Episode 4567： Mainstream Bangs The War Drum
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Summary
In this episode, CNN's Peter Bergen and James Stavridis discuss the growing tensions between the United States and Iran over Iran's nuclear program and its leaders. They talk about the pros and cons of each option, and what the White House should do next.
Transcript
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went on the air. He said, quote, we know exactly where the so-called supreme leader is hiding.
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He is an easy target, but is safe there. We are not going to take him out, kill, at least not for
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now. But we don't want missile shot at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.
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You part ways with the president on that issue. You think he should be taken out?
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Well, I'm going to, I trust the president's judgment. Very much I trust his judgment.
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And I think for now is the term the Ayatollah should understand in Trump world is ever changing.
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So what is the president trying to do? He's letting the Ayatollah know if you attack American interests,
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that's the end of you and your regime. What am I trying to do? I'm trying to make the case
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that ending Iran's nuclear ambitions is not only good for Israel, it's good for us.
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And we're, they're the weakest they've been since 1979. This region since 1979 has been a,
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this regime has been repressing their people, trying to destroy Israel and have American blood
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on their hands. I hope it's eliminated. I would like to see this regime fall, but I'm going to leave
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it up to the president as to what to do and when to do it. But I do know this, if we don't take out
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their nuclear program now, we'll all regret it. We're very close. Be all in, Mr. President,
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in helping Israel finish the job. And let's see where we're at after we neutralize their nuclear
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program. They're in disarray and they're very dangerous. I don't want to underestimate the danger
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of being involved in these operations. But the danger of Iran having a nuclear weapon or surviving
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as a state sponsor of terrorism is far greater than the danger of trying to end the threat. So that's
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the decision President Trump has to make. And I think he's the right guy at the right time to make
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that decision. But I'm hoping the sun is setting not only on their nuclear program, but the regime
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itself. Sooner they leave the world stage, the better the world will be. We can have true peace
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in the Mideast only if the regime falls, in my view. President Trump emerging out of the White House's
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Situation Room after over an hour of deliberations with his national security team as he's weighing
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how to respond to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
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Sources telling CNN that the president is warming to the idea of using American military assets to
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strike Iranian nuclear facilities. So joining me now is someone who has spent quite a bit of time
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in that very room with our presidents. CNN senior military analyst Admiral James Stavridis joins us
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now. Admiral, I'm so grateful to have you here. And this obviously is a foreign policy challenge that
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has been on the table for decades, really. What would you be advising the president to do given
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the facts as we, as members of the public, not privy to classified information, understand them to be
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right now? Let's go back to the Situation Room itself. What the president deserves in this Situation Room
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is the best advice. Ultimately, he's going to make the decision. We elected him to make those kind of
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truly hard calls. But he needs unfettered, unvarnished, take the bark off kind of advice from his cabinet.
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I hope he's receiving that. I think he's probably got three broad courses of action here, Casey. One is
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let the Israelis continue to pound away. Another one is put pressure on the Iranians by moving forces
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into the region, sort of set the table for strikes, but then use that leverage to get back to a
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negotiation. That would be option two. And then option three, of course, would be to conduct a strike.
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Your reporting indicates he's leaning toward option three. I just hope he's getting all of the advice
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both the pros and the cons of each of those three courses of action. Arabia would like to see the
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theocracy gone. I know the Emirates would and many other Arab states as well. But then there's the
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question of what happens if there is a power vacuum there. We saw all too well what happened in Iraq.
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We saw what happened in Afghanistan when the Taliban took over in literally a matter of hours. You've got
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competing factions as well who would vie to take over Iran. On the one side, you've got the crown
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prince, Reza Pahlavi, who would like to go in as an interim leader. On the other side of that fence,
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you've got the NCRI, the National Council for Resistance in Iran, which used to be the MEK,
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which a lot of people in Iran say would be worse than the Ayatollah. So what steps into the vacuum
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if the regime falls? Well, I think what will happen is the Iranian people will know freedom for the
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first time since 1979. You know, people probably asked that about Hitler in the 30s. What would
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happen in Germany if we took him out in the mid-30s? Well, I wish we had, because we know what happened
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when they let him stay in power. And here's what I can say. Taking the Ayatollah's regime down is a good
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thing, not a bad thing. And I'm willing to risk what happens next, because I know what's going to happen
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if they stay in power. But, sir, can you guarantee that? Can President Trump in any form? I mean,
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can you make the commitment that this would not lead to a longer war? I can guarantee you that if
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the Ayatollah gets a nuclear weapon, he will use it. I believe that with all my heart and soul.
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So the men and women who serve, they're the ones going, not people answering a poll. And if you ask
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them, would you be willing to risk your life to stop the Ayatollah from having a nuclear weapon?
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All of them would say yes, because it makes their country, our country, safer.
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So we live in a world where you've got to confront problems. You want to avoid World War III? Learn
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the lessons from World War II. People in World War II appeased Hitler to the point that it got so
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much out of hand. We had a world war and 60 million people got killed. So we live in a world where you
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pay now or you pay later. Let's stop this threat before he gets a nuclear weapon. Let's end this reign of
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terror. Let's do it now. It's not going to take 20 months. But I can't guarantee you your freedom
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and your safety unless we're willing to fight for it. I can guarantee you this. If we don't fight
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This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray for our enemies, because we're going medieval on
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these people. Here's the time I got a free shot at all these networks lying about the people. The
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people have had a belly full of it. I know you don't like hearing that. I know you try to do
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everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it. It's going to happen.
