Episode 2200： Where Are We As We Head Into November
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Summary
With less than 40 days to go before the midterms, a new survey is painting a dangerous picture of the future of American democracy. A recent poll conducted by Yahoo News and YouGov shows less than half of Americans believe candidates should commit in advance to accepting the results of this year s midterm elections.
Transcript
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Yesterday, I wanted to tell him, I didn't get to say it, there are more buyers than sellers.
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Okay, all right, now that we got that out of the way, you do have the VIX below 30 today for the
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first time in more than a week. Look, I felt that yesterday was the most disbelief, disbelief rally
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in the history of, I mean, I don't know, I mean, everyone I talked to said, look, it's this one
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off, it's over. Now, the experience is that if this market does not collapse by 11 o'clock,
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this is a brand new kind of recipe for a rally. With less than 40 days to go before the midterm
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elections, a new survey is painting a dangerous picture of the future of American democracy.
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A recent poll conducted by Yahoo News and YouGov shows less than half of Americans, 46 percent,
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believe candidates should commit in advance to accepting the results of this year's midterm
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elections. 55 percent say that once all the votes are counted, the candidate with the fewer votes
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should concede. Among Trump voters, that number falls to 44 percent. 38 percent of Trump voters
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say candidates with fewer votes should continue to challenge the results. Let's bring in right now
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political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz. Hey, Frank, good to see you again. What's your
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takeaway from these numbers? Scary as hell. I'm here at the Conservative Party Conference. I'm
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trying to say to them, be very careful what you wish for. Be very careful what kind of campaign you
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hold, because you could end up like the U.S. When you lose the faith and trust in elections itself,
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you've lost your democracy. And we are so close to the edge. I'm sitting in this room right now with
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a group of students from Radley College. And I have to teach them. I have to explain to them
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that this isn't the way democracy is supposed to work, that you have winners and losers. You accept
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the loss and then you move on. We are so poisoned. We are so toxic. And I don't want what's going on
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in the U.S. to happen here in the U.K. That would be a real tragedy. So now, Jonathan, is will the
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abortion decision, will Republican radicalism, will the aftermath of January 6th, will all of that
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taken together, will Uvalde, will these 10-year-old girls having to flee out of state from male
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legislators who want to force them to have their rapist babies, will all of that combined be enough
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to, will bend history? And right now, I must say, looking at the numbers, doesn't look like it.
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Yeah, it speaks to how powerful those historical forces are, that all those things you just
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mentioned, including the Roe v. Wade decision, which has become so animating for so many voters,
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particularly women, new female voters, and yet the Democrats still may fall short. I mean,
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the odds were against them from Election Day 2020, when the Democratic margin in the House was going to
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be so slim, it became next to impossible. Leading Democrats concede for them to be able to keep that
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party. And there is still a chance. We don't want it until a month ago. Things can change. It's not
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written in stone. But the odds are against them to be able to keep the House, even if they just lose
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it by a couple of seats. And in fact, it is because, Joe, of all those things you just mentioned,
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that's why the Senate's still in play. Because historical tradition, you know, 50-50, that would
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seem to likely break for Republicans as well. But now Democrats feel like they've got a fighting
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chance. It's going to come down to a handful of races. This thing is probably going to end up 50-50 or
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51-49 one way or the other. The Senate's that close. It's because of all those things you just
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Wow. Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K. Bannon. Look, all we need to do is, like, put those people
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on in campaign ads for Republicans around this country, and it'll be a friggin' landslide. I mean,
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what a set of villains you've got there. It sounded like a concession speech over there at MSNBC,
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they're basically saying it's over. They're clinging to this Roe v. Wade read somehow that's
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going to rescue these elections. I think not. We're going to have a great show today. We're
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going to spend much of this hour with the great pollster, Richard Bares, who I'm going to bring
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on shortly. And then in the 11th block, we're going to go out to Nevada. We're going to start
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there and look at how that Hispanic wave to the Republican Party is playing out boots on the
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ground. Just a quick market commentary. Yesterday and again today, we've had a big rally in the
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stock market. We're getting, again, the buy the dip language, this, that, and the other thing.
