Bannon's War Room - Episode 5241： In Some Form This War Will Continue In Iran

00:00:00.000 The bridge was in the town of Tyre.

00:00:10.160 Israel's defense minister said that Hezbollah, which is the Iranian-backed militia,

00:00:14.480 was using it to move fighters and weapons into the southern part of the country.

00:00:18.480 This video was released today by U.S. Central Command,

00:00:21.280 saying it showed its forces continue to aggressively strike Iranian military targets

00:00:25.920 with precision munitions.

00:00:27.900 Those were their words.

00:00:28.940 Over the weekend, President Trump suddenly issued an ultimatum on social media threatening Iran with a deadline that would have passed just about 30 minutes ago.

00:00:36.640 Here's what he posted on Saturday at 7.44 p.m.

00:00:39.480 Quote, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time,

00:00:47.500 the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first.

00:00:53.860 Iran's military responded on Sunday that if his threats regarding Iran's power plants are carried out,

00:00:58.700 the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed,

00:01:01.240 and that all Israeli energy and communications infrastructure will be targeted,

00:01:04.920 as well as, quote, similar companies in the region with U.S. shareholders.

00:01:09.380 Then, this morning, the president posted this, quote,

00:01:12.520 I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran

00:01:16.180 have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations

00:01:19.980 regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.

00:01:25.120 He went on to say, quote,

00:01:26.360 I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes

00:01:30.360 against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period,

00:01:35.080 subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.

00:01:38.880 For its part, Iran denied such talks had happened,

00:01:41.780 and the Speaker of Iran's parliament even borrowed a page from the president's own playbook,

00:01:46.260 calling it fake news.

00:01:47.480 Well, the Iraq war, as we learned some of it in real time and certainly since then, was based on a lie, on an exaggeration.

00:01:56.320 But the Bush administration was very serious about it.

00:02:00.160 They put together an enormous effort worldwide, brought together 40 countries in a global coalition,

00:02:07.140 stayed on message, on a single message throughout.

00:02:10.460 It was about WMD and about bringing democracy to the Middle East.

00:02:14.220 And they did not vary from those messages.

00:02:17.480 This war is there's so many things that are made up that seem on the fly by the seat of the president's pants that it's hard to get a sense of what the purpose is, what the end goal looks like.

00:02:34.240 There's been no communication that's consistent that explains the theory of the case.

00:02:47.480 Why send 2,200 Marines from Japan?

00:02:56.520 Why send 2,200 Marines from California?

00:02:58.960 That's a very good question.

00:03:01.260 I think that they're probably talking about a ground operation at Karg Island.

00:03:06.540 There might also be a ground operation at one of the islands in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:03:10.340 The problem with Karg Island is it's a long ways away from the Strait.

00:03:13.460 The director is over here shaking his head just now.

00:03:15.660 I mean, no, I totally agree.

00:03:17.860 It would be absolutely ludicrous to do this.

00:03:20.820 But because that's what a new American life.

00:03:23.440 You put boots on the ground.

00:03:25.420 Sure, they're going to be able to take Cargill Island, let's say, fairly easily, probably in about a week or so, something like that.

00:03:30.500 And they have 2,200 with an aviation component, so they can probably control that ground and seize that terrain pretty easily.

00:03:38.140 But now they're going to be sitting 20 miles off the coast of Iran, and they're just a big target.

00:03:43.060 Think about all the missiles that are going to be fired, all the drones that are going to come over.

00:03:47.760 Think about the political implications of having American soldiers, sailors, airmen, marines killed on Iranian sovereign territory.

00:03:57.420 Think about what that would that kind of message would send to the entire world and to the Iranian people.

00:04:02.000 You know, these are tough, resilient people. They are not going to take this very, very lightly.

00:04:05.920 But, General, isn't Iran's potential control of the state of Hormuz, wasn't that the most obvious card they had to play here?

00:04:12.940 Why is it that it seems that the U.S. was not prepared for this?

00:04:17.060 Well, Adrian, we actually were prepared for it.

00:04:19.000 I don't know where this narrative came out that it was a big surprise.

00:04:21.900 I mean, you know, we do an annual exercise with up to 30 countries about the closure of the state of Hormuz and how to reopen it.

00:04:30.360 And so what you're seeing in the campaign now, and I think this is really important to understand,

00:04:34.660 is a continuation of the combined force of U.S. and Israel prioritizing the missile and the drone

00:04:43.520 capabilities, including their manufacturing capabilities, including their ability to

00:04:48.380 reconstitute their missiles and drones with support from Russia and China. There are a

00:04:53.320 couple of ships sailing right now with solid fuel from China. I don't think they're going to make it

00:04:57.440 to Iran. And you saw the IDF in the last 24, 48 hours striking ships in the Caspian Sea,

00:05:04.260 in the far north of Iran because Russia was smuggling drones into Iran to reconstitute

00:05:11.220 their capabilities.

00:05:12.780 The president clearly thinks you do negotiations by press release or by tweet.

00:05:19.480 That's not how negotiations are done.

00:05:21.840 They can't be done as a drive-by.

00:05:24.060 This is very serious.

