Jim Rickards joins us to talk about an MSNBC article on the bond market and the bond vigilantes of the 1980s and 90s. He also talks about why the Fed is not as strong as it appears and why they should be worried about it.
00:05:09.000Jack, but so is going to join me with Jim Rickerts is going to play it.
00:05:13.000You know, here, John, here's what I'm really hoping.
00:05:15.000I'm hoping that Jake Sullivan talked to Michael Walsh, who's going to be incoming national security advisor or President Biden's talk to President Trump and said, here's what I'm going to do.
00:05:23.000I'm really hoping that happened because what he has done, Biden through his action, he's actually given President Trump more leverage.
00:16:24.000Okay, folks, of everything that's going on, it's so much, we're trying to make sure we keep these different verticals so you know we can tie it all together.
00:16:35.000The one that's getting increasingly dangerous every day is this Third World War on the Eurasian landmass.
00:16:42.000Now up in Syria, it's the Persians and the Russians, we said for years, you got to make sure that the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing and the KGB in Moscow, coupled with the Persians in Tehran, cannot merge together.
00:16:59.000Jack Bosobik, brought me through the war against the empire.
00:17:02.000Well, particularly now, what we're seeing here in Syria, it can't be de-linked from Erdogan and his goal of establishing a neo-Ottoman caliphate.
00:17:17.000So I've said for years, he's part of this with Russia and with the Persians.
00:17:22.000Well, there's an interesting wild card that Erdogan's playing a very dangerous game right now because he has linked up with Russia in the past.
00:17:31.000However, on Syria, he is in direct opposition with Russia because Russia backs Assad.
00:17:37.000So what he's doing is pushing down through those northern areas. Why?
00:17:40.000Because they want Aleppo. They want to establish the buffer zone there.
00:17:43.000And then what is just to the east of that, of course, is Kurdistan.
00:17:47.000And they want all of Kurdistan, by the way, to include, wait for it, the Iraqi side.
00:17:52.000He wants Iraqi territory. He wants complete control of those border crossings.
00:17:56.000This is how ISIS was able to come to power because they controlled the oil lands.
00:18:00.000They controlled the border crossings. And then they were the ones selling oil to, wait for it, Erdogan's son,
00:18:06.000when all of that was going on. That's how ISIS was able to expand so quickly because they were selling the oil out of Kurdistan.
00:18:12.000They controlled all of it. Manbij, as we talked about yesterday, that's where Shannon Kent made the ultimate sacrifice.
00:18:19.000And Joe Kent's wife, who lost her life there in the middle of all this because we had American troops in the middle of this absolute hornet's nest.
00:18:28.000But what you're looking at writ large, you put all of it together.
00:18:32.000You got Hezbollah in the south. You got Syria. You got the Turks. You got the Russians, of course, playing in there as well.
00:18:36.000Wagner is still in, to an extent, though not the way they were before.
00:18:39.000The U.S. is still in, to an extent, not the way they were before.
00:18:42.000The Kurds are trying to find anybody who will support them at this point.
00:18:45.000You tie all that back. Israel, of course, is on the southern end of Syria.
00:18:49.000That's with Hezbollah as well. With their fight in Lebanon, that's what gives the Turks a free reign up there.
00:18:54.000Tie that back Russia and Ukraine. So Russia and Ukraine now, this is peace.
00:18:58.000Talk to me about that because there's three interlocking pieces of this.
00:19:03.000The pardon for Hunter Biden that goes all the way back to January 2014, the beginning of the color revolution.
00:19:09.000You have, as one of the engine room members are telling me, that the administrative state and the deep state,
00:19:14.000really the rise of intel becomes their ability to kind of form the deep state, right?
00:19:19.000That is the rise of war. And in Ukraine is the center of that. And that's why they defended so much,
00:19:24.000because they understand we picked that scab. It kind of all the pus that comes out.
00:19:28.000We can actually use that to actually take down the deep state.
00:19:32.000Look, look, look, the reason the Hunter Biden pardon goes back 10 years is because Joe Biden was never supposed to be president
00:19:39.000because Donald Trump was never supposed to be president.