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There's optimism, this, that, and the other thing. Here's the thing. There's money that goes into stocks
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and there's money that goes into bonds. And there's always this movement between what they call asset
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allocation. Okay. So sometimes if you get a movement up in the stock market, it results purely
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from a shift from a shift from the bond to the stock market. Essentially, that's what we witnessed
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yesterday. And it was because of bad economic news. One of my favorite indicators, the Institute of
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Supply Chain Manufacturing Index was signaling strong recession. Okay. Now the logic of Wall Street is,
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well, that means the Fed won't raise interest rates as quickly as they said they were going to
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do. So that's a relief in the bond market from their plunge in bond prices. Therefore, let's move
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some money into stocks. Simple as that. We'll see how this long, this mini dead cat rally runs. But no one
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should take any kind of comfort in a stock market rally at this point contingent on expectations that
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the economy is going to be worse. Now, in order to introduce Richard Barris, I want to just say
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the book I have, Taking Back Trump's America, the whole mission of that book is to put Donald Trump back
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in the White House. But in my judgment, the only way we do that is first taking back the House of
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Representatives from Nancy Pelosi. And the reason, as I argue, in Taking Back Trump's America is fairly
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simple. Congress has weaponized the investigatory powers of Congress in an unconstitutional way,
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designed to do what they should not be doing, which is to create a phony, hoax, criminal prosecution
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of Trump for the sole purpose of either throwing enough mud at him to make sure he doesn't win,
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or their dream scenario is to prevent him from running to begin with because they put him in jail.
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That's what they are doing. And if you allow the wound of Nancy Pelosi to fester and stay open
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by having her retain the Speaker's gavel in 2024, all hope is lost. Now, what we
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preach here in the war room is the canon of Steve Bannon. It's action, action, action. It's not just
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that you have to go to the polls on game day in November and cast your vote. That's just part of
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it. What I'm asking you to do between now and then is find one or more candidates out there around the
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country who are in tight races that we absolutely need to win to take the House and the Senate. You
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know, we've talked a lot about Blake Masters in Arizona. That guy, Mitch McConnell, has abandoned
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him. He can win that race, help Blake out. Those are the kinds of things we do. So with that in mind,
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what we're going to do today, it should be fun, is take you kind of on a tour of much of the United
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States. Go state by state. Look at some of the congressional races there and see where you might
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come into the picture in terms of helping candidates. Without further ado, then, let's bring in Richard
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Barris. Richard, my brother, how are you today, sir? Living the dream as always, Peter. How you doing, brother?
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Yeah. I'm just hanging in there. So what I thought we'd do before we start the state by state exercises
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is kind of look at kind of the generic handicapping of where we're at on the House and Senate, if you
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want. So what you got for us, and I know you want to do another poll on that in October. So just wax
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eloquent a little bit. Where are we at? Where's the chessboard at?
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And people can help us do that if they go to Big Data Poll, Peter, and just scroll to the bottom.
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They can learn about the public polling project. That's where we do it. I always trust my own
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numbers more than I trust anybody else. But without a doubt, whether you're looking at the Monmouth poll,
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which was a very big shift over the last month and a half to Republicans, whether you're looking at
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YouGov, which for The Economist, which actually did a likely voter, that was a five-point shift among
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registered voters alone. And Republicans had a lead there on the generic ballot. Now, that's
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significant because that basically never happens, Peter. I mean, it's with the methodology from
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The Economist, YouGov, it's pretty much almost impossible for Republicans to lead a popular vote
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poll because their waiting is so ridiculously unrealistic.
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But, you know, we made a lot of hay last week about the ABC News poll, and the talk was whether
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or not that shift was going to be prevalent in other polls as well. And I think, without a doubt,
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you can't argue that ABC may have picked up on something, you know. So there is a move after
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we came out of the summer and post-Labor Day to Republicans.
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I think it's fair to say that Biden and the Democrats got that bump from that flurry of
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bills that got passed. It looks like Biden's approval rating got up. But I think, would it
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not be true that the reality, the stark reality of the economy and the collapse of the financial
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markets is settling in? And this is going to be an economy stupid election. Is that where we're at?
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Yeah, that's what, you know, I really grabbed onto that with Monmouth yesterday. And it's not that
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I think they're a fantastic poll. You know, the truth is they're really not. But a trend is a trend
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no matter any way you slice it. And, you know, their generic ballot is a little bit weird. I've shown
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people this with the public polling project. If you ask the generic ballot, Peter, who do you prefer
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to control Congress? It's different than if you ask them, who do you intend to vote for? Which is,
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when I was coming up, that's a traditional generic ballot. And that's the way we word it.
