00:03:22.880We're going to take care of this nuclear issue.
00:03:24.480We're going to take care of this enrichment issue.
00:03:26.640They're not going to get to blackmail us.
00:03:28.400They're not going to get to fund terrorism anymore.
00:03:30.420They've killed thousands of American citizens and military personnel.
00:03:34.820We're not putting up with that anymore.
00:03:36.660They're spreading terrorism all over the world.
00:03:38.440they tried to assassinate me. We're not putting up with that anymore. We're going to take care
00:03:42.720of this once and for all. We're not going to push it off to the next generation. My envoy came back,
00:03:47.520Steve Witkoff. He said they were bragging about the fact that they could have 11 nuclear bombs
00:03:52.040in 10 days. And I'm supposed to listen to Chuck Schumer. I'm supposed to waste my time with AOC.
00:03:57.980I'm supposed to care what some editorial page has to say. He's the president of the United States.
00:04:02.400he knows what he's doing my issue here is they say premature he's sending mixed signals premature
00:04:09.800uh i don't think he's premature at all and he hasn't sent mixed signals unless he wants to
00:04:15.200send mixed signals and that's the way he negotiates and so forth so the fact of the
00:04:20.020matter is this regime is dead the question is whether we let it live whether we allow it to
00:04:25.960breathe life into it and that's why these negotiations are critical 10 points 15 points
00:04:31.140Right. How are you going to square that away during these negotiations?
00:04:34.680And if it's an objective to get there as quickly as possible, you're not going to resolve that.
00:04:41.300You're not going to come to an understanding. I mean, this will be two weeks of frustration.
00:04:45.420I'm kind of surprised that the ceasefires lasted as long as it has so far.
00:04:48.720Right. You know, this is. We've got to remember that the strategic objective was to remove Iran's ability to create a nuclear weapon.
00:05:00.660That is job number one. And no matter how that's achieved, we need to commit ourselves to that.0.95
00:05:07.420But we have to make the case to the American public. And we haven't done that yet.
00:05:11.980Right. So this should be a time that the administration begins to work on that to justify why we're there.
00:05:18.400Because, again, as I mentioned to you the last time we were together, once you put boots on the ground, it's a completely different war.
00:05:25.080This for them is a video game. This is a television series. You know, listen to the Secretary of Defense. We don't have a Department of War people, but it's the Secretary of Defense sitting up here talking the way he talks. These young men and women, what what is their expectation when they go into battle? And, you know, that's not going to be their reality. Their reality is not going to be this clean cut. Oh, yes, we dropped the bomb.
00:05:52.860things blew up and everybody went scurrying back into their holes. And that's not how it works.
00:05:58.040The enemy fights. The enemy responds. Well, I don't think we can. When you look at
00:06:03.220Kaliba or Arachi, these are both revolutionary guards people. They came out of the RRGC.
00:06:11.700They're not normal people. I think the only normal person you have is Peseshkian,1.00
00:06:16.140who's their president. But the rest of them are revolutionary leaders. They've been fighting for
00:06:20.64040 years against United States. And you've got a picture up there with Vahiti. He's the same one.
00:06:25.280He runs the IRGC right now, but he's an old revolutionary too. So you're dealing with people
00:06:30.940who are steeped in believing the United States is the great scene. And we need to go in there
00:06:35.980and realize this is not a business deal. This is war and we're settling a war. We are the victors
00:06:42.960and we're going to come in like we are the victors. They are dead men walking. Now,
00:06:47.640Are we going to resuscitate them or not?
00:06:50.220As far as the straits go, that's international waters.
00:08:15.080The last, you know, 12 to 24 hours or so, there's been a little bit more optimism.
00:08:19.660And I know the president himself is hoping that once they are in person in Pakistan,
00:08:24.540that hopefully they can broach some of the really large daylight between these two different plans.
00:08:30.100As Nick laid out, the 10 point plan from Iran, the 15 point plan from the U.S.
