Bannon's War Room - Episode 2200： Where Are We As We Head Into November

00:00:00.000 Yesterday, I wanted to tell him, I didn't get to say it, there are more buyers than sellers.

00:00:05.140 Okay, all right, now that we got that out of the way, you do have the VIX below 30 today for the

00:00:10.220 first time in more than a week. Look, I felt that yesterday was the most disbelief, disbelief rally

00:00:17.940 in the history of, I mean, I don't know, I mean, everyone I talked to said, look, it's this one

00:00:23.220 off, it's over. Now, the experience is that if this market does not collapse by 11 o'clock,

00:00:28.320 this is a brand new kind of recipe for a rally. With less than 40 days to go before the midterm

00:00:34.880 elections, a new survey is painting a dangerous picture of the future of American democracy.

00:00:41.620 A recent poll conducted by Yahoo News and YouGov shows less than half of Americans, 46 percent,

00:00:49.240 believe candidates should commit in advance to accepting the results of this year's midterm

00:00:55.240 elections. 55 percent say that once all the votes are counted, the candidate with the fewer votes

00:01:01.640 should concede. Among Trump voters, that number falls to 44 percent. 38 percent of Trump voters

00:01:08.900 say candidates with fewer votes should continue to challenge the results. Let's bring in right now

00:01:14.800 political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz. Hey, Frank, good to see you again. What's your

00:01:18.960 takeaway from these numbers? Scary as hell. I'm here at the Conservative Party Conference. I'm

00:01:25.040 trying to say to them, be very careful what you wish for. Be very careful what kind of campaign you

00:01:30.300 hold, because you could end up like the U.S. When you lose the faith and trust in elections itself,

00:01:37.220 you've lost your democracy. And we are so close to the edge. I'm sitting in this room right now with

00:01:42.860 a group of students from Radley College. And I have to teach them. I have to explain to them

00:01:47.440 that this isn't the way democracy is supposed to work, that you have winners and losers. You accept

00:01:52.720 the loss and then you move on. We are so poisoned. We are so toxic. And I don't want what's going on

00:01:58.300 in the U.S. to happen here in the U.K. That would be a real tragedy. So now, Jonathan, is will the

00:02:04.520 abortion decision, will Republican radicalism, will the aftermath of January 6th, will all of that

00:02:12.800 taken together, will Uvalde, will these 10-year-old girls having to flee out of state from male

00:02:20.740 legislators who want to force them to have their rapist babies, will all of that combined be enough 1.00

00:02:27.580 to, will bend history? And right now, I must say, looking at the numbers, doesn't look like it.

00:02:34.520 Yeah, it speaks to how powerful those historical forces are, that all those things you just

00:02:38.520 mentioned, including the Roe v. Wade decision, which has become so animating for so many voters,

00:02:42.920 particularly women, new female voters, and yet the Democrats still may fall short. I mean,

00:02:49.180 the odds were against them from Election Day 2020, when the Democratic margin in the House was going to

00:02:54.540 be so slim, it became next to impossible. Leading Democrats concede for them to be able to keep that

00:03:01.820 party. And there is still a chance. We don't want it until a month ago. Things can change. It's not

00:03:06.100 written in stone. But the odds are against them to be able to keep the House, even if they just lose

00:03:11.140 it by a couple of seats. And in fact, it is because, Joe, of all those things you just mentioned,

00:03:15.400 that's why the Senate's still in play. Because historical tradition, you know, 50-50, that would

00:03:19.760 seem to likely break for Republicans as well. But now Democrats feel like they've got a fighting

00:03:23.960 chance. It's going to come down to a handful of races. This thing is probably going to end up 50-50 or

00:03:28.240 51-49 one way or the other. The Senate's that close. It's because of all those things you just

00:03:33.420 mentioned.

00:03:36.260 Wow. Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K. Bannon. Look, all we need to do is, like, put those people

00:03:43.740 on in campaign ads for Republicans around this country, and it'll be a friggin' landslide. I mean,

00:03:50.960 what a set of villains you've got there. It sounded like a concession speech over there at MSNBC,

00:03:58.140 they're basically saying it's over. They're clinging to this Roe v. Wade read somehow that's

00:04:05.180 going to rescue these elections. I think not. We're going to have a great show today. We're

00:04:12.140 going to spend much of this hour with the great pollster, Richard Bares, who I'm going to bring

00:04:18.500 on shortly. And then in the 11th block, we're going to go out to Nevada. We're going to start

00:04:25.520 there and look at how that Hispanic wave to the Republican Party is playing out boots on the

00:04:33.900 ground. Just a quick market commentary. Yesterday and again today, we've had a big rally in the

00:04:41.860 stock market. We're getting, again, the buy the dip language, this, that, and the other thing.

00:04:46.100 There's optimism, this, that, and the other thing. Here's the thing. There's money that goes into stocks

00:04:54.320 and there's money that goes into bonds. And there's always this movement between what they call asset

00:05:00.280 allocation. Okay. So sometimes if you get a movement up in the stock market, it results purely

00:05:08.520 from a shift from a shift from the bond to the stock market. Essentially, that's what we witnessed

00:05:14.960 yesterday. And it was because of bad economic news. One of my favorite indicators, the Institute of

00:05:22.960 Supply Chain Manufacturing Index was signaling strong recession. Okay. Now the logic of Wall Street is,

00:05:32.820 well, that means the Fed won't raise interest rates as quickly as they said they were going to

00:05:38.340 do. So that's a relief in the bond market from their plunge in bond prices. Therefore, let's move

00:05:47.820 some money into stocks. Simple as that. We'll see how this long, this mini dead cat rally runs. But no one

00:05:57.440 should take any kind of comfort in a stock market rally at this point contingent on expectations that

00:06:05.620 the economy is going to be worse. Now, in order to introduce Richard Barris, I want to just say

00:06:13.260 the book I have, Taking Back Trump's America, the whole mission of that book is to put Donald Trump back

00:06:23.340 in the White House. But in my judgment, the only way we do that is first taking back the House of

00:06:30.640 Representatives from Nancy Pelosi. And the reason, as I argue, in Taking Back Trump's America is fairly

00:06:36.180 simple. Congress has weaponized the investigatory powers of Congress in an unconstitutional way,

00:06:43.720 designed to do what they should not be doing, which is to create a phony, hoax, criminal prosecution

00:06:51.080 of Trump for the sole purpose of either throwing enough mud at him to make sure he doesn't win,

00:06:58.000 or their dream scenario is to prevent him from running to begin with because they put him in jail.

