Stephen Kamb breaks down the results of the UK general election, and talks about the rise of the far-right Freedom Party in the Netherlands. He's joined by journalist Sid Lukasen to discuss this and much more.
00:00:55.000It's Friday, 5th of July and Dormini, 2024.
00:01:02.000Big news today is the results of the UK general election.
00:01:08.000Sir Keir Starmer is now Prime Minister.
00:01:12.000Rishi Sunak has announced he'll be standing down as leader of the Conservative Party.
00:01:17.000I think the headline figures will be going, hopefully, to Raheem and Ben Burkram, who are presently with Nigel Farage, member of parliament, at a press conference.
00:01:32.000And we'll be going to them at some point if we can resolve a couple of technical issues first.
00:01:37.000But I thought I'd just quickly break down what I think of the immediate takeaways on this.
00:01:43.000But for me, the first statistic is this, of importance, that Reform UK, a new party formed not so long ago, wasn't even around at the last general election, came second to the Labour Party in 90 seats out of 650, which is a phenomenal result.
00:02:26.000This is all a consequence of the first-past-the-post system that we have in the UK and that you have in America as well.
00:02:35.000And in fact, by the way, I'll interrupt myself to say that, Nigel Farage has just come out and called for electoral reform in the UK.
00:02:43.000And there are a number of other smaller parties that have been pushing the electoral reform issue for quite some time.
00:02:49.000We'll find out whether they're going to be able to work together on that.
00:02:53.000Four million votes, that's about 42%, 43% of what the Labour Party got, came out with, for reform, four seats.
00:03:01.000So they got about 40%, 45% of the votes that Labour had, and they came out with less than a hundredth of the parliamentary representation.
00:03:10.000Less votes than reform, 3.5 million votes for the Liberal Democrats, the traditional progressive-ish, or radically woke progressive-ish traditional third party in UK politics.
00:03:47.000And that is in the Netherlands, because we're following this populist nationalist movement as it's breaking waves right across the European continent.
00:03:56.000Over in the Netherlands, Kurt Wilders, who has been under armed guard for 20 years in fear of his life from Islamic militants, has for the first time broken through this cordon sanitaire.
00:04:15.000And we'll be discussing what exactly that is in just a few moments.
00:04:18.000He's broken through this pushing to one side by the mainstream parties.
00:04:25.000And they're portioning out of 15 ministerial seats in the Netherlands.
00:04:44.000Could you just sort of break down for the war room posse?
00:04:49.000How important is this after years of trying to not even recognize the existence of Kurt Wilders, all the popular support behind it?
00:04:59.000This guy now has five out of 15 ministerial positions.
00:05:03.000How important is this in the Netherlands?
00:05:07.000And what does it mean for the next five years?
00:05:11.000Hi, thank you so much for inviting me into the program.
00:05:16.000Yeah, I'm happy to be of service and elucidate the situation for you.
00:05:20.000So in the Netherlands, we have different chambers where the representation of the public takes place.
00:05:26.000The most important which one is the Tweede Kamer.
00:05:31.000So it's the House of Parliament, where the people have a directly representative system.
00:05:36.000So unlike the United States and unlike the UK, you need an X amount of votes to get a seat.
00:05:43.000So the total amount of seats is then divided by the total amount of votes.
00:05:49.000So it's a representative system in a way.
00:05:52.000And Geert Wilders made a huge win in the elections.
00:05:57.000He does not have an absolute majority.
00:05:59.000Because for an absolute majority, you would need 75 or 76 out of 150 seats, which never happened and never happened before in the history of the Dutch Parliament.
00:06:09.000However, he's very close to a big majority.
00:06:17.000And then there were opinion polls recently where Geert Wilders' PVV, Partij voor de Vrijheid, Freedom Party, went as much as up to one third of the votes.
00:06:27.000So in recent opinion polls, even after the election.
00:06:31.000So after the elections, when negotiations about the government started, he became even more popular.
00:06:36.000The people recognized that Geert Wilders, instead of just trying to be polarizing, now wanted to be constructive.
00:06:42.000He actually set forth to become part of a governing coalition together with other right-wing parties.
00:06:48.000He wants to actually take initiative, take responsibility to form a government, which is what many people actually found that quite surprising.
