00:01:53.000I think that the only thing that we can be certain about tonight before anything actually happens is that it's going to be a toss up.
00:02:00.000It's going to be completely unpredictable.
00:02:02.000We've been watching the polls the past four that have come out have either Connor Lamb up by a few or Rick Saccon up by a few.
00:02:09.000They averaged almost neck and neck within the margin of error.
00:02:12.000And it's tough because, on the one hand, we know about this district, about the 18th district.
00:02:17.000It's right on the border of West Virginia, it's in the suburbs of Pittsburgh.
00:02:20.000We know that this district skews about 20% Republican in the last presidential election, in the previous one, in the past eight congressional elections in this particular seat.
00:02:31.000But by the same token, we see a candidate in Connor Lamb who is a blue dog Democrat.
00:02:37.000If there are any remaining, I think he represents it a young guy, a Marine, social conservative, somebody who supports President Trump's pro union, pro blue collar worker message.
00:02:47.000And so I think it's pretty interesting how, on the one hand, this, by all intents and purposes, Should be a Republican district, but yet you have somebody like Connor Lamb competing.
00:02:56.000What do you think that says about the Democratic Party?
00:02:59.000What do you think that says about President Trump for his base, for the Republican Party?
00:03:03.000Because it is supposed to be a Republican district.
00:03:08.000And this is an anachronistic candidate.
00:03:10.000I mean, I saw Martin O'Malley was on, I think it was Laura Ingram last night, and he was saying, you know, all five foot two, Martin O'Malley was saying that this is the future of the Democratic Party.
00:03:23.000There is no future in the Democratic Party for a candidate like Connor Lamb.
00:03:26.000This is the only sort of district where a guy like Connor Lamb, with Connor Lamb's message, which I think is just superficial and on paper only, I don't think he really believes these things.
00:03:36.000I think he's saying whatever he can just to get elected and get a propaganda victory.
00:03:40.000But this is a district that is 96% white, 84% urban.
00:03:45.000And as you mentioned, yeah, it's a lot of southwestern Pennsylvania, a little bit of Allegheny County, not much of the city of Pittsburgh.
00:03:59.000But as Trump has said, and I believe Trump, and you can tell by the way that Lamb is, is, you know, he's a wolf in Lamb's clothing.
00:04:06.000He's going to go out there and he's going to vote with the Democrats 100% of the time and piss off the constituents in Pittsburgh, just like Doug Jones did down in Alabama, where he's voting in favor of gun control and things like that.
00:04:20.000I mean, this is the good news is that, you know, if this is a loss for Sacon tonight, it'll do a couple things.
00:04:28.000It will show the Republican Party that they can no longer keep running these candidates who don't have a strong.
00:04:33.000Platform on immigration, strong platform on opioids.
00:04:36.000That's the craziest part about Seth Cohn.
00:04:38.000He doesn't have anything on his website about the opioid crisis.
00:04:41.000And the 18th district is going away as a result of that Supreme Court decision in Pennsylvania.
00:04:46.000So whoever wins this election is going to lose this seat no matter what.
00:04:50.000I mean, that's the bottom line with this.
00:05:03.000Yeah, just because I don't know what's going on with the audio.
00:05:06.000But no, I think that's probably the biggest point here is that the Democrats, in order to compete in a district like this, where I think they should be competitive, you look at some of the congressmen that have been elected in 15, 20 years ago in this district, and they were Democrats.
00:05:22.000Only recently, relatively, did this become a Republican district.
00:05:26.000I think it's quite telling that for Democrats to compete in a white district, in an industrial district, in a district that's by West Virginia, Pennsylvania, where this used to be, Somewhat blue dog Democrat type territory, they have to completely go against their message, which is this progressive far left platform.
00:05:44.000They have to disavow their own establishment.
00:05:46.000And so I think it is interesting that, you know, somebody like Conor Lamb, you're right, he has no future in the Democratic Party.
00:05:52.000People ask me, you know, is this scalable?
00:05:54.000Is this repeatable that the Democrats could challenge people in deep red Trump country?
00:06:02.000But the kind of candidates that the Democratic Party is cultivating, the kind of Base that the Democratic Party is cultivating, that will not be hospitable.
00:06:13.000That will not facilitate candidates like Conor Lamb in the future that are appealing to white people, that are appealing to middle class people, that are social conservatives.
00:06:22.000So you're right, this is not the Democratic Party.
00:06:24.000This is Trump's platform hijacked by an opportunist.
00:06:27.000He's not going to go in there and vote for Donald Trump.
00:06:32.000And you're also right on the Republican Party in the sense that this is the last time, this should be the last time, that the Republicans run somebody so weak.
00:06:40.000You know, here we have another election.
00:06:42.000Just like Alabama, that should have been a grand slam where it's deep red, where they could literally put up somebody who's dead.
00:06:50.000They could put up a vegetable and they should expect that they should compete or win.
00:06:54.000But this is the last time that we should expect the Republicans to put up somebody who can't fundraise, who can't campaign, who isn't strong on the issues that Trump was strong on opioids, immigration, trade.
00:07:05.000I mean, Rick Siccone says he was the Trump before Trump was Trump.
00:07:08.000He says that, you know, he's this rock rip conservative and yet he can't fundraise.
00:07:45.000He's adopted the social conservatism, the trade policies, very Trumpian type candidate, young, energetic.
00:07:51.000And what does that say about President Trump that he's able to compete?
00:07:54.000Is this a rejection of Trump by Republicans?
00:07:56.000Is this a rejection of Trump by Rush Belt, Middle West, industrial state Republicans, or is this just the candidates?
00:08:04.000I mean, what's your read on how this reflects on the president?
00:08:08.000Well, I think it's a reflection that his policies are popular, which is why Conor Lamb has to basically steal the platform from Trump.
00:08:18.000Now, Conor doesn't mention immigration, he does that on purpose, but virtually all of the other prominent pieces of Donald Trump's platform from trade, To opioids, to support for the steelworkers and the tariffs and everything.
00:08:32.000I mean, it's all borrowed from Trump's campaign.
00:08:36.000Whereas when you look at Rick Sacone, if you go out on his website, he says very little about immigration.
00:09:10.000It's going to take time for a lot of Trumpism to trickle down into these local GOP political kind of sectors that have been kind of the same for decades.
00:09:22.000And a lot of that comes to the younger generation to get in there and start changing things as these older people kind of move on.
00:09:30.000But those are the people that ultimately decide the candidates.
00:09:33.000They're the ones that hold the conventions, and they're the ones that fielded Rick Sacone.
00:09:37.000And there weren't that many good options.
00:09:40.000The funny thing is with Sacone, he's the guy that says, I was Donald Trump before Donald Trump was Donald Trump.
00:09:49.000Because look at his platform, and I'm not trying to totally trash him, but the upside to Sacone being rejected here is that, again, it's a rejection of the establishment.
00:09:59.000It's an endorsement of Trump's platform because it shows the Democrats had to borrow from it to run.
00:10:04.000And, like you said, they have not been cultivating candidates like this around the country.
00:10:12.000He is someone who is not going to be in every race.
00:10:16.000They're going to have a hard time finding people like that to run.
00:10:20.000But it's a lesson to the GOP as well because Saccon doesn't have the credibility to say, hey, I agree with these things that Connor Lamb is running on.
00:10:29.000They need to start running candidates that say, no, I represent what Trump wants.
00:10:41.000Yeah, no, we do need to have more authentic and actually Trumpian type candidates that are going to have that platform.
00:10:47.000I think that's a really good point about the success of the policy, about the success of the messaging that President Trump has been getting out, that the Democrats had to steal it, essentially.
00:11:00.000They're smart enough to see that it's working, that maybe the president isn't wildly popular among the middle and among the left, but.
00:11:07.000The message does that kind of broad appeal.
00:11:11.000And Republicans are stupid if they don't adopt that.
00:11:13.000You're right about how it has to make its way down into the local parties.
00:11:17.000Because as much as we see the country moving in a rightward direction, as much as we see Donald Trump pulling, I think, a lot of the middle and the left to the right, and you see this with Conor Lamb, I think you see this with white, middle, and working class America, that they rejected moderate Republican candidates like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush and some of these other characters in favor of Trump, I think shows how he's pushing to the country.
00:12:15.000You know, like you say, with it's a lot of these stodgy, you know, kind of older conservatives that are in there who run the conventions that are fielding the candidates.
00:12:23.000And you see that with a guy like Conor Lamb, he's a young guy.
00:12:28.000Maybe it is up to these newer generations in the Republican Party that will say we have to be a party that is authentic, that has credibility on these issues, and can feel this kind of message.
00:12:39.000My only concern about Donald Trump is this he went out in Alabama and he went for Luther Strange, right?
00:12:46.000He went out there, he had a big campaign rally for Luther Strange, and Luther Strange lost a primary to Roy Moore.
00:12:51.000And then he went out on Twitter even after the sex scandal.
00:12:54.000And he wholeheartedly endorsed Roy Moore.
00:13:05.000He goes out to campaign in Pennsylvania for Rick Sacone, and he brings on Rick Sacone.
00:13:09.000And I thought it was a fantastic rally, really great, lots of publicity, said some outrageous things.
00:13:14.000And he really hit the opioid thing very hard, which was strategic.
00:13:18.000You think about that in the context of Rick Sacone, who hasn't been strong, and that was smart.
00:13:22.000But what happens now if he goes out there for another big rally?
00:13:25.000He's backing a candidate, and this candidate loses.
00:13:28.000Even though Conor Lamb might have won on Trump's message, what does that say about Trump that he just keeps picking these losers, whether it's Luther Strange in the primary, Roy Moore in the general, now this guy?
00:13:38.000I mean, let's say worse comes to worse and Rick Sacone gets beat or he barely makes it or he gets beaten soundly.
00:13:45.000I mean, what does that say about President Trump and his power, the sway that he holds over the party in the midterms, both in the primaries and the generals?
00:13:54.000Well, I think what he's going to have to do, and he has been no stranger to doing this in the past, is he will throw Rick Sacone under the bus.
00:14:02.000And he will say, This is, you know, this is, here's another candidate that I've gone out there on a limb for because he has to as the president.
00:14:09.000I mean, it's, it's, it would be bad if he didn't go out there and support this guy.
00:14:15.000But he's going to have to, he's going to, if Rick loses, he's going to have to throw him under the bus and make a clear message because one of the other big concerns is that the DNC, even though they don't have a lot of money, we've been talking about this a lot on Fashion the Nation, the fact that the DNC isn't broke, they're in the red.
00:14:32.000That doesn't mean that all the ancillary progressive groups, Aren't flush with cash and they are, and they're helping out the DNC and they're going after college students, uh, they're going after minorities, uh, to try to drum up the vote.
00:14:44.000The RNC seems to be asleep, they seem to not be doing what they need to do.
00:14:50.000Now, some people, uh, might say that they're doing that on purpose because ultimately they think that Trumpism is a phase, it will pass, we can go right back to the business of William F. Buckley, and things will be just as they were before.
00:15:03.000But this is no party for, um, Aspiring cucks.
00:16:40.000But, but yeah, no, I haven't thought of it that way in the sense that if Republicans come out with a win in this deep red district, it skews 20% to the right, and they just edge out there, even though they didn't spend their money wisely, and they, They put in $10 million, or I think it was one site said it was $10 million, some one site said it was $8 million that the Republican Party has injected into this race through other PACs and other things.
00:17:04.000This campaign has only spent about $1.5 million, $2 million.
00:17:08.000They haven't been spending the money very well.
00:17:09.000They haven't been, you know, this campaign hasn't been doing very well.
00:17:12.000They picked a candidate who is not energized, who is not putting out the right message.
00:17:17.000There is this element of complacency, there is this element of moral hazard that if the Republican Party Can basically rest on their laurels and they can take a back seat.
00:17:28.000And who knows, maybe they're hoping that Donald Trump loses his majorities in both chambers of Congress.
00:17:33.000Maybe in a sick way, maybe they're hoping for that because Lord knows that if Donald Trump gets his majorities, they're going to be pressured to move the country in his direction.
00:17:42.000They're going to have to go his way on immigration, go his way on all his policies.
00:17:46.000We know that Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell haven't exactly been happy campers going along with Trump's message, but that's a little conspiratorial.
00:17:53.000But if they're not going to support the majority, if that's not the case, Then, at the very least, they are going to become complacent.
00:18:01.000You're right, in the sense that if they pull out a win here when they shouldn't have, when they got licked and they deserve to because they didn't campaign hard enough, they weren't smart in their messaging, they didn't pick a really solid candidate.
00:18:14.000I think he's a good guy and he's a vet and he's a conservative, but they didn't pick somebody who is an effective campaigner and yet they're able to pull it off anyway.