00:19:42.000You got to go put yourself back into the mindset of 2014. Hillary Clinton was supposed to be president.
00:19:48.000And all of this was Burisma and all the rest of it. This was the nest egg.
00:19:52.000This was Joe Biden's nest egg. This was the payoff to the Biden family.
00:19:55.000Hey, appreciate all the buddy buddy work, you know, doing the co-pilot thing, the the bromance with Barack Obama.
00:20:01.000Good stuff. You're going to take this. You're going to move up. Why?
00:20:04.000Because Barack Obama passed over Joe Biden in 2016 when he endorsed Hillary Clinton over his own vice president.
00:20:14.000Everybody remembers this. And he said, I'm not going to support you, Joe.
00:20:18.000Joe took that as a backstab. And so the money, the Burisma looking the other way on all this, this was supposed to be the nest egg.
00:20:24.000A little bit of, you know, maybe they could even call it hush money to ask to say, go away and go enjoy a quid pro quo.
00:20:31.000A quid pro quo, a Ukrainian quid pro quo, if you will. And keep in mind, keep in mind that president, you know, fast forward a couple of years.
00:20:38.000President Trump gets impeached for asking for asking who Zelensky was on the other end of the perfect phone call asking him about the crimes that Joe Biden just pardoned his own son.
00:20:51.000Repeat that. Nobody in the mainstream media, nobody in the right is talking about this.
00:20:54.000This is the key point. Talk to me about the impeachment, how it links back to this part.
00:20:58.000Put it all together. This is the Vindmans. This is Eric Charamella, by the way.
00:21:02.000We're going to say this. And this was the problem of the rat's nest of the original NSC of the first Trump administration, because you had so many people who were there.
00:21:10.000McMasters came in and was lying to him about troops where? In Syria.
00:21:14.000And saying we need boots on the ground, we need to fight more against Assad, because he wanted to get more Americans involved in a ground war in Syria.
00:21:21.000That was McMaster. Then you have these NSC types who they would they were told to be left on and said, don't worry about him.
00:21:28.000These are career professionals, career professionals. We've got to leave them on.
00:21:31.000And there were people who were associated with Trump's original NSC who said that they should stay and say that they shouldn't be left off like the Vindmans.
00:21:38.000Both brothers, by the way, and like Eric Charamella, all of who leaked the transcript of.
00:21:45.000And by the way, they edited the transcript when they sent it over.
00:21:48.000They made the whistleblower report. Remember, they never gave you the actual transcript of quid pro quo wasn't there.
00:21:53.000Even Zelensky at the time came out and said there was no quid pro quo, felt no pressure.
00:21:58.000And President Trump had said that when he met with with him at Trump Tower here a couple of weeks ago.
00:22:03.000And all of the all of this was predicated on President Trump reading about Burisma, reading about the inextricable link of the Biden criminal family enterprise to Ukraine,
00:22:16.000realizing that there was something wrong that had gone on there and going to Zelensky who had run at the time.
00:22:22.000Keep in mind, 2019. He had just been elected at this point and his only election, by the way.
00:22:26.000And he was saying that he was running on anti-corruption. That's what Zelensky first ran on.
00:22:31.000So Trump calls him up and says, hey, make good on this. What's this whole deal with the Biden family, Burisma?
00:22:37.000And keep in mind that Ukraine and Russiagate had already been waged quite, quite strongly at this point.
00:22:43.000You're in the midst of Mueller. You're in the midst of all these things.
00:22:46.000And it was the Ukrainians, remember, who.
00:29:31.000Trump, who was elected by voters basically begging for relief from high prices,
00:29:37.000who openly plans an inflationary trade war with tariffs so insane that even Canada's most famous right-wing politician,
00:29:44.000Ontario Premier Doug Ford, said they were like a family member stabbing you in the heart this week.
00:29:48.000Mexico's president sent Trump an open letter blasting the terror threat, suggesting the U.S. would face punishing tariffs and retaliation, which is usually how this goes.
