00:03:11.200Strategically, they kind of sent a message over the weekend.
00:03:13.500Hey, look, we shifted the battlefield over to the Persian Gulf
00:03:16.920and the center of gravity of the battle.0.84
00:03:18.520Now, if you're going to hit Lebanon, we're coming in with ballistic missiles,
00:03:23.360which I thought were all destroyed, but coming in with ballistic missiles.
00:03:26.080So we had a pretty big shift over the weekend, sir.
00:03:30.120Yeah. I mean, more evidence that we're nowhere close to the end of this thing, and we don't really have our arms around it, Steve. I mean, we can shout all we want about stop shooting, but the thing is we don't actually have control over the situation. We have an exchange of fire between the Iranians and the Israelis.
00:03:46.900Two really dangerous things here. One, the Israelis apparently hit a petrochemical facility in Iran, and the Iranians retaliated by doing the same in Israel.
00:03:59.360The actual oil production and refining capacity in the Middle East has been largely, not completely, but largely off limits on both sides because nobody wants to burn it down forever.
00:04:12.340Anytime we start seeing those kinds of exchanges, we're getting pretty close to, you know, something where we burn the infrastructure down and it'll take 10 years to rebuild it.
00:04:23.300The other thing is, of course, the Houthis fired on Israel and they've now announced the Israelis can't sail ships in the Red Sea.
00:04:31.040So the Houthis are edging real close to coming back in and blocking that shipping corridor as well.0.53
00:04:37.680the reason that's so huge too is that this is the whole the whole talk with nato is that look he0.86
00:04:44.720didn't send to ukraine like we did now with the red sea and the suez canal and everything coming
00:04:49.640out of hormuz that's your deal our navy you're going to see another carrier battle group have
00:04:53.740to get deployed back over to keep that remember the houthis gave as a former surface warfare
00:04:58.840officer the houthis gave as good as they got back last last last may and june and july and i think
00:05:05.500the navy would tell you uh as the egyptian army would tell you they lost i think 40 000 people
00:05:10.280there 50 or 60 years ago as the british army would tell you the houthis are like uh they're
00:05:16.580a version of the scotch irish up in appalachia right it's the it's the arabian peninsula version
00:05:22.360of that these are tough hombres they don't like anybody they don't get along with anybody they
00:05:26.760don't get along with each other they don't like each other okay that's they feel they can shut0.65
00:05:30.540down the red sea and it's going to take another carrier battle group and the british are going
00:05:34.420to send you one destroyer that goes to Crete and has to go in the yard. The French Navy's got
00:05:39.080nothing. The Italian Navy's got nothing. They won't step up. This is going to be one more,
00:05:43.720this is going to be another obligation of the American military. Am I correct in that, Sam
00:05:48.660Fettis? You're 100% correct. And let's remember the whole Saudi solution to the Gulf of Hormuz
00:05:53.540has been to pump all their oil through the pipeline to the Red Sea, Yanbu, and send it out0.69
00:05:58.880to the market there so as soon as ships get hit in the red sea and the insurance companies you
00:06:05.100know lloyd stops insuring tankers in the red sea nobody will move in the red sea and that
00:06:10.600whatever it is seven million barrels a day will be off the world market too in an instant off the
00:06:16.180world just not to put not to put to to find a point on things never change the i think one of
00:06:21.620the opening scenes in the seven pillars of wisdom t.e lawrence's uh t.e lawrence's great book about
00:06:28.460the um the arab war the arab revolt in first world war and one of the opening scenes of the
00:06:33.740film lawrence arabia takes place when they're trying to retreat the arab army that exists which
00:06:38.720ain't much are trying to retreat from the turks to where yambo it's so nothing changes you know
00:06:45.960a hundred and some years later we're right back to it so this is why this region i think we got
00:06:50.700to give a big think about what we're doing there talking now so you had these two you had the new
00:06:55.160York Times story. You had the NBC News story about raising the threat level internally on
00:07:01.640our intelligence of Israel as spying on us. Jack Posobiec said he confirmed that over the weekend
00:07:08.720on many different sources. You've also had, you know, lo and behold, trying to merge the defense
00:07:13.540base in this House NDAA. And now Brandon Weikert saying they're doing the same thing on the
00:07:18.360authorization of intelligence for the intelligence apparatus. You've been in that
00:07:24.820neighborhood a long time. You know all the actors. Can you explain to the audience exactly what is
00:07:29.700going on, sir? Yeah, I should add that at one point in time, I was actually in charge at headquarters
00:07:35.520of our liaison relationship with the Israelis. So yeah, I know the subject. Look, the Israelis
00:07:44.060have been spying on us for a long time. I mean, there are all sorts of public cases, including
00:07:49.040Jonathan Pollard, in which they have run operations, recruited spies inside our defense
00:07:56.320and intelligence apparatus and stolen secrets. And that's the tip of the iceberg. I'll leave it
00:08:02.180there. This has been going on forever. We've known that it's been going on forever. And for
00:08:07.780political reasons, nobody has ever been able to do anything about it. Even when they tried,
00:08:13.040they were slapped down. Again, I can confirm that from personal experience.
