Stephanie Ruhle is taking a deep breath as she talks about the impact of the Trump administration's trade tariffs on the economy and the bond and stock markets. She also talks about China and its impact on the global economy.
00:00:00.000And I am Stephanie Ruhle, and I don't care if you need one, but I am definitely taking a deep breath right now.
00:00:07.460I suspect you need one, too. It is day 81 of the second Trump administration, and we've got a lot of money, power, politics to talk about.
00:00:15.120Look for historical parallel, and it's really, really hard.
00:00:18.020The closest thing you can come to would be wartime, perhaps, perhaps, you know, getting into a war we didn't need to get into.
00:00:23.520We could say Vietnam, we could say Iraq.
00:00:25.380But outside of that, outside of a national security wartime kind of thing, I can't think of a president who has done more to undercut his own presidency so early, so dramatically, and affect so many other lives, right?
00:00:40.580A lot of presidents make mistakes in their early days, although not usually in their second term.
00:00:44.860They nominate somebody who gets in trouble.
00:00:47.480There may be a scandal, something they forgot to tell us or they didn't want to tell us.
00:00:51.600But I can't think of anybody who has done more to sort of sow worldwide uncertainty, you know, drain out literally trillions of dollars worth of market cap for all these companies,
00:01:03.660essentially retirement savings for many Americans, not to mention the uncertainty in Washington where tens of thousands of people have suddenly been told they're out of a job,
00:01:12.540and services are no longer going to be provided, that they had come to depend on and foreign aid to places that, you know, are suffering from disease and hunger.
00:01:22.300So much has happened in just 11 weeks.
00:01:24.440There is no parallel, I think, in American history.
00:01:29.440It has been over a week since this trade disaster began.
00:01:33.280And I have spent that week speaking to investors here and abroad.
00:01:36.900And what I feel most tonight is scared, scared that what we are facing is a crisis of confidence, confidence in us, the United States of America.
00:01:49.180And what I have not heard from any of the people that I speak to is exactly what might restore that confidence in the United States, at least not right now.
00:01:59.080Yes, the markets rallied yesterday, but that is only because we avoided the 50 plus percent tariffs across the globe.
00:02:05.740But the reality has set in today because we still have the rest of these tariffs and the markets continue to sink, both the bond and stock market, in part because the basis by which we're negotiating trade is not rooted in truth.
00:02:22.480And for those who believe countries are scrambling to make a deal because they were so panicked about the enormous tariffs and now they're much lower, my question is, what is that deal?
00:02:31.140What do you think the likes of Vietnam can do to erase our trade deficit?
00:02:39.620And if you want to onshore all of our manufacturing, if you want to do that, what Peter Navarro talked about, what Howard Lettman talked about, you want to do that?
00:02:47.900It'll take trillions of dollars and 20 years to reconfigure the global supply chain and bring it all home.
00:02:55.440And for our allies in the West, those developed countries, they are certainly not rushing to partner back up with us.
00:03:03.720Not with a U.S. president who goes on national TV laughing, saying they're all kissing my ass.
00:03:10.140It is safe to say that the perch we and our American exceptionalism sat on, even a few months ago, has certainly been lowered.
00:03:21.120We've got an agriculture secretary who tells us, build a chicken coop in your backyard because eggs are expensive.
00:03:27.500We have a defense secretary sharing military secrets in a group chat.
00:03:31.980We are potentially lawlessly firing thousands of federal workers and defunding science while we buy crypto.
00:03:41.340We have lost an enormous amount of credibility and trust.
00:03:45.260But what scares me is that every investor I speak to, even some who support this president, has given me the same message.
00:03:55.040If the bond market continues to drop and drop and drop, you know where it goes?
00:04:34.160From our perspective, China's killed over a million Americans with deadly fentanyl and related drugs.
00:04:41.960And it simply refuses to do anything about that.
00:04:46.440Many of these people are prime age workers.
00:04:48.860So they not only kill Americans, they're killing our workforce.
00:04:54.700At the same time, as you know, Maria, and we talk a lot about this, since 2001, China has destroyed over 60,000 American factories and stolen over 5 million manufacturing jobs.
00:05:13.900If we've still got the antibodies to defend ourselves as a democracy, if our civil society is still working, if our legal profession is still on the job, what we ought to see here in response to this, in response to what will be not just these two guys being targeted, it'll be a dozen, it'll be a hundred, it'll be a thousand of these.
