00:02:12.000Guys, so it doesn't matter the party, uh, it's the top two, and this is something that they uh they started in California and federal elections in 2012, and then in uh 2016, they had seven congressional districts that were just two Democrats running against each other, they didn't have anything where it was Republicans, so I wonder why they might have done that.
00:02:34.000Uh, it's just a mystery to me with these uh slimy California uh Democrats, but uh, hopefully.
00:02:43.000You know, we're going to see some lockouts there and we'll get some Republicans because the Trump movement there is just a lot better than, you know, what McCain or I'm sorry, not McCain, you know, Romney.
00:02:57.000You know, you weren't going to get the same enthusiasm for him.
00:03:51.000But, yeah, no, the feature of this primary, which makes it different from special elections and other primaries, is the jungle primary feature, which, like you said, it's the top two vote-getters who face off in a general.
00:04:05.000And just to explain that a little bit more thoroughly, this was actually put on the ballot in 2010.
00:04:13.000It was a ballot measure in 2010, went into effect in 2012.
00:04:17.000And the point of it was to prevent polarization.
00:04:21.000If instead of having it like a Republican primary and a Democratic primary, like for other states, if it was just everybody was on the same ballot, they said it would prevent conservatives from going really far to the right to appeal to conservatives and Democrats going really far to the left to appeal to liberals.
00:04:40.000And instead, everybody would just be competing in the same primary.
00:05:27.000When they say it's not fixed, pick one.
00:05:30.000But so the point is with the jungle primary, they're all on the same ballot, and it's supposed to be everyone's appealing to the same votes.
00:05:38.000And as I was saying, some say it succeeded because you have Republicans and Democrats.
00:08:17.000So, anyway, why don't you say something now?
00:08:22.000Well, yeah, so really, ultimately, what we have gotten because, really, because of the whole Trump thing was a whole bunch of Democrats, people voting just down card Democrat, just all around, because they hated Trump so much.
00:08:42.000And you're left with the really far left people, honestly, in.
00:08:51.000So the jungle primary, I don't think that it should be a thing at all, but we can use it to our advantage because so many Democrats this go around have just been running for various seats that we can split that up.
00:09:07.000And if there's only one Republican, if none of them get anything, that's great.
00:09:13.000They'll end up with somebody either not too strong, hopefully, or if we have a couple Republicans there, then they just won't be able to participate at all in the general.
00:09:22.000And that's kind of what we're hoping for.
00:12:44.000So, anyway, as on Bryden, it's unfortunate that you're going to have to hear this twice, but the point that I just made was basically reiterating Bryden's point, which is that because of simple math in the jungle primary, in a lot of these districts, the ratio of Democratic candidates to Republican candidates is such that Republicans have a structural advantage because if there's less Republicans than Democrats, they're going to get a larger.
00:13:13.000So, for example, in the ones that we're looking at where this is a possibility, the 39th, the 48th, and the 49th districts, in the 39th district, for example, you'll have eight Democrats running and six Republicans running.
00:13:27.000Because there's more Democrats than Republicans and they're on the same ticket, you're going to have Republicans, excuse me, by default, basically getting a larger share of the vote.
00:13:58.000We're looking at these 10 races, and why this is such a big deal is because there's only 23 seats that are standing between the Democrats and a majority in the House.
00:14:10.000They only have to flip 23 Republican seats.
00:14:13.000And so you look at a state like California where there's Eight, nine, ten seats up for grabs.
00:14:18.000If they pick up all nine, they're halfway, they're almost halfway to controlling the House.
00:14:24.000If they pick up six, they're a quarter of the way there.
00:14:26.000So that's why, in just one single state, there's a lot at stake here, and that's why we're looking at it.
00:14:32.000But that's, of course, not the only thing we're looking for.
00:14:35.000The other big thing we're looking for, let me get this out of my way, too, because we don't need this.
00:14:40.000The other big thing that we're looking for is this progressive and establishment split in the Democratic Party, which we saw.
00:14:47.000A lot of this in Texas in the primaries.
00:14:49.000We saw some of this in the earlier primaries earlier on in the month.
00:14:54.000But this is really something that's been metastasizing this year and has been since the Bernie Sanders issue in the primary, which is this cleavage in the Democratic Party between the ideological progressives and the establishment moneyed type people.
00:15:11.000And the big problem here is, of course, the young people, the minorities, the super far left people, they break towards very.
00:15:19.000Well, I don't want to say extremist, but a much more principled position than the more pragmatic elements that are in the establishment.
00:15:25.000And you saw this in the Texas primary, split the vote in several elections.
00:15:30.000And I think you'll see this in the California one as well.
00:15:32.000And it'll be interesting to see the turnout, but also to see how the Democrats break.
00:15:53.000They're telling you that it's the sounds not working.
00:15:59.000But yeah, as far as the split between the kind of hyper progressive and the just more establishment types, I don't think you're going to see as much of that in the Southern districts, the Orange County districts.
00:16:17.000Just even looking at the 39th, for example, even the Republican that we have down there that is.
00:16:55.000And the only thing that I have written about him.
00:16:57.000Is Black Wife because he really plays that.
00:17:05.000That's a lot has been spent down there, though, just to try to fight young Kim, who is a pro DACA person, but it's only 34% white, 32% Hispanic, and then there's a lot of Asians because it's Orange County.
00:17:20.000But that one has been a real, real dirty campaign.
00:17:27.000I'm not seeing as much of a split with the.
00:17:31.000Everybody seems too liberal in California to me.
00:17:34.000I mean, you've got any of these guys, they're all kind of running on the open borders, no wall, yay, DACA, let them all in platforms.
00:17:44.000So, and you know, they're going to tax you to death.
00:18:04.000In terms of liberal, you know, like we think what's too liberal, and well, you're in Ohio, and of course, that's obviously very different than the kinds of people that are in Orange County that are in LA.
00:18:14.000And really, I think this is one of the races where, or this is one of the states where demographics is going to be really key, you know, specifically on issues like immigration.
00:18:24.000You know, this is like a bizarro world where most of the Republican Party, most of the country is basically one way on immigration, and you look at some of these districts where they're over 50% Hispanic or there's a plurality of Hispanics, and Immigration is obviously going to play very differently for these kind of candidates than they are in some of the other states.
