Kamala Harris's latest interview with CNN's Dana Bash and her poll numbers in the Democratic primary are causing some to question whether she's actually a presidential candidate. Pollster Richard Barris joins us to give his thoughts on the clip.
00:03:50.000Some pollsters, some media consultant put that phrase into her head to make sure she said it again and again as an answer to those who claim that she flip flopped.
00:04:01.000So, Chris, I'm listening to this and I'm actually disappointed.
00:04:04.000So I thought I was going to be able to come here.
00:04:06.000Maybe the rest of the interview is much better and say this is what the American people want to hear.
00:04:12.000This is this is going to continue the trend that she's been.
00:05:41.000But they're getting very scared and they needed to knock this interview out of the park.
00:05:46.000And they want because you've got to understand, folks, people in D.C. think that like an interview with Dana Bash is going to sway the election one way or the other.
00:05:55.000It's really just about affirming what people may think of you.
00:05:58.000It's not going to be some life saving or game changing event.
00:06:01.000But however, if you mess it up, if you botch it, it's like if you do good, people think you expect they're expecting you to do good.
00:07:41.000OK, before we get into your your great new results to show and talk about, I want to just talk a little bit about this cognitive dissonance we have.
00:08:06.000ABC News is interesting because it's going to be hosting that debate, but it's made spectacular errors in favor of the Democrats now and both in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
00:08:21.000So let me let me let me I got a list here in my head.
00:08:25.000So so the first way you can you can manipulate a poll, if you so choose, present company would never do that because we want the truth would be to over sample, for example, the Democrats.
00:08:40.000And you can do that, I would think, by both having more Democrats in your sample directly or by assuming a higher turnout.
00:08:56.000So that would be maybe maybe maybe one way you can do that.
00:09:00.000You can ask Dana Bash, Dana Mush type leading questions that you can do that.
00:09:09.000There are maybe timing issues where you go out with a poll after some transit event has happened.
00:09:19.000So what else how else are these these the the ABCs and the Quinnipiacs going so wrong?
00:09:31.000And it matters to be clear when you have polling out there showing somebody's gaining momentum that creates a bandwagon effect and a self-fulfilling prophecy.
00:09:41.000So tell me if you were Machiavelli and how would you how would you manipulate a poll like they're doing?
00:09:53.000You named a lot of the the the go to thing, you know, the go to tactics in the playbook.
00:09:59.000And I'd like to elaborate on some of them to explain to people what, you know, specifically they're doing.
00:10:05.000But there's one that I think I didn't hear, which is you can withhold polls.
00:10:09.000The timing not only going into the field, but releasing them.
00:10:13.000So I'm just going to say it because they need to be shamed.
00:10:17.000Bloomberg, which is conducted by morning consult, has now repeatedly done this.
00:10:22.000And to give them a text, a textbook example, folks, they released a slew of battleground polls before Biden was thrown out in a coup.
00:10:31.000They released a slew of battleground polls after after the State of the Union.
00:10:36.000And the headline from Bloomberg was Biden rebound sharply in the battleground states after the State of the Union.
00:10:43.000However, when you looked at when those polls were conducted, they were actually conducted two weeks before Joe Biden ever gave the State of the Union speech.
00:10:53.000Everyone ran with it. Fox News ran with it. Axios ran with it.
00:10:57.000Everybody ran with it because nobody's really digging in to say, you know what, when were these polls conducted?
00:11:03.000And you have to go to RealClearPolitics if you're not a subscriber of morning consult.
00:11:08.000You'd have to go to RealClearPolitics and look at the dates that they're putting in their averages.
00:11:12.000And that is now something that's being done consistently. And there's two sides of the coin on this.
00:11:19.000If it's a poll that favors Trump, we've noticed that pollsters have withheld them during periods of when there is a narrative where Harris is doing well.
00:11:30.000So there was, for instance, a couple of polls out there that actually showed Trump's still ahead nationally in the height of this.
00:11:37.000You know, it's not real. The momentum is only partly real. Most of it is not real.
00:11:42.000And I can explain that more. But it's a response bias that they're exploiting.
00:13:46.000So there are, you know, we have different modes of collection to reach different people.
00:13:49.000And, you know, going into this response bias, not everybody responds to the same mode of collection like collecting interviews on a cell phone live.
00:13:59.000Not everyone responds to that particular mode at the same rate, and you can underrepresent certain groups.
00:14:05.000The same thing goes for like IVR, interactive voice response.
00:14:08.000You may be calling a landline with a prerecorded line, what we called robo polls back in the day.
00:14:14.000That's not, you know, that's not going to reach a representative group.
00:14:19.000So you have to bring in a different mode, like an online panel, a marketplace, in order to find a more diverse and especially younger demographic to balance out how much older, you know, those landlines are going to be.
00:14:31.000And that, I mean, we have metrics to measure how the quality of these marketplaces.
