00:05:02.860canadians versus the family compact upper class canadians and actually the canadians uh the
00:05:10.920the patriot um anti anti-family compact canadians the rebels of 1837 it's an interesting start
00:05:21.140because william mckenzie uh he was one of the few that made it out out okay he was a great
00:05:27.160printer and kind of founding father of upper canada he escapes to rochester new york and he
00:05:33.780keeps publishing until he receives a pardon uh several people were hanged but a huge chunk of
00:05:40.860them were transported to australia like this death march across the sea uh landed australia
00:05:48.720like had suffered horrible conditions in 1837 38 australia and then like over the course of
00:05:56.580five years five ten years man should save up enough money and make their way all the way back
00:06:03.240to canada and at that point at that point the rebels of 1837 had all like kind of received
00:06:10.820pardons or like uh it it been negotiated out so within about 10 years willie mckenzie was
00:06:19.780in the parliament of upper canada and so were several other of the other rebels of 1837
00:06:25.180And the name William McKenzie, if you know anything about Canadian history, this will sound like very familiar, but you're like, I don't know anything about 1837.
00:06:34.960The reason the name sounds familiar is because his, like, great-grandson was William Lyon McKenzie King, the Prime Minister, the longest-serving Prime Minister of Canada and the leader of Canada, Dear World War II.
00:06:48.500and william mckenzie have like 10 children and his children had 10 children each
00:06:55.620largely so like all of upper canada is descended from him i'm like a distant cousin uh half of
00:07:04.140half of upper canada is so like despite it being a failed rebellion and his dreams of u.s annexation
00:07:11.700of upper canada and the entire canadian west not coming to fruition uh it's still entirely his lamb
00:07:20.140like he he's like if there is a father of upper canada it's like between him and like it's him
00:07:30.340and like maybe tiger dunlop gets a mention as like an early early figure but these are the
00:07:36.660um but yeah there's like there's the 1812 characters and there's willie mckenzie that
00:07:44.800are the fathers of upper canada so this so whenever someone says to like trump's annexation schemes
00:07:52.060oh that's anti-patriotic that like no patriotic canadian will go for it the first canadian
00:07:59.000patriot was advocating american annexation and like half of upper canada's dissented from him
00:08:30.740They were from Poitiers in the west of France. Anglo-Canadians in the area you're from, they came out of New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.
00:08:41.960And as you said earlier, there were a fair amount of Dutch there.
00:08:45.220But I lived for a little bit in southern Ontario.
00:08:49.080And an interesting thing is I'm from Pennsylvania, and there's a lot of the same street names and the same town names in Pennsylvania as in that part of Ontario.
00:08:59.840as well as the same architecture because people from my part of pennsylvania moved to that part
00:09:05.700of canada and out by the maritimes it was more settlement from boston out through new england
00:09:11.780and i was re-watching the video i made two years ago about the fall of canada where i thought that
00:09:19.460video aged pretty well and i'm surprised at how well it aged because i was talking about the fall
00:09:25.100of Canada occurring decades from now but very recently Alberta sent a delegation out to America
00:09:32.720to consider joining which is one of the things I talked about because I said that there was a
00:09:37.300a relative probability that Alberta would join America in the future yeah so so this I kind of
00:09:47.620have a vision for this episode that um I don't know it might we might get into it it might wind
00:09:53.600up being like in hours of content we'll have to come back and do like supplement podcast episodes
00:09:59.760but um basically you famously predicted that um the 2020 election would result in civil war and
00:10:09.520i famously predicted that the sorry the 2024 election would result in civil war and i famously
00:10:15.640like joined you on that prediction that i thought thought it would as well and
00:10:21.360in the backs of both of our minds um there's this concept that like um old libertarians have
00:10:30.000and that like you see like percolating up through like most ideologies but basically
00:10:35.520the theory that animated both of us is that we're entering something of a world crisis over the next
00:10:43.940like 10 to 20 years that um between the finances of modern welfare states the kind of demographic
00:10:51.660collapse that we're seeing seeing with birth rates and the mass migrations that we're seeing out of
00:10:59.140the third world that basically every country certainly in the west but like actually largely
00:11:05.820the entire world is going through the demographic collapse basically every country is built on
00:11:10.700assumptions that not only aren't going to hold but like the exact opposite is going to going to
00:11:17.240happen and the finances of no country is really stable and basically in order for this to resolve
00:11:24.800there has to be a massive restructuring usually when you see a restructuring like that that on
00:11:30.800that scale it's the something the equivalent of a revolution or world war that occurs like maybe
00:11:37.360you get something like the 30 years war where it's like civil wars everywhere maybe you get like
00:11:42.560a world war maybe you get something like uh the french revolution but usually it's something of
00:11:47.780that scale that resolves contradictions across this many countries at this much of a scale and
00:11:56.420like this tied into the finances economics and poor demographics of the world so both you and i
00:12:04.380were predicting that that looking at the u.s and how the world was shaking out it was going to be
00:12:10.9602024 because you had this like heavily armed and like very powerful well populist movement
00:12:18.660that was basically completely shut out of levers of power uh the american unit party looked like