00:18:43.000And that's why this one's kind of interesting because the conventional logic that we heard in the Pennsylvania special election was to nationalize these state races, make them about national issues, make them about the tax cuts, make them about Trump.
00:19:00.000And in a state like Pennsylvania, that's probably a good idea.
00:19:03.000In a state like Ohio, that's a good idea.
00:19:06.000In the Midwest, in the South, You know, that's probably going to be your best bet.
00:19:10.000In California, it's a little bit different.
00:19:12.000You know, even in Pennsylvania, they said, don't make it about economics, make it about immigration.
00:19:16.000Well, that's a little bit of a challenge in some of these districts where it's either they break a little bit for the left or a lot of it for the left.
00:19:23.000You know, they vary in terms of these contested races from going one point over to the left to 16 points over to the left.
00:19:31.000You know, a lot of these districts were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
00:19:35.000And so, in many ways, these races kind of present a challenge for not just the Democratic Party, but for the GOP.
00:19:42.000You know, we talk a lot about the cleavage, at least I have talked a lot about the cleavage in the Democratic Party between left and, you know, different varying degrees of left and establishment.
00:19:54.000But you also see this in the right, where in many states across the country, the conventional wisdom just won't apply in a lot of these districts.
00:20:02.000And that's where it's really going to come down to the local politics.
00:20:06.000It's really going to come down to the actual contenders in the race as opposed to the more national trends, the more global trends going on.
00:25:56.000And even, I mean, just with these early numbers, 3% reporting in, you know, John Cox, this is mostly, you know, like San Bernardino County is a big one, Riverside County, Fresno County, already just faring a little bit better than I thought.
00:26:14.000I'm not sure if we should really care too much about the governor race.
00:26:18.000I think it's just going to end up being Gavin Newsom.
00:26:21.000But I am just happy that Antonio Villarigosa.
00:26:26.000The former mayor of LA, who I do not like in the least bit.
00:26:29.000I always called him mayor photo shoot because he never did anything, but he hung out with celebrities and went to movie premieres and everything.
00:26:36.000They spent a lot just at the end trying to get anything out of him.
00:26:42.000So, I mean, a part of me is like, all right, I just like watching Hispanics get BTFO'd, but this guy, it's a little personal.
00:26:58.000It looks like my audio fix didn't work, which is puzzling to me because it's telling me that the sound is working, but it's not coming through, I guess.
00:31:58.000This one, this race in particular, not as much as 39, 40, and 49, but California 10 is one that could be where Republicans could shut out the Democrats.
00:34:06.000But right now, it looks like Steve Knight's doing well.
00:34:09.000And I don't know, maybe it's just because of the districts that have reported early, but it looks like in just about all the ones we're looking at so far, Republicans are in pretty good shape, right?
00:34:30.000I know the blue wave is a myth, but something we're always going to have to remember here is a lot of these aren't going to be finished tonight, and they're going to find the votes with all of those absentee ballots that they have because.
00:34:43.000Their excuse is, well, a lot of them don't have steady addresses.
00:34:47.000You're like, oh, they're losers, then I understand.
00:34:50.000But there's already on Twitter a photo of an unlocked ballot box, and we know how these people work.
00:34:57.000They'll find the votes if they're not going to van people in, if they're not going to bust them in, they'll find the votes in absentee ballots.
00:35:05.000So that's why every time that we win anything anywhere, it has to be a blowout.
00:35:11.000It can't be within a few points because one, they're going to claim that we cheated, and two, they'll just find the votes.
00:36:09.000Lately, the numbers from the generic ballot polling have been good, they've been really exceptional when you compare them to what they were like three or four months ago.
00:36:21.000And so this primary is kind of where the rubber hits the road primary season is in full swing now.
00:36:29.000You know, we are in June, so the election is upon us.
00:36:33.000Three or four months ago, when we were talking about Pennsylvania, it was, I think, a little bit easier to say, well, there's a lot more time between now and the election.
00:37:24.000So I think it's, you know, all these races are important in and of themselves for reasons we talked about earlier, and they differentiate a lot from where the nation is.
00:37:39.000I'm going to take some super chats here in a moment, and then we'll do another check on the numbers.
00:37:46.000So, you know, this is actually probably a great way to extort people for super chats because people donate money to complain about the audio.
00:38:56.000I've talked to him on a few different occasions, and I think he's very sincere in what he's doing.
00:39:01.000However, I think the spurgery of that one fluke poll where he got 18% or whatever, which is they polled like 1,000 people and only 400 were likely voters.
00:39:17.000I mean, it was just a really weird poll, and it was used by the media, which we know.
00:39:21.000You know, the lying left wing papers and all of that.
00:39:27.000I think it was an effort to try to motivate the base, being like, look, look, Nazis, they're running, they're running.
00:39:34.000And they're perfectly fine with pedophiles running in Virginia.
00:39:37.000But I think it was an attempt to motivate the base.
00:39:40.000Now, as far as him being permanently unemployable, he's independently wealthy.
00:41:08.000And of course, this was because it was Dianne Feinstein, it was Leon, and then it was him and one other Republican.
00:41:15.000And so if it's four options and you're one of the Republicans, that you get 18% with the, you know, not great name recognition is not really a surprise.
00:41:24.000Of course, they did another poll and he got 0%.
00:41:27.000Some say his name wasn't on that poll, but nevertheless, I mean, If his name's not on the poll, I mean, are people going to pull the lever for him enthusiastically?
00:41:36.000And so that, I think, motivated a lot of the enthusiasm that propelled him into the spotlight.
00:41:45.000But, like you said, of course, I think this was a lot more about the left creating a narrative about what the Republicans are as opposed to, you know, this ascendant white nationalist electorate in California, which we had just never heard about.
00:41:59.000And it's unfortunate because he talked about issues that are important the USS Liberty.
00:42:07.000I mean, these things are real and these things are important and we should talk about them.
00:42:12.000But we have to talk about them with tact.
00:42:14.000We have to talk about them strategically.
00:42:16.000And also, it's really not the place of a candidate to talk about these issues.
00:42:21.000You know, save it for a podcast host, save it for a political activist, you know.
