Episode 4584： Was Iran's Nuclear Program Was A Misdirection Play
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Summary
According to an early U.S. intelligence assessment, the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of Iran s nuclear program, and likely only set it back a few months. This is according to a report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, which is the Pentagon's intelligence arm.
Transcript
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Major breaking news into CNN. Three sources tell CNN that according to an early U.S. intelligence
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assessment, the U.S. military strikes on three of Iran's nuclear facilities last weekend
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did not destroy the core components of the country's nuclear program and likely only
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set it back a few months. That's right. So this is an assessment that actually is out from the
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Defense Intelligence Agency. That is the Pentagon's intelligence arm. And it was based on a battle
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damage assessment conducted by U.S. CENTCOM after the strikes, according to one of the sources.
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To that question that has been asked about how much damage has been done, this is a real question.
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It's also a political question that has been to something that Donald Trump has been sort of
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dealing with here recently. What are you learning, Natasha? Yeah, look, Brianna, this is the first
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assessment that we are getting that the U.S. intelligence community has found about the
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battle damage that resulted from those U.S. military strikes on these three Iranian nuclear
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facilities over the weekend. And as you said, it was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency,
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which is the Pentagon's intelligence arm. And it is worth noting that it is a very early assessment.
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The strikes were only a matter of days ago, and the intelligence community is still
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gathering intelligence. They are still working to come up with a full comprehensive picture of what
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exactly happened here. But based on a battle damage assessment that was carried out by U.S.
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Central Command, essentially looking at the images and looking at what was actually damaged,
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the Defense Intelligence Agency has assessed that the core components of Iran's nuclear program
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are largely intact and that Iran's nuclear program has essentially only been set back by months.
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Now, we presented this information to the White House for comment, and White House Press Secretary
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Carolyn Levitt, she did acknowledge the existence of this assessment, but she said in a statement
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that the administration disagrees with it. She said, quote,
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this alleged assessment is flat out wrong and was classified as top secret, but was still leaked
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to CNN by an anonymous low-level loser in the intelligence community. The leaking of this alleged
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assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who
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conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens
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when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets, total obliteration. Now,
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it is worth noting here that there has been dissent, I should say, within the intelligence community,
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within the defense community, about just how much of an impact these massive bunker buster bombs would
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actually have on Iran's nuclear facilities. It was far from certain, given that these bombs had never
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been tested in an actual combat scenario, whether they would actually penetrate those very,
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very deep underground tunnels that lie underneath these nuclear facilities. And what we are told
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is that, as of now, this Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, it does conclude at this point,
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again, it is still very early, that those underground facilities, including the centrifuges,
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including the highly enriched uranium that everyone has been talking so much about, those are largely
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intact. Now, of course, this does stand at odds with what President Donald Trump and Secretary of
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Defense Pete Hegseth has been saying in recent days about the impact of these U.S. military strikes.
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Of course, President Trump said it was totally obliterated. And Secretary Hegseth did as well. And he
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actually also provided CNN with a statement. And he said that, quote, based on everything we have seen,
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and I've seen it all, our bombing campaign obliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons.
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Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly. The impact of those
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bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran. So anyone who says the bombs were not devastating
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is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission. Now, our sources did
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emphasize here that there was severe damage that was done largely to the above ground structures at
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these nuclear sites. And so there was damage done, of course, by these massive bombs. But the core
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components of the nuclear program, we are told they are largely intact and it only set the program back
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Israel says that Iran violated the peace agreement and the ceasefire agreement. Do you believe that
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Yeah, I do. They violated it, but Israel violated it too.
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Are you questioning if Israel was committed to peace?
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Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of
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which I've never seen before. The biggest load that we've seen. I'm not happy with Israel.
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You know, when I say, OK, now you have 12 hours. You don't go out in the first hour and just drop
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everything you have on them. So I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with Iran either.
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But I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning because the one rocket that didn't land,
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that was shot, perhaps by mistake, that didn't land. I'm not happy about that.
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You know what? We have we basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so
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hard that they don't know what the they're doing. Do you understand that?
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Pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on these people.
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I got a free shot. All these networks lying about the people. The people have had a belly full of it.
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I know you don't like hearing that. I know you try to do everything in the world to stop that,
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but you're not going to stop it. It's going to happen. And where do people like that go
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to share the big line? Mega media. I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a
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conscience. Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save my
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country, this country will be saved. War Room. Here's your host, Stephen K. Vance.
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It's Tuesday, 24 June, the year of our Lord, 2025. Of course, a bombshell, no pun intended,
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dropped this afternoon, predictably leaked by the deep state. Jack Posobiec, I think Kurt Mills is
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going to join. We're going to have Sam Faddis in the morning. Jack Posobiec, let's make sure that we,
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you know, the president's right now still in at the NATO meeting. I guess they just, I guess maybe they're
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just breaking up. So he's got the whole fiasco with Ukraine and Zelensky, who showed up, who was
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invited, that he's trying to lay hands on and make sure that we stopped the killing over in Ukraine,
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the Russian-Ukraine war. This came out today, as you and I said it was going to happen. The deep state
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came out. And this is what happens when you don't put out your own bomb, your own preliminary
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battle damage assessment starting on Sunday morning, just as a first cut.
