Trade Deficits are the number one economic problem facing the United States, and it's one that President Trump is trying to fix. In this episode, Rick and Andrew discuss the impact of trade deficits, the dark side of them, and the role of the Federal Reserve in addressing them.
00:00:00.000Harris and the Biden administration was the intrusion of corporations.
00:00:04.780They don't have an allegiance to the U.S.
00:00:07.200That's that's the heart of the problem in Trump's mind is the elite multinational corporations know no borders.
00:00:14.080The money goes everywhere in the free trade global and globalism has been in reverse really since COVID.
00:00:21.740The problem is, is that the direction of that reversal was wrong.
00:00:25.200And maybe if Trump had a second term instead of Biden, instead of Vietnam and some of the alternate places that were extracted from China during COVID, maybe it would have come to the U.S.
00:00:36.360Maybe that would have helped Andrew's question of how long it's going to take for onshoring to occur.
00:00:41.620I'll tell you what, the structural issues of rejiggering trade are not going to be easy.
00:00:48.180But in the end, once again, it comes to you know, I was doing Santelli exchanges on the end of globalism 10 years ago.
00:00:59.320Ultimately, if you live in the U.S. or you live in Europe or you live in China, ultimately what goes on at home is very important.
00:01:07.300And after World War II, when the United States was way up here economically and everybody else was in melting ruins, we created this structure and the structure is outlived its usefulness in many ways.
00:01:20.580And to try to tweak this, while no economy shuts down for maintenance is not going to be.
00:02:31.440What about all of the folks in China and India and other places who've been buying Nikes, who've been buying Starbucks, who've been going to McDonald's?
00:03:12.680That's why Trump's reversing it, because we have thirty seven trillion dollars worth of how it works.
00:03:18.560If we didn't have trade surpluses and we didn't have a Fed that left rates at zero, maybe the pain of overspending would hit home much sooner.
00:03:27.520Rick, if you don't have that, but if you don't have the trade deficit, then you won't.
00:03:33.620You're not going to collect the revenue that you want, I think, from those tariffs.
00:03:39.820I think Trump would be happy with that.
00:03:42.680I think the people who used to talk about economic freedom are suddenly talking about something a little different, that that there was a time when I've never talked about economic freedom.
00:04:22.920The reason they never talk about it, they don't want to talk about it because that exposes the con and the scam.
00:04:29.820And President Trump's up on True Social.
00:04:31.560What's the thing he's got with – what's the thing he's got with – with telling China that you overplayed it because China came back and punched back at 34 percent?
00:04:42.580You know, all this issue with Trump being too soft on China and I would get all this grief behind the scenes.
00:04:51.900Oh, Bannon, you anti-CCP, you and the new federal state of China and you and the Committee on the Present Danger, China, and you've got this and you've got that.
00:05:00.580And Rogan in the book called you guys the super hawks.
00:05:03.860You didn't even believe in the Chinese Communist Party and Trump's rubbing up on China and saying how much he loves China.
00:05:08.580And President Trump respects President Xi, he says that.
00:05:13.080He respects the Chinese people as we do.
00:05:15.640We don't respect the Chinese Communist Party.
00:05:19.860We're not fans of Xi, but President Trump, he's got – he runs his own deal.
00:05:23.340But you talk about the biggest situation of decoupling, he signed an executive order about it.
00:05:30.980He's talked about the three island chains and sent Pete Hexas over there to reinforce what our strategy is going to be.
00:05:37.860And when Xi's at his weakest moment, when they're trying to shovel as much coal into the furnace as possible to keep the whole three-card money that is the Chinese economy from collapsing on them,
00:05:54.860Trump and their complete export-driven country and those exports have to come to the United States, high-value edit.
00:06:13.940And they came back and it was blistering talk in a 34 percent and they let the world know, hey, we'll see and maybe we'll match and maybe we'll raise it.
00:09:31.000Obviously, Peter Navarro does a great job.
00:09:32.500I think Howard Lutnick at Commerce is doing a pretty good job.
00:09:36.300Now, he a little bit got out of harness last night and said, hey, we're going to, you know, bring back, you know, all the robots and have robot jobs.
00:10:31.080And that's why these big corporations, it's one thing for these private equity funds or the Saudi sovereign wealth fund or these guys, which I'm not a fan of.
00:10:40.040These guys put money in the United States, but they're looking for investment opportunities.
00:10:44.580It shows you that they're hungry to put money here.
00:10:47.240But that's different than these corporations.
00:10:49.500When these top corporations in the world put big dollars in the back of plant and equipment, they need stability.
00:10:56.200And, yes, you need to also build the ecosystem.
00:11:51.300I'm not sure I'll buy Jesse's first assertion.
00:11:54.380I think you can, and you can do it without robotics.
00:11:56.660I think you can smartly bring it back.
00:11:59.680And entrepreneurs in this country are going to bring it back.
00:12:03.280This is why we were just the other day.