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I showed people in one of the first public polling projects we did with the generic ballot,
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look, we can ask this question two different ways, and you're going to get two different answers.
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Which, you know, they're each useful in their own way. But what they found,
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which is what I have been clamming about for weeks and weeks now, polling is always spotty in
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the summer. Maybe Biden's approval bounced up a little bit. We had them tick up two points
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over the course of three months over the summer. That's it. So other people now, you know, ABC's
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back down to 38, 39. The Monmouth Poll's back down to 40. They came up with this, and this is what
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matters. Abortion rights is not outweighing people's economic concerns when it comes to who they intend
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to vote for. So if they're holding back and they're not telling the pollster, you know, I don't know,
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and I'm not sure yet, they're going to vote Republican. Or not vote at all. And that's
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the Republican's job is to get those people out. But, you know, we're polling Arizona right now.
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It's the same we've seen in every state, Peter. These people disapprove of Biden. Overwhelming.
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Got it. Let's do this. We got about a minute and a half to the break here. Let's see if we can fit
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Alaska in first, and then we'll come back after the break and start with Arizona. So, you know,
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obviously, the Sarah Palin-Mary Peltrola race is interesting. But what's boots on the ground in
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Alaska? What are you reading on the state and maybe that race?
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You know, it really is still a toss-up because of the bitter blood. It should not be. Everyone give
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Lisa Murkowski and her rhino team a hand. They threw Alaska to the Democrats in order to save
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Lisa Murkowski's own skin. She sacrificed the entire state and their energy economy because in the mid to
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long term, Peter, this is going to become a bigger problem for Republicans. She did it because she
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knew she could not survive a traditional Republican primary. So her and her people work behind the scenes
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to get ranked choice voting. I still do think come November, you know, you probably have to give
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Palin a little edge because they're going to be more Republican votes, but you beg it, you know,
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just they don't get along, you know, and they're telling people not to vote for Palin. So if you have
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more moderate Republicans who go out and cast their first vote, right, and nobody gets to 50,
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they wind up putting Paul Tola, Mayor Paul Tola as their second choice, which is what happened in
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that special. Then that's a problem. That's problematic. That being said, there will be more voters in
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November than there were in that special. And that's the X factor for Mary Paul Tola.
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I was thinking there'd be like a backlash when, when she lost, when Palin lost in that special
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that would really energize the, uh, Alaskan Republicans. You're not seeing that or who knows?
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You know, I, it's a tough, it's a tough state to poll. I wouldn't, unless I pulled it myself,
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I wouldn't believe anything that I've seen from people. Alaska is, uh, one of, it's probably the most
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difficult state to poll. It probably is. And then you add ranked choice voting to that. And it's
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like, guys, take it with a grain of salt. I don't care who does it. I don't care if it's Fabrizio or
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some, you know, uh, left-wing news outlet. It's a difficult state. You're not reaching those rural
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areas. Not happening. All right, brother. Uh, we're kind of, okay, be right back with Richard Barris and
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we're going to go to the great state, uh, of Arizona. I am Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K.
00:14:54.740
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Yeah, true that. Coming for all of us unless we take back Trump's America. Okay, we are having
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a tour of the United States today apropos of Taking Back Trump's America. The mission
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for everybody in the posse is to win back the House of Representatives and get Pelosi the hell out of
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there peacefully at the ballot box. And so we're talking to the great Richard Barris where we have
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begun our tour around the country. So Richard, let's go right to Arizona. I've got three races
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congressionally that I'm looking at. It's David Schweiker versus Jevin Hodge, Eli Crane versus Tom
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Halloran and Juan Siscomani versus Kirsten Engel. That's the one most interesting to me to see
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whether that's in reach. But let's give us an overview of where Arizona is with Cary Lake,
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Blake Masters and Fincham and then maybe we can get to these Congress races.
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Yeah, some of these I've pulled actually, Peter, which is great on the whole list actually, but you
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know, getting to Arizona and we're pulling it now. People should keep an eye out with CDM.press tomorrow.
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The poll will be, will be out likely tomorrow. But I got to tell you, O'Halloran is done. I mean,
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I don't know how he survives. I would add to that given what we're seeing generically in Arizona.
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But he was redistricted into a lot of red vote, you know, to the North. And that's problematic for him.
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It's almost backward of what happened to David Schweikert. That being said, again, because of
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how the Republican ticket at the state level is performing, without giving away too much here,
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I do think that Schweikert, you know, that leans Republican rating we're seeing on all the
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forecasters is understating Schweikert's support.