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And where do people like that go to share the big line? MAGA Media. I wish in my soul, I wish
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that any of these people had a conscience. Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose?
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If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved.
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Tuesday, 17 June, Year of the Lord, 2025. Obviously, a very action-packed afternoon,
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and we're packed this afternoon. We had a show lined up. We were going to talk about a lot of
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finance and the good things that are coming out of President Trump's administration economically.
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We've got a couple of Treasury officials from ahead of the World Bank, Philip Patrick, all that.
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We're going to get that in, but we've obviously got to talk about what happened to the National
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Security Council today. President Trump came back from Calgary. I think partially he was bored. Number
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two, he had to get back to deal with the situation at hand. They did go through alternatives. It's
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pretty obvious at least one alternative is to consider at least some sort of strike because
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they're pre-positioning massive assets in the region, both naval assets and air assets,
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both support logistics assets and also combat aircraft. That has to be viewed as at least
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negotiating leverage if President Trump is to try to force the hand, which looks like it's either
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between a full capitulation on the nuclear program or maybe even regime change as this seems to be
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changing every minute. Let's go to Jack Posobiec. Jack, you're going to be on Tim Pool tonight. Is that
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correct? People can see you on the Tim Pool show? That's right, Steve. And to the War Room Posse, yes,
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I'll be on Tim Pool in a couple hours tonight. So we'll be covering all of this live. We'll be
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taking super chats. We'll be doing all of it right there. We're tracking all of this in real time as
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well. So, Jack, obviously, in the range of alternatives, President Trump's looked at his
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current position is, hey, they cannot, I mean, his constant position is they cannot have a nuclear
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weapon. I've told him they can't have a nuclear weapon. He tried to negotiate. They kind of try
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to tap him along. He wasn't prepared to be tapped along. The Israelis did what they did. And now we are
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where we are. Looks like the range of alternatives to date, Jack, clearly has at least, I mean, you can
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just tell from the outside action. They haven't released any statement, but clearly a lot of assets
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are being moved around. We had Admiral Stavridis there in the cold open saying that's to give him
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a range of alternatives. Admiral Stavridis is correct. This is what he's trying to do is have
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options to have what we call optionality. Jack, give us your assessment of the options you think
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are out there. Well, Steve, I think there are a number of options. Obviously, these range from the
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United States military being ordered to take runs at the political leadership or even the energy or
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infrastructure of Iran, all of which are capable, all of which are reachable from our air bases
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throughout the Gulf, including Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. There's stealth. There's multi-role
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fighters there, F-35s, F-16s, F-22s. There's also the bombers, the B-52s down at Diego Garcia. And,
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of course, there's been a lot of talk about the United States coming in and having the weaponry
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and the firepower to take out this underground base over at Fordow, which is built for this
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purpose because Israel does not have the bunker-busting bombs or the mops, these GBUs, these
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gravity bombs, which the Israelis do not have, but the United States certainly does. This is why they were
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built for this purpose. And, of course, it was also what the bomb was designed to do. This is part of
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the escalatory ladder and the tit-for-tat that we've seen in the distracting world,
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that hardening world that the Iranians in some of these places. This is why Iran has their
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Shahad drones underground, for example, and all these other various facilities.
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And so these options are all available to the United States. There's also a range of options from
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intelligent sharing to asymmetric warfare. So intelligent sharing, shutting down electronics,
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going after their communications, going after their media. There's also a huge range that can
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be done there as well. And it really all remains to President Trump what he wants to order happen
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here. We're waiting to hear that readout from the National Security Council meeting, which was told
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ended just a little while ago at the White House.
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Jack, walk people through the gravity bomb, exactly the mechanism. How does it actually work? It's kind of
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unique. And this is why people are saying, well, maybe you put it on a, you know, a C-4, you put
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it on a big one of our big transport aircraft and have the Israelis push it out the back, or you put it
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on an Israeli aircraft. Walk me through, what do we have here and why the size of ours are much bigger
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Yes, yes. Russia has been much larger. Russia has been using a version of this technology
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in, in Ukraine for quite some time now. And essentially what, what the Russians are using
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for a smaller version of it is it, what it does is it turns your, it turns your, you've used the
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parlance, you turned your dumb bombs into smart bombs because you're up, what you're doing is
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you're able to upgrade them to a point where they have a rudimentary type of guidance, which is far
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more, far superior to simply just dropping it away, you know, bombs away as, as, as we know. And so
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they're carrying that, you know, a guidance system, they're monitored, it's controlled
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externally, uh, guided bomb, you know, depending on the given weight, that's how much explosive
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that it has on it has radio. And this, this technology has been around for quite some time,
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but it's really been plugged up through world war II. And then even after throughout the cold
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war where they've been using, it's only been in the Gulf war, the Ukraine war and on that we've
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seen them really use now. And so this is, it's, it's sort of in, in the way that I think of
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it is, it, is it precision guided munitions? It is, uh, it is not quite precision guided
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munitions, but it is a, it is a guided bomb is the best way to think about it.
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Um, the difference between, uh, taking out the nuclear program and making sure they have no
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capacity to refine material and also, uh, even maybe some of the ballistic missile technology
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they need versus regime change. Give me a minute on that before we go to break.