00:12:24.460basically unshakable in 2024 trump and we saw the how how overbearing was between the law fairy
00:12:34.260against trump the they arrested a former sitting president and like his mug shot is now like in
00:12:41.760the history books um there were multiple assassination attempts against against trump
00:12:48.320and what we saw what you would naturally assume was going to happen looking at it at it if anyone
00:12:57.060else except donald trump was there and anything had turned out slightly slightly differently what
00:13:02.700you'd expect is trump would either be dead imprisoned or like systemically humiliated in
00:13:09.140in some way and this would result in like a cascade of like loss of faith in the u.s democratic
00:13:17.740system and a descent into something like the irish troubles but on a much larger scale and
00:13:25.140then that would slowly death that would start to death spiral across the next decade as this crisis
00:13:31.240expanded and as the really incompetent incompetent but malicious leadership we have uh tries to
00:13:40.080escalate in in very wrong-headed ways and then of course that didn't happen uh uh if you want
00:13:51.020to say something about um just how likely conflict was in in 2024 i'd be interested
00:13:56.940okay so first of all i sent you a present by twitter dms um this is the video that i've
00:14:04.240already completed i want to release it today but i might not the video is what the fuck is the left
00:14:09.260even doing and it's a video where i study what's going on in the left right now and i handle the
00:14:15.840question about the whether or not i think there's going to still be a war so uh to answer your
00:14:22.280question and for some background i think you did a good job explaining it where i've spoken before
00:14:28.680about how i think the world is on the verge of something i call a secular cycle and secular
00:14:36.600cycles are these periodic rhythmic historic crises that occur roughly every 250 years and
00:14:43.580previous examples include the french revolution the black death uh or the 30 years war and
00:14:50.140you articulated it well where you said that there's this gridlock in the power structure
00:14:56.700that demands blood as a way to reset and normally between half to 20 of the population dies some is
00:15:04.680more some is less than that and i'm not going to go into my thesis that deeply solely for that
00:15:11.180because i don't know i think i probably have a hundred hours of content about it and i'm happy
00:15:15.160to talk about any individual sub part of it. But the thing I was known for is I have a bet going
00:15:22.540with my friend Andrew Heaton, who's a libertarian pundit, that there's going to be a thousand
00:15:26.820deaths, a thousand politically motivated deaths by the end of April. And I said that a year ago
00:15:33.960because for a variety of factors, I think that America is going to have a war. And I still think
00:15:40.180that America is going to have a war and that that war will be an event like the French Revolution
00:15:45.140or the american civil war an internal conflict between the right and the left so to articulate
00:15:50.600my position i still think we need to have a war i can explain why i believe that and that's for
00:15:57.420long-term historic factors and i just say shit i make predictions and i am completely open about
00:16:04.420my fallibility i like to say my job is betting against god and uh i i am i am a person who i do
00:16:13.220not have a magic crystal ball and um i'm making statistical projections and so the most difficult
00:16:19.300thing is getting the actual timing where um for a historic event you can get that there will be an
00:16:28.440event where there were people who predicted world war for every major war there were wise men who
00:16:33.580predicted it in advance where i frankly don't know if we'll have a thousand politically motivated
00:16:38.440deaths by april that's frankly um that's uh that's a random number i picked but i do think we will
00:16:45.160have a war in the next four years and if i'm wrong i'm wrong there's not much else to say
00:16:49.860i'm just firing shots and the shots hit sometimes but i if it doesn't occur within the next month
00:16:56.120it's because predicting is the most innately difficult part of this due to the chaos of the
00:17:01.080real world and if it doesn't happen in the next four years i'm just objectively wrong
00:17:05.980so so the interesting thing that like neither you nor i could really predict would be that
00:17:16.680the american left steamingly collapsed like overnight between uh really like election night
00:17:26.560obvious obviously but leading up to it the fact that biden collapsed into his own senility
00:17:33.240The fact that the Democratic Party simply could not have a primary because of, like, how internally divided it is on the issue of, like, Gaza and Israel.
00:17:46.180And the fact that their own rhetoric trapped them into, like, promoting Kamala Harris, who's, like, very emblematic of the type of people that the Democratic Party has been promoting and that the American left generally has been promoting into their leadership class.
00:18:32.320that like i could see a like far left movement cropping up and causing a lot of problems but
00:18:39.040the american like establishment left is like like basically does not exist right now without its
00:18:46.740attachment to europe like if europe did not exist and have like like um all these international
00:18:52.540bodies located there that are coherent and have like like still uh tons of like like white hyper
00:19:01.880educated bureaucrats who've been promoted into like this kind of globalist regime like the
00:19:08.160american left on its own would not be able to persist without that being there and that's where
00:19:15.000i think um so my reading of the the trump victory and kind of the fact that populism
00:19:23.360or a certain brand of populism oh we can maybe get into what what i think actually won in 2024
00:19:30.980for. But what Trump's victory did was it shifted the major fault lines of this massive crisis that
00:19:41.420was happening in the world from the U.S. and specifically like Appalachia and the rural U.S.