00:18:23.000The message that that sends to the Republican Party is business as usual works.
00:18:35.000But if we have another humiliating defeat after Virginia, after Alabama, and Alabama wasn't so much GOPE because they actually pulled the money from Roy Moore.
00:18:42.000But if they come out with a loss here in a deep red district, 20% to the right, where by all odds Donald Trump and the Republicans should have had a victory, then at least, at the very least, there is an element of leverage where they can say, hey, look, you're not getting the job done.
00:19:37.000That this is even being focused on by the media tells you a lot because this was not a race that Democrats should have even been competitive in.
00:19:47.000Maybe they forget that looking at the coverage tonight that the Democrats shouldn't have even been competitive here.
00:19:52.000The person who left office that vacated this seat and why we have a special election, he ran uncontested in the past two elections and he won by margins of more than 15% in the past eight elections.
00:20:41.000Will this drive a get out the vote thing in November or for the primaries?
00:20:45.000Or do you think it'll be a muted effect?
00:20:46.000Do you think it'll be kind of an anomaly like in December with Roy Moore and Doug Jones?
00:20:52.000Well, we're still a long way out from the midterms.
00:20:56.000We're getting closer, but we're still a long way out.
00:20:58.000We're still two months away from many of the primaries.
00:21:00.000Like Lou Barletta's primary isn't until May 15th, another Pennsylvanian that's running against Bob Casey, but he's still got to beat out all the other Republicans first.
00:21:09.000The other thing is that this media cycle, as you well know, Nick, is so crazy that this is going to be a very, it will be a propaganda victory.
00:21:19.000The media will spin it that way if Sacon.
00:21:23.000And they're even going to spin it as a propaganda victory if Saccon wins by a point or two, because of course they're going to spin that narrative and say, well, he should have won by 20 points.
00:21:53.000All of this, whatever this becomes, if Sakone loses, is going to get swallowed up by the media cycle.
00:21:58.000And they're going to try to make it last for 24, 48 hours.
00:22:04.000And they're going to be talking about a blue wave.
00:22:05.000But if you go out and you look at the Cook Political Report, you go out and look at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia, they've all been writing analysis that show you must be very cautious about talking about a blue wave.
00:22:20.000The Senate map does not look good for Democrats.
00:22:22.000They've been walking their people back from the edge of the cliff, just as they've had to walk their people back.
00:22:26.000Back from the edge of the cliff with regard to impeachment.
00:22:30.000However, if this is a loss for Trump, they're going to.
00:22:34.000Trump can even spin it and say, look, you know, he can blame it on the Republicans.
00:22:38.000He can blame it on the GOPE, which I think he'll do.
00:22:41.000But even if he only wins by one point, and the media narrative is, oh, well, Trump should have won, or this Saccoon should have won by 20.
00:22:49.000He can still spin it against the Republican Party and use it as leverage because you're not doing enough.
00:22:55.000You're not running the good candidates for all the reasons that we've listed.
00:22:59.000But I think the net result of this having any impact because of the unique situation of the district is going to be fleeting.
00:23:08.000I think the danger here is, as you mentioned, it does allow the Democrats to say, hey, here's a strategy that works.
00:23:16.000And the thing that I fear, because I know that them talking about impeachment, them talking about Trump, them talking about Russia, all the polls show that nobody cares about this.
00:23:26.000Normal voters, independents, the people that they have to win over, they don't care about it.
00:23:29.000And so, The sooner the Democrats drop all that messaging, the worse it's going to be for the Republicans.
00:23:35.000That's why they've put out an infrastructure plan.
00:23:37.000That's why they put out a repeal tax bill.
00:23:39.000They have to have some kind of platform.
00:24:01.000Yeah, no, I think you're right in the sense that this is probably not going to be a grand slam in terms of momentum.
00:24:08.000You know, like you said about the blue wave, I think if you looked at the Texas primary voting last week.
00:24:13.000I think that put to bed any serious concerns about a blue wave or a blue tsunami.
00:24:18.000We saw the turnout in the Texas primaries, and although people are talking about early voting in the Texas primaries, where Democrats are voting more than Republicans, if you actually looked at the total overall turnout for those primaries on Tuesday, Ted Cruz won more votes than all the Democrats combined in those primaries.
00:24:35.000And you looked at even party unity, where Ted Cruz won 85% of the votes in his primary and his opponent won 63%, and he lost about 20% to some Hispanic who won all the Southwestern vote.
00:24:46.000So you looked at Texas, and that was a pretty good example where Democrats might have doubled their turnout from 2014, but it was still nowhere.
00:24:55.000And so maybe it's not that much of an injection of morale into the Democrats because here would be another case where the Democrats have had to run a white Trump supporting male, a white male who supports Trump, who's a social conservative.
00:25:11.000Actually, he was pro abortion, so maybe not fair to say he was a social conservative, but certainly he was more to the right.
00:25:16.000Than other Democrats in the country, it would be the second time that you'd have Democrats flipping and taking this kind of populist element from Trump, taking parts of his platform, and even in some cases, support for the president.
00:25:28.000And maybe the fear then is not, like you said, is not that you're going to have this big momentum, that Democrats are going to go to the polls in droves and they're going to vote, but maybe the fear then is they find the model that works.
00:25:44.000Whereas we've been very confident in our messaging.
00:25:47.000And confident because the Democrats' messaging has been so poor because it's been focused on Russia, it's been focused on Stormy Daniels, ridiculous scandals people don't care about.
00:25:56.000Democrats seem to back all the wrong policies every time, whether it's a ban on semi automatic weapons, or it's opposing the Muslim ban, or it's opposing X, Y, or Z.
00:26:05.000They always seem to take the wrong position.
00:26:06.000The messaging has been so ineffective from them.
00:26:09.000They failed to really put forward a positive vision for the country.
00:26:12.000But if they learn from Doug Jones and now from Connor Lamb that this is something that can work, this is something that'll win elections.
00:26:20.000And not only win elections, but win elections in Trump country, win elections in contested blue, or rather contested red states that Trump won in 2016, where they have a Republican governor, states like Missouri, states like Montana, and they could become competitive if they say, hey, look, Connor Lamb won.
00:26:37.000We're going to change our calculus for the primaries.
00:26:39.000We're going to change our calculus for the general.
00:27:52.000And Tim is a buddy of mine on Twitter, and he says this that maybe we're entering into an era where politics is now more about personality than it is about platforms.
00:28:01.000Certainly, I think that could be said about Trump.
00:28:03.000Chicago Joe says, Nick, where's the knife?
00:28:18.000Goomba, I don't know if you should have four grand on this, but we'll see.
00:28:22.000So, McPheels, what do you think about this idea?
00:28:24.000Because I think it is an interesting idea about politics now, particularly in America, becoming more about the men than the party.
00:28:31.000I think American politics is more predisposed to this naturally because we have, as opposed to a prime minister system, like a first past the post system or a proportional system, like in the UK.
00:28:44.000But do you think there is any truth to this, the idea that politics is now more about the people, the candidates, the personalities than about the platform?
00:28:57.000Well, by God, I hope it starts to become more about personality because that'll clear out about, I don't know, two thirds of the Republican Party.
00:29:15.000I mean, there's huge, lots of infighting within the Democrats right now.
00:29:19.000And a lot of that has to do with personality and the type of people.
00:29:22.000And a lot of that has to do with, you know, we're moving away from being a homogenous society that cares about the policies more than it cares about the personalities.
00:29:31.000But, you know, because everybody's kind of plugged into the pleasure matrix and you want somebody to make you feel good.
00:29:48.000He made people feel like, for the first time on the right, there was a politician that spoke to them in their language that made them feel like they were being represented.
00:29:57.000Whereas, you know, the GOP has always been cold and dry and unemotional.
00:30:02.000And the only things that they get emotional about is moving the needle to the left for the Democrats.
00:30:07.000I mean, the controlled opposition angle.
00:30:09.000And so, yeah, I think we're moving in that direction politics of personality.
00:30:15.000And we're moving toward a culture where people want.
00:30:21.000And if the policies are right, that's okay with me because I think there are policies to back up what Trump is saying.
00:30:29.000Whereas with Barack Obama, I think one of the things that happened with the left is he made all those people feel so good, but then ultimately just didn't deliver.
00:30:41.000And then the rest of it, I mean, a lot of the stuff he did was very neoconservative in the way that he carried out his warmongering and everything else.
00:30:48.000So, you know, it depends on what you're saying and what you're offering.
00:30:52.000So, yeah, that's a really good point, especially about how candidates make us feel.
00:30:57.000You know, you always hear, I think we've heard pretty recently in the past 25 years, the advent of this political theory that we want a president who we would get a beer with.
00:31:06.000We would want a president who we could hang out with, that we see him as like a down to earth kind of a guy.
00:31:12.000And I think it's really always been this way in American politics.
00:31:15.000I mean, we look at the great personalities in America uniquely, I think, compared to other countries, whether it's the founders who are all, You know, pretty eclectic characters in themselves, but even through to Jackson, through to Lincoln, through to Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, JFK Reagan.
00:31:30.000I mean, these were larger than life personalities.
00:32:03.000This might be a vindication of the personality politics.
00:32:06.000When Trump went and campaigned and he did this rally, In Pennsylvania, the other or during the weekend, he said Rick Sacone is going to vote for us.
00:32:15.000But he also said, Hey, Rick Sacone is a good guy.
00:32:17.000He said, More than anything else, Rick Sacone is a good man, and that's important.
00:32:43.000You know, even in the Democratic primaries, people liked Bernie Sanders more than they liked Hillary Clinton.
00:32:48.000They weren't necessarily socialists, they probably were more centrist leaning.
00:32:52.000But Bernie Sanders was a card, he was a character.
00:32:55.000Or even during the Republican primary, maybe you liked Ted Cruz, but I mean, come on, the guy wasn't very likable, at least not compared to Trump, who was funny, who was exciting and energetic.
00:33:06.000You know, that was the famous moment during the Democratic primary debates when the moderator essentially asked, you know, people don't like you, Hillary.
00:33:14.000People say you have a likability problem.
00:33:17.000And, you know, Barack Obama said, you're likable enough, and, you know, a famous moment, but there is something about that in politics.
00:33:23.000And here you have it on full display, where the policies are, you know, I think you could debate the trivial differences about, well, you know, Rick Sacone didn't have this on his website, and the Democrat might not follow through.
00:33:36.000And these are important, I think, in the long run.
00:33:37.000But in terms of messaging, Trump endorses Rick Sacone, and Trump represents this uniquely pro white or more pro white than other Republicans in past years, pro union.
00:33:49.000Pro working class social conservative message, and it's being regurgitated by the Democrat as well.
00:33:55.000And even though the messages are similar, even though they're kind of running on the same thing, and that's why the Republicans have had trouble mounting effective attacks on Conor Land because he is so similar to their platform, and he's a Marine and a social conservative and a Catholic.
00:34:08.000The reason the Democrat's pulling ahead is because he's young.
00:34:10.000He's young, he's handsome, and he was a Marine, and he's just likable and a good campaigner.
00:34:15.000So I definitely think there's something to that.
00:34:17.000But let's see, we'll pull up our map here.
00:34:19.000And it looks like we're holding at about 52, 53% for Lamb.
00:34:24.000If you go on Predict It as well, Predict It is a good metric, I think.
00:34:27.000Maybe not the day of because it tends to fluctuate wildly, but on Predict It, it's got 86% for Connor Lamb, 17% for Rick Sacone.
00:34:36.000So it's looking like it's going to be tough.
00:34:38.000Now, we're looking at the votes that are coming in, and it looks like in Allegheny, Lamb is pulling away with 6% of the vote reporting.
00:34:45.000He's got about 1,200 more votes than Rick Sacone, and Allegheny's the most populated.
00:34:51.000Green County looks like Rick Sacone is pulling ahead, but not by much.
00:34:55.000What do you make of the political geography here in this district?
00:34:58.000I mean, if you've read into it at all, we have these four counties Allegheny, Green, Washington, Westmoreland.
00:35:05.000Allegheny's suburban, the other three are rural, pro, Republican typically.
00:35:19.000So, yeah, the four counties are essentially broken up across the screen there.
00:35:24.000So, Allegheny County is mostly, most of Allegheny County is Pittsburgh actually.
00:35:29.000What you're looking at on the New York Times is that squiggle that's going along the bottom, is the Monongahela River.
00:35:36.000And so everything north of that broken part of Allegheny County is essentially downtown Pittsburgh and the North Hills and very Democratic strongholds.
00:35:46.000And so the numbers that come in from Allegheny County, as we're seeing already, are breaking.
00:35:51.000It looks like two to one Lamb to Sacon.