00:08:34.720I am told they're expecting the meeting on Saturday with the vice president, Steve Wyckoff, Jared Kushner,
00:08:40.240to be the first of likely several intense negotiations over that two-week ceasefire.
00:08:46.000And, of course, they could ultimately extend the ceasefire further if they believe progress is being made.
00:08:52.220But one thing I just want to point out about Vance himself quickly is that, you know,
00:08:56.040one, I've been told that his presence here is really meant to lend a certain air of credence to these talks.
00:09:02.220He's, of course, the president's number two has a lot of the president's full trust to negotiate on his behalf.
00:09:07.680But also one thing that's been interesting as well from some of my conversations around this is that they recognize Vance is someone that the Pakistanis, the mediators involved in this, but also the Iranians know is someone who is a former anti interventionist person in foreign wars, that he was one of the few people who did not want the president to move forward with strikes, which could also give perhaps a sense of, you know, giving Vance looking more reasonable, perhaps in their eyes.
00:09:33.280We'll have to see how these negotiations go.
00:09:35.140OK, look, this is a hot inflation report and the fingerprints of the war in the Middle East are all over this report.
00:09:41.380So consumer prices surging by point nine percent between February and March.
00:09:45.740That's triple the rate of the prior month. And that's the highest in any month in almost four years.
00:09:52.660You got to go back to June 2022 when gas prices were five dollars a gallon.
00:09:57.280The annual rate ticked up to went up sharply to three point three percent.
00:10:02.800That was slightly less than expected, but that's the highest annual rate, as you mentioned, in almost two years.
00:10:08.160In fact, this is the highest annual inflation in any month of either of President Trump's two terms in the White House.
00:10:15.020This is looking at the trend for inflation.
00:10:17.320You can see it had been moving in the right direction, had been cooling off.
00:10:23.780Well, obviously, gasoline is a major part of this.
00:10:27.340The Bureau of Labor Statistics says that three quarters of the monthly increase in prices was driven by the fact that gas prices skyrocketed by 21 percent month over month.
00:10:38.200That's the most since they started tracking this back in 1967 when LBJ was in the White House.
00:10:45.000Airfare also went up significantly, a three percent increase in airfare.
00:10:49.360That's actually less than it could have been.
00:10:51.580I mean, jet fuel costs have doubled since the war started.
00:10:54.500So airfare up 3% is not good, but it's actually likely to get worse in the coming months.
00:11:00.360Tomato prices also up by 15% on a monthly basis.
00:17:42.840these are suicide bombers they'd be suicide bombers with nuclear weapons and they could
00:17:48.560use those nuclear weapons to kill tens of millions of americans it's 47 years i got it i got it i got
00:17:54.240it he does make some i actually think mark levin tel aviv levin actually makes some relevant points
00:18:00.740i would just like to note to him that the surrender document was the 15 point program
00:18:07.780we're we're off the 15 point program i don't say that i thought there were many elements of the
00:18:13.94015 point program that we should stick with that's the white house's position so he got it you got
00:18:21.120to get your facts straight they've already agreed to that's not they're not negotiating the surrender
00:18:26.240the reason they're not negotiating a surrender is i keep saying not the reality but the reality in
00:18:32.540the revolutionary guards mind is that they didn't lose why do you think we're sending a team to
00:18:39.140islamabad so we got to get serious now what we want out of this and how we get the hell out of0.95
00:18:44.560here and let america's greatest ally do whatever they're going to do with whoever they want to do0.99
00:18:51.900it with because now this is serious and it's starting to roll into and i've been very adamant
00:18:57.600let's just keep the midterms away because every day is a major historical day here
00:19:01.940and we got to get through the day and keep the big picture now the best news i've seen in the
00:19:07.960last 24 hours is john solomon his team over just the news um has put up a a this uh about um
00:19:16.720the oil the sanctioned oil which i keep bitching and moaning about and about stopping it and and
00:19:25.260seizing it and not letting China not let the not let the the regime monetize it and there's an