00:08:16.200So now you have these guys, the Israelis, are now supposed to be integrated completely into databases and projects and top secret stuff and special access programs.0.94
00:08:32.040So the whole intelligence community basically runs on a system where if we're going to pass something to a foreign power, it goes through a clearance process.0.92
00:08:40.460We actually decide piece by piece what we give to other nations.0.89
00:08:46.820You're talking about the end of that with the Israelis.0.96
00:08:49.220The Israelis will be – I described it once as sticking a straw into the Pentagon.1.00
00:10:06.020At the very moment, they're announcing, I think, a 30,000-vote drop, and Spencer Pratt gets 10 votes.
00:10:12.880They stole it in your face, and this shows you you can have as great a candidate as you have.
00:10:18.480Hilton, all these guys, Pratt, it doesn't matter.
00:10:22.120They control the apparatus, and they're just in your grill, and the president of the United States is 100% justified
00:10:26.980because this should be a five-alarm fire right now for the American people.
00:10:31.360Unfortunately, the Republican Party just wants to look the other way, Sam.
00:10:34.620Yeah, well, that's absolutely dead on. Look, there is absolutely nothing secure about mail-in ballots. Full stop. Okay, everything. We could spend the next 12 hours talking about all the ways in which mail-in ballots are completely insecure.
00:10:48.540Nobody really knows where the ballots are coming from, how they were filled out, who decided to make the selection, who paid for what.
00:21:10.080He's deeply unpopular. And I'm working with Mark Lynch, who is spending five million dollars out of his own retirement to get rid of this guy.
00:21:17.620Lynch is a patriot who just wants to have a successful polity for his kids and his grandkids.
00:21:24.900And and South Carolina is going to trend the direction that Chris Lasavita takes every state that he works in.
00:21:30.740In Virginia, he gave us the Democrats in McAuliffe instead of getting the win with Cuccinelli in 2013.
00:21:36.980In 2016, in North Carolina, Chris LaCivita gave us, unfortunately, a Democrat, Cooper, now who's going to be your next senator.
00:21:44.540But we had an incumbent Republican in 2016, and that Republican incumbent lost the same year that Trump won in 2016.
00:21:52.340Look, these phony, they're counterfeit Republicans.
00:21:56.320It's not even fair to use the word Republican in the same sentence with a lot of these guys, like Lindsey Graham, are just, they're out for themselves.
00:22:04.760They are going to sell out the country to the lowest bidder, and everybody knows it now, Steve.
00:22:10.160We can't find people in South Carolina who really like Lindsey Graham.
00:22:14.100Nobody publicly admits to it, and you know why, Steve?
00:23:08.500Literally, we reported this a couple years ago.
00:23:10.300They took something totaling close to a billion dollars.
