00:00:00.000On the air today, we are following some breaking news. The Associated Press is reporting that
00:00:04.220federal agents searched the home of Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar this morning. That's
00:00:09.040according to people familiar with the matter. The Justice Department says that Homeland Security
00:00:13.280carried out the search as part of a criminal investigation. We are still waiting to hear
00:00:18.140more details about this. Omar, of course, has been a prominent critic of Donald Trump since
00:00:23.080she joined Congress in 2018. She's been a constant target of both Trump and the Republican Party.
00:00:28.760This is a fast breaking story, but I've got a statement from a DOJ official acknowledging this law enforcement activity by Homeland Security Investigations, which is a part of DHS in the Washington, D.C. area.
00:00:41.320This is in response to my inquiry about what's happening at Representative Omar's home.
00:00:45.380So they're saying that this was a judicially authorized search warrant pursued by the Department of Justice being executed by agents of Homeland Security Investigation, which is a part of DHS.
00:00:56.300And we're continuing to report this out. Fox News is reporting that this that this investigation stems from a question about paperwork filled out, immigration paperwork filled out by her father when she was a child.
00:01:09.800As everyone knows, there's been a longstanding controversy, mostly in right-wing circles, about Ilhan Omar's immigration providence and whether she's in the country legally, whether the steps she took when she arrived here as a refugee, as a child, whether all the paperwork was proper.
00:01:27.300It's been simmering in right-wing media and conservative circles for years.
00:01:31.560But it appears that somehow the Department of Justice has secured a warrant to conduct this search.
00:01:37.420That's a big step that requires a judge to determine that there's probable cause to believe that there's evidence of a crime at this location, which would be her home in the D.C. area.
00:01:48.660It doesn't mean that it's definitive, but it means that there was enough that they showed a judge.
00:01:52.300And we saw in the past when the Justice Department secured a warrant for the FBI to go and seize ballots in Fulton County.
00:01:58.260When we look at the affidavit for the search warrant, we saw that it was based largely on debunked conspiracy theories.
00:02:03.820We will not see this affidavit for some time.
00:02:05.820likely it's it's been it's under seal that's the standard procedure for these kind of things
00:02:09.800so we don't know exactly what this is based on what facts they have but but that's what we're
00:02:15.360being told by officials that it's related to an immigration related investigation into her status
00:02:19.960in the country situation and and i think it's probably inappropriate to speculate too far ahead
00:02:25.080but i i do think that there's a potential certainly in minnesota for this to be a rallying point for
00:02:31.500Democrats, who, at least in that Senate race, have been a little bit on their back feet
00:02:36.180ever since the fraud scandal first came to national prominence earlier this year.
00:02:42.640Look, I think there's a real possibility that this could be a moment for Democrats to get
00:02:48.340their act together in Minnesota and rally behind their nominee for Senate, Peggy Flanagan,
00:02:53.220their nominee for governor, Amy Klobuchar. Of course, if this investigation proceeds and
00:02:57.380something truly damning comes out, it could have the opposite effect here. By and large, though,
00:03:02.240I don't really think voters are looking at, you know, a 20 year old or 30 year old immigration
00:03:07.480paperwork as the defining issue of this midterm in Minnesota or elsewhere.0.79
00:03:12.440Bribed. And the doctor. Well, he's not really a doctor. He's says he's a physician. Not
00:03:17.700can't. Matter of fact, if somebody came into his office and he tried to treat that patient,
00:03:21.840he'd go to jail. So listen to this guy and what he's trying to sell here today. You're going to
00:03:28.680find out that this guy is not what he says he is. He is actually selling the best con I think I've
00:03:35.440ever seen. This is the first round of that, and I can't wait to talk more about that.
00:03:40.740The Monday, 12 October, Year of Our Lord, 2026, we're going to talk this morning about being a
00:03:46.440enforcing function on all these frauds.
00:03:49.960We have no earthly idea who these people are.
00:07:21.480What's the process you see here going forward?
00:07:24.800Well, we'll see the probable cause statement come out eventually.