00:17:43.000I mean, look, I mean, Peter, the FiveThirtyEight model never had Donald Trump as the favorite.
00:17:50.000Even when Trump was ahead in every battleground state average and every national poll against Joe Biden, they were the only forecast model on the Internet that still had Biden as the favorite.
00:18:01.000And again, they got rid of basically scrapped Gary Langer from Langer Research, which long conducted the ABC News poll.
00:18:08.000And now they're using Ipsos as an online panel just to go back in time, Peter.
00:18:13.000Here's some of the 2020 final polls from the Reuters poll, which is also Ipsos.
00:18:18.000And that's another thing they do use the same data set with different organizations to give you the impression that they're really different polling.
00:22:46.000She ended Kamala Harris's run for president.
00:22:49.000It was already very rocky, and the campaign was in deep trouble because Kamala Harris couldn't manage a lemonade stand because that campaign was in shambles.
00:22:56.000But Tulsi Gabbard got on that debate stage and ended her run with, you know, talking about prosecuting black and brown people at ridiculous rates for throwing them in jail for excessive periods of time for a nickelback, right?
00:23:24.000It affirmed what I think she does, and I've got to give him credit.
00:23:28.000Robert Barnes, looking at the results of this poll we were talking, and he had said something that stuck with me because I think he's 100% right.
00:23:34.000You know, what, like, Tulsi does and what RFK does is give this group of people that were, you know, difficult for Trump to get but are on the left but share more in common with Trump than the modern Democratic Party because they're like neoliberals.
00:23:49.000And it's a breed of populism even though it's on the left.
00:23:52.000It gives them a political permission slip.
00:23:55.000That's the phrase he used, and I thought it was 100% correct.
00:23:58.000It gives them a political permission slip to vote for Trump.
00:24:02.000And people, you know, affirmations matter.
00:24:05.000And when you see Tulsi out there, and you're younger, you tilt to the left, but you're certainly populist in nature, below the age of 45 especially, and you see Tulsi Gabbard and, you know, Bobby Kennedy out there campaigning with Donald Trump.
00:24:29.000I was having a debate with one of the Trump pollster types.
00:24:36.000And the conversation went, like, the only thing that matters is economy and border, right?
00:24:43.000And I said, well, what about communist China?
00:24:45.000Don't people, particularly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, understand that the economy is in the tank in large part because of communist China?
00:25:16.000I don't know that you could ever take China off the table as an issue because especially in the Midwest, China is everyone's, and I'm not saying they're not wrong.
00:25:28.000But China is everyone's poster child bad boy for when we're talking about trade and, like, who got the wealth in this country from trade?
00:25:37.000Everyone in Pennsylvania, everyone in Wisconsin, everyone in Michigan knows that China was the recipient, the benefact of these bad trade deals.
00:25:46.000So, I mean, you could always throw China in there as because they're going to be their target.
00:25:51.000Look, if you were playing darts and there was a picture of somebody on the dartboard in the Midwest, it's China, you know?
00:25:56.000So I don't think I would leave trade off the table.
00:26:00.000That was always such a powerful message for him.
00:26:02.000That is why those Bernie voters voted for him.
00:26:04.000Trade and immigration together is the economy.
00:26:07.000Can you loop communist China into the reason why we're having a failure on the economy?
00:26:14.000It's like somebody in Pennsylvania, when they say the economy is my issue, do they also generally know that it's China the problem and that if you got soft people on China, the economy is going to be down?
00:26:26.000Is that too big a lift to do in a message?
00:26:29.000I mean, this is how this is what I would limit it to.
00:26:32.000And I don't know why he doesn't do this.
00:26:34.000But I mean, I would have framed it as, you know, we were so close with China renegotiating.
00:26:44.000I mean, I would be telling the American people they robbed you.
00:26:47.000They robbed you because they are beholden to them.
00:26:51.000And this would have gotten, you know, we could have straightened this out.
00:26:54.000I mean, obviously, you're not going to say it like this.
00:26:56.000But, you know, if they did not rob you of your second term, then this would have been dealt with and we would have been able to take that wealth back.
00:27:04.000That's how I would tell these people that.
00:27:06.000And unfortunately, in 2020, that message that got him elected, it did.
00:27:33.000You know, best places on locals peoples pundit dot locals dot com after the war room inside the numbers is coming up and we're going to look at the I'm going to show people the polling response by us.
00:27:43.000I'm going to open up the back of the software and show them what's going on.
00:27:46.000Thanks for having me as always, brother.
00:36:10.000And let me summarize it again for you pinheads in journalism who don't get it.
00:36:20.000If there's a substantial issue in a case like there is in Steve Bannon's, and mine, by the way, related in this case to the constitutional separation of powers
00:36:30.000and whether a case called Licavoli should be a binding precedent—it should not—then Steve should be released pending appeal until that goes all the way up and through the Supreme Court.
00:36:42.000And Judge Nichols may be forgiven for putting Steve back in jail, because at the time Judge Walker hadn't issued that dissent.