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But, you know, so O'Halloran, I think he needs a miracle at this point to survive.
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I think he needs, you know, the Holy Mother to intervene on behalf of him.
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And I would actually add Arizona 4 to this if it ends up being a real wipeout where you
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You know, because, again, we have redistricting going along.
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And then you have Greg's, oh, Scanton, Stanton, Stanton, with two T's, sorry.
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And then you have Greg Stanton, who is the incumbent Democrat.
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You know, which I guess I would put that race as, you know, toss up to leans D because
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I wouldn't even, I wouldn't even normally say toss up if I didn't pull it myself.
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But because I did, I'm looking at the entirety of the state and, you know, the mood and the
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direction that I think the state's going to go.
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So, and, you know, if he would hold on, it wouldn't shock me, but everybody else would
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And he was a small businessman who ran because of COVID's lockdown, hurting his small businesses.
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You know, months ago, I actually had him on Inside the Numbers and I asked him why he ran
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and because he's a small business owner and to let people go, for those who have ever,
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you know, hired or employed anybody before, when the government forces you to shut your
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business down and you have to let people go that rely on you for a paycheck, it's painful.
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And his daughter really looked at him and said, Daddy, you're going to let this happen?
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So he's really, you know, he's really likable and he won in, I would say, an upset.
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He is certainly more Trumpy than the establishment candidate that they, that Kevin McCarthy backed
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and she lost, you know, the local, I would say the, the local McCain wing that had been
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It was close, but he, he edged her out and you know, he's been, he's been running ever
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since in a nice way, you know, he, he would carry for it.
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There's the Juan Siscomani, the Republican on your radar.
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Cause he's, he's a Latino person, Kirsten England and AZ six.
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It's a, it's a, I would say it's the district itself is favorable to Republicans.
00:21:51.400
I mean, again, with the exception of, you know, there are two very democratic seats in
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Arizona and then you have Arizona four, which is, um, you know, I would say, uh, leans Democrat
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You know, and it's got a, there's a built in advantage there, but in a bad year for Democrats,
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Peter, they're going to have problems just about in four, six is, you know, a real crapshoot
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and O'Halloran is banking on being in two is banking on being an incumbent, but I'm telling
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I want to zip through these things fairly quickly.
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Um, but how's, uh, how's Florida, I mean, Florida is a big red wave at this point, but
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It is very likely Corey Mills going to be the next, uh, representative from seven.
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The other is another interesting race, which is in, uh, 13, uh, Luna, Anna Luna, who I told
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the Republican party in 2020, you know, they always, you know, ask, uh, I said this, this
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Uh, and she came that close and with no support, with no support because why Republican leadership
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is always stupid and they believe, uh, the, uh, you know, the media polling and their own
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and, and, and truth be told, their own pollsters give them bad data.
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Um, you know, so Texas 15, Florida 13, these are all districts Republicans probably should
00:23:36.060
Um, but, uh, they, they, they weren't aggressive enough, you know, and they, they did what, uh,
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Mitch McConnell is very good at doing, which is like, you know, pulling the fire alarm.
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I, I always, I always make this analogy, but it's true, you know, believing that the house
00:23:51.200
And instead of being a leader, he tramples over the bodies of small children while he
00:23:55.240
runs out of the burning building himself to save himself, you know?
00:23:59.020
So I mean, that's what I just, I just jumped quickly ahead to, uh, Texas 15.
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What we're trying to do here, Richard, for the, for the posse is to identify a small number
00:24:10.520
of races here today that they can go to their candidates' websites and help them in a toss
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So there's Anna Luna one fascinates me, but you said Monica LaCruz, that's the Republican
00:24:21.600
in Texas 15 versus Michelle Vallejo, who is an incumbent.
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Uh, now it's been redistricted and it actually is redistricted slightly in favor of, uh, Republicans
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more given what we're seeing in the, the, the shift in the Hispanic vote, you know, Peter,
00:24:43.900
And I would add 34 to that only, uh, it is going to be hot harder for Myra Flores to hold
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And that's because I, I just think that at this point there are, I, you know, I'm looking
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at the Telemundo poll, which always understates Republican support.
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And even they are showing that it's roughly in line with 2020, you know, and I know that you
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And Republicans are going to benefit even more than that poll suggests from a shift in
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Uh, and those, if you're going to make it happen, you're going to make a play for it.