00:19:48.000where what it looked like and what every kind of American doomsday prepper has predicted for the
00:19:54.200past 30 years was that there was going to be kind of a final showdown between American like
00:20:01.020classical liberal but like really just rugged individualist ideals and like the founding
00:20:07.960principles and like world globalism on the other side somewhere in the force of Appalachia and the
00:20:16.320vast reaches of the American plains and like the mountains of the Pacific Northwest that the U.S.
00:20:21.620was going to erupt in conflict and it was going to be that was going to be the final showdown
00:20:25.980between globalism and and like prepper libertarianism or like white nationalism or the the
00:20:33.760american malicious spirit we'll call it and what trump's victory did was it shifted the fault lines
00:20:40.800of the world crisis to to now the u.s like that's a glee kind of hard to see see happening whereas
00:20:49.340Right now, it looks like Canada, Britain, Ireland, Ukraine, obviously, but all the European countries and like Commonwealth countries that you'd never think a crisis would happen in.
00:21:03.540All of a sudden, they're looking very, very shaky.
00:21:08.680So within just the British Isles, we've been seeing it building for a while, this late runners attacking ULES cameras.
00:21:19.340This is like if populist cyberpunk militias were attacking the New York City automatic tolling system.
00:21:33.000You can look at videos online of them hacking down traffic cameras and stuff,
00:21:37.860directly attacking the infrastructure of the state.
00:21:40.080And in Ireland, they've been burning migrant centers and spray painting signs that anyone working on the migrant centers or rebuilding them will be shot.
00:21:54.760And of course, there's been escalating rows of these attacks on white Britishers by machete-wielding migrants.
00:22:08.380and amidst like the the mass rape of british girls by migrant migrant rape gangs and and we've seen
00:22:20.300the trump administration i was shocked at this uh elon musk and like members of the trump
00:22:25.960administration are pouring gasoline on the uh on the british british uh ethnic tensions um
00:22:35.540musk famously has published publicized so much about the uh migrant rape gangs and like drawn
00:22:44.160drawn all this back up to like page one news news and like caused a real national crisis and
00:22:51.360imprint over this because it was the story that like the entire british establishment tried to
00:22:57.120bury and the entire british government tried to bury and now like the richest most media powerful
00:23:02.740man in the world is drawing it up to page one every single single day that very consciously
00:23:09.500uh musk and trump people more than broadly are like seemingly trying to the stay wise
00:23:16.480britain that they see it as like a center of opposition to them and um to be fair like that's
00:23:24.940where the steel dossier came from that's where a ton of the spy on trump and others came from
00:23:29.600at one point the british government was trying to was saying stuff like they wanted elon musk
00:23:35.760extradited for violating their censorship laws and whatnot so it's deeply personal to like
00:23:42.620rumping a lot of his people that like they
00:23:45.200load the british state and the british establishment but you also see this in
00:23:50.200canada where trump is now uh pouring gasoline on the fire of
00:23:55.440canada's internal divisions with alberta um his sanctions will probably
00:24:02.760canada's a ponzi scheme right now like built around
00:24:06.480the housing market and every every single policy in canada from its
00:24:10.140immigration policy to it allowing like tons and tons of fentanyl to be smuggled into the u.s
00:24:16.620all that is built around keeping the money laundering going to prop up the canadian housing
00:24:23.260market while you've entirely to prop up um asset prices within canada that's like the last part of
00:24:30.500the canadian economy that works and trump putting these tariffs on on canada and and all his economic
00:24:39.280stuff like really threatens to crash the canadian economy at which point like especially if alberta
00:24:45.760leaves like the rest of english canada will like accept annexation like dominoes because
00:24:51.040they don't want to be stuck in a canada that's a economically depressed and be increasingly
00:24:57.640dominated by quebec so what so my theory is that like your your analysis was was correct
00:25:08.680to uh my analysis as well this is a very flattering reading reading for me that it's like
00:25:16.340kind of an apology for me not predicting it correctly as well but uh the theory would be
00:25:23.080that because trump won and won so dominantly in 2024 like outperformed all his other election
00:25:29.600performances and one of the great largest victories in american history um that what that
00:25:36.160has done is shifted the world's fault lines from the middle of the U.S. to the Commonwealth and the
00:25:44.080EU more generally. What do you think? You gave me a lot of ducks to fire at. And so I'm going to
00:25:54.240pick a handful of targets and then let me know which ones you want me to talk about, because
00:25:59.040I can talk about everything, but there's like 10 conversation threads. So I'm going to pick a
00:26:03.960handful of them. And this is your show. So let me know which of the following topics after I say my
00:26:09.020thing you want me to cover. But I think that America still needs to have a civil war and to
00:26:15.440explain why the historic cycles I study, because the reason about five, four to five years ago,
00:26:21.600I predicted America would have a civil war in the future is partly I just looked outside and it's
00:26:27.360clear that things aren't right in the world around us. And secondly, there's a variety of
00:26:33.300historic models that predicted that America would have a civil war in, or a civil or an
00:26:39.900external war in the 2020s. You've got Goldstein's model from the 70s that said America would have
00:26:45.100a major war in 2020. You have the Strauss-Howe written in the 90s that said America would have
00:26:51.060an internal crisis on the scale of the revolution or the civil war or World War II in 2020. You had
00:26:58.600Peter Turchin's computer model in 2010, which said that America would have a civil war in the
00:27:04.3602020s. And there's a bunch other of these. So these are trends that go back decades. And
00:27:10.200what we are seeing now is the fundamental snapping of the order that stretches back to the French
00:27:16.420Revolution. And I don't want to get too deep into that, but our current ruling class are the
00:27:21.400descendants, and they're the fundamentally same ideology as the French Revolution. But in the
00:32:00.180And so with Trump saying that he's going to send American troops to Gaza, that's a perfect casus belli for the left because it fits their paradigm so closely because it's a it's a war of it's a it's ostensibly something they could very easily frame as a war of genocide.