00:23:13.100A huge chunk of that came from the Central Bank of China right at the same time that that whole Dominion payoff went out, which is, of course, just a bunch of money laundering.
00:23:39.400And then to sort of bring it full circle to this whole FISA, you're talking about Lindsey Graham running around and trying to get on Fox News every day of the week.
00:24:16.240And by the way, Thune is using the calendar at the Senate
00:24:21.240To do anything, it proves that everything is political
00:24:23.820they like the last week he lindsey graham is getting all these big legislative wins well he's
00:24:28.360the budget chairman we still don't have a budget where's the budget lindsey um so look these guys
00:24:33.460are total frauds okay hang on so hang on so hang on hang on just make the case lindsey graham he's
00:24:40.480going to tell the people in south gana you may not like it but i bring seniority i get special
00:24:45.040deals i get tons of government money down there and defense installations everything i can make
00:24:49.880I'm internationally known. Hang on. I'm internationally known.
00:24:52.900I go to the Munich defense conference and I get Mercedes and everybody comes in the South.
00:24:57.100South Carolina's comedy is booming because of Lindsey Graham.
00:25:01.180What's the argument? What's the counter argument to that, sir?
00:25:06.000First of all, he doesn't actually bring a whole bunch of cheddar.1.00
00:25:08.520We got the Columbia had their army base bracked, you know, and so look, Lindsey Graham is an embarrassment.0.99
00:25:14.660The guy, by the way, one of his biggest claims to fame is, you know, he does these Kavanaugh.
00:25:20.700But, you know, I guess he did vote yes on Kavanaugh and he made a lot of noise on TV about it.
00:25:24.800That's something he's very good at doing. But he also voted to confirm Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor, Judge Boasberg.
00:25:32.500OK, Lindsay was a yes on Boasberg. Lindsay also voted for this guy, a Biden nominee not too long ago, a couple of years ago, called Brendan Herson.
00:25:40.340Brendan Herson as soon as Trump came into office this for the second term
00:25:45.080Brendan Herson voted or unilaterally rather struck down the executive order
00:25:52.200banning the mutilation of child genitalia that's Lindsey Graham's record he is
00:25:58.960always a rubber stamp for far-left Democrat nut jobs in the judiciary and
00:26:04.380he makes noise about it as if he's not that's a lie look anybody Steve who0.86
00:26:09.180finds the meaning of life at the bottom of a dung hole you can't trust them that's lindsey
00:26:14.020graham and look south carolina everybody around the world is looking around at you guys being like
00:26:19.860how is that your senator you should be embarrassed like look if this guy somehow manages to skate by
00:26:26.440okay and he's your senator again for another six years i pray to god it doesn't happen but if he0.75
00:26:31.740does you guys are on record this you're a christian state you're one of like the reddest bible belt
00:26:38.380states there is and lindsey graham and tim scott like these two weird guys are are somehow your
00:26:44.400statewide elected you got some explaining to do south carolina if you're a christian you can't let
00:26:48.900this happen this is what i don't get you don't get any better than the folks in south carolina
00:26:53.840these are red-blooded american patriots and you get trey gowdy and lindsey graham okay let's cut
00:27:00.300to the chase where do people go right now if they want to find out about lynch or if they want to
00:27:04.960put in a protest vote against lindsey and keep him under 50 where do they go to find out everything
00:27:10.520about lynch and also the polling places all the information where they go right now no lynch for
00:27:16.280senate.com uh and at mark lynch sc on all of the socials uh the team down there is uh they're going
00:27:23.280crazy they're getting everybody out to the polls uh we need all hands on deck grab everybody you
00:27:28.800know take them out to the polls make sure they vote they gotta vote for mark lynch uh and we
00:27:34.720got to get uh lindsey under 50 if he goes under 50 there's a two-week runoff steve and if that
00:27:42.140happens it's going to be a huge huge um uh just cataclysmic event for the rhinos um and i got to
00:27:49.300say this uh steve you're talking about a little bit of the election fraud stuff going on the
00:27:53.660republicans want the election fraud to continue i can assure you steve you were with me in
00:27:57.900mississippi back in 2014 with chris mcdaniel where they bought black votes look these rhinos0.98
00:30:22.360I think if you look at the trends, it should be in the top one or two of the New York Times bestsellers.
