On today's show, Steve and Jake are joined by CNN's Jake Tapper and NBC's Kristine Romans to talk about the Dow and the bond market. They also discuss the reaction to a Moody's downgrade on the U.S. Treasuries and what it means for the economy and the stock market.
00:00:00.000Someone just said the presidency in the White House was run like a board of directors, meaning Joe was, he was a board, he was a director, but who the hell was the CEO? Who was the guy calling the final shot? It certainly wasn't Joe Biden, because his brain was mush and continues to be so. Steve, your show, always good talking to you. Good to have you back, my friend.
00:00:24.520We always have the best A-block when we T-off with you. Eric, thank you so much. Great handover, sir. Appreciate you.
00:00:33.700The great Eric Bowling. And if you haven't seen that Megyn Kelly clip, maybe we can play it later on Jake Tapper.
00:00:39.920In fact, we have Jake as part of Trash Talking MAGA and MAGA Media, and now he's confessed. Maybe we redo the open. I don't think so. I like Jake in there.
00:00:52.500OK, here's what we're going to do. A lot going on. My understanding, and this is why I was so late and kind of quick with the Florida Gators getting their acknowledgement as the national champions in college, men's college basketball.
00:01:06.780President Trump stepped in, said some great words, had a great event, great ceremony, went back in.
00:01:12.100My understanding from Jake, from Jake Sherman and everybody is that the House Freedom Corps, the deal's up there.
00:01:18.760They may be in the Roosevelt, the cabin room, maybe the Oval, they're dipping in and out.
00:01:21.820President Trump went back. As soon as President Trump invites anybody in, we're there.
00:01:45.600Congratulations also to a really great young head coach, Todd Golden, on the entire job he did, the season, the inspiration that he gave these players.
00:01:56.500He's unbelievable as a coach. I heard a lot of great things about him.
00:05:01.960They want a faster phase-out of green energy tax credits, and they want faster implementation of work requirements for Medicaid.
00:05:09.400The president, for his part, has been pushing them to pass the bill anyway over their objections,
00:05:14.180and the White House released a statement earlier today saying that any failure to pass the president's bill would be the ultimate betrayal of President Trump.
00:05:22.880That's pretty tough stuff for these members who, of course, are all conservative Republicans,
00:05:26.860and most of them in conservative Republican districts who all depend on the president's voters as well for their own political support.
00:06:36.600Tepid demand for U.S. Treasury auction shows investor jitters about tax bill and deficit.
00:06:46.220U.S. Treasury Department saw soft demand for a $16 billion sale of 20-year bonds on Wednesday with investors worried about the country's increasing debt burden as Congress wrangles with a tax and spending bill that is expected to worsen the fiscal outlook.
00:07:00.540The poorly received auction, which saw stocks and the dollar sell-off while U.S. Treasury yields rose, shows intensified investor worries about the country's ballooning debt that could spur bond market vigilantes who want more physical restraint from Washington.
00:07:15.340I told folks, hey, bond market's going to get a vote here, and we don't want the bond market dictating the terms of what the United States does.
00:07:26.500The reason you get into these situations is because your debt gets out of control and they don't see any kind of path.
00:07:34.520And remember the path, this was the path of the Treasury Secretary and the President, 6.5% of deficit to GDP, which we are now, which is not sustainable.
00:07:48.600This is why the French Assembly got turfed out.
00:07:52.520And Le Pen and company really took the majority there because in trying to cut it, they put the burden, they went full globalists and put the burden on working class people.
00:08:01.740And people said, no, it's not going to happen like that.
00:08:03.860Six and a half down to something that's sustainable to three and a half.
00:09:01.100They had a softness, sold 16 billion of 20 years today.
00:09:04.460Remember, we talked about Scott Bessett and the Treasury trying to start to go long to get some stability here?
00:09:11.640Because Yellen, like a banana republic, has just done it short because they were afraid of the appetite, given their business model.
00:09:19.520So, the 20 years over five, the 30 years over five, the 30-year mortgage is over seven or at seven.