00:35:54.000However, Greene County, southwestern Washington County, and most of Westmoreland County are all going to be the strong areas for Sacon, very heavily Republican.
00:36:10.000Washington, the city of Washington, is in the center of Washington County, and Greene County is very rural.
00:36:15.000So I expect Greene to go very hard in favor of Sacon.
00:36:19.000The thing about Allegheny County, especially along the river, is where all the steel mills are.
00:36:24.000And so the people that are going to be in tune with more of Lamb's message on the working class vote, the pro union vote, people who have been traditionally Democrat before.
00:36:35.000Who would have crossed over to vote for Trump?
00:36:38.000Yeah, they would have crossed over to vote for Trump in 2016 and would have contributed to Trump winning this district by 20 points.
00:37:45.000It comes down to turnout, which people say that's kind of asinine.
00:37:48.000Of course, you know, that's what comprises an election.
00:37:51.000But I really do think this is critical.
00:37:53.000I think much more than Alabama, I think this is something that both parties need to really take a long, hard look at.
00:38:01.000Alabama, I think it was easy for people to write it off, essentially, and say there was a scandal.
00:38:07.000The turnout from the Democrats was crazy.
00:38:09.000You know, if you looked at the turnout from Birmingham, if you looked at the black turnout, Where the proportion of blacks voting in the election was higher than it was when Barack Obama was running in 2012.
00:38:56.000But what was really interesting about it was the part where he said that we should give the death penalty to drug dealers.
00:39:04.000And I thought that was something really peculiar.
00:39:06.000I thought that was something that really struck me as a little bit out there, a little bit risky, you know, because if you were watching the rally, the crowd, Wasn't really excited by that.
00:39:17.000That wasn't, you know, an easy platitude to throw out there like, we're going to build a wall or we're going to say Merry Christmas.
00:39:22.000That was something that people were, they didn't really know how to feel about that, but it was very strong and very strong on an issue that's very important in this kind of an area.
00:39:30.000And I think that just goes to show how smart the guy is, how smart Trump is, that it seems like he tailored it to that.
00:40:12.000But at the end of the day, if they can't turn out in these kinds of elections, if they can't turn out in the primaries to vote for pro Trump candidates, if they don't turn out in the general, it really doesn't do us good that the approval is high if the Democrats are meeting us there.
00:40:24.000Is it so much that we watch the votes, but so much that we watch the turnout in the rural areas?
00:40:30.000Yeah, I think the turnout is important.
00:40:33.000Depending on how energized people are, it's all going to come out to that turnout.
00:40:37.000Now, looking again at this map, I mean, Allegheny County does encompass parts of southern Pittsburgh, the city, but these are wealthy, median, high median income households.
00:40:49.000So this is kind of very swipely areas, you know, white working class, white middle class people commuting into the city.
00:40:57.000It does not really encompass a lot of kind of minority neighborhoods.
00:41:01.000So You're not going to see high minority turnout.
00:41:05.000It's going to be basically whites turning out for lamb.
00:41:08.000And so it could be a little bit different.
00:41:10.000Like I said at the beginning, this is 96% white, 84% urban.
00:41:15.000And so there is a lot of urban areas there, but I'm seeing counties coming in, a lot of the rural counties already coming in for Sacon.
00:41:23.000So it's going to be interesting to see what happens.
00:41:27.000I mean, ultimately, I don't know what the, you know, it could even come down to weather.
00:41:46.000I think you see this a lot with some of these populations that don't turn out so well in terms of people who already have lower turnout.
00:41:55.000I think Democrats have lower turnout in the midterms.
00:41:57.000And in a special election, you have lower turnout.
00:41:59.000I mean, there's all kinds of things that affect the turnout.
00:42:01.000But something like weather, something like if there's long lines, something like if there's bad traffic, people will make the decision whether they're going to vote or they're not.
00:42:09.000At the end of the day, that comes down to how energized the people are.
00:42:13.000If people are dead set against Trump and they want to get out there and make a point, they want to go out there because they're so fed up with the president, they have to get out there and vote.
00:42:22.000Or on the flip side, they're so energized.
00:42:25.000They love what their president is doing so much.
00:43:03.000We have, let's see, Rex Kwando says the Amish don't have SS numbers, work outside of the tax system, live, chat, high birth rates, devout Christians, give up the Catboys and convert.
00:43:15.000So somebody talking about the Amish vote.
00:43:28.000John Shepard says Do the cruise crew type Republicans get Trump when he comes out in favor of gun control, for example, which is the most important issue to the non dissident right Trump voter?
00:43:53.000Does he hurt his turnout when he makes these overtures to the left, which, Jazz, you and I both agree is political theater?
00:43:59.000But nevertheless, does that hurt his turnout in these short term engagements, in the special elections and the primaries, when he says things like DACA are fine people and we should legalize them, or even if we're not going to make a deal, we still like them and want them to come here, or when he talks about the guns?
00:44:16.000Maybe we see the long term viability of that in the macro political sense, but does that hurt him in the short term?
00:44:22.000Is that hurting him with his base, the people that are.
00:44:25.000That we can count on to vote reliably and turn out for Republicans?
00:44:31.000I know in places like Pennsylvania, where again, 96% white, very few illegal immigrants in Pennsylvania, doesn't mean there are none, but it means that the immigration question isn't as prominent on these people's minds in places where the plants have been shuttered for sometimes a few years, sometimes decades.
00:44:53.000That is what's at the forefront of their mind.
00:44:55.000I think Trump had a big impact by going there and kind of.
00:45:26.000And so I don't know, they're used to that in this time of year.
00:45:31.000I don't think whether it would be a factor.
00:45:33.000I was curious when I was thinking out loud about that.
00:45:36.000But since there was no early voting, like in Texas, the Democrats poured tons of money into early voting because the agency of a lot of the people that they're trying to get out to vote isn't that great.
00:45:47.000And so they convinced them to go at any time.
00:46:08.000I think Conor Lamb has been running a good race.
00:46:10.000But again, this is something I wanted to say earlier a lesson to the Republicans it's like you spent $10 million on a guy who wasn't able to raise very much money on his own.
00:46:20.000You basically kept this guy alive, limped him along through the race.
00:46:24.000And Trump comes from the opposite side of the spectrum.
00:46:27.000He was really solid on the issues, was able to market himself very well, get double the impact for half.
00:46:34.000The money, sometimes like a quarter of the money.
00:46:36.000I mean, remember how under budget his campaign was because he's able to get an impact.
00:46:42.000And it just shows, you know, what's the Cohn and the RNC and everybody else that's been in there, the NRCC, trying to keep him afloat.
00:46:57.000But, you know, my 4D chess narrative here, Nick, is that maybe in the, like, you know, I want the GOP guy to win.
00:47:05.000I want the guy to win so it's a propaganda victory for Trump, not because I like.
00:47:08.000You know, his platform, his policies, but maybe as we're far enough out from the midterms and other primaries, that it sends a message to the GOP.
00:47:18.000And the price that's paid is a small propaganda victory for the left that's going to get eaten up by the media cycle.
00:47:24.000And the Republicans have to play, learn a hard lesson.
00:47:27.000And it gives Trump, who's not afraid to do it, the opportunity to come out and say, You need to get better about this.
00:47:32.000You need to be more supportive of my platform and what I want to do.
00:47:36.000You need to get in there and help these people run these races like the Democrats are doing.
00:47:41.000And he should say so out loud because the Democrats, they don't want to talk about the efforts that they're making.
00:47:47.000Somebody should be talking about these things.
00:47:49.000And I think the president is a good one to kind of light a fire under the GOP and say, hey, you guys got to get busy.
00:48:09.000And I think that that shows us that whether we come out ahead or not tonight, and it's looking like it's still a toss up.
00:48:16.000New York Times says that Sacon may have a slight advantage.
00:48:20.000Now they're projecting that he'll be up by a third of a percent, or rather three tenths of a percent, and we'll see what happens.
00:48:28.000But I think you're right that even if it is a loss tonight, or even if it's contested, even if it's neck and neck, if Sacon slightly pulls it off, or if Lamb slightly pulls it off, I think either way, we will have a very strong pretext.
00:48:46.000America First element in the party will have a strong pretext to say, hey, look, dummies, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, the chair of the Republican Party, we have to get our act together.
00:48:56.000And I think that this will happen regardless.
00:48:58.000I think that the propaganda defeat for the left would be, or rather for the Republicans, would be devastating in the sense that here is Trump country.
00:49:08.000I mean, this is Trump's bread and butter.
00:49:11.000These are the types of people that put him over the edge in 2016 and barely in Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
00:49:17.000Michigan and Wisconsin, in particular, razor thin margins he won by.
00:49:21.000And so, if he loses this, where it skews 20%, where him and his sons and Pence have made a couple of visits, I mean, a lot of visits, in terms of that this is just a small special election that, you know, by the time November rolls around, it won't even be a district anymore.
00:49:38.000But I think that either way, we will get the pretext to say we need to get this together.
00:49:42.000I think it'll be a devastating loss if we do lose, but it will be motivating.
00:49:48.000Even if we barely pull it off, you won't have as strong of a reason to tell Republicans to get it together.
00:49:54.000But even then, this is something that we should have won 10 times over with all the visits by the president and his son and his vice president, with all the money that was poured in.
00:50:03.000I mean, even if we come out ahead by a couple of points, we did it at the cost of $10 million and a rally and several appearances.
00:50:11.000And it was a challenge to win a district that was 20% Republican.
00:50:15.000And I will add, additionally, here is something that's different between this election and the Alabama election.
00:50:21.000The Alabama Senate election relied 100% on the black vote.
00:50:26.000The reason that Doug Jones is a senator now and not Roy Moore is because of the black vote.
00:50:30.000Because not only did blacks go 97% against Trump or against Republicans or for Democrats, but they turned out in numbers that were unbelievable.
00:50:39.000Some would say so unbelievable that they were cheating.
00:50:42.000But the Democrats won Alabama by bussing in the black vote, whether that was in the city or from other states.
00:50:49.000But they got blacks to turn out in numbers like you would see in a regular presidential election.
00:50:53.000In a presidential election year, which usually that's when you see higher turnout.
00:50:56.000From all sides, from all parties, from all peoples.
00:50:59.000That is not the case in this district.
00:51:01.000This district, like you said earlier, is 96% white.
00:51:04.000And I think that tells us something about how our electoral politics works with these racial groups that maybe we don't expect to win a state like Alabama, where if the blacks are turning out like crazy and they're voting 100% basically against Trump, well, what really can you do except for beef up your own turnout numbers?
00:51:22.000But if we're losing working class whites, if we're faltering on the white vote, I mean, that's what propelled Trump into office.
00:51:28.000That's the constituency for the Republican Party.
00:51:33.000We're not getting them back anytime soon.
00:51:35.000Maybe, you know, in 30 years, we realize this Bush gambit of finally we get the, you know, a sizable proportion of Hispanics or blacks going red, but not anytime soon.
00:52:09.000So, yeah, I mean, I think, I think, you know, there is the Southern strategy versus the Rust Belt strategy.
00:52:15.000I think, you know, and I have a lot of friends who are from the South.
00:52:19.000And so, you know, but the problem is that in those states, if they, you know, by hook or by crook are able to do kind of the turbo black turnout like they did in Alabama, I mean, nobody was predicting that Moore was going to lose.
00:52:35.000I mean, even the polling was saying that it was going to be very close, very similar to this race.
00:52:41.000But The expectation that that was going to happen was pretty slim.
00:52:46.000I mean, but out of nowhere, the Democrats were able to go out there and do some kind of historic, if not illegal, mobilizing of, you know, plus 100% turnout in some of these districts in Alabama.
00:52:59.000So in the Deep South, you're going to have that as an unmitigated circumstance with black voting and the potential for fraud.
00:53:07.000So I think they're going to have to watch out for that and crack down on that.
00:53:10.000And the Rust Belt, Maybe in some of the industrialized urban centers, you might have that problem.
00:53:17.000Certainly, Milwaukee, certainly Madison, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, all those places are going to have that similar issue.
00:53:28.000But overwhelmingly, it's a very white area.
00:53:30.000Pittsburgh is extremely white, but that's going to be the issue now.
00:53:34.000But it all goes back to do the Democrats have a bench of candidates that they can run on that message where it's believable?
00:53:44.000Like the way that I kind of framed it in the article I wrote for FTN and VDAR essentially was he is the perfect Democratic candidate.
00:53:54.000I don't know how you find another guy like that.
00:53:59.000White male, gang prosecuting former Marine who is Catholic.
00:54:05.000There are a lot of people, Pittsburgh is a very Catholic city.
00:54:09.000So I don't know how you find the perfect candidate.