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Well, Steve, this, this could be everything. So taking out the president Trump has been very
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clear that he is against Iran's nuclear weapons program, but Iran's regime depends on far more
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than just that program. They have the IRGC, they have the Iranian army they've got on. And of course,
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all of the oil pipelines and the deals that they have with the Chinese communist party. That's
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really where that power relies upon. Uh, you take out the regime and that's going to open up a whole
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hornet's death, possibly civil war. This is bigger than Iraq, bigger than Afghanistan,
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bigger than Syria, bigger than Libya. The, uh, shocking thing though, I think for a military
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point of view is that given all their bluster, uh, the, uh, Israelis did take complete air supremacy,
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uh, air superiority first and air supremacy. So far, it doesn't seem like there's any, you know,
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combat aircraft up or the combat aircraft gets up. Their air defenses systems got destroyed about 90
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days ago, but right now we don't, I think in president Trump, of course, he used the royal
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we, we, we have control of the airspace over Tehran, right? That's never really a good sign.
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All of a sudden you're, you're, you're in it. I tell you what, Jack, can you hang on a minute?
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I know you're hanging out, going out to Tim pool. We're taking a short commercial break. Uh, Jack,
00:14:27.200
uh, Pasopik is with us. We're going to have, uh, Joe LaVonia on, uh, special counsel to the
00:14:33.560
secretary of treasury, big breaking news at a treasury day about the impact of president
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at 989898 and do it today. Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon.
00:16:33.600
Welcome back. Joe LaVornier is going to join us from the White House, special assistant or
00:16:37.880
special counsel to Secretary of Treasury. I want to make sure because I'm going to have some economic
00:16:43.700
guys on here next. Jack Posobiec talking about the economy, talking about, you know, I got a guy
00:16:50.820
from, you know, the former head of the World Bank and one of the undersecretaries under President
00:16:54.120
Trump in the first term. Philip Patrick is going to join us. Obviously, gold is kind of on fire now.
00:17:00.520
But also there are many economics, not just geopolitical economic. Iran is one of the most
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important oil and gas producers in the world. They provide, I think, Jack, you would agree,
00:17:14.920
the Chinese Communist Party anywhere between 1.5 and 2.5 million barrels per day, either sold
00:17:21.040
directly or through the black market. They're the principal provider to the CCP of energy. Those oil
00:17:27.020
fields and there's discussion of the oil fields may come into play. I think Qatar and other nations
00:17:31.560
around the world own, I think, the oil fields that kind of go in Bajra. There's part of it's in Iraq,
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part of it's in Iran. Of course, that part down by Bajra, since it's tons of Shiite Muslims ever
00:17:43.260
since the Iraq war, they kind of claim it for their own. How big a deal is the geoeconomics here of
00:17:49.500
the situation in Iran? Well, Steve, the idea of the geoeconomics is key. And, you know,
00:17:57.220
we say on Human Events daily all the time that when it comes to geopolitics, it's sort of like,
00:18:02.540
you know, the French have a phrase, cherché la femme, you know, whenever you're trying to figure
00:18:05.580
out something, look for the woman. Well, in geopolitics, we say cherché la petrol, look for
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the petrol, look for the oil. And so in this, right, cherché la petrol, you don't steal that from me,
00:18:17.660
Ben, and that's all me. I'm going to do it as an homage. I'm going to do it as an homage to you.
00:18:23.800
All right. With credit. So good. Obviously, you know, that's one of the fastest ways that could
00:18:30.540
lead to this regime change, civil war kind of breakout that we're talking about. But if you
00:18:34.900
want to talk about the global oil market impact of a massive, sudden supply shock, we're talking
00:18:40.980
immediate, you know, depending on the broader market conditions, you're talking $100 a barrel oil,
00:18:46.300
$150 a barrel of futures market, you're going to get immediate reaction, huge volatility, stocks,
00:18:53.260
commodities. And you know what? You're not sure what's going to happen, what OPEC decides to do.
00:18:57.560
Does OPEC want to cut? Does OPEC want to keep flooding the system? The U.S., the EU, there's
00:19:02.720
going to be a lot of pressure then to release oil from strategic reserves. Of course, Trump's been
00:19:06.720
trying to fill, by the way, our strategic oil reserve. But here we are in, you know, summer just
00:19:11.720
started. And you might be seeing $6 a barrel oil. Or get our guys or get our guys ripping and
00:19:18.440
even pumping more. Jack, social media, you're putting up great stuff all the time. You're going
00:19:23.400
to Tim Pool. You're on the Tim Pool Show tonight. What is that? Does that start at eight o'clock
00:19:27.740
Eastern Daylight Time, the Tim Pool Show? So that'll start at eight. So once you're done watching all
00:19:32.780
your evening war room, you have your dinner and then boom, you lock in with Tim Cast 8 p.m. Eastern.
00:19:37.060
Hang on. I'm going to try to get you from Tim's place at seven when you get out there. So if we
00:19:42.980
get an update, we'll come right to you. Okay. Thank you, brother. Thank you. The great Jack
00:19:47.780
Posobiec. I want to go now to the White House. Joe LaVornier, special counsel to the Secretary of
00:19:54.960
Treasury. Sir, today, Scott Besson had an interview. They put up an interview with Miranda Devine. He
00:20:02.620
talked about the increase in blue collar wages. It's awesome analysis you've done. Can you walk
00:20:06.920
us through exactly? Give us the receipts. Give us the backup. What's actually happening? And more
00:20:11.960
importantly, why is it happening? Sure. So Steve, if you look at President Trump, the first term and
00:20:19.820
second term, what we looked at when I worked for President Trump in the first term is what we
00:20:25.360
call blue collar wages, which are non-supervisory production workers. These aren't people that are
00:20:30.560
part of the professional managerial class. It's not Wall Street. It's Main Street. It's the backbone of
00:20:35.760
Main Street. And what we've noticed in this first five months of this Trump administration is that
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the annualized increase in real blue collar wages is almost 2%. The next closest growth we had of that
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magnitude in the first five months of the administration was Trump 1.0. So it's remarkable
00:20:53.780
the wage gains he has. And that's a function really of a very pro-growth supply side led set of
00:20:59.780
policies where food and energy costs have been trending down significantly from where they were. And as
00:21:04.440
Secretary Besson has said, as there are fewer illegal workers that are artificially depressing
00:21:09.260
wages, keeping nominal wages high. So you have a double whammy of falling inflation. The inflation
00:21:14.620
numbers have been absolutely stellar. At the same time, nominal wages have been strong. So your real
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wages are expanding, increasing purchasing power for the everyday worker.
