Kamala Harris is the Democratic presidential nominee. She's running against a man who's been found liable for massive fraud, and who knows how to lie so much that he was found liable in a case that the judge called rape.
00:05:02.660The two things that really are interesting about these guys is that J.D. and his family and community are getting hammered by the communist Chinese cheating.
00:05:13.900And Tim Waltz is over there sucking on the Chinese teat from the money that they're making from hammering J.D. Vance's community.
00:05:24.360I mean, the symmetry there is kind of interesting.
00:05:28.440And then, of course, the other parallel, J.D. rides to the sound of the guns in Iraq.
00:06:49.920I'll put this out here, see who gets the number right.
00:06:52.200So 50% of the population of America control what percent of the nation's wealth?
00:07:04.16050% of the country control what percent of the nation's wealth?
00:07:10.320And why this is important is going back to when Romney made that intemperate remark behind closed doors just before the election that did not do him a lot of good,
00:07:23.340where he observed that 47% always vote Democrat because they're on the government teat, welfare folks, right?
00:07:37.640So the answer is 50% of Americans control 94% of the wealth.
00:07:46.800So the other half, the other half has to live off 6% of America's wealth, okay?
00:07:57.020But here's what's the bad news for Kamala Harris and the Democrats.
00:08:04.500It's like usually the 50% that are the 47% that Romney said were on the government dole vote Democratic to keep themselves on the government dole.
00:08:19.120There's no amount of government dole that's keeping pace right now with inflation.
00:08:26.900And these folks, they have to choose between food on the table, medicine in the cabinet, a roof over their head, and it ain't working.
00:08:38.400So in this economy, in the Bidenomics economy, it's kind of interesting.
00:08:44.420Like right now, the top end, and I'm not talking about the 1%, I'm talking about the 50%, are doing way better than the bottom 50%.
00:09:01.520And if Donald Trump takes even a small fraction of that traditional group of folks who vote Democrat because of the welfare safety net that they think that they absolutely have to have rather than jobs and prosperity, that's the election right there.
00:09:32.060Now, in terms of what's going on, if Denver could put up that one chart of something called the ISM Manufacturing Index, to me, this is all about things.
00:09:47.100You look at this thing, but look at the – it looks like a mountain there with a little peak, right?
00:09:55.380And what the ISM Manufacturing Index is, it's a 0 to 100 diffusion index.
00:10:02.580And what it does is tell you whether or not the economy is going to go into a recession or not.
00:10:09.420And in the old days, it used to work pretty damn well.
00:10:12.920If the ISM were below 50 for a while, that was going to be a recession.
00:10:20.560It doesn't work so well anymore because we lost our manufacturing base to the commies, and we engage in so much irresponsible fiscal stimulus.
00:10:34.260But what's interesting about this is that it shows the contrast between Bidenomics and Trumpnomics.
00:10:44.460In March of 2021, this was just a couple of months after Biden took office, the ISM was an astonishing 64.7.
00:11:00.600Now, that had nothing to do with Biden.
00:11:03.240It had everything to do with Donald Trump because that's kind of the lags that are kind of involved.
00:11:09.480And what we've seen since then is a steady decline to 50 and then below 50, and the current number is 47.2.
00:11:22.240So we've been in a situation where the investment part of the GDP growth equation, consumption, investment, government spending, net exports, that investment thing has been basically in the toilet throughout the Biden regime.
00:11:41.000So why haven't we gone into a recession?
00:11:45.000And you have to look at the other two domestic elements, consumption, right, and government spending.
00:11:55.000And what we've had is a consumer-driven growth, and the consumer-driven growth is due entirely, entirely to Bidenomics, fiscal Keynesian-type overspending,
00:12:23.060which in the first wave gave households a bunch of money that they could squirrel away and save and then draw down the savings.
00:12:36.500And then in the second wave, and remember Kamala Harris made the tie-breaking vote for these budget-busting bills, injected more money into the economy.
00:12:46.940And that's been keeping it going, and E.J. Antony is going to come up next, makes the point in his latest article that Biden and Harris have added in four short years one quarter of the entire debt held by America.
