00:03:27.040And joining us today on the podcast for an in-depth autistic conversation beyond all measure is my great friend and yours, the magnificent, the prolific, the belligerent, live from Barsim, it is John Carter of Mars.0.99
00:16:20.040get to watch as the Americans sabotage the effectiveness of their own technology sector0.99
00:16:27.580by packing it full of sort of ADIQ JavaScript monkeys whose only contribution is to just break1.00
00:16:37.560shit all over the place, thereby relegating, as you said, the small number of competent people0.85
00:16:44.260still working in the industry to effectively running around fixing their mistakes all the time.0.89
00:16:50.040And then simultaneously dealing with the not just the sort of humiliation of that, but the humiliation of having to bite their tongues around these people all the time and, you know, like pretend that none of this is happening.
00:17:03.300And sometimes being told to train their H-1B replacements or they won't get their severance pay.
00:17:09.340You know, you hear about those kinds of abuses all the time.
00:17:12.680It's really just just such a terrible, terrible, terrible system.
00:17:15.760and i don't know if you saw uh eric weinstein who you know i'm not going to endorse the guy
00:17:20.160he's got a lot of views that you know like yeah i think we we know the thing with eric weinstein
00:17:26.980but um he has been right on the h1b question he is apparently one of the first people to start
00:17:32.940raising this problem uh because like way back in like the late 1980s when he was like a postdoc
00:17:38.100uh he uh came across this like um sort of study this confidential study that uh was being released
00:17:48.580like um in like the what was the government was with some three-letter government agency that
00:17:55.520like manages research in the u.s and basically the the money goblins um were um worried that
00:18:06.260They would have to start paying sort of like mid six figure incomes to American scientists because the demand for STEM talent was going to outstrip the supply.
00:18:20.680And of course, you know, if that happens, then you get more talented people going into that line, into that line of work and the wages kind of start to come down and like, you know, it all works out in the end, right?0.96
00:18:33.160Like in a market economy, like these things fixed themselves pretty quickly, but they just, you know, they kind of ignored that part of it and were like, oh, we need to import like all of these foreign scab workers.0.86
00:18:46.540and thus the H-1B program was born,0.75
00:18:49.540depressing wages across the entire American tech sector
00:19:13.620They don't want to do that work, whatever.1.00
00:19:16.540But if you have something which is intrinsically very demanding, very difficult to master, requires a high level of not just like, you know, natural talent, but just an enormous amount of work, even if you have that natural talent to master these difficult skills, then, and it's not well compensated.
00:19:42.960people have less desire to go into it they will go into something where they can make a lot more
00:19:48.720money like if you're smart right you're like well okay do i go do i get an engineering job
00:19:54.020or do i study physics or something uh where i'm all if i'm lucky i'll make like you know0.97
00:19:59.880low six figures as an engineer or a professor or something or i'll go into fucking finance0.65
00:20:06.440and specialize in like you know squeezing like small percentages out of micro transactions0.95
00:20:12.720using mathematical algorithms on the stock trading market
00:20:15.460and make like, you know, half a million dollars a year doing that.
00:20:20.100Like, obviously, like, you know, a lot of the top talent
00:20:24.440is then going to like flood into like, you know, things like that.
00:20:27.040Or, you know, I guess modern equivalent these days would be like, you know, crypto scams, right?
00:20:32.380So like, by depressing the wages, you're actually like,
00:20:36.840you're squeezing off your own talent pipeline.
00:20:39.400And then it's exacerbated when, you know, the low quality scab labor is getting used for the entry level positions that would normally be the point, the place where you would start training the next generation to do these technical tasks in the first place, which like, you know, now you just can't get those jobs.
