Bannon's War Room - Episode 4028： Mass Mobilization Weekend： Pathways For Trump

00:00:00.000 A fifth illegal immigrant accused of attacking two New York City police officers over the weekend

00:00:05.640 showed no remorse or regret.

00:00:07.960 Would you have done something differently?

00:00:09.860 There is not a thing that comes to mind.

00:00:11.900 Only 18% say the economy is in excellent or good condition.

00:00:16.060 U.S. inflation has hit a new 40-year high, increasing by 9.1% over the financial year.

00:00:22.360 Authorities saying Train de Aragua, which has been linked with more than 100 criminal investigations

00:00:27.300 here in the U.S., has now been found operating its criminal enterprise in apartment complexes.

00:00:33.000 Were you the last person in the room?

00:00:34.440 Yes.

00:00:37.400 Do you believe it?

00:00:40.420 So if you want to end this disaster, you must get out and vote.

00:00:45.560 We have to stop what's going on in our country.

00:00:47.400 We're not going to have a country anymore.

00:00:48.700 This will be Venezuela on steroids.

00:00:51.900 We're pleased to be joined.

00:00:53.520 You're listening and watching in Kinston, North Carolina, southeast of Raleigh.

00:00:59.580 President Trump's North Carolina rally.

00:01:01.660 North Carolina were the critical states for Tuesday.

00:01:03.660 We're going to continue coverage.

00:01:04.940 President Trump will jump in with worm in a moment.

00:01:07.780 You're better looking now than you were years ago prior to that.

00:01:11.900 But I tell you, you are something.

00:01:13.520 This man was, I went to visit him in the hospital.

00:01:16.280 One thing I found out, his wife loves him.

00:01:20.260 She was so devastated.

00:01:22.540 I've been to areas where the wives didn't care that much. 1.00

00:01:27.480 This wife, he's got a great wife and she loves him.

00:01:31.260 She was so devastated she couldn't even think.

00:01:34.960 Steve Scully, stand up, Steve.

00:01:38.320 Look great.

00:01:39.600 Amazing.

00:01:41.440 He got hit hard, Mike, right?

00:01:43.520 He got hit hard.

00:01:44.900 He's a great guy.

00:01:45.600 Thank you, Steve, very much.

00:01:46.940 Say hello to your wife and family.

00:01:49.220 Members of Congress, Greg Murphy and Dan Bishop.

00:01:53.300 Thank you, fellas.

00:01:54.560 Thank you very much.

00:01:56.620 Thank you very much.

00:01:59.120 Real champions.

00:02:01.540 Okay, we're going to go back.

00:02:02.880 They're going to do the honor roll there for who's there.

00:02:05.900 President's going to talk about more things.

00:02:07.220 We're going to jump back in.

00:02:08.180 I want to bring in and want to thank Real America's Voice, Parker and Rob Sigg for allowing us and giving us additional time here on a Sunday.

00:02:21.040 We're back, obviously, tomorrow morning, 10 to noon and then 5 to 7.

00:02:24.380 And then we're going to go to Tuesday show from the war room and then shift the flag over to for our on our spectacular Washington coverage from the imperial capital, the heart of the imperial capital on Tuesday.

00:02:37.660 Boyle, you're going to be in.

00:02:38.600 You're going to be down in Mar-a-Lago sitting on the beach drinking Mai Tais, right, on Tuesday?

00:02:43.660 I'm not going to be in Mar-a-Lago.

00:02:44.960 I'm going to be at home.

00:02:45.880 I'm in North Florida, and I'm going to be manning my own little war room here going through numbers in nine.

00:02:52.320 Okay, fine, fine.

00:02:53.700 Okay, you answer the question.

00:02:55.200 You're going to be working, as you always do.

00:02:56.740 You're best when that command center you've got.

00:02:59.300 Matt, you did what I call the Matt Boyle special.

00:03:02.820 It was an amazing piece.

00:03:04.420 It went up early this afternoon at Breitbart, and it's pure analytics of exactly where we stand through the eyes of a very smart guy who's the national political editor at Breitbart.

00:03:15.760 That would be you.

00:03:16.720 Can you walk us through, and if Denver can put the article up, and if Grayson Moe can get it not only on the site, but I want to push this out on social media.

00:03:24.560 Can you walk us through it?

00:03:25.340 Because I think it's the best way to end the weekend thinking about where we are with the math, not with a bunch of guesswork, but really with the math.

00:03:34.760 The floor is yours.

00:03:36.560 Yeah, so, Steve, what I did was I went through all the polls, all the early vote data, and this is what I'm doing constantly in an election is I'm trying to make sense of it.

00:03:46.080 I'm listening to and reading all the top analysts, guys like Nate Silver, Sean Trendy, Nate Cohn, right?

00:03:54.440 And what I'm trying to do is make sense or heads or tails of what's going to happen.

00:03:58.540 I don't want happy talk from either side.

00:04:01.300 And the picture that I think emerges here is that all the fundamentals are there for a Donald Trump victory on Tuesday.

00:04:09.420 The baseline stuff is there for the polls to be off.

00:04:15.700 Now, by the way, if the polls are exactly right, generally speaking, Trump might win a squeaker victory, right, like what we're seeing across battleground states.

00:04:24.080 But if the polling error and if there is a polling error and if it's as profound as we saw in both 2016 and 2020, the only other two times we've seen Donald Trump on the ballot, then that would suggest that Donald Trump's headed for a landslide victory across the across the country.

00:04:41.600 Right. And there's a lot of people that are really smart that are suggesting that that might be the case.

00:04:47.160 Again, guys like Sean Trendy from RealClearPolitics, again, not not not not the most conservative guy in the world.

00:04:53.980 He's just an analyst straight up trying to call it right.

00:04:56.640 Like people like JMC Analytics, people like the like I said, Nate Cohn at The New York Times in the when releasing their final polls this weekend, which were kind of a mixed bag.

00:05:08.340 Right. They have Trump up in Arizona.

00:05:09.960 They have Kamala up in Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia and Wisconsin and tie ballgame in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

00:05:18.300 It just kind of doesn't make much sense when you look at the big picture.

00:05:21.460 But then when you read Nate Cohn's article in The New York Times revealing their stuff and this is a data guy, he knows his stuff.