00:13:13.980That is Keynesianism, not on steroids, but on some other kind of stimulus that makes steroids look like non-caffeine tea.
00:13:34.700So we've got trouble in the investment section of the GDP equation, but it's being overcome by the C and G, the consumption and government spending.
00:13:47.280And then in terms of the net exports, we just keep running our trade deficit higher and higher.
00:18:17.340So EJ Antony, I want to bring him in right now, pose a question.
00:18:28.100EJ has been at kind of the forefront of pointing out that the net effect, even though the unemployment rate's been low and there's been a net creation in jobs,
00:18:40.600the net effect on American workers, American-born workers, American citizens, has been to lose jobs.
00:18:48.100That is, you got more illegal aliens coming into the workforce and grabbing jobs, and you got Americans losing them.
00:19:00.500So I wanted to – the first thing I wanted to pose the question to is, EJ, there's this big discrepancy between the numbers of jobs that are reporting and the household survey data, which is much lower.
00:19:13.840And my theory is that illegal aliens simply aren't responding to the survey and that they're actually creating that amount of jobs in the payroll survey,
00:19:25.460but they're going to illegals and the data's not showing it.
00:19:29.180So anyway, EJ, welcome to the War Room.
00:19:38.020I think there's definitely a case to be made there that you do have a lot of these illegal aliens not responding to these government surveys in terms of the labor market,
00:19:46.880just like they don't respond to a lot of other government surveys, whether it's census data or otherwise.
00:19:52.400Bill Beach, who used to be the commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has made a very similar case where he thinks the population numbers in the United States as well as the employment numbers are probably way off today in large part because of exactly the effect that you're describing, Peter.
00:20:08.340Now, we have a lot of other things, I think, going on here as well, which help explain that big gap between payrolls and employment.
00:20:16.020Now, people at first may think, well, how are those two not equivalent, right?
00:20:20.160Part of it is because you have the phenomenon of double counting when it comes to payrolls.
00:20:25.080In other words, if I work a job at one institution, but then I also have a second job or even a third job somewhere else, at every single place of business that I work, I get counted as an additional payroll.
00:20:37.180Furthermore, that's true even if they're only part-time jobs.
00:20:40.620And as we've seen over the last year, we've been hemorrhaging full-time jobs, losing well over a million, and replacing them with all part-time jobs.
00:20:49.160So folks have been losing full-time jobs, replacing them with part-time ones, multiple part-time ones.
00:20:55.200That's increasing the number of payrolls without increasing the number of people who are employed.
00:21:00.060You also, because we're in a cost-of-living crisis, are seeing another phenomenon where people who still have their full-time jobs are having to go and get a part-time job to supplement their income.
00:21:10.300A lot of American families are doing this today to try to cope with inflation.
00:21:14.660And again, the consequence of that is that you can not increase the number of people employed, but you can increase the number of jobs.
00:21:23.480So we're seeing a lot of effects like that in the labor market today, which have turned things that are normally a sign of improvement into a sign of impoverishment.
00:21:33.120In other words, people are getting additional work more so out of desperation than anything else.
00:21:38.580But it is clear at this point that the economy is really not increasing the number of folks who are employed.
00:21:44.660It's certainly not the number of legal residents who are employed.
00:21:50.520So you have, in short, you've got illegal aliens stealing American jobs.
00:21:58.480And then you've got Americans losing their full-time jobs, probably because employers don't want to pay them health insurance.
00:22:08.640And then having to take multiple jobs in order just to stay afloat.
00:22:14.760Well, Peter, I think it's important to point out there's a huge difference right now between the influx of illegal aliens we're seeing today versus the immigrants that came during the Trump years.
00:22:27.560You know, if we go back during that great expansion of the economy when Trump was president, we saw increases in both foreign-born and native-born employment.
00:22:38.840And actually, we even saw a faster rate of increase among foreign workers than we did for native-born Americans, except any native-born American essentially who wanted a job was able to find them.
