself, you'll never be mainstream, you'll never go to these parties, you'll never be as rich as me, you know, but I would much rather
01:06:35.000I would much rather be outside the club, but be independent, than be inside the club, but it's dependent on sucking some Jew's dick.
01:06:45.000I mean, not to be vulgar, but seriously.
01:07:36.000You know, there's being strategic, and there's compromise, and then there's being compromised.
01:07:41.000And I just... I will not be compromised.
01:07:44.000In the future, this will change a little bit, but at least when I started... You know, people look at it now and they go, why did you do that?
01:08:46.000Now that people look around like a wave, like a domino, they gradually realize, you know, they look to their right, they look to their left, and they see other people are okay with it.
01:08:56.000And, you know, one becomes two, and two becomes four, and four becomes sixteen, and sixteen becomes a thousand, and a thousand becomes a million, you know.
01:09:05.000And so gradually people are becoming more hip, and they're waking up to this stuff, but somebody had to say it first, and like these ideas, I played a not insignificant role in making these things accepted behind the scenes.
01:09:18.000Like a lot of people literally just got red-pilled by talking to me, and people that watch my show,
01:09:24.000The Gruyper army really penetrated the right and red-pilled at the source.
01:10:45.000You know, if my ancestors were bureaucrats and pencil pushers and professionals, maybe I would, you know, maybe I'd be respectable and I'd get my degree.
01:10:55.000You know, my parents want me to get a degree.
01:10:59.000And, you know, my parents at our summer home, they would be so disappointed in me if I didn't, you know, whatever.
01:11:07.000Because class is very much still alive.
01:11:09.000And it's alive because genetics are real.
01:11:12.000My ancestors were all criminals and outlaws.
01:11:56.000Now I've got that same rambunctious Rebellious spirit that's unironically why I'm the tip of the spear because you have a lot of these guys that are maybe smarter than me Or maybe they're more higher IQ than me Better more well-spoken something like that But but I'm the tip of the spear cuz I'm a fucking fighter, okay, I'm a fighter I'm a rebel Like I'd have that engine
01:12:23.000I've got that InGen-like maniac DNA that these other people simply don't have.
01:14:26.000You know, all these other people come in with a little more self-control, and they got the cannon.
01:14:31.000Keith Wood's video catalog, you know, blows up a fucking building, kills all their cavalry, horses are exploding, horse guts exploding everywhere, guy flies off his horse.
01:15:14.000You know, and then these more disciplined, these people with self-control, these high IQ people that read books, you know, they come in with the heavy machinery, they build the systems, they build the institutions.
01:17:06.000Millennial underscore grow I percent ten dollars.
01:17:09.000A couple months ago on a stream, you mentioned briefly something about the genetic similarity of close friends resembling that of cousins, but the subject quickly changed.
01:17:19.000Yeah, there was a study... I saw this in Oon's review, I think.
01:17:25.000Or maybe it was Substack, but it said that the average genetic similarity of lifetime best friends is comparable to a person's third cousin.
01:17:36.000And the spouse was even closer, if I recall correctly.
01:17:39.000I don't remember it verbatim, but that was the point.
01:18:26.000He was going, uh, you know, I started a PAC that supports only men voting, and I said, what a stupid idea, and he's throwing a... Ironically, just like a woman, he threw a big emotional temper tantrum.
01:22:04.000Little bit going into like a dead and dead territory.
01:22:09.000Jim's tattoos sent $5 Nick is up against the global Jewish mafia and rampant simping and female worship put some respect on his name Nick that nigga Fuentes ism Christ is King
01:22:33.000Why don't you just submit to Pope Francis or become a Protestant?
01:35:52.000It's fun and easy to be into this weirdo theosophy stuff because it requires no real commitment.
01:35:58.000You know, it's about as real as their political philosophy.
01:36:02.000You got Lauren Southern having sex with blacks, Hunter Avalon getting cut by a black person, and it's like, in other words, your political philosophy costs you nothing.
01:36:12.000Hardly anybody even takes their own political beliefs seriously.
01:36:16.000Then they join up with these stupid religious stuff
01:36:19.000And just like that, it's something that requires no real commitment.
01:37:05.000Don't take this the wrong way, but with a person as persecuted as you are, how will you be able to have and sustain a family, wife and children?
01:37:13.000I have few theories, but I lack answers.
01:37:16.000I'm just, I'm not even gonna respond to that before I lose my mind.
01:37:32.000I don't know dude, you know, maybe I won't have kids.
01:37:35.000I would very much like to, and I plan to,
01:37:39.000And how I do that is really my business, but it's also not my priority.
01:37:44.000My priority is to be a free and independent man, and if I can't have a wife and kids being a fucking free and independent man, then I'm not gonna have a wife and kids.
01:37:55.000But I'll be able to, and that's because I have Riz.
01:37:59.000And you are a fucking retard, and I hate you.
01:40:29.000Thanks for always providing the best analysis and explanation for things as usual, the 1-2 weeks you were gone felt like an eternity even though Beardson really stepped up and delivered the content.