00:20:57.680um i mean the entire thing is actually just so infuriating and humiliating and disgusting and
00:21:04.400like counterproductive and just just actually fucking evil um that uh yeah i mean it just has
00:21:12.820it has to end it has to end tomorrow um and i really hope that this humiliating deep seek moment
00:21:25.780uh which you know some people are are comparing to sputnik although i think that's a bit hyperbolic
00:21:33.040um will sort of make the right people in the government and we have the right people in the
00:21:43.180government now i think in the u.s we'll make them sort of reconsider certain aspects of american
00:22:09.640Yeah, and the U.S. is an interesting case
00:22:13.960because the U.S., basically every industry in
00:22:17.980america has been hollowed out except for defense contracting because defense contracting you need
00:22:25.900a u.s citizenship and a security clearance so that's the one industry in the entire u.s that
00:22:32.240that isn't completely hollowed out that still has like um skilled graduates from like top american
00:22:40.740schools operating it and so america weirdly becomes this place where where you have like
00:22:49.080one functional industry that exists to militarily enforce all the rules that make everything else
00:22:55.940non-functional which is a hollowing out civilization where every institution is
00:23:01.860declining except but even even defense contracting even defense contracting is
00:23:07.180really defense contract sorry to cut you off even defense contracting has been hollowed out in the0.70
00:23:13.460u.s so like america american shipbuilding cannot keep up with the chinese like battle like it's so0.71
00:23:20.920far behind it's not even funny russia outstrips the u.s and its ability to manufacture ammunition
00:23:27.520uh artillery shells things like that i mean they've been the whole ukraine war right like
00:23:32.700Russia has been fighting with both hands tied behind its back in Ukraine while NATO has been going full out and basically draining its arsenals, unable to keep up with the cadence of production required for, like, this little fucking border war, actually, like, you know, in a former Soviet country.
00:23:51.700um so uh you know the the hollowing out of america's primary industries has also affected
00:24:02.180the defense contractors i mean people working directly in it like they're kind of protected
00:24:06.880by like itar regulations and such um but even so like you you need that industrial base
00:24:13.420sort of beneath it beneath that uh defense sector in order for it to be properly productive
00:24:21.360so i mean i would agree with what you're saying that's the one thing in the u.s which is still
00:24:27.500semi-functional but like even that is a shadow of what it used to be yeah no i the ratio i keep
00:24:37.460hearing with regards to ukraine is 10 to 1 that there are um 10 to 1 artillery shells being fired
00:24:46.160by the russians versus the ukrainians and that's with the entire u.s industrial base behind it
00:24:52.120that for the life of them the u.s has not been able to increase production at like the three
00:24:59.800plants in stratton penn pennsylvania that actually uh turn out artillery shells because
00:25:07.180ultimately because congress um there's no special interest group that wants more money going to
00:25:14.780artillery shells you know if you think of all the big big defense contractors boeing uh lockheed
00:25:21.620martin all of them they're all technical contract contractors and they all have like huge technical
00:25:27.960divisions decade to making advanced missile systems that require tons of jobs making like
00:25:34.520400k a year all these complex systems for that require so many degree holders so many
00:25:42.160ex-military officers and whatnot that now when a war comes along that requires just a raw number
00:25:49.100of artillery shells to be churned out uh none of those lobbyists are at all interested in expanding
00:25:57.200that indeed they see it as their job to choke out the um the plants that are churning out
00:26:02.780artillery shells because that's money that's going to them instead of to you know workers
00:26:10.200in scranton pennsylvania making like 70k a year instead of instead of going to them or instead of
00:26:16.420getting shipped directly to ukraine where it's immediately like money laundered and half it goes
00:26:21.200goes missing but um a big a big part of the h1b thing that i don't think people appreciate
00:26:28.460is how much the u.s runs off like like anti-racism infinite money hacks so so obviously there's
00:26:39.160There's the example of like, you know, DEI leadership meetings, DEI consultants who go into companies and can just demand like tens of thousands of dollars for like a few days work to basically nag employees to not be racist and make them do workshops on like Maya Angelou and whatnot.0.58
00:27:02.180But but the big thing in like basically all of you U.S. institutions is that you can for sure an institution to a position where it's give you money or you get accused of racism.
00:27:20.140You can basically siphon infinite money out of them because employment law, anti-discrimination law, if they go to court, it's going to cost them even more if they refuse you.
00:27:34.360So you get these bean counters, these employment officers at company who decide they need H-1Bs, they want H-1Bs.
00:27:48.080This is a way to save money for the company.
00:27:52.480And basically no other person in the company, no one from the technical side, no one from the management side, no one from leadership, can actually say, no, they're going to do a worse job.