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Jack, break this down for me. This is a CENTCOM. It's coming from CENTCOM, but obviously they
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reported the combatant commanders on the intel side do have a, I guess, a lateral responsibility
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to the DIA. DIA, actually, I think technically the leak came from there. What is your assessment of
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their preliminary battle damage assessment, sir? Well, Steve, to be clear, we don't know exactly
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where the leak came from yet. Caroline Levitt said that it came from a low-level staffer clearly
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designed to undermine President Trump's mission, President Trump's successful achievement of the
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commander's desired end state in his objectives with the operation over the weekend. But what we're
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told at this point was that the initial battle damage assessment was done by CENTCOM and then was
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handed off to DIA to create their larger assessment. So CENTCOM is collecting the intelligence. DIA,
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of course, then is going to be working with NRO, Space Force, satellite assets to be able to determine
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other pieces of that to then take a look down deep inside and give their best guess as to what has
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going on. So the real question here, I think, is for the CENTCOM commander, and that's General
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Carrilla, to come out and set the record straight on all of this, because it does seem like the initial
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sourcing for this assessment went down to the combatant commander of CENTCOM. And CENTCOM, for
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folks, is the parlance. That's the Middle East, right? With PACOM, we say Pacific and AFRICOM and EUCOM,
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but CENTCOM means Central Command. That's your Middle East command. And this town, as we've been
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saying here on War Room for a while, Steve, this is a CENTCOM town, Washington, D.C. The money flows
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south from the CENTCOM commander, and that's General Carrilla. And so I haven't seen yet General Carrilla
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come up and give a press conference. He did not speak very notably. He was there, I believe, at the
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battle damage assessment on Sunday morning with Secretary Hegseth, as well as the chairman of the Joint
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Chiefs. But he did not give his assessment as well. Look, we were told there'd be a couple of
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days after this. And so now the fact that this has gone up so much, I think it's really behoovant on
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General Carrilla to come forward and explain to the American people what exactly went down,
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because this was a huge, huge mission for the American military, certainly in the wake of the
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last big military operation being this, you know, the Houthis and then Afghanistan. So really something to
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put Americans' trust and credibility back in the U.S. military. And we need to have that.
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And America needs to hear from General Carrilla.
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You know, so we started this, you had the, obviously the Saturday evening, I think 640
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is when they started hitting all the way through our show. We announced it here live, Jack, you remember.
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Then Pete Hegseth and General Raisin Cain gave the briefing at 8 a.m. Real America's Voice covered that live.
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It was, and you and I noted, it was strange at the time that there was a detailed of the logistics
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in the inner mechanisms of the actual strike itself, which was incredible. And you're at the scale,
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the distance, the difficulty. The attack itself, Jack, and you know that as an intel officer,
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there's nothing short of breathtaking. I think it behooves all of us. And we have called for this
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now nonstop. Remember, I think they canceled, I think, I'm not actually sure, but I think they
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canceled or delayed, not canceled. They pushed back what we talked to Senator Rand Paul about today,
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which was the intel that drove this initially, right? How did all of a sudden this come out of
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nowhere? I think everybody's got to take a deep breath. Clearly, you look at the strike. And President
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Trump, who they gave him an assessment pretty quickly, said it's obliterated, at least to the
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human eye, it looks obliterated. And there's all types of technologies, which you're going to talk
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about, that get you there. But I think we have to go back to the beginning. Until you can tell the
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battle damage assessment and what they got and what percentage, that's not the way these things are
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done. What was the initial target package? What were the, what were the, the, the, the combatant
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commanders and then the pilots all the way down through the chain, as you know, in intel and
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particularly in air intel, and when you're using Tomahawks, this is where you start. This is the
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package. This is what we're doing. This is one of the reasons, Jackie, you remember, I was startled and
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said, we're using Tomahawks on one of them. They haven't been taken down by Israeli military yet,
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by the, by the aircraft. Why are we using a 1970s technology? I mean, the Tomahawk missile
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is a war horse for the fleet, but it's pretty shocking that that, those, a surface on the third,
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really the third facility had not already been taken down. That's why, because you kind of look
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at these strike packages. Don't we have to go back to the beginning? We have to go back.
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Tulsi Gabbard and D&I have been pretty adamant that there's not really a change to what their
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assessment is. CIA and, you know, another intelligence agency, probably Mossad, that's
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what people are talking about from a different source, had information that drove a sense of
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urgency that the initial assault had to be done. That was still, that's still the, and they said,
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we have to do this because they're very close to getting a bomb. They're very close to weaponizing
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this. This is so urgent. We have to go now. We have to go now. We have to go now. And the Israelis
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did. So I'd like to know what was passed to the Americans from that, that gets us the target package
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of, because you can't assess it until you actually see what the target package is. Am I correct on
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that, Jack Vosovic? Well, Steve, that's right. And the target package would include the facility
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itself. Obviously, Fordow is a known facility. The Iranians have had this for years. So this is
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something that if you're the CENTCOM commander, you're coming up with strike packages all day
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long for this and running tests again and again and scenarios as to what complete destruction would
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look like versus partial destruction versus breaking its operational capabilities for using various
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different types of munitions, ordnance, delivery vehicles. Obviously, the president, of course,
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made the final call there, choosing the B-2 Spirit Bombers and the Bunker Busters. So the question,
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though, of course, I think for a lot of people and look, I broke this earlier today on Human Events
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Daily, Steve, but they said Mossad leadership, we got a report that Mossad leadership was on the phone
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with CIA Director Ratcliffe earlier during these negotiations saying we're going to keep going,
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we're going to keep going. And Ratcliffe had to drop the hammer and say, look, if you guys continue
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to do this to counterman President Trump's call for the ceasefire, then we are going to cut off
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intelligence sharing from our end to you. So we're going to sever this relationship right now.