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Let's do, let's do one more before the break and then we'll come back and keep going.
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But the one that's fascinated me, um, is in Iowa.
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It's Iowa three, Zach Nunn versus Sidney Axney, who's the Democrat incumbent.
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I think, I think she's getting the axe, uh, you know, in good Republican years, Republicans
00:25:44.740
could take every single district in the state of Iowa.
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And, um, yeah, there's a lot of economics, uh, that go into this, you know, for people,
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you know, the issues you talk about all the time, you were just did in the cold open there
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when we were talking about markets and asset allocation, right?
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Um, you know, and the, the idea of free trade and all the money going to Ukraine, this ticks
00:26:12.940
people off in this area of the country because, you know, they're struggling, they're hurting.
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Uh, they don't get access to those foreign markets anyway.
00:26:20.720
It's like just basically writing a blank check to people while your own farmers struggle.
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Those people, the people in Iowa three rely on, uh, people in Iowa two.
00:26:30.660
So, uh, you know, I just see, I, I, I don't, I don't see Democrats holding onto this.
00:26:37.080
Let's try one more, one more before the break, one more before the break, Kansas three, Amanda
00:26:43.600
Atkins, uh, the Republican versus Sharice Davids, the incumbent.
00:26:55.300
Yeah, it is, but I would say that that is, that really is a pure toss up in a year like
00:27:07.800
You have States like Nebraska that are Ruby red, but they have this very deep rooted, uh,
00:27:13.460
history of progressive populism that kind of mixes in, uh, you know, so it's never just
00:27:21.220
Now, if it's a Republican plus three year, that seat is gone, obviously.
00:27:25.600
Uh, but we'll, we'll see, you know, or at least I would say it's likely, uh, to be, but
00:27:29.900
there are some areas where we have seen in recent elections, Peter, in this part of the
00:27:34.380
country, uh, where they're, you know, things have changed.
00:27:40.280
Uh, so it gets a little bit more educated as time goes on.
00:27:43.580
So it is one area where I wouldn't take for granted.
00:27:46.460
Would it, if you twisted my arm, I would say, obviously, I think the Republican has a slight
00:27:50.820
I think Republicans in most of these that we're going through before the break, let me just
00:27:54.480
say that they do have the edge because it is an incumbent midterm, a first term incumbent
00:28:01.280
Uh, we're going to be back in, uh, just a few minutes.
00:28:04.320
We are with Richard Barris, uh, taking a great tour of the United States politically.
00:28:08.900
I am Peter K Navarro in the war room for Stephen K Bannon.
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This book, Taking Back Trump's America, for me is not a book.
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White House in 2024 unless we get Pelosi the hell out of Congress as the speaker in 2022.
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For the next 30-something days, our mission, Posse, is to do everything we can to help some
00:30:40.620
So I'm going to do this a little bit in real time.
00:30:42.800
I'm going to ask Cameron later on to get some of the picks up on the War Room site.
00:30:49.680
But we've been talking with Richard Barris, so I'm going to go right back to him quickly.
00:30:53.740
But so far, Cameron and Posse, the three of the races that really have caught my eye for
00:31:01.520
Posse help, the ones that can win, Zach Nunn, the Republican versus Sidney Axney in Iowa 3.
00:31:09.960
Richard Barris came up with a fascinating race that the leadership, such as it is in the
00:31:25.240
Let's see if we can get his website and help him out.
00:31:29.780
I love this Anna Luna race, a Republican in Florida 13, a Latina that can definitely win.
00:31:37.140
And again, in Texas 15, Monica De La Cruz, the Republican.
00:31:42.360
Those are all seats that we could have a four-seat swing alone by focusing on those alone.
00:31:50.700
Now, let's get back to the great Richard Barris here.
00:31:55.960
And before we start, Richard, would you just let people know how to support your efforts?
00:32:02.420
Because there's another important poll you've got to be doing in October.
00:32:06.320
So give them the pitch there and your best Mike Lindell pitch.
00:32:11.540
And I want to talk about next, May 2 and Bruce Poliquin.
00:32:19.160
If people go to bigdatapoll.com and they scroll to the bottom, they're going to see the public
00:32:23.420
polling project, a bunch of graphs, right track, wrong track.
00:32:28.300
But below that as well, you can see where you can support it.