00:07:05.660 That's what they are doing. And if you allow the wound of Nancy Pelosi to fester and stay open

00:07:13.180 by having her retain the Speaker's gavel in 2024, all hope is lost. Now, what we

00:07:20.880 preach here in the war room is the canon of Steve Bannon. It's action, action, action. It's not just

00:07:27.720 that you have to go to the polls on game day in November and cast your vote. That's just part of

00:07:36.160 it. What I'm asking you to do between now and then is find one or more candidates out there around the

00:07:45.780 country who are in tight races that we absolutely need to win to take the House and the Senate. You

00:07:54.420 know, we've talked a lot about Blake Masters in Arizona. That guy, Mitch McConnell, has abandoned

00:07:59.820 him. He can win that race, help Blake out. Those are the kinds of things we do. So with that in mind,

00:08:07.400 what we're going to do today, it should be fun, is take you kind of on a tour of much of the United

00:08:14.880 States. Go state by state. Look at some of the congressional races there and see where you might

00:08:22.160 come into the picture in terms of helping candidates. Without further ado, then, let's bring in Richard

00:08:29.960 Barris. Richard, my brother, how are you today, sir? Living the dream as always, Peter. How you doing, brother?

00:08:36.340 Yeah. I'm just hanging in there. So what I thought we'd do before we start the state by state exercises

00:08:42.780 is kind of look at kind of the generic handicapping of where we're at on the House and Senate, if you

00:08:51.040 want. So what you got for us, and I know you want to do another poll on that in October. So just wax

00:09:00.660 eloquent a little bit. Where are we at? Where's the chessboard at?

00:09:03.820 And people can help us do that if they go to Big Data Poll, Peter, and just scroll to the bottom.

00:09:09.640 They can learn about the public polling project. That's where we do it. I always trust my own

00:09:13.200 numbers more than I trust anybody else. But without a doubt, whether you're looking at the Monmouth poll,

00:09:19.420 which was a very big shift over the last month and a half to Republicans, whether you're looking at

00:09:26.200 YouGov, which for The Economist, which actually did a likely voter, that was a five-point shift among

00:09:31.960 registered voters alone. And Republicans had a lead there on the generic ballot. Now, that's

00:09:37.760 significant because that basically never happens, Peter. I mean, it's with the methodology from

00:09:42.260 The Economist, YouGov, it's pretty much almost impossible for Republicans to lead a popular vote

00:09:48.680 poll because their waiting is so ridiculously unrealistic.

00:09:52.180 But, you know, we made a lot of hay last week about the ABC News poll, and the talk was whether

00:09:57.780 or not that shift was going to be prevalent in other polls as well. And I think, without a doubt,

00:10:03.640 you can't argue that ABC may have picked up on something, you know. So there is a move after

00:10:10.120 we came out of the summer and post-Labor Day to Republicans.

00:10:12.560 I think it's fair to say that Biden and the Democrats got that bump from that flurry of

00:10:23.060 bills that got passed. It looks like Biden's approval rating got up. But I think, would it

00:10:30.100 not be true that the reality, the stark reality of the economy and the collapse of the financial

00:10:35.400 markets is settling in? And this is going to be an economy stupid election. Is that where we're at?

00:10:40.660 Yeah, that's what, you know, I really grabbed onto that with Monmouth yesterday. And it's not that

00:10:46.420 I think they're a fantastic poll. You know, the truth is they're really not. But a trend is a trend

00:10:52.220 no matter any way you slice it. And, you know, their generic ballot is a little bit weird. I've shown

00:10:57.560 people this with the public polling project. If you ask the generic ballot, Peter, who do you prefer

00:11:02.540 to control Congress? It's different than if you ask them, who do you intend to vote for? Which is,

00:11:07.720 when I was coming up, that's a traditional generic ballot. And that's the way we word it.

00:11:11.980 I showed people in one of the first public polling projects we did with the generic ballot,

00:11:15.920 look, we can ask this question two different ways, and you're going to get two different answers.

00:11:20.340 Which, you know, they're each useful in their own way. But what they found,

00:11:24.700 which is what I have been clamming about for weeks and weeks now, polling is always spotty in

00:11:31.000 the summer. Maybe Biden's approval bounced up a little bit. We had them tick up two points

00:11:35.960 over the course of three months over the summer. That's it. So other people now, you know, ABC's

00:11:41.440 back down to 38, 39. The Monmouth Poll's back down to 40. They came up with this, and this is what

00:11:49.120 matters. Abortion rights is not outweighing people's economic concerns when it comes to who they intend

00:11:57.060 to vote for. So if they're holding back and they're not telling the pollster, you know, I don't know,

00:12:02.100 and I'm not sure yet, they're going to vote Republican. Or not vote at all. And that's

00:12:08.200 the Republican's job is to get those people out. But, you know, we're polling Arizona right now.

00:12:14.340 It's the same we've seen in every state, Peter. These people disapprove of Biden. Overwhelming.

00:12:19.120 Got it. Let's do this. We got about a minute and a half to the break here. Let's see if we can fit

00:12:24.800 Alaska in first, and then we'll come back after the break and start with Arizona. So, you know,

00:12:30.580 obviously, the Sarah Palin-Mary Peltrola race is interesting. But what's boots on the ground in

00:12:39.540 Alaska? What are you reading on the state and maybe that race?

00:12:45.700 You know, it really is still a toss-up because of the bitter blood. It should not be. Everyone give

00:12:51.000 Lisa Murkowski and her rhino team a hand. They threw Alaska to the Democrats in order to save 1.00

00:12:57.420 Lisa Murkowski's own skin. She sacrificed the entire state and their energy economy because in the mid to 1.00

00:13:04.860 long term, Peter, this is going to become a bigger problem for Republicans. She did it because she 0.99

00:13:09.720 knew she could not survive a traditional Republican primary. So her and her people work behind the scenes

00:13:15.880 to get ranked choice voting. I still do think come November, you know, you probably have to give

00:13:20.880 Palin a little edge because they're going to be more Republican votes, but you beg it, you know,

00:13:25.300 just they don't get along, you know, and they're telling people not to vote for Palin. So if you have

00:13:31.140 more moderate Republicans who go out and cast their first vote, right, and nobody gets to 50,

00:13:36.720 they wind up putting Paul Tola, Mayor Paul Tola as their second choice, which is what happened in

00:13:42.840 that special. Then that's a problem. That's problematic. That being said, there will be more voters in

00:13:48.160 November than there were in that special. And that's the X factor for Mary Paul Tola.