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Now that we broke that story, it's now going viral online between CIA, Mossad, all this
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intelligence sharing. So a lot of people asking these questions right now correctly, I believe,
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as to what exactly was going on. Of course, General Carrillo being the CENTCOM commander would have
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liaison with CIA, as well as with Mossad. So the questions, I think, really need to be answered
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by General Carrillo. Where did the intelligence come from? How did this happen? And how did this
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Can you stick around for a minute, Jack? I realize it's a long day. I appreciate the audience.
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I appreciate it. Kirk Mills is with us. Think about President Trump. After flying over there,
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getting up at the old dark 30, having to deal with Netanyahu again, and all of this, he gets
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there, he gets these huge, tough meetings about Ukraine, and now he's got this to deal with
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Okay, Kurt Mills is going to join us. Philip Patrick, there's a lot going on. Big announcement
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out of, about the BRICS. POSO, but POSO, don't rush this. Before we get back to the bomb damage
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or the battle damage assessment, at least the preliminary got leaked and we don't know how
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accurate this is. It sounds like it's not particularly accurate with the deep state,
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you know, some junior level leaking it. But tell me, you know, don't rush through it because
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this is quite controversial. There is a real sense of, I would say, non-cooperation, to
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be blunt about it, in the last 24 hours, is it not, Mr. POSOBIC, about President Trump
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putting together this ceasefire. One of the reasons you should know that people I talked
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to said President Trump put together the ceasefire was for the people of Israel. And
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what do I mean by that? Yesterday, I'm told, was one of the worst days, if not the worst
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day in this entire 12-day war. They were getting hammered. They're running out of ammo.
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They miscalculated what the Persians would be able to hit them with. I understand in
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Tel Aviv yesterday, it was quite horrific. And I'm not sure we've even got all the full
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reports of how horrific it was on Israeli citizens. President Trump took that into consideration
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in doing this with the Qataris. And now you're telling me there was limited cooperation
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with Netanyahu's government. In fact, President Trump went to bed understanding they had a
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package. They had a strike package. And President Trump said, as he said out there at the beginning
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of the show, we played it now in the morning and here, that he said, hey, you just can't
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go pound these people. We're going towards a ceasefire. And he thought he had an understanding
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by Netanyahu. And he gets up and they pounded them. And that's why he went ballistic. You're
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saying something that actually Radcliffe and Mossad, let's be blunt, have kind of a little
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bit been hand in glove, right, in this whole situation. And particularly on this kind of
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emergency, you know, they got new information and it's all coming from the CIA, which is
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different than what DNI had. So give the audience one more time, take a deep breath, because this
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is big. You're saying that when they told them, hey, we're going to stand down here because
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President Trump's negotiating a ceasefire, the Mossad did not, they did not, they did not
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snap to attention and salute, sir. Steve, Human Events is now reporting, according to two
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individuals who were briefed on this phone call between Mossad leadership and CIA director
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that Mossad had indicated to the Central Intelligence Agency that they intended to press forward with
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various attacks, various strikes. We know these decapitation, assassination strikes that have
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been going on and really indicative and emblematic of this 12 day war, certainly on day one, those
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in that initial shock and awe of the first day. And the CIA director responded, say, wait a minute,
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President Trump has called for a ceasefire. And that means that includes what anything that you have
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on the ground that you can stop as of right now. Mossad indicated they wanted to push forward.
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And the CIA director said, if this continues, that intelligence sharing, this was the warning that
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intelligence sharing, this relationship will be severed after that point. And at that point,
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they finally stood down, at least for now. So you're seeing this tension play out now, Steve,
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between our intelligence service and Israel, Israel's intelligence service, the same way you saw it
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between the prime minister and the president. A tense call. Another tense call.
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Yeah, we're big. Yeah, we're big believers in each, you know, Israel first, America first, got it.
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You got to do what's right for your nation. However, and let's be honest, it's not an ally. It's not an ally
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situation. Netanyahu was not there for Soleimani. He backed out the last second. That's President Trump
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will tell you that story all the time. We still don't have, we still, let's be bring up an unpleasant
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topic. We still don't know about October 7th. That thing, Jack Posobiec, you and I were doing that
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live here in the war room, you know, on the Saturday morning show when it occurred. And we had some of
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those questions that have not been answered today. But, and understand, but when you're a protectorate
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and the individual that is protecting you, the commander in chief of the United States,
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when he says something, you should take it like a papal bull. He's not there to have a discussion.
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And with his representatives like the CIA, and the Mossad's done an incredible job. I mean,
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let's be blunt. On the first night, Jack Posobiec, that was not going for the nuclear,
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the nuclear bomb program. So how do we know that? Nothing had been touched, essentially,
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maybe some engineers, but nothing of the facilities had been touched until the evening of Saturday
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evening on the strike, including the above ground, which took 30 Tomahawk missiles, which, you know,
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that's 1970s technology, 1980s technology. So the Mossad, they've done a great job. They've
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assassinated a bunch of people that have had kill squads. It's incredible. When President Trump
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says, I'm doing a ceasefire, and that means we're going to stop killing people, and his CIA director
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tells you that, we're not really looking for any back chat. It's called an order. The United States
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runs the deal here. And this is what upsets me so much. We run the deal. If you don't like that,
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then do it all on your own. Don't come for us, and don't come as a supplicant and ask for air
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defense. Don't ask for the Arleigh Burke squadron to go to the eastern Mediterranean. Don't give us
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a package, and we've got to find out this is why this intelligence, and I hear today, I think the
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thing on Capitol Hill was canceled or pushed back. And it sounds like it's pushed back. One of the
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reasons, Jack Posobie, because the battle damage assessment has been leaked, and we have no idea.