00:30:29.040That's because of this audience, and I appreciate your support of that.
00:30:33.180It's been incredible for McTexas' new book.
00:30:36.500You know, people want access to the Warren Posse because of your guys' loyalty.
00:30:39.860Once you get onto something and like it and support it, you don't back off.
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00:30:47.820They cut free deals so you can get to know them.
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00:31:02.140the two things that guide's much shorter. The end of the dollar empire, we actually try to walk
00:31:08.100through the whole structure of the financial structures post-World War II, but we also lead
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00:31:18.260Andrew Jackson, the fights against the central bank, fiat currency, all of it, so that you can
00:31:22.900understand because this is all a process. But the thing today is why are central banks buying
00:31:28.300gold at record rates versus particularly now they're buying it at rates higher than they're
00:31:33.320buying U.S. treasuries? We called that one, I don't know, six or seven months ago, Philip Patrick and
00:31:37.980the team. But that's what you have to understand and particularly what's happened over this weekend
00:31:41.560because I think you can kind of say all bets are off right now as President Trump tries to mediate
00:31:46.560this. We're going to get to Trita Parsi. He's going to join us in a moment. The other free
00:31:50.560deal is tax. Well, we got everything. Basically, everything probably is coming in for free deals,
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00:32:36.980Trita Parsi, you've got a piece up on your sub stack I've put up. You've been really a great
00:32:41.520guide. You get a lot of criticism and we get a lot of criticism to have you on there. But I say,
00:32:45.600look, I want a range of thinking because this is a quite complex topic. And as we see over the
00:32:51.740weekend with President Trump trying to step into the breach here and saying, hey, I'm calling the
00:32:56.800shots and you're not going to do this and things happen, et cetera. I think you've been a pretty
00:33:00.760good guy for a reality check of what's going on. You make a point in the substack that what happened
00:33:07.320over the weekend is quite fundamental. It's maybe even more fundamental than the shifting of this
00:33:12.000battle or this war to the Persian Gulf after the Israeli attacks down on the natural gas facilities
00:33:18.680of Qatar in the Iranians, which Qatar kind of control, and the shift in the Straits of Hormuz.
00:33:24.020Talk to me about what happened over the weekend and why is this so fundamentally important, sir?
00:33:30.320Great to be with you, Steve, and happy to hear that I'm still controversial.
00:33:33.860So what I think happened here is that the Iranians had already from the outset said that if there is supposed to be an end to this war, it has to encompass Israel and Lebanon as well.0.63
00:33:47.220Otherwise, the Israelis, if they're unrestrained, they will just restart the war.0.71
00:33:51.200They will drag the U.S. into it again.0.89
00:33:53.260And what's the point then of having an agreement with the United States if the Israelis still have this massive loophole in which they can restart the war?0.83
00:34:00.380And I think the Trump administration did take this seriously.0.53
00:34:02.800I think that's part of the reason why you had that colorful conversation between Trump and
00:34:06.700Netanyahu the other day, because that actually was preceded by the U.S. side picking up that
00:34:12.060the Iranians were about to launch missiles on Israel. And they were about 45 minutes to 60
00:34:16.880minutes away from doing so. And Trump intervened, got the Israelis to back off, at least temporarily.
