Episode 4301: Stopping The Destruction Of The US Economy
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Summary
In this episode, we discuss the impact of President Trump's new trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and whether or not they will trigger a recession. We also discuss why the tariffs are so effective and why they will have a negative impact on the economy.
Transcript
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Donald Trump is seeking nothing less than a total restructuring of a global trade environment
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which penalizes American companies, American workers, and American taxpayers through all
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manner of unfair trade, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, in this case taxation, as you mentioned,
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regulation. And it worked back in the 50s when we were trying to help the global economy recover
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after a war. But we have this practice of just surrendering our treasure to the rest of the
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world for no good end anymore. And ultimately, these are national security issues because if we
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don't have a manufacturing and a defense industrial base and tech companies which have every dollar
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they need for cutting edge AI and research and development, we're not going to be the country
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we need to be. I mean, the manufacturing sector went into recession back in late 2018, 2019 because
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of the tariffs. So, I mean, we're in a different world, a globally connected world where, you know,
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some of these CEOs that we talk to are very concerned about tariffs. They're worried about
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demand destruction. They're worried about price shocks. They're worried about trading relationships.
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We heard the same concerns back during the first term when President Trump levied historic
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tariffs on China, levied historic tariffs on steel and aluminum, levied historic tariffs on things
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like solar and washing machines. And what we got out of that was not the sky's fall and recession
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or inflation. What we got was price stability and prosperity. And one of the eight, I think the
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eighth wonder of the world is you go to the pride of Clyde in Ohio and you go to the whirlpool factory.
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There's a washer machine that comes off every four seconds out of there.
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Come back to another like four or five minutes. I beg to differ with her right there. She said it was a
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recession in 18 and 19. 19, the fourth quarter of 19 was world on fire in a good way. Jim Rickards
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is going to join us here in a moment. EJ, so President Trump on Tuesday, he just sent out a true social,
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4% on Mexico, 25% on Mexico, 25% on Canada, two of our largest trading partners. And I don't know if
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China is a partner or we're in complete submission to them since the trade deficit is so massive,
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but 10% on them. Your thoughts? Is Peter Navarro right? Is this a total geoeconomic
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reset for the United States and looking at this as a premium market? Because he's not putting a 25%
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tariff on an avocado coming from Mexico. He's not putting a 25% tariff on a component part under the
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hood that gets shipped down from Canada into Detroit to go into a car engine. This is across the board.
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So is this bigger and is this really national security or are his critics right? Is this going
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to trigger a massive recession? Well, Steve, there's certainly no way it triggers a massive
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recession, although that is very much the fear in Canada and in Mexico. We forget that the trade
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between our countries is not in any way equal. What I mean is that if you look at all of America's
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exports, only a few percentage points go to a country like Canada or a country like Mexico.
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Whereas almost all of Canada's exports, almost all of Mexico's exports come here to the United
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States. And so if they really want to go toe to toe with Trump on this one, if the president of
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Mexico or the governor of Canada says, all right, let's do this trade war thing, then what will
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happen here in the United States will basically be like an economic speed bump, but it will be a
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probably a full blown recession for a country again, like Canada or like Mexico. This is where
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Trump's approach to tariffs is so much more like McKinley's than Hoover's. McKinley had an almost
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scientific approach. It was a very strategic approach to conducting tariff policy. Whereas
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with Hoover, it was a shotgun style, almost random approach in the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff act that
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infamously made the Great Depression even worse than it already was at the start of the 1930s.
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So, you know, what would the actual effect be? Let's remember that there are a lot of elasticities
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to deal with. There are fluctuations in the relative value of currencies. In other words,
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exchange rates. What I'm getting at here, Steve, is the fact that if you put a tariff on a certain item,
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the actual cost of that tariff is never passed entirely on to the consumer. The producer always
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ends up eating some of the cost of that tariff. We famously saw this during the first Trump
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administration that Peter Navarro was just talking about, wherein about 80 percent of the cost of the
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tariffs we were imposing on the Chinese were simply eaten by the Chinese manufacturers.
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They couldn't afford to pass the full freight on to the American consumer in the form of higher
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prices because the American consumer would choose alternatives. You know, we didn't have to buy
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steel from China, for example. We could buy it from a domestic producer. We could buy it from
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another foreign producer like the ones in Sweden. And so in order to remain competitive, it forced
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these Chinese exporters, again, to eat most of the cost of that tariff. And we have every expectation
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that that would happen today. And then one further thing, Steve, if I may, you know, things like a 25
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percent tariff rate on Canada, that's perfectly reasonable when you think about reciprocity because
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they, the Canadians, already impose about a 25 percent tariff or the equivalent thereof once you
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consider not just tariffs but also non-tariff barriers, think things like quotas, that they have
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on, you know, American dairy, American automotive parts. And so that is essentially an implicit penalty
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on Americans, whether it's an American farmer, dairy farmer, or an American factory worker.
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And so what the president is trying to do here is level the playing field for the American worker,
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for American exporters, so that we can actually compete on the world stage and make it a level
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playing field. Jim Rickards, I want to bring you in your thoughts on President Trump's this. It's
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really a geo-economic and geo-strategic reset on this, and particularly when you look at tariffs. He's got a
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different economic model. He sees the United States as a premium market, and if you don't,
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if you can get around tariffs by shipping your, putting your manufacturing here and hiring American
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citizens at good wages, or you can pay a premium like you would buy a, you'd get a skybox for a
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sporting event or a front row seat for a concert, sir.
