The economy grew 4.3% in Q4, beating the 4.2% estimate by a full percentage point, and on pace for 5% growth in the first half of 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit new all-time highs after the data, and the dollar hit a 2 1/2 month low against the dollar.
00:00:32.420Businesses are investing in spending and the consumer remains strong.
00:00:36.680And just think next, I think, well, next quarter, they'll end up getting an extra $150 billion in refund checks that they can then deploy and spend as well.
00:00:51.300And I've got to say, when I see a GDP of 4.3 percent, I have to believe 5 percent is not far away.
00:00:58.660And that, of course, is what Louis Navalier told us last week, Mark, that we're going to see a 5 percent GDP handle in the first half of the year.
00:01:18.400Well, it's really a fantastic number, and it's a great Christmas present for the American people.
00:01:23.820And, you know, I would say that the headline for me is two things.
00:01:28.560I think the big macro trends that we're seeing in these numbers are, first of all, that President Trump's trade agenda is working.
00:01:36.720And so we got about, you know, one and a half percent of the growth on 4.3 because we reduced the trade deficit.
00:01:42.700And then the other thing that I think, which is a big macro thing that we're seeing, is that the artificial intelligence productivity boom is really clearly in the data.
00:01:52.600And I guess you and I are old enough that we remember back in the 90s when the computer came in that all of a sudden you had like 4 percent quarters all the time, one after the other.
00:02:01.800And it kept surprising people because they thought, oh, you know, computers everywhere, a bit of the productivity data, but we're seeing it in the data and we're seeing the same kind of regular surprises for market participants.
00:02:13.000And so we went back and we looked at every Bloomberg forecast for the main numbers since September and found that on average, we outperformed the forecast 94 percent of the time.
00:02:23.220So if 94 percent of Wall Street economists are getting the macro trends wrong, they need to start to think about, hey, you know, maybe Trump's policies are actually way better than we thought.
00:02:32.480And maybe the fake news that says all these terrible things about Trump policies should reconsider and, you know, grab their pencil and redo their economics.
00:02:40.300Let's get the bond report. Rick Santelli has more on how the markets are reacting to all of these cross currents. Rick, what can you tell us?
00:02:47.500Well, you know, I like the way the charts tell a picture.
00:02:50.100If you look at twos and tens when the number was released, a couple of things should jump out at you.
00:02:54.960The twos definitely seem to be more aggressive in holding the upside.
00:02:59.180I don't think that's for any big reasons to explain the Fed or acknowledge percentages and probabilities.
00:03:06.760I think it's purely the next chart, which is 10 years bucking up against that 419 to 420 resistance.
00:03:13.240That chart goes back nearly two weeks and stopping it there makes perfect sense.
00:03:18.340And if you open the chart up, should we settle above 419 and it doesn't look like we will, that'd be a three and a half month high yield close.
00:03:27.120To me, a bit of the surprise today was the dollar index.
00:03:30.440When the data was released at 830, it definitely turned up.
00:03:33.540It had been moving down, but it really doesn't alter the general picture.
00:03:37.240Any close today below 9814 is a two and a half month low.
00:03:42.380And to answer your question more directly, Kelly, I personally still don't see any path to get to 2%.
00:03:49.200So many could disinflation, especially those that were potential picks for Fed chairs.
00:03:54.880But ultimately, just like anything else in our economy, when the economy gets good, competition for capital gets hot.
00:04:03.440And that's why usually, historically, a good economy may have higher rates, specifically on the long end.
00:21:28.420As far as just the number of people who celebrate Christmas, the number who said they have no religious affiliation but celebrate this year is actually up about four points from last year.
00:21:38.920Which, you know, these things don't happen in huge blocks.
00:21:44.040And I think this, again, I mean, the highlight of this poll every year is that I think church leaders need to remind themselves what their primary focus is.
00:21:54.380Steve, if you're a Christian like you or I am, right, you believe in the eternity of the soul and you believe in salvation, especially if you're a believer in Christ.