00:05:27.540 He says that there was a 16 point response bias here where liberals were more likely to answer the polls than conservatives.

00:05:39.020 So that suggests there might be a polling error here.

00:05:42.000 When you read people like Nate Silver, same thing.

00:05:44.740 You see a similar picture.

00:05:45.940 And then when you look at things like, you know, that have come out, you know, the biggest thing that probably came out over the last 24 hours here is the Des Moines Register poll.

00:05:56.200 And frankly, Ann Seltzer is revered by the establishment media.

00:06:00.360 Right. Like so they they look at her as though she is the oracle of what will happen, that the best pollster in the country, you'll hear people say they'll say it's the gold standard, et cetera.

00:06:11.640 And they put out this Des Moines Register poll as Kamala up three in Iowa.

00:06:15.980 And that's a shocker. Right. Like to a lot of people.

00:06:18.480 But then you on the same side, you've got another poll that came out from Emerson College that shows Donald Trump up double digits and doing better than his numbers in 2020.

00:06:28.200 So both things really can't be true unless you're at the extreme ends of both margin of error and that, you know, there's a little crossover there at the extreme ends of both polls if that if that ends up being the case.

00:06:41.920 But the question really becomes, you know, this gets down to the picture of what we've been talking about here, which is that the early vote numbers suggest across the board that this is all going to be a game day operation on Tuesday.

00:06:56.900 And Donald Trump is in a position to win if his supporters come out on mass, if men vote on mass, if white working class voters vote on mass and if Latinos and black voters break a little bit more for Trump than we've seen in the past, as everything is suggesting, then, you know, things are looking good for him.

00:07:17.560 Right. Like so we see leads by Republicans in early voting in Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona in Georgia.

00:07:27.600 We don't have partisan breakdown, but the numbers across the board in Georgia look strong in Pennsylvania.

00:07:33.920 We are seeing significant drop, a significant drop off in turnout in the blackest precincts in the areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

00:07:43.740 We're seeing a similar drop in black turnout in North Carolina, Georgia and other places around the country.

00:07:51.580 There are a lot of smart data guys like Patrick Ruffini from Echelon Insights who have been flagging this stuff.

00:07:59.060 JMC Analytics, John Cuvion has been flagging it as well.

00:08:03.640 So these are smart people that are going through the data.

00:08:06.160 And so what I tried to do here is pull together a picture of where we're at.

00:08:10.920 And by the way, there's there's tons and tons more, if you notice at the end of the article.

00:08:15.020 And I did this in a first person.

00:08:17.000 I generally don't write in the first person because I try to I try to keep it to just the news.

00:08:21.680 But I tried to, you know, and I don't make a formal prediction on what's going to happen in the election.

00:08:26.980 I make that clear up front.

00:08:28.440 But I do kind of lay out throughout the story that all the fundamentals are there for a Trump victory and that people wouldn't be shocked if and when it happens.

00:08:36.420 And, you know, the smart people across the media have been saying this and warning their side about it for some time.

00:08:42.780 But at the same time, Trump voters shouldn't rest on their laurels here going into Tuesday either.

00:08:49.500 They need to turn out like their lives depend on it because, frankly, they do.

00:08:54.180 And the idea that this is in the bag, it's not.

00:08:57.700 Kamala Harris can win this election.

00:08:59.640 If Kamala Harris holds the blue wall, she wins. 0.99

00:09:02.380 Yeah, I want to go to to that now.

00:09:09.180 Let's take the southern states.

00:09:11.080 Well, let me go back.

00:09:12.220 You said something that if you take the numbers as they are in reviewing the numbers that, you know, people have put out that and not question whether there's been response bias or there's this traditional Trump under polling,

00:09:27.280 because I think you get into dangerous territory there, particularly given, hey, it happened in 16.

00:09:32.080 You and I know that because we were very confident we were going to win and we did win.

00:09:36.980 We were down, I think, three and a half the night before.

00:09:39.800 The same thing with with Biden.

00:09:43.160 But but if if you just.

00:09:47.360 Keep the numbers are your walk, walk us through why that is a squeaker victory and what is the path of that victory if the numbers are exactly like they say they are.

00:09:58.180 So the place I would look for that is the Atlas Intel polls.

00:10:01.640 Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, and they have Donald Trump currently leading every single battleground state.

00:10:09.460 But these are tight leads, right?

00:10:12.140 Like so I don't have the numbers exactly in front of me, but I mean, we're talking less than two or three points in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

00:10:24.200 But Donald Trump leads all seven, according to the final polling from Atlas Intel that came out last night.

00:10:30.700 So the that poll would be, you know, that would suggest that.

00:10:35.900 In addition to that, we see an NBC News poll today, which is a national poll that has Donald Trump leading by one in a crowded field.

00:10:45.080 Right. Like if you include all the third party candidates and tied straight up with Kamala Harris.

00:10:50.740 But the the thing that I would and if Donald Trump wins the national popular vote by one percent, he's going to win the Electoral College.

00:10:57.540 I mean, it's hard to see him not winning the Electoral College if that's the case.

00:11:02.100 Right. Like so that is a big deal. And I think that a national popular vote victory for Trump would go a very long way to solidifying his position if he were to win the election on Tuesday.

00:11:15.280 Now, on the flip side of the coin, there are a lot of cautionary tales out there.

00:11:20.900 Right. Like so you don't want to pick and choose and just believe the polls that you that you like.

00:11:25.120 Right. Like so there's also an an ABC News poll today that has Kamala Harris up three nationally. 0.89

00:11:31.360 That's a dangerous territory for Trump. And so, again, it depends on which ones you you believe.

00:11:38.040 Right. It depends on which polls you you you trust in which data you look at that, you know, to inform the picture you've got.

00:11:47.020 The easiest path for Donald Trump to the 270 electoral votes is he holds together everything he had in 2020, including Maine's second district in North Carolina.

00:11:58.540 North Carolina is the only battleground state in there of the seven that we talk about that Trump won in 2020.

00:12:03.960 He flips back Georgia and he flips Pennsylvania.

00:12:06.920 If he does that, Donald Trump gets to exactly 270 votes without anything else.

00:12:12.080 Right. Like without talking about Arizona or Nevada or Wisconsin or Michigan.