00:13:53.240 I was thinking there'd be like a backlash when, when she lost, when Palin lost in that special

00:13:59.680 that would really energize the, uh, Alaskan Republicans. You're not seeing that or who knows?

00:14:05.900 You know, I, it's a tough, it's a tough state to poll. I wouldn't, unless I pulled it myself,

00:14:10.460 I wouldn't believe anything that I've seen from people. Alaska is, uh, one of, it's probably the most

00:14:15.920 difficult state to poll. It probably is. And then you add ranked choice voting to that. And it's

00:14:20.780 like, guys, take it with a grain of salt. I don't care who does it. I don't care if it's Fabrizio or

00:14:25.780 some, you know, uh, left-wing news outlet. It's a difficult state. You're not reaching those rural

00:14:31.780 areas. Not happening. All right, brother. Uh, we're kind of, okay, be right back with Richard Barris and

00:14:37.920 we're going to go to the great state, uh, of Arizona. I am Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K.

00:14:44.000 Bannon, uh, briefly today.

00:14:54.740 You know, it's never good when your nation's supposed authority on economic policy completely

00:15:06.000 misses the flashing red lights of impending inflation. Now, treasury secretary Janet Yellen

00:15:12.200 has finally admitted, quote, there's been an unanticipated and large shocks to the economy

00:15:17.420 that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that affected our economy badly

00:15:22.900 that I didn't at the time fully understand. End quote. You know who understands the real threat of

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00:16:23.560 Put Peter Navarro in leg irons for simply doing his constitutional duty. Now they want to put

00:16:30.120 Peter in prison for standing up for Donald Trump. Please go to Amazon right now and order Taking

00:16:35.920 Back Trump's America to help fund Peter's legal defense. Taking Back Trump's America provides a

00:16:41.720 critical MAGA blueprint to put Trump back in the White House in 2024. Buy Taking Back Trump's America

00:16:48.140 on Amazon today. If they can put Peter Navarro in prison, they can come for all of us.

00:16:55.460 Yeah, true that. Coming for all of us unless we take back Trump's America. Okay, we are having

00:17:02.400 a tour of the United States today apropos of Taking Back Trump's America. The mission

00:17:08.480 for everybody in the posse is to win back the House of Representatives and get Pelosi the hell out of

00:17:15.600 there peacefully at the ballot box. And so we're talking to the great Richard Barris where we have

00:17:22.620 begun our tour around the country. So Richard, let's go right to Arizona. I've got three races

00:17:31.760 congressionally that I'm looking at. It's David Schweiker versus Jevin Hodge, Eli Crane versus Tom

00:17:38.960 Halloran and Juan Siscomani versus Kirsten Engel. That's the one most interesting to me to see

00:17:45.980 whether that's in reach. But let's give us an overview of where Arizona is with Cary Lake,

00:17:54.100 Blake Masters and Fincham and then maybe we can get to these Congress races.

00:17:58.760 Yeah, some of these I've pulled actually, Peter, which is great on the whole list actually, but you

00:18:03.320 know, getting to Arizona and we're pulling it now. People should keep an eye out with CDM.press tomorrow.

00:18:08.160 The poll will be, will be out likely tomorrow. But I got to tell you, O'Halloran is done. I mean,

00:18:15.340 I don't know how he survives. I would add to that given what we're seeing generically in Arizona.

00:18:21.480 He's an incumbent, by the way.

00:18:23.500 He is.

00:18:24.940 He's an incumbent Democrat.

00:18:27.780 Yeah.

00:18:28.220 Go ahead.

00:18:29.400 But he was redistricted into a lot of red vote, you know, to the North. And that's problematic for him.

00:18:35.240 It's almost backward of what happened to David Schweikert. That being said, again, because of

00:18:40.540 how the Republican ticket at the state level is performing, without giving away too much here,

00:18:47.360 I do think that Schweikert, you know, that leans Republican rating we're seeing on all the

00:18:52.100 forecasters is understating Schweikert's support.

00:18:56.220 But, you know, so O'Halloran, I think he needs a miracle at this point to survive.

00:19:01.840 I think he needs, you know, the Holy Mother to intervene on behalf of him.

00:19:05.620 And I would actually add Arizona 4 to this if it ends up being a real wipeout where you

00:19:11.600 have Cooper going against Scanton.

00:19:14.100 He just hasn't been able to raise much money.

00:19:15.840 But, you know, there's, you know, Arizona.

00:19:19.160 Well, stay with me on that now.

00:19:21.120 Tell me about that race.

00:19:23.260 It's Arizona 4, is that what you said?

00:19:26.440 It is, yes.

00:19:27.260 And what are the full names of these guys?

00:19:30.220 And who's the Republican?

00:19:31.500 Who's the Democrat?

00:19:32.440 Who's the incumbent?

00:19:34.020 Yeah, the incumbent is a Democrat.

00:19:36.240 You know, because, again, we have redistricting going along.

00:19:39.540 That is Scanton.

00:19:41.380 Okay, you have Kelly Cooper's the Republican.

00:19:43.100 And then you have Greg's, oh, Scanton, Stanton, Stanton, with two T's, sorry.

00:19:47.460 And then you have Greg Stanton, who is the incumbent Democrat.

00:19:50.820 You know, which I guess I would put that race as, you know, toss up to leans D because 0.84

00:19:56.340 I wouldn't even, I wouldn't even normally say toss up if I didn't pull it myself.

00:20:00.860 But because I did, I'm looking at the entirety of the state and, you know, the mood and the

00:20:06.000 direction that I think the state's going to go.

00:20:09.020 So, and, you know, if he would hold on, it wouldn't shock me, but everybody else would

00:20:13.920 be gone.

00:20:14.700 Who's the, who's the Republican?

00:20:16.220 What's his name?

00:20:17.420 His name is Cooper.

00:20:19.260 Yeah.

00:20:19.780 Kelly Cooper.

00:20:21.280 Yeah.

00:20:21.820 Kelly, Kelly.

00:20:23.580 Yeah.