00:22:51.060Part of that is because we didn't have a massive increase in almost exclusively low-skill labor.
00:22:57.640We had many more immigrants coming to this country who were high-skilled.
00:23:03.580Let me pose a puzzle to you because, I mean, this isn't supposed to happen.
00:23:10.200Illegals aren't supposed to be able to just walk in and take jobs.
00:23:15.640The employers have a responsibility to check their documentation.
00:23:21.260Has the Biden regime basically just ignored all that?
00:23:27.640How are American companies, corporations, hiring literally millions, millions of illegal aliens, which is illegal under the law, and getting away with it?
00:23:45.360Well, Peter, it doesn't seem like there's been any effort whatsoever among this administration to enforce any of those laws.
00:23:53.060In fact, they are allowing states like California to openly flaunt those laws.
00:23:59.100I mean, look at California is probably the best example of this.
00:24:02.320There may be others, but as far as I know, California, again, is the best example of this here, where they are not only giving welfare, for example, to illegal aliens, but they are creating whole new welfare programs exclusively for illegal aliens.
00:24:18.420So the last thing that they are going to do is in any way turn these folks away.
00:24:23.560They're not going to do anything to prevent businesses from hiring them.
00:24:27.780And the consequence of that is that's where the jobs are going to go.
00:24:34.440I don't know if you're a stock market observer at all, but what do you make about the sustained, bullish, seemingly bullish move of the stock market?
00:24:45.500How do you account for that if there's underlying rot in the broad economy, which I think there might be?
00:24:56.680What's your take on that, or do you not go there?
00:25:00.000Oh, no, I follow the market very closely.
00:25:02.600I do a lot of consulting on this as well.
00:25:04.560One of the things we have to remember, Peter, is stocks are priced in nominal terms.
00:25:08.960In other words, it's just a metric of the dollar.
00:25:12.980It's not so much a metric of the dollar's value, but rather these things are priced using dollars.
00:25:19.820So as the value of the dollar goes down, it's just going to take more dollars to buy the exact same stock in this case.
00:25:27.020And what we've seen under the Biden-Harris administration is more than two-thirds of all the increase in equities has been exclusively from a devaluation of the dollar.
00:25:37.780So it's not as if the real worth in these companies has increased.
00:25:43.920About two-thirds of the increase has simply been a devaluation of the dollar as opposed to an increase in real value.
00:25:51.900And it's actually even worse if instead of using the official inflation metrics, you look at something like the price of gold,
00:25:58.400and you use that to essentially adjust for the increase in equities.
00:26:04.300I mean, my goodness, you look at gold versus the S&P over the last about half a century, it shows no real change in that stock index.
00:26:12.500I mean, that's just absolutely terrible.
00:26:13.940But it gives you an idea of just how much the dollar has lost in value and probably why it's such a good idea to have gold as an inflation hedge.
00:26:38.820Or is everything going to be just like it is today?
00:26:44.060Well, one of the things that markets are also betting on at this point is a Trump victory.
00:26:48.040If you look at how markets perform when Trump is ahead versus either Biden or Harris have been ahead, stocks have done significantly better.
00:26:56.060It's almost an order of magnitude better when Trump has been ahead over the last 12 months.
00:27:01.180So there definitely seems to be a Trump victory that's also getting priced in here in terms of, you know, where are we going to be in November?
00:27:09.180At that point, the Fed will probably have have already cut rates at least once.
00:27:13.540You know, we'll see if they manage to get a second one in in an emergency meeting.
00:29:22.880If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and look at this.
00:29:28.520Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes because the bottom line is Pennsylvania would flip up here and you would also get this flip out in Nevada over here.
00:29:38.960And that, my friends, is what we're talking about.
00:29:41.140Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K. Bannon.
00:29:47.300We're going to bring up Richard Barris momentarily.
00:29:50.980Just a shout-out to Matrix Man in the chat pointing out that Walmart in Pocatello, Idaho, is hiring illegals to deliver to your mom and grandma.
00:30:05.820There's just one little data point to confirm our theory.