00:05:34.760If Trump likes how this one goes and he hasn't stopped from doing it, what we ought to see here, if our democracy is still kicking, what we ought to see here is a battalion of the highest end lawyers in the country flooding in to provide Chris Krebs and Miles Taylor with free legal representation and with the kind of no holds barred, super aggressive legal fight that Judge Ludig is describing today.
00:06:04.760As the biggest, poshest, most powerful law firms in the country, even tonight, continue to suck up to Trump and promise to do him favors in exchange for him no longer criticizing them or threatening them?
00:06:17.480Do we still have the juice as a country?
00:06:25.520Are all the pretty words America's most prominent lawyers are famous for about the rule of law and no fear or favor, are all those just pretty words?
00:07:30.880It's Friday, 11 April, year of early, 2025.
00:07:39.780Of course, a total meltdown you heard by Peter Baker in the New York Times as President Trump reorganizes the global world order around an America first, an American citizens first.
00:07:51.220And this is what you're seeing, that President Trump is doing it both geo-economically and geo-strategically.
00:08:22.720Because after the Gulf War in the early 90s, they came to the conclusion they can't fight foreign devils mano a mano with modern technology because foreign devils are too far ahead of them.
00:08:33.680We would be the foreign devils, by the way.
00:08:35.420The foreign devils in the West were too far ahead of them on military technology.
00:08:39.220So they would do everything else, unrestricted warfare to bring down the West.
00:08:43.260And they've been at it for 20, 25 years, but particularly since May of 2019.
00:08:50.240Take your number two prince of Latin, write down May of 2019.
00:08:53.340That is the most important geopolitical month in the 21st century until President Trump came to office.
00:09:02.980And what you've seen in the first, what is it, 80 days or so?
00:09:18.060They're not happy at all because President Trump is reorganizing this around putting the country's interests first, not the globalist institutions and the globalist elites' interests first.
00:09:30.900And he's putting American citizens first, not the globalists first.
00:09:34.940And they don't like it because nobody's ever done that.
00:09:37.380Even President Reagan is the greatest President Reagan was.
00:09:40.600He had a different set of issues at the time.
00:09:43.460President Trump came back after having the election stolen from him in 2020 and began a journey, a journey that you've been on.
00:10:25.800And the one last night is inserting, you know, the courts inserting themselves between President Trump being commander in chief and doing his duty as commander in chief.
00:10:36.220And so the you see where the judiciary is coming out of some of this and it's going to be a fight.
00:10:41.260Every one of these verticals is going to be a fight.
00:10:43.520Every time, every part of the institution they're pushing back on is going to be a fight.
00:10:48.080But lo and behold, lo and behold, we had a print this morning on the producer price index.
00:10:55.400Dave Brat's going to join me in a moment.
00:11:09.880Reorganizing the American – the world trading system around America first and bringing five million manufacturing jobs back, which they all say can't be done.
00:11:43.280The reason I believe a big reason for the bond market, for people being questioning, is this reconciliation we passed yesterday with very few details about it other than the fact that we're not going to really cut spending.
00:11:57.680The 1.7 – the 1.5 trillion that the House – they wouldn't even include it in language and the Senate is kind of tap dancing around and people are tap dancing around is over 10 years.
00:12:08.860It shows you we're not serious about cutting spending.
00:12:11.220And cutting spending, as we said, from – I'm going to pick a random date – February of 2021 when we, this show, nailed it more than any other business show, any other show on politics.
00:12:23.320That said at the time the Biden stimulus program was going to cause massive inflation and stagflation, and it did both.
00:12:34.660And the only reason the model continues to work, their model continues to work with massive Keynesian infusion of stimulus with $2 trillion a year in deficits.
00:13:35.300Five million manufacturing jobs have gone.
00:13:37.800Nine million Americans are working at least two jobs today.
00:13:41.200Sixty percent of Americans can't put their hands on $1,000 in cash in case of an emergency.
00:13:49.020The elites have made paupers of the American people, and President Trump is saying, we've had enough of this.
00:13:55.560The American people have stood on their feet in every crisis in the world to do more, to free more people in the world, and create more wealth for everyone in the world.
00:14:07.020The time's now to take care of the American people.
00:14:10.300And the folks that have created this system, that have benefited from the system, that have exploited and taken your wealth that you created, of course they don't like it.
00:14:21.860Of course they're going to sit there every day and say how awful it is, how terrible Trump is, and how awful this MAGA movement is.
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00:16:11.040The producer price index, the more wholesale side of the inflation equation, and they're big numbers, down four-tenths on headline, down four-tenths.
00:16:22.280That would be equal to where we were in October of 23, and if we find a lower number, you're going all the way back to April of 2020 in the COVID-affected era, and that was down 1.2%.