00:20:24.060 And he was a small businessman who ran because of COVID's lockdown, hurting his small businesses.

00:20:30.400 You know, months ago, I actually had him on Inside the Numbers and I asked him why he ran

00:20:35.760 and because he's a small business owner and to let people go, for those who have ever,

00:20:40.200 you know, hired or employed anybody before, when the government forces you to shut your

00:20:44.480 business down and you have to let people go that rely on you for a paycheck, it's painful.

00:20:49.180 And that's what happened to him.

00:20:50.220 And his daughter really looked at him and said, Daddy, you're going to let this happen?

00:20:53.440 You know?

00:20:53.800 And he was like, nope.

00:20:54.880 So he's really, you know, he's really likable and he won in, I would say, an upset.

00:21:00.300 He is certainly more Trumpy than the establishment candidate that they, that Kevin McCarthy backed

00:21:07.400 and she lost, you know, the local, I would say the, the local McCain wing that had been

00:21:14.460 trying to hold on in Arizona preferred her.

00:21:16.840 They didn't get her.

00:21:17.980 It was close, but he, he edged her out and you know, he's been, he's been running ever

00:21:22.940 since in a nice way, you know, he, he would carry for it.

00:21:27.860 All right.

00:21:28.380 Let's, let's keep moving here.

00:21:30.720 There's the Juan Siscomani, the Republican on your radar.

00:21:36.980 Cause he's, he's a Latino person, Kirsten England and AZ six. 0.97

00:21:41.740 It leans.

00:21:42.840 Yeah.

00:21:44.800 Yeah.

00:21:45.420 It's a, it's a, I would say it's the district itself is favorable to Republicans.

00:21:49.340 So yeah.

00:21:50.920 Yeah.

00:21:51.400 I mean, again, with the exception of, you know, there are two very democratic seats in

00:21:57.020 Arizona and then you have Arizona four, which is, um, you know, I would say, uh, leans Democrat

00:22:03.040 for sure.

00:22:03.840 You know, and it's got a, there's a built in advantage there, but in a bad year for Democrats,

00:22:08.560 Peter, they're going to have problems just about in four, six is, you know, a real crapshoot

00:22:14.360 and O'Halloran is banking on being in two is banking on being an incumbent, but I'm telling

00:22:19.160 you, the polling looks not happening.

00:22:22.040 All right.

00:22:22.340 Let's go to Florida.

00:22:23.060 It's just good luck.

00:22:24.940 Let's go to Florida.

00:22:25.940 I want to zip through these things fairly quickly.

00:22:29.540 Florida seven, Corey Mills versus Karen Green.

00:22:35.060 Um, Trump did not endorse in this race.

00:22:38.340 I'm not sure why.

00:22:39.620 Um, but how's, uh, how's Florida, I mean, Florida is a big red wave at this point, but

00:22:46.180 are you, is that race on your radar screen?

00:22:48.840 So what's that?

00:22:50.080 How's that going to go to Corey Mills?

00:22:52.220 It is very likely Corey Mills going to be the next, uh, representative from seven.

00:22:57.080 The other is another interesting race, which is in, uh, 13, uh, Luna, Anna Luna, who I told

00:23:03.360 the Republican party in 2020, you know, they always, you know, ask, uh, I said this, this

00:23:08.020 woman can beat Charlie Chris. 1.00

00:23:09.200 She can beat him. 0.96

00:23:10.100 Uh, and she came that close and with no support, with no support because why Republican leadership 0.64

00:23:17.400 is always stupid and they believe, uh, the, uh, you know, the media polling and their own

00:23:22.840 and, and, and truth be told, their own pollsters give them bad data.

00:23:26.160 That's just the truth.

00:23:27.140 Um, you know, so Texas 15, Florida 13, these are all districts Republicans probably should

00:23:33.680 have represented already by now.

00:23:36.060 Um, but, uh, they, they, they weren't aggressive enough, you know, and they, they did what, uh,

00:23:40.760 Mitch McConnell is very good at doing, which is like, you know, pulling the fire alarm.

00:23:44.640 I, I always, I always make this analogy, but it's true, you know, believing that the house

00:23:48.980 is on fire, pulling the fire alarm.

00:23:51.200 And instead of being a leader, he tramples over the bodies of small children while he

00:23:55.240 runs out of the burning building himself to save himself, you know?

00:23:59.020 So I mean, that's what I just, I just jumped quickly ahead to, uh, Texas 15.

00:24:03.940 What we're trying to do here, Richard, for the, for the posse is to identify a small number

00:24:10.520 of races here today that they can go to their candidates' websites and help them in a toss

00:24:15.740 up.

00:24:16.080 So there's Anna Luna one fascinates me, but you said Monica LaCruz, that's the Republican 1.00

00:24:21.600 in Texas 15 versus Michelle Vallejo, who is an incumbent.

00:24:26.660 You think we could grab that one, right?

00:24:29.860 I do.

00:24:30.680 I think it should have fell in 2020.

00:24:32.480 Uh, now it's been redistricted and it actually is redistricted slightly in favor of, uh, Republicans

00:24:37.820 more given what we're seeing in the, the, the shift in the Hispanic vote, you know, Peter,

00:24:42.640 why these races are important.

00:24:43.900 And I would add 34 to that only, uh, it is going to be hot harder for Myra Flores to hold 1.00

00:24:50.380 on.

00:24:50.640 I do think she can.

00:24:52.460 And that's because I, I just think that at this point there are, I, you know, I'm looking

00:24:57.000 at the Telemundo poll, which always understates Republican support.

00:25:00.380 And even they are showing that it's roughly in line with 2020, you know, and I know that you

00:25:06.440 add the likely voter model to that.

00:25:08.260 And Republicans are going to benefit even more than that poll suggests from a shift in

00:25:13.780 Hispanic voting.

00:25:14.900 Uh, and those, if you're going to make it happen, you're going to make a play for it.

00:25:18.280 It has to be there.

00:25:19.160 Let's do, let's do one more before the break and then we'll come back and keep going.

00:25:23.660 But the one that's fascinated me, um, is in Iowa.

00:25:28.160 It's Iowa three, Zach Nunn versus Sidney Axney, who's the Democrat incumbent.

00:25:34.580 And I've been urging us to axe the axe.

00:25:37.260 Is that one on your radar screen?

