On today's show, President Obama speaks on the current state of the economy and the economy's impact on inflation and interest rates. He also talks about how important it is to remember who we are as a country and what we need to do to protect our democracy.
00:00:00.080We know that more and more ballots are cast in early voting or by mail in America.
00:00:05.860We know that many states don't start counting those ballots until after the polls close on November 8th.
00:00:13.260That means in some cases we won't know the winner of the election for a few days, until a few days after the election.
00:00:21.200Rates are going to continue to go up for the foreseeable future.
00:00:24.540And in fact, the market has been increasing its expectation of where it thinks rates are going.
00:00:28.820And as you can see on the last chart that I have, which shows you back when back last August.
00:00:34.600There we go. Back last August, you can see that the market thought rates would peak early next year at about three and a quarter percent.
00:00:41.540We're actually been ratcheting that up. Rates are now likely to peak more like above five percent and not until sometime in the latter part of next year.
00:00:49.400And this has real implications for Americans, of course. Mortgage rates are now over seven percent.
00:00:53.720That's another thing that politically we have to deal with.
00:00:57.240Good for savers, but very bad for borrowers like people who are trying to buy a home.
00:01:01.640It takes time to count all legitimate ballots in a legal and orderly manner.
00:01:07.540It's always been important for citizens in democracy to be informed and engaged.
00:01:12.580Now it's important for citizens to be patient as well.
00:01:16.180Well, that's how it's supposed to work.
00:01:21.140This is also the first election since the events of January 6th when the armed, angry mob stormed the U.S. Capitol.
00:01:29.480I wish I wish I could say the assault on a democracy to end it that day, but I cannot.
00:01:35.280As I stand here today, there are candidates running for every level of office in America, for governor, Congress, attorney general, secretary of state, who won't commit.
00:01:48.360They will not commit to accepting the results of elections that they're running in.
00:02:31.500Look, trying to engineer a reduction in inflation from these levels down to the 2% that the Fed wants is a bit like landing a big jetliner on an aircraft carrier.
00:02:42.300And so I think the Fed chairman, who's lost some credibility over inflation, he was in that whole transitory camp for a while, is now starting to talk more realistically about what's likely to come.
00:02:58.720You have to also recognize the Biden administration missed it.
00:03:01.620You have to recognize that Jay Powell was up for reappointment about a year or so ago, and the White House was signaling that they thought inflation was going to come down.
00:03:10.800And I think Jay Powell is a team player.
00:03:13.440And I think there are a lot of people.
00:03:42.860And so you had sensible people saying that we haven't had inflation for 40 years so we can put two and a half trillion dollars into the economy.
00:04:47.200May God bless those standing guard over our democracy.
00:04:50.980How much worse would inflation have been, though, if Build Back Better had passed in the huge form that the Biden administration originally tried to get it through?
00:05:01.080Yeah, you have to say that Congress saved the president from himself.
00:06:34.960And look, the one thing they had wronged about the Republicans on this show with Cortez and Navarro and myself and Bratt and Jason Trenner and others, Philip Patrick and Birch Gold, said back in, what was it, February, March of 2021, when they had the American recovery act, that the aggregate demand problem had been solved.
00:06:55.260And this was going to turbocharge inflation.
00:07:00.840Yesterday, you had, and we'll have Cortez on at five.
00:07:14.120And this is also the Fed reaching out to MAGA to say, hey, look, we understand what's going to happen next Tuesday, and we're actually on your side, so we're going to give a 75 basis point pop today to let you know that we're on the team.
00:07:29.180This is going to have massive implications down range.
00:07:32.460I'm going to play Lisa Abramowitz, who I think is one of the smartest people in the world, play over Bloomberg, just a brilliant, her analysis of where we are in the world and what implication.
00:07:42.780But even CNN, Steve Collinson, who's Stephen Collinson, the smartest guy they got over at CNN, and a guy that hates Trump and hates MAGA even more, just said, hey, it was absolutely the wrong speech because he doesn't address the nation.