00:12:16.340 But there are other pathways for Trump.

00:12:18.500 So in addition to that pathway, if Trump holds everything hinges here on holding North Carolina.

00:12:25.480 And so that's that's really important.

00:12:27.160 And the early vote data in North Carolina is the most promising of any of the states, I would say, because we get the most data.

00:12:33.980 There's been more than four point four million people that have voted in North Carolina already.

00:12:38.240 And the Republicans finished early voting.

00:12:40.620 Early voting ended yesterday.

00:12:42.580 Republicans finished early voting in second place behind unaffiliated voters.

00:12:48.140 Unaffiliated surged at the end.

00:12:50.280 But the the Democrats finished in third place for the first time ever.

00:12:56.320 We've never seen that.

00:12:57.140 And that's a drop in enthusiasm for the Democrats.

00:12:59.760 And a big part of that seems to be a drop off in black voters in a significant way in big numbers.

00:13:07.760 And we're talking to many people who've been studying these North Carolina numbers that that go into detail with that stuff.

00:13:14.480 So and there's been a lot of signs that that's the case.

00:13:16.860 And I know you saw President Trump there in North Carolina.

00:13:19.660 I think he's trying to finish strong and I think he enjoys doing rallies in North Carolina.

00:13:23.660 But frankly, I think North Carolina has been trending his way for quite some time with the early vote numbers.

00:13:30.580 And, you know, that's the that's the most important piece here.

00:13:35.460 Right.

00:13:35.720 He's got to hold North Carolina.

00:13:37.080 He holds North Carolina and then he flips Georgia back.

00:13:40.720 Then if you know, you're you're you're talking about the not getting Pennsylvania, you need then need Arizona plus Wisconsin or Arizona plus Michigan.

00:13:52.260 Or you could do it with Nevada plus Michigan.

00:13:55.160 Right.

00:13:55.800 But there are plenty of different pathways that Donald Trump has to the 270 electoral votes at Arizona looks like it is going to go for Trump.

00:14:04.680 Right. Like so based off of what we're seeing in the early vote data, the guys like Charlie Kirk and Turning Point Action have done what they said they were going to do.

00:14:13.900 They went out and they turned out these low propensity voters.

00:14:17.020 That's what the data shows at this point.

00:14:19.980 And go ahead.

00:14:23.320 Yeah. Just hang on for a second.

00:14:24.980 We're going to take a short break.

00:14:26.160 Matt Bowles with us walking through various scenarios.

00:14:30.400 We're going to talk about she has been limited from many paths now, basically through the blue wall.

00:14:37.120 But we are talking about a little bit about North Carolina.

00:14:40.300 Short commercial break.

00:14:41.780 National political editor at Breitbart.

00:14:45.100 Matt Boyle joins us.

00:14:46.520 Major peace out today.

00:14:47.720 We're pushing out everywhere.

00:14:48.940 Back in the war room.

00:14:50.120 Just a moment.

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00:16:13.620 Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon.

00:16:18.240 Okay, Matt Boyle joins us.

00:16:20.160 I want to thank Real America's Voices.

00:16:21.920 This is extra bonus coverage on Mass Mobilization Weekend.

00:16:26.280 Folks have been out canvassing all day throughout the country.

00:16:29.740 We're going to check in with some of those folks.

00:16:31.020 I wanted Matt to come on.

00:16:32.180 Matt, North Carolina, you know, a lot of talk.

00:16:37.440 And I've kind of been saying, hey, if you look at these numbers, they didn't build a firewall anywhere, particularly in Pennsylvania.

00:16:43.680 But there are no firewalls.

00:16:45.480 And so if you look at North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, it really she's got to be focused on holding the blue wall or she's done.

00:16:52.580 And that's where she's spending her time. 0.91

00:16:54.900 Now, a lot of operatives, Democratic operatives, and they're going, oh, they just have to have an above average game day turnout on Tuesday and they can win North Carolina.

00:17:04.060 It seems to me, and you're dialed into a lot of the Democrats behind the scenes.

00:17:10.500 It seems to me that no one in the Democratic Party wants to address the elephant in the room.

00:17:17.040 And that is they are in free fall with black men as far as coming out to vote for them. 0.95

00:17:25.540 In Pennsylvania, it's shocking. 0.87

00:17:27.120 In Philadelphia, it's shocking.

00:17:28.740 In North Carolina, it's shocking.

00:17:30.060 And guess what?

00:17:31.500 Kamala Harris understands that.

00:17:33.220 That's why, Matt, on the day before election, she's going back to Philadelphia where if you've got to go back to some place that should be your base, you've got a big problem.

00:17:42.700 Your thoughts, sir?

00:17:43.380 Yeah, well, it's similar to Hillary, right? 1.00

00:17:46.100 Like, remember Hillary at the very end of the 2016 campaign?

00:17:49.220 And so the panic setting in, you know who gets it is Barack Obama.

00:17:53.420 That's why weeks ago he was out there lecturing black men, right? 0.99

00:17:56.340 Like telling them they had to go out and vote for it and that they were racist and sexist if they didn't, right?

00:18:00.860 Like, and so the fact is, is that we're seeing it's not just in Philadelphia, right?

00:18:07.080 The phenomenon you described, the data bears it out that it's playing out in Milwaukee.

00:18:12.820 It's playing out in Charlotte.

00:18:14.440 It's playing out in Atlanta, right?

00:18:18.640 Like, and this may be a big story.

00:18:21.020 And frankly, one of the things I cite in this story is, again, JMC Analytics, John Kuvian, he's one of the better data guys in the country, tends to be a Republican pollster.

00:18:30.060 But what he did, he's based in New Orleans.

00:18:33.160 He says it's happening there, too.

00:18:34.780 Now, let me be frank here.

00:18:37.020 Donald Trump is going to win the state of Louisiana.

00:18:38.960 That's not even close to in question here.

00:18:42.460 But what you can glean from states like Louisiana with their early vote numbers is some of the national trends, right?

00:18:49.260 Like, so when you see a massive drop in black vote in Louisiana, that's a major problem for the Democrats nationally because it's a trend that's happening across the country, coast to coast.

00:18:59.860 Now, I am not spiking the football in the back of the end zone yet, okay?