00:25:39.480 I think, I think she's getting the axe, uh, you know, in good Republican years, Republicans

00:25:44.740 could take every single district in the state of Iowa.

00:25:47.720 That's just where that state is at this point.

00:25:50.400 And, um, yeah, there's a lot of economics, uh, that go into this, you know, for people,

00:25:55.880 you know, the issues you talk about all the time, you were just did in the cold open there

00:25:59.820 when we were talking about markets and asset allocation, right?

00:26:03.040 When you, this hurts the Midwest farmer badly.

00:26:07.140 Um, you know, and the, the idea of free trade and all the money going to Ukraine, this ticks

00:26:12.940 people off in this area of the country because, you know, they're struggling, they're hurting.

00:26:17.700 Uh, they don't get access to those foreign markets anyway. 0.75

00:26:20.720 It's like just basically writing a blank check to people while your own farmers struggle.

00:26:24.460 Uh, you know, and it's more than that.

00:26:26.220 Those people, the people in Iowa three rely on, uh, people in Iowa two.

00:26:30.380 Right.

00:26:30.660 So, uh, you know, I just see, I, I, I don't, I don't see Democrats holding onto this.

00:26:35.700 I just don't.

00:26:36.060 Let's try it in 2020.

00:26:37.080 Let's try one more, one more before the break, one more before the break, Kansas three, Amanda

00:26:43.600 Atkins, uh, the Republican versus Sharice Davids, the incumbent.

00:26:49.300 That's another chance to, to get a net gain.

00:26:52.640 Are you, is that one on your radar screen?

00:26:55.300 Yeah, it is, but I would say that that is, that really is a pure toss up in a year like

00:27:01.240 this.

00:27:01.840 Uh, I really do, uh, think that's the case.

00:27:04.540 There are, people have to understand.

00:27:06.300 Yes.

00:27:06.580 Kansas is Ruby red.

00:27:07.800 You have States like Nebraska that are Ruby red, but they have this very deep rooted, uh,

00:27:13.460 history of progressive populism that kind of mixes in, uh, you know, so it's never just

00:27:20.100 a shoe in is my point.

00:27:21.220 Now, if it's a Republican plus three year, that seat is gone, obviously.

00:27:25.600 Uh, but we'll, we'll see, you know, or at least I would say it's likely, uh, to be, but

00:27:29.900 there are some areas where we have seen in recent elections, Peter, in this part of the

00:27:34.380 country, uh, where they're, you know, things have changed.

00:27:37.160 They're not what they used to be.

00:27:38.380 And they still have that history.

00:27:40.280 Uh, so it gets a little bit more educated as time goes on.

00:27:43.580 So it is one area where I wouldn't take for granted.

00:27:46.460 Would it, if you twisted my arm, I would say, obviously, I think the Republican has a slight

00:27:50.420 edge here.

00:27:50.820 I think Republicans in most of these that we're going through before the break, let me just

00:27:54.480 say that they do have the edge because it is an incumbent midterm, a first term incumbent

00:28:00.240 midterm.

00:28:00.780 All right, my brother.

00:28:01.280 Uh, we're going to be back in, uh, just a few minutes.

00:28:04.320 We are with Richard Barris, uh, taking a great tour of the United States politically.

00:28:08.900 I am Peter K Navarro in the war room for Stephen K Bannon.

00:28:23.340 Friends, if you're thinking about stocking up on emergency food because of what's going

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00:29:34.780 That's the incendiary new book from former Trump trade czar, Peter Navarro, available

00:29:40.720 on Amazon today.

00:29:42.300 Stephen K. Bannon calls Taking Back Trump's America a brass knuckled insider's account

00:29:47.200 of the merciless 2020 fall and miraculous 2024 rise of the White House of Trump.

00:29:53.120 Taking Back Trump's America is the blueprint for a new Trump White House that will truly

00:29:58.200 make America great once again.

00:30:00.360 Order Taking Back Trump's America today on Amazon.

00:30:04.780 Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K. Bannon.

00:30:07.940 We must take back Trump's America.

00:30:11.100 This book, Taking Back Trump's America, for me is not a book.

00:30:14.180 It's a mission right now.

00:30:16.320 And as I write in the Taking Back Trump's America book, we can't get Donald Trump in the

00:30:21.760 White House in 2024 unless we get Pelosi the hell out of Congress as the speaker in 2022.

00:30:29.560 For the next 30-something days, our mission, Posse, is to do everything we can to help some

00:30:38.520 candidates there and toss up races.

00:30:40.620 So I'm going to do this a little bit in real time.

00:30:42.800 I'm going to ask Cameron later on to get some of the picks up on the War Room site.

00:30:49.680 But we've been talking with Richard Barris, so I'm going to go right back to him quickly.

00:30:53.740 But so far, Cameron and Posse, the three of the races that really have caught my eye for

00:31:01.520 Posse help, the ones that can win, Zach Nunn, the Republican versus Sidney Axney in Iowa 3.

00:31:09.960 Richard Barris came up with a fascinating race that the leadership, such as it is in the

00:31:17.920 House, Republicans, have been ignoring.

00:31:20.400 It's Kelly Cooper, Kelly Cooper in Arizona 4.

00:31:25.240 Let's see if we can get his website and help him out.

00:31:29.780 I love this Anna Luna race, a Republican in Florida 13, a Latina that can definitely win. 1.00

00:31:37.140 And again, in Texas 15, Monica De La Cruz, the Republican. 1.00

00:31:42.360 Those are all seats that we could have a four-seat swing alone by focusing on those alone.

00:31:49.960 All right.

00:31:50.700 Now, let's get back to the great Richard Barris here.

00:31:55.960 And before we start, Richard, would you just let people know how to support your efforts?

00:32:02.420 Because there's another important poll you've got to be doing in October.

00:32:06.320 So give them the pitch there and your best Mike Lindell pitch.

00:32:10.500 And then we'll come back.

00:32:11.540 And I want to talk about next, May 2 and Bruce Poliquin.

00:32:16.820 Yeah.

00:32:17.500 Thanks for that, Peter.

00:32:19.160 If people go to bigdatapoll.com and they scroll to the bottom, they're going to see the public

00:32:23.420 polling project, a bunch of graphs, right track, wrong track.

00:32:26.900 We have a lot more we have to put up.

00:32:28.300 But below that as well, you can see where you can support it.

00:32:30.740 It's a completely crowdfunded effort.