00:36:52.000But now that dissent is there, and because Judge Walker has a very good track record in being right on these things, there's a good case for Judge Nichols that Steve Bannon should be out immediately again, released pending appeal.
00:37:12.000Now, number two is the one that hits the closest home to me based on my own personal experience.
00:37:20.000So I was held in contempt by a Democrat Congress, put in prosecution and indictment by a Democrat Attorney General, Merrick Garland.
00:37:34.000And I was stripped of every possible defense by Judge Amit Mehta, based on this Licavoli decision, before I was sent to a D.C. jury, which was drawn from a jury pool that 95 percent voted for Joe Biden.
00:37:52.000I didn't have—I didn't have a prayer in the friggin' world, okay?
00:37:56.000But my case is, because it's moving up the chain through appeals court and eventually to the Supreme Court, my case is like the purest case of a senior presidential advisor upholding the doctrine of executive privilege of George Washington to preserve and defend the constitutional separation of powers.
00:38:21.000I was the only guy ever charged with this crime as a senior presidential advisor in the White House at the time of the events.
00:39:35.000But even after I was sent there, and this is the important part, there's two pieces of landmark law, the First Step Act, which President Trump put into place, and the Second Chance Act, which was a little earlier, that provides for sentence reductions once you're in the slammer, provided you engage in good conduct and programmed behavior to get you ready for the outside.
00:40:04.000And the way the formulas work in a four-month sentence, okay?
00:40:28.000I'm the guy who served my whole term there.
00:40:30.000Now, what should have happened under the First Step Act and the Second Chance Act is I should have been released either to a halfway house or home confinement 42 days prior to July 17th when I was released.
00:40:46.000And Steve is entitled to exactly, exactly the same relief under the law.
00:40:53.000And the Bureau of Prisons will break the law if they do not allow Steve to go to home confinement 42 days earlier than his release date, which would allow him to get out in late September and get back to this microphone.
00:41:23.000And that's the second reason that was part of the motion that Steve filed.
00:41:28.000And if Steve stays in prison for the whole term, then for the second time in a row, the Bureau of Prisons and the district court will be breaking congressional law in the First Step Act and the Second Chance Act.
00:41:49.000So on those two bases, there's a substantial issue.
00:41:55.000In this case, he should be released pending appeal.
00:41:58.000And in the alternative, as they say in the law, Steve is entitled under the First Step Act and the Second Chance Act to release 42 days earlier to home confinement where he could easily, from the Breitbart embassy, sit right at his microphone, drink his Warpath coffee,
00:42:20.000and make a difference in this 2024 election.
00:43:06.000I want to warn you of a huge change that could be coming to our money in our bank accounts.
00:43:11.000First, think back to 9-11, shortly after the government pushed through the Patriot Act.
00:43:16.000This gave the government power to spy on innocent Americans by monitoring our phone and email and tracking our movement across the Internet.
00:43:24.000Now, Jim Rickards, editor of the independent financial newsletter Strategic Intelligence and New York Times bestselling author, is warning about a coming event that could elevate this governmental surveillance to a terrifying new level.
00:43:37.000In fact, some of the guests I've had on The War Room believe that the government will soon expand their powers to track our every move.
00:43:44.000If we say the wrong things on social media, donate to the wrong causes, buy firearms, or even vote MAGA, the government may be able to shut us out of our bank accounts.
00:43:56.000I can't say for sure if this will happen, but it's an interesting and dire warning.
00:44:02.000Fortunately, Jim Rickards, an American patriot and friend of mine, has made it his mission to educate us on what he believes is coming and how to protect yourself from the possibility of programmable money.
00:44:14.000Watch Jim's warning video now before it's censored like I've been in the past.
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00:45:07.000Now, we've seen it time and time again, somebody exposes the truth just to be labeled a conspiracy theorist, only to be proven right later on.
00:45:15.000Let me tell you about the next thing you should be concerned about, government geo-tracking of your phone and other devices.
00:45:22.000We've seen the government use geo-fencing to track the devices of individuals on January 6th, leading to unwarranted arrests without evidence of wrongdoing.
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00:47:10.000And the realtor did a title search for ownership confirmation.
00:47:14.000And they actually had to stop the sale because they found out that her title had been transferred to a man that she'd never met.
00:47:20.000So now on paper, her home wasn't hers to sell.
00:47:23.000And then when investigating how that happened, they actually found two other homeowners whose homes had also been transferred to the same man.
00:47:31.000All without them knowing, all right under their nose.
00:47:34.000And none of them would have even known had this attorney not tried to sell her house.
00:47:39.000So since then, all three homeowners have filed civil lawsuits against this man.
00:47:45.000And despite the attorney getting the authorities involved and the man actually being charged with multiple felonies, this is the sad reality for the homeowners.
00:47:53.000Two of the civil cases to get the title back of the homeowners name are still pending and one has gone through.
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