00:19:33.800article and then President Trump reposted and said the greatest reset in like world history
00:19:37.860I'm down with that that's good I like that that that's why I'm saying let's shift the
00:19:43.580if that's the attitude and that's the negotiating attitude let's take that attitude just go to
00:19:49.400Beijing don't don't don't deal with intermediaries in Pakistan or even the Revolutionary Guard go
00:19:55.120right to their sponsors principle to principle anyway there's a lot going on everybody want to
00:19:59.140say first you know we've we on our starting team on our starting team of the war room
00:20:07.240over the years we had scott besant russ vote peter navarro dave walsh and people should know dave's
00:20:13.920got a very big job in the government uh and and and dave bratt who hasn't been on one because
00:20:19.580dave bratt has got some huge opportunities i think we're going to hear about shortly
00:20:23.800um and so we've had to restock and and you're doing such a great job here because we can just
00:20:31.860talk about the evidence has shown up today i don't think it's gonna be too long before they
00:20:36.940ask bowling to take a uh a 60 or 90 day hiatus from his hit show at four o'clock and and going
00:20:44.480as an advisor here so walk through because today i just want to in the fog of war we've got um
00:20:51.900You know, the Mac Daddy, a drudge and Wall Street still saying, hey, there's 10 to 15 ships maybe going through to, you know, through Hormuz, totally controlled by the Iranians, either flagged Iranian flags or oil cargoes for the Iranians.
00:24:05.720As we all know, first the energy goes up.
00:24:09.120And then everything that you input into a manufacturing process, a refinery, a food processing, a transportation, a trucking company, a rail company, a jet fuel company, those will continue to rise.
00:24:23.000The prices of those things have to rise because the feedstock, the input is oil and the backside or gasoline and the backside of that, it's inflationary.
00:24:32.120And people aren't, you know, businesses aren't philanthropic.
00:24:35.020They're just going to pass that along to the consumer.
00:24:37.240So my problem is I see CNN, I see CNBC, I see Fox News, totally shocked that this thing, the energy price is ripping our faces off.
00:24:46.800But if you've been watching the war room, you knew it was coming, even though you may not like me for telling you, but it's coming and I got more news.
00:24:53.120Two things, two things, and the people that throw out that panic in, they're just not realists.
00:25:00.420And what the president doesn't need right now is people with pom-poms, trust me.
00:25:03.780You need to be able to say, hey, look, this is some real data.
00:25:06.760this is some real alternatives what's the course of action here because we're the ultimate gold
00:25:11.840is the implementation of the trump program right uh and the mega program i want to go back
00:25:17.540isn't the concern here or one of the concerns is that in this month we still with the it's still
00:25:24.440most of the of what we consumed was on the water or in the refineries at the time so what's happened
00:25:33.880over the last 30 days and now this you know it's up to 105 or it's back to 90 but it's still
00:25:40.160double you know when bb went to the white house in you know between christmas and new year's
00:25:46.060it was around what 50 bucks or maybe it had a four handle in front of it
00:25:50.920it's that increase it doesn't seem like it's coming down so is that is that a concern
00:25:55.200go ahead yeah and and late late march late march we talked about this there's
00:26:02.340Some of the refiners that I talked to said that the last of the cheap oil was hitting our shores right now, or globally hitting shores from transportation, which means even late March, you're going to start to see prices ramp up.
00:26:16.920So like I said, even if we get oil down to $70 a barrel again, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel prices have to continue to rise because they bought, they purchased very expensive crude oil to input into the refinery.
00:26:29.660They're not going to take the loss on it.
00:26:31.120They're just going to pass it on to the retail establishment, the businesses, and that ends up coming out of our pocket.
00:26:38.100This is technical, but one thing that was very concerning about that number that I haven't heard anyone talk about,
00:26:43.840consumer sentiment dropped dramatically, which means people are fearful of their wallets, their budgets, because of what they see on the pump.