00:16:34.820Now, let's strip out food and energy, down one-tenth of a percent.
00:16:39.460That equals where we were in February, equals where we were in July to find a lower number.
00:16:45.160You're in April of 2020 at minus three-tenths.
00:16:48.960If we look at X food, energy, and trade, it is up one-tenth, also much less than we were expecting.
00:16:56.040Up one-tenth equals where we were in November of last year.
00:16:59.380To find a bigger, smaller, negative number, you're in minus eight-tenths in April of 2020.
00:17:06.040Now, let's look at year-over-year final demand, 2.7, well below our expectations of 3.3, well below 3.2 in the rearview mirror.
00:17:17.520To find a lower number, you're in September of last year, September of last year.
00:17:22.700So we see that this metric had been moving up.
00:17:26.660If we look at X food and energy from a year-over-year perspective, 3.3, less than 3.4 in the rearview mirror, less than 3.6.
00:17:35.800Expected, that equals September of last year to find a lower number.
00:17:39.520You're in August of last year at 2.8, and drumroll please, the last metric of this PPI data series, year-over-year, X food, X energy, X trade, 3.4.
00:17:49.840The only metric, higher than we were expecting by 1.10, higher than the rearview mirror by 1.10, 3.4 equals where we were in January to find a higher number.
00:18:02.800Late revisions coming in on headline last month's zero on the final demand headline now moves to a positive 1.10, and it's now minus 4.10.
00:18:12.140That means the net change is a half a percent lower, and on the X food and energy month-over-month, minus 1.10 becomes positive 1.10, so the net change is down 2.10 because the current number is down 1.10.
00:18:24.320Maybe the biggest thing that should jump out at anybody is that last week, a two-year note yield closed, get this, at 3.66, it's at 3.83.
00:18:35.200A 10-year closed at 4% last week, it's at 4.42 of 42 basis points.
00:18:41.940Think about the ramification where it's 60 on the 2.10 spread.
00:18:45.700Now, everybody's hair's on fire for all the uncertainty.
00:18:49.680Hearing all the guests say this is the biggest move they've ever seen in treasuries and whatever, well, that's because we had thin markets and very thin hours where we had extremes.
00:18:58.340Then the market comes into our own time zone.
00:19:00.540You populate that with much more trading.
00:22:05.380I don't want to give the name of the show, but you were on, you're on Conservative Talk Radio.
00:22:09.700Conservative Talk Radio is sitting there, their hair's on fire.
00:22:12.700They're running around actually pitching the running dogs of Wall Street's pitch against President Trump's America First economic policies to bring jobs back here.
00:22:23.600And my only point is, yo, you were the folks that kind of stood around and cheered while all this happened.
00:22:28.820Hey, this thing, it didn't get gutted in the dark of night.
00:22:32.300It got gutted in broad daylight with everybody sitting there and, quite frankly, the Republican Party cheering.
00:22:37.820This is why on Capitol Hill, you've got these people behind the scenes all hate Trump and all hate Trump's economic policies.
00:22:44.920That's why they're sitting there every day.
00:22:46.800You've got to see the palace intrigue stories.
00:22:49.340Peter Navarro is out and Scott Besson.
00:22:51.400Hey, nobody knows Navarro and Besson better than me, right?
00:22:58.880Scott's been on the show for a couple of years.
00:23:00.680He's really got his start in talking to media, right, because he was a guy, he was a totally private guy.
00:23:07.820He got to start talking on media here on the War Room, which is what we try to do, get people reps and get comfortable.
00:23:13.400And you ask them questions and they got to answer on the spot.
00:23:16.740Peter Navarro, you know, was a guy we brought in, Jared found, but I had known from his writings, Jared found, you know, back almost a decade ago.
00:23:24.900Peter Navarro is very, very involved in making these deals.
00:23:27.880And Peter Navarro, I tell people, Peter Navarro is a reflection of President Trump's natural instincts of how to bring jobs back here and bring manufacturing jobs.
00:24:51.440Yeah, well, the cold open lately, they've just been outstanding.
00:24:56.180The shows over the past couple weeks have just been outstanding.
00:24:59.760But one of the talking heads is screaming about a crisis in confidence and a crisis in confidence with respect to the truth.
00:25:06.860Yes, from the mainstream media and these Wall Street folks.
00:25:11.240And when I – you know, I speak in general – when I'm pinging billionaires, I'm talking about the Magnificent Seven.
00:25:17.460There's billionaires in the manufacturing sector who are great patriots.
00:25:20.840So it's kind of like, you know, China and the CCP.