00:07:28.560and then you'll we'll be able to read for ourselves i'm seeing news reporting at foxnews.com
00:07:35.100and many other outlets picking up on this this uh appears to be an investigation potentially into
00:07:41.900elon omar's immigration fraud right she how she got to this country how she became naturalized as
00:07:49.200an american citizen if it's through fraudulent means you could see not only uh uh criminal
00:07:55.820charges, but you could also see a denaturalization process. You have to, there's a statute of
00:08:03.500limitations, and so it would have to be within the statute of limitations. I think she became
00:08:07.560an American citizen when she was 17 years old, but there's also some serious issues around her
00:08:16.240financial disclosure. She disclosed one year like $25 million in assets, and then the following
00:08:23.460year she corrected it where she could even have negative assets uh so that's a big swing from
00:08:30.10025 30 million dollars to almost nothing and then she gave zero explanation for why her
00:08:37.280financial disclosures changed so much um so uh there is there's some problems there there's been
00:08:44.080allegations of her marriage fraud, that she married her brother to commit immigration fraud
00:08:55.220there as well. I mean, again, these are all allegations. Nothing has been proved. This is
00:09:00.880simply the first step when you do a home raid like this. It's an important one. Home raids are very
00:09:07.500serious. If you have a judge, particularly a D.C. judge signing off on a home raid, that means it's
00:09:14.300more likely than not that evidence of a federal crime has been committed inside that home. So
00:09:21.640judges do not do home raids lately. Particularly federal judges in the progressive stronghold
00:09:29.840fortress of the D.C. circuit down there. Vice Roy, where do people go for it?
00:09:34.640Steve, I would say this very fast. Not only a D.C. judge signed up on this, but a D.C. judge signed up this on a member of Congress who has speech and debate clause immunity under the Constitution, meaning they're largely immune from prosecution for what they do or what they say in their official acts.
00:09:54.600So this is a very big deal that this home raid occurred, and it's showing that the Trump Justice Department, the Trump Department of Homeland Security, are taking seriously these potential crimes, and they're bringing accountability.
00:10:11.900I've been saying justice is coming, and today proves that justice is definitely coming.
00:10:16.420Omar, today, Mom, Donnie, tomorrow, Mike Davis, Article 3.
00:10:22.580Where do folks go to find out what you guys are working on and your social media, sir?
00:16:47.260Let's do a better certification than they do on the vote when they're having everybody vote over there.
00:16:51.440And, of course, this is all inextricably linked to the fraud that Steve Cortez has been showing you up in Maine and obviously in Minnesota.0.94
00:17:00.800If you like that fraud, then rally behind that lieutenant governor that's running, the one in the hajib every day.0.85
00:17:08.780McCabe, any other insights on this before we return to the president's travel?
00:22:06.440That's not true. I just had the flu and I feel much better. But it's a good reminder that you
00:22:11.760can't believe everything you read on the internet. President Trump said that you and Attorney General
00:22:17.600Ken Paxton should debate. He says that Paxton is ready, willing, and able to debate. What are your
00:22:23.500thoughts on that? I agree with President Trump. I think Ken Paxton should debate. The president's
00:22:28.800saying he should debate. Fox News has said he should debate. The people of Texas have said he
00:22:33.000should debate. And I think it's mysterious that Ken Paxton hasn't responded to a request for a
00:22:40.900debate in 85 days. I hear that people are getting really concerned about the attorney general. And
00:22:45.920you know, I've heard rumors that he has a rare medical condition that causes clinical levels
00:22:51.260of cowardice. So I know Ken Paxton has asked for proof of life for me. I'm asking for proof of
00:22:56.620spine from him. Oh, wow. Alfred E. Newman right there. What me worry. So Ren, what is it with
00:23:05.860this guy? I really want to compliment CBS. I know we're changing. They're really going to become
00:23:09.740this is almost as powerful as the ted koppel interview with me right to the uh the piercing
00:23:16.080questions um was it the story changes all the time okay we gotta we're gonna be a forcing function
00:23:23.320we're not gonna get off the uh where's the gimp been it's 12 days hennity's wrong it's not a week
00:23:29.640that reporter's wrong it's not a week it was 12 days he's got a different excuse all the time the0.65
00:23:34.080first time when he stiffed the people down in the rear grand valley is that he had to go to a dock
00:23:38.940in the box in dallas right he had to go there to to start the process now it's his primary care
00:23:46.020physician in austin texas what is with this guy we got to where the 12 missing days it's it's longer
00:23:53.560than the 18 minutes to turf nixon out of the white house we got to get to the bottom of this
00:23:58.180caroline rent you're right in that video he claims it was a week it was not a week
00:24:04.060It was 12 days. And from September 26, which was the last time he did a in-person campaign event in Texas, until October 9th in the afternoon when he showed up at a music festival, that's 12 days.
00:24:15.540So they keep trying to gaslight us about the amount of time.
00:24:18.740And also in that, you know, he claims he was working diligently from home.
00:24:22.400I call BS on that as well. His campaign also was silent for 12 days in addition to him being silent.
00:24:27.960So, like, what campaign work was he doing from home?
00:24:31.000Why wasn't he doing, you know, media interviews or different things from home?
00:24:35.680Not to mention, we had talked about how there had been trackers outside of his house and there was no activity of anyone going in or out of his home.
00:24:42.940I guess it's conceivable he could have been at his mother's house.
00:24:45.860He shares a bank account with his mom.
00:24:47.400So if he also ran to mommy's house to have her take care of him while he's sick, maybe that's the excuse there.