00:07:58.380In fact, if I can pull up – the RNC did a great job on the research.
00:08:01.820If I can pull up the RNC's tweet, you go through everything the nation's – remember, this is the guy's closing argument.
00:08:44.140He's so detached from where the country is.
00:08:47.080He's so detached where the American people are from or where we are today.
00:08:51.580But you got it with both barrels on Morning Joe.
00:08:54.480They understand they're going to be blamed for what happens on Tuesday when we have – if we all deliver and become force multipliers in the next couple of days and make sure we secure the vote.
00:09:05.020By the way, Biden's gaslighting you right there by telling you it's going to take a week to count them because we've got to figure out – we have to figure out, like in 2020, market lies.
00:09:13.520We've got to be able to figure out how many votes we have to have to turn this thing around, and then we know all the mail-in ballots with no signatures, no dates, no nothing, right, in Pennsylvania, just to drop a couple of random states, like in Pennsylvania or in Michigan, right, or even in Arizona.
00:10:05.640Do you want to play this game with the Federal Reserve?
00:10:07.460Because that's ultimately what you're asking.
00:10:09.120Are you going to call their bluff and say ultimately you can't do this?
00:10:12.600Well, the more people do that, the further the Fed has to go, right?
00:10:16.100So it kind of has a self-fulfilling prophecy against you.
00:10:19.040There is a larger question, right, which I think is actually expressed in the bond market.
00:10:23.400If you believe that the Fed will lack the political will to ultimately do what needs to be done to bring inflation back down to 2 percent, then you do not want to get long, long treasuries.
00:10:31.820Because right now you cannot be certain that those yields are going to come down materially in the way that so many people had thought.
00:10:36.740And that might be one of the distinguishing features that people are kind of trying to grapple with right now.
00:10:42.240Sometimes we make it, I think, a little bit more complicated than it is.
00:10:45.660I remember in the last 10 years you just had some very simple statements from some hyper bullish people who just basically said the Federal Reserve is telling you what they want.
00:14:06.220When your nation's supposed authority on economic policy completely misses the flashing red lights of impending inflation.
00:14:14.920Now, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has finally admitted, quote,
00:14:19.880there's been an unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices
00:14:24.900and supply bottlenecks that affected our economy badly that I didn't, at the time, fully understand, end quote.
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00:15:31.140War Room, Pandemic, with Stephen K. Bannon.
00:15:35.160The epidemic is a demon, and we cannot let this demon hide.
00:15:38.960War Room, Pandemic. Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon.
00:15:45.240Okay, it's a tale of one city in two speeches.
00:15:48.320One given early in the afternoon about capital markets affected the world, the other by the guy that's supposed to be president of the United States.
00:15:59.560If you pull up the RNC tweet first, if you get the RNC tweet, the RNC tweet, it goes to a punch list, a punch list of everything he should have talked about or mentioned.
00:16:48.920And what the Fed chair just told you, because of your policies, it's going to get worse.
00:16:53.600By next summer, the commercial real estate business will be collapsed.
00:16:58.600The residential housing market will collapse.
00:17:02.680The construction market will collapse.
00:17:06.360Unemployment will be raging everywhere because of your actions.
00:17:09.820And you're going to sit there and tell me – the armed and angry mob you're talking about is going to be guys going to the Federal Reserve outside, the temple down there.
00:17:19.080That's going to be the armed and angry mob because of your policies.
00:17:23.360Tierman, I think we've solved the security problem.
00:17:28.140Talk to us – give us a couple of minutes on capital markets before we go to Brazil.
00:17:33.560The last time I saw my phone do exactly that was two years ago in the month when I was covering Hunter Biden and your friend and mine, the Southern District, decided to play enforcement agent on our wrong thing.
00:17:46.060Yeah, you know, the elephant in the room in the market – and they're not talking about it because it's so indicts, the entire system, that they are all part of, whether they're cheerleading or whether they're criticizing.