00:09:27.800We are going to lose the ability to make our own decisions.
00:09:33.940This is why President Trump, this is another un-extraordinary event happening right now in the White House.
00:09:41.600The president's negotiating with caucuses in the House to get a deal.
00:09:48.160They've been up there, I think, all afternoon, started at three.
00:09:52.760President Trump stepped out of these negotiations or these discussions and stepped into the University of Florida, you know, basketball champions to do the event.
00:10:15.420Not since Andrew Jackson was president has so many distinguished individuals from the South been in one room, formerly when Jackson was Tennessee Volunteers.
00:10:38.680He's making it looks like he's making a deal or going through and hearing what the feedback Andy Harris said today would take 10 days, a week to 10 days to get there, that people would get there.
00:10:49.900That's one thing I think folks ought to understand, at least in the House, it looks like they're going to get to a deal.
00:12:48.480To really go down and get to it and get on an arc to a balanced budget, the six and a half percent, at least on these numbers now, as presented.
00:12:55.460And like I said, they have not included monies from tariffs, at least that I've seen.
00:13:00.880They haven't put in a growth rate or plugged in a growth rate that I think there's a consensus on.
00:13:15.140But their number one story all morning is about how the deficits go up pretty extensively in the first couple of years.
00:13:23.140Once again, Russ Vogt and the team thought it was more important to get mandatory changes to kind of bend this arc, but that's all in the out years.
00:13:41.280But you've got to go through four or five years of hell to get there.
00:13:45.040At least it looks like hell now when you look at the math.
00:13:47.220Anyway, bottom line, they're at the White House with President Trump, and I've got a feeling a deal is either going to get made or there's going to be a path, just like on tariffs.
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00:14:58.140This July, there is a global summit of BRICS nations in Rio de Janeiro, the block of emerging superpowers, including China, Russia, India and Persia, are meeting with the goal of displacing the United States dollar as the global currency.
00:15:15.160They're calling this the Rio reset as BRICS nations push forward with their plans.
00:15:22.380Dollars will decrease, bringing down the value of the dollar in your savings while this transition won't not happen overnight.
00:15:30.240But trust me, it's going to start in Rio.
00:15:32.900The Rio reset in July marks a pivotal moment when BRICS objectives move decisively from a theoretical possibility towards an inevitable reality.
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00:17:37.620Normally, in the normal course of business, this would have come out last evening, 9 or 10 o'clock, and then they would have had the rules at 1.
00:18:22.800See, this gets back to the fiscal, both the fiscal and the monetary side of this.
00:18:36.440What is going to be, you know, what are these deficits and then how are they going to be financed?
00:18:40.160And you're seeing right now the market kind of puking all over them.
00:18:43.700Number one, I think we can get over this if there's just better definitions of things and people went around and started to actually say, no, here are the numbers.
00:18:52.820Here's what we're getting from tariffs.
00:18:56.800Elon Musk is up on Capitol Hill, but it was not for, it's just been informed it was not for anything with Doge because he's not up there with the big entourage.
00:19:03.120He's actually there in his capacity as CEO of his new AI company.
00:19:08.740Remember, they spun off the AI aspects, I think, of Tesla and merged it into his other AI entity, and he's one of the big four.
00:19:15.380He's one of the four horsemen in artificial intelligence.
00:19:21.120You heard Max Tegmark today talk about that before he went over to Catholic University for that panel.
00:19:27.860Elon is up there, my understanding, meeting with the heads of the Commerce Committee and certain committees that are involved in artificial intelligence to get them up to speed on what's going on.
00:21:18.000I think the Board of Visitors, the new Board of Visitors that President Trump has put in, which has an extraordinary, just an extraordinary group of people to really help turn turn around the academy.
00:21:29.520President Trump, very dear to his heart, he's going to go up and give the commencement address at West Point.
00:21:38.880Patrick K. O'Donnell will be my wingman.