00:34:22.640But this is the pattern we've seen before. Netanyahu backs off, but he only does so for
00:34:27.360a couple of days, and then he's back at it. And he did attack southern Lebanon, southern Beirut,
00:34:33.860and essentially disregarded both what Trump had asked him, as well as the warnings from the
00:34:38.360Iranian side. And then the Iranians shot a large number of missiles at Israel. We have no idea
00:34:43.480what the degree of damage is, because the Israeli military censorship is now so strict, you have no
00:34:49.520idea what's going on over there. Even in the summer war last year, there was a degree of it,
00:34:55.220but at least you got images and other things out. Now we get almost nothing. And with that,
00:35:01.040the Iranians were essentially trying to change the battle lines. They had already re-established1.00
00:35:06.160their own deterrence. The Israelis know very well if they attack Iran, there's going to be a response.0.61
00:35:10.500Now they were trying to extend the deterrence onto Lebanon in the absence of any other pressure0.58
00:35:16.740working on making sure that the Israelis back off. If that were to be established, and we still0.71
00:35:21.500don't know if it has been established or not, it would be a bit of a game changer because it would0.69
00:35:26.160be the first time in quite some time in the region in which Israel's maneuverability in the region
00:35:32.120would be restrained because another power is willing to strike at Israel, not in response to
00:35:37.980Israel attacking that country, but in response to Israel attacking a third country. Now, if that were
00:35:43.680to happen, this is what the Israelis call this new Iranian equation. If that were to be established,0.76
00:35:48.240it would be a terrible situation from the Israeli standpoint because they want to have
00:35:53.300complete maneuverability in the region. They want to be able to strike at Lebanon without a0.84
00:35:57.600consequence, at Syria, at anyone that they want, essentially. And that is part of the policy that0.91
00:36:03.660the U.S. itself has pursued for Israel for the last couple of decades of allowing the Israelis
00:36:08.040to have this total military domination with no inhibitions on its maneuverability. The problem
00:36:14.140with that, in my view, is that it has made the Israelis far more reckless, far more disregarding
00:36:20.020of U.S. interests, far less disregarding of the need for stability that the U.S. also has.0.74
00:36:27.140And as a result, it's just, you know, become a snowballing of the Israelis just doing more and0.91
00:36:32.400more and more in a manner that has been a problem both for the United States, but clearly for the1.00
00:36:36.500region as well. It's been very destabilizing. But this is not something the Israelis want to give
00:36:40.880up. This is what the Iranians tried to establish. Now, the Israelis, despite Trump's very strong0.99
00:36:46.380and public warning saying don't respond, did respond. The question was how extensive was the
00:36:53.780Israeli response. The Iranians say that it was actually rather limited. They didn't do huge
00:36:58.920damage. I don't know if that is a self-serving thing that the Iranians are saying to play it
00:37:03.100down. But at the same time, it does appear that the U.S. side believes that the Israeli response
00:37:08.240essentially was proportionate and not escalatory. The Iranians responded again after that. And since
00:37:14.440then, the Israelis have not done anything except for some strikes in southern Lebanon that seems
00:37:18.880to also have been in areas that were not that very, very critical. The White House now believes
00:37:23.560that both sides have backed off, that Trump played this very well. And as a result, this round at a
00:37:30.120minimum is over. And now there may be a new impetus for diplomacy. But I think what really matters at
00:37:36.520this point is to see, will the Israelis strike southern Beirut or not? If they don't, it does0.55
00:37:43.180appear that this new equation, at least to a certain extent, has been established, which doesn't
00:37:47.960mean that the Israelis cannot strike southern Beirut or that they won't, but it means that every
00:37:52.640time they decide to do so, they have to take into account that there's going to be a cost associated0.99
00:37:57.920with it because the Iranians will do something. And that is a cost and a consideration that they1.00
00:38:03.060did not have to take into account before. And that is a very profound change in the region
00:38:08.580because we have not seen anything like that for the last 20 or 30 years, I would say.