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Jim, I agree with that, Steve. And I disagree with E.J. a little bit on the difference between
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McKinley and Hoover. Whether tariffs are a good idea or not depends on whether your economy is in
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surplus or deficit. If you're running a trade surplus, don't put tariffs on. But if you're
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running a trade deficit, absolutely do it and help create, exactly as you described, high-paying jobs
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at home. Say to the foreign trading partners, if you want to sell to the United States, that's fine,
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but you've got to build it here, put your investment here. Right now, of course, the U.S. is
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running a huge trade deficit. So tariffs make a lot of sense. And as far as the reset is concerned,
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yeah, it's a reset. But it's a reset to something that we had from 1790 to 1962, which was the
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American system. Alexander Hamilton, Henry Clay, Abraham Lincoln, McKinley, Eisenhower, they were
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all on board. So we're going back to really what we had to most of American history. But the problem
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with Hoover is not that tariffs are automatically bad. It's that the U.S. was a huge surplus country at
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the time. So it depends on the initial conditions. But the initial conditions right now are right for
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tariffs. Describe, this is so important, the American system. There's a document that is,
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I think, almost as important as a constitution, the Declaration of Independence by the first,
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by the Secretary of Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, who came out and put forward, our first Secretary
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Treasurer put forward a report on manufacturers, right, that has resonated down the ages to people
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like Henry Clay, people like Abraham Lincoln, the American system. Can you just take a second to
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describe it? Because that's essentially how the country basically ran until globalization,
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until the high priest of globalization on Wall Street. And it places, I went to the West Point of
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Capitalism, the West Point of Globalism, Harvard Business School, which all they preach was
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globalization. But describe to people what the American system is.
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Sure. Well, first of all, it did start with Alexander Hamilton. Alexander Hamilton and George
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Washington took, I'll call it, a field trip out to Passaic, New Jersey. And they looked at all these
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waterfalls, which are there. It's a natural resource. And they said, perfect. This is, you know,
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at the time you use water to run mills, to run water wheels and so forth. That's how you powered
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industry. And they said, this would be perfect for, you know, textiles and so forth. But you had
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to put up tariffs to protect the U.S. industry. We were kind of, you know, in our infancy at the
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time. And that was, now there was, it was an opposition party that was Jefferson, Madison, and
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Monroe. And Monroe, you know, Jefferson and Monroe in particular, they were the, they were the agrarians.
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They represent the Southern interests, actually. This is one of the, not the main one, but this is one of
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the things that led up to the Civil War, which was the South opposed tariffs. They needed imports and
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the North favored tariffs because they wanted to, you know, encourage industry. And they, and they
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did. But that's, that system, you know, basically the, the, the, the early Republican party, which
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was Thomas Jefferson was pushed aside. And again, Henry Clay was the champion. John Quincy Adams was
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another one. This thread ran through all the way through American history with very few exceptions.
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And the, the real turning point was 1962. That was the, uh, the trade act of, uh, trade reform act of
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1962 when we lowered our tariffs unilaterally. And then we went through multiple rounds of, uh, you know, the
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Kennedy round, the Tokyo round and so forth. And, but the U S today acts as the consumer of last resort.
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We sit there to the world and say, Hey, sell us all your stuff, cheap labor. And by the way, uh, you know,
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Ricardo himself admitted, he was wrong about the theory of free trade comparative advantage,
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comparative advantage works in a classroom, but in the real world, the factors of production,
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the inputs are portable. So you may start out with some comparative advantage, but if capital can go
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where it wants and it does, and if cheap labor is waiting for you overseas and it is, then the,
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the comparative advantage comes out of thin air. Look at a Taiwan semiconductor. What was Taiwan's
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comparative advantage in semiconductors in 1978? Zero. They had comparative advantage in tuna fishing
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and a couple other things. They created it out of whole cloth. They basically got the capital, got the
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educational system that if you wanted to leave Taiwan semiconductor and go start your own company, they
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were like, that's fine. Let's kind of create that act, that, uh, ecosystem. So, so the point being
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comparative advantage, the theory of free trade falls down because the inputs are portable. Once you realize
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that, you have to say, okay, what can we do to prevent having all of our industry over intellectual
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property, uh, and jobs stripped away? And the answer is tariffs. Uh, and you mentioned, I think
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in the month of December, it was the, it was a, uh, it was a record trade deficit with China. Let me play
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the Caitlin Collins. I'm going to get EJ in here before he has to bounce and come back to you, Jim. Uh,
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let's play the Kate, let's play the Caitlin Collins quickly and get EJ's response on this.
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You just talked about how important the work that Elon Musk is doing is if you pass a continuing
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resolution, won't that just refund all the programs that he says he's cutting that are full of
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waste, fraud, and abuse? No, look, you can, that's why I say you add anomalies to a CR. You can increase
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some spending, you can decrease some spending. You can add language that, that says, for example,
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the dramatic changes that have been made to USAID would be reflected in the ongoing spending. Uh,
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it would be a clean CR mostly, I think, uh, but with some of those changes to, uh, to adapt to the
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new realities here. And the new reality is less government, more efficiency, a better return
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for the taxpayers. And I think that's something everybody should welcome.
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What he said earlier also was about the, uh, was about the Democrats trying to put restrictions on
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President Trump on all of this. Uh, maybe we can play the whole thing for Jim if we can put it
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together. Uh, EJ right there and not clean CR, but anomalies. What, what do you, what do you
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anticipate? What do you anticipate, uh, happening here? Because as you know, this audience doesn't
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like kind of omnibus CRs, but they're, they're talking about anomalies where you're actually going
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to allow the doge cuts to go through, sir. And Steve, I think that makes a lot of sense,
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right? You should be counting all of these savings when you're trying to compute, okay, what is the
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actual, uh, cost of this legislation. They should be counting things like, uh, future revenue from
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tariffs, for example. And all of these things can be used as quote unquote pay-fors to help cancel
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some of this supposed costs, according to the CBO from extending the, the Trump era tax cuts,
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the Trump tax reform. So I, I think it's a very good thing that they're going to help incorporate
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some of these wins in terms, in terms of cutting government, that they're going to incorporate some
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of that into the CR and say, okay, this is the new baseline, right? We are cutting out all of
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these instances of abuse, of fraud, of waste, something, which by the way, both parties used
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to preach. Let's not forget. It was Bill Clinton of all people who got up to the microphone and said,
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the era of big government is over and was constantly railing again against abuse, fraud,
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and waste within the federal budget. Now, whether or not he was true to that, that's a whole nother story.