00:28:02.580they'll be objectively worse worse there's a trade-off here between cheaper labor and like
00:28:08.500quality of work being done and long-term viability of the company because if you make that argument1.00
00:28:13.100if you make that argument that that there's no way h-1b's will be held to the same standard there's
00:28:19.180no way that they will perform the same quality of work well that's racism what are you saying and
00:28:24.960like you can imagine sitting in the office as this is being proposed as a way to get around
00:28:30.600around an administrative cost being the one person in that off in that meeting who says well
00:28:37.840they'll do long-term damage to to the quality of our output they'll do long-term damage
00:28:43.580to to our company values i'll do long-term damage to our quality of employee you can imagine if you0.99
00:28:52.740sit there and say that and all of a sudden you have like these horizons and h h are all staring
00:28:59.720down at you looking to start start a fight over it and if you say one wrong thing arguing against
00:29:05.960it if you say one thing that makes a good soundbite hell if you even say it perfectly
00:29:10.420there's going to be a lawsuit for hostile work environment anti-discrimination
00:29:15.700nation you'll probably lose your job and you'll probably cost company a ton or you can just say
00:29:22.360nothing and let them and let them push forward this a from b program and then as soon as it's
00:29:28.920place on paper they can demand a promotion and a bonus because on paper they just saved
00:29:36.720x million dollars in employment costs why aren't you giving me a promotion why aren't you giving
00:29:41.580me a bonus why aren't you getting giving me a piff or award or why aren't you recommending0.82
00:29:47.680this are you racist i just saved you more money than anyone else in the company0.65
00:29:52.220company so it becomes this pump whereby you can force companies and institutions to do0.84
00:30:28.160get into management positions into positions where they have the power to hire directly1.00
00:30:35.240and then somehow all of their departments that they're in charge of start filling up with0.99
00:30:41.060with other h1 bindians right and then they they gradually sort of like colonize um colonize the
00:30:48.400company um and very soon like there's whole departments if not entire corporations where1.00
00:30:53.660you just can't get it if you're because you're white and you only hire indians like period you0.97
00:30:58.720know and they start outsourcing things back to like their cousins in bangalore or whatever to0.97
00:31:02.500save extra money like it's like the only it's like basically their their business model is0.74
00:31:06.780uh we hire i am indian i hire indians but because indians are cheap and that saves the company0.96
00:31:12.880money hey look at that i cut payroll uh therefore profits are up and this works in like the on like1.00
00:31:21.440quarterly uh uh level you know yeah you've cut payroll profits are up that quarter but then
00:31:28.840you know you're bowing and your airplanes start falling into the sky you know uh like bad things
00:31:36.800start happening to your stock price in the long run um it's just an incredibly uh destructive
00:31:45.280process but uh everything that's happened in the last month i am incredibly optimistic that
00:31:52.060we're actually on the good timeline now like i think we've sort of like woken up from the
00:31:58.240nightmare and the preference cascade is happening in real time at least in the u.s um and and this
00:32:06.360stuff is all going to be dismantled ripped apart over the next few years um you know
00:32:15.140like why are companies so desperately afraid of being um charged with being discriminatory right
00:32:23.520and the answer basically comes down to two things you have um civil rights acts you know the
00:32:30.860anti-discrimination clause and you have um griggs v duke power disparate impact right uh well
00:32:40.420Now, Griggs v. Duke Power, I saw something recently that's being challenged, actually, at like a state Supreme Court level, and they're going to try to bring that up to the Supreme Court.
00:32:55.780And with the current composition of the Supreme Court, there's a pretty good chance that gets overturned.
00:33:01.460If Griggs v. Duke Power gets overturned, disparate impact goes away.