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It's leaked, to be blunt, to make President Trump look bad. And it's leaked at this time. This is not
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random the New York Times has it. It's not random the CNN has it, because they know in Europe they're
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watching CNN, not MSNBC. And it's during his dinner, where he's trying to bench press these people
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to make sure that we can put the guns down and bring the Ukraine fiasco that they all drove.
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And the Fox people, like Mark, you know, Tel Aviv, Mark Levin, drove, now with two million
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casualties. President Trump's got that, and now they leaked this, so that at the end of his dinner,
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right, he doesn't give a moment's peace. Now he's got all of them, and all night long,
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they're just going to be sitting there going, oh, nothing happened. This whole thing was,
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you know, just Trump being a fantasy autocrat. When in fact, a lot happened, and it obliterated,
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and you can see. But this is why it's so important, Jack Posobiec, to bring this intelligence forward
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and know what we were starting with. What did we start with, and what do we have now?
00:23:37.840
Poso. Well, Steve, that's why I want to, and I think it would be incumbent on the CENTCOM commander
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to come forward, and whether he's going to give that briefing behind closed doors, or in a way
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where it can be declassified in a way. By the way, Steve, you remember, I was calling for the
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declassification of these images as early as Monday morning, saying that, you know, the American people,
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of course, want to see the incredible bravery and skill of their pilots. And I have no doubt
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when President Trump says that this thing was completely obliterated, that it in fact was.
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But at the same time, with my intelligence analyst hat on, there are real questions about the
00:24:18.620
technology. We want to see if the technology, how it worked, whether this was completely destroyed.
00:24:24.680
And by the way, not only that, but we want to know, were the centrifuges actually there?
00:24:29.880
Because this has been the big question of all of it. Have they been able, were they able to get
00:24:34.580
them out beforehand? Did they leave them in? What was there? What do we have left? Of course,
00:24:39.860
there's real questions about this. By the way, the IAEA, just as we're talking, Steve,
00:24:44.640
the IAEA says U.S. strikes on Iran were, quote, very damaging. The group found that two impact holes
00:24:52.860
from the U.S. strikes were above the underground. Remember, it's two bombs per hole,
00:24:56.820
were above the underground halls that had been used for enrichment as well as storage. So they're
00:25:03.500
basing their battle damage assessment just on the commercial imagery that's come out. Obviously,
00:25:08.960
the DIA and Central Command would have much more robust ability to discern what's there. But even
00:25:15.460
the IAEA says they aren't able to determine exactly what is left. And Steve, I think what's going on here
00:25:21.600
now is, look, we know that in the intelligence agencies and in the intelligence community writ
00:25:26.300
large, there's no love lost between them, President Trump, Secretary Hegseth, DNI Gabbard,
00:25:32.980
John Ratcliffe, all the rest are with CIA. And so they would do anything they can to undermine this
00:25:38.920
administration the same way that this same pit nest of vipers was doing the exact same in the first
00:25:45.660
administration. And of course, they're doing it while he's meeting with the NATO meters.
00:25:49.480
And you got Zelensky in there. He's up in a suit for the first time because you know he's going to
00:25:53.180
be pushing for that supplemental aid package for Ukraine and all the rest of it. It's clearly why
00:25:58.120
this leak was done now to undermine the president while he's abroad meeting with NATO.
00:26:05.120
Before I let you go, and I'm gonna get Kurt Mills here after the break, just to let you go.
00:26:10.280
This whole, the whole sense of urgency, I say the false sense of urgency, but the sense of urgency
00:26:16.340
came off of new intelligence that essentially the Mossad and CIA had that was different than what
00:26:22.400
our, the IC community as DNI represents otherwise. That includes CENCOM and DIA, defense intelligence.
00:26:31.580
That, that information drove a whole series of events, including a week later or 10 days later,
00:26:41.940
on Saturday, a massive strike, a coordinated strike of, of just epic proportions. I'd like
00:26:49.540
to see, we need to see that now more than ever, we have to understand that because that leads you
00:26:54.460
then to what exactly was accomplished of that. And that should come forward in some sort of
00:26:59.080
declassified mode immediately. And I'm of the opinion that when we see that, we're going to go,
00:27:07.820
hmm. Well, now, where is it that you had to start on Thursday night and do a sneak attack?
00:27:13.480
Where was that? Jack Posobiec, I know you get a bounce. Final thoughts, social media,
00:27:18.000
your, uh, human events daily has been on fire. This is in your wheelhouse, sir.
00:27:23.540
Well, thank you, Steve. I do appreciate that. And, uh, it's been, been burning the candle at both
00:27:27.520
ends a little bit here. So we're up at human events daily and humanevents.com. You can get all
00:27:31.820
the information on that report and more as we have it there. And, uh, Steve, as, as you can
00:27:38.440
imagine, I know you had, uh, you're, you're talking about the Kennedy center a little bit
00:27:42.340
earlier today. So tonight, I think I owe Tanya Tay a little bit. I was able to talk to, uh, some,
00:27:47.180
some folks and we got hooked up with some of those lame is tickets for tonight.