00:19:04.120 Like, we're not doing the Lambeau leap here, right?

00:19:06.280 Like, it's time to, like, we need to actually see this actually through and see it play out.

00:19:12.460 Believe me, I have seen this movie a million times before where everybody's saying the black vote's not coming, the black vote's not coming, and then the black vote comes on Election Day, right? 0.96

00:19:21.180 A perfect example reminds me a lot of his Alabama Senate race in 2017, the special election there, right?

00:19:27.340 Like, that's what everybody thought.

00:19:28.560 But the difference between then and now is that then we were basing this on polls.

00:19:32.640 And, yes, we've seen polling data throughout the course of this year where everybody has been warning about this.

00:19:37.740 In fact, one of the things I cite in that big story is Harry Anton from CNN, another one of these data guys who knows what he's talking about,

00:19:45.460 who said that the stuff has all the warning signs have been there all along if Donald Trump ends up winning this thing.

00:19:51.420 Now, he also did a similar segment saying the warning signs would be there all along if Kamala wins this thing.

00:19:57.080 And, again, I'm not calling the election right now, and I'm not making a prediction.

00:20:00.780 But what I am saying is that the fundamentals are there for Trump if this demographic shift seems to hold.

00:20:07.720 And it looks like it is based off of the early stuff that we're seeing.

00:20:10.720 Now, they still have until Tuesday night when the polls close to be able to deliver these votes.

00:20:14.500 So, you know, we'll see if they can get it done.

00:20:17.120 Maybe they can, right?

00:20:18.180 Like, you know, we'll see if the Harry Reid machine kicks into gear in Nevada.

00:20:22.320 I don't know.

00:20:23.580 Yeah.

00:20:24.000 Let's – okay.

00:20:25.320 They had banked in 2020 by this day 1.1 million mail-in votes.

00:20:33.080 Okay?

00:20:33.720 Now they've got 400,000.

00:20:35.220 They have a 700,000 vote gap.

00:20:38.400 Given your analysis of how they've done on game day, they're running around now.

00:20:43.760 Social media is being flooded, as you know, sir, in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

00:20:48.180 About how amazing her ground game is.

00:20:51.740 How amazing her canvassers are.

00:20:53.800 How Elon Musk got ripped off.

00:20:55.900 How people are not really on top of it.

00:20:57.620 The Trump ground game operation, since they farmed it out to the outside groups and to people like the War Room Posse, people like this.

00:21:04.400 It's not controlled by the campaign.

00:21:06.900 It's very dysfunctional.

00:21:08.080 It's good in some places, non-existent in others.

00:21:10.400 Where she's going to knock on a million doors today, etc. 0.72

00:21:13.720 Do you buy that?

00:21:15.440 Do you buy that they can represent, given that they haven't been – they haven't been as tough on election days as they are earlier?

00:21:24.100 Because they now – they kind of – they're the first group to really look at this as election month, sir.

00:21:28.300 Well, it's as if expecting a rookie quarterback is going to come into the football game and put up a Tom Brady performance, right?

00:21:36.320 Like, and lead a game-winning drive or something like that.

00:21:38.440 I just watched my New England Patriots, you know, almost get there, right?

00:21:42.060 They got the tying touchdown.

00:21:43.660 They didn't win the game, but, you know, the kids got a lot to learn.

00:21:48.780 In the case of Kamala Harris, she is not Barack Obama, okay?

00:21:52.180 Like, it is abundantly clear that she does not have the influence and the sway over their base and their folks are not as fired up as that.

00:22:01.920 Now, again, never discount the ability of Democrats to actually turn it around and possibly pull it off, right?

00:22:08.040 So that's the word of caution here, but there is a lot of – a lot to be optimistic about headed into Tuesday.

00:22:13.720 So I do think that it is unlikely that the Democrats all of a sudden, for the first time ever,

00:22:21.720 develop the best-ever Election Day turnout operation that we've never seen before out of them, at least in the modern era.

00:22:29.140 And I do think that on the Republican side, we are going to see very strong numbers.

00:22:34.060 I think it's safe to say that Donald Trump is going to perform at or possibly even above his 2020 performance in many respects,

00:22:44.580 in that I think that Kamala Harris is going to have real trouble putting up Joe Biden numbers, right? 0.99

00:22:49.520 Like, and so we'll see.

00:22:52.160 But as for all of these different groups, it's a new novel way of doing things, so it's hard to judge at this point.

00:22:58.540 I tend to cast a lot of doubt on these establishment media reports, ripping Elon Musk's groups and Charlie Kirk's group and all the other ones.

00:23:07.860 We'll see.

00:23:08.660 We'll see how it goes, right?

00:23:09.880 Like, we'll know on Tuesday night if it worked or not, right?

00:23:12.860 And so – but all indications are – and I'm talking to a lot of people with all of these different groups on the right,

00:23:18.480 and everything I'm hearing back is that they – what they have done has worked, right?

00:23:23.540 Like, so we'll see.

00:23:25.980 What are you going to look for in the next 24 hours?

00:23:30.380 What are the things that Matt Boyle's looking for tonight and tomorrow up to the eve of game day?

00:23:38.140 Yeah, so John Ralston in Nevada from the Nevada Independent is supposed to make a prediction this evening or tomorrow about what he thinks is going to happen in Nevada.

00:23:46.400 If he predicts that Donald Trump will win Nevada based off the numbers, because what we've seen is the in-person vote ended in Nevada,

00:23:55.260 and Kamala Harris – or the Democrats kind of caught up a little bit. 0.94

00:23:59.320 It's not technically by the candidates, it's by the party.

00:24:02.140 But the Democrats kind of caught up a little bit in the first little batch of mail afterwards.

00:24:06.340 But the Republican lead there in Nevada is very strong.

00:24:08.960 So if his prediction starts – you know, comes down with a Trump prediction or a Trump likely prediction or something like that,

00:24:16.260 that I think would be a bad sign for Kamala Harris. 1.00

00:24:19.100 Now, Nevada doesn't really fit into too many, you know, tight paths to 270,

00:24:24.860 but it is the furthest left of the battleground states, at least traditionally.

00:24:28.900 It's the one battleground state that Trump has never won, right?