00:21:41.300We're going to do as much of our traditional Memorial Day programming as we can, given the fact that we're also going to be covering live the president at West Point.
00:21:55.120Then on Monday, we're going to be, also, we'll be live, and we're going to have, hopefully, Patrick K. O'Donnell back with me.
00:22:03.540The president is going to go to Arlington National Cemetery, where he commemorates Memorial Day for the honored dead of the United States military.
00:22:12.640And he goes and makes remarks at Arlington National Cemetery.
00:23:11.420The president is actually involved in trying to put those tours, two tours together, which everyone that follows golf wants to happen.
00:23:19.120If you saw the PGA Championship this weekend, you saw the John Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau.
00:23:26.880And you saw what we miss all the time and having those great golfers that are on the Live Tour only get a couple of times a year during the major championships to play with and against the Scotty Schefflers and the great stars of the PGA Tour.
00:23:42.720President Trump is working, has announced he's working on trying to put that together to put that behind us.
00:23:47.380But he's got many, many friends in golf very close to Gary Player.
00:23:52.000Gary Player, one of my heroes growing up, just an amazing guy from South Africa that flew the world, really the first international global golfer and became the ambassador for international golf, very close to President Trump.
00:24:07.140And, of course, President Trump, I think, plays with Ernie Els and Ratif Goosen all the time, two of the best pros that come out in the last, I guess, 30 or 40 years.
00:24:15.920They were actually in the Oval today. So there was a little dust up. But I think they tried to I think they tried to sort it out.
00:24:22.860Also had Johan Rupert, one of the richest men in the world and owner of of many of the top brands, you know, aspirational brands in the world was also there.
00:24:34.700And so you had that. You had the Florida Gators and then you've had President Trump negotiating.
00:24:41.240So President Trump's in the middle of the deal, although Caroline Lovett just told there's no deal yet.
00:24:45.220Progress was made. And because I think there's a pretty deep, deep fissure here, I think it's going to get worse in the Senate.
00:24:53.240I just don't think the Senate people have been as vocal about it.
00:24:55.980But we know there's a bunch of no's in the Senate right now, given this question of the deficits, given the fact that this does make cuts.
00:25:04.660It kind of makes historic cuts in room and guard, particularly to mandatory spending.
00:25:08.380This is one of the things that's been at the top that Russ Vogt has tried to accomplish, that Russ Vogt's been working on.
00:25:15.180In doing that, there's maybe not as many cuts in the first couple of years.
00:25:20.200And that's why if you read the Zero Hedge article, if you read some of these other articles, you're not going from that six and a half percent of budget deficit to GDP down to three and a half percent.
00:25:30.280There's not an arc right now. Looks like it may be even flat, maybe even go up.
00:25:35.040Now, one of the reasons I think that is, is that the models they're using.
00:25:39.060I could be wrong, but I don't think I'm wrong.
00:25:41.360Do not incorporate all economic reality.
00:25:43.880Number one, I don't think they fully account for tariffs and the external revenue service and the cash is coming.
00:25:52.140One thing we do know, it's not going to be a trillion dollars of doge cuts and waste from abuse.
00:25:58.240It's going to be something, but it's not going to be that number.
00:26:01.040And it's not going to be a trillion dollars of tariffs of which was first proposed.
00:26:06.760That's not going to happen, but it's going to be something.
00:26:08.580It could be a hundred billion dollars, could be a couple hundred billion dollars.
00:26:10.780In this regard, every billion dollars helps.
00:26:15.280Remember, the rescission package that they won't put forward, Russia's hesitant to put forward because it's not sure that has Republican support, is only nine billion dollars.
00:26:24.380One, two billion for NPR and PBS and another seven, I think, for various other things that doge found to try to codify.
00:26:32.560And there's not enough support right now for that.
00:26:35.000My understanding is that's why it's not coming forward.
00:26:37.040Everybody's focused on the reconciliation, but the Senate passed the no tax on tips yesterday outside the reconciliation package, a hundred to nothing.