00:29:57.000And still, many Americans seem to be taking Trump neither seriously nor literally on this campaign promise.
00:30:02.000If you're one of them, you might want to take note of a Trump administration appointment today.
00:30:06.000Trump announced his choice to be the U.S. trade representative, a lawyer named Jamison Greer.
00:30:11.000Now, Greer previously served as chief of staff to Trump's former U.S. trade representative, Robert Lighthizer.
00:30:17.000He's the architect of the tariffs they did the last time around on $370 billion worth of Chinese imports.
00:30:25.000Those tariffs, as we reported on the show, spurred a trade war, nearly broke the backs of American farmers who lost access to their top Asian market.
00:30:33.000Just like the Tories and trusts in London two years ago, Donald Trump has told us what he plans to do.
00:30:39.000And just like that, the critics have said this looks like it's going to be devastating if you do it.
00:30:44.000And now I guess we just wait right to see if we're about to enter the finding out phase of the story.
00:30:50.000We were to get in a situation where investors are spooked by the bond market.
00:30:54.000You could easily see, you know, pretty good sell off.
00:30:58.000And also you could see that the steeping would would have to happen pretty drastically.
00:31:05.000And, you know, the market's just not looking at that.
00:31:09.000But duration risk is not priced properly.
00:31:12.000And not only enough, there's a pretty concrete example of this exact same thing.
00:31:16.000OK, when I got one of the most brilliant guys on Wall Street.
00:34:32.000But, okay, if they can – okay, the Wall Street Journal today puts on its cover above the fold, which they're telling you this important story.
00:34:39.000Le Pen, our friend from France, is bringing down the French government over a budget because their spending is random numbers.
00:34:47.000Their deficit is 6 percent of their GDP.
00:35:00.000We're totally over-leveraged, and we're about to – and this is what Trump can get you ahead of, is to get you ahead of a global margin call by putting in rational plan of, hey, we have to not just take down the deep state and the administrative state, but we have to, at the same time, with that, cut this massive spending.
00:35:18.000Unfortunately, there's a lot of people in Washington and a lot of people around the world that are more interested in being citizens of the world than citizens of the United States.
00:35:27.000I know the international post-war international rules-based order was designed to get peace.
00:35:33.000The problem is it went too far, and you're hurting American people, especially since China joined the WTO.
00:35:51.000You've got to have these – hey, Cash Patel, Hegseth to go into these apartments and disaggregate.
00:35:57.000For the Treasury, you need a guy that the capital markets, when he says something, they believe it.
00:36:01.000His 3-3-3 program is 3% economic growth predicated upon doing spending cuts, right, and revenue growth that gets us to 3% deficit, not a 6% or 7%.
00:36:25.000It is an immediate productivity enhancement.
00:36:27.000And why on earth would a country not take full advantage of its own natural resources?
00:36:33.000Up until 1945, countries would go to war with one another over natural resources.
00:36:38.000Here we're ignoring them and basically enriching countries like China that say that they're good actors on the environment, which we all know is a joke.
00:36:46.000So this is something we have to start focusing on mending fences here at home, on bolstering the middle class here at home, because it's been too long.
00:36:55.000And the system that we've created has been enormously good for rich people, but it's been terrible for the average person.
00:37:00.000We have this thing you might know, the common man CPI, which just looks at things that are, it's food, energy, shelter, utilities, children's clothing, and insurance.
00:37:09.000What you found is that during the Trump years, people's standard of living improved.
00:37:14.000Wages exceeded that measure of inflation.
00:37:18.000In the Biden years, people have gotten 5% or 6% poorer.
00:37:21.000And that, in my opinion, is exactly why Biden lost.
00:37:25.000And you said this was reflected on the country gave a verdict on the Biden economy on November 5th.
00:38:03.000Basically, what the Fed has done is largely underwritten the amount of debt.
00:38:07.000And they talk about bond market vigilantes.
00:38:09.000You might remember James Carville in 1994 said, I want to be reincarnated as the bond market because it scares everyone.