00:30:11.300And then a lot of you are asking in the chat when's Steve going to get out of prison.
00:30:15.560He's scheduled to get out, and this was no coincidence, just a few days before Election Day, which basically takes him off the table for the entire campaign season.
00:30:29.640But he does have a motion in for an early release that I've talked about on the air.
00:30:37.800And I think that there's a good chance that that motion will prevail because it should prevail.
00:30:45.800The problem, of course, is the court he's in, which is not exactly pro-Bannon, pro-Navarro country.
00:31:40.100My theory here, Richard, is that this election, Trump is going to grab more of the poor folk that would ordinarily go to the Democrats because they value the social safety net.
00:31:56.700But they're going to go to Trump because the inflation is so bad that that social safety net ain't working and they need prosperity and jobs to get them out.
00:32:26.280But listen, this is something that's a big talking point on our show, which is, of course, every poll we conduct, we not only edit, but we release it so people can see.
00:32:36.400And we've been looking at this now for over a year income.
00:32:40.000So the primo Trump voter, Peter, we always obsess and focus on two groups, educated voters and suburban females.
00:33:22.120And you know what you're looking at when we release polls.
00:33:24.780And that had started to change about a year ago, ballparking it, you know, and we're seeing that margin tighten.
00:33:30.620And inflation certainly is, you know, a factor in that.
00:33:34.280And in fact, we had been seeing it when we did rematch polling back in 22.
00:33:38.580But now, for instance, it is starting to look the way it looked against Biden in our last poll, which was released late for late week last week against Harris.
00:33:49.000In the first poll that we did, Trump v. Harris, that under 30,000 began to look a little bit more like it usually does, you know, Democrats with a pretty healthy margin.
00:33:58.700And then that now has narrowed again this month.
00:34:01.460So, you know, I mean, that's how Republicans typically win elections.
00:34:04.320When they do, they win the 30 to 50 pretty overwhelmingly.
00:34:08.500And then really the 50 to 100 is their most loyal or supportive income group.
00:34:15.420But with Trump, that has always been a little bit different.
00:34:18.220He did better with upper income people in 16 than people expected.
00:34:21.860And then in 20, you could see that change with lower income people.
00:34:25.540This, what we're seeing now, is basically the coalition you would expect from his platform,
00:34:30.700which is that self-made person, no matter really what their education level is, but even those who make a lot but don't have a four-year degree or higher.
00:34:40.060And then those who, you know, I mean, it comes to a point, and I think this is what's going on here.
00:34:44.680It gets to a point where assistance, like social assistance is not enough, Peter, right?
00:35:16.900I mean, it's that and it's immigration.
00:35:18.420They don't like how they're not being prioritized.
00:35:21.020They were once a very loyal Democratic group, and they're being kind of cast to the side for another group of people, and it's certainly – it pisses them off.
00:37:13.900The 30 and below – well, let me put it this way.
00:37:16.760The 30 and below, it's hard to get a representative response rate out of them or a representative sample because, yes, the response rates like other groups are low compared to what they used to be 15 years ago.
00:37:30.240So upper-income people that are more educated still respond at a much higher rate.
00:37:36.180But even when you do get them to respond, you've got to make sure looking at other variables like geography and area type, education, you've got to make sure that it is representative of that group.
00:38:16.980I would say they're more motivated than we have seen them in most recent cycles.
00:38:22.160I don't know about other pollsters, but at this point, we're starting to see motivation levels that are approaching 2020 and actually have in prior surveys surpassed that.
00:38:32.040Immediately, if you go to crosstabs right now, and it should be like this for every pollster, when you look at certainty to vote, which self-reported, are you certain?
00:38:40.060Are you almost certain – the New York Times poll says we use a certainty, we use more likely than not, right, less likely than not.
00:38:48.380You can look on age, you can look at education, and you can look at income, and it's like a ladder, the lowest on one side, the highest on the other.
00:38:57.600And when it comes to education, the more certain, the more educated they are.
00:39:15.320I want to ask you one key question for the debate tomorrow night.