00:27:53.100
Uh, you guys have a good, you don't get enough nights out with the boys. So Tanya Tay,
00:27:57.740
who's spectator. Oh, no, no boys. It's just me and the missus. This is saying you guys get a date
00:28:03.120
night. Jack Posobiec on date. Jack, you have a great time. Thank you. Thank you for carving out
00:28:07.320
some time for the audience today. Appreciate you.
00:28:13.260
Philip Patrick and Kurt Mills. This can't get any more serious folks. Path to war and putting
00:28:20.460
Americans in harm's way. All next in the war room.
00:28:24.160
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promo code Steve. Do it today. Here's your host, Stephen K. Band.
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Kurt Mills joins us. Welcome back. Kurt Mills joins us. Birch Gold, the man from Birch Gold
00:30:02.040
is going to join us in a moment, Philip Patrick. I've asked him to come on today to kind of lay
00:30:05.420
everything out. Also talks about the BRICS. Huge news out of China that Xi may actually,
00:30:17.240
Xi may miss BRICS. And there's a lot going on in the Chinese Communist Party high command.
00:30:26.300
I think they made a decision, not a good time to be on a plane. We'll get to that in a moment
00:30:29.560
with our guy who is going to BRICS, Philip Patrick. So Kurt Mills, because this was a time leaked
00:30:38.420
by the deep state. Remember I told you three most powerful institutions, I'll leave the
00:30:44.660
courts aside for a second, but the three most powerful institutions that run the imperial
00:30:48.140
capital, the CIA, the Fed, and CENTCOM. CENTCOM is the muscle. The combatant commander, CENTCOM
00:30:55.760
is like a god on earth. You got Carrillo now. The initial information, that's why Caroline
00:31:02.520
Levitz, he became a very junior analyst. It started CENTCOM, got to DIA, and the deep state
00:31:07.680
leaked it on Trump and they timed it. They timed it for the most important. This is what
00:31:15.360
all the media in Europe is saying. This is the most important NATO summit. That's what
00:31:19.520
was scheduled for three days since the end of the Cold War. This one, because they're going
00:31:25.200
to determine Ukraine and so much else, geopolitically and geostrategically. So Kurt Mills, my argument
00:31:33.740
is that we don't know why we had to rush into war, right? And because we haven't been shown
00:31:42.120
that. And everything we know from D&I is that things were still normal course of business.
00:31:48.740
Netanyahu went on Brett Baer on Sunday night and said, yeah, there was a breakthrough, but it's
00:31:52.380
12 to 13 months away from a weapon. So it just doesn't. And so we don't know what President
00:32:00.260
Trump and what he signed off on in the strike, but they had a quick cut and it was obliterated.
00:32:05.920
And you can see that from even, you know, the International Atomic Energy Agency came out
00:32:13.200
and gave a pretty good report on just commercial based information. What is your theory of the
00:32:19.620
case here? Because folks, we can't, we're not going to have another Gulf of Tonking. Okay. Not
00:32:24.820
going to happen. That was before all alternative media and things like that. You're not going to
00:32:29.180
have a Gulf of Tonking. And we're not going to have a situation where they're running around
00:32:35.660
looking for scuds. We're not going to do the phony weapons of mass destruction where they lie
00:32:40.440
to your face, bald face. We're not going to let that happen. And that's why we're like a dog
00:32:47.140
with a bone with this. We've got to go back to those days and you must get the information. You
00:32:51.000
must get the receipts and the American people must understand this still keeping from sources and
00:32:56.700
methods. If there's got to be some classification, that's fine. But there's a lot of this information
00:33:00.720
we let out. So Kurt Mills, what is your theory of the case, sir?
00:33:06.700
Yeah. So, I mean, basically, you know, they're calling this the 12 day war, but I, you know,
00:33:12.580
I think it actually technically is the 11 day war. And so we have seen a case now where the
00:33:17.820
Israelis moved first. Some of the early strikes were awesome. And since the little sense of the
00:33:23.840
word, they evoked awe, they seemed attractive. And I think the president was frankly sympathetic
00:33:30.420
to the glamour of them. Then there was a strong pushback, in my opinion, by MAGA, by the base,
00:33:37.860
by this program, by others, Tucker Carlson, et cetera, et cetera. And I think the president
00:33:42.440
took in the full raft of information. And then he eventually moved last Saturday in the direction
00:33:49.540
that he was always going to move, which is that he was going to do the strikes on
00:33:54.560
the Iranian nuclear sites. I do wonder, though, as the reporting is trickling in, and as the frankly,
00:34:02.200
just open bad faith of the Israeli government led by Netanyahu is made manifest that they didn't want
00:34:07.840
to honor the ceasefire. I do wonder if the fuller picture of what has transpired,
00:34:12.420
just transpired, is coming into view, which is, and there was a report just, you know,
00:34:17.200
it came over the wire 30 minutes ago about a defense intelligence agency report that said that,
00:34:23.880
you know, even if all of the nuclear sites were destroyed, which I think remains an if,
00:34:28.420
respectively to the White House, even if they were destroyed, the Iranians would basically be able
00:34:32.860
to rebuild this capacity in a matter of months, which was the assessment of many independent
00:34:38.720
experts and analysts even before these strikes. So it is setting up the situation in which the
00:34:44.420
nuclear issue, the striking nuclear facilities is a false issue. It doesn't actually solve the problem
00:34:52.100
for either side. For those who want to avoid war, this was an unnecessary tactical move. And for those
00:35:00.000
who want war, I think the tell is already in it. They're already upset today. The Marklevins of,
00:35:06.760
you know, in theory, they got what they wanted. They got the president of the United States to bomb
00:35:12.280
the Iranians on behalf of a foreign government. And when Trump brokered a ceasefire, they screamed
00:35:17.800
bloody murder because the nuclear issue is not really the issue here. I think it should be negotiated.