00:32:32.620
It is not sponsored by a media organization, which I don't want to let go of this.
00:32:43.980
This is for the generic ballot and national numbers to get Joe Biden's approval rating.
00:32:48.240
And look, when we're trying to forecast the way things are going, Peter, I always trust
00:32:54.900
So, you know, it has been more than a few cycles when I was the outsider or outlier and
00:33:02.600
I, you know, I was I was right and they were not.
00:33:06.600
So I hate to be left like these other forecasters, solely relying on media polling because it's
00:33:14.060
So, yeah, we're now in October 4th and it's very important to get at least another, if
00:33:20.220
not one, at least another two generic ballots, one final, but definitely an October one to
00:33:27.760
We still had a Republican lead, but it tightened.
00:33:36.860
I want to preface this by a little time I spent when I was in the White House.
00:33:43.540
Maine, too, Maine has two congressional districts.
00:33:47.160
Maine, one is the kind of the Portland area where all of the liberals from Boston kind of
00:34:00.380
But we could always we always wanted to hang on to Maine, too.
00:34:03.720
And like my mission at the White House was it was to help the lobster folks, the blueberry
00:34:10.660
And I took it as a matter of some pride that we could go after that and win it.
00:34:17.360
So I was when I looked at this race, I was surprised that this guy, Jared Golden, a Democrat
00:34:28.140
There's a guy named Bruce Poliquin, the Republican.
00:34:33.720
Do you have any thoughts on this race, Richard?
00:34:38.760
One is Bangor Daily News is the only pollster they have.
00:34:43.680
They have contracted the only pollster who has a good track record of polling, not only
00:34:51.320
If you go back and look the last three cycles of polling, you will see nothing but blue except
00:34:56.240
for, you know, even when Trump carried Maine, too, except for the Bangor Daily, which had
00:35:04.120
This, again, too, is like Alaska, where you have crazy voting and crazy on how you count
00:35:09.760
But I would say if anybody can do this, I'm more bullish on Poliquin than I am on some
00:35:24.860
Poliquin is all about inflation, immigration, trade.
00:35:31.400
It is a pure toss-up, but I would say he's got a strong chance.
00:35:46.620
Let's go to a state which is always an enigma to me, given, again, when I was in the White
00:35:54.720
House, my mission was to rebuild the manufacturing base in this country.
00:36:00.440
And, of course, Michigan is at the center of that, along with Ohio and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
00:36:07.280
But, first of all, the Tudor Dixon, the Republican versus the Witch Gretchen Whitmer, a lot of
00:36:24.100
And I've got three, at least three races on my radar here.
00:36:30.300
John Gibbs, the Republican, versus Hillary Schotten.
00:36:37.280
John James, the Republican, versus Carl Malinga.
00:36:46.840
So, why don't you give us a nice slice of Michigan here, from Detroit to the UP?
00:36:57.640
You know, in full disclosure, during the primary, I did poll for John Gibbs.
00:37:01.440
You know, but since the pivot to the general, that's no longer the case.
00:37:06.980
I'm trying to take an independent look at it here.
00:37:08.820
But this really should be a seat that Republicans pick up.
00:37:13.400
It's really a hold, actually, because John Gibbs, of course, beat the Trump impeaching Peter
00:37:20.100
When we pulled this from Gibbs in this, you know, before the primary, he was the only one who got nine and ten Republican-based support and actually had a slight lead with independence.
00:37:32.820
Since then, a lot of money has been thrown at him.
00:37:35.820
I had seen some other polling from Republican entities.
00:37:48.400
That being said, somebody I know who does poll Michigan, well, did have Tudor Dixon struggling.
00:37:56.680
And there is that abortion issue, and all of the Democrats are trying to latch on to that.
00:38:02.040
At the end of the day, it may peel some votes away.
00:38:04.380
I just don't see it being maybe a factor in the governor's race more so than something for John Gibbs.
00:38:12.220
John's got to win this race, and I think he can.
00:38:16.180
So, Sabato and Cook report, yeah, but just to say one thing, Sabato and Cook both have the Gibbs race lean Democrat, so.
00:38:33.720
I was playing Twitter Jeopardy the other day, Peter.
00:38:36.120
Which forecaster had their final email memo out there that said Democrats poised to pick up at least 15 seats in 2020?
00:38:43.860
You know, those guys all believed that Democrats were going to add to their majority in 2020.
00:38:49.200
Minute Gibbs won that election, won that primary.