00:38:14.000Has President Trump now segued into a, is he now the mediator for this? I mean, at first he was a
00:38:21.320combatant and really leading, you know, Israel's a protectorate. I know they're America's greatest
00:38:27.020ally, but a protectorate. Has he now shifted into the role over the last week, but particularly
00:38:32.160over the weekend of being the mediator here? I think to a certain extent that he has. And I
00:38:37.140think that is absolutely the right thing to do. In my view, you know my view on this, I don't think
00:38:41.340this war should have been started in the first place. I think this was only serving Israel and0.91
00:38:44.740it was a mistake from an America First standpoint to go along with it. But now what Trump seems to
00:38:50.480be doing is to extract himself and the United States from this. And in my view, the U.S. should
00:38:56.220not be a feature in the Israeli-Iranian rivalry. It should not allow the Israelis or the Iranians1.00
00:39:01.700to have a veto over whether talks take place or succeed or have an impact on when the U.S. is at
00:39:08.200war and when it isn't. That should be a firmly American decision. But the more the U.S. is0.81
00:39:12.540entangled in this rivalry, the less maneuverability and control Trump will have. By taking this step
00:39:22.320back, mediating, and also incidentally, not joining in with the Israelis in this exchange of
00:39:28.000fire. I think we've also seen a very critical step by the Trump administration to move itself
00:39:34.040out of this. It's not a complete move. Of course, you know, the Israelis say that the U.S. actually
00:39:39.020helped the Israelis with shooting down some of the missiles. The White House denies it and says
00:39:44.400actually the U.S. was not involved. I don't know exactly where the truth is, but if it is so that
00:39:48.780the U.S. was not involved, that is a very significant message to the Israelis as well,
00:39:53.360that if we tell you not to strike back or not to strike at all, you have to understand that
00:39:58.780the consequence will be that the U.S. is not going to be at your side and defending you
00:40:02.780at the inevitable consequences that will come when you are not listening to us.
00:40:07.560So I think that is, if that is true, then that is a very significant shift. Remember,
00:40:12.020Biden on every one of these exchanges, he said he didn't want the Israelis to do it,
00:40:15.640yet he provided full defensive support. Hang on one second. I want to tell Aviv0.65
00:40:20.460Levin gave an alternative that I want to hear that's predicated on two things, the Persian
00:40:24.300people and the Arab allies. Let's go and play this. I want your response. Here's an idea.
00:40:32.220We spend the next two or three weeks hammering the hell out of every target that matters,
00:40:39.340including the so-called enriched uranium. 20% or more, I don't really care, whatever it is,
00:40:46.620and just hit them with everything we've got0.97
00:40:49.040with those fabulous bombers and bombs.0.99
00:41:14.540Rather than giving them money, which to me would be a disaster, and tell the Israelis and tell the Saudis, the UAE, which has been very good, and anybody else in the Arab world, we will provide you with whatever intelligence support, training, military equipment that you need.
00:41:37.140We will continue to use our posture in the region to defend our forces and our mutual interests.0.87
00:41:44.700But as far as Iran and Hezbollah go, you go at it.0.99
00:41:48.720If you want to blow Hezbollah off the face of the earth, then you do it.0.98
00:41:53.560If you want to blow the Iranian regime off the face of the earth, then you do it.0.99
00:41:59.320And, in addition, what we, the United States, will do, finally, is arm the people of Iran.
00:42:08.320As we have, as a country, armed people throughout the world, freedom fighters who want their freedom.
00:42:15.320And I don't want to hear that the Iranian people don't want their freedom. That is baloney.
00:42:21.320So Trita, there's a lot of people in the United States that will give that a listen.