00:24:31.840 Like, Trump did not win Nevada in 2016 or 2020, and he has won each of these other states at least once, right?

00:24:39.720 Like, and he's been on the ballot twice, this is his third time on the ballot as a presidential candidate.

00:24:44.200 So I will be very much watching Nevada for that reason.

00:24:48.240 I'm also keeping close eyes on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, obviously any sign that we can get out of those places

00:24:55.560 about where things are going to go.

00:24:57.300 But the early vote is over in North Carolina, and we have a pretty clear picture there.

00:25:01.860 Things are looking dire for the Democrats there.

00:25:04.720 In Georgia, it's looking pretty bad for them.

00:25:08.340 Arizona is looking pretty bad for them.

00:25:09.820 So we'll see if Nevada can join the rest of the Sunbelt states in kind of moving out of reach for Kamala Harris. 0.99

00:25:16.700 And then that's what –

00:25:18.140 They finished the vote, but don't they have a big drop that will come tomorrow morning?

00:25:23.960 Aren't they holding back or it takes them all to go through it?

00:25:25.920 I thought I understood that there would be a drop either late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

00:25:29.800 You're saying that the drop is already done, and we now know those numbers that were up 40 minutes.

00:25:35.200 Yeah, and the other states are done, right?

00:25:37.620 Like, so North Carolina is done.

00:25:39.220 But Nevada is – they still have little bits of mail.

00:25:42.920 But the problem is that the Democrats aren't catching up in these – enough in these mail things in terms of cutting into the Republican lead.

00:25:50.860 So the question is, is what's that Republican lead look like going into Election Day?

00:25:56.520 If it's north of 30,000 – right now it's north of 40,000.

00:25:59.540 It's like 42.

00:26:00.620 But if it's north of 30,000 going into Election Day, it's real bad for the Democrats.

00:26:06.020 Kamala Harris will probably have to win independence by double digits or close to it in that scenario. 1.00

00:26:11.300 And that seems unlikely, right?

00:26:13.680 Like, so I can't see independence breaking double digits either way for either candidate.

00:26:18.840 And a similar situation in North Carolina, by the way.

00:26:21.840 Yeah, she would need to win North Carolina. 0.98

00:26:24.840 Real quickly, Wisconsin, because I think on the blue wall, Wisconsin may be the one that comes our way over Pennsylvania.

00:26:34.180 Your thoughts on Wisconsin?

00:26:35.060 Yeah, the data in Wisconsin show that it's a lot easier to make up the difference from the 2020 margin with low propensity voters.

00:26:46.700 The guys at Turning Point zoned in on this very early this year.

00:26:51.100 And I know they have their ballot chasing operation and full-time staffers on the ground in Wisconsin.

00:26:56.660 It's tough to tell with Wisconsin because you don't have the partisan data coming out with regard to the early vote numbers.

00:27:03.300 But what we are seeing are anecdotal data from, you know, rural areas that are Trump-heavy that look strong, and the cities are looking low.

00:27:12.380 In fact, that trend that we were talking about with the black vote, Milwaukee City, seems very low in terms of the turnout in the early votes.

00:27:20.500 So a lot of good signs out of Wisconsin for Trump.

00:27:26.100 Boyle, social media, Breitbart, where do they go?

00:27:28.680 Yeah, just mboyle1 on Twitter or X, and true social, at real Matt Boyle, and just go to breitbart.com.

00:27:37.220 Our team's going to be working around the clock.

00:27:40.900 It's a big analytical piece.

00:27:42.520 Get a cup of coffee, curl up with it, and drill down to Matt Boyle's special.

00:27:46.780 Matt, thank you.

00:27:47.820 Honored to have you on here.

00:27:48.760 Talk to you tomorrow, sir.

00:27:49.760 Time to be blind.

00:27:51.400 Open your mind to see.

00:27:53.400 Short commercial break.

00:27:55.260 We're going to talk to a federal, we're going to talk to an FEC professional.

00:28:01.940 I think commercial about this.

00:28:03.840 The FCC.

00:28:04.560 Oh, FCC.

00:28:05.380 We're going to talk to, okay.

00:28:07.040 Next, about Saturday Night Live.

00:28:12.740 For 10 years, Patriot Mobile has been America's only Christian conservative wireless provider.

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00:29:17.500 Action, action, action.

00:29:19.360 I wish I could talk to someone who's been in my shoes, you know, a black South Asian woman running 1.00

00:29:26.820 for president, preferably from the Bay Area.

00:29:29.620 Thank you.

00:29:59.620 You and me both, sister.

00:30:02.220 It is nice to see you, Kamala.

00:30:04.340 It is nice to see you, Kamala.

00:30:06.340 And I'm just here to remind you, you got this.

00:30:10.000 Because you can do something your opponent cannot do.

00:30:13.660 You can open doors.

00:30:20.980 I see what you did there.

00:30:22.360 Like to a garbage truck, right?

00:30:23.900 I don't really laugh like that, do I?

00:30:30.980 Oh, a little bit.

00:30:34.200 Now, Kamala, take my Pamala. 1.00

00:30:36.560 The American people want to stop the chaos.

00:30:42.780 And end the Dramala.

00:30:45.480 With a cool new step-mamala.

00:30:48.440 Kick back in our pajamas and watch a Ram Kamala. 0.73

00:30:54.080 Like Legally Blondala. 0.98

00:30:55.780 And start decorating for Christmas.

00:30:59.540 Fa-la-la-la-la. 0.99

00:31:02.240 Because what do we always say?

00:31:04.420 Keep Kamala and carry-on-a-la. 1.00

00:31:06.760 We know each other so well.

00:31:16.840 We even finish each other's belief in the promise of America.

00:31:21.840 Now, come on.

00:31:24.220 Let's bring it in.

00:31:25.320 I got to tell myself something over here.

00:31:27.240 Come here.

00:31:27.520 I'm going to tell you something.

00:31:39.240 I'm going to vote for us.

00:31:41.460 Great.

00:31:42.200 Any chance you are registered in Pennsylvania.

00:31:45.940 Nope, I am not.

00:31:47.800 Well, it was worth a shot.

00:31:49.560 And live from New York, it's out.

00:31:55.480 Okay, welcome back to the War Room.

00:31:57.780 Let's leave the cringe element of that aside for a second.