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I want to go back because we did this before in the tax cut in 17 and it came to fruition in 18 and
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really in 19. I think it was the fall of 19. You had the tremendous gains in blue collar versus white
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collar, non-college graduate versus college graduates. Is that essentially the same thing here? We haven't
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got to the extension of those tax cuts. It's still there. But is that what's going on? Is it anything
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about the investment in jobs coming back? I know a big part of this has got to be immigration. What
00:21:54.140
do you think's actually the big drivers here in back of this?
00:21:58.040
So you're correct. If you look at the big effects, obviously, with TICCHA was in 18 and 19.
00:22:05.080
If just to put it in broader sense, from 17 to 19, those first three Trump years,
00:22:10.180
real median household income was up almost $8,000, more than double what it had been in the prior 16
00:22:16.140
years of both Republican and Democrat administrations. In the one big, beautiful bill,
00:22:21.060
the tax expensing, the likelihood that we get 100% expensing on CapEx back to President Trump
00:22:28.780
Inauguration Day, combined with the deduction of plant equipment, factories, that is hugely supply
00:22:35.380
side generative. And what that means, Steve, is that you're going to get strong productivity growth
00:22:40.120
because you've got capital deepening. You're giving workers more tools to produce the goods and
00:22:44.040
services that people want. If you have higher productivity, you have higher living standards,
00:22:48.080
you have higher wages. So this bill, once it passes, will codify and further implement what
00:22:54.760
was built off of Trump 1.0. And I'm optimistic we'll get faster growth, we'll grow deficits so
00:23:00.520
that they'll fall relative to GDP, and most importantly, Main Street will thrive. I mean,
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that's the way the theory is supposed to work. It's the way it worked in Trump 1.0. And by all
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indications, we're off to a great start so far in 25. Great start. And this shows why the immigration
00:23:15.620
policy, sealing the border and the mass deportations, the beginning of that, it has all worked out.
00:23:20.120
And remember, President Trump's focus, and this comes, Malpass was in the first administration,
00:23:25.000
Scott Bessett now is Secretary of Treasury, Joe LaVornia, everybody's focused on the working
00:23:29.980
class, the middle class for Main Street and a supply side tax cut, and also to make sure that
00:23:34.460
everything we can do to increase productivity is there, as Dave Brett is often there warning us.
00:23:40.180
Joe, real quickly, what are you doing? You're one of the great gets inside Treasury. You've got
00:23:44.540
an incredible team over there. What is your title, and what are you doing for the Secretary every day?
00:23:51.760
Well, this is my 10th day. So I come from Wall Street, and I had the pleasure of getting to meet
00:23:59.040
the Secretary a little bit in my prior private life. I'm helping out in anything they really want
00:24:04.380
me to do, Steve, all things sort of macroeconomics and policy related. And it's been 10 days, but it's
00:24:11.400
been fun. And I'm hoping to get to come on with you again, and I'll have even better news to report
00:24:16.480
the next time I'm on. Well, it's pretty good news today, Joe. Thank you so much. Joe, do you have
00:24:21.060
social media? Where do people go to find out more about your work and what you put this up?
00:24:26.220
Yeah. On my private role, it was at Lavornianomics. We'll see if we can make it an official
00:24:33.000
government role. But you'll probably see me a little bit more maybe on TV and radio than
00:24:37.520
social media. But we've got to fine-tune that. Thank you, brother. Look forward to get all this
00:24:43.580
up on social media. Same here. Joe Lavornier. Thank you. Over there, one of the team that Scott
00:24:48.540
Besson's pulling together, really good news. So, Malpass, you've got some observations about the Fed,
00:24:55.440
as you often do. David, you were one of the big guns for President Trump in the first term over
00:25:00.760
Treasury. Then you hit the World Bank. First off, just how concerned are you about particularly as
00:25:06.740
this thing starts to spread in Iran and whatever can happen, sabotage? They had a thing today that
00:25:13.060
there was a vessel stuck in the mouth of the Straits of Hormuz. And I can tell you, having sailed in and
00:25:18.400
out of there on a destroyer, it's not that big. How concerned are you for global economics of what's
00:25:24.660
going on in Persia right now? Of course, concerned. But the U.S. is powerful. And President Trump has
00:25:30.940
been really clear that's peace through strength. And also, they can't have a nuclear weapon.
00:25:35.880
So there are exit, you know, there's ways, exit ramps that they can use. And if not,
00:25:42.400
then I think there is power to control the situation. I think we should really make a
00:25:48.300
distinction between that, meaning necessary steps to control bad outcomes, that's peace through
00:25:58.520
strength, and then turn to allowing a free market economy in the U.S. to really expand. And that—so,
00:26:06.340
in my mind, there's kind of a connection, there is a connection—to the Trump plan. The program is to
00:26:14.580
have the economy be really strong so that we have enough strength in the U.S., especially, but globally,
00:26:22.220
to really see peace break out. And he's been clear.