00:05:25.440 This is war.

00:05:26.960 I do hope that there are talks that take place.

00:05:30.620 I don't think there's any chance at all that 15 points of agreement have come to pass at this point.

00:05:39.580 The very most one could get in five days are very, very broad parameters.

00:05:45.420 This is a highly technical negotiation.

00:05:48.560 And one of the things we've seen time and time again is that this administration doesn't really recognize expertise or respect expertise.

00:05:57.900 and they're going to need some people at the table

00:06:00.300 even if it's Vice President Vance

00:06:02.040 who actually know

00:06:03.760 what they're talking about.

00:06:19.200 Allahu Akbar!

00:06:25.020 Hello, who did it?

00:06:27.900 Let me bring you into the White House thinking in this moment and how they are viewing this.

00:06:34.940 To Hagar's point, they are not looking at opposition back transition right now.

00:06:40.160 They are not looking to bring in an outsider.

00:06:42.340 In fact, officials I spoke to told me Reza Pahlavi, the exiled prince, that some people are looking to as a potential leader.

00:06:48.460 That is not on the table for somebody that the U.S. would back.

00:06:51.960 Instead, they are looking right now at the Speaker of Parliament as a potential partner for the United States and possibly a leader that the United States could work with.

00:07:02.120 Now, he is you talked about the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard.

00:07:06.340 He's a former IRGC commander.

00:07:08.460 He is a power broker and he is not a moderate necessarily, again, to Hagar's point.

00:07:14.360 But this is somebody that the United States believes might be someone on the inside that could potentially have a pragmatic streak and be willing to make a deal with the United States.

00:07:26.960 Let's not understate the fact that the conventional Iranian military strength has been greatly weakened.

00:07:36.200 Their planes have been blown up, their ships have been blown up.

00:07:40.720 But conventional military strength has not been the core of the menace that Iran represents in the region and to the wider world.

00:07:50.180 It's always been about unexpected asymmetric capabilities, those drones that do so much damage, sleeper cells all over the world.

00:08:01.460 They're proxy militias, the Houthis, the Hezbollah and people like that.

00:08:05.680 And these are only the ones we know about.

00:08:08.040 This is a regime that for 50 years, every day, this regime, the people at the highest levels of this regime have been absolutely convinced that sooner or later, America is going to come for them.

00:08:19.600 So they've been preparing for 50 years.

00:08:21.660 They've always known that they were never going to be able to stand up against the greatest military in the world.

00:08:26.520 And so they've been making plans precisely for that.

00:08:29.860 So to say that we've blown up every one of their ships, those ships are not the real threat.

00:08:35.080 Without any ships, they've still managed to block the Straits of Hormuz and essentially put a chokehold on the global economy.

00:08:41.940 That's the nature of the regime we are dealing with.

00:08:44.380 These are very serious people.

00:08:46.040 They're seriously bad people, but they are very serious people.

00:08:48.320 And they're fighting for their lives.

00:08:49.640 They're fighting for their existence.

00:08:51.620 Yeah.

00:08:51.940 They know that if they lose this war, their biggest problem will not be American bombs from the air.

00:08:58.260 Their biggest problem will be their own citizens will be hanging them from lampposts in Tehran.

00:09:04.140 You know, they've done so much damage to their own country and their own people for so long that there's a lot of resentment built up there.

00:09:10.380 They can't afford to show any weakness.

00:09:12.320 Back to tonight's breaking news.

00:09:13.800 the Wall Street Journal reporting thousands of U.S. Marines are slated to arrive in the Middle

00:09:18.480 East on Friday, according to two U.S. officials, the day President Trump has set as the deadline

00:09:24.040 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As the U.S. builds up its presence in the region,

00:09:29.520 Donald Trump has been sending mixed messages over his war of choice that included a vow to

00:09:35.100 obliterate Iran's power plants, to later insisting, without providing any details,

00:09:39.940 that productive conversations to end the war were underway, something that Iran has denied.

00:09:48.100 It's Tuesday, 24 March, Year of Our Lord, 2026.

00:09:51.780 What President Trump committed to yesterday, and we talked about having various conversations

00:09:57.400 where people were actually conversation one, they were going down a punch list,

00:10:00.260 they got 15 items agreed to.

00:10:03.500 He did not, as we mentioned on the show, he said he would not, he would hold off

00:10:08.100 on the bombing of the energy and infrastructure he did not say the CENTCOM war of defanging and

00:10:14.380 declawing the methodical takedown of the conventional military forces of the Iranian

00:10:19.720 government would stop and of course overnight another horrific night of giving as good as

00:10:27.200 they got they actually got they shelled Tel Aviv there's and of course the Israelis hit them hard

00:10:34.040 The Americans hit them hard on the conventional military side.

00:10:38.520 There are the White House talking about having discussions.

00:10:42.680 There are a couple of different, I think, streams on this.

00:10:45.360 One is with potentially through Pakistan's field marshal.

00:10:50.960 I think it's Murin, who is very close to President Trump.

00:10:54.600 He's been in the Oval Office.

00:10:56.120 He's had lunch with the president.

00:10:57.460 President Trump thinks very highly of him.