00:32:02.340 The lack of humor and also the lack of gravitas.

00:32:05.600 I want to bring in Nathan Simonton now.

00:32:07.840 He's a commissioner with the Federal Communications Commission.

00:32:11.340 Nathan, walk me through what I just saw.

00:32:13.900 Because Lauren Roberts came out, I think, a couple of months ago.

00:32:17.820 And said he was not going to have either candidate on.

00:32:20.560 Because to have one, he had to have the other.

00:32:22.740 He just wasn't going to do that.

00:32:25.100 What did we see last night?

00:32:26.420 Was that legal?

00:32:28.140 You know, this is an area that's been explored sort of recently.

00:32:33.580 As you say, Laura Michaels said that you shouldn't bring the people who are running on because of election laws and equal time provisions. 0.57

00:32:41.120 Because after all, if you have the main candidates, equal time says you have to have all the candidates.

00:32:46.020 There are lots of minor candidates.

00:32:47.380 I think he gave the example of three states.

00:32:50.060 It becomes complicated quickly.

00:32:51.340 So NBC, I think, clearly recognized there was a potential problem.

00:32:55.360 And the last time that this was an issue was in 2015, when NBC did, in fact, provide airtime to Republican primary candidates after an SNL episode hosted by then-candidate, now President Trump.

00:33:07.120 NBC recognized that this was a legitimate request and granted airtime to those candidates on broadcast affiliates in swing states.

00:33:13.960 So I guess I would say that the doctrine is pretty straightforward.

00:33:18.080 If you read the Communications Act, it's in Section 315.

00:33:20.940 It says that broadcasters have to provide equal time, and that means in terms of minutes of access to their broadcast signal, to legally qualified candidates for public office on their airwaves.

00:33:32.580 I think, you know, I think President Trump is pretty much the classic case of a legally qualified candidate for public office.

00:33:41.440 The only exception to this is what's called a bona fide news exception, and I don't think SNL has such an exception.

00:33:48.760 So I think, you know, when Commissioner Carr started identifying the legal issue here, he was in the right to identify it and bring it forward.

00:33:54.420 So there's only, what, 24, 48 hours before Election Day.

00:34:02.920 What can be done?

00:34:04.220 Are you saying that, given your interpretation of the way equal time is, that Donald Trump ought to get on NBC affiliates equal time?

00:34:14.500 I think that was two minutes, two and a half minutes.

00:34:16.800 Are you saying that that's what should happen and happen tomorrow because the Election Day is Tuesday?

00:34:22.580 I mean, that would certainly be one way for NBC to ensure that there wasn't any potential issue.

00:34:32.400 On the other hand, is the FCC going to make an order that they do that within the next 30 hours or so?

00:34:38.860 I don't, I don't, I just don't see that happening.

00:34:41.660 I just, I just don't see a road to the commission.

00:34:44.060 Well, first of all, to the current commission leadership making the decision to make that request of NBC and then NBC would have to do it.

00:34:51.000 And then President Trump would have to agree to it and shoot the spot and et cetera, et cetera.

00:34:56.100 It doesn't seem like in a practical sense, that's what's likely to happen.

00:34:59.740 So I'm not sure where this leaves us.

00:35:01.540 I'm frankly not sure why we're in a position to have to be having to be asking this question at this point.

00:35:08.320 Well, it is because they wanted, they're desperate.

00:35:13.040 They got to get, they had to get her out by, and it'd be seen by many people as possible.

00:35:18.960 That's where they took the risk.

00:35:20.360 There's nothing, there's no emergency committee meeting that the FCC can have and issue some edict.

00:35:26.400 President Trump doesn't have to cut a spot.

00:35:27.980 They could just go to the broadcast affiliates.

00:35:30.220 They just go to the broadcast affiliates and put him on.

00:35:33.720 Could they not?

00:35:34.200 I mean, if it's equal time, I think my producer, I think this was a two-minute cold open for Saturday Night Live.

00:35:42.020 It was so short, and I heard that Kamala Harris had to go and show up all day to practice for that, which looked pretty simple. 0.97

00:35:49.900 But it's two minutes.

00:35:51.460 Couldn't you just get the broadcast, their own and operated stations, which are the biggest stations in the biggest markets in the country,

00:35:58.360 just have Trump on Skype or have Trump in a studio and let him do a two-minute riff?

00:36:04.200 I mean, after all, we saw on the Rogan show that doing a two-minute riff would not be a huge challenge for President Trump.

00:36:10.840 So I agree with your analysis about how easy it would be to remedy this in the closing hours of the campaign.

00:36:17.960 I want to point out that Commissioner Carr conjectured in his statement on this that the SNL appearance was designed to deprive the Trump campaign of the opportunity to make a legitimate request for equal time.

00:36:30.580 Now, I'm not sure what the campaign is doing internally, but it would certainly send a signal if they were to make such a request and such requests were not to be granted.

00:36:38.180 As you point out, it would be something that President Trump is demonstrably able to fulfill.

00:36:43.480 Now, one of my advisors commented that the appearance on SNL by the Democratic candidate was so wooden and unfunny that maybe NBC should actually deduct time from the Trump campaign somehow.

00:36:57.320 I found that sort of amusing. But setting that to one side, I guess the point is that if the Trump campaign doesn't have time to get this done for whatever reason, that's hardly their fault.

00:37:10.700 And it's hardly their fault that they've been put in a position to have to deal with this at the last moment when, you know, President Trump's schedule has no doubt been booked down to the second for months in advance.

00:37:21.940 I guess what I would say is it just seems like an unforced error on the parts of of people who should be aware that there are equal time requirements.

00:37:32.020 Oh, holy, hang on. Ho, ho, ho, ho, ho, ho, yo, yo, bro. It's not an unforced error. Nothing's right now. Nothing's going to happen. That's their advantage. The unforced error is on the FCC.

00:37:44.160 I'm not pointing fingers at you guys, but they thought this through. They thought this through. They knew later on a Saturday night, you'd have a Sunday with Trump running around you guys out, you know, not in the office and then Monday and then it's done.

00:37:55.800 So it's not an unforced error. It's very well thought through and it's kind of in your grill. My question is the law is the law. Are you going to let NBC game the system or is the FCC going to sit there and go, no, hey, you're going to give them two minutes and then throw it back to the Trump campaign?