00:26:27.720
David, the president's been pretty critical of Powell over at the Fed. The Wall Street Journal's got a
00:26:33.200
piece. What is your take? You're somebody the president would always turn to and ask about
00:26:38.100
these situations. What do you think about the Fed and interest rates? Are they ahead of the curve or
00:26:42.660
behind the curve, sir? They're behind the curve, and they're often behind the curve. And we go from
00:26:48.120
inflation to deflation because they're driving through the rearview mirror. Their models are really
00:26:54.680
antiquated. These are 40-, 50-year-old models that basically say that the U.S. economy can't grow too
00:27:01.960
faster. It'll be inflationary. And that's just wrong. There's productivity growth. You just heard
00:27:07.240
Joe Livornia talking about that as the major strategy. If we can get manufacturing going in the
00:27:14.980
U.S. and small businesses really cranking, then it's not going to be an inflationary economy. It's going
00:27:23.020
to be a growth economy. So that's within reach. There is this clear path. The data is clear that
00:27:31.940
there's room for the Fed to cut. That's the retail sales that were negative today. The job growth in
00:27:37.940
May in the household survey was weak. We've got the prime rate at 7%. What are you going to do with
00:27:44.720
that? And why is that where the U.S. is sitting? So I think if the Fed is clear, and Trump has been,
00:27:52.420
that we defend the dollar, we have the dollar as the reserve currency. If the world believes that,
00:27:57.480
they'll be the path to our door in terms of buying U.S. debt, dollar-denominated debt,
00:28:05.840
and driving down interest rates. I think that's within reach. Hang on for one second,
00:28:11.060
because I want to go back over this, and I've got a couple other questions.
00:28:13.920
Philip Patrick from Birch Gold is also going to join us. Got David Malpass from ahead of the World
00:28:19.120
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So, Brother Malpass, and by the way, David was undersecretary for International, one of the most
00:30:01.100
important jobs in the Treasury Department for President Trump in the first term and then head
00:30:05.460
of the World Bank, put there by President Trump. David, when you just said the models that the Fed
00:30:11.580
uses, because President Trump, let's be blunt, he's not particularly happy with Lewis Powell. He's
00:30:16.380
kind of all over the Fed. He keeps saying they're missing the window here. When you say the models
00:30:21.260
are 40 years old and clunky, doesn't the Fed Reserve, I don't know, have like 8,000 people over
00:30:25.640
there? It's a huge organization, is it not? That's right. Maybe 700, I don't know, PhDs,
00:30:32.540
dumb and dumber. But the Phillips curve is the idea that there's somehow a tradeoff between
00:30:40.400
unemployment and inflation, and you have to have higher one to get lower the other. And that is,
00:30:46.080
you know, so the Fed is constantly talking about its mandate, that it's supposed to have price
00:30:51.240
stability and full employment, and somehow those are in opposition. They work totally together. If
00:30:58.140
you have price stability, you'll have more jobs in the economy. That's what Trump is talking about.
00:31:04.440
That's what Scott Besson is talking about today, even, of how do you get real wages up if the Fed is
00:31:14.320
always leaning against it? This is because, you know, if you think about the last 40 years, there's
00:31:21.340
been innovation everywhere, except at the Fed. They're still talking about monetarism, which is
00:31:26.880
ages old. And they're not. And remember, the Fed not only sets interest rates, but they also regulate
00:31:34.080
banks, and they do it poorly because they fail and the small businesses can't get credit. And
00:31:40.620
the Fed has this giant balance sheet that's been horribly managed. They bought $9 trillion of U.S.
00:31:49.420
government bonds at the very trough when yields were the lowest. So they've got this unrealized loss
00:31:55.960
on their books of maybe a trillion dollars. So it's just mistakes all around, old models.
00:32:03.880
The last thing you said about us being the prime reserve currency, we actually are very focused
00:32:08.320
on the real reset. We've done a whole special of this. We've got a whole thing we've done over the
00:32:15.840
last couple of years called the end of the dollar empire. We put it out in installments. We got the
00:32:20.040
seventh installment about the real reset. Walk me through what you said in the last minute
00:32:23.640
of the previous segment about making sure that there's demand for dollar-denominated bonds and
00:32:29.700
that we remain the prime reserve currency, sir. Even today, you saw Europe saying they want to
00:32:36.100
have more room for the euro on people's shelf space. Well, that is not really the way to have the world
00:32:43.640
be safe. You need the dollar to be the backbone. And that's also important for crypto and digitalization
00:32:49.780
of the world economy. If you look at stablecoins, they need to be in U.S. dollars and regulated
00:32:57.840
by the U.S., not by some island. I don't know your view on that, Stephen. People can have different
00:33:04.360
views. But I really think that we can allow and permit this innovation that is the core of the U.S.
00:33:13.320
economy. All that has to happen is Treasury and the Fed say they plan to have the dollar be the core of
00:33:20.760
the global economy for decades and decades. That would bring down interest rates right there if
00:33:26.460
they would say it. But the Ph.D. economists all think that the currency should just float around
00:33:31.840
with no anchor at all. I think that can be fixed pretty easily.
00:33:35.440
David Malpass, we hope to have you on here a lot. Where do people get you on social media? Where
00:33:43.600
do they go? On Twitter or at David R. Malpass. Thanks, Steve. Brother, thank you. Great show.