00:33:05.120suddenly civil rights law reverts back to yeah you just have to be colorblind in your
00:33:12.780hiring practices you can't explicitly take race into account okay well now we're just actually
00:33:20.120going for the best people well i mean you know it's better than nothing and frankly i think
00:33:26.280white people can compete pretty well on a level playing field um and if there's no more legal
00:33:32.120threat of getting dragged into the courts for discriminating for like implicit discrimination
00:33:36.620or something uh corporations are no longer going to be so terrified about that um the their internal
00:33:44.220woke ideologues that you know frankly people kind of hate uh corporations are like well we don't need
00:33:52.260crazy hr ladies anymore actually because you know why do they need crazy hr ladies well because you
00:33:58.440never know what's going to get you dragged into court for a discrimination uh lawsuit so you put1.00
00:34:03.560people in uh the company who are the craziest most deranged insane purple haired like pronoun0.98
00:34:12.880bunnies you can fucking find and as long as they're happy you're probably good right like if0.99
00:34:20.240you haven't like you know walked uh transgressed one of their like weird boundaries like okay like0.99
00:34:26.080you know that's about as extreme as it gets so you should be like no one else is going to try to
00:34:29.740sue you right but um you don't have to work getting sued for this kind of thing anymore0.99
00:34:33.560you don't need those people so okay you're fired like go pick fruit fuck you you know uh and and0.97
00:34:40.960things can just start reverting back to like you know normal like i mean there's probably entire0.99
00:34:47.420companies are just gonna have to be like dismantled ultimately because the rot is so deep0.86
00:34:51.920I like the academy academia I'm still very black building academia um but but then again like I0.94
00:35:03.560said I mean like this preference cascade is moving so fast it almost feels like this sort of like
00:35:08.660like fall of the Soviet Union kind of vibe right now we're like just people just do not care about
00:35:17.180being called racist anymore like whatever I don't really care about that Margaret you know like0.99
00:35:21.260like like shut up like we've been listening to you fucking people go on for like 60 years now0.99
00:35:25.780and it's brought us like nothing but pain uh so we're done we're all just done we're not going0.99
00:35:30.320to pretend anymore and you can see this like sort of like propagating through society and then the
00:35:34.880other side are actually very sort of like passive and demoralized right now you know disorganized
00:35:41.560they're sort of like they're disoriented they don't know what to do uh like they're like they're just
00:35:47.900very sad you know they're having a nice little cry um but they're not rioting in the streets
00:35:54.220you know the civil war hasn't started like all of those things that we're all so convinced
00:35:58.360or worried or even looking forward to um like it doesn't seem to be happening actually it's just
00:36:06.100it's it's like it's coming down yeah like i said like the way the soviet union came down
00:36:11.900almost with a shot being fired which is incredible uh if if it does turn out that way and we're still
00:36:16.980in the early process of this but um yeah yeah no i mean it's it's it's definitely uh
00:36:28.380uh very optimistic feeling right now i think yeah so i am vastly more pessimistic than you
00:36:37.980and the reason for that is um i think the u.s has an expiration date uh so so your press
00:36:49.240prince cascade theory i think it's like kind of right i think given enough time like uh it'd be
00:36:57.560maybe a 10 year long process that we get to like the civil rights act being effectively
00:37:03.640undone or like heavily heavily denuded and like stripped back to like i don't know whatever the
00:37:11.460boomers thought it was uh that that you know if griggs versus duke power was overturned etc etc
00:37:19.860we get it to a point here's the thing though griggs versus duke power is just an interpretation
00:37:26.480of the 1964 civil rights act like it's not an interpretation of the 14th amendment which is
00:37:32.900usually how they, like, backdoor in tons of anti-discrimination law into the U.S. through
00:37:38.520the courts. It's just an interpretation of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which is just an act of
00:37:44.920Congress. Congress could have passed any law in the past 60 years to just clarify that, oh,
00:37:51.860disparate impact is not the standard we're applying. You can use IQ tests for employment.
00:37:57.060that could have just been an ordinary law passed by ordinary means and that would have had
00:38:04.140the same effect because the civil rights act is just an ordinary law um but the u.s right now um
00:38:12.900so the u.s right now is kind of cascading towards a debt crisis um this is where i'm an old
00:38:21.240libertarian uh i i remember when i was like a really weak weak child following ron ron follow
00:38:28.700him talking about the debt crisis and i remember everyone thinking that the u.s was probably going
00:38:34.300to fall apart around 2015 and the reason the u.s was going to fall apart around 2015 is the u.s was
00:38:41.500death spiraling through all all these um welfare welfare state expenses it was printing all this
00:38:48.760money to deal with the 2008 financial crisis and basically every libertarian thought well 2015 is
00:38:57.620basically the point of no return like if you don't pass um social security reform medicare reform