00:35:23.680
I don't think Iran should be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. And I think that offer is at the table
00:35:28.060
right now, which is why Israel intervened in this conflict in the first place, to stop a peace
00:35:35.820
Let me through that again. You're saying that the nuclear bomb making and all that is not,
00:35:43.040
was not the purpose. And that's one of the reasons we haven't seen, and there haven't been any,
00:35:48.560
it hasn't been any even leaks to the media about what, what drove the urgency, right? Before we got
00:35:56.360
to the upsell. Because that's not really what this was about. That was a misdirection play, is what
00:36:02.320
you're saying, correct? And that's where the CIA and the Mossad come in?
00:36:06.280
Look, I think there is Israel. I think there's the Israeli government. And then there's this Israeli
00:36:10.400
government led by this prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. And what we know about Benjamin Netanyahu is that
00:36:15.240
he has been claiming about an imminent Iranian nuclear program since at least the time that he was
00:36:21.700
UN ambassador in the early 90s. He said the Iranians would have a nuke within five years. He has been
00:36:26.840
claiming that it is just on the horizon for his entire political career at this point. It is a, it is a fake
00:36:36.300
issue insofar as the Israelis' goal, the prime minister's goal, is regime change in Iran. It is very
00:36:44.640
hard to say that openly. And so they obsess over, or they get the American public, they get the Murdoch
00:36:51.900
empire, they get the Republican establishment, they get an audience of President Trump to obsess over
00:36:59.140
the nuclear issue. But once the nuclear issue itself is taken off the table, they keep moving
00:37:04.500
the goalposts. The Iranians at the beginning of these negotiations, look, not trying to do the
00:37:10.040
Iranians any favor here. But the Iranians came in with a certain amount of weakness. And they said,
00:37:15.380
look, we will agree to no nuclear weapon. In fact, even if you don't believe them, the supreme leader
00:37:20.160
has a fochball on nuclear weapons. They basically don't want their enemies in the region to have them
00:37:25.320
either. So they're comfortable putting it off the table. Then the goalposts got moved to what?
00:37:30.040
Zero enrichment. The Iranians weren't allowed to enrich any uranium, even a very low amount,
00:37:37.260
because that was going to be an impossible demand or near impossible demand for the Iranians to meet.
00:37:43.100
And so once we reached to day 61, the Israelis spectacularly intervened to enforce a fake deadline
00:37:51.820
to a negotiation that they weren't party to. There were only two parties in this negotiation,
00:37:57.380
Iran and the U.S. and the Israelis intervened to, quote, enforce the U.S. side. And, you know,
00:38:04.280
that's what caused this crisis. And I think Trump, you know, this morning, in the full totality of
00:38:10.360
events, a little bit in the rear view, hopefully, has seen what has happened. And you saw him snap.
00:38:15.820
You saw him snap on the White House lawn. He said, I'm not happy with Iran or Israel, but he really,
00:38:22.140
really reserved his ire for Netanyahu. He seemed disgusted with the bad faith. And frankly, the fact
00:38:29.000
that, I mean, it was pretty astonishing. They announced the ceasefire, but the ceasefire went
00:38:33.260
into effect several hours later. And it was like the armistice day in World War I. The deal was signed
00:38:39.140
in the 4 a.m. hour and they were like World War I generals insanely throwing men over the lines to get
00:38:45.860
more killing done before 11-11. That's what it was. And that's who we're dealing with right now with the
00:38:50.840
current government in Jerusalem. The deep state's stepping in here, too. You can see this. This
00:38:59.380
whole leak now is to try to jam up President Trump. And they're going to, they're still looking for,
00:39:04.840
they have not given up. They're still looking for any, because you can see Levin and these guys,
00:39:09.700
the Fox News guys, they're apoplectic that President Trump has stopped here and wanted to
00:39:14.960
ceasefire and says, hey, there's no more war. It's a 12-day war. End of story.
00:39:19.560
What do you anticipate? What choice are they trying to force, sir?
