On the heels of the January 6th rioting in the streets of Washington, D.C., we look at the similarities between Antifa's tactics and those of the Black Lives Matter movement and the protests that took place that day.
00:10:27.520But the constant number is around the 40 percent for Mastriano.
00:10:31.060And another constant number is that there's a not a small part of registered Republicans that are at least saying they're going to support Shapiro.
00:10:40.820The difference in your poll and everybody else, you're the first one to show Shapiro significantly below the 50 percent.
00:11:27.440Now, when they get in the voting booth, are they going to vote straight ticket red and blue?
00:11:30.480Like, probably more than in what they tell us in the poll.
00:11:34.760But, you know, he's just not anywhere near a majority yet in our in our poll.
00:11:40.120And I can you know what gets interesting and kind of anchors this is when you look at some of the other questions that we ask that show that this poll, from our perspective, isn't an outlier with our polling.
00:11:51.180So another big headline here is it isn't the one I led with, but the Republican candidates are struggling.
00:11:58.020Generic ballots pretty much tied up in Pennsylvania.
00:12:00.160But Trump's winning over Biden rematch by six points.
00:12:03.600And that matched the same trend that we've been talking about, you and me, with Trump outperforms in generic ballot.
00:12:10.100Generic ballot outperforms the Republican candidates.
00:12:13.460And it's you know, there's room for the Republican candidates to do better.
00:12:18.120You know, it could be there haven't been enough ads run.
00:12:20.760It could be there isn't the name recognition yet.
00:12:22.800Yet we're not saying in our polls, like, do you want to vote for Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate?
00:12:29.660So there is that aspect to it in the midterm election.
00:12:32.660But then you get into, like, if the person doesn't even know what candidates are for the, you know, the top two ticket, you know, people on the ballot.
00:12:42.080Talk to me about the Senate race, the cyborg versus Dr. Oz.
00:12:48.500So we have Fetterman with 45 and Oz with 43, two point race within the margin of error and otherwise a pretty, you know, pretty similar to the governor race.
00:13:03.580So there's still a relatively high level of not sure.
00:13:06.120But the candidates have, you know, better recognition, presumably.
00:13:09.460Not as many, you know, crossover voters.
00:13:13.580This one's a little bit more partisan, although there is still a decent amount of crossover voters.
00:13:18.240And they're pretty much, you know, tied among independents.
00:13:22.520And so to me, doing some of the same math I did with the previous show, the most interesting part is like, OK, Trump does really well in Pennsylvania now.
00:13:32.000And we asked some questions to give some inkling, you know, why that's happening.
00:13:54.860And I can look at the Trump lead and compare it to the lead that, you know, Dr. Oz doesn't have over Fetterman.
00:14:05.120Oz is doing eight points worse and he's doing nine points worse among men, 20 points worse than Trump among younger voters, just like Nevada.
00:14:14.100And seven points worse among white voters, 32 points worse than Trump among Hispanic voters, 11 points.
00:15:01.480When your nation's supposed authority on economic policy completely misses the flashing red lights of impending inflation.
00:15:09.700Now, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has finally admitted, quote, there's been an unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that affected our economy badly that I didn't at the time fully understand.
00:17:33.420Let me, just not looking at Rasmussen, but looking at other, you know, polling that's coming out, particularly the big shifts, the right track, wrong tracks, generic ballots, all that.
00:17:46.320Give us the Rasmussen take on where they see things overall.
00:17:49.240Oh, Steve, I don't follow the other pollsters.
00:17:51.540You know, the swings, we're usually out front when there's a swing.
00:17:54.620Part of that is because we do a lot of daily polling where other people don't with the daily presidential tracking.
00:17:59.400Here's a scoop, president's approval, Biden's approval.
00:18:03.240We've had a little bit higher than other pollsters recently over the last couple months.
00:18:07.360I think we accurately picked up this sort of abortion swing.
00:18:10.560His approval's starting to drop this week again, going back down to where it was, you know, 40 and maybe even a little lower.
00:18:18.240But as far as election indicators, I haven't seen anything breaking major, but I'd say that most of those indicators were somewhat positive for the Republicans.
00:18:25.520So here's still the things the Republicans have in their quiver.