00:54:12.000They'd have to have a bunch of perfect candidates.
00:54:14.000Now, there is a danger if they do have people like that.
00:54:17.000But if they're trying to run, you know, basically like people that you would find from the Star Wars bar scene, they're not going to have a lot of success in the Rust Belt.
00:54:28.000But going back to this topic of what happens if Sacon loses, I mean, I hope it leads to a GOP revolt.
00:54:36.000I think the narrative should be it's not a referendum on Trump, it's a referendum on Paul Ryan, it's a referendum on Mitch McConnell.
00:54:44.000And it should even be a referendum on Rana Romney.
00:55:34.000Yeah, no, I think that's really important that the messaging after this election, if it's a loss, if it comes close, is that this is not on Donald Trump.
00:55:41.000I think that's a really good point that you make that it's not a referendum on the president who has moved mountains so that we could win these types of elections with tariffs, with taxes, with making appearances and rallies and the things he's been doing for these swing states, whether it was West Virginia where he converted the governor to being a Republican, or Arizona where he let Arpaio out, or Wisconsin or Michigan where he's bringing factories back.
00:56:07.000Reforming the message of the Republican Party like we haven't seen in decades, maybe since Robert Taft, maybe since Mr. Republican in the 50s and 60s.
00:56:16.000And yet we are still held back by the Republican establishment.
00:56:20.000And so you're so right that if it's a loss, if it comes out as not a good result, the messaging, regardless, has to be that this is not a referendum on Trump, who did everything in his power to do this.
00:56:32.000And by the way, in this district, who has a solid job approval rating in a state where he has a solid approval rating.
00:56:39.000In Pennsylvania, in this district in particular, among Republicans, they, I think, compared to Texas, compared to the South, they are really fans of Donald Trump.
00:56:48.000And if we couldn't pull it out because, you know, Mr. Trump, before Trump was Trump, couldn't pull it out because he's not campaigning effectively and the money's not being spent effectively and the messaging is garbage, is frankly garbage in these kinds of states that we're trying to win.
00:57:03.000Maybe that kind of stuff will fly in Alabama or Mississippi or Texas or Tennessee, but it's just a different ballgame in the Rust Belt in these industrial states.
00:57:11.000I think you're right that maybe it is worth it.
00:57:14.000Maybe it is worth a propaganda victory for the left that we are able to put our own house in order.
00:57:19.000Because if you think of it, it would probably be a much bigger disaster that Republicans don't have their head on straight and we have all kinds of Rick Sacones running around the country.
00:57:29.000And I don't mean that like Rick Sacones is a bad guy, he's a good guy and he's an okay candidate.
00:57:33.000He's not, you know, the end of the world.
00:57:35.000But people that are not optimal, people that are not as effective, that are not getting the message out, that would be a much greater disaster that we see very close.
00:57:44.000Tight elections like this in red states like Missouri or Montana that are easily winnable, but that we're just throwing down the drain because we don't have effective messaging and strategy.
00:57:53.000Now, that said, we are looking at some better odds here.
00:57:56.000As the votes are coming in, Sacon is holding pretty strong with a 61% chance of winning, according to the New York Times.
00:58:03.000They're projecting he'll be up by two.
00:58:05.000So it looks like as the votes are being counted, as they're being tallied, and Conor Lamb is still up by about 14 points, but just based on the projected vote totals in these rural areas, it's looking like as the votes come in, Higher chance for Saccona.
00:58:36.000Dan Mann says Will Trump claiming the economy is great backfire as the dollar will fail?
00:58:41.000Economic collapse is going to happen as many great Austrian economists have been predicting the Fed expansion of credit.
00:58:47.000I mean, the economy will collapse at some point, but not in the near future.
00:58:50.000That really won't have a bearing here.
00:58:52.000And if you look in these states, the economy is doing better in terms of microeconomy for individual consumers.
00:59:00.000What Trump has done with the tax plan in time for these primaries and midterms, what Trump has done with trade, what Trump has done with some of these deals he's made with companies, is he's introduced a real effect for individual voters that they can feel more money in their pockets.
00:59:15.000They see more money in their paycheck.
01:00:22.000It could be neck and neck, but they said it also is within the realm of possibility that's a landslide in one direction or the other.
01:00:28.000And I don't think we're seeing that so much.
01:00:29.000It's looking like it's going to be hotly contested, at least with these original numbers.
01:00:34.000We're already back now to a 51% chance of Lamb up by 0.3.
01:00:39.000So, really, even with a quarter of the votes counted, it's estimated that a quarter of the votes are counted, we're still in toss up territory.
01:00:45.000So, it's looking like it's going to be very close, and we'll see.
01:00:50.000But I'm going to go in and just check on predict it really quickly, and we'll see.
01:00:54.000I'm sure the betting markets are fluctuating wildly here.
01:00:59.000While you're doing that, I was just going to comment that one interesting data point here is that I see Greene County is coming in and it's coming in very heavily in favor of Sacon, which is what we've been saying.
01:01:12.000Westmoreland is also coming in very heavily for Sacon.
01:01:16.000And we're not even into the eastern part of Westmoreland, which gets more rural.
01:01:21.000It's actually the parts that are closest to Pittsburgh along the Monongahela River going down to the south.
01:01:29.000So around the steel mills, it's actually tipping in favor of Saccon.
01:01:33.000The other interesting thing is that Allegheny County, the most urban part of the map, is already 58% reporting, and Saccon is losing Allegheny County, but not by the numbers that I thought he would.
01:01:49.000In the most urban part, in the most swipely white upper middle class part of Pittsburgh, he only trails Lamb by 8,000 votes, and it's 30,000 to 22,000.
01:02:01.000So that's kind of interesting because, you know, again, it's going to be Allegheny County that tips things in Lamb's favor.
01:02:07.000These other places, Westmoreland, Washington, and Green, are all going to be heavily towards Sacon.
01:02:12.000So this is going to be interesting to see how this turns out.
01:02:16.000That is a really good point in the sense that we're already at 60% reporting in what should be the Democratic stronghold, Allegheny, like you said, the city, Pittsburgh.
01:02:27.000I mean, this is where you're going to see the most Democrats turn out.
01:02:30.000And it's looking like they're coming up a little bit.
01:02:33.000Now, I don't know how these, you know, special election in this district usually goes, but, you know, with 80% or rather 60% coming in and he's only losing by 8,000, a Republican like Saccon is only losing by 8,000.
01:02:44.000And you look in Westmoreland, they haven't even, it looks like they haven't even begun to tally any part, any eastern part of the state, anything remotely east.
01:02:55.000Washington, no numbers are coming in from there.
01:02:59.000Green, it looks like we're seeing a higher number reporting from there, about 64%.
01:03:03.000But it's looking like there's still a lot of Republican votes that have yet to be tallied.
01:03:08.000And it looks like the Democrats, their stronghold is coming in.
01:03:12.000And it looks, at least from this perspective, it looks like it's going to be underwhelming.
01:03:19.000If we see a sizable turnout, if we see a major turnout in these rural districts in Westmoreland and Washington and Green, if it's a big turnout and it's decidedly Republican, that's what's going to put Sacon over the top.
01:03:33.000And you're looking in green, and this is a rural area, this is closer to West Virginia.
01:03:37.000The margins here are pretty solid 63 to 34 in Wayne West, you've got 66 to 31 in Jackson, you've got 58 to 38 in Wayne East.
01:03:50.000So it's looking like where the number should be, it's pretty solid.
01:03:53.000And this, in a lot of ways, reminds me of what we saw in Alabama.
01:03:56.000We covered Alabama live when it was happening in December, and we saw essentially the same thing.
01:04:01.000And this is, I guess, we see it all over the place, but it is a balance.
01:04:05.000It's a battle between urban Democrat turnout and the red world turnout.
01:04:09.000And it's a question not just of margins of how much Republicans are winning, but also about how many people are showing up compared to the cities.
01:04:15.000I think, you know, if we look at Alabama in particular, the trouble wasn't that.
01:04:20.000You know, Republicans weren't voting for Republicans.
01:04:22.000The trouble was that 600,000 of them stayed home.
01:04:25.000600,000 stayed home, contrasted with 2016.
01:04:29.000And so that's where what we say about the GOP establishment becomes so important because if people are not energized, if the message doesn't resonate emotionally, if they're not charged up by it, and they're not going to go out to vote on a Tuesday evening, you know, it's not a primary, it's not a general, it's just a special election, you know, you're not going to be able to win elections.
01:04:50.000You're not going to be able to pull it off.
01:04:51.000Maybe Republicans support you, but if they're not, Excited, if they're not energized, it's not going to happen for you.
01:04:57.000And this is where Trump talks about how, more often than not, or I think it's historically true for every president, they tend to lose the House in the midterms.
01:05:05.000And they tend to not do well in the first midterm because people get complacent, they turn out in the election.
01:05:11.000And then the contrast maybe between the campaign and the governance, between soaring promises and rhetoric and the nitty gritty of politics, people say, ah, you know, I'm not really excited.
01:05:23.000I think at the end of the day, it'll come down to how much that rural turnout will come in.
01:05:27.000And it looks like a bunch of votes just came in from Washington, where now Washington has decidedly gone red, and we're getting some higher turnout there.
01:06:58.000You know, a lot of the votes have been counted, and even still, it's a toss up.
01:07:02.000And I think that says whether it's a defeat or not, whether it's a win or not, It should be reiterated, it's worth mentioning again that Democrats should not have even been competitive in this district.
01:07:14.000This district went double digits for Trump, for Romney, for McCain.
01:07:39.000But whether it's Sacon who edges them out, whether it's Lamb who edges them out, the story is Democrats were competitive in a deep red, 96% white district that goes 20% to the right that went for Trump.
01:07:52.000That should scare the hell out of the GOP.
01:07:54.000That's why it might even behoove them that they lose.
01:07:56.000Because if they lose, like you said, it's a resounding rebuke to the Republican Party that this is not going to work.
01:08:03.000If we are up for grabs, if we have Senate seats, if we have congressional seats up for grabs in 2016 in red states, And they're vulnerable in the red, and they're vulnerable in districts that skew 20%.
01:08:15.000What about the districts that went 5% for Trump?
01:08:17.000What about the districts that went 10% for Trump?
01:08:22.000And it is important that, you know, the Democratic candidate here, like I said earlier, he's perfect.
01:08:27.000You know, young, he's white, he's Catholic, social conservative, he's, you know, he's all the things that should be impossible in the Democratic Party today.
01:08:36.000And even his record as an attorney general, as a Marine, or a federal prosecutor, it's hard.
01:08:41.000For Democrats to replicate something like that in other places, but not impossible.
01:08:56.000And I don't think that's what we want.
01:08:57.000You know, it'll be interesting and it'll be competitive in 2018.
01:09:01.000But I don't think it's going to be good for our agenda that it will be a slog in every state and every race.
01:09:07.000And especially when the Democrats, by all measures, should be more vulnerable.
01:09:10.000They've got 15 competitive Senate seats up for grabs, a lot of them in In counties, or rather in states where Trump won in 2016, where you have a Republican governor or a Republican legislature, or both in some cases.
01:09:23.000And so, this is just if anything is to be learned from tonight, it's that the GOP has to change.
01:09:29.000Trump has to remake the party in his image.
01:09:32.000This boomer kind of evangelical Ted Cruz constitutionalist stuff, it's not going to work anymore.
01:09:39.000It doesn't matter if you like it, it doesn't matter if that's where you're at.
01:09:46.000The states that we need to win, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, they don't really care about a lot of the issues that people talk about at CPAC, at these other things.
01:10:32.000And I think the other thing we haven't covered so much is that this seat will not go to LAM, right?
01:10:38.000Because they are redistricting Pennsylvania.
01:10:41.000So whoever wins will have to decide what district they're going to run in in November.
01:10:45.000So I think it's worth mentioning that whoever wins, they don't go into the House.
01:10:49.000I mean, they do, but they're not going to be consequential here in the sense that by November, they're running again.
01:10:55.000I don't even think they get seated, correct?
01:10:58.000Yeah, no, it kind of just goes up in smoke by virtue of the fact that.
01:11:02.000The state Supreme Court in Pennsylvania redrew the map at the whim of the governor.
01:11:08.000And the GOP really, you know, I got to give them a little bit of credit in Pennsylvania for threatening to start impeaching judges, but they didn't follow through on that.
01:11:16.000And I think, you know, it would behoove all of the party, including Mr. Trump himself, to begin going full Andrew Jackson in a lot of these cases.
01:11:26.000Because, you know, it can't be that a panel of unelected Judges get to decide what the district is in Pennsylvania.
01:11:36.000Now, maybe it'll work out in our favor where Connor Lamb is not in this district or he loses his seat or he becomes basically a competition between him and whichever Democrat is kind of in Pittsburgh proper.