00:39:04.440all these polluting death spirally expense expenses are basically ponzi schemes if you don't pass by
00:39:11.3602015 there's really no way to pass it in a pain relatively painless way at all and
00:39:18.800basically after that it become it's going to be very painfully clear that the u.s can never and
00:39:25.680will never pass reform to social security medicare and all of that will be too painful
00:39:30.680afterwards um it would involve like actually like throwing people out of nursing homes or like
00:39:36.900actually cutting off old people from social security and the debt the projected expenses
00:39:43.920would have ballooned so much that at that point it'll become clear it's never going to get fixed
00:39:49.740and as soon as it's clear it's never going to get fixed the market which libertarian brain you think
00:39:55.100well the market is rational as soon as that's clear the market will react immediately uh so
00:40:00.880all these libertarians assume well as soon as we pass that like point of no return the market's
00:40:06.800going to crash immediately because it'll be clear to the market that that there's no point in
00:40:12.000investing in the future of america because we're we're trapped in it um so obviously the market
00:40:19.520didn't crash it turns out the the stock market and housing market and all the equities markets
00:40:26.660of america are driven by the fed they're not actually driven by the rational expectations
00:40:31.200of investors. But the point still stood that late 2015-ish was basically a point of no return where
00:40:40.440it would take exponentially more political will to solve this problem every year and it would
00:40:46.600become exponentially more painful to solve it. And then the thing is, well, okay, if the market's
00:40:52.020never going to rationally crack, what's the next point? And the next point is when the expenses
00:40:57.220start going asymptotic when they just start going exponential and you start seeing like right now
00:41:05.320we're at a two trillion dollar deficit a year like that could we're over a trillion dollar deficit
00:41:11.160i'm not sure for it actually two now i've i've been looking at the numbers a bit but basically
00:41:17.140around like 2028 2030 is when we start seeing it spiral and you get to insane stuff like five
00:41:25.120trillion dollar deficit is a year 10 trillion dollar deficits a year by like by like 2034 it
00:41:32.860ish is when you'd expect and basically every question about u.s policy about u.s the u.s
00:41:40.920fixing its industry all this has been happening under the assumption for at least libertarians
00:41:49.300and, like, arch-doomers like me that Trump doesn't just have to, like, arrest the woke stuff
00:41:58.020and start the U.S. on the path to, like, not being screwed up within, like, 10, 15 years.
00:42:04.440He has to do it at a breakneck pace in order to, like, beat the clock on this debt spiral
00:42:14.540that's probably going to kill the country
00:48:38.820yeah the um the number that i came up came up with looking at it was um that basically by 2030
00:48:50.920every american man woman and child will be about one million dollars poorer than they think they
00:48:58.180are so that might be that might be they expect some benefit that they aren't going to get that
00:49:04.880might be that they have to pay taxes to sustain that those benefits that are coming i mean that
00:49:10.620might be there's like paper assets they're actually worthless that they think are about
00:49:15.280valuable but some way shape or form every some equivalent of every american man woman child
00:49:22.780it's going to lose a million dollars or they're going to be successful in imposing their losses0.97
00:49:29.020on another american basically so the mass deportation of the migrants is probably a good
00:49:38.120proxy for like like the trump administration being able to impose those concentrate those
00:49:44.280losses on like a few of their enemies in that um basically migrants do not add to an economy net
00:49:53.720over a lifetime they momentarily boost an economy uh so at the point of entry a migrant is like
00:50:01.740generally some an indian migrant or latino migrant is like adding to an economy at the point of
00:50:10.460entry but over a lifetime they're net net negative they don't ever become net tax they1.00
00:50:17.180don't become net taxpayers and of course some of the worst migrants like Haitians or um0.98
00:50:22.780or like Syrians or Pakistanis um are even net negative at the point of entry like they're more0.98
00:50:30.940likely to become a welfare bum immediately than they are to find a job but the basically for
00:50:39.460America to solve it's a classic case of basically for America to solve its problem it has to find
00:50:47.140a way to add one million dollars per person it's a classic case of uh of um privatized gains and0.51
00:50:56.740socialized losses right so you know illegals or or h1ds or what have you they come in uh and
00:51:04.800it's cheap labor um and and more expensive housing actually as as everyone in canada knows0.99
00:51:12.160which benefits you know the people at the top um but then you have all of these social costs
00:51:19.560uh to social services directly and then you know in the sort of indirect costs um
00:51:26.120that are caused are caused by their presence which the taxpayer picks up the bill for so
00:51:32.260So, you know, the net effect, society overall gets poorer by their presence, like on a per capita basis, but a few people get rich, which, you know, thinking about the possible fiscal collapse state of the U.S. with the unsustainable debt and so on, I don't know, I sort of, there might actually even be like an opportunity there.