00:22:03.900And if you said, if any of these respondents said, yes, I believe that Jesus was the Son of God, then you have a duty to go out and get those people and save them, right?
00:22:14.820I mean, that's what this is all about.
00:22:16.560And not every person takes it as seriously as maybe they should if they're Christians.
00:22:34.660And they need to refocus on what their primary mission is, save souls.
00:22:41.220We had the head of, I've got a clip, I haven't played it yet, of the head of the Catholic bishops.
00:22:47.160And, you know, the Catholic, what, refugee, along with the Lutheran refugee, they're taking money hand over fist on this scam to let these refugees illegally in the country and then skim money off the top.
00:23:29.820What percentage of people are Christians and then what percentage of people are trying to have lived Christianity by regularly attending religious services or being part of a religious community or denomination?
00:24:11.360Anywhere between 10, 15, sometimes it's even 20 points of people who don't want to identify with one of those traditional Christian denominations yet are saying they believe in God.
00:24:32.560And you have the Catholic Church who has never quite recovered from their scandal, right, with children.
00:24:40.500We had that, but also they're not only out of step with Americans on an issue like immigration.
00:24:47.760Real Clear Politics just did the Catholic voter poll, which showed they're out of step with their own congregate – with their own Catholic membership.
00:24:56.500In America, Catholics have always been a bit of a thorn in the side for the pope, right, in the papacy and Vatican.
00:25:01.360But they are overwhelmingly on Donald Trump's side and Republican's side of this issue while their leadership goes on and on about doing your Christian duty.
00:25:10.560Well, how many illegal immigrants has the Vatican taken this year, right?
00:25:14.720Of course, they're worried about preserving the value of their own citizenship and their identity as only 600 and something citizens in the Vatican, right?
00:25:24.980And they don't seem to care because why?
00:25:26.860Because it's money and it's big business.
00:25:28.380And then on the other side of that, on the Protestant side of that, Steve, these people are orphaned because the truth is mainstream and evangelical Protestantism really has not recovered in the eyes of the general public since the Jimmy Swagger and the Hagee scandals.
00:25:45.500They view them as judgmental hypocrites.
00:27:17.660So the way around that and the way – or at least the way to counter that and the way to deal with lower response rates that we've seen as pollsters over the years is to increase your sample.
00:28:14.220Federalizing the National Guard and sending them into places like Chicago to clean out that mess and protect ICE as they do the mass deportations.
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00:33:06.780The Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, has blocked the Trump administration from federalizing and deploying members of the National Guard in Illinois.
00:33:16.280Joining me now, MSNOW Legal Affairs reporter Fallon Gallagher.
00:33:19.560Fallon, what can you tell us about this decision?
00:33:21.240Yeah, Ariel, this is a significant loss for the Trump administration.
00:33:24.020The court had been weighing this bid since October.
00:33:27.000This is one of those cases that came through the emergency docket.
00:33:29.860The Trump administration had asked to allow the deployment and the federalization of the National Guard in Illinois.
00:33:36.140Now, they've been sitting on it for a while, which caused us to speculate.
00:33:39.000Maybe they were waiting to see whether this happened in another city and maybe there was a circuit split.
00:33:43.460But now they've decisively ruled against the Trump administration, saying that he cannot deploy or federalize the National Guard in Illinois.
00:33:50.740And I want to read very briefly from this ruling.
00:33:52.900They say that the government has not carried its burden to show that the statute permits the president to federalize the Guard in the exercise of inherent authority to protect the federal personnel and property in Illinois.
00:34:03.720We need not add and do not address the reviewability of findings made by the president under the statute or any other statute.
00:34:27.260It appears that Barrett and Roberts sided with the liberal justices here.
00:34:31.020But again, this is a massive blow for the Trump administration.
00:34:33.720So just for a second, speak about the possible wider implications of this ruling on the attempts to federalize the National Guard in other places in the country.