00:24:53.660He also in that video claims that on the September 30th Zoom, he said he went to a Dallas urgent care, which we said that didn't make sense.
00:25:00.760He had a New York City fundraiser on the 29th.
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00:30:18.600When the people in the jewel of the crown of this union, the great state of Texas, given what people have done since the time of Texas founding and what they've sacrificed and what they've gone through to build a powerhouse, are not going to turn over a U.S. Senate seat to a freak that nobody knows anything about.
00:30:44.080And that's where we get to the bottom of this.
00:30:46.620And, of course, the mainstream media, they're just going to be slobbering all over him.
00:39:32.460Fairfax County, Virginia, Arlington, Virginia, and making sure they turn out high propensity
00:39:37.280and vote for whatever Democrats are on the ticket in Virginia.
00:39:40.660We have a pretty good indication in New Jersey that Dems will do well in New Jersey, and
00:39:44.900I believe that New Jersey 7 is definitely a seat that they're favored to flip.
00:39:48.340That's one that we hold now. But looking down the Atlantic coast down to Florida, right now the Democrats, I sent over a graphic, the Democrats have a seven-point edge in mail-in voting.
00:40:00.360Now, people that don't understand the way these numbers historically shift may be concerned about that, but that seven-point edge.
00:40:07.040Now, this is from Data Republicans' website. This is a really good tracker that she made, and she's also got one very similar in North Carolina.
00:40:13.680Florida has a lot of mail-in votes. So in 2026 right now, the Democrats have a 7% turnout edge
00:40:20.200on mail-in voting. That is the exact same edge by percentage that they had at this point in 2024
00:40:25.800and the exact same edge that they had at this point in 2022. Now, baking in their Democrat
00:40:32.720favorable midterm effect, you should potentially have a smaller gap than that because the Republicans
00:40:37.060have added 400,000 plus registration advantage since November 24. But still, what this is shaping
00:40:42.960up to be when in-person early vote starts here within the next two weeks in Florida is Republicans
00:40:48.520should have a solid mail-in plus early voting turnout advantage going into election day,
00:40:54.320which will be overwhelmingly R. So when I look at Florida, I think the Republican statewide
00:40:59.360candidates, Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody, are on pace to win by margins very similar to 20,
00:41:04.960probably 2024, maybe not so much 22, given the nature of this midterm. So if Florida isn't
00:41:11.140showing you the early signs of a major Republican turnout disaster, I'm not so sure that you can
00:41:15.420expect all these white voters at the polls are missing to stay home. I want to go back,
00:41:21.160just hang on for a second. I want to go back to the polling and come to Florida, but on the polling,
00:41:25.840all the professionals and operatives I'm talking to are saying, hey, a lot of Republicans are just
00:41:31.820hanging up the phone, won't answer, are not going to participate because they believe it's a psyop.
00:41:36.500that's having an impact but also they can't book spaces for focus groups because there's so much
00:41:42.700activity going on they're having a very tough time uh getting even call centers have you heard that
00:41:49.060and how do you think that's impacting the numbers i mean are these they've always been off on polling
00:41:53.660of mag and the republicans do you think it's even more impacting it this year well you have a couple
00:42:00.360pollsters that are on the show a lot and richard barris and i communicate quite frequently uh mark
00:42:05.160Mitchell and I are not agreeing on so much anymore with methodology, but those guys will
00:42:09.220both tell you that there are response concerns that they have to potentially mitigate.
00:42:13.200Ten years ago in Wisconsin and states like that, that Trump flipped, you had an issue
00:42:18.300reaching Trump's base vote, people that will come out of the Northwoods once every 30 years
00:42:22.880to vote for somebody they feel is a generational candidate.
00:42:25.840So there are definitely response issues, but there's also the issue of response bias in
00:42:30.340an election in which certain voters are really primed to turnout. High propensity Democrats or
00:42:36.520independents that lean left to the college-educated group, those are the ones most likely to jump on
00:42:41.400a survey, especially these web-to-text kind of surveys that we have now. I have heard that some
00:42:47.500of these response rates on types of surveys like that are below 2%. In the old days, Gallup's polls
00:42:52.460were 40% response rates when they were calling everybody on landlines. So not getting a
00:42:57.560representative electorate is part of this. And then you have also the modeling issues. A good
00:43:01.780example, there's a number of accounts on X right now that are tracking early voting returns.