00:32:18.820And on top of that, it's a conflict where white people are putting troops over brown people, where they could make a convincing argument that Israel is going to destroy Gaza's entire population.
00:32:33.380And that's a very easy casus belli. Secondarily, the NGO stuff is the thing the left is most emotionally worked up about.
00:32:46.940And I've been looking at all the leftist media for the last few months to watch this. And it's so hilarious that the thing they care the most about is their NGO money getting cut because they don't care about black people or gays or women nearly as much as their NGO money.
00:33:04.280And I could talk a lot about this. I've got buddies in politics who have been watching this very closely for years. But this is just the tip of the iceberg where the corruption goes so much deeper. And we're hitting a threshold where when the left's money gets pulled, they might need to start a war over that.
00:33:19.700And there's a lot of crazy stories I can get into here as a way to – because they are so dependent upon the federal bureaucracy using corruption for taxpayer money.
00:33:31.180And the showing of their innate corruption is likely going to be such a huge blow to their credibility that they would start a conflict now as a way to get around it.
00:33:44.120Did you see on Reddit, as an example, they have gotten the names of all the Doge employees, and they've written down all their names, and they're calling for their assassination.
00:33:58.140And on top of that, they have been doing – if you look at Reddit and a variety of other leftist things, they're openly calling for revolt over exactly the NGO Doge stuff.
00:34:11.520and i mean i could talk more about this but the leftist media this is the thing they're poking at
00:34:16.920okay okay yeah no i i'm not denying that they have the motivation in that like it's existential
00:34:26.340for them like um the doge and the possibility that like uh an elon melee style um purging of
00:34:35.700federal of the bureaucracies will just like start taking it over the entire entire west like is
00:34:43.400existential for them because basically we have this massive class of downwardsly mobile uh people
00:34:50.560who think they are elite or are like directly the children of elites who that's the only thing they
00:34:56.540can do in terms of employment like they have no other like real opportunities attached to them
00:35:02.780like they do but the the issue is these people also aren't confident like they had they never
00:35:12.100really worked with their hands in their lives like the vast majority have never camped camped once
00:35:18.980um so the model of a civil war that like people thought that could be close is um a scenario where
00:35:28.140let's say trump lost but it was slightly questionable wall but the bureaucracy and
00:35:34.460the establishment of dc went entirely for like the uniparty biden comma la etc and the
00:35:44.960the trump militia types all agreed that it was stolen from him or that it doesn't even matter
00:35:53.080if it's stolen because they're going to take all our liberties now anyway and they have to fight
00:35:57.520And that would have actually been, like, a very, like, fought conflict because the militia types, there's hundreds of thousands of them.
00:36:11.480They all have pickup trucks, which I don't think people quite appreciate.
00:36:15.480Just, like, the ownership of a pickup truck is, like, this massive logistical capacity, like, the equivalent of, like, regiments in previous wars.
00:36:25.620now like has transformed the modern battlefield in ways we still don't understand because there
00:36:30.460hasn't been a conflict large enough for but the consumer pickup truck like is the equivalent of
00:36:36.180like the stirrup being invented and we just haven't seen it play out yet but you had all
00:36:43.340this capacity amongst these like rural rural rednecks um hillbillies etc etc types that you
00:36:53.480just don't see in the modern left so in the 1960s you had this like massive youth glut that also
00:37:02.240like had all worked with their hands at various points like everyone had worked in a factory at
00:37:07.580some point in the 60s you know people teenagers still had jobs in the 60s so when you have the
00:37:14.740um the new left and the kind of revolts of the 60s and like the rise of the symbionese liberation
00:37:21.440army and all that stuff like those people could very easily switch to like making bombs and doing
00:37:28.220other stuff stuff like that you had this massive glut of um young angry people who
00:37:35.920were military capable in a way that i just don't see a population like that on the left
00:37:43.380um aside from like migrants who might riot over like um their benefits being cut but that's the
00:37:53.720that's the thing that like trump and elon and them have like much to the hatred of the
00:38:00.240migrant crowd like not really touched that aggressively compared to like going directly
00:38:06.080after the bureaucracy itself the thing though is that i know this demographic personally where i've
00:38:13.100met dozens of leftist ivy league kids for uh in my age demographic and i'm 23 i've met them for
00:38:20.160hiring social and dating purposes and these people are absurdly arrogant and it's just shocking and
00:38:27.300i can't believe these people exist where um i was hanging around harvard with my right-hand man
00:38:33.740and we were like partying and i and i was telling him about how arrogant and delusional they were
00:38:38.720And when he showed up to the party, he said, Rudyard, I didn't believe you, but it's worse than you said.