01:11:52.000But it's going to be interesting to see what happens.
01:11:54.000Like I was saying before, this is a referendum on a candidate who could never win a nationwide race, which is Connor Lamb, versus the GOPE, the failed candidate.
01:12:08.000It's not a referendum on Trump because Trump's policies aren't really on the ballot here except with Connor Lamb.
01:12:15.000And that's what is seemingly so popular.
01:12:18.000And so I noticed that the New York Times popped another map up on the screen here that shows the shift from the 2016 presidential election, heavily shift to the left in Allegheny County.
01:13:39.000But again, like I said, I'd rather, I'm a low time preference guy, Nick.
01:13:43.000I'd rather take a little Pain now and have the Republican Party learn some hard lessons and have Trump go ham on them a little bit and make some serious changes than have Sacon win and it be kind of like, well, business as usual.
01:13:59.000You know, because again, I think it'll be pretty short lived if that ends up being the case.
01:14:12.000I think a defeat here would be worth it.
01:14:14.000You know, I mean, this we can recover from.
01:14:17.000Bad candidate, or not a bad, I hate to say it because I like the guy.
01:14:21.000You look at his face, and he looks like a good man, and he is a solid man, and he's a solid guy, but not an effective candidate going up against a supremely effective candidate.
01:14:32.000If the GOP does not change in time when it really counts, you know, because at the end of the day, this is like a trial run.
01:14:39.000This is a test run because this person will not be seated.
01:14:42.000Whoever wins is not going to be a congressman in 2018 or 2019, or at least they're not guaranteed to be because they're redistricting and then there's another election in November.
01:14:53.000But this is a test drive and we can recover from a bad test drive.
01:14:57.000We can recover if, you know, you don't do so hot on the trial run.
01:15:01.000It's really not consequential in the sense that I don't think people are going to.
01:15:04.000In November, which is eight months away.
01:15:07.000I don't think a black voter in Alabama or a black voter in Missouri is driving home from work and they're thinking, well, you know, don't you remember when Connor Lamb won in the 18th district eight months ago back in spring?
01:15:20.000It's fall now, but I'm driving home from work and I'm really tired, but I'm going to go to the polls because a blue wave is coming because Rick Sacone got, you know, that's, I don't think it'll have that much of an impact.
01:15:30.000And even if it does, it's not going to be as dramatic as the impact that will happen in red states, which we can count on, which is.
01:15:46.000If you're looking on the New York Times, the shift from the 2016 presidential election, that is what the margins are, even in the rural districts, from what they were in 2016 compared to today, almost all of them are shifting leftward.
01:15:59.000Almost every county here is shifting leftward.
01:16:04.000And not just slightly, a lot of them, even in the rural, the red parts are significantly shifting to the left.
01:16:21.000If Trump was not pushing forth effective policies and effective rhetoric, Connor Lamb wouldn't adopt the rhetoric, wouldn't adopt the policies, and he wouldn't be doing well.
01:16:33.000The problem then, if we hold all things being equal and the message is working, the problem then is we have a fuddy duddy conservative here who's, you know, rock rip conservative instead of somebody who's talking about jobs.
01:16:54.000He doesn't get up there on the pulpit.
01:16:56.000Notice he doesn't get up there on the pulpit and say, we love conservatism and we want a conservative country and a red country and we're ideologically conservative.
01:17:04.000He goes up there and says, hey, this isn't working.
01:17:10.000We have millions of people here illegally and they're taking jobs and we want jobs, right?
01:17:14.000He doesn't get up there and say, we want to protect against cultural Marxism and we want to stop the European style socialists.
01:17:21.000You know, in a very, we may like the dog whistling there, but it's not a Wayne LaPierre speech where he goes up there and it's this loud, ideological, far right, conservative message.
01:17:30.000He goes out there and says, Hey, look, I'm a pragmatist.
01:19:02.000I mean, these people really have been abandoned by the Democrats.
01:19:07.000You know, if Lamb wins, it will be a lot of them.
01:19:09.000It will be because a lot of them just went back to their default position.
01:19:13.000A lot of them voted for Trump because it was, you know, something different, something for their speed.
01:19:18.000But now, you know, they might have just gone back to their default position with Lamb.
01:19:23.000But ultimately, yeah, I think it's going to come down to.
01:19:26.000Whether these people were enticed by Trump's message.
01:19:29.000I mean, the good thing is that in Pittsburgh, but as well as neighboring West Virginia, Trump's policies have translated into tangible results.
01:19:39.000With the employment rate being as low as it is in both of those areas, especially in West Virginia, coal mines opening, mills opening again, the announcement that the U.S. Steel is going to be opening up a plan again, although it's in Illinois, that doesn't, you know, they're talking about also opening up some of the ones down there along the Monongahela River.
01:19:56.000These are translating into tangible results.
01:19:59.000Now, Conor Lamb doesn't have, you know, he's one guy saying, I'm going to promise you all these things, but the Democratic Party has given those people nothing but misery and poverty for the last many decades.
01:20:13.000And if enough of those voters are high info enough to realize that it's been globalization that has led to this, I think they realize that these jobs have gone overseas.
01:20:24.000Trump is the only one that's bringing them back.
01:20:26.000It's not the GOP, it's not even the Democratic Party.
01:20:30.000And as you know, the unions have lost membership.
01:20:33.000They've been hemorrhaging membership, not just because of job losses, but because there's no point in paying dues to a Democratic Party, ultimately, through the money laundering of the process, is that they're not delivering any results for these people because Democrats have abandoned white working class voters.
01:20:51.000And they're trying in this election to pretend like they haven't.
01:20:55.000Now that's just going to be a question of whether or not it's enough.
01:20:58.000But the GOP, you know, like you said, Sacon is a good guy.
01:21:03.000Really positive thing about him is that he's scandal free.
01:21:08.000But the GOP has to run candidates who are not just genuine in their behavior, but genuine in their policies.
01:21:16.000And we've gone back around again on this.
01:21:19.000He doesn't have the opioid crisis on his website.
01:21:22.000He had a woman at a campaign event ask him, What are you going to do about the opioid crisis, Mr. Sacone?
01:21:30.000And he said, This is a fiscal conservative, one of these guys who just wants to.
01:21:34.000Cut and slash the budget no matter what.
01:21:37.000Unthinkingly and kind of unfeelingly, he responded to the woman and said, Well, what program, ma'am, would you cut first so that we could start funding an addiction program for your addict son or whatever?
01:21:51.000And she sat there like blinking at him.
01:21:54.000And it's like these guys do not understand what they're doing.
01:21:58.000I don't know what Socona's from there.
01:22:00.000I don't know whether he's just insulated from that or what.
01:22:04.000I don't know to what degree Lamb is really connected to it, other than he is.
01:22:09.000Smart enough to put it on his website and start talking about it as a campaign issue.
01:22:13.000Trump went down there and redirected the message.
01:22:17.000But like I said, if it ends up being a loss for Sacon, it's good that it's happening now.
01:22:21.000Many months from when primaries are going to be happening, it's recoverable.
01:22:53.000You go on his website, like you said, and it's not there.
01:22:55.000You go on Connor Lamb's website, which I just did, and it says if you scroll down right under the donation part, it says the biggest issues facing the 18th district aren't partisan.
01:23:07.000The first thing heroin kills both Democrats and Republicans.
01:23:12.000The roads and bridges we all use are crumbling.
01:23:14.000I mean, this sounds like Trump's platform infrastructure, appealing Obamacare, the opioid epidemic.
01:23:20.000And interestingly enough, none of these issues, except for with the exception of healthcare, the infrastructure, Heroin, the industry, the jobs that are going offshore.
01:23:30.000Republicans don't have answers for these.
01:23:33.000These are not priorities for Republicans.
01:23:36.000I went to a Ted Cruz rally at the Iowa caucus last year or two years ago, two January's ago, January of 2016.
01:23:44.000And I went to his rally and Glenn Beck was there and Glenn Beck opened for him and then it was Ted Cruz and they talked about Israel and they talked about Christian nation and they talked about this kind of stuff.
01:23:55.000There wasn't anything about infrastructure.
01:23:57.000There wasn't anything about Offshoring.
01:23:59.000There was a lot of stuff, like you said, about fiscal conservatism, cutting taxes, cutting programs, and all that, but nothing about these things in the states that matter.
01:24:11.000Hate to break the news to you, Paul Ryan.
01:24:13.000Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, if you don't run people with terrible sex scandals, they're a lock.
01:24:19.000Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, these are the ones we need.
01:24:23.000These are the ones we have to target aggressively.
01:24:26.000And they don't care so much about whether Israel's capital is the eternal capital of Jerusalem.
01:24:31.000They care about their brother or their nephew or their neighbor's kid who died because of heroin or opioids or something like that, pharmaceuticals.
01:24:41.000And I thought it was so telling that Trump went out there and he went harder than anybody I think ever in American history on drugs.
01:24:51.000I mean, you've never heard anything like that, at least not in the last 30 years.
01:24:54.000Maybe you heard crazy stuff like that.
01:24:56.000I don't think it's crazy, but things that are outside the mainstream like that in a long time.
01:25:00.000And he went hard because there is a real deficit between the GOPE.
01:25:05.000And the priorities they have, and the voters, where the voters are at, and Donald Trump's party is at.
01:25:11.000And so you're right, maybe it will take a tough loss for these Republicans to get their heads on straight because you're right, this is not a loss for Donald Trump, who has tangibly brought jobs back, who has tangibly brought the opioid epidemic to attention and brought the drug crisis to attention, and who's bringing back, you introduce an infrastructure bill versus the GOPE, who's done none of that, who cares about none of that, who, you know, that horrible moment with that woman that you said.
01:25:37.000This will be a referendum on the GOPE.
01:26:21.000We got Ricky Vaughn, the irony bro in chief here.
01:26:27.000So, what are your thoughts right out of the gate as you've been watching?
01:26:29.000If you've been seeing things come in, what's your first thoughts here?
01:26:33.000Well, the optics of the race are very tough.
01:26:36.000I'm a doctor in optics, so I have a doctorate degree.
01:26:40.000The optics of the race are very tough for Sacon right now.
01:26:42.000I think it's right about a tie ballgame.
01:26:46.000However, the DEM intensity is strong, so he could easily pull this out, but it's It's a 50 50 race, and that's not where you want to be if you're Sacon.
01:27:10.000Well, we kind of have some breaking news.
01:27:13.000So it looks like Nate Cohn, who is one of the people who puts together this New York Times poll, or sorry, the results in the analytics and all the things that are kind of trending in one way or another.
01:27:26.000He just tweeted a few minutes ago that Westmoreland County, one of the counties where Monroeville is, and it's out to the east, a very Republican area, has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight, though they had previously told us they would.
01:27:42.000So his entire model is based on Westmoreland reporting their numbers.
01:27:47.000And so that's interesting because what they've been predicting, and now those gauges have disappeared, but before they disappeared, what they showed was that it was going to be a half a percentage point race.
01:27:58.000And that they were only 52 or 53 percent in favor of Lamb, but that was without any information coming in from Westmoreland County.
01:28:08.000And now that Westmoreland County is not even being counted, he had to kill his entire model.
01:28:13.000But what that says is that none of those heavy Republican votes were coming in, were being counted so far.
01:28:19.000I mean, they're showing up here on the bottom, but I think he had to kill his model because of that.
01:28:24.000So it's going to be, I don't know, I don't know how reliable this is going to be, but I guess we can still kind of use it.
01:28:32.000Maybe the Pennsylvania State Board of Elections site will have something.
01:28:36.000No, even New York Times has shut down their forecast as well.
01:28:40.000They completely shut down the where we were accessing the probability and what they were projecting.
01:28:47.000It now says under their live estimates of the final vote section precinct results are not currently available in Westmoreland County, a heavily Republican part of the district.
01:28:55.000We're monitoring the county level results closely, but for now we cannot responsibly make a forecast without more detailed information.
01:29:03.000About where in Westmoreland County the votes are coming from.
01:29:05.000So it looks like, I guess at the county level, they're monitoring it.
01:29:10.000I guess votes are coming in, but they don't know from where, maybe.
01:29:14.000But yeah, I guess this is happening all across the board that nothing is coming in from Westmoreland, nothing is being counted.
01:29:20.000And how is that going to affect the projections?
01:29:23.000It looks like we've got 71% reporting, 422 out of 593 precincts, and Rick Sacone's got 70,000.
01:29:34.000Allegheny is 83% reporting Democratic stronghold, so it looks like that's just about spent.
01:29:41.000And we've got nothing so far, or I guess they do have stuff from Westmoreland, but they don't know from where.