00:51:57.140you know you talk about like rewarding your friends and punishing your enemies well like
00:52:00.720if someone's gonna have to hold the bag and have like an absolutely bleak and terrible future
00:52:07.600like i mean i think we can all think of like you know a class of people whom it would be amusing
00:52:15.600to to see uh thrown into the most abject poverty you know um like you know what one idea i keep
00:52:25.440coming back to because you see um you see like people being like oh you know when when the
00:52:31.800illegals all get sent away like who's going to pick the fruit you know who's going to work like0.97
00:52:35.860the terrible jobs and i'm like well we also have all these di compassars and you know other0.95
00:52:43.920associated just useless admin types uh the people who all supported all of this in the first place
00:52:49.460and profited by it um that we're not actually going to need anymore in the new order like
00:52:54.800they're kind of superfluous you know uh so we make them pick the fruit and don't pay them well
00:53:02.620you know and and uh save a lot of money that way i mean that sounds brutal but like1.00
00:53:14.840but i mean even all that said like i think there i think there is really a potential for1.00
00:53:22.640levels of economic growth yeah i don't think picking is actually uh okay so so i say that
00:53:32.160like for picking a lot of these like illegal jobs that a lot of people promote like the vast
00:53:37.600majority of jobs that illegals do aren't jobs that like weren't done without them they were
00:53:43.120jobs that were done by teenagers yes without them that um a huge part of the effect of illegal
00:53:49.180immigration has been to just kind of destroy the economy for like low-level labor and
00:53:55.680and really like as amusing as it is the thought of making all the government employees0.95
00:54:03.420uh take fruit and like surrender their assets assets which they should do because that stole
00:54:11.720money and it's like taxation is theft by the libertarian law and certainly it's theft when
00:54:16.520And it's like for explicitly fraudulent purposes, which is most of what the government admin jobs do is very much fraud on all levels and like openly like using false data knowingly to try and propagate these systems.
00:54:35.700But the truth is, like, most of them would have to be used for hard labor for them to consolidate the costs.
00:54:44.940And it wouldn't be, it wouldn't be, like, road paving or, like, clearing brush and stuff.
00:54:51.600To make it actually work, you'd have to be setting up, like, prison colonies in Greenland where they're working in mines and stuff.
00:54:58.620Like, you'd have to use them for, like, actual, like, hard, miserable labor.
00:55:02.780which quite frankly i'm i've always been like kind of disappointed that north america never
00:55:08.160did this already with its prison population like the idea of like making someone sit in the dark
00:55:13.480dungeon in like i don't know angola angola louisiana as opposed to like shipping them off to
00:55:22.040alaska to like actually do something productive always seemed bizarre to me canada 100 should
00:55:30.040have prison colonies just like the russians russians had because like how else do you get
00:55:36.180people up and up north to do these hard labor in like minus 40 so like that's probably what it
00:55:45.000would look like if we had to try to consolidate the costs on on like a semi-criminal subset of
00:55:52.320the population who've been defrauding us for 40 years but um but really like i i don't really
00:56:01.680think there's a way to concentrate because that well i think best case scenario we're going to
00:56:07.440be going through like a hard time equivalent to equivalent to the soviet union after the fall
00:56:14.760the ussr and you know our guys could come out on top our guys could win win that but like
00:56:21.660we're going to be looking at something probably approximating weimar or or post-soviet conditions
00:56:28.820in the best case scenario most likely we're probably going to see like at least a few states
00:56:34.020in the u.s become like balkanized and have rolling uh ethnic ethnic conflicts probably
00:56:41.260several and this is like the good scenario this is like the scenario where
00:56:47.100Donald Trump actually implements all his all his policies like he actually secures a lot of wins
00:56:52.820for our guys and it just becomes like a low-scale like crisis that lasts a decade you know if um
00:56:59.940if Trump manages to screw up or like get railroaded into world war three
00:57:07.020or get drawn into conflict in iran or get drawn into like a post-imperial crisis crisis like
00:57:16.560there's a lot of ways that this like death spirals far far greater like um i i'm known
00:57:23.860as the person who's always taken for a war basically 2038 ish there is going to be a
00:57:30.160conflict somewhere there's there's definitely on the north american continent like 2038 there's
00:57:37.680going to be a conflict on the north american continent that's going to be like seemingly
00:57:42.420intractable look like the balkans this question is just is that going to be concentrated one area
00:57:48.220or is that going to be all of it and what year will it start that's but there's no way we're
00:57:55.980getting to 2040 without something like that a great cleansing fire um so i think i think one of
00:58:04.640the uh things that's worth keeping in mind is it's a rather distinct difference between
00:58:11.160um the fall of the soviet union and what's happening now uh so the soviet politburo
00:58:21.320uh during that period like it didn't really have much depth of support amongst the population
00:58:29.080and it didn't really believe in itself as a class i mean the large part of the reason that
00:58:34.580the ussr fell apart was just this kind of like total lack of faith in communism anymore i just
00:58:44.260no one could bring themselves to publicly
01:17:49.640Which means you would have had a bunch of people coming forward and being like, I'm the heir. No, I'm the heir. No, you should listen to me. No, follow me.