00:39:20.380Lindsay Davis, one of the moderators, I don't know how she was allowed to do this, but she's like the DEI queen.
00:39:27.820She writes kids' propaganda books on DEI, right?
00:39:32.600So Trump's going to get hit with that kind of crap.
00:39:36.020But is DEI in your polling a four-letter word or something that people – how does that one play out?
00:39:46.540Yeah, I mean when it comes to DEI, stuff like that, we – you can't use a term like that in the question because if you do, anytime you use a media buzzword or something that's in either party's vernacular, right?
00:40:00.020Or either party's like go-to vocabulary, you're going to taint the survey.
00:40:04.600So you have to get really creative with that, talk about what it is and whether people support it or not without actually using the words.
00:40:11.620Same thing applied with critical race theory.
00:40:14.200Sometimes we would explain it and say this is what people say critical race theory is.
00:40:18.560But ultimately, do you support this or do you – or do you not?
00:40:23.760If you use that buzzword, Peter, immediately the bias gets injected.
00:40:27.820Everyone goes to their respective corners and they give the answer that they think they're expected to give.
00:40:33.040So we wouldn't actually use the term DEI.
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00:44:31.840Yeah, the New York Times poll that came out on Sunday, I think there's a couple of things that are very important.
00:44:37.580And there's a few demographics that are like copied and pasted almost, which means identical to what we found in our poll at the end of last week.
00:44:44.600The Midwest, minority voters, black voter support, Hispanic support, almost all identical.
00:44:50.000But then also similar questions that we asked, the Harris campaign should be most concerned about these two.
00:44:59.080And then who's going to bring it to you?
00:45:01.160Trump has an overwhelming advantage on that.
00:45:03.220And then who most reflects the country's values?
00:45:07.020Do you think Trump is too conservative or is he right in the middle, right where he's supposed to be?
00:45:11.760Half the country thinks he's right where he's supposed to be.
00:45:14.400A minority thinks that he's too conservative.
00:45:16.580That's not true of Kamala Harris, where half the country thinks that she's too liberal, too progressive, and then a minority believes that she's in the middle.
00:45:24.620Those two things are going to be very, very difficult to overcome.
00:45:29.460In 16, those questions benefited Trump, both of them.
00:45:33.580And then in 20, actually, when asked who was more reflective of the country and was in the middle, it was Biden.
00:45:39.480So these are questions that really weigh on people when they go into the voting booth that they mail in their ballot, Peter.
00:45:45.960And those are bad, bad signs for Harris, bad signs.
00:45:51.020So people are seeing Kamala for who she really is.
00:46:43.620I just wanted to come on and remind everyone that Congress is back in session today.
00:46:49.180So everyone, download Bill Blaster, which you can go to BillBlasterApp.org or just go to the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store and put in Bill Blaster, one word.
00:47:03.460And that is to call Congress with just virtually with one touch and just light up their phones.
00:47:10.480We need to make sure that the SAVE Act gets passed.
00:49:18.720And the first assignment I would love to give to Posse is this.
00:49:26.960We have a good chance of taking back the U.S. Senate because there's many more seats up for grabs that the Republicans have a chance of getting than the Democrats.
00:49:44.160Unlike Congress, the House, which goes up – everybody goes up every two years, the Senate goes in three increments because it's a six-year term.
00:49:57.300Every two years, there's a third of the Senate comes up.
00:49:59.780This year, the cycle really favors us.
00:50:02.920But what's going on here is that the Republican Senate committee is withholding funds and support for pro-Trump candidates like Carrie Lake in Arizona.
00:50:18.060And we're just running behind Trump in the polling in these key battleground states where we could pick up these Senate seats.
00:51:13.140We've got a comparison of the life and times of J.D. Vance growing up getting hammered by the Chinese communists, riding to the sounds of guns in Iraq versus Tim Walz sucking at the teat of the Chinese Communist Party as he grew up.
00:51:34.260And running away from the sound of the guns and running away from the sound of the guns.
00:51:39.080We'll be right back with Adam Milan and Vance V. Waltz.
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