01:40:39.000I can't wait for the rally, my birthday is a week earlier so it's gonna be my present this year.
01:41:56.000With Mad Riz, dude, I'll find some hot young girl that I'll brainwash into my cult.
01:42:03.000I'll find some 18-year-old zealot and, you know, she'll just be so in love with me because of my charisma that, you know, she's not even gonna care.
01:42:12.000I'm just gonna find some psycho Catholic religious zealot.
01:51:25.000When Abba made that false dichotomy about you choosing a white pagan versus a black Christian, it made my blood boil, acting like it is impossible to find a white Christian wife.
01:51:35.000Yeah, it's a stupid rhetorical question.
01:51:46.000Hmm, would you rather uh, I don't know.
01:51:49.000What's a what's a stupid would you rather question?
01:51:55.000And and they're like no no, but you have to answer would you rather have a Non-white Christian wife or a white atheist wife and you're like, well, I'd like a white Christian wife.
01:54:39.000Well, these are two different questions.
01:54:49.000First of all, you know, I don't think, you know, when you say faggot, I know that's supposed to come across as like, you know, like you're really hardcore, like you're really against that.
01:55:06.000I don't, and I've said this a long time on the show, I don't think being extremely hostile to to so-called trannies or gay people is necessarily the way.
01:55:25.000I think in most cases these people are victims.
01:55:29.000Now they become adults and they become
01:55:32.000Responsible for their actions, but I don't think you can on the one hand say that our kids are being sexualized and our kids are being groomed But then they become adults and you say oh, haha.
01:55:45.000We're gonna fucking kill you like we hate you So, you know, I don't you know, you come on you're like, I'll skip the formalities How do you get for a faggot to Christianity like who talks like that?
01:55:55.000What are you compensating for something?
01:55:57.000I have never cared for that kind of thing.
01:56:00.000And as far as converting gay people to Christianity, it's a big hurdle.
01:56:05.000Because gay people are very invested in not being Christian.
01:56:09.000They're invested in not being Christian because for them, Christianity spells existential danger to their lifestyle, to their chosen lifestyle.
01:56:21.000You know so much of their so much of their world is built around a sin It's the same thing with it's honestly not that much different than anyone that's promiscuous or a hardcore feminist You always see this whenever somebody is super invested in a sinful lifestyle Christianity is like anathema to them.
01:56:42.000They can't have it because they're married to their ways they're married to something else and
01:56:49.000You know, instead of saying, I'll follow God and being moral is my imperative, whatever that means, they say, well, if morality is inconvenient for my life, then fuck morality!
01:57:03.000Morality can't possibly, you know, your morality can't possibly be right!
01:57:08.000If morality means that I can't do whatever it is I want to do, well then that just can't be right.
01:57:14.000Like, if your morality never tells you no, then it's probably not morality.
01:57:21.000You know, I don't think ethics and morality are supposed to follow everything that you would like to have in your life, or everything that's comfortable or easy for you.
01:57:33.000That's a pretty good sign that your morality is not, like you don't have an objective engagement with that conversation, that you're just sort of, you know, dressing up your actions in something that suits them.
01:57:48.000In other words, you're not actually thinking about what's right and wrong, you're thinking about what you want, and justifying it.
01:57:56.000You know, and saying, I'm a good person because as long as I do this, I'm a good person.
01:58:01.000You know, as long as I'm nice, as long as I'm not a frickin' asshole, I'm a good person.
02:00:38.000You know, because that's one of the things that women are good for, is that they're hot.
02:00:42.000Not that they give, like, that they're really good at politics, you know?
02:00:46.000Don't try and tell me, you gotta watch this girl's streamer, but if you say, like, whoa, look at her, it's like, okay, well, that's a little different.
02:00:53.000Now, some people do it, and it's way over the top, and I know what you mean, but I don't think there's anything wrong with it in itself.
02:02:15.000And, you know, it doesn't help that it's a totally promiscuous society.
02:02:20.000And so everywhere, and this goes for everybody, it's pornography, it's people are walking around naked, people are having casual sex all the time.
02:02:30.000It has never been more accessible to see
02:02:34.000Pornography or lewd media, or to have casual sex.
02:02:40.000Maybe in other times when there's a whorehouse, I guess, but it's pretty accessible these days.
02:02:46.000So, you know, unfortunately, like the Bible says, it's a narrow road.
02:02:56.000And you can, you know, you can do what you can, and you can preach the gospel, and you can have that conversation with people, but it's like you said.
02:03:06.000And it's like I said, it's up to people to make the choice.
02:03:09.000God gave us free will, you have to choose.
02:03:11.000And, you know, as far as sin goes, people struggle with sin their entire life.
02:05:01.000I don't like to be near them often because they're violent But I mean, I'm not afraid to speak the truth because of the ramifications in the society.
02:05:09.000I don't want to get hit I don't want to get shot but You know, I'll say it over here where I'm out of I'm out of range of a pack of them a horde or a pack of them on the street So I appreciate that Let's take a look.