00:38:12.160 Right. If the Trump campaign doesn't use the two minutes, that's on the Trump campaign. You're not you're not responsible for what they do, but you're the FCC is definitely responsible for not letting the demons at NBC and Lauren Michaels.

00:38:26.320 These guys perfectly get they game the system. So if they're not held accountable. So go ahead.

00:38:33.420 No, you make a great point there. The requirement is that equal time be provided. And it's you know, there's there's no there's no proviso in there that, you know, if logistics don't make it possible.

00:38:43.580 No, you make a I think a really good point that this is, in fact, a challenge to the FCC to see whether we're serious about broadcast regulation issues that were thought to be non controversial, including by NBC and SNL leadership until, you know, until five minutes ago or whenever this clip initially aired.

00:39:02.120 As far as far as what the FCC can do in practical terms, our governance doesn't give me a way to unilaterally act on this.

00:39:11.660 Unfortunately, the the chair could initiate action and the the chair could it could call up staff and request that action be initiated.

00:39:20.280 As far as I'm aware, that's not happening. And and there's there's no way for me or for the Republican minority on the commission to force a vote on this.

00:39:29.260 Unfortunately, we can protest strongly for all the good it'll do.

00:39:34.020 But but there's no way we can force a vote. There's no mechanism that we can use to compel the staff to act on this.

00:39:40.820 So because the the commission is controlled by Democrats and that's traditional when Republicans, there's controlled by Republicans, they can game the system, essentially break the law and and just get away with it.

00:39:55.780 That's so it's just it's just the rule of these are the guys that believe in democracy so much they believe in the rule of law.

00:40:01.000 We get lectured about that every day. We just have to suck on it. 0.99

00:40:04.300 Is that essentially your point? 0.98

00:40:07.720 Well, put it this way, if if we were to if we were to see an in kind contribution or free airtime in some way provided to humanize and make President Trump relatable on, for example, Fox broadcast,

00:40:21.540 I have a hard time believing that that that would that that it would be politically acceptable for Democratic Commission leadership to let that pass without comment.

00:40:31.800 And so you're asking now that the shoes on the other foot, are we are we left without a remedy?

00:40:37.440 And I would say that we probably are left without a remedy before Election Day, unless unless unless the commission chair decides to act on this.

00:40:48.940 Obviously, you know, I've got a point of view on this. Commissioner Carr's got a point of view on this.

00:40:52.460 I would say that it's just enough in the cracks and crevices as far as whether or not this constitutes violation of the equal time rule that it's possible for the chair to punt and to say, well, maybe it does.

00:41:04.740 Maybe it doesn't. Let's convene. Let's convene a group to consider the issue.

00:41:08.380 Other than that, I don't know. Don't know what the remedy is on this short notice.

00:41:11.260 Now, as for as for post-factor remedies such as, you know, such as a lawsuit or other process, obviously, those still remain on the table.

00:41:19.500 However, I think your point is that the election may obviate the opportunity to reach those remedies.

00:41:25.600 Yeah. Nathan, how do people track you down on social media? How do they follow you?

00:41:31.140 Well, I'm at Symington FCC on X, formerly known as Twitter. That's the main way.

00:41:35.940 I'm not typically all that active on social media. I'm a more behind the scenes technical type.

00:41:42.140 But but lately with with media regulation, I've had to get a little bit more active.

00:41:47.520 And, you know, and and of course, apart from that, I really do answer my email and my staff answer their emails as well.

00:41:55.020 We were public servants and we take this take this seriously.

00:41:58.380 Just last week, we had in someone, for example, who had sent us a cold email about being kicked out of the RDOF rural broadband program.

00:42:05.340 So it's your audience should absolutely feel free to reach out to their public servants if they want information about how the complaint mechanism works at the commission.

00:42:14.660 That's obviously something that we'd be happy to provide as well as support through the process.

00:42:18.420 So, you know, reach out and touch us.

00:42:22.500 Nathan, thank you so much for coming on and talking to us on a Sunday evening. Appreciate you.

00:42:27.220 It's my pleasure, Steve. Good to have you back.

00:42:29.460 You know, you knew it doesn't you don't need to talk about the bias of Saturday Night Live is pretty very obvious for, you know, decades and decades and decades.

00:42:41.400 It's just the the blatant Lauren Roberts saying, I'm not going to do this.

00:42:45.400 And then at the last second, they slip it in.

00:42:47.700 Here's the good news.

00:42:49.160 It was so cringe.

00:42:51.560 I actually think it hurt her even with that crowd. 0.54

00:42:54.140 She's so talentless.

00:42:56.820 It's it's just it just jumps off the screen.

00:42:59.620 OK, short commercial break.

00:43:01.040 Somebody is not talentless is.

00:43:05.440 Sister Chata out in Nevada, and we got great news out there.

00:43:09.880 But I got to tell you, is it a wave of the Culinary Institute, the Culinary Union votes going to come in?

00:43:18.280 We're going to talk to her.

00:43:19.160 I want to warn you of a huge change that could be coming to our money in our bank accounts.

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00:43:37.380 Now, Jim Rickards, editor of the independent financial newsletter Strategic Intelligence and New York Times bestselling author,

00:43:44.040 is warning about a coming event that could elevate this governmental surveillance to a terrifying new level.

00:43:50.600 In fact, some of the guests I've had on The War Room believe that the government will soon expand their powers to track our every move.

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00:44:08.340 I can't say for sure if this will happen, but it's an interesting and dire warning.

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00:44:38.340 Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon.

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00:46:55.000 Dave Bratz with me.

00:46:56.500 Here's where we stand.

00:46:59.160 We're going to do more analytical work.

00:47:00.740 But the polling, whether the polling is good or the polling is bad is not relevant right now.

00:47:09.540 It's interesting and it can inform your opinion.

00:47:12.520 There's some polls I happen to see.

00:47:15.460 Real clear politics, and I keep saying the real clear politics average is the best way to get a sense of it.

00:47:21.200 And they've got an analysis out today of kind of their poll of polls of everything, Dave Bratz, where they say, hey, Trump has a, quote, unquote, narrow path to a victory.