00:25:24.300But these guys, this truth issue is serious.
00:25:28.180And the Wall Street Journal and these folks, they're losing their credibility by the second.
00:25:32.240Then Rachel Maddow comes in with a violin crying again.
00:25:35.700And, oh, you big law firms, don't you care about any of these, you know, beautiful words called rule of law and all these beautiful things you learn in law school?
00:26:39.840It's an amazing piece in Politico, and it's about Trump and the institutions and how the institutions are –
00:26:45.680President Trump is confronting these American institutions built by Americans over many, many decades that have turned on the American people and really represent globalist interest.
00:26:55.920And from the law firms to the universities, I've got a whole other punch list we've got to expand there like the banks.
00:27:02.180And President Trump is taking them on, and they're cratering.
00:27:05.960And Rachel Maddow, like her or not like her, she is ahead of the curve.
00:27:09.960She sees where this is going, and she puts out basically a cry for help.
00:27:14.320As yesterday, President Trump or the day before had that executive order he signed on Krebs in the voting machines, and Tulsi Gabbard came at the same time.
00:27:24.200He says, hey, over DNI, I think we've got some evidence there was messing with voting machines.
00:27:30.480And I say that as a guy that – as people know, I'm not a machine guy here.
00:27:34.080I'm a mail-in ballot to how they stole it.
00:27:35.680However, those machines, there's something up on – I've always been suspicious.
00:27:40.520It looks like that whole narrative is about to change, and Rachel Maddow is pleading on her show to have the cavalry come and save them from Trump.
00:28:01.140The reason is we'll explain it in a moment with Dave Brett from Liberty University.
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00:29:56.180Number one, people are looking for a hedge.
00:29:58.500Central banks are looking for a hedge.
00:30:00.160It's time now for you to get as knowledgeable as the central banks, and you can do it by watching the war room and also going to get all the free information we put on Birch Gold.
00:30:10.220This is why we do it, and this is why we make it free.
00:30:12.160We want to make sure we school – we learn you up.
00:30:16.580Because if you're up the learning curve, you're a much more powerful actor on this stage of global politics than supporting President Trump.
00:30:26.360You're just not repeating memes all the time.
00:30:28.440You actually say, hey, I can think this through.
00:33:36.320You know, one of the folks in the interim room that's always on top of things said, hey, you can tell in the open that they're going down swinging, that the globalists are going down swimming, and they're cornered like a rabbit animal.
00:33:49.460Now it's just personally attack on Trump, personally attack on Trump.
00:34:17.600You're the one that volunteers for everything.
00:34:18.940It's your sons and daughters or yourself back in your early days that volunteered as a patriot to defend this nation, defend the republic all over Hell's Half Acre, right?
00:34:38.320Biden would have killed for these numbers.
00:34:41.640Biden would have killed for these numbers, and it shows you President Trump's economic plan is starting to unfold.
00:34:46.320His economic plan isn't going to cause turbulence.
00:34:49.500This is why we told you we're going to go through turbulence, and we've been talking for years about the end of the dollar empire, and we conceived this with the guys at Birch.
00:35:03.380Number one, people are looking for a hedge.
00:35:05.740Central banks are looking for a hedge.
00:35:07.900It's time now for you to get as knowledgeable as the central banks, and you can do it by watching the war room and also going to get all the free information we put on Birch Gold.
00:35:17.260This is why we do it, and this is why we make it free.
00:35:24.980Because if you're up the learning curve, you're a much more powerful actor on this stage of global politics than supporting President Trump.
00:35:33.160You're just not repeating memes all the time.
00:35:35.640You actually say, hey, I can think this through.
00:36:05.920The reason everybody got all worked up the other day is because the bond market kind of froze in the morning, and Scott had to make sure they had a treasury auction of 10 years.
00:36:16.980It was oversubscribed, but Ray Dalio has told you, as much as I'm not a fan of Ray Dalio's about China, he told you, you have a failed treasury auction in the future.
00:36:26.420That could trigger some bad things, and here's the reason.
00:36:29.900We got 37 trillion in debt, and it's adding all the time, and that reconciliation bill, I think, is only going to add to it.
00:36:36.420We're going to get to that here in a moment, the real crisis, I think, which is inextricably linked to this war with the Chinese Communist Party.
00:36:44.520But President Trump, the reason they're hating on him, the reason Jamie Dimon and all these guys go on TV and hating on him, the New York Post has got to gas bringers, got to scoop Dave Brat.
00:36:55.840President Trump is what I've been a big advocate to do.
00:37:21.500They're skimming everything off the top.