01:17:57.860And it would have been completely uncoordinated, whereas the feds would have been nice and centralized, well-coordinated, and they would have had a pretty good shot of wrapping, of rolling it all up, I think.
01:18:13.780but you said there was this hearts of iron 4 mod uh i'm actually interested um
01:18:21.940who has the advantage on that map well that's the in the game itself i haven't actually played
01:18:32.960i just saw like memes of it um in the game itself the the game starts uh during the 2020 election
01:18:44.020so your decisions during the 2020 election determine like whether you're playing as a
01:18:50.240deep state or whether you're playing as trump uh whether you're going to like whether you're
01:18:56.300riding with biden or whether you're you're maga to the end and um you can actually play as like
01:19:02.480lots of different factions um i saw like a clip of one guy like trying to make um the japanese
01:19:08.640empire re-arise from like the u.s civil war or that like that's happening and this guy is like
01:19:16.960trying to like have shinzo abe lead a revolution through through the u.s civil civil war and stuff
01:19:26.000there's other factions that like you can play as russia so like it's inclusive of like the war in
01:19:31.460ukraine you can play as asad um you can play as israel well you can play as like justin trudeau's
01:19:38.860canada um a big part of it is like the lockdown is like it has a big effect it is a very like
01:19:46.180interesting setup one does get the feel that that is like one of the great historical moments that
01:19:52.020like did not happen that like um you know they're like you said they're all the nukes pointing
01:20:00.280everywhere and and it came down to like the decision of like a few men at that point that
01:20:08.640um you know the cascade could have started started happening i i'm kind of i'm eternally
01:20:15.060disappointed that um the right is united under trump that he has the kind of mandate of heaven
01:20:23.600he has the divine right of kings he is our avatar because um i i think like that's putting a huge
01:20:33.540damper on a lot of like the ideological possibilities of the right that um i think
01:20:39.660if you had uh that distributed resistance versus like centrally controlled um uh left-wing u.s
01:20:48.520federal government uh you probably would have gone like a lot of really interesting factions
01:20:53.280come about and probably like um we would have seen like a lot of the contradictions of leftism
01:21:01.700in the u.s or weaknesses i always hate the communist phrase contradictions but a lot of
01:21:07.700the weaknesses of u.s leftism revealed trying to like combat rebellions of like the northwest the
01:21:15.600south etc and i i'm anarcho-catholic so i always like the idea of many different sovereign
01:21:23.220entities competing at once for prominence i think that would have probably you know might have
01:21:30.120started a new dark age but it also would have probably started with advanced institutions like
01:21:35.260a thousand years in like 12 years so so that as an anarcho-capitalist if you are a science fiction
01:21:42.760writer or an alternate history writer that that that 2020 is going to be your um a great subject
01:21:52.560matter for years to come anyway sorry john go away take a war as an anarcho-capitalist uh hoppy and
01:22:00.240leninist um like i uh i guess you must be uh interested to see this this new idea that's
01:22:09.820being trial ballooned by mike lee uh the senator and don trump jr and elon musk um
01:22:19.340to invoke the clause in the Constitution
01:22:23.840that allows the government to issue letters of mark
01:36:04.360any previous time in the history of canada if the americans had been like we're gonna try to annex0.97
01:36:11.020canada the canadians all would have like picked up their weapons and been like fucking fight me
01:36:16.000and the americans would have backed down and then that's literally happened actually in the past um0.94
01:36:21.460you know there was a very strong sense of asabia in canada the shared ethnic identity of canada
01:36:28.880as something very distinct from the US, particularly in the sense that we were this redoubt of
01:36:37.520tradition, this kind of reactionary, illiberal contrast to America. They were the liberal
01:36:49.600revolutionaries. We were the ones who held to the old ways in the modern world, in the new world.
01:36:56.400And of course the Liberals, Liberal Party, have spent a couple generations now doing their best to completely erase that ethnic heritage, to erase that ethos to the point where the modern Canadian is completely deracinated, doesn't even know it exists.