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I know, I know Bill Clinton lying. It's a shocker, but whatever the case, at least the Democrats used
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to pay lip service to this. Today, it is shocking how many of the people in Congress get up to the
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microphone and rail against all of these cost savings, all of these ways in which we are clawing
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back Americans tax, Americans tax dollars. EJ, what's your social media? You're coming a little hot on
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Twitter. I think it's fantastic. You got great information, great charts, great analysis. Where'd they go?
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Best place to find me is right there on Twitter or X, you know, whatever we call it these days. The
00:14:38.400
handle is at real EJ and Tony. EJ, love you, brother. I hope we got either EJ is going to go in and
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we'll lose him as an analyst and a contributor, or he'll be the smartest guy out here talking about
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the details of the budget and inflation. Jim Rickert's next. Have you seen the news from
00:15:01.600
economists forecasting a depression? I'm not talking recession. I mean depression by the year 2030.
00:15:09.360
We're in a perfect storm as Social Security and Medicare hit a breaking point with the largest
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generation hitting retirement. A smaller workforce means a smaller tax base. Pair that with our growing
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national debt and rising cost of living, and you got a problem, and I mean a big problem.
00:15:27.240
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Okay, with everything else out there, and I think we're getting some clarity now on the CR,
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which I'll be able to go into in a little while, and also the taxes part and other parts of this
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reconciliation bill. And this is quite important because this is going to lay the foundational
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element for the Trump presidency. And remember, President Trump's always about energy and getting
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a foundation, a strong foundation for economic growth and opportunity. Jim Rickards, one thing
00:17:15.180
that stands in the way, and you know, we've had the Birch Gold guys in here. You know Philip Patrick
00:17:19.900
very well. He thinks the world of you. Read your newsletter, Strategic Intelligence, which you can
00:17:23.660
get by going to rickardswarroom.com. You can get Strategic Intelligence, but you can also see all the
00:17:30.860
specialty newsletters Jim puts out, and you get this amazing book about artificial intelligence
00:17:38.380
and capital markets, which I will tell people will come as a shock to you, but it should be read.
00:17:43.100
Jim throws it in for free. Jim, there's all this situation where the Bank of England, like,
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is delaying delivery of physical gold for certain transactions. There's also all this discussion,
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I think, of 20 metric tons or something that has been shipped from Bank of England and other money
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center banks in London to New York. Those guys are arbitraging, I guess, the difference in price
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in physical gold. And then President Trump, and now he's been pretty adamant about it, that he wants to go
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to Fort Knox and actually wants to see and do a physical inspection and hear from auditors about gold.
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And now he says he's going to take Elon Musk. Now, Scott Besant, who the show knows very well,
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former major contributor, he says, hey, look, they do an audit every year. President Trump,
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we want President Trump to go and they're arranging the visit. How seriously should this audience take?
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Because we know central banks are still buying at record rates. What is wrong? What is up with,
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like, physical gold between the Bank of England, New York, Fort Knox, all of it, sir?
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That's a great question. But we've seen all of this before from the panic of Black Friday,
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1869, and what they used to call goal points in the early 20th century. But yeah, first of all,
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I applaud the President and Elon Musk if they're going to Fort Knox. I think that's great. I think
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it'll be, I call it the mother of all photo ops. But if you've ever lifted a 400-ounce bar, they weighed
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27 pounds. I've done it. I've been involved. But it's like a freeway. It's kind of, it's a lot heavier
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than you think. But they'll go in. They'll look around. By the way, the gold is certainly there.
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I've said that for over 10 years, probably 20 years. But I said it in my book, The New Case
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for Gold. The gold is there. Just think about it. Would the Treasury let the President go to Fort
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Knox if the gold wasn't there? Of course they wouldn't. So they're going to go there. The gold
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is there. I think it'd be great for the American people.
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But hang on. But hang on. But hang on. But hang on. Hang on. I know when I was a small kid,
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my dad would tell me when he was a child back in the 20s and 30s that they would look at a map and
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the map would have pink or where the British Empire was. He said that little country, that little island
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looked like it could control the world because it looked like half the map was pink. He also said
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the standard back in those days was the Bank of England. So I hear you that the gold is there.
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But how do we have a situation where something is supposed to be so solid as the Bank of England,
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you've now had, and it's been verified by the Bank of England, some problems with actually
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completing trades. They need delay because they can't get the physical delivery of gold, sir.
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Well, here's the thing. Blythe Masters, who ran global commodities for JP Morgan for a very long
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period of time, she knows more about this than anyone. She's left the bank and on to other things.
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She had a quote, just a couple of words, and I found it on the internet. I verified it,
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but then it kind of disappeared. It got scrubbed. But she said, gold never settles.
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And what that means is that the amount of paper gold transactions, gold futures, gold forwards,
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unallocated gold, leasing gold, etc. The amount of paper transactions is easily 100 times,
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probably more, no one knows the exact number, but easily 100 times the amount of physical gold.
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Now, what she meant was, as long as all the longs and the shorts and the lessees and the lessors and
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the paper gold holders and everything kind of roll over their contracts, some get in, some get out,
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it's all good. But if you actually had a situation where the holders of the,
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those who are long, the paper gold say, you know what, I think I'll take physical delivery.
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Call the, you know, the CME or call, you know, the COMEX or call the treasury for that matter.
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Call anybody and say, you know, deliver the gold, please. You couldn't do it. It would be physically
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impossible. So what would happen then, you'd have the greatest short squeeze in history. You'd have a
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mass scramble for physical gold. The price would double probably overnight and then just kind of keep
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going from there. You'd have bankruptcies as various dealers and counterparties failed. Now,
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that hasn't happened yet on that scale. And again, 1869 was the last time something like it
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happened, but, um, but the market couldn't stand up to it. Now we're starting to see signs of that.