00:38:15.000One of the things one of the unfortunate parts of having QE or having the Fed expand its balance sheet for 15 years is now the bond market doesn't scare anyone.
00:38:24.000And Republicans, Democrats alike think that it's a really just a free pass to spend money they don't have.
00:38:29.000We have to get off of that because, again, it's extremely regressive.
00:38:33.000It's if you're a rich person with a private equity portfolio or venture capital, you do great.
00:38:38.000If you're just a person that has a savings account, you get close to zero for 12 years.
00:38:46.000One of the things we try to do here with the audience, our working class and middle class audience, is to talk to them about, for years, Washington played like free money.
00:38:53.000He said deficits don't matter and it doesn't impact anybody.
00:38:56.000Right now, the federal debt on, I think, households $100,000 and individuals $100,000, households like $225,000.
00:39:06.000The refinancing of the $36 trillion, the refinancing, particularly the one third has to be refinanced.
00:39:12.000And like Janet Yellen is doing it like we're Argentina or like old Argentina.
00:39:32.000The U.S., unfortunately, under Janet Yellen, especially over the last year, has essentially taken out an adjustable rate mortgage on America's future.
00:40:07.000And it's, you know, again, it was, I think it was a very crass political move on the part of the Treasury Department to try to help President Biden get reelected.
00:40:16.000And, you know, I would say the new administration, the Trump administration is going to have to work with this, is going to have to, is not being dealt a great hand here.
00:40:24.000And that's why the cutting spending, government spending, is an integral part of what has to be done.
00:40:30.000Be specific, because I've said, or as specific as you can, I know you're in discussions with folks around here.
00:40:35.000We'll talk about that in the next segment.
00:40:37.000When you say, because I keep saying in the World War Three, they're trying to jam Trump up.
00:40:43.000On the border, they're trying to jam Trump up and laying more people in before they leave.
00:40:47.000Talk to me about how President Trump's got a, he's been dealt a bad hand.
00:40:52.000Well, he's being dealt a bad hand because, again, part of the reason why the economy is growing is because we're running budget deficits of six to seven percent of GDP.
00:40:59.000And creating government jobs or government adjacent jobs.
00:41:03.000So that increases GDP, except in the wrong way.
00:41:09.000So if you're going to try to reel that in, you need something to replace it.
00:41:14.000And what I think President Trump is trying to do, and he's going to do, is going to focus on productivity in the private sector.
00:41:21.000This is why we have the, this is why Besson keeps saying this is the last chance for a supply side tax cut, deregulation, de-administrative state to get back to the animal spirits of our economy.
00:41:44.000But in terms of industrial policy, government spending to spur economic growth, it doesn't work.
00:41:49.000The private sector always does it better.
00:41:52.000And in my opinion, this is why it's going to be difficult for the new administration in a way, because they're being dealt overspending and also a term structure of the debt outstanding that is extremely short.
00:42:03.000So this is why the cutting government spending is so important.
00:42:07.000You can maintain tax rates where they are if you actually start to cut the administrative state.
00:42:13.000This is going to be, this is going to be vote at OMB.
00:42:15.000It's going to be the appropriations process.
00:42:17.000It's going to be the team of Vivek and Elon and their other team pulling together great people over at Doge.
00:42:24.000Okay, we're taking a short commercial break.
00:42:45.000It's an adaptation of his very powerful bestselling book, Government Gangsters.
00:42:49.000Birchgold.com, birchgold.com slash warroom, the end of the dollar empire.
00:42:54.000Remember, Rachel Maddow and your team, we're not trying to destroy the dollar.
00:42:58.000We're actually talking about the elites in our country because the spending have tried to destroy it and what has to happen to get it back.
00:43:04.000But birchgold.com, you get to talk to Philip Patrick and the team or use your phone, Bannon 989898.
00:43:14.000Jason Trenert has joined us here in West Palm Beach.
00:43:16.000We're going to take a short commercial break.
00:43:18.000We're going to be back in the warm in just a moment.
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