00:06:56.000As normally PVV, it's considered kind of a cult, given that Geert Wilders is the only member of his party and all the others who carry official functions for the party are basically only doing this on personal courtesy,
00:07:10.000personal mandates of personal mandates of Geert Wilders as he is the only member of his party.
00:07:14.000So it gave quite some troubles in setting up this government and actually appointing these ministries.
00:07:26.000I guess his reasoning is, in order to be absolutely sure that he has control over this political movement that he has started, he founded, and that is very much in his own image, in order not for there to be some kind of coup at some point in the future, that is the reason why he is the only member of this party.
00:07:47.000It means that he is totally secure now, and that the deep state won't be able to make an approach to one of his parliamentary colleagues to try and stab him in the back and assume the mantle of leadership.
00:08:09.000Because what happened is that his governing coalition party, which is the Farmers Party, the party for a new social contract, and the Liberal Party, which is three coalition friends parties,
00:08:21.000they actually banned Geert Wilders from becoming the new prime minister.
00:08:26.000So they had to push someone other than Geert.
00:08:29.000Even though Geert won the elections, the parties that he is in a coalition with don't want him to be the official leader of the cabinet.
00:08:37.000They don't want him to be the premier of the Netherlands.
00:08:44.000Because it does mean that the leaders of the political parties stay in parliament to control their coalition government,
00:08:50.000which means that they actually have to profile themselves more ideological.
00:08:53.000So I suppose that this means that Geert Wilders does not become the new premier, that he has to make discussions more ideological,
00:09:00.000more about party programs, which is a different break with Dutch politics thus far.
00:09:05.000But instead they appointed as premier a former member of the Labour Party, who gave up his leadership some time ago,
00:09:13.000and it was actually the member of the secret services.
00:09:16.000So now the new premier of the Netherlands, called Dick Schoof, is actually the former chief of the military security agency and also the Dutch secret intelligence services.
00:09:27.000So normally you would expect something like this as someone actually has the power behind the curtain, the deep state, the CIA, the FBI and so on.
00:09:36.000Or Putin in Russia, for instance, KGB, former KGB.
00:09:40.000You would expect that sort of thing not to happen in a Western democracy.
00:09:44.000But actually now, yes, the former head of secret services is now suddenly a head of Dutch cabinet, a new prime minister of the Netherlands.
00:09:53.000And another member that Geert Wilders actually had and wanted to push forward, Gidi Markersauer.
00:09:58.000Geert Wilders got a file apparently by the secret services that listed some things about this guy, Gidi Markersauer,
00:10:06.000that apparently he was in touch with Israeli intelligence.
00:10:12.000And then Geert Wilders looked at this file that he got from secret services and said, oh, no, I cannot put him forward for minister any longer.
00:10:19.000So he had to actually retract one of his minister's suggestions and put other people in favor and suggest other candidates for this position.
00:10:27.000So there actually is a lot of influence of the deep state, the Dutch secret services intelligence society on the formation of this cabinet.
00:10:36.000It's actually very unprecedented in Dutch politics that this happens.
00:10:41.000Normally, it's much more politicized that it's people who are already serving as city councilor or serving as a deputy in provinces or so on,
00:10:48.000that all these people are put forward for ministerial positions, people with a distinct political profile.
00:10:53.000But because Geert Wilders doesn't really have a party, he's a one man party, he has to get people from other positions.
00:11:00.000So that's why suddenly they're now Dick Schoof, former member of former head of secret services,
00:11:06.000who is suddenly being pushed forward, candidated as a head of government.
00:11:10.000Just to be precise, I was asking about the fact that Geert Wilders is the only member now of the PVV.
00:11:20.000That means there's no one in the party that can remove it.
00:11:23.000Like, for example, there was in what is now the last parliament in the UK, Boris Johnson resigned as leader of the party
00:11:38.000because he was going to be no confidence by the parliamentary party.
00:11:43.000Having lost the position of leader of the party, it was then inevitable that he would cease to be prime minister if he hadn't resigned as prime minister.
00:18:26.000And it's one of the characteristics of a parliamentary system is that it's less difficult to affect wholesale change because you essentially have a single vote.