00:39:25.620
Well, just to underline it again, that shows you the nuclear issue. It's fake in a certain sense,
00:39:30.600
right? Like Trump took it off the table and now they're losing their minds because he doesn't care
00:39:35.200
about regime change or anything else. What they are trying to force here is regime change. That is
00:39:41.360
what they want. And additionally for Netanyahu, I think he wants the crisis to just keep going
00:39:47.640
because he needs this spectacular state of exception in order for him to remain Prime
00:39:53.840
Minister of Israel. He needs a war footing. He needs his own population docile and fearful
00:39:59.580
and terrified for the prospects of their own lives in order to keep voting for somebody who has this
00:40:05.660
level of political liability and frankly is stale in the Israeli cast of mind. He has been around,
00:40:11.300
as I mentioned, on the national scene since the early 90s. They're sick of him. And so he needs a
00:40:16.040
crisis to keep this going. I'm not submitting that his successor, the most likely successor is his
00:40:20.760
predecessor, Naftali Bennett, wouldn't be a conservative hawk, wouldn't be an Israeli hardliner,
00:40:26.380
wouldn't perpetuate the war in Gaza in some fashion. I think he would. But there wouldn't
00:40:30.900
be this level of intermingling with the U.S. political system. Netanyahu is, in some senses,
00:40:37.580
more interspersed into the American system than, you know, he is with the Israeli system. And it is this,
00:40:44.040
you know, weird, incestuous relationship. I mean, when Netanyahu addresses Congress,
00:40:50.120
many times Republicans and Democrats both look at him like he is more and above the President of the
00:40:56.920
United States. That is not America first. That is not nationalistic. That is pretty gross and it
00:41:04.040
should be dismissed. Well, I think it is going to be dismissed because now this is serious. You put
00:41:11.040
all those people in harm's way. You obliterated what was there, what told the packages, and now
00:41:16.620
it's being leaked. And you wait till tonight. It's going to be a firestorm. And President Trump's
00:41:20.300
dealing with Ukraine, trying to get out of this Ukraine mess. And now he's got this on top of it,
00:41:26.800
got to come back. I mean, there's never a second, never a second. There's not ultimate pressure
00:41:32.080
on him. Real quickly, Kurt, before we bolt, any thoughts on the Ukraine? Zelensky's there,
00:41:37.840
and I think he's actually in a suit. This is the most important. We got about a minute
00:41:42.580
and a half. Most important NATO meeting since the end of the Cold War. Your thoughts?
00:41:47.580
Well, just off the top, I thought it was humorous that Trump basically said that the Israeli demands
00:41:52.300
were so extreme that he can't wait to deal with NATO, whose extreme demands are less extreme.
00:41:58.120
Obviously, they are. I think with the Russia-Ukraine situation, it exists within the shadow of Iran.
00:42:05.080
I mean, I was in Europe last week or the week before, and this is basically what people wanted
00:42:09.600
to talk about. And the reality here is if the US got involved into Iran war, the Ukrainians would be
00:42:16.700
thrown into a wood chipper. So the Russians and the Iranians are allies, but the European thinking on
00:42:21.360
this, frankly, is often so blinkered and emotional. If the US put all of its resources into the Iran fight,
00:42:27.720
we don't have the materiel and attention span to do both, and Zelensky would be in big trouble.
00:42:34.200
So I think that's what you see there. And then I know you always try to link for the audience to China.
00:42:40.020
I don't know if this report's been covered on this program, but there was a report within the last
00:42:44.820
couple of days of four Chinese ships basically going off radar and disappearing near Iranian land space.
00:42:52.600
And there's great speculation that if the US got back, if it got pulled into an Israeli war with Iran,
00:43:00.600
that the Chinese would try to turn this into our Ukraine, which is to say we wouldn't lose,
00:43:07.700
but we, like Vladimir Putin, would just be drawn into a quagmire in which all of our state capacity was exhausted.
00:43:13.760
And I think that's the danger here. That's the danger of these wars of choice. The Ukraine war is a
00:43:19.200
Democrat war of choice, but the Iran war is the Republican war of choice.
00:43:24.340
Kurt, social media, where do they go to get you?
00:43:27.260
Sure. The magazine, theamericanconservative.com, and my own channel is at Kurt Mill, C-U-R-T,
00:43:37.580
Kurt, fantastic. Short commercial break. We're going to talk about the bricks in the world with
00:43:48.840
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00:45:04.500
Okay, welcome back. Philip Patrick joins us. Philip, first of all, we're going to talk about
00:45:10.860
the BRICS in a moment. Give us your assessment that the markets have been, I'm not saying this
00:45:14.620
is a yawn, but they've taken this in stride, both in gold and oil and the stock market.
00:45:20.580
Is it because they don't think this is real? They think President Trump sorted it out enough?
00:45:28.120
I think it was the Iranian response, right? Everyone was sort of waiting to see how the
00:45:32.200
Iranians responded. The big concern was that, as they said, they were going to shut the
00:45:37.180
Straits of Hormuz, which would send oil prices globally skyrocketing. By bombing a U.S. base
00:45:43.020
in Qatar, it was a much more measured approach from the Iranians. And I think financial markets
00:45:48.200
welcome that. Obviously, oil prices dropped. I think it was 11%, 12% in a day. Gold dropped a little
00:45:54.360
bit as well. But again, this is short term. This is the market saying, look, it didn't escalate
00:45:59.720
beyond where it needed to be at this point. But it's, as you were discussing earlier, this
00:46:04.940
thing isn't done yet. We have to see how it's going to escalate.
00:46:10.280
Is, are the markets taken in because they also don't seem to be fully factoring in yet? Is that
00:46:18.260
because it's off the front page, given everything that's happening in D.C., the big, beautiful bill?