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We're starting to see cracks in, in the structure. And the question I have for, for the president,
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Elon Musk, go to Fort Knox. Okay, the gold's there. That's fine. Ask the treasury, and they probably
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don't want to ask this. Is that gold leased? Is that gold leased to JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,
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city? Hold it, hold it, hold it. Full stop, full stop, full stop. If it's in Fort Knox,
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it's supposed to be the gold of the United States of America and the United States treasury. Is it?
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And that's why U.S. troops, it's in actually an army base. And of course the base is a little
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separate from the gold depository. Right. But I would assume, and I think people watching this show would
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assume that is a gold of the United States of America. Is it not, sir? What do you mean leased?
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Well, it is. But if I lease my house to you, you can move in and it's perfectly legal,
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but I still own the house. Now, people don't understand gold leasing. They hear the gold is
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leased. They assume that like JP Morgan backs up a truck and takes the gold. No, that's not what
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happened. That's not what happened. The gold is there. The treasury owns it. I want to be clear
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about that. The gold is there and the treasury owns it, but they can lease it out. That's a paper
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transaction. And here's the key. When you're the lessee, you're again, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,
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any of the big banks, you have a right of rehypothecation. That means you can lease it
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to somebody else or you can sell it to somebody else on what's called an unallocated basis,
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which is say, yes, Steve, you own the gold, but not really. There are no bars with serial numbers
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with your name on it, but it's a paper gold transaction. But that's my point. It's a long
00:23:27.380
chain of paper transactions. Everybody thinks, every lessee, every buyer of unallocated gold thinks they own
00:23:33.540
gold. And they do have price exposure, but they don't have the gold. The gold's in the vault where
00:23:39.060
it belongs. But you can actually make money leasing. How could you blame the treasury for
00:23:43.620
picking up a percentage point or two on the gold by leasing that? But the bigger point, the one you
00:23:48.980
refer to, is that the chain of paper gold is 100 times the physical gold. You couldn't possibly
00:23:55.140
settle all those transactions. Now, I don't, by the way, I understand gold leasing. I just described it.
00:23:59.780
I don't know for a fact that the treasury gold is leased. I suspect it is. I don't know that. To
00:24:05.380
me, it's a question, but it's a question that the treasury may not want to answer because the
00:24:10.260
minute you realize it, that's how much that's supporting.
00:24:13.780
Isn't what you just described with hypothecation, where essentially you're breaking off from the
00:24:20.180
physical reality of it and the ownership of it, ways to monetize certain paper transactions,
00:24:26.900
right? You hypothecate it. Isn't what you just described in that chain of custody,
00:24:31.780
chain of events, who everyone's leasing, all of that, much like fractional banking,
00:24:37.380
which people say, how can this happen? It is wrought with potential risk that if the music ever stops,
00:24:44.420
right, the people in the hypothecation chain, just like the fractional banking
00:24:49.460
uh, situation like at, uh, at, uh, at, uh, Silicon Valley bank that they end up, uh,
00:24:56.260
they end up holding it, particularly like, uh, depositors or people, there's some person that gets
00:25:00.980
stuck if the music stops, sir. Sure. I mean, Silicon Valley bank had three, about 3% of their deposits
00:25:08.820
were FDIC insured. The rest of them were completely uninsured. So you're basically,
00:25:13.300
as a depositor, you're, you're an, uh, uninsured, uh, creditor of a, uh, uh, insolvent institution.
00:25:20.020
So, um, that's exactly right. Except fractional banking, they at least require maybe five
00:25:24.740
up to 10% capital in different flavors. And the rest is leverage. We're talking about a market with
00:25:30.500
maybe 1%, probably less. In other words, leverage 99 to one. Uh, and that, that is the issue. Now,
00:25:36.660
even in the, uh, just take the futures exchanges, the conex gold futures contracts,
00:25:40.980
they have a vault and there's physical gold in it. And if I'm long a futures contract,
00:25:44.820
I'm allowed to put in notices. I'd like to take physical delivery, but I'm enough of a geek. I've
00:25:50.740
read the rule books of all these exchanges. They all have a rule in the rule book that says we can
00:25:54.580
change the rules and they tell you, we are not a source of supply. So they just let you take physical
00:25:59.540
delivery just a little bit to keep everything honest. But if there were ever a massive wave of
00:26:04.420
notices, Hey, I'd like to take physical delivery, they would, they would say trade for liquidation,
00:26:08.340
although you're not getting that gold, you're not getting that physical gold. There is not enough.
00:26:12.020
That's just the futures market. Then again, there, there's unallocated gold, bank gold,
00:26:16.660
gold leasing. This is huge market. Uh, and this is what life masters meant when she said gold never
00:26:23.300
settles. What, why do we have, we got a couple of minutes left. Why do we have a bar, a barbaric
00:26:30.740
relic of our savage past in a day of artificial intelligence? You just wrote a book about
00:26:36.740
artificial intelligence and markets that everybody should read. In fact, you go to
00:26:40.740
Rickards war room.com. You get it. He throws it in as a free, um, a free item if you take strategic
00:26:46.740
intelligence, but you've got artificial intelligence. That's changing really the nature of capital
00:26:52.580
markets because the efficiency and effectiveness of artificial intelligence, and you lay out a very
00:26:57.540
couple of scary scenarios. But why is gold this, this relic of 5,000 years? Why is gold still
00:27:04.980
important and still relevant? Well, I think my experience as a kid may be similar to yours
00:27:10.020
because at the kitchen table, my father used to pull two, uh, $20 bills out as well. And he slammed
00:27:14.980
them on the table and said, look at this. And one of them said federal reserve note, which is liability.
00:27:20.180
That's what, what we call money is actually a liability of the federal reserve. It's not an asset.
00:27:24.340
Um, but the other one said silver certificate. He used to carry it around and he would say,
00:27:28.980
this isn't backed by anything. My father was in the, uh, first place. He was actually in
00:27:32.420
the occupation of China. He fought in World War II, but he was in the occupation of China
00:27:36.180
and they had a hyperinflation there that was worse than Weimar. Again, he's say his marine buddies,
00:27:41.940
they would take a wheelbarrow full of, uh, uh, national Chinese money to get a case of beer.