00:42:27.000But when you're running for office, your job is to get elected, your job is to win votes.
00:42:33.000And so I think that's maybe the big misconception where people say, oh, Nick doesn't like Patrick Little.
00:42:39.000I don't even know Patrick Little, so I shouldn't say I don't like him, but they'll say, you know, Nick isn't gung ho about Pat Little.
00:42:45.000That means that he is a shill or that means that he doesn't know about these issues or whatever.
00:42:51.000I think it's actually quite the opposite.
00:42:53.000We care about the same issues, but it's just a question of the time and the place and also the how, because how we talk about the issues is almost just as important.
00:43:02.000So, whereas he goes on television for the media and talks about, you know, in all the most extreme ways where the media is saying, like, oh, yeah, we love.
00:43:12.000We love when you talk about it that way.
00:43:14.000It's very unfortunate for people that are trying to make some of these issues palatable because there is truth to them.
00:43:39.000And it actually started out, it goes, Dianne Feinstein isn't just a Jew.
00:43:46.000And it, it, it, like, if you are in San Francisco and you get this robocall, I really doubt the first thing that you're going to think is, wait, not just a Jew.
00:44:18.000I just, uh, I never got the big hubbub about it, I guess.
00:44:22.000Yeah, it's just kind of like a missed opportunity, you know, because we're really living in a great transformation here, a great reshuffling of politics where you're able to do and say things that previously were not acceptable, were not possible.
00:44:43.000And now you have people like the Spurg right, the Wignat right, who are sabotaging that by.
00:44:51.000By doing it in ways that, you know, like we're not trying to impress the media, but they're doing things that are alienating people.
00:44:57.000They're doing things that are alienating the people that they purport to try to want to convert.
00:45:02.000You know, I mean, they'll always say, well, they'll call you XYZ anyway.
00:45:06.000They'll put you in the same category as Patrick Little anyway.
00:45:09.000Well, of course, it doesn't really matter what the media says.
00:45:15.000You know, conservatives, I think for the most part, are discerning.
00:45:18.000They can distinguish between somebody who's called something and it's not true versus somebody who's called something and it, you know, basically is true.
00:45:25.000In the sense that you have a much better chance of reaching somebody if you have a message that is straightforward, clear, appeals to their interests, is dressed up in nice rhetoric and good optics, as opposed to somebody in a costume throwing up Roman salutes.
00:49:53.000But yeah, it's just unfortunate to see because for so long, you know, it's just very sad, I think, to see that this state has basically been completely overtaken.
00:50:08.000You know, I mean, you look at a state like California in a national election and federal election and all that, and even in these smaller elections, and this used to be a competitive state before mass immigration.
00:50:19.000I mean, that's the name of the game here.
00:50:29.000Was the last time it was won by a Republican.
00:50:31.000But I mean, you know, whether it was 84 or 88, it was competitive.
00:50:36.000And you could have somebody winning it.
00:50:37.000And now it's, you know, just forget about it.
00:50:40.000And I think we'll see the same story in Texas.
00:50:42.000We'll see the same story in Arizona, in New Mexico.
00:50:45.000And so, you know, we're watching it tonight.
00:50:48.000And we're watching the individual races, of course.
00:50:50.000We're watching to see what it's going to look like in 2018.
00:50:54.000But you look at just about every one of these, for the most part, in SoCal and increasingly in Northern California, just because of how the state has been run into the ground by the statewide leadership.
00:51:06.000It's going to be very hard to be competitive here or really anywhere else in the Southwest.
00:51:10.000So it's just, you know, you look at these kinds of numbers and it's just sad to see, you know, overwhelming, overwhelming grief over the loss of a great state.
00:51:22.000Well, to stay on the LA point here, if we look at the 25th here, Steve Knight, it's less than 1% reporting, but he's still pretty healthy with 54% here.
00:51:33.000And that's the only Republican in LA County.
00:51:36.000So, I don't know really what that's going to mean, you know, for the Senate and the governor races with LA, but there's at least a small contingency.
00:51:47.000I don't know what neighborhoods in LA have already come in, but at the risk of sounding a little too hopeful, I'm going to.
00:51:55.000That's a nice thing until it all comes in and we're screwed.
00:52:01.000It sucks because I go to LA and it's great weather, it's nice out, you know, but.
00:52:08.000But I mean, this city is the prototype for what American cities will look like in the future.
00:52:14.000Well, maybe Miami is a better example, but I guess LA, because it's got a more distinctly Mexican characteristic as opposed to the Cuban and Miami.
00:52:21.000But this is the prototype for the future of the country, where it's the ethnic enclaves.
00:52:25.000It's going to be minority white, of course, and it'll have that Mexican character.
00:56:29.000Somebody asked about, I know this is not the one we're focusing on, but I do want to pay attention to Maxine Waters' district, 43, because Omar Navarro is a nice fella and quite popular.
00:56:43.000There's nothing coming in for that yet, but I'd really like to see him debate Maxine Waters.
00:56:48.000He trolls her pretty hard on the internet.
00:56:52.000Yeah, no, he's had a pretty interesting campaign in the sense that this is not like a competitive district, of course, but.
00:57:02.000Through the power of his social media on a national level, you have seen him, I think, able to get an outsized impact that he wouldn't normally have, which it kind of just goes to show it is possible to be competitive using social media.
00:57:18.000You know, we talk a lot about, for example, Paul Nealon and the Patrick Littles.
00:57:24.000And one of the problems is the fact that they may have a big social media following and they may get a lot of retweets on Twitter.
00:57:31.000But if you're running in a congressional district, How many of those are coming from the first district of Wisconsin?
00:57:36.000How many of those are coming from, in the case of Omar Navarro, this district?
00:57:41.000And so that's one of, I think, the criticisms of that kind of a strategy.
00:57:44.000It's obviously better to focus on campaigning within the district as opposed to trying to pander on social media, which is national and even, in many cases, international.
00:57:54.000But it's interesting to see because Omar Navarro, of course, has been doing that.
00:57:58.000And he's been doing these periscopes where he gets a lot of views on it and he's been getting a lot of engagement on Twitter.
00:58:05.000And it really has rocketed him into, at this juncture, with 5% reporting, it looks like somewhat of a competitive position here.