00:10:59.600 This is one of the ones they're talking about doing it with the Speaker of the House,

00:11:03.900 which is still part of the junta of the kind of the Mullah, Ayatollah, Islamic theocrat clique.

00:11:13.900 There's other discussions about Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff might be discussing with people.

00:11:19.240 Erdogan, the Turks may be involved in that.

00:11:21.920 Let's say this.

00:11:22.500 There's also a collection of foreign ministers of Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and Bahrain and UAE.

00:11:30.980 They're also having discussions.

00:11:32.820 A lot of people are trying to figure out how this war winds down, but the underlying military aspect of this continues on overnight.

00:11:44.280 CENCOM going through, like I said, their methodical defanging, declawing program.

00:11:49.020 Also, two Marine amphibious ready groups or Marine expeditionary units, one on the USS Tripoli coming for about 2,500 Marines coming from Japan, I think a couple of days away.

00:12:04.600 also the uss boxer from san diego about 2200 marines that would give us about approximately

00:12:10.720 i don't know 5 000 marine amphibious assault forces with complete uh helicopter and uh and

00:12:18.280 the other the osprey aircraft that can be both uh helicopter and also conventional uh in addition to

00:12:26.860 all the assets we have in there my understanding is a tremendous amount of support aircraft

00:12:32.580 80 second airborne may be on alert so other as negotiations going on president trump is not

00:12:38.820 giving up any of his military leverage in fact i would say that that leverage and the applicability

00:12:44.340 the sharp end of the spear actually from a non-air uh aspect is coming to around the north

00:12:53.520 arabian sea in the gulf of oman that would either take karg island and or you know some of the uh

00:13:00.740 right around the Strait of Hormuz, where they've had this 5,000-pound bunker-busting bomb B-2

00:13:06.920 runs, might even do an amphibious assault there to take and hold that and make sure those missiles

00:13:13.380 and drones, et cetera, are taken care of. So an increasingly complex military operation continues

00:13:20.520 on with more aspects coming. At the same time, various discussions. I mean, the president's been

00:13:25.840 pretty clear his military objectives uh he's also said hey the Strait of Hormuz has got to be open

00:13:31.520 I think it's becoming more and more evident every day that our quote-unquote allies particularly in

00:13:37.580 Europe and NATO are just not up to the task it's more it's this is kind of more happy talk than

00:13:42.700 they gave in Ukraine about what type of military and naval assets uh they would give to keep the

00:13:48.100 Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf open for free navigation also don't forget the Gate of

00:13:53.100 tears down at the red sea right off of yemen where the houthis uh essentially control or if

00:14:00.500 they get involved which they have not they've held back would uh would be another aspect that

00:14:05.440 you would have to keep that open to make sure you get to the to the suez canal increasingly complex

00:14:11.300 geopolitically complex militarily president trump the ultimate deal maker thinking through his

00:14:17.540 options keeping a lot of irons in the fire also i think he may be keeping the iranian

00:14:21.720 the Iranian establishment of the IRGC on their back foot.

00:14:30.440 Of course, the Iranians, I think they look at the Americans and say,

00:14:33.240 hey, these guys are bringing in the Marines.

00:14:35.120 Can we really cut a deal here?

00:14:36.320 Are they just buying time?

00:14:37.420 All the complexity.

00:14:38.520 We've got Kurt Mills, American Conservative.

00:14:41.300 We also have Eric Bolland is going to talk about some markets.

00:14:44.580 We're also going to pivot to get some political news

00:14:46.820 here in the good old United States of America.

00:14:49.360 Some good news out there in a big battle down in Georgia.

00:14:53.800 Also, is America driving off a fiscal cliff?

00:14:57.820 We'll talk all about that first later.

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00:16:25.140 Good morning. Ambassador Crowley, Ambassador Waltz, Secretary McMahon, Deputy Secretary

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00:22:44.340 Thank you.

00:22:50.440 First Lady of the United States at the State Department this morning, just moments ago,

00:22:54.340 uh kurt mills uh i laid out after the cold open by the way another brilliant job by the war room

00:23:01.200 production team and a real american voice a team in denver want to thank everybody for doing that

00:23:06.880 i think i want to string all those together on every day of the war and um kind of just lay it

00:23:11.980 out i think it lays out the entire war just incredible kurt uh multiple streams of negotiation

00:23:18.140 right uh you've got foreign ministers meeting in riad of the major arab nations you've got some

00:23:25.340 sort of path maybe with turkey and uh with um steve whitkoff and jerry cushion although they're

00:23:32.120 being accused of being israeli agents by certain members of the iranian regime you've got the

00:23:37.680 field marshal in pakistan who's quite close to president trump uh and there you may have the

00:23:42.260 there you may have their speaker of the house looks like a lot of irons in the fire but as i

00:23:46.820 said yesterday when president trump said hey we're not going to hit the energy in the um in the oil

00:23:52.380 infrastructure he did he specifically didn't say i'm gonna call off centcom another uh big night

00:23:58.320 last night on the on the actual kinetic side put this in perspective for sir where are we this

00:24:04.040 morning yeah so obviously the starting gun on the week was uh shot so to speak by the president's