01:37:10.840um and then on top of that uh the current liberal government has over the last 10 years
01:37:17.940successfully demoralized canada to the point that when trump jokes i personally hope he's joking
01:37:25.880uh but maybe he's not about um annexing canada the reaction from ordinary canadians is shrug
01:37:33.800like uh not totally in favor of it but uh what are you gonna do you know and then of course
01:37:40.160you know the military aspects uh you know post world war ii america would not have been able to
01:37:44.580invade canada bloodlessly the canadian military is actually quite large and well trained well
01:37:49.580now it's a joke like you said it's the jokiest army in nato we used to be not that long ago
01:37:58.720known for being small not necessarily having the best kits but being extraordinarily professional
01:38:07.500very well trained and just lethal uh now i mean the training standards have fallen through the
01:38:14.880floor the recruitment standards have fallen through the floor leadership is terrible
01:38:17.900so we don't even have that we're both small and poorly equipped and poorly trained with poor
01:38:22.620morale it's it's it's shambles thus america has the best opportunity it has had at any time
01:45:21.160to demoralize further the Canadian military
01:45:23.120to make sure they don't fight too hard,
01:45:24.540which I honestly don't think they would.0.98
01:45:26.000And then I would follow through on that by, yes, going in, rounding up all of the Canadian, existing Canadian elite, like, everyone in the government, everyone in, like, the Laurentian elites, like, all of these fucking people, and liquidating them, you know?0.88
01:45:42.840like um not just to remove like sort of like the local ruling class you can kind of replace it0.62
01:45:50.020with your own but also as like a propaganda move frankly because like you want the canadian people
01:45:57.080to support you well take out the people they hate you know and be seen doing that and like
01:46:03.520they'll be cheering like the only the only political movement in canada right now that's0.99
01:46:09.360had legs in years is fuck trudeau right which is this this purely negative like they don't like0.99
01:46:18.600the fuck trudeau people they don't stand for anything they really have like an ideology per1.00
01:46:23.400se it's very incoet uh they're just sort of they just really hate trudeau and everything he stands1.00
01:46:29.820for and sort of the people around him as well but they're not really for anything themselves and
01:46:37.300that's kind of representative of the feeling that i get amongst a lot of normally canadians
01:46:44.580when i talk to them which is that you know they're dissatisfied they're angry uh they don't
01:46:49.960really know what the way forward is which is why they're sort of depressed and demoralized um
01:46:55.300and uh so yeah i mean that would be that would be the way to do it um uh for reference to people0.99
01:47:03.800at home fuck trudeau is a product it is a flag that literally just says fuck trudeau on it1.00
01:47:10.740there is no political movement aside from the flag like there is no um there's no fuck trudeau1.00
01:47:18.040organization there's no fuck trudeau institute there's no fuck trudeau um super pack there's0.99
01:47:24.620nothing it's just a product that started being sold on the internet and now like half of canada0.99
01:47:29.800owns a flag that says fuck trudeau on it on it and like that's a big political identifier is that0.94
01:47:37.040in polite little rural canada with all these presbyterian white people0.99
01:47:42.380well uh they they fly flags with obscenity on it and like kids go to school walking by these black
01:47:51.340flags that's had the f word on on it and that's that's what rural canada is like like now that's
02:11:39.360yeah and that would have been nice you know then you know so like if however uh if there is like
02:11:48.740an almost historical inevitability anglo canada if if there's like a historical inevitability
02:11:55.580But like, you know, Anglo-Canada, at the very least, getting absorbed by the US.
02:12:04.640I do wonder, though, if those ideological and cultural currents in Canada, in Anglo-Canada especially, you know, do they just get snuffed out entirely by American liberalism?
02:12:23.720You know, they're hard to see now as it is, you know, due to the efforts of the Canadian government itself. On the other hand, the American popular consciousness is now trending in a very sort of illiberal direction itself.
02:25:58.440yeah interesting yeah i mean this the scottish analogy is a very interesting one to make um
02:26:07.700as far as i know at a political level that largely entailed was that scotland recognized the
02:26:25.060english crown as sovereign but otherwise i think it remained pretty much self-governing like they
02:26:32.460They just, you know, they maintained their clan structure and, you know, had their own sort of internal government that went on as it had before.
02:26:43.300It's just, you know, they recognize the sovereignty of the English king.
02:26:50.020So would something like that, I wonder, work with Canada, right?
02:26:56.400could the u.s just kind of like be like okay we're just going to capitate the canadian federal
02:27:01.380government uh canada is a territory now but otherwise like you know like the the governing
02:27:08.820structures below that you just leave them pretty much as they are and then you just have
02:27:14.080sort of a territorial government instead of the federal government they answer to um