00:42:25.320look, if you tell me it's two weeks and I'm out, even if it's escalatory, this is predicated upon
00:42:31.400actually the Arabs being down with this and for this. And most importantly, the Persian people0.95
00:42:37.380ready to rise up. So I want to take a minute here, but hold you through the break because
00:42:41.200I think this one needs to be addressed, sir. Did we lose his mic? Trita? Oh, I'm here. I thought
00:42:53.500do you want me to respond after the break? No, no, no, no. I'm sorry. Just right now would be
00:42:58.160fine. A minute right now, I'm going to hold you after the break. Okay. Yeah. So look, I think,
00:43:02.620first of all, notice that Trump did not listen to a single thing Mark Levine asked for. Not a
00:43:07.820single thing of those things that he called for did Trump do in this moment. He did not go and
00:43:12.480bomb everything. He did not do all of this full escalation because at the end of the day, I think
00:43:16.920Trump has understood that all of these promises, all of these false promises of how easy this would
00:43:22.080be and how quick this would be were all false. And now the United States is in this situation
00:43:28.100that it shouldn't be in, and he's trying to get out of it, recognizing that it was a problem to0.60
00:43:33.060listen to the Israelis, although, of course, he's never going to say that publicly. But the fact
00:43:36.880that he's not listening to them now, he's not following their advice now, says a lot. Now,
00:43:41.940if the United States were to do this, then we would have all-out wall. And we already know
00:43:45.920at this point how damaging that would be. We know that the Iranians would have the ability of taking1.00
00:43:51.400out all of the oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, which would then create not just a bottleneck0.99
00:43:56.920problem, but a production problem. We were talking about oil above $200 for two to three years going
00:44:02.620forward because enough production does not exist. Trita, just stick around. Stick around. Short break.
00:44:13.900Everyone's focused on how the conflict in the Middle East is raising oil prices,
00:44:17.380but there's another grim reality to this contention.
00:44:22.040Oil isn't the only resource being constrained.
00:44:24.440About one-third of global fertilizer trade happens through this region.
00:44:29.400And with spring planting season on top of us,
00:44:31.780American farmers are sounding the alarm,
00:44:34.100with some saying they can't afford to plant their fields.
00:44:37.180When one piece of the supply chain gets hit this hard,
00:44:40.420you know what comes next, higher fruit prices, reduced availability,
00:45:43.620Trita, but Mark Levin is giving people who want to listen a path out of here.1.00
00:45:50.320A couple weeks of bombing, you've got the Arabs on your side,
00:45:53.020you've got the Persian people that are ready to rise up.
00:45:56.120All we've got to do is arm them because they want to breathe the fresh air of democracy and freedom
00:46:02.620after, what, I don't know, 60, 70 years of being under the boot of the theocratic Islamic mullahs, sir.0.98
00:46:11.220look this is exactly the same kind of snake oil that they were selling with the iraq war and with0.96
00:46:18.820all of these other interventions in the middle east that have proven to be a disaster do the0.82
00:46:23.320iranian people want to leave me under a completely different government and regime absolutely i don't0.95
00:46:28.680think there's any doubt that the majority of them want to go in that direction are they ready to
00:46:33.680take up arms against the iranian government i think that is a recipe for civil war and prolonged
00:46:40.900disaster, which is exactly what people like Mark Levine and his supporters in Israel are looking
00:46:46.680for. Because what the Israelis want at the end of the day is not democracy in Iran. They don't want
00:46:51.600democracy in Syria or in Lebanon or any other place. What they're looking for is chaos so that
00:46:57.040those countries cannot have the power to limit Israel's maneuverability. Going back to the very0.59
00:47:03.160equation I talked about earlier on, they want to have complete military dominance in the region,
00:47:07.620complete maneuverability. And that requires that these other countries that have the potential of
00:47:13.560being powerful enough to challenge Israel are not reaching that potential. Whether that means
00:47:18.780throwing them into a civil war or other means or defeating them militarily, either one is fine. But0.99
00:47:24.600in the case of Iran, they cannot defeat them militarily. So they're looking towards saying,0.97
00:47:28.680how can we start a civil war? Remember, Israelis are openly talking about that their plan was to0.92
00:47:32.840arm the Kurds inside of Iran. And this was specifically a movement that is a separatist
00:47:38.640organization. So this goes towards civil war, separating the country, all of the kind of
00:47:43.520things that produce massive refugee flows. And all of those refugees go to the West, they go to0.98
00:47:49.080Europe, they go to the United States, all of these kind of disasters that these neoconservative0.99
00:47:53.820dreams in the region have created before. But this one would be on crack.