00:34:42.660Yeah, the Supreme Court has now set this precedent here that the Trump administration cannot federalize or deploy the National Guard under this specific statute.
00:34:50.500So this is a decisive victory or decisive loss for the Trump administration.
00:34:56.260And maybe they waited until right before Christmas to put this out.
00:35:02.560Tej, I want to go to you first on just using the National Guard and what President Trump has done for law and order and also to protect ICE agents and federal buildings.
00:35:13.680Because, you know, we've shown it all the way from Portland and Seattle to Chicago.
00:35:19.280Just practically, how are we going to get this done if you can't federalize the National Guard and put him in there for support?
00:35:26.200Well, I think he's just going to have to surge more ICE agents to these high-risk areas that they're contested in.
00:35:35.800Yeah, it's definitely not a good decision to come right before Christmas, and especially in a place like Chicago where they need the National Guard.
00:35:45.440They definitely helped the National Guard there.
00:35:47.460So if the Supreme Court's going to block the National Guard, then I think, I don't know if this is legal, but federalizing the National Guard by deputizing them and giving them federal credentials.
00:36:02.300I don't know if that'll work, but if that doesn't, then he's just going to have to surge in ICE agents from other areas until they get this cleaned up.
00:36:09.480And then he's just going to have to shuffle around ICE and Homeland Security agents to reinforce each other in these high-risk areas where they're actually contested by the local gangs and criminals.
00:36:23.280Well, we haven't had time, but we could show Ben Burkwab has got amazing footage.
00:36:28.220And we just, I mean, as soon as the ICE guys come in with the vehicles, they're now totally surrounded by these protesters.
00:36:35.260They've got the whistles, they're banging the gongs, I mean, and the ICE agents, I think, are very, you know, I think almost overly professional sometimes and not getting the crowds out of the way.
00:36:48.560You're kind of having a tough town getting the bad hombres out, those onesies, twosies that we were doing before.
00:36:53.900So this is a huge blow, I think, just practically.
00:36:57.740I think they need to surge some of the uniformed Border Patrol agents off the southern border to these high-risk areas and, you know, bring them in in armored vehicles and in their full uniform and full kit instead of rolling these guys in in civilian vehicles in their, you know, in their civilian clothes.
00:37:17.960I think it's time to bring the armor in, bring full uniform Border Patrol agents in for short periods of time just to clean up these areas and then surge them back to the border and bring them back as needed in high-risk areas where the ICE agents are actually contested.
00:42:38.000Neil McCabe, you were in the government for the first, I think, 10 months or eight months of this second term.
00:42:44.440What would be your recommendation to the president about this situation?
00:42:47.120Well, I think that the, it's my understanding that that, despite what the cold open said, that there is some wiggle room for the government to come back and to better explain itself to the Supreme Court.
00:43:02.860And so I think immediately John Sauer, the solicitor general, who's excellent, he and his team, they've had tremendous success with the Supreme Court.
00:43:12.140I was really surprised it didn't go their way.
00:43:15.100They just need to figure out how to do it and then just go back into the batting cage again and take a swing.
00:43:20.260Because I think the justices, especially the, even the six, even the three who betrayed us, that's supposed to be our six-three majority.
00:43:29.540I think those three understand that if you damage the presidency, no matter how much you might hate or resent or bitter about Trump, if you damage the presidency, then you're really taking the republic apart.
00:43:44.860And it's basically going to break up into pieces.
00:43:47.640And this is something that we were worried about.
00:43:49.820If Trump lost or they certified that Harris was president, I fully expected, you know, the southern, southeastern states, there's going to be like an SEC nation.
00:44:00.360And they would just sort of from Texas to Florida and up to Tennessee, right, they would just sort of leave.
00:44:05.380And I think what we're seeing now with California and Illinois and certainly in Oregon and these other states, these guys are saying, hey, we're not in the federal government anymore.
00:45:08.400They when you make sergeant or lieutenant or you have to, you know, it's the president of the United States and the officers appointed above you.