00:46:23.680
We know the big, beautiful bill markets poorly because of its name. People just think it's
00:46:28.040
a, it's a, it's a laundry list of things, right? So, so the term itself has got some negativity
00:46:34.560
to it, not associated with President Trump. But we had Rand Paul on this morning, the senator,
00:46:39.360
and he said, look, you know, this thing he thinks is going to get to the president's desk
00:46:43.380
by the fourth, but he says, there's still some big fights. Number one for him is going
00:46:46.780
to be the debt ceiling. He just says, look, if we pass five trillion, we're going to go
00:46:51.040
to five trillion pretty quickly. Are the markets not taking the, because of everything focused
00:46:56.300
on this war, that they're not, that they're not calculating in some of the, I mean, the
00:47:03.380
spending here is pretty big. And Ron Johnson has not been able to rally enough interest in
00:47:10.200
the town to really have some massive cuts. So you're still going to have these deficits,
00:47:15.080
sir. Look, the markets have a very short attention span. And like you said, I think things right now,
00:47:23.220
the focus is on what's happening on the, in the Middle East and how that will escalate and how
00:47:27.680
that will affect international trade. What is being affected is, is currency markets, right? And this
00:47:33.640
has been started with Biden, right? Demand for U.S. debt has started to wane, but it's been escalating
00:47:39.760
since Trump's been in office. And I think sort of the real hope for financial markets was Trump
00:47:45.840
would address deficit spending. They're trying to do it through growth, but this bill, obviously,
00:47:50.720
as we know, increases deficits and it's led to an escalation in de-dollarization. I think financial
00:47:56.840
markets, like I said, they've got a short attention span. Once this comes in and gets voted on,
00:48:02.360
we might start to see the markets or financial markets reacting more directly.
00:48:07.480
If this bill passes as roughly it is, will this continue the path for de-dollarization,
00:48:15.820
both in Europe and in Asia, those say, hey, we want to, we want to be stuck with as few dollar
00:48:25.840
Look, it's hard for me to say it because like I said, I support President Trump and,
00:48:31.580
you know, I believe in his ability to grow the economy longer term. But the question has always
00:48:37.020
been time? My answer is yes, right? Obviously, if we expand deficits, it makes our debt more
00:48:44.540
attractive at an international level and it will ultimately accelerate de-dollarization longer
00:48:50.060
term. We have to remember what we're banking on here is not guaranteed and that is economic growth.
00:48:56.440
The one thing that is guaranteed is this additional debt burden as it grows, as the interest on the debt
00:49:03.100
grows, as we start to print money to meet debt liability. That's a debt trap. And that's not
00:49:09.460
attractive for foreign investors. Factor in sort of weaponization, all the tricks that Biden played.
00:49:16.620
You know, once you fire that bullet, you can't put it back. So it's the perfect storm right now for
00:49:22.740
de-dollarization. I don't think expanding the deficit is going to help our case domestically
00:49:28.180
out of war, unfortunately. Okay. When Scott Besson says this is the last shot for a supply side
00:49:34.780
method to solve the financial and economic problems of the country, what he's saying,
00:49:41.900
the debt to deficit, I think, is close to six and a half, seven percent. He said you've got to get
00:49:46.600
that down to three. I think Ray Dalio concurs with that. We've been talking about that now for over a
00:49:51.660
year, how Biden didn't do it. It's six and a half, seven, maybe even higher.
00:49:54.520
What Besson and President Trump are doing on the supply side, they are basically betting on or
00:50:04.140
assuming or looking at math in these models. And that's why I think the model has got to be put
00:50:08.720
out more. I think we need more math, more backup to these models. They're saying we're actually
00:50:13.900
through the supply side tax cut, we will grow the economy. We will grow GDP at a higher percentage
00:50:21.260
than we'll grow the debt or the deficit and debt. And that will pay down. Then the deficit will start
00:50:25.800
coming down because we'll have more tax revenues, even at the lower tax structure. Is that essentially
00:50:36.820
That is exactly the bet we're making. It is a tough one. Listen, since the 70s,
00:50:43.200
debt has averaged eight and a half percent growth a year. GDP's averaged a little over three percent.
00:50:48.540
So, you know, we would have to massively boost GDP in order for that to happen.
00:50:55.100
There's a lot of things. Listen, these guys are smarter than I am, right? And you said putting
00:51:00.040
the modeling forward is a smart thing. I agree with that vehemently. For me, I struggle to see how we
00:51:06.880
do it. You know, I say all the time, we're 25 percent of the world's GDP. We attract 60 percent of the
00:51:12.500
world's capital. We are prime. We are not an emerging market. To grow at this level from where
00:51:18.540
we are is a tough task. I've said it before. There isn't a better team to do it. But, you know,
00:51:25.000
without dramatic changes, it's going to be difficult. That's why I think, and again, this is
00:51:29.520
not my area of expertise, but this AI race may be crucial here, right? Because whoever gets there
00:51:34.940
first, I think, can grow exponentially. There's a lot of things benefiting us. The US has incredible
00:51:40.480
natural resources. We're very blessed by geography. Longer term, I'm rooting for the US. How this
00:51:46.660
shapes out short to medium term is tough. But that's the gamble. That's always been the gamble.
00:51:52.480
Okay. Philip, can I hold you just for a minute or two through the break into the second hour?
00:51:59.440
Because I do want to get back to this, to the situation with the BRICS and particularly the
00:52:03.880
Chinese finance minister talking about an alternative, right? And now that she is
00:52:10.400
said, hey, I've met with Lula a couple of times and it sounded like, hey, Lula's on board with
00:52:15.360
whatever we want to do. So we're going to take a short commercial break. We're going to leave you
00:52:19.340
with the right stuff. It's that kind of day. It's a hot, miserably hot June day, late afternoon
00:52:28.640
when it really gets hot and muggy here in Washington, D.C. in the Imperial Capital. I think 100 today?
00:52:32.920
Close to 100, over 100 tomorrow. Miserable. Feels like a July or August here in the Imperial Capital.
00:52:40.620
Philip Patrick, he's not sweltering here in this seat. He's living large. Short commercial break.
00:52:48.420
The second hour will be as lit as the first. Stick around. You're in the war room.
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