00:43:06.820In Ohio, the Democrats, when you combine their thresholds from 22 and 24 with the mail and
00:43:12.620in-person early vote, both combined, they're lagging their turnout substantially in the urban
00:43:17.580areas they need to win the state. So in 22, J.D. Vance won the senator's seat against a blue-collar
00:43:23.420them by about six points. They are lagging in Cleveland and Columbus and other places with
00:43:28.500their urban turning. Hang on for one second, Seth. We're going to take a short break. Mark
00:43:33.820Mitchell, trying to get Mark and Richard for later in the week. Got to hear from those two guys. Two
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00:46:58.840first off i just want your overview of florida once again because we had cortez on the northern
00:47:04.440front and voila the president's now going to alaska and montana going to lock down this
00:47:11.120district in montana the house district district of um uh to make sure we've got that in western
00:47:18.100montana and headquartered around kalispell he's going to be going to kalispell one of those
00:47:22.380beautiful parts of the country um and he's going to alaska that is a trip to to lock down that
00:47:28.060senate seat the northern flank or the northern front uh is coming together right uh tell me
00:47:35.240about florida because texas is coming that's going to be a dogfight and i think the reason
00:47:39.320talla rico is begging for a debate of which i don't think ken paxton is doing no need to debate
00:47:44.120him let's just expose him expose him let the people of texas make the decision there's nothing
00:47:49.220to debate with this kid here's what we need to do we need to find out everything about him about his
00:47:53.64012-day disappearance every day, every moment of the day. He's running for the Senate. They're
00:47:58.220going into Ken Paxton's closet. All they're doing is dumping on Ken ProPublica, a left-wing
00:48:03.160organization about every trip he took, his security detail, everything with his divorce.
00:48:08.240That's fine. Hey, he's running for the Senate. But let's do the same on Tallarico. We have to do it.
00:48:14.020They ain't going to do it. And you can't whine about it. So we're going to double and triple
00:48:18.320down on Tallarico. You think we're going to back off Tallarico? You are dead wrong. You know why?
00:48:22.440He's a freak and should not be representing the folks in the great state of Texas.0.95
00:48:29.140Seth Keschel, you're overall, you think Florida is a breakwater here that you there's no tsunami or no blue wave.0.87
00:48:36.500If you've got a big fight going up north that they're all in, you know, whether it's Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, Wisconsin, governorship, all that.
00:48:47.040And you add Florida to it. Your theory of the case is I don't see a tsunami, but we could still lose a bunch of seats here, sir.
00:48:55.220Well, Florida does does reflect the standard midterm dynamic of the president's party facing headwinds.
00:49:01.000Now, the question for determining the outcomes of these races is just how strong is that headwind?
00:49:06.020So Florida is showing right now a D plus seven mail-in ballot advantage, which matches the this point in 2024 and then this point in 2022.
00:49:14.360Given the three and a half point gain in voter registration statewide, more than 400,000 registrations, then yes, you would assume if it was at the exact same pace of partisan turnout, then Republicans would be tighter than D plus seven right now.
00:49:25.860But they're still on pace to have a turnout after mail-in and early voting period is complete to have a very strong Republican turnout advantage leading into Election Day.
00:49:34.260Now, those margins for Donald and Moody may not hit the Rubio DeSantis margins at 18 and 19 points, but if I were to have clicked a different button on her website and seen the change and shift by county, Miami and Broward and Palm Beach counties sit to the right of this point in 2022, the midterm.0.71
00:49:53.900That's a good sign that the new Florida 25 district that has been cut out that had major Trump gains with Venezuelans and Cubans is potentially flippable and playable for the GOP because the objective is here in Florida to win all the new House seats that have been carved up.
00:50:07.440Up until this point, I believe Florida 25 is definitely a decisive seat, probably slightly favoring Moskowitz, the Democrat, because I'm not sure in the midterm that the Republicans can hold all of Trump's gains.0.81
00:50:19.200But these turnout numbers give them an increasingly better shot every day.
00:50:22.260Looking at Ohio, I told you before the break that the urban areas, male plus early voting turnout, is below 2022 levels when they lost with a blue-collar dim Tim Ryan to J.D. Vance in the Senate race.
00:50:35.040So I don't think that Ohio is having a massive shift to the left.
00:50:38.260I think it's trending more like a Republican Indiana, more so than the Trump-lican states like Michigan or Pennsylvania.
00:50:44.800But on the case of Montana, it's an important thing that the president hits that and gets his base turnout.
00:50:49.920It's going to be a relatively inelastic electorate, like in AZ2 with Eli Crane.
00:50:54.800You have some native vote that's going to possibly come out for Dems.
00:50:57.520It's not easy to mobilize, thanks to the lack of extreme mail-in balloting in Montana.
00:51:02.560But they have the crazy Missoula vote, the university vote there, and the Dems are trying with a union guy, a labor guy, more so than a crazy woke white woman like they did in 24 when Zinke won by less than eight points.
00:51:14.120So that is why I have Montana won as a Republican leaner in a wave election.
00:53:11.440Lara Logan, Jim Rickards, all next in the War Room.
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