00:32:32.620 It is not sponsored by a media organization, which I don't want to let go of this.

00:32:37.680 We do do media polling.

00:32:38.980 But this was very successful in 2020.

00:32:42.380 We went state by state.

00:32:43.980 This is for the generic ballot and national numbers to get Joe Biden's approval rating.

00:32:48.240 And look, when we're trying to forecast the way things are going, Peter, I always trust

00:32:52.320 myself more than I trust anybody else.

00:32:54.900 So, you know, it has been more than a few cycles when I was the outsider or outlier and

00:33:02.600 I, you know, I was I was right and they were not.

00:33:06.600 So I hate to be left like these other forecasters, solely relying on media polling because it's

00:33:13.300 not very good.

00:33:14.060 So, yeah, we're now in October 4th and it's very important to get at least another, if

00:33:20.220 not one, at least another two generic ballots, one final, but definitely an October one to

00:33:25.720 see because we had it tighten as well.

00:33:27.760 We still had a Republican lead, but it tightened.

00:33:30.340 And I want to see where it is now.

00:33:31.560 And I think it's very important.

00:33:33.800 All right, my brother.

00:33:34.960 Let's let's go to the great state of Maine.

00:33:36.860 I want to preface this by a little time I spent when I was in the White House.

00:33:43.540 Maine, too, Maine has two congressional districts.

00:33:47.160 Maine, one is the kind of the Portland area where all of the liberals from Boston kind of

00:33:52.820 hang out to avoid taxes.

00:33:55.180 And it's hopelessly it's hopelessly Democrat.

00:33:59.840 Right.

00:34:00.380 But we could always we always wanted to hang on to Maine, too.

00:34:03.720 And like my mission at the White House was it was to help the lobster folks, the blueberry

00:34:08.900 folks, the timber folks.

00:34:10.660 And I took it as a matter of some pride that we could go after that and win it.

00:34:17.360 So I was when I looked at this race, I was surprised that this guy, Jared Golden, a Democrat

00:34:24.640 and incumbent, is holding on to Maine, too.

00:34:28.140 There's a guy named Bruce Poliquin, the Republican.

00:34:31.820 We'd love to see him win.

00:34:33.720 Do you have any thoughts on this race, Richard?

00:34:37.480 Yeah, two.

00:34:38.760 One is Bangor Daily News is the only pollster they have.

00:34:43.680 They have contracted the only pollster who has a good track record of polling, not only

00:34:48.600 the entire state, but specifically Maine, too.

00:34:51.320 If you go back and look the last three cycles of polling, you will see nothing but blue except

00:34:56.240 for, you know, even when Trump carried Maine, too, except for the Bangor Daily, which had

00:35:01.100 Trump up by eight, nailed it both times.

00:35:04.120 This, again, too, is like Alaska, where you have crazy voting and crazy on how you count

00:35:08.940 votes.

00:35:09.760 But I would say if anybody can do this, I'm more bullish on Poliquin than I am on some

00:35:13.960 of these other races.

00:35:15.140 Why?

00:35:15.500 You know, he's very Trumpy.

00:35:17.540 It's Maine, too.

00:35:18.760 You know, Mitt Romney would lose Maine, too.

00:35:20.860 He would, but not Donald Trump.

00:35:23.380 It is a different message.

00:35:24.860 Poliquin is all about inflation, immigration, trade. 0.97

00:35:28.820 So if anybody can do it, it's him.

00:35:31.400 It is a pure toss-up, but I would say he's got a strong chance.

00:35:37.300 They started ranked choice voting.

00:35:41.240 Them and Alaska are the only two, for now.

00:35:44.960 Give it time.

00:35:45.680 All right.

00:35:46.160 All right.

00:35:46.620 Let's go to a state which is always an enigma to me, given, again, when I was in the White

00:35:54.720 House, my mission was to rebuild the manufacturing base in this country.

00:36:00.440 And, of course, Michigan is at the center of that, along with Ohio and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

00:36:07.280 But, first of all, the Tudor Dixon, the Republican versus the Witch Gretchen Whitmer, a lot of

00:36:19.040 suppression polls, I think, out.

00:36:20.580 Megan, like, that race is over.

00:36:22.680 See if you have any comments on that.

00:36:24.100 And I've got three, at least three races on my radar here.

00:36:29.140 Michigan, three.

00:36:30.300 John Gibbs, the Republican, versus Hillary Schotten.

00:36:35.540 Michigan, ten.

00:36:37.280 John James, the Republican, versus Carl Malinga.

00:36:41.340 And Michigan, thirty-six.

00:36:43.820 Steve Cara versus Roger Williams.

00:36:46.840 So, why don't you give us a nice slice of Michigan here, from Detroit to the UP?

00:36:54.920 You know, let's see.

00:36:56.300 Michigan, three.

00:36:57.640 You know, in full disclosure, during the primary, I did poll for John Gibbs.

00:37:01.440 You know, but since the pivot to the general, that's no longer the case.

00:37:06.980 I'm trying to take an independent look at it here.

00:37:08.820 But this really should be a seat that Republicans pick up.

00:37:13.400 It's really a hold, actually, because John Gibbs, of course, beat the Trump impeaching Peter

00:37:18.120 Meyer with universal name recognition.

00:37:20.100 When we pulled this from Gibbs in this, you know, before the primary, he was the only one who got nine and ten Republican-based support and actually had a slight lead with independence.

00:37:30.940 So, he had a small lead.

00:37:32.820 Since then, a lot of money has been thrown at him.

00:37:35.820 I had seen some other polling from Republican entities.

00:37:39.980 It was ridiculously educated.

00:37:42.620 Michigan is a working-class state.

00:37:45.240 All right.

00:37:45.560 So, the polls are horrible.

00:37:48.400 That being said, somebody I know who does poll Michigan, well, did have Tudor Dixon struggling.

00:37:53.900 She's down.

00:37:54.620 Not horribly, but she's down.

00:37:56.680 And there is that abortion issue, and all of the Democrats are trying to latch on to that.

00:38:02.040 At the end of the day, it may peel some votes away.

00:38:04.380 I just don't see it being maybe a factor in the governor's race more so than something for John Gibbs.

00:38:12.220 John's got to win this race, and I think he can.

00:38:14.500 I do.

00:38:15.060 But I think it's going to be close.