00:33:52.040
Thank you for coming on. Look forward to having you back. I think one of the things we're going to do
00:33:56.960
is this clearly this conflict between Israel and Iran. And we're picking up. Did CNN just report
00:34:04.200
that? OK, maybe that was a false thing. I don't know. OK, Christy Noem is Christy Noem. We'll get
00:34:11.000
more of that. But Secretary of Homeland Security has been taken, I think, to a local Washington
00:34:15.280
hospital and ambulance. We don't know anything more than that. As soon as we know more, we will report
00:34:20.000
it. Philip Patrick, one of my favorite people, you had Malpass right there saying what we needed to do
00:34:26.620
to make sure that we remain the prime reserve currency. Our favorite, as you know, the Financial
00:34:36.460
Times of London had this article, right, about gold. If Denver could put it up, I want to make sure it's
00:34:43.620
up. Got Philip Patrick on it. It starts with one of my favorite quotes, Philip. And the headline's
00:34:49.540
amazing. As you know, Philip, we've been working together for four years now or four years. And we
00:34:54.620
talked about doing the end of the dollar empire to make sure people understood the importance of the
00:34:59.740
dollar as the prime reserve currency and how that was so important. And then what backed that up.
00:35:06.020
Now, the Financial Times of London, they does this big story, how gold became the world's refuge from
00:35:13.140
uncertainty, which is kind of the thesis that we've been talking about for four years. The subheadline,
00:35:18.840
in an era where core assumptions about the global economy are being questioned, gold has once more
00:35:24.240
become an anchor, especially for central banks, as you've reported for four years here. But the lead
00:35:30.040
paragraph, though, talks about one of my favorite quotes is by is by John Maynard Keynes, who was the
00:35:37.680
economist that really after the war, after World War One, they all kind of, you know, went into Keynesianism,
00:35:43.960
which hadn't been really grasped before, which meant bigger governments, bigger government
00:35:48.600
stimulus, which we're living through that two and a half trillion dollar, two trillion dollar
00:35:52.280
deficit. You see, here we say that is a Keynesian stimulus to an economy. And Keynes called gold a
00:36:00.580
barbarous relic of an ancient world, sir. So break down the Financial Times and really the Financial
00:36:09.080
Times coming to understand what we've been kind of laying out for this audience for four years, sir.
00:36:15.800
Yeah, look, I mean, as you say, we've been talking about this for a long time. First of all, we can,
00:36:20.860
I think, clearly show that John Maynard Keynes was was incorrect, calling gold a barbarous relic,
00:36:27.300
seeing gold this century outperform almost every other asset class. I think it's very clear. But
00:36:32.660
I thought a very good article, it was summarizing a lot of what we've talked about over,
00:36:37.960
as you said, the last few years. And that is slowly we are disincentivizing the world to hold
00:36:45.720
our dollars. Right. After 1946, what incentivized the world to use dollars was redeemability. Right.
00:36:52.240
It was the only currency in the world that, you know, central banks could hand into the Treasury
00:36:56.800
Department and get gold back in return. Following 71, it was the petrodollar agreement. Right. The world
00:37:03.500
had to use dollars to buy oil. Forty percent of the world's oil supply came from OPEC. It guaranteed
00:37:09.020
this demand. Right. Since then, it's really been stability. Right. The dollar, as far as currencies go,
00:37:15.300
has been the most stable. All of that being said, the world has been incentivized to hold our US dollar.
00:37:22.720
Well, what have we seen really since the Biden administration? Right. We've seen devaluation of
00:37:28.400
currency. We've seen weaponization of our currency. Central banks around the world are looking at
00:37:34.020
dollars now more as a liability than as an asset. Even Trump's policies. Listen, Trump's been trying
00:37:40.720
to thread the needle. Things like tariffs. They tell nations around the world, look, we understand why
00:37:46.760
he implemented them. We have to boost domestic manufacturing. But tariffs have negative impacts
00:37:52.780
as well. They force countries to diversify away from our currency. Even the big, beautiful bill.
00:37:59.400
Right. Trump was elected with a mandate. I said to you before, I'm torn on this. Right. You know,
00:38:04.700
he was elected with a clear mandate to shore up the borders. This stuff is expensive, but it comes
00:38:10.620
with consequences. Right. That is an explosion in deficits. Right. The dollar, again, less attractive
00:38:16.900
to foreign investors. What about the revenge tax within the big, beautiful bill? Right. The financial
00:38:22.440
times referent that specifically. I understand why Trump has it in there. Right. It's one more weapon
00:38:28.620
that Trump can use to balance global trade. But I also understand that as a foreign investor. Right.
00:38:34.720
That's a concerning thing for me. So my concern now is not that we lose global reserve currency status,
00:38:41.360
but that we move into a more multipolar world. Right. Other currencies being used, demand for the dollar
00:38:47.920
waning longer term, longer term, longer term, that can put our position as global reserve currency under
00:38:53.600
threat. So, you know, we've been talking about this for a long time. I think Biden put President
00:38:58.840
Trump into a corner. We're trying to fight our way out. But it's a very, very tough battle.
00:39:05.740
What's the hardest thing he has to do? Because I'm going to expand the conversation and talk about
00:39:10.100
this current war that's going on, and particularly if it expands. But as you sit here today with
00:39:15.200
all the policy levers, President Trump is trying to do, and you just heard Joe LaVarnia from Treasury
00:39:21.080
talk about some good news we're hearing at the get go. Right. Particularly about blue collar wages.