00:18:35.000You vote nationally and has all sorts of repercussions.
00:18:38.000And as Zannie pointed out, what's so interesting about this vote is if you add up the Tories and the Farage's reform movement, the conservatives, if you count them all as conservatives, were pretty competitive with labor.
00:18:51.000It was really a lot of this was the characteristics of the British voting system.
00:22:56.000This is the Guardian here saying that the new Dutch government's sworn in amid concerns over far-right ministers.
00:23:05.000There seems to be – this is something that we do on the war room.
00:23:09.000We do follow the populist nationalist wave as we have been doing for years,
00:23:15.000as it breaks across the various countries in continental Europe.
00:23:23.000And we look at the similarities, the commonalities, and the common denominator in all of these populist nationalist movements is immigration.
00:23:33.000That is a fundamental issue that binds these various iterations together, these non-establishment right, centre-right parties together.
00:23:45.000But we also look at the differences, and if – just in a couple of minutes, can you just sort of – it is my instinct that when the Guardian says that the Freedom Party is right-wing, I think that's really missing the point.
00:23:58.000Look, is it true that Kurt Bilders isn't – I mean, he's not like, for example, Giorgio Maloney here in Italy.
00:24:06.000He doesn't have a background within the reformed fascist movement.
00:24:12.000This guy seems to me to be a progressive liberal who entered politics because he saw in militant Islam a threat against the liberal values that motivate him.
00:34:54.000It's that the Tory vote absolutely imploded.
00:34:57.000The Tory party's vote has absolutely imploded.
00:35:01.000And I think if you're going to say, well, what conclusions do you draw from that?
00:35:06.000I would say it's basically that the British people have rejected a notional centre-right party that has the attitude that we will tell you what we are going to give you.
00:35:19.000What you might want is immaterial to us.
00:35:22.000We will tell you what we're going to give you.
00:37:33.000You've got the Green Party with four and they are full on net zero crazy environmental activists.
00:37:40.000They know what they want to do and they will drive ahead.
00:37:43.000Reform also know what they want to do.
00:37:45.000And why do I think this is different than any other time?
00:37:49.000I think it's different in that Nigel, you've got a leader who is charismatic, who engages with the people and has gone, has done, has got the party where they are in six weeks.
00:38:01.000So in six weeks ago, they had, what, eight percent in the polls, maybe.
00:38:29.000And because I think it's something different, because of the situation we find ourselves in, that there is no solution for the mess we're in.
00:38:39.000And the crazy woke ideology, the pendulum having swung too far, I think, certainly on the trans ideology and reform or common sense, they're calling it as it is.
00:38:50.000The issue in the UK is we have tribal voting.
00:38:53.000And we don't have, we have stuck with that uni party of left and more left, of red and blue, Labour Conservative.
00:39:01.000And generally, people haven't moved away from that.
00:39:03.000In some elections, we've had 88 percent voting for that block.
00:39:08.000We now have a new game in town, rebranded from the Brexit party.
00:39:13.000And Nigel's used social media better than anyone else.
00:39:16.000I mean, the hits that Nigel has had on social media is like three times more than the other parties have had together.
00:39:44.000No matter how good Nigel may be, if he doesn't have a team behind him that can actually have 650 candidates running across the country, that can actually run a media campaign, that can actually hit home with the voters.
00:39:56.000If you don't have that, then actually you won't get anywhere.
00:40:56.000In the two minutes that we've got left, before we go to the break, do you think there's a sort of a parallel between how, on the central right of the political spectrum, you have a charismatic leader that is bringing people into, reinvigorating people and bringing them into a movement, in the same way that Donald Trump is.
00:41:14.000In the same way that Donald Trump is doing in the United States.
00:41:30.000And in that battle on the right, the Tories have utterly failed.
00:41:33.000No matter who they put in, I cannot see them winning against Nigel, even if they put put Kemi Patnock in, who's wonderful on many issues, but turned on Nigel.
00:42:51.000I'm going to come back, though, and I'm going to ask you the question now, OK?
00:42:55.000In the same way that Brexit prefigured in 2015, prefigured the Trump victory in 2016, do you see any potential parallel between this huge result that he's achieved?