00:38:47.400And so the thing with this demographic of people is that they believe it'll work because they've been coddled for their entire lives.
00:38:55.040And I can't understate this where they don't know what war is.
00:39:00.300And when you look at the English Civil War or the French Revolution, you find that it was started by the monarchs or the weak ruling class thinking they would win because they underestimated how much the population hated them.
00:39:15.220And I'm reading a book on the history of Mexico that's excellent, Blood and Fire by Fehrenbach.
00:39:19.800And it's a similar thing where Mexico, with their revolution a century ago, it was their secular cycle where millions of people died.
00:39:27.220And it was started by the ruling government not realizing how impoverished the average Mexican was and how hated they were. So I could see them starting a conflict like this where I've heard I've heard leftists say that we'll win a war if we start one because all the young people are leftist.
00:39:43.420And they have this magical thinking about the revolution where they think the revolution's on their side.
00:39:48.440And you can see a lot of this stuff with the Columbia protests, with a lot of the stuff we're seeing right now with federal judges.
00:39:56.740It seems almost every day there's a federal judge or a local employee who refuses to follow Trump's orders.
00:40:06.260You're seeing Tesla getting attacked where, keep in mind, Marxism's a hell of a drug.
00:40:12.820And these people are so they're so delusional and arrogant where they'll start a war, but they're going to lose it pretty quickly.
00:40:19.500And it's comparable to the French Revolution, where once the monarch started it, he had no idea how weak he was compared to the general populace.
00:40:30.140That that makes more sense in your analysis.
00:40:32.780So you think the left will do something like a very stupid flash in a pan, but then once they've done that, all of a sudden the lid's kind of off and they won't win the conflict.
00:40:48.280But once that lid's off, all of a sudden you have stuff like some military officer decides that, no, he's sick of democracy, he wants to be Napoleon.
00:40:56.840or some, like, white nationalist militias decide,
00:41:01.560well, it's chaotic enough now we can, like, try to carve out our little kingdom.
00:41:08.240Like, all of a sudden it gives lots of other factions that aren't insane and dumb
00:41:17.300So the leftists flash a pan and then the cartels take the border states or something.
00:41:22.360so um i read this uh statistical analysis of the opinions of upper class leftists and it is one of
00:41:31.400the most black pilling things ever we're a very significant amount of upper class leftists we're
00:41:35.800looking at the top one percent of income left-wing politics they believe that we should illegalize
00:41:41.020cars that we should illegalize um that we should illegalize air conditioning a lot of modern
00:41:48.720industrial state and i know a lot of young leftists and they unironically believe stuff
00:41:53.060like the state should forcibly de-industrialize the economy or that um i've heard leftists say
00:42:01.240that trump wants to install a racial caste system where only white men can vote and it's just
00:42:08.100ridiculous stuff like that where this is where they're at mentally and it's crazy to look at
00:42:12.120tiktok in social media because the dissident left who would be the ones that push this where
00:42:16.920I could talk about this more, but there's a weird calculation going on between the DNC elite left and then the dissident left, where the dissident left stopped believing in the mainstream left due to Gaza.
00:42:28.400And then what happened is that they get their news off Instagram and TikTok, where did you – and there's just no fact-checking going on there.
00:42:35.400And did you hear about cute winter boots?
00:45:17.120ah god cute winter boots so um i i i'm not any great
00:45:28.560great warrior or anything i have never been to a war zone um war zone or done anything
00:45:37.660like that really um but one of the things i have done is winter camping and uh when i was a kid
00:45:47.040We did field exercises as a kid, going out into, you know, minus 20 stacking sandbags and doing stuff like that.
00:46:01.860And the thing to understand about any Winter Combat is basically any Winter Combat kit is like a 20-item, massive, massive amount of equipment, like just clothing and stuff.
00:46:19.680It consumes basically the entire closet of your house.
00:46:23.140It's a nightmare to store all this stuff during the year.
00:46:26.240but you need it because it gets down to minus 20 minus 30 and you have to stay out there in your
00:46:34.180position like um you don't get to a cut cut a corner and like say oh i'm cold now i want to go
00:46:42.000inside a building like if there's anything combat related related happening you have to stay out
00:46:49.820there in your position which means you might be in minus 20 minus 30 for 8 16 24 48 48 124 hours
00:47:03.560hours straight and you're just there and during the conditions and if it if it suddenly thaws
00:47:09.640and starts to rain and then immediately flash freezes again you have to stay out there during
00:47:15.480during all that and you have to have all that kit on you that you can like quick switch between the
00:47:22.520one and the other if your sops get wet you need more socks to switch into it it's a complete
00:47:27.700nightmare like it's a physical workout just to exist outside under these conditions like the
00:47:33.820changing of the clothing is itself like such a pain and a nightmare and miserable um i remember
00:47:41.940i remember stacking sandbags for this position on this like wind-swept hill at midnight and
00:47:50.500and like i take off my clothes because we're doing a delicate task
00:47:55.740fast to get some work done and so i go so we're doing it okay hold this here and i'm like
00:48:03.760actually i can't i lost feeling my fingers they're they're shaking shaking and the
00:54:29.720from the east coming out of the area north of the Caucasus,
00:54:36.240and then from the north coming through Belarus.