01:29:46.000Washington's still at 33% reporting, so it looks like we're running into some drama here on the campaign trail, some drama tallying the votes.
01:29:57.000Yeah, well, I have the Pennsylvania State Board of Elections website pulled up, and it is current, it is live data.
01:30:46.000Lamb is holding steady at 43% in Westmoreland with 77% reporting.
01:30:53.000Now, if Lamb can hold steady at 43, that's where he would need to win.
01:30:58.000So it looks like Lamb has to be feeling pretty good to be this close to winning.
01:31:04.000But like I said, it's going to be a toss up going right down to the wire here.
01:31:08.000And yeah, people have to throw out their left versus right sort of political compass for this kind of a race because.
01:31:20.000What you've got is a guy, Lamb, who's kind of doing what Trump did in the presidential election, which is throw out the lefty right spectrum and turn it on its head.
01:31:32.000Because these are sort of classic old time Democrat counties where people loved FDR, they loved JFK.
01:31:43.000And so Lamb is sort of a throwback to these sort of candidates, sort of a chicken in every pot, economic populism.
01:31:53.000And Sakone is kind of this fossil, GOP Bush Republican fossil.
01:32:00.000I mean, his pitch to voters is like, I support Israel.
01:32:23.000But he's sort of a throwback boomer Republican who loves Israel and free markets.
01:32:29.000So it's a tough race for the types of people voting in this district are not really thrilled with that sort of Republican, which is why they went for Trump by 20 points.
01:32:40.000Yeah, no, that's, I think, the most striking thing here is the contrast between Sacon, who looks like a fossil of Bush era, Reagan era conservatism, and versus this ascendant Trump party.
01:32:54.000Resembles Donald Trump and the ascendant nationalist coalition in the Republican Party than Rick Sacone does.
01:33:01.000If we were to strip away Republican and Democrat and put these people in a hat, you very well might think this is a Republican primary.
01:33:08.000You very well might think this is a Republican primary, no different in some cases than the 2016 presidential primary, where you have Connor Lamb, social conservative.
01:33:18.000He thinks healthcare is too expensive.
01:33:42.000Democrats have to do it this way, but Republicans are dumb not to do it this way in the sense that, you know, Lamb almost has to say, look, it's not about party, and I disavow Nancy Pelosi and I won't vote for her.
01:33:55.000Because for him to associate with the Democratic Party and play the racial politics and pander to minority voters, it would be suicide here.
01:34:03.000And he has to do it, but Republicans are dumb to not do it because we could do it so much better.
01:34:07.000We have a president who's been working towards it, and this would just be I think this would be the wake up call of a century.
01:34:14.000Look, Republicans, you need the white vote.
01:34:45.000To go along with gun control when some of his more liberal constituents were pushing him on that issue.
01:34:53.000He is in favor of clean coal and also fracking.
01:34:57.000So that takes a lot of the wind out of Saccon's sails.
01:35:01.000And with Saccon, he's just this sort of boring guy.
01:35:05.000He likes to talk about sort of, he like all he had to say, in my opinion, was that Lamb supported amnesty because Lamb was going around telling people.
01:35:17.000That he wants a path to citizenship for the 11 million illegals, not just the DACA people.
01:35:26.000So I wonder, I'm so Sikoun with no political instincts.
01:35:31.000And it's a little bit of a shame Trump didn't get the memo on this either because he could have talked about this in the rally.
01:35:37.000All you got to do is hit him on amnesty and say, this guy's not going to build the wall.
01:35:42.000He's not going to deport the people he wants deported.
01:35:49.000And this would have been a huge issue, but Sikoun, he wanted to stick with Israel and a strong military, which is sort of Bush 2000 kind of stuff.
01:36:11.000The other three are rural and Republican.
01:36:13.000It looks like Westmoreland, the reason they've taken down their projections for probability and for estimated vote count is because Westmoreland.
01:36:22.000Is not releasing their numbers until tomorrow.
01:36:24.000They're not going to say until tomorrow where the votes came from.
01:36:27.000And so I guess we're just going to be operating in the dark here without any projection, without any estimate.
01:36:32.000We will just have to look at the raw numbers.
01:36:35.000And we're up to 87% reporting, and it's 50.4% for Lamb, 49% for Sacon.
01:36:44.000So just like we predicted from the beginning and even last night on the show, to toss up, it's going to come down to maybe a half percent, maybe 1%.
01:38:15.000It's not a referendum on Donald Trump because Donald Trump's policies, the only ballot that Donald Trump's policies were on was under Conor Lamb's name.
01:38:24.000And that's just not a strategy that is going to turn out minorities in some of these places.
01:38:29.000Like, blacks aren't going to turn out for a Conor Lamb.
01:38:33.000They could only do this in a 96% white district.
01:38:36.000They're not going to be able to do this in a lot of places, certainly not in statewide elections like Claire McCaskill is running in.
01:38:44.000I mean, the problem with that is they did do that with Doug Jones.
01:38:48.000I think that a charismatic white man can win these minority voters with the right type of race.
01:38:55.000But, like you said, that was the Moore race I have a hard time with.
01:39:01.000And Nick pointed this out earlier the scandal ridden piece with Moore.
01:39:08.000And the other thing, I don't think it was so much Doug Jones' charisma.
01:39:12.000I think it was Roy Moore's quotes and comments about that, at least, were memed into the minds of black voters.
01:39:20.000That he wanted to go back to a time of slavery and things like that.
01:39:25.000Maybe they're going to succeed trying to meet to a candidate and try to do this, this guy wants to put you all back in chains mentality, but I don't think that's going to work.
01:39:35.000I mean, you really have to come up with some crazy narratives to turn these people out.
01:40:27.000Maybe you can quibble a little bit on saying, oh, his Twitter is not very nice, but they better be standing behind his policies because that's what the voters want.
01:40:35.000And if they don't, they're going to lose big in 2018.
01:40:42.000And it's looking like here, if we're looking at our turnout, just for an update on the results here, it's looking like it's neck and neck here with 87% in.
01:40:52.000But if you break it down by county, Allegheny's only got 9% more to report.
01:40:57.000But Westmoreland and Washington have 12 and 25 percent respectively.
01:41:01.000So it doesn't look like Lamb's going to be able to hold on here.
01:41:04.000I mean, we'll have to see what the turnout will be in Westmoreland and what the margins will be in Washington and Westmoreland.
01:41:47.000So I don't think there is a future for the Republican Party nationally, like you said, Ricky, if we're not explicitly populist, if we're not appealing to those blue collar workers, to these white middle class type people that you're seeing here today.
01:42:02.000Rick Sacone is having such a tough time that he's getting killed here in a race where we should have won easily just goes to show how easy the Democrats can scoop up on their legacy, on their, you know, maybe a precedent that they have of being the union guys, being the working class guys.
01:42:18.000We still have to battle them for that constituency.
01:42:21.000It goes to show how powerful, how important they are.
01:42:24.000If Republicans can jockey the union people, the white working class people out of the Democrats' hands, we have a solvent and a viable party in 2020 and, you know, In a few years before Texas goes blue and all that happens.
01:42:36.000But if we don't even try to do that, if we have not convincingly done it yet and we're not making an attempt anymore, if Trump is the only one pushing, forget about it.
01:42:51.000There really will be no cuck insurgency.
01:42:54.000But the danger is like there isn't going to be, John Kasich is not going to win a national campaign.
01:42:59.000Mitt Romney is not going to win a national campaign.
01:43:01.000Jeff Flake is not going to win a national campaign.
01:43:03.000The danger with those guys is they have no hope electorally.
01:43:05.000But the danger with them is that they can be a foil.
01:43:08.000As we talked about before, these margins are razor thin in a lot of these places.
01:43:12.000You know, Trump, if the momentum, if the election had been able to go on for another 30 days, it's possible Trump could have won Minnesota.
01:43:36.000There has to be outreach to white working class voters.
01:43:39.000The problem is, though, is that these candidates that can come out there and capture enough of the respectability, we're just egalitarianism and all the stuff that is espoused by the GOPE.
01:43:55.000I like what Donald Trump says, but I don't like the way that Donald Trump says it.
01:43:59.000It gives those voters an excuse either to stay home or come out for a guy like that.
01:44:04.000And so these people have to be thoroughly, thoroughly repudiated.
01:45:13.0003% to go in Westmoreland and 10% in Washington.
01:45:16.000And Westmoreland and Washington are very strong Republican, but Allegheny has a much greater population.
01:45:22.000And it's looking like if you look at Allegheny, the precincts which have not reported in, they don't look like Democratic strongholds in terms of you have some that are up in the northwest, which will go lightly for Democrats.
01:45:36.000You have some a little bit closer towards Pittsburgh, which some have gone red, some have gone blue.
01:45:42.000So it's looking like the Democrats have exhausted their strongholds.
01:45:46.000Huge margins, I don't think, in these remaining districts, at least not compared to downtown or to the suburbs.
01:45:52.000But Westmoreland, you got to imagine that's all going to be pretty heavily Republican if it's anything like Green, if it's anything like Washington.
01:45:59.000Washington, the districts that remain are also going.
01:46:03.000It looks like they would go very hard for Rick Sacone if they were to follow the pattern of all the other precincts here.
01:46:09.000So as we watch it come in, it's a nail biter.
01:46:12.000It's going to come down, you know, right down to the last vote, I'm sure.
01:46:16.000And it looks like now it's still 1,000.
01:46:19.000Even we're up to 95% reporting in now, still 1,000 vote difference.
01:46:24.000But I'm cautiously, we can cautiously look at which votes and which precincts yet to be totaled.
01:46:31.000And I don't know who's going to edge it out.
01:46:33.000It looks like if I were to guess slightly for Sacon, but who knows?
01:48:08.000You know, and I want to say, too, A lot of people are trying to spin this on the right as sort of like a doomsday scenario.
01:48:19.000And people got to understand this is not a battle that you're going to win or lose in one election or one special election.
01:48:28.000So, I mean, Black Pillars, don't get too happy with yourselves tonight, no matter what happens, because what you got is here is a really bad candidate and a really good Dem candidate.
01:48:40.000Yeah, like I said before, this is a referendum on the GOPE.
01:48:44.000Um, if anything, uh, that's you know, by virtue of the fact that it wasn't a 20 point win for Sukkot, and it's a candidate that they can't that could not win a national election.
01:48:54.000I mean, Lamb could not win a national election.
01:48:56.000I mean, and it's it's it's because he can't these issues that he's espousing would not be attractive to uh Democratic voters by and large.
01:49:05.000I mean, they could try to meme him into uh this candidate, but this is this is really they jumped the shark on this, and so so yeah, and in just trying to decide these as one elections, like I said, um.
01:49:18.000I'd rather have Saccon lose, actually, and have a lesson learned here now, this early in the primary season, than have this happen later on down the road.
01:49:29.000And Trump is willing to go out there and make the message about Ronnie McDaniel not doing enough at the RNC.
01:49:40.000They can make it about Saccon not being strong enough on Trump's platform.
01:49:45.000I mean, it's very easy to switch in that direction.
01:50:00.000I think that's the best point no matter the outcome, if we don't do something with it, if we don't take this and use it as leverage, if Trump doesn't use it, if we don't use it, if the GOP doesn't learn, that is the worst consequence here.
01:50:15.000This election, at the end of the day, and I hate to say this, but at the end of the day, whoever wins in this election, whoever wins more votes, This is not truly of consequence.
01:50:26.000This is not going to kill us in the midterms.
01:50:29.000The person who wins this election won't even be seated.
01:50:31.000It'll just be, you know, they'll have to decide which election they'll run in November.
01:50:36.000And so the real damage that will be done here is if we don't get our act together.
01:50:41.000That is the most devastating thing that we might not even be able to recover from it if we continue, like you said, Jazz, and do business as usual.
01:50:49.000I mean, that would be the killer here.
01:50:51.000But it's looking like we've got some more votes in here.
01:52:44.000But, you know, like I said, even if people are saying, well, the Democrats win, like Ricky Vaughn said, this is nothing that they can scale up with.
01:52:52.000This is not a Connor Lamb would never win a national election.
01:53:45.000And I've also been hearing some rumors, just rumors on Twitter.
01:53:49.000I don't know if they're true, unsubstantiated, but I've heard some rumors that Republican voters, when they turned out to vote, they were told that they had already been redistricted out of the 18th.
01:56:31.000And this is a big problem for them because.
01:56:34.000While Trump is not the most popular figure of all time, the only reason that he's even competitive is because of his policies.
01:56:43.000And if Republicans give voters the same old policies that they gave with McCain and Romney and Bush, then they are going to lose the House in the upcoming election.
01:57:00.000I mean, that's if they don't clean house and put out more effective messaging.