00:39:25.740
What is the hardest thing you think President Trump and Besant have to do to thread the needle?
00:39:33.220
It's it's such a very tough question. If I had the answer to that, I may be sitting next to them.
00:39:40.080
Hold it. We had the answer. Philip, Patrick and Steve, I wouldn't be doing this. Philip wouldn't
00:39:45.640
be there. We'd have the we'd have the Patrick Bannon hedge fund.
00:39:50.160
There's no there's no question about it. Look, I think it's all about creating incentives. And this
00:39:55.380
is this is where politics and economics cross. If you ask me as an economist what we have to do,
00:40:01.520
the answer is not politically viable. Right. What we have to do really is curb spending.
00:40:08.600
We have to sort of generate more revenue. We've got to tighten the belt buckle. Ultimately,
00:40:13.380
that's the way to do it. President Trump's strategy is a riskier one. Right. And that is to grow the
00:40:18.660
economy and to do it at a rapid rate faster than debt. But I don't envy President Trump's position.
00:40:24.880
I've said before, if I left with his legacy in 2020, I wouldn't be back again because this is a
00:40:30.460
much more difficult fight he has in front of him. But he's got to balance things in a way that that
00:40:36.440
I think is going to be difficult to do. But he's got to incentivize. Listen, I thought the trade deal
00:40:41.340
he struck with the United Kingdom was genius. Right. That was a way to sort of work China out of
00:40:46.900
crucial supply chains while sort of maintaining good relationships with our European counterparts.
00:40:52.600
I think that should be the blueprint for any future trade deals. So it's a tough one. I think
00:41:00.020
curving deficit spending is going to be key. Trying to get a handle on the debt is going to be key and
00:41:04.080
growing the economy is going to be key. But we're in a very tough position. Look, it wouldn't surprise
00:41:09.460
me. And you and I have said this for a long time. 20 years from now, people take an economics course.
00:41:14.320
There's going to be discussions about the 60 year experiment from 1970 to 2030 with a global free
00:41:21.660
floating unbacked currencies and how it failed. Right. And I think ultimately that is the biggest
00:41:27.620
problem. This is how every empire in history has collapsed. And we're heading down that path.
00:41:34.240
Let's go back to that because the Financial Times talks about that, too, and talking about Keynes,
00:41:38.720
that there was a system in place really from the post-war period, given the devastation. Remember,
00:41:44.300
they didn't have a system in place really, you know, from World War I to the Second World War.
00:41:50.360
And it was that people forget it wasn't just World War I that caused World War II.
00:41:57.620
Keynes came to prominence because he wrote a book about the Versailles Treaty. And he called it the
00:42:04.980
economic consequences of the peace, where he kind of forecasted that, hey, there's some bad things
00:42:11.140
going to come particularly about reparations and debt in Germany and some of these countries not
00:42:15.020
being able to pay this off, that maybe the terms were too tough and people didn't listen to him.
00:42:19.780
And of course, it was when people asked about how Hitler came to power, Hitler came to power because
00:42:24.440
of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic. They really destroyed the currency. And when you destroy
00:42:30.260
a person, when you destroy a country's currency, you really destroy the fabric of the country.
00:42:36.280
Do you not, Philip Patrick? Absolutely. I don't think any historian disagrees with that position
00:42:42.580
today. The Treaty of Versailles put the German people in dire straits and desperate people do
00:42:48.740
desperate things. There's no question about that. Philip, can you hang on for a second? I want to hold
00:42:55.080
you for another block. I got some other questions to ask you about the current situation, particularly
00:42:58.720
as President Trump goes through and looks through various alternatives to deal with this situation,
00:43:06.200
and Persia. Don't know if we're going to hear from the president or not tonight or not, maybe even
00:43:11.540
a press avail, et cetera. A lot of rumors going around. We're going to try to track them all down.
00:43:18.520
Short commercial break. You got Philip Patrick of Birch Gold. Just take your phone out right now.
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Okay. Philip Patrick, the geopolitical concern, flight to quality, we've had, you know,
00:45:22.640
it's about volatility. It's about safe havens. There's all kind of rumor tonight that President
00:45:27.660
Trump may come and address the nation. We have not heard anything official, right? We know that
00:45:33.220
people are reviewing a range of alternatives, including continue on in negotiations, but
00:45:38.500
give them a play me or trade me now. But if this continues down the path, and clearly Israel
00:45:44.340
is going to keep pounding the Persians, and the Persians are going to pound back. And if
00:45:51.060
the oil assets and resources get hit down there by Bajra and those massive fields down there,
00:45:57.000
what's your sense of where this could head as far as financial markets and particularly gold?
00:46:03.220
Look, I think it's in our interest for President Trump to try and end this as quickly as possible.
00:46:08.800
Obviously, some of it, a lot of it's out of his control. But the longer this goes on,
00:46:12.920
the worse it is for global financial markets. We saw an immediate response, obviously,
00:46:16.860
from energy markets. We saw a 7.5% spike in oil prices last Friday. On the back of that,
00:46:24.500
obviously, gold, the traditional safe haven, when US treasuries are not, spiked as well. It drove
00:46:30.240
up 1.5% on the back of that news alone. From a broader economic perspective, regional instability
00:46:38.400
adds to fuel the existing inflation that's happening here in the United States and around
00:46:43.540
the world. And it comes at a time when major economies are already strained, right? Europe's
00:46:48.200
in recession, China's growth is spluttering, and our own GDP in the first quarter was negative 0.3%.