00:26:47.200You don't think economic populism is if people are getting on board for it when all of them, how many times they don't vote for post offices names at a hundred to nothing?
00:26:58.340Everybody wants to climb on to show working class people, hey, I'm with you.
00:27:01.920In the Democratic Party, particularly if you look at the last 48 hours, they're internally, you know, self-flagellation about there's no message, they don't know what they're doing.
00:27:20.480There's no real math about what their plan is, not just on taxes, but how to grow the economy for working class people and the middle class.
00:27:29.360There's nothing you got, as I say, Ro Khanna, but he's kind of a voice in the wilderness and he ain't doing primetime MSNBC as their ratings collapse because all it is is that they define themselves in their hatred of Trump.
00:27:45.920Well, Trump doesn't define himself in the Democratic Party.
00:27:49.200He defines himself by what's good for America.
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00:29:44.260So if you call in, tell them Bannon also.
00:30:36.260But I mean, there were some egregious things like the work requirements didn't start to 2029.
00:30:40.760They still had all these the Green New Deal stuff went went for a number of years.
00:30:46.180If you're going to make some cuts, all the cuts are going to have a little pain to them.
00:30:49.700Some are going to have if you don't make cuts now, some later are going to have real pain to them because you're going to run out of money.
00:30:57.200Just remember that it is virtually zero percent chance that any of the face amount of this debt will ever be paid off.
00:31:07.800You're going to scramble to pay the interest.
00:31:24.180Remember, that interest payment doesn't go for ships or planes or tanks or agriculture programs or health programs or any of the other programmatically what is in there.
00:31:44.100You're starting to get, you know, the lead story in Reuters is that we had a little bit of bond vigilantes today and selling a kind of a softness.
00:32:03.780And then I think they had a 10 year treasury auction later that morning, early afternoon, and it went OK.
00:32:12.180You saw yesterday with Japan and the out years, I think, selling 20s and 30s had noticed a real lack of demand because these bondholders know the bondholders are not into a lot of risk.
00:32:23.800That's where they're buying government securities and particularly buying U.S. government securities.
00:32:32.460They assume that they're not getting huge interest payments and not getting junk bond level or any kind of warrants or equity or anything like that, because the risk profile is very different.
00:32:43.040And you're the full faith and credit of the United States government.
00:33:27.800But she blamed it on the deep state of the Bank of England.
00:33:30.900Well, I'm not saying that certain members, maybe the Bank of England, weren't involved in talking to.
00:33:37.780Bondholders or whatever, but it was the bond market that kind of turfed her out.
00:33:40.720But one of the reasons that they were very concerned is that to get the returns in the pension fund,
00:33:46.140some of these pension fund managers to get the returns to meet their actuarial tables because people are living longer.
00:33:53.540There's a couple of three of these people got some pretty, maybe crazy voodoo like stuff in their portfolios that, you know, people don't think they have.
00:34:03.220And they didn't want a lot of exposure in that.
00:34:05.140They couldn't mess around, at least on the on the on the street, on the government bond side.
00:36:36.040Some of the principles are the same, but it's a different environment.
00:36:40.000President Reagan, we had a relatively pristine balance sheet.
00:36:43.240I mean, President Reagan took on a massive problem.
00:36:45.460A lot of you folks are around then, coming out of the Arab oil embargo and the Jimmy Carter situation and the massive inflation and coming off the, don't forget, Nixon coming off the gold standard.
00:37:05.680I'm just saying, when you look at the math, and President Reagan stepped in with Volcker.
00:37:10.380And, man, the political will they had and the courage they had to wring it out and to set up the foundation to take on the evil empire, that was courage.
00:37:21.080You go back and remember every night in the nightly news, the unemployment up.
00:38:23.020Scott Besson's been doing an amazing job over there with emergency measures, doing everything he can.
00:38:27.960But the moment that's lifted, they're going to sell the bonds, and you're going to be at 37 trillion or over 37 trillion.