00:58:14.000And that kind of trolling, that kind of viral campaign, it just goes to show that done in the right way, done in a tactful way, with the right optics, with the right message, I think you really can get a good outcome here.
00:58:26.000You know, I think Donald Trump basically did that.
01:00:28.000So 19% reporting in the fourth district.
01:00:33.000McClintock, of course, is doing great, but that's still one I was a little worried about.
01:00:37.000I do want to go back to the 48th here.
01:00:42.000It's still less than 1% reporting, but how much do you think the assault on Rohrbacher with his quote unquote, he was actually called Putin's, I think it was Politico called him Putin's favorite congressman.
01:00:59.000I don't know if that's going to make an effect or not.
01:01:02.000I mean, it still is Orange County, but I mean, he is being investigated.
01:01:07.000So, I mean, Scott Bogg, or however you say his name here, that was the guy that was supposed to ruin it for the Democrats.
01:02:24.000And in Scott Bao, there's 10 different races.
01:02:28.000I didn't Google how to pronounce the names.
01:02:31.000I remember in Pennsylvania, people were just beating the shit out of me because I said, what was the one district that I was mispronouncing?
01:02:42.000It was like, I don't even remember, but they were really.
01:02:45.000People from Pennsylvania are like, it's not pronounced this way, it's pronounced.
01:02:50.000But this guy was actually a protege of Rohrbacher, this Republican.
01:02:54.000And so he was, like you said, he was supposed to be the Republican who was going to take him over or at least make it a safe Republican seat because this is his former protege and obviously doesn't have the controversy.
01:03:06.000So he's like a viable alternative here.
01:03:09.000But like you said, Kierstead's taking the lead here.
01:03:12.000What's interesting about Ruta, Harley Ruta, she's actually a former Republican.
01:03:43.000But Ruda, she's kind of got this moderate appeal, like this crossover thing where because she is a former Republican, Maybe she thinks she can kind of pivot that.
01:03:53.000It doesn't look like it's working, at least with less than 1% reporting in.
01:03:57.000But it's a very interesting mixed bag here.
01:04:00.000This one's very, you know, because it's not your usual components.
01:04:05.000It's personalities, it's different backings and styles and strategies.
01:04:11.000So this will be one to watch for sure, to be sure.
01:04:16.000Well, a trend that I've seen in a few of these is it's very rich people who've never run for office before.
01:04:23.000And I wonder if that's going to be something.
01:04:25.000Thing that the Democrats try to push with more is, you know, oh, this is, they're an outsider, they're an outsider.
01:04:33.000And, well, they're not, you know, I mean, it's not the same at all.
01:04:36.000But we saw in 2016, people like the outsider.
01:04:40.000I mean, if Hillary hadn't cheated Bernie Sanders, who knows what would have happened with old Bernie there with the Democrat Party.
01:04:46.000And he painted himself as an outsider just because nobody ate with him in the cafeteria in D.C.
01:04:54.000But it, It might end up being rather interesting as we get closer, even just to like 2020 and what have you, with these so called outsiders.
01:05:07.000Because Rowdy had actually never run for office, I don't believe.
01:06:01.000That it's just like rich people, like rich assholes who have nothing better to do, I guess.
01:06:06.000But it is kind of curious that the outsider appeal that Trump brought, that in many ways was populist, was appealing to the forgotten people, the working class, in many ways has opened the door, at least for, I think, a lot of Democratic primaries, not just in California, but in other places as well, for just like rich, elitist type peoples.
01:06:26.000And so we'll see how that'll change, not just at the local level, but also at the national level coming up, you know, because now you hear about people like Oprah and The Rock and all kinds of other people running for office.
01:08:20.000So it's no longer live breaking coverage.
01:08:24.000It has now become an intimate gathering of friends who are now just trying to get.
01:08:29.000It's like in those inspiring stories when an Olympic runner breaks his leg during the race, but he still finishes the race because he crosses the finish line 40 hours later.
01:08:42.000But it just mattered that he finished him.
01:11:44.000I mean, I would think Los Angeles would be like DC where it'd be nothing, but maybe those are precincts that are not downtown or something, right?
01:12:24.000East Los, you know, that's all Hispanic.
01:12:26.000So you're not going to get any Republican, but you're probably not going to get a lot of turnout.
01:12:31.000West LA, I won't underestimate the amount of people that would say, I don't, you know, I don't vote Republican and then do, especially after Jerry Brown has essentially ruined this state.
01:12:48.000And Gavin Newsom is kind of just the expected guy and would be a continuation of Jerry Brown.
01:12:54.000And his just this is the guy that raised the state minimum wage.
01:12:58.000And after he's when asked, like, why he goes, I don't know, what's the worst thing that can happen?
01:13:04.000So they might be sick of this a little bit.
01:13:06.000I'm not sure if he'll take it in the general, but it might look good for John Cox.
01:13:11.000That would be, I'd be pleasantly surprised.
01:13:35.000And so on 538, they talked about how there's the crowding out problem for Democrats in the jungle primary.
01:13:41.000But they said that kind of the double edged sword of this is that in the statewide races, the Senate and the governor, If you have two Democrats in both of those races and Republicans are shut out from the statewide races, they say that the effect that that will have is that it will drag the entire state left.
01:14:00.000All the contests will go left because they say that the two governor candidates or the two Senate candidates, because they've got more money and it's statewide races and there's more name recognition, obviously, than local candidates, the effect it'll have is it'll drive up turnout for the Democrats.
01:14:18.000And so when we say we want John Cox to land in number two or we want Travis Allen, if he pulls it out, to land in number two to face off in the general, it's not totally to say that they could win.
01:14:32.000Or that they would have a shot, or that would be great.
01:14:35.000But really, we want them just in the top two so that we could have that effect where it's not going to drag the state to the left if it's just two Democrats.
01:14:44.000And I think there's a lot of truth to that.
01:14:45.000I think people tend to look more at the bigger elections, the governor, the Senate, than they do maybe the local stuff.
01:14:52.000And certainly, if you're talking about smaller races, that's probably true in smaller counties with smaller populations.
01:14:58.000So I think that's definitely there's a lot of truth to that.