00:27:46.660
Uh, so I, I had this from like a very early age, the difference between solid money and paper money and
00:27:52.100
leverage. And again, the leverage system works as long as no one challenges it, as long as no one
00:27:56.500
questions it. But the minute you do, it collapses very quickly. And that's where gold stands up. And
00:28:01.780
I mean, gold would, would skyrocket in these scenarios. The problem, Steven, and you referred
00:28:06.180
to it with the bank of England. And, um, I mean, it used to be when they ran the gold corner,
00:28:09.860
when they cornered the gold market, this is, uh, Jay Gould and big Jim Fisk in 1869. When they
00:28:14.820
cornered the gold market, I want, I want to, I want to, I want, I want you to, I want you to tell that story.
00:28:20.420
Okay. Short commercial break. Jim Rickards, president Trump and Elon is going to go up to Fort
00:28:25.780
Knox and, uh, check things out. Let's say that check things out, make sure everything's on the
00:28:31.540
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You know, one of the powers of records book, it talks about artificial intelligence and, um,
00:30:20.820
and, uh, capital markets. Swiker, David, I think it's David Swiker, Arizona, just put in a new
00:30:26.900
bill talking about artificial intelligence and prescriptions. I'm gonna get into this,
00:30:31.540
but AI is we've, this is why we have Joe Allen, artificial intelligence. And, and with Elon,
00:30:38.500
I mean, their theory of the case over Doge, I think is to replace part of it is to replace
00:30:45.060
50% of the federal workers with artificial intelligence, right? This is going to cut through,
00:30:50.820
but this is going to be every, um, this is going to be every industry, particularly folks under 30
00:30:58.020
years old. Those first jobs you get in your twenties, a lot of those lower level entry level
00:31:03.220
jobs in management, administration, and technology. I'm not talking about blue collar jobs in factories
00:31:08.900
or driving, you know, Teamsters jobs, driving trucks or, or driving Ubers or taxis, or factories
00:31:16.340
automation or the automation around our ports. A, the, the first, the sith through grass of
0.99
00:31:24.660
artificial intelligence will initially come and it's big in the efficiency moves
00:31:30.900
through administrative managerial and STEM or technology jobs at entry levels and there and
00:31:38.820
above. And then it'll start eating all the way up. Uh, but Jim, people, the gold,
00:31:44.580
one of the things about gold people have tried to corner the gold market before, right? I mean,
00:31:49.220
the Hunt brothers tried to cut it and I think they did for a minute control the silver market back
00:31:55.940
in the eighties. In fact, one of the Hunts is the, uh, is the grandfather of the, of the son that owns
00:32:01.300
the, um, owns the Kansas City Chiefs who used to work for me at Goldman Sachs in LA for a while.
00:32:06.820
Uh, in his training, he's like Boyle, Boyle in journalism, um, Hunt in finance. Um, but people
00:32:15.220
have tried to, to corner the gold market. How, how hard is that, sir? And, and give me the best
00:32:20.820
example you've got of somebody that tried to do it. Um, it's very, it's very hard, but the,
00:32:25.460
the best example was, uh, September, 1869. This is, uh, two of the so-called robber barons,
00:32:30.900
Jay Gold and big Jim Fisk, and they decided to corner the market. Now there was a lot of gold.
00:32:35.780
They were in New York. They, they did basically corner the physical gold supply in New York,
00:32:41.140
but there were two sources of gold that they had to worry about. One was London, but they weren't
00:32:45.140
really worried about that because you had to ship it to the, physically ship it to the United States.
00:32:49.140
That would take weeks or longer. And they knew that that would not come in time to, to break the
00:32:53.540
corner. The other source of gold was the United States treasury. The U S treasury had gold and they had a
00:32:57.460
station in New York. So what they did, they had a middleman who was president grant's son-in-law and
00:33:02.980
he loves his daughter. So they got an audience for president grant. They convinced the president that
00:33:07.620
high commodity prices were good for farmers. So grant kind of naively said, yeah, you're right.
00:33:12.180
He ordered the treasury to stop selling gold. That was the green light because once they knew the
00:33:16.820
treasury goal was off limits, the, the London goal couldn't get here in time. They had cornered the
00:33:22.420
gold market in New York. So they launched the squeeze, which basically means you've sold gold on paper.
00:33:27.140
You don't have it. So you're short. You go to buy it, but there isn't any because they've
00:33:31.060
cornered the market. So this went on for a couple of days and the price of gold skyrocketed. Finally,
00:33:36.820
Sam Brown, uh, Brown brothers Harriman, the original Brown brothers Harriman called the
00:33:41.060
treasurer said, you got to do something. This is out of control. People are going broken.
00:33:44.420
Uh, they called the president and then he said, told the treasury secretary, sell the gold
00:33:48.740
that broke the corner. But the point is you, you really do have to control it all physically.
00:33:52.740
The problem with the hunt brothers, they pretty much cornered the silver market,
00:33:56.260
but they were relying on the futures exchange and the futures exchange at the time, as I said,
00:34:01.460
changed the rules and said, uh, no, no physical delivery in the market. You can only trade for
00:34:05.940
liquidation only. So, so it's hard to do, but, but here's the point. You don't need a good old
00:34:10.740
fashioned corner. You can, you can just have a situation where the who's buying gold, Russia,
00:34:15.300
China, Iran, Turkey, even our friends like Japan, Philippines, Mexico, they're buying all the gold.
00:34:20.100
There's not that much around. It wouldn't take much to cause a buying panic.
00:34:25.940
Well, this is one of the reasons the converging factors why gold is, uh,
00:34:29.220
uh, hitting all time highs every five days. I might want to also mention Jay Gould.
00:34:34.900
How did Jay Gould come up with the idea? He and big Jim Fisk to corner the gold market.