00:18:29.500They have a comfortable lead, again, on the generic ballot still, right?
00:18:34.160They have pretty low right direction, wrong track numbers.
00:18:38.120Are they much lower than they've been throughout all of Biden's term?
00:18:59.860And I think to me, one of the key ones, you know, especially looking at the Pennsylvania polls, especially looking with how many undecided independents there are and people that just aren't sure about these candidates, is that we retested it again last week.
00:19:14.720And nationwide, Republicans still have an enthusiasm edge.
00:19:19.560And so what I mean by that is we ask everybody, national voters, how excited are you about voting in the midterms?
00:19:27.280And among people that say very excited, the Republicans had, I think it was a six point lead over Democrats.
00:19:32.960And that doesn't sound like much, but it's a real signal because in 2018, we asked very similar questions and it was exactly the same across parties.
00:19:43.220So to me, that's the biggest standout indicator.
00:19:46.200And it's like get excited about voting.
00:19:48.460Get other people excited about voting, right?
00:21:35.860I think the most important top line number, Steve, is when you look at the real clear political average, they've got their site where they track races.
00:21:46.700And I think I sent that over to Cameron if they've got the latest House shifts, including moving our America First champion, Caroline Leavitt, into the lean Republican column from a toss-up.
00:21:56.860But, again, since October 1st, Steve, the independent ratings have shifted 22 seats, all of them towards the Republican Party.
00:22:06.040And so that is, frankly, we've never seen that type of momentum in October when it really matters.
00:22:11.500But we're seeing more than just that, Steve.
00:22:13.380We're seeing Democrats, obviously, in free fall, Sean Patrick Baloney completely imploding, now diverting money from the National Democrat Party to shore up the fourth, actually, I guess the fifth-in-charge Democrat out of all 200 and whatever they have.
00:22:28.640So we've never seen them in type of danger like that before, and you're going to start seeing them chomping at the bit.
00:22:47.940Obviously, mail ballots are out across the board.
00:22:49.860And we're seeing a significant enthusiasm advantage towards Republicans in some areas up to 10 points.
00:22:56.700And why that's important for the audience is you look at these polls, Steve, and you have Republicans leading on the generic ballot by three or four points.
00:23:03.760And that's usually when the polling sample favors Democrats by about five or six points.
00:23:08.240And so when you then kind of recalculate the poll based off of enthusiasm, so obviously if there are more Republicans saying they're more likely to vote and more enthusiastic to vote, then that electorate sample will change.
00:23:21.320And that is when you start getting really, really deep.
00:23:24.300Nate Cohen at the New York Times came out today and said, if Republicans overperformed, moved the numbers by seven points, I believe – I think he said we could pick up 50 seats.
00:23:45.900Real clear politics, and looking at the average poll, they have shifted 22 seats in total, and all of those to Republicans, to the Republican side.
00:23:55.080I think they're – when you look at their average, isn't real clear politics right now pointing towards a 47-seat pickup?
00:24:04.440They think the range is anywhere between 12 to 47, exactly, averaging 29.5.
00:24:10.380And if you look up there, you can kind of see they already have baked in the House, flipping, and then you've got the 35 swing seats in addition, and then some lean Republican – sorry, lean Democrat, which we're actually leaning or tied in many of those lean Democrat and likely Democrat seats.
00:24:26.540All of these races are either up, down, within the margins, tied, with about 15 to 20 seats banked for Republicans at this point is what we see.
00:24:34.700So it's really going to come critical down to some of those top 74 targeted seats, which you can see at redwave2022.com and get a readout on how those seats are organized based off President Trump's margins.
00:25:11.680So what he said was if every district finishes seven points better than the 2020 presidential election result, Republicans would come away with 259 seats and almost 50 seat net gain and the largest Republican majority in over 100 years.
00:26:10.840In fact, it's actually turning out to be using against them, as we talked about in the show, Steve.
00:26:15.300They have no answer for what limits they want on abortions.
00:26:18.760And the American people are against that, overwhelmingly, actually.
00:26:22.480No, the issue set has created on them.
00:26:25.300January 6th, people don't want to hear about.
00:26:27.780And the abortion thing is you're absolutely correct because Katie Hobbs and these people, and they're sitting there going, there's no limit at all.