00:47:58.080Trita, real quickly, our Arab allies, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, a couple of them throwing money, UAE actually will punch as hard as they can punch. Where are their heads right now? Where do you think they stand on all of this?0.72
00:48:14.480the emiratis are completely with israelis they want more conflict they want the united states
00:48:20.880to hit the iranians as hard as possible and they want the united states to support israel if israel
00:48:26.400goes in that direction to support the uae itself because after the abrams accord i think they've
00:48:31.640moved so close to the israelis that it's really difficult at times to see a daylight between them
00:48:35.720that is not where the rest of the regional states are or the regional allies of the united states
00:48:40.300certainly not where the Qataris are, and not even the Saudis, who do not have any love for this
00:48:45.840government in Iran. They're not in that place either, because I think they have now seen what
00:48:50.400war does. They have come out of this war relatively good looking. They have not suffered that much
00:48:56.500economically. They have a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. They've been able to sell
00:49:01.660a lot of oil at even higher prices than they did before. They have not been struck that hard by the
00:49:07.020Iranians. The Iranians clearly have avoided going into direct confrontation with the Saudis.
00:49:11.680But if this war continues and escalates, all of those relative gains of Saudi Arabia could be
00:49:17.420lost. And that's part of the reason why they're lobbying strongly against further war.
00:49:21.480Trita, one more thing before you go. The Houthis. Are the Houthis coming in now? Is the Red Sea
00:49:26.320now? Because if this happens, folks, you're going to see with NATO how worthless they are. We're0.59
00:49:30.800going to have to send another carrier battle group over there to keep the Red Sea and the0.90
00:49:35.600Suez Canal open. Your thoughts on the Houthis? Yeah, so it seemed like the Houthis were about
00:49:41.560to go in. But because of the fact that after the second round of Iranian attacks, the Iranians said
00:49:46.580that they're now done. And it seems like the Israelis are not going to respond, at least not
00:49:51.020now. We'll see what happens in three, four days. And again, what I said earlier on, it really goes
00:49:54.860down to whether there is another attack on Beirut. If that happens, unfortunately, this whole thing
00:50:00.600can restart. And then we may very well see the Houthis closing the Red Sea. And even if the U.S.0.72
00:50:06.060sends another carrier over there, we know it from the last time, the U.S. can bomb a lot of things
00:50:11.380in Yemen, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the strait opens. So that traffic in that waterway,
00:50:17.080which is another 12% of global energy, will be at least partially closed in that scenario.0.99
00:50:22.440The Houthis, I say their equivalent is like Appalachia. The Egyptians, I think they lost0.99
00:50:27.10040. They had a 40,000, 50,000-man army. They got defeated. I think Nasser was the head. The British
00:50:33.060were down there. The Saudis have tried to take us on their peninsula. The UAE tried to help out. I0.97
00:50:38.440mean, these are tough hombres, right? They don't like each other. They've been fighting forever,
00:50:42.160and they're going to fight, right? So you get mixed up in the middle of that. You're asking
00:50:45.760for another major escalation in this world. Exactly. And listen carefully to what Mark
00:50:49.760Levin was saying. He was essentially arguing for the United States to triple down its involvement
00:50:55.220in the Middle East, entangle ourselves even beyond what our previous entanglements have been.
00:51:01.260At a moment where the vast majority of Americans just want to come home from the Middle East,
00:51:06.500do not want to be involved in every rivalry and in every dispute that the peoples over there have,
00:51:11.580recognizing that they are actually immaterial, ultimately, to U.S. interests. There are regions
00:51:16.840of the world that really matter to the United States. The Middle East increasingly is not one
00:51:21.380of them, yet that is the one where we are most deeply involved. And it's very much thanks to0.96
00:51:25.620people like Mark Livian and other neocons who are constantly pushing us deeper into quagmires over
00:51:30.480there. Trita, where do people go to get your analysis, sir? They should go to my substack,
00:51:36.800which is trita.parsi.substack.com. Go to my Twitter at tparsi. And of course, go to the
00:51:42.840Quincy Institute's website, which is quincyinst.org. Thank you, Trita. I appreciate you.
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