00:34:39.300
You know how it was is financing is actually working as a financier, uh, for the massive
00:34:45.460
budget deficits that were run by president Lincoln and, uh, salmon chase and others,
00:34:51.700
his secretary of the treasury to, to finance the civil war. That's where Google got into the
00:34:57.220
Senate. A bunch of scandals with Jay Gould and others of these newer New York city financiers came
00:35:02.260
down there and saw that, you know, we were thrown all in to win militarily, had a massive defense budget,
00:35:08.020
which we had never had before. And the corruption that came in there and particularly guys that he,
00:35:12.980
he conceived of these ideas by seeing how rickety the system was down in Washington,
00:35:19.300
D.C. as president Lincoln and, and chase and, uh, and, uh, and others on that war cabinet ramped up
00:35:25.620
to defeat the Confederacy in, uh, in the, in the epic civil war, the financing of the, there's an argument
00:35:31.780
that one of the reasons the South lost is that they just, uh, they didn't finance it correctly.
00:35:35.700
They couldn't actually raise the money. So Jay Gould, one of the worst characters or best
00:35:40.740
characters, depending on where you come down, if you're libertarian, you love him.
00:35:44.020
If you're a patriot, he's a guy that's a little sketchy, uh, Rickards, how do people get to your
00:35:48.740
newsletter? Strategic intelligence. You're, you're, you're brilliant. You've got tons of experience.
00:35:53.060
Audience loves when you come on, where do people go to get the newsletter?
00:35:57.380
Thanks, Steve. We have a landing page called Rickardswarroom.com.
00:36:00.900
It's Rickardswarroom.com. You go there, you can subscribe to our new newsletter,
00:36:05.460
Strategic Intelligence. But we have a free copy of my new book, Money GPT, uh, basically
00:36:10.180
looks at artificial intelligence, which is not intelligent at all. It's all math. It's just
00:36:13.940
math and nodes. But I explained all that, you know, in, in, in plain English. Uh, but it's the,
00:36:18.580
it's the interaction of artificial intelligence, which is math and human nature, which hasn't changed
00:36:23.540
in 5,000 years. That's extremely dangerous. Now I'm not bashing AI. It is powerful. It is efficient,
00:36:28.820
but there are hidden dangers. And I talk about those dangers as they relate to the stock market,
00:36:38.020
Yeah. Like I said, this was one, don't read before bedtime, because bedtime will be delayed.
00:36:43.140
It'll keep you up. Rickards, we love you, brother. Everybody go to Rickardswarroom.com,
00:36:48.020
the landing page, get the free book, plus you get access to strategic intelligence. Thank you, sir.
00:36:54.100
Thanks. Okay, folks. Uh, we're not manning the ramparts today, but you're thinking through,
00:37:01.700
we're going to think through together and with the president of the United States, what this is,
00:37:05.860
I want to go back. I want to play the, I want to play the Caitlin Collins in its entirety,
00:37:11.060
because you're going to see what one of the hangups are. The Democrats are their number one
00:37:16.020
objective, which always before was to keep the government funded and keep the government going.
00:37:20.420
Because remember, they're the party of big government. Uh, they've had kind of a shift,
00:37:25.700
because there's a guy in the White House called Donald J. Trump, and he's supported by a, uh,
00:37:30.980
a folks in this country that wear the MAGA t-shirt. So they're not so hot on this. Let's play it.
00:37:36.420
We're going to set the strategic context of the firestorm that's going to be before us in the days
00:37:42.420
and weeks ahead. Let's go into it balances out. And we will. None of that's guaranteed. We'll see
00:37:47.060
what those numbers look like. Did Elon Musk approve of the blueprint that you passed last
00:37:51.380
night? Did he think there were enough spending cuts in there? Well, we haven't gotten to that
00:37:56.100
yet. These are, these are numbers, a floor, at least 1.5 trillion in savings that we're going to
00:38:01.300
find, uh, and trying to get higher, maybe 2 trillion or higher. Um, it's a start. Look,
00:38:07.140
you don't turn an aircraft carrier on a dime. It takes miles of open ocean to turn an aircraft
00:38:11.380
carrier. That's what the U S economy is. It took decades to get into this situation,
00:38:15.140
but we are going to begin to bend that curve. It's a great thing for the country.
00:38:18.260
I was just curious since you met with him after, uh, after this happened, uh, speaking of, you know,
00:38:22.500
deadlines that are a lot sooner than what you're talking about, there's a shutdown deadline that
00:38:25.540
is looming on March 14th, which you well know. Do you think Congress is going to end up passing
00:38:29.700
another continuing resolution then? Well, look, I wish we didn't have to, but it looks like the
00:38:34.420
Democrats are trying to push us into that. They've added these really crazy conditions onto the
00:38:39.300
negotiation over the last week or so. They've added a condition that says we have to tie the
00:38:43.700
hands of president Trump, that the legislative branch would, they want us to dictate to the
00:38:48.580
executive branch. For example, a base number of employees for each agency in the executive branch.
00:38:53.860
I don't even think it's constitutional what they're requiring, but it's certainly, uh, an absurd
00:38:58.340
notion, but they're standing by that. So CR go. Do you believe if, well, we haven't negotiated that
00:39:04.180
yet, but if it's a CR, it may be an entire year long CR with some anomalies on it. You know how
00:39:08.420
all this works, but it's not what we prefer. We would like to do individual appropriations bills,
00:39:12.980
but it takes post both parties to negotiate that. And right now the Democrats are trying to,
00:39:18.020
it looks like trying to set up a government shutdown. We can't allow that to happen.