01:57:05.000I mean, there would be no chance because we are seeing, you know, and people are so quick to say blue wave is fiction, blue wave isn't happening.
01:57:13.000But we saw double the turnout in the Texas primary last week, double the turnout from 2014 in the 2018 Democratic primaries.
01:57:20.000And people can say it's one thing or it's the other, but Democrats are motivated.
01:57:24.000You saw this in Alabama, you saw this in Texas, you see this here.
01:57:27.000And if Republicans are not equally motivated, if they're not getting a message that is mobilizing them, that's energizing them, where they're going to the polls, And we're not spending our money effectively.
01:57:36.000And the messaging isn't effective and tailored to the region, tailored to the voter, not to the donors, not to the think tanks and Fox News, but to the people in this district, which they wanted to hear about opioids.
01:57:49.000They wanted to hear about health care.
01:57:50.000And they heard about Israel and Korea and all this other stuff.
01:57:53.000So if they're not able to turn it out and make good messaging, we lose the House 100%.
01:57:59.000Senate's a little bit more vulnerable for Democrats.
01:58:08.000That we look at this district, and if it's like Jazz was saying earlier, if it's a half a percentage or less difference, I guess there's a recount, right?
01:58:19.000So, or no, no, no, I'm sorry, that's something else.
01:58:22.000But I mean, I think we could also be looking at a recount here if it comes in and it's very tight.
01:58:27.000I mean, certainly we're looking at it now where it's within 1%, and it looks like we have 13 precincts total to be counted in the rural areas.
01:58:39.000It looks like we've got nine precincts left to be counted in Allegheny.
01:58:43.000So you've got 13 that will likely break for Sacon.
01:58:49.000You've got nine that will likely break for Lamb.
01:58:52.000It's debatable how those will compare because Allegheny has a higher population.
01:58:56.000But this one's going to come down to the wire here, just purely in terms of predictions.
01:59:01.000But, you know, like we've been saying, regardless of the outcome, the message is the same.
01:59:12.000It would help if Donald Trump put that out as well, vocally.
01:59:15.000Yeah, he's going to have to fight back against the narrative that gets spun that this is a referendum on Trump, because that's exactly what they're going to be doing.
01:59:24.000Even if Saccon manages to squeak out a win here, they're going to say it's a referendum on Trump.
01:59:29.000So he has to be prepared to throw Saccon under the bus if he has to.
01:59:33.000Saccon is just a state senator, I think.
01:59:35.000And, you know, it's not going to be, at the end of the day, it's not going to be that big of a deal.
01:59:40.000It's going to be much better for Trump to do that.
01:59:44.000And again, I think it's worthwhile to do that now.
01:59:47.000It has to be, this has to be, this is all about learning.
01:59:50.000This is all about test balloons, what works, what doesn't.
02:01:16.000It's going to take some fighting because a lot of Trump's message, his platform, is diametrically opposed to the Democrat or the Republican Party, what their platform is all about.
02:01:26.000When you're talking about tariffs, when you're talking about going hard on immigration, when you're talking about a lot of the things that he wants to do with infrastructure spending.
02:01:34.000Those are core, well, not immigration, but the other issues used to be core Democratic issues.
02:01:40.000And it's going to be tough as a Republican candidate to run on those things.
02:01:44.000But you have to break through, and there's got to be some success.
02:01:47.000Otherwise, it's going to be a lot of close traces and a lot of disappointment.
02:01:53.000Well, yeah, they just can't count on Trump to put the whole party on his back.
02:01:59.000Too little, too late is exactly what we saw here, which is this expectation that we can just continue to run bad candidates, we can continue to run ineffective candidates.
02:02:09.000Bad candidates, and not bad people, but candidates that aren't fundraising effectively.
02:02:13.000And this guy was not a good fundraiser, not making public appearances, not making good public appearances, messaging on the website and in the literature that's off, people that are not pounding on the doors, making phone calls.
02:02:25.000And I guess there's this expectation in the Republican Party that Donald Trump can come and give a speech, and this is going to save the day.
02:02:33.000And at the end of the day, we could always count on Hail Mary from Donald Trump, and it's too little too late.
02:02:37.000It was too little too late with Luther Strange in the primary.
02:02:40.000It was too little too late with Trump's endorsement of Roy Moore eventually in the general.
02:02:44.000It was too little too late with Ed Gillespie in Virginia.
02:02:47.000And it's too little too late here, where I guess they thought Trump would cap it off with a weekend rally and we'd be able to change the platform of the Republican Party.
02:02:56.000And suddenly people are going to understand oh, you know, Rick Sacone has something to say about opioids and all this other stuff.
02:03:57.000They're vying for influence or votes or support in states that they haven't been able to win in 30 years.
02:04:04.000And it's just striking how they haven't won these states in 30 years and they're using logic from when they've been losing them for 30 years instead of the guy that won them all, the guy that fixed them.
02:04:13.000So, Paul Ryan, this guy better fall in line.
02:04:38.000The one interesting thing is that I, so far, according to one metric that I've seen, is that there have been 1,274 votes cast for the Libertarian candidate, Drew Miller.
02:04:49.000And we are within, we certainly are well under a 1,200 vote difference between Connor Lamb and Rick Sacone.
02:04:56.000So it's very possible that the Libertarian Party.
02:05:01.000May have thrown this election to Connor Lamb.
02:05:03.000I guess we'll have to see how that plays out.
02:05:08.000I don't really buy that, though, when people say that a third party throws a race because those are voters a lot of times that wouldn't even bother coming out or they don't like either candidate.
02:05:19.000But if I could touch one more thing on what you guys were saying about the Republican Party better get its act together.
02:05:27.000One thing that the alt right has had to learn lately is unfortunately.
02:05:43.000So, what we need right now is fresh blood in the GOP.
02:05:47.000You can't just hope that, oh, Paul Ryan suddenly figures out how to be a winning politician or Rick Sacone, these types of candidates, oh, they all of a sudden realize how to be a politician.
02:06:01.000A lot of these guys are never going to get the memo.
02:06:04.000They're just doing what they've, they're going.
02:06:05.000Through the motions of what they've always been taught to do.
02:07:22.000You look at the conservatives that are being brought into the fold, even in the Northeast, where they should be Donald Trump type Republicans on trade and drugs and all the rest.
02:07:31.000And they are these, they're worse in many cases than George Bush.
02:07:36.000I mean, they're worse in terms of they're more this William F. Buckley libertarian ideological stuff.
02:07:41.000They're more talking about lower taxes, this Koch Brothers stuff, because they've been brought in in many cases by these organizations that are bought and paid for by the same multinationals and corporations and banks.
02:07:53.000That are paid for by people that benefit from immigration, people that benefit from free trade.
02:07:59.000And so that's the unfortunate part is that there really has to be a grassroots and an outsider insurgency in the Republican Party, in the right wing, that is nationalist, that is populist.
02:08:12.000Because the quality of people that are coming in, that are being brought in by the Republicans, is unfortunately more of the same.
02:08:18.000You look at like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and you got neocons, neoliberals.
02:08:27.000They're these compassionate conservative types.
02:08:29.000And so that's why, for anybody that's watching this show, for people that watch America First or Fascination or fans of Ricky Vaughn, we all are on the same page, essentially, on nationalism, on what needs to be done in the country.
02:08:41.000This is a perfect opportunity to tell you look at what's happening to the party, look at what's happening to the electorate.
02:08:59.000Join up at an organization on your college campus, whether it's YAL or YAF or it's college Republicans, or start your own and start infiltrating.
02:09:07.000Because, like Ricky Vaughn says, he's a fan of saying this, I am as well.
02:09:11.000All politics is local, it's not metapolitical.
02:09:46.000Allegheny is at 97%, and Washington's still at 90% reporting.
02:09:51.000So we've still got a number of precincts left for Washington, still a number from Allegheny, and it's still in toss up territory two and a half hours later.
02:10:29.000We need to get more people energized in the grassroots.
02:10:33.000The Republican Party is comprised of a lot of Old people, even, you know, old boomer and late boomer, and even older than that.
02:10:40.000And those people are going to be moving on.
02:10:43.000And they, I think a lot of them take these local and state level positions for granted.
02:10:50.000So they're, you know, but it isn't totally binary.
02:10:53.000There are still a lot of Republicans in the party who are not beholden to people like Paul Singer.
02:10:59.000They're not beholden to donors and the like.
02:11:03.000There are some kind of really independent voices.
02:11:05.000And I think putting effort behind those voices and showing that those people are the example, incentivizing more of that and disincentivizing the people who don't matter, a lot of that's going to happen on its own because those people can't win elections.
02:11:21.000But the messaging has to be that this is a referendum on the GOPE, and the GOPE failed.
02:11:27.000But again, it's going to be a short term win for the Democrats in terms of a propaganda victory because this is all going to get eaten up by the media cycle very quickly anyway.
02:13:20.000Washington, it looks like, is the third smallest county here.
02:13:25.000They've only had, what is that, about 40,000 votes total counted in Washington on both sides versus about 97,000 in Allegheny and probably closer to 100,000 by the time it's counted.
02:13:38.000So I just don't see where Rick Saccon makes up the difference here.
02:14:48.000But in the party, does this have this effect where primary candidates and general election candidates on the Republican side look at Donald Trump as somebody who's less and less effective?
02:15:29.000You might have to disavow me by the time this is done.
02:15:32.000No, but I think that Trump pulled out all the stops and.
02:15:37.000Really went into a heroic effort to bail Saccon out.
02:15:41.000I think that Saccon was down five points in the polls.
02:15:46.000And the fact that it's this close, I think, reflects on the fact that Trump did pull out all the stops.
02:15:52.000Trump Jr. swung through the district, Mike Pence, and they were able to sort of really push an effective message in the closing days of the campaign.
02:16:03.000I think that they were able to swing some of the undecided voters back to Saccon.
02:16:09.000And so Trump knew either way he was going to get blamed if he lost, whether he campaigned today or not.
02:16:59.000McConnell knows sort of what's going on, though.
02:17:02.000And he knows that if the GOP goes after those tariffs, then the GOP establishment is going to burn up so much political capital and they're going to lose in the midterms big.
02:17:13.000Yeah, no, I guess I do agree with that.
02:17:15.000I mean, I was just asking the question about, you know, just optically, you know, another favorite subject of ours, counter signaling is one, but optics is another, that he did.
02:17:27.000Like you said, it's a Herculean effort that he went out there and he put the whole team on his back and charged ahead, even though, you know, like you said, no thanks to Rick Sacon and his campaigning and whoever was running that campaign, which turned out to be ineffective.
02:17:43.000So, You know, maybe that just goes to show he's a team player.
02:17:46.000So I guess there are two sides to that.
02:17:47.000On the one hand, he's backed a lot of losers in the past four special elections or so, primaries and generals.
02:17:54.000But by the same token, he's proved that he's a team player.
02:17:57.000When the chips are down, when his guy's in trouble, he's going to go out there and he's going to do what has to be done.
02:18:02.000So I think there is an element to that.
02:18:04.000And we're looking at it, it's so close now.
02:18:49.000As it's winded down in ways that he needed to.
02:18:51.000I mean, we were looking at a thousand vote difference, 1,200 vote difference, and it looks like that's been cut in half.
02:18:57.000And we've got more counties between Washington and Westmoreland than there are in Allegheny.
02:19:02.000I mean, Allegheny has more, or Allegheny, sorry, Allegheny has, you know, they've got more people, perhaps, but you've got more counties in these other two.
02:21:25.000Michigan Wave says he agrees with McPheel's biggest tricks to GOP is if Dems go fake right in 2018 with a rehash of Washuck's Bill Clinton, I guess, for the Dems.
02:21:35.000Begbie, how is Nick for Fascination A?
02:21:37.000And Matthew says, say Allegheny one more time.
02:22:15.000And the margin of error was like 3.8 or 4.
02:22:18.000I think that just goes to show the polls are not going to be reliable here.
02:22:21.000Polls will not be reliable, I don't think, in House races.
02:22:25.000They'll be a little bit more reliable in Senate races, and they'll be more reliable for both when they're not special elections.
02:22:30.000But I think it just goes to show the polls are not really a good tool these days to gauge because the polling would have had it that Lamb was up significantly or even that.
02:23:15.000I just read something on Twitter that is definitely going to be of interest here.
02:23:19.000Apparently, they're not counting the absentee balance until the morning.
02:23:26.000And that might just be Washington County absentee ballots.
02:23:30.000So I think if Sacone catches Connor Lamb here, then he probably will win.
02:23:41.000But let me just say, I think I got the math wrong, actually.
02:23:46.000I think Lamb just increased his lead to 700 votes.
02:23:51.000So it's going to be tough for Mr. Sacone.