00:24:10.860 attempt to calm the markets by saying that he was not going to basically see through his ultimatum

00:24:17.760 to the Iranians. And from there, it's sort of a guessing game. It's very clear that the White

00:24:24.440 House wants to talk with Iran. What's less clear is if it's going on and with whom they are

00:24:30.220 speaking. The reality of the Iranian government at this point is that they have effectively a junta

00:24:36.640 around Moshtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, whatever Moshtaba Khamenei's status and health,

00:24:43.680 there's rumors flurry about potentially lost a leg, et cetera, et cetera. What matters is that

00:24:50.100 there are eight to nine decision makers within Tehran that DC would have to deal with. And so

00:24:56.460 if Trump wants to deal, he's got to figure out who to extend it to. There's also reports,

00:25:01.320 again, South Asian reports, so not exactly the, let's say, Anglo-American commitment to the truth

00:25:08.880 in that part of the world journalistically. There are reports of a potential VP meeting with the

00:25:13.820 Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Gala Baif. I think that actually would be a very generative

00:25:20.220 idea, something that I think that would be a useful maneuver by the administration. I think,

00:25:26.040 frankly, at this point, at this juncture, a good change, Kushner and Wyckoff are seen as

00:25:30.520 as agents of israel effectively as you uh as you allude to for better or worse

00:25:35.860 why that's because that's because steve and jared were working on the the main negotiation

00:25:44.220 when it was broken off and the attack took place so the iranians are sitting there going we can't

00:25:48.460 trust those guys because we didn't get a heads up we thought we were in negotiations with this

00:25:53.340 look it's going on on both sides i mean i saw over the weekend in axios and barack ravid

00:25:58.100 You know, the Americans are on background calling, you know, the Iranian foreign minister Arachi a fax machine.

00:26:04.520 So, like, everybody's angry at everybody about who to talk to.

00:26:07.900 I think the reality, though, is that Wyckoff has handled this portfolio for over a year and we don't have a deal.

00:26:13.340 And Kushner is obviously seen as very tight with Netanyahu.

00:26:16.700 The reality here is that this war is not going to end until President Trump says no to Israel.

00:26:23.140 If he's unwilling to do that or unable to do that, this war will continue in some form.

00:26:28.100 Or at least at worst, there will be a pause and we're just going to go back in in the summer.

00:26:33.020 And I think that's a catastrophe.

00:26:35.620 Look, there's a breaking news that the Pakistanis have offered to host some sort of talks.

00:26:41.840 You've got the foreign ministers all meeting in Saudi Arabia, of Kuwait and UAE, Saudi and Egypt.

00:26:47.600 You've got the Turks.

00:26:48.520 Erdogan is making moves to say he wants to be helpful somehow.

00:26:51.820 Now, the entire region, it looks like, Kurt, says, hey, we've had enough of this already, and as bad as these guys are, somehow we'll figure this out.

00:27:00.980 I mean, that is part of the pressure that's come to the White House.

00:27:03.840 Also, remember, we're going to bowling on here, join Kurt in a moment.

00:27:07.620 Even with the Iranians, and we've done some back-of-the-envelope math, everybody in that region is incentivized, at least to date, to get the price of oil and gas up.

00:27:17.940 they're calling force majeure the qataris the iraqis force majeure on these contracts

00:27:22.900 the iranians you know oil at 140 bucks is a lot better than president trump's full

00:27:29.440 uh spectrum energy dominance for where it's got a four handle in front of it right that's not

00:27:35.400 when they're lifting costs is i think 20 bucks now uh they want to they want a five bagger every

00:27:41.120 time they pull a barrel out anyway kurt hang on for one second uh birch gold take your phone at

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00:28:12.980 break. Kurt Mills

00:28:14.800 is going to join Eric Bolling on the other side.

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00:29:36.500 room here's your host stephen k bann i'm gonna get back to kurt in a second about these negotiations

00:29:45.340 um eric bowling two reports that just kind of popped the the the theoretical uh force majeure

00:29:53.380 of the qataris i understand now i'm reading that they have actually invoked force majeure which

00:29:58.860 means kind of act of war of act of god on uh on lng long-term contracts for lng supplies disrupting

00:30:06.280 deliveries to italy belgium south korea and china also breaking news from the financial times of

00:30:14.220 london that says 580 million dollars of oil trades happen moments before a minutes before president

00:30:22.400 trump made his announcement on the talks yesterday let's take the first uh event first the iraqis

00:30:28.460 have already called force majeure on some of their contracts here here's one of the issues is that

00:30:33.580 Everybody over there, including the Iranians, the Saudis, the Kuwaitis, the Qataris, they're all incentivized to have these higher prices, call force majeure, negate the contracts they sold when President Trump was full on with full spectrum energy dominance, and reap a massive reward for this war that America is underwriting with our taxpayer money and our troops, sir.

00:31:03.580 So, yeah, Steve, remember we talked about these force majeures that would likely be popping up because you don't want to make a commitment.

00:31:11.680 You've made a commitment at $55 or $60 a barrel or the equivalent if it's LNG.

00:31:17.120 And then the legal loophole that you can work your way through is force majeure, which is an act of God, act of nature or war.