00:54:38.440And waging a war on a three front campaign is something that's innately that you should be able to easily win. Waging a three front war, I think we should be able to surround the enemy.
00:54:51.740And the other thing is that Ukraine has one of the best geographies for attackers where it's dead flat. And this is why Ukraine has been conquered so many times. And it's why Ukraine is one of the most bloody areas in world history.
00:55:06.420And the Russians supposedly had the second best military in the world when they started the war. They used to have an enormous tank corps. So my assumption was that Russia would win this war within a month. And I'm near certain that that was Putin's assumption as well. It was what a lot of people thought.
00:55:22.140And I was in disbelief when the Ukrainians held on, and Ukraine's a real tell because it devolved into World War I-style trench warfare, and that was something where we don't have a lot of proxies for what war means today.
00:55:36.680And you were correct as well, where you really called this accurately, where you said that the Gaza War would be a war that Israel wouldn't win easily, because I thought Israel could easily trounce Gaza over the matter of weeks.
00:55:50.320because Gaza is a quarter the size of the county I'm from in Pennsylvania, Chester County.
00:55:55.480And the idea that a war is fought over an area that small for so long is, it just seems crazy.
00:56:02.020But what it seems like now is that the military technology we're operating with
00:56:07.080gives the defense an enormous advantage, something that's comparable to the world of the 1600s
00:56:13.060or the World War I. And that's interesting. A few years ago, I actually made a video
00:56:18.960predicting that modern wars would be fought like the 1600s which was an era of very defensive
00:56:25.160warfare which is something i said that the wars of the future would be fought
00:56:29.660with a heavy bias towards defensive combat
00:56:32.340yeah so the interesting thing is um i'm not sure that like uh the western
00:56:45.080so many threads to pull on there but uh so there's been this theory for um
00:56:53.500going back really kicked off with the global war on terror that um there was a western way of war
00:57:02.540and an eastern way of war and that the west was defined by um stand and fight infantry tactics
00:57:09.540set these battles um real heavy logistical focus focuses like uh the analogy is that america's
00:57:19.640rome and and a lot of america america's strength and the strengths of european armies mimic what
00:57:27.820the romans did and this was contrasted with um the eastern way of war or the arabic way of war
00:57:36.940where the analogy that was drawn was between Barthian horse archers
00:57:42.400and lords of Arabia leading the Arab revolt in these hit-and-run raids
00:57:50.420or the Afghan and Taliban warlords in their complex networks of alliances
00:57:58.260uh uh forming these like kind of flash attacks that would that would not be decisive on their
00:58:07.020own but would exhaust an enemy and like slowly take over and the thing the problem with his
00:58:14.180analysis was that like in a lot of ways it ignored the fact that for most of european history um
00:58:20.920This Roman-American-style stand-and-fight infantry forces with a strong logistical backing was not how Western Europe fought at all.
00:58:36.000So, um, if you look at, like, the great migrations of the 5th century CE, uh, at 80, that, that, um, the, the Germanic barbarians practiced this very unique mode of warfare, uh, this migratory warfare, uh, with man and horse and wagon, where they'd load up the entire family, everything they could carry, all their weapons, their horses.
00:59:04.700loaded onto wagons and do these great marches to conquer new lands or like flee old lands that they
00:59:14.240had abandoned and the vandals wound up like conquering north africa this way they cross the
00:59:20.960pillars of hercules and the the goss conquer rome and you see this echo throughout history as well
01:01:11.880I recently read John Keegan's History of War, which was a very good book that I'd highly recommend you read. And John Keegan's probably the most important military historian of our time. And he subdivides the book into a series of different ways of waging war.
01:01:32.380So he's got a section on gunpowder. He's got a section on steel warfare, on using cavalry. And I don't think the Western way of war is real. I just don't think there's a consistent way Europeans have waged war independent from the rest of the world.
01:01:47.880I think Europeans have had multiple strategies. And for example, you could argue that Europeans have used ranged weapons the best of anyone in the world, where I have an idea of calling the Americans the nation of the longbow, because the exact kind of people who were the longbowmen in England, people who populated America, were the English longbow leading to artillery, leading to gunpowder.
01:02:10.240That's not upfront Roman warfare, but you have a bunch of other things where cavalry warfare was big in the Middle Ages, and there have been other periods where other cultures had very upfront warfare, where the Chinese, interestingly, their strategy is they just have huge armies.
01:02:26.160And if you read about recent Chinese, when I say recent 500 years ago, because China's an old country, when you look at Chinese warfare, they get these huge armies, which they don't drill, and they barely supply, and they just throw them at each other.
01:02:40.920So Chinese warfare is very direct, although the tactics, they use Sun Tzu's, the Chinese will smash men into you, but they'll be indirect when they decide to do it.
01:02:50.440And when I look at the world, I see there's a sub variety of different strategies that come and go over history where over the Western tradition, we've had five or six different important methods that Europeans and their diasporas have used.
01:03:06.840And then you can alternate them where, for example, the Mesopotamians, they used phalanx warfare, and the Indians would also just get masses of men and charge them at their opponents.