01:15:01.000And right now, John Cox is doing pretty well.
01:15:04.000I mean, It remains to be seen in those like super districts or super counties where it's going to be like LA or San Francisco.
01:15:12.000But, you know, so far he's not doing poorly.
01:15:19.000About 150,000 votes shy of Gavin Newsom, 8%.
01:15:24.000That's not the end of the world, at least with 15% reporting.
01:15:27.000Well, and San Bernardino County hasn't come in yet.
01:15:30.000And that is typically going to sway red.
01:15:36.000So, you You know, the big high population areas, the coastal places there, we've seen a little bit of San Francisco coming in here.
01:15:46.000If I can ever get to it, you know, like Alameda County and things like that, where it's very, very liberal.
01:15:55.000But when you get closer to, I don't know, real America, they just live out in the desert and just farm sand and have like median incomes of, you know, 40,000 and they're still paying these outrageous Jerry Brown taxes and these like, let's.
01:16:10.000Build a bullet train from LA to San Francisco.
01:17:21.000But yeah, no, it'll be interesting to see once these counties come in on both sides, the partisan left and the partisan right, how these things will fall into place.
01:17:35.000And of course, we're not going to know until the end what the turnout's going to look like.
01:17:39.000The turnout's going to be a big deciding factor as well.
01:17:42.000You know, if we see that the Democrats come into the top two spots, but the turnout is.
01:17:49.000Or they don't come away with as big of a margin because of spoiler candidates, particularly progressives or like ethnic candidates.
01:17:58.000I think that'll give us a pretty good insight into where the party will go, where the election will go in 2018.
01:18:04.000Because, of course, the trick is for a lot of these candidates is maybe you get both Democrats in the top two spots, or maybe you get a Democrat and a Republican.
01:18:15.000But the trick is that a lot of the progressives have been increasingly reluctant and hesitant to rally around the candidate.
01:18:24.000They were willing to do that in 2016 when it was Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump because they were told.
01:18:30.000Well, Hillary's got the better chance of winning.
01:18:33.000And if you don't vote for Hillary, like you're a bad person because Trump is a fascist and all the rest.
01:18:37.000Well, after she lost, that argument loses basically all credibility.
01:18:42.000So, you know, let's say in some of these congressional races and some of these other races, let's say the establishment candidate gets in and they don't get locked out by Republicans.
01:18:52.000For example, on the 39th, the 48th, and the 49th.
01:18:55.000Or, I'm sorry, the 39th, the 48th, and the 49th.
01:18:59.000Well, who's to say that the progressives, who's to say that some of these other candidates, And their supporters are going to rally around the Democrats.
01:19:06.000I mean, I certainly think there's going to be a big call to do that, but how much will it be heeded by the people?
01:19:12.000I think they've been basically burned by their party.
01:19:14.000So it'll be, it'll, it's a variable in this election more so than it was in previous midterms.
01:19:22.000Well, and this is the thing too that came out this morning from the Sacramento Bee, really just complaining.
01:19:29.000So why is primary turnout expected to be low?
01:19:34.000Only about 25%, it says here, actually cast their votes, which is so funny considering how easy it is.
01:19:42.000But they're looking at around 32% this year.
01:19:46.000But, you know, they have all these marches and all these things.
01:19:48.000And even some of these candidates went to that downtown, you know, the hat march and all of that.
01:19:56.000I think a lot of these people are the big burnouts of things.
01:20:00.000I mean, hey, there you go, California.
01:20:01.000That's what happens when you legalize weed.
01:20:04.000You know, they're just not going to show up to vote.
01:20:08.000But they will show up to these social networking events where they can go hold a sign, a virtue signal about how much they hate the president.
01:20:15.000But it comes to actually getting things done.
01:20:31.000I mean, it's interesting because the Democrats have put their stock and invested almost everything in.
01:20:37.000The categories of people that turn out the least.
01:20:40.000You know, you look at Hispanic voter turnout, it's the lowest out of any group.
01:20:44.000Black voter turnout is very depressed compared to white voter turnout.
01:20:49.000Young people, the turnout is abysmal compared to boomers or even older people or slightly younger people.
01:20:57.000So I will say that in the midterms, Republicans have several structural advantages.
01:21:02.000They have the structural advantage of they gerrymandered the districts in 2010 because they controlled.
01:21:08.000A lot of the state governments and they controlled the House in 2010, and they were really ascendant after two years of Obama.
01:21:15.000They really had a hand in redrawing all the districts.
01:21:18.000And so, because of those structural advantages, we're still winning the lottery basically because of that in 2018 in congressional races where they're tailor made for Republicans.
01:21:32.000And then, additionally, in the midterms, Republicans have always done better than Democrats, always.
01:21:37.000Republicans have always outperformed them.
01:21:39.000And that's, I think, the simple fact because Republican demographics are the ones that are going to turn out reliably to vote.
01:21:48.000It's people that are, you know, I don't know if we want to get into some other characteristics, but I mean, they're a little bit more reliable, you know?
01:21:55.000And so that's another thing I think where there are some strengths that Republicans are going into.
01:22:03.000We have to be careful not to overstate them, but they definitely are there.
01:22:08.000The Democrats, we know their advantages.
01:22:11.000The time is on their side in the long term, but in a big way, we've got a fighting chance here.
01:22:16.000And that's why it's important to get out and vote.
01:22:18.000Like you said, the Democrats, they're going to go out and put up their signs and do their fundraiser and that, and they're going to tweet.
01:22:25.000But obviously, in 2016, they didn't turn out to vote.
01:22:28.000And they're going to try and correct that in 2018.
01:22:30.000I think that's a little bit of a cause for anxiety because the big message, in my perception, is that Democrats are like vengeful.
01:22:41.000You know, they're pissed because they're like, we let that through our fingertips that Donald Trump got elected because we didn't vote.
01:23:57.000He's got anonymous masks all over the place.
01:24:00.000A buddy of mine in California texted me today to tell me he cast his vote for Governor Wildstar.
01:24:09.000I asked him about Patrick Goodall, and he had to go check because he said, I just voted for the ones I didn't recognize.
01:24:16.000I just voted for people with white sounding names, which I think, honestly, I mean, that's another thing that might help us with a lot of things.