00:31:25.380 And so they figured out this is a good opportunity.

00:31:27.480 you have some of the people that we don't maybe respect as much that they're doing business with

00:31:32.480 they'll they'll declare force majeure and double the price that they're gonna they're gonna get

00:31:36.120 for it no question about that i we talked qatar had already insinuated that he may do it now they

00:31:43.060 looks like they have done it we knew the kuwaitis did it with refined products about a week ago but

00:31:48.100 when they did that steve we were on air i think when it happened and i said look expect a lot more

00:31:52.860 of this. And I think you will see a lot more of it because whether it, this doesn't look like it's

00:31:59.060 ending anytime soon. So this all clear that we kind of felt was, or people were saying was

00:32:03.900 happening yesterday. You know, you and I talked about it on Rav, my show into yours, it likely

00:32:09.060 wasn't over yet. The Conoco CEO, Chevron CEO, I'm sorry, said, we got a lot more upside here and

00:32:16.640 people aren't realizing how dangerous this is. You know, you can call this a war dividend for

00:32:23.060 these Middle Eastern countries. All right. So, yes, Iran is going to get hit. They're going to

00:32:27.380 get hit hard. They'll continue to get hit hard. But do the math. They produce 3 million barrels

00:32:32.160 per day. They're probably going to push oil prices around $120 a barrel. Steve, it lasts 60 days

00:32:40.080 only. I mean, this could last a lot longer, 60 days only. And we've handed Iran a war dividend

00:32:46.560 of over $21 billion. So everyone looks at it, like count intuitively, you have to look at it

00:32:54.000 because everyone looks at war in Iran, we're hitting them, we're degrading them, but we're

00:32:58.180 also handing them a bank account to rebuild and rebuild the way they want. That's why I believe

00:33:03.340 the deal a deal needs to be made needs to be made fairly quickly with a with tight parameters

00:33:08.220 as far as the just hang hang hang on hang on hang on hang on slow down just quickly walk people

00:33:15.520 through math on that with the uh now iran's got cash flow problems they can't get their stuff out

00:33:20.680 people talking about sending the marines into to secure karg island which would cut them off from

00:33:24.900 the world at least their ability to get it out uh get it and monetize it but just walk through the

00:33:30.120 basic math of what they reserve one of the issues in the middle east particularly with president

00:33:34.960 trump's full spectrum energy dominance is that they look at this as a wasting asset and you know

00:33:41.200 they hate selling it when they're lifting costs i don't know around 20 it used to be five i think

00:33:45.620 somebody said it's 20 bucks a barrel let's assume that that was me that was me it was five it was

00:33:50.360 five dollars a barrel it was five dollars a barrel to lift it you know 30 40 years ago sand just pull

00:33:56.440 it right out. It pushes $30 a barrel now, maybe even a little bit higher. So at 55, they're not

00:34:02.600 making a massive, well, they're making good profit, they're not making a massive profit to fund their

00:34:07.980 economy, because this really is petrodollars that fund most of those Middle Eastern countries'

00:34:12.760 economies. At $120 a barrel, you're talking insane number. Here, I'll do the math for you.

00:34:17.380 Three million barrels a day Iran produces right now. And that's down from seven or eight, which

00:34:22.120 they have in the past, which means if they want to ramp it up, it could be a lot more.

00:34:25.600 So just the 3 million barrels a day, which they were producing prior to the war, $120 a barrel, that's $360 million petrodollars per day.

00:34:36.220 Give it 60 days, and you're talking $21.6 billion petrodollars right into the Iranian coffers.

00:34:45.640 Talk to us about the futures market.

00:34:47.640 The Chevron CEO came out yesterday and said, hey, I can see it going to $170.

00:34:51.380 bucks but he says i don't think this goes below a hundred dollars until 2027 what's the futures

00:34:58.020 market telling us right now of what because the the oil and gas market is one that's got a lot

00:35:03.360 of information out there clearly there's somebody had some information before president trump

00:35:08.040 came out and made that statement i'm sure that's going to be investigated 580 million dollars of

00:35:12.720 trades minutes before that quite frankly the kind of shock announcement that said hey we're looking

00:35:18.140 to uh looking to talk to somebody because we've degraded their military so much it's time to uh

00:35:23.480 time to move on uh what are the future markets telling us right now about what they think about

00:35:28.400 the possibility of these negotiations because kurt said hey look this is not particularly easy

00:35:33.020 they don't really trust us they're they're backed into a corner they're either a rabbit

00:35:37.620 dog or rabbit rat or a uh or grizzly right they know that if uh if their people turn on them

00:35:44.840 they're done so they're going to fight to the end it's not easy president trump's a master deal

00:35:49.600 maker but it ain't easy when you really don't have anybody totally in charge to negotiate with

00:35:54.280 so are the market is that incorporated into the markets right now it is in the way the futures

00:35:59.980 market works in the oil is you can take delivery you can buy delivery going forward and i looked

00:36:05.680 at it yesterday or i'll look again but it's it's within striking range of an 80 a barrel about

00:36:12.100 10 months down the road. So into 2027, right at 2027, you're looking at $80 a barrel. If everything