00:26:34.100That's actually gotten to be a positive.
00:26:36.000They don't have one issue that they can stand on right now.
00:26:39.280And our issue set, that's where they're going to get more and more vicious.
00:26:42.920What about the Politico story that they're having problems with African-Americans turning out?
00:26:47.920They're having problems with Hispanics turning out?
00:26:50.680You're seeing this in the Stacey Abrams problem in Georgia.
00:26:53.500She looks like she could get blown out, Alex DeGrasse.
00:26:57.540I mean, they have a massive enthusiasm issue.
00:27:00.240The Democrats don't have a reason to go vote.
00:27:03.120Their core constituencies are not enthusiastic.
00:27:06.180That's why a lot of this noise is out there, Steve.
00:27:08.180They're running a fear-mongering campaign because they're running from behind, and they have to energize their own base to get them to the polls because they're not going to turn out.
00:27:17.040Young people are less likely to vote than ever before.
00:27:19.640Those are traditionally Democrat voters, obviously African-Americans and Hispanics, many of them coming over to vote for Republicans and giving us a solid look.
00:27:28.260Again, like I said, in our battleground seat, Steve, we're essentially leading with Hispanics.
00:31:53.440Elise and I, we've been out all over upstate New York, and we've been doing these huge rallies for Lee and for other Republican candidates, Steve.
00:33:18.520You can email team at EliseForCongress.com.
00:33:21.900Team at EliseForCongress, we've got nice ladies and gentlemen on there answering emails and connecting about prospective volunteers with their campaigns.
00:33:29.640Team at Elise volunteers are making hundreds of thousands of calls a week nationwide into New York for these critical battleground seats.
00:33:37.480We would love to get you on the phones, love to get you calling voters in these battleground seats.
00:34:09.020And get everyone out to flood the polls in person because we have the ability to change history here and secure the republic for a generation, frankly, and obviously save their state.
00:34:19.760No, no, you can – this is the destruction of the Democratic Party as a national political institution.
00:34:24.180It'll take them a decade, a decade of infighting.
00:34:27.840If you've ever dreamed of this, if you've ever complained about it, if you ever bitched and moaned about it, now's the time that actually it's right there in front of you.
00:41:52.220But remember, if we see Democrats lose two weeks from now, you have to assume that some of the president's economic advisers will have to shoulder some of the blame.
00:42:03.320Janet Yellen herself, along with the rest of the administration, was keen to say a year ago, I interviewed her.
00:42:55.260And as we'll get in, they're so unserious, they're talking about increasing spending in the lame duck session, raising the debt ceiling, right?
00:43:05.480And then Biden says that will reduce inflation, right?
00:43:12.780Dave Brad, the dean of the business school down at Liberty, former congressman, is going to join us after the break.
00:43:18.020We're going to get into more economics capital markets next in the war room.
00:43:22.320If you want to know what the left's real plan is for your kids, just look at the reaction to the work Patriot Mobile did in multiple school districts in the great state of Texas.
00:43:49.000Patriot Mobile is America's only Christian conservative mobile phone provider and a force for conservative values.
00:43:56.860This is because they take a portion of your bill and fund conservative causes and candidates who believe in the sanctity of life, freedom of speech, the Second Amendment, and guess what?
00:46:04.120But very quickly, and I said this this morning with Ed Henry this morning on the morning show, I spent a few minutes with him and said, look, you're going to have this orgy of beyond spending.
00:46:21.860The Democrats, if we do our job, they're going to be gone for a decade.
00:46:52.940And that is what's called the lame duck.
00:46:54.420And we got to get to the ramparts because on Sunday morning when he woke up, the Hill newspaper, which everybody goes to on Sunday morning,
00:47:00.740to check out what's the big political thing before the talk shows, it was not about the horse races, not about the right track, wrong track, nothing had to do with the debt ceiling.
00:47:12.000That is a signal, ladies and gentlemen.
00:52:12.700What Xi Jinping, totally in charge, gets rid of the number two guy, Li Gecheng, and then removes Hu Jintao, another senior leader, just humiliates him in public.
00:52:23.860So they make a full move, a full ideological move to full-on Marxism in writing.
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