00:26:55.040Stephen, everything is tied to gasoline and tied to energy.
00:26:58.800whether you feel it or not toilet paper wallpaper paint everything has a petroleum input to it
00:27:04.860or transportation which is tied to fertilizer people are nervous they're scared now all of a
00:27:09.820sudden so you will see if if the consumer by the way also wages also yeah also the president trump's
00:27:16.380the wage increases he's gotten for people that's starting to be eaten in inflation i think the
00:27:21.020real wages are starting to drop anyway president trump the economic plan of president trump
00:27:26.360and Besson, everybody, Navarro, is all predicated, just like in the first term, is all predicated
00:27:32.920upon full-spectrum energy dominance, right? Full-spectrum energy dominance. And President
00:27:41.640Trump's done what he's done on this war. To conclude it, I'm going to ask Eric when we get
00:27:46.740back, or I'm going to ask it now, he'll give us the answer when we get back. He's made these
00:27:50.560efforts. We've got to cease fire. Why are the world's oil markets not responding as we had
00:27:57.300hoped? We want to get this back to $50 a barrel or lower as President Trump has targeted. We're
00:28:05.940going to take a short commercial break. Economics, capital markets, the war, but we're then going to
00:28:12.340pivot to the war inside the wire here in the United States. Are we winning, losing, or sitting
00:28:19.000it out all next in the war room do you owe back taxes or you haven't filed your taxes in years
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00:28:46.900collecting billions more in recent years. If you owe, the IRS can garnish your wages, levy your
00:28:54.660bank accounts, seize your retirement, and even your home. If you owe or haven't filed, it's not
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00:30:23.120I think people, and Eric helped me out here, I think people, because folks want this to end and to have some sort of, if not conclusion, enough that we can move forward.
00:30:35.840And so this is a fragile truce, I think is the term that people have been using.
00:30:40.300and president trump has this you know ceasefire that is you know and you still have elements of
00:30:47.640the uh the iranians because they're very dispersed they're they're not centralized anymore that's
00:30:54.940their strategy you've also got i this is what i keep harping on you got to be in a room with
00:31:00.540somebody not just can sign a deal and go in the in front of the media and talk about a deal but
00:31:04.280that can actually be able to enforce a deal i'm not so sure the guys around those tribesmen
00:31:11.800around the straits or hormuz are actually part of anybody's program that'll all be found out
00:31:18.940right there there is a reason that the united states navy is not uh enforcing an open waterway
00:31:29.360international waterway in hormuz but allowing these guys to still charge uh and you can tell
00:31:36.940from the bloomberg piece not just our sanctions but also the fact that that element of the iranian
00:31:44.340revolutionary guard are trying to charge it in uh in um in yuan in chinese currency
00:31:52.900or if they can't do that crypto and if they're doing crypto you realize they're going to skim
00:31:58.340it right to themselves even screw the chinese how's that um so president trump's doing what
00:32:05.340he can do and right now this is fragile i think eric the global commodity and capital markets
00:32:13.680are kind of in agreement that this is a big kind of catch your breath and uh and and kind of wait
00:32:21.620and see what president trump can actually hammer out here sir yeah yeah i think you're you're you
00:32:27.520hit on the head, the markets are ominously quiet right now.
00:32:30.880And I'll tell you, Steve, we're still sitting at $98 a barrel as we speak.
00:32:43.560Gasoline, although it feels like it's killing us right now, is only up 25%, diesel up 30%,
00:32:49.760which means all this crude oil that's up 80%, for most of this war, it's been elevated like
00:32:56.920this will work its way into the gasoline price and diesel price. So we're going a lot higher.
00:33:01.000Now, I will also tell you this. You and I both know Donald Trump can get oil back to $50 a barrel
00:33:07.200or lower. I was there. You were in the White House. I was watching it on Fox and trading.