01:24:26.000It's like if some of the people on here, I saw one that I can't even remember where it was, but it was like Amar Abba Jibba Dooba Doo.
01:24:37.000And, you know, if you can't pronounce it, you know, you don't want that person in charge.
01:24:41.000I mean, that sounds bad, but it's just accurate.
01:24:45.000And I think, especially the Asians, will, you know, be attracted to that type of thing.
01:32:23.000And actually, you know, it's actually, I should say this.
01:32:28.000That strategy, like, if it were going to work anywhere, it would work in California.
01:32:35.000Because California is the most populous state, and you've got all kinds of people there.
01:32:41.000It's got the second most populous city, LA.
01:32:44.000So actually, and it's also, he's running for statewide office.
01:32:48.000So if anybody was going to gain traction using, A nationwide platform like a Twitter or a YouTube or something like that, it would be in California or New York or Illinois.
01:33:01.000You know, it would be that because just in terms of proportions, a lot more people live in California than live in like one congressional district in a given state.
01:33:11.000So, to their credit, you know, it's not the worst strategy in the world, not the worst place you could run it.
01:33:17.000But, nevertheless, let this be a lesson to all.
01:33:22.000This is what your strategy has wrought.
01:34:08.000And you're actually being a rather bit disrespectful to.
01:34:11.000All of the men and women in middle America that were like, you know what, I don't like that fellow that we let run everything for eight years and he ran everything into the ground.
01:34:21.000And I don't like these people burning down cities and things like that.
01:34:58.000I'm not even sure if he filed to run yet over in Wisconsin with our friend Paul Nealon.
01:35:06.000So it's retweets, unless you're Donald Trump, retweets aren't really going to get you anything.
01:35:12.000And it wasn't the retweets that got Donald Trump elected, it was just some serious.
01:35:17.000Talking to people in a way that they had never been spoken to before about things that they actually do care about.
01:35:25.000Most people, they just want to come home from their job and have a six pack and hope that they can have a conversation with their kid and then have some boring missionary sex with their wife that they haven't loved for a long time.
01:35:42.000But no, that's a really dark way of putting it things.
01:35:45.000But if you talk to just normal people, I don't want to say workers because it sounds like a commie.
01:35:50.000But if you just talk to normal people, you're going to do a lot better.
01:35:54.000And if you turn the party into a populist party, you're going to do a lot better.
01:35:59.000We're not winning any favors with Charlottesville's.
01:36:04.000And really, what it just comes down to at the end of the day is, and this is what it came down to for me after Charlottesville, was I looked at Charlottesville and I saw the personal cost for a lot of people, which was lost their jobs, lost, you know, kicked out of school.
01:36:20.000Families ostracized them, banned from social media, tremendous personal costs to people involved, to the leaders of it.
01:36:30.000And I was always asking, well, what's the benefit?
01:37:45.000You work your way up the process, whether it's the party system, whether it's the election system, whatever it is, but you get in civilian government.
01:37:53.000And the way to do that is tactically, the way to do that is by being smart.
01:37:58.000And you look at a guy like Paul Nealon, for example, and here's why he was a genius initially.
01:38:04.000In 2016, when I was on his campaign, he was running as an America First conservative.
01:38:14.000He had national people campaigning for him.
01:38:17.000And he didn't do great, but he was facing a pretty strong candidate in Paul Ryan.
01:38:22.000Well, this year, think of what would have happened if he followed the same course, maybe that he was pursuing in like fall or summer of 2017.
01:38:31.000If he had this America First aesthetic, America First rhetoric, but was also introducing some other select issues.
01:38:41.000Paul Nealon wins the primary, he becomes a national figure, maybe wins the election, now he's in Congress.
01:38:47.000Would it have behooved him to win the election first before he went full, before he started talking about things in an unfiltered, uncensored way?
01:38:57.000And it obviously went too far in many ways, but would it have behooved him, would it behoove us to first get into office or first gain institutional power before we start to try and change the way things are than outside?
01:39:11.000Because now Paul Nealon is just a guy.
01:39:13.000Now he's just some guy on the internet.
01:40:48.000Do you want to feel good about yourself?
01:40:50.000And, you know, oh, I did something really edgy.
01:40:52.000Or do you want to do the dirty work, which is not fun, by the way, but get power?
01:40:58.000I mean, that's what we're after at the end of the day.
01:41:01.000And what that requires is to win elections.
01:41:02.000What that requires is to convert people, to get people to vote for you, normal people who don't have time to read Culture of Critique and the Israel Lobby, who just care about the economy and healthcare.
01:41:13.000Win them on healthcare and the economy, get into office, and then you're in office.
01:41:30.000There's a reason people are saying that.
01:41:32.000There are active elements within the movement that are, I think, either they're stupid or they're controlled opposition, which are telling people that if you have resources, if you have electoral power, you must be a sellout.
01:41:48.000If you're a verified Twitter user, if you have more than 50,000 subs on YouTube or Twitter, oh, well, you must be controlled opposition.
01:41:56.000If you have any kind of cloud or leverage or resources, oh, well, you must be controlled.
01:42:00.000So, the only people that get the stamp of approval by the small click are people who have nothing, who they only can show up to a rally and yell?
01:42:49.000The other Democrat, Josh Butner, 13.7.
01:42:53.000So with 14% reporting here, only 50 out of the 370 precincts, I'm not going to get too terribly excited, but it's still within the realm of possibility.
01:43:07.000So, again, just happy to have somebody in the race.
01:43:11.000And it is funny that they just put a lot of those people out there that campaigned pretty hard and oftentimes quite a bit against each other.
01:43:21.000So, I mean, it's nice to watch them have to reap what they sow there.
01:43:38.000And the ones that we're really looking at for that, I mean, that one was kind of a long shot in terms of District 50, if that was going to be a lockout.
01:43:45.000I think even without the lockout, Duncan Hunter's got such a strong lead.
01:43:49.000They haven't confirmed him yet, but that seems like a pretty hefty lead for him to take.
01:43:54.000I got to imagine things won't evolve much different than this.
01:43:58.000But the real ones we're looking at for the lockout are 49, 48, 39.