00:37:23.200What they don't want to do, Dave, is actually lend money to American entrepreneurs and small businessmen.
00:37:29.800They hate that, right, because that's MAGA.
00:37:32.320Tell me what President Trump is going to do, sir.
00:37:33.840Yeah, well, what Trump's going to do is, in stark contrast to Biden, who basically left these big banks, right, it all goes back to Glass-Steagall and some legislation in the 90s, which let these giant banks, who have, you know, massive balance sheets, allowed them to do what the small banks can't do.
00:37:54.340And then they got profitable with all the hedge funds and all that.
00:37:57.440Now, Trump is saying, hey, no, you got this in reverse.
00:38:00.640You guys got the big balance sheets, and the small banks, you may not like them.
00:38:05.460They may not be as profitable, you know, per unit or whatever.
00:38:43.480You know, one of the folks in the engine room that's always on top of things said, hey, you can tell in the open that they're going down swinging,
00:38:52.200that the globalists are going down swimming, and they're cornered like a rabbit animal.
00:38:56.520Now it's just personally attack on Trump, personally attack on Trump.
00:43:36.380A former CIA, Pentagon, and White House advisor with an unmatched grasp of geopolitics and capital markets.
00:43:43.020Jim predicted Trump's Electoral College victory exactly 312 to 226, down to the actual number itself.
00:43:51.700Now he's issuing a dire warning about April 11th, a moment that could define Trump's presidency in your financial future.
00:44:00.100His latest book, Money GPT, exposes how AI is setting the stage for financial chaos, bank runs at lightning speeds, algorithm-driven crashes, and even threats to national security.
00:44:11.660Right now, war room members get a free copy of Money GPT when they sign up for Strategic Intelligence.
00:44:17.800This is Jim's flagship financial newsletter, Strategic Intelligence.
00:44:40.600He's trying to change the world order to make sure that the American citizen comes first on everything to deal with the United States of America and that America comes first.
00:44:55.740We've allowed a globalist system to develop over the last 40 or 50 years in which they've accreted all the value to themselves.
00:45:03.560We could walk you through the math, but you don't need to just look around.
00:45:06.840You can tell that, that the middle class in this country, even people with good-paying jobs, you get laid off in a tight job market, 90 days, you're not doing good.
00:45:19.880That's what President Trump's trying to break that system and bring back the high-value-added manufacturing jobs here and to recreate what we have to borrow.
00:45:28.720And people say, that's just nostalgia.
00:45:40.360Just like the situation on the southern border, as Ben's been worked through last night.
00:45:46.560This thing was all architected by human beings.
00:45:48.740I can see how the system evolved and what they did to maximize you guys defending them, you guys underwriting with your taxes and your retirements to pay for it all, and that you and your children provide the defense for it.
00:46:11.880Brad's going to stick with me for the next hour, and we're going to bring in Mike Davis, the vice-rory, because the political has got this story about the institutions.
00:46:24.060But it's about Boris and Miller and the people over these years from 21 who thought through, hey, how you have to go after the institutions.
00:46:32.180And we've talked here about this all the time.
00:46:34.960And I think it ought to actually go to phase two to expand to the state public ivies and to the banks and to the hedge funds and to the investment banks.
00:46:43.420Like they said in Godfather, hey, let's get them while we're strong.
00:47:19.420This is why you need a group like done with debt.
00:47:21.580Walk me through exactly what the guys have done with debt.
00:47:24.480If you've got a problem, what do you do?
00:47:27.220I think what people want to know in the audience is what do I have to do to find out how these guys operate, what they're going to do for me before I make any commitments?
00:48:20.680So what done with debt will do, they will put you on a course of action that's going to guarantee that your future is going to be bright again.
00:48:40.840Some people will wipe out your debt entirely for certain, you know, on certain cards or take pennies on the dollar.
00:48:46.840There are so many things that they can do for you to stop that immediately overnight, all the nasty calls and letters, and then put you on track.
00:48:56.680You have to call them, though, or go to donewithdebt.com.
00:49:01.580Because you always mention, Steve, time is not on your side.
00:49:04.480It's on the credit card company side because every time it comes up in the roster, a little more money goes on it for them, not for you, right?
00:49:14.000So if you are in this position right now.
00:49:55.900But what you can't do under any situation is just let the letter or the credit card, you put it in the drawer, that cancer is metastasizing.
00:52:00.380Actually, great piece in political about President Trump's assault on the institutions, the institutions that have betrayed, betrayed working class, the middle class of this country.
00:52:11.420Folks, President Trump's taken them on head on.
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