00:39:21.380
And we won't. Well, you just talked about how important the work that Elon Musk is doing is
00:39:25.220
if you pass a continuing resolution, won't that just refund all the programs that he says he's
00:39:29.620
cutting that are full of waste, fraud, and abuse? No, look, you can, that's why I say you
00:39:34.660
add anomalies to a CR. You can increase the spending. You can decrease the spending. You
00:39:38.900
can add language that, that says, for example, the dramatic changes that have been made to USAID
00:39:44.420
would be reflected in the ongoing spending. Uh, it would be a clean CR mostly, I think. Uh,
00:39:49.780
but with some of those changes to, uh, to adapt to the new realities here and the new reality is
00:39:55.140
less government, more efficiency, uh, better return for the taxpayers. And I think that's something
00:40:00.100
everybody should welcome. Okay. Let's interpret because this first time has been said, I think,
00:40:05.620
publicly and Caitlin Collins, uh, I think did a good job there in trying to draw it out of them
00:40:09.460
only months after the war room, but that's fine. Um, the Democrats, we go back to the, uh, the, um,
00:40:18.660
unitary executive theory, uh, where the executive is chief executive commander, chief and chief
00:40:26.500
magistrate has these powers enumerated by the constitution or laid out by the constitution.
00:40:34.180
Right there, Johnson told you that in the negotiations on a CR, whether it's a 30 day
00:40:39.620
CR or to the end of the year, or I would actually think in appropriations, if we did it with the
00:40:47.060
single subject, which is what we want, which they haven't done. And Johnson can't put all of that on
00:40:51.380
the Democrats. He's only done seven of the 12, but that's kind of, we've kind of blown past that
00:40:56.580
folks. What he's saying is the Democrats are going to sit there and say, no, we're not buying off on
00:41:03.860
Trump having these powers and I can buy off on his, on his new buddy, Elon Musk having these powers.
00:41:08.500
We're not going to do it. We're going to, we're going to basically set a base case of employees.
00:41:12.820
And I think programmatically bottom line, there's not, there's not going to be a CR unless you get
00:41:18.980
100% of Republican votes. And as we know, and this audience knows, there's at least 40 to 70 votes
00:41:26.580
in the house and the Republican side are saying, we can't do this again. This is a tantamount to
00:41:31.300
another omnibus. We're not going to do this. What he's saying about anomalies is it won't be a clean
00:41:38.420
CR. It won't be a one-liner. The anomalies will be, because remember I said, hey, you're going to have
00:41:44.340
to eat. It's Biden's budget. It's $2 trillion deficit and none of the doge cuts and what she
00:41:49.380
just said, not that not only the doge cuts, not in there, you're financing the negative. You're
00:41:54.500
financing USAID. So he says, there's going to be anomalies. That's going to be in the actual CR itself.
00:42:03.380
In addition, and this is why we had Tietzel kind of last man standing. There's only a couple of guys
00:42:09.700
over CRA, they're staffing up again because so many of their people are in the administration.
00:42:14.340
Jeff Clark yesterday going to go in as the anti-regulation chief. God bless that. That's
00:42:19.540
amazing. Pay a letter over at OMB as the chief counsel. Dan Bishop's about to get, I think, about
00:42:25.940
to get confirmed, the great Dan Bishop, the congressman, and Russ Vogt with Scott Besson and
00:42:31.460
you know, Jason Treniter, Treasury, Alexander Preet. You got Treasury, you got OMB.
00:42:35.620
And what they have said is that, hey, war room posse, MAGA movement, even on the CR,
00:42:44.020
the impoundments will start shortly thereafter. The impoundments will start. So we're heading,
00:42:52.420
and this is why I had Josh Hammer kind of start the show, folks. Get ready. Not today, not tomorrow.
00:43:00.020
tomorrow. We got to get more details. You need more information. You need to be fully loaded on
00:43:05.380
this one because this sets, as I said, this sets a series of events. This critical path will set a
00:43:13.700
series of events that will go all through the reconciliation, all through the taxes, all through
00:43:19.220
everything President Trump's trying to do. Remember that middle corridor, that middle vertical is the
00:43:23.940
financial and economic crisis that's so important, that's existential to the country and to his
00:43:30.100
presidency, his second term. You have the two things on the side, stopping the kinetic part of the
00:43:35.700
Third World War. Oh, did I mention that the British Prime Minister is about to show up about stopping
00:43:41.780
the war in Ukraine? And President Trump way down the road and stopping the war in the Middle East.
00:43:48.180
And in addition, the deportation securing the border. The border has been kind of secured.
00:43:55.780
Deportations in the top couple of batters in the first inning. But that middle vertical,
00:44:02.340
game on in the nation's capital with President Trump in the MAGA team. Short break.
00:44:07.620
What if he had the brightest mind in the war room delivering critical financial research every month?
00:44:14.260
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00:45:20.100
Okay. What I just laid out is kind of everything, and we're going to frame it more and make sure
00:45:31.540
you're fully up to speed and fully understanding this, because this, between now and the 14th,
00:45:35.720
is going to be big league. And it's going to set the, it's going to lay the predicate. And you just
00:45:42.440
heard, and Grace, I'll get it cut. Grace will get it cut. I'm going to play it again on the six o'clock
00:45:47.780
show. What E.J. and Tony said at the end of the first hour, that three or four minutes is reality.
00:45:53.720
I don't believe the White House is doing enough, and we'll do it, but to get out what the actual
00:45:59.100
position of the American economy is. You saw from these numbers today, the inflation number for the
00:46:06.200
fourth quarter was 4.2%, not 2.2%. As the Biden regime said, the Biden regime, every number they gave
00:46:12.000
you had to be reset, particularly in labor. We've gone through that. But this thing is not good right now.
00:46:17.180
And President Trump was handed a disaster. And it's going to take some real leadership,
00:46:23.120
some real discernment, and just flat old toughness. This is going to be painful. It just is. It just
00:46:32.360
is. You don't spend this much money. You don't get this messed up. It's $175 billion they want for
00:46:39.280
the deportation program. Like, what happened to the infrastructure? Where'd it go? $175 billion?
00:46:45.340
Do you understand the scale of that? The breathtaking scale of that? It's across the board. It's
00:46:49.240
everything. This is also China. On Tuesday, President Trump just said a China 10% tariff.
00:46:57.120
Hey, Jace Medical, this is the reason they're a sponsor of ours, because they know we understand
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this. Rosemary Gibson and the whole thing about the supply chain. You've been warned. So go to the
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site and just check it out. The Chinese Communist Party are just not going to sit there and take that.