00:38:16.180 So, Sabato and Cook report, yeah, but just to say one thing, Sabato and Cook both have the Gibbs race lean Democrat, so.

00:38:27.060 Yeah, because they're frauds.

00:38:28.800 You know, they're frauds.

00:38:30.400 They're glorified poll readers.

00:38:32.240 You know, I did this.

00:38:33.720 I was playing Twitter Jeopardy the other day, Peter.

00:38:36.120 Which forecaster had their final email memo out there that said Democrats poised to pick up at least 15 seats in 2020?

00:38:43.860 You know, those guys all believed that Democrats were going to add to their majority in 2020.

00:38:49.200 Minute Gibbs won that election, won that primary.

00:38:52.200 They moved it to Lean's D.

00:38:53.780 If they really cared about what the data showed, they would have moved it at least from Lean's D to toss-up, if not toss-up, to Lean's Republican at that time.

00:39:02.400 Because Republicans had a nice lead on the generic ballot.

00:39:05.280 And all of the polling, it wasn't just mine.

00:39:07.180 Peter Mayer's own polling, which people leaked to me from his campaign, his own polling showed that he was getting blown out by Hillary because he couldn't hold the Republican base.

00:39:19.120 Peter, we found almost 4 in 10 Republicans said, I would rather him lose because he voted to impeach Donald Trump.

00:39:26.740 I would rather not vote at all in that race and watch him go down in flames.

00:39:31.520 That if they think those people were lying, they're nuts, but they're not pollsters.

00:39:36.200 They're glorified poll readers, and there's no forecast model.

00:39:40.420 They're looking at polls, just like the rest of you at home are doing.

00:39:43.540 That's all they do.

00:39:45.020 There's nothing special.

00:39:46.200 They don't have a secret sauce.

00:39:47.660 That's why they're wrong all the time, because the polls are wrong all the time.

00:39:52.100 The more inaccurate the polls get, the more inaccurate their forecast models get.

00:39:55.860 You find a relationship there, right?

00:39:58.180 Let's go to Minnesota.

00:40:01.680 There's one race there that I'm really interested in there.

00:40:05.800 It's rated toss-up.

00:40:07.680 It's a chance to pick up a seat.

00:40:10.020 It's Tyler Kistner, the Republican, versus Angie Craig, the incumbent.

00:40:15.980 Is this on your radar?

00:40:18.940 I actually think Angie Craig is one of the most vulnerable incumbents across the board. 1.00

00:40:26.220 So if Republicans have a good night, she's finished.

00:40:29.320 I know people want to keep talking about Finstead and won the special election.

00:40:34.060 He barely won it, and he won it by four points.

00:40:36.540 And he won it with the largest share that a Republican congressional candidate has won,

00:40:40.460 going back to 2010 when they started looking in that area in Olmstead County.

00:40:45.780 I got to tell you, too, or outside of it, I got to tell you, too,

00:40:49.100 that everyone wanted to compare his margin to Donald Trump.

00:40:51.680 Trump won it by almost 10.

00:40:53.080 Well, he's Donald Trump, and it's Minnesota.

00:40:55.300 It's that kind of area in the Midwest outside of the Twin Cities where Donald Trump is just a rock star.

00:41:02.860 So you don't compare Congress to the presidency if you know that there's a long history of other congressional candidates.

00:41:09.840 Republicans have underperformed Trump there for years.

00:41:13.000 So Finstead did the best we've seen any modern candidate do in the last four cycles.

00:41:18.440 So I think that's solid.

00:41:20.560 Going to that next one with Angie Craig, I think if you see Finstead win that by five, then Angie's done.

00:41:27.920 She's done.

00:41:28.460 You know, I mean, because she has been struggling to hold on for a long time and redistricting did not really go the way she had hoped.

00:41:36.180 Is the Kistner race, is that something the War Room Posse could get involved in?

00:41:41.940 Is that one that's close enough to matter?

00:41:45.440 This is another thing.

00:41:47.240 It is.

00:41:48.740 You know, I would say, too, going back even with Gibbs, you know, there's a lot of help that could have been given earlier that was not given.

00:41:56.480 And, you know, it's like, look, I've said this before, and I know, you know, I'm not here to make friends.

00:42:02.400 I, you know, I shoot, I call balls and strikes.

00:42:05.820 McCarthy sat on his hands for a long time.

00:42:09.560 You know, it took weeks, weeks to contact some of these candidates.

00:42:13.240 So I think it's going to have to be the voter who does it.

00:42:16.380 And, you know, that that's it's going to have to be the voter.

00:42:19.160 It's going to have to be Trump.

00:42:20.120 He sucked a lot of money out of the room.

00:42:21.680 Let's face it.

00:42:22.320 You know, there's people that need help.

00:42:26.100 They cannot do this when the Democrats are constantly outracing and beating them over the head.

00:42:31.180 That being said, some of these races, you would think with the Democrat advantage would be over, Peter.

00:42:35.140 The fact that they're not should tell you everything about how this season is going.

00:42:40.040 So, you know, John James, clear a favorite in Michigan.

00:42:43.180 You know, so I would I would if you're looking at who to help, you know, I don't want to I'm trying to walk a line here.

00:42:47.660 But if you're looking at who to help, you know, Gibbs could be the help a lot more than John James could.

00:42:52.760 You know, which, by the way, who are they for?

00:42:55.060 Who is the leadership focused on?

00:42:56.960 It's like they're trying to win races.

00:42:58.620 They know they're likely to win anyway.

00:43:01.320 And they're not trying to make that extra effort.

00:43:04.160 Yeah.

00:43:04.440 You know, counting, counting votes, not seats.

00:43:07.520 Yeah.

00:43:07.820 Counting votes.

00:43:08.540 Yeah.

00:43:09.160 All right.

00:43:09.900 We are with the great.

00:43:10.820 That's right.

00:43:11.220 Barris.

00:43:11.540 We will be back for a wrap up around the around the country.

00:43:16.720 And I am Peter Kay Navarro in for Stephen Kay Bannon.

00:43:20.900 We will take back Trump's America together.

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00:45:56.400 All right.

00:45:56.620 Let's go back to Richard Barris.

00:45:58.800 We've added, Cameron, two races to our list.

00:46:04.260 The Gibbs race in Michigan 3 for the Posse to support.

00:46:08.980 And Tyler Kistner in Michigan 2.

00:46:11.820 That would be well worth your time and money for those two races.