01:03:19.460And predicting the history of war is possibly the most difficult thing to do, because when you look consistently back over the industrial era's wars, you'll find people always get it wrong.
01:03:31.580in ironically on a pretty frequent basis if you just say the exact opposite of what the expert
01:03:37.820consensus is you'll get the right answer where world war ii they thought defensive war would be
01:03:44.560the future the reality was the opposite where offense had a huge advantage to the tank world
01:03:49.500war one they thought offensive warfare would have a huge advantage the reality was the opposite where
01:03:54.320the defense had an advantage going into these recent wars we thought that war would be done
01:03:58.820super quickly where it would all be push button with robots but the reality for the recent wars
01:04:04.360is they're slow slogs where infantry actually has become more important versus earlier wars
01:04:10.540and a great irony is that you'd be better served just predicting the opposite of whatever the
01:04:16.980academic consensus for the next war would be and i did a good job and possibly i was lucky
01:04:21.660and predicting that the the way of this future would be the 1600s era of war and
01:04:28.140what i'd say is that the most marked trend for the next generation of warfare there's two trends
01:04:38.080i i look at where i have two buddies who have a lot of contacts in the ukrainian military and
01:04:44.640government and the thing they consistently talk about is drone warfare change the calculation
01:04:50.200where drones gave the defense an enormous military advantage, where drones act as very effective
01:04:56.900anti-tank warfare, and tanks were the earlier thing used to smash the trenches. Another factor
01:05:03.080is that Russia and Ukraine have destroyed industrial bases, so they can't maintain tank
01:05:09.900core in the same way that the Americans could. And so we don't know how much that's a factor.
01:05:15.240So drone warfare is one. And the absence of young men is a second factor. And I see the Ukraine war as a real tragedy, because these were the countries that were aging the most in the world anywhere, anyway. And they killed off so many of their young men. Those were the men that could have kept their societies alive.
01:05:34.700And now we're seeing this, I would say, historically rich and beautiful European civilization just getting royally fucked over.
01:05:44.740And I hope they don't get conquered by the Muslims or something in the next 50 years.
01:05:48.680Also, heads up, I'm going to leave in the next 15 minutes or 15 minutes from now.
01:06:08.280so they the thing that i see in in ukraine that um really stands out to me is so the escalation of
01:06:22.540the west pushing into ukraine ukraine was like a nato kind of russia leaning leaning state up
01:06:28.800until 2014 and russia had forced out a bunch of american oligarchs and like financially attached
01:06:37.260people um look up the magnitsky act and the magnitsky affair for a tie into it if you're
01:06:43.760one of the people if you're someone who's like very interested in um certain ethnicities uh
01:06:50.620in their involvement in in eastern europe you will not be disappointed looking into that affair
01:06:56.880but uh the what you see is vladimir putin around like 2008 2009 forced out a lot of the oligarchs
01:07:07.660who had taken over russia in the 90s and early 2000s that were largely aligned with the u.s
01:07:14.020and western europe and in retaliation for that they put all these sanction on russia
01:07:19.860But also all the characters who has like been involved in sanctioning Russia around like 2012, all of them were diehard funding the Maidan revolution.
01:07:32.660Uh, so, uh, John McCain was actually in Kiev as the Maidan revolution was having, taking cell phone photos of the protests, like, from his, from his, from his suite at his hotel, uh, as, as figures around him drank, drank champagne.
01:07:53.600This is a real photo. You can look it up. But the American push and the European push to take Ukraine away from Russia and really turn a blind eye to really horrible crimes that were being committed against ethnic Russians in the wake of the Maidan revolution is kind of inherently mysterious.