00:36:19.380 stayed the same right now, we're talking $92, $93 a barrel now, if it goes higher, those back

00:36:25.440 months, those future delivery months will continue to raise with it. But right now, the futures

00:36:31.280 aren't saying that's going to last, you know, six, eight, 10 months, and they've priced in a lower

00:36:37.580 oil price going forward um so the the belief right now is this is a a now event and that trump could

00:36:46.360 ramp up production ramp up ways to bring oil prices down and he can and he will when he's done

00:36:52.280 but steve we've been saying this like i hate to say we've been saying but we have it depends how

00:36:57.340 high it goes and how long it stays there how quickly he's very sophisticated yeah but yeah

00:37:03.920 But these very sophisticated markets with tons of trading about people trying to hedge the future, not just speculators, they're telling us that they believe right now President Trump will not just get some military accomplishment, but will bring some sort of peace or get some sort of deal that will get back to normal, that it won't be 120, won't be 150, it'll be 80, which is obviously a lot higher than the 55, I think, that we had when Bibi went to Mar-a-Lago in December, right?

00:37:32.340 But it's not the end of the world, correct?

00:37:35.260 Correct, correct.

00:37:35.920 And that will adjust itself.

00:37:37.440 Well, it's based a lot on Front Month as well.

00:37:40.220 But the point is it's not $200 a barrel a year from now.

00:37:44.520 They're believing $80 a barrel a year from now.

00:37:46.660 These are traders.

00:37:47.500 And when I say traders, I don't mean speculators everyone loves to hate.

00:37:50.980 I'm talking about the people like the ConocoPhillips head trader that I spoke to who had similar assessment of the situation that the Chevron CEO who came out yesterday saying.

00:38:01.900 So they're looking for higher prices going forward, which will pull up that 10-, 11-, 12-month oil price will pull it up higher as well.

00:38:11.000 Again, that's why I keep saying it matters how high it goes and how long it stays there because people are smart enough to realize it takes time to ramp up production, to get deliveries flowing quickly, and to ramp up your own, let's call it counter high prices policy here in the United States.

00:38:30.020 I'm sure Trump will throw everything, including the kitchen sink at it, but that takes time.

00:38:35.400 Unfortunately, the worst fallout of all of this is Middle Eastern countries who frankly hate us, even though they pretend to be our allies.

00:38:44.000 Their coffers, their war coffers, their anti-West coffers are getting filled the longer we play this game.

00:38:50.160 And it really has become a game because you can get in, get out, make your deal and cut a strong deal going forward a lot quicker than we're doing it right now.

00:39:02.300 Hang on one second.

00:39:03.700 Kurt, let's go back to the negotiations.

00:39:06.140 I mean, one of the issues is who's actually got stroke over there?

00:39:11.620 Who can you actually make it?

00:39:12.540 Who can you actually negotiate with that can deliver it?

00:39:15.020 Like I said, there's a lot of different things going on.

00:39:16.860 A lot of Arab nations are jumping in this.

00:39:18.460 They're all volunteering to host something.

00:39:20.160 uh president trump in in the search for alternatives wants to make sure this is

00:39:25.760 meaningful he's saying the guys and it looks like that was the pakistani with the with the

00:39:30.400 speaker of the house he already said hey we've got general agreement on a 15 at least 15 points

00:39:35.940 of you know 20 or 25 your thoughts about that because it's pretty obvious i think a lot of

00:39:41.900 the iranians say hey look the americans and the israelis just got another you know this another

00:39:47.400 delay tactic until they get the marines in so they can bring combat troops in to seize

00:39:52.200 our ability to monetize anything sir yeah i suppose i mean my basic cut uh is that they're

00:40:00.800 going to have to deal with the iranians the way that the iranians are going to insist on dealing

00:40:05.980 with it i mean the the raw reality is not that much has changed and so some of the circulated

00:40:12.080 proposals um from the administration that have been leaked to places like axios um are the same

00:40:17.280 set of demands, zero enrichment, no ballistic missiles. These are things that the regime

00:40:23.060 would rather fight and die over than concede. If they have an actual olive branch to the

00:40:30.180 Iranians that will be a better deal than Obama, JCPOA, they can end this war. But it involves

00:40:36.040 saying no to the Israelis. As far as who they should deal with, I mean, look, they're going

00:40:41.640 to send out Arachi, the foreign minister. Arachi is an ambitious figure. I think he wants to be

00:40:47.380 the next president of Iran, as has been reported this week in the journal by Lawrence Norman and

00:40:51.600 others. You know, that's who you have to deal with, as opposed to trying to find someone in

00:40:55.800 the junta to deal with. I mean, the reality is a lot of these people don't speak English.