00:12:04.840The other part going on here is President Trump's got entire Justice Department looking at breaking up the big monopolies.
00:12:11.060The argument these – the big – the corporatists and the oligarchs trying to make, oh, with China so ahead of us on so many things, we have to have national champions like the French Jews.
00:12:20.980Do you have to have essentially monopolistic power?
00:13:24.400Have those organs of information – have they ever been on your side?
00:13:29.680Are they the ones – you know, what's unifying them?
00:13:31.900They're the ones that took Trump most seriously when he first came on the scene in 14 and 15, didn't they?
00:13:36.240They're the ones that really took time to think through what President Trump was talking about and really got away from the personal attacks.
00:13:42.020They really – the last 10 years, those organizations I just named, they have gotten their hands dirty in saying exactly what has Trump been saying in his vision for American, American workers.
00:13:53.320And why is it at the rallies that these people, the working-class people, come out?
00:13:57.200They're the ones that wrote all the articles that didn't mock and ridicule President Trump's followers.
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00:18:21.860See, I'm here manning the ramparts in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, because this is where the real action is taking place for the defense of the republic.
00:18:32.940This is where we won in 2024, was going through Harrisburg.
00:18:39.700These are the areas, Harrisburg and then west of here.
00:18:42.380This is exactly the spot where the people who are going to benefit from Trump's great deal and these new tariffs and the geostrategic reconfiguration of the global economy.
00:18:53.520So that's why I'm here at the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference.
00:18:56.700This is a gathering of the deplorables all across Pennsylvania.
00:19:09.580And we've even got a couple of posse members that are here.
00:19:12.460This is action oriented because we're building out the infrastructure for 2026 and beyond.
00:19:19.300Yeah, it's the purpose today to make sure that that the 2024 massive victory in Pennsylvania is not a one off event that in a midterm.
00:19:30.480What's we make sure that what happened the other day in Wisconsin does not happen in Pennsylvania because that happens in Pennsylvania on the first week of January, 2027.
00:19:42.040Donald Trump, there'll be a move to impeach Donald Trump by Hakeem Jeffries.
00:29:51.640A former CIA, Pentagon, and White House advisor with an unmatched grasp of geopolitics and capital markets.
00:29:58.280Jim predicted Trump's Electoral College victory exactly 312 to 226, down to the actual number itself.
00:30:06.960Now he's issuing a dire warning about April 11th, a moment that could define Trump's presidency in your financial future.
00:30:15.360His latest book, Money GPT, exposes how AI is setting the stage for financial chaos, bank runs at lightning speeds, algorithm-driven crashes, and even threats to national security.
00:30:26.920Right now, war room members get a free copy of Money GPT when they sign up for Strategic Intelligence.
00:30:33.060This is Jim's flagship financial newsletter, Strategic Intelligence.
00:30:52.120It's also possible that the effects could be more persistent.
00:30:57.420Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,
00:31:02.020on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices.
00:31:07.280Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,
00:31:12.060and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.
00:31:19.500We'll continue to carefully monitor the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
00:31:24.840We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.
00:31:30.820It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.
00:31:35.460We understand the benefits of a solid economy where workers can find jobs and inflation is low and predictable.
00:31:43.800We also understand that elevated levels of unemployment or inflation can be damaging and painful for communities, families, and businesses.
00:31:52.060That is why we at the Fed will continue to do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.
00:31:59.640Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
00:32:57.460You were talking about the economy as being a very strong economy.
00:32:58.460You characterized inflation as coming down, employment as being very strong still.
00:33:03.460However, President Trump earlier this week when asked about the market volatility we've been seeing said the volatility was, quote, to be expected.
00:33:16.460And a lot of voters did and do agree with that assessment, or at least in part.
00:33:22.460I'm wondering how you would respond to that assessment and the disconnect between the story of the data and the way a lot of people are feeling about the economy.
00:35:09.460So I guess I would say let's start with the fact that the incoming data right through this morning's employment report, which admittedly is from roughly a month ago, the week of March 12, they took the data in.
00:35:42.460And many of them have raised the likelihood, albeit from very low levels.
00:35:46.460It's not, it's not, it's not something that, that anybody now is forecasting or some people are starting to.
00:35:53.460And so I can't, there's not much more I can say about that.
00:35:57.460I realize that the uncertainty is high.
00:35:59.460And, you know, what we've learned is that the tariffs are higher than anticipated, higher than almost all forecasters predicted.
00:36:07.460We're just going to, we still don't know where that comes to rest though.
00:36:10.460And we're just going to have to see that through.
00:36:13.460At a congressional hearing last year, one of the U.S. representatives said that you were pretty boring.
00:36:20.460And you thanked him and said that you considered that a very high compliment.
00:36:26.460And in fact, I feel like it's one of the roles of the Federal Reserve, especially since the housing crisis,
00:36:31.460to be kind of a ballast, especially in the face of the volatility of the markets and the dramatics that you can experience with the economy.