00:46:55.080
So I would say geopolitical shocks like this, they don't create an economic crisis,
00:47:00.300
but they put pressure on financial system and make the craps worse at a time when we really
00:47:06.520
can't afford to. So this isn't welcome news domestically for the economy. But I don't see
00:47:12.260
where this goes. We've had sanctions on Iran since the 1970s. They don't appear to be stopping
00:47:18.240
them pursuing a nuclear weapon. I don't know. Again, geopolitics is not my forte. From an economic
00:47:24.740
standpoint, we've got to end this as quickly as possible. Otherwise, it's going to be the
00:47:29.120
catalyst for the Fed to keep interest rates where they are. That's the last thing we need
00:47:33.600
from a debt standpoint and from a growth standpoint.
00:47:36.840
In an era of future instability, and you just mentioned that, hey, people are going to study
00:47:42.320
from 1971 to 2030 when you kind of had this floating, you had fiat currencies out there,
00:47:48.060
right, without anything really backing it up. In the article, they talk about central banks have
00:47:53.280
had this kind of fascination with gold here recently. And that's one of the reasons that
00:47:57.820
the price of gold, it's one that we tell people it's not the price, it's the process. You've got
00:48:01.000
to learn what's in back of it. That's been very strong demand by central banks. And we've got the
00:48:05.340
BRICS nations. In fact, you guys will be down there reporting from down there in Rio for the
00:48:12.000
Rio Reset. What is your anticipation of the appetite of the central banks to continue to
00:48:17.320
purchase gold at kind of the rates that they've been purchasing it in the last couple of years?
00:48:22.180
I mean, look, the trajectory is not letting up. Gold buying is increasing. The biggest single
00:48:27.280
quarter in world history was the fourth quarter of 2024. We saw a slight tail off first quarter of
00:48:33.640
this year, but the trend generally is increasing. And I think it'll continue to increase. We have to
00:48:38.940
remember the traditional safe haven asset was US government debt, Treasury specifically.
00:48:44.780
What we are seeing now is demand for that debt is waning, right? The Fed lowered interest rates on
00:48:51.700
lowered interest rates, borrowing rates on the 10-year went up 70 basis points. On the 30-year,
00:48:59.260
100 basis points, which is concerning. So I am of the belief that trend will continue.
00:49:05.460
And until another currency appears, right? There is not a currency better than the dollar today
00:49:10.580
outside of gold. Until that appears, I think central banks will continue increasing gold holdings.
00:49:16.600
Let's not forget, gold overtook the euro as the number two global reserve asset last year.
00:49:26.300
Well, Philip, how do people start to work with your team? How do they start to work with your team?
00:49:32.660
Where do they go? Of course. So very simple. Information is big for us as it is for you.
00:49:38.220
So birchgold.com forward slash Bannon or text Bannon to 989898, either one. That will get them access
00:49:48.700
to free information kits, how and why to buy precious metals today. And importantly, the installments of
00:49:55.600
the dollar empire. So birchgold.com forward slash Bannon. They can reach me personally on
00:50:05.780
And people just remember that we don't get into it a lot, but birchgold has got all kinds of
00:50:11.540
methodologies and mechanisms, 401ks, IRAs, tax deferred, all of it. Get into the details
00:50:16.540
with them. We've partnered with these guys for four years now. It's been a great partnership because
00:50:20.840
what we decided to do at the beginning is do something different and give people information
00:50:26.040
so they understood the dollar, they understood currency, they understood what the primary
00:50:30.220
reserve currency is, they understood gold and how important gold really is in the system,
00:50:34.360
whereas a lot of people dismiss it. And as Philip said, it's had a better run in this century than
00:50:39.580
any asset. Pretty, it's not what gold's really set up to do or done historically, but hey, you never
00:50:44.940
know. Philip Patrick, you guys over at Birchgold are terrific and thank you for taking care of
00:50:49.180
everybody. Thank you for having me, Steve. Good to see you.
00:50:53.880
You really, you really, if you get in with his team over there, it'd be a very good experience.
00:50:59.160
Birchgold.com, go check it out today. Put promo code Bannon in there and you get all the free
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access to the information. Mike Lindell, did you win or did you lose? Mainstream media told me
00:51:09.600
you're lost. I'm hearing from the, from the alternative media, us, that you won. What is it?
00:51:15.120
It's a big win, everybody. My pill, 100% innocent. And Dick, we got completely validated that we did
00:51:24.340
nothing wrong, never did anything wrong. And I want to tell you, Steve, the other part that the
00:51:29.620
mainstream media is telling you, these are all, this, my statements, they said there's three of
00:51:35.120
them that I made, realized they were all after I was attacked. It's like being in jail and you
00:51:40.840
bad mouth the guard. You're out and you're in jail and you weren't supposed to be there.
00:51:44.840
They sued me first before I did anything. And you know what? It's the same team that called my
00:51:51.020
pillows lumpy. Remember that? Same attorney. I think I called them all, I called them all criminals.
00:51:57.120
And you know what? They're going, coming after me for it. But we, we won you guys. We keep fighting
00:52:02.900
and my pillow is here to stay. We're not going anywhere. And they asked me if I'm going to quit
00:52:08.420
talking about securing our elections. Of course I am. And I wanted to get on here. I want to thank
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the War Room Pile to you guys. This is the last few hours we did this. You guys supported us. These
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Brother, the most powerful promo code in the world. We'll see you tomorrow morning.
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Stick around. The second hour of the War Room will be quite intense.
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