00:41:00.960 You know, I don't think the administration should try to circumvent the Iranian process,

00:41:05.060 frankly. If they have a serious offer to end this war, they should extend it. If they don't,

00:41:09.940 they should come home i mean to an extent negotiations themselves may be provocative

00:41:13.940 if the if president trump just declares victory we took out the supreme leader and announces that

00:41:19.560 we are withdrawing i think that can cool tensions it won't uh satisfy our partners quote unquote in

00:41:25.120 israel but this war is not ending until the president says no to netanyahu the um another

00:41:34.660 aspect and this is what trita keeps saying on it when he's posting on on twitter that the uh the

00:41:41.400 iranians also besides all those kind of military aspects they're insisting upon sanctions relief

00:41:46.680 and the reasons they've got to get sanctions relief without sanctions relief without sanctions

00:41:50.700 relief they they are absolutely no cash is that a going to be a central part of this uh negotiation

00:41:57.320 because i don't see how president trump gives them relief on sanctions right because sanctions

00:42:01.300 They've brought them to their knees and made them as weak as possible.

00:42:04.620 Go ahead, sir.

00:42:05.100 They've already given them sanctions relief, right?

00:42:07.020 To get more oil onto the market for loosening the sanctions in order to bomb them, right?

00:42:12.560 I mean, it's Dr. Strangelove stuff, right?

00:42:15.620 Yeah.

00:42:15.900 So, I mean, I think we've already created the precedent.

00:42:19.240 Sorry.

00:42:20.220 We've already created the precedent, right?

00:42:23.440 So I think that the cost, yeah.

00:42:28.080 how sir is president said i can get this done in five days is the iran are the iranians sitting

00:42:34.600 there going trump is as smart as they get what he wants is his two marine amphibia his two marine

00:42:40.240 expeditionary units to show up then he's got 5 000 combat troops the 82nd airborne he can take

00:42:46.140 the coast down by hormuz he can get rid of the those are kind of arabs not even persians down

00:42:50.940 there he can get rid of those guys he can take karg island cut us off from everything and then

00:42:55.560 we're toast do you think that's going through their mind that they understand that i tell you

00:43:00.460 what stick to the break i want to get to this on the other side now more than ever i think it's

00:43:05.080 important for you to talk to the folks at birch gold we're in a world of turbulence

00:43:09.420 the cuttery energy minister just said moments ago that if this war is not wrapped up by the end of

00:43:16.980 the week all exports out of the persian gulf of energy in all of its forms will cease of course

00:43:24.800 The Qataris are great at playing both sides against the metal.

00:43:29.740 It's one of the treacherous aspects of this war in the Gulf.

00:43:32.900 Short commercial break.

00:43:34.440 Birch Gold, talk to Philip Patrick.

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00:45:09.680 Here's your host, Stephen K. Mann.

00:45:15.500 Okay, guys, thank you for doing this this morning again.

00:45:19.220 to keep this audience ahead of the curve as you guys do days ahead of the curve uh eric i'm gonna

00:45:24.620 let you go but like i said qatar uh energy minister just warned that this war will force all gulf

00:45:32.440 all gulf nations to stop energy exports within days now um i assume he's even talking about the

00:45:41.180 five million barrels a day going from saudi arabia through the pipeline into the uh to the red sea

00:45:46.580 outlet but uh it's kind of general but that's a pretty stark warning for president trump to deal

00:45:50.660 with well indeed and um because we know that the iranians will do whatever it takes to keep

00:45:57.700 keep it going and they're they're getting a war dividend based on these what's happening so far

00:46:03.220 we're seeing oil prices double more than double now of course and and like we said cbd these

00:46:08.480 middle eastern countries who claim to be our friends saudi qatar i mean really katar has been

00:46:12.820 all over the board with, as far as terrorism and friendly to the United States, all over

00:46:17.720 the board, they're not, they're not our friends.

00:46:20.200 They're, they're interested in the, they would love to see a $200 price tag for oil and any

00:46:24.300 force majeures they can do in any online production that they can pull offline because of some

00:46:28.940 sort of attack on an infrastructure somewhere, they'll do it and they'll be slow to pull

00:46:34.460 it back up.

00:46:34.900 I'm not sure a hundred percent halt is possible, but a 50% halt would drive prices to $300

00:46:40.520 a barrel, $10 a gallon of gasoline.

00:46:42.360 that they have they have they've got america's achilles by in their hand right now and i've see

00:46:49.440 it you've seen it and i'm just not sure why anyone else isn't seeing it right now that

00:46:54.080 let's get the hell out of there let's cut up the international deal let's that's got teeth

00:46:58.980 and let's get the hell out of the middle east and let them let them blow each other up instead of

00:47:03.860 like they used to do instead of us uh where do people go to get your uh to get all your content

00:47:11.420 sir well at eric bowling across social media the edge on on youtube is a new show that we're doing

00:47:17.240 but steve you guys your audience is amazing you jump on every time we come on but the the biggest

00:47:22.820 plus for me is when we do the four o'clock at rav into your five o'clock show that's where you're

00:47:28.060 really going to get you're getting a lot of you're getting a lot of opinion you're getting a lot of

00:47:31.120 markets you're going to understand a lot about the oil markets and the effect on the economy

00:47:35.040 for and then you just get the geopolitics like nobody's business at five so i think people are

00:47:40.520 pretty well serviced between 4 and 6 p.m. every day on RAV.