00:17:59.200That is 13 years of zero interest rate, the ultimate capital market heroin addiction, the punch bowl, euphemistically, has been taken away.
00:18:10.120And they have flooded the capital markets in the West and globally with zero-cost capital and excess liquidity.
00:18:20.200That is going to take years, and they are going to make a choice.
00:18:24.360They're going to have to make a choice.
00:18:25.380Will they continue to raise rates to sop it up so that we don't end up in a serious stagflation that's got optionality on a Weimar, Germany-like economy?
00:18:34.740Or do they go with the short-term politically expedient move, which is start cutting rates again so as to try and swing the election in 2024?
00:18:42.040Now, previous Fed chiefs have been hyper-politicized.
00:18:46.460Jerome Powell is politicized but not hyper-politicized.
00:18:50.020And he knows that if he continues Bernanke's unholy experiment of unlimited balance sheet expansion, we're screwed.
00:18:58.320There will be riots in the street for food.
00:19:03.940If you've noted, when we've talked about, over the last year or two, about the structure of global finance is structured and built around zero interest rates or negative interest rates, this is what Tierman's talking about.
00:19:16.180The entire system is built upon a heroin addiction of easy money, of free money, essentially for the powerful and the wealthy, free money.
00:19:27.000You didn't participate in the upside of that, but baby, let me tell you something.
00:19:33.540You're about to get it with both barrels on the downside.
00:19:36.680When Cortez says, hey, in the Weimar Republic, at least they were homogenous society.
00:20:07.400You know, he may think he has to live with it, but when the people come and try to daffy him and rip him limb from limb in the street because the destabilization of society based on unstable prices and shortages of goods, i.e. food, that has real-world implication.
00:20:25.300And, you know, who benefited from the free money?
00:20:29.120Silicon Valley, who could prop up their zombie venture companies.
00:20:34.640Dogwalker.com, number seven, raising capital.
00:20:38.180Big investment bank, who could bring these companies public for huge fees.
00:20:43.580Hedge funds who did not pay capital for any cost of capital for their intraday trading leverage and their prime brokerage costs.
00:20:50.780No, you've got, by the way, there's a thing in zero hedge I'm going to talk about this afternoon with, they got, we've got another problem with the derivatives.
00:20:59.200This was the real problem with the, with the England situation with trusts.
00:21:03.280It exposed the pension funds have been playing the game of massive leverage and derivatives to juice their returns because in a zero interest rate environment, they couldn't make the, you know, they couldn't make their, uh, their table, right?
00:21:26.960You're about to see this is, I'm telling you.
00:21:28.900And yesterday was capitulation Lisa Abramowitz of Bloomberg said, Hey, the fed basically just told you, they don't, not in control of this.
00:21:36.640They inflate the, they've printed so much money over so many decades.
00:21:41.140And they've particularly since 2008 had a negative interest rates and blown up the balance sheet of the federal reserve for liquidity for the wealthy and the powerful.
00:21:52.220And you know, when you, when you say don't fight the fed, you know, this macro policy, 12 unelected bureaucrats appointed just to set the cost of capital, most important economic signal in the market that really shows supply and demand and economic growth.
00:22:04.020Uh, the amount of pain that we should have felt in 2008 and nine was off put to where we're going in 2008 or nine, we had an over leverage in the banking system.
00:22:46.880We got to deliver and, uh, the radical democratic party, the fed, we're going to break the back of the fed, any touching of the, um, the debt ceiling.
00:22:56.960Let me put this warning shot across them right now.
00:25:00.340That's where the concentration of wealth is so in this country and Bernie Sanders,
00:25:04.040the fact that you haven't been going after this from day one, I want every left wing populace to join our crusade because Bernie Sanders ain't tough enough to take this on.
00:25:13.880You see how tough enough we were to take Biden on, take these radical Democrats on, to take corporations on, and now we're going to take on the freaking Federal Reserve because the system of these Wall Street banks and the Larry Finks of the world and the Federal Reserve, it is insanity.