01:08:23.600in that um even if it was russia forcing out these oligarchs and stuff and even if you attribute them
01:08:32.240all this power well what's the motivation for all the bureaucrats in europe to push this what's the
01:08:36.660motivation for all the bureaucrats in the u.s to push this and the wider force that i see really
01:08:42.840driving the break with russia and then subsequently like the intractability and the negotiations that
01:08:48.920led to the war is is that um the west and the eu specifically cannot abide an alternative model
01:08:59.760uh so there's this organization you may have heard of the oecd and i remember researching this
01:09:08.340way back in the day and being like kind of horrified at it but the main thing the the oecd the
01:09:15.220organization of economic cooperation development does is it goes between all the governments
01:09:21.400of the world basically and tells them which policies they're not allowed to have like which
01:09:27.760economic policies which regulatory policies like it goes between and makes sure that none of them
01:09:33.380can implement any policy that would be more competitive or more free market or like more
01:09:39.200amenable to their population so uh famously the oecd uh tried to impose a minimum income
01:09:46.700tax that no nation on earth could not have an income tax and it tried to impose all these
01:09:52.480regulatory requirements around banking so like most of the stuff that got rid of things like
01:09:57.980swiss bank accounts or other like privacy banks uh was done by the oecd and this is kind of the
01:10:05.900backbone of of the eu and like the western bureaucratic state is because they want to
01:10:14.120regulate their population so heavily they have to make sure that there is not another country out
01:10:19.920there that's free in which um all their all the capital can fly to all the opportunities can fly
01:10:28.080to that you can't just open up a private bank account elsewhere you can't start a company
01:10:33.680elsewhere that doesn't have to pay pay taxes back you can't um you can't evade regulations this way
01:10:40.000that way it has to be a totalizing uh global model of what of what economic activity social activity
01:10:50.160has to be and they're very very open about this that they will not allow what they call a race
01:10:56.240to the bottom or what or what an economist would call normal market competition and so what russia
01:11:04.680was doing from like 2007 onwards was challenging the european film model and the american model
01:11:14.400in many respects in that um it was not passing passing like dei type stuff it was giving its
01:11:23.940populace what the majority of the population wanted which was um maintaining the criminalization
01:11:30.220of homosexuality this is what the american population voted for and all their referendums
01:11:36.000on it from um from california to other other states that they wanted same-sex marriage
01:11:43.800abandons stuff they or the europeans did not want definitely did not want mass migration
01:11:53.340Brexit happened around 2014, right before the Maidan Revolution, that Russia and Eastern Europe
01:12:01.720in general were presenting all these policies that Europe could not abide, the U.S. Democratic
01:12:12.080Party could not abide, and that they could not allow to exist in contrast to their own models
01:12:18.940that were extracting value from other people it's one thing to for a european country if massive
01:12:26.380migrant massive waves of migrants arrive on their shore and it happens to every country in europe
01:12:31.380and there's nothing to be done about it it's quite another thing if one country has waves of migrants
01:12:37.560landing on their shore shores and is having like like pride parades that like offend the native
01:12:43.720population and another country just says no and their government doesn't allow it and this is
01:12:50.060the big thing that you see that really animates the people who are upset at russia is they think
01:12:56.980it's a a homophobic nazi state state where uh progress isn't happening or people are allowed
01:13:06.840to escape their vision of progress so it sounds deranged but you're completely right that's the
01:13:15.340horrible thing where i've looked into them i've looked into this myself and american foreign
01:13:21.780policy is um motivated mostly off spreading homosexuality and that sounds like a joke
01:13:29.140but no look at usa dropping 20 million for like homosexuality in uganda 10 million for
01:13:35.580homosexuality in vietnam and uh it's just stupid and there's lots of stuff where i just facepalm
01:13:42.960where the american the american leftist foreign policy administration does ridiculous stuff where
01:13:50.300as an example trump built up a strong alliance against iran between uh the turks the saudis
01:13:59.760and the Egyptians and the Gulf Arab states alongside Israel. Biden destroyed all of those
01:14:07.740relationships. He alienated the Turks, the Saudis, and a lot of other Gulf factions.
01:14:13.780And it was due to the Kurds and due to the Saudis' treatment of women. And the irony is that
01:14:22.040feminism is relatively big in Saudi Arabia now. Saudi Arabia is not what people think it is
01:14:26.840anymore. And you're, you're correct that this is pushing leftist social views, stuff like
01:14:32.440homosexuality or multiculturalism. And, um, and you look at how the European elite pushes for
01:14:40.240immigration because when compelled Europeans consistently as a demographic, three quarters
01:14:45.720of them don't want more immigrants. And then the European uniparty demands there be more immigrants.
01:14:50.700And so the managerial class has become this psychotic suicidal priest class. And what I fundamentally see here is so unlike our ruling class, I do not believe in sucking dick, at least for me.
01:15:06.100And thus, I will state my honest opinions about each of these, where Ukraine, I support
01:15:14.840America's, I support hurting America's enemies, and thus, I see Ukraine as a useful vector
01:15:20.960to weaken Russia, but at the same time, Ukraine is a demonstratively corrupt society.
01:15:27.180Zelensky's made himself something like dictator, and in Ukraine, the oligarchs had a stranglehold
01:15:32.240on power unlike russia i see russia as a corrupt regime largely trying to spread its power
01:15:37.780just as regimes always do and uh another thing is the boomer elite they have buttons in their
01:15:45.320mind for the soviets and so they can they can rally their support about around the soviets
01:15:52.700really easily and ironically i think a lot of them don't go after china because china's not
01:15:59.640white they need to have a white enemy and it's a ridiculous situation where when pulled at the
01:16:07.620start of this war two-thirds of cnn viewers wanted to start a war with you with russia
01:16:15.800which is just ridiculous where at the start of this war two-thirds of of of american viewers
01:16:22.240of cnn literally wanted america to declare war on russia to protect ukraine i think in a lot of
01:16:27.400The left is agitating their people about Ukraine to see how bloodthirsty they can get their own followers to be, possibly for an internal conflict where it's hilarious, where Hassan Piker, within a two minute period, he went talking about how bad the military industrial complex was to shilling for our military industrial industrial complex supporting Ukraine.
01:16:50.840And so before I get going, do you have any final questions?
01:16:54.000um no that's perfect um do you have any follow thoughts i do want to have you back to get into
01:17:04.800um israel and kind of the wider geopolitical game that's playing out between uh in the middle east
01:17:12.420and especially the the interesting relationship between trump and netanyahu which i don't think
01:17:20.240has been talked about much well thank you so much for having me and hit me up again peace
01:17:26.820100 man thank you so much for coming on and you listeners out there stay glorious