00:38:35.680And this model shows, this model, the government's model, the Trump administration's model shows $4 trillion just to get us through the midterm elections,
00:38:48.260of which my math shows that we don't even get there.
00:38:52.020I could be wrong, but I don't think so.
00:38:58.740And President Trump, this is his, I keep saying, the 10th anniversary of him coming down the escalator is a couple weeks from now, June 15th.
00:39:08.020I think it's Father's Day, the day after the big military parade, flag day and his birthday.
00:39:18.660All of that, everything we've gone through, all of it is a preamble to now.
00:39:25.640The permanent part of his legacy, the permanent part, not the heroics of coming back and everything to do and all we've been through and all he's been through.
00:39:35.100All this movement's been through and the country is a preamble to, I say, the next couple hundred days.
00:39:41.540The sorting out of the Connecticut part of the Third World War, the challenge, the constitutional crisis of the judicial revolt against his being commander in chief and essentially sealing the border, stopping the invasion and sending the 13 million invaders out of here.
00:39:55.740And the centerpiece, which is redoing the entire commercial relationships of the world as it relates to the United States and America first economic policy and putting citizens first for the first time ever.
00:40:10.360And the economic model that's based upon and how you finance it, all of that, because that's what that's what the big, beautiful bill is when you get down to the basics.
00:40:23.020This will all be done one way or the other by, I don't know, let's pick the by the time the Supreme Court returns in October, the first week of October.
00:40:35.600Because you're going to have to have some resolution there.
00:40:38.040Where the kinetic part of the Third World War, you will either have some sort of laying down the guns in Ukraine, in the Middle East and some sort of workout with Persia, or you're going to be a world of fire.
00:40:51.640And this bill, I think, worst case jointly with the Senate.
00:40:56.300And then remember, if the Senate passes their thing, then you've got to have a conference come up with a joint bill.
00:41:02.240Well, you know, the debt ceiling has got to be dealt with in August.
00:41:05.400So you vote in August, September, something like that.
00:41:08.640By the time that all gets hammered out.
00:41:11.140So those three, what I call the converging crises.
00:42:38.700Heck, and everything else he's doing, world peace and everything.
00:42:42.780Heck, he's got the Freedom Caucus up there and they're negotiating this afternoon while he's going in and out to award the national champions.
00:43:17.900I've really, we put together a, Ian, was it, Yakilov from Yakilov from Epoch Times, one of my favorite.
00:43:30.460The great show and a great investigative reporter with Liz Yure and Ben Harnwell to really go through and break down some horrific situations in the world that will shock you.
00:45:19.080Okay, let's make sure that everybody, Grace, I want everybody to read the tepid demand for U.S.
00:45:24.300Treasury auction shows investor jitters about tax bill deficit.
00:45:27.280Everybody just read it and make sure that you're up to speed because tonight and tomorrow we're going to try to cover as much of this life as possible.
00:45:33.200Also, the 14th is the 250th anniversary of the military.
00:46:50.700The Birch Gold and War Room, what we try to do is to basically flood the zone with information so that you can work it through in your own mind and get your own mental map because that's what you need.
00:47:02.400You can't have somebody tell you this.
00:47:03.960And, hey, you're one of those people who say, oh, if they mention math, my palms start to sweat.
00:48:43.180Well, everybody, you know, lawfare was started back in January of 2021.
00:48:47.460It hadn't been done in our country since the late 1700s, and over 75 people and platforms were sued by these companies or their affiliates, the voting machine companies.
00:49:20.100MyPillow, my employees, my employee-owned company, they've had to suffer for four and a half years, but we made it this far.
00:49:28.860Everybody, every single company, I mean, every single person or platform up to now has settled with them because their insurance companies say, oh, we're going to settle.
00:49:40.780We're not going to put all this money to fight.
00:49:43.140Or they're afraid to be put out of business like they're trying to do to MyPillow.
00:50:04.240All of you at the War Room Posse, you guys supporting MyPillow, all of us have worked too hard, thousands of people, hundreds of thousands of people, to secure our elections.
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