00:47:33.340 Now, I know a lot of guys say it's going to be a landslide and there's going to be a blowout.

00:47:36.540 Hey, that may all be true.

00:47:38.080 And that's fine.

00:47:39.420 That's what I call upside.

00:47:41.320 Like an upside and a deal.

00:47:42.440 But the basic core of this, of the game, is to get to 270 and to hold the House of Representatives, even if it's only by a couple of seats.

00:47:51.700 And I think we may have a pickup or two.

00:47:54.660 And to take the Senate. 0.94

00:47:56.000 And I think because of the work you've done in places like West Virginia and Montana, that looks like very doable.

00:47:59.920 So we have a stunning an opportunity for a trifecta win here and go back to 16.

00:48:08.120 The last time we did that, we snuck up on them.

00:48:11.160 We snuck up on them in 16.

00:48:12.860 They didn't take it seriously.

00:48:14.920 We had a plan.

00:48:16.020 The plan's very much, you know, we drew an inside straight.

00:48:19.440 We won every battleground state that was contested.

00:48:22.160 We won it back in those days.

00:48:23.340 Ohio and Florida were still, that's when they started moving out of being battlegrounds, even Iowa.

00:48:27.740 We had to spend time on those.

00:48:29.760 So throw those three in there. 1.00

00:48:31.460 And I think we won New Hampshire.

00:48:32.860 But that's a conversation for a different day.

00:48:36.840 Today's different.

00:48:38.160 Now, what they haven't done, some of the polls, is they're taking a voter file from 2020 and kind of layering on today.

00:48:45.280 That's obviously the electorate has changed.

00:48:47.580 It's shifted.

00:48:48.100 It's shifted our way.

00:48:50.020 Why is that?

00:48:51.180 The reality of the Biden regime and the new ecosystem of media on the right,

00:48:56.780 of which war rooms are part of that.

00:48:58.440 But you got the Charlie Kirk show, Real America's Voice, Jack Posobiec, and many, many, many others

00:49:03.580 that came about a lot of it during the pandemic, that people now go and get their information.

00:49:09.080 This ecosystem on the right is much more powerful than cable TV.

00:49:13.000 How do I?

00:49:13.340 How do you know that, Steve?

00:49:14.240 How's that?

00:49:14.580 Well, because Kevin McCarthy ain't speaker of the House.

00:49:17.280 OK.

00:49:18.320 The first big fight was about Trump back in 15 and 16.

00:49:21.240 We beat Fox and the cable news guys then, right, for supporting Trump.

00:49:26.520 And the other big one was Kevin McCarthy.

00:49:29.340 We won.

00:49:29.860 They lost.

00:49:31.080 So the ecosystem on the right is very powerful.

00:49:34.520 And the ecosystem on the right is, right now, focused on get out the vote.

00:49:39.480 Victories in the grass.

00:49:40.400 I put that out a couple weeks ago.

00:49:41.660 September 26 from Danbury Federal Prison.

00:49:45.040 I think it's the only thing I actually put out the entire time there.

00:49:48.560 I had to because I saw with about a month or so, six weeks to go, how this was going

00:49:54.380 to line up in that we could be positioned on the weekend beforehand exactly where we wanted

00:50:01.620 to be, where it was all within our grass, that if we turned out in North Carolina, turned

00:50:04.900 out in Georgia and turned out in Arizona, turned out in Nevada, that we could roll those

00:50:08.880 up, that people had done the work on the early voting side.

00:50:11.800 So this is all about you have to do it and then back her into a corner up into the blue

00:50:19.000 wall and, you know, cut off all of her possible avenues for victory, except she's got to carry 1.00

00:50:25.620 the blue wall.

00:50:26.320 And then, hey, let's throw down in Wisconsin.

00:50:28.880 Let's throw down in Pennsylvania.

00:50:30.440 Let's turn out in Michigan.

00:50:32.060 We take any we take any one of those.

00:50:34.740 We win.

00:50:35.400 She loses.

00:50:35.820 So of the positioning of this, we could we couldn't be in better shape.

00:50:40.880 Now we have to execute.

00:50:42.620 Why are we in good shape?

00:50:43.940 You.

00:50:45.120 So I'm sitting here thinking, hey, the same people that we have to basically be defined,

00:50:52.880 you know, they have defined this era.

00:50:55.080 The MAGA movement are now the people they represent on Election Day.

00:50:59.340 And on Election Days, they've done tremendous jobs versus people that haven't.

00:51:02.900 They've been the Democrats, because the Democrats always use early voting, mail-in voting, all

00:51:06.940 of that.

00:51:07.840 And they gun deck these rules to, you know, like in Georgia this weekend.

00:51:11.180 Oh, yeah.

00:51:11.660 Come on in.

00:51:12.100 You get access here over the weekend, et cetera.

00:51:16.380 We're right on the cusp of it.

00:51:19.140 All your hard work and all your efforts to save your country is all.

00:51:29.120 All there.

00:51:31.100 And we can save this country.

00:51:32.900 Get out the vote in election integrity.

00:51:35.960 And all of you that have volunteered to be election judges, you're going to be vilified.

00:51:39.280 You're going to be say terrible things about you. 1.00

00:51:41.460 All these get to all these fascists, all this garbage. 1.00

00:51:44.740 Why is there so much garbage in the counting? 1.00

00:51:48.440 Well, Joe Biden. 0.98

00:51:51.400 That's because the people are represented, they're represented and they're going to represent on

00:51:54.800 Tuesdays.

00:51:55.600 You do not have the consent of the governed.

00:51:57.700 We will never, ever, ever consent to what you did because you're not legitimate.

00:52:05.940 And hey, you're going to have plenty of time to show me where those votes are.

00:52:10.640 You're going to have plenty of time.

00:52:11.580 Where are they?

00:52:12.200 Those low propensity voters from 2020.

00:52:14.200 Where are they?

00:52:15.260 Oh, they only hated Trump then.

00:52:16.660 No, they hate you guys hate Trump more now than then.

00:52:20.260 So that's a lie on top of all your other lies.

00:52:25.040 A lot's going to be exposed here, folks.

00:52:27.160 You are living in historic times.

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Bannon's War Room - November 04, 2024

Episode 4028： Mass Mobilization Weekend： Pathways For Trump

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