02:23:55.000But those absentee votes, I don't know.
02:23:57.000We could go to sleep tonight not knowing what's going to happen if the margin is close enough for those absentee votes to make a difference.
02:26:22.000You can drop out earlier if you'd like.
02:26:24.000But, I mean, it's looking like we're probably not going to see a decision made on this tonight because you've got this issue with Westmoreland.
02:26:35.000The absentee, these 12 precincts are very stubborn and they're not coming in.
02:26:40.000I'm reading on Twitter that some of the sentiment among Republicans is about the tax bill, which I think is interesting.
02:26:46.000I've been reading this on several sites that the tax bill hasn't been exactly effective in these areas because the Democrats have been smart enough to frame it as a giveaway to corporations and the wealthy, which I think is interesting because a lot of the wisdom, and even I've said this on my show with the tax reform, was that if we did tax reform before election season, people would get money in their pockets and this could quell a Democratic uprising and maybe even energize the Republican base.
02:27:16.000This is anecdotal stuff that we hear on Twitter and we see on some of these far left mainstream websites and papers.
02:27:22.000If people are not getting the message that this is putting money in their pocket or if it's not doing that significantly, that's going to be an issue for Trump.
02:27:29.000I think he's relying in a lot of ways on the tax reform, or maybe that was the calculus if we cut the taxes, people got more money in their paycheck.
02:27:37.000This could keep him afloat in the midterms, and this could maybe subdue a blue wave.
02:27:42.000People will be a lot less upset with Trump if they are making more money and their 401k is growing.
02:28:12.000It's tough to say because, on the one hand, you know, the Treasury Department said, 95% of Americans are going to get their taxes cut.
02:28:21.000And even the mainstream press was pretty honest about this.
02:28:24.000They showed people, wealthy people, middle class people, working class people, all getting more money on their taxes, some more than others, but all getting money back.
02:29:21.000And I think that the tax reform is a positive.
02:29:25.000But I don't think it's enough to win by itself.
02:29:28.000I think that the groups you're going to see very happy in 2018 are going to be the conservatives, the sort of doctrinal conservatives, and the Republicans.
02:30:32.000Well, I'm hearing some things on Twitter.
02:30:36.000Apparently, the absentees total 7,000, 7,000 votes.
02:30:41.000I don't know if that's true or not, but I'm just hearing some things on Twitter.
02:30:45.000If there's 7,000 votes to be counted, we're not, you know, that would decide the election if there were a big margin there, you know, when it's down to 700 votes.
02:30:54.000I'm hearing also that a lot of the remaining votes are from a place called Peters Township, which is favorable to Rick Saccon.
02:31:03.000I hear people on the ground are saying that Saccon is probably up 100, probably up 100 if you look at in Washington County, or rather in Washington, if you're looking at Peters County, And you add all those up, the margins would be enough to put Sacon over the edge by about 100.
02:31:21.000But, you know, again, until those absentees are counted, if there's an injection of 7,000 votes, that's a percentage, you know.
02:31:28.000That's probably a full percentage here, and it's a half a percentage race right now.
02:31:32.000So, I don't, we probably won't know tonight.
02:31:35.000Like I said, we'll keep going another half hour, and we'll watch and see if these 12 precincts come in.
02:32:32.000If he can effectively campaign on this, this is an emotional issue.
02:32:35.000It's one that hits home for all the voters in Ohio.
02:32:38.000I forget which study, but it said something like everybody in these states knows somebody who's affected by opioids.
02:32:44.000That's going to get people to the polls.
02:32:45.000If they could say, Trump saved my nephew, Trump saved my uncle, Trump saved my brother, he made a difference in my state with this epidemic, he gave us the funds, they got the treatment they needed.
02:32:55.000That's going to get people to the voting.
02:32:57.000Booths, but it'll also keep Democrats away.
02:33:02.000And if we're not hitting that issue, if we're not hitting health care, you know, that we didn't get Obamacare repealed, I think is an understated disaster of the first year of the Trump administration.
02:33:15.000I mean, he made up for it and that he got the individual mandate gone and he got some of the taxes repealed, and that was a great thing.
02:33:21.000But John McCain sinking the Obamacare repeal was a disaster.
02:33:25.000Health care is like something that 83%, something like 83% of voters say that's a priority for them.
02:33:31.000And Trump didn't get the single central thing Republicans have campaigned on with health care for six, seven, eight years, you know, for as long as it's been around.
02:33:40.000And so, if we can't get on health care, if we can't get on opioids, we can't get on infrastructure, we can't get on jobs, tariffs, blue collar work, unions, forget about it.
02:33:51.000Democrats are working their butts off to get Connor Lambs in, to get these kinds of people that will appeal.
02:33:57.000They did it with Doug Jones, they did it with Connor Lambs.
02:34:00.000They're more flexible than we thought.
02:34:02.000We went into this thinking we were going to be strong because Democrats will be running frizzy haired liberation theologists, you know, essentially in Alabama and Pennsylvania.
02:34:49.000And these are the people who really respond to populist issues, economic populism, because they do not care about Conor Lamb being soft on Israel.
02:35:03.000They are living paycheck to paycheck and they don't care about half measures either.
02:35:08.000What they want is to flip the switch, flip the board, flip the game over.
02:35:14.000They voted for Trump because he said he would flip over these trade deals and reset the American economy.
02:35:20.000They did not vote for Hillary Clinton half measures.
02:35:23.000So, if we're going to run candidates who are going to be promising all these economic half measures and undercutting Trump on the big populist issues, then the Republican Party is going to run into a lot of trouble.
02:35:38.000People are losing their neighborhoods to illegal immigration.
02:35:47.000They do not care so much about whether an AR 15 is legal.
02:35:52.000They do not care so much about whether, whatever his name is, Rick Sacone stands with Israel or not.
02:36:00.000And if you don't speak to these issues, then these voters are just not going to vote, or they're going to go and vote for an FDR style Democrat like we see with Connor Lamb, like we are seeing a couple of FDR style Democrats running.
02:39:06.000I mean, what do you make of the things that he was saying just while we're waiting for these precincts?
02:39:11.000What do you make of some of the rhetoric that we heard over the weekend?
02:39:13.000I mean, do you think we've been hearing this stuff about the opioids, killing drug dealers, really going on fire with the insults on Maxine Waters, on Chuck Todd, and hitting the wall and immigration pretty hard?
02:39:27.000What do you make of the rhetoric out of that rally if you saw it?
02:39:51.000And I think that it's good for the country because what we're seeing, and this is what I'm basing off of some news reports, you always have to take it with a grain of salt.
02:40:01.000We're seeing Trump has been in office for over a year and he seems to be more and more comfortable with the levers of power compared to his first.
02:40:12.000Days when he was just sort of testing things out, and we saw things backfire on him.
02:40:20.000So, from what we're seeing in the news, he's getting more comfortable with the levers of power.
02:40:26.000He's moving some of his people into place, and he's not, he's all out of patience with the deep state at this point.
02:40:34.000He's saying, You're not going to be able to slow walk me anymore.
02:43:34.000Oh boy, do we love just waiting and waiting to watch and see for these last 11 precincts.
02:43:40.000Hey, actually, looks like we've got some numbers here from Peters Township.
02:43:46.000And like I said earlier, it's looking like the votes are coming in for Rick Sicone.
02:43:53.000And it doesn't look like they've updated their vote total yet because it looks like they've got, oh no, maybe that was an error, I guess, because it looked like it was all filled in and now it's filled in again.
02:44:05.000So they're having some issues, it looks like, on New York.
02:44:13.000The information that they've uploaded and then quickly took away is that in every single part of Peters Township, Rick Sacone is pulling away.
02:44:23.000Not by crazy margins, but by a lot by 70, by 100, by 110, 115, in all these different parts of Peters Township.
02:44:32.000And hey, it's a 700 vote race right now.
02:44:34.000So let's wait and see if the New York Times will update the totals.
02:44:38.000They've uploaded the information, but they haven't incorporated.
02:44:42.000These totals into their precincts or into their vote totals.
02:44:45.000I don't know if that's because it's not complete or if they don't like the result they're getting.
02:44:49.000I'm going to check in on CNN and see if they've uploaded it.
02:44:52.000It's kind of peculiar that 538 is not keeping track of this.
02:44:56.000538, they're the election specialists.
02:46:24.000But wow, it is really coming down to the wire.
02:46:26.000I don't think anybody, maybe some people expected it was going to be a nail biter, but 95 votes, I mean, that's pretty close.
02:46:33.000And it certainly goes against the polling because we saw in the polling, if I could pull it back up on 538, because they did do a little bit of a forecast before the election.
02:46:42.000The most recent poll from Monmouth had Joe Lamb, or Joe Lamb, I keep wanting to call him Joe Lamb, Connor Lamb, because he's just like an average Joe kind of a guy.
02:46:52.000Connor Lamb, they had Connor Lamb up by six points in the most recent poll.
02:46:57.000Rabba Research had them up four points.
02:47:21.000Should I just play like a game on Miniclip while we wait?
02:47:23.000Because that's, I mean, that's really what it comes down to here.
02:47:27.000Just waiting for absentees to come into the next 20 minutes and the two precincts left remaining.
02:47:34.000But again, we've said it before, we've said it again.
02:47:37.000I think the takeaway that we all concurred on from Ricky Vaughn to McPheels to myself the two predominant things are GOP has to get this stuff together.
02:48:08.000They're fighting, and they don't know what it's going to look like if Republicans are going to be able to gerrymander as much as they have or if the courts will rewrite it.
02:48:16.000This district won't even exist by November.
02:48:30.000I don't think they will offer a big injection to the Democratic Party because at the end of the day, this was about local politics, not about national politics.
02:49:37.000Has sung to the rooftops that he campaigned on that distinguished him from all the other Republicans in the primaries in 2016 opioids, trade, the economy, to some extent, I guess, healthcare, infrastructure.
02:49:51.000And these are all things which the GOP, in which Sacon, were not effective.
02:49:56.000They weren't even good, as far as I'm concerned, as getting the message out on those things.
02:49:59.000And we could pull up, maybe we could do this.
02:50:01.000We'll pull up Rick Sacon's website, and I'll just show you what we're dealing with here.
02:52:36.000He just looks like a really solid guy.
02:52:38.000And it was unfortunate because if you watched the campaign rally with Trump, he got up, and when he started speaking, his voice was all rough.
02:52:47.000His voice, I don't know if that's from campaigning or what, but it seemed like he lost his voice.
02:53:42.000Nobody who's been killed by the Obama economy, killed by Obamacare, killed by a gang member, killed by opioids, nobody hears lower taxes, more jobs, government reform, fixing Obamacare, immigration reform, keeping us safe.
02:53:54.000Nobody hears this stuff and gets energized.
02:55:19.000And not like people are going to his campaign website.
02:55:21.000Not to say that people are making their decision based on, oh, I went to the website and I like this or that.
02:55:26.000But it just goes to show the campaign rhetoric that's being used in the literature, that's being used in the stump speeches, that's being used in the appearances.
02:56:34.000It looks like that's about, what, 1,100 for each?
02:56:38.000So that doesn't look like that's all of the absentee, if it is.
02:56:42.000But they are reporting that Lamb has now pulled ahead with about an 850 vote lead, which.
02:56:48.000That's tough to see how Sacon comes back from that.
02:56:50.000I don't think there's enough votes in Westmoreland to recover that.
02:56:53.000If that tally is correct that CNN is reporting, and I'm not seeing it on New York Times, but if that's correct, it looks like the race is over, and it looks like it's decidedly for Lamb.
02:57:03.000But I'll wait for New York Times to publish that.
02:57:06.000We'll see where those numbers came from, because New York Times is still telling us 95 in.
02:57:11.000Or, no, I'm sorry, New York Times is now adjusted, and Connor Lamb leads with 847 votes.
02:57:19.000Still, we got two precincts left, so I guess that was the absentee.
02:58:48.000You know, Sacone, he's still in it, he's still alive, but it's not looking good for him.
02:58:53.000Looks like it's going to come really down to the wire.
02:58:55.000So, anyway, we'll keep an eye on that.
02:58:57.000But back to what we were saying about the messaging you look at the website here and what Sacone is saying, and there's nothing about opioids, there's nothing about infrastructure, there's nothing about outsourcing.
02:59:48.000I'm saying this as a voter in Pennsylvania.
02:59:51.000People that are out there getting killed with the Obamacare mandate and with higher premiums, they're not going to hear, what's really important to me is that we utilize the free market.
03:01:36.000I don't know, though, because Connor Lamb came through on the ideas, but then again, he came in because he's a young, attractive white guy who has credentials in his role as a federal prosecutor and all the rest.
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