00:47:48.180 Thank you. Thank you, brother. Thank you for coming on and doing the morning show. I know

00:47:51.220 you guys are busy. Thank you, sir. Kurt, you've done a good job of framing this so people can

00:47:57.420 understand how things develop. So give us your best shot here, President Trump, day two of his

00:48:03.360 trying to look through various alternatives where you have a cornered enemy that is experts in

00:48:10.060 asymmetric warfare and they're sitting there going hey the marines are heading here and once he's got

00:48:15.600 the marines uh you know maybe the 82nd airborne he's got another error in the quiver uh in addition

00:48:23.200 to how we're getting getting hammered every night your thoughts sir he is going to be the subject

00:48:30.820 of a pressure campaign led by the israelis and their allies in the united states to quote finish

00:48:36.180 the job. These are the same people that would say that the U.S. didn't stay in Vietnam long enough

00:48:41.760 and that the only problem with the Iraq war is that we didn't stay longer. The only problem of

00:48:46.560 Afghanistan is that we didn't stay longer. You see it playing out in the op-ed pages of the

00:48:51.040 Wall Street Journal. You see it on Fox News. You see it in anything that's part of the Rupert Murdoch

00:48:56.220 empire. They are going to drive Trump to try to do a larger war. Okay. Hang on. Hang on. When they

00:49:05.620 when they say finish the job right because you've seen what the president said and he's been very

00:49:10.780 vocal in the last 24 hours while he's going to memphis on the tarmac i mean that is trump in deal

00:49:16.480 mode when you say finish that when they come to him and say finish the job put some substance on

00:49:22.420 that what what are what do they mean what are they telling him to finish the job because there's got

00:49:26.240 to be some specifics there for him he goes back and says hey look i laid out and remember the

00:49:33.120 White House made a big pivot yesterday. They said, we no longer refer to this as a war. We

00:49:37.700 always refer to this as a military operation. The CENTCOM, Admiral Cooper and the chairman of the

00:49:43.540 Joint Chiefs, his senior military advisor, have been very specific about the military objectives

00:49:49.260 of the military operation. And if you talk to President Trump right now, you call him, he said,

00:49:54.660 hey, look, Navy's gone. Air Force is gone. Air defense is essentially gone. I'm taking care of

00:49:59.860 the industrial capacity. I'm not touching, as I told him, I'm not going to touch the energy

00:50:05.400 infrastructure. I'm not going to touch the grid as much as we can avoid it. So when others come

00:50:12.060 to him, and clearly the Israelis have a broader war that they're fighting. We just heard McMaster

00:50:16.680 say they took out a couple of Russian ships or hit Russian ships in the Caspian Sea that were

00:50:22.600 supposedly bringing drones in to help the Revolutionary Guard, and they're now

00:50:29.540 you know commencing looks like a major combined arms both air and land campaign in against the

00:50:36.720 proxies of hezbollah in southern lebanon but when somebody calls him up and says hey look you you

00:50:41.280 don't don't listen all this stuff don't listen to oil market finish the job what does finish the job

00:50:45.740 mean they want regime change whatever it takes i mean and the the allies who support this and

00:50:54.280 trump's allies who support this can call whatever they want i saw that hewitt with tom cotton

00:50:58.880 yesterday called the iraq war a battle he called the gulf war a battle so i'm not really sure he's

00:51:04.240 being served by the advice he's getting the american people are gonna are gonna conclude

00:51:08.860 rightly that this is a war and i think that if president trump doesn't want his entire legacy

00:51:13.920 to be about nation building and cleaning up the mess that the israelis want in iran he should

00:51:19.360 declare victory and come home kurt mills where do people go you're the uh you're you're in the

00:51:26.580 lineage of Pat Buchanan. You're the editor-in-chief of his beloved newspaper magazine website,

00:51:34.480 American Conservative. Where'd they go? AmericanConservative.com. As mentioned,

00:51:39.280 it was founded by Pat and others in 2002 against the Iraq War. We are covering this wire-to-wire

00:51:45.240 and we are doing our best to contain the damage of this Iran war. Thank you.

00:51:51.420 Okay, listen up, Kirk. Hugh Hewitt said it's the Iraq battle.

00:51:56.580 i don't know if i tell the i don't know if i tell the veterans of that 10-year conflict or 11-year

00:52:02.260 conflict or nine-year conflict which were still there by the way no they called the one that it

00:52:08.340 was about great battles what they called it that's what that's uh in the 20s they were calling it the

00:52:13.860 great battle the hemingway generation yeah the great battle sir thank you so much kurt mills

00:52:21.060 Look forward to having you back.

00:52:23.500 Thank you, Steve.

00:52:24.480 Natasha Owens is going to take us out.

00:52:27.600 When we come back, is America driving off a physical cliff?

00:52:32.460 I think we've talked about that a couple, three times on this show.

00:52:36.180 The stark reality that the political class of Washington, D.C.

00:52:39.960 just wants to avoid over and over and over again.

00:52:43.860 How long can we actually avoid it until tough changes, tough calls,

00:52:49.500 Tough decisions have to be made.

00:52:52.520 Neil Irwin from Axios, next in the War Room.

00:52:56.860 You know, you still need help from the boss.

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Bannon's War Room - March 24, 2026

Episode 5241： In Some Form This War Will Continue In Iran

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