00:33:14.300He got oil negative. It didn't go to 20 or 10. It went negative. There was so much. We were so
00:33:21.080washing oil that people were paying to store their oil. He can do it again. I'm not saying zero,
00:33:27.200but he can certainly get that $50 handle if and when he finishes whatever the plan is for this
00:33:34.360Strait of Hormuz, Middle East. This is what I've been saying. Let's just rip the Band-Aid off one
00:33:39.400way or the other and get back to all live to the above energy strategy, get oil prices down,
00:33:44.960get inflation down, and let the economy rip and let people really put some money back into their
00:33:49.400pocket because they vote with their pockets with their wallets with their budgets no doubt about
00:33:54.660it i i would i'm talking to the best political strategist on the planet right now stephen k
00:34:00.100bannon am i wrong in any of those assessments well i think it's first things first right i think
00:34:09.120and people have to have realistic that's why i think tel aviv levin although i do agree with
00:34:14.900some of his points i just think it's unrealistic right now the surrender document the surrender
00:34:18.960the instrument of surrender was the 15 points we put out because it was a maximalist strategy
00:34:24.220hey it's donald trump you know he's you know he's going to negotiate he's going to put a maximalist
00:34:29.320strategy this even having the meeting in islamabad shows you that it's going to be something less
00:34:34.420than a full unconditional surrender that's just not going to happen and you have to kind of figure
00:34:37.800this out as you go president trump you can tell is doing that i keep saying that the central party
00:34:42.920in this is the sponsor of the revolutionary guard right now uh is the uh is both in weapons and
00:34:50.760access to weapons and access to cash money uh is uh is uh is the chinese communist party now
00:34:58.280that's why i think this meeting in may is going to be so big it's going to be principle to
00:35:01.720principle it's going to be president trump uh in the room with xi and i think that's going to
00:35:06.120actually uh formed because i don't believe where we sit now you're actually going to get to full
00:35:12.960documentation even if you get some sort of term sheet coming out of islamabad some term sheet
00:35:19.200coming out of islamabad i think it's unlikely that we'll ever get some written formal instrument
00:35:23.920of agreement between the two parties because i think the two parties are just so far apart0.99
00:35:29.620I do believe, though, that this issue of Hormuz and how you're going to actually open it up and have the free navigation, have the free flow of oil, Eric, is going to become more and more central every day we go forward, particularly if the Iranians keep playing their games, which is, I mean, you tell me.0.76
00:35:48.600The number of ships coming through here is still a small percentage of what it was at its height, and particularly what it needs to be if we're to have a full booming world economy of which the United States is the engine of it.
00:36:02.440And I think the NATO meeting the other day was pretty, pretty obvious that he didn't, you know, what Secretary General Rute did not come to the sticks right after he said, I had a great meeting with President Trump.
00:36:14.400We're fully committed to put the Royal Navy, the French Navy, the Italian Navy, the German, all the navies of of Europe down here on picket duty and escort duty with the United States Navy to take our burden of it.
00:36:29.400I didn't hear that. One of the reasons you didn't hear it is that they ain't got it.
00:36:32.440right? Because their people are taking the month of August off. They're retiring when they're 50
00:36:38.260years old. They get full medical benefits. Everything U.S. workers don't have, they got.
00:36:43.860And why they have it? Because they're not paying for their defense. The United States is paying0.90
00:36:47.420for it and manning it with their kids. So we're facing some quite stark realities.
00:36:53.780What you saw in the numbers today, to get those numbers back in line and to make sure we're back
00:36:59.440to driving the Trump economic agenda because everything President Trump worked for with the
00:37:04.520tariffs, with the big, beautiful bill, everything was about driving us back to being a manufacturing
00:37:10.720hegemon. And then you're clearly going to hit some speed bumps, Eric, as you've defined for this
00:37:16.460audience, if the predicate for that is full spectrum energy dominance and oil with a four
00:37:23.180handle in front of it or a five handle in front of it, it doesn't work. Or let's say this, it works
00:37:28.660differently when you're at $90 a barrel or $100 a barrel, sir?