00:46:15.480 All right.

00:46:15.880 Richard, we're going to do, because we're short in this last segment, a lightning round.

00:46:21.060 Um, North Carolina, you got the, uh, Sandy Smith versus Donald Davis and NC1 and Bo Hines versus

00:46:30.340 Willie Nickel, um, NC13, um, which either one of those races, um, are close enough to

00:46:38.260 get the Posse involved in.

00:46:40.380 Yeah, I, I, I understand the liens Democrat rating from other people, uh, when it comes to, uh, North Carolina

00:46:46.740 one, but Sandy Smith is endorsed by Donald Trump.

00:46:49.100 And in a good year, she absolutely can win that race. 0.60

00:46:51.460 Uh, and Tyler's Minnesota too, by the way, uh, Bo, when it comes to Bo, I think Bo is favored.

00:46:56.500 Not that he's, you know, got to take his foot off the gas.

00:46:58.820 Nobody ever should, but, uh, I think that his race is much, obviously much easier to win, uh, than Sandy's,

00:47:04.900 but Sandy can win that race. 0.93

00:47:07.160 She can.

00:47:07.680 Uh, let's go, uh, to New Hampshire.

00:47:10.680 I got two races there.

00:47:12.560 Bob Burns versus Andy Custer, an incumbent in New Hampshire too.

00:47:16.960 And then the Caroline Levitt, Chris Pappas race, another Democrat incumbent in NH1.

00:47:22.680 What say you, sir?

00:47:24.480 This is especially, uh, one is a, uh, I would say, uh, a manic, uh, district.

00:47:30.060 They swing back and forth because Shea Porter used to have these fights, uh, you know, every 1.00

00:47:34.880 year.

00:47:35.340 The Republican would lose it.

00:47:36.660 The Democrat would lose it back and forth, back and forth.

00:47:39.360 Uh, you know, I really think, uh, there leans Democrat only because of incumbency.

00:47:43.720 And I think that may not be the factor that some people, uh, believe down ballot, even

00:47:48.720 though the Senate polling looks like, uh, Hassan is keeping a lead.

00:47:52.640 Now, even though Democrats don't feel that comfortable about it behind closed doors, by

00:47:56.740 the way, uh, but down ballot, the polling from Anselm college and the university of

00:48:01.060 New Hampshire, which hasn't been great, uh, shows down ballot, Republicans are going to

00:48:05.300 do very well.

00:48:06.180 So I'm not sure if that Senate race, even if Hassan wins is going to translate into it,

00:48:12.600 you know, an advantage for the incumbents there.

00:48:14.920 So I really do think, uh, especially one is a toss up and we're just going to have to

00:48:19.900 wait and see, uh, you know, whether new polling comes in maybe, or at least credible.

00:48:23.860 So, so help, uh, help, help Caroline Leavitt, help Caroline Leavitt.

00:48:27.980 Yeah.

00:48:28.300 I really think Leavitt can win.

00:48:30.340 I really do think she can.

00:48:31.760 I absolutely.

00:48:32.680 All right.

00:48:32.960 Let's go to, um, Ohio nine.

00:48:37.120 Um, I know Marcy Kaptur, the Democrat incumbent for when I was in the white house, she talks,

00:48:43.360 uh, a good game, but, but then never delivers Pelosi private has Majewski, Jared Majewski got

00:48:50.000 a chance there.

00:48:50.740 Or is that a race that you'd recommend the Posse, uh, think about helping?

00:48:55.540 He, he absolutely does.

00:48:57.040 Look, I got to say this real quick, you know, between a lot of these races we're talking about

00:49:00.880 right now, these are only races that, uh, aren't, you know, considered leaning Republican,

00:49:06.340 especially Jr.

00:49:07.320 Marcy Kaptur is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country right now.

00:49:10.500 He's been hit with a lot of negative press.

00:49:12.840 And again, uh, Kevin McCarthy abandoned him.

00:49:16.240 So, you know, if he doesn't get help from people, then it's, you know, it could be a

00:49:20.740 waste of a race that is easily winnable, especially if the polling as usual is really wrong in

00:49:27.380 Ohio and JD Vance wins that state by eight points.

00:49:31.020 If he does, then, you know, Kaptur would be having a very difficult time holding on very

00:49:36.020 difficult.

00:49:36.260 All right.

00:49:36.420 Let's, but, um, you know, let's jump to, uh, let's jump to, let's jump to, let's jump

00:49:41.480 to Pennsylvania and let's, I've got, uh, Jim Bognit in Pennsylvania eight is a toss-up versus

00:49:49.320 Matt Cartwright, the incumbent.

00:49:50.840 That's a great chance to pick up a seat.

00:49:52.460 Uh, and Jeremy Schaefer versus Chris Deluzio, Pennsylvania 17, another toss-up.

00:49:59.760 Um, what say you, sir?

00:50:03.240 And in seven, I think Scheller is, uh, probably favored.

00:50:07.180 I think it's fair to say that one leans Republican.

00:50:09.200 The other two really are toss-ups and it will matter how, uh, how, uh, you know, Oz and Doug

00:50:14.520 Mastriano do there.

00:50:16.620 Generically, the Pennsylvania, the generic ballot in Republican, uh, is Republican in Pennsylvania.

00:50:21.960 I know I pulled it.

00:50:23.620 Uh, you know, those two are the ones who would benefit from that the most.

00:50:27.560 They were running a little bit behind Trump though.

00:50:30.120 You know, we did the rematch as well.

00:50:31.720 And generically, Republicans were running a little bit, uh, behind Donald Trump statewide.

00:50:36.200 He was crushing Joe Biden.

00:50:38.140 Uh, so that concerns, that should concern Republicans a little bit.

00:50:42.680 But again, if the, you know, if it's undecided people, Peter, there, uh, that are willing to

00:50:48.840 say they'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024, if they get to the polls and it's highly likely

00:50:54.380 they're going to vote for the Republican in the congressional district.

00:50:56.700 Both, both Bognet and Schaefer are worth doing.

00:50:59.700 Does Mastriano, is he, is he, uh, is he close enough to win now?

00:51:05.160 I got to pull that again.

00:51:06.660 I understand what people, you know, that, that I, I told people Oz definitely had, uh, the

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Bannon's War Room - October 04, 2022

Episode 2200： Where Are We As We Head Into November

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