01:45:21.000But in these districts where we need Republicans to win, the numbers are good right now.
01:45:26.00026, to be up 10 points is good for right now.
01:45:30.000I mean, of course, the important thing is that the Democrats have, you know, they've got one here, they've got five here, they've got five here, and five here, and eight here, and 16 here.
01:45:42.000So maybe add up all the Democrats and add up all the Republicans, it's a different story.
01:45:46.000But nevertheless, that you have such consolidation around one candidate that they've got 26 at this point, and some of these higher numbers, like in the 50th, where he was at 50%, and In 48, where they're 29 and 24.
01:46:02.000I don't know, cautiously optimistic about California.
01:46:05.000Omar Navarro is still looking pretty good, too.
01:46:07.000So that's, I know I keep harping on this, but I really do want to see that debate.
01:46:14.000That would just make my life so much better.
01:46:17.000I'd be like, oh, I know that guy that just called our Aunt Jemima.
01:46:30.000Well, you know, what's cool about the jungle primary system is that you're like, he's, I don't want to say he in particular is guaranteed, but basically, if it's one of these districts where it's an uncontested candidate,
01:46:45.000and typically you don't have like a strong Republican candidate or whatever, it could be easy for somebody who's motivated and who's got infrastructure or a presence on social media to propel themselves into some kind of prominence through this, you know, because Omar Navarro.
01:47:02.000In any other election, like 2,500 votes would not be crazy and 15% would not be huge.
01:47:08.000But in this system, because of the jungle primary and because of the nature of the race that he's in, where it's Maxine Waters who generally is never going to be contested in a serious way, you could probably propel yourself quite easily into the general.
01:47:23.000And in doing so, you do gain some notoriety, some prominence.
01:47:27.000So that might be a strategy we can look at across the board, not just California, but for.
01:47:33.000Our grassroots people in other elections.
01:47:53.000You know, I think there was something with campaign funds or something.
01:47:57.000And this is true with all the Chicago politicians.
01:47:59.000This guy was a literal crook where, and totally an unprofessional guy.
01:48:03.000Like it was obvious that he was just some.
01:48:06.000You know, one of these race hustlers or something.
01:48:09.000But he ran uncontested for like a decade.
01:48:12.000And there's a perfect example, like in this case or in that case, where if you just had a well funded and organized candidate, like a Republican who was maybe moderate or something, you could definitely start to build support.
01:48:24.000You could definitely pull away, I think, with some percentage, which is respectable, and maybe pull it off another time.
01:48:31.000So I think there's a lot to be learned here.
01:48:43.000And then if you have that name recognition and you keep going after it over and over and over again, I know that Omar has raised more money this go around than he did the last go around.
01:48:53.000So, yeah, maybe he gets there, maybe he doesn't, but she's got to retire eventually.
01:49:30.000Now that we've got the stream figured out, the tech is good, we've recovered in a big way.
01:49:35.000You should see the analytics for the stream.
01:49:37.000It was like, you know, we were like 600 and then collapses with the audio issues, collapses when the stream shuts off and then shoots back up.
01:51:03.000And there's liberals who believe this Ryan Dawson, Keith Ellison, people like me.
01:51:08.000But when you get people out there that are like lunatics talking about this stuff, they don't talk about it in a tactful and controlled way.
01:51:16.000That's when it's like palatable, marketable, and true ideas can get swept into the dustbin because people are going to be alienated and it sends the wrong message.
01:54:37.000It's kind of interesting to see because you remember earlier in the year there was talk of a blue wave in like Texas.
01:54:43.000They said the blue wave was so powerful, it'll bring the Democrats to power in Texas.
01:54:48.000And you see quite clearly, if the blue wave stuff were true, like Devin Nunes wouldn't be able.
01:54:54.000And Kevin McCarthy, like Republicans generally speaking, if there was this crazy blue wave that was.
01:55:00.000Like overturning red states, and it was reversing the Republican skew by 20 points, you would see a lot different numbers in a lot of these races.
01:55:09.000So, I guess we should be a little bit rest assured that in these Republican districts, we're not getting blown out right now.
01:55:18.000Well, on the subject of the blue wave, I wonder how much of it was just media BS even to begin with, because immediately after they lost terribly because they lost to Donald Trump, how could that have ever happened?
01:57:04.000We're having a little bit of difficulty.
01:57:06.000Let me switch off the studio mode so I could show you here.
01:57:09.000And we're looking right now at the generic congressional vote, which the generic ballot is they say, would you vote for Republican or a Democrat in your congressional race?
01:57:21.000And not in a particular one, but just the party.
01:57:23.000This is a pretty good indicator of 2018.
01:57:26.000And you look at the trend line here, and this is in December of 2017.
01:57:33.000Democrats were up by 13 points, 12.8, 12.9, 11.
01:57:38.000I mean, you go from really just starting about in December until the end.
01:58:02.000And you look at any of the polling here, it's plus one in this poll, it's plus two in this poll, plus three.
01:58:07.000And many of them, it's less than the average, 3.2.
01:58:11.000You could look at some of them, I think.
01:58:14.000There should be a couple where it's Republicans that are up.
01:58:16.000Maybe they don't include that in the RCP.
01:58:19.000But nevertheless, you hear all this talk about Blue Wave, but at least now, it's not reflected in the numbers.
01:58:25.000At least for about a month, we've had Democrats less than 6% lead in the generic ballot.
01:58:34.000And it's worth mentioning, by the way, that Democrats are estimated to require seven points, at least.
01:58:42.000And these are the most conservative estimates.
01:58:46.000That says that you need seven points for Democrats to be competitive in the House.
01:58:50.000The most, or rather, the most liberal.
01:58:52.000The most conservative estimates say that Democrats will require 11 point advantage to compete for the House in 2018 because of that structural gerrymandering advantage.
01:59:03.000So you imagine that if Democrats are at 3.2% now and they need anywhere between seven and 11 points to win back the House, that's not a blue wave.
01:59:42.000And then David Hogg just got on everybody's nerves.
01:59:46.000I don't know what they are going to be able to run on other than Chuck Schumer trying to.
01:59:51.000Steal the president's ideas and claim them as his own.