00:45:17.000So, look, do you think there is a parallel between Nigel Farage's incredible result yesterday and a possible, hopeful, presumed Donald Trump's super victory in November in the same way that Brexit heralded Trump's first electoral win?
00:45:40.000I think so, but I think as amazing Brexit was and the hard fought battle, long time to win that.
00:46:26.000That was done in six weeks, putting together.
00:46:29.000So imagine what is going to come to play, to play by 2029.
00:46:34.000So there's a great ground game for Nigel to play.
00:46:38.000And Nigel said he wanted to look at the US elections in November.
00:46:43.000Initially, he was not going to get involved in the UK because he sees that those elections in the US are pivotal, not only to those in the US, but to us in the UK and to Europe.
00:46:57.000And to Europe, in fact, worldwide for the Western civilization.
00:47:01.000And I don't think it's saying it too strongly.
00:47:04.000The vote in America to make sure Donald Trump gets back in the White House is seismic.
00:47:11.000And I think this in the UK, Nigel has done something huge.
00:47:33.000And with this vote, 4 million, 14 and a half percent.
00:47:38.000He has done that from a standing start in six weeks.
00:47:41.000And I think that preceded by the vote across Europe actually leads into those US elections in November.
00:47:50.000And I think it's really exciting because President Trump can have a connection, a bridge with Europe that he did not have whenever he was president the first time.
00:48:02.000So now with those brighter populism, if we see Marine Le Pen doing very well in France, you think at FPO in Austria top, you've got obviously Orban being the man over in Hungary.
00:48:16.000You've got George Maloney understanding how the game is played and I think has played it fairly well, although maybe slower than we would have wanted.
00:48:23.000But actually all those figures across Europe and then the FD in Germany, that means that blocks that blocking in Europe because I'll do with the groupings.
00:48:32.000That means there is a launch pad, a connection with Europe, with the US that there wasn't before.
00:48:39.000And I think President Trump going into the White House in January, he is going to have a relationship and a connection with Europe that he did not have before.
00:48:52.000And of course, we'll see what happens with Nigel being in Westminster.
00:48:57.000Well, the last time Trump was not afforded a proper visit to the UK, it was downgraded.
00:49:05.000Well, I think Nigel will maybe just invite him over, give him a tour of Parliament.
00:49:10.000They understand politics like few others in the Western world.
00:49:14.000That connection is intriguing, not only in a friendship level, but in a vision level for what we need to see for countries.
00:49:22.000And I think, yes, what we're seeing in Europe, what we're seeing in the UK is the starter gun for what we are expecting huge success in the US in those November elections.
00:49:34.000Thanks, Peter. Look at my final observation. This occurred to me just as you were talking, right?
00:49:41.000I bet it looks, I bet, you know, the autistic Tory party, the autistic parliamentary party ought to be looking back on its decision to treat with contempt the idea of naming Nigel Farage as His Majesty's Ambassador to Washington as a missed opportunity for them.
00:50:04.000Right. Because they could have done it. They didn't because they wanted to show instead how much contempt they had for him.
00:50:11.000And, you know, how smart, you know, how smart are they feeling now?
00:50:19.000OK, look, I just want to leave the last word to the Financial Times headline.
00:50:24.000Starmer stands supreme, but he cannot ignore the reform surge. I think that sums it up well there in the FT.
00:50:32.000Peter, a minute left. How do folks get hold of you? I know you've got an interesting guest coming up on the show tomorrow.
00:50:38.000All our shows are interesting, Ben. Come on. You're on that often. That shows how interesting we have lots of guests on Thursday with Dr. Shea Bradley-File with us from Conjure Point Institute.
00:50:52.000Love what she is doing, engaging in Hungary, very much part of CPAC Hungary.
00:50:58.000On Saturday, we have Betty. And Betty, a high-profile figure here in the UK. She's been on before. Love having her on. Love her post she puts on Twitter.
00:51:07.000So she's joining us, obviously, to unpack the election and then to go into a range of other issues.
00:51:13.000So you can catch us 3 p.m. Eastern, whenever we're not bumped by President Trump or anyone else.
00:51:20.000But happily, we'll step aside. But yes, at Heart to Vogue UK on Twitter and at Heart to Vogue on Getter, on Gab, everywhere else.
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