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It has to be done. What President Trump's doing is smart. It's timely. We've got this, we've got
00:47:19.600
this trade deficit was 100, I think the trade deficit was $100 billion in December. And they're
00:47:24.540
blaming, oh, getting ahead of the tariffs. That's not the case. Totally different. JaceMedical.com
00:47:29.900
slash Bannon. Go check it out today. Go to the site and get Dr. Sean. Those guys are all open
00:47:35.080
to talk to you. Also, MyPatriotSupply.com. I think now's the time to think through,
00:47:41.480
hey, you know, it used to be the preppers were considered kind of kooky or wingnuts. Not anymore.
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You got to get ahead of the game here. MyPatriotSupply.com, the best company in the
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preparation business. They got consultants on the phone that walk you through all of it. That's one
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of the reasons we love partnering with these companies that give you access to information.
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We understand the Warren Posse wants to see the receipts and your power comes from using
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your agency when you get those receipts. That's what's going to have to happen over these next
00:48:11.160
days and weeks ahead. We're about to pivot into some tough stuff, folks. It's going to get,
00:48:15.520
it's going to get gnarly. Just is. They're not the votes there now. I mean, as it sits today,
00:48:22.840
just given where we are, you know, President Trump's government will basically shut down at right
00:48:28.200
after midnight on the 14th, unless we get through a very tough political process in the CR.
00:48:35.160
And President Trump, I think it's going to make the case. I think you'll hear some of this today.
00:48:38.660
At the same time, he's trying to bring peace to the Eurasian landmass. Charlie Kirk's going to
00:48:44.940
follow us. You're going to have Sir Keir Starmer show up, the prime minister of the United Kingdom.
00:48:51.940
He's a labor guy, leftist. There'll be a lot of activity this afternoon. There'll be the press
00:48:56.700
conference. Natalie will be here at five. I may dip in and out of that, but I'll definitely be here at
00:49:02.220
six to make sure we go through, you know, what is important from today. And a couple of things I
00:49:09.180
think have been missed in all this. Number one, that chat, I'm getting Colonel Fennell, Captain Fennell
00:49:14.700
to join me from overseas to go through what's happening. These intelligence agencies, these people in
00:49:19.240
these chat rooms, and his point, because he's spent his career in naval intelligence, how he gets
00:49:27.180
beyond just intelligence. How legal is this? Anyway, tons are going on. Roger Kimball, one of the
00:49:31.540
smartest guys, is going to also join me where I go through this day. Another historic day. Tamara
00:49:35.960
Zelensky, President Trump, doing it all. And we're, and I got to tell you, I'm so impressed with EJ
00:49:42.240
and Tony. You know, he's one of the guys that are trying to get in, and I'm saying, hey, we got to have
00:49:45.140
some guys on the outside, can help explain this stuff. That four minutes, and I'll cut it and make
00:49:50.500
Grace from Schwerber gets it, and I'm going to play it again on the six, was the single best summary in
00:49:55.360
three or four minutes of exactly where the economy stands in the mess that President Trump was handed.
00:50:01.580
Mike Lindell, and folks, you should know something about Lindell. I've gotten to be a personal friend
00:50:05.680
and a colleague and a comrade over the last couple of years, but there's so much, this guy gets
00:50:11.620
attacked more than anybody but Trump. And I say that as a guy that went to federal prison.
00:50:18.460
They're after Lindell much more, and they're after me nonstop. They're after Lindell
00:50:22.460
constantly, constantly, constantly. They feel that his connection, he's kind of a Trump that can connect
00:50:28.700
to a working class audience. And particularly Mike then brings in, because he was saved late in his
00:50:33.780
life, you know, he found God and he found Jesus Christ late in his life. Because you read his book,
00:50:37.980
he was a degenerate, right? I mean, degenerate gambler, you know, drugs, the whole thing. But
00:50:43.820
books, I mean, I meet this guy and I say, you're one of the nicest men ever from me. And man, I read
00:50:47.980
that book, you're a flat out gangster. But that's one of the reasons they're after you, Mike Lindell.
00:50:53.860
They understand your conversion story is powerful. You understand how you live your faith is powerful.
00:50:59.160
They understand the message you are just being successful you are and having a happy,
00:51:04.000
successful company is what they want to destroy. And they're trying to destroy you, sir, Mike Lindell.
00:51:10.200
Yeah, it's horrible right now, everybody. And I've decided this morning after talking to my lawyers and
00:51:16.760
CPAs and the Treasury Department, by the way, the IRS has attacked my pillow. And it's something that's
00:51:24.100
going to affect everyone, most people in this country. And we're at the tip of the spear.
00:51:29.040
I'm going all at them. I'm going after the IRS for what they're doing to us right now.
00:51:34.420
And I'll have full disclosure on that, maybe a full report on that for you all as soon as I'm
00:51:40.640
going to find out everything I can and can't say this afternoon. But as far as I'm going,
00:51:44.260
I'm telling it all. I mean, what they're doing is horrific. And this was when Biden left,
00:51:50.460
he put this little thing in here. Let's start with my pillow. Keith Ellison in Minnesota to go after
00:51:57.480
this has been going on all week, piling on since the president did his great shout out for myself
00:52:04.260
and others that have helped this secure our elections and helped him out. And then Keith Ellison,
00:52:12.740
the day after he went in, all attacking my Lindell Recovery Network and also my Lindell Foundation,
00:52:20.820
Lindell Outreach, all the stuff that I put all the funding in.
00:52:24.460
And it's like, it is very intentional and it's very, and they're going, why are they attacking
00:52:32.040
you, Mike? Donald Trump's already in and thinks, boy, you should get relief now. No, it's even worse
00:52:37.700
now because I think they realize I'm not going to stop until we get to secure elections. And like
00:52:44.480
Steve said, they don't like the fact that it's the American dream and be able to get to find Jesus
00:52:50.560
Christ, my Lord and Savior. They're against all, everything that good stands for.
00:52:57.440
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