00:38:53.780
If they really cared about what the data showed, they would have moved it at least from Lean's D to toss-up, if not toss-up, to Lean's Republican at that time.
00:39:02.400
Because Republicans had a nice lead on the generic ballot.
00:39:07.180
Peter Mayer's own polling, which people leaked to me from his campaign, his own polling showed that he was getting blown out by Hillary because he couldn't hold the Republican base.
00:39:19.120
Peter, we found almost 4 in 10 Republicans said, I would rather him lose because he voted to impeach Donald Trump.
00:39:26.740
I would rather not vote at all in that race and watch him go down in flames.
00:39:31.520
That if they think those people were lying, they're nuts, but they're not pollsters.
00:39:36.200
They're glorified poll readers, and there's no forecast model.
00:39:40.420
They're looking at polls, just like the rest of you at home are doing.
00:39:47.660
That's why they're wrong all the time, because the polls are wrong all the time.
00:39:52.100
The more inaccurate the polls get, the more inaccurate their forecast models get.
00:40:01.680
There's one race there that I'm really interested in there.
00:40:10.020
It's Tyler Kistner, the Republican, versus Angie Craig, the incumbent.
00:40:18.940
I actually think Angie Craig is one of the most vulnerable incumbents across the board.
00:40:26.220
So if Republicans have a good night, she's finished.
00:40:29.320
I know people want to keep talking about Finstead and won the special election.
00:40:34.060
He barely won it, and he won it by four points.
00:40:36.540
And he won it with the largest share that a Republican congressional candidate has won,
00:40:40.460
going back to 2010 when they started looking in that area in Olmstead County.
00:40:45.780
I got to tell you, too, or outside of it, I got to tell you, too,
00:40:49.100
that everyone wanted to compare his margin to Donald Trump.
00:40:55.300
It's that kind of area in the Midwest outside of the Twin Cities where Donald Trump is just a rock star.
00:41:02.860
So you don't compare Congress to the presidency if you know that there's a long history of other congressional candidates.
00:41:09.840
Republicans have underperformed Trump there for years.
00:41:13.000
So Finstead did the best we've seen any modern candidate do in the last four cycles.
00:41:20.560
Going to that next one with Angie Craig, I think if you see Finstead win that by five, then Angie's done.
00:41:28.460
You know, I mean, because she has been struggling to hold on for a long time and redistricting did not really go the way she had hoped.
00:41:36.180
Is the Kistner race, is that something the War Room Posse could get involved in?
00:41:48.740
You know, I would say, too, going back even with Gibbs, you know, there's a lot of help that could have been given earlier that was not given.
00:41:56.480
And, you know, it's like, look, I've said this before, and I know, you know, I'm not here to make friends.
00:42:02.400
I, you know, I shoot, I call balls and strikes.
00:42:09.560
You know, it took weeks, weeks to contact some of these candidates.
00:42:13.240
So I think it's going to have to be the voter who does it.
00:42:16.380
And, you know, that that's it's going to have to be the voter.
00:42:26.100
They cannot do this when the Democrats are constantly outracing and beating them over the head.
00:42:31.180
That being said, some of these races, you would think with the Democrat advantage would be over, Peter.
00:42:35.140
The fact that they're not should tell you everything about how this season is going.
00:42:40.040
So, you know, John James, clear a favorite in Michigan.
00:42:43.180
You know, so I would I would if you're looking at who to help, you know, I don't want to I'm trying to walk a line here.
00:42:47.660
But if you're looking at who to help, you know, Gibbs could be the help a lot more than John James could.
00:43:01.320
And they're not trying to make that extra effort.
00:43:11.540
We will be back for a wrap up around the around the country.
00:43:16.720
And I am Peter Kay Navarro in for Stephen Kay Bannon.
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The Gibbs race in Michigan 3 for the Posse to support.
00:46:11.820
That would be well worth your time and money for those two races.
00:46:15.880
Richard, we're going to do, because we're short in this last segment, a lightning round.
00:46:21.060
Um, North Carolina, you got the, uh, Sandy Smith versus Donald Davis and NC1 and Bo Hines versus
00:46:30.340
Willie Nickel, um, NC13, um, which either one of those races, um, are close enough to
00:46:40.380
Yeah, I, I, I understand the liens Democrat rating from other people, uh, when it comes to, uh, North Carolina
00:46:46.740
one, but Sandy Smith is endorsed by Donald Trump.