00:36:40.460Very steady, no surprises, very reliable.
00:36:44.460In a moment like this, which also has a lot of drama and unpredictability, but it is not necessarily from an economic crisis.
00:36:58.460How do you see your role in this moment?
00:37:01.460So I think all of the values that you touched on are, in fact, the values that we try to live by.
00:37:06.460You know, we're driven by, you know, analysis and careful thought and discussion and debate and the merits of things.
00:37:15.460We try to stay as far as we can from the political process.
00:37:18.460We don't look at political cycles or things like that.
00:37:21.460So, and I think people expect that from us.
00:37:24.460They expect us to tell the truth and that's what we're going to do.
00:37:27.460But at the same time, we're not part of, we don't want to be part of the broader political discussion about the wisdom of policies that are not assigned to us.
00:37:35.460We're not responsible for trade policy, immigration policy, fiscal policy.
00:37:40.460So we don't comment on, those decisions are made by others and what we do is we use our tools to try to achieve the goals that Congress assigned us,
00:37:48.460which is maximum employment and price stability.
00:37:51.460So I like to think that over time, we're a source of calm, rational analysis and also of stability.
00:37:58.460That's really what the business that we're in is providing, financial and macroeconomic stability to the public.
00:38:07.460So how can businesses and individuals and the Fed make plans for the future when so much is being dictated by the actions of a single person?
00:38:19.460And do you see yourself as the consoler in chief on economic matters?
00:38:28.460What's happening is, as I mentioned, the new administration is making, you know, significant policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation.
00:38:37.460And this is, this is the, you're still just a couple of months into the administration and that process will take place.
00:38:44.460And at a certain point, the new policies will be on the table.
00:38:47.460They will be having the effects they're going to have on the economy and uncertainty will decline.
00:38:52.460Right now, there's a lot of uncertainty about where, where all that's going to sort out, the forms it will take and what the economic effects will be.
00:38:59.460If you fast forward a year from now, the uncertainty should be much lower.
00:39:03.460The actual effects of the policies should then be pretty manifest and clear.
00:39:07.460So I think, I understand why, by, it's, it's, it just is highly uncertain, both what the policies will turn out to be, exactly what they'll turn out to be, and also what their effects will be in the near term.
00:39:19.460We just have to go through that process.
00:39:20.460And, you know, it is just kind of a manifestation of our election cycle and a new administration coming in with, with new, with new, new policies.
00:39:29.460I mean, given the, all of the change happening and the fact that we are in a period where things have not settled in yet, and that the Federal Reserve and you as chair are very projection, data-driven, policy-driven, how do you handle a moment like now?
00:39:45.460I mean, can you tweak your plans and projections?
00:39:48.460Do you just kind of, do you have to reset them?
00:39:51.460So, you know, we, what we've had since, in the last few months is, from the staff, has been a placeholder.
00:39:58.460Rather, they wouldn't call it a forecast because it's so uncertain.
00:40:21.460We've, we've taken a step back and we're, we're watching to see what the policies turn out to be and, and the ways in which they will affect the economy.
00:42:43.460And the trend here, you got to stop, which I never want to talk about is a $25 trillion.
00:42:47.460Stephanie rule, get, get on your show tonight.
00:42:50.460Some working class people and some union people and ask them about the $25 trillion deficit, where that trade deficit, where they come from.
00:42:57.460That came from shipping all the hype value added manufacturing jobs over to China.
00:43:01.460And then we had to buy the finished products based upon borrowed money, some of which the Chinese Communist Party helped us finance.
00:43:11.460But so Jack up in Harrisburg, once again, tell the audience what Harrisburg is about.
00:43:15.460Why are you guys there for a two day conference on a beautiful spring weekend and introduce our guest.
00:43:21.460Well, Steve, we're here to send a message to little Josh Shapiro that we're here, that Pennsylvania is actually a red state, that Pennsylvania is Trump country.
00:43:34.460And we're building out the infrastructure to make sure that Pennsylvania stays that way.
00:43:40.460Because Pennsylvanians understand the importance of rebuilding and actually revitalizing our towns and our West and our industrial capacity that have been totally sold overseas by people like his party and people like the people that have helped him.
00:43:56.460And we've got some great grassroots activists here today, members of the posse.
00:44:00.460Tell folks where you're where you're from and what you're up to doing.
00:44:03.460Sandra Gonzalez, Short County, Pennsylvania.
00:44:05.460Steve, I'm running for school board and I want to thank you for firing us up.
00:44:10.460And when I could not find a good candidate to run for school board, I stepped up because if we don't do it, Steve, who's going to?
00:44:18.460And I just want to say, you know, I want to thank the president for just hammering it every day, every day.
00:44:26.460I was just telling Jack, it's like the Democrats and the liberals are punch drunk.
00:44:30.460And like before they even know the blow that they just took, he's throwing another blow.
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