01:59:56.000Or I think, honestly, if I had to make just a gut guess, I'd say it's going to be the abortion issue, which that isn't even going to resonate with enough people because half of women don't agree with abortion.
02:00:13.000They're just kind of a party without a purpose or a platform at this point, other than I'm not Donald Trump.
02:01:45.000Let's look at them starting from left to right.
02:01:48.000So, we'll start with 10 and 45 here, and we'll just take a look to give you an idea of what these toss ups, this blue wave type stuff, is looking like.
02:01:56.000So, for example, number 10, you've got Jeff Denham, who's the incumbent with 40% of the vote.
02:02:03.000You add up the Democrats, and you get what would that be?
02:05:02.000And I can't wait for just the only blue wave will just be the tears and tears and the buckets of tears when they realize something has happened that hasn't happened since when?
02:05:25.000And I don't know if they're going to go more to the center.
02:05:29.000I think they're going to try to do that more on the federal level.
02:05:32.000And I am looking out for, you know, we saw four DSA people, the Democratic Socialists Association, or whatever they are in Pennsylvania, got elected.
02:05:43.000And that's something we need to look out for.
02:05:44.000But when they're that demoralized, I wonder how they're even going to get anybody motivated for 2020.
02:05:53.000I mean, it could just get worse and worse and worse for them.
02:05:57.000And they're broke anyway, the whole party's broke.
02:06:51.000And actually, if we take advantage of the things we have going for us, like you said, which is the money, the Democrats are broke, they have no money.
02:07:00.000Republicans, the National Party, the leadership funds, the PACs are juiced up.
02:07:05.000To the max, we have the gerrymandered districts.
02:07:08.000I mean, there's so many things we have going for us.
02:07:10.000All we have to do is execute it, and that means you got to go out to volunteer and also you got to go out to vote.
02:07:15.000But if we execute on those things in 2018, it is absolutely a possibility, possibly even a likelihood.
02:08:09.000And Travis Allen's right behind him with 11.
02:08:12.000And, you know, it's a little bit, it's kind of a toss up right now.
02:08:15.000There's only 600 votes, I guess, that separate him and the Dem here.
02:08:18.000But nevertheless, Gavin Newsom, 34, John Cox, 26.
02:08:25.000Very well, you could see him in the race for governor.
02:08:27.000If that's the case, you're going to see, we'll avoid that effect of locking Republicans out and maybe driving, or rather suppressing, turnout on the right.
02:08:36.000So some optimistic things so far, but we're still not seeing a lot of the vote come in.
02:08:43.000I don't think any of the races we have more than 50, except for the one with Rohrbacher, right?
02:08:48.000And that just says a lot about California in general, I think.
02:10:02.000But, uh, You know, I would go there for the weather.
02:10:05.000I would go there because, like, things are happening and it's cool.
02:10:09.000But the traffic, I was in there for like, I was in traffic for hours.
02:10:13.000I flew over there, and a friend of my dad's picked me up from the airport who's going to lend me his car, and he drove me back out to, like, Monrovia.
02:10:32.000And not only that, but then there's the earthquake, which I legitimately fear.
02:10:36.000And I don't know how people are not like, I don't know how people are not terrified of that every day.
02:10:44.000Because you're hearing about all these, there's something going on between all the earthquakes in California and Mexico and Iran, like all over the world, the volcanic eruptions, the plane crashes.
02:10:57.000I don't know how people could live like that every day knowing that something of that magnitude is a statistical certainty within like three decades.
02:11:08.000So I will never live there for that reason.
02:11:12.000It's something that you just kind of learn to live with.
02:11:15.000You know, like, oh, the apocalypse will come at any time now, but, you know, I'm just trying not to get robbed at the local taco stand.
02:14:49.000It only just feels like that, I guess, because when it's late here, I wish I had the extra hours, but of course, you know, it's not how time works.
02:15:28.000We've got Swift who says, problem with the Republican system, small r, Is that it's impossible for a candidate of the people to win a primary.
02:15:42.000Yeah, no, I mean, that's increasingly the problem as time has progressed.
02:15:48.000As financial instruments have been invented and the economy has grown, you've seen the concentration of resources and wealth in much greater magnitude in the hands of fewer and fewer people.
02:16:01.000Like, before you had wealthy people, but it was unquestionable that the state was the most wealthy.
02:16:06.000And aside from like landowners, there were very few like really wealthy merchants.
02:16:11.000But now you have like these mega financial interests where they've got more money than some countries.
02:16:18.000And, you know, of course they could buy politicians.
02:16:21.000And Club for Growth is, that's of course Grover Norquist's.
02:16:25.000Or no, that's Grover Norquist's is the tax people.
02:21:03.000It's that short term thinking, the kicking the can down the road and those maybe not so unintended consequences.
02:21:12.000Maybe for some it was unintended, but certainly I think for others it was quite intended.
02:21:18.000But yeah, it is in America in a lot of these places.
02:21:21.000We're looking at the governor here, and I'm very optimistic about the governor, John Cox.
02:21:28.000It just goes to show how much power the president has because he gave a very explicit endorsement of Cox on Twitter today and over the week.
02:21:37.000And I think that's carried a lot of weight here.
02:21:40.000And of course, as I look at the counties that have come in, the problem here is LA, where it's 300, less than 300 out of 4,357 precincts.
02:21:54.000So, you know, it's not even close to being counted, and that's going to be a big sort of, it's going to be a big Dem stronghold for both Newsom and the other guy.
02:22:04.000So I think that's why we're seeing that he's still doing so well.
02:22:08.000But, you know, by the same token, San Bernardino is not.
02:22:35.000He was like, the Republicans are going to get cut by the jungle primary system too because they'll get cut out of the governor and the Senate.
02:23:36.000That would change a lot if we could get the governorship in California.
02:23:41.000But it just was written in such a hopeful little way of just this scared little man whose world is changing around him in a way that actually benefits people that aren't living in the hills sniffing their own farts.
02:27:32.000And it actually shows that we can get a lot of these never Trump people hopefully out of there.
02:27:38.000I mean, we're fundamentally changing the party.
02:27:40.000And ultimately, if we continue down this path, changing the country and saving it without the risk of sounding dramatic, I don't think it's that dramatic.