00:46:49.100
And in a good year, she absolutely can win that race.
00:46:51.460
Uh, and Tyler's Minnesota too, by the way, uh, Bo, when it comes to Bo, I think Bo is favored.
00:46:56.500
Not that he's, you know, got to take his foot off the gas.
00:46:58.820
Nobody ever should, but, uh, I think that his race is much, obviously much easier to win, uh, than Sandy's,
00:47:12.560
Bob Burns versus Andy Custer, an incumbent in New Hampshire too.
00:47:16.960
And then the Caroline Levitt, Chris Pappas race, another Democrat incumbent in NH1.
00:47:24.480
This is especially, uh, one is a, uh, I would say, uh, a manic, uh, district.
00:47:30.060
They swing back and forth because Shea Porter used to have these fights, uh, you know, every
00:47:36.660
The Democrat would lose it back and forth, back and forth.
00:47:39.360
Uh, you know, I really think, uh, there leans Democrat only because of incumbency.
00:47:43.720
And I think that may not be the factor that some people, uh, believe down ballot, even
00:47:48.720
though the Senate polling looks like, uh, Hassan is keeping a lead.
00:47:52.640
Now, even though Democrats don't feel that comfortable about it behind closed doors, by
00:47:56.740
the way, uh, but down ballot, the polling from Anselm college and the university of
00:48:01.060
New Hampshire, which hasn't been great, uh, shows down ballot, Republicans are going to
00:48:06.180
So I'm not sure if that Senate race, even if Hassan wins is going to translate into it,
00:48:12.600
you know, an advantage for the incumbents there.
00:48:14.920
So I really do think, uh, especially one is a toss up and we're just going to have to
00:48:19.900
wait and see, uh, you know, whether new polling comes in maybe, or at least credible.
00:48:23.860
So, so help, uh, help, help Caroline Leavitt, help Caroline Leavitt.
00:48:37.120
Um, I know Marcy Kaptur, the Democrat incumbent for when I was in the white house, she talks,
00:48:43.360
uh, a good game, but, but then never delivers Pelosi private has Majewski, Jared Majewski got
00:48:50.740
Or is that a race that you'd recommend the Posse, uh, think about helping?
00:48:57.040
Look, I got to say this real quick, you know, between a lot of these races we're talking about
00:49:00.880
right now, these are only races that, uh, aren't, you know, considered leaning Republican,
00:49:07.320
Marcy Kaptur is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country right now.
00:49:16.240
So, you know, if he doesn't get help from people, then it's, you know, it could be a
00:49:20.740
waste of a race that is easily winnable, especially if the polling as usual is really wrong in
00:49:27.380
Ohio and JD Vance wins that state by eight points.
00:49:31.020
If he does, then, you know, Kaptur would be having a very difficult time holding on very
00:49:36.420
Let's, but, um, you know, let's jump to, uh, let's jump to, let's jump to, let's jump
00:49:41.480
to Pennsylvania and let's, I've got, uh, Jim Bognit in Pennsylvania eight is a toss-up versus
00:49:52.460
Uh, and Jeremy Schaefer versus Chris Deluzio, Pennsylvania 17, another toss-up.
00:50:03.240
And in seven, I think Scheller is, uh, probably favored.
00:50:07.180
I think it's fair to say that one leans Republican.
00:50:09.200
The other two really are toss-ups and it will matter how, uh, how, uh, you know, Oz and Doug
00:50:16.620
Generically, the Pennsylvania, the generic ballot in Republican, uh, is Republican in Pennsylvania.
00:50:23.620
Uh, you know, those two are the ones who would benefit from that the most.
00:50:27.560
They were running a little bit behind Trump though.
00:50:31.720
And generically, Republicans were running a little bit, uh, behind Donald Trump statewide.
00:50:38.140
Uh, so that concerns, that should concern Republicans a little bit.
00:50:42.680
But again, if the, you know, if it's undecided people, Peter, there, uh, that are willing to
00:50:48.840
say they'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024, if they get to the polls and it's highly likely
00:50:54.380
they're going to vote for the Republican in the congressional district.
00:50:56.700
Both, both Bognet and Schaefer are worth doing.
00:50:59.700
Does Mastriano, is he, is he, uh, is he close enough to win now?
00:51:06.660
I understand what people, you know, that, that I, I told people Oz definitely had, uh, the
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